politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First wave of French second round polling gives it to Macron b

Mr. Bromptonaut, you're aware Muslims also practice circumcision? And that, sometimes, others not of either faith do likewise? [A surprisingly large number of American Christians are circumcised].

CommanderShepard said:

Sean_F said:

chestnut said:

Casino_Royale said:

Has anyone factored in how EU pronouncements over the next 6.5 weeks might help May?

They are agreeing their initial negotiating position by the end of the month. I suspect that will provide something for May to rally the troops behind that she can make hay with throughout the (month of) May.

I don't see it making much difference.

The Tories are essentially having a free run at the 55% who voted Leave in England and Wales.

Labour, the Lib Dems, the Greens and Plaid are in a bidding war for the 45% who voted Remain.

The SNP have a near free run at the Sindies 44%, while the Tories are gradually winning the battle with Labour and the Libs for the Unionist 56%.

The referendum divides are overwhelmingly benefitting the Tories.

The Conservatives are in a very sweet spot. Lots of Leave voters are converging on them, and they retain plenty of their Remainers.

The interesting thing is, it has happened by accident. Accident of Cameron and Osborne not been able to win their own referendum. Then May becoming leader by virtual coronation. May who is a politician who most people have heard off, but don't know much about. What they do know is "She sounds like one of us and believes in what we believe."

Yes, all unplanned. Could unravel a bit, but right now it's looking great for her.

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

I got 1/8 for this yesterday morning. Not the greatest return but not bad in 2 weeks.

I think that Le Pen on 40% is indeed shameful for France and its liberal reputation. The FN strike me as more like the BNP than UKIP. I genuinely don't believe that a party like that would get anything like that share of the vote in the UK and we are a better place for it. People knocking our great country because they don't like our decision on Brexit really need a better sense of proportion.

Whether Macron proves to be good for France only time will sanguine.

The hyperbole about the UK since the Leave vote has truly been something to behold.

Our main centre-right party has now absorbed all threats on its Right

The Conservative Party truly is an extraordinary (and ruthless) machine. But it is moderate.

There are lessons there for similar centre-right parties throughout Europe.

There's nothing moderate about a party that won't distance itself from those who call judges the enemies of the people and who describe citizens who disagree with them as saboteurs.

Strictly speaking they cannot control the papers, but TMay clearly encourages that talk given her speech calling for the election and warning the judges. Very poor.

kle4 said:

Obviously there are caveats and the situation remains tight, but the sindy poll truly has cheered me up a bit. Let's hope we get more like that.

I think that Brexit will end up strengthening the Union, not weakening it.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. D, there will come a day when May's opponents stop killing themselves and she has to do more than simply step over their fallen bodies.

But it isn't today.

Can there ever have been an easier ascent to power?
Gordon had to wage a cold war within labour for near on a decade.

notme said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

I got 1/8 for this yesterday morning. Not the greatest return but not bad in 2 weeks.

I think that Le Pen on 40% is indeed shameful for France and its liberal reputation. The FN strike me as more like the BNP than UKIP. I genuinely don't believe that a party like that would get anything like that share of the vote in the UK and we are a better place for it. People knocking our great country because they don't like our decision on Brexit really need a better sense of proportion.
main sanguine.

The hyperbole about the UK since the Leave vote has truly been something to behold.

Our main centre-right party has now absorbed all threats on its Right flank, most of the main centre 3rd party and is about to eat a slice of the centre-left too.

The Conservative Party truly is an extraordinary (and ruthless) machine. But it is moderate.

There are lessons there for similar centre-right parties throughout Europe.

There's nothing moderate about a party that won't distance itself from those who call judges the enemies of the people and who describe citizens who disagree with them as saboteurs.

There's nothing moderate about a party that didn't write a newspaper headline.

He continues to get more hysterical by the day.

dyedwoolie said:

Good morning politicos. Was playing with projections last night trying to come up with most unlikely gains of the night on current trends. I'm thinking London if the poor 2015 relatively for the Tories unwinds AND they move as the polls show on top, could somewhere like Dulwich go? I'm trying to find Labour's firewall and it really does look about seat 120.

Looking for Labour's firewall? Tricky.

Have you tried St Petersburg?

kle4 said:

Penddu said:

Typical...There is rarely a Welsh thread on PB and whenever there is I am travelling somewhere and miss it.... So some belated commnets::

Firstly - Wow...expected something like this but not as dramatic. But some more detailed thoughts...:

This poll was taken (purely conincidentally) just when the GE announcement was made, and the media was full of confident strident Teresa in comparison to bumbling Comrade Corbyn. I expect the gap to narrow.

Specifically with the Local elections coming first there should be gains for Plaid and LDs which will get their faces back in public domain and identify locally where there is a non-Conservative option to Corbyn.

Plaid and to a lesser extent LDs will get more TV coverage during GE itself because of fair coverage rules. UKIP will also but the more that BBC wheel out Neil Hamilton the better.

Most importantly I expect Welsh Labour to distance themselves from UK Labour and wheel out cuddly Carwyn at every opportunity. I would not even rule out a mass resignation of WLab altogether!!

So barring any unexpected moves I would expect Welsh result to become more like:

Lab 33% 18 seats
Con 33% 17 Seats
PC 15% 4 Seats
LD 10% 1 seat
UKIP 5% 0
Others 4% 0

Still undeniably good for Conservatives

Seems like a sound take. Things may not turn out as amazingly good for the Tories as indicated right now, but it still seems very good.

Frankly if the Tories manage to fight Labour to an effective draw in Wales it would be amazing for them. Bit like Labour taking about the same number of seats in say East Anglia. If anything like this came to pass I'm sure they would need smelling salts at both Labour and Tory HQ's if for differing reasons.

Wales is without any shadow getting less monolithic as its demographic and employment patterns have changed in the generation(s) since heavy industry was largely replaced by an economy that looks more well (northern) English. The nearest parallel is I think The NE of England, with the added spice that 20% of people speak another language which provides a distinct dynamic in about 10-12 seats. There is a long way to go, it's one poll, and there will doubtless be a large number of folk who find they just cannot go through with actually putting an X in a box next to "Conservative" in somewhere like Cardiff South. Too many grandfathers spinning in too many graves.

I will be keeping a very very close eye on where the PM goes exactly today as she's in S Wales. That might tell us their initial thinking.

SimonStClare said:

‘That Woman’ will rue the day she decided to play politics north of the border...

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/856651768838664192?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/4813/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-farage-might-be-giving-ge2017-a-miss-but-expect-to-see-him-on/p1

I don't think Nicola would have gotten involved in this IndyRef2 stuff if she'd had her way...

Alex has done her up like a kipper...

Floater said:

CarlottaVance said:

Casino_Royale said:

Has anyone factored in how EU pronouncements over the next 6.5 weeks might help May?

They are agreeing their initial negotiating position by the end of the month. I suspect that will provide something for May to rally the troops behind that she can make hay with throughout the (month of) May.

Labour's helping by unilaterally guaranteeing EU citizens in the UK's rights without any reciprocal promise for UK citizens in the EU.

Wonder how that will go down with the Brits abroad?

Have Labour found another way to lose votes?

I wonder how it will go down with Brits at home.

Weak, weak, weak.

Brits at home specifically voted to put the rights of Brits abroad at risk. Those advocating Leave, however, also said that the rights of EU citizens here should be guaranteed.

Floater said:

My god, I thought I had misheard him but

Labour suggests UK could stay in EU if Brexit deal not good enough

(Telegraph)

Ok - hands up who thinks that is a sensible negotiating position - or helpful for them to retain working class voters

As Big John correctly identified I'm not sure anything Labour says really matters now... It's already over...

Floater said:

My god, I thought I had misheard him but

Labour suggests UK could stay in EU if Brexit deal not good enough

(Telegraph)

Ok - hands up who thinks that is a sensible negotiating position - or helpful for them to retain working class voters

The alternative stance is leaving the EU even if the deal is a really crap one. Or not getting a deal and then tanking the economy by leaving with no deal in place. Which ones are the Tories advocating?

TGOHF said:

scotslass said:

The point remains why are posters on political betting, as oppposed to a unionist press, so anxious not to recognise that the findings of the Kantar survey has been overtaken by three more recent polls?

The passing of peak Nat seems to upset some more than others.

Malcolm has been v quiet this am...awaiting o orders how to spin it no doubt...

"Betting on last Sunday’s winner looks like free money"

I wrote on here yesterday that too many people confuse VALUE with what they WANT to happen. I've no idea who will win and have no interest, but reading this thread will explain why there are far more skint punters than bookies.

dyedwoolie said:

another_richard said:

dyedwoolie said:

another_richard said:

dyedwoolie said:

Good morning politicos. Was playing with projections last night trying to come up with most unlikely gains of the night on current trends. I'm thinking London if the poor 2015 relatively for the Tories unwinds AND they move as the polls show on top, could somewhere like Dulwich go? I'm trying to find Labour's firewall and it really does look about seat 120.

Lots of posh lefty and inner city black voters in a strongly Remain seat - doesn't sound likely.

I know right but there will be a jaw dropper somewhere

I can see the Conservatives winning Vauxhall with 35% of the vote perhaps.

That would certainly count as jaw dropping. Decapitation Of Keir Starmer would constitute a genuine Portillo moment on many levels. Can't see Dobbos stomping ground going blue though!

I think Starmer's majority might actually go up. There is no way on earth he is going to lose. You can quote me on that :-)

Theuniondivvie said:

TNS tipping point, subsequent polls outliers obviously.

https://twitter.com/scottynational/status/856772646150840320

TGOHF said:

scotslass said:

The point remains why are posters on political betting, as oppposed to a unionist press, so anxious not to recognise that the findings of the Kantar survey has been overtaken by three more recent polls?

The passing of peak Nat seems to upset some more than others.

And then there's the demographic time bomb that may have done for Labour in Wales....coming to Scotland in the not too distant future....

scotslass said:

The Screaming Eagles

Not only do I know a bit about Scottish polling I used to work for Systems Three many moons ago as a part time job. In these far off days before the internet we had to post our quota of interviews back to base! However they were still more up to date than the current Kantar version!

There is no excuse during an election for presenting a poll as new information when it started surveying ONE MONTH ago and no excuse in the days of electronic media for taking two weeks from survey finish to publication.

Thus I suggest that given we have had THREE POLLS since showing a much different position then we should conclude that Kantar have produced an outlier. In my day this sometimes happened with Systems Three because the political stuff was list in a huge consumer survey about soap powder etc. I don't know if that is still the position with Kantar but since no newspaper seems to be paying for it I suspect that it is.

To repeat three polls since Kantar have shown independence support rising to 49 per cent, 45 per cent and 47 per cent from their own previous surveys while BMG for the Herald showed support for a referendum in the Surgeon timetable at 47 per cent not 27 per cent.

The point remains why are posters on political betting, as oppposed to a unionist press, so anxious not to recognise that the findings of the Kantar survey has been overtaken by three more recent polls?

3 polls this week have Yes at 43%, 40% and 37% ie below 2014 and the SNP is on 43% also well below the 50% it got at the 2015 general election

@michaelsavage: Labour MPs coming up with own policies in #GE2017. @ChukaUmunna backs staying in single market, @RachelReevesMP backs overdraft charges cap.

dyedwoolie said:

SouthamObserver said:

Floater said:

CarlottaVance said:

Casino_Royale said:

Has anyone factored in how EU pronouncements over the next 6.5 weeks might help May?

They are agreeing their initial negotiating position by the end of the month. I suspect that will provide something for May to rally the troops behind that she can make hay with throughout the (month of) May.

Labour's helping by unilaterally guaranteeing EU citizens in the UK's rights without any reciprocal promise for UK citizens in the EU.

Wonder how that will go down with the Brits abroad?

Have Labour found another way to lose votes?

I wonder how it will go down with Brits at home.

Weak, weak, weak.

Brits at home specifically voted to put the rights of Brits abroad at risk. Those advocating Leave, however, also said that the rights of EU citizens here should be guaranteed.

Yes but in rawest terms people in the here and now will hear rights for foreigners no protection for Britons. That's how things will be framed and it plays in to what people want to hear right now. Labour could detail fully fund a 10k handout to all citizens and it would be framed as a vote loser. The electorate want to believe labour are a busted flush. Harsh but that's how it is. Tories 95-97 redux

Totally agree. But on this Labour is right.

geoffw said:

Macron is “continuity Hollande”, and his campaign could unravel if Hollande’s backdoor influence in the first round is exposed (though it won't be by the French press of course).

One by one, obstacles to Macron’s succession were ruthlessly eliminated and Hollande’s fingerprints are everywhere.
Days after winning the Republican party primary, François Fillon, once Macron’s most dangerous potential opponent, was put under investigation for having put his wife and children on the payroll of the state, with little evidence that they did much if any work.
The evidence against Fillon appears to have come directly from a secretive cell within the Finance Ministry, a Cabinet Noir, with access to the tax returns of both Fillon and his Welsh wife, Penelope. These documents found their way to the investigating magistrates, who pounced. Only the naive can imagine that the magistrates are unmotivated by their political sympathies, especially after it was revealed that their union had compiled an enemies list of right wing politicians targeted for prosecution, and had even posted their pictures on the wall of their Paris headquarters.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/real-winner-frances-presidential-election-francois-hollande/

The Brexit right have really taken Macron's surge very badly indeed. They need to get over it.

Ishmael_Z said:

RobD said:

kle4 said:

CommanderShepard said:

DavidL said:

RobD said:

SimonStClare said:

‘That Woman’ will rue the day she decided to play politics north of the border...

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/856651768838664192?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/4813/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-farage-might-be-giving-ge2017-a-miss-but-expect-to-see-him-on/p1

Wasn't there a poll also saying only 25% supported her call for IndyRef2: The Return of the Nat?

That polling cheers me up so much I am almost scared to believe it.

I still quiet bring myself to believe the Tories will get more than 3 seats in Scotland

12 seems crazy, 2-3 looks very plausible, beyond that they'd be in ecstasy.

Is there even a word for increasing something twelve-fold?

Dozening?

Dodecorating

Omnium said:

RobD said:

kle4 said:

CommanderShepard said:

DavidL said:

RobD said:

SimonStClare said:

‘That Woman’ will rue the day she decided to play politics north of the border...

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/856651768838664192?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/4813/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-farage-might-be-giving-ge2017-a-miss-but-expect-to-see-him-on/p1

Wasn't there a poll also saying only 25% supported her call for IndyRef2: The Return of the Nat?

That polling cheers me up so much I am almost scared to believe it.

I still quiet bring myself to believe the Tories will get more than 3 seats in Scotland

12 seems crazy, 2-3 looks very plausible, beyond that they'd be in ecstasy.

Is there even a word for increasing something twelve-fold?

'Duodecuple' apparently.

Now that's a word I want to hear out of Dimbleby's mouth..

another_richard said:

Razedabode said:

I absolutely get the need for EU citizens to be guaranteed a right to stay. What I'm not so sure about is a unilateral approach as suggested by Labour, when we have absolutely no guarantees from the EU. The EU can also unilaterally agree these rights - it hasnt done so, yet seems to escape all sorts of criticism of the kind levelled at May.

Blair giving up the Rebate in return for vague talk about reforming the CAP can be used to counter ideas of unilateral concessions.

It's not a concession though - it's anchoring the negotiations. The EU's default position will be that if you want one thing to stay the same, everything else has to stay the same - the four freedoms are indivisible. By unilaterally drawing a line in the sand on free movement, we would not be conceding something, but instead attempting to preempt the negotiations.

Trolling the archives i see that a TNS poll on Sindy published in September 2013 had a headline Yes figure of 34% (25% with DKs included), a 62% certain to vote figure and the majority of respondents saying they voted Labour at the 2011 Holyrood election.

rottenborough said:

As I was saying earlier:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/856783448614342657

Somebody on this site suggested recently that May should follow Napolean's dictum and not distract her opponent from making mistakes. They proposed she should take a six-week walking holiday whilst Corbym did her work for her. I think they were joking, but maybe she should consider it seriously.

Perhaps that's why she's going to Wales. The Brecon Beacons are beautiful this time of year.

SouthamObserver said:

geoffw said:

Macron is “continuity Hollande”, and his campaign could unravel if Hollande’s backdoor influence in the first round is exposed (though it won't be by the French press of course).

One by one, obstacles to Macron’s succession were ruthlessly eliminated and Hollande’s fingerprints are everywhere.
Days after winning the Republican party primary, François Fillon, once Macron’s most dangerous potential opponent, was put under investigation for having put his wife and children on the payroll of the state, with little evidence that they did much if any work.
The evidence against Fillon appears to have come directly from a secretive cell within the Finance Ministry, a Cabinet Noir, with access to the tax returns of both Fillon and his Welsh wife, Penelope. These documents found their way to the investigating magistrates, who pounced. Only the naive can imagine that the magistrates are unmotivated by their political sympathies, especially after it was revealed that their union had compiled an enemies list of right wing politicians targeted for prosecution, and had even posted their pictures on the wall of their Paris headquarters.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/real-winner-frances-presidential-election-francois-hollande/

The Brexit right have really taken Macron's surge very badly indeed. They need to get over it.

Macron is bad news for Brexit.

geoffw said:

SouthamObserver said:

geoffw said:

Macron is “continuity Hollande”, and his campaign could unravel if Hollande’s backdoor influence in the first round is exposed (though it won't be by the French press of course).

One by one, obstacles to Macron’s succession were ruthlessly eliminated and Hollande’s fingerprints are everywhere.
Days after winning the Republican party primary, François Fillon, once Macron’s most dangerous potential opponent, was put under investigation for having put his wife and children on the payroll of the state, with little evidence that they did much if any work.
The evidence against Fillon appears to have come directly from a secretive cell within the Finance Ministry, a Cabinet Noir, with access to the tax returns of both Fillon and his Welsh wife, Penelope. These documents found their way to the investigating magistrates, who pounced. Only the naive can imagine that the magistrates are unmotivated by their political sympathies, especially after it was revealed that their union had compiled an enemies list of right wing politicians targeted for prosecution, and had even posted their pictures on the wall of their Paris headquarters.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/real-winner-frances-presidential-election-francois-hollande/

The Brexit right have really taken Macron's surge very badly indeed. They need to get over it.

Macron is bad news for Brexit.

If he is bad news for Brexit, then Le Pen would be an unmitigated disaster!

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

another_richard said:

Razedabode said:

I absolutely get the need for EU citizens to be guaranteed a right to stay. What I'm not so sure about is a unilateral approach as suggested by Labour, when we have absolutely no guarantees from the EU. The EU can also unilaterally agree these rights - it hasnt done so, yet seems to escape all sorts of criticism of the kind levelled at May.

Blair giving up the Rebate in return for vague talk about reforming the CAP can be used to counter ideas of unilateral concessions.

It's not a concession though - it's anchoring the negotiations. The EU's default position will be that if you want one thing to stay the same, everything else has to stay the same - the four freedoms are indivisible. By unilaterally drawing a line in the sand on free movement, we would not be conceding something, but instead attempting to preempt the negotiations.

Turned out to be utterly meaningless in the end though, didn't it?

The situation with Blair's haggling over the rebate was very different.

Peter_the_Punter said:

dyedwoolie said:

Good morning politicos. Was playing with projections last night trying to come up with most unlikely gains of the night on current trends. I'm thinking London if the poor 2015 relatively for the Tories unwinds AND they move as the polls show on top, could somewhere like Dulwich go? I'm trying to find Labour's firewall and it really does look about seat 120.

Looking for Labour's firewall? Tricky.

Have you tried St Petersburg?

Start with Liverpool Walton . After that it gets a bit more speculative.....

isam said:

The delusion of those who think the referendum result might be ignored continues

Given that no sane person on the face of the earth believes that the Tories will not win the election, it is a bit of a stretch to claim that anyone serious believes the referendum result might be ignored. It is legitimate, though, to question a leave at all costs strategy that might see us inflict significant long-term harm on the economy and, more importantly, on millions of people who are already struggling.

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

The delusion of those who think the referendum result might be ignored continues

Given that no sane person on the face of the earth believes that the Tories will not win the election, it is a bit of a stretch to claim that anyone serious believes the referendum result might be ignored. It is legitimate, though, to question a leave at all costs strategy that might see us inflict significant long-term harm on the economy and, more importantly, on millions of people who are already struggling.

Who said the people believing it were serious?

It's pretty clear now that UKIP was pretty much run and kept afloat by two things. The EU question, and the 'appeal' of Farage. Both are gone.

UKIP look nigh on dead and done, as simple as that.

TheScreamingEagles said:

May local election forecast (change since 2013)

Rallings and Thrasher

CON +115 LD +85 LAB -75 UKIP -105

So much for the LD surge. Beaten by the governing party.

Reading a bit from someone who is well connected and gave me an excellent betting tip about Illford North in 2015.

When the Tories heard Corbyn was doing Marr they cleared their Monday media grid.

Normal rules do not apply.

TheScreamingEagles said:

REVISED Rallings and Thrasher NEV projections (change on 2013):

CON 35 (+9)
LAB 29 (=)
LD 21 (+8)
UKIP 8 (-14)

Given the current national polling I find it hard to imagine that Labour will maintain their vote at 2013 levels in the locals. Are there any locals markets anywhere?

Slackbladder said:

It's pretty clear now that UKIP was pretty much run and kept afloat by two things. The EU question, and the 'appeal' of Farage. Both are gone.

UKIP look nigh on dead and done, as simple as that.

There's also no apparent taste for a bash the establishment option this time. They are headed back to their core vote of 3% plus a few hangers on from high water 2015

From the Downing Street confidential files, 5th May 1983:

MT: So, my friend, it is the election next month.

JC: Yes.

MT: And you have managed to complete the first stage of your task: to gain the candidature for Islington North?

JC: Yes ma'am, overwhelmingly.

MT: Good, good. (Shuffles in her handbag and checks her makeup in a mirror). I called you in here to conform you know the mission.

JC: I am to destroy the Labour party.

MT: Not destroy. Annihilate. Eradicate.

JC: But if I may, ma'am, how? I will be just one MP.

MT: Oh, do keep up JC! They said you were one of our brightest agents!

JC: It seems an impossible task ma'am. I'll be just one MP against many.

MT: Just one male MP, you mean. It's not as though Labour will ever elect a female leader!

(laughter)

MT: No, we are playing the long game. One of my predecessors put the current Labour leader in place, and he's doing a fine job in destroying his party. It's really a sterling job. Of course I've been helped by the deal I did with the General over that bit of nonsense last year. (winks)

(more laughter)

MT: No, we have to play the long game. As good as the present incumbent is, he's not performed well enough. The Labour Party will arise, and will become a power. We have plans to stifle their popularity: perhaps a war in a far-off country, perhaps over oil? Iran - no, that's America's territory. How about Iraq? Yes, that'll do. We'll wait for a really popular Labour PM to come along, and drop the WMD-bomb. Not a real bomb, obviously.

JC: Not yet, ma'am!

(more laughter)

MT: And you will, of course, be against the war. You will be a figurehead of the far-left of the party, along with agent Benn. You'll bide your time, creeping amongst the shadows, building support. We all know what the far-left are like: the more stupid, the more implausible the policy, the more they like it!

JC: I've had an idea, ma'am. How about ballistic missile submarines without any missiles?

MT: Oh I say! That's rather excellent! Perhaps you are as bright as MI5 claim.

JC: Thank you, ma'am. So I wait, for what?

MT: For the moment when a popular Labour leader mucks up - with a little help from us, of course, but they always do muck up in the end. It's in their genes. You can help: undermine them at every opportunity; vote against them: the best thing is they'll expect you to do it!

(starts to file her claws)

MT: And then, at the right moment, strike! Go for the leadership! Become leader of the Labour party and make them unelectable! Destroy them! Annihilate them in Scotland! Obliterate them in Wales! Smash them in the cities! Make another Labour government an impossibility!

JC: Very good, ma'am. But how about the alliance?

MT: (laughs). Oh don't worry, we have a plan for them as well! The thing with the dog worked well, didn't it?

RobD said:

geoffw said:

SouthamObserver said:

geoffw said:

Macron is “continuity Hollande”, and his campaign could unravel if Hollande’s backdoor influence in the first round is exposed (though it won't be by the French press of course).

One by one, obstacles to Macron’s succession were ruthlessly eliminated and Hollande’s fingerprints are everywhere.
Days after winning the Republican party primary, François Fillon, once Macron’s most dangerous potential opponent, was put under investigation for having put his wife and children on the payroll of the state, with little evidence that they did much if any work.
The evidence against Fillon appears to have come directly from a secretive cell within the Finance Ministry, a Cabinet Noir, with access to the tax returns of both Fillon and his Welsh wife, Penelope. These documents found their way to the investigating magistrates, who pounced. Only the naive can imagine that the magistrates are unmotivated by their political sympathies, especially after it was revealed that their union had compiled an enemies list of right wing politicians targeted for prosecution, and had even posted their pictures on the wall of their Paris headquarters.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/real-winner-frances-presidential-election-francois-hollande/

The Brexit right have really taken Macron's surge very badly indeed. They need to get over it.

Macron is bad news for Brexit.

If he is bad news for Brexit, then Le Pen would be an unmitigated disaster!

Sorry, Rob, don't quite follow the logic.

Le Pen is anti-EU, so her election would be a serious blow to it, no? So how would that be a disaster for Brexit? Doesn't she just add her name to the list of prominent anti-Eu leaders, such as Trump and Putin?

Peter_the_Punter said:

RobD said:

geoffw said:

SouthamObserver said:

geoffw said:

Macron is “continuity Hollande”, and his campaign could unravel if Hollande’s backdoor influence in the first round is exposed (though it won't be by the French press of course).

One by one, obstacles to Macron’s succession were ruthlessly eliminated and Hollande’s fingerprints are everywhere.
Days after winning the Republican party primary, François Fillon, once Macron’s most dangerous potential opponent, was put under investigation for having put his wife and children on the payroll of the state, with little evidence that they did much if any work.
The evidence against Fillon appears to have come directly from a secretive cell within the Finance Ministry, a Cabinet Noir, with access to the tax returns of both Fillon and his Welsh wife, Penelope. These documents found their way to the investigating magistrates, who pounced. Only the naive can imagine that the magistrates are unmotivated by their political sympathies, especially after it was revealed that their union had compiled an enemies list of right wing politicians targeted for prosecution, and had even posted their pictures on the wall of their Paris headquarters.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/real-winner-frances-presidential-election-francois-hollande/

The Brexit right have really taken Macron's surge very badly indeed. They need to get over it.

Macron is bad news for Brexit.

If he is bad news for Brexit, then Le Pen would be an unmitigated disaster!

Sorry, Rob, don't quite follow the logic.

Le Pen is anti-EU, so her election would be a serious blow to it, no? So how would that be a disaster for Brexit? Doesn't she just add her name to the list of prominent anti-Eu leaders, such as Trump and Putin?

Negotiating an exit deal is going to be hard enough. Negotiating one while France is also agitating to leave would be far worse.

@JosiasJessop - very good

JosiasJessop said:

From the Downing Street confidential files, 5th May 1983:

MT: So, my friend, it is the election next month.

JC: Yes.

MT: And you have managed to complete the first stage of your task: to gain the candidature for Islington North?

JC: Yes ma'am, overwhelmingly.

MT: Good, good. (Shuffles in her handbag and checks her makeup in a mirror). I called you in here to conform you know the mission.

JC: I am to destroy the Labour party.

MT: Not destroy. Annihilate. Eradicate.

JC: But if I may, ma'am, how? I will be just one MP.

MT: Oh, do keep up JC! They said you were one of our brightest agents!

JC: It seems an impossible task ma'am. I'll be just one MP against many.

MT: Just one male MP, you mean. It's not as though Labour will ever elect a female leader!

(laughter)

MT: No, we are playing the long game. One of my predecessors put the current Labour leader in place, and he's doing a fine job in destroying his party. It's really a sterling job. Of course I've been helped by the deal I did with the General over that bit of nonsense last year. (winks)

(more laughter)

MT: No, we have to play the long game. As good as the present incumbent is, he's not performed well enough. The Labour Party will arise, and will become a power. We have plans to stifle their popularity: perhaps a war in a far-off country, perhaps over oil? Iran - no, that's America's territory. How about Iraq? Yes, that'll do. We'll wait for a really popular Labour PM to come along, and drop the WMD-bomb. Not a real bomb, obviously.

JC: Not yet, ma'am!

(more laughter)

MT: And you will, of course, be against the war. You will be a figurehead of the far-left of the party, along with agent Benn. You'll bide your time, creeping amongst the shadows, building support. We all know what the far-left are like: the more stupid, the more implausible the policy, the more they like it!

JC: I've had an idea, ma'am. How about ballistic missile submarines without any missiles?

MT: Oh I say! That's rather excellent! Perhaps you are as bright as MI5 claim.

JC: Thank you, ma'am. So I wait, for what?

MT: For the moment when a popular Labour leader mucks up - with a little help from us, of course, but they always do muck up in the end. It's in their genes. You can help: undermine them at every opportunity; vote against them: the best thing is they'll expect you to do it!

(starts to file her claws)

MT: And then, at the right moment, strike! Go for the leadership! Become leader of the Labour party and make them unelectable! Destroy them! Annihilate them in Scotland! Obliterate them in Wales! Smash them in the cities! Make another Labour government an impossibility!

JC: Very good, ma'am. But how about the alliance?

MT: (laughs). Oh don't worry, we have a plan for them as well! The thing with the dog worked well, didn't it?

TheScreamingEagles said:

murali_s said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

REVISED Rallings and Thrasher NEV projections (change on 2013):

CON 35 (+9)
LAB 29 (=)
LD 21 (+8)
UKIP 8 (-14)

What does NEV mean? Is it something like if L 40, C 20, LD 20 in London then L 30, C 55, LD 15 Nationally?

National equivalent share of the vote.

Basically what would the VI look like if there was a general election based on the result of the locals.

Thanks TSE. So Labour only only 6 % behind? Wow!

Laughable as the concept may be, Sunderland Central to go to a recount Tctc about 12.30 election night?

dyedwoolie said:

Laughable as the concept may be, Sunderland Central to go to a recount Tctc about 12.30 election night?

The Sunderland seats will tell us right from the start of Election Night just how bad it's going to be for Labour...

GIN1138 said:

dyedwoolie said:

Laughable as the concept may be, Sunderland Central to go to a recount Tctc about 12.30 election night?

The Sunderland seats will tell us right from the start of Election night just how bad it's going to be for Labour...

Exit Poll should. Was pretty good last time.

GIN1138 said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

SouthamObserver said:

geoffw said:

Macron is “continuity Hollande”, and his campaign could unravel if Hollande’s backdoor influence in the first round is exposed (though it won't be by the French press of course).

One by one, obstacles to Macron’s succession were ruthlessly eliminated and Hollande’s fingerprints are everywhere.
Days after winning the Republican party primary, François Fillon, once Macron’s most dangerous potential opponent, was put under investigation for having put his wife and children on the payroll of the state, with little evidence that they did much if any work.
The evidence against Fillon appears to have come directly from a secretive cell within the Finance Ministry, a Cabinet Noir, with access to the tax returns of both Fillon and his Welsh wife, Penelope. These documents found their way to the investigating magistrates, who pounced. Only the naive can imagine that the magistrates are unmotivated by their political sympathies, especially after it was revealed that their union had compiled an enemies list of right wing politicians targeted for prosecution, and had even posted their pictures on the wall of their Paris headquarters.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/real-winner-frances-presidential-election-francois-hollande/

The Brexit right have really taken Macron's surge very badly indeed. They need to get over it.

His election would make the demise of the EU appear a little less likely. Since its collapse would be one of the few plausible outcomes that would make Brexit appear in hindsight a sensible decision, you can see why he's a disappointment to them.

I think the expectation has always been that the political union of the "core" EU nations (France, Germany, etc.) Is not going to change anytime soon.

The fate of the wider EU is very much still up for grabs though...

Yes, and who knows, Gin, one day it may revert to a predominantly trade and economic union comprising no more than a dozen or so countries with broadly similar profiles - i.e. something close to what I and many others expected back in its early days, when the UK was being begged to join.

Still wouldn't be a bad thing, in my opinion, but we are where we are.....