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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The geography of Emmanuel Macron’s first round victory
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The geography of Emmanuel Macron’s first round victory
As it has turned out the polling in the French presidential election has proved to be pretty accurate. Macron has, as I write, 23.9% of the first round votes with Le Pen on 21.4%.
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An independent watchdog has strongly criticised the treatment by the NHS and police of victims of sexual assault.
The inspector of constabulary (HMICS) said services offered to some victims were "unacceptable."
The review said they lagged behind the rest of the UK, with many victims being examined in police stations.
The Scottish government said it was establishing a group to improve the responses to victims of rape or sexual assault.
'establishing a group'.......well, that's ok then. Meanwhile, back to the child benefit question which the SNP could do something about (if its so evil) but has chosen to complain about Westminster instead.....
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-39436647
Data from the British Election Study suggest Conservatives are piling up votes in Labour-held seats.....
.....There are, however, clear warning signs for Labour that the party may under-perform in seats its current miserable levels in (reported) vote share.
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/warning-signs-for-labour-50b6cd1501d8
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/24/equation-two-unknowns-newspapers-reacted-tomacron-le-pen-wins/
The Swiss have the best headline Une équation à deux inconnues
http://www.theonion.com/article/berkeley-campus-lockdown-after-loose-pages-wall-st-55815
Julia Hartley-BrewerVerified account @JuliaHB1
French politicians end speeches with "Long live the Republic, long live France". Yanks do "God bless America". What is the Brit equivalent?
(((StephenDaisley)))Verified account @JournoStephen 7h7 hours ago
(((StephenDaisley))) Retweeted Julia Hartley-Brewer
"Anyone other than Michael Crick have a question...?"
The fact that during this blip we made the catastrophic decision to cast ourselves out from the most attractive and politically advanced institution in the world is a catastrophy but one that can hopefully be reversed soetime in the future
(((StephenDaisley)))Verified account @JournoStephen Apr 23
Replying to @JournoStephen
Third, the SNP attack machine makes the GOP look like Rebecca of Sunnybrook Farm. @RuthDavidsonMSP is in for six weeks of sheer ugliness. 4/
(((StephenDaisley)))Verified account @JournoStephen Apr 23
Replying to @JournoStephen @RuthDavidsonMSP
Finally, though, @RuthDavidsonMSP 2017 isn't @RuthDavidsonMSP 2011. The Nats have an actual fight on their hands. Let battle be joined. 5/5
The betting markets were not.
It seems that for the while it will be profitable not to follow the money.
The SNP attempt to try to piggyback another Indy Referendum on the back of the Brexit result has backfired in Scotland, and it might yet see the Libdems in Scotland struggle to be seen as a clear alternative to the SNP on Independence while the UK wide party campaigns for another EU Referendum in the hope of overturning the original result.
One interesting little snippet from the POTFR election by our old friends in the Auld Aliiance, is that despite all the terrorist attacks in Paris over the past few years, Len Pen polled under 5% of the vote in the French capital.
I'm not sure whether or not they would be that bothered by the mass rejection off their fellow MPs. I'm almost certain that they won't be that bothered about ruinous defeat at the polls. Far more concerned about establishing permanent ascendancy in the Labour Party and turning it into a lobby group for their ideas, I would've thought.
And now, an anecdote for the day:
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/856103679157514240
Reminder: the Labour Party now has 44 days left to convince the voters of England and Wales that a Far Left minority Government, led by Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott and Thornberry, and propped up by the votes of Scottish Nationalists, is something to be celebrated.
I'm not too sure how many staff the Dear Leader Nuttall employs and you lack of faith in the Duke of Stoke's ability to win all 650 seats will surely ensure your appointment with an artillery piece is not long in the offing ....
https://medium.com/@thegrugq/dont-info-op-until-you-see-the-whites-of-their-eyes-55624258f120
A bit strong perhaps but how the French conservatives managed to lose this election is certainly a wonder to behold ....
Aside from a few enthusiasts the consensus appears to be 'least worst option'
Now, as long as Le Pen doesn't win, this will be my best ever betting result.
Still, my CLP Exec met last night and mapped out our campaign. Our rebuttal to the Corbyn issue on the doorstep when raised is simple.
"Jeremy will not become Prime Minister because we aren't going to win this election. But we need as many Labour MPs as we can to provide robust opposition under a new leader so that Theresa May doesn't have a blank cheque to do whatever she likes to you". Remove Jezbollah from contention and we may have a chance...
1) Jezza will go.
2) That if he does that the replacement won't be as bad, or worse.
3) That Labour is capable of a 'robust opposition'.
You're going to be losing many MPs in a few weeks. Some of these will be dross of the kind all parties have, although some will have been the party's future. Worse, there will be good candidates facing the electorate for the first time who won't enter parliament.
I don't think a post-ge Labour party will be any good at 'robust opposition', except to itself.
On your second point, while the Jezziah will undoubtedly magnify the scale of your defeat, given the significant problems Labour faces - zero economic credibility, acute shortage of political talent, lack of funds, a withering demographic base, a trade union movement in apparently terminal decline - I am not quite sure why you think any alternative would do better just by not being him?
I don't think Labour are doomed, but one of the big problems with Corbyn and to a lesser extent Miliband was that the leadership's ineptitude allows people to blame them for the disaster, rather than taking a long hard look at Labour's situation and trying to correct it. Much the problem the Tories had under Hague and IDS, indeed.
An interesting triple up on Skybet requestabet : Con 400-450, Lab 100-150, LD 10-19 at 12/1. Sounds about right to me.
Matthew d'Ancona
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/24/brexit-may-working-class-election?CMP=twt_gu
https://twitter.com/MikeGapes/status/856245815337267202
So I would be careful about saying the policy offering is OK. It seems more than likely it will be shredded on close analysis, however attractive in theory.
Labour's killer isn't Corbyn; it's the fundamental that its business model is broken. To fund an overblown public sector, it burdens the private sector with more than is sustainable. Every time it tries the same thing - every time, the economy tanks and the poorest in society are the ones who get hit hardest.
And it's almost as if these folks have noticed.....
- he sweeps the traditional core geography of the socialists: South-West, Centre-West, Bretagne (the Le Drian support was a huge factor), rural Auvergne departements, easter inner suburbs of Paris. His squeezing of Hamon was extremely succesful.
- but he also performs very well in traditional centre-right areas like Normandy, Vendee, Southern massif Central, and the western inner suburbs and all outer suburbs of Paris. This is where Fillon lost the election. He got the core right-wing vote but not the more christian-democrat, centre-right areas.
What is not visible on this map is that Macron also did well in the North-East. Le Pen had huge scores as expected but Macron was second in many places and once again outscored Fillon in former centre-right bastions like Alsace or Picardy.
Mélenchon got massive scores in metropolitan areas and overseas territories but his failure to beat Macron in more rural areas prevented him from reaching 20%
I haven't detected that.
And what if my labour candidate is the next Jeremy Corbyn - it'd be saving up trouble for the future.
Which might include a little mild trolling of their political opponents.
It's a British characteristic summed up by Gore Vidal 'Every time a friend succeeds something Inside me dies'