No, getting rid of Corbyn is the answer to Labour's problems. Well not all of them, but it's a start.
It's barely a start - the public have taken to May, not with huge enthusiasm, but I think they see her as safe and steady in a difficult period. Her appeal is of course enhanced by Corbyn but it is deeper than just dislike of him. Her votes will come predominantly from the 'duller' parts of the electorate in the parts of Britain about which the metropolitico journalists know little, dislike and would prefer to ignore. There are a few posters on here with similar views - they detest what JC has done to 'their' party but end up taking greater comfort in sneering at May and worse because in the end their tribalism is more important than the country but they don't like to admit it. I voted Remain and can say with total convictionthe the best prospect for a half-decent Brexit will come from a May led government with a 50+ majority.
I also have zero sympathy for the Labour MPS who have effectively allowed this shambles in the party to moulder on for the past few years and yet have the gall now to beg for sympathy votes on the basis of a vague promise not to back JC for PM. Anyone who believes such trite nonsense deserves him as PM next June.
I think Labour would be well advised to push the message thay May 'has a compulsive aversion to not telling the truth'.
Have you perhaps doubled up on your negatives?
I thought that Mrs May's change of mind over the GE is considered evidence that she isn't averse to not telling the truth?
Who of the other 3 will the strong showing for Melanchon have hurt the most? If Le Pen, it hardly matters as she wasn't going to win anyway, and she'll still likely get into the top 2. I'd have assumed Macron, but he's still doing fine if that is right.
If Melenchon comes 4th that is not that strong a showing
in 7 weeks time Corbyn may look wistfully upon Melenchon's 18% of the vote
With 24% Macron is on track for victory. Corbyn can at least emulate the first part of that.
Corybn would look at Hamon, surely. A left-wing candidate from a centre-left party... getting 8% of the vote...
If the French are so obsessed with restricting polling in the last days of the campaign, and allowing things which could distort the election, why do they start counting the votes before polls close and therefore allow other countries media to publicise the results?
It looks like an exit poll.
The extent of leaks from any number of sources throughout the day has been an absolute joke, making an absolute mockery of the ban on opinion polls over recent days. At what time, BST do the polls close and is there a universal closure time throughout France?
Burnley (13) also broke about 2:1 for Leave, but the Lib Dems are the main opposition to Labour rather than the Tories there, so that one is very hard to read. They'll certainly give it a good go, but Ukip + Con = 31% of the 2015 vote. I think the outcome there depends firstly on how badly Ukip folds, and secondly on whether or not local Tories vote tactically against Labour, or Labour Leavers vote tactically for the Tories to defeat the Lib Dems.
Bermondsey & Old Southwark (14) is a likely gain. Simon Hughes is standing again, he has a makeable majority off 4,500 to overturn, Southwark is ultra-Remain, and the sitting Labour MP, Neil Coyle, is one of the Morons.
Yeovil (15) is in Leave territory with a large bank of Ukip voters and a Lib Dem candidate who has just unexpectedly quit, so I think we can write that off.
Beyond Fife NE (16,) which I've already mentioned, swings of 5% or greater are needed and life starts to get a bit more challenging. Current Scottish data suggests Caithness (17) is beyond them. Colchester (18) has a 5,500 Tory majority and is also Leave. Cheltenham (19) is, however, probably worth a pop for reasons previously mentioned, and by the same logic some people think they might bag Cheadle (20.) After that, I think the only other reasonably decent chance is Cardiff Central (25,) a two-horse race with Labour that could swing their way if the only other large bloc of voters - the Tories, who can't realistically win the seat - deploy anti-Labour tactical voting. My choice for a long-shot punt would be Oxford West & Abingdon (36,) where the Conservatives have a 9,500 majority but the electorate is substantially pro-Remain, and the third place party is Labour not Ukip. The sitting Tory MP is a Remainer, but has been involved in some controversies.
Interesting but I'd add in Withington. No one seems to fancy them but they only lost the seat in 2015 because of their dirty deal with the Tories and as that's now forgotten and Corbyn is disliked and the previous popular MP is standing again and it's strongly Remain I think the chances are much better than the basic necessary swing suggests.
If the French are so obsessed with restricting polling in the last days of the campaign, and allowing things which could distort the election, why do they start counting the votes before polls close and therefore allow other countries media to publicise the results?
It looks like an exit poll.
The extent of leaks from any number of sources throughout the day has been an absolute joke, making an absolute mockery of the ban on opinion polls over recent days. At what time, BST do the polls close and is there a universal closure time throughout France?
Polls have closed in rural areas, they are open to 7PM our time in cities. An official exit poll will follow shortly thereafter
Yes, excellent post by @Black_Rook (as is often the case).
What I'd really like to do is put together an ordered list of LibDem targets by probability, not by swing required since 2015. Obviously, this would be somewhat subjective, but it's better to be roughly right than precisely wrong, and we can easily see that raw swing required is not a good guide this time round for the LibDem targets at least.
It would be very useful for those of us "under 28.5" to know the 20/21 gains needed and bet accordingly. I agree with Black Rock for the most part. Bob Russell is standing in Colchester by the way. Significant personal vote, for all the good it did him before...!
I have just read that Bob Russell is giving it a go. Labour, not Ukip, are third in the seat, but I still don't fancy his chances - not against a 5,500 majority and with a large swing required (nearly 6% in theory, but in practice I think he needs to pick up a lot more votes than that implies, allowing for Ukip squeeze and the current strength of the Government's position.)
Corbyn got elected on an anti-austerity platform. It may have been appealing with Osborne in the treasury, but it has become moot with Hammond easing up on the cuts anyway. With Labour promising to retain the triple lock and the Tories potentially ditching the no tax rises rule, Labour have somehow found themselves to the right of the Tories on the economy.
Yes, as last time the French ban on polls at the end is uneforceable in Belgium and Switzerland. The figures look plausible, but remember that it's a poll - people are still voting!
This is what being a Tottenham fan for the last quarter of a century must feel like. Hope is going into a Premier League campaign with the sixth biggest wage bill and still fancying you might win it. Hope is turning up at Wembley for an FA Cup semi-final full of optimism, even though the man who scored the last time you won one is now 56 years old, greying and presenting the BBC’s television coverage. Hope is ripping off the plaster and daring yourself not to see the scar underneath.
Generally speaking, what will the effect of the County Council (etc) elections be on each of the Parties' fortunes? For example, will good results for the Conservatives accelerate or retard their General Election campaign - will their success in May cause voters to reign them back in June? Similarly, if the LDs do well in some areas, will they be able to re-define their target seats quickly enough, or will their opponents be able to deploy resources there to see them off? Will the May elections prevent anyone from coming "under the radar"?
Yes, as last time the French ban on polls at the end is uneforceable in Belgium and Switzerland. The figures look plausible, but remember that it's a poll - people are still voting!
Vaguely surprised that the ban isn't somehow enforceable, or at least punishable to make them think twice. Couldn't they remove accreditation for offending organisations when covering Government events?
Yes, excellent post by @Black_Rook (as is often the case).
What I'd really like to do is put together an ordered list of LibDem targets by probability, not by swing required since 2015. Obviously, this would be somewhat subjective, but it's better to be roughly right than precisely wrong, and we can easily see that raw swing required is not a good guide this time round for the LibDem targets at least.
I like number crunching, so I'll go away and have a little think about that.
If I take my own thoughts and study the available data, I might be able to come up with something.
I would probably be proven spectacularly wrong by events, but at least I would've tried :-)
Generally speaking, what will the effect of the County Council (etc) elections be on each of the Parties' fortunes? For example, will good results for the Conservatives accelerate or retard their General Election campaign - will their success in May cause voters to reign them back in June? Similarly, if the LDs do well in some areas, will they be able to re-define their target seats quickly enough, or will their opponents be able to deploy resources there to see them off? Will the May elections prevent anyone from coming "under the radar"?
UK Polling Report had this to say on the matter:
In 1983 and 1987 the local elections were in May and the general elections followed in June. Notably they were really NOT a good predictor of the general election a month later. Comparing the Rallings & Thrasher estimates for the local elections those years with the subsequent general elections, in the 1983 local elections the Conservatives were ahead by 3 points… they won the general election the next month by 14 points. In the 1987 local elections the Conservatives were ahead by 6 points, in the general election a month later they were ahead by 11 points. In both cases the SDP-Liberal Alliance did much better in the locals than the general a month later. In short, when the local elections happen in May and Labour aren’t 20 points behind don’t get all excited/distraught about the polls being wrong… people just vote differently in local elections. It may well give the Lib Dems a nice boost during the campaign though.
If the French are so obsessed with restricting polling in the last days of the campaign, and allowing things which could distort the election, why do they start counting the votes before polls close and therefore allow other countries media to publicise the results?
It looks like an exit poll.
The extent of leaks from any number of sources throughout the day has been an absolute joke, making an absolute mockery of the ban on opinion polls over recent days. At what time, BST do the polls close and is there a universal closure time throughout France?
I guess that to the average Frenchman, who's not going out of his way to look for polling news, it's worked exactly as intended. French TV and respected newspaper websites will have had no coverage of this at all - for another half an hour, anyway.
Yes, as last time the French ban on polls at the end is uneforceable in Belgium and Switzerland. The figures look plausible, but remember that it's a poll - people are still voting!
Would have to be long way off for Macron not to president though, as it doesn't matter if he's first or second against Le Pen.
Yes, excellent post by @Black_Rook (as is often the case).
What I'd really like to do is put together an ordered list of LibDem targets by probability, not by swing required since 2015. Obviously, this would be somewhat subjective, but it's better to be roughly right than precisely wrong, and we can easily see that raw swing required is not a good guide this time round for the LibDem targets at least.
It would be very useful for those of us "under 28.5" to know the 20/21 gains needed and bet accordingly. I agree with Black Rock for the most part. Bob Russell is standing in Colchester by the way. Significant personal vote, for all the good it did him before...!
I have just read that Bob Russell is giving it a go. Labour, not Ukip, are third in the seat, but I still don't fancy his chances - not against a 5,500 majority and with a large swing required (nearly 6% in theory, but in practice I think he needs to pick up a lot more votes than that implies, allowing for Ukip squeeze and the current strength of the Government's position.)
Sorry Sir Bob you will not be getting my vote as much as I would want to.
Generally speaking, what will the effect of the County Council (etc) elections be on each of the Parties' fortunes? For example, will good results for the Conservatives accelerate or retard their General Election campaign - will their success in May cause voters to reign them back in June? Similarly, if the LDs do well in some areas, will they be able to re-define their target seats quickly enough, or will their opponents be able to deploy resources there to see them off? Will the May elections prevent anyone from coming "under the radar"?
It will be the LibDems' chance to get some momentum behind their campaign. And a test of whether May's support is deep or not; the wide bit we all know. The right combination of these two and the election might get interesting; otherwise the Tories simply stroll to a massive victory.
Regardless of whether he's correct or incorrect, @BlackRook, thank you for the detailed and thoughtful analysis of where the LDs can look to and the rationale for it. The sort of thing that I'm unaware of any allegedly professional journalist producing.
Yes, excellent post by @Black_Rook (as is often the case).
What I'd really like to do is put together an ordered list of LibDem targets by probability, not by swing required since 2015. Obviously, this would be somewhat subjective, but it's better to be roughly right than precisely wrong, and we can easily see that raw swing required is not a good guide this time round for the LibDem targets at least.
I like number crunching, so I'll go away and have a little think about that.
If I take my own thoughts and study the available data, I might be able to come up with something.
I would probably be proven spectacularly wrong by events, but at least I would've tried :-)
Generally speaking, what will the effect of the County Council (etc) elections be on each of the Parties' fortunes? For example, will good results for the Conservatives accelerate or retard their General Election campaign - will their success in May cause voters to reign them back in June? Similarly, if the LDs do well in some areas, will they be able to re-define their target seats quickly enough, or will their opponents be able to deploy resources there to see them off? Will the May elections prevent anyone from coming "under the radar"?
It will be the LibDems' chance to get some momentum behind their campaign. And a test of whether May's support is deep or not; the wide bit we all know. The right combination of these two and the election might get interesting; otherwise the Tories simply stroll to a massive victory.
If Labour lose a lot of councillors, are the activists really going to be motivated to pound the streets over the following month for the election? For many the former will be much more important.
Unlike many countries which operate exit polls asking voters how they voted, the initial vote estimate in French elections – in use and steadily perfected since 1965 – is based on an actual vote count.
Pollsters select about 200 polling stations around the country, in rural areas, small towns and urban agglomerations, carefully chosen to be as representative as possible of the country as a whole.
When the polling stations close – all are among those that close early, at 7pm – and as the votes are being counted, a polling official records, for a sizeable sample of the ballots, the number of votes for each candidate.
Those numbers are then run through a sophisticated computer program that adjusts them for past results and assorted variables, and produces a national vote estimate. This is not the official result, but nor is it an opinion poll.
It is usually very accurate, to within a percentage point of so – but this being an exceptionally close race, a percentage point may be decisive. So either we will have a reliable result at 7pm, or we won’t.
Personally (since I have Fillon cover) I laid Macron at 1.1 to make the final two, and backed to be President at 1.4. I think the implied odds in the second round - given so much confusion over opponent - are too low.
On France, a very useful post on the Guardian live blog:
Unlike many countries which operate exit polls asking voters how they voted, the initial vote estimate in French elections – in use and steadily perfected since 1965 – is based on an actual vote count.
Pollsters select about 200 polling stations around the country, in rural areas, small towns and urban agglomerations, carefully chosen to be as representative as possible of the country as a whole.
Interesting but I'd add in Withington. No one seems to fancy them but they only lost the seat in 2015 because of their dirty deal with the Tories and as that's now forgotten and Corbyn is disliked and the previous popular MP is standing again and it's strongly Remain I think the chances are much better than the basic necessary swing suggests.
That's not impossible but, as with Hornsey & Wood Green, we're into the territory of guessing whether or not ennui with Corbyn and the EU referendum result are enough for the Lib Dems - who are still polling at half their 2010 strength nationally - to overturn vast Labour majorities in inner city seats where they might otherwise remain strong.
Labour start in that constituency with an absolute majority of all votes cast, the national swings from Lab to LD are significant but not huge, and the also-ran vote is largely Tory and Ukip. I don't rate the Lib Dems' chances that highly.
Surprised to realise how many knighted ex Lib Dem MPs there are who are all having another go - Cable, Hughes, Davey and now Russell. I suppose that, because of the comparatively short time since the last election, there will be a higher number of former MPs and candidates standing than usual.
Personally (since I have Fillon cover) I laid Macron at 1.1 to make the final two, and backed to be President at 1.4. I think the implied odds in the second round - given so much confusion over opponent - are too low.
Is there an opponent Macron would be worse off than 1.4 to beat, I wonder...
Interesting but I'd add in Withington. No one seems to fancy them but they only lost the seat in 2015 because of their dirty deal with the Tories and as that's now forgotten and Corbyn is disliked and the previous popular MP is standing again and it's strongly Remain I think the chances are much better than the basic necessary swing suggests.
That's not impossible but, as with Hornsey & Wood Green, we're into the territory of guessing whether or not ennui with Corbyn and the EU referendum result are enough for the Lib Dems - who are still polling at half their 2010 strength nationally - to overturn vast Labour majorities in inner city seats where they might otherwise remain strong.
Labour start in that constituency with an absolute majority of all votes cast, the national swings from Lab to LD are significant but not huge, and the also-ran vote is largely Tory and Ukip. I don't rate the Lib Dems' chances that highly.
I'm guessing you don't think they'll win Vauxhall either :-)
Burnley (13) also broke about 2:1 for Leave, but the Lib Dems are the main opposition to Labour rather than the Tories there, so that one is very hard to read. They'll certainly give it a good go, but Ukip + Con = 31% of the 2015 vote. I think the outcome there depends firstly on how badly Ukip folds, and secondly on whether or not local Tories vote tactically against Labour, or Labour Leavers vote tactically for the Tories to defeat the Lib Dems.
Bermondsey & Old Southwark (14) is a likely gain. Simon Hughes is standing again, he has a makeable majority off 4,500 to overturn, Southwark is ultra-Remain, and the sitting Labour MP, Neil Coyle, is one of the Morons.
Yeovil (15) is in Leave territory with a large bank of Ukip voters and a Lib Dem candidate who has just unexpectedly quit, so I think we can write that off.
Beyond Fife NE (16,) which I've already mentioned, swings of 5% or greater are needed and life starts to get a bit more challenging. Current Scottish data suggests Caithness (17) is beyond them. Colchester (18) has a 5,500 Tory majority and is also Leave. Cheltenham (19) is, however, probably worth a pop for reasons previously mentioned, and by the same logic some people think they might bag Cheadle (20.) After that, I think the only other reasonably decent chance is Cardiff Central (25,) a two-horse race with Labour that could swing their way if the only other large bloc of voters - the Tories, who can't realistically win the seat - deploy anti-Labour tactical voting. My choice for a long-shot punt would be Oxford West & Abingdon (36,) where the Conservatives have a 9,500 majority but the electorate is substantially pro-Remain, and the third place party is Labour not Ukip. The sitting Tory MP is a Remainer, but has been involved in some controversies.
I don't think Neil Coyle is seen as a moron at all. He has made quite an impact and is known to be very Anti - Corbyn.
Apologies, I'm using obscure slang. Capital "M" Morons = the 35 who first nominated Corbyn.
Corbyn got elected on an anti-austerity platform. It may have been appealing with Osborne in the treasury, but it has become moot with Hammond easing up on the cuts anyway. With Labour promising to retain the triple lock and the Tories potentially ditching the no tax rises rule, Labour have somehow found themselves to the right of the Tories on the economy.
That is what happens when you follow your opponent all the time,
Yes, excellent post by @Black_Rook (as is often the case).
What I'd really like to do is put together an ordered list of LibDem targets by probability, not by swing required since 2015. Obviously, this would be somewhat subjective, but it's better to be roughly right than precisely wrong, and we can easily see that raw swing required is not a good guide this time round for the LibDem targets at least.
I like number crunching, so I'll go away and have a little think about that.
If I take my own thoughts and study the available data, I might be able to come up with something.
I would probably be proven spectacularly wrong by events, but at least I would've tried :-)
Brilliant, yes please!
Based off
Con 45 Lab 26 Lib Dem 16 UKIP 7
Which to my mind looks achievable if a little high for Labour/Low for the Tories I make it:
Leeds North West Sheffield Hallam Westmorland & Lonsdale Cambridge Ceredigion Orkney & Shetland Bermondsey & Old Southwark Norfolk North Dunbartonshire East Southport Cardiff Central Edinburgh West Bristol West Carshalton & Wallington Burnley Twickenham Hornsey & Wood Green Lewes Fife North East
Burnley (13) also broke about 2:1 for Leave, but the Lib Dems are the main opposition to Labour rather than the Tories there, so that one is very hard to read. They'll certainly give it a good go, but Ukip + Con = 31% of the 2015 vote. I think the outcome there depends firstly on how badly Ukip folds, and secondly on whether or not local Tories vote tactically against Labour, or Labour Leavers vote tactically for the Tories to defeat the Lib Dems.
Bermondsey & Old Southwark (14) is a likely gain. Simon Hughes is standing again, he has a makeable majority off 4,500 to overturn, Southwark is ultra-Remain, and the sitting Labour MP, Neil Coyle, is one of the Morons.
Yeovil (15) is in Leave territory with a large bank of Ukip voters and a Lib Dem candidate who has just unexpectedly quit, so I think we can write that off.
Beyond Fife NE (16,) which I've already mentioned, swings of 5% or greater are needed and life starts to get a bit more challenging. Current Scottish data suggests Caithness (17) is beyond them. Colchester (18) has a 5,500 Tory majority and is also Leave. Cheltenham (19) is, however, probably worth a pop for reasons previously mentioned, and by the same logic some people think they might bag Cheadle (20.) After that, I think the only other reasonably decent chance is Cardiff Central (25,) a two-horse race with Labour that could swing their way if the only other large bloc of voters - the Tories, who can't realistically win the seat - deploy anti-Labour tactical voting. My choice for a long-shot punt would be Oxford West & Abingdon (36,) where the Conservatives have a 9,500 majority but the electorate is substantially pro-Remain, and the third place party is Labour not Ukip. The sitting Tory MP is a Remainer, but has been involved in some controversies.
I don't think Neil Coyle is seen as a moron at all. He has made quite an impact and is known to be very Anti - Corbyn.
Apologies, I'm using obscure slang. Capital "M" Morons = the 35 who first nominated Corbyn.
Something I suspect that the LDs will shove down his throat at every possible opportunity.
it's better to be roughly right than precisely wrong
Richard, based on this view, you'd probably like, if you have not already read it, Probably Approximately Correct: Nature's Algorithms for Learning and Prospering in a Complex World by Leslie Valiant.
Yes, excellent post by @Black_Rook (as is often the case).
What I'd really like to do is put together an ordered list of LibDem targets by probability, not by swing required since 2015. Obviously, this would be somewhat subjective, but it's better to be roughly right than precisely wrong, and we can easily see that raw swing required is not a good guide this time round for the LibDem targets at least.
I like number crunching, so I'll go away and have a little think about that.
If I take my own thoughts and study the available data, I might be able to come up with something.
I would probably be proven spectacularly wrong by events, but at least I would've tried :-)
Brilliant, yes please!
Based off
Con 45 Lab 26 Lib Dem 16 UKIP 7
Which to my mind looks achievable if a little high for Labour/Low for the Tories I make it:
Leeds North West Sheffield Hallam Westmorland & Lonsdale Cambridge Ceredigion Orkney & Shetland Bermondsey & Old Southwark Norfolk North Dunbartonshire East Southport Cardiff Central Edinburgh West Bristol West Carshalton & Wallington Burnley Twickenham Hornsey & Wood Green Lewes Fife North East
For the first 20 seats. In that order.
I don't think the LDs will take Dunbartonshire East, although everyone tells me that Jo Swinson is an excellent candidate. I also only reckon there's a 20-25% chance they'll take H&WG.
Orkney & Shetland will be an absolute walkover (look at the Holyrood results), and if some bookmaker is fool enough to offer you 1-10 on it, take it.
Generally speaking, what will the effect of the County Council (etc) elections be on each of the Parties' fortunes? For example, will good results for the Conservatives accelerate or retard their General Election campaign - will their success in May cause voters to reign them back in June? Similarly, if the LDs do well in some areas, will they be able to re-define their target seats quickly enough, or will their opponents be able to deploy resources there to see them off? Will the May elections prevent anyone from coming "under the radar"?
UK Polling Report had this to say on the matter:
In 1983 and 1987 the local elections were in May and the general elections followed in June. Notably they were really NOT a good predictor of the general election a month later. Comparing the Rallings & Thrasher estimates for the local elections those years with the subsequent general elections, in the 1983 local elections the Conservatives were ahead by 3 points… they won the general election the next month by 14 points. In the 1987 local elections the Conservatives were ahead by 6 points, in the general election a month later they were ahead by 11 points. In both cases the SDP-Liberal Alliance did much better in the locals than the general a month later. In short, when the local elections happen in May and Labour aren’t 20 points behind don’t get all excited/distraught about the polls being wrong… people just vote differently in local elections. It may well give the Lib Dems a nice boost during the campaign though.
The comment re the Alliance doing better in local elections seems to be true for 1987 but false for 1983 . NEV 1983 Con 39 Lab 36 Alliance 20 GE 1983 Con 42.4 Lab 27.6 All 25.4
French polls. I'm sure someone downthread has mentioned this but there is a RTBF (Belgian broadcaster) poll doing the rounds. It is reportedly not a rolling exit poll but an emargoed poll.
A second poll from some outfit called Datoworld has reprtedly unknown cred.
Yes, excellent post by @Black_Rook (as is often the case).
What I'd really like to do is put together an ordered list of LibDem targets by probability, not by swing required since 2015. Obviously, this would be somewhat subjective, but it's better to be roughly right than precisely wrong, and we can easily see that raw swing required is not a good guide this time round for the LibDem targets at least.
I like number crunching, so I'll go away and have a little think about that.
If I take my own thoughts and study the available data, I might be able to come up with something.
I would probably be proven spectacularly wrong by events, but at least I would've tried :-)
Brilliant, yes please!
Based off
Con 45 Lab 26 Lib Dem 16 UKIP 7
Which to my mind looks achievable if a little high for Labour/Low for the Tories I make it:
Leeds North West Sheffield Hallam Westmorland & Lonsdale Cambridge Ceredigion Orkney & Shetland Bermondsey & Old Southwark Norfolk North Dunbartonshire East Southport Cardiff Central Edinburgh West Bristol West Carshalton & Wallington Burnley Twickenham Hornsey & Wood Green Lewes Fife North East
For the first 20 seats. In that order.
I don't think the LDs will take Dunbartonshire East, although everyone tells me that Jo Swinson is an excellent candidate. I also only reckon there's a 20-25% chance they'll take H&WG.
Orkney & Shetland will be an absolute walkover (look at the Holyrood results), and if some bookmaker is fool enough to offer you 1-10 on it, take it.
Mr. Rabbit, sadly, the Richmond Park constituency is now missing from Betfair Sportsbook, where I got on at 26. I'm sure the odds will be less kind when it reappears.
Commander Shepard, I thought you had a funny look on your face
The odds for the LibDems will very likely be 8/13 as per Paddy Power's price, not least because they will be using the same computer! Likewise it's clear that Ladbrokes' and Corals' odds are now precisely in sync following their merger - shame really, it appreciably reduces the competition.
Surprised to realise how many knighted ex Lib Dem MPs there are who are all having another go - Cable, Hughes, Davey and now Russell. I suppose that, because of the comparatively short time since the last election, there will be a higher number of former MPs and candidates standing than usual.
I'm sad that Lynne is not having another go in H&WG.
Personally (since I have Fillon cover) I laid Macron at 1.1 to make the final two, and backed to be President at 1.4. I think the implied odds in the second round - given so much confusion over opponent - are too low.
Is there an opponent Macron would be worse off than 1.4 to beat, I wonder...
I would be happy laying Macron at 1.4 against Melenchon, given a tv debate to come.
Mr. Pulpstar, still a bit annoyed at Fillon for not dropping out. Had three figures of green on Juppe and Bayrou (hedged, so I didn't finish behind, but still).
Yes, excellent post by @Black_Rook (as is often the case).
What I'd really like to do is put together an ordered list of LibDem targets by probability, not by swing required since 2015. Obviously, this would be somewhat subjective, but it's better to be roughly right than precisely wrong, and we can easily see that raw swing required is not a good guide this time round for the LibDem targets at least.
I like number crunching, so I'll go away and have a little think about that.
If I take my own thoughts and study the available data, I might be able to come up with something.
I would probably be proven spectacularly wrong by events, but at least I would've tried :-)
Brilliant, yes please!
Based off
Con 45 Lab 26 Lib Dem 16 UKIP 7
Which to my mind looks achievable if a little high for Labour/Low for the Tories I make it:
Leeds North West Sheffield Hallam Westmorland & Lonsdale Cambridge Ceredigion Orkney & Shetland Bermondsey & Old Southwark Norfolk North Dunbartonshire East Southport Cardiff Central Edinburgh West Bristol West Carshalton & Wallington Burnley Twickenham Hornsey & Wood Green Lewes Fife North East
For the first 20 seats. In that order.
I don't think the LDs will take Dunbartonshire East, although everyone tells me that Jo Swinson is an excellent candidate. I also only reckon there's a 20-25% chance they'll take H&WG.
Orkney & Shetland will be an absolute walkover (look at the Holyrood results), and if some bookmaker is fool enough to offer you 1-10 on it, take it.
Bookmakers are still offering 1/4 on Con to hold DCT and take BRS. I expect to see an insane price on O&S.
And to think I thought there would be no value in Scotland this time round.
@Pulpstar - is that based purely on swings and Remain/Leave figures, or have you adjusted for factors such as incumbency or whether a popular retread is standing?
Interesting but I'd add in Withington. No one seems to fancy them but they only lost the seat in 2015 because of their dirty deal with the Tories and as that's now forgotten and Corbyn is disliked and the previous popular MP is standing again and it's strongly Remain I think the chances are much better than the basic necessary swing suggests.
That's not impossible but, as with Hornsey & Wood Green, we're into the territory of guessing whether or not ennui with Corbyn and the EU referendum result are enough for the Lib Dems - who are still polling at half their 2010 strength nationally - to overturn vast Labour majorities in inner city seats where they might otherwise remain strong.
Labour start in that constituency with an absolute majority of all votes cast, the national swings from Lab to LD are significant but not huge, and the also-ran vote is largely Tory and Ukip. I don't rate the Lib Dems' chances that highly.
I'm guessing you don't think they'll win Vauxhall either :-)
If Kate Hoey gets turfed out I'll eat my hat*
(*A tasty biscuit hat, baked lovingly with my own fair hands. But my hat, nonetheless.)
This is what being a Tottenham fan for the last quarter of a century must feel like. Hope is going into a Premier League campaign with the sixth biggest wage bill and still fancying you might win it. Hope is turning up at Wembley for an FA Cup semi-final full of optimism, even though the man who scored the last time you won one is now 56 years old, greying and presenting the BBC’s television coverage. Hope is ripping off the plaster and daring yourself not to see the scar underneath.
All true. But there is money to be made off the back of ruined dreams. I won over £1,000 on the Tottenham choke last season. I'll make a lot more this time if all my bets come in. If they don't I still win, kind of.
Burnley (13) also broke about 2:1 for Leave, but the Lib Dems are the main opposition to Labour rather than the Tories there, so that one is very hard to read. They'll certainly give it a good go, but Ukip + Con = 31% of the 2015 vote. I think the outcome there depends firstly on how badly Ukip folds, and secondly on whether or not local Tories vote tactically against Labour, or Labour Leavers vote tactically for the Tories to defeat the Lib Dems.
Bermondsey & Old Southwark (14) is a likely gain. Simon Hughes is standing again, he has a makeable majority off 4,500 to overturn, Southwark is ultra-Remain, and the sitting Labour MP, Neil Coyle, is one of the Morons.
Yeovil (15) is in Leave territory with a large bank of Ukip voters and a Lib Dem candidate who has just unexpectedly quit, so I think we can write that off.
Beyond Fife NE (16,) which I've already mentioned, swings of 5% or greater are needed and life starts to get a bit more challenging. Current Scottish data suggests Caithness (17) is beyond them. Colchester (18) has a 5,500 Tory majority and is also Leave. Cheltenham (19) is, however, probably worth a pop for reasons previously mentioned, and by the same logic some people think they might bag Cheadle (20.) After that, I think the only other reasonably decent chance is Cardiff Central (25,) a two-horse race with Labour that could swing their way if the only other large bloc of voters - the Tories, who can't realistically win the seat - deploy anti-Labour tactical voting. My choice for a long-shot punt would be Oxford West & Abingdon (36,) where the Conservatives have a 9,500 majority but the electorate is substantially pro-Remain, and the third place party is Labour not Ukip. The sitting Tory MP is a Remainer, but has been involved in some controversies.
I don't think Neil Coyle is seen as a moron at all. He has made quite an impact and is known to be very Anti - Corbyn.
Apologies, I'm using obscure slang. Capital "M" Morons = the 35 who first nominated Corbyn.
A phrase coined by John McTernan in July 2015, who clearly did understand the new leadership election process.
Mr. Pulpstar, still a bit annoyed at Fillon for not dropping out. Had three figures of green on Juppe and Bayrou (hedged, so I didn't finish behind, but still).
If he finishes fourth, the Republicans will still be more than a bit annoyed at Fillon!
Mr. Rabbit, sadly, the Richmond Park constituency is now missing from Betfair Sportsbook, where I got on at 26. I'm sure the odds will be less kind when it reappears.
Commander Shepard, I thought you had a funny look on your face
The odds for the LibDems will very likely be 8/13 as per Paddy Power's price, not least because they will be using the same computer! Likewise it's clear that Ladbrokes' and Corals' odds are now precisely in sync following their merger - shame really, it appreciably reduces the competition.
8/13 feels horribly short given the circumstances in which the LibDems hold the seat. Narrow majority on a 53% turnout, in an election where there was almost certainly significant differential turnout. It's pinning an awful lot on "remain".
Richmond Park haven't confirmed their candidate yet. Wonder if there's some lobbying going on in relation to Heathrow to manufacture Zac back in?
Hopefully not.
The Tories would be mad to allow Zac to represent them again, anywhere, at any time. He single-handedly succeeded in managing to lose them a seat with a 23,000 majority and must never be forgiven if for no other reason than pour encourager les autres.
it's better to be roughly right than precisely wrong
Richard, based on this view, you'd probably like, if you have not already read it, Probably Approximately Correct: Nature's Algorithms for Learning and Prospering in a Complex World by Leslie Valiant.
This is what being a Tottenham fan for the last quarter of a century must feel like. Hope is going into a Premier League campaign with the sixth biggest wage bill and still fancying you might win it. Hope is turning up at Wembley for an FA Cup semi-final full of optimism, even though the man who scored the last time you won one is now 56 years old, greying and presenting the BBC’s television coverage. Hope is ripping off the plaster and daring yourself not to see the scar underneath.
there is money to be made off the back of ruined dreams.
I think that's the Tories' campaign slogan isn't it?
This is what being a Tottenham fan for the last quarter of a century must feel like. Hope is going into a Premier League campaign with the sixth biggest wage bill and still fancying you might win it. Hope is turning up at Wembley for an FA Cup semi-final full of optimism, even though the man who scored the last time you won one is now 56 years old, greying and presenting the BBC’s television coverage. Hope is ripping off the plaster and daring yourself not to see the scar underneath.
All true. But there is money to be made off the back of ruined dreams. I won over £1,000 on the Tottenham choke last season. I'll make a lot more this time if all my bets come in. If they don't I still win, kind of.
Absolutely, although Liverpool are doing their usual trick of losing to midfielders again today, which won't help your bets. Good luck though!
Mr. Rabbit, sadly, the Richmond Park constituency is now missing from Betfair Sportsbook, where I got on at 26. I'm sure the odds will be less kind when it reappears.
Commander Shepard, I thought you had a funny look on your face
The odds for the LibDems will very likely be 8/13 as per Paddy Power's price, not least because they will be using the same computer! Likewise it's clear that Ladbrokes' and Corals' odds are now precisely in sync following their merger - shame really, it appreciably reduces the competition.
8/13 feels horribly short given the circumstances in which the LibDems hold the seat. Narrow majority on a 53% turnout, in an election where there was almost certainly significant differential turnout. It's pinning an awful lot on "remain".
I agree, the Tories should be capable of re-taking this seat but sadly that depends on (a) Zac not standing as an independent and (b) the blues picking a top rate candidate .... how about Paxo for example?
@Pulpstar - is that based purely on swings and Remain/Leave figures, or have you adjusted for factors such as incumbency or whether a popular retread is standing?
Purely the leave/remain mix as I expect there to be amongst the various votes. There is no attempt to put stuff in like retreads into the sheet.
But it makes sense doesn't it ?
Our easiest targets are surely against Labour (They're going backwards), then the SNP (They can surely only go backwards) rather than the Tories (They're going forward). And the Lib Dems have picked up a lot of remainers, so the easiest targets must be in more remain areas.
"Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ 27m More Replying to @GoodwinMJ Harris suggests Macron v Melenchon apparently but based on polling data/let's wait until this eve!"
If Macron looks to be well ahead according to the official exit poll, I won't bother following matters - it doesn't seem like it will matter how everything else shakes out if that is true, so it'd be dull.
Just waiting on that Welsh polling - with the Scottish stuff setting the stage for huuuge expectations for the Tories, if it shows anything less than a sizable Tory majority in Wales (seats), that'd be a let down.
@Pulpstar - is that based purely on swings and Remain/Leave figures, or have you adjusted for factors such as incumbency or whether a popular retread is standing?
Purely the leave/remain mix as I expect there to be amongst the various votes. There is no attempt to put stuff in like retreads into the sheet.
But it makes sense doesn't it ?
Our easiest targets are surely against Labour (They're going backwards), then the SNP (They can surely only go backwards) rather than the Tories (They're going forward). And the Lib Dems have picked up a lot of remainers, so the easiest targets must be in more remain areas.
Yes, absolutely. Also a factor (which I presume implicitly is taken account of in your approach) is whether there was a sizeable UKIP or Labour vote in 2015, in Conservative-held targets.
Having said that, I suspect the retread factor is worth several points, in seats like Eastbourne or Twickers.
Mr. Rabbit, sadly, the Richmond Park constituency is now missing from Betfair Sportsbook, where I got on at 26. I'm sure the odds will be less kind when it reappears.
Commander Shepard, I thought you had a funny look on your face
The odds for the LibDems will very likely be 8/13 as per Paddy Power's price, not least because they will be using the same computer! Likewise it's clear that Ladbrokes' and Corals' odds are now precisely in sync following their merger - shame really, it appreciably reduces the competition.
8/13 feels horribly short given the circumstances in which the LibDems hold the seat. Narrow majority on a 53% turnout, in an election where there was almost certainly significant differential turnout. It's pinning an awful lot on "remain".
I agree, the Tories should be capable of re-taking this seat but sadly that depends on (a) Zac not standing as an independent and (b) the blues picking a top rate candidate .... how about Paxo for example?
Zac won't stand as an independent, why would he? Twitter feed is all full of "backing Conservatives" stuff. With a bit of pro International Development budget stuff to rile people
Interesting but I'd add in Withington. No one seems to fancy them but they only lost the seat in 2015 because of their dirty deal with the Tories and as that's now forgotten and Corbyn is disliked and the previous popular MP is standing again and it's strongly Remain I think the chances are much better than the basic necessary swing suggests.
That's not impossible but, as with Hornsey & Wood Green, we're into the territory of guessing whether or not ennui with Corbyn and the EU referendum result are enough for the Lib Dems - who are still polling at half their 2010 strength nationally - to overturn vast Labour majorities in inner city seats where they might otherwise remain strong.
Labour start in that constituency with an absolute majority of all votes cast, the national swings from Lab to LD are significant but not huge, and the also-ran vote is largely Tory and Ukip. I don't rate the Lib Dems' chances that highly.
I'm guessing you don't think they'll win Vauxhall either :-)
If Kate Hoey gets turfed out I'll eat my hat*
(*A tasty biscuit hat, baked lovingly with my own fair hands. But my hat, nonetheless.)
If Macron looks to be well ahead according to the official exit poll, I won't bother following matters - it doesn't seem like it will matter how everything else shakes out if that is true, so it'd be dull.
Just waiting on that Welsh polling - with the Scottish stuff setting the stage for huuuge expectations for the Tories, if it shows anything less than a sizable Tory majority in Wales (seats), that'd be a let down.
You've got another 24 hours before that Welsh poll comes out
Interesting UKIP candidate in Glasgow: she fantasises about sex with gorillas and wants to introduce the guillotine as a method of capital punishment. Name of Gisela Allen.
If Macron looks to be well ahead according to the official exit poll, I won't bother following matters - it doesn't seem like it will matter how everything else shakes out if that is true, so it'd be dull.
Just waiting on that Welsh polling - with the Scottish stuff setting the stage for huuuge expectations for the Tories, if it shows anything less than a sizable Tory majority in Wales (seats), that'd be a let down.
You've got another 24 hours before that Welsh poll comes out
Mr. Rabbit, sadly, the Richmond Park constituency is now missing from Betfair Sportsbook, where I got on at 26. I'm sure the odds will be less kind when it reappears.
Commander Shepard, I thought you had a funny look on your face
The odds for the LibDems will very likely be 8/13 as per Paddy Power's price, not least because they will be using the same computer! Likewise it's clear that Ladbrokes' and Corals' odds are now precisely in sync following their merger - shame really, it appreciably reduces the competition.
8/13 feels horribly short given the circumstances in which the LibDems hold the seat. Narrow majority on a 53% turnout, in an election where there was almost certainly significant differential turnout. It's pinning an awful lot on "remain".
I agree, the Tories should be capable of re-taking this seat but sadly that depends on (a) Zac not standing as an independent and (b) the blues picking a top rate candidate .... how about Paxo for example?
Goldsmith almost certainly won't stand against the official Conservative. He's been on Twitter congratulating various Tories on their selection as candidates and urging people to campaign for them. He was also on excellent terms with his local party during the by-election - he really was an independent in name only, and ran his campaign with the wholehearted support of the local party and membership.
I think 8/13 is short, perhaps affected by the fact they have some 25/1 bets on their books on the Lib Dems due to an initial error, and they may want to balance their book a bit before taking further Lib Dem bets. Having said that, it's hard for the Tories there. They have to re-motivate the troops after a defeat they really didn't expect, while the local Lib Dems have their tails up.
If Macron looks to be well ahead according to the official exit poll, I won't bother following matters - it doesn't seem like it will matter how everything else shakes out if that is true, so it'd be dull.
Just waiting on that Welsh polling - with the Scottish stuff setting the stage for huuuge expectations for the Tories, if it shows anything less than a sizable Tory majority in Wales (seats), that'd be a let down.
You've got another 24 hours before that Welsh poll comes out
Comments
I thought that Mrs May's change of mind over the GE is considered evidence that she isn't averse to not telling the truth?
Good evening, everyone.
At what time, BST do the polls close and is there a universal closure time throughout France?
Edited extra bit: good evening, Miss JGP.
Spurs outside top 4 looks way better value than Arsenal above Spurs?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2017/04/22/tottenham-yet-hope-kills/
This is what being a Tottenham fan for the last quarter of a century must feel like. Hope is going into a Premier League campaign with the sixth biggest wage bill and still fancying you might win it. Hope is turning up at Wembley for an FA Cup semi-final full of optimism, even though the man who scored the last time you won one is now 56 years old, greying and presenting the BBC’s television coverage. Hope is ripping off the plaster and daring yourself not to see the scar underneath.
If I take my own thoughts and study the available data, I might be able to come up with something.
I would probably be proven spectacularly wrong by events, but at least I would've tried :-)
In 1983 and 1987 the local elections were in May and the general elections followed in June. Notably they were really NOT a good predictor of the general election a month later. Comparing the Rallings & Thrasher estimates for the local elections those years with the subsequent general elections, in the 1983 local elections the Conservatives were ahead by 3 points… they won the general election the next month by 14 points. In the 1987 local elections the Conservatives were ahead by 6 points, in the general election a month later they were ahead by 11 points. In both cases the SDP-Liberal Alliance did much better in the locals than the general a month later. In short, when the local elections happen in May and Labour aren’t 20 points behind don’t get all excited/distraught about the polls being wrong… people just vote differently in local elections. It may well give the Lib Dems a nice boost during the campaign though.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9834
I'm glad my hectoring paid off.
How does France’s system of vote estimates work?
Unlike many countries which operate exit polls asking voters how they voted, the initial vote estimate in French elections – in use and steadily perfected since 1965 – is based on an actual vote count.
Pollsters select about 200 polling stations around the country, in rural areas, small towns and urban agglomerations, carefully chosen to be as representative as possible of the country as a whole.
When the polling stations close – all are among those that close early, at 7pm – and as the votes are being counted, a polling official records, for a sizeable sample of the ballots, the number of votes for each candidate.
Those numbers are then run through a sophisticated computer program that adjusts them for past results and assorted variables, and produces a national vote estimate. This is not the official result, but nor is it an opinion poll.
It is usually very accurate, to within a percentage point of so – but this being an exceptionally close race, a percentage point may be decisive. So either we will have a reliable result at 7pm, or we won’t.
Unlike many countries which operate exit polls asking voters how they voted, the initial vote estimate in French elections – in use and steadily perfected since 1965 – is based on an actual vote count.
Pollsters select about 200 polling stations around the country, in rural areas, small towns and urban agglomerations, carefully chosen to be as representative as possible of the country as a whole.
Worth reading the whole post:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/apr/23/french-election-voting-under-way-in-first-round-live
18:31
Labour start in that constituency with an absolute majority of all votes cast, the national swings from Lab to LD are significant but not huge, and the also-ran vote is largely Tory and Ukip. I don't rate the Lib Dems' chances that highly.
I suppose that, because of the comparatively short time since the last election, there will be a higher number of former MPs and candidates standing than usual.
Con 45
Lab 26
Lib Dem 16
UKIP 7
Which to my mind looks achievable if a little high for Labour/Low for the Tories I make it:
Leeds North West
Sheffield Hallam
Westmorland & Lonsdale
Cambridge
Ceredigion
Orkney & Shetland
Bermondsey & Old Southwark
Norfolk North
Dunbartonshire East
Southport
Cardiff Central
Edinburgh West
Bristol West
Carshalton & Wallington
Burnley
Twickenham
Hornsey & Wood Green
Lewes
Fife North East
For the first 20 seats. In that order.
Anyway, if he wins, Le Pen drops out and it's Fillon into round two, overall that's quite nice.
Orkney & Shetland will be an absolute walkover (look at the Holyrood results), and if some bookmaker is fool enough to offer you 1-10 on it, take it.
NEV 1983 Con 39 Lab 36 Alliance 20
GE 1983 Con 42.4 Lab 27.6 All 25.4
I'm sure someone downthread has mentioned this but there is a RTBF (Belgian broadcaster) poll doing the rounds. It is reportedly not a rolling exit poll but an emargoed poll.
A second poll from some outfit called Datoworld has reprtedly unknown cred.
Likewise it's clear that Ladbrokes' and Corals' odds are now precisely in sync following their merger - shame really, it appreciably reduces the competition.
If Labour win the seat I shall not be pleased.
And to think I thought there would be no value in Scotland this time round.
(*A tasty biscuit hat, baked lovingly with my own fair hands. But my hat, nonetheless.)
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/who-are-the-morons-who-nominated-jeremy-corbyn-for-the-labour-leadership-contest-10406527.html
Hustings for a few of these will be interesting. "So why did you nominate Jeremy Corbyn?"
#AskingForAFriendWhoIsGoingToBeEditingAPoliticalBettingWebsiteTonight
But it makes sense doesn't it ?
Our easiest targets are surely against Labour (They're going backwards), then the SNP (They can surely only go backwards) rather than the Tories (They're going forward). And the Lib Dems have picked up a lot of remainers, so the easiest targets must be in more remain areas.
"Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ 27m
More
Replying to @GoodwinMJ
Harris suggests Macron v Melenchon apparently but based on polling data/let's wait until this eve!"
Just waiting on that Welsh polling - with the Scottish stuff setting the stage for huuuge expectations for the Tories, if it shows anything less than a sizable Tory majority in Wales (seats), that'd be a let down.
Maybe a chance to shout 'Crossover!' at around half past nine?
Having said that, I suspect the retread factor is worth several points, in seats like Eastbourne or Twickers.
http://www.glasgowlive.co.uk/news/glasgow-news/glasgow-ukip-candidate-wants-bring-12930258
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ukip-candidate-says-hormones-go-10278558
http://www.lci.fr/direct/
https://youtube.com/watch?v=1Ydto3Iyzic
Goldsmith almost certainly won't stand against the official Conservative. He's been on Twitter congratulating various Tories on their selection as candidates and urging people to campaign for them. He was also on excellent terms with his local party during the by-election - he really was an independent in name only, and ran his campaign with the wholehearted support of the local party and membership.
I think 8/13 is short, perhaps affected by the fact they have some 25/1 bets on their books on the Lib Dems due to an initial error, and they may want to balance their book a bit before taking further Lib Dem bets. Having said that, it's hard for the Tories there. They have to re-motivate the troops after a defeat they really didn't expect, while the local Lib Dems have their tails up.
316 seats.