Good. I'm a fan of sticking to conventions if there is no obvious benefit to changing, but given this one is not even universally followed, they all should stand.
Labour and the SDP stood against Speaker Weatherill in 1987
If not already mentioned, Norstat have started polling in the UK, for the Express. Their first poll puts the Conservatives ahead by 42/26%.
It's in @TSE e-mail spam folder along with thousands of requests from lady whip wielders in north west England.
I did post that poll the other night on PB.
We're not reading too much into that poll until we see tables given it is a new pollster and well it is The Express, who have a shocking record when reporting polls.
(Though the Mail on Sunday, wins this week's polling dunce award)
One interesting little snippet from the POTFR election by our old friends in the Auld Aliiance, is that despite all the terrorist attacks in Paris over the past few years, Len Pen polled under 5% of the vote in the French capital.
In the Paris departement itself but then Hillary won Manhattan and Brooklyn by a landslide too as Remain did in inner London. In the outer suburbs of Paris Le Pen got close to her national score as Leave did in suburban outer London and Trump did in Queens and Staten Island
Morning HYUFD.
I had to turn in about midnite. Have you conceded yet, or do you still think Le Pen can still nick it?
. There are so many shrewdies operating the exchanges that prices are rarely out by much.
No, they really really are.
Le Pen was 6-1 for 30-40% a couple of days ago. That was staggeringly wrong.
There are always exceptions which is why I said rarely not never. My point is few people have any concept of value, its a subjective thing, most simply bet on what they want or expect to happen irrespective of the price.
I have a simple rule for betting on politics (which those of a more objective nature wouldn't need): only bet on things you don't want to happen. That way if you lose the bet you are still happy. My first bet was on Ed Balls to hold his seat at the 2010 election.
I'd be interested to know why so many of our regular posters are mournful that France looks set to pick a moderate centrist president who isn't fascist or batshit mental.
It's a shame that we aren't going to get the amusement of Le Pen vs Melanchon! Macron is the living embodiment of trendy metrosexual right-on chic. A gay Tony Blair with better suits. France has some real problems. He ain't gonna sort them. But, like Trudeau in Canada, the MSM will love him while his country continues to circle the pan. France basically needs a Maggie. Why is it is so seemingly impossible for them to elect a sensible centre-right non-loony non-shiney teeth candidate?
As I wonder through France's fifth largest city and see a vibrant cafe society with more museums art galleries statues and street art than you'd see anywhere in England outside London and an attractive healthy cultured population where the average waiter knows more about film and philosophy than 95% of the English
.......and compare it to Leeds where an obese population waddle around believing fine dining is an evening at Wetherspoons and culture is an hour with Jeremy Kyle I wonder where the French went wrong
If not already mentioned, Norstat have started polling in the UK, for the Express. Their first poll puts the Conservatives ahead by 42/26%.
It's in @TSE e-mail spam folder along with thousands of requests from lady whip wielders in north west England.
I did post that poll the other night on PB.
We're not reading too much into that poll until we see tables given it is a new pollster and well it is The Express, who have a shocking record when reporting polls.
(Though the Mail on Sunday, wins this week's polling dunce award)
So how's this cohabitation thingy going to work for Macron, assuming he wins?
Is President Macron going to be as impotent as a eunuch?
Yes, so would Le Pen. The chances of serious reform coming from either is close to zero. It's probably why the leftist dirty tricks campaign focussed on Fillon, he was the only candidate who had any chance of actually making any changes to France.
Sometimes I think it's easier for those on the Left do make necessary changes than those on the Right. It was Gerhard Schroeder who liberalised the German labour market, and it was Tony Blair who introduced tuition fees in the UK.
He will need a backbone of steel to stand up to the vested interests in France: the unions, the professional bodies, the truckers, the farmers, etc. He also doesn't have any answer to the problems of France's large, non-integrated, Muslim minority. (Mind you, nor did any of the other candidates.)
Macron does at least realise that the biggest reason why France's economy has stagnated is because social charges on employees are too high, and the labour market is among the least flexible in the world. Hopefully, he can copy the playbook of Schroeder, Thatcher and Rajoy, and make the necessary changes. It will be good for France and good for the world if he does.
But it will be hard: very, very hard. (As it would have been for Fillon too.)
I'd be interested to know why so many of our regular posters are mournful that France looks set to pick a moderate centrist president who isn't fascist or batshit mental.
It's a shame that we aren't going to get the amusement of Le Pen vs Melanchon! Macron is the living embodiment of trendy metrosexual right-on chic. A gay Tony Blair with better suits. France has some real problems. He ain't gonna sort them. But, like Trudeau in Canada, the MSM will love him while his country continues to circle the pan. France basically needs a Maggie. Why is it is so seemingly impossible for them to elect a sensible centre-right non-loony non-shiney teeth candidate?
As I wonder through France's fifth largest city and see a vibrant cafe society with more museums art galleries statues and street art than you'd see anywhere in England outside London and an attractive healthy cultured population where the average waiter knows more about film and philosophy than 95% of the English
.......and compare it to Leeds where an obese population waddle around believing fine dining is an evening at Wetherspoons and culture is an hour with Jeremy Kyle I wonder where the French went wrong
Do you spend time in the less attractive districts?
One interesting little snippet from the POTFR election by our old friends in the Auld Aliiance, is that despite all the terrorist attacks in Paris over the past few years, Len Pen polled under 5% of the vote in the French capital.
In the Paris departement itself but then Hillary won Manhattan and Brooklyn by a landslide too as Remain did in inner London. In the outer suburbs of Paris Le Pen got close to her national score as Leave did in suburban outer London and Trump did in Queens and Staten Island
Morning HYUFD.
I had to turn in about midnite. Have you conceded yet, or do you still think Le Pen can still nick it?
By the way, the biggest 'gimme' bet was the 1.3 you could get for several hours on who would win the first round vote share. People - just as in the US - fixated on the raw vote figures and missed the fact that all of Macron's best (and Le Pen's worst) areas came at the end of the count.
. There are so many shrewdies operating the exchanges that prices are rarely out by much.
No, they really really are.
Le Pen was 6-1 for 30-40% a couple of days ago. That was staggeringly wrong.
There are always exceptions which is why I said rarely not never. My point is few people have any concept of value, its a subjective thing, most simply bet on what they want or expect to happen irrespective of the price.
The Republican Nomination market was staggeringly and obviously wrong on a level hard to comprehend.
I'd be interested to know why so many of our regular posters are mournful that France looks set to pick a moderate centrist president who isn't fascist or batshit mental.
It's a shame that we aren't going to get the amusement of Le Pen vs Melanchon! Macron is the living embodiment of trendy metrosexual right-on chic. A gay Tony Blair with better suits. France has some real problems. He ain't gonna sort them. But, like Trudeau in Canada, the MSM will love him while his country continues to circle the pan. France basically needs a Maggie. Why is it is so seemingly impossible for them to elect a sensible centre-right non-loony non-shiney teeth candidate?
As I wonder through France's fifth largest city and see a vibrant cafe society with more museums art galleries statues and street art than you'd see anywhere in England outside London and an attractive healthy cultured population where the average waiter knows more about film and philosophy than 95% of the English
.......and compare it to Leeds where an obese population waddle around believing fine dining is an evening at Wetherspoons and culture is an hour with Jeremy Kyle I wonder where the French went wrong
I don't remember over 80 people being killed in a terrorist attack in Leeds in the last year.
Perhaps you should visit the nearest banlieue for your answer or failing that head 200km west to Marseille.
I like Macron, just worried about how he can govern.
As for my fealty to Osborne, I'm Cameroon/Osbornite until the very end, it's like the mafia, the oath lasts until death.
We've merely gone to exile, like the Obi Wan and Yoda after Palpatine became Chancellor.
Or like when Michael was sent to Sicily in The Godfather.
We will be back.
Looking from the outside, it's fascinating.
Many of the Conservative MPs elected in 2010 and 2015 owe their place to Cameron and became candidates under his leadership and presumably supported him right up to the point when it became impractical to do so (about 3am on June 24th last year).
There will be those who couldn't win under Cameron but who could win under May and may feel more loyalty to her after the 8/6 landslide.
As history tells us, none of that matters and when May goes, whether voluntarily, via her own MPs or via the electorate, the new leader can airbrush history just as May has done to the Coalition years. The likes of Johnson and Javid will still be young enough to try for the leadership in 2022 or thereafter and I can't see May serving two full terms so yes, it's a question of biding your time and ensuring your chosen candidate develops the connections within the Parliamentary party.
Actually based on the map above Le Pen won about 47 departements to Macron's 42 so if France had an electoral college system like the US and no runoff like the US she may well have won the electoral college as Trump did even if Macron, like Hillary, won the popular vote
Last night you were desperately trying to prove that in actual vote terms Le Pen was winning. It turned out the exit polls were spot on.
Now you are trying the stupid US electoral college tactics. France is a more enlightened country.
If Le Pen had won ALL the departments, she would still lose. France has the added insurance policy of the second vote. The chances of Le Pen or FN winning any department with 50% of the votes is very slim. That is why they have only 2 MLAs. This time they might get 10 maybe.
If not already mentioned, Norstat have started polling in the UK, for the Express. Their first poll puts the Conservatives ahead by 42/26%.
It's in @TSE e-mail spam folder along with thousands of requests from lady whip wielders in north west England.
I did post that poll the other night on PB.
We're not reading too much into that poll until we see tables given it is a new pollster and well it is The Express, who have a shocking record when reporting polls.
(Though the Mail on Sunday, wins this week's polling dunce award)
I have come to the conclusion that it's not Corbyn's fault that Labour are doing so badly in the polls here, it's Labour in general. We have had two elections in EU member nations where the Socialists (i.e members of the same European grouping that Labour sit in) have crashed and burned. In the Netherlands the Labour grouping collapsed from 25% in 2012 to just 6% and now in France, they have collapsed from 29% to just 6% (an average drop in those two countries of -21%). I don't think that it will be that bad here in the UK for Labour, but the trend does appear to be continuing here in the UK. Socialists in Europe are being hammered.
There is something in what you say but Corbyn is going to make things much worse. He's a disgraceful candidate to put up as Prime Minister.
The Socialists' problem is that their White working class supporters are moving right, and their metropolitan supporters are moving left.
...as the Guardian article points out, May looks like she is trying to recapture the working class vote... Certainly Labour have chosen themselves in Jeremy Corbyn a leader who is direct from central casting as the perfect candidate to rile Middle England. Joining Labour and voting for Corbyn was described by George Osborne as 'the best £3 I ever spent'.
With a slight fib about your age, you could join for £1 and vote.
I like Macron, just worried about how he can govern.
As for my fealty to Osborne, I'm Cameroon/Osbornite until the very end, it's like the mafia, the oath lasts until death.
We've merely gone to exile, like the Obi Wan and Yoda after Palpatine became Chancellor.
Or like when Michael was sent to Sicily in The Godfather.
We will be back.
Looking from the outside, it's fascinating.
Many of the Conservative MPs elected in 2010 and 2015 owe their place to Cameron and became candidates under his leadership and presumably supported him right up to the point when it became impractical to do so (about 3am on June 24th last year).
There will be those who couldn't win under Cameron but who could win under May and may feel more loyalty to her after the 8/6 landslide.
As history tells us, none of that matters and when May goes, whether voluntarily, via her own MPs or via the electorate, the new leader can airbrush history just as May has done to the Coalition years. The likes of Johnson and Javid will still be young enough to try for the leadership in 2022 or thereafter and I can't see May serving two full terms so yes, it's a question of biding your time and ensuring your chosen candidate develops the connections within the Parliamentary party.
Many of them realised, with horror on June 24th, that they'd spent years kissing the wrong arse.
. There are so many shrewdies operating the exchanges that prices are rarely out by much.
No, they really really are.
Le Pen was 6-1 for 30-40% a couple of days ago. That was staggeringly wrong.
There are always exceptions which is why I said rarely not never. My point is few people have any concept of value, its a subjective thing, most simply bet on what they want or expect to happen irrespective of the price.
I don't disagree.
Value in betting is a complicated (and fuzzy) concept, misunderstood and misused by a lot of casual punters.
One of the better ways to measure your ability to recognize value is whether the odds shorten after you place your bets (regardless of whether the bet eventually wins). One reason bookies are fairly sanguine offering BOG on horse races is that they don't mind boosting winnings for punters who take odds which lengthen before the off.
Those punters aren't sharp, so are likely to lose in the long run.
Exactly, 99% of punters are casual, they just want a bit of fun, I'm the same. I've been a punter for nearly 40 years, never won or lost enough to change my life but I like to think I understand odds and probabilities to an extent, however when eg Spurs are involved I'm irrational.
Read the bets on here, the vast are placed where the bettor is putting his money on an outcome he WANTS to happen, and then convinces himself he has value.
Liverpool, with their huge support, are the perfect example of being consistently overbet and consequently bad value.
I must admit, I'm staggered that the LDs are 2-1 to win Vauxhall. This is a seat where:
- the LDs did poorly in last year's GLA elections - they have next to no presence on the council - the activists are likely to be next door working for Simon Hughes - the LDs were fourth in 2015 - the LDs were close to 50% behind Labour
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
I took the view, pre-referendum, that if we had voted Remain that we had to go into it properly - full integration, cooperation and harmonisation. It's the only way to make the thing work.
If we had voted Remain that wouldn't have been an option. Cameron ruled out 'ever closer union' and said the UK would never join the Euro.
We've been paying the price for John Major's dithering 'wait and see' policy for far too long. Luckily that unhappy fudge has been decisively rejected so when public opinion swings back as it inevitably will, going 'all in' will have to be on the table. People might even trust a leader like May to be able make it work for Britain.
It doesn't matter what we think in isolation, William.
Harmonisation requires the 28 to sign up to it.
Common tax and social welfare policies. A European minimum wage. A common asylum, immigration policy.
They can't even agree on quotas to take a few hundred asylum seekers.
Good. I'm a fan of sticking to conventions if there is no obvious benefit to changing, but given this one is not even universally followed, they all should stand.
Labour and the SDP stood against Speaker Weatherill in 1987
Didn't some Frenchman stand against Bercow himself ?
I have come to the conclusion that it's not Corbyn's fault that Labour are doing so badly in the polls here, it's Labour in general. We have had two elections in EU member nations where the Socialists (i.e members of the same European grouping that Labour sit in) have crashed and burned. In the Netherlands the Labour grouping collapsed from 25% in 2012 to just 6% and now in France, they have collapsed from 29% to just 6% (an average drop in those two countries of -21%). I don't think that it will be that bad here in the UK for Labour, but the trend does appear to be continuing here in the UK. Socialists in Europe are being hammered.
There is something in what you say but Corbyn is going to make things much worse. He's a disgraceful candidate to put up as Prime Minister.
The Socialists' problem is that their White working class supporters are moving right, and their metropolitan supporters are moving left.
Yes.
I do wonder how much social values are secondary influences of economic interests, actually, for the non political obsessives.
Professional middle classes see their economic interests best served by globalisation and internationalism, whilst working class voters see them as best served by the nation state.
If that ceased to be the case (either which way) how long would it be before the social values changed too?
Canvassing amongst the £m-plus houses over the weekend I can tell you that the left, Corbyn-supporting, metropolitan, champagne socialist is far from a dying breed.
Did you knock on my door ? I am not voting for Corbyn.
I'd be interested to know why so many of our regular posters are mournful that France looks set to pick a moderate centrist president who isn't fascist or batshit mental.
It's a shame that we aren't going to get the amusement of Le Pen vs Melanchon! Macron is the living embodiment of trendy metrosexual right-on chic. A gay Tony Blair with better suits. France has some real problems. He ain't gonna sort them. But, like Trudeau in Canada, the MSM will love him while his country continues to circle the pan. France basically needs a Maggie. Why is it is so seemingly impossible for them to elect a sensible centre-right non-loony non-shiney teeth candidate?
As I wonder through France's fifth largest city and see a vibrant cafe society with more museums art galleries statues and street art than you'd see anywhere in England outside London and an attractive healthy cultured population where the average waiter knows more about film and philosophy than 95% of the English
.......and compare it to Leeds where an obese population waddle around believing fine dining is an evening at Wetherspoons and culture is an hour with Jeremy Kyle I wonder where the French went wrong
Just to point that while many, including me, agree with Rogers thrust on the EU, this is total codswallop.
Are Ladbrokes currently in the process of posting up a whole raft of GE Constituency betting markets 2/3 days behind PP & Betfair? That might explain why their entire website is very curiously down on a Monday morning.
I'd be interested to know why so many of our regular posters are mournful that France looks set to pick a moderate centrist president who isn't fascist or batshit mental.
It's a shame that we aren't going to get the amusement of Le Pen vs Melanchon! Macron is the living embodiment of trendy metrosexual right-on chic. A gay Tony Blair with better suits. France has some real problems. He ain't gonna sort them. But, like Trudeau in Canada, the MSM will love him while his country continues to circle the pan. France basically needs a Maggie. Why is it is so seemingly impossible for them to elect a sensible centre-right non-loony non-shiney teeth candidate?
As I wonder through France's fifth largest city and see a vibrant cafe society with more museums art galleries statues and street art than you'd see anywhere in England outside London and an attractive healthy cultured population where the average waiter knows more about film and philosophy than 95% of the English
.......and compare it to Leeds where an obese population waddle around believing fine dining is an evening at Wetherspoons and culture is an hour with Jeremy Kyle I wonder where the French went wrong
. There are so many shrewdies operating the exchanges that prices are rarely out by much.
No, they really really are.
Le Pen was 6-1 for 30-40% a couple of days ago. That was staggeringly wrong.
There are always exceptions which is why I said rarely not never. My point is few people have any concept of value, its a subjective thing, most simply bet on what they want or expect to happen irrespective of the price.
I don't disagree.
Value in betting is a complicated (and fuzzy) concept, misunderstood and misused by a lot of casual punters.
Those punters aren't sharp, so are likely to lose in the long run.
Read the bets on here, the vast are placed where the bettor is putting his money on an outcome he WANTS to happen, and then convinces himself he has value.
Liverpool, with their huge support, are the perfect example of being consistently overbet and consequently bad value.
You are plain wrong, sorry. Lots of PBers admit to losing bets - it's very common. Also, many of us only bet on outcomes we oppose - I would be one such bettor.
Actually based on the map above Le Pen won about 47 departements to Macron's 42 so if France had an electoral college system like the US and no runoff like the US she may well have won the electoral college as Trump did even if Macron, like Hillary, won the popular vote
Except that if france had the same system as the states voters wouldn't have voted for the minor candidates. Le Pen would have been hammered in the first and only round
I must admit, I'm staggered that the LDs are 2-1 to win Vauxhall. This is a seat where:
- the LDs did poorly in last year's GLA elections - they have next to no presence on the council - the activists are likely to be next door working for Simon Hughes - the LDs were fourth in 2015 - the LDs were close to 50% behind Labour
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Are Ladbrokes currently in the process of posting up a whole raft of GE Constituency betting markets 2/3 days behind PP & Betfair? That might explain why their entire website is very curiously down on a Monday morning.
I'd be interested to know why so many of our regular posters are mournful that France looks set to pick a moderate centrist president who isn't fascist or batshit mental.
It's a shame that we aren't going to get the amusement of Le Pen vs Melanchon! Macron is the living embodiment of trendy metrosexual right-on chic. A gay Tony Blair with better suits. France has some real problems. He ain't gonna sort them. But, like Trudeau in Canada, the MSM will love him while his country continues to circle the pan. France basically needs a Maggie. Why is it is so seemingly impossible for them to elect a sensible centre-right non-loony non-shiney teeth candidate?
As I wonder through France's fifth largest city and see a vibrant cafe society with more museums art galleries statues and street art than you'd see anywhere in England outside London and an attractive healthy cultured population where the average waiter knows more about film and philosophy than 95% of the English
.......and compare it to Leeds where an obese population waddle around believing fine dining is an evening at Wetherspoons and culture is an hour with Jeremy Kyle I wonder where the French went wrong
A deeply metropolitan viewpoint. As a wealthy, lefty, educated, urbanite intellectual I understand completely why Sartre and Rousseau, Depardieu and Auteuil, Chanel and Yves Saint-Laurent tickle your G-spot. Ca plane pour moi. But across Europe those on the wrong side of the tracks are beyond fed up. Drive east 40 minutes from the Champs-Elysees and look at the world those French live in. Is their crying need for more museums? Effing street art? Film and philosophy? FFS! You seem to espouse a very 'qu'ils mangent de la brioche' attitude to their lives. And I also think you are being sneeringly and ignorantly condescending of UK urban life. They're not all fat chavs north of Watford. I've visited alot of UK towns and cities in my new role since coming back from the Hague. I've been really impressed with how very pleasant many British places are - places that I had a really crappy mental image of before I actually went there. I'd include in that York, Birmingham, Nottingham, Newcastle, Leeds, and Manchester. Your comments about Leeds say way more about you than about Leeds.
What amazes me is how so many of the politicos on here are completely out of touch with public opinion and get distressed when an election produces a result they weren't expecting.
The other amazing thing is that nobody on here has ever had a losing bet.
I did, a few days ago on the election date. I was F ING mortified.
I can also guarantee you however that several posters here - Tissue Price, Richard Nabavi, Alastair Meeks, @Gettingbetter and others will have returns on investments in political betting that are MILES higher than any horse racing tipster. If there were as many political betting events as horse races we'd be up millions.
PB is almost like a hive mind of knowledge and its the details we pick up on.
Notably Andy's spreadsheet and the EU Referendum or Betfair getting constituency odds wrong.
The defeat of bercow would cap portillo and balls put together. Sadly it isn't going to happen.no embarrassments either,now his wife is silenced and invisible. Bercow must be nailed on
. There are so many shrewdies operating the exchanges that prices are rarely out by much.
No, they really really are.
Le Pen was 6-1 for 30-40% a couple of days ago. That was staggeringly wrong.
There are always exceptions which is why I said rarely not never. My point is few people have any concept of value, its a subjective thing, most simply bet on what they want or expect to happen irrespective of the price.
I have a simple rule for betting on politics (which those of a more objective nature wouldn't need): only bet on things you don't want to happen. That way if you lose the bet you are still happy. My first bet was on Ed Balls to hold his seat at the 2010 election.
My Scotland betting is following that Maxim to a T at the moment.
I must admit, I'm staggered that the LDs are 2-1 to win Vauxhall. This is a seat where:
- the LDs did poorly in last year's GLA elections - they have next to no presence on the council - the activists are likely to be next door working for Simon Hughes - the LDs were fourth in 2015 - the LDs were close to 50% behind Labour
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Labour 38% Con 29% LD 18%
I'm gutted I didn't jump in at the time (I was reading the thread and considered it!) I think your / @AlastairMeeks' / @Black_Rook's LD analysis is generally excellent but I do wonder whether the Hoey/Farage factor might be a massive narrative changer here.
I must admit, I'm staggered that the LDs are 2-1 to win Vauxhall. This is a seat where:
- the LDs did poorly in last year's GLA elections - they have next to no presence on the council - the activists are likely to be next door working for Simon Hughes - the LDs were fourth in 2015 - the LDs were close to 50% behind Labour
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Labour 38% Con 29% LD 18%
Needless to say, the LDs don't set the odds and your summation isn't unrealistic. It was interesting to see Tim in Bermondsey yesterday morning for example supporting Simon Hughes.
I think you'll find the one group of people not talking up LD prospects is or are the LDs. We know how tough it will be in the way of the May tidal wave in Conservative held seats and there aren't that many Labour-held seats where we are a strong contender though with anecdotal evidence of the Labour vote in a state of collapse outside a few areas it may well be the Labour seats are the place to look for surprises and for money making opportunities.
I wouldn't advise a big bet on the Conservatives winning East Ham, however. I wouldn't even advise a small bet - I've not seen any prices, presumably it's 1-200 Labour.
Mr. Price, ha, sounds like a polite way of saying 'absolutely not'.
I was just wondering if Conservatives would see a vote for the yellows there as a way of getting rid of their turbulent Speaker.
I'm in the Buckingham disenfranchised constituency. Most people that I speak to are generally annoyed that they do not get a proper choice like the rest of the country, no matter their political inclinations. General view is that the speaker should somehow be separated out and to give all voters a proper choice.
At the last election there was a choice of Bercow, UKIP or Green. I'm Brexit-supporting, relatively socially liberal (excepting immigration where I have a problem with the v. large numbers), fiscally conservative but who doesn't like Bercow - it didn't leave me with much choice.
Where we live is very popular with commuters going into London (often who have moved from London) and there is quite a high density of champagne socialist Remain supporters. These will be highly likely to vote LibDem. However, I don't think that will be the case through the rest of the constituency (it is quite a large one in terms of area). John Bercow is quite well likely in the constituency as he does lots of local events etc. and therefore I expect him to come home easily. I would expect the LibDems to come in second.
My preference to vote for would be for a Brexit supporting Conservative. I don't have that option however!
I'd be interested to know why so many of our regular posters are mournful that France looks set to pick a moderate centrist president who isn't fascist or batshit mental.
..........or why now we are leaving the EU so many want it to fail.
It's a British characteristic summed up by Gore Vidal 'Every time a friend succeeds something Inside me dies'
It's such a British characteristic that we use a German word for it...
... and the quote made to illustrate it is from an American.
Mr. Richard, indeed, the spreadsheet of Mr. JS on 2015 election night put the site a day and a half ahead of the broadcasters.
As an aside, I was contemplating Verstappen to win Russia (around 21-26) and have decided against it. Very good driver, his car isn't fast enough. It is credible but requires both Vettel and Hamilton to have problems, and for neither Raikkonen nor Bottas to be able to grab the victory.
Not impossible. But not likely either.
Edited extra bit: besides, I reckon his odds will slide even more, so even if I were interested I'd probably wait until after qualifying. I think Ricciardo's been doing a better job there, so Verstappen would probably start 6th or so.
I must admit, I'm staggered that the LDs are 2-1 to win Vauxhall. This is a seat where:
- the LDs did poorly in last year's GLA elections - they have next to no presence on the council - the activists are likely to be next door working for Simon Hughes - the LDs were fourth in 2015 - the LDs were close to 50% behind Labour
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Labour 38% Con 29% LD 18%
I'm gutted I didn't jump in at the time (I was reading the thread and considered it!) I think your / @AlastairMeeks' / @Black_Rook's LD analysis is generally excellent but I do wonder whether the Hoey/Farage factor might be a massive narrative changer here.
A substantial chunk of Kate Hoey's own constituency party might be campaigning against her. This slightly out of date local report may be of interest (as can be seen from the later part of the article, it isn't just a Lib Dem puff piece):
@Patrick, why are you so obsessed with Macron's sexuality?
Metrosexual is, despite the name, more an issue of style than sexuality isn't it?
But Patrick used the word "gay".
My issue is with the dishonesty not the sexuality. I frankly couldn't give a shit if he blows goats. But I do think it is dishonest to present himself as something he isn't. Surely the French are liberal enough not to care too?
I must admit, I'm staggered that the LDs are 2-1 to win Vauxhall. This is a seat where:
- the LDs did poorly in last year's GLA elections - they have next to no presence on the council - the activists are likely to be next door working for Simon Hughes - the LDs were fourth in 2015 - the LDs were close to 50% behind Labour
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Labour 38% Con 29% LD 18%
I'm gutted I didn't jump in at the time (I was reading the thread and considered it!) I think your / @AlastairMeeks' / @Black_Rook's LD analysis is generally excellent but I do wonder whether the Hoey/Farage factor might be a massive narrative changer here.
I'd be interested to know why so many of our regular posters are mournful that France looks set to pick a moderate centrist president who isn't fascist or batshit mental.
..........or why now we are leaving the EU so many want it to fail.
It's a British characteristic summed up by Gore Vidal 'Every time a friend succeeds something Inside me dies'
It's such a British characteristic that we use a German word for it...
... and the quote made to illustrate it is from an American.
It's was given a British twist by Morrissey: 'And if they're northern, that makes it even worse.'
I like Macron, just worried about how he can govern.
As for my fealty to Osborne, I'm Cameroon/Osbornite until the very end, it's like the mafia, the oath lasts until death.
We've merely gone to exile, like the Obi Wan and Yoda after Palpatine became Chancellor.
Or like when Michael was sent to Sicily in The Godfather.
We will be back.
Looking from the outside, it's fascinating.
Many of the Conservative MPs elected in 2010 and 2015 owe their place to Cameron and became candidates under his leadership and presumably supported him right up to the point when it became impractical to do so (about 3am on June 24th last year).
There will be those who couldn't win under Cameron but who could win under May and may feel more loyalty to her after the 8/6 landslide.
As history tells us, none of that matters and when May goes, whether voluntarily, via her own MPs or via the electorate, the new leader can airbrush history just as May has done to the Coalition years. The likes of Johnson and Javid will still be young enough to try for the leadership in 2022 or thereafter and I can't see May serving two full terms so yes, it's a question of biding your time and ensuring your chosen candidate develops the connections within the Parliamentary party.
Many of them realised, with horror on June 24th, that they'd spent years kissing the wrong arse.
Such fetishes have helped make the Tories the party of government on a majority of occasions these last 100 years.
What amazes me is how so many of the politicos on here are completely out of touch with public opinion and get distressed when an election produces a result they weren't expecting.
The other amazing thing is that nobody on here has ever had a losing bet.
I did, a few days ago on the election date. I was F ING mortified.
I can also guarantee you however that several posters here - Tissue Price, Richard Nabavi, Alastair Meeks, @Gettingbetter and others will have returns on investments in political betting that are MILES higher than any horse racing tipster. If there were as many political betting events as horse races we'd be up millions.
PB is almost like a hive mind of knowledge and its the details we pick up on.
Notably Andy's spreadsheet and the EU Referendum or Betfair getting constituency odds wrong.
With the greatest of respect to the bookies, there are only two or three oddsmakers who are really on the ball. The betfair guy isn't one of them.
Part of this game is knowing where (and when) to look - basically, predicting punters/bookies behaviour.
It feels a little bit sociopathic at times, if I'm honest...
Mr. Price, ha, sounds like a polite way of saying 'absolutely not'.
I was just wondering if Conservatives would see a vote for the yellows there as a way of getting rid of their turbulent Speaker.
I'm in the Buckingham disenfranchised constituency. Most people that I speak to are generally annoyed that they do not get a proper choice like the rest of the country, no matter their political inclinations. General view is that the speaker should somehow be separated out and to give all voters a proper choice.
At the last election there was a choice of Bercow, UKIP or Green. I'm Brexit-supporting, relatively socially liberal (excepting immigration where I have a problem with the v. large numbers), fiscally conservative but who doesn't like Bercow - it didn't leave me with much choice.
Where we live is very popular with commuters going into London (often who have moved from London) and there is quite a high density of champagne socialist Remain supporters. These will be highly likely to vote LibDem. However, I don't think that will be the case through the rest of the constituency (it is quite a large one in terms of area). John Bercow is quite well likely in the constituency as he does lots of local events etc. and therefore I expect him to come home easily. I would expect the LibDems to come in second.
My preference to vote for would be for a Brexit supporting Conservative. I don't have that option however!
So you are like millions of people in hundreds of constituencies ?
I must admit, I'm staggered that the LDs are 2-1 to win Vauxhall. This is a seat where:
- the LDs did poorly in last year's GLA elections - they have next to no presence on the council - the activists are likely to be next door working for Simon Hughes - the LDs were fourth in 2015 - the LDs were close to 50% behind Labour
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Labour 38% Con 29% LD 18%
Needless to say, the LDs don't set the odds and your summation isn't unrealistic. It was interesting to see Tim in Bermondsey yesterday morning for example supporting Simon Hughes.
I think you'll find the one group of people not talking up LD prospects is or are the LDs. We know how tough it will be in the way of the May tidal wave in Conservative held seats and there aren't that many Labour-held seats where we are a strong contender though with anecdotal evidence of the Labour vote in a state of collapse outside a few areas it may well be the Labour seats are the place to look for surprises and for money making opportunities.
I wouldn't advise a big bet on the Conservatives winning East Ham, however. I wouldn't even advise a small bet - I've not seen any prices, presumably it's 1-200 Labour.
Simon Hughes will not win Bermondsey and Hoey could be in trouble.
One interesting little snippet from the POTFR election by our old friends in the Auld Aliiance, is that despite all the terrorist attacks in Paris over the past few years, Len Pen polled under 5% of the vote in the French capital.
In the Paris departement itself but then Hillary won Manhattan and Brooklyn by a landslide too as Remain did in inner London. In the outer suburbs of Paris Le Pen got close to her national score as Leave did in suburban outer London and Trump did in Queens and Staten Island
Morning HYUFD.
I had to turn in about midnite. Have you conceded yet, or do you still think Le Pen can still nick it?
In terms of departements won Le Pen did narrowly win even if Macron won the popular vote. As I said before if France had an electoral college system and no runoff like the US Le Pen may well have won
I must admit, I'm staggered that the LDs are 2-1 to win Vauxhall. This is a seat where:
- the LDs did poorly in last year's GLA elections - they have next to no presence on the council - the activists are likely to be next door working for Simon Hughes - the LDs were fourth in 2015 - the LDs were close to 50% behind Labour
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Labour 38% Con 29% LD 18%
But a Tory b*tch is the current MP.
That Tory bitch who voted against the Iraq War and tuition fees and nominated John McDonnell for the Lab leadership in 2007.
I must admit, I'm staggered that the LDs are 2-1 to win Vauxhall. This is a seat where:
- the LDs did poorly in last year's GLA elections - they have next to no presence on the council - the activists are likely to be next door working for Simon Hughes - the LDs were fourth in 2015 - the LDs were close to 50% behind Labour
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Labour 38% Con 29% LD 18%
Needless to say, the LDs don't set the odds and your summation isn't unrealistic. It was interesting to see Tim in Bermondsey yesterday morning for example supporting Simon Hughes.
I think you'll find the one group of people not talking up LD prospects is or are the LDs. We know how tough it will be in the way of the May tidal wave in Conservative held seats and there aren't that many Labour-held seats where we are a strong contender though with anecdotal evidence of the Labour vote in a state of collapse outside a few areas it may well be the Labour seats are the place to look for surprises and for money making opportunities.
I wouldn't advise a big bet on the Conservatives winning East Ham, however. I wouldn't even advise a small bet - I've not seen any prices, presumably it's 1-200 Labour.
Simon Hughes will not win Bermondsey and Hoey could be in trouble.
You think ?
I thought Evens in Bermondsey was a very fair price actually. I think the Lib Dem vote is up amongst remainers and the down amongst Labour voters (Though its not going to the Tories like the Labour leave vote) ? Was Simon Hughes a Brexit supporter or some such ?
I'd be interested to know why so many of our regular posters are mournful that France looks set to pick a moderate centrist president who isn't fascist or batshit mental.
It's a shame that we aren't going to get the amusement of Le Pen vs Melanchon! Macron is the living embodiment of trendy metrosexual right-on chic. A gay Tony Blair with better suits. France has some real problems. He ain't gonna sort them. But, like Trudeau in Canada, the MSM will love him while his country continues to circle the pan. France basically needs a Maggie. Why is it is so seemingly impossible for them to elect a sensible centre-right non-loony non-shiney teeth candidate?
As I wonder through France's fifth largest city and see a vibrant cafe society with more museums art galleries statues and street art than you'd see anywhere in England outside London and an attractive healthy cultured population where the average waiter knows more about film and philosophy than 95% of the English
.......and compare it to Leeds where an obese population waddle around believing fine dining is an evening at Wetherspoons and culture is an hour with Jeremy Kyle I wonder where the French went wrong
Thanks, Roger, perhaps nip out to somewhere like Sevran and report back to us from France, as opposed to Richistan?
btw I shall be in the high Pyrenees for election night. I assume from the frequency of your (excellent) posts that pb.com is freely accessible in those parts, but do they block UK gambling sites?
I must admit, I'm staggered that the LDs are 2-1 to win Vauxhall. This is a seat where:
- the LDs did poorly in last year's GLA elections - they have next to no presence on the council - the activists are likely to be next door working for Simon Hughes - the LDs were fourth in 2015 - the LDs were close to 50% behind Labour
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Labour 38% Con 29% LD 18%
Needless to say, the LDs don't set the odds and your summation isn't unrealistic. It was interesting to see Tim in Bermondsey yesterday morning for example supporting Simon Hughes.
I think you'll find the one group of people not talking up LD prospects is or are the LDs. We know how tough it will be in the way of the May tidal wave in Conservative held seats and there aren't that many Labour-held seats where we are a strong contender though with anecdotal evidence of the Labour vote in a state of collapse outside a few areas it may well be the Labour seats are the place to look for surprises and for money making opportunities.
I wouldn't advise a big bet on the Conservatives winning East Ham, however. I wouldn't even advise a small bet - I've not seen any prices, presumably it's 1-200 Labour.
Simon Hughes will not win Bermondsey and Hoey could be in trouble.
You are showing your true colours.. you have turned v nasty of late
roger - UK economic policy has not helped our second tier cities with the huge one way brain drain to London. If that is where all the opportunities are those with get up and go won't hang around. And is it all about art/film/food? Perhaps we have other strengths that, whisper it, the French don't.
Actually based on the map above Le Pen won about 47 departements to Macron's 42 so if France had an electoral college system like the US and no runoff like the US she may well have won the electoral college as Trump did even if Macron, like Hillary, won the popular vote
Except that if france had the same system as the states voters wouldn't have voted for the minor candidates. Le Pen would have been hammered in the first and only round
You cannot know that for certain. The fact is if France had the US system there would still have been more than 2 candidates in the first round and it would have been departements or regions won that was key
So ten months after the Leave vote do the City redundancies match the predictions:
' Consultants working for leading strategy firms in London say banks have activated their contingency plans and that the London job cuts are about to come thick and fast.
“You’re looking at anything from 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” predicts one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.” '
I'd be interested to know why so many of our regular posters are mournful that France looks set to pick a moderate centrist president who isn't fascist or batshit mental.
It's a shame that we aren't going to get the amusement of Le Pen vs Melanchon! Macron is the living embodiment of trendy metrosexual right-on chic. A gay Tony Blair with better suits. France has some real problems. He ain't gonna sort them. But, like Trudeau in Canada, the MSM will love him while his country continues to circle the pan. France basically needs a Maggie. Why is it is so seemingly impossible for them to elect a sensible centre-right non-loony non-shiney teeth candidate?
As I wonder through France's fifth largest city and see a vibrant cafe society with more museums art galleries statues and street art than you'd see anywhere in England outside London and an attractive healthy cultured population where the average waiter knows more about film and philosophy than 95% of the English
.......and compare it to Leeds where an obese population waddle around believing fine dining is an evening at Wetherspoons and culture is an hour with Jeremy Kyle I wonder where the French went wrong
Hey, Ok I'll bite. What the hell.
I have only ever been to Leeds a handful of times, indeed I have been to France far more often than Yorkshire (given I lived in France for a while that's pretty clear). However, café culture is a darned easier in Nice (I assume) with its warm sunny climate than sat behind a wind break hugging your Americano in the West Riding.
Quality of life is not to be judged by how many art galleries people go to (I go about once a month by the way, when I lift my knuckles momentarily off the gravel), and certainly not by how many films you've seen. ("Film" I guess being the sort of black and white densely plotted thing with sub titles rather than something involving Schwarzenegger and lasers).
However, despite the shocking lack of philosophy in Yorkshire (does one summarise La Nausee as "ee ah'm not feelin' at all reet about them objects crowding mee 'ead space?") at least 40% or so of the antediluvian waddlers in Leeds don't vote for the extreme right or left.
I expect most of them just want a happy, healthy life, with a bit of fun and love and security. If that means no use for street art, well so be it.
I must admit, I'm staggered that the LDs are 2-1 to win Vauxhall. This is a seat where:
- the LDs did poorly in last year's GLA elections - they have next to no presence on the council - the activists are likely to be next door working for Simon Hughes - the LDs were fourth in 2015 - the LDs were close to 50% behind Labour
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Labour 38% Con 29% LD 18%
But a Tory b*tch is the current MP.
The left's famous misogyny proudly out in the open for all to see once more.
So how's this cohabitation thingy going to work for Macron, assuming he wins?
Is President Macron going to be as impotent as a eunuch?
Yes, so would Le Pen. The chances of serious reform coming from either is close to zero. It's probably why the leftist dirty tricks campaign focussed on Fillon, he was the only candidate who had any chance of actually making any changes to France.
Sometimes I think it's easier for those on the Left do make necessary changes than those on the Right. It was Gerhard Schroeder who liberalised the German labour market, and it was Tony Blair who introduced tuition fees in the UK.
He will need a backbone of steel to stand up to the vested interests in France: the unions, the professional bodies, the truckers, the farmers, etc. He also doesn't have any answer to the problems of France's large, non-integrated, Muslim minority. (Mind you, nor did any of the other candidates.)
Macron does at least realise that the biggest reason why France's economy has stagnated is because social charges on employees are too high, and the labour market is among the least flexible in the world. Hopefully, he can copy the playbook of Schroeder, Thatcher and Rajoy, and make the necessary changes. It will be good for France and good for the world if he does.
But it will be hard: very, very hard. (As it would have been for Fillon too.)
AFAIK they've never had a Margaret Thatcher and they have PR which makes elected dictatorship impossible, i.e. the Thatcher majority 1983-90 was up to 143 and we're headed back to that state after June 2017.
But it's probably too 'northern European', with only a small land connection to 'the continent' . Maybe it reminds them of the UK ...
Actually based on the map above Le Pen won about 47 departements to Macron's 42 so if France had an electoral college system like the US and no runoff like the US she may well have won the electoral college as Trump did even if Macron, like Hillary, won the popular vote
Last night you were desperately trying to prove that in actual vote terms Le Pen was winning. It turned out the exit polls were spot on.
Now you are trying the stupid US electoral college tactics. France is a more enlightened country.
If Le Pen had won ALL the departments, she would still lose. France has the added insurance policy of the second vote. The chances of Le Pen or FN winning any department with 50% of the votes is very slim. That is why they have only 2 MLAs. This time they might get 10 maybe.
You are going on the runoff, the US has no runoff.The fact is France had the same trend as the US election and the EU referendum, Leave, Trump and Le Pen led in terms of council areas, states or departements but Hillary and Macron won the popular vote and Remain came close in the popular vote by winning by a large margin in the biggest cities
I have come to the conclusion that it's not Corbyn's fault that Labour are doing so badly in the polls here, it's Labour in general. We have had two elections in EU member nations where the Socialists (i.e members of the same European grouping that Labour sit in) have crashed and burned. In the Netherlands the Labour grouping collapsed from 25% in 2012 to just 6% and now in France, they have collapsed from 29% to just 6% (an average drop in those two countries of -21%). I don't think that it will be that bad here in the UK for Labour, but the trend does appear to be continuing here in the UK. Socialists in Europe are being hammered.
There is something in what you say but Corbyn is going to make things much worse. He's a disgraceful candidate to put up as Prime Minister.
The Socialists' problem is that their White working class supporters are moving right, and their metropolitan supporters are moving left.
Yes.
I do wonder how much social values are secondary influences of economic interests, actually, for the non political obsessives.
Professional middle classes see their economic interests best served by globalisation and internationalism, whilst working class voters see them as best served by the nation state.
If that ceased to be the case (either which way) how long would it be before the social values changed too?
Canvassing amongst the £m-plus houses over the weekend I can tell you that the left, Corbyn-supporting, metropolitan, champagne socialist is far from a dying breed.
Did you knock on my door ? I am not voting for Corbyn.
I must admit, I'm staggered that the LDs are 2-1 to win Vauxhall. This is a seat where:
- the LDs did poorly in last year's GLA elections - they have next to no presence on the council - the activists are likely to be next door working for Simon Hughes - the LDs were fourth in 2015 - the LDs were close to 50% behind Labour
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Labour 38% Con 29% LD 18%
But a Tory b*tch is the current MP.
I didn't come across any misogynist twats, so no I can't have done.
What amazes me is how so many of the politicos on here are completely out of touch with public opinion and get distressed when an election produces a result they weren't expecting.
The other amazing thing is that nobody on here has ever had a losing bet.
I did, a few days ago on the election date. I was F ING mortified.
I can also guarantee you however that several posters here - Tissue Price, Richard Nabavi, Alastair Meeks, @Gettingbetter and others will have returns on investments in political betting that are MILES higher than any horse racing tipster. If there were as many political betting events as horse races we'd be up millions.
PB is almost like a hive mind of knowledge and its the details we pick up on.
Notably Andy's spreadsheet and the EU Referendum or Betfair getting constituency odds wrong.
This is what it is like to be efficient operators in an inefficient market; there is information out there which is freely accessible, but not priced in. Long may it last.
Just out of interest, I very rarely bet and have had 4 out of 4 winners this year and last: Brexit, Stoke, Netherlands and Macron last night - the last 3 being on the advice of @AlastairMeeks.
Actually based on the map above Le Pen won about 47 departements to Macron's 42 so if France had an electoral college system like the US and no runoff like the US she may well have won the electoral college as Trump did even if Macron, like Hillary, won the popular vote
Except that if france had the same system as the states voters wouldn't have voted for the minor candidates. Le Pen would have been hammered in the first and only round
You cannot know that for certain. The fact is if France had the US system there would still have been more than 2 candidates in the first round and it would have been departements or regions won that was key
Actually based on the map above Le Pen won about 47 departements to Macron's 42 so if France had an electoral college system like the US and no runoff like the US she may well have won the electoral college as Trump did even if Macron, like Hillary, won the popular vote
Except that if france had the same system as the states voters wouldn't have voted for the minor candidates. Le Pen would have been hammered in the first and only round
You cannot know that for certain. The fact is if France had the US system there would still have been more than 2 candidates in the first round and it would have been departements or regions won that was key
Have you factored in population size into you calculation fantasy?
What amazes me is how so many of the politicos on here are completely out of touch with public opinion and get distressed when an election produces a result they weren't expecting.
The other amazing thing is that nobody on here has ever had a losing bet.
I did, a few days ago on the election date. I was F ING mortified.
I can also guarantee you however that several posters here - Tissue Price, Richard Nabavi, Alastair Meeks, @Gettingbetter and others will have returns on investments in political betting that are MILES higher than any horse racing tipster. If there were as many political betting events as horse races we'd be up millions.
PB is almost like a hive mind of knowledge and its the details we pick up on.
Notably Andy's spreadsheet and the EU Referendum or Betfair getting constituency odds wrong.
This is what it is like to be efficient operators in an inefficient market; there is information out there which is freely accessible, but not priced in. Long may it last.
Just out of interest, I very rarely bet and have had 4 out of 4 winners this year and last: Brexit, Stoke, Netherlands and Macron last night - the last 3 being on the advice of @AlastairMeeks.
@Patrick, why are you so obsessed with Macron's sexuality?
Metrosexual is, despite the name, more an issue of style than sexuality isn't it?
But Patrick used the word "gay".
My issue is with the dishonesty not the sexuality. I frankly couldn't give a shit if he blows goats. But I do think it is dishonest to present himself as something he isn't. Surely the French are liberal enough not to care too?
I must admit, I'm staggered that the LDs are 2-1 to win Vauxhall. This is a seat where:
- the LDs did poorly in last year's GLA elections - they have next to no presence on the council - the activists are likely to be next door working for Simon Hughes - the LDs were fourth in 2015 - the LDs were close to 50% behind Labour
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Labour 38% Con 29% LD 18%
But a Tory b*tch is the current MP.
The left's famous misogyny proudly out in the open for all to see once more.
For those who wonder why Labour has never had a female leader....
I must admit, I'm staggered that the LDs are 2-1 to win Vauxhall. This is a seat where:
- the LDs did poorly in last year's GLA elections - they have next to no presence on the council - the activists are likely to be next door working for Simon Hughes - the LDs were fourth in 2015 - the LDs were close to 50% behind Labour
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Labour 38% Con 29% LD 18%
But a Tory b*tch is the current MP.
That Tory bitch who voted against the Iraq War and tuition fees and nominated John McDonnell for the Lab leadership in 2007.
Kate Hooey's voting record is rather 1980s Labour:
Actually based on the map above Le Pen won about 47 departements to Macron's 42 so if France had an electoral college system like the US and no runoff like the US she may well have won the electoral college as Trump did even if Macron, like Hillary, won the popular vote
Except that if france had the same system as the states voters wouldn't have voted for the minor candidates. Le Pen would have been hammered in the first and only round
You cannot know that for certain. The fact is if France had the US system there would still have been more than 2 candidates in the first round and it would have been departements or regions won that was key
Have you factored in population size into you calculation fantasy?
That depends how they would calculate the electoral college but Le Pen won more departements as Trump won more states it was the popular vote which had Macron and Hillary ahead
To answer @freetochoose's implied question, most recently I lost money on the Article 50 Supreme Court decision and on the Copeland by-election.
I lost on that decision too and also did a lot of money backing Juppe before the primary, though happily I was on Macron too thanks to following @rcs1000 and @Chris_from_Paris, inter alia.
Actually based on the map above Le Pen won about 47 departements to Macron's 42 so if France had an electoral college system like the US and no runoff like the US she may well have won the electoral college as Trump did even if Macron, like Hillary, won the popular vote
Except that if france had the same system as the states voters wouldn't have voted for the minor candidates. Le Pen would have been hammered in the first and only round
You cannot know that for certain. The fact is if France had the US system there would still have been more than 2 candidates in the first round and it would have been departements or regions won that was key
France has made the enlightened decision to have a system in which the person who get the most votes becomes President. It is not a federal state, so that makes complete sense.
To answer @freetochoose's implied question, most recently I lost money on the Article 50 Supreme Court decision and on the Copeland by-election.
In fairness you wrote thread header recently outlining how you arrived at a probable outcome converted into % and therefore odds which was very interesting. Can't remember what it was or if it won but you'd clearly studied in closely.
I stick by my assertion that most punters bet on what they want to happen in football and politics.
Actually based on the map above Le Pen won about 47 departements to Macron's 42 so if France had an electoral college system like the US and no runoff like the US she may well have won the electoral college as Trump did even if Macron, like Hillary, won the popular vote
Last night you were desperately trying to prove that in actual vote terms Le Pen was winning. It turned out the exit polls were spot on.
Now you are trying the stupid US electoral college tactics. France is a more enlightened country.
If Le Pen had won ALL the departments, she would still lose. France has the added insurance policy of the second vote. The chances of Le Pen or FN winning any department with 50% of the votes is very slim. That is why they have only 2 MLAs. This time they might get 10 maybe.
You are going on the runoff, the US has no runoff.The fact is France had the same trend as the US election and the EU referendum, Leave, Trump and Le Pen led in terms of council areas, states or departements but Hillary and Macron won the popular vote and Remain came close in the popular vote by winning by a large margin in the biggest cities
Wake up ! Smell the coffee. Macron has won decisively and the Sensible people will give your fascist candidate a hammering in two weeks time.
I must admit, I'm staggered that the LDs are 2-1 to win Vauxhall. This is a seat where:
- the LDs did poorly in last year's GLA elections - they have next to no presence on the council - the activists are likely to be next door working for Simon Hughes - the LDs were fourth in 2015 - the LDs were close to 50% behind Labour
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Labour 38% Con 29% LD 18%
But a Tory b*tch is the current MP.
That Tory bitch who voted against the Iraq War and tuition fees and nominated John McDonnell for the Lab leadership in 2007.
Kate Hooey's voting record is rather 1980s Labour:
If UKIP focused on putting Kate Hoeys in front of the electorate rather than Nigel Farages, it could well be on course to displace Labour across South Wales and the North in this election, and would probably be looking at some gains from the Tories too - especially in the Midlands. She is exactly where UKIP should have positioned itself if it wanted a long-term, relevant future.
Comments
I had to turn in about midnite. Have you conceded yet, or do you still think Le Pen can still nick it?
He will need a backbone of steel to stand up to the vested interests in France: the unions, the professional bodies, the truckers, the farmers, etc. He also doesn't have any answer to the problems of France's large, non-integrated, Muslim minority. (Mind you, nor did any of the other candidates.)
Macron does at least realise that the biggest reason why France's economy has stagnated is because social charges on employees are too high, and the labour market is among the least flexible in the world. Hopefully, he can copy the playbook of Schroeder, Thatcher and Rajoy, and make the necessary changes. It will be good for France and good for the world if he does.
But it will be hard: very, very hard. (As it would have been for Fillon too.)
Perhaps you should visit the nearest banlieue for your answer or failing that head 200km west to Marseille.
Many of the Conservative MPs elected in 2010 and 2015 owe their place to Cameron and became candidates under his leadership and presumably supported him right up to the point when it became impractical to do so (about 3am on June 24th last year).
There will be those who couldn't win under Cameron but who could win under May and may feel more loyalty to her after the 8/6 landslide.
As history tells us, none of that matters and when May goes, whether voluntarily, via her own MPs or via the electorate, the new leader can airbrush history just as May has done to the Coalition years. The likes of Johnson and Javid will still be young enough to try for the leadership in 2022 or thereafter and I can't see May serving two full terms so yes, it's a question of biding your time and ensuring your chosen candidate develops the connections within the Parliamentary party.
Now you are trying the stupid US electoral college tactics. France is a more enlightened country.
If Le Pen had won ALL the departments, she would still lose. France has the added insurance policy of the second vote. The chances of Le Pen or FN winning any department with 50% of the votes is very slim. That is why they have only 2 MLAs. This time they might get 10 maybe.
https://twitter.com/johncurticeontv
Read the bets on here, the vast are placed where the bettor is putting his money on an outcome he WANTS to happen, and then convinces himself he has value.
Liverpool, with their huge support, are the perfect example of being consistently overbet and consequently bad value.
I'd add that it isn't the choice of Birmingham, Manchester or Leeds to have England's museums and art galleries focused heavily on London.
But if you do visit Leeds, you may well enjoy The Royal Armouries, which is a splendid attraction.
I must admit, I'm staggered that the LDs are 2-1 to win Vauxhall. This is a seat where:
- the LDs did poorly in last year's GLA elections
- they have next to no presence on the council
- the activists are likely to be next door working for Simon Hughes
- the LDs were fourth in 2015
- the LDs were close to 50% behind Labour
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Labour 38%
Con 29%
LD 18%
Harmonisation requires the 28 to sign up to it.
Common tax and social welfare policies. A European minimum wage. A common asylum, immigration policy.
They can't even agree on quotas to take a few hundred asylum seekers.
And I also think you are being sneeringly and ignorantly condescending of UK urban life. They're not all fat chavs north of Watford. I've visited alot of UK towns and cities in my new role since coming back from the Hague. I've been really impressed with how very pleasant many British places are - places that I had a really crappy mental image of before I actually went there. I'd include in that York, Birmingham, Nottingham, Newcastle, Leeds, and Manchester. Your comments about Leeds say way more about you than about Leeds.
Notably Andy's spreadsheet and the EU Referendum or Betfair getting constituency odds wrong.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/856410867130413056
https://twitter.com/SChrles/status/856416158316154880
I think you'll find the one group of people not talking up LD prospects is or are the LDs. We know how tough it will be in the way of the May tidal wave in Conservative held seats and there aren't that many Labour-held seats where we are a strong contender though with anecdotal evidence of the Labour vote in a state of collapse outside a few areas it may well be the Labour seats are the place to look for surprises and for money making opportunities.
I wouldn't advise a big bet on the Conservatives winning East Ham, however. I wouldn't even advise a small bet - I've not seen any prices, presumably it's 1-200 Labour.
At the last election there was a choice of Bercow, UKIP or Green. I'm Brexit-supporting, relatively socially liberal (excepting immigration where I have a problem with the v. large numbers), fiscally conservative but who doesn't like Bercow - it didn't leave me with much choice.
Where we live is very popular with commuters going into London (often who have moved from London) and there is quite a high density of champagne socialist Remain supporters. These will be highly likely to vote LibDem. However, I don't think that will be the case through the rest of the constituency (it is quite a large one in terms of area). John Bercow is quite well likely in the constituency as he does lots of local events etc. and therefore I expect him to come home easily. I would expect the LibDems to come in second.
My preference to vote for would be for a Brexit supporting Conservative. I don't have that option however!
https://twitter.com/SimonNeville/status/856161870637662209
As an aside, I was contemplating Verstappen to win Russia (around 21-26) and have decided against it. Very good driver, his car isn't fast enough. It is credible but requires both Vettel and Hamilton to have problems, and for neither Raikkonen nor Bottas to be able to grab the victory.
Not impossible. But not likely either.
Edited extra bit: besides, I reckon his odds will slide even more, so even if I were interested I'd probably wait until after qualifying. I think Ricciardo's been doing a better job there, so Verstappen would probably start 6th or so.
http://www.brixtonbuzz.com/2017/04/kate-hoey-faces-tough-challenge-from-libdems-in-vauxhall-as-ge2017-gets-underway/
Part of this game is knowing where (and when) to look - basically, predicting punters/bookies behaviour.
It feels a little bit sociopathic at times, if I'm honest...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vauxhall_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
I think she's safe...
Is this seat on Betfair? Haven't checked.
I thought Evens in Bermondsey was a very fair price actually.
I think the Lib Dem vote is up amongst remainers and the down amongst Labour voters (Though its not going to the Tories like the Labour leave vote) ?
Was Simon Hughes a Brexit supporter or some such ?
btw I shall be in the high Pyrenees for election night. I assume from the frequency of your (excellent) posts that pb.com is freely accessible in those parts, but do they block UK gambling sites?
' Consultants working for leading strategy firms in London say banks have activated their contingency plans and that the London job cuts are about to come thick and fast.
“You’re looking at anything from 50,000 to 70,000 London finance jobs being moved overseas in the next 12 months,” predicts one consultant working with one of the top finance strategy firms in the City. “Jobs are going to be cut, and those cuts are going to start next week.” '
http://news.efinancialcareers.com/uk-en/248265/london-banking-redundancies-brexit/
Hey, Ok I'll bite. What the hell.
I have only ever been to Leeds a handful of times, indeed I have been to France far more often than Yorkshire (given I lived in France for a while that's pretty clear). However, café culture is a darned easier in Nice (I assume) with its warm sunny climate than sat behind a wind break hugging your Americano in the West Riding.
Quality of life is not to be judged by how many art galleries people go to (I go about once a month by the way, when I lift my knuckles momentarily off the gravel), and certainly not by how many films you've seen. ("Film" I guess being the sort of black and white densely plotted thing with sub titles rather than something involving Schwarzenegger and lasers).
However, despite the shocking lack of philosophy in Yorkshire (does one summarise La Nausee as "ee ah'm not feelin' at all reet about them objects crowding mee 'ead space?") at least 40% or so of the antediluvian waddlers in Leeds don't vote for the extreme right or left.
I expect most of them just want a happy, healthy life, with a bit of fun and love and security. If that means no use for street art, well so be it.
AFAIK they've never had a Margaret Thatcher and they have PR which makes elected dictatorship impossible, i.e. the Thatcher majority 1983-90 was up to 143 and we're headed back to that state after June 2017.
But it's probably too 'northern European', with only a small land connection to 'the continent' . Maybe it reminds them of the UK ...
Just out of interest, I very rarely bet and have had 4 out of 4 winners this year and last: Brexit, Stoke, Netherlands and Macron last night - the last 3 being on the advice of @AlastairMeeks.
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/10282/kate_hoey/vauxhall/votes
Tories most seats, Corbyn not to be PM and Le Pen to lose the second round are all 1.01 shots I think.
I stick by my assertion that most punters bet on what they want to happen in football and politics.
Andrew Gwynne of labour just said on radio 5 on bank holidays something like why not celebrate St Georges day in a Glasgow pub.