politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP’s collapse gives huge boost to CON in Wales. Now 10% ahea

Artist said:

Casino_Royale said:

This might not be a popular point of view, but I'd argue this is just as much the fault of the Labour moderates as it is of Corbyn, who's a symptom, not a cause. And why Labour wouldn't recover much even if they ditched him right now.

Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?

Pathetic.

Because Labour members didn't want to listen to the hard truths of the election defeat and Corbyn told them what they wanted to hear. If neither Burnham or Cooper were inspiring enough for them, they should have just left it to the grown ups to decide.

To an extent, I think that's an excuse.

So basically, Seumas Milne has manage to do to Labour what he did to the Guardian. #Shock

Casino_Royale said:

kle4 said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

To my fellow blues, calm down, a single vote has yet to be cast.

You don't want to become the IOS de nos jours

Correct. This is entertaining, but there is already a lot of hubris around.

Some bad news should happen for the Tories soon, otherwise the hubristic triumphalism may be difficult to resist - in fairness I cannot blame some of them. For now plenty are doing their best to be cautious, quietly confident, but just as Lab MPs may start to crack if this keeps up for 6 weeks, Tories surely will too, in the opposite direction.

I suspect the manifesto won't be to everyone's liking.

If it is, as expected, quite light in comparison to previous ones, maybe that will blunt such an effect a bit, but it would seem probable that there will be things in there that will cause kickback. The lack of explicit promise to keep the pensions lock, for example, would be a tacit admission it is going.

AllyPally_Rob said:

MarqueeMark said:

Noon-Valley Wales becoming like just another bit of England....

Tory.

Parts of Wales always have been like England.

North Wales where a lot of my family are from is by-enlarge and extension of Merseyside and the North West.

Wrexham and the North Wales coast should never have been included in the devolution deal. They have far more in common (economically) with Chester/Merseyside than with Cardiff and South Wales.

Agree with your comments

@jimwaterson: Trying to contact local UKIP branches based on 2016 phone numbers = string of people saying "sorry I've joined the Tories/been kicked out".

JonathanD said:

I see the Telegraph has finally realised the EU isn't about to fall apart but rather that they are gearing up to give the UK the mother of all punishment beatings

Sounds like a terrible organisation to be a part of - wouldn't a noble and decent organisation be tough but fair?

Black_Rook said:

calum said:

Hopefully get some proper English regional polls.

This is starting to feel like here in Scotland 6 months before polling day when the polls were projecting 45+% for the SNP - most pundits and many seasoned political betters couldn't quite believe SLAB were facing a wipeout.

Regional surveys would certainly help. The recent ComRes (with Con = 50%) had the Tories ahead in every one of the ten or so regions specified, except for the North East, and for Scotland (obviously.) But that finding is contingent on unsatisfactorily small sub-samples.

Labour in England and Wales is not, of course, facing a Scottish-style wipeout - the SNP possesses an ability to attract a very wide spectrum of voters from quite far left to centre right, which the Tories cannot quite match, along with the unifying message of independence against a divided Unionist opposition. But if things don't change, and change significantly, in favour of Labour then they could still suffer very badly.

It is sobering to reflect that with this survey the Tories are ahead of Labour in every single area of the mainland, and in second place only in Scotland.

It is becoming horribly easy to see why May thought she would never have a better moment for an election than this.

Artist said:

Casino_Royale said:

This might not be a popular point of view, but I'd argue this is just as much the fault of the Labour moderates as it is of Corbyn, who's a symptom, not a cause. And why Labour wouldn't recover much even if they ditched him right now.

Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?

Pathetic.

Because Labour members didn't want to listen to the hard truths of the election defeat and Corbyn told them what they wanted to hear. If neither Burnham or Cooper were inspiring enough for them, they should have just left it to the grown ups to decide.

Corbyn had a simple message, like Trump. That pulled in assorted entryists as well as the Left.
The field was too crowded for Cooper to cut through, and people weren't ready for the awesomeness of Liz.

GIN1138 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Let's be very clear: no alternative leader is going to be put in place by Labour in the next 6 weeks.

Not sure. Think we should all vote Labor in the locals just in case...

#OperationSaveJezza

My hunch is that Labour will outperform (very low) expectation in the local elections. Certainly if Sion Simon manages to win in the West Midlands, it will be regarded as a major triumph by the Corbynites, and would probably be enough evidence to suggest that things *might* not be quite as bad as the polls were suggesting for any remote chance of some sort of desperate challenge to the leader to be discounted.

If the Lib Dems do reasonably well in the locals then this will be even more helpful - to the Tories. The narrative that they are trying to ram home - namely, that this victory still isn't in the bag - would be greatly reinforced.

Scott_P said:

@jimwaterson: Trying to contact local UKIP branches based on 2016 phone numbers = string of people saying "sorry I've joined the Tories/been kicked out".

This is an ex-People's Army. It is in headlong retreat.

https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/856552838247350273

freetochoose said:

ydoethur said:

freetochoose said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I would just like to say that I am delighted with the direction of travel and support Theresa May but I am not counting chickens yet. It does look as if nothing can stop TM getting a good majority but a landslide may or may not happen and it is too premature to call it a wipe out of labour.

With all these polls can someone explain to me exactly what is happening with the Lib Dems. It looks as if they are being drowned out and Brexit is not the winner they thought it was. How many gains for them would be realistic on this polling

I would ignore the national % for the Libs, they are very good at targetting seats.

Health warning - we all thought that last time too!

Perhaps I should add the caveat compared to Ukip who prefer a scattergun approach.

This is of course true.

But that is like saying somebody's agricultural policy proved slightly less disastrous than Mao's. If that's the only comparison...

Scott_P said:

Casino_Royale said:

Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?

Pathetic.

They were pitching at the country. not the membership.

You can argue that was dumb, as it cost them the leadership, but ti would have given them a chance now.

Unlike Corbyn.

The bigger mistake was not resigning the whip when he stayed after the vote of no confidence.

Their pitch to the country was just as crap: vacuous Blairism-plus, ContinuityBrown and I'maScouserwhowenttoCambridgeandhasneverkissedaTory.

Where are the serious thinkers in Labour?

Are there any?

The big mistake(s) Labour have made is to take almost all their voters outside the core cities for granted, ceased to make themselves relevant in an era where There is No Money Left, maintained a total tin ear for the concept of nationhood, and relied almost exclusively on the cuts the Tories have made to do all the hard work for them.

Corbyn could fall under a bus tomorrow, and none of that would go away.

Report from Wrexham terrible for labour and looks gone

kle4 said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

To my fellow blues, calm down, a single vote has yet to be cast.

You don't want to become the IOS de nos jours

Correct. This is entertaining, but there is already a lot of hubris around.

Some bad news should happen for the Tories soon, otherwise the hubristic triumphalism may be difficult to resist - in fairness I cannot blame some of them. For now plenty are doing their best to be cautious, quietly confident, but just as Lab MPs may start to crack if this keeps up for 6 weeks, Tories surely will too, in the opposite direction.

I think a lot of us find these numbers all too good to be true and so are having difficulty truly believing it. I think the real danger of hubris damaging the prospects will come in 2-3 weeks more of such numbers, when they are no longer shocking but are taken for granted.

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

ydoethur said:

One personal thought - Ynys Mon. I really cannot see the Tories taking it. Yes, yes, we can talk about mathematics and swings but let's also remember it is one of the poorest places in Europe (never mind Britain) and it is very much a Welsh language stronghold. Neither are exactly fertile starting points for the blues.

Particularly in light of this announcement today, I would argue the value is in a Plaid gain:

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/former-plaid-leader-ieuan-wyn-12935317

But it should also be remembered that regardless of national swings, the last sitting MP to be defeated here was Meghan Lloyd George in 1950.

You can get 16/1 on Labour keeping Ynys Mon. Is that worth a flutter?

Alastair, where can I find the market on this?

Sky Bet - they have a range of constituency bets that you can put £1.37 on if you're lucky.

Many thanks.

Now is not the time, for now the Scots agree
"Now is not the time" according to May, for a second independence referendum. This was regarded by some in the SNP as a gift that they could use to their advantage:

See how Westminster is is denying democracy for Scotland,
See how they are overruling the "will" of the Scottish Parliament etc.
It can only increase the support for independence.

As usual these threats of a dramatic change in support for independence were hope over reality as the latest crop of polls show.

We remain largely on trend across the board and spot on trend when it comes to the log line of best fit. This implies a slight narrowing of the polls that we have already seen and is nothing new. For now then, it would seem 'now is not the time' for most Scots.

http://rwbblog.blogspot.co.id/2017/04/now-is-not-time-for-now-scots-agree.html?m=1

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126

Anyone know the detail behind this yet?

Scrapheap_as_was said:

RobD said:

Interesting, looks as though the LDs are standing against the Speaker.

you don't read my posts any more?

I'm hurt and distressed.....

I must have been asleep, old boy!

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

Casino_Royale said:

Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?

Pathetic.

They were pitching at the country. not the membership.

You can argue that was dumb, as it cost them the leadership, but ti would have given them a chance now.

Unlike Corbyn.

The bigger mistake was not resigning the whip when he stayed after the vote of no confidence.

Their pitch to the country was just as crap: vacuous Blairism-plus, ContinuityBrown and I'maScouserwhowenttoCambridgeandhasneverkissedaTory.

Where are the serious thinkers in Labour?

Are there any?

The big mistake(s) Labour have made is to take almost all their voters outside the core cities for granted, ceased to make themselves relevant in an era where There is No Money Left, maintained a total tin ear for the concept of nationhood, and relied almost exclusively on the cuts the Tories have made to do all the hard work for them.

Corbyn could fall under a bus tomorrow, and none of that would go away.

Do one. You don't come back from Ed Miliband and then elect a 'thinker'

Gallowgate said:

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126

Anyone know the detail behind this yet?

Yes, it's May on manoeuvres on Labour's lawn.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I would just like to say that I am delighted with the direction of travel and support Theresa May but I am not counting chickens yet. It does look as if nothing can stop TM getting a good majority but a landslide may or may not happen and it is too premature to call it a wipe out of labour.

With all these polls can someone explain to me exactly what is happening with the Lib Dems. It looks as if they are being drowned out and Brexit is not the winner they thought it was. How many gains for them would be realistic on this polling

I agree re: Mrs May. I can't see her not getting a good majority, but the Tories must work really hard between now and polling day to further discredit Corbyn, and Labour, and to encourage people to get out there and vote for them.

As far as the LDs are concerned, I think that the hard line Remain stance is of limited electoral value, as you suggest: just because 48% of the population voted Remain, some people behave as if that choice will be the primary governing factor in their voting behaviour. This is patent nonsense. I would contend that most Remain voters - even if they are still worried by Brexit - are not distraught Continuity Remainers. They either weighed a decision on Brexit carefully before deciding that Remain was the better option, or picked sides based on their perception of their own economic self-interest and stability. I think there was probably not all that much liking for the EU as an institution in the Remain cohort, still less genuine emotional attachment to the concept of European unity.

In short, the bulk of Remain voters are voting in this election (outside of Scotland and NI, where the dynamics are very different) to pick a Government. The choice available is between May and Corbyn, not May, Corbyn and Farron. You are quite right to suggest that the Lib Dems are getting drowned out in this binary situation, and when they do get air time they spend all of it banging on about Europe: the Lib Dems have become, in essence, Anti-Ukip. A one issue party. And that's a pitch with limited appeal outside of their irreducible core - hence the glacial speed with which their poll ratings have picked up since the EU referendum, and the fact that they appear to have levelled off again.

I wrote an essay on the Lib Dem target seats the other day. In brief, I expect them to make gains (they still count as a decent opposition to the incumbent party in some constituencies, and are very good at targetting their resources and at pavement pounding,) but the number of realistic yellow targets is rather limited, and IMHO they'll have had a great night come June 9th if they've managed to get to 20 seats. In total. Not 20 gains.

CommanderShepard said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

To my fellow blues, calm down, a single vote has yet to be cast.

You don't want to become the IOS de nos jours

TheScreamingEagles said:

To my fellow blues, calm down, a single vote has yet to be cast.

You don't want to become the IOS de nos jours

I agree with TSE. Hubris can still bite the Tories and Hubris is just a step away from being the nasty party again.

I am cautious and not counting chickens. However the decapitation of Corbyn and labour is needed to open the way to a new social democratic party.

DavidL said:

Gallowgate said:

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126

Anyone know the detail behind this yet?

Ask Ed Miliband, its his idea.

There will be a cap on the standard, variable rates which millions remain on, without switching iirc.

ydoethur said:

freetochoose said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I would just like to say that I am delighted with the direction of travel and support Theresa May but I am not counting chickens yet. It does look as if nothing can stop TM getting a good majority but a landslide may or may not happen and it is too premature to call it a wipe out of labour.

With all these polls can someone explain to me exactly what is happening with the Lib Dems. It looks as if they are being drowned out and Brexit is not the winner they thought it was. How many gains for them would be realistic on this polling

I would ignore the national % for the Libs, they are very good at targetting seats.

Health warning - we all thought that last time too!

This time around they're not carrying so much baggage from the Coalition, and they're a pony with a trick. Even if it is only one.

One thing is for sure - if these polls do not cause disaffected Labour voters from returning for no reason other than to save the party from an absolute shellacking, then very little will.

Still edging around 1-2 of 25% on GB wide figures though. It's odd.

Black_Rook said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I would just like to say that I am delighted with the direction of travel and support Theresa May but I am not counting chickens yet. It does look as if nothing can stop TM getting a good majority but a landslide may or may not happen and it is too premature to call it a wipe out of labour.

With all these polls can someone explain to me exactly what is happening with the Lib Dems. It looks as if they are being drowned out and Brexit is not the winner they thought it was. How many gains for them would be realistic on this polling

I agree re: Mrs May. I can't see her not getting a good majority, but the Tories must work really hard between now and polling day to further discredit Corbyn, and Labour, and to encourage people to get out there and vote for them.

As far as the LDs are concerned, I think that the hard line Remain stance is of limited electoral value, as you suggest: just because 48% of the population voted Remain, some people behave as if that choice will be the primary governing factor in their voting behaviour. This is patent nonsense. I would contend that most Remain voters - even if they are still worried by Brexit - are not distraught Continuity Remainers. They either weighed a decision on Brexit carefully before deciding that Remain was the better option, or picked sides based on their perception of their own economic self-interest and stability. I think there was probably not all that much liking for the EU as an institution in the Remain cohort, still less genuine emotional attachment to the concept of European unity.

In short, the bulk of Remain voters are voting in this election (outside of Scotland and NI, where the dynamics are very different) to pick a Government. The choice available is between May and Corbyn, not May, Corbyn and Farron. You are quite right to suggest that the Lib Dems are getting drowned out in this binary situation, and when they do get air time they spend all of it banging on about Europe: the Lib Dems have become, in essence, Anti-Ukip. A one issue party. And that's a pitch with limited appeal outside of their irreducible core - hence the glacial speed with which their poll ratings have picked up since the EU referendum, and the fact that they appear to have levelled off again.

I wrote an essay on the Lib Dem target seats the other day. In brief, I expect them to make gains (they still count as a decent opposition to the incumbent party in some constituencies, and are very good at targetting their resources and at pavement pounding,) but the number of realistic yellow targets is rather limited, and IMHO they'll have had a great night come June 9th if they've managed to get to 20 seats. In total. Not 20 gains.

Thanks for that reply - very interesting

kle4 said:

Gallowgate said:

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126

Anyone know the detail behind this yet?

Only that Ed Miliband got there first.

No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.

A 'cap' is different.

Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

RobD said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

RobD said:

Interesting, looks as though the LDs are standing against the Speaker.

you don't read my posts any more?

I'm hurt and distressed.....

I must have been asleep, old boy!

You?

Never!

It sucks. I miss all the fun!

Casino_Royale said:

This might not be a popular point of view, but I'd argue this is just as much the fault of the Labour moderates as it is of Corbyn, who's a symptom, not a cause. And why Labour wouldn't recover much even if they ditched him right now.

Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?

Pathetic.

It's possible that time spent on the back-benches watching the Labour leadership stumble from one disaster to another may have enabled the 2015 leadership contenders to find within themselves the passion for - something - that would fire up the membership.

Mr Blair's & Mr Brown's New Labour had everyone tied down so tightly 'on message' that it probably left many of them tongue-tied on their own genuine passions.

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

Casino_Royale said:

Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?

Pathetic.

They were pitching at the country. not the membership.

You can argue that was dumb, as it cost them the leadership, but ti would have given them a chance now.

Unlike Corbyn.

The bigger mistake was not resigning the whip when he stayed after the vote of no confidence.

Their pitch to the country was just as crap: vacuous Blairism-plus, ContinuityBrown and I'maScouserwhowenttoCambridgeandhasneverkissedaTory.

Where are the serious thinkers in Labour?

Are there any?

The big mistake(s) Labour have made is to take almost all their voters outside the core cities for granted, ceased to make themselves relevant in an era where There is No Money Left, maintained a total tin ear for the concept of nationhood, and relied almost exclusively on the cuts the Tories have made to do all the hard work for them.

Corbyn could fall under a bus tomorrow, and none of that would go away.

With May now recycling Labour policies from its 2015 election manifesto, you do have to wonder if there are any serious thinkers in any political party.

Indeed. It was a foolish idea then and its not got any better.

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

Casino_Royale said:

Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?

Pathetic.

They were pitching at the country. not the membership.

You can argue that was dumb, as it cost them the leadership, but ti would have given them a chance now.

Unlike Corbyn.

The bigger mistake was not resigning the whip when he stayed after the vote of no confidence.

Their pitch to the country was just as crap: vacuous Blairism-plus, ContinuityBrown and I'maScouserwhowenttoCambridgeandhasneverkissedaTory.

Where are the serious thinkers in Labour?

Are there any?

The big mistake(s) Labour have made is to take almost all their voters outside the core cities for granted, ceased to make themselves relevant in an era where There is No Money Left, maintained a total tin ear for the concept of nationhood, and relied almost exclusively on the cuts the Tories have made to do all the hard work for them.

Corbyn could fall under a bus tomorrow, and none of that would go away.

With May now recycling Labour policies from its 2015 election manifesto, you do have to wonder if there are any serious thinkers in any political party.

If there are, they aren't anywhere near the levers of power.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

RobD said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

RobD said:

Interesting, looks as though the LDs are standing against the Speaker.

you don't read my posts any more?

I'm hurt and distressed.....

I must have been asleep, old boy!

You?

Never!

I think Rob meant to say your posts put him to sleep

I was being delicate

CarlottaVance said:

kle4 said:

Gallowgate said:

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126

Anyone know the detail behind this yet?

Only that Ed Miliband got there first.

No. Ed said he would 'freeze' energy prices - meaning in the event of a fall (which duly happened) consumers would be left paying higher prices.

A 'cap' is different.

Need to see details - it may be good politics but iffy policy.

Nope - the 2015 Labour manifesto said this:

"Labour will freeze energy bills until 2017, ensuring that bills can fall but not
rise, and we will give the regulator the power to cut bills this winter. During
the freeze, we will reform the energy market so that it delivers fairer prices
and a better deal for working families."

kle4 said:

Gallowgate said:

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126

Anyone know the detail behind this yet?

Only that Ed Miliband got there first.

That Ed Miliband couldn't make a very similar policy fly, but the Tories think Theresa May can, speaks volumes about the relative credibility of both these leaders and their parties.

That, and the fact that May feels that, whilst she can't quite get away with anything, she has an awful lot of political space in which to write her own agenda.

Surprisingly good spontaneous vibes for the John Lewis chap for midlands mayor in my Brum office today. The office girls knew his name and background and were very positive about him Another repeated Theresa's line on backing her to get a good deal vs Brussels pretty much verbatim. Just anecdotage obviously.

Gallowgate said:

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126

Anyone know the detail behind this yet?

The most interesting thing is not the policy but that it's being presented as Theresa May not Conservatives doing it. Think it's a strategy.

Ynys Mon now 13/8 Con.

CarlottaVance said:

Well, this one's been put to bed....er...

htt://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/856556769174110208

"I'm not going to answer that question...because one's faith is one's personal faith. What counts is your actions and your beliefs in politics".

Funny, Tim, you seem able to proffer an opinion on most other issues of the day, moral or otherwise.

He believes homosexual acts are sinful, or can anyone think of another reason he could not find a way to answer the question? It cannot be that he's answered it directly before, and so won't repeat it, since politicians repeat themselves all the time. But his answer is very poor. But he says he has a great record defending these issues, so how can he believe homosexual acts are sinful?

It will cost him a few votes.

ToryJim said:

Gallowgate said:

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126

Anyone know the detail behind this yet?

The most interesting thing is not the policy but that it's being presented as Theresa May not Conservatives doing it. Think it's a strategy.

And instantly better than Dave's big shiny photoshopped mugshot. She's frighteningly good

ToryJim said:

Gallowgate said:

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126

Anyone know the detail behind this yet?

The most interesting thing is not the policy but that it's being presented as Theresa May not Conservatives doing it. Think it's a strategy.

Good spot.

FattyBolger said:

Surprisingly good spontaneous vibes for the John Lewis chap for midlands mayor in my Brum office today. The office girls knew his name and background and were very positive about him Another repeated Theresa's line on backing her to get a good deal vs Brussels pretty much verbatim. Just anecdotage obviously.

My neighbour spontaneously mentioned the election the other day and reckoned "the John Lewis bloke" was the one to vote for.

So that's at least 2...

Casino_Royale said:

Scott_P said:

Casino_Royale said:

Why was it they so comprehensively failed to articulate a convincing and passionate alternative to Corbyn to their own membership back in 2015, with all the other pitches seeming so utterly insipid and hollow?

Pathetic.

They were pitching at the country. not the membership.

You can argue that was dumb, as it cost them the leadership, but ti would have given them a chance now.

Unlike Corbyn.

The bigger mistake was not resigning the whip when he stayed after the vote of no confidence.

Their pitch to the country was just as crap: vacuous Blairism-plus, ContinuityBrown and I'maScouserwhowenttoCambridgeandhasneverkissedaTory.

Where are the serious thinkers in Labour?

Are there any?

The big mistake(s) Labour have made is to take almost all their voters outside the core cities for granted, ceased to make themselves relevant in an era where There is No Money Left, maintained a total tin ear for the concept of nationhood, and relied almost exclusively on the cuts the Tories have made to do all the hard work for them.

Corbyn could fall under a bus tomorrow, and none of that would go away.

A week or so back I was in Durham Cathedral and there laid up like the colours of old regiments was a Durham Miners banner which contained the portraits of three heroes of the early Labour Movement. I sat and looked at that banner and thought about those men, their times and what they tried to achieve and my mind moved on to more modern times. Attlee, Bevan, Bevin, Dalton, Ede, Wilkinson and their ilk. Then I thought about our modern Labour politicians, Butler, Cooper, Abbott, Watson etc and, of course, the fool in chief, Corbyn. To stop myself feeling sick I had to take Herself off for a drink.

Prodicus said:

Ynys Mon now 13/8 Con.

And I've backed Labour to win it: a whole £10...

CarlottaVance said:

Well, this one's been put to bed....er...

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/856556769174110208

The Lib Dems were pounding the streets of Oval yesterday, disturbing Sunday lunches. I wonder if this issue
came up. The avoidance is deafening. It's clear as day what his beliefs are.

dyedwoolie said:

ToryJim said:

Gallowgate said:

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/856553714915717126

Anyone know the detail behind this yet?

The most interesting thing is not the policy but that it's being presented as Theresa May not Conservatives doing it. Think it's a strategy.

And instantly better than Dave's big shiny photoshopped mugshot. She's frighteningly good

Hence why polling is suggesting she's about to treat the Labour Party like a mop.

Makes sense:

"Surge in betting on Jeremy Corbyn to become prime minister after he promises four extra bank holidays
Labour leader currently​ accounts for nearly half of bets on who will be the next PM, as one bookmaker cut odds over the weekend"

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-prime-minister-surge-in-bets-announcement-four-extra-bank-holidays-labour-leader-party-a7699121.html