If the French are so obsessed with restricting polling in the last days of the campaign, and generally disallowing things which could distort the election, why do they start counting the votes before polls close and therefore allow other countries media to publicise the results?
I would not rely too much on early rumours until the votes are actually counted, first exit polls in the US had Hillary clearly ahead and Yougov's on the day poll had Remain ahead though I still think it probably will be a Macron v Le Pen runoff
If the French are so obsessed with restricting polling in the last days of the campaign, and generally disallowing things which could distort the election, why do they start counting the votes before polls close and therefore allow other countries media to publicise the results?
I would not rely too much on early rumours until the votes are actually counted, first exit polls in the US had Hillary clearly ahead and Yougov's on the day poll had Remain ahead though I still think it probably will be a Macron v Le Pen runoff
Hillary of course won the popular vote. France is a simple vote...
If the French are so obsessed with restricting polling in the last days of the campaign, and generally disallowing things which could distort the election, why do they start counting the votes before polls close and therefore allow other countries media to publicise the results?
I would not rely too much on early rumours until the votes are actually counted, first exit polls in the US had Hillary clearly ahead and Yougov's on the day poll had Remain ahead though I still think it probably will be a Macron v Le Pen runoff
Hillary of course won the popular vote. France is a simple vote...
Macron's strongest area is Brittany, how is turnout there ?
Today's 5pm figures: Morbihan 73.79% Côtes-d'Armor 76.31% Finistère 72.68% Ille et Vilaine 70.63% crude unweighted average: 73.35% average for France 69.42%
2012 close-of-polls figures: Brittany (four departments): 84.68% average for whole of France: 79.48%
So compared to the whole of France, Brittany 0.6% behind par at 5pm.
"A 17h45, plusieurs enquêtes confirment qu'Emmanuel Macron est en tête (24%) devant Le Pen, Fillon et Mélenchon (entre 18% et 20%)"
"Several surveys confirm".
Around 2pm they cited an exit poll conducted "at one given time" as giving
Macron 24% Le Pen 22% Fillon 20,5% Mélenchon 18%
Be wary of anything that's released while people are still voting.
While that's true, Mélenchon would have to do exceptionally well in the remaining period to overhaul Macron. And the only way that Le Pen wins, that I can fathom, is if she faces Mélenchon in the final two.
LOL, idiots. Don't pick fights online with professional writers, you quickly find they're much better than you at writing. See @SeanT for more details.
I don't follow JK on twitter, why is it she attracts so much hate from the tw@tteri ?
I know she was a robust defender of Free speech, even when it is 'unfashionable speech' but had assumed otherwise she was a generic lefty.
but if she is being attracting lots of hate on trwtter, that might suggest she is more of a Liberal (classical variety) and less of a Liberal (socialism in disscies variety)
Who of the other 3 will the strong showing for Melanchon have hurt the most? If Le Pen, it hardly matters as she wasn't going to win anyway, and she'll still likely get into the top 2. I'd have assumed Macron, but he's still doing fine if that is right.
On HS2, I went to a meeting where a (very) senior Conservative MP assured the true blue voters gathered that HS2 was most definitely going ahead (And there was a fair amount of opposition) He also categorically ruled out a 2017 election
Did he mention the 2018 boundary reviews getting dumped along with the 600 seat proposals?
LOL, idiots. Don't pick fights online with professional writers, you quickly find they're much better than you at writing. See @SeanT for more details.
It like heckling a comedian....Even if you are smart and witty, they have a megaphone to drown you out.
I don't follow JK on twitter, why is it she attracts so much hate from the tw@tteri ?
I know she was a robust defender of Free speech, even when it is 'unfashionable speech' but had assumed otherwise she was a generic lefty.
but if she is being attracting lots of hate on trwtter, that might suggest she is more of a Liberal (classical variety) and less of a Liberal (socialism in disscies variety)
Which is good to know!
She's a Labour supporter who believes that trying to win elections is a good thing.
If the French are so obsessed with restricting polling in the last days of the campaign, and generally disallowing things which could distort the election, why do they start counting the votes before polls close and therefore allow other countries media to publicise the results?
I would not rely too much on early rumours until the votes are actually counted, first exit polls in the US had Hillary clearly ahead and Yougov's on the day poll had Remain ahead though I still think it probably will be a Macron v Le Pen runoff
Hillary of course won the popular vote. France is a simple vote...
There was no such thing in the US as the "popular vote". Just the Electoral College.
If the French are so obsessed with restricting polling in the last days of the campaign, and allowing things which could distort the election, why do they start counting the votes before polls close and therefore allow other countries media to publicise the results?
It looks like an exit poll.
Somebody earlier claimed that French "exit polls" are actually sampled votes? Might not be what these are though.
The official ones are samples that get released at 8pm. But I think other organisations do carry out their own true exit polls throughout the day, so yes a bit confusing deciphering which methodology these ongoing polls are using.
I'm on the Lib Dems in Hornsey & Wood Green at 3/1 and I'm very happy with that. I shall explain my logic, which has relevance for other seats, in a thread header when I get the time.
That would be interesting to hear. You are sceptical (as I am) of a major LD revival in this election, IIRC. However, I wouldn't necessarily have chosen Hornsey as one of the prime Lib Dem targets...
Well, where would you choose ?
Good question!
Right, let's start our way down the list of targets.
Cambridge (1) is a gimme. If the Lib Dems can't bag that, they're toast.
Eastbourne (2) and Lewes (3) are also both very, very tight marginals. Only Lewes out of the pair is Remain-leaning, but the Lib Dems control Eastbourne Borough Council and have made progress in local elections there in recent years. They're clearly both worth a crack.
There are three marginal seats in the vicinity of Bristol: Thornbury & Yate (4), Bath (12) and Cheltenham (19.) Bath and Cheltenham are both Remain-leaning. Thornbury & Yate was near 50:50 in the referendum, but it's a very tight contest on paper, and worth a go.
Twickenham (5) looks a likely gain as it is tight, and Vince Cable is standing again for the Yellows. Also in West London they'll be looking at Kingston & Surbiton (7) and Sutton & Cheam (11.) Kingston is a good target because it's 60:40 Remain, but Sutton has a higher Tory majority, no referendum advantage, and as many Kippers as Labourites for the two sides to gather votes from. The Lib Dems do not have infinite resources and may prioritise the two more marginal seats (and saving Tom Brake in Carshalton) and put less effort into Sutton.
In Scotland, East Dunbartonshire (6) looks on paper like the best target, but the Lib Dems are weak on the local council and performed very poorly in the Holyrood elections in the relevant seats. Far more promising for them are Edinburgh West (9) and Fife NE (16,) where they won the constituency votes for the Scottish Parliament last year and where I understand they have a pretty good chance of turfing the SNP out.
St.Ives (8) is doubtless one they'll have a crack at, as it's their best chance in the West Country (to the West of Bath, anyway!) They're doing well on the council, but Cornwall is a Leave area and there are Ukip voters available for the defending Tories to exploit. I don't particularly rate their chances. Ditto Torbay (10) which split almost 2:1 for Leave.
I don't follow JK on twitter, why is it she attracts so much hate from the tw@tteri ?
I know she was a robust defender of Free speech, even when it is 'unfashionable speech' but had assumed otherwise she was a generic lefty.
but if she is being attracting lots of hate on trwtter, that might suggest she is more of a Liberal (classical variety) and less of a Liberal (socialism in disscies variety)
Which is good to know!
She's a Labour supporter who believes that trying to win elections is a good thing.
What a crazy idea, what we need instead is another 4 bank holidays ....
If the French are so obsessed with restricting polling in the last days of the campaign, and allowing things which could distort the election, why do they start counting the votes before polls close and therefore allow other countries media to publicise the results?
It looks like an exit poll.
Somebody earlier claimed that French "exit polls" are actually sampled votes? Might not be what these are though.
Those figures are cited by RTBF as being from an exit poll ("un sondage sortie des urnes"). They give a warning to be wary, saying the poll was only conducted at one particular time, and that voting is still going on. I'd take those figures with a large mountain of salt.
Burnley (13) also broke about 2:1 for Leave, but the Lib Dems are the main opposition to Labour rather than the Tories there, so that one is very hard to read. They'll certainly give it a good go, but Ukip + Con = 31% of the 2015 vote. I think the outcome there depends firstly on how badly Ukip folds, and secondly on whether or not local Tories vote tactically against Labour, or Labour Leavers vote tactically for the Tories to defeat the Lib Dems.
Bermondsey & Old Southwark (14) is a likely gain. Simon Hughes is standing again, he has a makeable majority off 4,500 to overturn, Southwark is ultra-Remain, and the sitting Labour MP, Neil Coyle, is one of the Morons.
Yeovil (15) is in Leave territory with a large bank of Ukip voters and a Lib Dem candidate who has just unexpectedly quit, so I think we can write that off.
Beyond Fife NE (16,) which I've already mentioned, swings of 5% or greater are needed and life starts to get a bit more challenging. Current Scottish data suggests Caithness (17) is beyond them. Colchester (18) has a 5,500 Tory majority and is also Leave. Cheltenham (19) is, however, probably worth a pop for reasons previously mentioned, and by the same logic some people think they might bag Cheadle (20.) After that, I think the only other reasonably decent chance is Cardiff Central (25,) a two-horse race with Labour that could swing their way if the only other large bloc of voters - the Tories, who can't realistically win the seat - deploy anti-Labour tactical voting. My choice for a long-shot punt would be Oxford West & Abingdon (36,) where the Conservatives have a 9,500 majority but the electorate is substantially pro-Remain, and the third place party is Labour not Ukip. The sitting Tory MP is a Remainer, but has been involved in some controversies.
Who of the other 3 will the strong showing for Melanchon have hurt the most? If Le Pen, it hardly matters as she wasn't going to win anyway, and she'll still likely get into the top 2. I'd have assumed Macron, but he's still doing fine if that is right.
If Melenchon comes 4th that is not that strong a showing
If the French are so obsessed with restricting polling in the last days of the campaign, and generally disallowing things which could distort the election, why do they start counting the votes before polls close and therefore allow other countries media to publicise the results?
I would not rely too much on early rumours until the votes are actually counted, first exit polls in the US had Hillary clearly ahead and Yougov's on the day poll had Remain ahead though I still think it probably will be a Macron v Le Pen runoff
Hillary of course won the popular vote. France is a simple vote...
There was no such thing in the US as the "popular vote". Just the Electoral College.
Perhaps it would be more accurate to say "the total of the popular votes"
Who of the other 3 will the strong showing for Melanchon have hurt the most? If Le Pen, it hardly matters as she wasn't going to win anyway, and she'll still likely get into the top 2. I'd have assumed Macron, but he's still doing fine if that is right.
If Melenchon comes 4th that is not that strong a showing
in 7 weeks time Corbyn may look wistfully upon Melenchon's 18% of the vote
LOL, idiots. Don't pick fights online with professional writers, you quickly find they're much better than you at writing. See @SeanT for more details.
It like heckling a comedian....Even if you are smart and witty, they have a megaphone to drown you out.
Indeed. Frankie Boyle to heckler: "I'm getting paid to be here making a complete c*** of myself. What's your excuse?"
No, getting rid of Corbyn is the answer to Labour's problems. Well not all of them, but it's a start.
It's barely a start - the public have taken to May, not with huge enthusiasm, but I think they see her as safe and steady in a difficult period. Her appeal is of course enhanced by Corbyn but it is deeper than just dislike of him. Her votes will come predominantly from the 'duller' parts of the electorate in the parts of Britain about which the metropolitico journalists know little, dislike and would prefer to ignore. There are a few posters on here with similar views - they detest what JC has done to 'their' party but end up taking greater comfort in sneering at May and worse because in the end their tribalism is more important than the country but they don't like to admit it. I voted Remain and can say with total convictionthe the best prospect for a half-decent Brexit will come from a May led government with a 50+ majority.
I also have zero sympathy for the Labour MPS who have effectively allowed this shambles in the party to moulder on for the past few years and yet have the gall now to beg for sympathy votes on the basis of a vague promise not to back JC for PM. Anyone who believes such trite nonsense deserves him as PM next June.
I think Labour would be well advised to push the message thay May 'has a compulsive aversion to not telling the truth'.
"A 17h45, plusieurs enquêtes confirment qu'Emmanuel Macron est en tête (24%) devant Le Pen, Fillon et Mélenchon (entre 18% et 20%)"
"Several surveys confirm".
Around 2pm they cited an exit poll conducted "at one given time" as giving
Macron 24% Le Pen 22% Fillon 20,5% Mélenchon 18%
Be wary of anything that's released while people are still voting.
While that's true, Mélenchon would have to do exceptionally well in the remaining period to overhaul Macron. And the only way that Le Pen wins, that I can fathom, is if she faces Mélenchon in the final two.
I'm just dubious about the provenance of anything that's released before polls close. I've no idea if it's serious or someone just giving figures at random.
When do we get the big reveal of all of the manifestos'? I suspect the Tories will be light on too many commitments.
The labour manifesto might has well have every wet dream of a policy that Corbyn et al have ever had for the good it will do them.
Nice username.
No announced dates on when they will all be out, doubt it will be for a few weeks at least, just drips of policies.
I take it all back, May is fantastic
The Prime Minister will consider scrapping the Government’s flagship High Speed rail scheme HS2 after being lobbied by hostile MPs to ditch the £56billion project in the Conservative Party manifesto.
If May scraps Osbornes pet project TSE may explode. Though scrapping it is the right thing to do.
It can't be scrapped in reality. If it's scrapped on paper, it will just get started again in 20 years time when the need for it is undeniable - just like Crossrail and Thameslink 2000.
Why delay? Build it now so it's ready when it's needed.
Should be sold as what it is, capacity building, not knocking twenty minutes off the journey up north for loaded londoners.
It's both. HS1 has been fantastic for journeys to Kent, and anyone who wants to delay HS2 should try London to Canterbury or Dover and back, once on the high speed and once on the Victorian line.
We took the bullet down to Canterbury a few years ago, then coached it back. The latter was awful, the former was amazing.
If the French are so obsessed with restricting polling in the last days of the campaign, and generally disallowing things which could distort the election, why do they start counting the votes before polls close and therefore allow other countries media to publicise the results?
I would not rely too much on early rumours until the votes are actually counted, first exit polls in the US had Hillary clearly ahead and Yougov's on the day poll had Remain ahead though I still think it probably will be a Macron v Le Pen runoff
Hillary of course won the popular vote. France is a simple vote...
There was no such thing in the US as the "popular vote". Just the Electoral College.
Perhaps it would be more accurate to say "the total of the popular votes"
It's nice to see some pedantry for a change, as it's quite rare on here!
Burnley (13) also broke about 2:1 for Leave, but the Lib Dems are the main opposition to Labour rather than the Tories there, so that one is very hard to read. They'll certainly give it a good go, but Ukip + Con = 31% of the 2015 vote. I think the outcome there depends firstly on how badly Ukip folds, and secondly on whether or not local Tories vote tactically against Labour, or Labour Leavers vote tactically for the Tories to defeat the Lib Dems.
Bermondsey & Old Southwark (14) is a likely gain. Simon Hughes is standing again, he has a makeable majority off 4,500 to overturn, Southwark is ultra-Remain, and the sitting Labour MP, Neil Coyle, is one of the Morons.
Yeovil (15) is in Leave territory with a large bank of Ukip voters and a Lib Dem candidate who has just unexpectedly quit, so I think we can write that off.
Beyond Fife NE (16,) which I've already mentioned, swings of 5% or greater are needed and life starts to get a bit more challenging. Current Scottish data suggests Caithness (17) is beyond them. Colchester (18) has a 5,500 Tory majority and is also Leave. Cheltenham (19) is, however, probably worth a pop for reasons previously mentioned, and by the same logic some people think they might bag Cheadle (20.) After that, I think the only other reasonably decent chance is Cardiff Central (25,) a two-horse race with Labour that could swing their way if the only other large bloc of voters - the Tories, who can't realistically win the seat - deploy anti-Labour tactical voting. My choice for a long-shot punt would be Oxford West & Abingdon (36,) where the Conservatives have a 9,500 majority but the electorate is substantially pro-Remain, and the third place party is Labour not Ukip. The sitting Tory MP is a Remainer, but has been involved in some controversies.
Anecdote alert - I know a couple of labour voters in Burnley and both are voting Libdem, due to Corbyn and Brexit. They both think the Libdems will have a good go at winning there.
I did read somewhere that the MP in Oxford West my have some difficulty getting selected by his local association.
An excellent post on the LibDem chances, and one I very much agree with. I think they'll end up on 14-16 seats, unless there is a total Labour meltdown. (Which is - of course - completely possible.)
Burnley (13) also broke about 2:1 for Leave, but the Lib Dems are the main opposition to Labour rather than the Tories there, so that one is very hard to read. They'll certainly give it a good go, but Ukip + Con = 31% of the 2015 vote. I think the outcome there depends firstly on how badly Ukip folds, and secondly on whether or not local Tories vote tactically against Labour, or Labour Leavers vote tactically for the Tories to defeat the Lib Dems.
Bermondsey & Old Southwark (14) is a likely gain. Simon Hughes is standing again, he has a makeable majority off 4,500 to overturn, Southwark is ultra-Remain, and the sitting Labour MP, Neil Coyle, is one of the Morons.
Yeovil (15) is in Leave territory with a large bank of Ukip voters and a Lib Dem candidate who has just unexpectedly quit, so I think we can write that off.
Beyond Fife NE (16,) which I've already mentioned, swings of 5% or greater are needed and life starts to get a bit more challenging. Current Scottish data suggests Caithness (17) is beyond them. Colchester (18) has a 5,500 Tory majority and is also Leave. Cheltenham (19) is, however, probably worth a pop for reasons previously mentioned, and by the same logic some people think they might bag Cheadle (20.) After that, I think the only other reasonably decent chance is Cardiff Central (25,) a two-horse race with Labour that could swing their way if the only other large bloc of voters - the Tories, who can't realistically win the seat - deploy anti-Labour tactical voting. My choice for a long-shot punt would be Oxford West & Abingdon (36,) where the Conservatives have a 9,500 majority but the electorate is substantially pro-Remain, and the third place party is Labour not Ukip. The sitting Tory MP is a Remainer, but has been involved in some controversies.
A great summary of the LD target list. What do you think of Richmond Park?
Are there any seats where the Conservatives could come from 3rd (overtaking LibDems) to beat a Labour incumbent on the back of a Brexit tactical election?
No, getting rid of Corbyn is the answer to Labour's problems. Well not all of them, but it's a start.
It's barely a start - the public have taken to May, not with huge enthusiasm, but I think they see her as safe and steady in a difficult period. Her appeal is of course enhanced by Corbyn but it is deeper than just dislike of him. Her votes will come predominantly from the 'duller' parts of the electorate in the parts of Britain about which the metropolitico journalists know little, dislike and would prefer to ignore. There are a few posters on here with similar views - they detest what JC has done to 'their' party but end up taking greater comfort in sneering at May and worse because in the end their tribalism is more important than the country but they don't like to admit it. I voted Remain and can say with total convictionthe the best prospect for a half-decent Brexit will come from a May led government with a 50+ majority.
I also have zero sympathy for the Labour MPS who have effectively allowed this shambles in the party to moulder on for the past few years and yet have the gall now to beg for sympathy votes on the basis of a vague promise not to back JC for PM. Anyone who believes such trite nonsense deserves him as PM next June.
I think Labour would be well advised to push the message thay May 'has a compulsive aversion to not telling the truth'.
Sorry you don't get to push any such message. People have made up their minds about Corbyn and it's not pretty. The rest is irrelevant.
Barring a black sheepswan dragon event, the only question is the size of the majority.
On topic, regardless of the shitness of corbyn, uncle Lynton will tell you these polls on specific policy questions aren't useful. It is about broader overview than finding that your 4 extra bank holiday policy has favourable ratings.
Burnley (13) also broke about 2:1 for Leave, but the Lib Dems are the main opposition to Labour rather than the Tories there, so that one is very hard to read. They'll certainly give it a good go, but Ukip + Con = 31% of the 2015 vote. I think the outcome there depends firstly on how badly Ukip folds, and secondly on whether or not local Tories vote tactically against Labour, or Labour Leavers vote tactically for the Tories to defeat the Lib Dems.
Bermondsey & Old Southwark (14) is a likely gain. Simon Hughes is standing again, he has a makeable majority off 4,500 to overturn, Southwark is ultra-Remain, and the sitting Labour MP, Neil Coyle, is one of the Morons.
Yeovil (15) is in Leave territory with a large bank of Ukip voters and a Lib Dem candidate who has just unexpectedly quit, so I think we can write that off.
Beyond Fife NE (16,) which I've already mentioned, swings of 5% or greater are needed and life starts to get a bit more challenging. Current Scottish data suggests Caithness (17) is beyond them. Colchester (18) has a 5,500 Tory majority and is also Leave. Cheltenham (19) is, however, probably worth a pop for reasons previously mentioned, and by the same logic some people think they might bag Cheadle (20.) After that, I think the only other reasonably decent chance is Cardiff Central (25,) a two-horse race with Labour that could swing their way if the only other large bloc of voters - the Tories, who can't realistically win the seat - deploy anti-Labour tactical voting. My choice for a long-shot punt would be Oxford West & Abingdon (36,) where the Conservatives have a 9,500 majority but the electorate is substantially pro-Remain, and the third place party is Labour not Ukip. The sitting Tory MP is a Remainer, but has been involved in some controversies.
Anecdote alert - I know a couple of labour voters in Burnley and both are voting Libdem, due to Corbyn and Brexit. They both think the Libdems will have a good go at winning there.
I did read somewhere that the MP in Oxford West my have some difficulty getting selected by his local association.
"A 17h45, plusieurs enquêtes confirment qu'Emmanuel Macron est en tête (24%) devant Le Pen, Fillon et Mélenchon (entre 18% et 20%)"
"Several surveys confirm".
Around 2pm they cited an exit poll conducted "at one given time" as giving
Macron 24% Le Pen 22% Fillon 20,5% Mélenchon 18%
Be wary of anything that's released while people are still voting.
While that's true, Mélenchon would have to do exceptionally well in the remaining period to overhaul Macron. And the only way that Le Pen wins, that I can fathom, is if she faces Mélenchon in the final two.
I'm just dubious about the provenance of anything that's released before polls close. I've no idea if it's serious or someone just giving figures at random.
That's fair.
I would also point out that the exit polls in the Spanish GE were wildly off, understating the PP by 3 or 4%. So we should wait until we see real results later this evening.
An excellent post on the LibDem chances, and one I very much agree with. I think they'll end up on 14-16 seats, unless there is a total Labour meltdown. (Which is - of course - completely possible.)
Thank you sir - although I dare say you remember from previous occasions that we're singing more or less from the same hymn sheet on this topic.
My summary would be about 10-11 gains if everything goes right for them, and possibly 2 or 3 losses. This would work out at about 17 seats at the upper end of expectations. A better performance will require a substantial uptick in national vote share (of which there is, as yet, no sign,) or quite a lot of luck.
Why is May doing so well? It's not because she is a politician for the ages, she clearly is not. It's not down her public speeches. It's not even down to her being strong on policy, because she is average at best.
It's because she looks and acts like a hard worker in a field of one note politicians and shirkers. That's it. Labour are led by a man that lost his mind when the Berlin wall fell, Farron can only gainsay, Sturgeon can only think of independence and the rest are no marks. Even her internal competition is a mess currently. The public have taken to her, not in a warm way but in a "you will do what we ask of you" way.
Are there any seats where the Conservatives could come from 3rd (overtaking LibDems) to beat a Labour incumbent on the back of a Brexit tactical election?
Somewhere like the recently mentioned Burnley - if most of the UKIP 2015 vote goes blue, and a fair number of reds stay home. Probably a 20/1 shot though. Not a lot of seats with LAB>LD>CON in that order.
Are there any seats where the Conservatives could come from 3rd (overtaking LibDems) to beat a Labour incumbent on the back of a Brexit tactical election?
There aren't very many seats where the LibDems are second! There are lots of seats where they could come from third behind UKIP to win.
In theory, the Conservatives could do well in places like Cambridge on the back of overtaking the LibDems. But I suspect they won't.
Burnley (13) also broke about 2:1 for Leave, but the Lib Dems are the main opposition to Labour rather than the Tories there, so that one is very hard to read. They'll certainly give it a good go, but Ukip + Con = 31% of the 2015 vote. I think the outcome there depends firstly on how badly Ukip folds, and secondly on whether or not local Tories vote tactically against Labour, or Labour Leavers vote tactically for the Tories to defeat the Lib Dems.
Bermondsey & Old Southwark (14) is a likely gain. Simon Hughes is standing again, he has a makeable majority off 4,500 to overturn, Southwark is ultra-Remain, and the sitting Labour MP, Neil Coyle, is one of the Morons.
Yeovil (15) is in Leave territory with a large bank of Ukip voters and a Lib Dem candidate who has just unexpectedly quit, so I think we can write that off.
Beyond Fife NE (16,) which I've already mentioned, swings of 5% or greater are needed and life starts to get a bit more challenging. Current Scottish data suggests Caithness (17) is beyond them. Colchester (18) has a 5,500 Tory majority and is also Leave. Cheltenham (19) is, however, probably worth a pop for reasons previously mentioned, and by the same logic some people think they might bag Cheadle (20.) After that, I think the only other reasonably decent chance is Cardiff Central (25,) a two-horse race with Labour that could swing their way if the only other large bloc of voters - the Tories, who can't realistically win the seat - deploy anti-Labour tactical voting. My choice for a long-shot punt would be Oxford West & Abingdon (36,) where the Conservatives have a 9,500 majority but the electorate is substantially pro-Remain, and the third place party is Labour not Ukip. The sitting Tory MP is a Remainer, but has been involved in some controversies.
A great summary of the LD target list. What do you think of Richmond Park?
Never write off the Liberal Democrats in defence, at least not without good reason.
Olney won that seat recently, in circumstances of Conservative scandal, and it's about 70:30 Remain. IMHO the Lib Dems could have more trouble holding on to North Norfolk, and especially Southport and Carshalton & Wallington, than this one.
If forced to make a prediction, I'd say she'll hold it.
Yes, excellent post by @Black_Rook (as is often the case).
What I'd really like to do is put together an ordered list of LibDem targets by probability, not by swing required since 2015. Obviously, this would be somewhat subjective, but it's better to be roughly right than precisely wrong, and we can easily see that raw swing required is not a good guide this time round for the LibDem targets at least.
Yes, excellent post by @Black_Rook (as is often the case).
What I'd really like to do is put together an ordered list of LibDem targets by probability, not by swing required since 2015. Obviously, this would be somewhat subjective, but it's better to be roughly right than precisely wrong, and we can easily see that raw swing required is not a good guide this time round for the LibDem targets at least.
It would be very useful for those of us "under 28.5" to know the 20/21 gains needed and bet accordingly. I agree with Black Rock for the most part. Bob Russell is standing in Colchester by the way. Significant personal vote, for all the good it did him before...!
Yes, excellent post by @Black_Rook (as is often the case).
What I'd really like to do is put together an ordered list of LibDem targets by probability, not by swing required since 2015. Obviously, this would be somewhat subjective, but it's better to be roughly right than precisely wrong, and we can easily see that raw swing required is not a good guide this time round for the LibDem targets at least.
Burnley (13) also broke about 2:1 for Leave, but the Lib Dems are the main opposition to Labour rather than the Tories there, so that one is very hard to read. They'll certainly give it a good go, but Ukip + Con = 31% of the 2015 vote. I think the outcome there depends firstly on how badly Ukip folds, and secondly on whether or not local Tories vote tactically against Labour, or Labour Leavers vote tactically for the Tories to defeat the Lib Dems.
Bermondsey & Old Southwark (14) is a likely gain. Simon Hughes is standing again, he has a makeable majority off 4,500 to overturn, Southwark is ultra-Remain, and the sitting Labour MP, Neil Coyle, is one of the Morons.
Yeovil (15) is in Leave territory with a large bank of Ukip voters and a Lib Dem candidate who has just unexpectedly quit, so I think we can write that off.
Beyond Fife NE (16,) which I've already mentioned, swings of 5% or greater are needed and life starts to get a bit more challenging. Current Scottish data suggests Caithness (17) is beyond them. Colchester (18) has a 5,500 Tory majority and is also Leave. Cheltenham (19) is, however, probably worth a pop for reasons previously mentioned, and by the same logic some people think they might bag Cheadle (20.) After that, I think the only other reasonably decent chance is Cardiff Central (25,) a two-horse race with Labour that could swing their way if the only other large bloc of voters - the Tories, who can't realistically win the seat - deploy anti-Labour tactical voting. My choice for a long-shot punt would be Oxford West & Abingdon (36,) where the Conservatives have a 9,500 majority but the electorate is substantially pro-Remain, and the third place party is Labour not Ukip. The sitting Tory MP is a Remainer, but has been involved in some controversies.
A great summary of the LD target list. What do you think of Richmond Park?
Never write off the Liberal Democrats in defence, at least not without good reason.
Olney won that seat recently, in circumstances of Conservative scandal, and it's about 70:30 Remain. IMHO the Lib Dems could have more trouble holding on to North Norfolk, and especially Southport and Carshalton & Wallington, than this one.
If forced to make a prediction, I'd say she'll hold it.
Who of the other 3 will the strong showing for Melanchon have hurt the most? If Le Pen, it hardly matters as she wasn't going to win anyway, and she'll still likely get into the top 2. I'd have assumed Macron, but he's still doing fine if that is right.
If Melenchon comes 4th that is not that strong a showing
Compared to where he was polling until about 3 weeks ago being with a few percent of 2nd is strong.
Mr. Rabbit, sadly, the Richmond Park constituency is now missing from Betfair Sportsbook, where I got on at 26. I'm sure the odds will be less kind when it reappears.
Commander Shepard, I thought you had a funny look on your face
Yes, excellent post by @Black_Rook (as is often the case).
What I'd really like to do is put together an ordered list of LibDem targets by probability, not by swing required since 2015. Obviously, this would be somewhat subjective, but it's better to be roughly right than precisely wrong, and we can easily see that raw swing required is not a good guide this time round for the LibDem targets at least.
Seconded, very informative.
Thirded. I don't agree on all points with @Black_Rook but the points of difference are themselves useful for helping me work through my thinking.
Never write off the Liberal Democrats in defence, at least not without good reason.
Olney won that seat recently, in circumstances of Conservative scandal, and it's about 70:30 Remain. IMHO the Lib Dems could have more trouble holding on to North Norfolk, and especially Southport and Carshalton & Wallington, than this one.
If forced to make a prediction, I'd say she'll hold it.
I think Southport is safer than is supposed. It voted Remain by a decent margin. It's been Lib/LibDem for all but five years of the past 30 and has transitioned between MPs in the past. 2016 also saw the strongest LibDem performance in local elections there in a very long time. I'd reckon they'll keep it.
I suspect they'll lose Richmond, but much depends on who the Conservative candidate is. North Norfolk and Carshalton would be my ones to watch: both are Leave seats, and North Norfolk has a big UKIP vote to squeeze. It would be a shame to lose Norman Lamb, as he is one of the LibDems I respect.
Burnley (13) also broke about 2:1 for Leave, but the Lib Dems are the main opposition to Labour rather than the Tories there, so that one is very hard to read. They'll certainly give it a good go, but Ukip + Con = 31% of the 2015 vote. I think the outcome there depends firstly on how badly Ukip folds, and secondly on whether or not local Tories vote tactically against Labour, or Labour Leavers vote tactically for the Tories to defeat the Lib Dems.
Bermondsey & Old Southwark (14) is a likely gain. Simon Hughes is standing again, he has a makeable majority off 4,500 to overturn, Southwark is ultra-Remain, and the sitting Labour MP, Neil Coyle, is one of the Morons.
Yeovil (15) is in Leave territory with a large bank of Ukip voters and a Lib Dem candidate who has just unexpectedly quit, so I think we can write that off.
Beyond Fife NE (16,) which I've already mentioned, swings of 5% or greater are needed and life starts to get a bit more challenging. Current Scottish data suggests Caithness (17) is beyond them. Colchester (18) has a 5,500 Tory majority and is also Leave. Cheltenham (19) is, however, probably worth a pop for reasons previously mentioned, and by the same logic some people think they might bag Cheadle (20.) After that, I think the only other reasonably decent chance is Cardiff Central (25,) a two-horse race with Labour that could swing their way if the only other large bloc of voters - the Tories, who can't realistically win the seat - deploy anti-Labour tactical voting. My choice for a long-shot punt would be Oxford West & Abingdon (36,) where the Conservatives have a 9,500 majority but the electorate is substantially pro-Remain, and the third place party is Labour not Ukip. The sitting Tory MP is a Remainer, but has been involved in some controversies.
A great summary of the LD target list. What do you think of Richmond Park?
Never write off the Liberal Democrats in defence, at least not without good reason.
Olney won that seat recently, in circumstances of Conservative scandal, and it's about 70:30 Remain. IMHO the Lib Dems could have more trouble holding on to North Norfolk, and especially Southport and Carshalton & Wallington, than this one.
If forced to make a prediction, I'd say she'll hold it.
Pleased with my 25/1 on LDs retaining RP!
That was the first proper bookie f...up of the election (as opposed to typo or transpose errors). They'd obviously looked at the 2015 results and forgotten about the by-election when pricing it up. I think that seat is 50/50, the Tories will go hard to win it back and the LDs might be too busy in Twickenham and Kingston to help Sarah out.
Burnley (13) also broke about 2:1 for Leave, but the Lib Dems are the main opposition to Labour rather than the Tories there, so that one is very hard to read. They'll certainly give it a good go, but Ukip + Con = 31% of the 2015 vote. I think the outcome there depends firstly on how badly Ukip folds, and secondly on whether or not local Tories vote tactically against Labour, or Labour Leavers vote tactically for the Tories to defeat the Lib Dems.
Bermondsey & Old Southwark (14) is a likely gain. Simon Hughes is standing again, he has a makeable majority off 4,500 to overturn, Southwark is ultra-Remain, and the sitting Labour MP, Neil Coyle, is one of the Morons.
Yeovil (15) is in Leave territory with a large bank of Ukip voters and a Lib Dem candidate who has just unexpectedly quit, so I think we can write that off.
Beyond Fife NE (16,) which I've already mentioned, swings of 5% or greater are needed and life starts to get a bit more challenging. Current Scottish data suggests Caithness (17) is beyond them. Colchester (18) has a 5,500 Tory majority and is also Leave. Cheltenham (19) is, however, probably worth a pop for reasons previously mentioned, and by the same logic some people think they might bag Cheadle (20.) After that, I think the only other reasonably decent chance is Cardiff Central (25,) a two-horse race with Labour that could swing their way if the only other large bloc of voters - the Tories, who can't realistically win the seat - deploy anti-Labour tactical voting. My choice for a long-shot punt would be Oxford West & Abingdon (36,) where the Conservatives have a 9,500 majority but the electorate is substantially pro-Remain, and the third place party is Labour not Ukip. The sitting Tory MP is a Remainer, but has been involved in some controversies.
A great summary of the LD target list. What do you think of Richmond Park?
Never write off the Liberal Democrats in defence, at least not without good reason.
Olney won that seat recently, in circumstances of Conservative scandal, and it's about 70:30 Remain. IMHO the Lib Dems could have more trouble holding on to North Norfolk, and especially Southport and Carshalton & Wallington, than this one.
If forced to make a prediction, I'd say she'll hold it.
Pleased with my 25/1 on LDs retaining RP!
And by-election victors of all colours have a good track record of winning their seat in the following GE, particularly if it follows soon afterwards. Voters have a sense that their new MP is entitled to a fair go.
Reckless was an exception, but since he had been the MP before, that doesn't really count anyway.
Looking at the Survation cross tabs they had to do a hell of a reweight based on 2014 Yes/No adding almost 10% to the population of No voters. At least this time they had more No voters than Yes in the raw sample
Other Scotland only pollsters do not have this problem.
I suspect they'll lose Richmond, but much depends on who the Conservative candidate is. North Norfolk and Carshalton would be my ones to watch: both are Leave seats, and North Norfolk has a big UKIP vote to squeeze. It would be a shame to lose Norman Lamb, as he is one of the LibDems I respect.
from my experience in north norfolk the people do seem to like Norman Lamb and the incumbent MP in some seats has kept them in place at elections when they really should have gone.
I'm on the Lib Dems in Hornsey & Wood Green at 3/1 and I'm very happy with that. I shall explain my logic, which has relevance for other seats, in a thread header when I get the time.
That would be interesting to hear. You are sceptical (as I am) of a major LD revival in this election, IIRC. However, I wouldn't necessarily have chosen Hornsey as one of the prime Lib Dem targets...
Well, where would you choose ?
Good question!
Right, let's start our way down the list of targets.
St.Ives (8) is doubtless one they'll have a crack at, as it's their best chance in the West Country (to the West of Bath, anyway!) They're doing well on the council, but Cornwall is a Leave area and there are Ukip voters available for the defending Tories to exploit. I don't particularly rate their chances. Ditto Torbay (10) which split almost 2:1 for Leave.
(TBC...)
I rather disagree re-Cambridge - which flatters to deceive.Firstly because the Labour MP can expect a first term incumbency boost and is a an ardent Remainer himself in so far as that proves salient. Secondly Cambridge was normally a Tory seat until 1992. The LibDems have only managed to progress there via tactical Tory votes. However, if the Tories really are going to poll circa 45% nationally why would they not return home to support their own candidate? Labour has twice - 1992 & 2015 - won the seat from third place. Why would the Tories not also contemplate that?
Mr. Rabbit, sadly, the Richmond Park constituency is now missing from Betfair Sportsbook, where I got on at 26. I'm sure the odds will be less kind when it reappears.
Commander Shepard, I thought you had a funny look on your face
Never write off the Liberal Democrats in defence, at least not without good reason.
Olney won that seat recently, in circumstances of Conservative scandal, and it's about 70:30 Remain. IMHO the Lib Dems could have more trouble holding on to North Norfolk, and especially Southport and Carshalton & Wallington, than this one.
If forced to make a prediction, I'd say she'll hold it.
I think Southport is safer than is supposed. It voted Remain by a decent margin. It's been Lib/LibDem for all but five years of the past 30 and has transitioned between MPs in the past. 2016 also saw the strongest LibDem performance in local elections there in a very long time. I'd reckon they'll keep it.
I suspect they'll lose Richmond, but much depends on who the Conservative candidate is. North Norfolk and Carshalton would be my ones to watch: both are Leave seats, and North Norfolk has a big UKIP vote to squeeze. It would be a shame to lose Norman Lamb, as he is one of the LibDems I respect.
Are you so sure about Southport? I had a little look: according to the BBC EU ref result map, Sefton Council area voted 52:48 Remain, but Baxter estimates the seat as 54:46 Leave.
Then again, I wasn't aware of those good council results, so perhaps you're right!
Burnley (13) also broke about 2:1 for Leave, but the Lib Dems are the main opposition to Labour rather than the Tories there, so that one is very hard to read. They'll certainly give it a good go, but Ukip + Con = 31% of the 2015 vote. I think the outcome there depends firstly on how badly Ukip folds, and secondly on whether or not local Tories vote tactically against Labour, or Labour Leavers vote tactically for the Tories to defeat the Lib Dems.
Bermondsey & Old Southwark (14) is a likely gain. Simon Hughes is standing again, he has a makeable majority off 4,500 to overturn, Southwark is ultra-Remain, and the sitting Labour MP, Neil Coyle, is one of the Morons.
Yeovil (15) is in Leave territory with a large bank of Ukip voters and a Lib Dem candidate who has just unexpectedly quit, so I think we can write that off.
Beyond Fife NE (16,) which I've already mentioned, swings of 5% or greater are needed and life starts to get a bit more challenging. Current Scottish data suggests Caithness (17) is beyond them. Colchester (18) has a 5,500 Tory majority and is also Leave. Cheltenham (19) is, however, probably worth a pop for reasons previously mentioned, and by the same logic some people think they might bag Cheadle (20.) After that, I think the only other reasonably decent chance is Cardiff Central (25,) a two-horse race with Labour that could swing their way if the only other large bloc of voters - the Tories, who can't realistically win the seat - deploy anti-Labour tactical voting. My choice for a long-shot punt would be Oxford West & Abingdon (36,) where the Conservatives have a 9,500 majority but the electorate is substantially pro-Remain, and the third place party is Labour not Ukip. The sitting Tory MP is a Remainer, but has been involved in some controversies.
I don't think Neil Coyle is seen as a moron at all. He has made quite an impact and is known to be very Anti - Corbyn.
Never write off the Liberal Democrats in defence, at least not without good reason.
Olney won that seat recently, in circumstances of Conservative scandal, and it's about 70:30 Remain. IMHO the Lib Dems could have more trouble holding on to North Norfolk, and especially Southport and Carshalton & Wallington, than this one.
If forced to make a prediction, I'd say she'll hold it.
I think Southport is safer than is supposed. It voted Remain by a decent margin. It's been Lib/LibDem for all but five years of the past 30 and has transitioned between MPs in the past. 2016 also saw the strongest LibDem performance in local elections there in a very long time. I'd reckon they'll keep it.
I suspect they'll lose Richmond, but much depends on who the Conservative candidate is. North Norfolk and Carshalton would be my ones to watch: both are Leave seats, and North Norfolk has a big UKIP vote to squeeze. It would be a shame to lose Norman Lamb, as he is one of the LibDems I respect.
I think Norman will be just fine. If they survived 2015, they'll make it through this one no sweat.
Who of the other 3 will the strong showing for Melanchon have hurt the most? If Le Pen, it hardly matters as she wasn't going to win anyway, and she'll still likely get into the top 2. I'd have assumed Macron, but he's still doing fine if that is right.
If Melenchon comes 4th that is not that strong a showing
in 7 weeks time Corbyn may look wistfully upon Melenchon's 18% of the vote
With 24% Macron is on track for victory. Corbyn can at least emulate the first part of that.
Comments
Morbihan 73.79%
Côtes-d'Armor 76.31%
Finistère 72.68%
Ille et Vilaine 70.63%
crude unweighted average: 73.35%
average for France 69.42%
2012 close-of-polls figures:
Brittany (four departments): 84.68%
average for whole of France: 79.48%
So compared to the whole of France, Brittany 0.6% behind par at 5pm.
100-1 Spurs to finish outside the top 4.
You know it, I know, but no-one's told the bookies. Fill your boots.
but if she is being attracting lots of hate on trwtter, that might suggest she is more of a Liberal (classical variety) and less of a Liberal (socialism in disscies variety)
Which is good to know!
Just the Electoral College.
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/856083543038021633
Right, let's start our way down the list of targets.
Cambridge (1) is a gimme. If the Lib Dems can't bag that, they're toast.
Eastbourne (2) and Lewes (3) are also both very, very tight marginals. Only Lewes out of the pair is Remain-leaning, but the Lib Dems control Eastbourne Borough Council and have made progress in local elections there in recent years. They're clearly both worth a crack.
There are three marginal seats in the vicinity of Bristol: Thornbury & Yate (4), Bath (12) and Cheltenham (19.) Bath and Cheltenham are both Remain-leaning. Thornbury & Yate was near 50:50 in the referendum, but it's a very tight contest on paper, and worth a go.
Twickenham (5) looks a likely gain as it is tight, and Vince Cable is standing again for the Yellows. Also in West London they'll be looking at Kingston & Surbiton (7) and Sutton & Cheam (11.) Kingston is a good target because it's 60:40 Remain, but Sutton has a higher Tory majority, no referendum advantage, and as many Kippers as Labourites for the two sides to gather votes from. The Lib Dems do not have infinite resources and may prioritise the two more marginal seats (and saving Tom Brake in Carshalton) and put less effort into Sutton.
In Scotland, East Dunbartonshire (6) looks on paper like the best target, but the Lib Dems are weak on the local council and performed very poorly in the Holyrood elections in the relevant seats. Far more promising for them are Edinburgh West (9) and Fife NE (16,) where they won the constituency votes for the Scottish Parliament last year and where I understand they have a pretty good chance of turfing the SNP out.
St.Ives (8) is doubtless one they'll have a crack at, as it's their best chance in the West Country (to the West of Bath, anyway!) They're doing well on the council, but Cornwall is a Leave area and there are Ukip voters available for the defending Tories to exploit. I don't particularly rate their chances. Ditto Torbay (10) which split almost 2:1 for Leave.
(TBC...)
Bermondsey & Old Southwark (14) is a likely gain. Simon Hughes is standing again, he has a makeable majority off 4,500 to overturn, Southwark is ultra-Remain, and the sitting Labour MP, Neil Coyle, is one of the Morons.
Yeovil (15) is in Leave territory with a large bank of Ukip voters and a Lib Dem candidate who has just unexpectedly quit, so I think we can write that off.
Beyond Fife NE (16,) which I've already mentioned, swings of 5% or greater are needed and life starts to get a bit more challenging. Current Scottish data suggests Caithness (17) is beyond them. Colchester (18) has a 5,500 Tory majority and is also Leave. Cheltenham (19) is, however, probably worth a pop for reasons previously mentioned, and by the same logic some people think they might bag Cheadle (20.) After that, I think the only other reasonably decent chance is Cardiff Central (25,) a two-horse race with Labour that could swing their way if the only other large bloc of voters - the Tories, who can't realistically win the seat - deploy anti-Labour tactical voting. My choice for a long-shot punt would be Oxford West & Abingdon (36,) where the Conservatives have a 9,500 majority but the electorate is substantially pro-Remain, and the third place party is Labour not Ukip. The sitting Tory MP is a Remainer, but has been involved in some controversies.
CON 410, LAB 166, LD 7 (titters), SNP 44
I did read somewhere that the MP in Oxford West my have some difficulty getting selected by his local association.
An excellent post on the LibDem chances, and one I very much agree with. I think they'll end up on 14-16 seats, unless there is a total Labour meltdown. (Which is - of course - completely possible.)
Welcome!
Sorry you don't get to push any such message. People have made up their minds about Corbyn and it's not pretty. The rest is irrelevant.
Barring a black
sheepswandragon event, the only question is the size of the majority.@adamboultonSKY: That's what an unofficial exit poll by Belgians says twitter.com/afneil/status/…
Tories need Boundary reform.
Labour need Leader reform.
I would also point out that the exit polls in the Spanish GE were wildly off, understating the PP by 3 or 4%. So we should wait until we see real results later this evening.
My summary would be about 10-11 gains if everything goes right for them, and possibly 2 or 3 losses. This would work out at about 17 seats at the upper end of expectations. A better performance will require a substantial uptick in national vote share (of which there is, as yet, no sign,) or quite a lot of luck.
It's not because she is a politician for the ages, she clearly is not.
It's not down her public speeches.
It's not even down to her being strong on policy, because she is average at best.
It's because she looks and acts like a hard worker in a field of one note politicians and shirkers. That's it.
Labour are led by a man that lost his mind when the Berlin wall fell, Farron can only gainsay, Sturgeon can only think of independence and the rest are no marks. Even her internal competition is a mess currently.
The public have taken to her, not in a warm way but in a "you will do what we ask of you" way.
In theory, the Conservatives could do well in places like Cambridge on the back of overtaking the LibDems. But I suspect they won't.
Olney won that seat recently, in circumstances of Conservative scandal, and it's about 70:30 Remain. IMHO the Lib Dems could have more trouble holding on to North Norfolk, and especially Southport and Carshalton & Wallington, than this one.
If forced to make a prediction, I'd say she'll hold it.
What I'd really like to do is put together an ordered list of LibDem targets by probability, not by swing required since 2015. Obviously, this would be somewhat subjective, but it's better to be roughly right than precisely wrong, and we can easily see that raw swing required is not a good guide this time round for the LibDem targets at least.
Corbyn is dead right the system is rigged, very much so.
I just think its rigged in his favour and he would make it worse, possibly very much worse!
Commander Shepard, I thought you had a funny look on your face
I suspect they'll lose Richmond, but much depends on who the Conservative candidate is. North Norfolk and Carshalton would be my ones to watch: both are Leave seats, and North Norfolk has a big UKIP vote to squeeze. It would be a shame to lose Norman Lamb, as he is one of the LibDems I respect.
Reckless was an exception, but since he had been the MP before, that doesn't really count anyway.
Other Scotland only pollsters do not have this problem.
I am happy with my position. I can't lose.
Then again, I wasn't aware of those good council results, so perhaps you're right!