The French centre-right just fucked this up. They should have walked it. Tsk.
Chortle.
Why are you chortling? Fillon (sans scandals) would have been best for France, economically, and therefore best for the French people. And he might have won the Assembly, he could have pressed through real reform.
I fear Macron will be a grave disappointment, and he doesn't even have a proper party, implying paralysis and further stagnation. As a supposed rightwinger, your delight is therefore a bit mystifying.
This reminds me of the US Presidential election when Trump was leading in the popular vote and you could get similar odds, even though it was clear that Clinton was going to end up ahead.
@afneil 2m2 minutes ago More TV coverage concentrating on exit polls rather than actual vote. After 20m votes counted, Le Pen on 25%, Macron 22%. Not representative?
France 24's projections are getting more and more 'tight', with the spread for Le Pen now just 0.3% wide. I assume they know what they're doing.
No, those were the estimates from the pollsters based off the sampling.
When you've lost every single time for the last three years any win is worth celebrating. So tonight I am a very happy boy.
Yes, likewise other than on Brexit. I'm happy because I'm a socialist and despite the present French political climate the right has been denied the top job once again. Yes Le Pen is into the 2nd round but she's facing the opponent she really wanted to avoid, so in effect it's a defeat for her.
Though I feel absolutely vindicated in having taken out and advocated here a Le Pen - Melenchon run off bet at odds of 66/1, which clearly had value since based on the exit poll it would have taken only a 2% swing to become a reality. That said I'm still green if Macron wins which he will.
If the Greens followed through with their own logic then they'd defend Brighton Pavilion, challenge Labour in Bristol West (where they're well-supported and the Tories are pretty weak,) and not bother anywhere else. Would save a tremendous amount of time, money and effort, and allow them to donate the rest of their voters to Labour or the Liberal Democrats.
If the Greens were a serious political party and not a kind of cod socialist-environmentalist hobby outfit, for Waitrose-shopping yummy mummies who just want to feel smug and morally superior to their neighbours, then they would continue to stand candidates everywhere. Try to build support, overtake their rivals through the force of convincing argument and good policy, and win real power that way.
But they aren't.
Did a Green beat you up as a child? I don't recall seeing you so vehemently against a party before.
Le Pen now ahead in 19 departements, Macron ahead in 14, Fillon in 2 and Melenchon in 2, Le Pen is sweeping the west of France and the northeast of France, Macron leading in Brittany and the Northwest and the Southwest http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/?p=compare
@afneil 2m2 minutes ago More TV coverage concentrating on exit polls rather than actual vote. After 20m votes counted, Le Pen on 25%, Macron 22%. Not representative?
If Neil's implication is right there is serious money to be made on backing Le Pen for Round One – she's available at about 2/1. I'm not (yet) moved.
So I google 'Macron gay sub relationship rumours' and got only articles dated either 7 or 8 February 2017. Was this a 24-hour story? If so, I presume it has no validity and hence holds no dangers for Macron.
It's very interesting that the YouGov Brexit right/wrong poll is level pegging despite the massive approvals for May and signs of a landslide on the way.
It emphasises that the Brexit vote was driven as much by discontent with the style of domestic politics than by anyone's views of the EU.
The utter rejection of Corbyn's brand of post-imperial cringe politics will be another step on the road to us coming to terms with the reality of being a normal, mainstream European country that belongs in the political structures of normal, mainstream Europe.
The French centre-right just fucked this up. They should have walked it. Tsk.
Chortle.
Why are you chortling? Fillon (sans scandals) would have been best for France, economically, and therefore best for the French people. And he might have won the Assembly, he could have pressed through real reform.
I fear Macron will be a grave disappointment, and he doesn't even have a proper party, implying paralysis and further stagnation. As a supposed rightwinger, your delight is therefore a bit mystifying.
I thought Boba was a committed lefty ?
He's a French Lefty - in theory, but not in practice.....you should have heard him go on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and when someone (himself) on well over average income had their child benefit taken away.....
Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.
Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)
In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
The polls have been pretty accurate in France so far, and they predict a 2:1 win for Macron in round two. That may change, but tonight is a great night for Macron, and an OK night for Le Pen. Remember, just two weeks ago there wasn't a single poll that didn't have Le Pen in front.
But Macron will only win because he's facing the still-tainted Le Pen.
He got 24%, at best. It's not some crowning endorsement or stunning triumph.
The French are confused, conflicted and unhappy, and this is reflected in the wild spread of votes.
That said I hear Macron is a mild Anglophile, and pro-business, so he might be OK for Brexit.
Macron will slaughter Le Pen in the second round.
He is less radical than Fillon in his planned economic reforms, but is inclined in the right direction, and much more likely to bring a majority of tbe country with him.
The assembly is likely to be pro reform, with quite a Republican and centrist majority.
Even now Le Pen is polling 35-40% in the runoff against Macron, Chirac slaughtered Jean Marie Le Pen, Macron may comfortably beat Marine Le Pen but he will not slaughter her
She She may go forward in the next four years, she may go back. I think it largely depends on whether Macron is able to push through the reforms that France needs. (And it also depends on MLP not being deposed by MMLP.)
The significant fact is that including minor candidates, nearly half the vote went to far right or far left candidates. We were only a few per cent away from a Le Pen/Melenchon run off. Next time, we may get it.
Next time the tide of populism will have receded. Macron will be a hugely significant President.
Him and his political party, of course.......
En Mrche now has 250 000 members and plans candidates planned for all Assembly seats.
A lot of political novices and defectors, but formidable in one year.
The French centre-right just fucked this up. They should have walked it. Tsk.
Chortle.
Why are you chortling? Fillon (sans scandals) would have been best for France, economically, and therefore best for the French people. And he might have won the Assembly, he could have pressed through real reform.
I fear Macron will be a grave disappointment, and he doesn't even have a proper party, implying paralysis and further stagnation. As a supposed rightwinger, your delight is therefore a bit mystifying.
I thought Boba was a committed lefty ?
He's a French Lefty - in theory, but not in practice.....you should have heard him go on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and when someone (himself) on well over average income had their child benefit taken away.....
So far Le Pen is basically sweeping the departements Sarkozy won in 2012 bar Mayenne for Fillon and Macron is winning most of those won by Hollande but Le Pen is leading in the Somme and Charente-Maritime which Hollande won and Melenchon in the Dordogne which Hollande won http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/?p=compare
She's polling about 4% higher than in 2012 almost everywhere, which is why the forecasts for her to get about 22% sound pretty much exactly right.
I'd put it closer to 6 - she's up 8-10 in parts of NE France.
This reminds me of the US Presidential election when Trump was leading in the popular vote and you could get similar odds, even though it was clear that Clinton was going to end up ahead.
It's odd how MLP is sticking at 5 despite all the results so far.
The one thing we need is a website with actual vote totals counted so far for the whole of France and by department. Of course that's the one thing that doesn't seem to exist. The same thing happens at UK general elections: there's never a page with running vote totals.
So I google 'Macron gay sub relationship rumours' and got only articles dated either 7 or 8 February 2017. Was this a 24-hour story? If so, I presume it has no validity and hence holds no dangers for Macron.
I heard lots of juicy gossip about Macron when I was in Paris last month (with some well-connected people).
There is a chance it will harm him, at some point. I shan't repeat it on here, to spare OGH les lawyers.
That is the Russian line, they do seem a little obsessed by gays.
Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.
Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)
In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
The polls have been pretty accurate in France so far, and they predict a 2:1 win for Macron in round two. That may change, but tonight is a great night for Macron, and an OK night for Le Pen. Remember, just two weeks ago there wasn't a single poll that didn't have Le Pen in front.
But Macron will only win because he's facing the still-tainted Le Pen.
He got 24%, at best. It's not some crowning endorsement or stunning triumph.
The French are confused, conflicted and unhappy, and this is reflected in the wild spread of votes.
That said I hear Macron is a mild Anglophile, and pro-business, so he might be OK for Brexit.
Macron will slaughter Le Pen in the second round.
He is less radical than Fillon in his planned economic reforms, but is inclined in the right direction, and much more likely to bring a majority of tbe country with him.
The assembly is likely to be pro reform, with quite a Republican and centrist majority.
Even now Le Pen is polling 35-40% in the rul not slaughter her
P.)
The significant fact is that including minor candidates, nearly half the vote went to far right or far left candidates. We were only a few per cent away from a Le Pen/Melenchon run off. Next time, we may get it.
Next time the tide of populism will have receded. Macron will be a hugely significant President.
Him and his political party, of course.......
En Mrche now has 250 000 members and plans candidates planned for all Assembly seats.
A lot of political novices and defectors, but formidable in one year.
He deserves plenty of credit for that. Whatever the opposition he faces, and whether many end up disappointed if he turns out to be a blank screen for people to project on, he's had a fine achievement, and one can hope, a decent presidency awaits.
So far Le Pen is basically sweeping the departements Sarkozy won in 2012 bar Mayenne for Fillon and Macron is winning most of those won by Hollande but Le Pen is leading in the Somme and Charente-Maritime which Hollande won and Melenchon in the Dordogne which Hollande won http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/?p=compare
She's polling about 4% higher than in 2012 almost everywhere, which is why the forecasts for her to get about 22% sound pretty much exactly right.
She is still winning more departements than Macron though, it could be close for winner of the first round
The French centre-right just fucked this up. They should have walked it. Tsk.
Chortle.
Why are you chortling? Fillon (sans scandals) would have been best for France, economically, and therefore best for the French people. And he might have won the Assembly, he could have pressed through real reform.
I fear Macron will be a grave disappointment, and he doesn't even have a proper party, implying paralysis and further stagnation. As a supposed rightwinger, your delight is therefore a bit mystifying.
The same people who are so gleeful today were gleeful five years ago when Hollande won - with big predictions that his victory would bring a centre-left resurgence across Europe and, in particular, would be emulated by an EdM led Labour government.
Instead France has shifted rightwards and to the extremes and the French socialists have just suffered a humiliating defeat.
Ed Miliband plans a new Europe with François Hollande Ed Miliband has agreed to work with the new Socialist President of France to “tilt” Europe away from austerity.
Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.
Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)
In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
The polls have been pretty accurate in France so far, and they predict a 2:1 win for Macron in round two. That may change, but tonight is a great night for Macron, and an OK night for Le Pen. Remember, just two weeks ago there wasn't a single poll that didn't have Le Pen in front.
But Macron will only win because he's facing the still-tainted Le Pen.
He got 24%, at best. It's not some crowning endorsement or stunning triumph.
The French are confused, conflicted and unhappy, and this is reflected in the wild spread of votes.
That said I hear Macron is a mild Anglophile, and pro-business, so he might be OK for Brexit.
Macron will slaughter Le Pen in the second round.
He is less radical than Fillon in his planned economic reforms, but is inclined in the right direction, and much more likely to bring a majority of tbe country with him.
The assembly is likely to be pro reform, with quite a Republican and centrist majority.
Even now Le Pen is polling 35-40% in the runoff against Macron, Chirac slaughtered Jean Marie Le Pen, Macron may comfortably beat Marine Le Pen but he will not slaughter her
She She may go forward in the next four years, she may go back. I think it largely depends on whether Macron is able to push through the reforms that France needs. (And it also depends on MLP not being deposed by MMLP.)
The significant fact is that including minor candidates, nearly half the vote went to far right or far left candidates. We were only a few per cent away from a Le Pen/Melenchon run off. Next time, we may get it.
Next time the tide of populism will have receded. Macron will be a hugely significant President.
Him and his political party, of course.......
En Mrche now has 250 000 members and plans candidates planned for all Assembly seats.
A lot of political novices and defectors, but formidable in one year.
The French centre-right just fucked this up. They should have walked it. Tsk.
Chortle.
Why are you chortling? Fillon (sans scandals) would have been best for France, economically, and therefore best for the French people. And he might have won the Assembly, he could have pressed through real reform.
I fear Macron will be a grave disappointment, and he doesn't even have a proper party, implying paralysis and further stagnation. As a supposed rightwinger, your delight is therefore a bit mystifying.
I thought Boba was a committed lefty ?
He certainly should be... committed.
Can someone tell me what I have done to deserve this, ce soir? Sean calls me a 'supposed rightwinger' You call for me to me slung into an asylum. Carlotta picks me up on opposing a change to the tax and benefits system... five years ago. Les autres??
@afneil 2m2 minutes ago More TV coverage concentrating on exit polls rather than actual vote. After 20m votes counted, Le Pen on 25%, Macron 22%. Not representative?
Has anyone found a website that has a map AND a table?
It's very interesting that the YouGov Brexit right/wrong poll is level pegging despite the massive approvals for May and signs of a landslide on the way.
It emphasises that the Brexit vote was driven as much by discontent with the style of domestic politics than by anyone's views of the EU.
The utter rejection of Corbyn's brand of post-imperial cringe politics will be another step on the road to us coming to terms with the reality of being a normal, mainstream European country that belongs in the political structures of normal, mainstream Europe.
Worth watching - very marginal Lab seat majority 274 over Con. Haq backed Corbyn. UKIP polled above Greens by 85 votes. Will LDs want to back her or not?
The French centre-right just fucked this up. They should have walked it. Tsk.
Chortle.
Why are you chortling? Fillon (sans scandals) would have been best for France, economically, and therefore best for the French people. And he might have won the Assembly, he could have pressed through real reform.
I fear Macron will be a grave disappointment, and he doesn't even have a proper party, implying paralysis and further stagnation. As a supposed rightwinger, your delight is therefore a bit mystifying.
I thought Boba was a committed lefty ?
He's a French Lefty - in theory, but not in practice.....you should have heard him go on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and when someone (himself) on well over average income had their child benefit taken away.....
The one thing we need is a website with actual vote totals counted so far for the whole of France and by department. Of course that's the one thing that doesn't seem to exist. The same thing happens at UK general elections: there's never a page with running vote totals.
So I google 'Macron gay sub relationship rumours' and got only articles dated either 7 or 8 February 2017. Was this a 24-hour story? If so, I presume it has no validity and hence holds no dangers for Macron.
Given that the French (rightly) largely consider sex a private matter – who gives a fuck?
So far Le Pen is basically sweeping the departements Sarkozy won in 2012 bar Mayenne for Fillon and Macron is winning most of those won by Hollande but Le Pen is leading in the Somme and Charente-Maritime which Hollande won and Melenchon in the Dordogne which Hollande won http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/?p=compare
She's polling about 4% higher than in 2012 almost everywhere, which is why the forecasts for her to get about 22% sound pretty much exactly right.
She is still winning more departements than Macron though, it could be close for winner of the first round
Macron 24.0
Le Pen 21.7
Is latest forecast here www.thelocal.fr/20170423/interactive-map-of-the-2017-french-presidential-election
@afneil 2m2 minutes ago More TV coverage concentrating on exit polls rather than actual vote. After 20m votes counted, Le Pen on 25%, Macron 22%. Not representative?
If Neil's implication is right there is serious money to be made on backing Le Pen for Round One – she's available at about 2/1. I'm not (yet) moved.
Half the votes now counted. She's still ahead by nearly two percent.
with half the vote in: LE PEN AT 24.13%, MACRON AT 22.42%: INTERIOR MINISTRY AT 9:48PM: BBG
Macron will win. Smaller (hickier) communes are declaring first.
So I google 'Macron gay sub relationship rumours' and got only articles dated either 7 or 8 February 2017. Was this a 24-hour story? If so, I presume it has no validity and hence holds no dangers for Macron.
Given that the French (rightly) largely consider sex a private matter – who gives a fuck?
Again, it would not be a question of it being private, it would have been if it was secret and hidden. I don't give a crap either way, but someone being private in their own affairs is different than someone taking steps to conceal those affairs, because if you actively conceal one thing you might be concealing something else, something more significant. Though it seems to have been baseless either way.
Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.
Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)
In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
The polls have been pretty accurate in France so far, and they predict a 2:1 win for Macron in round two. That may change, but tonight is a great night for Macron, and an OK night for Le Pen. Remember, just two weeks ago there wasn't a single poll that didn't have Le Pen in front.
Macron will slaughter Le Pen in the second round.
He is less radical than Fillon in his planned economic reforms, but is inclined in the right direction, and much more likely to bring a majority of tbe country with him.
The assembly is likely to be pro reform, with quite a Republican and centrist majority.
en, Macron may comfortably beat Marine Le Pen but he will not slaughter her
She
The significant fact is that including minor candidates, nearly half the vote went to far right or far left candidates. We were only a few per cent away from a Le Pen/Melenchon run off. Next time, we may get it.
Next time the tide of populism will have receded. Macron will be a hugely significant President.
Him and his political party, of course.......
En Mrche now has 250 000 members and plans candidates planned for all Assembly seats.
A lot of political novices and defectors, but formidable in one year.
Lets see how they do!
What's the inside view from the May household on M. Macron?
So far Le Pen is basically sweeping the departements Sarkozy won in 2012 bar Mayenne for Fillon and Macron is winning most of those won by Hollande but Le Pen is leading in the Somme and Charente-Maritime which Hollande won and Melenchon in the Dordogne which Hollande won http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/?p=compare
She's polling about 4% higher than in 2012 almost everywhere, which is why the forecasts for her to get about 22% sound pretty much exactly right.
She is still winning more departements than Macron though, it could be close for winner of the first round
Macron 24.0
Le Pen 21.7
Is latest forecast here www.thelocal.fr/20170423/interactive-map-of-the-2017-french-presidential-election
What is the latest forecast from the other "Exit" poll (Kantar) though? I think that had 23 each for Le Pen/Macron.
@afneil 2m2 minutes ago More TV coverage concentrating on exit polls rather than actual vote. After 20m votes counted, Le Pen on 25%, Macron 22%. Not representative?
If Neil's implication is right there is serious money to be made on backing Le Pen for Round One – she's available at about 2/1. I'm not (yet) moved.
Half the votes now counted. She's still ahead by nearly two percent.
with half the vote in: LE PEN AT 24.13%, MACRON AT 22.42%: INTERIOR MINISTRY AT 9:48PM: BBG
I assume that is because the rural departments count earlier – but it might be worth a punt. I have stayed away from this market completely simply because I am inexpert on French politics (and French psephology).
It's very interesting that the YouGov Brexit right/wrong poll is level pegging despite the massive approvals for May and signs of a landslide on the way.
It emphasises that the Brexit vote was driven as much by discontent with the style of domestic politics than by anyone's views of the EU.
The utter rejection of Corbyn's brand of post-imperial cringe politics will be another step on the road to us coming to terms with the reality of being a normal, mainstream European country that belongs in the political structures of normal, mainstream Europe.
Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.
Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)
In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
The polls have been pretty accurate in France so far, and they predict a 2:1 win for Macron in round two. That may change, but tonight is a great night for Macron, and an OK night for Le Pen. Remember, just two weeks ago there wasn't a single poll that didn't have Le Pen in front.
Macron will slaughter Le Pen in the second round.
He is less radical than Fillon in his planned economic reforms, but is inclined in the right direction, and much more likely to bring a majority of tbe country with him.
The assembly is likely to be pro reform, with quite a Republican and centrist majority.
en, Macron may comfortably beat Marine Le Pen but he will not slaughter her
She
The significant fact is that including minor candidates, nearly half the vote went to far right or far left candidates. We were only a few per cent away from a Le Pen/Melenchon run off. Next time, we may get it.
Next time the tide of populism will have receded. Macron will be a hugely significant President.
Him and his political party, of course.......
En Mrche now has 250 000 members and plans candidates planned for all Assembly seats.
A lot of political novices and defectors, but formidable in one year.
Lets see how they do!
What's the inside view from the May household on M. Macron?
I wouldn't know - but he's the only candidate she's met in Downing St......
Can someone tell me what I have done to deserve this, ce soir? Sean calls me a 'supposed rightwinger' You call for me to me slung into an asylum. Carlotta picks me up on opposing a change to the tax and benefits system... five years ago. Les autres??
Standard "piling on" from those who stood behind the bully at school waiting to get a crafty kick in for the thrill of it.
I'm really not a fan of these types of arrangements if they are not formal pacts agreed well in advance, and even then I'd prefer not to see it. I am sure most people considering voting LD in Brighton would prefer Lucas to risking a Tory MP, or even a Lab MP, but maybe some of them really wanted to vote for their first preference even if it meant someone not of their party lost their seat.
It's giving up on an area and submitting to another party, not bothering to see if maybe you can surprise, and you might as well be in the same party, with broader factions, if you are going to do that, if defeating party X is the only thing that matters rather than advancing your own parties specific ideology. What about when Lucas goes? Is it ok to stand then? Why? The next Green will start from a higher position than any other progressive, and the lack of LD challenge might be even more significant.
The one thing we need is a website with actual vote totals counted so far for the whole of France and by department. Of course that's the one thing that doesn't seem to exist. The same thing happens at UK general elections: there's never a page with running vote totals.
So far Le Pen is basically sweeping the departements Sarkozy won in 2012 bar Mayenne for Fillon and Macron is winning most of those won by Hollande but Le Pen is leading in the Somme and Charente-Maritime which Hollande won and Melenchon in the Dordogne which Hollande won http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/?p=compare
She's polling about 4% higher than in 2012 almost everywhere, which is why the forecasts for her to get about 22% sound pretty much exactly right.
She is still winning more departements than Macron though, it could be close for winner of the first round
Macron 24.0
Le Pen 21.7
Is latest forecast here www.thelocal.fr/20170423/interactive-map-of-the-2017-french-presidential-election
Le Pen now ahead in 26 departements, Macron in 14, Fillon in 3 and Melenchon in 2. There are 96 departements so almost half now coming in
Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.
Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)
In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
The polls have been pretty accurate in France so far, and they predict a 2:1 win for Macron in round two. That may change, but tonight is a great night for Macron, and an OK night for Le Pen. Remember, just two weeks ago there wasn't a single poll that didn't have Le Pen in front.
Macron will slaughter Le Pen in the second round.
He is less radical than Fillon in his planned economic reforms, but is inclined in the right direction, and much more likely to bring a majority of tbe country with him.
The assembly is likely to be pro reform, with quite a Republican and centrist majority.
en, Macron may comfortably beat Marine Le Pen but he will not slaughter her
She
The significant fact is that including minor candidates, nearly half the vote went to far right or far left candidates. We were only a few per cent away from a Le Pen/Melenchon run off. Next time, we may get it.
Next time the tide of populism will have receded. Macron will be a hugely significant President.
Him and his political party, of course.......
En Mrche now has 250 000 members and plans candidates planned for all Assembly seats.
A lot of political novices and defectors, but formidable in one year.
Lets see how they do!
What's the inside view from the May household on M. Macron?
I wouldn't know - but he's the only candidate she's met in Downing St......
He speaks English well and is pro capitalist. Good for France and good for Britain.
GE 2017. Notice Ladbrokes currently offering 1/4 on UKIP vote share under 10%. Not 5 - 10%, simply under 10%. Given weekend polling plus Nuttall conceding they won't be fielding so many candidates it is difficult to make a case for 10% or higher. Barring something v unexpected.
I'm really not a fan of these types of arrangements if they are not formal pacts agreed well in advance, and even then I'd prefer not to see it. I am sure most people considering voting LD in Brighton would prefer Lucas to risking a Tory MP, or even a Lab MP, but maybe some of them really wanted to vote for their first preference even if it meant someone not of their party lost their seat.
It's giving up on an area and submitting to another party, not bothering to see if maybe you can surprise, and you might as well be in the same party, with broader factions, if you are going to do that, if defeating party X is the only thing that matters rather than advancing your own parties specific ideology. What about when Lucas goes? Is it ok to stand then? Why? The next Green will start from a higher position than any other progressive, and the lack of LD challenge might be even more significant.
It is why we need AV, or better still French style 2 round elections.
Worth watching - very marginal Lab seat majority 274 over Con. Haq backed Corbyn. UKIP polled above Greens by 85 votes. Will LDs want to back her or not?
Christ no! Jon Ball declared his LD candidacy as soon as the election was called. Huq has no chance.
GE 2017. Notice Ladbrokes currently offering 1/4 on UKIP vote share under 10%. Not 5 - 10%, simply under 10%. Given weekend polling plus Nuttall conceding they won't be fielding so many candidates it is difficult to make a case for 10% or higher. Barring something v unexpected.
DYOR obviously.
A great bet, I have 300 on this at 1-3 for Coral, others have been far more bold.
It's very interesting that the YouGov Brexit right/wrong poll is level pegging despite the massive approvals for May and signs of a landslide on the way.
It emphasises that the Brexit vote was driven as much by discontent with the style of domestic politics than by anyone's views of the EU.
The utter rejection of Corbyn's brand of post-imperial cringe politics will be another step on the road to us coming to terms with the reality of being a normal, mainstream European country that belongs in the political structures of normal, mainstream Europe.
Yep, just not in the EU :-)
We willbe back in, but not for a while.
I very much doubt we will ever rejoin the EU (especially as it is very likely to Federalise with us out, and to make the euro work)
But cheer up, there is a pretty good chance we will rejoin the Single Market and EEA/EFTA, and probably quite soon (for reasons I explain downthread). A future centre left party will put it in their manifesto, and they will, eventually, win.
I expect a move into the EEA as a gateway to rejoining, but not for a while. We will have to wait for the Tory Europhiles to be ascendant again.
I'm really not a fan of these types of arrangements if they are not formal pacts agreed well in advance, and even then I'd prefer not to see it. I am sure most people considering voting LD in Brighton would prefer Lucas to risking a Tory MP, or even a Lab MP, but maybe some of them really wanted to vote for their first preference even if it meant someone not of their party lost their seat.
It's giving up on an area and submitting to another party, not bothering to see if maybe you can surprise, and you might as well be in the same party, with broader factions, if you are going to do that, if defeating party X is the only thing that matters rather than advancing your own parties specific ideology. What about when Lucas goes? Is it ok to stand then? Why? The next Green will start from a higher position than any other progressive, and the lack of LD challenge might be even more significant.
It is why we need AV, or better still French style 2 round elections.
Sadly not on the agenda I would guess.
But really, the Greens? I would think for people who claim to be pretty centrist the Greens would be further away ideologically than most Tories (not all, admittedly).
I thought the Lot was wildly leftwing, like most of the southwest?
The geography of French politics is very odd, and very intriguing. Why is the West left and the east right? Religion? Revolution? Race?
Le Pen is winning plenty of places that voted for Hollande in 2012.
There's no way she is as low as the exit poll suggested. No way.
Le Pen has won every departement which voted for Sarkozy in 2012 so far except Mayenne and Lozere which went for Fillon. She is also winning Somme, Haute-Saone, Territorie-de-Belfort, Allier, Tarn, Audre, Lot, Charente-Maritime and Nievre and La Reunion which went for Hollande and held Gard which she won last time http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/?p=compare
Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.
Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)
In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
Macron will slaughter Le Pen in the second round.
He is less radical than Fillon in his planned economic reforms, but is inclined in the right direction, and much more likely to bring a majority of tbe country with him.
The assembly is likely to be pro reform, with quite a Republican and centrist majority.
en, Macron may comfortably beat Marine Le Pen but he will not slaughter her
She
The significant fact is that including minor candidates, nearly half the vote went to far right or far left candidates. We were only a few per cent away from a Le Pen/Melenchon run off. Next time, we may get it.
Next time the tide of populism will have receded. Macron will be a hugely significant President.
Him and his political party, of course.......
En Mrche now has 250 000 members and plans candidates planned for all Assembly seats.
A lot of political novices and defectors, but formidable in one year.
Lets see how they do!
What's the inside view from the May household on M. Macron?
I wouldn't know - but he's the only candidate she's met in Downing St......
He speaks English well and is pro capitalist. Good for France and good for Britain.
While I fear he will struggle I suspect he was the least worst of a pretty poor bunch - and, as with all French Presidents will defend French national interest robustly, but at least we'll be spared the horror show of a Le Pen Presidency - imagine if Farrage/Nuttal had got that close in the UK?
Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.
Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)
In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
The polls have been pretty accurate in France so far, and they predict a 2:1 win for Macron in round two. That may change, but tonight is a great night for Macron, and an OK night for Le Pen. Remember, just two weeks ago there wasn't a single poll that didn't have Le Pen in front.
Macron will slaughter Le Pen in the second round.
He is less radical than Fillon in his planned economic reforms, but is inclined in the right direction, and much more likely to bring a majority of tbe country with him.
The assembly is likely to be pro reform, with quite a Republican and centrist majority.
en, Macron may comfortably beat Marine Le Pen but he will not slaughter her
She
The significant fact is that including minor candidates, nearly half the vote went to far right or far left candidates. We were only a few per cent away from a Le Pen/Melenchon run off. Next time, we may get it.
Next time the tide of populism will have receded. Macron will be a hugely significant President.
Him and his political party, of course.......
En Mrche now has 250 000 members and plans candidates planned for all Assembly seats.
A lot of political novices and defectors, but formidable in one year.
Lets see how they do!
What's the inside view from the May household on M. Macron?
I wouldn't know - but he's the only candidate she's met in Downing St......
He speaks English well and is pro capitalist. Good for France and good for Britain.
I agree and think that Theresa May, subject to a good majority, will cut a good deal with the EU that will include a two to three year transition
I'm really not a fan of these types of arrangements if they are not formal pacts agreed well in advance, and even then I'd prefer not to see it. I am sure most people considering voting LD in Brighton would prefer Lucas to risking a Tory MP, or even a Lab MP, but maybe some of them really wanted to vote for their first preference even if it meant someone not of their party lost their seat.
It's giving up on an area and submitting to another party, not bothering to see if maybe you can surprise, and you might as well be in the same party, with broader factions, if you are going to do that, if defeating party X is the only thing that matters rather than advancing your own parties specific ideology. What about when Lucas goes? Is it ok to stand then? Why? The next Green will start from a higher position than any other progressive, and the lack of LD challenge might be even more significant.
It is why we need AV, or better still French style 2 round elections.
Sadly not on the agenda I would guess.
But really, the Greens? I would think for people who claim to be pretty centrist the Greens would be further away ideologically than most Tories.
I have voted Green in the past at GE (2005 in Leicester South), I didn't expect them to win, but wanted the government to take Green issues seriously. Just as UKIP have influenced the agenda while flopping at FPTP.
It's very interesting that the YouGov Brexit right/wrong poll is level pegging despite the massive approvals for May and signs of a landslide on the way.
It emphasises that the Brexit vote was driven as much by discontent with the style of domestic politics than by anyone's views of the EU.
The utter rejection of Corbyn's brand of post-imperial cringe politics will be another step on the road to us coming to terms with the reality of being a normal, mainstream European country that belongs in the political structures of normal, mainstream Europe.
Yep, just not in the EU :-)
We willbe back in, but not for a while.
I very much doubt we will ever rejoin the EU (especially as it is very likely to Federalise with us out, and to make the euro work)
But cheer up, there is a pretty good chance we will rejoin the Single Market and EEA/EFTA, and probably quite soon (for reasons I explain downthread). A future centre left party will put it in their manifesto, and they will, eventually, win.
I expect a move into the EEA as a gateway to rejoining, but not for a while. We will have to wait for the Tory Europhiles to be ascendant again.
I can't see us ever rejoin the EU which will now focus on the Eurozone if Macron wins
So I google 'Macron gay sub relationship rumours' and got only articles dated either 7 or 8 February 2017. Was this a 24-hour story? If so, I presume it has no validity and hence holds no dangers for Macron.
Given that the French (rightly) largely consider sex a private matter – who gives a fuck?
They don't give a shit. Really. They haven't had a leader not involved in sonme sexual imbroglio as long as anyone can remember and they are completely indifferent. Another reason why I love the French however rude and arrogant they might appear.
I thought the Lot was wildly leftwing, like most of the southwest?
The geography of French politics is very odd, and very intriguing. Why is the West left and the east right? Religion? Revolution? Race?
Le Pen is winning plenty of places that voted for Hollande in 2012.
There's no way she is as low as the exit poll suggested. No way.
Le Pen has won every departement which voted for Sarkozy in 2012 so far except Mayenne and Lozere which went for Fillon. She is also winning Somme, Haute-Saone, Territorie-de-Belfort, Allier, Tarn, Audre, Lot, Charente-Maritime and Nievre and La Reunion which went for Hollande and held Gard which she won last time http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/?p=compare
They must be able to see something that really isn't apparent at all in the results so far.
So far Le Pen is basically sweeping the departements Sarkozy won in 2012 bar Mayenne for Fillon and Macron is winning most of those won by Hollande but Le Pen is leading in the Somme and Charente-Maritime which Hollande won and Melenchon in the Dordogne which Hollande won http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/?p=compare
She's polling about 4% higher than in 2012 almost everywhere, which is why the forecasts for her to get about 22% sound pretty much exactly right.
She is still winning more departements than Macron though, it could be close for winner of the first round
Macron 24.0
Le Pen 21.7
Is latest forecast here www.thelocal.fr/20170423/interactive-map-of-the-2017-french-presidential-election
Tories won't govern for ever. Politics will realign. Labour (or a successor) will win in 2022 or 2027. And I bet they put Single Market membership in their manifesto.
Single market membership means accepting the four "freedoms" including free movement. How is Labour meant to sell that to their traditional supporter?
Comments
This reminds me of the US Presidential election when Trump was leading in the popular vote and you could get similar odds, even though it was clear that Clinton was going to end up ahead.
https://www.thelocal.fr/20170423/interactive-map-of-the-2017-french-presidential-election
20m votes counted, and no table? what's going on!
Surely not challenging Dr Eoin for 'doesn't understand MOE'?
Though I feel absolutely vindicated in having taken out and advocated here a Le Pen - Melenchon run off bet at odds of 66/1, which clearly had value since based on the exit poll it would have taken only a 2% swing to become a reality. That said I'm still green if Macron wins which he will.
http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/?p=compare
http://www.lci.fr/direct/
If Neil's implication is right there is serious money to be made on backing Le Pen for Round One – she's available at about 2/1. I'm not (yet) moved.
It emphasises that the Brexit vote was driven as much by discontent with the style of domestic politics than by anyone's views of the EU.
The utter rejection of Corbyn's brand of post-imperial cringe politics will be another step on the road to us coming to terms with the reality of being a normal, mainstream European country that belongs in the political structures of normal, mainstream Europe.
http://www.lci.fr/direct/
A lot of political novices and defectors, but formidable in one year.
Five years ago it was all 'the future is left', EdM would be PM, there would never again be a Conservative majority, the 'coming Democrat majority'.
http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/?p=compare
It's easy to run checks against 2012 results - she's up 6 or more in most, 10 in some.
Example - Somme 33.87 (2017) versus 23.77 (2012)
Bloomberg are starting to sound panicky.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/green-party-pulls-out-crucial-10281739#ICID=sharebar_twitter
Worth watching - very marginal Lab seat majority 274 over Con. Haq backed Corbyn. UKIP polled above Greens by 85 votes. Will LDs want to back her or not?
Says the expatriate rentier......
http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/
Given that the French (rightly) largely consider sex a private matter – who gives a fuck?
Le Pen 21.7
Is latest forecast here www.thelocal.fr/20170423/interactive-map-of-the-2017-french-presidential-election
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=up28hlTaqaA
https://twitter.com/vincecable/status/856234593598492673
I assume that is because the rural departments count earlier – but it might be worth a punt. I have stayed away from this market completely simply because I am inexpert on French politics (and French psephology).
Will he be expelled for that?
It's giving up on an area and submitting to another party, not bothering to see if maybe you can surprise, and you might as well be in the same party, with broader factions, if you are going to do that, if defeating party X is the only thing that matters rather than advancing your own parties specific ideology. What about when Lucas goes? Is it ok to stand then? Why? The next Green will start from a higher position than any other progressive, and the lack of LD challenge might be even more significant.
There's no way she is as low as the exit poll suggested. No way.
http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/
GE 2017. Notice Ladbrokes currently offering 1/4 on UKIP vote share under 10%. Not 5 - 10%, simply under 10%. Given weekend polling plus Nuttall conceding they won't be fielding so many candidates it is difficult to make a case for 10% or higher. Barring something v unexpected.
DYOR obviously.
But really, the Greens? I would think for people who claim to be pretty centrist the Greens would be further away ideologically than most Tories (not all, admittedly).
http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/?p=compare
http://www.lci.fr/direct/
http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/
Le Pen 21.8
Moved but now based on 93%