I have come to the conclusion that it's not Corbyn's fault that Labour are doing so badly in the polls here, it's Labour in general. We have had two elections in EU member nations where the Socialists (i.e members of the same European grouping that Labour sit in) have crashed and burned. In the Netherlands the Labour grouping collapsed from 25% in 2012 to just 6% and now in France, they have collapsed from 29% to just 6% (an average drop in those two countries of -21%). I don't think that it will be that bad here in the UK for Labour, but the trend does appear to be continuing here in the UK. Socialists in Europe are being hammered.
Won't be as bad as they aren't as full blooded socialist perhaps?
I wonder what it must feel like leading a party into a General Election knowing you personally are responsible for the looming disasterous result and being the cause of so many devoted people losing their jobs?
That would depend on the person, of course. Corbyn and the rest of his faction endured decades of crushing, banging their heads against a brick wall, defeat before unexpectedly winning the 2015 leadership election. Losing has been a way of life for them.
I'm not sure whether or not they would be that bothered by the mass rejection off their fellow MPs. I'm almost certain that they won't be that bothered about ruinous defeat at the polls. Far more concerned about establishing permanent ascendancy in the Labour Party and turning it into a lobby group for their ideas, I would've thought.
Reminder: the Labour Party now has 44 days left to convince the voters of England and Wales that a Far Left minority Government, led by Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott and Thornberry, and propped up by the votes of Scottish Nationalists, is something to be celebrated.
As in 2015 its not our policies that are the issue, its the personality. Remember that Ed was dubbed Communist for suggesting energy price caps. I suspect noone will brand May Communist for adopting the same policy.
Still, my CLP Exec met last night and mapped out our campaign. Our rebuttal to the Corbyn issue on the doorstep when raised is simple.
"Jeremy will not become Prime Minister because we aren't going to win this election. But we need as many Labour MPs as we can to provide robust opposition under a new leader so that Theresa May doesn't have a blank cheque to do whatever she likes to you". Remove Jezbollah from contention and we may have a chance...
It might be ok for locals but that is a horrible strategy for national elections. Vote for us to make it close, don't worry we won't win.
Going back to 2001 again it reminds me of the Tony Blair balloon poster that Conservatives used in the closing stages to basically plead "We aren't going to win but if you make us not win by a smaller margin that'd be nice"
What amazes me is how so many of the politicos on here are completely out of touch with public opinion and get distressed when an election produces a result they weren't expecting.
The other amazing thing is that nobody on here has ever had a losing bet.
I see after all the hysteria that the French polling was very accurate and the French vote sampling was very accurate.
The betting markets were not.
It seems that for the while it will be profitable not to follow the money.
Yes, we could do with some French pollsters over here! No wonder the exit poll is treated as a result in France - it is pretty much bang on.
Our exit poll was pretty decent. And there's was based on a sampling of actual votes people say. More a snapshot than an exit poll.
French elections are easier for their pollsters because of the very high participation rate. Also estimating the vote %s and then any sort of geographic system (Ourselves and USA) is alot harder than just getting the vote % (France and Netherlands).
I wonder what it must feel like leading a party into a General Election knowing you personally are responsible for the looming disasterous result and being the cause of so many devoted people losing their jobs?
That would depend on the person, of course. Corbyn and the rest of his faction endured decades of crushing, banging their heads against a brick wall, defeat before unexpectedly winning the 2015 leadership election. Losing has been a way of life for them.
I'm not sure whether or not they would be that bothered by the mass rejection off their fellow MPs. I'm almost certain that they won't be that bothered about ruinous defeat at the polls. Far more concerned about establishing permanent ascendancy in the Labour Party and turning it into a lobby group for their ideas, I would've thought.
Reminder: the Labour Party now has 44 days left to convince the voters of England and Wales that a Far Left minority Government, led by Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott and Thornberry, and propped up by the votes of Scottish Nationalists, is something to be celebrated.
As in 2015 its not our policies that are the issue, its the personality. Remember that Ed was dubbed Communist for suggesting energy price caps. I suspect noone will brand May Communist for adopting the same policy.
Still, my CLP Exec met last night and mapped out our campaign. Our rebuttal to the Corbyn issue on the doorstep when raised is simple.
"Jeremy will not become Prime Minister because we aren't going to win this election. But we need as many Labour MPs as we can to provide robust opposition under a new leader so that Theresa May doesn't have a blank cheque to do whatever she likes to you". Remove Jezbollah from contention and we may have a chance...
It might be ok for locals but that is a horrible strategy for national elections. Vote for us to make it close, don't worry we won't win.
Unfortunately, for Labour that is the truth and the most effective damage limitation strategy.
Can't see Le Pen winning this, but not long to find out. Interesting lack of a central ground, with one candidate being a full-blown federalist and the other wanting to leave the single currency.
Fillon should've stepped down. Daft cock.
Mr. Choose, if you want to observe some losing bets, go to my F1 blog and check the 2016 season
What amazes me is how so many of the politicos on here are completely out of touch with public opinion and get distressed when an election produces a result they weren't expecting.
The other amazing thing is that nobody on here has ever had a losing bet.
I did, a few days ago on the election date. I was F ING mortified.
I can also guarantee you however that several posters here - Tissue Price, Richard Nabavi, Alastair Meeks, @Gettingbetter and others will have returns on investments in political betting that are MILES higher than any horse racing tipster. If there were as many political betting events as horse races we'd be up millions.
I'd be interested to know why so many of our regular posters are mournful that France looks set to pick a moderate centrist president who isn't fascist or batshit mental.
Lost profits?
No. I don't think a lot of them have bet a penny on the election actually.
I had several hundred pennies riding on macrons vote not turning out and fillion winning the second round against Le Pen. Thanks people of France for choosing 'hope' and 'not being a fascist or a crook' over my winnings.
I have come to the conclusion that it's not Corbyn's fault that Labour are doing so badly in the polls here, it's Labour in general. We have had two elections in EU member nations where the Socialists (i.e members of the same European grouping that Labour sit in) have crashed and burned. In the Netherlands the Labour grouping collapsed from 25% in 2012 to just 6% and now in France, they have collapsed from 29% to just 6% (an average drop in those two countries of -21%). I don't think that it will be that bad here in the UK for Labour, but the trend does appear to be continuing here in the UK. Socialists in Europe are being hammered.
If there's one man that can beat the Dutch and French at their own game it's Corbyn!
(As illustrated by RochdalePioneers below there's a tricky doorstep message.)
I'd be interested to know why so many of our regular posters are mournful that France looks set to pick a moderate centrist president who isn't fascist or batshit mental.
Probably not the moderate centrism that's concerning but the lack of experience and largely blank canvass. Things could go wrong very quickly.
Oh I'm not particularly expecting him to be a good president. The disappointment on Ms Le Pen's behalf in some quarters, however, is palpable.
It is indeed. It is almost as if tbey are frothing europhobes.
An interesting triple up on Skybet requestabet : Con 400-450, Lab 100-150, LD 10-19 at 12/1. Sounds about right to me.
Still find it hard to believe that Labour could be sub 150. I mean I know the polls indicate that at the moment but wow. Good odds though. Got to be more likely than that.
Labout sub 150 is not impossible. In 1983, it was 209 with about 50 in Scotland. In today's currency it is 150 but there have been boundary reviews since. The Tory vote according to the polls now is much higher. Thatcher got 43% , if I recall.
What amazes me is how so many of the politicos on here are completely out of touch with public opinion and get distressed when an election produces a result they weren't expecting.
The other amazing thing is that nobody on here has ever had a losing bet.
I did, a few days ago on the election date. I was F ING mortified.
Me too - mortification in 376 new harder-to-fake parts.
This map demonstrates that Macron had succes in his balancing act:
- he sweeps the traditional core geography of the socialists: South-West, Centre-West, Bretagne (the Le Drian support was a huge factor), rural Auvergne departements, easter inner suburbs of Paris. His squeezing of Hamon was extremely succesful.
- but he also performs very well in traditional centre-right areas like Normandy, Vendee, Southern massif Central, and the western inner suburbs and all outer suburbs of Paris. This is where Fillon lost the election. He got the core right-wing vote but not the more christian-democrat, centre-right areas.
What is not visible on this map is that Macron also did well in the North-East. Le Pen had huge scores as expected but Macron was second in many places and once again outscored Fillon in former centre-right bastions like Alsace or Picardy.
Mélenchon got massive scores in metropolitan areas and overseas territories but his failure to beat Macron in more rural areas prevented him from reaching 20%
Any thoughts on the Asembly elections? Is En Marche viable at that level? Surely it must be transfer friendly?
En Marche is currently a movement and not a party.
Regarding transfers, indeed EM candidates could be transfer friendly... if they reach the second round. And therefore the key question will be the choice of candidates. EM has only announced 14 candidates so far (out of 577) but has indicated he would support candidates in all constituencies.
What is not clear yet is if EM will support some current MPs if they ask to join the movement. Quite a number of socialists MPs would certainly like to do so but it would be a massive problem to be seen as a recycling outfit for socialists.
At this stage my best guess would be that neither of the traditional blocks will get a clear majority, as the FN will reach the 15 seats threshold for an official political group in the Assembly. A lot will depend on the government Macron would name in two weeks time. It is largely symbolical as no law can be passed before the Assembly election but the choice will have a very large impact on the campaign.
My guess is that he will avoid putting too many socialists in government and try to have at least two or thee big name centrists.
I see that Mrs May was in Dudley yesterday with Andy Street.
I'm pretty sure Andy would have won the mayoral election anyway, but the length of This campaign coupled with the incapacity of the Labour campaign is going to ensure that she has long coattails
I'd be interested to know why so many of our regular posters are mournful that France looks set to pick a moderate centrist president who isn't fascist or batshit mental.
It's a shame that we aren't going to get the amusement of Le Pen vs Melanchon! Macron is the living embodiment of trendy metrosexual right-on chic. A gay Tony Blair with better suits. France has some real problems. He ain't gonna sort them. But, like Trudeau in Canada, the MSM will love him while his country continues to circle the pan. France basically needs a Maggie. Why is it is so seemingly impossible for them to elect a sensible centre-right non-loony non-shiney teeth candidate?
I'd be interested to know why so many of our regular posters are mournful that France looks set to pick a moderate centrist president who isn't fascist or batshit mental.
Lost profits?
No. I don't think a lot of them have bet a penny on the election actually.
I had several hundred pennies riding on macrons vote not turning out and fillion winning the second round against Le Pen. Thanks people of France for choosing 'hope' and 'not being a fascist or a crook' over my winnings.
I am all green bar Le Pen, but Fillon's odds were good value. I was bigger Green on him....
Most of my bankroll currently invested in seat bets - including a pony on the LDs in Richmond Park at 25/1...
Is this the 'Rape' issue the SNP are complaining about?
An independent watchdog has strongly criticised the treatment by the NHS and police of victims of sexual assault.
The inspector of constabulary (HMICS) said services offered to some victims were "unacceptable."
The review said they lagged behind the rest of the UK, with many victims being examined in police stations.
The Scottish government said it was establishing a group to improve the responses to victims of rape or sexual assault.
'establishing a group'.......well, that's ok then. Meanwhile, back to the child benefit question which the SNP could do something about (if its so evil) but has chosen to complain about Westminster instead.....
Typical anti Scottish bile from you. SNP suppposed to fix all the nasty parties policies from the pocket money. Already £400M down with previous nasties. Great to pontificate on the poor from tax exile.
The Liberal Democrat membership surge is about to take the party to a landmark 100,000 members – thanks to a staggering 12,500 joining since Theresa May announced the snap General Election last Tuesday.
I'd be interested to know why so many of our regular posters are mournful that France looks set to pick a moderate centrist president who isn't fascist or batshit mental.
Or utterly devoid of ethics in matters of personal finance. Like Hillary, he wouldn't have been my first choice but he was certainly my first choice out of what was offered.
I feel like if the info that a lot of people still don't know Corbyn's background is right, and thevpolling hovers around where it's been for a week or so, then part of it is sheer stubbornness, where someone is ' I made my choice already, stop badgering me about who I picked'. If so, they'll need to be really stubborn indeed to maintain current levels,
Twitter (((StephenDaisley)))Verified account @JournoStephen Apr 23 Replying to @JournoStephen Third, the SNP attack machine makes the GOP look like Rebecca of Sunnybrook Farm. @RuthDavidsonMSP is in for six weeks of sheer ugliness. 4/
This map demonstrates that Macron had succes in his balancing act:
- he sweeps the traditional core geography of the socialists: South-West, Centre-West, Bretagne (the Le Drian support was a huge factor), rural Auvergne departements, easter inner suburbs of Paris. His squeezing of Hamon was extremely succesful.
- but he also performs very well in traditional centre-right areas like Normandy, Vendee, Southern massif Central, and the western inner suburbs and all outer suburbs of Paris. This is where Fillon lost the election. He got the core right-wing vote but not the more christian-democrat, centre-right areas.
What is not visible on this map is that Macron also did well in the North-East. Le Pen had huge scores as expected but Macron was second in many places and once again outscored Fillon in former centre-right bastions like Alsace or Picardy.
Mélenchon got massive scores in metropolitan areas and overseas territories but his failure to beat Macron in more rural areas prevented him from reaching 20%
Any thoughts on the Asembly elections? Is En Marche viable at that level? Surely it must be transfer friendly?
En Marche is currently a movement and not a party.
Regarding transfers, indeed EM candidates could be transfer friendly... if they reach the second round. And therefore the key question will be the choice of candidates. EM has only announced 14 candidates so far (out of 577) but has indicated he would support candidates in all constituencies.
What is not clear yet is if EM will support some current MPs if they ask to join the movement. Quite a number of socialists MPs would certainly like to do so but it would be a massive problem to be seen as a recycling outfit for socialists.
At this stage my best guess would be that neither of the traditional blocks will get a clear majority, as the FN will reach the 15 seats threshold for an official political group in the Assembly. A lot will depend on the government Macron would name in two weeks time. It is largely symbolical as no law can be passed before the Assembly election but the choice will have a very large impact on the campaign.
My guess is that he will avoid putting too many socialists in government and try to have at least two or thee big name centrists.
Much appreciation to Chris and other reports from the ground in Paris.
I'd be interested to know why so many of our regular posters are mournful that France looks set to pick a moderate centrist president who isn't fascist or batshit mental.
Probably not the moderate centrism that's concerning but the lack of experience and largely blank canvass. Things could go wrong very quickly.
Oh I'm not particularly expecting him to be a good president. The disappointment on Ms Le Pen's behalf in some quarters, however, is palpable.
It is indeed. It is almost as if tbey are frothing europhobes.
An interesting triple up on Skybet requestabet : Con 400-450, Lab 100-150, LD 10-19 at 12/1. Sounds about right to me.
Right price or right result? 12/1 looks pretty generous.
I'd be interested to know why so many of our regular posters are mournful that France looks set to pick a moderate centrist president who isn't fascist or batshit mental.
It's a shame that we aren't going to get the amusement of Le Pen vs Melanchon! Macron is the living embodiment of trendy metrosexual right-on chic. A gay Tony Blair with better suits. France has some real problems. He ain't gonna sort them. But, like Trudeau in Canada, the MSM will love him while his country continues to circle the pan. France basically needs a Maggie. Why is it is so seemingly impossible for them to elect a sensible centre-right non-loony non-shiney teeth candidate?
Schroeder was a centre-left, deeply pro-European leader who forced through controversial reforms that turned Germany from the sick man of Europe into a global winner. France needs a Schroeder, not a Maggie, and in Macron, they've got one.
What amazes me is how so many of the politicos on here are completely out of touch with public opinion and get distressed when an election produces a result they weren't expecting.
The other amazing thing is that nobody on here has ever had a losing bet.
I did, a few days ago on the election date. I was F ING mortified.
I can also guarantee you however that several posters here - Tissue Price, Richard Nabavi, Alastair Meeks, @Gettingbetter and others will have returns on investments in political betting that are MILES higher than any horse racing tipster. If there were as many political betting events as horse races we'd be up millions.
I only started betting on politics in the past year. I've had 3 wins (Brexit, Trump, Stoke) and three losses (Copeland, Fillon, and Melenchon reaching the run off).
All those who support the European project and reject the ugly and divisive right wing politics of Trump and Farage and co should be delighted with this result. Following Geert Wilders obliteration in Holland this period will hopefully be seen as nothing more than an uncomfortable blip in the history of Western democracy.
The fact that during this blip we made the catastrophic decision to cast ourselves out from the most attractive and politically advanced institution in the world is a catastrophy that can hopefully be reversed in the not too distant future
Roger, like you, I was a remain voter and I was gutted at the result. But thanks to the SNP in Scotland trying to use my Remain vote in the EU Ref as an excuse to ignore my No vote in the 2014 Indy Ref and call another Indy Ref. I now find that it has actually strengthened my view that the Brexit result should be respected, and the issue is now all about deciding which party will fight the hardest to get the best Brexit deal.
The SNP attempt to try to piggyback another Indy Referendum on the back of the Brexit result has backfired in Scotland, and it might yet see the Libdems in Scotland struggle to be seen as a clear alternative to the SNP on Independence while the UK wide party campaigns for another EU Referendum in the hope of overturning the original result.
You and Carlotta seem to be getting real crap handouts from CCHQ these days. Desperation setting in methinks.
I'd be interested to know why so many of our regular posters are mournful that France looks set to pick a moderate centrist president who isn't fascist or batshit mental.
Probably not the moderate centrism that's concerning but the lack of experience and largely blank canvass. Things could go wrong very quickly.
Oh I'm not particularly expecting him to be a good president. The disappointment on Ms Le Pen's behalf in some quarters, however, is palpable.
It is indeed. It is almost as if tbey are frothing europhobes.
An interesting triple up on Skybet requestabet : Con 400-450, Lab 100-150, LD 10-19 at 12/1. Sounds about right to me.
Right price or right result? 12/1 looks pretty generous.
I'd say the chances of that specific spread happening is not the most likely, but not 12/1 unlikely.
I don't normally like to spread myself around different platforms but it's tempting,
Well quite, we should all pile on if it's such a dead cert.
1/8 are very decent odds on a candidate who is 20% or more ahead with two weeks to go.
Yep the £50 I didn't manage to get on at 20/1 for the Tories to be over 9.5 in Scotland (now down to 6/1) may as well do a little work for the next 2 weeks.
I'd be interested to know why so many of our regular posters are mournful that France looks set to pick a moderate centrist president who isn't fascist or batshit mental.
..........or why now we are leaving the EU so many want it to fail.
It's a British characteristic summed up by Gore Vidal 'Every time a friend succeeds something Inside me dies'
The map in the thread header seems to show that Marine Le Pen is the best supported politician in close to half of France. The leader of the National Front.
The electoral system will keep her from the Presidency but it will not change the way those French communities feel.
My few pennies were lost some time ago in the brief and forlorn hope that Juppe might win.
In my view, the real problem with Blair like 'moderate centrists' is that they often just stumble along managing rather than leading and mitigating rather than solving. I tend to be of the view that they turn a blind eye to certain issues and consequently allow them to exacerbate and eventually become much bigger ones.
I have come to the conclusion that it's not Corbyn's fault that Labour are doing so badly in the polls here, it's Labour in general. We have had two elections in EU member nations where the Socialists (i.e members of the same European grouping that Labour sit in) have crashed and burned. In the Netherlands the Labour grouping collapsed from 25% in 2012 to just 6% and now in France, they have collapsed from 29% to just 6% (an average drop in those two countries of -21%). I don't think that it will be that bad here in the UK for Labour, but the trend does appear to be continuing here in the UK. Socialists in Europe are being hammered.
I have come to the conclusion that it's not Corbyn's fault that Labour are doing so badly in the polls here, it's Labour in general. We have had two elections in EU member nations where the Socialists (i.e members of the same European grouping that Labour sit in) have crashed and burned. In the Netherlands the Labour grouping collapsed from 25% in 2012 to just 6% and now in France, they have collapsed from 29% to just 6% (an average drop in those two countries of -21%). I don't think that it will be that bad here in the UK for Labour, but the trend does appear to be continuing here in the UK. Socialists in Europe are being hammered.
The Liberal Democrat membership surge is about to take the party to a landmark 100,000 members – thanks to a staggering 12,500 joining since Theresa May announced the snap General Election last Tuesday.
Excellent news .... for shareholders in Auchentennach Fine Pies.
What amazes me is how so many of the politicos on here are completely out of touch with public opinion and get distressed when an election produces a result they weren't expecting.
The other amazing thing is that nobody on here has ever had a losing bet.
I did, a few days ago on the election date. I was F ING mortified.
I can also guarantee you however that several posters here - Tissue Price, Richard Nabavi, Alastair Meeks, @Gettingbetter and others will have returns on investments in political betting that are MILES higher than any horse racing tipster. If there were as many political betting events as horse races we'd be up millions.
No doubt some show a profit, I find it difficult to believe anybody makes money backing horses, I know a few who make money laying them.
Its interesting that "value" has become the buzzword in political betting as it did in racing 30 odd years ago when Pricewise was introduced. When most people say a bet is "value" they really mean they want it to happen. There are so many shrewdies operating the exchanges that prices are rarely out by much.
I have come to the conclusion that it's not Corbyn's fault that Labour are doing so badly in the polls here, it's Labour in general. We have had two elections in EU member nations where the Socialists (i.e members of the same European grouping that Labour sit in) have crashed and burned. In the Netherlands the Labour grouping collapsed from 25% in 2012 to just 6% and now in France, they have collapsed from 29% to just 6% (an average drop in those two countries of -21%). I don't think that it will be that bad here in the UK for Labour, but the trend does appear to be continuing here in the UK. Socialists in Europe are being hammered.
There is something in what you say but Corbyn is going to make things much worse. He's a disgraceful candidate to put up as Prime Minister.
The Socialists' problem is that their White working class supporters are moving right, and their metropolitan supporters are moving left.
We need to wait until the FR parliamentary elections before making judgments. This was a Presidential race, with the current (socialist) holder so disliked he couldn't run for second term.
. There are so many shrewdies operating the exchanges that prices are rarely out by much.
No, they really really are.
Le Pen was 6-1 for 30-40% a couple of days ago. That was staggeringly wrong.
On the horses, it is well possible to make a profit if you know enough. The problem following any tipster is that you need to get on at advised prices (If others are following the price might crash), and also ride out the inevitable variance. I followed @raceclear whilst it was a free service but it felt more like a second job and it was taxing with the inevitable losing streaks. They know their onions though, as does @isam when it comes to football. @Raceclear will be miles ahead, all their followers might not be though.
The Liberal Democrat membership surge is about to take the party to a landmark 100,000 members – thanks to a staggering 12,500 joining since Theresa May announced the snap General Election last Tuesday.
Good for them. Still a massive challenge ahead, but always good to see engagement (Corbyn's right about that) and even if they don't pound many pavements well done the people for responding to the lib dem wipeout if they didn't like it.
If not already mentioned, Norstat have started polling in the UK, for the Express. Their first poll puts the Conservatives ahead by 42/26%.
It's in @TSE e-mail spam folder along with thousands of requests from lady whip wielders in north west England.
I did post that poll the other night on PB.
We're not reading too much into that poll until we see tables given it is a new pollster and well it is The Express, who have a shocking record when reporting polls.
(Though the Mail on Sunday, wins this week's polling dunce award)
In my view, the real problem with Blair like 'moderate centrists' is that they often just stumble along managing rather than leading and mitigating rather than solving. I tend to be of the view that they turn a blind eye to certain issues and consequently allow them to exacerbate and eventually become much bigger ones.
Other than Blair, who do you think fits that description?
What amazes me is how so many of the politicos on here are completely out of touch with public opinion and get distressed when an election produces a result they weren't expecting.
The other amazing thing is that nobody on here has ever had a losing bet.
I did, a few days ago on the election date. I was F ING mortified.
I can also guarantee you however that several posters here - Tissue Price, Richard Nabavi, Alastair Meeks, @Gettingbetter and others will have returns on investments in political betting that are MILES higher than any horse racing tipster. If there were as many political betting events as horse races we'd be up millions.
I only started betting on politics in the past year. I've had 3 wins (Brexit, Trump, Stoke) and three losses (Copeland, Fillon, and Melenchon reaching the run off).
I did well in 2015 and especially on constituencies, then Brexit, Trump and the Italian referendum. Small losses in France and London Mayor.
I'd be interested to know why so many of our regular posters are mournful that France looks set to pick a moderate centrist president who isn't fascist or batshit mental.
..........or why now we are leaving the EU so many want it to fail.
It's a British characteristic summed up by Gore Vidal 'Every time a friend succeeds something Inside me dies'
The map in the thread header seems to show that Marine Le Pen is the best supported politician in close to half of France. The leader of the National Front.
The electoral system will keep her from the Presidency but it will not change the way those French communities feel.
My few pennies were lost some time ago in the brief and forlorn hope that Juppe might win.
In my view, the real problem with Blair like 'moderate centrists' is that they often just stumble along managing rather than leading and mitigating rather than solving. I tend to be of the view that they turn a blind eye to certain issues and consequently allow them to exacerbate and eventually become much bigger ones.
Well said, despite the protestations of Remainers the majority of people in this country want to reduce immigration which is why they voted Leave. All the wailing in the world doesn't change that.
1/8 is ridiculously generous . Le Pen has to get a large chunk of Melenchon and Fillon votes to win.
Indeed the 1.14 on Betfair is basically free money. There is no other way to describe it.
Of course, it will be closer than Chirac/Le Pen 2002. Yes many Fillon and Mélenchon supporters will not vote Macron. Yes Macron's champagne-quaffing victory party with celebrities and has-beens last night was stupid. But he will win, and easily.
If a policeman being shot by an islamist terrorist in Paris two days before the vote did not put Le Pen in front yesterday, I can't see how she has a chance in two weeks time.
Remember, the polls all show at least 20 points margins and they were very accurate last night.
If not already mentioned, Norstat have started polling in the UK, for the Express. Their first poll puts the Conservatives ahead by 42/26%.
It's in @TSE e-mail spam folder along with thousands of requests from lady whip wielders in north west England.
I did post that poll the other night on PB.
We're not reading too much into that poll until we see tables given it is a new pollster and well it is The Express, who have a shocking record when reporting polls.
(Though the Mail on Sunday, wins this week's polling dunce award)
I have come to the conclusion that it's not Corbyn's fault that Labour are doing so badly in the polls here, it's Labour in general. We have had two elections in EU member nations where the Socialists (i.e members of the same European grouping that Labour sit in) have crashed and burned. In the Netherlands the Labour grouping collapsed from 25% in 2012 to just 6% and now in France, they have collapsed from 29% to just 6% (an average drop in those two countries of -21%). I don't think that it will be that bad here in the UK for Labour, but the trend does appear to be continuing here in the UK. Socialists in Europe are being hammered.
There is something in what you say but Corbyn is going to make things much worse. He's a disgraceful candidate to put up as Prime Minister.
The Socialists' problem is that their White working class supporters are moving right, and their metropolitan supporters are moving left.
...as the Guardian article points out, May looks like she is trying to recapture the working class vote... Certainly Labour have chosen themselves in Jeremy Corbyn a leader who is direct from central casting as the perfect candidate to rile Middle England. Joining Labour and voting for Corbyn was described by George Osborne as 'the best £3 I ever spent'.
Well said, despite the protestations of Remainers the majority of people in this country want to reduce immigration which is why they voted Leave. All the wailing in the world doesn't change that.
Don't you mean despite the protestations of the Brexiteers, whose constant refrain has been that it's about 'control', not about immigration?
. There are so many shrewdies operating the exchanges that prices are rarely out by much.
No, they really really are.
Le Pen was 6-1 for 30-40% a couple of days ago. That was staggeringly wrong.
There are always exceptions which is why I said rarely not never. My point is few people have any concept of value, its a subjective thing, most simply bet on what they want or expect to happen irrespective of the price.
In my view, the real problem with Blair like 'moderate centrists' is that they often just stumble along managing rather than leading and mitigating rather than solving. I tend to be of the view that they turn a blind eye to certain issues and consequently allow them to exacerbate and eventually become much bigger ones.
Other than Blair, who do you think fits that description?
Most of them in the last twenty years. Turning a blind eye to issues is the breeding ground for nationalism and extremism.
The whole EU project over that time is also run on indecisive and fudged leadership.
I took the view, pre-referendum, that if we had voted Remain that we had to go into it properly - full integration, cooperation and harmonisation. It's the only way to make the thing work.
I have come to the conclusion that it's not Corbyn's fault that Labour are doing so badly in the polls here, it's Labour in general. We have had two elections in EU member nations where the Socialists (i.e members of the same European grouping that Labour sit in) have crashed and burned. In the Netherlands the Labour grouping collapsed from 25% in 2012 to just 6% and now in France, they have collapsed from 29% to just 6% (an average drop in those two countries of -21%). I don't think that it will be that bad here in the UK for Labour, but the trend does appear to be continuing here in the UK. Socialists in Europe are being hammered.
There is something in what you say but Corbyn is going to make things much worse. He's a disgraceful candidate to put up as Prime Minister.
The Socialists' problem is that their White working class supporters are moving right, and their metropolitan supporters are moving left.
Yes.
I do wonder how much social values are secondary influences of economic interests, actually, for the non political obsessives.
Professional middle classes see their economic interests best served by globalisation and internationalism, whilst working class voters see them as best served by the nation state.
If that ceased to be the case (either which way) how long would it be before the social values changed too?
I'd be interested to know why so many of our regular posters are mournful that France looks set to pick a moderate centrist president who isn't fascist or batshit mental.
..........or why now we are leaving the EU so many want it to fail.
It's a British characteristic summed up by Gore Vidal 'Every time a friend succeeds something Inside me dies'
It's such a British characteristic that we use a German word for it...
Actually based on the map above Le Pen won about 47 departements to Macron's 42 so if France had an electoral college system like the US and no runoff like the US she may well have won the electoral college as Trump did even if Macron, like Hillary, won the popular vote
Well said, despite the protestations of Remainers the majority of people in this country want to reduce immigration which is why they voted Leave. All the wailing in the world doesn't change that.
Don't you mean despite the protestations of the Brexiteers, whose constant refrain has been that it's about 'control', not about immigration?
The Brexiteers on here, of which there are a handful, talk about control. Millions of voters talk about immigration. This place is in no way representative of the electorate.
I'd be interested to know why so many of our regular posters are mournful that France looks set to pick a moderate centrist president who isn't fascist or batshit mental.
It's a shame that we aren't going to get the amusement of Le Pen vs Melanchon! Macron is the living embodiment of trendy metrosexual right-on chic. A gay Tony Blair with better suits. France has some real problems. He ain't gonna sort them. But, like Trudeau in Canada, the MSM will love him while his country continues to circle the pan. France basically needs a Maggie. Why is it is so seemingly impossible for them to elect a sensible centre-right non-loony non-shiney teeth candidate?
I took the view, pre-referendum, that if we had voted Remain that we had to go into it properly - full integration, cooperation and harmonisation. It's the only way to make the thing work.
If we had voted Remain that wouldn't have been an option. Cameron ruled out 'ever closer union' and said the UK would never join the Euro.
We've been paying the price for John Major's dithering 'wait and see' policy for far too long. Luckily that unhappy fudge has been decisively rejected so when public opinion swings back as it inevitably will, going 'all in' will have to be on the table. People might even trust a leader like May to be able make it work for Britain.
So how's this cohabitation thingy going to work for Macron, assuming he wins?
Is President Macron going to be as impotent as a eunuch?
Yes, so would Le Pen. The chances of serious reform coming from either is close to zero. It's probably why the leftist dirty tricks campaign focussed on Fillon, he was the only candidate who had any chance of actually making any changes to France.
One interesting little snippet from the POTFR election by our old friends in the Auld Aliiance, is that despite all the terrorist attacks in Paris over the past few years, Len Pen polled under 5% of the vote in the French capital.
In the Paris departement itself but then Hillary won Manhattan and Brooklyn by a landslide too as Remain did in inner London. In the outer suburbs of Paris Le Pen got close to her national score as Leave did in suburban outer London and Trump did in Queens and Staten Island
Good. I'm a fan of sticking to conventions if there is no obvious benefit to changing, but given this one is not even universally followed, they all should stand.
I'd be interested to know why so many of our regular posters are mournful that France looks set to pick a moderate centrist president who isn't fascist or batshit mental.
It's a shame that we aren't going to get the amusement of Le Pen vs Melanchon! Macron is the living embodiment of trendy metrosexual right-on chic. A gay Tony Blair with better suits. France has some real problems. He ain't gonna sort them. But, like Trudeau in Canada, the MSM will love him while his country continues to circle the pan. France basically needs a Maggie. Why is it is so seemingly impossible for them to elect a sensible centre-right non-loony non-shiney teeth candidate?
As I wonder through France's fifth largest city and see a vibrant cafe society with more museums art galleries statues and street art than you'd see anywhere in England outside London and an attractive healthy cultured population where the average waiter knows more about film and philosophy than 95% of the English
.......and compare it to Leeds where an obese population waddle around believing fine dining is an evening at Wetherspoons and culture is an hour with Jeremy Kyle I wonder where the French went wrong
I'd be interested to know why so many of our regular posters are mournful that France looks set to pick a moderate centrist president who isn't fascist or batshit mental.
It's a shame that we aren't going to get the amusement of Le Pen vs Melanchon! Macron is the living embodiment of trendy metrosexual right-on chic. A gay Tony Blair with better suits. France has some real problems. He ain't gonna sort them. But, like Trudeau in Canada, the MSM will love him while his country continues to circle the pan. France basically needs a Maggie. Why is it is so seemingly impossible for them to elect a sensible centre-right non-loony non-shiney teeth candidate?
"France basically needs" = "why don't they all think like me?"
I took the view, pre-referendum, that if we had voted Remain that we had to go into it properly - full integration, cooperation and harmonisation. It's the only way to make the thing work.
If we had voted Remain that wouldn't have been an option. Cameron ruled out 'ever closer union' and said the UK would never join the Euro.
We've been paying the price for John Major's dithering 'wait and see' policy for far too long. Luckily that unhappy fudge has been decisively rejected so when public opinion swings back as it inevitably will, going 'all in' will have to be on the table. People might even trust a leader like May to be able make it work for Britain.
We are not going back into the EU and certainly not the Eurozone, the single market is the most the British people may ultimately accept
I'd be interested to know why so many of our regular posters are mournful that France looks set to pick a moderate centrist president who isn't fascist or batshit mental.
..........or why now we are leaving the EU so many want it to fail.
It's a British characteristic summed up by Gore Vidal 'Every time a friend succeeds something Inside me dies'
Goodness your anti-British stereotyping is is quite grotesque. The result so far is as good as one could have hoped but the 5th Republic has a long way to go. The reforms are needed, let's hope he can deliver.
I do like this idea that the Speaker should be elected, by MPs, as MP for the Palace of Westminster. Election to be held at the start of every Parliament.
So how's this cohabitation thingy going to work for Macron, assuming he wins?
Is President Macron going to be as impotent as a eunuch?
Yes, so would Le Pen. The chances of serious reform coming from either is close to zero. It's probably why the leftist dirty tricks campaign focussed on Fillon, he was the only candidate who had any chance of actually making any changes to France.
I think Les Republicains may win the legislative elections though which they will now focus on as will PS with neither having a candidate in the runoff
Delighted to see Macron come through the first round and top the poll. I hope he will see off Le Pen in the second round.
As for the French conservatives and socialists, they now have time to muse on what went wrong and why. For the former, this should have been a penalty kick (to use the phrase). With the socialists in disarray, all they needed was a coherent candidate who would get into the run off with Le Pen.
Instead, they chose Fillon and then stayed with him even as his campaign unravelled. It was as if the British Conservatives had decided to stick with IDS up to the 2005 election or Labour had to fight a GE under Jeremy Corbyn...
The socialists will rebound from the disastrous Hollande years in time and the forthcoming legislative elections will be fascinating to see if En Marche can become more than a candidate.
@Patrick, why are you so obsessed with Macron's sexuality?
It's rubbish anyway, isn't it? It's a gossipy insinuation often drawn whe people are married without children - but given that his wife is 24 years older than him, the biological explanation should more than suffice.
. There are so many shrewdies operating the exchanges that prices are rarely out by much.
No, they really really are.
Le Pen was 6-1 for 30-40% a couple of days ago. That was staggeringly wrong.
There are always exceptions which is why I said rarely not never. My point is few people have any concept of value, its a subjective thing, most simply bet on what they want or expect to happen irrespective of the price.
I don't disagree.
Value in betting is a complicated (and fuzzy) concept, misunderstood and misused by a lot of casual punters.
One of the better ways to measure your ability to recognize value is whether the odds shorten after you place your bets (regardless of whether the bet eventually wins). One reason bookies are fairly sanguine offering BOG on horse races is that they don't mind boosting winnings for punters who take odds which lengthen before the off.
Those punters aren't sharp, so are likely to lose in the long run.
I have come to the conclusion that it's not Corbyn's fault that Labour are doing so badly in the polls here, it's Labour in general. We have had two elections in EU member nations where the Socialists (i.e members of the same European grouping that Labour sit in) have crashed and burned. In the Netherlands the Labour grouping collapsed from 25% in 2012 to just 6% and now in France, they have collapsed from 29% to just 6% (an average drop in those two countries of -21%). I don't think that it will be that bad here in the UK for Labour, but the trend does appear to be continuing here in the UK. Socialists in Europe are being hammered.
There is something in what you say but Corbyn is going to make things much worse. He's a disgraceful candidate to put up as Prime Minister.
The Socialists' problem is that their White working class supporters are moving right, and their metropolitan supporters are moving left.
Yes.
I do wonder how much social values are secondary influences of economic interests, actually, for the non political obsessives.
Professional middle classes see their economic interests best served by globalisation and internationalism, whilst working class voters see them as best served by the nation state.
If that ceased to be the case (either which way) how long would it be before the social values changed too?
Canvassing amongst the £m-plus houses over the weekend I can tell you that the left, Corbyn-supporting, metropolitan, champagne socialist is far from a dying breed.
Comments
The other amazing thing is that nobody on here has ever had a losing bet.
Can't see Le Pen winning this, but not long to find out. Interesting lack of a central ground, with one candidate being a full-blown federalist and the other wanting to leave the single currency.
Fillon should've stepped down. Daft cock.
Mr. Choose, if you want to observe some losing bets, go to my F1 blog and check the 2016 season
I can also guarantee you however that several posters here - Tissue Price, Richard Nabavi, Alastair Meeks, @Gettingbetter and others will have returns on investments in political betting that are MILES higher than any horse racing tipster. If there were as many political betting events as horse races we'd be up millions.
(As illustrated by RochdalePioneers below there's a tricky doorstep message.)
Regarding transfers, indeed EM candidates could be transfer friendly... if they reach the second round. And therefore the key question will be the choice of candidates. EM has only announced 14 candidates so far (out of 577) but has indicated he would support candidates in all constituencies.
What is not clear yet is if EM will support some current MPs if they ask to join the movement.
Quite a number of socialists MPs would certainly like to do so but it would be a massive problem to be seen as a recycling outfit for socialists.
At this stage my best guess would be that neither of the traditional blocks will get a clear majority, as the FN will reach the 15 seats threshold for an official political group in the Assembly.
A lot will depend on the government Macron would name in two weeks time. It is largely symbolical as no law can be passed before the Assembly election but the choice will have a very large impact on the campaign.
My guess is that he will avoid putting too many socialists in government and try to have at least two or thee big name centrists.
I'm pretty sure Andy would have won the mayoral election anyway, but the length of This campaign coupled with the incapacity of the Labour campaign is going to ensure that she has long coattails
Macron is the living embodiment of trendy metrosexual right-on chic. A gay Tony Blair with better suits. France has some real problems. He ain't gonna sort them. But, like Trudeau in Canada, the MSM will love him while his country continues to circle the pan. France basically needs a Maggie. Why is it is so seemingly impossible for them to elect a sensible centre-right non-loony non-shiney teeth candidate?
Most of my bankroll currently invested in seat bets - including a pony on the LDs in Richmond Park at 25/1...
I don't normally like to spread myself around different platforms but it's tempting,
The electoral system will keep her from the Presidency but it will not change the way those French communities feel.
My few pennies were lost some time ago in the brief and forlorn hope that Juppe might win.
In my view, the real problem with Blair like 'moderate centrists' is that they often just stumble along managing rather than leading and mitigating rather than solving. I tend to be of the view that they turn a blind eye to certain issues and consequently allow them to exacerbate and eventually become much bigger ones.
http://labourlist.org/2017/04/diane-abbott-corbyn-is-labours-best-hope-of-reaching-downing-street/
There is something in what you say but Corbyn is going to make things much worse. He's a disgraceful candidate to put up as Prime Minister.
It matches my forecast, and I had an unexpected win on skybet on an election this year, so have stuck on a purple drinking voucher.
Thank you Mrs May ....
Its interesting that "value" has become the buzzword in political betting as it did in racing 30 odd years ago when Pricewise was introduced. When most people say a bet is "value" they really mean they want it to happen. There are so many shrewdies operating the exchanges that prices are rarely out by much.
Le Pen was 6-1 for 30-40% a couple of days ago. That was staggeringly wrong.
On the horses, it is well possible to make a profit if you know enough. The problem following any tipster is that you need to get on at advised prices (If others are following the price might crash), and also ride out the inevitable variance. I followed @raceclear whilst it was a free service but it felt more like a second job and it was taxing with the inevitable losing streaks. They know their onions though, as does @isam when it comes to football. @Raceclear will be miles ahead, all their followers might not be though.
We're not reading too much into that poll until we see tables given it is a new pollster and well it is The Express, who have a shocking record when reporting polls.
(Though the Mail on Sunday, wins this week's polling dunce award)
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/855903335936819200
Of course, it will be closer than Chirac/Le Pen 2002. Yes many Fillon and Mélenchon supporters will not vote Macron. Yes Macron's champagne-quaffing victory party with celebrities and has-beens last night was stupid.
But he will win, and easily.
If a policeman being shot by an islamist terrorist in Paris two days before the vote did not put Le Pen in front yesterday, I can't see how she has a chance in two weeks time.
Remember, the polls all show at least 20 points margins and they were very accurate last night.
Certainly Labour have chosen themselves in Jeremy Corbyn a leader who is direct from central casting as the perfect candidate to rile Middle England. Joining Labour and voting for Corbyn was described by George Osborne as 'the best £3 I ever spent'.
Is President Macron going to be as impotent as a eunuch?
The whole EU project over that time is also run on indecisive and fudged leadership.
I took the view, pre-referendum, that if we had voted Remain that we had to go into it properly - full integration, cooperation and harmonisation. It's the only way to make the thing work.
She put her own selfish needs ahead of the greater good of the party and the country.
I do wonder how much social values are secondary influences of economic interests, actually, for the non political obsessives.
Professional middle classes see their economic interests best served by globalisation and internationalism, whilst working class voters see them as best served by the nation state.
If that ceased to be the case (either which way) how long would it be before the social values changed too?
I usually try to place and forget, then check back later. It saves (makes!) money in the long term by not laying off at poor value prices.
Betfair trading is a bit different but if you can get on with traditional bookies that's probably all most people need for the GE.
Ozzie gone and now forgotten by his former disciples. Last weeks fish and chip paper it seems.
Was one of my all time favourite bets
*I'll accept SLAB MPs v Panadas instead
https://twitter.com/BucksLibDems/status/856397175110197248
https://twitter.com/SarahLowesLD/status/856220472110972930
We've been paying the price for John Major's dithering 'wait and see' policy for far too long. Luckily that unhappy fudge has been decisively rejected so when public opinion swings back as it inevitably will, going 'all in' will have to be on the table. People might even trust a leader like May to be able make it work for Britain.
Perhaps the Conservatives should stand a candidate against Bercow seeing how much he is liked by some of the MPs ?
As I wonder through France's fifth largest city and see a vibrant cafe society with more museums art galleries statues and street art than you'd see anywhere in England outside London and an attractive healthy cultured population where the average waiter knows more about film and philosophy than 95% of the English
.......and compare it to Leeds where an obese population waddle around believing fine dining is an evening at Wetherspoons and culture is an hour with Jeremy Kyle I wonder where the French went wrong
Not that I necessarily disagree with you.
As for my fealty to Osborne, I'm Cameroon/Osbornite until the very end, it's like the mafia, the oath lasts until death.
We've merely gone to exile, like the Obi Wan and Yoda after Palpatine became Chancellor.
Or like when Michael was sent to Sicily in The Godfather.
We will be back.
Delighted to see Macron come through the first round and top the poll. I hope he will see off Le Pen in the second round.
As for the French conservatives and socialists, they now have time to muse on what went wrong and why. For the former, this should have been a penalty kick (to use the phrase). With the socialists in disarray, all they needed was a coherent candidate who would get into the run off with Le Pen.
Instead, they chose Fillon and then stayed with him even as his campaign unravelled. It was as if the British Conservatives had decided to stick with IDS up to the 2005 election or Labour had to fight a GE under Jeremy Corbyn...
The socialists will rebound from the disastrous Hollande years in time and the forthcoming legislative elections will be fascinating to see if En Marche can become more than a candidate.
Value in betting is a complicated (and fuzzy) concept, misunderstood and misused by a lot of casual punters.
One of the better ways to measure your ability to recognize value is whether the odds shorten after you place your bets (regardless of whether the bet eventually wins). One reason bookies are fairly sanguine offering BOG on horse races is that they don't mind boosting winnings for punters who take odds which lengthen before the off.
Those punters aren't sharp, so are likely to lose in the long run.
I was just wondering if Conservatives would see a vote for the yellows there as a way of getting rid of their turbulent Speaker.