Greetings infidels, I thought I might pop back on for the duration of the GE, hope everyone is in tip top shape. I'll be doing a few constituency bets this time around, see if I can catch a few mid single figure to one Tory gains. Locally I can report Clive Lewis has his work cut out but will probably be saved on the basis of a split Green/Con challenge. The green ceiling will save him I think and there just aren't enough Tories in the city, worth a punt on the Greens hitting 25% though. Norman Lamb is going to struggle to hold Norfolk North. Everything else is nailed on blue in Norfolk.
Dyed woolie
I'm in Clive Lewis territory....Because of Brexit our Tuscan dream is but a distant memory. I've got a red and green board out, for the locals admittedly, but they can stay for the nationals. I'm voting Green for both, but out of loyalty for Labour thought I'd put a board for them.
Pleasingly there is not a single Tory board out in the Golden Triangle as far as a I can see...
Hey hey Tyson, I live in the triangle too, near the best little pub in Norwich. Labour boards here strong, as are green. A solitary Lib Dem and no Tory or kippers but the Tory vote will be strong in the burbs away from the Uni.
What is the best little pub in Norwich? There are so many nice pubs around here, and most allow dogs.
If you see someone walking a white fluffy little rat sized dog that howls at everything (the worst behaved dog in the Triangle) called Trotsky...I'm your man.
This is such a lovely part of the world.....great pubs, vibrant, students, friendly, green, quiet, liberal and open minded, and easy access to culture. There is a wonderful Paul Nash exhibition at the Sainsbury's Centre. OK it's not quite Florence, but it really is an idyllic part of England. Comparable in many levels to Oxford, and in some, even better..
Corbyn is not fighting the general election. His focus is on the next Labour leadership election. You need to see all his pronouncements in that light.
Poor Esther if she gets and wins this seat she will have to go looking again in 2022 as the seat is being axed under boundary review
Suspect the seat reduction will be canned.
I am certain it will if the majority is 80+
It needs to go ahead as the boundaries will be way out of date, but the whole exercise becomes a lot more politically difficult if there's so many MPs to move around.
Cameron was able to promise a seat to every sitting MP who wanted one; May will struggle to be able to do the same without an awful lot of retirements.
I'm currently reading Dennis Skinner's autobiography Sailing Close to the Wind
The guy has a very high opinion of himself. He thinks he swung Braintree and Falmouth and Camborne for Labour in 1997 by visiting the seats during the election. He concludes one chapter with this gem:
The last two Labour governments lost office after the prime ministers mishandled the dates of the elections. Never let us hear again any nonsense that it is the Left that makes Labour unelectable.
Is he standing again?
It is in my top ten "Seats where the result was more leave than one might expect based on party loyalties"
Hull East Walsall North Doncaster North Ashfield Burnley Redcar Barnsley East Bolsover Stoke-on-Trent North
Greetings infidels, I thought I might pop back on for the duration of the GE, hope everyone is in tip top shape. I'll be doing a few constituency bets this time around, see if I can catch a few mid single figure to one Tory gains. Locally I can report Clive Lewis has his work cut out but will probably be saved on the basis of a split Green/Con challenge. The green ceiling will save him I think and there just aren't enough Tories in the city, worth a punt on the Greens hitting 25% though. Norman Lamb is going to struggle to hold Norfolk North. Everything else is nailed on blue in Norfolk.
Dyed woolie
I'm in Clive Lewis territory....Because of Brexit our Tuscan dream is but a distant memory. I've got a red and green board out, for the locals admittedly, but they can stay for the nationals. I'm voting Green for both, but out of loyalty for Labour thought I'd put a board for them.
Pleasingly there is not a single Tory board out in the Golden Triangle as far as a I can see...
Hey hey Tyson, I live in the triangle too, near the best little pub in Norwich. Labour boards here strong, as are green. A solitary Lib Dem and no Tory or kippers but the Tory vote will be strong in the burbs away from the Uni.
Is there any correlation at all between the number of boards up for each party and the number of votes they get? I live in Bucks, which is fairly safe Tory territory, but hardly ever see any Conservative boards. The only ones I've seen this time are for a Lib-Dem and an independent.
Very little. Was just comparing notes with Tyson really. There are always hundreds of red and green boards in the triangle.
In a marginal like Norwich South, why are the Greens standing against a pro-Remain Labour MP? Seems a bit silly, given all the talk of a progressive alliance to limit the number of Leavers elected.
Greetings infidels, I thought I might pop back on for the duration of the GE, hope everyone is in tip top shape. I'll be doing a few constituency bets this time around, see if I can catch a few mid single figure to one Tory gains. Locally I can report Clive Lewis has his work cut out but will probably be saved on the basis of a split Green/Con challenge. The green ceiling will save him I think and there just aren't enough Tories in the city, worth a punt on the Greens hitting 25% though. Norman Lamb is going to struggle to hold Norfolk North. Everything else is nailed on blue in Norfolk.
Dyed woolie
I'm in Clive Lewis territory....Because of Brexit our Tuscan dream is but a distant memory. I've got a red and green board out, for the locals admittedly, but they can stay for the nationals. I'm voting Green for both, but out of loyalty for Labour thought I'd put a board for them.
Pleasingly there is not a single Tory board out in the Golden Triangle as far as a I can see...
Hey hey Tyson, I live in the triangle too, near the best little pub in Norwich. Labour boards here strong, as are green. A solitary Lib Dem and no Tory or kippers but the Tory vote will be strong in the burbs away from the Uni.
Is there any correlation at all between the number of boards up for each party and the number of votes they get? I live in Bucks, which is fairly safe Tory territory, but hardly ever see any Conservative boards. The only ones I've seen this time are for a Lib-Dem and an independent.
Very little. Was just comparing notes with Tyson really. There are always hundreds of red and green boards in the triangle.
In a marginal like Norwich South, why are the Greens standing against a pro-Remain Labour MP? Seems a bit silly, given all the talk of a progressive alliance to limit the number of Leavers elected.
It's one of 4 seats nationally they stand a chance in
The French use a system only slightly less stupid than our own SV, which is neither FPTP nor fully preferential.
In the presidential election, the idea is to ensure that the executive president is elected by a majority. Not a majority after preference votes have been reallocated, but a majority of votes when people get the chance to vote for A or someone who's not A. This can only be guaranteed to work when the number of choices other than A is limited to one. It's about legitimacy: it's a sales technique. I think the system they use for the national assembly, where anyone who gets votes from more than 12.5% of the electorate in the first round makes it through to the second, and then it's FPTP, is stranger.
I'm currently reading Dennis Skinner's autobiography Sailing Close to the Wind
The guy has a very high opinion of himself. He thinks he swung Braintree and Falmouth and Camborne for Labour in 1997 by visiting the seats during the election. He concludes one chapter with this gem:
The last two Labour governments lost office after the prime ministers mishandled the dates of the elections. Never let us hear again any nonsense that it is the Left that makes Labour unelectable.
Is he standing again?
I haven't heard that he's standing down. If he is re-elected, then I'd think there's a decent chance of a by election in Bolsover in the next five years.
Greetings infidels, I thought I might pop back on for the duration of the GE, hope everyone is in tip top shape. I'll be doing a few constituency bets this time around, see if I can catch a few mid single figure to one Tory gains. Locally I can report Clive Lewis has his work cut out but will probably be saved on the basis of a split Green/Con challenge. The green ceiling will save him I think and there just aren't enough Tories in the city, worth a punt on the Greens hitting 25% though. Norman Lamb is going to struggle to hold Norfolk North. Everything else is nailed on blue in Norfolk.
Dyed woolie
I'm in Clive Lewis territory....Because of Brexit our Tuscan dream is but a distant memory. I've got a red and green board out, for the locals admittedly, but they can stay for the nationals. I'm voting Green for both, but out of loyalty for Labour thought I'd put a board for them.
Pleasingly there is not a single Tory board out in the Golden Triangle as far as a I can see...
Hey hey Tyson, I live in the triangle too, near the best little pub in Norwich. Labour boards here strong, as are green. A solitary Lib Dem and no Tory or kippers but the Tory vote will be strong in the burbs away from the Uni.
Is there any correlation at all between the number of boards up for each party and the number of votes they get? I live in Bucks, which is fairly safe Tory territory, but hardly ever see any Conservative boards. The only ones I've seen this time are for a Lib-Dem and an independent.
Very little. Was just comparing notes with Tyson really. There are always hundreds of red and green boards in the triangle.
In a marginal like Norwich South, why are the Greens standing against a pro-Remain Labour MP? Seems a bit silly, given all the talk of a progressive alliance to limit the number of Leavers elected.
It's one of 4 seats nationally they stand a chance in
One of the things that made me think that there was always a possibility of an early GE was that Theresa May never did rule it out. Her wording was very clearly leaving open that space. She said that she didn't want one and had no plans to call one. Given the amount of work and phone calls I've had over the last week and how CCHQ and regional offices were caught on the hop, I've no doubt that's true: no on-the-ground preparation had been made beyond that which was already being done for 2020.
She changed her mind; she didn't lie.
Indeed, David, and I'm more than happy to acknowledge there was no falsehood on the Prime Minister's part but you have to agree there had been, on a number of occasions, a fairly unambiguous tone there was no immediate prospect of a GE.
Yes, I'd certainly agree with that. As you say, it was the tone rather than the words which primarily gave the impression.
Poor Esther if she gets and wins this seat she will have to go looking again in 2022 as the seat is being axed under boundary review
Suspect the seat reduction will be canned.
I am certain it will if the majority is 80+
Why? It's already the law and would need an Act of Parliament to reverse it.
With the that majority no problem
At Big John.....as a lefty, I have to hope that since May is the one and only show in town, she doesn't drive the UK into being a harsh, divided country. I'm just back in the UK and seeing so many homeless young people out on the streets in Norwich makes me feel sad.
In terms of the stars everything has aligned in May's favour....she is as powerful politician as we've had in my lifetime.
Some thoughts on the other home of mine, Scotland. Polling suggests dramatic times for the Tories and loads of gains but I don't see it. They ought to win the borders seats, but then again they always ought to win D and G and never seem to. Got a feeling after those three then it's a case of loads or nowt. They will either surge, or more likely, be second a lot. I mean Scotland has moved decisive.y away since 92, and even then they had, what, 11 of 79?
There's a lot of talk about unionist tactical voting, which, if it materialises, should help them out. I am sceptical though. Considering the Tory landslide coming, I would have thought the remaining slabbers and slidders would be more reluctant to vote Tory this time.
It would be interesting to hear from any Slab or Slid supporters on this forum on whether they are considering tactical voting for Scon? Do we even have any?
Jim Messina, the American Democratic political consultant who spent two years as President Obama’s deputy chief of staff, has been hired by the Conservatives to work on their election campaign, Bloomberg’s Tim Ross reports. Messina also worked for the Tories on their 2015 campaign. Ross says:
[Messina’s] appointment brings together the key figures in the team behind Cameron’s success in 2015. May has also hired Lynton Crosby, the political strategist, Mark Textor, the pollster and Crosby’s business partner, and the digital media specialists Craig Elder and Tom Edmonds, all of whom worked for the Cameron campaign.
Does Labour have an equivalent team yet? If not, is it planning on putting one together?
Greetings infidels, I thought I might pop back on for the duration of the GE, hope everyone is in tip top shape. I'll be doing a few constituency bets this time around, see if I can catch a few mid single figure to one Tory gains. Locally I can report Clive Lewis has his work cut out but will probably be saved on the basis of a split Green/Con challenge. The green ceiling will save him I think and there just aren't enough Tories in the city, worth a punt on the Greens hitting 25% though. Norman Lamb is going to struggle to hold Norfolk North. Everything else is nailed on blue in Norfolk.
Dyed woolie
I'm in Clive Lewis territory....Because of Brexit our Tuscan dream is but a distant memory. I've got a red and green board out, for the locals admittedly, but they can stay for the nationals. I'm voting Green for both, but out of loyalty for Labour thought I'd put a board for them.
Pleasingly there is not a single Tory board out in the Golden Triangle as far as a I can see...
Hey hey Tyson, I live in the triangle too, near the best little pub in Norwich. Labour boards here strong, as are green. A solitary Lib Dem and no Tory or kippers but the Tory vote will be strong in the burbs away from the Uni.
Is there any correlation at all between the number of boards up for each party and the number of votes they get? I live in Bucks, which is fairly safe Tory territory, but hardly ever see any Conservative boards. The only ones I've seen this time are for a Lib-Dem and an independent.
Very little. Was just comparing notes with Tyson really. There are always hundreds of red and green boards in the triangle.
In a marginal like Norwich South, why are the Greens standing against a pro-Remain Labour MP? Seems a bit silly, given all the talk of a progressive alliance to limit the number of Leavers elected.
It's one of 4 seats nationally they stand a chance in
I haven't heard that he's standing down. If he is re-elected, then I'd think there's a decent chance of a by election in Bolsover in the next five years.
Labour policy announcements are as much use as those from the Loony Party (aka the Greens). They may as well have some fun on the off-chance they spook the Tories into doing something useful, or stupid.
Maybe we'll all get an owl after all. *crosses fingers*
Some thoughts on the other home of mine, Scotland. Polling suggests dramatic times for the Tories and loads of gains but I don't see it. They ought to win the borders seats, but then again they always ought to win D and G and never seem to. Got a feeling after those three then it's a case of loads or nowt. They will either surge, or more likely, be second a lot. I mean Scotland has moved decisive.y away since 92, and even then they had, what, 11 of 79?
There's a lot of talk about unionist tactical voting, which, if it materialises, should help them out. I am sceptical though. Considering the Tory landslide coming, I would have thought the remaining slabbers and slidders would be more reluctant to vote Tory this time.
It would be interesting to hear from any Slab or Slid supporters on this forum on whether they are considering tactical voting for Scon? Do we even have any?
Jim Messina, the American Democratic political consultant who spent two years as President Obama’s deputy chief of staff, has been hired by the Conservatives to work on their election campaign, Bloomberg’s Tim Ross reports. Messina also worked for the Tories on their 2015 campaign. Ross says:
[Messina’s] appointment brings together the key figures in the team behind Cameron’s success in 2015. May has also hired Lynton Crosby, the political strategist, Mark Textor, the pollster and Crosby’s business partner, and the digital media specialists Craig Elder and Tom Edmonds, all of whom worked for the Cameron campaign.
Does Labour have an equivalent team yet? If not, is it planning on putting one together?
I'm currently reading Dennis Skinner's autobiography Sailing Close to the Wind
The guy has a very high opinion of himself. He thinks he swung Braintree and Falmouth and Camborne for Labour in 1997 by visiting the seats during the election. He concludes one chapter with this gem:
The last two Labour governments lost office after the prime ministers mishandled the dates of the elections. Never let us hear again any nonsense that it is the Left that makes Labour unelectable.
Is he standing again?
It is in my top ten "Seats where the result was more leave than one might expect based on party loyalties"
Hull East Walsall North Doncaster North Ashfield Burnley Redcar Barnsley East Bolsover Stoke-on-Trent North
Skinner voted to Leave - not sure about the other 9 MPs on your list. I suspect he has enough of a personal vote to survive, but I've backed the Tories to win Ashfield.
So far I've backed Welsh Labour in two seats, Rhondda and Aberavon (1-5 and 4-6 respectively). The fact that Aberavon is 1-5 tells you all you need to know about how terrible the expectations are for Labour in Wales. Normally that is a 1-500 shot.
I too am hoping that for Labour it is Cwm Rhondda rather than Go Rhondda.
Yes, I've gone for Labour to win Rhondda too. I simply can't conceive of it ever being otherwise. (btw Pulpstar has the odds for these two seats the wrong way round.)
Some thoughts on the other home of mine, Scotland. Polling suggests dramatic times for the Tories and loads of gains but I don't see it. They ought to win the borders seats, but then again they always ought to win D and G and never seem to. Got a feeling after those three then it's a case of loads or nowt. They will either surge, or more likely, be second a lot. I mean Scotland has moved decisive.y away since 92, and even then they had, what, 11 of 79?
There is a clear move away from the SNP in the north east fishing communities
I'm currently reading Dennis Skinner's autobiography Sailing Close to the Wind
I wonder if he has ever actually sailed close to the wind? It can be a tricky business often requiring abrupt changes of direction in order to make any progress
Do they count to election expenses limits? Or as Purdah hasn't started yet can they be pulled and reprinted without affecting the limits?
There is a limit to what can be spent outside the immediate election period too but while I'm not an expert, I wouldn't have thought that these would count if they've never been distributed.
Greetings infidels, I thought I might pop back on for the duration of the GE, hope everyone is in tip top shape. I'll be doing a few constituency bets this time around, see if I can catch a few mid single figure to one Tory gains. Locally I can report Clive Lewis has his work cut out but will probably be saved on the basis of a split Green/Con challenge. The green ceiling will save him I think and there just aren't enough Tories in the city, worth a punt on the Greens hitting 25% though. Norman Lamb is going to struggle to hold Norfolk North. Everything else is nailed on blue in Norfolk.
Dyed woolie
I'm in Clive Lewis territory....Because of Brexit our Tuscan dream is but a distant memory. I've got a red and green board out, for the locals admittedly, but they can stay for the nationals. I'm voting Green for both, but out of loyalty for Labour thought I'd put a board for them.
Pleasingly there is not a single Tory board out in the Golden Triangle as far as a I can see...
Hey hey Tyson, I live in the triangle too, near the best little pub in Norwich. Labour boards here strong, as are green. A solitary Lib Dem and no Tory or kippers but the Tory vote will be strong in the burbs away from the Uni.
Is there any correlation at all between the number of boards up for each party and the number of votes they get? I live in Bucks, which is fairly safe Tory territory, but hardly ever see any Conservative boards. The only ones I've seen this time are for a Lib-Dem and an independent.
Very little. Was just comparing notes with Tyson really. There are always hundreds of red and green boards in the triangle.
In a marginal like Norwich South, why are the Greens standing against a pro-Remain Labour MP? Seems a bit silly, given all the talk of a progressive alliance to limit the number of Leavers elected.
It's one of 4 seats nationally they stand a chance in
I know but under FPTP they're only likely to retain one MP. The Greens keep making unrealistic projections about 'the next election'; this one was a factor of 12 wrong
There's an aspect of realpolitik to this. They understate the need to change the voting system to more proportional and in the short term to limit the likelihood of the UK jumping off an economic cliff.
For any bird people...we have just discovered (to our great delight) a nesting Robin's nest in our garden. Is there anything we can do to help? This morning the female seems very agitated and is leaving the nest alot. The eggs haven't hatched yet.
Back in 2012 a robin built its nest inside a three-quarters full bag of compost I had stashed underneath my gardening table. Had to build a Heath Robinsonesque fortress to stop my terriers getting at it. Happy to report that all the hatchlings survived .
Other than that, nothing to report other than my constituency will continue its march from Lab-Tory marginal to safe Tory seat.
I'm currently reading Dennis Skinner's autobiography Sailing Close to the Wind
The guy has a very high opinion of himself. He thinks he swung Braintree and Falmouth and Camborne for Labour in 1997 by visiting the seats during the election. He concludes one chapter with this gem:
The last two Labour governments lost office after the prime ministers mishandled the dates of the elections. Never let us hear again any nonsense that it is the Left that makes Labour unelectable.
Is he standing again?
It is in my top ten "Seats where the result was more leave than one might expect based on party loyalties"
Hull East Walsall North Doncaster North Ashfield Burnley Redcar Barnsley East Bolsover Stoke-on-Trent North
Skinner voted to Leave - not sure about the other 9 MPs on your list. I suspect he has enough of a personal vote to survive, but I've backed the Tories to win Ashfield.
I have done so too (7-2), also 14-1 Tories Redcar looked worth a small punt to me (And small punts these are with Paddy/Betfair stake limits).
Burnley might well be a Lib Dem gain despite the leaveriness - only a small swing needed there.
I'm sitting here thinking 'what's the target 210 Montgomeryshire moment' for 2017. I conclude that it's Ed Militant or Yvette. One of them is going down my corns tell me.
Poor Esther if she gets and wins this seat she will have to go looking again in 2022 as the seat is being axed under boundary review
Suspect the seat reduction will be canned.
That's hard to justify when so much work has been done already. But you may be right.
The current plans for the reduction are a shambles – a geographical nonsense. One good consequence of this election is that they will be shelved, preferably binned. Better the devil you know.
Poor Esther if she gets and wins this seat she will have to go looking again in 2022 as the seat is being axed under boundary review
Suspect the seat reduction will be canned.
I am certain it will if the majority is 80+
Why? It's already the law and would need an Act of Parliament to reverse it.
Not in practice. MPs could just vote down the new boundaries, as in the last parliament. But yes, if they want reformed boundaries then it's 600 MPs or an amendment to the Act.
Jim Messina, the American Democratic political consultant who spent two years as President Obama’s deputy chief of staff, has been hired by the Conservatives to work on their election campaign, Bloomberg’s Tim Ross reports. Messina also worked for the Tories on their 2015 campaign. Ross says:
[Messina’s] appointment brings together the key figures in the team behind Cameron’s success in 2015. May has also hired Lynton Crosby, the political strategist, Mark Textor, the pollster and Crosby’s business partner, and the digital media specialists Craig Elder and Tom Edmonds, all of whom worked for the Cameron campaign.
Does Labour have an equivalent team yet? If not, is it planning on putting one together?
Maybe they'll vote to put a motion before Conference to allow them to hire an election consultant, subject to a majority of PLPs and 2/3 of the NEC agreeing...
Some thoughts on the other home of mine, Scotland. Polling suggests dramatic times for the Tories and loads of gains but I don't see it. They ought to win the borders seats, but then again they always ought to win D and G and never seem to. Got a feeling after those three then it's a case of loads or nowt. They will either surge, or more likely, be second a lot. I mean Scotland has moved decisive.y away since 92, and even then they had, what, 11 of 79?
There is a clear move away from the SNP in the north east fishing communities
Tbf, I had a feeling about Banff last time. It's my first seat to look at after the borders, but I just don't see it. Not this time and if not this time I think never. I dunno, it's very hard to see a Blue surge in Scotland, it's counter intuitive.
Some thoughts on the other home of mine, Scotland. Polling suggests dramatic times for the Tories and loads of gains but I don't see it. They ought to win the borders seats, but then again they always ought to win D and G and never seem to. Got a feeling after those three then it's a case of loads or nowt. They will either surge, or more likely, be second a lot. I mean Scotland has moved decisive.y away since 92, and even then they had, what, 11 of 79?
There is a clear move away from the SNP in the north east fishing communities
Yes, my Scottish friend who had just returned from Edinburgh mentioned people were a bit fed up with "Wee Jimmy". Of course they are still north of 40%, but the only way is down from the 50% last time to be honest.
I'm currently reading Dennis Skinner's autobiography Sailing Close to the Wind
The guy has a very high opinion of himself. He thinks he swung Braintree and Falmouth and Camborne for Labour in 1997 by visiting the seats during the election. He concludes one chapter with this gem:
The last two Labour governments lost office after the prime ministers mishandled the dates of the elections. Never let us hear again any nonsense that it is the Left that makes Labour unelectable.
Is he standing again?
It is in my top ten "Seats where the result was more leave than one might expect based on party loyalties"
Hull East Walsall North Doncaster North Ashfield Burnley Redcar Barnsley East Bolsover Stoke-on-Trent North
Skinner voted to Leave - not sure about the other 9 MPs on your list. I suspect he has enough of a personal vote to survive, but I've backed the Tories to win Ashfield.
I have done so too (7-2), also 14-1 Tories Redcar looked worth a small punt to me (And small punts these are with Paddy/Betfair stake limits).
Burnley might well be a Lib Dem gain despite the leaveriness - only a small swing needed there.
So far I've backed Welsh Labour in two seats, Rhondda and Aberavon (1-5 and 4-6 respectively). The fact that Aberavon is 1-5 tells you all you need to know about how terrible the expectations are for Labour in Wales. Normally that is a 1-500 shot.
I too am hoping that for Labour it is Cwm Rhondda rather than Go Rhondda.
So far I've backed Welsh Labour in two seats, Rhondda and Aberavon (1-5 and 4-6 respectively). The fact that Aberavon is 1-5 tells you all you need to know about how terrible the expectations are for Labour in Wales. Normally that is a 1-500 shot.
I too am hoping that for Labour it is Cwm Rhondda rather than Go Rhondda.
Is there any correlation at all between the number of boards up for each party and the number of votes they get? I live in Bucks, which is fairly safe Tory territory, but hardly ever see any Conservative boards. The only ones I've seen this time are for a Lib-Dem and an independent.
I think that's true of Tories generally. I live in a very Conservative area (in a swing seat) and NEVER see any Conservative posters or boards. "Shy Tories" indeed.
I'd be interested to know why so many of our regular posters are mournful that France looks set to pick a moderate centrist president who isn't fascist or batshit mental.
It's a shame that we aren't going to get the amusement of Le Pen vs Melanchon! Macron is the living embodiment of trendy metrosexual right-on chic. A gay Tony Blair with better suits. France has some real problems. He ain't gonna sort them. But, like Trudeau in Canada, the MSM will love him while his country continues to circle the pan. France basically needs a Maggie. Why is it is so seemingly impossible for them to elect a sensible centre-right non-loony non-shiney teeth candidate?
As I wonder through France's fifth largest city and see a vibrant cafe society with more museums art galleries statues and street art than you'd see anywhere in England outside London and an attractive healthy cultured population where the average waiter knows more about film and philosophy than 95% of the English
.......and compare it to Leeds where an obese population waddle around believing fine dining is an evening at Wetherspoons and culture is an hour with Jeremy Kyle I wonder where the French went wrong
A deeply metropolitan viewpoint. As a wealthy, lefty, educated, urbanite intellectual I understand completely why Sartre and Rousseau, Depardieu and Auteuil, Chanel and Yves Saint-Laurent tickle your G-spot. Ca plane pour moi. But across Europe those on the wrong side of the tracks are beyond fed up. Drive east 40 minutes from the Champs-Elysees and look at the world those French live in. Is their crying need for more museums? Effing street art? Film and philosophy? FFS! You seem to espouse a very 'qu'ils mangent de la brioche' attitude to their lives. And I also think you are being sneeringly and ignorantly condescending of UK urban life. They're not all fat chavs north of Watford. I've visited alot of UK towns and cities in my new role since coming back from the Hague. I've been really impressed with how very pleasant many British places are - places that I had a really crappy mental image of before I actually went there. I'd include in that York, Birmingham, Nottingham, Newcastle, Leeds, and Manchester. Your comments about Leeds say way more about you than about Leeds.
Thank you. Roger is a snob who is usually wrong about everything. On that basis, I'm happy to take his endorsement of Leeds.
I have to say I am relatively positive about this policy. I think the details of it are a bit unworkable, but I think it will prove relatively popular among the population at large. Assuming that this is in addition to annual leave entitlements and not instead of. Sure, business owners are going to cry that bank holidays damage the economy (and there is truth in that), but it is not a clear cut situation, and it's too nuanced an argument to sway the electorate. The ad there is targeted at youths I think, cats and social media etc, get a bit of buzz around the policy. Yet this could be sold quite well in some of their northern heartlands - let's make St George's Day a national holiday should go down well. It also has a good unionist aspect to it, let's all celebrate each other's national day.
In all, in terms of optics: pro union, pro workers, pro patriotism. Anti business perhaps. One of the first positive steps from the labour campaign so far IMO
Poor Esther if she gets and wins this seat she will have to go looking again in 2022 as the seat is being axed under boundary review
Suspect the seat reduction will be canned.
I am certain it will if the majority is 80+
Why? It's already the law and would need an Act of Parliament to reverse it.
With the that majority no problem
At Big John.....as a lefty, I have to hope that since May is the one and only show in town, she doesn't drive the UK into being a harsh, divided country. I'm just back in the UK and seeing so many homeless young people out on the streets in Norwich makes me feel sad.
In terms of the stars everything has aligned in May's favour....she is as powerful politician as we've had in my lifetime.
I am convinced she will do an EFTA style deal that is acceptable to the vast majority and at the same time preserve the Union. She is not taking us over the edge.
I am also certain she will take us into a much more caring society addressing the many social issues including mental health
It is also good policy to get on producing her manifesto while the leader of the labour party makes a complete fool of himself. Why interfere in labour's grief.
The French use a system only slightly less stupid than our own SV, which is neither FPTP nor fully preferential.
In the presidential election, the idea is to ensure that the executive president is elected by a majority. Not a majority after preference votes have been reallocated, but a majority of votes when people get the chance to vote for A or someone who's not A. This can only be guaranteed to work when the number of choices other than A is limited to one. It's about legitimacy: it's a sales technique. I think the system they use for the national assembly, where anyone who gets votes from more than 12.5% of the electorate in the first round makes it through to the second, and then it's FPTP, is stranger.
The French system is still essentially a preferential one; the votes are still reallocated but it's just that they're reallocated through a forced-choice (technically, supporters of the two candidates that go through could switch or withdraw as well, so it's not fully preferential like AV but it's near enough). In principle, it's almost exactly the same.
Greetings infidels, I thought I might pop back on for the duration of the GE, hope everyone is in tip top shape. I'll be doing a few constituency bets this time around, see if I can catch a few mid single figure to one Tory gains. Locally I can report Clive Lewis has his work cut out but will probably be saved on the basis of a split Green/Con challenge. The green ceiling will save him I think and there just aren't enough Tories in the city, worth a punt on the Greens hitting 25% though. Norman Lamb is going to struggle to hold Norfolk North. Everything else is nailed on blue in Norfolk.
Dyed woolie
I'm in Clive Lewis territory....Because of Brexit our Tuscan dream is but a distant memory. I've got a red and green board out, for the locals admittedly, but they can stay for the nationals. I'm voting Green for both, but out of loyalty for Labour thought I'd put a board for them.
Pleasingly there is not a single Tory board out in the Golden Triangle as far as a I can see...
Hey hey Tyson, I live in the triangle too, near the best little pub in Norwich. Labour boards here strong, as are green. A solitary Lib Dem and no Tory or kippers but the Tory vote will be strong in the burbs away from the Uni.
What is the best little pub in Norwich? There are so many nice pubs around here, and most allow dogs.
If you see someone walking a white fluffy little rat sized dog that howls at everything (the worst behaved dog in the Triangle) called Trotsky...I'm your man.
This is such a lovely part of the world.....great pubs, vibrant, students, friendly, green, quiet, liberal and open minded, and easy access to culture. There is a wonderful Paul Nash exhibition at the Sainsbury's Centre. OK it's not quite Florence, but it really is an idyllic part of England. Comparable in many levels to Oxford, and in some, even better..
A good summer in England (not sure about Scotland or Wales as it's a long time since I've been to either) is hard to beat. Unfortunately the chances of a good summer seem to be about one in three.
I've been to Florence a couple of times but both times were in August and it was far too hot for me to really enjoy it: I much prefer Siena.
Will Jeremy’s endorsement by the Communist party be well received by Momentum types?
Communists always endorsed Labour in the 50’s/60’s. Daily Worker/Morning Star (not sure when the change happened) used to say say something like ‘Vote Communist wherever you can, otherwise Labour’. Or words to that effect.
He could stand again as an independent - for the Pillocks with Principles Party.
His most long-lasting impact on British politics will be to ensure that no-one is dumb enough to say they will re-submit themselves to the voters if policy x y or z is/isn't implemented.
It seems, from comments by Richmond Park Conservatives, that he's standing for them (well, subject to overcoming a local councillor and someone else).
I'm very surprised May has allowed him back. He inflicted unnecessary damage to her with a self-aggrandising flounce-out which allowed the LDs to get some momentum.
It's also bizarre in terms of his platform. He called the by-election on Heathrow - but he'd be standing for a party whose policy is Heathrow expansion. Does he flounce out again if it goes ahead? Does he say it doesn't matter any more?
And the constituency rejected him on the basis of saying, "No, it's not primarily about Heathrow (although we do oppose it)... we want to express our anger over Brexit and your fulsome support of it in a constituency which was overwhelmingly Remain". Has he changed his mind on Brexit (doubt it)? Or is he just raising a dainty middle finger to the Remainers in Richmond Park?
Not saying he won't be competitive - he will because he still has plenty of fan-boys (and more particularly girls) there. But it's just bizarre and shameless.
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Two hours late and counting!
Can anyone remember the days when Ladbrokes was an excellent, fully functional bookie - a true leader in its field? Sadly it's no longer the case. I thought everything was supposed to be great after the merger with Corals ... it actually seems to be a whole lot worse and that includes the website, or as of this morning, non-website!
For any bird people...we have just discovered (to our great delight) a nesting Robin's nest in our garden. Is there anything we can do to help? This morning the female seems very agitated and is leaving the nest alot. The eggs haven't hatched yet.
Robins are very partial to meal worms (your local pet shop/garden centre should have them). Otherwise, they are pretty good at looking after themselves.
The young are very spotty when they fledge. And good at hiding, so you might not see much of them. And the parents go very skulking during the summer, while they moult their red breast, so they may seem to have gone invisible for a while. But they will be around.
Echo that about meal worms. My wife puts out hand fulls morning and evening under the tree in which our garden robins nest and they actually sit there waiting for her. Robins can also be quite tame and unafraid of humans, ours will sometimes follow Herself around when she is gardening. They also sing nicely, currently starting at about 05:15.
So all in all nice birds to attract to your garden.
Poor Esther if she gets and wins this seat she will have to go looking again in 2022 as the seat is being axed under boundary review
Suspect the seat reduction will be canned.
I am certain it will if the majority is 80+
Why? It's already the law and would need an Act of Parliament to reverse it.
Not in practice. MPs could just vote down the new boundaries, as in the last parliament. But yes, if they want reformed boundaries then it's 600 MPs or an amendment to the Act.
The Act needs amending anyway, in view of the now out-of-sync hard-wired calendar for future reviews. At that point I am sure there will be pressure to review the mathematically tighter criteria, which most people recognise are not working out well.
The choice the Tories will have is whether to vote through the 2018 review unchanged (on 600), and then make whatever changes they decide for the future, or whether to put the 2018 review aside (as was done in 2013) and start again for the 2021/22 GE with whatever new rules and parliament size they decide. Also worth noting that all of this also goes through the Lords (which is where the setting aside of the last review began, as an amendment).
Poor Esther if she gets and wins this seat she will have to go looking again in 2022 as the seat is being axed under boundary review
Suspect the seat reduction will be canned.
I am certain it will if the majority is 80+
Why? It's already the law and would need an Act of Parliament to reverse it.
With the that majority no problem
At Big John.....as a lefty, I have to hope that since May is the one and only show in town, she doesn't drive the UK into being a harsh, divided country. I'm just back in the UK and seeing so many homeless young people out on the streets in Norwich makes me feel sad.
In terms of the stars everything has aligned in May's favour....she is as powerful politician as we've had in my lifetime.
I am convinced she will do an EFTA style deal that is acceptable to the vast majority and at the same time preserve the Union. She is not taking us over the edge.
I am also certain she will take us into a much more caring society addressing the many social issues including mental health
It is also good policy to get on producing her manifesto while the leader of the labour party makes a complete fool of himself. Why interfere in labour's grief.
In fairness the Conservative manifesto requires a lot more thought than the Labour one. It will be used to hold a government to account as opposed to some cheap laughs. I suspect that every hostage to fortune will be agonised over, not least by Hammond!
I have to say I am relatively positive about this policy. I think the details of it are a bit unworkable, but I think it will prove relatively popular among the population at large. Assuming that this is in addition to annual leave entitlements and not instead of. Sure, business owners are going to cry that bank holidays damage the economy (and there is truth in that), but it is not a clear cut situation, and it's too nuanced an argument to sway the electorate. The ad there is targeted at youths I think, cats and social media etc, get a bit of buzz around the policy. Yet this could be sold quite well in some of their northern heartlands - let's make St George's Day a national holiday should go down well. It also has a good unionist aspect to it, let's all celebrate each other's national day.
In all, in terms of optics: pro union, pro workers, pro patriotism. Anti business perhaps. One of the first positive steps from the labour campaign so far IMO
As repeatedly said, wrong time of year. June, July, September, October would be good months for new BHs.
Also are they going to be on the actual day or closest Monday?
Also if you showed me just the policy and asked me to guess I'd have said it was a Ukip wheeze. Naked UK component nationalism, and in-your-face Christianity.
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Two hours late and counting!
Can anyone remember the days when Ladbrokes was an excellent, fully functional bookie - a true leader in its field? Sadly it's no longer the case. I thought everything was supposed to be great after the merger with Corals ... it actually seems to be a whole lot worse and that includes the website, or as of this morning, non-website!
Worse than that, at about midnight they were saying they'd be up n running by 7 am.
The French use a system only slightly less stupid than our own SV, which is neither FPTP nor fully preferential.
In the presidential election, the idea is to ensure that the executive president is elected by a majority. Not a majority after preference votes have been reallocated, but a majority of votes when people get the chance to vote for A or someone who's not A. This can only be guaranteed to work when the number of choices other than A is limited to one. It's about legitimacy: it's a sales technique. I think the system they use for the national assembly, where anyone who gets votes from more than 12.5% of the electorate in the first round makes it through to the second, and then it's FPTP, is stranger.
The French system is still essentially a preferential one; the votes are still reallocated but it's just that they're reallocated through a forced-choice (technically, supporters of the two candidates that go through could switch or withdraw as well, so it's not fully preferential like AV but it's near enough). In principle, it's almost exactly the same.
Except for the voters' foreknowledge of the final choice, and the loss of the opportunity for the third placed candidate to perform the miracle of coming through the middle on the back of transfers from fourth and lower placed eliminations.
Poor Esther if she gets and wins this seat she will have to go looking again in 2022 as the seat is being axed under boundary review
Suspect the seat reduction will be canned.
I am certain it will if the majority is 80+
Why? It's already the law and would need an Act of Parliament to reverse it.
With the that majority no problem
At Big John.....as a lefty, I have to hope that since May is the one and only show in town, she doesn't drive the UK into being a harsh, divided country. I'm just back in the UK and seeing so many homeless young people out on the streets in Norwich makes me feel sad.
In terms of the stars everything has aligned in May's favour....she is as powerful politician as we've had in my lifetime.
I am convinced she will do an EFTA style deal that is acceptable to the vast majority and at the same time preserve the Union. She is not taking us over the edge.
I am also certain she will take us into a much more caring society addressing the many social issues including mental health
It is also good policy to get on producing her manifesto while the leader of the labour party makes a complete fool of himself. Why interfere in labour's grief.
She may do a transition deal until 2022 but after that we will be fully out and given Canada took 7 years to negotiate a free trade deal the most we may get is a few bilateral agreements. Getting an EFTA type deal would probably depend on a future Labour government taking the UK back into the EEA
"WE ARE CURRENTLY UPGRADING OUR CORE SERVICES TO BRING SOME GREAT IMPROVEMENTS TO YOUR LADBROKES EXPERIENCE.
As part of the upgrade, all products and account services will be unavailable for the duration of the maintenance.
We expect our services to be back by 10:00 AM BST
Thank you for your patience."
Two hours late and counting!
Can anyone remember the days when Ladbrokes was an excellent, fully functional bookie - a true leader in its field? Sadly it's no longer the case. I thought everything was supposed to be great after the merger with Corals ... it actually seems to be a whole lot worse and that includes the website, or as of this morning, non-website!
That you can't deeplink to a specific odds page is infuriating to me. I presume it is to make it harder for people to webscrape them but it really pisses me off, especially on mobile.
Some thoughts on the other home of mine, Scotland. Polling suggests dramatic times for the Tories and loads of gains but I don't see it. They ought to win the borders seats, but then again they always ought to win D and G and never seem to. Got a feeling after those three then it's a case of loads or nowt. They will either surge, or more likely, be second a lot. I mean Scotland has moved decisive.y away since 92, and even then they had, what, 11 of 79?
There is a clear move away from the SNP in the north east fishing communities
Tbf, I had a feeling about Banff last time. It's my first seat to look at after the borders, but I just don't see it. Not this time and if not this time I think never. I dunno, it's very hard to see a Blue surge in Scotland, it's counter intuitive.
A lot of my family come from the NE fishing community and are pro Brexit pro the Union. Also in RAF Lossiemouth the government has awarded a 400 million pound contract. That work if Independence came along would go south of the border along with a lot of other defence contracts
Will Jeremy’s endorsement by the Communist party be well received by Momentum types?
Communists always endorsed Labour in the 50’s/60’s. Daily Worker/Morning Star (not sure when the change happened) used to say say something like ‘Vote Communist wherever you can, otherwise Labour’. Or words to that effect.
An interesting factoid Mr OKC, cheers. – If it’s not too rude, how many GE’s have you seen?
"WE ARE CURRENTLY UPGRADING OUR CORE SERVICES TO BRING SOME GREAT IMPROVEMENTS TO YOUR LADBROKES EXPERIENCE.
As part of the upgrade, all products and account services will be unavailable for the duration of the maintenance.
We expect our services to be back by 10:00 AM BST
Thank you for your patience."
Two hours late and counting!
Can anyone remember the days when Ladbrokes was an excellent, fully functional bookie - a true leader in its field? Sadly it's no longer the case. I thought everything was supposed to be great after the merger with Corals ... it actually seems to be a whole lot worse and that includes the website, or as of this morning, non-website!
That you can't deeplink to a specific odds page is infuriating to me. I presume it is to make it harder for people to webscrape them but it really pisses me off, especially on mobile.
Bet365 ONLY works on my mobile, broken on my browsers.
I took the view, pre-referendum, that if we had voted Remain that we had to go into it properly - full integration, cooperation and harmonisation. It's the only way to make the thing work.
If we had voted Remain that wouldn't have been an option. Cameron ruled out 'ever closer union' and said the UK would never join the Euro.
Yeah, and?
If we had voted Remain then we should have pushed for fully in.
I have to say I am relatively positive about this policy. I think the details of it are a bit unworkable, but I think it will prove relatively popular among the population at large. Assuming that this is in addition to annual leave entitlements and not instead of. Sure, business owners are going to cry that bank holidays damage the economy (and there is truth in that), but it is not a clear cut situation, and it's too nuanced an argument to sway the electorate. The ad there is targeted at youths I think, cats and social media etc, get a bit of buzz around the policy. Yet this could be sold quite well in some of their northern heartlands - let's make St George's Day a national holiday should go down well. It also has a good unionist aspect to it, let's all celebrate each other's national day.
In all, in terms of optics: pro union, pro workers, pro patriotism. Anti business perhaps. One of the first positive steps from the labour campaign so far IMO
It's utterly daft on so many levels.
Forget the economics of it - Labour clearly haven't even bothered trying to work that out.
Nothing in it for the retired (you know, the ones who actually vote) or the self employed or for that matter the unemployed. Or for people on zero hours contracts (yes I know Corbyn wants to abolish those. Not sure that will go down as well as he thinks it will either)
Three extra bank holidays in March/April? Madness.
Are they really going to celebrate St George's day in Glasgow? Or for that matter St Paddy's day in the Shankill Road?
And who said bank holidays were relaxing, anyway??
The worst of it is the voters know there is a lot of difficult consequential stuff for government to do right now. Brexit, the deficit, social care, the NHS, the refugee crisis, the middle east, Korea... And Corbyn is wibbling on about bank holidays. He really is thick.
Poor Esther if she gets and wins this seat she will have to go looking again in 2022 as the seat is being axed under boundary review
Suspect the seat reduction will be canned.
I am certain it will if the majority is 80+
Why? It's already the law and would need an Act of Parliament to reverse it.
With the that majority no problem
At Big John.....as a lefty, I have to hope that since May is the one and only show in town, she doesn't drive the UK into being a harsh, divided country. I'm just back in the UK and seeing so many homeless young people out on the streets in Norwich makes me feel sad.
In terms of the stars everything has aligned in May's favour....she is as powerful politician as we've had in my lifetime.
I am convinced she will do an EFTA style deal that is acceptable to the vast majority and at the same time preserve the Union. She is not taking us over the edge.
I am also certain she will take us into a much more caring society addressing the many social issues including mental health
It is also good policy to get on producing her manifesto while the leader of the labour party makes a complete fool of himself. Why interfere in labour's grief.
In fairness the Conservative manifesto requires a lot more thought than the Labour one. It will be used to hold a government to account as opposed to some cheap laughs. I suspect that every hostage to fortune will be agonised over, not least by Hammond!
Well quite. I'd be annoyed if a large majority doesn't result in making a start on the too-difficult list and some major tax simplification.
Given the outcry about the self employed NI change in the budget, Hammond will want as few promises as possible in the manifesto.
Very interesting vote breakdowns from last night's French election which run contrary to the narrative.
'Youthful' Macron finished third among working age voters. It was the pensioners that saw him over the line.
Fillon won pensioners, Melenchon won young voters, Macron's vote was more spread as indeed was Le Pen's
MLP first with 35-59, with men, white collar, blue collar, public employee, private employee, with households with an income of below €2000 pcm.
The level of support for Macron among the under 60s is miniscule even compared to our standards.
Macron did better with under 60s than Fillon. I would agree the typical Le Pen voters was similar to the typical Leave or Trump voter ie a white male without a college degree though the elderly tended to go more for Fillon rather than Le Pen. That suggests the Trump Leave coalition included not only Le Pen voters but many Fillon voters too and so Le Pen was not able to reach quite as broad a grouping though she will try and appeal to them in the runoff
Some thoughts on the other home of mine, Scotland. Polling suggests dramatic times for the Tories and loads of gains but I don't see it. They ought to win the borders seats, but then again they always ought to win D and G and never seem to. Got a feeling after those three then it's a case of loads or nowt. They will either surge, or more likely, be second a lot. I mean Scotland has moved decisive.y away since 92, and even then they had, what, 11 of 79?
There is a clear move away from the SNP in the north east fishing communities
Tbf, I had a feeling about Banff last time. It's my first seat to look at after the borders, but I just don't see it. Not this time and if not this time I think never. I dunno, it's very hard to see a Blue surge in Scotland, it's counter intuitive.
A lot of my family come from the NE fishing community and are pro Brexit pro the Union. Also in RAF Lossiemouth the government has awarded a 400 million pound contract. That work if Independence came along would go south of the border along with a lot of other defence contracts
Time will tell as always, I just get the feeling the pencils will be hovering more than usual amongst the new breed of Scons. I can see close but no cigar being a key phrase.
If Le Pen gets around 50% in France excluding the Paris metropolitan area it would be very serious I think. Not sure whether that's likely if she's on 40% overall. Perhaps not.
I have to say I am relatively positive about this policy. I think the details of it are a bit unworkable, but I think it will prove relatively popular among the population at large. Assuming that this is in addition to annual leave entitlements and not instead of. Sure, business owners are going to cry that bank holidays damage the economy (and there is truth in that), but it is not a clear cut situation, and it's too nuanced an argument to sway the electorate. The ad there is targeted at youths I think, cats and social media etc, get a bit of buzz around the policy. Yet this could be sold quite well in some of their northern heartlands - let's make St George's Day a national holiday should go down well. It also has a good unionist aspect to it, let's all celebrate each other's national day.
In all, in terms of optics: pro union, pro workers, pro patriotism. Anti business perhaps. One of the first positive steps from the labour campaign so far IMO
It's utterly daft on so many levels.
Forget the economics of it - Labour clearly haven't even bothered trying to work that out.
Nothing in it for the retired (you know, the ones who actually vote) or the self employed or for that matter the unemployed. Or for people on zero hours contracts (yes I know Corbyn wants to abolish those. Not sure that will go down as well as he thinks it will either)
Whilst I agree the bank holiday policy is daft, I take strong issue with the suggestion that a policy is bad if it doesn't benefit the retired. That demographic has been showered with multiple handouts and bribes in recent years. The working taxpayers who pay for this largesse should be the main targets of any assistance.
In all fairness, not many of us expected the Prime Minister to call a snap GE seeing as she had herself refused to contemplate it on any number of occasions.
Daisy's sole mistake was to take what the Prime Minister said as being a statement of truth and fact on which the country could rely whereas we now know it wasn't and it can't and we can all draw our conclusions from that.
It's come at just the wrong time for Daisy and she has decided she can't be a Parliamentary candidate - it's nice to see the sympathy and I'm sure if she were a Conservative candidate, we'd all be feeling the love.
It's good news for Marcus Fysh this time.
One of the things that made me think that there was always a possibility of an early GE was that Theresa May never did rule it out. Her wording was very clearly leaving open that space. She said that she didn't want one and had no plans to call one. Given the amount of work and phone calls I've had over the last week and how CCHQ and regional offices were caught on the hop, I've no doubt that's true: no on-the-ground preparation had been made beyond that which was already being done for 2020.
She changed her mind; she didn't lie.
There were few German tanks on the Polish border in September 1938 when Hitler declared he had no further territorial demands in Europe. When he invaded Poland on 1st September he had obviously 'changed his mind'! Personally I hope the Opposition press hard the line 'Theresa May has a compulsive aversion to telling the truth'. If that phrase keeps being used in interviews it might register. As it is we re faced with a choice between an imbecile and a lying bitch.
Poor Esther if she gets and wins this seat she will have to go looking again in 2022 as the seat is being axed under boundary review
Suspect the seat reduction will be canned.
I am certain it will if the majority is 80+
Why? It's already the law and would need an Act of Parliament to reverse it.
With the that majority no problem
At Big John.....as a lefty, I have to hope that since May is the one and only show in town, she doesn't drive the UK into being a harsh, divided country. I'm just back in the UK and seeing so many homeless young people out on the streets in Norwich makes me feel sad.
In terms of the stars everything has aligned in May's favour....she is as powerful politician as we've had in my lifetime.
Greetings! Norwich is a delightful spot. Fox jr had a great time there at Uni. The coast is lovely, but the city has much more of a liberal tolerant vibe. Have a pint of Wherry for me.
"WE ARE CURRENTLY UPGRADING OUR CORE SERVICES TO BRING SOME GREAT IMPROVEMENTS TO YOUR LADBROKES EXPERIENCE.
As part of the upgrade, all products and account services will be unavailable for the duration of the maintenance.
We expect our services to be back by 10:00 AM BST
Thank you for your patience."
Two hours late and counting!
Can anyone remember the days when Ladbrokes was an excellent, fully functional bookie - a true leader in its field? Sadly it's no longer the case. I thought everything was supposed to be great after the merger with Corals ... it actually seems to be a whole lot worse and that includes the website, or as of this morning, non-website!
Whilst I agree the bank holiday policy is daft, I take strong issue with the suggestion that a policy is bad if it doesn't benefit the retired. That demographic has been showered with multiple handouts and bribes in recent years. The working taxpayers who pay for this largesse should be the main targets of any assistance.
Oh, I don't disagree. My point is simply that it won't win any votes.
I have to say I am relatively positive about this policy. I think the details of it are a bit unworkable, but I think it will prove relatively popular among the population at large. Assuming that this is in addition to annual leave entitlements and not instead of. Sure, business owners are going to cry that bank holidays damage the economy (and there is truth in that), but it is not a clear cut situation, and it's too nuanced an argument to sway the electorate. The ad there is targeted at youths I think, cats and social media etc, get a bit of buzz around the policy. Yet this could be sold quite well in some of their northern heartlands - let's make St George's Day a national holiday should go down well. It also has a good unionist aspect to it, let's all celebrate each other's national day.
In all, in terms of optics: pro union, pro workers, pro patriotism. Anti business perhaps. One of the first positive steps from the labour campaign so far IMO
It's utterly daft on so many levels.
Forget the economics of it - Labour clearly haven't even bothered trying to work that out.
Nothing in it for the retired (you know, the ones who actually vote) or the self employed or for that matter the unemployed. Or for people on zero hours contracts (yes I know Corbyn wants to abolish those. Not sure that will go down as well as he thinks it will either)
Whilst I agree the bank holiday policy is daft, I take strong issue with the suggestion that a policy is bad if it doesn't benefit the retired. That demographic has been showered with multiple handouts and bribes in recent years. The working taxpayers who pay for this largesse should be the main targets of any assistance.
Sure, but sadly there is a difference between what is morally fair, and what gets you elected.
Poor Esther if she gets and wins this seat she will have to go looking again in 2022 as the seat is being axed under boundary review
Suspect the seat reduction will be canned.
I am certain it will if the majority is 80+
Why? It's already the law and would need an Act of Parliament to reverse it.
With the that majority no problem
At Big John.....as a lefty, I have to hope that since May is the one and only show in town, she doesn't drive the UK into being a harsh, divided country. I'm just back in the UK and seeing so many homeless young people out on the streets in Norwich makes me feel sad.
In terms of the stars everything has aligned in May's favour....she is as powerful politician as we've had in my lifetime.
Greetings! Norwich is a delightful spot. Fox jr had a great time there at Uni. The coast is lovely, but the city has much more of a liberal tolerant vibe. Have a pint of Wherry for me.
The Unthank Arms was his local, not bad at all.
I know the Unthank well, a nice pub, there's also the York and the Rose round there. Norwich is wonderful. It's the thing that keeps me from moving North if the border. Well, that and my partner
Poor Esther if she gets and wins this seat she will have to go looking again in 2022 as the seat is being axed under boundary review
Suspect the seat reduction will be canned.
I am certain it will if the majority is 80+
Why? It's already the law and would need an Act of Parliament to reverse it.
With the that majority no problem
At Big John.....as a lefty, I have to hope that since May is the one and only show in town, she doesn't drive the UK into being a harsh, divided country. I'm just back in the UK and seeing so many homeless young people out on the streets in Norwich makes me feel sad.
In terms of the stars everything has aligned in May's favour....she is as powerful politician as we've had in my lifetime.
I am convinced she will do an EFTA style deal that is acceptable to the vast majority and at the same time preserve the Union. She is not taking us over the edge.
I am also certain she will take us into a much more caring society addressing the many social issues including mental health
It is also good policy to get on producing her manifesto while the leader of the labour party makes a complete fool of himself. Why interfere in labour's grief.
In fairness the Conservative manifesto requires a lot more thought than the Labour one. It will be used to hold a government to account as opposed to some cheap laughs. I suspect that every hostage to fortune will be agonised over, not least by Hammond!
And that is why we need two serious politicians in May and Hammond
Forget the economics of it - Labour clearly haven't even bothered trying to work that out.
Nothing in it for the retired (you know, the ones who actually vote) or the self employed or for that matter the unemployed. Or for people on zero hours contracts (yes I know Corbyn wants to abolish those. Not sure that will go down as well as he thinks it will either)
Three extra bank holidays in March/April? Madness.
Are they really going to celebrate St George's day in Glasgow? Or for that matter St Paddy's day in the Shankill Road?
And who said bank holidays were relaxing, anyway??
The worst of it is the voters know there is a lot of difficult consequential stuff for government to do right now. Brexit, the deficit, social care, the NHS, the refugee crisis, the middle east, Korea... And Corbyn is wibbling on about bank holidays. He really is thick.
There's actually nothing in it for employed people either, as bank holidays typically count towards holiday entitlement in the small print of the employment contract. Indeed, they are somewhat worse than normal holiday entitlement as you typically have to take the actual day rather than being able to choose.
What it actually means is losing a day off your summer holiday in Florida in exchange for the opportunity to spend St David's Day (1 March) freezing your nuts off on your allotment (I assume that's what Jez wants).
Comments
Try saying that with a Chinese accent.
Cameron was able to promise a seat to every sitting MP who wanted one; May will struggle to be able to do the same without an awful lot of retirements.
Hull East
Walsall North
Doncaster North
Ashfield
Burnley
Redcar
Barnsley East
Bolsover
Stoke-on-Trent North
Assuming
Con 42.5% remain
Lab 66.5% remain
LD 73.5% remain
UKIP 4.5% remain
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/856458420463030272
Sheffield Central for the last ?
In terms of the stars everything has aligned in May's favour....she is as powerful politician as we've had in my lifetime.
It would be interesting to hear from any Slab or Slid supporters on this forum on whether they are considering tactical voting for Scon? Do we even have any?
Maybe we'll all get an owl after all. *crosses fingers*
(btw Pulpstar has the odds for these two seats the wrong way round.)
'Youthful' Macron finished third among working age voters. It was the pensioners that saw him over the line.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/18/green-party-general-election-12-seats-england
There's an aspect of realpolitik to this. They understate the need to change the voting system to more proportional and in the short term to limit the likelihood of the UK jumping off an economic cliff.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/856458422518243328
Back in 2012 a robin built its nest inside a three-quarters full bag of compost I had stashed underneath my gardening table. Had to build a Heath Robinsonesque fortress to stop my terriers getting at it. Happy to report that all the hatchlings survived
Other than that, nothing to report other than my constituency will continue its march from Lab-Tory marginal to safe Tory seat.
Burnley might well be a Lib Dem gain despite the leaveriness - only a small swing needed there.
@FelicityHannah: RT @rachelmsavage: These UKIP announcements are racist, misogynist hate-fuel masking as concern for liberal values and women's rights. https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/856451736831242240
@IanDunt: Going to go ahead and interpret this as mandatory vaginal exams for Muslim pupils whenever they come back from holi… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/856461804821770241
I dunno, it's very hard to see a Blue surge in Scotland, it's counter intuitive.
Help Me Rhondda?
From what I can see, Gilbert and Sullivan had his sort best, by talking about a man who praises:
" with enthusiastic tone,
All centuries but this, and every country but his own;"
In all, in terms of optics: pro union, pro workers, pro patriotism. Anti business perhaps. One of the first positive steps from the labour campaign so far IMO
I am also certain she will take us into a much more caring society addressing the many social issues including mental health
It is also good policy to get on producing her manifesto while the leader of the labour party makes a complete fool of himself. Why interfere in labour's grief.
I've been to Florence a couple of times but both times were in August and it was far too hot for me to really enjoy it: I much prefer Siena.
I'm very surprised May has allowed him back. He inflicted unnecessary damage to her with a self-aggrandising flounce-out which allowed the LDs to get some momentum.
It's also bizarre in terms of his platform. He called the by-election on Heathrow - but he'd be standing for a party whose policy is Heathrow expansion. Does he flounce out again if it goes ahead? Does he say it doesn't matter any more?
And the constituency rejected him on the basis of saying, "No, it's not primarily about Heathrow (although we do oppose it)... we want to express our anger over Brexit and your fulsome support of it in a constituency which was overwhelmingly Remain". Has he changed his mind on Brexit (doubt it)? Or is he just raising a dainty middle finger to the Remainers in Richmond Park?
Not saying he won't be competitive - he will because he still has plenty of fan-boys (and more particularly girls) there. But it's just bizarre and shameless.
"WE ARE CURRENTLY UPGRADING OUR CORE SERVICES TO BRING SOME GREAT IMPROVEMENTS TO YOUR LADBROKES EXPERIENCE.
As part of the upgrade, all products and account services will be unavailable for the duration of the maintenance.
We expect our services to be back by 10:00 AM BST
Thank you for your patience."
Two hours late and counting!
Can anyone remember the days when Ladbrokes was an excellent, fully functional bookie - a true leader in its field? Sadly it's no longer the case.
I thought everything was supposed to be great after the merger with Corals ... it actually seems to be a whole lot worse and that includes the website, or as of this morning, non-website!
So all in all nice birds to attract to your garden.
The choice the Tories will have is whether to vote through the 2018 review unchanged (on 600), and then make whatever changes they decide for the future, or whether to put the 2018 review aside (as was done in 2013) and start again for the 2021/22 GE with whatever new rules and parliament size they decide. Also worth noting that all of this also goes through the Lords (which is where the setting aside of the last review began, as an amendment).
Also are they going to be on the actual day or closest Monday?
Also if you showed me just the policy and asked me to guess I'd have said it was a Ukip wheeze. Naked UK component nationalism, and in-your-face Christianity.
But it's a 10 minute rule bill gag, not a policy.
The level of support for Macron among the under 60s is miniscule even compared to our standards.
If we had voted Remain then we should have pushed for fully in.
But we didn't so we won't.
Forget the economics of it - Labour clearly haven't even bothered trying to work that out.
Nothing in it for the retired (you know, the ones who actually vote) or the self employed or for that matter the unemployed. Or for people on zero hours contracts (yes I know Corbyn wants to abolish those. Not sure that will go down as well as he thinks it will either)
Three extra bank holidays in March/April? Madness.
Are they really going to celebrate St George's day in Glasgow? Or for that matter St Paddy's day in the Shankill Road?
And who said bank holidays were relaxing, anyway??
The worst of it is the voters know there is a lot of difficult consequential stuff for government to do right now. Brexit, the deficit, social care, the NHS, the refugee crisis, the middle east, Korea... And Corbyn is wibbling on about bank holidays. He really is thick.
Given the outcry about the self employed NI change in the budget, Hammond will want as few promises as possible in the manifesto.
The Unthank Arms was his local, not bad at all.
Still no constituency markets though.
Norwich is wonderful. It's the thing that keeps me from moving North if the border. Well, that and my partner
What it actually means is losing a day off your summer holiday in Florida in exchange for the opportunity to spend St David's Day (1 March) freezing your nuts off on your allotment (I assume that's what Jez wants).