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Macron LePen.0
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French Exit Poll
Macron 23%
Le Pen 23%
Fillon 19%
Melenchon 19%0 -
A long time ago (at least 30 years) I read that the expression "I'll eat my hat if ..." originally came from the Netherlands, where hatte was a milky preparation fed to kids as a tonic to ensure healthy growth but which was unpleasant to taste. Hence kids would say to mothers or nannies, 'I'll eat my hatte if I get to do/eat x'Black_Rook said:
If Kate Hoey gets turfed out I'll eat my hat*rcs1000 said:
I'm guessing you don't think they'll win Vauxhall either :-)Black_Rook said:
That's not impossible but, as with Hornsey & Wood Green, we're into the territory of guessing whether or not ennui with Corbyn and the EU referendum result are enough for the Lib Dems - who are still polling at half their 2010 strength nationally - to overturn vast Labour majorities in inner city seats where they might otherwise remain strong.Roger said:Interesting but I'd add in Withington. No one seems to fancy them but they only lost the seat in 2015 because of their dirty deal with the Tories and as that's now forgotten and Corbyn is disliked and the previous popular MP is standing again and it's strongly Remain I think the chances are much better than the basic necessary swing suggests.
Labour start in that constituency with an absolute majority of all votes cast, the national swings from Lab to LD are significant but not huge, and the also-ran vote is largely Tory and Ukip. I don't rate the Lib Dems' chances that highly.
(*A tasty biscuit hat, baked lovingly with my own fair hands. But my hat, nonetheless.)
Never seen that explanation elsewhere since and have long since misplaced the book I read it in - can't even remember the title, but it was on the origins of English.
I prefer it to any other explanation I have read elsewhere, regardless of veracity.0 -
le pen and macron into second round.0
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So, with a very accurate sampling method, no way Macron isn't in top two, presidency decided. That result for the Socialists though, oof, it's embarrassing.0
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Macron nailed on then in round 2.nunu said:le pen and macron into second round.
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France 24 Macron 23.7, Le Pen 21.7 others 19.50
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Guys the official prediction poll has gone Macron 23 and a bit, Le Pen 21.7.0
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That was two years ago. And they were 15 seats out!Casino_Royale said:Conservatives.. largest party.
316 seats.0 -
Macron 23.7 Le Pen 21.70
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French polling was pretty good, all in all.0
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BONG.Casino_Royale said:Conservatives.. largest party.
316 seats.0 -
Macron 23.7
Le Pen 21.7
Fillon 19.5
Melechon 19.50 -
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The exit poll certainly very close to the earlier polls. A tiny reservation that we still haven't got any counted votes. But the margins look convincing.Interesting that the ISIS attack doesn't seem to have given Le Pen a boost.0
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Macron backable at 1.19 for the Presidency on Betfair.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28010557/market?marketId=1.1171799830 -
They are counted votes! See Guardian live blog for details.NickPalmer said:The exit poll certainly very close to the earlier polls. A tiny reservation that we still haven't got any counted votes. But the margins look convincing.Interesting that the ISIS attack doesn't seem to have given Le Pen a boost.
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Well, I'll still be ahead, but I wish Le Pen had been knocked out. With under 20% of the vote.
Ah well. Still my first ever leadership/presidential market where I'm ahead.0 -
BBC: Centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen to contest French run-off, projected results say.0
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Will PP pay out on Macron early?0
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Just bet on Con gains now and you'll be in profit by tomorrow.kle4 said:
It's not early Monday? Lame.MarkSenior said:
You've got another 24 hours before that Welsh poll comes outkle4 said:If Macron looks to be well ahead according to the official exit poll, I won't bother following matters - it doesn't seem like it will matter how everything else shakes out if that is true, so it'd be dull.
Just waiting on that Welsh polling - with the Scottish stuff setting the stage for huuuge expectations for the Tories, if it shows anything less than a sizable Tory majority in Wales (seats), that'd be a let down.
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I guess that there is slightly more chance of error in France than previously, as their choice of which polling stations to sample is based on past elections, and this one is really quite different in terms of the parties in contention.
However, it does look as if it's broadly bearing out the polling and Macron and Le Pen are actually relatively comfortably through.0 -
Balls.Paristonda said:le pen macron!! 23 each!
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Nick that official poll is a sample of actual votes. Bound to be some margin of error but you'd assume they've got a decent samplingNickPalmer said:The exit poll certainly very close to the earlier polls. A tiny reservation that we still haven't got any counted votes. But the margins look convincing.Interesting that the ISIS attack doesn't seem to have given Le Pen a boost.
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Phew.
Looks like my book will come out at £25 or £50 which is useful considering it was underwater for most of the campaign.0 -
End of the two party system in France.0
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That would be amazingMorris_Dancer said:On my Twitter list about politics:
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/856169359613493248
For those interested, Sportsbook (Betfair) has Lib Dems at 51. Greens, also reportedly standing, are 501.
Could Corbyn be thrown out by the electorate?
Labour had a very strong result there last time.
Edited extra bit: ahem, the 'interesting' tweet is this:
https://twitter.com/jimmy_wales/status/8558488344544829450 -
Now just a question of how well Le Pen might manage. Presumably much better than her dad's 17%, so time to improve on that for when Le Pen III has a go. Though having stumbled from topping the first round as long expected, perhaps it won't be as good a runner up as she'd like.0
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NEW THREAD
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With barely 1% it pretty much is a first wave exit poll and it least in sampling is what Curtice tries to do even if you have to wait a little longer for the actual votes to be countedAndyJS said:
To be pedantic, it's not really an exit poll, it's based on actual vote counts in selected areas that are calculated to be representative.HYUFD said:French Exit Poll
Macron 23%
Le Pen 23%
Fillon 19%
Melenchon 19%0 -
Is he standing?Alistair said:
Balls.Paristonda said:le pen macron!! 23 each!
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Ah, I see - thanks. But are these various estimates coming out all exit polls?rcs1000 said:
They are counted votes! See Guardian live blog for details.NickPalmer said:The exit poll certainly very close to the earlier polls. A tiny reservation that we still haven't got any counted votes. But the margins look convincing.Interesting that the ISIS attack doesn't seem to have given Le Pen a boost.
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Ahead of an avalanche of constituency odds likely to appear over the next 48 hours (including those from the somewhat laid back it has to be said Shadsy), could someone please produce a list of Labour seats with a 5,000 - 10,000 majority with the Tories in second place. If there are gems to be found, it's probably within that parameter.
Although I suggested Margaret Beckett as a credible candidate to become the next Speaker, her 8.8k majority in low turnout Derby South appears to be at risk with the Tories also set to grab a good share of the 10% UKIP vote in 2015. Last time I looked Betfair Sportsbook's odds were 11/2.
DYOR0 -
Whatever your opinion of Macron, you've got to say "Chapeau". He has won as an independent. Remarkable achievement!0
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New thread0
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Nominations don't close for weeks yet! I reckon that Jezza will be up against at least a dozen candidates! Mrs May likewise.Freggles said:
That would be amazingMorris_Dancer said:On my Twitter list about politics:
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/856169359613493248
For those interested, Sportsbook (Betfair) has Lib Dems at 51. Greens, also reportedly standing, are 501.
Could Corbyn be thrown out by the electorate?
Labour had a very strong result there last time.
Edited extra bit: ahem, the 'interesting' tweet is this:
https://twitter.com/jimmy_wales/status/8558488344544829450 -
Peter. Yes. I can do this for you.peter_from_putney said:Ahead of an avalanche of constituency odds likely to appear over the next 48 hours (including those from the somewhat laid back it has to be said Shadsy), could someone please produce a list of Labour seats with a 5,000 - 10,000 majority with the Tories in second place. If there are gems to be found, it's probably within that parameter.
Although I suggested Margaret Beckett as a credible candidate to become the next Speaker, her 8.8k majority in low turnout Derby South appears to be at risk with the Tories also set to grab a good share of the 10% UKIP vote in 2015.
DYOR
Can we agree an hourly rate for the work and I'll crack on ....0 -
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/labour-defence/peter_from_putney said:Ahead of an avalanche of constituency odds likely to appear over the next 48 hours (including those from the somewhat laid back it has to be said Shadsy), could someone please produce a list of Labour seats with a 5,000 - 10,000 majority with the Tories in second place. If there are gems to be found, it's probably within that parameter.
Although I suggested Margaret Beckett as a credible candidate to become the next Speaker, her 8.8k majority in low turnout Derby South appears to be at risk with the Tories also set to grab a good share of the 10% UKIP vote in 2015.
DYOR0 -
MTimT said:
A long time ago (at least 30 years) I read that the expression "I'll eat my hat if ..." originally came from the Netherlands, where hatte was a milky preparation fed to kids as a tonic to ensure healthy growth but which was unpleasant to taste. Hence kids would say to mothers or nannies, 'I'll eat my hatte if I get to do/eat x'Black_Rook said:
If Kate Hoey gets turfed out I'll eat my hat*rcs1000 said:
I'm guessing you don't think they'll win Vauxhall either :-)Black_Rook said:
That's not impossible but, as with Hornsey & Wood Green, we're into the territory of guessing whether or not ennui with Corbyn and the EU referendum result are enough for the Lib Dems - who are still polling at half their 2010 strength nationally - to overturn vast Labour majorities in inner city seats where they might otherwise remain strong.Roger said:Interesting but I'd add in Withington. No one seems to fancy them but they only lost the seat in 2015 because of their dirty deal with the Tories and as that's now forgotten and Corbyn is disliked and the previous popular MP is standing again and it's strongly Remain I think the chances are much better than the basic necessary swing suggests.
Labour start in that constituency with an absolute majority of all votes cast, the national swings from Lab to LD are significant but not huge, and the also-ran vote is largely Tory and Ukip. I don't rate the Lib Dems' chances that highly.
(*A tasty biscuit hat, baked lovingly with my own fair hands. But my hat, nonetheless.)
Never seen that explanation elsewhere since and have long since misplaced the book I read it in - can't even remember the title, but it was on the origins of English.
I prefer it to any other explanation I have read elsewhere, regardless of veracity.
I haven't hear that particular explanation before, but while dating a Dutch Girl for 2 years I realised that there are a lot of English words and expressions with Dutch backgrounds, that have come into the English lagwage, sometimes with a lot of distortion, so I could well believe the 'eat my hat' story.
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So what is the downside to putting a chunk of money on Macron now at 1.15 or whatever? When is the 2nd round - terrorist activities or something coming out about Macron? and how does the probability of that compare with the odds? Or are there better things on the UK election rather than french leadership?0
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Thanks for your very generous offer stjohn, but as you'll see upthread AndyJS has already provided this for free!stjohn said:
Peter. Yes. I can do this for you.peter_from_putney said:Ahead of an avalanche of constituency odds likely to appear over the next 48 hours (including those from the somewhat laid back it has to be said Shadsy), could someone please produce a list of Labour seats with a 5,000 - 10,000 majority with the Tories in second place. If there are gems to be found, it's probably within that parameter.
Although I suggested Margaret Beckett as a credible candidate to become the next Speaker, her 8.8k majority in low turnout Derby South appears to be at risk with the Tories also set to grab a good share of the 10% UKIP vote in 2015.
DYOR
Can we agree an hourly rate for the work and I'll crack on ....0 -
Wut? What is it with free money at the moment?Sandpit said:Macron backable at 1.19 for the Presidency on Betfair.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28010557/market?marketId=1.1171799830 -
Many thanks Andy .... what an obliging fellow you are.AndyJS said:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/labour-defence/peter_from_putney said:Ahead of an avalanche of constituency odds likely to appear over the next 48 hours (including those from the somewhat laid back it has to be said Shadsy), could someone please produce a list of Labour seats with a 5,000 - 10,000 majority with the Tories in second place. If there are gems to be found, it's probably within that parameter.
Although I suggested Margaret Beckett as a credible candidate to become the next Speaker, her 8.8k majority in low turnout Derby South appears to be at risk with the Tories also set to grab a good share of the 10% UKIP vote in 2015.
DYOR0 -
I might do a more comprehensive one which includes all Labour seats.peter_from_putney said:
Many thanks Andy .... what an obliging fellow you are.AndyJS said:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/labour-defence/peter_from_putney said:Ahead of an avalanche of constituency odds likely to appear over the next 48 hours (including those from the somewhat laid back it has to be said Shadsy), could someone please produce a list of Labour seats with a 5,000 - 10,000 majority with the Tories in second place. If there are gems to be found, it's probably within that parameter.
Although I suggested Margaret Beckett as a credible candidate to become the next Speaker, her 8.8k majority in low turnout Derby South appears to be at risk with the Tories also set to grab a good share of the 10% UKIP vote in 2015.
DYOR0 -
Sad to see an honest craftsman undercut on price like that. I blame Globalisation.peter_from_putney said:
Thanks for your very generous offer stjohn, but as you'll see upthread AndyJS has already provided this for free!stjohn said:
Peter. Yes. I can do this for you.peter_from_putney said:Ahead of an avalanche of constituency odds likely to appear over the next 48 hours (including those from the somewhat laid back it has to be said Shadsy), could someone please produce a list of Labour seats with a 5,000 - 10,000 majority with the Tories in second place. If there are gems to be found, it's probably within that parameter.
Although I suggested Margaret Beckett as a credible candidate to become the next Speaker, her 8.8k majority in low turnout Derby South appears to be at risk with the Tories also set to grab a good share of the 10% UKIP vote in 2015.
DYOR
Can we agree an hourly rate for the work and I'll crack on ....0 -
Hamon says vote for Macron. Wauquiez, member of the Republicans, keeps his counsel.0
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(moved to new thread)0
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Macron, il a l'air un peu Cleggois, n'est-ce pas?0
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:-)augustus_carp said:
Sad to see an honest craftsman undercut on price like that. I blame Globalisation.peter_from_putney said:
Thanks for your very generous offer stjohn, but as you'll see upthread AndyJS has already provided this for free!stjohn said:
Peter. Yes. I can do this for you.peter_from_putney said:Ahead of an avalanche of constituency odds likely to appear over the next 48 hours (including those from the somewhat laid back it has to be said Shadsy), could someone please produce a list of Labour seats with a 5,000 - 10,000 majority with the Tories in second place. If there are gems to be found, it's probably within that parameter.
Although I suggested Margaret Beckett as a credible candidate to become the next Speaker, her 8.8k majority in low turnout Derby South appears to be at risk with the Tories also set to grab a good share of the 10% UKIP vote in 2015.
DYOR
Can we agree an hourly rate for the work and I'll crack on ....0 -
FPT because my timing's awful.
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This is the best-informed political site in the UK, imo, even aside from the betting, not to mention the most literate, relaxed and bloody witty.
You chaps keep me up late most election-campaign nights, just (but not only) for the craic as my Irish grandmother would Ave It, and this is the best possible place for a polanorak to spend election night. Better than being at the count, for sure.
Many thanks to all. (Even the rude posters. With three exceptions. You know who you are.) Particularly OGH and the mod team.0
