Interesting but I'd add in Withington. No one seems to fancy them but they only lost the seat in 2015 because of their dirty deal with the Tories and as that's now forgotten and Corbyn is disliked and the previous popular MP is standing again and it's strongly Remain I think the chances are much better than the basic necessary swing suggests.
That's not impossible but, as with Hornsey & Wood Green, we're into the territory of guessing whether or not ennui with Corbyn and the EU referendum result are enough for the Lib Dems - who are still polling at half their 2010 strength nationally - to overturn vast Labour majorities in inner city seats where they might otherwise remain strong.
Labour start in that constituency with an absolute majority of all votes cast, the national swings from Lab to LD are significant but not huge, and the also-ran vote is largely Tory and Ukip. I don't rate the Lib Dems' chances that highly.
I'm guessing you don't think they'll win Vauxhall either :-)
If Kate Hoey gets turfed out I'll eat my hat*
(*A tasty biscuit hat, baked lovingly with my own fair hands. But my hat, nonetheless.)
A long time ago (at least 30 years) I read that the expression "I'll eat my hat if ..." originally came from the Netherlands, where hatte was a milky preparation fed to kids as a tonic to ensure healthy growth but which was unpleasant to taste. Hence kids would say to mothers or nannies, 'I'll eat my hatte if I get to do/eat x'
Never seen that explanation elsewhere since and have long since misplaced the book I read it in - can't even remember the title, but it was on the origins of English.
I prefer it to any other explanation I have read elsewhere, regardless of veracity.
So, with a very accurate sampling method, no way Macron isn't in top two, presidency decided. That result for the Socialists though, oof, it's embarrassing.
The exit poll certainly very close to the earlier polls. A tiny reservation that we still haven't got any counted votes. But the margins look convincing.Interesting that the ISIS attack doesn't seem to have given Le Pen a boost.
The exit poll certainly very close to the earlier polls. A tiny reservation that we still haven't got any counted votes. But the margins look convincing.Interesting that the ISIS attack doesn't seem to have given Le Pen a boost.
They are counted votes! See Guardian live blog for details.
If Macron looks to be well ahead according to the official exit poll, I won't bother following matters - it doesn't seem like it will matter how everything else shakes out if that is true, so it'd be dull.
Just waiting on that Welsh polling - with the Scottish stuff setting the stage for huuuge expectations for the Tories, if it shows anything less than a sizable Tory majority in Wales (seats), that'd be a let down.
You've got another 24 hours before that Welsh poll comes out
It's not early Monday? Lame.
Just bet on Con gains now and you'll be in profit by tomorrow.
I guess that there is slightly more chance of error in France than previously, as their choice of which polling stations to sample is based on past elections, and this one is really quite different in terms of the parties in contention.
However, it does look as if it's broadly bearing out the polling and Macron and Le Pen are actually relatively comfortably through.
The exit poll certainly very close to the earlier polls. A tiny reservation that we still haven't got any counted votes. But the margins look convincing.Interesting that the ISIS attack doesn't seem to have given Le Pen a boost.
Nick that official poll is a sample of actual votes. Bound to be some margin of error but you'd assume they've got a decent sampling
Now just a question of how well Le Pen might manage. Presumably much better than her dad's 17%, so time to improve on that for when Le Pen III has a go. Though having stumbled from topping the first round as long expected, perhaps it won't be as good a runner up as she'd like.
To be pedantic, it's not really an exit poll, it's based on actual vote counts in selected areas that are calculated to be representative.
With barely 1% it pretty much is a first wave exit poll and it least in sampling is what Curtice tries to do even if you have to wait a little longer for the actual votes to be counted
The exit poll certainly very close to the earlier polls. A tiny reservation that we still haven't got any counted votes. But the margins look convincing.Interesting that the ISIS attack doesn't seem to have given Le Pen a boost.
They are counted votes! See Guardian live blog for details.
Ah, I see - thanks. But are these various estimates coming out all exit polls?
Ahead of an avalanche of constituency odds likely to appear over the next 48 hours (including those from the somewhat laid back it has to be said Shadsy), could someone please produce a list of Labour seats with a 5,000 - 10,000 majority with the Tories in second place. If there are gems to be found, it's probably within that parameter. Although I suggested Margaret Beckett as a credible candidate to become the next Speaker, her 8.8k majority in low turnout Derby South appears to be at risk with the Tories also set to grab a good share of the 10% UKIP vote in 2015. Last time I looked Betfair Sportsbook's odds were 11/2.
Ahead of an avalanche of constituency odds likely to appear over the next 48 hours (including those from the somewhat laid back it has to be said Shadsy), could someone please produce a list of Labour seats with a 5,000 - 10,000 majority with the Tories in second place. If there are gems to be found, it's probably within that parameter. Although I suggested Margaret Beckett as a credible candidate to become the next Speaker, her 8.8k majority in low turnout Derby South appears to be at risk with the Tories also set to grab a good share of the 10% UKIP vote in 2015.
DYOR
Peter. Yes. I can do this for you.
Can we agree an hourly rate for the work and I'll crack on ....
Ahead of an avalanche of constituency odds likely to appear over the next 48 hours (including those from the somewhat laid back it has to be said Shadsy), could someone please produce a list of Labour seats with a 5,000 - 10,000 majority with the Tories in second place. If there are gems to be found, it's probably within that parameter. Although I suggested Margaret Beckett as a credible candidate to become the next Speaker, her 8.8k majority in low turnout Derby South appears to be at risk with the Tories also set to grab a good share of the 10% UKIP vote in 2015.
Interesting but I'd add in Withington. No one seems to fancy them but they only lost the seat in 2015 because of their dirty deal with the Tories and as that's now forgotten and Corbyn is disliked and the previous popular MP is standing again and it's strongly Remain I think the chances are much better than the basic necessary swing suggests.
That's not impossible but, as with Hornsey & Wood Green, we're into the territory of guessing whether or not ennui with Corbyn and the EU referendum result are enough for the Lib Dems - who are still polling at half their 2010 strength nationally - to overturn vast Labour majorities in inner city seats where they might otherwise remain strong.
Labour start in that constituency with an absolute majority of all votes cast, the national swings from Lab to LD are significant but not huge, and the also-ran vote is largely Tory and Ukip. I don't rate the Lib Dems' chances that highly.
I'm guessing you don't think they'll win Vauxhall either :-)
If Kate Hoey gets turfed out I'll eat my hat*
(*A tasty biscuit hat, baked lovingly with my own fair hands. But my hat, nonetheless.)
A long time ago (at least 30 years) I read that the expression "I'll eat my hat if ..." originally came from the Netherlands, where hatte was a milky preparation fed to kids as a tonic to ensure healthy growth but which was unpleasant to taste. Hence kids would say to mothers or nannies, 'I'll eat my hatte if I get to do/eat x'
Never seen that explanation elsewhere since and have long since misplaced the book I read it in - can't even remember the title, but it was on the origins of English.
I prefer it to any other explanation I have read elsewhere, regardless of veracity.
I haven't hear that particular explanation before, but while dating a Dutch Girl for 2 years I realised that there are a lot of English words and expressions with Dutch backgrounds, that have come into the English lagwage, sometimes with a lot of distortion, so I could well believe the 'eat my hat' story.
So what is the downside to putting a chunk of money on Macron now at 1.15 or whatever? When is the 2nd round - terrorist activities or something coming out about Macron? and how does the probability of that compare with the odds? Or are there better things on the UK election rather than french leadership?
Ahead of an avalanche of constituency odds likely to appear over the next 48 hours (including those from the somewhat laid back it has to be said Shadsy), could someone please produce a list of Labour seats with a 5,000 - 10,000 majority with the Tories in second place. If there are gems to be found, it's probably within that parameter. Although I suggested Margaret Beckett as a credible candidate to become the next Speaker, her 8.8k majority in low turnout Derby South appears to be at risk with the Tories also set to grab a good share of the 10% UKIP vote in 2015.
DYOR
Peter. Yes. I can do this for you.
Can we agree an hourly rate for the work and I'll crack on ....
Thanks for your very generous offer stjohn, but as you'll see upthread AndyJS has already provided this for free!
Ahead of an avalanche of constituency odds likely to appear over the next 48 hours (including those from the somewhat laid back it has to be said Shadsy), could someone please produce a list of Labour seats with a 5,000 - 10,000 majority with the Tories in second place. If there are gems to be found, it's probably within that parameter. Although I suggested Margaret Beckett as a credible candidate to become the next Speaker, her 8.8k majority in low turnout Derby South appears to be at risk with the Tories also set to grab a good share of the 10% UKIP vote in 2015.
Ahead of an avalanche of constituency odds likely to appear over the next 48 hours (including those from the somewhat laid back it has to be said Shadsy), could someone please produce a list of Labour seats with a 5,000 - 10,000 majority with the Tories in second place. If there are gems to be found, it's probably within that parameter. Although I suggested Margaret Beckett as a credible candidate to become the next Speaker, her 8.8k majority in low turnout Derby South appears to be at risk with the Tories also set to grab a good share of the 10% UKIP vote in 2015.
Ahead of an avalanche of constituency odds likely to appear over the next 48 hours (including those from the somewhat laid back it has to be said Shadsy), could someone please produce a list of Labour seats with a 5,000 - 10,000 majority with the Tories in second place. If there are gems to be found, it's probably within that parameter. Although I suggested Margaret Beckett as a credible candidate to become the next Speaker, her 8.8k majority in low turnout Derby South appears to be at risk with the Tories also set to grab a good share of the 10% UKIP vote in 2015.
DYOR
Peter. Yes. I can do this for you.
Can we agree an hourly rate for the work and I'll crack on ....
Thanks for your very generous offer stjohn, but as you'll see upthread AndyJS has already provided this for free!
Sad to see an honest craftsman undercut on price like that. I blame Globalisation.
Ahead of an avalanche of constituency odds likely to appear over the next 48 hours (including those from the somewhat laid back it has to be said Shadsy), could someone please produce a list of Labour seats with a 5,000 - 10,000 majority with the Tories in second place. If there are gems to be found, it's probably within that parameter. Although I suggested Margaret Beckett as a credible candidate to become the next Speaker, her 8.8k majority in low turnout Derby South appears to be at risk with the Tories also set to grab a good share of the 10% UKIP vote in 2015.
DYOR
Peter. Yes. I can do this for you.
Can we agree an hourly rate for the work and I'll crack on ....
Thanks for your very generous offer stjohn, but as you'll see upthread AndyJS has already provided this for free!
Sad to see an honest craftsman undercut on price like that. I blame Globalisation.
A long-years PB.com mostly-lurker, addicted polanorak but betting rank-amateur, only betting at GE/Referendum time, my first serious bet was on Con Maj for 2015 - yay! - thanks to some chaps here and my usually unreliable gut feeling.
I bet very small at 5 bookies, mostly on tips from shrewdies hereabouts plus large dollops of DYOR. My biggest risk this time (thus far, anyway) is low double figures on that SkyBet triple which exactly mirrors my longtime instinct. If I win, double-yay. If I lose, meh. But great fun. I've got about 20 smaller fun bets on the go, too. Loads of excitement for the price of a posh coffee a day, basically. Or the Price of a packet of Tissue.
This is the best-informed political site in the UK, imo, even aside from the betting, not to mention the most literate, relaxed and bloody witty.
You chaps keep me up late most election-campaign nights, just (but not only) for the craic as my Irish grandmother would Ave It, and this is the best possible place for a polanorak to spend election night. Better than being at the count, for sure.
Many thanks to all. (Even the rude posters. With three exceptions. You know who you are.) Particularly OGH and the mod team.
Comments
Macron 23%
Le Pen 23%
Fillon 19%
Melenchon 19%
Never seen that explanation elsewhere since and have long since misplaced the book I read it in - can't even remember the title, but it was on the origins of English.
I prefer it to any other explanation I have read elsewhere, regardless of veracity.
Le Pen 21.7
Fillon 19.5
Melechon 19.5
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28010557/market?marketId=1.117179983
Ah well. Still my first ever leadership/presidential market where I'm ahead.
However, it does look as if it's broadly bearing out the polling and Macron and Le Pen are actually relatively comfortably through.
Looks like my book will come out at £25 or £50 which is useful considering it was underwater for most of the campaign.
NEW THREAD
Although I suggested Margaret Beckett as a credible candidate to become the next Speaker, her 8.8k majority in low turnout Derby South appears to be at risk with the Tories also set to grab a good share of the 10% UKIP vote in 2015. Last time I looked Betfair Sportsbook's odds were 11/2.
DYOR
Can we agree an hourly rate for the work and I'll crack on ....
I haven't hear that particular explanation before, but while dating a Dutch Girl for 2 years I realised that there are a lot of English words and expressions with Dutch backgrounds, that have come into the English lagwage, sometimes with a lot of distortion, so I could well believe the 'eat my hat' story.
A long-years PB.com mostly-lurker, addicted polanorak but betting rank-amateur, only betting at GE/Referendum time, my first serious bet was on Con Maj for 2015 - yay! - thanks to some chaps here and my usually unreliable gut feeling.
I bet very small at 5 bookies, mostly on tips from shrewdies hereabouts plus large dollops of DYOR. My biggest risk this time (thus far, anyway) is low double figures on that SkyBet triple which exactly mirrors my longtime instinct. If I win, double-yay. If I lose, meh. But great fun. I've got about 20 smaller fun bets on the go, too. Loads of excitement for the price of a posh coffee a day, basically. Or the Price of a packet of Tissue.
This is the best-informed political site in the UK, imo, even aside from the betting, not to mention the most literate, relaxed and bloody witty.
You chaps keep me up late most election-campaign nights, just (but not only) for the craic as my Irish grandmother would Ave It, and this is the best possible place for a polanorak to spend election night. Better than being at the count, for sure.
Many thanks to all. (Even the rude posters. With three exceptions. You know who you are.) Particularly OGH and the mod team.