Actually based on the map above Le Pen won about 47 departements to Macron's 42 so if France had an electoral college system like the US and no runoff like the US she may well have won the electoral college as Trump did even if Macron, like Hillary, won the popular vote
Except that if france had the same system as the states voters wouldn't have voted for the minor candidates. Le Pen would have been hammered in the first and only round
You cannot know that for certain. The fact is if France had the US system there would still have been more than 2 candidates in the first round and it would have been departements or regions won that was key
France has made the enlightened decision to have a system in which the person who get the most votes becomes President. It is not a federal state, so that makes complete sense.
That's not entirely true though, is it? Mitterand won the first round in 1974 but want on to lose the election. He then reversed the trick in 1981, where he won after finishing second. Chirac did likewise in 1995.
The French use a system only slightly less stupid than our own SV, which is neither FPTP nor fully preferential.
Actually based on the map above Le Pen won about 47 departements to Macron's 42 so if France had an electoral college system like the US and no runoff like the US she may well have won the electoral college as Trump did even if Macron, like Hillary, won the popular vote
Except that if france had the same system as the states voters wouldn't have voted for the minor candidates. Le Pen would have been hammered in the first and only round
You cannot know that for certain. The fact is if France had the US system there would still have been more than 2 candidates in the first round and it would have been departements or regions won that was key
Have you factored in population size into you calculation fantasy?
That depends how they would calculate the electoral college but Le Pen won more departements as Trump won more states it was the popular vote which had Macron and Hillary ahead
So, presumably she'll win more Departments in two weeks time?
Or will she, in fact, win absolutely no Departments whatsoever in two weeks time?
Are there any that she might have a realistic chance of winning in? Presumably, the far north-east and the far south-east offer her the best opportunities.
One interesting little snippet from the POTFR election by our old friends in the Auld Aliiance, is that despite all the terrorist attacks in Paris over the past few years, Len Pen polled under 5% of the vote in the French capital.
In the Paris departement itself but then Hillary won Manhattan and Brooklyn by a landslide too as Remain did in inner London. In the outer suburbs of Paris Le Pen got close to her national score as Leave did in suburban outer London and Trump did in Queens and Staten Island
Morning HYUFD.
I had to turn in about midnite. Have you conceded yet, or do you still think Le Pen can still nick it?
In terms of departements won Le Pen did narrowly win even if Macron won the popular vote. As I said before if France had an electoral college system and no runoff like the US Le Pen may well have won
But unlike the US France doesn't have a rigged system that allows the person with most votes to lose.
Even if France had the same system as the US and departments had electoral college votes apportioned to population she would still not have won because her strength was, by and large, in less populated rural Department.
Come on now. There must be a electoral system somewhere in the world we can apply retrospectively to ensure a Le Pen victory? At the very least we can design our own, whereby votes in rural departments count double.
In all fairness, not many of us expected the Prime Minister to call a snap GE seeing as she had herself refused to contemplate it on any number of occasions.
Daisy's sole mistake was to take what the Prime Minister said as being a statement of truth and fact on which the country could rely whereas we now know it wasn't and it can't and we can all draw our conclusions from that.
It's come at just the wrong time for Daisy and she has decided she can't be a Parliamentary candidate - it's nice to see the sympathy and I'm sure if she were a Conservative candidate, we'd all be feeling the love.
It's good news for Marcus Fysh this time.
Come on stodge, it doesn't make any sense at all. She's moving into the constituency so she can't stand there?
AFAIK she already lives in the constituency ( Misterton ) and the house move is from there to elsewhere in the constituency .
Actually based on the map above Le Pen won about 47 departements to Macron's 42 so if France had an electoral college system like the US and no runoff like the US she may well have won the electoral college as Trump did even if Macron, like Hillary, won the popular vote
Except that if france had the same system as the states voters wouldn't have voted for the minor candidates. Le Pen would have been hammered in the first and only round
You cannot know that for certain. The fact is if France had the US system there would still have been more than 2 candidates in the first round and it would have been departements or regions won that was key
France has made the enlightened decision to have a system in which the person who get the most votes becomes President. It is not a federal state, so that makes complete sense.
That's not entirely true though, is it? Mitterand won the first round in 1974 but want on to lose the election. He then reversed the trick in 1981, where he won after finishing second. Chirac did likewise in 1995.
The French use a system only slightly less stupid than our own SV, which is neither FPTP nor fully preferential.
The second round is the round that counts. The first round is the qualifier.
I must admit, I'm staggered that the LDs are 2-1 to win Vauxhall. This is a seat where:
- the LDs did poorly in last year's GLA elections - they have next to no presence on the council - the activists are likely to be next door working for Simon Hughes - the LDs were fourth in 2015 - the LDs were close to 50% behind Labour
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Labour 38% Con 29% LD 18%
But a Tory b*tch is the current MP.
And this is why misogyny is so rife in the Labour Party.
And Labour wonder why they've never had a female PM while the Tories are on their second.....
Jim Messina, the American Democratic political consultant who spent two years as President Obama’s deputy chief of staff, has been hired by the Conservatives to work on their election campaign, Bloomberg’s Tim Ross reports. Messina also worked for the Tories on their 2015 campaign. Ross says:
[Messina’s] appointment brings together the key figures in the team behind Cameron’s success in 2015. May has also hired Lynton Crosby, the political strategist, Mark Textor, the pollster and Crosby’s business partner, and the digital media specialists Craig Elder and Tom Edmonds, all of whom worked for the Cameron campaign.
Actually based on the map above Le Pen won about 47 departements to Macron's 42 so if France had an electoral college system like the US and no runoff like the US she may well have won the electoral college as Trump did even if Macron, like Hillary, won the popular vote
Except that if france had the same system as the states voters wouldn't have voted for the minor candidates. Le Pen would have been hammered in the first and only round
You cannot know that for certain. The fact is if France had the US system there would still have been more than 2 candidates in the first round and it would have been departements or regions won that was key
Have you factored in population size into you calculation fantasy?
That depends how they would calculate the electoral college but Le Pen won more departements as Trump won more states it was the popular vote which had Macron and Hillary ahead
So, presumably she'll win more Departments in two weeks time?
Or will she, in fact, win absolutely no Departments whatsoever in two weeks time?
The normally sane HYUFD's obsession with finding a way that Le Pen 'won' when she lost decisively is one of the more bizarre episodes on PB this past few weeks.
Maybe we should have new thread, perhaps on how the French First Round would have looked under an electoral college, run under AV?
Oo er, how would that work? Redistribute votes until you have a top two in each department, assign ECVs from that department to the winner, then the top two on ECVs to a final round?
Sounds like there's more to her standing down than just a house move, especially given that her reason for moving house was to live in the constituency.
No, imagine if her completion date is the date of the GE. It'll interfere with her campaigning and all sorts - imagine if she is canvassing and the estate agent or her solicitor calls. The white heat of a GE campaign + moving house sounds v v stressful to me. Allan Andrews won't be standing for the Tories in Coventry South as he is a new Dad too.
Sure it's stressful, but if she has a good solicitor the actual process of purchasing shouldn't be too difficult. She'll probably also have a team around her for the campaign who can get papers to sign etc to her if urgently required.
A new baby I can understand more as an excuse for standing aside, genuine family reason.
Your response seems to completely ignore that she said she was ready to take on the snap election last week.
Ok, she spoke too soon, and has had to reassess, fine. But to patronisingly act as though the only mistake was to believe the PM, when she said she could fight it after it was apparent the PM had lied/changed her mind, is unfair.
So no, her sole mistake was not to believe the PM. It was to believe that, and also confirm she was ready for a snap election anyway, when in fact she was not. Not exactly a big deal that she is, in fact, not ready, nor even that she spoke too soon, but neither is it irrelevant when deciding to sneer at those poking fun at it.
I see kicking the wasp's nest has only angered the wasps. I ought to know that by now
I don't know the full story - your comment is absurd only inasmuch as everyone said they wanted an election and were ready for it even if the truth was everyone (including CCHQ it seems) was caught out.
You have to say you're ready and eager for the fight - it's a platitude. Most activists won't be happy with the Prime Minister - those who are fighting hard in County Council Wards will have to keep going for another month instead of that post-election break, rest, clearing out the garage that they had planned to do.
Imagine if Corbyn or Farron had said "we're not ready" - the response on here would be fairly predictable. I think there was a line which could have been "the Prime Minister should, instead of the unnecessary diversion and delay of a General Election, be getting on with the job. There is much for her to do as she keeps reminding us. Her time would be better spent doing that job".
I think that line might have got some traction but both Corbyn and Farron are campaigners and want to be out there campaigning. I think the Conservatives will in time come to regard this GE as a terrible mistake but obviously not in the short term.
As for Daisy, she has made her decision just as the Conservative prospective candidate in Coventry South has too and I respect him for that.
All those who support the European project and reject the ugly and divisive right wing politics of Trump and Farage should be delighted with this result. Following Geert Wilders obliteration in Holland this period will hopefully be seen as nothing more than an uncomfortable blip in the history of Western democracy.
The fact that during this blip we made the catastrophic decision to cast ourselves out from the most attractive and politically advanced institution in the world is a catastrophy but one that can hopefully be reversed soetime in the future
You forget "hideously undemocratic" in your hagiography of the EU, Roger....
If that's what floats your boat then maybe. I've never given it a seconds thought. My once every five year brush with democracy is seldom a happy affair.
By contrast the joy of the EU is something I'm aware of most days. 28 countries all with distinct cultures history and in most cases language where we can work trade and live in as easily as we can Wales or Scotland.
.....And all pooling the same civilised values whille bringing our own unique charateristics to this great party.
The greatest cultural and creative exchange the world has ever seen or is ever likely to see. a great shared experience. The Italians love of life the French love of culture the civilising influence of the Dutch the Spain of Almodovar the organisation of the Germans the creativity of the British the intelligence of the Portuguese all there and freely available for our delectation
We've just made the bigget mistake in a millenium and for what. Democracy?
In my browsers, the WWW2 site shows newest posts first. The Vanilla site shows oldest first. is that deliberate, to allow the choice? Or is there a way to change what's shown first on either site?
Jim Messina, the American Democratic political consultant who spent two years as President Obama’s deputy chief of staff, has been hired by the Conservatives to work on their election campaign, Bloomberg’s Tim Ross reports. Messina also worked for the Tories on their 2015 campaign. Ross says:
[Messina’s] appointment brings together the key figures in the team behind Cameron’s success in 2015. May has also hired Lynton Crosby, the political strategist, Mark Textor, the pollster and Crosby’s business partner, and the digital media specialists Craig Elder and Tom Edmonds, all of whom worked for the Cameron campaign.
So she's hired all the people who successfully sold an inferior product. Smart move.
Jim Messina, the American Democratic political consultant who spent two years as President Obama’s deputy chief of staff, has been hired by the Conservatives to work on their election campaign, Bloomberg’s Tim Ross reports. Messina also worked for the Tories on their 2015 campaign. Ross says:
[Messina’s] appointment brings together the key figures in the team behind Cameron’s success in 2015. May has also hired Lynton Crosby, the political strategist, Mark Textor, the pollster and Crosby’s business partner, and the digital media specialists Craig Elder and Tom Edmonds, all of whom worked for the Cameron campaign.
You mean Osborne wasn't a 'key' figure in the 2015 campaign? The air-brushing continues apace.
One interesting little snippet from the POTFR election by our old friends in the Auld Aliiance, is that despite all the terrorist attacks in Paris over the past few years, Len Pen polled under 5% of the vote in the French capital.
In the Paris departement itself but then Hillary won Manhattan and Brooklyn by a landslide too as Remain did in inner London. In the outer suburbs of Paris Le Pen got close to her national score as Leave did in suburban outer London and Trump did in Queens and Staten Island
Morning HYUFD.
I had to turn in about midnite. Have you conceded yet, or do you still think Le Pen can still nick it?
In terms of departements won Le Pen did narrowly win even if Macron won the popular vote. As I said before if France had an electoral college system and no runoff like the US Le Pen may well have won
But unlike the US France doesn't have a rigged system that allows the person with most votes to lose.
Even if France had the same system as the US and departments had electoral college votes apportioned to population she would still not have won because her strength was, by and large, in less populated rural Department.
Come on now. There must be a electoral system somewhere in the world we can apply retrospectively to ensure a Le Pen victory? At the very least we can design our own, whereby votes in rural departments count double.
I just feel sorry for those in the parallel world where she won outright in round 1;)
Haha to Mortimer and his ilk....the populist right has been well and truly stopped in it's tracks, and the EU is going to strengthen.
On Corbyn...the gift that just keeps on giving. The bellend cannot stop talking about his pet interests.
On Roger.....note to pbERs, do not take him at face value. He is an articulate lefty polemicist who posts with a confident verve dosed with a naughty degree of mischief.
Jim Messina, the American Democratic political consultant who spent two years as President Obama’s deputy chief of staff, has been hired by the Conservatives to work on their election campaign, Bloomberg’s Tim Ross reports. Messina also worked for the Tories on their 2015 campaign. Ross says:
[Messina’s] appointment brings together the key figures in the team behind Cameron’s success in 2015. May has also hired Lynton Crosby, the political strategist, Mark Textor, the pollster and Crosby’s business partner, and the digital media specialists Craig Elder and Tom Edmonds, all of whom worked for the Cameron campaign.
You mean Osborne wasn't a 'key' figure in the 2015 campaign? The air-brushing continues apace.
His magnificent stewardship was the product (alongside Dave's leadership)
In my browsers, the WWW2 site shows newest posts first. The Vanilla site shows oldest first. is that deliberate, to allow the choice? Or is there a way to change what's shown first on either site?
Sounds like there's more to her standing down than just a house move, especially given that her reason for moving house was to live in the constituency.
No, imagine if her completion date is the date of the GE. It'll interfere with her campaigning and all sorts - imagine if she is canvassing and the estate agent or her solicitor calls. The white heat of a GE campaign + moving house sounds v v stressful to me. Allan Andrews won't be standing for the Tories in Coventry South as he is a new Dad too.
Sure it's stressful, but if she has a good solicitor the actual process of purchasing shouldn't be too difficult. She'll probably also have a team around her for the campaign who can get papers to sign etc to her if urgently required.
A new baby I can understand more as an excuse for standing aside, genuine family reason.
Your she was ready to take on the snap election lastPM, when she sauld fight it after it was apparent PM. It was to believe that, and also confirm she was ready for a snap election anyway, when in fact she was not. Not exactly a big deal that she is, in fact, not ready, nor even that she spoke too soon, but neither is it irrelevant when deciding to sneer at those poking fun at it.
I see kicking the wasp's nest has only angered the wasps. I ought to know that by now
I don't know the full story - your comment is absurd only inasmuch as everyone said they wanted an election and were ready for it even if the truth was everyone (including CCHQ it seems) was caught out.
You have to say you're ready and eager for the fight - it's a platitude. Most activists won't be happy with the Prime Minister - those who are fighting hard in County Council Wards will have to keep going for another month instead of that post-election break, rest, clearing out the garage that they had planned to do.
Imagine if Corbyn or Farron had said "we're not ready" - the response on here would be fairly predictable. I think there was a line which could have been "the Prime Minister should, instead of the unnecessary diversion and delay of a General Election, be getting on with the job. There is much for her to do as she keeps reminding us. Her time would be better spent doing that job".
I think that line might have got some traction but both Corbyn and Farron are campaigners and want to be out there campaigning. I think the Conservatives will in time come to regard this GE as a terrible mistake but obviously not in the short term.
As for Daisy, she has made her decision just as the Conservative prospective candidate in Coventry South has too and I respect him for that.
My line is not absurd at all - I said it was no big deal that she said she was ready and then decided she was not. However I was responding because you were absurd because you decided to make a partisan attack of it by saying there would be more sympathy for her if she were a conservative, and ignoring what was indeed a platitude, but a relevant one to the attack you were making 'She only believe the PM', when the fact her line changed in a week is relevant when poling fun at her.
I'm not criticising her decision at all. The GE came as a shock, many people may not be ready and they shouldn't stand if they aren't, and its only mild embarrassment if they responded with platitudes and then have to back down. But you decided to assume partisan motivation was behind it, and that was what was absurd.
And I don't really understand why you went partisan in the first place, getting superior about it. Why would someone be more sympathetic if she were conservative?
Sometimes non-tories really do all they can to make people believe ridiculous Tory whinges about being treated unfairly.
Greetings infidels, I thought I might pop back on for the duration of the GE, hope everyone is in tip top shape. I'll be doing a few constituency bets this time around, see if I can catch a few mid single figure to one Tory gains. Locally I can report Clive Lewis has his work cut out but will probably be saved on the basis of a split Green/Con challenge. The green ceiling will save him I think and there just aren't enough Tories in the city, worth a punt on the Greens hitting 25% though. Norman Lamb is going to struggle to hold Norfolk North. Everything else is nailed on blue in Norfolk.
Jim Messina, the American Democratic political consultant who spent two years as President Obama’s deputy chief of staff, has been hired by the Conservatives to work on their election campaign, Bloomberg’s Tim Ross reports. Messina also worked for the Tories on their 2015 campaign. Ross says:
[Messina’s] appointment brings together the key figures in the team behind Cameron’s success in 2015. May has also hired Lynton Crosby, the political strategist, Mark Textor, the pollster and Crosby’s business partner, and the digital media specialists Craig Elder and Tom Edmonds, all of whom worked for the Cameron campaign.
Is it Messina's job to pay the hotel bills -- in cash, using unmarked, non-consecutive notes?
Your response seems to completely ignore that she said she was ready to take on the snap election last week.
t it.
I see kicking the wasp's nest has only angered the wasps. I ought to know that by now
I don't know the full story - your comment is absurd only inasmuch as everyone said they wanted an election and were ready for it even if the truth was everyone (including CCHQ it seems) was caught out.
You have to say you're ready and eager for the fight - it's a platitude. Most activists won't be happy with the Prime Minister - those who are fighting hard in County Council Wards will have to keep going for another month instead of that post-election break, rest, clearing out the garage that they had planned to do.
Imagine if Corbyn or Farron had said "we're not ready" - the response on here would be fairly predictable. I think there was a line which could have been "the Prime Minister should, instead of the unnecessary diversion and delay of a General Election, be getting on with the job. There is much for her to do as she keeps reminding us. Her time would be better spent doing that job".
I think that line might have got some traction but both Corbyn and Farron are campaigners and want to be out there campaigning. I think the Conservatives will in time come to regard this GE as a terrible mistake but obviously not in the short term.
As for Daisy, she has made her decision just as the Conservative prospective candidate in Coventry South has too and I respect him for that.
My line is not absurd at all - I said it was no big deal that she said she was ready and then decided she was not. However I was responding because you were absurd because you decided to make a partisan attack of it by saying there would be more sympathy for her if she were a conservative, and ignoring what was indeed a platitude, but a relevant one to the attack you were making 'She only believe the PM', when the fact her line changed in a week is relevant when poling fun at her.
I'm not criticising her decision at all. The GE came as a shock, many people may not be ready and they shouldn't stand if they aren't, and its only mild embarrassment if they responded with platitudes and then have to back down. But you decided to assume poartisan motivation was behind it, and that was what was absurd.
The contrast between her two statements isn't itself remarkable, as you say. But aiming her life and political career at one thing for years, benefiting from a lot of support and backing from senior people in the party in the process, and then ducking out when it actually comes along would seem to be somewhat peculiar. Particularly as, unlike Labour, the LibDems have both been telling their candidates to expect a 2017 election and actively preparing for it.
Daisy didn't say she was running btw in the linked interview by the way: She said: "Bring it on. We've been prepared a long time for this- what Yeovil needs is an MP who can stick up for the constituency."
Sounds like there's more to her standing down than just a house move, especially given that her reason for moving house was to live in the constituency.
No, imagine if her completion date is the date of the GE. It'll interfere with her campaigning and all sorts - imagine if she is canvassing and the estate agent or her solicitor calls. The white heat of a GE campaign + moving house sounds v v stressful to me. Allan Andrews won't be standing for the Tories in Coventry South as he is a new Dad too.
Sure it's stressful, but if she has a good solicitor the actual process of purchasing shouldn't be too difficult. She'll probably also have a team around her for the campaign who can get papers to sign etc to her if urgently required.
A new baby I can understand more as an excuse for standing aside, genuine family reason.
I assume and hope that Pulpstar was joking.
Eh ?
You really think the admin and hassle involved in the average house sale/purchase/move is such that you can't combine it with a General Election campaign? How then could you possibly manage such a thing while being an actual MP? For instance, the answer to "imagine if she is canvassing and the estate agent or her solicitor calls" is: put your phone on silent, pick up and return messages when a break allows, ask people to email rather than phone when possible.
Surprised to see that my former MP Bob Russell is standing this time around. Not that age should be a barrier, but at 71 I'd assumed he wouldn't. Slightly worried for Will who's done a good job in the last two years, but then again he beat Sir Bob last time and there's Kipper votes to hoover up. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000644
Greetings infidels, I thought I might pop back on for the duration of the GE, hope everyone is in tip top shape. I'll be doing a few constituency bets this time around, see if I can catch a few mid single figure to one Tory gains. Locally I can report Clive Lewis has his work cut out but will probably be saved on the basis of a split Green/Con challenge. The green ceiling will save him I think and there just aren't enough Tories in the city, worth a punt on the Greens hitting 25% though. Norman Lamb is going to struggle to hold Norfolk North. Everything else is nailed on blue in Norfolk.
Stormin' Norman will hold. He has a genuine personal vote there.
Daisy didn't say she was running btw in the linked interview by the way: She said: "Bring it on. We've been prepared a long time for this- what Yeovil needs is an MP who can stick up for the constituency."
Heavily implied, but if the quote is accurate, there' s'more wiggle room there than May's denials about a GE. Doesn't make the claim that was made that a tory would get more sympathy over seemingly being up for it then backing out a week later any less nonsense. Such a surprisingly partisan comment with so little justification, I just am baffled it was made.
Haha to Mortimer and his ilk....the populist right has been well and truly stopped in it's tracks, and the EU is going to strengthen.
On Corbyn...the gift that just keeps on giving. The bellend cannot stop talking about his pet interests.
On Roger.....note to pbERs, do not take him at face value. He is an articulate lefty polemicist who posts with a confident verve dosed with a naughty degree of mischief.
One of the things that made me think that there was always a possibility of an early GE was that Theresa May never did rule it out. Her wording was very clearly leaving open that space. She said that she didn't want one and had no plans to call one. Given the amount of work and phone calls I've had over the last week and how CCHQ and regional offices were caught on the hop, I've no doubt that's true: no on-the-ground preparation had been made beyond that which was already being done for 2020.
She changed her mind; she didn't lie.
Indeed, David, and I'm more than happy to acknowledge there was no falsehood on the Prime Minister's part but you have to agree there had been, on a number of occasions, a fairly unambiguous tone there was no immediate prospect of a GE.
Up to now, I've been fairly agnostic about whether we should allow PMs the right to call a GE unilaterally and while the FTPA has its value, it was never (despite what some on her claimed) designed wholly as a bulwark against an election. In essence, it passed a degree of control to MPs and given everyone apparently decided they wanted an election, the FTPA was never going to block that.
Indeed, IF the Conservatives win 435 seats on June 8th, they will have the power to call an election whenever they wish irrespective of what the Opposition wants.
Surprised to see that my former MP Bob Russell is standing this time around. Not that age should be a barrier, but at 71 I'd assumed he wouldn't. Slightly worried for Will who's done a good job in the last two years, but then again he beat Sir Bob last time and there's Kipper votes to hoover up. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000644
Are the number of aging LibDem retreads an indication that they don't expect much out of this election?
But great great wine is now being made around the world, and often at a quarter of the cost. If you want a brilliant wine for £5 or £10 or £20, you generally don't buy French ....
This is my specialist subject, and I disagree except at the cheapest end. The best value good wines in the world currently are predominantly French, most especially from the Southern Rhone and Languedoc-Roussillon - and particularly the whites, which are a still bit of a secret. Also the Loire. They've really upped their game over the last ten years or so.
@Richard_Nabavi - What is your take on biodynamic wines, such as the ones made in Languedoc-Roussillon?
I cannot believe that anything can be added to a wine's quality by using fertiliser made from cow dung buried in a cowhorn for a long time and then stirred into water in a figure-of-eight. That's one of the key elements in the "anthroposophical" "biodynamic" bunkum. I suspect that like the "scientologists" in Hollywood they have an arm that is tasked with recruiting rich people, and that in their case the production and marketing of "biodynamic" wines is part of its operation, because that helps them sort the gullible out from the aware. I'd be very interested to hear your view.
Surprised to see that my former MP Bob Russell is standing this time around. Not that age should be a barrier, but at 71 I'd assumed he wouldn't. Slightly worried for Will who's done a good job in the last two years, but then again he beat Sir Bob last time and there's Kipper votes to hoover up. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000644
Are the number of aging LibDem retreads an indication that they don't expect much out of this election?
Or that they are singularly unsuited to doing anything else?
Haha to Mortimer and his ilk....the populist right has been well and truly stopped in it's tracks, and the EU is going to strengthen.
On Corbyn...the gift that just keeps on giving. The bellend cannot stop talking about his pet interests.
On Roger.....note to pbERs, do not take him at face value. He is an articulate lefty polemicist who posts with a confident verve dosed with a naughty degree of mischief.
Greetings infidels, I thought I might pop back on for the duration of the GE, hope everyone is in tip top shape. I'll be doing a few constituency bets this time around, see if I can catch a few mid single figure to one Tory gains. Locally I can report Clive Lewis has his work cut out but will probably be saved on the basis of a split Green/Con challenge. The green ceiling will save him I think and there just aren't enough Tories in the city, worth a punt on the Greens hitting 25% though. Norman Lamb is going to struggle to hold Norfolk North. Everything else is nailed on blue in Norfolk.
Stormin' Norman will hold. He has a genuine personal vote there.
I marginally favour hold but I've got him losing on a Tory national share North of 43/44% in broad terms. There's a very strong blue brexit tide in all parts of Norfolk outside the fine city and its formerly a strong blue seat. Lambs personal vote is very strong though, yes.
Sounds like there's more to her standing down than just a house move, especially given that her reason for moving house was to live in the constituency.
No, imagine if her completion date is the date of the GE. It'll interfere with her campaigning and all sorts - imagine if she is canvassing and the estate agent or her solicitor calls. The white heat of a GE campaign + moving house sounds v v stressful to me. Allan Andrews won't be standing for the Tories in Coventry South as he is a new Dad too.
Sure it's stressful, but if she has a good solicitor the actual process of purchasing shouldn't be too difficult. She'll probably also have a team around her for the campaign who can get papers to sign etc to her if urgently required.
A new baby I can understand more as an excuse for standing aside, genuine family reason.
I assume and hope that Pulpstar was joking.
Eh ?
You really think the admin and hassle involved in the average house sale/purchase/move is such that you can't combine it with a General Election campaign? How then could you possibly manage such a thing while being an actual MP? For instance, the answer to "imagine if she is canvassing and the estate agent or her solicitor calls" is: put your phone on silent, pick up and return messages when a break allows, ask people to email rather than phone when possible.
Perhaps her current job pays more and she would have to quit to be an MP ? Mortgage affordability checks etc - being an MP is not such a certain job... being a PPC for 2020 isn't something the lenders might look at but say if she is taking a 20k pay cut then perhaps the house isn't affordable. I don't know her exact circumstances. Do you ?
Greetings infidels, I thought I might pop back on for the duration of the GE, hope everyone is in tip top shape. I'll be doing a few constituency bets this time around, see if I can catch a few mid single figure to one Tory gains. Locally I can report Clive Lewis has his work cut out but will probably be saved on the basis of a split Green/Con challenge. The green ceiling will save him I think and there just aren't enough Tories in the city, worth a punt on the Greens hitting 25% though. Norman Lamb is going to struggle to hold Norfolk North. Everything else is nailed on blue in Norfolk.
Stormin' Norman will hold. He has a genuine personal vote there.
Greetings infidels, I thought I might pop back on for the duration of the GE, hope everyone is in tip top shape. I'll be doing a few constituency bets this time around, see if I can catch a few mid single figure to one Tory gains. Locally I can report Clive Lewis has his work cut out but will probably be saved on the basis of a split Green/Con challenge. The green ceiling will save him I think and there just aren't enough Tories in the city, worth a punt on the Greens hitting 25% though. Norman Lamb is going to struggle to hold Norfolk North. Everything else is nailed on blue in Norfolk.
Stormin' Norman will hold. He has a genuine personal vote there.
I marginally favour hold but I've got him losing on a Tory national share North of 43/44% in broad terms. There's a very strong blue brexit tide in all parts of Norfolk outside the fine city and its formerly a strong blue seat. Lambs personal vote is very strong though, yes.
Both him and Tom Brake have a heck of a fight on their hands but I think they'll pull through.
A long-years PB.com mostly-lurker, addicted polanorak but betting rank-amateur, only betting at GE/Referendum time, my first serious bet was on Con Maj for 2015 - yay! - thanks to some chaps here and my usually unreliable gut feeling.
I bet very small at 5 bookies, mostly on tips from shrewdies hereabouts plus large dollops of DYOR. My biggest risk this time (thus far, anyway) is low double figures on that SkyBet triple which exactly mirrors my longtime instinct. If I win, double-yay. If I lose, meh. But great fun. I've got about 20 smaller fun bets on the go, too. Loads of excitement for the price of a posh coffee a day, basically. Or the Price of a packet of Tissue.
This is the best-informed political site in the UK, imo, even aside from the betting, not to mention the most literate, relaxed and bloody witty.
You chaps keep me up late most election-campaign nights, just (but not only) for the craic as my Irish grandmother would Ave It, and this is the best possible place for a polanorak to spend election night. Better than being at the count, for sure.
Many thanks to all. (Even the rude posters. With three exceptions. You know who you are.) Particularly OGH and the mod team.
Can I echo this assessment of the site? It's definitely my go-to on election night to find out exactly what is happening and what it means.
Is the donate button still around? I use the vanilla site as I like to read the comments in chronological order and can't work out how to do that on the main site.
BBC Wales reporting former Plaid Cymru leader Ieuan Wyn Jones is hoping to be their candidate for Ynys Mon (Anglesey) a seat every poll has them winning off Labour
Surprised to see that my former MP Bob Russell is standing this time around. Not that age should be a barrier, but at 71 I'd assumed he wouldn't. Slightly worried for Will who's done a good job in the last two years, but then again he beat Sir Bob last time and there's Kipper votes to hoover up. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000644
Are the number of aging LibDem retreads an indication that they don't expect much out of this election?
Sounds like there's more to her standing down than just a house move, especially given that her reason for moving house was to live in the constituency.
No, imagine if her completion date is the date of the GE. It'll interfere with her campaigning and all sorts - imagine if she is canvassing and the estate agent or her solicitor calls. The white heat of a GE campaign + moving house sounds v v stressful to me. Allan Andrews won't be standing for the Tories in Coventry South as he is a new Dad too.
Sure it's stressful, but if she has a good solicitor the actual process of purchasing shouldn't be too difficult. She'll probably also have a team around her for the campaign who can get papers to sign etc to her if urgently required.
A new baby I can understand more as an excuse for standing aside, genuine family reason.
I assume and hope that Pulpstar was joking.
Eh ?
You really think the admin and hassle involved in the average house sale/purchase/move is such that you can't combine it with a General Election campaign? How then could you possibly manage such a thing while being an actual MP? For instance, the answer to "imagine if she is canvassing and the estate agent or her solicitor calls" is: put your phone on silent, pick up and return messages when a break allows, ask people to email rather than phone when possible.
Perhaps her current job pays more and she would have to quit to be an MP ? Mortgage affordability checks etc - being an MP is not such a certain job... being a PPC for 2020 isn't something the lenders might look at but say if she is taking a 20k pay cut then perhaps the house isn't affordable. I don't know her exact circumstances. Do you ?
Of course if the LibDems win then there will be an incumbent and she'll have to move again...
Greetings infidels, I thought I might pop back on for the duration of the GE, hope everyone is in tip top shape. I'll be doing a few constituency bets this time around, see if I can catch a few mid single figure to one Tory gains. Locally I can report Clive Lewis has his work cut out but will probably be saved on the basis of a split Green/Con challenge. The green ceiling will save him I think and there just aren't enough Tories in the city, worth a punt on the Greens hitting 25% though. Norman Lamb is going to struggle to hold Norfolk North. Everything else is nailed on blue in Norfolk.
Dyed woolie
I'm in Clive Lewis territory....Because of Brexit our Tuscan dream is but a distant memory. I've got a red and green board out, for the locals admittedly, but they can stay for the nationals. I'm voting Green for both, but out of loyalty for Labour thought I'd put a board for them.
Pleasingly there is not a single Tory board out in the Golden Triangle as far as a I can see...
BBC Wales reporting former Plaid Cymru leader Ieuan Wyn Jones is hoping to be their candidate for Ynys Mon (Anglesey) a seat every poll has them winning off Labour
Ynys Mon is a weird seat and one that uniform national swing has never previously been of much assistance for.
Surprised to see that my former MP Bob Russell is standing this time around. Not that age should be a barrier, but at 71 I'd assumed he wouldn't. Slightly worried for Will who's done a good job in the last two years, but then again he beat Sir Bob last time and there's Kipper votes to hoover up. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000644
Are the number of aging LibDem retreads an indication that they don't expect much out of this election?
I wondered that - maybe Bob was persuaded to stand on the grounds that he wouldn't win, but his personal vote could help at least keep Colchester a Con/LD fight rather than becoming a Con/Lab one like nearby Ipswich.
Re Pulpstar and the Lambinator. Yeah, marginally in favour of hold by 5-10% but I'm not going to be betting on it and he is definitely worth backing against if the polling stays high 40s and this is supported on the doorstep.
My line is not absurd at all - I said it was no big deal that she said she was ready and then decided she was not. However I was responding because you were absurd because you decided to make a partisan attack of it by saying there would be more sympathy for her if she were a conservative, and ignoring what was indeed a platitude, but a relevant one to the attack you were making 'She only believe the PM', when the fact her line changed in a week is relevant when poling fun at her.
I'm not criticising her decision at all. The GE came as a shock, many people may not be ready and they shouldn't stand if they aren't, and its only mild embarrassment if they responded with platitudes and then have to back down. But you decided to assume partisan motivation was behind it, and that was what was absurd.
And I don't really understand why you went partisan in the first place, getting superior about it. Why would someone be more sympathetic if she were conservative?
Sometimes non-tories really do all they can to make people believe ridiculous Tory whinges about being treated unfairly.
If you want to start a fight in an empty room, be my guest.
This is a heavily partisan political forum in case you haven't noticed. If you want objective non-biased commentary, you won't find it here.
Yeovil was an LD seat for many years until David Laws lost it in 2015. It's the kind of seat which, if those who are overstating the LD fightback are to be believed, is the sort that could revert back to the LD flow. The unexpected withdrawal of the candidate makes that less likely and therefore more likely the Conservatives will hold the seat.
That's good news in the eyes of most Conservatives irrespective of what they may think about the incumbent MP.
BBC Wales reporting former Plaid Cymru leader Ieuan Wyn Jones is hoping to be their candidate for Ynys Mon (Anglesey) a seat every poll has them winning off Labour
Ynys Mon is a weird seat and one that uniform national swing has never previously been of much assistance for.
Its certainly one I'm not backing Labour in though !
Surprised to see that my former MP Bob Russell is standing this time around. Not that age should be a barrier, but at 71 I'd assumed he wouldn't. Slightly worried for Will who's done a good job in the last two years, but then again he beat Sir Bob last time and there's Kipper votes to hoover up. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000644
Are the number of aging LibDem retreads an indication that they don't expect much out of this election?
Or that they are singularly unsuited to doing anything else?
Probably true in a lot of cases but in fairness to Sir Bob - someone I'd never vote for - he's taken a role leading tours around the town and is apparently quite good at it.
BBC Wales reporting former Plaid Cymru leader Ieuan Wyn Jones is hoping to be their candidate for Ynys Mon (Anglesey) a seat every poll has them winning off Labour
Ynys Mon is a weird seat and one that uniform national swing has never previously been of much assistance for.
Its certainly one I'm not backing Labour in though !
Haha to Mortimer and his ilk....the populist right has been well and truly stopped in it's tracks, and the EU is going to strengthen.
On Corbyn...the gift that just keeps on giving. The bellend cannot stop talking about his pet interests.
On Roger.....note to pbERs, do not take him at face value. He is an articulate lefty polemicist who posts with a confident verve dosed with a naughty degree of mischief.
For any bird people...we have just discovered (to our great delight) a nesting Robin's nest in our garden. Is there anything we can do to help? This morning the female seems very agitated and is leaving the nest alot. The eggs haven't hatched yet.
My line is not absurd at all - I said it was no big deal that she said she was ready and then decided she was not. However I was responding because you were absurd because you decided to make a partisan attack of it by saying there would be more sympathy for her if she were a conservative, and ignoring what was indeed a platitude, but a relevant one to the attack you were making 'She only believe the PM', when the fact her line changed in a week is relevant when poling fun at her.
I'm not criticising her decision at all. The GE came as a shock, many people may not be ready and they shouldn't stand if they aren't, and its only mild embarrassment if they responded with platitudes and then have to back down. But you decided to assume partisan motivation was behind it, and that was what was absurd.
And I don't really understand why you went partisan in the first place, getting superior about it. Why would someone be more sympathetic if she were conservative?
Sometimes non-tories really do all they can to make people believe ridiculous Tory whinges about being treated unfairly.
If you want to start a fight in an empty room, be my guest.
This is a heavily partisan political forum in case you haven't noticed. If you want objective non-biased commentary, you won't find it here.
Yeovil was an LD seat for many years until David Laws lost it in 2015. It's the kind of seat which, if those who are overstating the LD fightback are to be believed, is the sort that could revert back to the LD flow. The unexpected withdrawal of the candidate makes that less likely and therefore more likely the Conservatives will hold the seat.
That's good news in the eyes of most Conservatives irrespective of what they may think about the incumbent MP.
Greetings infidels, I thought I might pop back on for the duration of the GE, hope everyone is in tip top shape. I'll be doing a few constituency bets this time around, see if I can catch a few mid single figure to one Tory gains. Locally I can report Clive Lewis has his work cut out but will probably be saved on the basis of a split Green/Con challenge. The green ceiling will save him I think and there just aren't enough Tories in the city, worth a punt on the Greens hitting 25% though. Norman Lamb is going to struggle to hold Norfolk North. Everything else is nailed on blue in Norfolk.
Dyed woolie
I'm in Clive Lewis territory....Because of Brexit our Tuscan dream is but a distant memory. I've got a red and green board out, for the locals admittedly, but they can stay for the nationals. I'm voting Green for both, but out of loyalty for Labour thought I'd put a board for them.
Pleasingly there is not a single Tory board out in the Golden Triangle as far as a I can see...
Hey hey Tyson, I live in the triangle too, near the best little pub in Norwich. Labour boards here strong, as are green. A solitary Lib Dem and no Tory or kippers but the Tory vote will be strong in the burbs away from the Uni.
He could stand again as an independent - for the Pillocks with Principles Party.
His most long-lasting impact on British politics will be to ensure that no-one is dumb enough to say they will re-submit themselves to the voters if policy x y or z is/isn't implemented.
Surprised to see that my former MP Bob Russell is standing this time around. Not that age should be a barrier, but at 71 I'd assumed he wouldn't. Slightly worried for Will who's done a good job in the last two years, but then again he beat Sir Bob last time and there's Kipper votes to hoover up. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000644
Are the number of aging LibDem retreads an indication that they don't expect much out of this election?
Or that they are singularly unsuited to doing anything else?
Oh look, kle4, a snide Tory comment against the Lib Dems - am I allowed to respond ?
In all seriousness, given most people expected the next GE to be in 2020, it's no surprise a lot of constituency parties of all stripes hadn't made any provision for an immediate GE.
The obvious place to start is the 2015 candidate if he or she is willing and as you say there's an element of name recognition.
There was also the issue of boundary changes which was in the process of consultation which could have forced change on a number of MPs.
So far I've backed Welsh Labour in two seats, Rhondda and Aberavon (1-5 and 4-6 respectively). The fact that Aberavon is 1-5 tells you all you need to know about how terrible the expectations are for Labour in Wales. Normally that is a 1-500 shot.
I wonder what it must feel like leading a party into a General Election knowing you personally are responsible for the looming disasterous result and being the cause of so many devoted people losing their jobs?
I agree - it sounds malevolent! Moreover I don't see what he has to gain from it because he will be ousted anyway. What will he have achieved beyond serious humiliation and the further discrediting of his own brand within his own party? Perhaps it is nothing more than some form of kinky sexual masochism.
For any bird people...we have just discovered (to our great delight) a nesting Robin's nest in our garden. Is there anything we can do to help? This morning the female seems very agitated and is leaving the nest alot. The eggs haven't hatched yet.
So far I've backed Welsh Labour in two seats, Rhondda and Aberavon (1-5 and 4-6 respectively). The fact that Aberavon is 1-5 tells you all you need to know about how terrible the expectations are for Labour in Wales. Normally that is a 1-500 shot.
I too am hoping that for Labour it is Cwm Rhondda rather than Go Rhondda.
Greetings infidels, I thought I might pop back on for the duration of the GE, hope everyone is in tip top shape. I'll be doing a few constituency bets this time around, see if I can catch a few mid single figure to one Tory gains. Locally I can report Clive Lewis has his work cut out but will probably be saved on the basis of a split Green/Con challenge. The green ceiling will save him I think and there just aren't enough Tories in the city, worth a punt on the Greens hitting 25% though. Norman Lamb is going to struggle to hold Norfolk North. Everything else is nailed on blue in Norfolk.
Dyed woolie
I'm in Clive Lewis territory....Because of Brexit our Tuscan dream is but a distant memory. I've got a red and green board out, for the locals admittedly, but they can stay for the nationals. I'm voting Green for both, but out of loyalty for Labour thought I'd put a board for them.
Pleasingly there is not a single Tory board out in the Golden Triangle as far as a I can see...
Hey hey Tyson, I live in the triangle too, near the best little pub in Norwich. Labour boards here strong, as are green. A solitary Lib Dem and no Tory or kippers but the Tory vote will be strong in the burbs away from the Uni.
Is there any correlation at all between the number of boards up for each party and the number of votes they get? I live in Bucks, which is fairly safe Tory territory, but hardly ever see any Conservative boards. The only ones I've seen this time are for a Lib-Dem and an independent.
For any bird people...we have just discovered (to our great delight) a nesting Robin's nest in our garden. Is there anything we can do to help? This morning the female seems very agitated and is leaving the nest alot. The eggs haven't hatched yet.
Robins are very partial to meal worms (your local pet shop/garden centre should have them). Otherwise, they are pretty good at looking after themselves.
The young are very spotty when they fledge. And good at hiding, so you might not see much of them. And the parents go very skulking during the summer, while they moult their red breast, so they may seem to have gone invisible for a while. But they will be around.
Greetings infidels, I thought I might pop back on for the duration of the GE, hope everyone is in tip top shape. I'll be doing a few constituency bets this time around, see if I can catch a few mid single figure to one Tory gains. Locally I can report Clive Lewis has his work cut out but will probably be saved on the basis of a split Green/Con challenge. The green ceiling will save him I think and there just aren't enough Tories in the city, worth a punt on the Greens hitting 25% though. Norman Lamb is going to struggle to hold Norfolk North. Everything else is nailed on blue in Norfolk.
Welcome back, and thanks for the Norfolk updates. So, apart from Norman, non-Tories have got Norfolk & Chance in the county?
So far I've backed Welsh Labour in two seats, Rhondda and Aberavon (1-5 and 4-6 respectively). The fact that Aberavon is 1-5 tells you all you need to know about how terrible the expectations are for Labour in Wales. Normally that is a 1-500 shot.
I've bet on the Tories for aberavon (by mistake - some betfait sportsbook website weirdness) and Plaid in the Rhonda before Wood said she wouldn't stand). Such is the state of Labour in Wales that They might not be the losers they should...
Haha to Mortimer and his ilk....the populist right has been well and truly stopped in it's tracks, and the EU is going to strengthen.
On Corbyn...the gift that just keeps on giving. The bellend cannot stop talking about his pet interests.
On Roger.....note to pbERs, do not take him at face value. He is an articulate lefty polemicist who posts with a confident verve dosed with a naughty degree of mischief.
TYSON! Great to see you back mate
Morning Tyson - I am pleased that Macron has won and wish France well. I also have no wish for Europe to fail but on the assumption Theresa May gets a good majority in June I believe a fair settlement with the EU is on the cards and with a sensible transitional period. May was a remainer and will not allow us to go off the cliff but she has to hold that line as a strength in negotiation.
I cannot believe Corbyn - he is just unelectable and how any labour MP can stand in support of him amazes me - I hope the voter decapitation of labour is swift and total
I'm currently reading Dennis Skinner's autobiography Sailing Close to the Wind
The guy has a very high opinion of himself. He thinks he swung Braintree and Falmouth and Camborne for Labour in 1997 by visiting the seats during the election. He concludes one chapter with this gem:
The last two Labour governments lost office after the prime ministers mishandled the dates of the elections. Never let us hear again any nonsense that it is the Left that makes Labour unelectable.
I'm currently reading Dennis Skinner's autobiography Sailing Close to the Wind
The guy has a very high opinion of himself. He thinks he swung Braintree and Falmouth and Camborne for Labour in 1997 by visiting the seats during the election. He concludes one chapter with this gem:
The last two Labour governments lost office after the prime ministers mishandled the dates of the elections. Never let us hear again any nonsense that it is the Left that makes Labour unelectable.
For any bird people...we have just discovered (to our great delight) a nesting Robin's nest in our garden. Is there anything we can do to help? This morning the female seems very agitated and is leaving the nest alot. The eggs haven't hatched yet.
Greetings infidels, I thought I might pop back on for the duration of the GE, hope everyone is in tip top shape. I'll be doing a few constituency bets this time around, see if I can catch a few mid single figure to one Tory gains. Locally I can report Clive Lewis has his work cut out but will probably be saved on the basis of a split Green/Con challenge. The green ceiling will save him I think and there just aren't enough Tories in the city, worth a punt on the Greens hitting 25% though. Norman Lamb is going to struggle to hold Norfolk North. Everything else is nailed on blue in Norfolk.
Dyed woolie
I'm in Clive Lewis territory....Because of Brexit our Tuscan dream is but a distant memory. I've got a red and green board out, for the locals admittedly, but they can stay for the nationals. I'm voting Green for both, but out of loyalty for Labour thought I'd put a board for them.
Pleasingly there is not a single Tory board out in the Golden Triangle as far as a I can see...
Hey hey Tyson, I live in the triangle too, near the best little pub in Norwich. Labour boards here strong, as are green. A solitary Lib Dem and no Tory or kippers but the Tory vote will be strong in the burbs away from the Uni.
Is there any correlation at all between the number of boards up for each party and the number of votes they get? I live in Bucks, which is fairly safe Tory territory, but hardly ever see any Conservative boards. The only ones I've seen this time are for a Lib-Dem and an independent.
Very little. Was just comparing notes with Tyson really. There are always hundreds of red and green boards in the triangle.
Greetings infidels, I thought I might pop back on for the duration of the GE, hope everyone is in tip top shape. I'll be doing a few constituency bets this time around, see if I can catch a few mid single figure to one Tory gains. Locally I can report Clive Lewis has his work cut out but will probably be saved on the basis of a split Green/Con challenge. The green ceiling will save him I think and there just aren't enough Tories in the city, worth a punt on the Greens hitting 25% though. Norman Lamb is going to struggle to hold Norfolk North. Everything else is nailed on blue in Norfolk.
Welcome back, and thanks for the Norfolk updates. So, apart from Norman, non-Tories have got Norfolk & Chance in the county?
Lewis should win Norwich south, but everything else is into 5-10k plus Tory majority apart from Lamb
For any bird people...we have just discovered (to our great delight) a nesting Robin's nest in our garden. Is there anything we can do to help? This morning the female seems very agitated and is leaving the nest alot. The eggs haven't hatched yet.
Greetings infidels, I thought I might pop back on for the duration of the GE, hope everyone is in tip top shape. I'll be doing a few constituency bets this time around, see if I can catch a few mid single figure to one Tory gains. Locally I can report Clive Lewis has his work cut out but will probably be saved on the basis of a split Green/Con challenge. The green ceiling will save him I think and there just aren't enough Tories in the city, worth a punt on the Greens hitting 25% though. Norman Lamb is going to struggle to hold Norfolk North. Everything else is nailed on blue in Norfolk.
Dyed woolie
I'm in Clive Lewis territory....Because of Brexit our Tuscan dream is but a distant memory. I've got a red and green board out, for the locals admittedly, but they can stay for the nationals. I'm voting Green for both, but out of loyalty for Labour thought I'd put a board for them.
Pleasingly there is not a single Tory board out in the Golden Triangle as far as a I can see...
Hey hey Tyson, I live in the triangle too, near the best little pub in Norwich. Labour boards here strong, as are green. A solitary Lib Dem and no Tory or kippers but the Tory vote will be strong in the burbs away from the Uni.
What is the best little pub in Norwich? There are so many nice pubs around here, and most allow dogs.
If you see someone walking a white fluffy little rat sized dog that howls at everything (the worst behaved dog in the Triangle) called Trotsky...I'm your man.
This is such a lovely part of the world.....great pubs, vibrant, students, friendly, green, quiet, liberal and open minded, and easy access to culture. There is a wonderful Paul Nash exhibition at the Sainsbury's Centre. OK it's not quite Florence, but it really is an idyllic part of England. Comparable in many levels to Oxford, and in some, even better..
I'm currently reading Dennis Skinner's autobiography Sailing Close to the Wind
The guy has a very high opinion of himself. He thinks he swung Braintree and Falmouth and Camborne for Labour in 1997 by visiting the seats during the election. He concludes one chapter with this gem:
The last two Labour governments lost office after the prime ministers mishandled the dates of the elections. Never let us hear again any nonsense that it is the Left that makes Labour unelectable.
If only Gordon Brown had held an election in 2008, standing on a platform of nationalising supermarkets and an 80% top rate of income tax, he'd have swept to power.
For any bird people...we have just discovered (to our great delight) a nesting Robin's nest in our garden. Is there anything we can do to help? This morning the female seems very agitated and is leaving the nest alot. The eggs haven't hatched yet.
I'm currently reading Dennis Skinner's autobiography Sailing Close to the Wind
The guy has a very high opinion of himself. He thinks he swung Braintree and Falmouth and Camborne for Labour in 1997 by visiting the seats during the election. He concludes one chapter with this gem:
The last two Labour governments lost office after the prime ministers mishandled the dates of the elections. Never let us hear again any nonsense that it is the Left that makes Labour unelectable.
Some thoughts on the other home of mine, Scotland. Polling suggests dramatic times for the Tories and loads of gains but I don't see it. They ought to win the borders seats, but then again they always ought to win D and G and never seem to. Got a feeling after those three then it's a case of loads or nowt. They will either surge, or more likely, be second a lot. I mean Scotland has moved decisive.y away since 92, and even then they had, what, 11 of 79?
@Richard_Nabavi - What is your take on biodynamic wines, such as the ones made in Languedoc-Roussillon?
I cannot believe that anything can be added to a wine's quality by using fertiliser made from cow dung buried in a cowhorn for a long time and then stirred into water in a figure-of-eight. That's one of the key elements in the "anthroposophical" "biodynamic" bunkum. I suspect that like the "scientologists" in Hollywood they have an arm that is tasked with recruiting rich people, and that in their case the production and marketing of "biodynamic" wines is part of its operation, because that helps them sort the gullible out from the aware. I'd be very interested to hear your view.
As you say, all that stuff about the phase of the moon etc is obvious bunkum, and you are certainly right that in some cases it's marketing nonsense. However, it's undeniable that some biodynamic wines are very good indeed. For example, Chapoutier is a big producer and makes exclusively biodynamic wines - and they are systematically of top quality at each price level. It's quite likely that simply avoiding chemical treatments is part of the key to improved quality. Also using natural yeasts only is probably a key factor - commercial yeasts are more effective in converting sugar to alcohol but that can make the wines unbalanced.
Overall, therefore, I don't take too much notice of whether the wine is biodynamic, there are very good wines made which are, and very good wines which are not.
For any bird people...we have just discovered (to our great delight) a nesting Robin's nest in our garden. Is there anything we can do to help? This morning the female seems very agitated and is leaving the nest alot. The eggs haven't hatched yet.
As we are praising this site this morning, I would like to say that I have been a loyal follower for almost all its existence. This is despite not having bet on anything since a horse called Julio Mariner. There will be people here who know when that was better than I. From the start I was fascinated by its "A" level psephology. Now its at graduate level and absolutely vital considering the woeful reporting on the tv and the press.
Comments
The French use a system only slightly less stupid than our own SV, which is neither FPTP nor fully preferential.
Jim Messina, the American Democratic political consultant who spent two years as President Obama’s deputy chief of staff, has been hired by the Conservatives to work on their election campaign, Bloomberg’s Tim Ross reports. Messina also worked for the Tories on their 2015 campaign. Ross says:
[Messina’s] appointment brings together the key figures in the team behind Cameron’s success in 2015. May has also hired Lynton Crosby, the political strategist, Mark Textor, the pollster and Crosby’s business partner, and the digital media specialists Craig Elder and Tom Edmonds, all of whom worked for the Cameron campaign.
I don't know the full story - your comment is absurd only inasmuch as everyone said they wanted an election and were ready for it even if the truth was everyone (including CCHQ it seems) was caught out.
You have to say you're ready and eager for the fight - it's a platitude. Most activists won't be happy with the Prime Minister - those who are fighting hard in County Council Wards will have to keep going for another month instead of that post-election break, rest, clearing out the garage that they had planned to do.
Imagine if Corbyn or Farron had said "we're not ready" - the response on here would be fairly predictable. I think there was a line which could have been "the Prime Minister should, instead of the unnecessary diversion and delay of a General Election, be getting on with the job. There is much for her to do as she keeps reminding us. Her time would be better spent doing that job".
I think that line might have got some traction but both Corbyn and Farron are campaigners and want to be out there campaigning. I think the Conservatives will in time come to regard this GE as a terrible mistake but obviously not in the short term.
As for Daisy, she has made her decision just as the Conservative prospective candidate in Coventry South has too and I respect him for that.
By contrast the joy of the EU is something I'm aware of most days. 28 countries all with distinct cultures history and in most cases language where we can work trade and live in as easily as we can Wales or Scotland.
.....And all pooling the same civilised values whille bringing our own unique charateristics to this great party.
The greatest cultural and creative exchange the world has ever seen or is ever likely to see. a great shared experience. The Italians love of life the French love of culture the civilising influence of the Dutch the Spain of Almodovar the organisation of the Germans the creativity of the British the intelligence of the Portuguese all there and freely available for our delectation
We've just made the bigget mistake in a millenium and for what. Democracy?
In my browsers, the WWW2 site shows newest posts first. The Vanilla site shows oldest first. is that deliberate, to allow the choice? Or is there a way to change what's shown first on either site?
The air-brushing continues apace.
On Corbyn...the gift that just keeps on giving. The bellend cannot stop talking about his pet interests.
On Roger.....note to pbERs, do not take him at face value. He is an articulate lefty polemicist who posts with a confident verve dosed with a naughty degree of mischief.
Still think TM will tell him to do one, though.
Good to see the few that lost last time out being looked after, especially Esther given the circumstances.
Jim and Sir Lynton were merely the advertisers.
I'm not criticising her decision at all. The GE came as a shock, many people may not be ready and they shouldn't stand if they aren't, and its only mild embarrassment if they responded with platitudes and then have to back down. But you decided to assume partisan motivation was behind it, and that was what was absurd.
And I don't really understand why you went partisan in the first place, getting superior about it. Why would someone be more sympathetic if she were conservative?
Sometimes non-tories really do all they can to make people believe ridiculous Tory whinges about being treated unfairly.
WalesGovernanceCntre @WalesGovernance 53m53 minutes ago
For all you eager poll fans, the @WalesGovernance @ITVWales @YouGov poll will be out tonight at 6pm.
Locally I can report Clive Lewis has his work cut out but will probably be saved on the basis of a split Green/Con challenge. The green ceiling will save him I think and there just aren't enough Tories in the city, worth a punt on the Greens hitting 25% though.
Norman Lamb is going to struggle to hold Norfolk North. Everything else is nailed on blue in Norfolk.
She said: "Bring it on. We've been prepared a long time for this- what Yeovil needs is an MP who can stick up for the constituency."
Surprised to see that my former MP Bob Russell is standing this time around. Not that age should be a barrier, but at 71 I'd assumed he wouldn't. Slightly worried for Will who's done a good job in the last two years, but then again he beat Sir Bob last time and there's Kipper votes to hoover up. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000644
Up to now, I've been fairly agnostic about whether we should allow PMs the right to call a GE unilaterally and while the FTPA has its value, it was never (despite what some on her claimed) designed wholly as a bulwark against an election. In essence, it passed a degree of control to MPs and given everyone apparently decided they wanted an election, the FTPA was never going to block that.
Indeed, IF the Conservatives win 435 seats on June 8th, they will have the power to call an election whenever they wish irrespective of what the Opposition wants.
I cannot believe that anything can be added to a wine's quality by using fertiliser made from cow dung buried in a cowhorn for a long time and then stirred into water in a figure-of-eight. That's one of the key elements in the "anthroposophical" "biodynamic" bunkum. I suspect that like the "scientologists" in Hollywood they have an arm that is tasked with recruiting rich people, and that in their case the production and marketing of "biodynamic" wines is part of its operation, because that helps them sort the gullible out from the aware. I'd be very interested to hear your view.
Mortgage affordability checks etc - being an MP is not such a certain job... being a PPC for 2020 isn't something the lenders might look at but say if she is taking a 20k pay cut then perhaps the house isn't affordable. I don't know her exact circumstances. Do you ?
Is the donate button still around? I use the vanilla site as I like to read the comments in chronological order and can't work out how to do that on the main site.
Don't we usually get an ICM poll on a Monday these days as well?
I'm in Clive Lewis territory....Because of Brexit our Tuscan dream is but a distant memory. I've got a red and green board out, for the locals admittedly, but they can stay for the nationals. I'm voting Green for both, but out of loyalty for Labour thought I'd put a board for them.
Pleasingly there is not a single Tory board out in the Golden Triangle as far as a I can see...
This is a heavily partisan political forum in case you haven't noticed. If you want objective non-biased commentary, you won't find it here.
Yeovil was an LD seat for many years until David Laws lost it in 2015. It's the kind of seat which, if those who are overstating the LD fightback are to be believed, is the sort that could revert back to the LD flow. The unexpected withdrawal of the candidate makes that less likely and therefore more likely the Conservatives will hold the seat.
That's good news in the eyes of most Conservatives irrespective of what they may think about the incumbent MP.
He could stand again as an independent - for the Pillocks with Principles Party.
His most long-lasting impact on British politics will be to ensure that no-one is dumb enough to say they will re-submit themselves to the voters if policy x y or z is/isn't implemented.
In all seriousness, given most people expected the next GE to be in 2020, it's no surprise a lot of constituency parties of all stripes hadn't made any provision for an immediate GE.
The obvious place to start is the 2015 candidate if he or she is willing and as you say there's an element of name recognition.
There was also the issue of boundary changes which was in the process of consultation which could have forced change on a number of MPs.
The fact that Aberavon is 1-5 tells you all you need to know about how terrible the expectations are for Labour in Wales. Normally that is a 1-500 shot.
The young are very spotty when they fledge. And good at hiding, so you might not see much of them. And the parents go very skulking during the summer, while they moult their red breast, so they may seem to have gone invisible for a while. But they will be around.
I cannot believe Corbyn - he is just unelectable and how any labour MP can stand in support of him amazes me - I hope the voter decapitation of labour is swift and total
I always though Roger likes mischief
Best wishes to lovely Tuscany
The guy has a very high opinion of himself. He thinks he swung Braintree and Falmouth and Camborne for Labour in 1997 by visiting the seats during the election. He concludes one chapter with this gem:
The last two Labour governments lost office after the prime ministers mishandled the dates of the elections. Never let us hear again any nonsense that it is the Left that makes Labour unelectable.
If you see someone walking a white fluffy little rat sized dog that howls at everything (the worst behaved dog in the Triangle) called Trotsky...I'm your man.
This is such a lovely part of the world.....great pubs, vibrant, students, friendly, green, quiet, liberal and open minded, and easy access to culture. There is a wonderful Paul Nash exhibition at the Sainsbury's Centre. OK it's not quite Florence, but it really is an idyllic part of England. Comparable in many levels to Oxford, and in some, even better..
Pillock.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOMiHW8_5ck
If it's a north American type it'll be bigger, but somewhat retiring.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HikQgBXVn8
The editor of the Standard?
Overall, therefore, I don't take too much notice of whether the wine is biodynamic, there are very good wines made which are, and very good wines which are not.
JohnO...you are a very naughty man.