Actually based on the map above Le Pen won about 47 departements to Macron's 42 so if France had an electoral college system like the US and no runoff like the US she may well have won the electoral college as Trump did even if Macron, like Hillary, won the popular vote
Last night you were desperately trying to prove that in actual vote terms Le Pen was winning. It turned out the exit polls were spot on.
Now you are trying the stupid US electoral college tactics. France is a more enlightened country.
If Le Pen had won ALL the departments, she would still lose. France has the added insurance policy of the second vote. The chances of Le Pen or FN winning any department with 50% of the votes is very slim. That is why they have only 2 MLAs. This time they might get 10 maybe.
You are going on the runoff, the US has no runoff.The fact is France had the same trend as the US election and the EU referendum, Leave, Trump and Le Pen led in terms of council areas, states or departements but Hillary and Macron won the popular vote and Remain came close in the popular vote by winning by a large margin in the biggest cities
Wake up ! Smell the coffee. Macron has won decisively and the Sensible people will give your fascist candidate a hammering in two weeks time.
Le Pen still scored the highest FN voteshare in a presidential election and while Macron will win the runoff clearly about 2/5 of French voters will likely vote for Le Pen
@Patrick, why are you so obsessed with Macron's sexuality?
Metrosexual is, despite the name, more an issue of style than sexuality isn't it?
But Patrick used the word "gay".
My issue is with the dishonesty not the sexuality. I frankly couldn't give a shit if he blows goats. But I do think it is dishonest to present himself as something he isn't. Surely the French are liberal enough not to care too?
Has a French presidential candidate ever stood in front of the electorate and talked openly about his mistresses, instead of standing side by side with his wife? Non. There is no difference in what Macron may be doing.
I must admit, I'm staggered that the LDs are 2-1 to win Vauxhall. This is a seat where:
- the LDs did poorly in last year's GLA elections - they have next to no presence on the council - the activists are likely to be next door working for Simon Hughes - the LDs were fourth in 2015 - the LDs were close to 50% behind Labour
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Labour 38% Con 29% LD 18%
But a Tory b*tch is the current MP.
And this is why misogyny is so rife in the Labour Party.
I must admit, I'm staggered that the LDs are 2-1 to win Vauxhall. This is a seat where:
- the LDs did poorly in last year's GLA elections - they have next to no presence on the council - the activists are likely to be next door working for Simon Hughes - the LDs were fourth in 2015 - the LDs were close to 50% behind Labour
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
So how's this cohabitation thingy going to work for Macron, assuming he wins?
Is President Macron going to be as impotent as a eunuch?
Yes, so would Le Pen. The chances of serious reform coming from either is close to zero. It's probably why the leftist dirty tricks campaign focussed on Fillon, he was the only candidate who had any chance of actually making any changes to France.
Sometimes I think it's easier for those on the Left do make necessary changes than those on the Right. It was Gerhard Schroeder who liberalised the German labour market, and it was Tony Blair who introduced tuition fees in the UK.
He will need a backbone of steel to stand up to the vested interests in France: the unions, the professional bodies, the truckers, the farmers, etc. He also doesn't have any answer to the problems of France's large, non-integrated, Muslim minority. (Mind you, nor did any of the other candidates.)
Macron does at least realise that the biggest reason why France's economy has stagnated is because social charges on employees are too high, and the labour market is among the least flexible in the world. Hopefully, he can copy the playbook of Schroeder, Thatcher and Rajoy, and make the necessary changes. It will be good for France and good for the world if he does.
But it will be hard: very, very hard. (As it would have been for Fillon too.)
On the flipside it seems certain changes need to be made on the right. We may be about to see Red Ed's manifesto implemented by Theresa May after all. It's the whole Nixon goes to China thing.
France's Labour market is just one example of the drawbacks of the 'overprotection' approach in France - it's the same with their housing market for example. Tenant rights are far stronger than landlord ones (you can't even be evicted during the winter months, even if you don't pay the rent). So landlords are extremely reluctant to lease to you in the first place, and employers reluctant to hire new staff. Result, anyone with a CDI job and a place to stay is great, but anyone looking for an apartment or a job is screwed.
I must admit, I'm staggered that the LDs are 2-1 to win Vauxhall. This is a seat where:
- the LDs did poorly in last year's GLA elections - they have next to no presence on the council - the activists are likely to be next door working for Simon Hughes - the LDs were fourth in 2015 - the LDs were close to 50% behind Labour
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Actually based on the map above Le Pen won about 47 departements to Macron's 42 so if France had an electoral college system like the US and no runoff like the US she may well have won the electoral college as Trump did even if Macron, like Hillary, won the popular vote
Last night you were desperately trying to prove that in actual vote terms Le Pen was winning. It turned out the exit polls were spot on.
Now you are trying the stupid US electoral college tactics. France is a more enlightened country.
If Le Pen had won ALL the departments, she would still lose. France has the added insurance policy of the second vote. The chances of Le Pen or FN winning any department with 50% of the votes is very slim. That is why they have only 2 MLAs. This time they might get 10 maybe.
You are going on the runoff, the US has no runoff.The fact is France had the same trend as the US election and the EU referendum, Leave, Trump and Le Pen led in terms of council areas, states or departements but Hillary and Macron won the popular vote and Remain came close in the popular vote by winning by a large margin in the biggest cities
Wake up ! Smell the coffee. Macron has won decisively and the Sensible people will give your fascist candidate a hammering in two weeks time.
I must admit, I'm staggered that the LDs are 2-1 to win Vauxhall. This is a seat where:
- the LDs did poorly in last year's GLA elections - they have next to no presence on the council - the activists are likely to be next door working for Simon Hughes - the LDs were fourth in 2015 - the LDs were close to 50% behind Labour
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Labour 38% Con 29% LD 18%
Needless to say, the LDs don't set the odds and your summation isn't unrealistic. It was interesting to see Tim in Bermondsey yesterday morning for example supporting Simon Hughes.
I think you'll find the one group of people not talking up LD prospects is or are the LDs. We know how tough it will be in the way of the May tidal wave in Conservative held seats and there aren't that many Labour-held seats where we are a strong contender though with anecdotal evidence of the Labour vote in a state of collapse outside a few areas it may well be the Labour seats are the place to look for surprises and for money making opportunities.
I wouldn't advise a big bet on the Conservatives winning East Ham, however. I wouldn't even advise a small bet - I've not seen any prices, presumably it's 1-200 Labour.
Simon Hughes will not win Bermondsey and Hoey could be in trouble.
You think ?
I thought Evens in Bermondsey was a very fair price actually. I think the Lib Dem vote is up amongst remainers and the down amongst Labour voters (Though its not going to the Tories like the Labour leave vote) ? Was Simon Hughes a Brexit supporter or some such ?
The Labour MP voted Remain. So what are you voting against ? That Corbyn is his leader. Could we remind ourselves why Hughes lost ? Because his party went to bed with the enemy.
If the Labour candidate in Bermondsey was Hoey, then that would have been a different matter.
To answer @freetochoose's implied question, most recently I lost money on the Article 50 Supreme Court decision and on the Copeland by-election.
In fairness you wrote thread header recently outlining how you arrived at a probable outcome converted into % and therefore odds which was very interesting. Can't remember what it was or if it won but you'd clearly studied in closely.
I stick by my assertion that most punters bet on what they want to happen in football and politics.
Most, yes.
But punters like Pulpstar, Richard Nabavi, Alastair Meeks, and AndyJS are some of the most objective and least subject to confirmation bias as you'll ever find.
@Patrick, why are you so obsessed with Macron's sexuality?
Metrosexual is, despite the name, more an issue of style than sexuality isn't it?
But Patrick used the word "gay".
My issue is with the dishonesty not the sexuality. I frankly couldn't give a shit if he blows goats. But I do think it is dishonest to present himself as something he isn't. Surely the French are liberal enough not to care too?
Has a French presidential candidate ever stood in front of the electorate and talked openly about his mistresses, instead of standing side by side with his wife? Non. There is no difference in what Macron may be doing.
Macron is hardly running on a "Back to basics" platform though. He may well have a couple of lovers both male and female, his wife might well know and could even be involved
To answer @freetochoose's implied question, most recently I lost money on the Article 50 Supreme Court decision and on the Copeland by-election.
In fairness you wrote thread header recently outlining how you arrived at a probable outcome converted into % and therefore odds which was very interesting. Can't remember what it was or if it won but you'd clearly studied in closely.
I stick by my assertion that most punters bet on what they want to happen in football and politics.
Most, yes.
But punters like Pulpstar, Richard Nabavi, Alastair Meeks, and AndyJS are some of the most objective and least subject to confirmation bias as you'll ever find.
I have just spent the last 2 days telling people to pile on various Tory seats in Scotland.
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Labour 38% Con 29% LD 18%
This means you're predicting the Lib Dems will do worse in Vauxhall than they did in 2001, 2005 and 2010... I can't see it happening.
The Lib Dems are polling substantially worse than they were in 2001, 2005 and 2010.
And how does Labour's polling compare?
Better. At this stage of 2010 Labour was averaging about 30, they're now averaging about 25. So they've lost roughly 1/6th of their voters. The Lib Dems were averaging about 19, they're now averaging about 11 so have lost roughly 3/5ths of their voters.
Labour are struggling but not as much as the Lib Dems.
I must admit, I'm staggered that the LDs are 2-1 to win Vauxhall. This is a seat where:
- the LDs did poorly in last year's GLA elections - they have next to no presence on the council - the activists are likely to be next door working for Simon Hughes - the LDs were fourth in 2015 - the LDs were close to 50% behind Labour
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Labour 38% Con 29% LD 18%
Needless to say, the LDs don't set the odds and your summation isn't unrealistic. It was interesting to see Tim in Bermondsey yesterday morning for example supporting Simon Hughes.
I think you'll find the one group of people not talking up LD prospects is or are the LDs. We know how tough it will be in the way of the May tidal wave in Conservative held seats and there aren't that many Labour-held seats where we are a strong contender though with anecdotal evidence of the Labour vote in a state of collapse outside a few areas it may well be the Labour seats are the place to look for surprises and for money making opportunities.
I wouldn't advise a big bet on the Conservatives winning East Ham, however. I wouldn't even advise a small bet - I've not seen any prices, presumably it's 1-200 Labour.
Simon Hughes will not win Bermondsey and Hoey could be in trouble.
You think ?
I thought Evens in Bermondsey was a very fair price actually. I think the Lib Dem vote is up amongst remainers and the down amongst Labour voters (Though its not going to the Tories like the Labour leave vote) ? Was Simon Hughes a Brexit supporter or some such ?
The Labour MP voted Remain. So what are you voting against ? That Corbyn is his leader. Could we remind ourselves why Hughes lost ? Because his party went to bed with the enemy.
If the Labour candidate in Bermondsey was Hoey, then that would have been a different matter.
I think voters are a lot less tribal than activists. I don't think the Lib Dems would have suffered less had they coalesced with Labour in 2010.
I must admit, I'm staggered that the LDs are 2-1 to win Vauxhall. This is a seat where:
- the LDs did poorly in last year's GLA elections - they have next to no presence on the council - the activists are likely to be next door working for Simon Hughes - the LDs were fourth in 2015 - the LDs were close to 50% behind Labour
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Labour 38% Con 29% LD 18%
Needless to say, the LDs don't set the odds and your summation isn't unrealistic. It was interesting to see Tim in Bermondsey yesterday morning for example supporting Simon Hughes.
I think you'll find the one group of people not talking up LD prospects is or are the LDs. We know how tough it will be in the way of the May tidal wave in Conservative held seats and there aren't that many Labour-held seats where we are a strong contender though with anecdotal evidence of the Labour vote in a state of collapse outside a few areas it may well be the Labour seats are the place to look for surprises and for money making opportunities.
I wouldn't advise a big bet on the Conservatives winning East Ham, however. I wouldn't even advise a small bet - I've not seen any prices, presumably it's 1-200 Labour.
Simon Hughes will not win Bermondsey and Hoey could be in trouble.
You think ?
I thought Evens in Bermondsey was a very fair price actually. I think the Lib Dem vote is up amongst remainers and the down amongst Labour voters (Though its not going to the Tories like the Labour leave vote) ? Was Simon Hughes a Brexit supporter or some such ?
The Labour MP voted Remain. So what are you voting against ? That Corbyn is his leader. Could we remind ourselves why Hughes lost ? Because his party went to bed with the enemy.
If the Labour candidate in Bermondsey was Hoey, then that would have been a different matter.
The enemy is now Corbyn even for many Labour Party members
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Labour 38% Con 29% LD 18%
This means you're predicting the Lib Dems will do worse in Vauxhall than they did in 2001, 2005 and 2010... I can't see it happening.
The Lib Dems are polling substantially worse than they were in 2001, 2005 and 2010.
So every seat in the country follow the national trend ?
No but the complaint that "you're predicting the Lib Dems will do worse in Vauxhall than they did in 2001, 2005 and 2010" isnt much of an argument when that is precisely what the pollsters predict too.
@Patrick, why are you so obsessed with Macron's sexuality?
Metrosexual is, despite the name, more an issue of style than sexuality isn't it?
But Patrick used the word "gay".
My issue is with the dishonesty not the sexuality. I frankly couldn't give a shit if he blows goats. But I do think it is dishonest to present himself as something he isn't. Surely the French are liberal enough not to care too?
Has a French presidential candidate ever stood in front of the electorate and talked openly about his mistresses, instead of standing side by side with his wife? Non. There is no difference in what Macron may be doing.
Macron is hardly running on a "Back to basics" platform though. He may well have a couple of lovers both male and female, his wife might well know and could even be involved
I thought it was mandatory in France for every married man to have at least one mistress.
I must admit, I'm staggered that the LDs are 2-1 to win Vauxhall. This is a seat where:
- the LDs did poorly in last year's GLA elections - they have next to no presence on the council - the activists are likely to be next door working for Simon Hughes - the LDs were fourth in 2015 - the LDs were close to 50% behind Labour
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Labour 38% Con 29% LD 18%
Needless to say, the LDs don't set the odds and your summation isn't unrealistic. It was interesting to see Tim in Bermondsey yesterday morning for example supporting Simon Hughes.
I think you'll find the one group of people not talking up LD prospects is or are the LDs. We know how tough it will be in the way of the May tidal wave in Conservative held seats and there aren't that many Labour-held seats where we are a strong contender though with anecdotal evidence of the Labour vote in a state of collapse outside a few areas it may well be the Labour seats are the place to look for surprises and for money making opportunities.
I wouldn't advise a big bet on the Conservatives winning East Ham, however. I wouldn't even advise a small bet - I've not seen any prices, presumably it's 1-200 Labour.
Simon Hughes will not win Bermondsey and Hoey could be in trouble.
You think ?
I thought Evens in Bermondsey was a very fair price actually. I think the Lib Dem vote is up amongst remainers and the down amongst Labour voters (Though its not going to the Tories like the Labour leave vote) ? Was Simon Hughes a Brexit supporter or some such ?
The Labour MP voted Remain. So what are you voting against ? That Corbyn is his leader. Could we remind ourselves why Hughes lost ? Because his party went to bed with the enemy.
If the Labour candidate in Bermondsey was Hoey, then that would have been a different matter.
We can frame this as follows:
Lab Hold Bermondsey, Lib Dem Gain Vauxhall. I give £25 to charity, Lib Dem Gain Bermondsey, Lab Hold Vauxhall. You give £25 to charity ?
So how's this cohabitation thingy going to work for Macron, assuming he wins?
Is President Macron going to be as impotent as a eunuch?
Yes, so would Le Pen. The chances of serious reform coming from either is close to zero. It's probably why the leftist dirty tricks campaign focussed on Fillon, he was the only candidate who had any chance of actually making any changes to France.
Sometimes I think it's easier for those on the Left do make necessary changes than those on the Right. It was Gerhard Schroeder who liberalised the German labour market, and it was Tony Blair who introduced tuition fees in the UK.
He will need a backbone of steel to stand up to the vested interests in France: the unions, the professional bodies, the truckers, the farmers, etc. He also doesn't have any answer to the problems of France's large, non-integrated, Muslim minority. (Mind you, nor did any of the other candidates.)
Macron does at least realise that the biggest reason why France's economy has stagnated is because social charges on employees are too high, and the labour market is among the least flexible in the world. Hopefully, he can copy the playbook of Schroeder, Thatcher and Rajoy, and make the necessary changes. It will be good for France and good for the world if he does.
But it will be hard: very, very hard. (As it would have been for Fillon too.)
On the flipside it seems certain changes need to be made on the right. We may be about to see Red Ed's manifesto implemented by Theresa May after all. It's the whole Nixon goes to China thing.
France's Labour market is just one example of the drawbacks of the 'overprotection' approach in France - it's the same with their housing market for example. Tenant rights are far stronger than landlord ones (you can't even be evicted during the winter months, even if you don't pay the rent). So landlords are extremely reluctant to lease to you in the first place, and employers reluctant to hire new staff. Result, anyone with a CDI job and a place to stay is great, but anyone looking for an apartment or a job is screwed.
Theresa May may be stealing some of Labour's clothes, but she's still a Conservative.
Socially, she is pro-family, pro-Union, pro-monarchy, pro-Christian, and identifies with middle England, not North London Marxist intellectuals, and feels no sense of shame over this country's history or identity.
Economically, she will be fiscally conservative, and won't be increasing corporation tax, top rate tax, or reducing income tax allowances on higher rate earners, in other words spending and taxing more as a matter of conviction, but she may emphasise different priorities.
I stick by my assertion that most punters bet on what they want to happen in football and politics.
One difficulty is where what you want to happen coincides with good odds. I find that makes me second guess myself a bit.
That's where I really think more about my bets.
But then sometimes, you have to think, feck it, take the 20/1 on the Tories getting more than 9.5 MPs in Scotland.
Yes. As a Brexit-backing Tory I'm very aware that my recent run coincides with things going my way politically too. Though the most profitable set of results were the SNP's.
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Labour 38% Con 29% LD 18%
This means you're predicting the Lib Dems will do worse in Vauxhall than they did in 2001, 2005 and 2010... I can't see it happening.
The Lib Dems are polling substantially worse than they were in 2001, 2005 and 2010.
So every seat in the country follow the national trend ?
No but the complaint that "you're predicting the Lib Dems will do worse in Vauxhall than they did in 2001, 2005 and 2010" isnt much of an argument when that is precisely what the pollsters predict too.
What I was trying to say is that given the particular circumstances of this year's election, to predict the Lib Dems will poll below their historic level of support in the seat is brave, despite the national polls.
To defend Roger a little after being critical, I do find one of th most loathsome characteristics of our right wing press it Francophobia. They never miss a chance to bash the French. I can just about stomach that on foreign policy ut many of these hypocrites who detest the French social model probably spend much of their fr time there. Alt least Lord Lawson admits it.
I stick by my assertion that most punters bet on what they want to happen in football and politics.
One difficulty is where what you want to happen coincides with good odds. I find that makes me second guess myself a bit.
That's where I really think more about my bets.
But then sometimes, you have to think, feck it, take the 20/1 on the Tories getting more than 9.5 MPs in Scotland.
Yes. As a Brexit-backing Tory I'm very aware that my recent run coincides with things going my way politically too. Though the most profitable set of results were the SNP's.
Yup, I told Mike the other day, Alastair's tips on the SNP/Scotland paid for two TVs, a family holiday to America, a sofa, lots of gadgets and clothes.
I like Macron, just worried about how he can govern.
As for my fealty to Osborne, I'm Cameroon/Osbornite until the very end, it's like the mafia, the oath lasts until death.
We've merely gone to exile, like the Obi Wan and Yoda after Palpatine became Chancellor.
Or like when Michael was sent to Sicily in The Godfather.
We will be back.
Looking from the outside, it's fascinating.
Many of the Conservative MPs elected in 2010 and 2015 owe their place to Cameron and became candidates under his leadership and presumably supported him right up to the point when it became impractical to do so (about 3am on June 24th last year).
There will be those who couldn't win under Cameron but who could win under May and may feel more loyalty to her after the 8/6 landslide.
As history tells us, none of that matters and when May goes, whether voluntarily, via her own MPs or via the electorate, the new leader can airbrush history just as May has done to the Coalition years. The likes of Johnson and Javid will still be young enough to try for the leadership in 2022 or thereafter and I can't see May serving two full terms so yes, it's a question of biding your time and ensuring your chosen candidate develops the connections within the Parliamentary party.
Many of them realised, with horror on June 24th, that they'd spent years kissing the wrong arse.
Mixed with horror at the arses they would now have to kiss, no doubt.
Vauxhall looks like a unique case to me this election, but I can't see it going orange before Bermondsey no matter who the Labour MP is.
I think @rcs1000 decision to take the Lib Dems on at 10-1 there was "bold" mind. It will surely have the largest Lab -> Lib Dem swing of anywhere - but that swing needs to be bloody huge.
I stick by my assertion that most punters bet on what they want to happen in football and politics.
One difficulty is where what you want to happen coincides with good odds. I find that makes me second guess myself a bit.
That's where I really think more about my bets.
But then sometimes, you have to think, feck it, take the 20/1 on the Tories getting more than 9.5 MPs in Scotland.
I held off on Scottish constituency bets last time round because I doubted the generalisability of my own experience and I believe on here I posted that I expected Yes voters to flock back to Lab at 2015 as they had done in 2010 after voting SNP in 2007.
It meant my bets on SNP taking Glasgow seats were at 5/1 rather than 50/1
To defend Roger a little after being critical, I do find one of th most loathsome characteristics of our right wing press it Francophobia. They never miss a chance to bash the French. I can just about stomach that on foreign policy ut many of these hypocrites who detest the French social model probably spend much of their fr time there. Alt least Lord Lawson admits it.
Everyone should bash the French.
Dieu et mon droit as an Englishman to bash the nation of collaborators.
Theresa May may be stealing some of Labour's clothes, but she's still a Conservative.
Socially, she is pro-family, pro-Union, pro-monarchy, pro-Christian, and identifies with middle England, not North London Marxist intellectuals, and feels no sense of shame over this country's history or identity.
Economically, she will be fiscally conservative, and won't be increasing corporation tax, top rate tax, or reducing income tax allowances on higher rate earners, in other words spending and taxing more as a matter of conviction, but she may emphasise different priorities.
She certainly seems to have made a couple of manifesto choices that won't please the core vote: Foreign Aid protection and flexibility to raise taxes. I agree wholeheartedly that she should remove the Osborne rigidity on tax policy. Hammond needs to rebalance tax somewhat and to recognise the gig economy. May said she wants freedom but the instinct is still to keep taxes low. This probably means a further deepening of the progressive nature of our tax system. Bad for me personally but good for brand Tory with the working classes. On DfiD / Foreign Aid - this is a political move. And a move that has vanishingly few natural customers in our electorate. Maybe the optics would be 'nasty' if we cut it back and spent the money on social care instead. I don't really agree with this policy - but hey ho.
@Patrick, why are you so obsessed with Macron's sexuality?
Metrosexual is, despite the name, more an issue of style than sexuality isn't it?
But Patrick used the word "gay".
My issue is with the dishonesty not the sexuality. I frankly couldn't give a shit if he blows goats. But I do think it is dishonest to present himself as something he isn't. Surely the French are liberal enough not to care too?
The French media traditionally don't go into current politicians' sex lives, or lack thereof. It's one of the many ways (more serious, more balanced, more detailed) that their media is on average better than ours.
If your sex life is in any way a little non-standard, you run a risk in standing for Parliament in Britain - probably not an electoral risk as the voters don't much care, but a risk of media intrusion. As a result, we miss out on perfectly competent people not going for the top jobs because they think someone they love will be hurt (I can think of a prominent recent example). It's both their loss and our loss, because we deserve to have the widest possible choice.
Without wishing to start one of those tiresome flame wars between posters, I think that some of Patrick's posts show a typical degree of rough insensitivity that still make the hard Tory right a different breed from most of us.
Actually based on the map above Le Pen won about 47 departements to Macron's 42 so if France had an electoral college system like the US and no runoff like the US she may well have won the electoral college as Trump did even if Macron, like Hillary, won the popular vote
Except that if france had the same system as the states voters wouldn't have voted for the minor candidates. Le Pen would have been hammered in the first and only round
You cannot know that for certain. The fact is if France had the US system there would still have been more than 2 candidates in the first round and it would have been departements or regions won that was key
Have you factored in population size into you calculation fantasy?
That depends how they would calculate the electoral college but Le Pen won more departements as Trump won more states it was the popular vote which had Macron and Hillary ahead
If you want to tell yourself winning Paris is the equivalent of winning Haute-Marne then go right ahead. I'll be over here with the non crazy people.
roger - UK economic policy has not helped our second tier cities with the huge one way brain drain to London. If that is where all the opportunities are those with get up and go won't hang around. And is it all about art/film/food? Perhaps we have other strengths that, whisper it, the French don't.
I was parodying Patrick's rather condescending "It's a shame that we aren't going to get the amusement of Le Pen vs Melanchon! Macron is the living embodiment of trendy metrosexual right-on chic." Mine was deliberate. Exraordinary though it might seem I don't think Patrick's was!
I stick by my assertion that most punters bet on what they want to happen in football and politics.
One difficulty is where what you want to happen coincides with good odds. I find that makes me second guess myself a bit.
That's where I really think more about my bets.
But then sometimes, you have to think, feck it, take the 20/1 on the Tories getting more than 9.5 MPs in Scotland.
I held off on Scottish constituency bets last time round because I doubted the generalisability of my own experience and I believe on here I posted that I expected Yes voters to flock back to Lab at 2015 as they had done in 2010 after voting SNP in 2007.
It meant my bets on SNP taking Glasgow seats were at 5/1 rather than 50/1
Sometimes distance lends a better perspective too.
Most of my largest political winners have been in Scottish, American, and French election
That you're less 'invested' in the result and more reliant on the data.
@Patrick, why are you so obsessed with Macron's sexuality?
Metrosexual is, despite the name, more an issue of style than sexuality isn't it?
But Patrick used the word "gay".
My issue is with the dishonesty not the sexuality. I frankly couldn't give a shit if he blows goats. But I do think it is dishonest to present himself as something he isn't. Surely the French are liberal enough not to care too?
Has a French presidential candidate ever stood in front of the electorate and talked openly about his mistresses, instead of standing side by side with his wife? Non. There is no difference in what Macron may be doing.
Macron is hardly running on a "Back to basics" platform though. He may well have a couple of lovers both male and female, his wife might well know and could even be involved
I thought it was mandatory in France for every married man to have at least one mistress.
@Patrick, why are you so obsessed with Macron's sexuality?
Metrosexual is, despite the name, more an issue of style than sexuality isn't it?
But Patrick used the word "gay".
My issue is with the dishonesty not the sexuality. I frankly couldn't give a shit if he blows goats. But I do think it is dishonest to present himself as something he isn't. Surely the French are liberal enough not to care too?
The French media traditionally don't go into current politicians' sex lives, or lack thereof. It's one of the many ways (more serious, more balanced, more detailed) that their media is on average better than ours.
If your sex life is in any way a little non-standard, you run a risk in standing for Parliament in Britain - probably not an electoral risk as the voters don't much care, but a risk of media intrusion. As a result, we miss out on perfectly competent people not going for the top jobs because they think someone they love will be hurt (I can think of a prominent recent example). It's both their loss and our loss, because we deserve to have the widest possible choice.
Without wishing to start one of those tiresome flame wars between posters, I think that some of Patrick's posts show a typical degree of rough insensitivity that still make the hard Tory right a different breed from most of us.
The hard anything are a different breed from most of us. By definition people on the edges are unusual.
I'd be interested to know why so many of our regular posters are mournful that France looks set to pick a moderate centrist president who isn't fascist or batshit mental.
It's a shame that we aren't going to get the amusement of Le Pen vs Melanchon! Macron is the living embodiment of trendy metrosexual right-on chic. A gay Tony Blair with better suits. France has some real problems. He ain't gonna sort them. But, like Trudeau in Canada, the MSM will love him while his country continues to circle the pan. France basically needs a Maggie. Why is it is so seemingly impossible for them to elect a sensible centre-right non-loony non-shiney teeth candidate?
As I wonder through France's fifth largest city and see a vibrant cafe society with more museums art galleries statues and street art than you'd see anywhere in England outside London and an attractive healthy cultured population where the average waiter knows more about film and philosophy than 95% of the English
.......and compare it to Leeds where an obese population waddle around believing fine dining is an evening at Wetherspoons and culture is an hour with Jeremy Kyle I wonder where the French went wrong
Thanks, Roger, perhaps nip out to somewhere like Sevran and report back to us from France, as opposed to Richistan?
btw I shall be in the high Pyrenees for election night. I assume from the frequency of your (excellent) posts that pb.com is freely accessible in those parts, but do they block UK gambling sites?
Different kettle of fish, but when I started betting regularly on F1, I deliberately tried to take a mental step back from caring which driver or team did well or badly. Think it's a good idea, although significantly different to politics where results are driven by what people want collectively.
Hope we all made money last night. I stayed out of the betting on the first round (have only a lay on MLP overall) but it has been fascinating to watch over the last few months. PB at its best, both in the tips offered and last night as the results came in. The vote sample "exit poll" was very accurate yet the markets thought differently until most of the results were in.
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Labour 38% Con 29% LD 18%
This means you're predicting the Lib Dems will do worse in Vauxhall than they did in 2001, 2005 and 2010... I can't see it happening.
The Lib Dems are polling substantially worse than they were in 2001, 2005 and 2010.
And how does Labour's polling compare?
Better. At this stage of 2010 Labour was averaging about 30, they're now averaging about 25. So they've lost roughly 1/6th of their voters. The Lib Dems were averaging about 19, they're now averaging about 11 so have lost roughly 3/5ths of their voters.
Labour are struggling but not as much as the Lib Dems.
So, in your opinion, Hughes stands no chance in Bermondsey ?
@Patrick, why are you so obsessed with Macron's sexuality?
Metrosexual is, despite the name, more an issue of style than sexuality isn't it?
But Patrick used the word "gay".
My issue is with the dishonesty not the sexuality. I frankly couldn't give a shit if he blows goats. But I do think it is dishonest to present himself as something he isn't. Surely the French are liberal enough not to care too?
Has a French presidential candidate ever stood in front of the electorate and talked openly about his mistresses, instead of standing side by side with his wife? Non. There is no difference in what Macron may be doing.
Macron is hardly running on a "Back to basics" platform though. He may well have a couple of lovers both male and female, his wife might well know and could even be involved
Theresa May may be stealing some of Labour's clothes, but she's still a Conservative.
Socially, she is pro-family, pro-Union, pro-monarchy, pro-Christian, and identifies with middle England, not North London Marxist intellectuals, and feels no sense of shame over this country's history or identity.
Economically, she will be fiscally conservative, and won't be increasing corporation tax, top rate tax, or reducing income tax allowances on higher rate earners, in other words spending and taxing more as a matter of conviction, but she may emphasise different priorities.
She certainly seems to have made a couple of manifesto choices that won't please the core vote: Foreign Aid protection and flexibility to raise taxes. I agree wholeheartedly that she should remove the Osborne rigidity on tax policy. Hammond needs to rebalance tax somewhat and to recognise the gig economy. May said she wants freedom but the instinct is still to keep taxes low. This probably means a further deepening of the progressive nature of our tax system. Bad for me personally but good for brand Tory with the working classes. On DfiD / Foreign Aid - this is a political move. And a move that has vanishingly few natural customers in our electorate. Maybe the optics would be 'nasty' if we cut it back and spent the money on social care instead. I don't really agree with this policy - but hey ho.
I expect she has had the FO briefing and is aware that the UK has sacrificed quite enough global influence and goodwill this past year already.
There seem to be as many Le Pen fans on here moaning about the result as there were Islamophobes saying the Dortmund attack was carried out by Muslims... none!
Actually based on the map above Le Pen won about 47 departements to Macron's 42 so if France had an electoral college system like the US and no runoff like the US she may well have won the electoral college as Trump did even if Macron, like Hillary, won the popular vote
Last night you were desperately trying to prove that in actual vote terms Le Pen was winning. It turned out the exit polls were spot on.
Now you are trying the stupid US electoral college tactics. France is a more enlightened country.
If Le Pen had won ALL the departments, she would still lose. France has the added insurance policy of the second vote. The chances of Le Pen or FN winning any department with 50% of the votes is very slim. That is why they have only 2 MLAs. This time they might get 10 maybe.
You are going on the runoff, the US has no runoff.The fact is France had the same trend as the US election and the EU referendum, Leave, Trump and Le Pen led in terms of council areas, states or departements but Hillary and Macron won the popular vote and Remain came close in the popular vote by winning by a large margin in the biggest cities
Wake up ! Smell the coffee. Macron has won decisively and the Sensible people will give your fascist candidate a hammering in two weeks time.
Le Pen still scored the highest FN voteshare in a presidential election and while Macron will win the runoff clearly about 2/5 of French voters will likely vote for Le Pen
There seem to be as many Le Pen fans on here moaning about the result as there were Islamophobes saying the Dortmund attack was carried out by Muslims... none!
Ugh! Look at them not squirm
Well, that because HYUFD is actually convinced she won.
Lib Dem Daisy Benson won't stand in Yeovil, election interferes with a house move.
Via BBC.
""With regret I've decided not to put myself forward to stand for the Liberal Democrats in Yeovil in the upcoming snap General Election," she says.
"Although I've been preparing for the past year, this election unfortunately comes at precisely the wrong time for me.
"I'm just in the process of completing purchasing a house within the constituency."
Former Yeovil MP Paddy Ashdown says: "Daisy has helped to energise the Constituency during her time as our PPC, and, I am very glad to tell you, has offered to continue to campaign for the upcoming County Council Elections in the time available to her, given her house move."
The question is the degree to which Le Pen can make inroads into either the Fillon or Melanchon voting blocs. It's more than likely some who voted for either of those candidates will back Le Pen over Macron, others will abstain and some will vote for Macron.
To be honest, that pretty much covers it.
Assuming supporters will follow the "advice" of a leader when it comes to a vote between two opposing races is a strategy fraught with risk. I recall when Clarke and Redwood joined forces after the second leadership ballot in 1997 their combined vote ought to have beaten Hague comfortably but it didn't.
Macron to win 60-40 seems a reasonable supposition. Le Pen will, I think, get more supporters from the defeated mainstream candidates than the first round votes would suggest. The cynic might argue the journey from a vote for Melanchon to a vote for Le Pen isn't that far - the cynic might also argue the same might be true of a vote for Fillon. The problem is if you try to see it through the prism of the British party political structure.
@Patrick, why are you so obsessed with Macron's sexuality?
Metrosexual is, despite the name, more an issue of style than sexuality isn't it?
But Patrick used the word "gay".
My issue is with the dishonesty not the sexuality. I frankly couldn't give a shit if he blows goats. But I do think it is dishonest to present himself as something he isn't. Surely the French are liberal enough not to care too?
Absolute bollocks, in what respect is he doing that? He presents himself as a married man, and that is what he is. He is making no case as to whether or not he is a married man with interests outside the marriage, any more than he is making a case as to whether he wears boxers or Y-fronts. People are complicated, and married men do not fall into just two camps - "Phwoar, I do like shagging something with tits" or "OMG I have an insatiable appetite for cock, I must marry a woman asap to put Patrick off the scent or my political career is toast". The "I mind the dishonesty not the sexuality" spiel is in every bigot's toolbox, and it's balls because it is always limited to dishonesty about sexuality, and because the reason for the dishonesty, if it is there, is precisely the existence of the bigot.
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Labour 38% Con 29% LD 18%
This means you're predicting the Lib Dems will do worse in Vauxhall than they did in 2001, 2005 and 2010... I can't see it happening.
The Lib Dems are polling substantially worse than they were in 2001, 2005 and 2010.
And how does Labour's polling compare?
Better. At this stage of 2010 Labour was averaging about 30, they're now averaging about 25. So they've lost roughly 1/6th of their voters. The Lib Dems were averaging about 19, they're now averaging about 11 so have lost roughly 3/5ths of their voters.
Labour are struggling but not as much as the Lib Dems.
So, in your opinion, Hughes stands no chance in Bermondsey ?
All hinges on whether UNS will apply to Lib Dems in this election . To illustrate some simple Maths in a 600 seat HofP Party A polls 8% last election 12% this election UNS Party A increases support by 4% in every constituency . Non UNS Party A polls 8% last election in 500 seats it gets 5% in 100 seats it gets 23% Overall support increases by 4% to 12% . In 500 seats it polls 7% . In 100 seats it will therefore get 37% many more gains than UNS would indicate . If you believe in UNS sell Lib Dem seats . If not consider buying Lib Dem seats .
The article also says they have no legal grounds to ask for divorce payments and that the Germans would be on the receiving end of the UK's missing contribution to the tune of €3bn a year from 2020 onwards.
A long-years PB.com mostly-lurker, addicted polanorak but betting rank-amateur, only betting at GE/Referendum time, my first serious bet was on Con Maj for 2015 - yay! - thanks to some chaps here and my usually unreliable gut feeling.
I bet very small at 5 bookies, mostly on tips from shrewdies hereabouts plus large dollops of DYOR. My biggest risk this time (thus far, anyway) is low double figures on that SkyBet triple which exactly mirrors my longtime instinct. If I win, double-yay. If I lose, meh. But great fun. I've got about 20 smaller fun bets on the go, too. Loads of excitement for the price of a posh coffee a day, basically. Or the Price of a packet of Tissue.
This is the best-informed political site in the UK, imo, even aside from the betting, not to mention the most literate, relaxed and bloody witty.
You chaps keep me up late most election-campaign nights, just (but not only) for the craic as my Irish grandmother would Ave It, and this is the best possible place for a polanorak to spend election night. Better than being at the count, for sure.
Many thanks to all. (Even the rude posters. With three exceptions. You know who you are.) Particularly OGH and the mod team.
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Labour 38% Con 29% LD 18%
This means you're predicting the Lib Dems will do worse in Vauxhall than they did in 2001, 2005 and 2010... I can't see it happening.
The Lib Dems are polling substantially worse than they were in 2001, 2005 and 2010.
And how does Labour's polling compare?
Better. At this stage of 2010 Labour was averaging about 30, they're now averaging about 25. So they've lost roughly 1/6th of their voters. The Lib Dems were averaging about 19, they're now averaging about 11 so have lost roughly 3/5ths of their voters.
Labour are struggling but not as much as the Lib Dems.
So, in your opinion, Hughes stands no chance in Bermondsey ?
All hinges on whether UNS will apply to Lib Dems in this election . To illustrate some simple Maths in a 600 seat HofP Party A polls 8% last election 12% this election UNS Party A increases support by 4% in every constituency . Non UNS Party A polls 8% last election in 500 seats it gets 5% in 100 seats it gets 23% Overall support increases by 4% to 12% . In 500 seats it polls 7% . In 100 seats it will therefore get 37% many more gains than UNS would indicate . If you believe in UNS sell Lib Dem seats . If not consider buying Lib Dem seats .
How about dual national swing ?
Treating party loyalties as a starting point but assuming the swing amongst leavers and remainers will be different - it might not be right but I've given it a go
@Patrick, why are you so obsessed with Macron's sexuality?
Metrosexual is, despite the name, more an issue of style than sexuality isn't it?
But Patrick used the word "gay".
My issue is with the dishonesty not the sexuality. I frankly couldn't give a shit if he blows goats. But I do think it is dishonest to present himself as something he isn't. Surely the French are liberal enough not to care too?
Absolute bollocks, in what respect is he doing that? He presents himself as a married man, and that is what he is. He is making no case as to whether or not he is a married man with interests outside the marriage, any more than he is making a case as to whether he wears boxers or Y-fronts. People are complicated, and married men do not fall into just two camps - "Phwoar, I do like shagging something with tits" or "OMG I have an insatiable appetite for cock, I must marry a woman asap to put Patrick off the scent or my political career is toast". The "I mind the dishonesty not the sexuality" spiel is in every bigot's toolbox, and it's balls because it is always limited to dishonesty about sexuality, and because the reason for the dishonesty, if it is there, is precisely the existence of the bigot.
Have to agree with you, it is hard to see how it makes a difference.
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Labour 38% Con 29% LD 18%
This means you're predicting the Lib Dems will do worse in Vauxhall than they did in 2001, 2005 and 2010... I can't see it happening.
The Lib Dems are polling substantially worse than they were in 2001, 2005 and 2010.
And how does Labour's polling compare?
Better. At this stage of 2010 Labour was averaging about 30, they're now averaging about 25. So they've lost roughly 1/6th of their voters. The Lib Dems were averaging about 19, they're now averaging about 11 so have lost roughly 3/5ths of their voters.
Labour are struggling but not as much as the Lib Dems.
So, in your opinion, Hughes stands no chance in Bermondsey ?
All hinges on whether UNS will apply to Lib Dems in this election . To illustrate some simple Maths in a 600 seat HofP Party A polls 8% last election 12% this election UNS Party A increases support by 4% in every constituency . Non UNS Party A polls 8% last election in 500 seats it gets 5% in 100 seats it gets 23% Overall support increases by 4% to 12% . In 500 seats it polls 7% . In 100 seats it will therefore get 37% many more gains than UNS would indicate . If you believe in UNS sell Lib Dem seats . If not consider buying Lib Dem seats .
How about dual national swing ?
Treating party loyalties as a starting point but assuming the swing amongst leavers and remainers will be different - it might not be right but I've given it a go
Sounds like there's more to her standing down than just a house move, especially given that her reason for moving house was to live in the constituency.
In all fairness, not many of us expected the Prime Minister to call a snap GE seeing as she had herself refused to contemplate it on any number of occasions.
Daisy's sole mistake was to take what the Prime Minister said as being a statement of truth and fact on which the country could rely whereas we now know it wasn't and it can't and we can all draw our conclusions from that.
It's come at just the wrong time for Daisy and she has decided she can't be a Parliamentary candidate - it's nice to see the sympathy and I'm sure if she were a Conservative candidate, we'd all be feeling the love.
Sounds like there's more to her standing down than just a house move, especially given that her reason for moving house was to live in the constituency.
No, imagine if her completion date is the date of the GE. It'll interfere with her campaigning and all sorts - imagine if she is canvassing and the estate agent or her solicitor calls. The white heat of a GE campaign + moving house sounds v v stressful to me. Allan Andrews won't be standing for the Tories in Coventry South as he is a new Dad too.
Sounds like there's more to her standing down than just a house move, especially given that her reason for moving house was to live in the constituency.
In all fairness, not many of us expected the Prime Minister to call a snap GE seeing as she had herself refused to contemplate it on any number of occasions.
Daisy's sole mistake was to take what the Prime Minister said as being a statement of truth and fact on which the country could rely whereas we now know it wasn't and it can't and we can all draw our conclusions from that.
It's come at just the wrong time for Daisy and she has decided she can't be a Parliamentary candidate - it's nice to see the sympathy and I'm sure if she were a Conservative candidate, we'd all be feeling the love.
It's good news for Marcus Fysh this time.
Come on stodge, it doesn't make any sense at all. She's moving into the constituency so she can't stand there?
Sounds like there's more to her standing down than just a house move, especially given that her reason for moving house was to live in the constituency.
It certainly has a decidedly odd feel about it.
She'd have been settled in by a 2020 GE. There is nothing odd about this. Potential MPS are human beings too.
In all fairness, not many of us expected the Prime Minister to call a snap GE seeing as she had herself refused to contemplate it on any number of occasions.
Daisy's sole mistake was to take what the Prime Minister said as being a statement of truth and fact on which the country could rely whereas we now know it wasn't and it can't and we can all draw our conclusions from that.
It's come at just the wrong time for Daisy and she has decided she can't be a Parliamentary candidate - it's nice to see the sympathy and I'm sure if she were a Conservative candidate, we'd all be feeling the love.
It's good news for Marcus Fysh this time.
Your response seems to completely ignore that she said she was ready to take on the snap election last week.
Ok, she spoke too soon, and has had to reassess, fine. But to patronisingly act as though the only mistake was to believe the PM, when she said she could fight it after it was apparent the PM had lied/changed her mind, is unfair.
So no, her sole mistake was not to believe the PM. It was to believe that, and also confirm she was ready for a snap election anyway, when in fact she was not. Not exactly a big deal that she is, in fact, not ready, nor even that she spoke too soon, but neither is it irrelevant when deciding to sneer at those poking fun at it.
Sounds like there's more to her standing down than just a house move, especially given that her reason for moving house was to live in the constituency.
She knows she's going to win the seat and can't afford the pay cut.
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Labour 38% Con 29% LD 18%
This means you're predicting the Lib Dems will do worse in Vauxhall than they did in 2001, 2005 and 2010... I can't see it happening.
The Lib Dems are polling substantially worse than they were in 2001, 2005 and 2010.
And how does Labour's polling compare?
Better. At this stage of 2010 Labour was averaging about 30, they're now averaging about 25. So they've lost roughly 1/6th of their voters. The Lib Dems were averaging about 19, they're now averaging about 11 so have lost roughly 3/5ths of their voters.
Labour are struggling but not as much as the Lib Dems.
So, in your opinion, Hughes stands no chance in Bermondsey ?
He stands a far greater chance than his party does in Vauxhall. If we use 2010 as the baseline then Hughes won Bermondsey by a majority of nearly 20%. Whereas Hoey had a majority of over 10k in 2010 before the LD collapse.
If the Lib Dems are to get any form of rapprochement with the electorate it will begin on places like Bermondsey where they can afford to do a lot worse than 2010 and still win anyway. Not in places like Vauxhall.
I find it funny that after years of hearing from certain people that the public doesn't care about the EU ... backed up by UKIPs failure to ever win a seat where they didn't have an incumbent... that supposedly now people are so angry about leaving that they will elect the yellows in places they lost by over 12 thousand votes last time. It isn't plausible.
Sounds like there's more to her standing down than just a house move, especially given that her reason for moving house was to live in the constituency.
She knows she's going to win the seat and can't afford the pay cut.
Looking at that map, I am pleased to say that in all but that ribbon of departments from the Lot et Garonne down to the Pyrenees all my favourite bits of France rejected Le Pen. The post-7th May map will be the most interesting, though.
@Patrick, why are you so obsessed with Macron's sexuality?
Metrosexual is, despite the name, more an issue of style than sexuality isn't it?
But Patrick used the word "gay".
My issue is with the dishonesty not the sexuality. I frankly couldn't give a shit if he blows goats. But I do think it is dishonest to present himself as something he isn't. Surely the French are liberal enough not to care too?
Why do you assume he's dishonest about his sexuality?
My guess would be that the result will be something like this:
Labour 38% Con 29% LD 18%
This means you're predicting the Lib Dems will do worse in Vauxhall than they did in 2001, 2005 and 2010... I can't see it happening.
The Lib Dems are polling substantially worse than they were in 2001, 2005 and 2010.
And how does Labour's polling compare?
Better. At this stage of 2010 Labour was averaging about 30, they're now averaging about 25. So they've lost roughly 1/6th of their voters. The Lib Dems were averaging about 19, they're now averaging about 11 so have lost roughly 3/5ths of their voters.
Labour are struggling but not as much as the Lib Dems.
So, in your opinion, Hughes stands no chance in Bermondsey ?
All hinges on whether UNS will apply to Lib Dems in this election . To illustrate some simple Maths in a 600 seat HofP Party A polls 8% last election 12% this election UNS Party A increases support by 4% in every constituency . Non UNS Party A polls 8% last election in 500 seats it gets 5% in 100 seats it gets 23% Overall support increases by 4% to 12% . In 500 seats it polls 7% . In 100 seats it will therefore get 37% many more gains than UNS would indicate . If you believe in UNS sell Lib Dem seats . If not consider buying Lib Dem seats .
How about dual national swing ?
Treating party loyalties as a starting point but assuming the swing amongst leavers and remainers will be different - it might not be right but I've given it a go
Sounds like there's more to her standing down than just a house move, especially given that her reason for moving house was to live in the constituency.
Actually based on the map above Le Pen won about 47 departements to Macron's 42 so if France had an electoral college system like the US and no runoff like the US she may well have won the electoral college as Trump did even if Macron, like Hillary, won the popular vote
Except that if france had the same system as the states voters wouldn't have voted for the minor candidates. Le Pen would have been hammered in the first and only round
You cannot know that for certain. The fact is if France had the US system there would still have been more than 2 candidates in the first round and it would have been departements or regions won that was key
Have you factored in population size into you calculation fantasy?
That depends how they would calculate the electoral college but Le Pen won more departements as Trump won more states it was the popular vote which had Macron and Hillary ahead
So, presumably she'll win more Departments in two weeks time?
Or will she, in fact, win absolutely no Departments whatsoever in two weeks time?
Sounds like there's more to her standing down than just a house move, especially given that her reason for moving house was to live in the constituency.
No, imagine if her completion date is the date of the GE. It'll interfere with her campaigning and all sorts - imagine if she is canvassing and the estate agent or her solicitor calls. The white heat of a GE campaign + moving house sounds v v stressful to me. Allan Andrews won't be standing for the Tories in Coventry South as he is a new Dad too.
Emma Reynolds gave birth 10 days ago. She still intends standing.
In all fairness, not many of us expected the Prime Minister to call a snap GE seeing as she had herself refused to contemplate it on any number of occasions.
Daisy's sole mistake was to take what the Prime Minister said as being a statement of truth and fact on which the country could rely whereas we now know it wasn't and it can't and we can all draw our conclusions from that.
It's come at just the wrong time for Daisy and she has decided she can't be a Parliamentary candidate - it's nice to see the sympathy and I'm sure if she were a Conservative candidate, we'd all be feeling the love.
It's good news for Marcus Fysh this time.
One of the things that made me think that there was always a possibility of an early GE was that Theresa May never did rule it out. Her wording was very clearly leaving open that space. She said that she didn't want one and had no plans to call one. Given the amount of work and phone calls I've had over the last week and how CCHQ and regional offices were caught on the hop, I've no doubt that's true: no on-the-ground preparation had been made beyond that which was already being done for 2020.
Actually based on the map above Le Pen won about 47 departements to Macron's 42 so if France had an electoral college system like the US and no runoff like the US she may well have won the electoral college as Trump did even if Macron, like Hillary, won the popular vote
Except that if france had the same system as the states voters wouldn't have voted for the minor candidates. Le Pen would have been hammered in the first and only round
You cannot know that for certain. The fact is if France had the US system there would still have been more than 2 candidates in the first round and it would have been departements or regions won that was key
Have you factored in population size into you calculation fantasy?
That depends how they would calculate the electoral college but Le Pen won more departements as Trump won more states it was the popular vote which had Macron and Hillary ahead
So, presumably she'll win more Departments in two weeks time?
Or will she, in fact, win absolutely no Departments whatsoever in two weeks time?
The normally sane HYUFD's obsession with finding a way that Le Pen 'won' when she lost decisively is one of the more bizarre episodes on PB this past few weeks.
Maybe we should have new thread, perhaps on how the French First Round would have looked under an electoral college, run under AV?
TMay will have no truck with Goldsmith’s pleading assuming the story is true, just as she ignored Carswell. She's right to reward loyalty, not perfidy.
One interesting little snippet from the POTFR election by our old friends in the Auld Aliiance, is that despite all the terrorist attacks in Paris over the past few years, Len Pen polled under 5% of the vote in the French capital.
In the Paris departement itself but then Hillary won Manhattan and Brooklyn by a landslide too as Remain did in inner London. In the outer suburbs of Paris Le Pen got close to her national score as Leave did in suburban outer London and Trump did in Queens and Staten Island
Morning HYUFD.
I had to turn in about midnite. Have you conceded yet, or do you still think Le Pen can still nick it?
In terms of departements won Le Pen did narrowly win even if Macron won the popular vote. As I said before if France had an electoral college system and no runoff like the US Le Pen may well have won
But unlike the US France doesn't have a rigged system that allows the person with most votes to lose.
Even if France had the same system as the US and departments had electoral college votes apportioned to population she would still not have won because her strength was, by and large, in less populated rural Department.
Sounds like there's more to her standing down than just a house move, especially given that her reason for moving house was to live in the constituency.
No, imagine if her completion date is the date of the GE. It'll interfere with her campaigning and all sorts - imagine if she is canvassing and the estate agent or her solicitor calls. The white heat of a GE campaign + moving house sounds v v stressful to me. Allan Andrews won't be standing for the Tories in Coventry South as he is a new Dad too.
Sure it's stressful, but if she has a good solicitor the actual process of purchasing shouldn't be too difficult. She'll probably also have a team around her for the campaign who can get papers to sign etc to her if urgently required.
A new baby I can understand more as an excuse for standing aside, genuine family reason.
Comments
France's Labour market is just one example of the drawbacks of the 'overprotection' approach in France - it's the same with their housing market for example. Tenant rights are far stronger than landlord ones (you can't even be evicted during the winter months, even if you don't pay the rent). So landlords are extremely reluctant to lease to you in the first place, and employers reluctant to hire new staff. Result, anyone with a CDI job and a place to stay is great, but anyone looking for an apartment or a job is screwed.
If the Labour candidate in Bermondsey was Hoey, then that would have been a different matter.
But punters like Pulpstar, Richard Nabavi, Alastair Meeks, and AndyJS are some of the most objective and least subject to confirmation bias as you'll ever find.
My objectivity is beyond reproach.
Die Tory Scum Die.
Labour are struggling but not as much as the Lib Dems.
But then sometimes, you have to think, feck it, take the 20/1 on the Tories getting more than 9.5 MPs in Scotland.
Lab Hold Bermondsey, Lib Dem Gain Vauxhall. I give £25 to charity,
Lib Dem Gain Bermondsey, Lab Hold Vauxhall. You give £25 to charity ?
Socially, she is pro-family, pro-Union, pro-monarchy, pro-Christian, and identifies with middle England, not North London Marxist intellectuals, and feels no sense of shame over this country's history or identity.
Economically, she will be fiscally conservative, and won't be increasing corporation tax, top rate tax, or reducing income tax allowances on higher rate earners, in other words spending and taxing more as a matter of conviction, but she may emphasise different priorities.
According to @BILD, German experts warn that #brexit without a deal could cost Germany €6bn by 2020
http://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/brexit/koennte-deutschland-milliarden-kosten-51412894.bild.html
I think @rcs1000 decision to take the Lib Dems on at 10-1 there was "bold" mind. It will surely have the largest Lab -> Lib Dem swing of anywhere - but that swing needs to be bloody huge.
It meant my bets on SNP taking Glasgow seats were at 5/1 rather than 50/1
Dieu et mon droit as an Englishman to bash the nation of collaborators.
Is Frank in your name short for François?
Theresa May may be stealing some of Labour's clothes, but she's still a Conservative.
Socially, she is pro-family, pro-Union, pro-monarchy, pro-Christian, and identifies with middle England, not North London Marxist intellectuals, and feels no sense of shame over this country's history or identity.
Economically, she will be fiscally conservative, and won't be increasing corporation tax, top rate tax, or reducing income tax allowances on higher rate earners, in other words spending and taxing more as a matter of conviction, but she may emphasise different priorities.
She certainly seems to have made a couple of manifesto choices that won't please the core vote: Foreign Aid protection and flexibility to raise taxes.
I agree wholeheartedly that she should remove the Osborne rigidity on tax policy. Hammond needs to rebalance tax somewhat and to recognise the gig economy. May said she wants freedom but the instinct is still to keep taxes low. This probably means a further deepening of the progressive nature of our tax system. Bad for me personally but good for brand Tory with the working classes.
On DfiD / Foreign Aid - this is a political move. And a move that has vanishingly few natural customers in our electorate. Maybe the optics would be 'nasty' if we cut it back and spent the money on social care instead. I don't really agree with this policy - but hey ho.
If your sex life is in any way a little non-standard, you run a risk in standing for Parliament in Britain - probably not an electoral risk as the voters don't much care, but a risk of media intrusion. As a result, we miss out on perfectly competent people not going for the top jobs because they think someone they love will be hurt (I can think of a prominent recent example). It's both their loss and our loss, because we deserve to have the widest possible choice.
Without wishing to start one of those tiresome flame wars between posters, I think that some of Patrick's posts show a typical degree of rough insensitivity that still make the hard Tory right a different breed from most of us.
Most of my largest political winners have been in Scottish, American, and French election
That you're less 'invested' in the result and more reliant on the data.
CF Iain Gray's leader ratings in 2011.
Ugh! Look at them not squirm
Via BBC.
""With regret I've decided not to put myself forward to stand for the Liberal Democrats in Yeovil in the upcoming snap General Election," she says.
"Although I've been preparing for the past year, this election unfortunately comes at precisely the wrong time for me.
"I'm just in the process of completing purchasing a house within the constituency."
Former Yeovil MP Paddy Ashdown says: "Daisy has helped to energise the Constituency during her time as our PPC, and, I am very glad to tell you, has offered to continue to campaign for the upcoming County Council Elections in the time available to her, given her house move."
The question is the degree to which Le Pen can make inroads into either the Fillon or Melanchon voting blocs. It's more than likely some who voted for either of those candidates will back Le Pen over Macron, others will abstain and some will vote for Macron.
To be honest, that pretty much covers it.
Assuming supporters will follow the "advice" of a leader when it comes to a vote between two opposing races is a strategy fraught with risk. I recall when Clarke and Redwood joined forces after the second leadership ballot in 1997 their combined vote ought to have beaten Hague comfortably but it didn't.
Macron to win 60-40 seems a reasonable supposition. Le Pen will, I think, get more supporters from the defeated mainstream candidates than the first round votes would suggest. The cynic might argue the journey from a vote for Melanchon to a vote for Le Pen isn't that far - the cynic might also argue the same might be true of a vote for Fillon. The problem is if you try to see it through the prism of the British party political structure.
"Phwoar, I do like shagging something with tits" or "OMG I have an insatiable appetite for cock, I must marry a woman asap to put Patrick off the scent or my political career is toast". The "I mind the dishonesty not the sexuality" spiel is in every bigot's toolbox, and it's balls because it is always limited to dishonesty about sexuality, and because the reason for the dishonesty, if it is there, is precisely the existence of the bigot.
http://www.somersetlive.co.uk/yeovil-lib-dem-candidate-daisy-benson-ready-to-fight-marcus-fysh-at-snap-election/story-30277614-detail/story.html
To illustrate some simple Maths in a 600 seat HofP
Party A polls 8% last election 12% this election UNS Party A increases support by 4% in every constituency .
Non UNS Party A polls 8% last election in 500 seats it gets 5% in 100 seats it gets 23%
Overall support increases by 4% to 12% . In 500 seats it polls 7% . In 100 seats it will therefore get 37% many more gains than UNS would indicate .
If you believe in UNS sell Lib Dem seats . If not consider buying Lib Dem seats .
(All while Macron wants a common EU budget)
I bet very small at 5 bookies, mostly on tips from shrewdies hereabouts plus large dollops of DYOR. My biggest risk this time (thus far, anyway) is low double figures on that SkyBet triple which exactly mirrors my longtime instinct. If I win, double-yay. If I lose, meh. But great fun. I've got about 20 smaller fun bets on the go, too. Loads of excitement for the price of a posh coffee a day, basically. Or the Price of a packet of Tissue.
This is the best-informed political site in the UK, imo, even aside from the betting, not to mention the most literate, relaxed and bloody witty.
You chaps keep me up late most election-campaign nights, just (but not only) for the craic as my Irish grandmother would Ave It, and this is the best possible place for a polanorak to spend election night. Better than being at the count, for sure.
Many thanks to all. (Even the rude posters. With three exceptions. You know who you are.) Particularly OGH and the mod team.
Treating party loyalties as a starting point but assuming the swing amongst leavers and remainers will be different - it might not be right but I've given it a go
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19nmsiGcSCIGWDZJ-YJJYxAwracXkWi-_4jY22XsW_7k/edit#gid=2055383099
That was when I was a North London lefty, and couldn't compute that we would elect a posh boy that said "balderdash" or "piffle"
Daisy's sole mistake was to take what the Prime Minister said as being a statement of truth and fact on which the country could rely whereas we now know it wasn't and it can't and we can all draw our conclusions from that.
It's come at just the wrong time for Daisy and she has decided she can't be a Parliamentary candidate - it's nice to see the sympathy and I'm sure if she were a Conservative candidate, we'd all be feeling the love.
It's good news for Marcus Fysh this time.
Allan Andrews won't be standing for the Tories in Coventry South as he is a new Dad too.
Join the club. Been there, blocked by Eoin.
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/856434675144945664
Ok, she spoke too soon, and has had to reassess, fine. But to patronisingly act as though the only mistake was to believe the PM, when she said she could fight it after it was apparent the PM had lied/changed her mind, is unfair.
So no, her sole mistake was not to believe the PM. It was to believe that, and also confirm she was ready for a snap election anyway, when in fact she was not. Not exactly a big deal that she is, in fact, not ready, nor even that she spoke too soon, but neither is it irrelevant when deciding to sneer at those poking fun at it.
Wouldn't be the first time that's happened.
If the Lib Dems are to get any form of rapprochement with the electorate it will begin on places like Bermondsey where they can afford to do a lot worse than 2010 and still win anyway. Not in places like Vauxhall.
I find it funny that after years of hearing from certain people that the public doesn't care about the EU ... backed up by UKIPs failure to ever win a seat where they didn't have an incumbent... that supposedly now people are so angry about leaving that they will elect the yellows in places they lost by over 12 thousand votes last time. It isn't plausible.
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/856441416846856193
Or will she, in fact, win absolutely no Departments whatsoever in two weeks time?
She changed her mind; she didn't lie.
Maybe we should have new thread, perhaps on how the French First Round would have looked under an electoral college, run under AV?
Even if France had the same system as the US and departments had electoral college votes apportioned to population she would still not have won because her strength was, by and large, in less populated rural Department.
A new baby I can understand more as an excuse for standing aside, genuine family reason.