Low turnout in Paris. Looks bad for Macron. 64.51% at 5pm. Average 69.42%. Bouches-du-Rhônes 70.70%, Nord 70.71%, Pas-de-Calais 69.75%, Alpes-de-Haute-Provence 71.83%. (This is assuming Parisians don't have a known tendency to flock to the polling booths in the early evening.)
In 2012, turnout when polls closed was 79.48% and in Paris it was 80.15%. (This is using the French method that for the headline turnout figures counts blank and spoilt ballots as votes . Paris was still higher than average in 2012 if only valid votes are counted.)
Macron has underperformed.
Just became favourite on Betfair to win 1st round. Interesting split between the (sensible, in my view) comments on PB and the punters (either irrational or with other knowledge) elsewhere.
Despite all the talk of "progressive alliances" and especially "remain/soft brexit alliances", does anyone think that if there is tactical voting on a large scale it is more likely to benefit the Tories? (be it pro-leave tactical voting and/or anti-indy voting in Scotland). LibDems seem to be pinning their hopes of Tories prioritising voting for Remain over voting Tory, but I don't see it in large numbers. That ship has sailed, and it is easy enough to rationalise voting Tory as the best route to "soft" Brexit.
No, getting rid of Corbyn is the answer to Labour's problems. Well not all of them, but it's a start.
It's barely a start - the public have taken to May, not with huge enthusiasm, but I think they see her as safe and steady in a difficult period. Her appeal is of course enhanced by Corbyn but it is deeper than just dislike of him. Her votes will come predominantly from the 'duller' parts of the electorate in the parts of Britain about which the metropolitico journalists know little, dislike and would prefer to ignore. There are a few posters on here with similar views - they detest what JC has done to 'their' party but end up taking greater comfort in sneering at May and worse because in the end their tribalism is more important than the country but they don't like to admit it. I voted Remain and can say with total convictionthe the best prospect for a half-decent Brexit will come from a May led government with a 50+ majority.
I also have zero sympathy for the Labour MPS who have effectively allowed this shambles in the party to moulder on for the past few years and yet have the gall now to beg for sympathy votes on the basis of a vague promise not to back JC for PM. Anyone who believes such trite nonsense deserves him as PM next June.
May has massive approval ratings, there isn't much any opposition leader can do about that. BUT you ought to be providing an alternative. The omens and landscape were tough for Ed Miliband with regards to Scotland in particular but vs the Conservatives his results were more or less a wash, a sort of WIlliam Hague vs Blair 2001 scenario (reversed). Labour ought to have their Howard by now - pushing forward, perhaps a few council gains in the May elections. Instead Corbyn is turning the seat I'm in, which has been Labour forever into a relatively safe seat - for the Tories !
May does indeed have high approval ratings but why, beyond the double whammy of not being Jeremy Corbyn or David Cameron? Is there really wild enthusiasm for Mayism, whatever that is? Labour's (and the LibDems') best shot might be to try and get the Conservative Party to commit to anything at all. The PM claims to want a mandate, but for what? Brexit means Brexit is a slogan, not a policy. What lies behind dropping the tax pledges?
If Theresa May can be nailed down on any issue, there will inevitably be voters who disagree with her.
Despite all the talk of "progressive alliances" and especially "remain/soft brexit alliances", does anyone think that if there is tactical voting on a large scale it is more likely to benefit the Tories? (be it pro-leave tactical voting and/or anti-indy voting in Scotland). LibDems seem to be pinning their hopes of Tories prioritising voting for Remain over voting Tory, but I don't see it in large numbers. That ship has sailed, and it is easy enough to rationalise voting Tory as the best route to "soft" Brexit.
Not sure, but I think UKIP to Tory switchers will outnumber left wing tactical voters in any case. And that's before we get Lab to Tory switchers.
Policies are so overrated. I am increasingly convinced that it is a general assessment of leadership and competence that influences the majority of voters. This is why leadership performance is such a good indicator of electoral results. And why Labour have such obvious problems.
It is down to either not good or absolutely rubbish, hobson's choice and more decline for UK guaranteed.
Thinking about Theresa May's premiership so far, do you think Theresa May has followed a similar course to David Cameron and this is a good thing : 8 Theresa May has followed a similar course to David Cameron and this is a bad thing: 15 Theresa May has changed direction from David Cameron's government and this is a good thing : 35 Theresa May has changed direction from David Cameron's government and this is a bad thing: 13
Would she say she has changed direction or not though?
Remember - we pay attention - the voters don't - so what they will pick up is changes of tone & style - rather than detail (which in policy terms is very similar) - and in tone & style there has been a significant change (hence the lamentations of the posh boys) - the Middle Class are recapturing the country - and taking the workers with them....
Corbyn quote "We’re here today to say that we don’t agree with these drones. We don’t agree with this obscenity that’s going on before our very eyes here. That’s why just as much as we want to get rid of land mines, small arms, nuclear weapons, we want to get rid of drones as well."
Small arms??? wtf does he want to leave us with?????
As I keep saying I can't see the campaign improving Labour's position, and day by day Corbyn and co. provide more evidence to back up my assertion. Maybe something like Canada in 1993 is what we ought to be pondering?
Sadly not. Labour is not facing wipeout, or anything remotely close.
There just isn't the strength of opposition in the bulk of the deep heartland: inner city (and Welsh valleys) seats with relatively high multiple indices of deprivation, or low turnout/low electorate size, or large BAME votes, or (more often than not) all three. And requiring staggering swings, with no strong opposition party available to achieve them.
Even Baxter's latest prediction, which I posted earlier - Tory majority 170 - still leaves Labour with 161 seats, which is broadly comparable to the Tories in 1997.
Yes I would agree similar.result to 1997 but in reverse.The conservatives went for Hague and seat wise did nothing four years later.Who will Labour go for as they might have a chance to improve on that if Brexit has its economic problems.There was no real problems for the UK during that period even though Hague tried to say there would be with the 1998 Asian financial crisis.
I'm on the Lib Dems in Hornsey & Wood Green at 3/1 and I'm very happy with that. I shall explain my logic, which has relevance for other seats, in a thread header when I get the time.
That would be interesting to hear. You are sceptical (as I am) of a major LD revival in this election, IIRC. However, I wouldn't necessarily have chosen Hornsey as one of the prime Lib Dem targets...
Low turnout in Paris. Looks bad for Macron. 64.51% at 5pm. Average 69.42%. Bouches-du-Rhônes 70.70%, Nord 70.71%, Pas-de-Calais 69.75%, Alpes-de-Haute-Provence 71.83%. (This is assuming Parisians don't have a known tendency to flock to the polling booths in the early evening.)
In 2012, turnout when polls closed was 79.48% and in Paris it was 80.15%. (This is using the French method that for the headline turnout figures counts blank and spoilt ballots as votes . Paris was still higher than average in 2012 if only valid votes are counted.)
Macron has underperformed.
Do the bain lieues count as Paris. Hollande did very well in them last time. It could be that's where turnout is down. If so, it may not harm Macron too much.
At least most of the banlieues are outside the Paris department now, There was a reorganisation in 2015, so some were inside "Seine" in 2012, but the turnout figures for both 2012 and 2017 say "Paris".
I'm on the Lib Dems in Hornsey & Wood Green at 3/1 and I'm very happy with that. I shall explain my logic, which has relevance for other seats, in a thread header when I get the time.
With many more bookies about to offer constituency markets, it would be good if those PB.com punters passing on the benefit of their wisdom would mention with which bookie they have placed their bets, as indeed I did when suggesting an investment on the LibDems at 25/1 to retain Richmond Park
Corbyn quote "We’re here today to say that we don’t agree with these drones. We don’t agree with this obscenity that’s going on before our very eyes here. That’s why just as much as we want to get rid of land mines, small arms, nuclear weapons, we want to get rid of drones as well."
Small arms??? wtf does he want to leave us with?????
Medium sized arms. You know, something larger than rifle, but smaller a jeep. Something cheap, reliable, and useless.
A lot of his friends use AK-47s, so perhaps that's what he's used to?
No, getting rid of Corbyn is the answer to Labour's problems. Well not all of them, but it's a start.
It's barely a start - the public have taken to May, not with huge enthusiasm, but I think they see her as safe and steady in a difficult period. Her appeal is of course enhanced by Corbyn but it is deeper than just dislike of him. Her votes will come predominantly from the 'duller' parts of the electorate in the parts of Britain about which the metropolitico journalists know little, dislike and would prefer to ignore. There are a few posters on here with similar views - they detest what JC has done to 'their' party but end up taking greater comfort in sneering at May and worse because in the end their tribalism is more important than the country but they don't like to admit it. I voted Remain and can say with total convictionthe the best prospect for a half-decent Brexit will come from a May led government with a 50+ majority.
I also have zero sympathy for the Labour MPS who have effectively allowed this shambles in the party to moulder on for the past few years and yet have the gall now to beg for sympathy votes on the basis of a vague promise not to back JC for PM. Anyone who believes such trite nonsense deserves him as PM next June.
May has massive approval ratings, there isn't much any opposition leader can do about that. BUT you ought to be providing an alternative. The omens and landscape were tough for Ed Miliband with regards to Scotland in particular but vs the Conservatives his results were more or less a wash, a sort of WIlliam Hague vs Blair 2001 scenario (reversed). Labour ought to have their Howard by now - pushing forward, perhaps a few council gains in the May elections. Instead Corbyn is turning the seat I'm in, which has been Labour forever into a relatively safe seat - for the Tories !
May does indeed have high approval ratings but why, beyond the double whammy of not being Jeremy Corbyn or David Cameron? Is there really wild enthusiasm for Mayism, whatever that is? Labour's (and the LibDems') best shot might be to try and get the Conservative Party to commit to anything at all. The PM claims to want a mandate, but for what? Brexit means Brexit is a slogan, not a policy. What lies behind dropping the tax pledges?
If Theresa May can be nailed down on any issue, there will inevitably be voters who disagree with her.
I think her popularity is largely based on her perceived 'dullness'. This is why the political class don't get it - they thrive on lots of bells and whistles - no point in talking to them otherwise. The public who will decide the election just want stability and steady now.
Thinking about Theresa May's premiership so far, do you think Theresa May has followed a similar course to David Cameron and this is a good thing : 8 Theresa May has followed a similar course to David Cameron and this is a bad thing: 15 Theresa May has changed direction from David Cameron's government and this is a good thing : 35 Theresa May has changed direction from David Cameron's government and this is a bad thing: 13
Would she say she has changed direction or not though?
Remember - we pay attention - the voters don't - so what they will pick up is changes of tone & style - rather than detail (which in policy terms is very similar) - and in tone & style there has been a significant change (hence the lamentations of the posh boys) - the Middle Class are recapturing the country - and taking the workers with them....
Whatever she is saying and doing (or not saying and doing) is definitely being liked in the country at the moment, there's little doubt.
Policies are so overrated. I am increasingly convinced that it is a general assessment of leadership and competence that influences the majority of voters. This is why leadership performance is such a good indicator of electoral results. And why Labour have such obvious problems.
It is down to either not good or absolutely rubbish, hobson's choice and more decline for UK guaranteed.
I'm on the Lib Dems in Hornsey & Wood Green at 3/1 and I'm very happy with that. I shall explain my logic, which has relevance for other seats, in a thread header when I get the time.
With many more bookies about to offer constituency markets, it would be good if those PB.com punters passing on the benefit of their wisdom would mention with which bookie they have placed their bets, as indeed I did when suggesting an investment on the LibDems at 25/1 to retain Richmond Park
This was with Betfair Sportsbook but those odds are no longer available, I think.
I'm on the Lib Dems in Hornsey & Wood Green at 3/1 and I'm very happy with that. I shall explain my logic, which has relevance for other seats, in a thread header when I get the time.
With many more bookies about to offer constituency markets, it would be good if those PB.com punters passing on the benefit of their wisdom would mention with which bookie they have placed their bets, as indeed I did when suggesting an investment on the LibDems at 25/1 to retain Richmond Park
This was with Betfair Sportsbook but those odds are no longer available, I think.
I noticed both them and PP seem to have almost no seats up for seats which went from LD -> Tory in 2015. 12/1 on Bob Russell to retake Colchester seems a bit generous though. Solid 12% majority, but not an overwhelming task if the LDs are to win 25+ seats.
The other point of view, of course, is that 12/1 is accurate and shows well why the LDs won't win 25+ seats.
I'm on the Lib Dems in Hornsey & Wood Green at 3/1 and I'm very happy with that. I shall explain my logic, which has relevance for other seats, in a thread header when I get the time.
That would be interesting to hear. You are sceptical (as I am) of a major LD revival in this election, IIRC. However, I wouldn't necessarily have chosen Hornsey as one of the prime Lib Dem targets...
I think Alistair Meeks is quite right about this seat.
I'm on the Lib Dems in Hornsey & Wood Green at 3/1 and I'm very happy with that. I shall explain my logic, which has relevance for other seats, in a thread header when I get the time.
That would be interesting to hear. You are sceptical (as I am) of a major LD revival in this election, IIRC. However, I wouldn't necessarily have chosen Hornsey as one of the prime Lib Dem targets...
Is that not Lynne Featherstones old seat?
Correct. Currently held by a Catherine West for Labour, with a majority of eleven thousand.
I'm not familiar with this MP. A quick readaround suggests she is (a) one of the Morons and (b) a Continuity Remainer. The second characteristic, at least, should help in her defence of the seat.
Corbyn quote "We’re here today to say that we don’t agree with these drones. We don’t agree with this obscenity that’s going on before our very eyes here. That’s why just as much as we want to get rid of land mines, small arms, nuclear weapons, we want to get rid of drones as well."
Small arms??? wtf does he want to leave us with?????
As I keep saying I can't see the campaign improving Labour's position, and day by day Corbyn and co. provide more evidence to back up my assertion. Maybe something like Canada in 1993 is what we ought to be pondering?
Sadly not. Labour is not facing wipeout, or anything remotely close.
There just isn't the strength of opposition in the bulk of the deep heartland: inner city (and Welsh valleys) seats with relatively high multiple indices of deprivation, or low turnout/low electorate size, or large BAME votes, or (more often than not) all three. And requiring staggering swings, with no strong opposition party available to achieve them.
Even Baxter's latest prediction, which I posted earlier - Tory majority 170 - still leaves Labour with 161 seats, which is broadly comparable to the Tories in 1997.
Yes I would agree similar.result to 1997 but in reverse.The conservatives went for Hague and seat wise did nothing four years later.Who will Labour go for as they might have a chance to improve on that if Brexit has its economic problems.There was no real problems for the UK during that period even though Hague tried to say there would be with the 1998 Asian financial crisis.
Assuming the expected defeat, the next big question is whether or not Corbyn goes at all.
Thinking about Theresa May's premiership so far, do you think Theresa May has followed a similar course to David Cameron and this is a good thing : 8 Theresa May has followed a similar course to David Cameron and this is a bad thing: 15 Theresa May has changed direction from David Cameron's government and this is a good thing : 35 Theresa May has changed direction from David Cameron's government and this is a bad thing: 13
Would she say she has changed direction or not though?
Remember - we pay attention - the voters don't - so what they will pick up is changes of tone & style - rather than detail (which in policy terms is very similar) - and in tone & style there has been a significant change (hence the lamentations of the posh boys) - the Middle Class are recapturing the country - and taking the workers with them....
Whatever she is saying and doing (or not saying and doing) is definitely being liked in the country at the moment, there's little doubt.
Who do you think is better at the job of Prime Minister? David Cameron: 24 Theresa May: 38
Cameron's fans are in Labour (37) and the Lib Dems (47) - Cons rate him at 14.
Sunday Politics Wales were in Newport spoke to two voters one a life long Labour supporter said May had to be given a good majority so she can get a good deal for Britain and it hurts me to have to vote Con but i will - then female voter said country is going downhill wont vote Tory but may vote Labour as Corbyn is only one speaking sense!
I'm on the Lib Dems in Hornsey & Wood Green at 3/1 and I'm very happy with that. I shall explain my logic, which has relevance for other seats, in a thread header when I get the time.
That would be interesting to hear. You are sceptical (as I am) of a major LD revival in this election, IIRC. However, I wouldn't necessarily have chosen Hornsey as one of the prime Lib Dem targets...
Is that not Lynne Featherstones old seat?
. A quick readaround suggests she is (a) one of the Morons
Corbyn quote "We’re here today to say that we don’t agree with these drones. We don’t agree with this obscenity that’s going on before our very eyes here. That’s why just as much as we want to get rid of land mines, small arms, nuclear weapons, we want to get rid of drones as well."
Small arms??? wtf does he want to leave us with?????
As I keep saying I can't see the campaign improving Labour's position, and day by day Corbyn and co. provide more evidence to back up my assertion. Maybe something like Canada in 1993 is what we ought to be pondering?
Sadly not. Labour is not facing wipeout, or anything remotely close.
There just isn't the strength of opposition in the bulk of the deep heartland: inner city (and Welsh valleys) seats with relatively high multiple indices of deprivation, or low turnout/low electorate size, or large BAME votes, or (more often than not) all three. And requiring staggering swings, with no strong opposition party available to achieve them.
Even Baxter's latest prediction, which I posted earlier - Tory majority 170 - still leaves Labour with 161 seats, which is broadly comparable to the Tories in 1997.
161 seat projection now, and the campaign has barely even started. I am betting on Labour < 150 seats.
But it becomes an extinction level event when Corbyn refuses to step down after defeat, or agrees to stand down only if he has some kind of say in his successor. Then you get SDP2 and both Rump Labour and SDP2 are destroyed by FPTP next time round.
To people who would say, of course Corbyn will stand down in June... what evidence have you seen that would suggest that so far?
He will not go on for another five years.Thetefore it would suggest a new younger leader for the party conference in September to start the long way back.I think they would go for Emily Thornberry.
I'm on the Lib Dems in Hornsey & Wood Green at 3/1 and I'm very happy with that. I shall explain my logic, which has relevance for other seats, in a thread header when I get the time.
With many more bookies about to offer constituency markets, it would be good if those PB.com punters passing on the benefit of their wisdom would mention with which bookie they have placed their bets, as indeed I did when suggesting an investment on the LibDems at 25/1 to retain Richmond Park
This was with Betfair Sportsbook but those odds are no longer available, I think.
You're not wrong - the odds have since shortened to 2.3/1
When do we get the big reveal of all of the manifestos'? I suspect the Tories will be light on too many commitments.
The labour manifesto might has well have every wet dream of a policy that Corbyn et al have ever had for the good it will do them.
Nice username.
No announced dates on when they will all be out, doubt it will be for a few weeks at least, just drips of policies.
I take it all back, May is fantastic
The Prime Minister will consider scrapping the Government’s flagship High Speed rail scheme HS2 after being lobbied by hostile MPs to ditch the £56billion project in the Conservative Party manifesto.
Thinking about Theresa May's premiership so far, do you think Theresa May has followed a similar course to David Cameron and this is a good thing : 8 Theresa May has followed a similar course to David Cameron and this is a bad thing: 15 Theresa May has changed direction from David Cameron's government and this is a good thing : 35 Theresa May has changed direction from David Cameron's government and this is a bad thing: 13
Would she say she has changed direction or not though?
Remember - we pay attention - the voters don't - so what they will pick up is changes of tone & style - rather than detail (which in policy terms is very similar) - and in tone & style there has been a significant change (hence the lamentations of the posh boys) - the Middle Class are recapturing the country - and taking the workers with them....
Whatever she is saying and doing (or not saying and doing) is definitely being liked in the country at the moment, there's little doubt.
I'm on the Lib Dems in Hornsey & Wood Green at 3/1 and I'm very happy with that. I shall explain my logic, which has relevance for other seats, in a thread header when I get the time.
That would be interesting to hear. You are sceptical (as I am) of a major LD revival in this election, IIRC. However, I wouldn't necessarily have chosen Hornsey as one of the prime Lib Dem targets...
Is that not Lynne Featherstones old seat?
. A quick readaround suggests she is (a) one of the Morons
Ha, we all know what that means.
Are you sure that's correct? The morons were the ones who voted for him "to widen the debate". Her background suggests she might have been a genuine supporter?
I'm on the Lib Dems in Hornsey & Wood Green at 3/1 and I'm very happy with that. I shall explain my logic, which has relevance for other seats, in a thread header when I get the time.
That would be interesting to hear. You are sceptical (as I am) of a major LD revival in this election, IIRC. However, I wouldn't necessarily have chosen Hornsey as one of the prime Lib Dem targets...
Is that not Lynne Featherstones old seat?
Correct. Currently held by a Catherine West for Labour, with a majority of eleven thousand.
I'm not familiar with this MP. A quick readaround suggests she is (a) one of the Morons and (b) a Continuity Remainer. The second characteristic, at least, should help in her defence of the seat.
Very left-wing, Australian background, former leader of Islington Council
Low turnout in Paris. Looks bad for Macron. 64.51% at 5pm. Average 69.42%. Bouches-du-Rhônes 70.70%, Nord 70.71%, Pas-de-Calais 69.75%, Alpes-de-Haute-Provence 71.83%. (This is assuming Parisians don't have a known tendency to flock to the polling booths in the early evening.)
In 2012, turnout when polls closed was 79.48% and in Paris it was 80.15%. (This is using the French method that for the headline turnout figures counts blank and spoilt ballots as votes . Paris was still higher than average in 2012 if only valid votes are counted.)
Macron has underperformed.
Do the bain lieues count as Paris. Hollande did very well in them last time. It could be that's where turnout is down. If so, it may not harm Macron too much.
At least most of the banlieues are outside the Paris department now, There was a reorganisation in 2015, so some were inside "Seine" in 2012, but the turnout figures for both 2012 and 2017 say "Paris".
I was mistaken here. "Seine" was abolished as a department in 1968, and split into four. So we're OK, and assuming Parisians don't tend to vote at the last minute, turnout in Paris, excluding most of the banlieues, is significantly down. Looks like Macron has been walloped.
Oddly, there is an element of truth in his defenders' point that he isn't that left wing...
True, as far as it goes - plus he is obviously not very bright.
His 'ultra' image may have something to do with his very much smarter operator minder, Milne, and his pitiless, Maoist crown prince, McDonnell. Buy Cuddly Corby, get those two evil bastards.
As long as they don't scrap the Help to Buy ISA i'm happy!
I think it will be wound down from next year, although a cash LISA should be available in the next few months. Unless you are buying very soon there is no difference.
If so, I wonder who the next great centrist hope will be. Basically just Trudeau at the moment.
He should get on to Betfair quick.
The 1st round winner market can hardly split LP/Macron. The other two are out with the washing. If the billy bunters are even nearly right, Macron is next President of France.
I'm on the Lib Dems in Hornsey & Wood Green at 3/1 and I'm very happy with that. I shall explain my logic, which has relevance for other seats, in a thread header when I get the time.
That would be interesting to hear. You are sceptical (as I am) of a major LD revival in this election, IIRC. However, I wouldn't necessarily have chosen Hornsey as one of the prime Lib Dem targets...
Is that not Lynne Featherstones old seat?
. A quick readaround suggests she is (a) one of the Morons
Ha, we all know what that means.
Are you sure that's correct? The morons were the ones who voted for him "to widen the debate". Her background suggests she might have been a genuine supporter?
Low turnout in Paris. Looks bad for Macron. 64.51% at 5pm. Average 69.42%. Bouches-du-Rhônes 70.70%, Nord 70.71%, Pas-de-Calais 69.75%, Alpes-de-Haute-Provence 71.83%. (This is assuming Parisians don't have a known tendency to flock to the polling booths in the early evening.)
In 2012, turnout when polls closed was 79.48% and in Paris it was 80.15%. (This is using the French method that for the headline turnout figures counts blank and spoilt ballots as votes . Paris was still higher than average in 2012 if only valid votes are counted.)
Macron has underperformed.
Do the bain lieues count as Paris. Hollande did very well in them last time. It could be that's where turnout is down. If so, it may not harm Macron too much.
At least most of the banlieues are outside the Paris department now, There was a reorganisation in 2015, so some were inside "Seine" in 2012, but the turnout figures for both 2012 and 2017 say "Paris".
I was mistaken here. "Seine" was abolished as a department in 1968, and split into four. So we're OK, and assuming Parisians don't tend to vote at the last minute, turnout in Paris, excluding most of the banlieues, is significantly down. Looks like Macron has been walloped.
Good turnout overall though compared to us - how have their avoided apathy?
When do we get the big reveal of all of the manifestos'? I suspect the Tories will be light on too many commitments.
The labour manifesto might has well have every wet dream of a policy that Corbyn et al have ever had for the good it will do them.
Nice username.
No announced dates on when they will all be out, doubt it will be for a few weeks at least, just drips of policies.
I take it all back, May is fantastic
The Prime Minister will consider scrapping the Government’s flagship High Speed rail scheme HS2 after being lobbied by hostile MPs to ditch the £56billion project in the Conservative Party manifesto.
If May scraps Osbornes pet project TSE may explode. Though scrapping it is the right thing to do.
It can't be scrapped in reality. If it's scrapped on paper, it will just get started again in 20 years time when the need for it is undeniable - just like Crossrail and Thameslink 2000.
Why delay? Build it now so it's ready when it's needed.
When do we get the big reveal of all of the manifestos'? I suspect the Tories will be light on too many commitments.
The labour manifesto might has well have every wet dream of a policy that Corbyn et al have ever had for the good it will do them.
Nice username.
No announced dates on when they will all be out, doubt it will be for a few weeks at least, just drips of policies.
I take it all back, May is fantastic
The Prime Minister will consider scrapping the Government’s flagship High Speed rail scheme HS2 after being lobbied by hostile MPs to ditch the £56billion project in the Conservative Party manifesto.
Corbyn quote "We’re here today to say that we don’t agree with these drones. We don’t agree with this obscenity that’s going on before our very eyes here. That’s why just as much as we want to get rid of land mines, small arms, nuclear weapons, we want to get rid of drones as well."
Small arms??? wtf does he want to leave us with?????
As I keep saying I can't see the campaign improving Labour's position, and day by day Corbyn and co. provide more evidence to back up my assertion. Maybe something like Canada in 1993 is what we ought to be pondering?
Sadly not. Labour is not facing wipeout, or anything remotely close.
There just isn't the strength of opposition in the bulk of the deep heartland: inner city (and Welsh valleys) seats with relatively high multiple indices of deprivation, or low turnout/low electorate size, or large BAME votes, or (more often than not) all three. And requiring staggering swings, with no strong opposition party available to achieve them.
Even Baxter's latest prediction, which I posted earlier - Tory majority 170 - still leaves Labour with 161 seats, which is broadly comparable to the Tories in 1997.
161 seat projection now, and the campaign has barely even started. I am betting on Labour < 150 seats.
But it becomes an extinction level event when Corbyn refuses to step down after defeat, or agrees to stand down only if he has some kind of say in his successor. Then you get SDP2 and both Rump Labour and SDP2 are destroyed by FPTP next time round.
To people who would say, of course Corbyn will stand down in June... what evidence have you seen that would suggest that so far?
He will not go on for another five years.Thetefore it would suggest a new younger leader for the party conference in September to start the long way back.I think they would go for Emily Thornberry.
Low turnout in Paris. Looks bad for Macron. 64.51% at 5pm. Average 69.42%. Bouches-du-Rhônes 70.70%, Nord 70.71%, Pas-de-Calais 69.75%, Alpes-de-Haute-Provence 71.83%. (This is assuming Parisians don't have a known tendency to flock to the polling booths in the early evening.)
In 2012, turnout when polls closed was 79.48% and in Paris it was 80.15%. (This is using the French method that for the headline turnout figures counts blank and spoilt ballots as votes . Paris was still higher than average in 2012 if only valid votes are counted.)
Macron has underperformed.
Do the bain lieues count as Paris. Hollande did very well in them last time. It could be that's where turnout is down. If so, it may not harm Macron too much.
At least most of the banlieues are outside the Paris department now, There was a reorganisation in 2015, so some were inside "Seine" in 2012, but the turnout figures for both 2012 and 2017 say "Paris".
I was mistaken here. "Seine" was abolished as a department in 1968, and split into four. So we're OK, and assuming Parisians don't tend to vote at the last minute, turnout in Paris, excluding most of the banlieues, is significantly down. Looks like Macron has been walloped.
Paris is up, it was 59.07% at 5pm in 2012.
Remember the cities also have an extra hour of voting this year.
Departments that are more than 10% down on 2012 are;
If so, I wonder who the next great centrist hope will be. Basically just Trudeau at the moment.
Should that prove to be anything close to being the case, then Fillon represents EXCEPTIONAL VALUE to be the next French President, on offer from BetFred at 9.0 (8/1 in old money).
Low turnout in Paris. Looks bad for Macron. 64.51% at 5pm. Average 69.42%. Bouches-du-Rhônes 70.70%, Nord 70.71%, Pas-de-Calais 69.75%, Alpes-de-Haute-Provence 71.83%. (This is assuming Parisians don't have a known tendency to flock to the polling booths in the early evening.)
In 2012, turnout when polls closed was 79.48% and in Paris it was 80.15%. (This is using the French method that for the headline turnout figures counts blank and spoilt ballots as votes . Paris was still higher than average in 2012 if only valid votes are counted.)
Macron has underperformed.
Do the bain lieues count as Paris. Hollande did very well in them last time. It could be that's where turnout is down. If so, it may not harm Macron too much.
At least most of the banlieues are outside the Paris department now, There was a reorganisation in 2015, so some were inside "Seine" in 2012, but the turnout figures for both 2012 and 2017 say "Paris".
I was mistaken here. "Seine" was abolished as a department in 1968, and split into four. So we're OK, and assuming Parisians don't tend to vote at the last minute, turnout in Paris, excluding most of the banlieues, is significantly down. Looks like Macron has been walloped.
Paris is up, it was 59.07% at 5pm in 2012.
Remember the cities also have an extra hour of voting this year.
Departments that are more than 10% down on 2012 are;
I'm on the Lib Dems in Hornsey & Wood Green at 3/1 and I'm very happy with that. I shall explain my logic, which has relevance for other seats, in a thread header when I get the time.
That would be interesting to hear. You are sceptical (as I am) of a major LD revival in this election, IIRC. However, I wouldn't necessarily have chosen Hornsey as one of the prime Lib Dem targets...
Is that not Lynne Featherstones old seat?
Correct. Currently held by a Catherine West for Labour, with a majority of eleven thousand.
I'm not familiar with this MP. A quick readaround suggests she is (a) one of the Morons and (b) a Continuity Remainer. The second characteristic, at least, should help in her defence of the seat.
Very left-wing, Australian background, former leader of Islington Council
Is there a significant Jewish population in the area? There doesn't appear to much Tory or UKIP vote to squeeze so straight Lab>Lib fight.
If Macron is well ahead, and the other three competing for second as they indicate (rather than, as I read at first, they were neck and neck behind him), then he is the next President.
Shame - I was kind of hoping for another polling failure.
When do we get the big reveal of all of the manifestos'? I suspect the Tories will be light on too many commitments.
The labour manifesto might has well have every wet dream of a policy that Corbyn et al have ever had for the good it will do them.
Nice username.
No announced dates on when they will all be out, doubt it will be for a few weeks at least, just drips of policies.
I take it all back, May is fantastic
The Prime Minister will consider scrapping the Government’s flagship High Speed rail scheme HS2 after being lobbied by hostile MPs to ditch the £56billion project in the Conservative Party manifesto.
TM will "consider" any and every policy that will get voters to the polling stations to vote blue. Anything to get activists out on the streets and writing their cheques.
Read the manifesto. Read it carefully. And read what's not in it.
Re manifestos: the Labour party can offer anything they like as the sensible ones know they will never be asked to impliment any of it so they can let the less realistic/more idealistic let rip. Lib Dems probably the same, but after being burned over tuition fees I would expect them to be more careful. The SNP are in a different situation as they will want to be able to call a second referendum of the back of their vote this time, but that might backfire if their vote drops significantly. May will probably want two slightly condtradictory things from hers: fewer hostges to fortune like the promise on tax and NI (or the referendum!) while at the same time making policies that are House of Lords proof.
A very eye-catching ultra bright red and yellow banner adorning this afternoon's thread. In the interests of balance, I wonder how long it will be before we're treated to the Tories' green fuzzy tree, or is it a union flag tree nowadays?
In terms of visual impact Yellow & Red or Yellow & Black are your strongest options - but can be difficult to look at for any length of time.
If I were in charge on marketing the Labour Party, I would ditch the red and yellow colour scheme in favour of, I don't know, red and white? The red and yellow is just awful. It looks like 1979. But I'm no marketing expert - what does Roger think, if he's around?
More controversially, in purely marketing terms, I'd also ditch the word 'Labour'. Politics aside, it's connotations aren't exactly positive.
If Macron is well ahead, and the other three competing for second as they indicate (rather than, as I read at first, they were neck and neck behind him), then he is the next President.
Shame - I was kind of hoping for another polling failure.
Yes they are saying he has a slight lead and the other three neck and neck for 2nd:
A 17h45, plusieurs enquêtes confirment qu'Emmanuel Macron est en tête (24%) devant Le Pen, Fillon et Mélenchon (entre 18% et 20%)
As long as they don't scrap the Help to Buy ISA i'm happy!
If you have a help to Buy ISA then that's nice, and I understand your enthusiasm for something you benefit from.
However, the Help to Buy ISA is IMO a horrible policy, making the tax system more complex and beneficial to people who have both the money and intelligence to maximise there benefits at the expense of the rest.
While similtanisly, creating a small but real rise in House prises above where they would otherwise be.
Corbyn quote "We’re here today to say that we don’t agree with these drones. We don’t agree with this obscenity that’s going on before our very eyes here. That’s why just as much as we want to get rid of land mines, small arms, nuclear weapons, we want to get rid of drones as well."
Small arms??? wtf does he want to leave us with?????
As I keep saying I can't see the campaign improving Labour's position, and day by day Corbyn and co. provide more evidence to back up my assertion. Maybe something like Canada in 1993 is what we ought to be pondering?
Sadly not. Labour is not facing wipeout, or anything remotely close.
There just isn't the strength of opposition in the bulk of the deep heartland: inner city (and Welsh valleys) seats with relatively high multiple indices of deprivation, or low turnout/low electorate size, or large BAME votes, or (more often than not) all three. And requiring staggering swings, with no strong opposition party available to achieve them.
Even Baxter's latest prediction, which I posted earlier - Tory majority 170 - still leaves Labour with 161 seats, which is broadly comparable to the Tories in 1997.
161 seat projection now, and the campaign has barely even started. I am betting on Labour < 150 seats.
But it becomes an extinction level event when Corbyn refuses to step down after defeat, or agrees to stand down only if he has some kind of say in his successor. Then you get SDP2 and both Rump Labour and SDP2 are destroyed by FPTP next time round.
To people who would say, of course Corbyn will stand down in June... what evidence have you seen that would suggest that so far?
He will not go on for another five years.Thetefore it would suggest a new younger leader for the party conference in September to start the long way back.I think they would go for Emily Thornberry.
They wouldn't ... would they??????
No one drips metropolitan elite more with her every fibre of their being, than Lady Nugee.
If Macron is well ahead, and the other three competing for second as they indicate (rather than, as I read at first, they were neck and neck behind him), then he is the next President.
Shame - I was kind of hoping for another polling failure.
Yes they are saying he has a slight lead and the other three neck and neck for 2nd:
A 17h45, plusieurs enquêtes confirment qu'Emmanuel Macron est en tête (24%) devant Le Pen, Fillon et Mélenchon (entre 18% et 20%)
24% to 18-20% is more than a slight lead. If that's true then we can almost say President Macron...
A very eye-catching ultra bright red and yellow banner adorning this afternoon's thread. In the interests of balance, I wonder how long it will be before we're treated to the Tories' green fuzzy tree, or is it a union flag tree nowadays?
In terms of visual impact Yellow & Red or Yellow & Black are your strongest options - but can be difficult to look at for any length of time.
If I were in charge on marketing the Labour Party, I would ditch the red and yellow colour scheme in favour of, I don't know, red and white? The red and yellow is just awful. It looks like 1979. But I'm no marketing expert - what does Roger think, if he's around?
More controversially, in purely marketing terms, I'd also ditch the word 'Labour'. Politics aside, it's connotations aren't exactly positive.
If so, I wonder who the next great centrist hope will be. Basically just Trudeau at the moment.
Should that prove to be anything close to being the case, then Fillon represents EXCEPTIONAL VALUE to be the next French President, on offer from BetFred at 9.0 (8/1 in old money).
DYOR.
I'm not betting on the french election.
I'm convinced I have no edge at all against the market makers.
A very eye-catching ultra bright red and yellow banner adorning this afternoon's thread. In the interests of balance, I wonder how long it will be before we're treated to the Tories' green fuzzy tree, or is it a union flag tree nowadays?
In terms of visual impact Yellow & Red or Yellow & Black are your strongest options - but can be difficult to look at for any length of time.
If I were in charge on marketing the Labour Party, I would ditch the red and yellow colour scheme in favour of, I don't know, red and white? The red and yellow is just awful. It looks like 1979. But I'm no marketing expert - what does Roger think, if he's around?
More controversially, in purely marketing terms, I'd also ditch the word 'Labour'. Politics aside, it's connotations aren't exactly positive.
When do we get the big reveal of all of the manifestos'? I suspect the Tories will be light on too many commitments.
The labour manifesto might has well have every wet dream of a policy that Corbyn et al have ever had for the good it will do them.
Nice username.
No announced dates on when they will all be out, doubt it will be for a few weeks at least, just drips of policies.
I take it all back, May is fantastic
The Prime Minister will consider scrapping the Government’s flagship High Speed rail scheme HS2 after being lobbied by hostile MPs to ditch the £56billion project in the Conservative Party manifesto.
If May scraps Osbornes pet project TSE may explode. Though scrapping it is the right thing to do.
It can't be scrapped in reality. If it's scrapped on paper, it will just get started again in 20 years time when the need for it is undeniable - just like Crossrail and Thameslink 2000.
Why delay? Build it now so it's ready when it's needed.
Should be sold as what it is, capacity building, not knocking twenty minutes off the journey up north for loaded londoners.
Corbyn quote "We’re here today to say that we don’t agree with these drones. We don’t agree with this obscenity that’s going on before our very eyes here. That’s why just as much as we want to get rid of land mines, small arms, nuclear weapons, we want to get rid of drones as well."
Small arms??? wtf does he want to leave us with?????
As I keep saying I can't see the campaign improving Labour's position, and day by day Corbyn and co. provide more evidence to back up my assertion. Maybe something like Canada in 1993 is what we ought to be pondering?
Sadly not. Labour is not facing wipeout, or anything remotely close.
There just isn't the strength of opposition in the bulk of the deep heartland: inner city (and Welsh valleys) seats with relatively high multiple indices of deprivation, or low turnout/low electorate size, or large BAME votes, or (more often than not) all three. And requiring staggering swings, with no strong opposition party available to achieve them.
Even Baxter's latest prediction, which I posted earlier - Tory majority 170 - still leaves Labour with 161 seats, which is broadly comparable to the Tories in 1997.
161 seat projection now, and the campaign has barely even started. I am betting on Labour < 150 seats.
But it becomes an extinction level event when Corbyn refuses to step down after defeat, or agrees to stand down only if he has some kind of say in his successor. Then you get SDP2 and both Rump Labour and SDP2 are destroyed by FPTP next time round.
To people who would say, of course Corbyn will stand down in June... what evidence have you seen that would suggest that so far?
He will not go on for another five years.Thetefore it would suggest a new younger leader for the party conference in September to start the long way back.I think they would go for Emily Thornberry.
They wouldn't ... would they??????
Yes between Yvette Cooper and Emily Thornberry they will.
When do we get the big reveal of all of the manifestos'? I suspect the Tories will be light on too many commitments.
The labour manifesto might has well have every wet dream of a policy that Corbyn et al have ever had for the good it will do them.
Nice username.
No announced dates on when they will all be out, doubt it will be for a few weeks at least, just drips of policies.
I take it all back, May is fantastic
The Prime Minister will consider scrapping the Government’s flagship High Speed rail scheme HS2 after being lobbied by hostile MPs to ditch the £56billion project in the Conservative Party manifesto.
If the French are so obsessed with restricting polling in the last days of the campaign, and generally disallowing things which could distort the election, why do they start counting the votes before polls close and therefore allow other countries media to publicise the results?
Joking apart, as a potential means of delivering all manner of unpleasant things, the use of drones needs to be seriously constrained and controlled. Quite how is easier said than done.
The destruction at will of small drones on the battlefield is something allied armed forces have high on their agenda. Of course 6th generation unmanned supersonic fighter aircraft could also be called drones - depends on how you define things - so don't expect the US or the UK to go for a ban anytime soon
If the French are so obsessed with restricting polling in the last days of the campaign, and allowing things which could distort the election, why do they start counting the votes before polls close and therefore allow other countries media to publicise the results?
If the French are so obsessed with restricting polling in the last days of the campaign, and generally disallowing things which could distort the election, why do they start counting the votes before polls close and therefore allow other countries media to publicise the results?
On HS2, I went to a meeting where a (very) senior Conservative MP assured the true blue voters gathered that HS2 was most definitely going ahead (And there was a fair amount of opposition) He also categorically ruled out a 2017 election
When do we get the big reveal of all of the manifestos'? I suspect the Tories will be light on too many commitments.
The labour manifesto might has well have every wet dream of a policy that Corbyn et al have ever had for the good it will do them.
Nice username.
No announced dates on when they will all be out, doubt it will be for a few weeks at least, just drips of policies.
I take it all back, May is fantastic
The Prime Minister will consider scrapping the Government’s flagship High Speed rail scheme HS2 after being lobbied by hostile MPs to ditch the £56billion project in the Conservative Party manifesto.
TM will "consider" any and every policy that will get voters to the polling stations to vote blue. Anything to get activists out on the streets and writing their cheques.
Read the manifesto. Read it carefully. And read what's not in it.
Best not forget the free Owls and doing what Constantine did not and make York the capitol of this fair isle.
If the French are so obsessed with restricting polling in the last days of the campaign, and allowing things which could distort the election, why do they start counting the votes before polls close and therefore allow other countries media to publicise the results?
It looks like an exit poll.
Somebody earlier claimed that French "exit polls" are actually sampled votes? Might not be what these are though.
When do we get the big reveal of all of the manifestos'? I suspect the Tories will be light on too many commitments.
The labour manifesto might has well have every wet dream of a policy that Corbyn et al have ever had for the good it will do them.
Nice username.
No announced dates on when they will all be out, doubt it will be for a few weeks at least, just drips of policies.
I take it all back, May is fantastic
The Prime Minister will consider scrapping the Government’s flagship High Speed rail scheme HS2 after being lobbied by hostile MPs to ditch the £56billion project in the Conservative Party manifesto.
If May scraps Osbornes pet project TSE may explode. Though scrapping it is the right thing to do.
It can't be scrapped in reality. If it's scrapped on paper, it will just get started again in 20 years time when the need for it is undeniable - just like Crossrail and Thameslink 2000.
Why delay? Build it now so it's ready when it's needed.
Should be sold as what it is, capacity building, not knocking twenty minutes off the journey up north for loaded londoners.
It's both. HS1 has been fantastic for journeys to Kent, and anyone who wants to delay HS2 should try London to Canterbury or Dover and back, once on the high speed and once on the Victorian line.
If the French are so obsessed with restricting polling in the last days of the campaign, and allowing things which could distort the election, why do they start counting the votes before polls close and therefore allow other countries media to publicise the results?
It looks like an exit poll.
Somebody earlier claimed that French "exit polls" are actually sampled votes? Might not be what these are though.
Indeed, the one released as polls close is based on actual votes.
On HS2, I went to a meeting where a (very) senior Conservative MP assured the true blue voters gathered that HS2 was most definitely going ahead (And there was a fair amount of opposition) He also categorically ruled out a 2017 election
On HS2, I went to a meeting where a (very) senior Conservative MP assured the true blue voters gathered that HS2 was most definitely going ahead (And there was a fair amount of opposition) He also categorically ruled out a 2017 election
Thinking about Theresa May's premiership so far, do you think Theresa May has followed a similar course to David Cameron and this is a good thing : 8 Theresa May has followed a similar course to David Cameron and this is a bad thing: 15 Theresa May has changed direction from David Cameron's government and this is a good thing : 35 Theresa May has changed direction from David Cameron's government and this is a bad thing: 13
Would she say she has changed direction or not though?
Remember - we pay attention - the voters don't - so what they will pick up is changes of tone & style - rather than detail (which in policy terms is very similar) - and in tone & style there has been a significant change (hence the lamentations of the posh boys) - the Middle Class are recapturing the country - and taking the workers with them....
Whatever she is saying and doing (or not saying and doing) is definitely being liked in the country at the moment, there's little doubt.
Who do you think is better at the job of Prime Minister? David Cameron: 24 Theresa May: 38
Cameron's fans are in Labour (37) and the Lib Dems (47) - Cons rate him at 14.
May's fans are Tories (69) and UKIP (63)
That is why there was a rumour of Dave campaigning in the south west i guess.
On HS2, I went to a meeting where a (very) senior Conservative MP assured the true blue voters gathered that HS2 was most definitely going ahead (And there was a fair amount of opposition) He also categorically ruled out a 2017 election
Comments
JLM steaming out, Fillon slipping too.
If Theresa May can be nailed down on any issue, there will inevitably be voters who disagree with her.
Edited extra bit: regarding the Islington North tweet.
A pedant panel will need to advise.
@Sean_F Thank you
The other point of view, of course, is that 12/1 is accurate and shows well why the LDs won't win 25+ seats.
I'm not familiar with this MP. A quick readaround suggests she is (a) one of the Morons and (b) a Continuity Remainer. The second characteristic, at least, should help in her defence of the seat.
David Cameron: 24
Theresa May: 38
Cameron's fans are in Labour (37) and the Lib Dems (47) - Cons rate him at 14.
May's fans are Tories (69) and UKIP (63)
If May scraps Osbornes pet project TSE may explode. Though scrapping it is the right thing to do.
His 'ultra' image may have something to do with his very much smarter
operatorminder, Milne, and his pitiless, Maoist crown prince, McDonnell. Buy Cuddly Corby, get those two evil bastards.The 1st round winner market can hardly split LP/Macron. The other two are out with the washing. If the billy bunters are even nearly right, Macron is next President of France.
https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/856149467531272194
Why delay? Build it now so it's ready when it's needed.
Remember the cities also have an extra hour of voting this year.
Departments that are more than 10% down on 2012 are;
Ariege
Gironde
Landes
Lot
Oise
So almost all in the southwest.
DYOR.
https://www.rtbf.be/info/monde/detail_presidentielle-francaise-la-participation-a-midi-direct?id=9587638
Shame - I was kind of hoping for another polling failure. One of the options available in the poll doesn't match the question the tweet poses. And what is Harry Potter politics? I'm so confused.
TM will "consider" any and every policy that will get voters to the polling stations to vote blue. Anything to get activists out on the streets and writing their cheques.
Read the manifesto. Read it carefully. And read what's not in it.
More controversially, in purely marketing terms, I'd also ditch the word 'Labour'. Politics aside, it's connotations aren't exactly positive.
A 17h45, plusieurs enquêtes confirment qu'Emmanuel Macron est en tête (24%) devant Le Pen, Fillon et Mélenchon (entre 18% et 20%)
"Several surveys confirm".
Around 2pm they cited an exit poll conducted "at one given time" as giving
Macron 24%
Le Pen 22%
Fillon 20,5%
Mélenchon 18%
However, the Help to Buy ISA is IMO a horrible policy, making the tax system more complex and beneficial to people who have both the money and intelligence to maximise there benefits at the expense of the rest.
While similtanisly, creating a small but real rise in House prises above where they would otherwise be.
I'm convinced I have no edge at all against the market makers.
Red and white, no gold!
Aube
Puy De Dome
Bas Rhin
Paris
Seine Martime
Hauts De Seine
Val D'Oise
Mixed bag.
He also categorically ruled out a 2017 election
Double top.