politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Exit poll says Macron and Le Pen make it into round two.
Comments
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The End of the Fifth Republic?0
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It doesn't take a lot of Facist rally to get a percentage of the PB frothers over excited.surbiton said:
You sound like an enthusiastic supporter !HYUFD said:Marine Le Pen now speaking and promises a contrast between the establishment and the failures of Hollande's 5 years and says her responsibility to free French people as their candidate and appeals to all French patriots to join her regardless of how they voted in the first round and to put the country first and ensure the survival of France. She closes Long Live the Republic, Long Live France to cheers of 'Marine President!' and La Marseilles from her supporters
Bettors should note how accurate the French polls were on Friday and bet accordingly.0 -
It would be LOL time if EdM had to do some campaigning in his own constituency.Pulpstar said:My spreadsheet doesn't show it (yet), but with its massive leave vote and WWC demographic I wonder if Ed Miliband might be THE casualty of the election night.
I'm sure he would be able to point out all the things he has done for the electorate in the last twelve years. I doubt it would take long.0 -
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For all I know that is not a plausible scenario, but it does seem humanity likes its dynasties, even when we elect leaders.ToryJim said:
Interesting, hereditary fascism.kle4 said:
Yes- I was thinking in the event Marine cannot take them further, and is deposed at some point by yet another Le Pen.surbiton said:
You are talking about her niece, right ?kle4 said:foxinsoxuk said:
A bustrcs1000 said:
She has done mHYUFD said:
Even now Le Pen is polling 35-40% in the runoff against Macron, Chirac slaughtered Jean Marie Le Pen, Macron may comfortably beat Marine Le Pen but he will not slaughter herfoxinsoxuk said:
Macron will slaughter Le Pen in the second round.SeanT said:
But Macron will only win because he's facing the still-tainted Le Pen.rcs1000 said:
The polls have been pretty accurate in France so far, and they predict a 2:1 win for Macron in round two. That may change, but tonight is a great night for Macron, and an OK night for Le Pen. Remember, just two weeks ago there wasn't a single poll that didn't have Le Pen in front.SeanT said:
Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)dodrade said:Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.
In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
He got 24%, at best. It's not some crowning endorsement or stunning triumph.
The French are confused, conflicted and unhappy, and this is reflected in the wild spread of votes.
That said I hear Macron is a mild Anglophile, and pro-business, so he might be OK for Brexit.
He is less radical than Fillon in his planned economic reforms, but is inclined in the right direction, and much more likely to bring a majority of tbe country with him.
The assembly is likely to be pro reform, with quite a Republican and centrist majority.
She may go forward in the next four years, she may go back. I think it largely depends on whether Macron is able to push through the reforms that France needs. (And it also depends on MLP not being deposed by MMLP.)0 -
Macron is very keen on a common EU budget. More Europe, paid for by the Germans and the rest of the Deutschmark bloc.0
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Like Norh Korea in its flag waving and protectionist nationalism.ToryJim said:
Interesting, hereditary fascism.kle4 said:
Yes- I was thinking in the event Marine cannot take them further, and is deposed at some point by yet another Le Pen.surbiton said:
You are talking about her niece, right ?kle4 said:
Yeah, but then she took them further. Could MMLP do the same? I'd heard she was more in the mould of her grandfather, not her aunt.foxinsoxuk said:
A busted Flush. After her dad made the second round he went backwards.rcs1000 said:
She has done mHYUFD said:
Even now Le Pen is polling 35-40% in the runoff against Macron, Chirac slaughtered Jean Marie Le Pen, Macron may comfortably beat Marine Le Pen but he will not slaughter herfoxinsoxuk said:
Macron will slaughter Le Pen in the second round.SeanT said:
But Macron will only win because he's facing the still-tainted Le Pen.rcs1000 said:
The polls have been pretty accurate in France so far, and they predict a 2:1 win for Macron in round two. That may change, but tonight is a great night for Macron, and an OK night for Le Pen. Remember, just two weeks ago there wasn't a single poll that didn't have Le Pen in front.SeanT said:
Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)dodrade said:Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.
In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
He got 24%, at best. It's not some crowning endorsement or stunning triumph.
The French are confused, conflicted and unhappy, and this is reflected in the wild spread of votes.
That said I hear Macron is a mild Anglophile, and pro-business, so he might be OK for Brexit.
He is less radical than Fillon in his planned economic reforms, but is inclined in the right direction, and much more likely to bring a majority of tbe country with him.
The assembly is likely to be pro reform, with quite a Republican and centrist majority.
She may go forward in the next four years, she may go back. I think it largely depends on whether Macron is able to push through the reforms that France needs. (And it also depends on MLP not being deposed by MMLP.)0 -
A wonderful result for France and a wonderful result for Europe!
Repost from last night:williamglenn said:The narrative grid:
- Sunday morning: Labour are going to be wiped out.
- Sunday evening: Emmanuel Macron comes first in French election and centre-left media sees the light.
- Monday-Friday: Realignment, realignment, realignment.0 -
Mr. Jim, political dynasties do seem to spring up in countries that lack a monarchy (America being a prime example).
Of course, Labour has some elements of this, but not to the same extent as the FN or the political families of America.0 -
35% of the votes counted - MLP 25%, Macron 21%. (via Bloomberg)0
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Yes, nothing like the NY Times live tracker.AndyJS said:It would be nice to compare the actual results to those expected by the exit poll to check how accurate it is. Oh well. It won't take long to count the votes.
The exit polls in 2012 weren't accurate enough to advise piling on Macron to win r1 though.0 -
In UK, even the first results would not have been out. In France, 32% have been counted.SeanT said:I still can't find a site that simply gives me the running total of votes, with a neat map of all France, slowly colouring in.
Is this really so hard to do? This interactive shit makes politics interesting. Up your game, France!0 -
The significant fact is that including minor candidates, nearly half the vote went to far right or far left candidates. We were only a few per cent away from a Le Pen/Melenchon run off. Next time, we may get it.rcs1000 said:
She has done much better than her father, largely by ditching the antisemitism (or hiding it away), and pretending not to be a member of the FN. She's moved to a very populist economic message, and away from the nationalist Christian conservative heritage of her party.HYUFD said:
Even now Le Pen is polling 35-40% in the runoff against Macron, Chirac slaughtered Jean Marie Le Pen, Macron may comfortably beat Marine Le Pen but he will not slaughter herfoxinsoxuk said:
Macron will slaughter Le Pen in the second round.SeanT said:
But Macron will only win because he's facing the still-tainted Le Pen.rcs1000 said:
The polls have been pretty accurate in France so far, and they predict a 2:1 win for Macron in round two. That may change, but tonight is a great night for Macron, and an OK night for Le Pen. Remember, just two weeks ago there wasn't a single poll that didn't have Le Pen in front.SeanT said:
Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)dodrade said:Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.
In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
He got 24%, at best. It's not some crowning endorsement or stunning triumph.
The French are confused, conflicted and unhappy, and this is reflected in the wild spread of votes.
That said I hear Macron is a mild Anglophile, and pro-business, so he might be OK for Brexit.
He is less radical than Fillon in his planned economic reforms, but is inclined in the right direction, and much more likely to bring a majority of tbe country with him.
The assembly is likely to be pro reform, with quite a Republican and centrist majority.
She may go forward in the next four years, she may go back. I think it largely depends on whether Macron is able to push through the reforms that France needs. (And it also depends on MLP not being deposed by MMLP.)0 -
Yes, looks like a very profitable election. Someone (PfP) tipped Macron at 4-1 on Marathon (£300), and I've been laying Le Pen (minus £256), Fillon, Juppe, Hamon and Baroin.0
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The Kims are clearly meant to be divine figures, but plenty of other states which pretend to be democratic end up with sons following fathers, and even genuine democratic states seem to get some families popping up at very high levels more than would seem plausible. Doesn't always pay off, if the follow up is weak and lacks support (I'm looking at you, Richard Cromwell), but we seem to like it.foxinsoxuk said:
Like North Korea in its flag waving and protectionist nationalism.ToryJim said:
Interesting, hereditary fascism.kle4 said:
Yes- I was thinking in the event Marine cannot take them further, and is deposed at some point by yet another Le Pen.surbiton said:
You are talking about her niece, right ?kle4 said:
Yeahfoxinsoxuk said:
A busted Flush. After her dad made the second round he went backwards.rcs1000 said:
She h.)HYUFD said:
Even now Le Pen is polling 35-40% in the runoff against Macron, Chirac slaughtered Jean Marie Le Pen, Macron may comfortably beat Marine Le Pen but he will not slaughter herfoxinsoxuk said:
Macron will slaughter Le Pen in the second round.SeanT said:
But Macron will only win because he's facing the still-tainted Le Pen.rcs1000 said:
The polls have been pen in front.SeanT said:
Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)dodrade said:Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.
In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
He got 24%, at best. It's not some crowning endorsement or stunning triumph.
The French are confused, conflicted and unhappy, and this is reflected in the wild spread of votes.
That said I hear Macron is a mild Anglophile, and pro-business, so he might be OK for Brexit.
He is less radical than Fillon in his planned economic reforms, but is inclined in the right direction, and much more likely to bring a majority of tbe country with him.
The assembly is likely to be pro reform, with quite a Republican and centrist majority.0 -
Melenchon could still beat the creep.chestnut said:35% of the votes counted - MLP 25%, Macron 21%. (via Bloomberg)
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Next time the tide of populism will have receded. Macron will be a hugely significant President.Sean_F said:
The significant fact is that including minor candidates, nearly half the vote went to far right or far left candidates. We were only a few per cent away from a Le Pen/Melenchon run off. Next time, we may get it.rcs1000 said:
She has done much better than her father, largely by ditching the antisemitism (or hiding it away), and pretending not to be a member of the FN. She's moved to a very populist economic message, and away from the nationalist Christian conservative heritage of her party.HYUFD said:
Even now Le Pen is polling 35-40% in the runoff against Macron, Chirac slaughtered Jean Marie Le Pen, Macron may comfortably beat Marine Le Pen but he will not slaughter herfoxinsoxuk said:
Macron will slaughter Le Pen in the second round.SeanT said:
But Macron will only win because he's facing the still-tainted Le Pen.rcs1000 said:
The polls have been pretty accurate in France so far, and they predict a 2:1 win for Macron in round two. That may change, but tonight is a great night for Macron, and an OK night for Le Pen. Remember, just two weeks ago there wasn't a single poll that didn't have Le Pen in front.SeanT said:
Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)dodrade said:Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.
In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
He got 24%, at best. It's not some crowning endorsement or stunning triumph.
The French are confused, conflicted and unhappy, and this is reflected in the wild spread of votes.
That said I hear Macron is a mild Anglophile, and pro-business, so he might be OK for Brexit.
He is less radical than Fillon in his planned economic reforms, but is inclined in the right direction, and much more likely to bring a majority of tbe country with him.
The assembly is likely to be pro reform, with quite a Republican and centrist majority.
She may go forward in the next four years, she may go back. I think it largely depends on whether Macron is able to push through the reforms that France needs. (And it also depends on MLP not being deposed by MMLP.)0 -
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Mr. Surbiton, aye, it's a damned long wait for results here.
Even worse for the London mayoralty.0 -
Maybe he will, and maybe he won't. There are immense barriers to reform in France.williamglenn said:
Next time the tide of populism will have receded. Macron will be a hugely significant President.Sean_F said:
The significant fact is that including minor candidates, nearly half the vote went to far right or far left candidates. We were only a few per cent away from a Le Pen/Melenchon run off. Next time, we may get it.rcs1000 said:
She has done much better than her father, largely by ditching the antisemitism (or hiding it away), and pretending not to be a member of the FN. She's moved to a very populist economic message, and away from the nationalist Christian conservative heritage of her party.HYUFD said:
Even now Le Pen is polling 35-40% in the runoff against Macron, Chirac slaughtered Jean Marie Le Pen, Macron may comfortably beat Marine Le Pen but he will not slaughter herfoxinsoxuk said:
Macron wSeanT said:
But Macron will only win because he's facing the still-tainted Le Pen.rcs1000 said:
The polls have been pretty accurate in France so far, and they predict a 2:1 win for Macron in round two. That may change, but tonight is a great night for Macron, and an OK night for Le Pen. Remember, just two weeks ago there wasn't a single poll that didn't have Le Pen in front.SeanT said:
Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)dodrade said:Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.
In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
He got 24%, at best. It's not some crowning endorsement or stunning triumph.
The French are confused, conflicted and unhappy, and this is reflected in the wild spread of votes.
That said I hear Macron is a mild Anglophile, and pro-business, so he might be OK for Brexit.
He is less radical than Fillon in his planned economic reforms, but is inclined in the right direction, and much more likely to bring a majority
The assembly is likely to be pro reform, with quite a Republican and centrist majority.
She may go forward in the next four years, she may go back. I think it largely depends on whether Macron is able to push through the reforms that France needs. (And it also depends on MLP not being deposed by MMLP.)0 -
Brilliant.isam said:
In keeping with the rule that at some point parody becomes indistinguishable from reality, there's one reply to it that looks genuinely offended.0 -
A lesson most pundits and commentators will surely miss.Sean_F said:
The significant fact is that including minor candidates, nearly half the vote went to far right or far left candidates. We were only a few per cent away from a Le Pen/Melenchon run off. Next time, we may get it.rcs1000 said:
She has done much better than her father, largely by ditching the antisemitism (or hiding it away), and pretending not to be a member of the FN. She's moved to a very populist economic message, and away from the nationalist Christian conservative heritage of her party.HYUFD said:
Even now Le Pen is polling 35-40% in the runoff against Macron, Chirac slaughtered Jean Marie Le Pen, Macron may comfortably beat Marine Le Pen but he will not slaughter herfoxinsoxuk said:
Macron will slaughter Le Pen in the second round.SeanT said:
But Macron will only win because he's facing the still-tainted Le Pen.rcs1000 said:
The polls have been pretty accurate in France so far, and they predict a 2:1 win for Macron in round two. That may change, but tonight is a great night for Macron, and an OK night for Le Pen. Remember, just two weeks ago there wasn't a single poll that didn't have Le Pen in front.SeanT said:
Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)dodrade said:Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.
In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
He got 24%, at best. It's not some crowning endorsement or stunning triumph.
The French are confused, conflicted and unhappy, and this is reflected in the wild spread of votes.
That said I hear Macron is a mild Anglophile, and pro-business, so he might be OK for Brexit.
He is less radical than Fillon in his planned economic reforms, but is inclined in the right direction, and much more likely to bring a majority of tbe country with him.
The assembly is likely to be pro reform, with quite a Republican and centrist majority.
She may go forward in the next four years, she may go back. I think it largely depends on whether Macron is able to push through the reforms that France needs. (And it also depends on MLP not being deposed by MMLP.)0 -
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If he continues to accuse the Irish of 'fiscal dumping', you may well be right.williamglenn said:
Next time the tide of populism will have receded. Macron will be a hugely significant President.Sean_F said:
The significant fact is that including minor candidates, nearly half the vote went to far right or far left candidates. We were only a few per cent away from a Le Pen/Melenchon run off. Next time, we may get it.rcs1000 said:
She has done much better than her father, largely by ditching the antisemitism (or hiding it away), and pretending not to be a member of the FN. She's moved to a very populist economic message, and away from the nationalist Christian conservative heritage of her party.HYUFD said:
Even now Le Pen is polling 35-40% in the runoff against Macron, Chirac slaughtered Jean Marie Le Pen, Macron may comfortably beat Marine Le Pen but he will not slaughter herfoxinsoxuk said:
Macron will slaughter Le Pen in the second round.SeanT said:
But Macron will only win because he's facing the still-tainted Le Pen.rcs1000 said:
The polls have been pretty accurate in France so far, and they predict a 2:1 win for Macron in round two. That may change, but tonight is a great night for Macron, and an OK night for Le Pen. Remember, just two weeks ago there wasn't a single poll that didn't have Le Pen in front.SeanT said:
Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)dodrade said:Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.
In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
He got 24%, at best. It's not some crowning endorsement or stunning triumph.
The French are confused, conflicted and unhappy, and this is reflected in the wild spread of votes.
That said I hear Macron is a mild Anglophile, and pro-business, so he might be OK for Brexit.
He is less radical than Fillon in his planned economic reforms, but is inclined in the right direction, and much more likely to bring a majority of tbe country with him.
The assembly is likely to be pro reform, with quite a Republican and centrist majority.
She may go forward in the next four years, she may go back. I think it largely depends on whether Macron is able to push through the reforms that France needs. (And it also depends on MLP not being deposed by MMLP.)0 -
Mr Dancer, yeah it just seems weird. There is nothing automatic that says that a child or other relative will have the same political skills etcMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Jim, political dynasties do seem to spring up in countries that lack a monarchy (America being a prime example).
Of course, Labour has some elements of this, but not to the same extent as the FN or the political families of America.0 -
It does seem like the "exit poll" is assumed to be so accurate that there isn't actually any interest in external validation of the results as they come in and how they compare with the projections.0
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Police have fired tear gas on the Place de la Bastille in eastern Paris as crowds of young people, some from anarchist and anti-fascist groups, gathered to protest at Marine Le Pen’s second-place finish and her hardline, anti-immigrant policies.-1
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Well, if the aim is to achieve Eurofederalism then this is an entirely logical step. At some point, the wealthiest states will have to concede a mechanism for fiscal transfers - i.e. the Germans will have to hose everybody else's problems down with their taxes.chestnut said:Macron is very keen on a common EU budget. More Europe, paid for by the Germans and the rest of the Deutschmark bloc.
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We were only a few percent away from a Remain win. That didn't happen and now the political map of the UK is about to be rewritten.Casino_Royale said:
A lesson most pundits and commentators will surely miss.Sean_F said:The significant fact is that including minor candidates, nearly half the vote went to far right or far left candidates. We were only a few per cent away from a Le Pen/Melenchon run off. Next time, we may get it.
Elections have consequences. Macron's victory will have profound consequences for French politics.0 -
Energy Cap proposed by Miliband = Bad News. Because Markets know better.
Energy Cap proposed by May = Good News. Because Markets know f-a.
PB Tories = PB Hypocrites0 -
In what way?williamglenn said:
Next time the tide of populism will have receded. Macron will be a hugely significant President.Sean_F said:
The significant fact is that including minor candidates, nearly half the vote went to far right or far left candidates. We were only a few per cent away from a Le Pen/Melenchon run off. Next time, we may get it.rcs1000 said:
She has done much better than her father, largely by ditching the antisemitism (or hiding it away), and pretending not to be a member of the FN. She's moved to a very populist economic message, and away from the nationalist Christian conservative heritage of her party.HYUFD said:
Even now Le Pen is polling 35-40% in the runoff against Macron, Chirac slaughtered Jean Marie Le Pen, Macron may comfortably beat Marine Le Pen but he will not slaughter herfoxinsoxuk said:
Macron will slaughter Le Pen in the second round.SeanT said:
But Macron will only win because he's facing the still-tainted Le Pen.rcs1000 said:
The polls have been pretty accurate in France so far, and they predict a 2:1 win for Macron in round two. That may change, but tonight is a great night for Macron, and an OK night for Le Pen. Remember, just two weeks ago there wasn't a single poll that didn't have Le Pen in front.SeanT said:
Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)dodrade said:Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.
In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
He got 24%, at best. It's not some crowning endorsement or stunning triumph.
The French are confused, conflicted and unhappy, and this is reflected in the wild spread of votes.
That said I hear Macron is a mild Anglophile, and pro-business, so he might be OK for Brexit.
He is less radical than Fillon in his planned economic reforms, but is inclined in the right direction, and much more likely to bring a majority of tbe country with him.
The assembly is likely to be pro reform, with quite a Republican and centrist majority.
She may go forward in the next four years, she may go back. I think it largely depends on whether Macron is able to push through the reforms that France needs. (And it also depends on MLP not being deposed by MMLP.)
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Macron's fucked.HYUFD said:0 -
No problem – I assumed there was some confusion. Forget it.Floater said:
no probs and I actually owe you an apology. I was wrong about that bloke in Canada. I apologised to Sunil at the time but you had called it a night.bobajobPB said:
LOL. The anarcho-communist @SeanT will soon cast some light no doubt.Floater said:
News to me too Bob :-)bobajobPB said:
I'm a 'supposed rightwinger'?SeanT said:
Why are you chortling? Fillon (sans scandals) would have been best for France, economically, and therefore best for the French people. And he might have won the Assembly, he could have pressed through real reform.bobajobPB said:
I fear Macron will be a grave disappointment, and he doesn't even have a proper party, implying paralysis and further stagnation. As a supposed rightwinger, your delight is therefore a bit mystifying.
P.S. Thanks for challenging me the other night. Had been a long afternoon with clients –– in the pub.0 -
Mr. Jim, indeed. Edwards I-III rather bear that out (a similar pattern occurred with Babur, Humayun and Akbar, the first three great Moghal emperors, although that's a generous title for Humayun. He was chased into exile by the Afghan prince Sher Khan Sur, after whom The Jungle Book's Shere Khan was named).0
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Le Pen currently leads in 11 departements recording results, Macron in 2, Fillon in 1
http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/0 -
Angling for yet another job?HYUFD said:0 -
I
Quite possible.Pulpstar said:My spreadsheet doesn't show it (yet), but with its massive leave vote and WWC demographic I wonder if Ed Miliband might be THE casualty of the election night.
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Mr. Surbiton, 1) Miliband wanted a price freeze, not a cap. 2) The mooted Conservative price cap is a stupid idea.
Who's welcomed it, exactly?
Ammianus Marcellinus was right to criticise Julian (of whom he was generally a fan) for fixing the price of commodities in the 4th century, rightly stating that they can lead to shortages or even famine.0 -
UKIP in Romford was first!ToryJim said:0 -
IMF most probably in a few yearsFrancisUrquhart said:
Angling for yet another job?HYUFD said:0 -
Fillon calling for people to back Macron.0
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Well he's got 5 afternoons a week he was planning to spend on other work free nowFrancisUrquhart said:
Angling for yet another job?HYUFD said:0 -
Mr. Pulpstar/Mr. Royale, Conservatives are 16/1 on Betfair Sportsbook for Doncaster North.
Not sure about that myself. Not local, I should stress, but it is in the People's Republic of South Yorkshire.0 -
Le Pen ahead in 13 departements, Macron in 8, Fillon in 1, Melenchon in 1 of those coming in so farSeanT said:
I read that the last French "exit poll" was accurate to within 1 percent?alex. said:It does seem like the "exit poll" is assumed to be so accurate that there isn't actually any interest in external validation of the results as they come in and how they compare with the projections.
http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/.
The last French exit poll got Hollande about right but underestimated Sarkozy0 -
Most dynasties have a large number of relatives to sustain them - some with political or other relevant skills, some without. I don't see why it is any more surprising in countries without monarchies, as those with. There had to be a basis for hereditary monarchy, or it would never have become so widespread.ToryJim said:
Mr Dancer, yeah it just seems weird. There is nothing automatic that says that a child or other relative will have the same political skills etcMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Jim, political dynasties do seem to spring up in countries that lack a monarchy (America being a prime example).
Of course, Labour has some elements of this, but not to the same extent as the FN or the political families of America.0 -
CNBC - latest Le Pen - 24.8 - Macron 22.19 from the Interior Ministry after 20 million votes
Doesn't that contradict Macron's figures0 -
1) Miliband wanted a price freeze, not a cap. ????????????????????????Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Surbiton, 1) Miliband wanted a price freeze, not a cap. 2) The mooted Conservative price cap is a stupid idea.
Who's welcomed it, exactly?
Ammianus Marcellinus was right to criticise Julian (of whom he was generally a fan) for fixing the price of commodities in the 4th century, rightly stating that they can lead to shortages or even famine.0 -
Cantal declares for Macron 27% Le Pen 18%0
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Is it going to be rhymes that are the key then? Toulon, very Macron. Fillon scores in Lyon.Gallowgate said:Ardennes very Le Pen:
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As in, he would have stopped prices falling when the wholesale price of gas fell.surbiton said:
1) Miliband wanted a price freeze, not a cap. ????????????????????????Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Surbiton, 1) Miliband wanted a price freeze, not a cap. 2) The mooted Conservative price cap is a stupid idea.
Who's welcomed it, exactly?
Ammianus Marcellinus was right to criticise Julian (of whom he was generally a fan) for fixing the price of commodities in the 4th century, rightly stating that they can lead to shortages or even famine.0 -
Of the results in so far it looks like we may be seeing some 'shy' Le Pen voters but we shall seeBig_G_NorthWales said:CNBC - latest Le Pen - 24.8 - Macron 22.19 from the Interior Ministry after 20 million votes
Doesn't that contradict Macron's figures0 -
Won't help.ToryJim said:
However if the Lib Dems were to also stand down she might have a chance.
I'd want to see Labour withdraw from every top 50 target seat (Vs theTories) for that deal to be arrived at though.0 -
0
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Mr. Surbiton, I'm confused by the question marks.
Miliband's policy for the price to be frozen.
When prices subsequently fell, he then backpedalled furiously and tried to claim he'd argued for a cap. He didn't.0 -
@carlgardner: Brexit will never again be as popular as it has been this last year. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…SeanT said:Uhm, I thought Leave was going to be reversed, and Brexit halted? If you have now accepted this is bollocks, can I have my £1000? Ta.
@MSmithsonPB: Latest YouGov Brexit right or wrong tracker
Right 44% -2
Wrong 44% +1
DK 12%0 -
If Spin (the TV drama series – Les Homme de l'Ombre) is to be believed, the exit poll is basically assumed to be correct in France. Not sure there any/many recent examples of it failing to pick the winner?SeanT said:
I read that the last French "exit poll" was accurate to within 1 percent?alex. said:It does seem like the "exit poll" is assumed to be so accurate that there isn't actually any interest in external validation of the results as they come in and how they compare with the projections.
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That's the trade the Germans have to decide on: fiscal transfers in return for being the undisputed top dog and with a lower exchange rate than they might otherwise have.chestnut said:Macron is very keen on a common EU budget. More Europe, paid for by the Germans and the rest of the Deutschmark bloc.
Prussia faced a similar dilemma 150 years ago; whether to pay for German unification in return for influence or not. Now Germany must make the same decision.0 -
Wheras so called PB Lefties including one who call himself a Socialist cheer on the GO Genius candidate.surbiton said:Energy Cap proposed by Miliband = Bad News. Because Markets know better.
Energy Cap proposed by May = Good News. Because Markets know f-a.
PB Tories = PB Hypocrites
Jean Luc M for me0 -
It's still early days.SeanT said:
Uhm, I thought Leave was going to be reversed, and Brexit halted? If you have now accepted this is bollocks, can I have my £1000? Ta.williamglenn said:
We were only a few percent away from a Remain win. That didn't happen and now the political map of the UK is about to be rewritten.Casino_Royale said:
A lesson most pundits and commentators will surely miss.Sean_F said:The significant fact is that including minor candidates, nearly half the vote went to far right or far left candidates. We were only a few per cent away from a Le Pen/Melenchon run off. Next time, we may get it.
Elections have consequences. Macron's victory will have profound consequences for French politics.
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It's possible the media narrative (possibly) helps the lib dems consolidate the remain vote, possibly, a little bit.williamglenn said:A wonderful result for France and a wonderful result for Europe!
Repost from last night:williamglenn said:The narrative grid:
- Sunday morning: Labour are going to be wiped out.
- Sunday evening: Emmanuel Macron comes first in French election and centre-left media sees the light.
- Monday-Friday: Realignment, realignment, realignment.
Possibly.0 -
The American exit polls were always accurate until 2016.SeanT said:
I read that the last French "exit poll" was accurate to within 1 percent?alex. said:It does seem like the "exit poll" is assumed to be so accurate that there isn't actually any interest in external validation of the results as they come in and how they compare with the projections.
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But not many four-way races that it has been tested in...bobajobPB said:
If Spin (the TV drama series – Les Homme de l'Ombre) is to be believed, the exit poll is basically assumed to be correct in France. Not sure there any/many recent examples of it failing to pick the winner?SeanT said:
I read that the last French "exit poll" was accurate to within 1 percent?alex. said:It does seem like the "exit poll" is assumed to be so accurate that there isn't actually any interest in external validation of the results as they come in and how they compare with the projections.
0 -
If the Greens followed through with their own logic then they'd defend Brighton Pavilion, challenge Labour in Bristol West (where they're well-supported and the Tories are pretty weak,) and not bother anywhere else. Would save a tremendous amount of time, money and effort, and allow them to donate the rest of their voters to Labour or the Liberal Democrats.ToryJim said:
If the Greens were a serious political party and not a kind of cod socialist-environmentalist hobby outfit, for Waitrose-shopping yummy mummies who just want to feel smug and morally superior to their neighbours, then they would continue to stand candidates everywhere. Try to build support, overtake their rivals through the force of convincing argument and good policy, and win real power that way.
But they aren't.0 -
The French "exit" polls are not done by asking people questions as they leave the booths but a sample is taken of actual votes. No wonder it is more accurate.bobajobPB said:
If Spin (the TV drama series – Les Homme de l'Ombre) is to be believed, the exit poll is basically assumed to be correct in France. Not sure there any/many recent examples of it failing to pick the winner?SeanT said:
I read that the last French "exit poll" was accurate to within 1 percent?alex. said:It does seem like the "exit poll" is assumed to be so accurate that there isn't actually any interest in external validation of the results as they come in and how they compare with the projections.
0 -
It's a votes to date, not a projection. There appears to be some updating of projections (Sky) as the count progresses - not much has changed.Big_G_NorthWales said:CNBC - latest Le Pen - 24.8 - Macron 22.19 from the Interior Ministry after 20 million votes
Doesn't that contradict Macron's figures0 -
Paris and Marseilles not yet included, if I understand the Interior Ministry's figures and map correctly. But DYOR.Big_G_NorthWales said:CNBC - latest Le Pen - 24.8 - Macron 22.19 from the Interior Ministry after 20 million votes
Doesn't that contradict Macron's figures0 -
I think its displacement activity - anything to avert the gaze from the car crash they are hurtling towards in June.SeanT said:
Way too blithe. France is STILL in a State of Emergency. The economy might be doing better, but the huge issues of immigration/identity/Islam/terror/alienation are not going away just because some nice liberal Rothschild banker with a love of ballet got 23% of the first round French presidential election.foxinsoxuk said:
A busted Flush. After her dad made the second round he went backwards. The European economy is now recovering reasonably well and a rising tide lifts all boats. Macron got elected at the right time, Hollande did not.rcs1000 said:HYUFD said:
Even now Le Pen is polling 35-40% in the runoff against Macron, Chirac slaughtered Jean Marie Le Pen, Macron may comfortably beat Marine Le Pen but he will not slaughter herfoxinsoxuk said:
Macron will slaughter Le Pen in the second round.SeanT said:
But Macron will only win because he's facing the still-tainted Le Pen.rcs1000 said:
The polls single poll that didn't have Le Pen in front.SeanT said:
Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)dodrade said:Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.
In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
He got 24%, at best. It's not some crowning endorsement or stunning triumph.
The French are confused, conflicted and unhappy, and this is reflected in the wild spread of votes.
That said I hear Macron is a mild Anglophile, and pro-business, so he might be OK for Brexit.
He is less radical than Fillon in his planned economic reforms, but is inclined in the right direction, and much more likely to bring a majority of tbe country with him.
The assembly is likely to be pro reform, with quite a Republican and centrist majority.
I can see a country led by an investment banker being appealing to some of our City types.0 -
I'm going to blow my own trumpet and note that Marine Le Pen's price has lengthened since it has become apparent that she is through to the last two against Emmanuel Macron.0
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All Price controls = Bad Regardless what the price is of and who suggests them.surbiton said:Energy Cap proposed by Miliband = Bad News. Because Markets know better.
Energy Cap proposed by May = Good News. Because Markets know f-a.
PB Tories = PB Hypocrites
PB Libertarian = Consistent0 -
So far Le Pen is basically sweeping the departements Sarkozy won in 2012 bar Mayenne for Fillon and Macron is winning most of those won by Hollande but Le Pen is leading in the Somme and Charente-Maritime which Hollande won and Melenchon in the Dordogne which Hollande won
http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/?p=compare0 -
Mr. T, the To Win Round One market on Betfair is going a bit mental, bouncing around 3 for Le Pen, 1.3-1.5 for Macron.
Glad I was frit earlier and hedged him at 1.1 (after the initial 1.9 hedging). Green either way now.
As I typed that it changed to 4 and 1.3 respectively.0 -
I don't know the details of this Tory idea so cannot comment.surbiton said:Energy Cap proposed by Miliband = Bad News. Because Markets know better.
Energy Cap proposed by May = Good News. Because Markets know f-a.
PB Tories = PB Hypocrites
It's the fact that they feel that they can make Milibandesque policy proposals and get away with them that I find more interesting.0 -
Interesting – thanks.surbiton said:
The French "exit" polls are not done by asking people questions as they leave the booths but a sample is taken of actual votes. No wonder it is more accurate.bobajobPB said:
If Spin (the TV drama series – Les Homme de l'Ombre) is to be believed, the exit poll is basically assumed to be correct in France. Not sure there any/many recent examples of it failing to pick the winner?SeanT said:
I read that the last French "exit poll" was accurate to within 1 percent?alex. said:It does seem like the "exit poll" is assumed to be so accurate that there isn't actually any interest in external validation of the results as they come in and how they compare with the projections.
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I thought Marseille was Le Pen territory? Or is just the suburbs?NickPalmer said:
Paris and Marseilles not yet included, if I understand the Interior Ministry's figures and map correctly. But DYOR.Big_G_NorthWales said:CNBC - latest Le Pen - 24.8 - Macron 22.19 from the Interior Ministry after 20 million votes
Doesn't that contradict Macron's figures0 -
This is fundamentally different, though. The French "exit poll" is actual votes in actual ballot boxes, with only the analysis differing between the pollsters.AndyJS said:
The American exit polls were always accurate until 2016.SeanT said:
I read that the last French "exit poll" was accurate to within 1 percent?alex. said:It does seem like the "exit poll" is assumed to be so accurate that there isn't actually any interest in external validation of the results as they come in and how they compare with the projections.
The forecasts are all pretty clear now: Le Pen is on 21.7-8%, with Macron on 23.7-24.0%. Interestingly the gap, with Macron getting a little less than 10% more than Le Pen, is the same (relatively) as Brexit.
He will, of course, outpoll her by around 75% in round two.0 -
Is there a link to a map with a running national total?0
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I'm guessing you're not a fanBlack_Rook said:
If the Greens followed through with their own logic then they'd defend Brighton Pavilion, challenge Labour in Bristol West (where they're well-supported and the Tories are pretty weak,) and not bother anywhere else. Would save a tremendous amount of time, money and effort, and allow them to donate the rest of their voters to Labour or the Liberal Democrats.ToryJim said:
If the Greens were a serious political party and not a kind of cod socialist-environmentalist hobby outfit, for Waitrose-shopping yummy mummies who just want to feel smug and morally superior to their neighbours, then they would continue to stand candidates everywhere. Try to build support, overtake their rivals through the force of convincing argument and good policy, and win real power that way.
But they aren't. 0 -
She is on 33% in Somme, a former Socialist heartlandSeanT said:
Le Pen is getting a solid THIRD of the votes in some departements. This is pretty disturbing.HYUFD said:
Le Pen ahead in 13 departements, Macron in 8, Fillon in 1, Melenchon in 1 of those coming in so farSeanT said:
I read that the last French "exit poll" was accurate to within 1 percent?alex. said:It does seem like the "exit poll" is assumed to be so accurate that there isn't actually any interest in external validation of the results as they come in and how they compare with the projections.
http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/.
The last French exit poll got Hollande about right but underestimated Sarkozy0 -
It is going a bit daft. Good money if you believe the exit poll.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. T, the To Win Round One market on Betfair is going a bit mental, bouncing around 3 for Le Pen, 1.3-1.5 for Macron.
Glad I was frit earlier and hedged him at 1.1 (after the initial 1.9 hedging). Green either way now.
As I typed that it changed to 4 and 1.3 respectively.0 -
Did a Green beat you up as a child? I don't recall seeing you so vehemently against a party before.Black_Rook said:
If the Greens followed through with their own logic then they'd defend Brighton Pavilion, challenge Labour in Bristol West (where they're well-supported and the Tories are pretty weak,) and not bother anywhere else. Would save a tremendous amount of time, money and effort, and allow them to donate the rest of their voters to Labour or the Liberal Democrats.ToryJim said:
If the Greens were a serious political party and not a kind of cod socialist-environmentalist hobby outfit, for Waitrose-shopping yummy mummies who just want to feel smug and morally superior to their neighbours, then they would continue to stand candidates everywhere. Try to build support, overtake their rivals through the force of convincing argument and good policy, and win real power that way.
But they aren't.
Not that I disagree. Not a fan of the Greens myself.0 -
In a few years time the EU will be back to the "no one cares" level of irrelevance that pro EU people carped on about in 2014/15Scott_P said:
@carlgardner: Brexit will never again be as popular as it has been this last year. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…SeanT said:Uhm, I thought Leave was going to be reversed, and Brexit halted? If you have now accepted this is bollocks, can I have my £1000? Ta.
@MSmithsonPB: Latest YouGov Brexit right or wrong tracker
Right 44% -2
Wrong 44% +1
DK 12%0 -
That's pretty par for the course in France though. We arrived in Avignon the night Sarkozy was elected in 2007. The next morning the breakfast news was covering "les manifestations anti-Sarkozy" at Place de la Bastille elsewhere as matter-of-factly as the morning traffic update.FrancisUrquhart said:Police have fired tear gas on the Place de la Bastille in eastern Paris as crowds of young people, some from anarchist and anti-fascist groups, gathered to protest at Marine Le Pen’s second-place finish and her hardline, anti-immigrant policies.
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France 24's projections are getting more and more 'tight', with the spread for Le Pen now just 0.3% wide. I assume they know what they're doing.SeanT said:@afneil 2m2 minutes ago
More
TV coverage concentrating on exit polls rather than actual vote. After 20m votes counted, Le Pen on 25%, Macron 22%. Not representative?0 -
MLP won just a single area in 2012 - she's won sixteen so far tonight if I am reading the results properly.0
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*applauds*Black_Rook said:
If the Greens followed through with their own logic then they'd defend Brighton Pavilion, challenge Labour in Bristol West (where they're well-supported and the Tories are pretty weak,) and not bother anywhere else. Would save a tremendous amount of time, money and effort, and allow them to donate the rest of their voters to Labour or the Liberal Democrats.ToryJim said:
If the Greens were a serious political party and not a kind of cod socialist-environmentalist hobby outfit, for Waitrose-shopping yummy mummies who just want to feel smug and morally superior to their neighbours, then they would continue to stand candidates everywhere. Try to build support, overtake their rivals through the force of convincing argument and good policy, and win real power that way.
But they aren't.0 -
http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/?p=compareMikeL said:Is there a link to a map with a running national total?
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They certainly weren't in 2004! "President Kerry"!AndyJS said:
The American exit polls were always accurate until 2016.SeanT said:
I read that the last French "exit poll" was accurate to within 1 percent?alex. said:It does seem like the "exit poll" is assumed to be so accurate that there isn't actually any interest in external validation of the results as they come in and how they compare with the projections.
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Macron still 1.32 to win the first round:
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1290130260 -
I can't see a national total on there.HYUFD said:
http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/?p=compareMikeL said:Is there a link to a map with a running national total?
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Fillon was actually ahead in Paris with Macron second in the latest pollSeanT said:
Yes. Paris will surely nudge Macron into first.NickPalmer said:
Paris and Marseilles not yet included, if I understand the Interior Ministry's figures and map correctly. But DYOR.Big_G_NorthWales said:CNBC - latest Le Pen - 24.8 - Macron 22.19 from the Interior Ministry after 20 million votes
Doesn't that contradict Macron's figures
But this is no disaster for Le Pen.0 -
She's polling about 4% higher than in 2012 almost everywhere, which is why the forecasts for her to get about 22% sound pretty much exactly right.HYUFD said:So far Le Pen is basically sweeping the departements Sarkozy won in 2012 bar Mayenne for Fillon and Macron is winning most of those won by Hollande but Le Pen is leading in the Somme and Charente-Maritime which Hollande won and Melenchon in the Dordogne which Hollande won
http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/?p=compare0 -
No, those were the estimates from the pollsters based off the sampling.rcs1000 said:
France 24's projections are getting more and more 'tight', with the spread for Le Pen now just 0.3% wide. I assume they know what they're doing.SeanT said:@afneil 2m2 minutes ago
More
TV coverage concentrating on exit polls rather than actual vote. After 20m votes counted, Le Pen on 25%, Macron 22%. Not representative?0 -
There are reports in the papers that the French were expecting riots if she made final 2.FrancisUrquhart said:Police have fired tear gas on the Place de la Bastille in eastern Paris as crowds of young people, some from anarchist and anti-fascist groups, gathered to protest at Marine Le Pen’s second-place finish and her hardline, anti-immigrant policies.
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Bloomberg's presenter used the words 'it's unclear' about who was winning earlier.rcs1000 said:
France 24's projections are getting more and more 'tight', with the spread for Le Pen now just 0.3% wide. I assume they know what they're doing.SeanT said:@afneil 2m2 minutes ago
More
TV coverage concentrating on exit polls rather than actual vote. After 20m votes counted, Le Pen on 25%, Macron 22%. Not representative?
MLP up to 20 areas.0 -
Him and his political party, of course.......williamglenn said:
Next time the tide of populism will have receded. Macron will be a hugely significant President.Sean_F said:
The significant fact is that including minor candidates, nearly half the vote went to far right or far left candidates. We were only a few per cent away from a Le Pen/Melenchon run off. Next time, we may get it.rcs1000 said:
She has done much better than her father, largely by ditching the antisemitism (or hiding it away), and pretending not to be a member of the FN. She's moved to a very populist economic message, and away from the nationalist Christian conservative heritage of her party.HYUFD said:
Even now Le Pen is polling 35-40% in the runoff against Macron, Chirac slaughtered Jean Marie Le Pen, Macron may comfortably beat Marine Le Pen but he will not slaughter herfoxinsoxuk said:
Macron will slaughter Le Pen in the second round.SeanT said:
But Macron will only win because he's facing the still-tainted Le Pen.rcs1000 said:
The polls have been pretty accurate in France so far, and they predict a 2:1 win for Macron in round two. That may change, but tonight is a great night for Macron, and an OK night for Le Pen. Remember, just two weeks ago there wasn't a single poll that didn't have Le Pen in front.SeanT said:
Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)dodrade said:Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.
In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
He got 24%, at best. It's not some crowning endorsement or stunning triumph.
The French are confused, conflicted and unhappy, and this is reflected in the wild spread of votes.
That said I hear Macron is a mild Anglophile, and pro-business, so he might be OK for Brexit.
He is less radical than Fillon in his planned economic reforms, but is inclined in the right direction, and much more likely to bring a majority of tbe country with him.
The assembly is likely to be pro reform, with quite a Republican and centrist majority.
She may go forward in the next four years, she may go back. I think it largely depends on whether Macron is able to push through the reforms that France needs. (And it also depends on MLP not being deposed by MMLP.)0
