politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP’s collapse gives huge boost to CON in Wales. Now 10% ahea
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She does sound like Ed Miliband in a skirt. I've been deeply unimpressed by her so far this campaign. The energy price stuff is just horrible. Rubbish when it was proposed by Labour and rubbish now when proposed by someone who purports to be a Conservative.SouthamObserver said:
With May now recycling Labour policies from its 2015 election manifesto, you do have to wonder if there are any serious thinkers in any political party.Casino_Royale said:
Their pitch to the country was just as crap: vacuous Blairism-plus, ContinuityBrown and I'maScouserwhowenttoCambridgeandhasneverkissedaTory.Scott_P said:
They were pitching at the country. not the membership.Casino_Royale said:Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?
Pathetic.
You can argue that was dumb, as it cost them the leadership, but ti would have given them a chance now.
Unlike Corbyn.
The bigger mistake was not resigning the whip when he stayed after the vote of no confidence.
Where are the serious thinkers in Labour?
Are there any?
The big mistake(s) Labour have made is to take almost all their voters outside the core cities for granted, ceased to make themselves relevant in an era where There is No Money Left, maintained a total tin ear for the concept of nationhood, and relied almost exclusively on the cuts the Tories have made to do all the hard work for them.
Corbyn could fall under a bus tomorrow, and none of that would go away.0 -
I'm certain it's a strategy. The simple fact is that an election characterised in people's minds as May vs Corbyn looks likely to be better for the Conservatives than one characterised as Conservative vs Labour (I think they'd win either, but the former is better for them).ToryJim said:
The most interesting thing is not the policy but that it's being presented as Theresa May not Conservatives doing it. Think it's a strategy.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126
Anyone know the detail behind this yet?
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More votes than in 1992 ?dr_spyn said:Labour conceding defeat might be at earlier this time round.
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/856559822644404228
Not for Labour there isn't.0 -
Ukip Vote Share
Yesterday I mentioned the 1/4 Ladbrokes were offering on UKIP vote share under 10%. Just checked and can't find that market now never mind those odds. Wish I'd got more on.0 -
Well the point is maybe there should have been MORE Cameron and LESS Tory in 2015 literature. However both Ruth and May are trying to park tanks on Labour/SNP lawns, where the Tory brand isn't as strong. To say the least. Whereas the 2015 approach was not really that.RobD said:
I'm guessing this is a reflection of polling/focus groups.TheWhiteRabbit said:
The Ruth Davidson model.kle4 said:
Good spot.ToryJim said:
The most interesting thing is not the policy but that it's being presented as Theresa May not Conservatives doing it. Think it's a strategy.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126
Anyone know the detail behind this yet?
Funny, we were told Cameron's popularity was the only thing keeping the Tories afloat.0 -
EdM was a colossus compared with Corbyn, and Brown was a good deal better than EdM. Hence my confidence that, even if some black swan appears to set the Tories back, I can't see Labour possibly doing as well even as Brown's 29% in 2010.SouthamObserver said:
Ed was crap, but he was focused on the mainstream and on winning power. From time to time he came up with some very eye-catching policies, which the Tories rubbished and subsequently stole. That Ed stands head and shoulders above Corbyn, but was the second worst Labour leader since WW2 tells you all you need to know. Nick Palmer backed them both, I believe ;-)Black_Rook said:
That Ed Miliband couldn't make a very similar policy fly, but the Tories think Theresa May can, speaks volumes about the relative credibility of both these leaders and their parties.kle4 said:
Only that Ed Miliband got there first.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126
Anyone know the detail behind this yet?
That, and the fact that May feels that, whilst she can't quite get away with anything, she has an awful lot of political space in which to write her own agenda.
If you take that as a given, and then look at the Liberal Democrats flatlining away, you have to wonder how it would be possible for the Conservatives *NOT* to win a handsome majority.
That said, they should guard against complacency, and I hope they're working very hard to make the rest of this campaign an effective one.0 -
So what do I do that night: I'm off to France on a school trip on the 9th, leaving early (6am ish). Stay up and sleep on the coach (not a great look in front of the pupils) or early night getting up about 3?dr_spyn said:Labour conceding defeat might be at earlier this time round.
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/8565598226444042280 -
The same as the PM, Archbishop of Canterbury and the Queen?Typo said:
The Lib Dems were pounding the streets of Oval yesterday, disturbing Sunday lunches. I wonder if this issueCarlottaVance said:Well, this one's been put to bed....er...
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/856556769174110208
came up. The avoidance is deafening. It's clear as day what his beliefs are.
On the other hand, as a good Liberal he has voted for equality.0 -
Nice try SO - but no cigar:SouthamObserver said:
Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:CarlottaVance said:
No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.kle4 said:
Only that Ed Miliband got there first.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126
Anyone know the detail behind this yet?
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not
rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During
the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices
and a better deal for working families."
Labour would freeze gas and electricity bills for every home and business in the UK for 20 months if it wins the 2015 election, Ed Miliband has said.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-24213366
In 2013 at the Labour Conference
Miliband’s eye-catching pledge came a few months before wholesale energy prices began a two-year slide, rendering the idea irrelevant.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/apr/23/energy-prices-tory-cap-miliband-freeze0 -
Could May smash 14million and 50%?Pulpstar said:
More votes than in 1992 ?dr_spyn said:Labour conceding defeat might be at earlier this time round.
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/856559822644404228
Not for Labour there isn't.
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Not confident I'll win the bet, but I'm certainly happy with the implied chance.ydoethur said:
I wouldn't be. I don't think I'd take less than 6-1.Omnium said:
I got 4/1 for the Tories yesterday. Pretty happy with that now.ydoethur said:One personal thought - Ynys Mon. I really cannot see the Tories taking it. Yes, yes, we can talk about mathematics and swings but let's also remember it is one of the poorest places in Europe (never mind Britain) and it is very much a Welsh language stronghold. Neither are exactly fertile starting points for the blues.
Particularly in light of this announcement today, I would argue the value is in a Plaid gain:
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/former-plaid-leader-ieuan-wyn-12935317
But it should also be remembered that regardless of national swings, the last sitting MP to be defeated here was Meghan Lloyd George in 1951 (edit - and it was a seat Labour gained at a time when Liberal transfers to the Tories gave them their first overall majority in 16 years).
But stranger things have happened.0 -
The Conservatives know that an awful lot of people approve of her. They don't necessarily particularly like her, but she is respected.ToryJim said:
The most interesting thing is not the policy but that it's being presented as Theresa May not Conservatives doing it. Think it's a strategy.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126
Anyone know the detail behind this yet?
You could argue the toss over whether May or Corbyn is the Tories' biggest asset, but she's certainly valuable to them.0 -
*weeps*HurstLlama said:
A week or so back I was in Durham Cathedral and there laid up like the colours of old regiments was a Durham Miners banner which contained the portraits of three heroes of the early Labour Movement. I sat and looked at that banner and thought about those men, their times and what they tried to achieve and my mind moved on to more modern times. Attlee, Bevan, Bevin, Dalton, Ede, Wilkinson and their ilk. Then I thought about our modern Labour politicians, Butler, Cooper, Abbott, Watson etc and, of course, the fool in chief, Corbyn. To stop myself feeling sick I had to take Herself off for a drink.Casino_Royale said:
Their pitch to the country was just as crap: vacuous Blairism-plus, ContinuityBrown and I'maScouserwhowenttoCambridgeandhasneverkissedaTory.Scott_P said:
They were pitching at the country. not the membership.Casino_Royale said:Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?
Pathetic.
You can argue that was dumb, as it cost them the leadership, but ti would have given them a chance now.
Unlike Corbyn.
The bigger mistake was not resigning the whip when he stayed after the vote of no confidence.
Where are the serious thinkers in Labour?
Are there any?
The big mistake(s) Labour have made is to take almost all their voters outside the core cities for granted, ceased to make themselves relevant in an era where There is No Money Left, maintained a total tin ear for the concept of nationhood, and relied almost exclusively on the cuts the Tories have made to do all the hard work for them.
Corbyn could fall under a bus tomorrow, and none of that would go away.0 -
Stay and watch the exit poll then get up a bit early to see if it bore out. I'd guess.Fysics_Teacher said:
So what do I do that night: I'm off to France on a school trip on the 9th, leaving early (6am ish). Stay up and sleep on the coach (not a great look in front of the pupils) or early night getting up about 3?dr_spyn said:Labour conceding defeat might be at earlier this time round.
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/8565598226444042280 -
Inspired by Morris battle analogy, I'm thinking of a cricket one. Labour are the Aussies in Melbourne 2010/11 ashes.0
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There must be a whole lot of Tories who recognise this as populist B**llocks: it is complete economic illiteracy, if she goes down this dirigiste road, then the next election she will be flattened. Trouble is that would be 2022 and the damage will have already been done. The foreign owned energy companies will drop the UK like a stone and there will be no investment in power generation, distribution or the grid: result brownouts within 2 yearsToryJim said:
The most interesting thing is not the policy but that it's being presented as Theresa May not Conservatives doing it. Think it's a strategy.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126
Anyone know the detail behind this yet?0 -
Ok, so why won't he be clear when asked about those beliefs? He deflects, obfuscates, gives bullsh*t generalisations. And it isn't a matter of 'his faith is his faith' - he'd answer many other questions about issues his faith is the foundation for, I have no doubt.foxinsoxuk said:
The same as the PM, Archbishop of Canterbury and the Queen?Typo said:
The Lib Dems were pounding the streets of Oval yesterday, disturbing Sunday lunches. I wonder if this issueCarlottaVance said:Well, this one's been put to bed....er...
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/856556769174110208
came up. The avoidance is deafening. It's clear as day what his beliefs are.
On the other hand, as a good Liberal he has voted for equality.
We can ask the PM too, I'd be interested to see how she answers.0 -
Makes you wonder how far ahead Tories could be if they had a more popular leader in Wales?0
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LOL at May energy price policy. I wonder what Ed Miliband is thinking about it? At least it's a sign (among others such as the triple lock being put under consideration) that May isn't swinging big time to the right. That's been one of my worries - that they may take this opportunity go very rightwards on social issues. But it looks like that won't be the case.0
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Probably the best plan.ToryJim said:
Stay and watch the exit poll then get up a bit early to see if it bore out. I'd guess.Fysics_Teacher said:
So what do I do that night: I'm off to France on a school trip on the 9th, leaving early (6am ish). Stay up and sleep on the coach (not a great look in front of the pupils) or early night getting up about 3?dr_spyn said:Labour conceding defeat might be at earlier this time round.
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/8565598226444042280 -
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My theory is that the important battles that faced those great men have largely been won. The country no longer has vast areas that could be from "the road to Wigan Pier". The great injustices have largely (though not wholly) gone, and what's more, Labour won many of the battles.HurstLlama said:
A week or so back I was in Durham Cathedral and there laid up like the colours of old regiments was a Durham Miners banner which contained the portraits of three heroes of the early Labour Movement. I sat and looked at that banner and thought about those men, their times and what they tried to achieve and my mind moved on to more modern times. Attlee, Bevan, Bevin, Dalton, Ede, Wilkinson and their ilk. Then I thought about our modern Labour politicians, Butler, Cooper, Abbott, Watson etc and, of course, the fool in chief, Corbyn. To stop myself feeling sick I had to take Herself off for a drink.Casino_Royale said:
Their pitch to the country was just as crap: vacuous Blairism-plus, ContinuityBrown and I'maScouserwhowenttoCambridgeandhasneverkissedaTory.Scott_P said:
They were pitching at the country. not the membership.Casino_Royale said:Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?
Pathetic.
You can argue that was dumb, as it cost them the leadership, but ti would have given them a chance now.
Unlike Corbyn.
The bigger mistake was not resigning the whip when he stayed after the vote of no confidence.
Where are the serious thinkers in Labour?
Are there any?
The big mistake(s) Labour have made is to take almost all their voters outside the core cities for granted, ceased to make themselves relevant in an era where There is No Money Left, maintained a total tin ear for the concept of nationhood, and relied almost exclusively on the cuts the Tories have made to do all the hard work for them.
Corbyn could fall under a bus tomorrow, and none of that would go away.
But nowadays we're talking about 'relative' poverty. We're talking about the state of the NHS, not the availability of universal healthcare. People have statutory holidays, and there is a minimum wage.
Now Labour's won the big battles, they have to move on to smaller items. And the public gives a heartfelt "meh!"0 -
No brainer. Up early. If May has done as well as predicted, a lot of recounts in safe Labour seats will be declaring about then. It's what I will do, albeit I am not off to France that morning!Fysics_Teacher said:
So what do I do that night: I'm off to France on a school trip on the 9th, leaving early (6am ish). Stay up and sleep on the coach (not a great look in front of the pupils) or early night getting up about 3?dr_spyn said:Labour conceding defeat might be at earlier this time round.
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/8565598226444042280 -
The 3 am wake up might work, if 1997 = 2017.Fysics_Teacher said:
So what do I do that night: I'm off to France on a school trip on the 9th, leaving early (6am ish). Stay up and sleep on the coach (not a great look in front of the pupils) or early night getting up about 3?dr_spyn said:Labour conceding defeat might be at earlier this time round.
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/856559822644404228
"At 3.30 this morning John Major, who easily held his own seat, revealed he had telephoned Mr Blair an hour earlier to concede defeat and congratulate the youngest prime minister since 1812, 44 next week."
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2005/feb/19/featuresreviews.guardianreview120 -
More like England captained by Andrew Flintoff in the series before that?dyedwoolie said:Inspired by Morris battle analogy, I'm thinking of a cricket one. Labour are the Aussies in Melbourne 2010/11 ashes.
You know, the one in which Steve Harmison bowled a memorable first ball of the series (wicket taking, it was not ...)0 -
Who's Cheminade, and how crap are they?williamglenn said:Macron finishes above 24%
https://twitter.com/lemondefr/status/8565619271700070410 -
I'm not so sure.Cicero said:
There must be a whole lot of Tories who recognise this as populist B**llocks: it is complee economic illiteracy, if she goes down this dirigiste road, then the next election she will be flattened.ToryJim said:
The most interesting thing is not the policy but that it's being presented as Theresa May not Conservatives doing it. Think it's a strategy.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126
Anyone know the detail behind this yet?0 -
No, i don't think. This election has become a referendum on how crap Corbyn is. As it was always going to be the moment the dolts in Labour re-elected him.dyedwoolie said:Could it be the only thing holding back a Tory landslide has been the Toff in Ten?
Joking aside, the WWC labour vote has been waiting for anything that isn't Lord Snooty and now they have it0 -
Ridiculous. Pointing, Johnson and Clarke were great players one of whom was past his best and the other two were having an off series.dyedwoolie said:Inspired by Morris battle analogy, I'm thinking of a cricket one. Labour are the Aussies in Melbourne 2010/11 ashes.
Corbyn, Macdonnell and Abbott are just loathsome scum who if they pooled their intelligence and experience would between them create an imbecile who was born yesterday.0 -
If that were so the party would not rebound, ever. Even the most optimistic Tory would not say that I think.JosiasJessop said:
My theory is that the important battles that faced those great men have largely been won. The country no longer has vast areas that could be from "the road to Wigan Pier". The great injustices have largely (though not wholly) gone, and what's more, Labour won many of the battles.HurstLlama said:
A week or so back I was in Durham Cathedral and there laid up like the colours of old regiments was a Durham Miners banner which contained the portraits of three heroes of the early Labour Movement. I sat and looked at that banner and thought about those men, their times and what they tried to achieve and my mind moved on to more modern times. Attlee, Bevan, Bevin, Dalton, Ede, Wilkinson and their ilk. Then I thought about our modern Labour politicians, Butler, Cooper, Abbott, Watson etc and, of course, the fool in chief, Corbyn. To stop myself feeling sick I had to take Herself off for a drink.Casino_Royale said:
Their pitch to the country was just as crap: vacuous Blairism-plus, ContinuityBrown and I'maScouserwhowenttoCambridgeandhasneverkissedaTory.Scott_P said:
They were pitching at the country. not the membership.Casino_Royale said:Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?
Pathetic.
You can argue that was dumb, as it cost them the leadership, but ti would have given them a chance now.
Unlike Corbyn.
The bigger mistake was not resigning the whip when he stayed after the vote of no confidence.
Where are the serious thinkers in Labour?
Are there any?
The big mistake(s) Labour have made is to take almost all their voters outside the core cities for granted, ceased to make themselves relevant in an era where There is No Money Left, maintained a total tin ear for the concept of nationhood, and relied almost exclusively on the cuts the Tories have made to do all the hard work for them.
Corbyn could fall under a bus tomorrow, and none of that would go away.
But nowadays we're talking about 'relative' poverty. We're talking about the state of the NHS, not the availability of universal healthcare. People have statutory holidays, and there is a minimum wage.
Now Labour's won the big battles, they have to move on to smaller items. And the public gives a heartfelt "meh!"0 -
Scroll down to that vote share graph in the article:dr_spyn said:Full You Gov tables for Wales.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/856560178292023296
1. Labour in steady, more-or-less continuous decline for five years. Tories flatlining for most of that time - until last year around the time of the EU Referendum and the Assembly vote.
2. Ukip first tracks gently downwards, and then falls off a cliff edge. Tories mop up nearly all of their lost votes, and a few percentage points from Labour for good measure.
3. Little or no sign of progress from either the Liberal Democrats or Plaid Cymru over the whole of the last five years.
Sums everything up quite neatly: things are moving heavily in favour of only one party. Caveat: the Welsh Barometer is an infrequent series. We could really do with more Wales-only polling over the next few weeks. We need more data to establish whether or not this result could be an outlier.0 -
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Love the Labour supporters trying to rubbish the poll as propaganda nonsense onTwitter0
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You will almost certainly know the basic result with the first exit poll at 10pm if it's anywhere near current polling. Even if the pollsters have an awful night, that would only be the difference between a blow-out and a sizable majority.Fysics_Teacher said:
So what do I do that night: I'm off to France on a school trip on the 9th, leaving early (6am ish). Stay up and sleep on the coach (not a great look in front of the pupils) or early night getting up about 3?dr_spyn said:Labour conceding defeat might be at earlier this time round.
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/856559822644404228
In 2015, it was close enough that a couple of percentage points error tipped it from largest party to majority party territory. But, like in 1997 or 2001, that sort of error makes no real difference in a landslide.0 -
All correct bar one minor point.Cicero said:
There must be a whole lot of Tories who recognise this as populist B**llocks: it is complete economic illiteracy, if she goes down this dirigiste road, then the next election she will be flattened. Trouble is that would be 2022 and the damage will have already been done. The foreign owned energy companies will drop the UK like a stone and there will be no investment in power generation, distribution or the grid: result brownouts within 2 yearsToryJim said:
The most interesting thing is not the policy but that it's being presented as Theresa May not Conservatives doing it. Think it's a strategy.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126
Anyone know the detail behind this yet?
There is no way May will be PM at the time of the next election. It is her successor who will be pummelled.
Although that does rather presuppose a surviving opposition party.0 -
That's for future May to worry about!Cicero said:
There must be a whole lot of Tories who recognise this as populist B**llocks: it is complete economic illiteracy, if she goes down this dirigiste road, then the next election she will be flattened. Trouble is that would be 2022 and the damage will have already been done. The foreign owned energy companies will drop the UK like a stone and there will be no investment in power generation, distribution or the grid: result brownouts within 2 yearsToryJim said:
The most interesting thing is not the policy but that it's being presented as Theresa May not Conservatives doing it. Think it's a strategy.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126
Anyone know the detail behind this yet?0 -
I find Hurst Llama's post really moving. The best post of the year IMO.Prodicus said:
*weeps*HurstLlama said:
A week or so back I was in Durham Cathedral and there laid up like the colours of old regiments was a Durham Miners banner which contained the portraits of three heroes of the early Labour Movement. I sat and looked at that banner and thought about those men, their times and what they tried to achieve and my mind moved on to more modern times. Attlee, Bevan, Bevin, Dalton, Ede, Wilkinson and their ilk. Then I thought about our modern Labour politicians, Butler, Cooper, Abbott, Watson etc and, of course, the fool in chief, Corbyn. To stop myself feeling sick I had to take Herself off for a drink.Casino_Royale said:
Their pitch to the country was just as crap: vacuous Blairism-plus, ContinuityBrown and I'maScouserwhowenttoCambridgeandhasneverkissedaTory.Scott_P said:
They were pitching at the country. not the membership.Casino_Royale said:Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?
Pathetic.
You can argue that was dumb, as it cost them the leadership, but ti would have given them a chance now.
Unlike Corbyn.
The bigger mistake was not resigning the whip when he stayed after the vote of no confidence.
Where are the serious thinkers in Labour?
Are there any?
The big mistake(s) Labour have made is to take almost all their voters outside the core cities for granted, ceased to make themselves relevant in an era where There is No Money Left, maintained a total tin ear for the concept of nationhood, and relied almost exclusively on the cuts the Tories have made to do all the hard work for them.
Corbyn could fall under a bus tomorrow, and none of that would go away.0 -
A conspiraloon who's allied with Lyndon LaRouche. Even Corbyn could beat him.kle4 said:
Who's Cheminade, and how crap are they?williamglenn said:Macron finishes above 24%
https://twitter.com/lemondefr/status/8565619271700070410 -
What makes you say there'll be no way she is PM?ydoethur said:
All correct bar one minor point.Cicero said:
There must be a whole lot of Tories who recognise this as populist B**llocks: it is complete economic illiteracy, if she goes down this dirigiste road, then the next election she will be flattened. Trouble is that would be 2022 and the damage will have already been done. The foreign owned energy companies will drop the UK like a stone and there will be no investment in power generation, distribution or the grid: result brownouts within 2 yearsToryJim said:
The most interesting thing is not the policy but that it's being presented as Theresa May not Conservatives doing it. Think it's a strategy.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126
Anyone know the detail behind this yet?
There is no way May will be PM at the time of the next election. It is her successor who will be pummelled.
Although that does rather presuppose a surviving opposition party.0 -
I think you underestimate the decades May has put in on the rubber chicken circuit with the local associations - she's one of them - unlike the posh boys, who were always a bit de haut en bas.....Black_Rook said:
They don't necessarily particularly like her, but she is respected.ToryJim said:
The most interesting thing is not the policy but that it's being presented as Theresa May not Conservatives doing it. Think it's a strategy.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126
Anyone know the detail behind this yet?
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It's interesting that all the polls are showing that Labour's vote is fairly stable at a low level (26ish): there isn't a panicky flight from Corbyn. What's happening is that UKIP's vote (some of it former Labour) is going Tory. The poll published earlier this week showing that the Tory score has actually declined in Tory seats while increasing in strong Labour seats is a good illustration. That's as the Tories would want it, in terms of winning seats, though it may not be altogether healthy in the medium term if they can't meet the aspirations of their former Kipper friends.0
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Still no constituency markets from Ladbrokes. Shame really, previously Shadsy complete with his blackboard was the familiar and friendly face of British political betting.0
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I'm talking about the moment in time and what happened that morning, not the career performance of the giants that were slain. Although Michael 'ooh my back' Clarke was never a great against us, just bung down a slow yorker and watch him go into meltdown.ydoethur said:
Ridiculous. Pointing, Johnson and Clarke were great players one of whom was past his best and the other two were having an off series.dyedwoolie said:Inspired by Morris battle analogy, I'm thinking of a cricket one. Labour are the Aussies in Melbourne 2010/11 ashes.
Corbyn, Macdonnell and Abbott are just loathsome scum who if they pooled their intelligence and experience would between them an imbecile who was born yesterday.0 -
Bit presumptuous of the Tories to change the colour of the flag, that could cost them a vote or two - such hubris.dr_spyn said:Full You Gov tables for Wales.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/856560178292023296
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It is populist bollocks. Rotten policy offered by a rotten leader - Ed M. May shouldn't touch it with a barge pole. Axing the green levies would be preferable.Cicero said:
There must be a whole lot of Tories who recognise this as populist B**llocks: it is complete economic illiteracy, if she goes down this dirigiste road, then the next election she will be flattened. Trouble is that would be 2022 and the damage will have already been done. The foreign owned energy companies will drop the UK like a stone and there will be no investment in power generation, distribution or the grid: result brownouts within 2 yearsToryJim said:
The most interesting thing is not the policy but that it's being presented as Theresa May not Conservatives doing it. Think it's a strategy.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126
Anyone know the detail behind this yet?0 -
Early night it is.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
You will almost certainly know the basic result with the first exit poll at 10pm if it's anywhere near current polling. Even if the pollsters have an awful night, that would only be the difference between a blow-out and a sizable majority.Fysics_Teacher said:
So what do I do that night: I'm off to France on a school trip on the 9th, leaving early (6am ish). Stay up and sleep on the coach (not a great look in front of the pupils) or early night getting up about 3?dr_spyn said:Labour conceding defeat might be at earlier this time round.
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/856559822644404228
In 2015, it was close enough that a couple of percentage points error tipped it from largest party to majority party territory. But, like in 1997 or 2001, that sort of error makes no real difference in a landslide.0 -
Yes, it's little strange that way. It provides hope to Labour, thought at present not a great deal if these things pan out the way the polls suggest.NickPalmer said:It's interesting that all the polls are showing that Labour's vote is fairly stable at a low level (26ish): there isn't a panicky flight from Corbyn. What's happening is that UKIP's vote (some of it former Labour) is going Tory.
0 -
The rule of the Fifth French Republic is that every President is worse than the last, Macron fits that sequence, for sure.williamglenn said:Macron finishes above 24%
https://twitter.com/lemondefr/status/8565619271700070410 -
Agreed.SandraM said:
I find Hurst Llama's post really moving. The best post of the year IMO.Prodicus said:
*weeps*HurstLlama said:
A week or so back I was in Durham Cathedral and there laid up like the colours of old regiments was a Durham Miners banner which contained the portraits of three heroes of the early Labour Movement. I sat and looked at that banner and thought about those men, their times and what they tried to achieve and my mind moved on to more modern times. Attlee, Bevan, Bevin, Dalton, Ede, Wilkinson and their ilk. Then I thought about our modern Labour politicians, Butler, Cooper, Abbott, Watson etc and, of course, the fool in chief, Corbyn. To stop myself feeling sick I had to take Herself off for a drink.Casino_Royale said:
Their pitch to the country was just as crap: vacuous Blairism-plus, ContinuityBrown and I'maScouserwhowenttoCambridgeandhasneverkissedaTory.Scott_P said:
They were pitching at the country. not the membership.Casino_Royale said:Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?
Pathetic.
You can argue that was dumb, as it cost them the leadership, but ti would have given them a chance now.
Unlike Corbyn.
The bigger mistake was not resigning the whip when he stayed after the vote of no confidence.
Where are the serious thinkers in Labour?
Are there any?
The big mistake(s) Labour have made is to take almost all their voters outside the core cities for granted, ceased to make themselves relevant in an era where There is No Money Left, maintained a total tin ear for the concept of nationhood, and relied almost exclusively on the cuts the Tories have made to do all the hard work for them.
Corbyn could fall under a bus tomorrow, and none of that would go away.
The only thing that puzzled me was that I thought Butler was a Conservative.
Then I realised it was a reference to False Dawn Butler, not R A Butler.
I do hope the shade of Lord Butler of Saffron Walden will forgive me such a wicked slur on his flawed greatness, compared to her great flawedness.0 -
Why do you think May won't be PM by 2022?ydoethur said:
All correct bar one minor point.Cicero said:
There must be a whole lot of Tories who recognise this as populist B**llocks: it is complete economic illiteracy, if she goes down this dirigiste road, then the next election she will be flattened. Trouble is that would be 2022 and the damage will have already been done. The foreign owned energy companies will drop the UK like a stone and there will be no investment in power generation, distribution or the grid: result brownouts within 2 yearsToryJim said:
The most interesting thing is not the policy but that it's being presented as Theresa May not Conservatives doing it. Think it's a strategy.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126
Anyone know the detail behind this yet?
There is no way May will be PM at the time of the next election. It is her successor who will be pummelled.
Although that does rather presuppose a surviving opposition party.
0 -
Andy has already explained how it could be done - the dissolution of parliament means they could rebel en masse and still fight as anti Corbyn Labour. Nothing stopping them doing it.Fysics_Teacher said:0 -
-
And then? Successor? Watson? McDonnnell?bobajobPB said:@AndyJS is right. Labour have nothing left to lose. Knife Corbyn the morning after parliament dissolves, before if they can find a way.
Successor's pitch?
a) Jeremy was good, just not appropriate for the times. He retires with honour and the thanks of the whole Labour Party for his 32 years of loyalty. Oh, wait...
b) Jeremy has retired for personal/health reasons. Tragic. Heartfelt thanks, etc., and now, ONWARD!
c) Who?
0 -
She will be 65 and will have had five years of utter hell sorting Brexit and the resulting fallout plus trying to deal with Nicola Sturgeon and Donald Trump.The_Apocalypse said:
Why do you think May won't be PM by 2022?ydoethur said:
All correct bar one minor point.Cicero said:
There must be a whole lot of Tories who recognise this as populist B**llocks: it is complete economic illiteracy, if she goes down this dirigiste road, then the next election she will be flattened. Trouble is that would be 2022 and the damage will have already been done. The foreign owned energy companies will drop the UK like a stone and there will be no investment in power generation, distribution or the grid: result brownouts within 2 yearsToryJim said:
The most interesting thing is not the policy but that it's being presented as Theresa May not Conservatives doing it. Think it's a strategy.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126
Anyone know the detail behind this yet?
There is no way May will be PM at the time of the next election. It is her successor who will be pummelled.
Although that does rather presuppose a surviving opposition party.
She will resign in 2020, I think, if not earlier.0 -
Nonsense.ydoethur said:
She will be 65 and will have had five years of utter hell sorting Brexit and the resulting fallout plus trying to deal with Nicola Sturgeon and Donald Trump.The_Apocalypse said:
Why do you think May won't be PM by 2022?ydoethur said:
All correct bar one minor point.Cicero said:
There must be a whole lot of Tories who recognise this as populist B**llocks: it is complete economic illiteracy, if she goes down this dirigiste road, then the next election she will be flattened. Trouble is that would be 2022 and the damage will have already been done. The foreign owned energy companies will drop the UK like a stone and there will be no investment in power generation, distribution or the grid: result brownouts within 2 yearsToryJim said:
The most interesting thing is not the policy but that it's being presented as Theresa May not Conservatives doing it. Think it's a strategy.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126
Anyone know the detail behind this yet?
There is no way May will be PM at the time of the next election. It is her successor who will be pummelled.
Although that does rather presuppose a surviving opposition party.
She will resign in 2020, I think, if not earlier.
0 -
The Greens have pinched half the flag!kle4 said:
Bit presumptuous of the Tories to change the colour of the flag, that could cost them a vote or two - such hubris.dr_spyn said:Full You Gov tables for Wales.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/8565601782920232960 -
Nice try :-DCarlottaVance said:
Nice try SO - but no cigar:SouthamObserver said:
Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:CarlottaVance said:
No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.kle4 said:
Only that Ed Miliband got there first.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126
Anyone know the detail behind this yet?
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not
rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During
the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices
and a better deal for working families."
Labour would freeze gas and electricity bills for every home and business in the UK for 20 months if it wins the 2015 election, Ed Miliband has said.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-24213366
In 2013 at the Labour Conference
Miliband’s eye-catching pledge came a few months before wholesale energy prices began a two-year slide, rendering the idea irrelevant.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/apr/23/energy-prices-tory-cap-miliband-freeze
It's in the manifesto. In black and white: ""Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise." It's precisely what May is proposing.
0 -
The exit poll was a bit out then. Not massively, but Macron closer to 3% ahead than 2% and Fillon doing a bit better.kle4 said:
Who's Cheminade, and how crap are they?williamglenn said:Macron finishes above 24%
https://twitter.com/lemondefr/status/8565619271700070410 -
That is the nuclear option though isn't it? There would be a lot of constituencies with two 'Labour' candidates, there would be huge rows over what name they could use and May would be looking at 500+ seats.bobajobPB said:
Andy has already explained how it could be done - the dissolution of parliament means they could rebel en masse and still fight as anti Corbyn Labour. Nothing stopping them doing it.Fysics_Teacher said:
0 -
Miss Apocalypse
The energy policy is surely an economic policy not a social policy? May likes the Red Tory look - a bit populist left on economics while flag wavey gravy and anti metropolitan "citizens of nowhere" taunting on social policy. She's pretty yukky.0 -
In regard to HurstLlama's post, many Corbynites see him as being in the mould of an old-school Labour politician.
Yes, they really do.
Of all the pre 1979 Labour figures, the ones that I like the most are Roy Jenkins and Hugh Gaitskell.0 -
My 1992 election running totals spreadsheet:dr_spyn said:Labour conceding defeat might be at earlier this time round.
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/856559822644404228
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10JXFr2nEi6_H_CXvdvrpezS7Rfv6UwzLMrHZcsrsxMI/edit#gid=00 -
The polls seem to have been pretty accurate for him, perhaps over egging Marine. I reckon that Marine will be about 35% next round.williamglenn said:Macron finishes above 24%
https://twitter.com/lemondefr/status/856561927170007041
0 -
d) Jeremy was an idiot, and thankfully we're rid of him.Prodicus said:
And then? Successor? Watson? McDonnnell?bobajobPB said:@AndyJS is right. Labour have nothing left to lose. Knife Corbyn the morning after parliament dissolves, before if they can find a way.
Successor's pitch?
a) Jeremy was good, just not appropriate for the times. He retires with honour and the thanks of the whole Labour Party for his 32 years of loyalty. Oh, wait...
b) Jeremy has retired for personal/health reasons. Tragic. Heartfelt thanks, etc., and now, ONWARD!
c) Who?0 -
-
Reminds me of one of the first events of the Labour Leadership contest (maybe even before it officially began), where the candidates were asked what had gone wrong and how it would be fixed, and they were starting with what a great job Ed M had done and all the activists, and the host interrupted, imploring with them that they've heard that already, but they lost quite badly and needed to talk about what had gone wrong.Prodicus said:0 -
Can you register candidates after parliament dissolves? The trick is to stage the rebellion after the registration date, surely?Fysics_Teacher said:
That is the nuclear option though isn't it? There would be a lot of constituencies with two 'Labour' candidates, there would be huge rows over what name they could use and May would be looking at 500+ seats.bobajobPB said:
Andy has already explained how it could be done - the dissolution of parliament means they could rebel en masse and still fight as anti Corbyn Labour. Nothing stopping them doing it.Fysics_Teacher said:0 -
Who says they live in a parallel universe...calum said:0 -
The expert review on ITV Wales on the all Wales poll said that if anything the poll is overstating labour support. Yes, overstatingkle4 said:
Yes, it's little strange that way. It provides hope to Labour, thought at present not a great deal if these things pan out the way the polls suggest.NickPalmer said:It's interesting that all the polls are showing that Labour's vote is fairly stable at a low level (26ish): there isn't a panicky flight from Corbyn. What's happening is that UKIP's vote (some of it former Labour) is going Tory.
0 -
Coral have also pulled their UKIP vote share market, but Skybet still have theirs up: 5% or less - 9/4; 5.01-10% - 1/2trawl said:Ukip Vote Share
Yesterday I mentioned the 1/4 Ladbrokes were offering on UKIP vote share under 10%. Just checked and can't find that market now never mind those odds. Wish I'd got more on.-1 -
Looking at what has actually been said about this policy it looks like she isn't offering an absolute cap. Rather she is talking about limiting the differential between a company's most expensive tariff and its cheapest tariff. The idea appears to be an attempt to address the fact that most consumers are on the most expensive tariff.dr_spyn said:
It is populist bollocks. Rotten policy offered by a rotten leader - Ed M. May shouldn't touch it with a barge pole. Axing the green levies would be preferable.Cicero said:
There must be a whole lot of Tories who recognise this as populist B**llocks: it is complete economic illiteracy, if she goes down this dirigiste road, then the next election she will be flattened. Trouble is that would be 2022 and the damage will have already been done. The foreign owned energy companies will drop the UK like a stone and there will be no investment in power generation, distribution or the grid: result brownouts within 2 yearsToryJim said:
The most interesting thing is not the policy but that it's being presented as Theresa May not Conservatives doing it. Think it's a strategy.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126
Anyone know the detail behind this yet?
Something certainly needs to be done about the fact energy companies are able to rely on customer inertia to get consumers onto expensive tariffs.0 -
So the Tories improved Miliband's initially poor idea and made it into a better less worse one!SouthamObserver said:
Nice try :-DCarlottaVance said:
Nice try SO - but no cigar:SouthamObserver said:
Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:CarlottaVance said:
No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.kle4 said:
Only that Ed Miliband got there first.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126
Anyone know the detail behind this yet?
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not
rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During
the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices
and a better deal for working families."
Labour would freeze gas and electricity bills for every home and business in the UK for 20 months if it wins the 2015 election, Ed Miliband has said.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-24213366
In 2013 at the Labour Conference
Miliband’s eye-catching pledge came a few months before wholesale energy prices began a two-year slide, rendering the idea irrelevant.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/apr/23/energy-prices-tory-cap-miliband-freeze
It's in the manifesto. In black and white: ""Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise." It's precisely what May is proposing.0 -
11th May is candidates deadline. 3rd May is dissolutionbobajobPB said:
Can you register candidates after parliament dissolves? The trick is to stage the rebellion after the registration date, surely?Fysics_Teacher said:
That is the nuclear option though isn't it? There would be a lot of constituencies with two 'Labour' candidates, there would be huge rows over what name they could use and May would be looking at 500+ seats.bobajobPB said:
Andy has already explained how it could be done - the dissolution of parliament means they could rebel en masse and still fight as anti Corbyn Labour. Nothing stopping them doing it.Fysics_Teacher said:0 -
I think that's going a little far. It's just that the foundations on which the Labour party were built have largely disappeared, and it has failed to evolve.kle4 said:
If that were so the party would not rebound, ever. Even the most optimistic Tory would not say that I think.JosiasJessop said:
My theory is that the important battles that faced those great men have largely been won. The country no longer has vast areas that could be from "the road to Wigan Pier". The great injustices have largely (though not wholly) gone, and what's more, Labour won many of the battles.
But nowadays we're talking about 'relative' poverty. We're talking about the state of the NHS, not the availability of universal healthcare. People have statutory holidays, and there is a minimum wage.
Now Labour's won the big battles, they have to move on to smaller items. And the public gives a heartfelt "meh!"
I think Blair recognised this, and this was part (though not all) of his thinking with 'the third way'. A move away from the party's roots towards electibility. An evolution that was sadly reversible.
With the battles won, Labour are left with redundant trade unionism and socialism. Hence Corbyn, and the difficulty in shifting him. Fifty years ago those two factors were supported by real injustices. Nowadays, whilst there are injustices about, they're generally more nebulous.0 -
I might have to go and have a lie down, as I agree with Nick....Lab vote seems to be stuck at 25%. Looks like that might be the bedrock for Labour support, still impressive as we always used to talk about Labour and Tory having a firewall of 30%.0
-
Just do it and dare Corbyn to put up candidates against them.Fysics_Teacher said:0 -
I guess she's not supportive of SLAB voters considering tactical unionist voting, eh?calum said:0 -
Link to manifesto?SouthamObserver said:
It's precisely what May is proposing.CarlottaVance said:
Nice try SO - but no cigar:SouthamObserver said:
Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:CarlottaVance said:
No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.kle4 said:
Only that Ed Miliband got there first.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126
Anyone know the detail behind this yet?
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not
rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During
the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices
and a better deal for working families."
Labour would freeze gas and electricity bills for every home and business in the UK for 20 months if it wins the 2015 election, Ed Miliband has said.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-24213366
In 2013 at the Labour Conference
Miliband’s eye-catching pledge came a few months before wholesale energy prices began a two-year slide, rendering the idea irrelevant.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/apr/23/energy-prices-tory-cap-miliband-freeze0 -
Okay, hang on a week then ;-)rottenborough said:
11th May is candidates deadline. 3rd May is dissolutionbobajobPB said:
Can you register candidates after parliament dissolves? The trick is to stage the rebellion after the registration date, surely?Fysics_Teacher said:
That is the nuclear option though isn't it? There would be a lot of constituencies with two 'Labour' candidates, there would be huge rows over what name they could use and May would be looking at 500+ seats.bobajobPB said:
Andy has already explained how it could be done - the dissolution of parliament means they could rebel en masse and still fight as anti Corbyn Labour. Nothing stopping them doing it.Fysics_Teacher said:0 -
The sad, dying fall of the final straw being clutched to death.NickPalmer said:It's interesting that all the polls are showing that Labour's vote is fairly stable at a low level (26ish): there isn't a panicky flight from Corbyn. What's happening is that UKIP's vote (some of it former Labour) is going Tory. The poll published earlier this week showing that the Tory score has actually declined in Tory seats while increasing in strong Labour seats is a good illustration. That's as the Tories would want it, in terms of winning seats, though it may not be altogether healthy in the medium term if they can't meet the aspirations of their former Kipper friends.
0 -
With a number of old friends - you know who you are - making a welcome return to PB.com over recent days, here's hoping to see a few more of all political persuasions, including my old mucker, Bunnco .... your man on the spot, reporting from Norfolk.0
-
A very fair point, Mr. Jessop. Perhaps then Labour, like UKIP, is a party whose job is done. They both have nothing more relevant to say and should go into history together. Perhaps that is the message of this GE, an explanation, if you will, of what is going on.JosiasJessop said:
My theory is that the important battles that faced those great men have largely been won. The country no longer has vast areas that could be from "the road to Wigan Pier". The great injustices have largely (though not wholly) gone, and what's more, Labour won many of the battles.HurstLlama said:
A week or so back I was in Durham Cathedral and there laid up like the colours of old regiments was a Durham Miners banner which contained the portraits of three heroes of the early Labour Movement. I sat and looked at that banner and thought about those men, their times and what they tried to achieve and my mind moved on to more modern times. Attlee, Bevan, Bevin, Dalton, Ede, Wilkinson and their ilk. Then I thought about our modern Labour politicians, Butler, Cooper, Abbott, Watson etc and, of course, the fool in chief, Corbyn. To stop myself feeling sick I had to take Herself off for a drink.Casino_Royale said:
Their pitch to the country was just as crap: vacuous Blairism-plus, ContinuityBrown and I'maScouserwhowenttoCambridgeandhasneverkissedaTory.Scott_P said:
They were pitching at the country. not the membership.Casino_Royale said:Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?
Pathetic.
You can argue that was dumb, as it cost them the leadership, but ti would have given them a chance now.
Unlike Corbyn.
The bigger mistake was not resigning the whip when he stayed after the vote of no confidence.
Where are the serious thinkers in Labour?
Are there any?
The big mistake(s) Labour have made is to take almost all their voters outside the core cities for granted, ceased to make themselves relevant in an era where There is No Money Left, maintained a total tin ear for the concept of nationhood, and relied almost exclusively on the cuts the Tories have made to do all the hard work for them.
Corbyn could fall under a bus tomorrow, and none of that would go away.
But nowadays we're talking about 'relative' poverty. We're talking about the state of the NHS, not the availability of universal healthcare. People have statutory holidays, and there is a minimum wage.
Now Labour's won the big battles, they have to move on to smaller items. And the public gives a heartfelt "meh!"0 -
Here's a little idea to float (I think there's next to no chance of it happening but still, for fun).
Could Labour MPs/candidates wait until close of nominations then en masse say "If elected, we would be led as a Parliamentary group by Cooper, who would be PM if she can command a majority. You can henceforth ignore Corbyn... Cooper is the only person who can speak for the large majority of Labour's candidates in this election"?
It would be too late for deselection, or for Corbynites to put up alternative candidates in seats. It would sideline Corbyn as he'd literally be unable to form a Government under any circumstances - he'd be left leading a grouping of 20-30 MPs seeking re-election and not enough candidates to form a Government even if all were miraculously elected. Even if Labour went with Corbyn and expelled everyone after the election, they'd still be MPs for five years and occupying the front bench.
As I say, won't happen, but fun little idea!0 -
Mr Flashman, perhaps you would be good enough rather than snapping random nouns at me, to point out what you perceive as the flaw in my reasoning?TGOHF said:
Nonsense.ydoethur said:
She will be 65 and will have had five years of utter hell sorting Brexit and the resulting fallout plus trying to deal with Nicola Sturgeon and Donald Trump.The_Apocalypse said:
Why do you think May won't be PM by 2022?ydoethur said:
All correct bar one minor point.Cicero said:
There must be a whole lot of Tories who recognise this as populist B**llocks: it is complete economic illiteracy, if she goes down this dirigiste road, then the next election she will be flattened. Trouble is that would be 2022 and the damage will have already been done. The foreign owned energy companies will drop the UK like a stone and there will be no investment in power generation, distribution or the grid: result brownouts within 2 yearsToryJim said:
The most interesting thing is not the policy but that it's being presented as Theresa May not Conservatives doing it. Think it's a strategy.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126
Anyone know the detail behind this yet?
There is no way May will be PM at the time of the next election. It is her successor who will be pummelled.
Although that does rather presuppose a surviving opposition party.
She will resign in 2020, I think, if not earlier.0 -
Going to need a bigger medal cabinet than previously imagined....
Britain's Kelly Sotherton is set to be upgraded to an Olympic bronze medal for the second time in five months after retrospective drug tests.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/athletics/396957390 -
As I wrote the other day:CarlottaVance said:
So the Tories improved Miliband's initially poor idea and made it into a better less worse one!SouthamObserver said:
Nice try :-DCarlottaVance said:
Nice try SO - but no cigar:SouthamObserver said:
Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:CarlottaVance said:
No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.kle4 said:
Only that Ed Miliband got there first.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126
Anyone know the detail behind this yet?
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not
rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During
the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices
and a better deal for working families."
Labour would freeze gas and electricity bills for every home and business in the UK for 20 months if it wins the 2015 election, Ed Miliband has said.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-24213366
In 2013 at the Labour Conference
Miliband’s eye-catching pledge came a few months before wholesale energy prices began a two-year slide, rendering the idea irrelevant.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/apr/23/energy-prices-tory-cap-miliband-freeze
It's in the manifesto. In black and white: ""Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise." It's precisely what May is proposing.
Miliband proposes freeze = Bad May proposes freeze = good
PB Tories = PB Hypocrites0 -
They haven't really said much in the way of social policies, so I only have the economic policies to go off in regard to getting a sense of where May wants to take the country.bobajobPB said:Miss Apocalypse
The energy policy is surely an economic policy not a social policy? May likes the Red Tory look - a bit populist left on economics while flag wavey gravy and anti metropolitan "citizens of nowhere" taunting on social policy. She's pretty yukky.
I'm with you on your second point, but that kind of rhetoric hasn't been translated into many social policies. I always saw it as a larger symptom of the government not appearing to have a strategy/plan for Brexit.0 -
0
-
Lawyers in cases against UK troops 'knew clients belonged to Iraqi militia'
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/apr/24/lawyers-leigh-day-cases-against-uk-troops-allegedly-knew-clients-belonged-iraq-militia-mahdi-army0 -
It won't be his decision. He will be challenged - and trounced.bobajobPB said:
'What do they do if Corbyn refuses to go after the election?'Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jim, yet entirely predictable.
What do they do if Corbyn refuses to go after the election?
Mr. Rabbit, or, to paraphrase Murray Walked - there's nothing wrong with the Labour Party, except that it's on fire.
.... I hope after the election they either finally get rid of Corbyn or just split. The country needs an opposition.
This is the key question. Can we get a thread on this from a Labour insider?0 -
Labour aren't going to change Leader now. The Titanic goes down with Captain Corbyn, there aren't any lifeboats.0
-
Several PB Tories have acted with hostility to the proposal.surbiton said:
As I wrote the other day:CarlottaVance said:
So the Tories improved Miliband's initially poor idea and made it into a better less worse one!SouthamObserver said:
Nice try :-DCarlottaVance said:
Nice try SO - but no cigar:SouthamObserver said:
Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:CarlottaVance said:
No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.kle4 said:
Only that Ed Miliband got there first.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126
Anyone know the detail behind this yet?
A 'cap' is different.
Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.
"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not
rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During
the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices
and a better deal for working families."
Labour would freeze gas and electricity bills for every home and business in the UK for 20 months if it wins the 2015 election, Ed Miliband has said.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-24213366
In 2013 at the Labour Conference
Miliband’s eye-catching pledge came a few months before wholesale energy prices began a two-year slide, rendering the idea irrelevant.
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/apr/23/energy-prices-tory-cap-miliband-freeze
It's in the manifesto. In black and white: ""Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not rise." It's precisely what May is proposing.
Miliband proposes freeze = Bad May proposes freeze = good
PB Tories = PB Hypocrites0 -
Every day I look at the @newdawn1997 Tweets - a cut and paste job for today's headline writers re 2017. Looks as if Worcester Women & Mondeo Men are no longer voting Labour.
1997 was bad for The Tories, it took them 5 General Elections to get a majority, and even then Cameron contrived to screw things up by that Referendum.
It could be a long way back for Labour.0 -
Fox's anecdata:NickPalmer said:It's interesting that all the polls are showing that Labour's vote is fairly stable at a low level (26ish): there isn't a panicky flight from Corbyn. What's happening is that UKIP's vote (some of it former Labour) is going Tory. The poll published earlier this week showing that the Tory score has actually declined in Tory seats while increasing in strong Labour seats is a good illustration. That's as the Tories would want it, in terms of winning seats, though it may not be altogether healthy in the medium term if they can't meet the aspirations of their former Kipper friends.
1) Romsey Constituency, visiting grandpa Fox: Orange diamonds and blue posters sighted in equal (low!) numbers.
2) Overheard train conversation of bunch of students heading London to Leeds. Not v keen on Corbyn, but voting Labour anyway.
3) Naturalised Greek voting LD in Harborough, his British wife voting Labour.
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#2 - Chances they actually get registered and don't forget / oversleep / can be arsed to get to the polling station....very low.foxinsoxuk said:
Fox's anecdata:NickPalmer said:It's interesting that all the polls are showing that Labour's vote is fairly stable at a low level (26ish): there isn't a panicky flight from Corbyn. What's happening is that UKIP's vote (some of it former Labour) is going Tory. The poll published earlier this week showing that the Tory score has actually declined in Tory seats while increasing in strong Labour seats is a good illustration. That's as the Tories would want it, in terms of winning seats, though it may not be altogether healthy in the medium term if they can't meet the aspirations of their former Kipper friends.
1) Romsey Constituency, visiting grandpa Fox: Orange diamonds and blue posters sighted in equal (low!) numbers.
2) Overheard train conversation of bunch of students heading London to Leeds. Not v keen on Corbyn, but voting Labour anyway.
3) Naturalised Greek voting LD in Harborough, his British wife voting Labour.0
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