politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Are radical policies the answer to Labour’s slump?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Are radical policies the answer to Labour’s slump?
On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Leo Barasi talked about the state of the parties and the race ahead with Conor Pope of Progress and political consultant Laurence Janta-Lipinksi. You can listen to the episode below or by clicking here.
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QTWTAIN
http://hurryupharry.org/2017/04/23/corbyn-droning/
Corbyn quote "We’re here today to say that we don’t agree with these drones. We don’t agree with this obscenity that’s going on before our very eyes here. That’s why just as much as we want to get rid of land mines, small arms, nuclear weapons, we want to get rid of drones as well."
Small arms??? wtf does he want to leave us with?????
"Jeremy always worried about civilian casualties but has no problem with IRA deliberately targeting civilians by putting bombs in litter bins. Seems he has no problem with others killing us just us killing others."
I also want a party leader who looks like a PM in waiting.
I don't want a shambolic and incoherent foreign and defence policy.
Jeremy says we cant :-(
Hornsey(3-1), Bath(7-4 & 5-4), Chippenham (25-1), Cheltenham (9-1), Bermondsey (Evens). All limited to tuppence ha'penny. I've been a buyer of lower band LD seats on the spreads.
Of course, some of the stuff that Corbyn comes out with would be electoral kryptonite, regardless of who said it. But the fact that it comes from him merely makes it even more unpopular, and reinforces his negative image with the bulk of voters.
Would regard both that and Chippenham as "brave" choices. The Lib Dems are still only a little over 10% in the polls, and the EU referendum result isn't the be all and end all in making these seat predictions. Both of those need larger swings than Oxford West & Abingdon, which would be my long-shot selection for the Lib Dems if asked.
Blair was a brilliant salesman, as was the team around him. He developed a product that appealed: on the major negative - the economy - he was initially continuity Conservative. In areas he could be more bold, he was.
Can anyone honestly say they would buy anything from Corbyn? If you went to a car showroom and was greeted with him you'd just turn around and leave. If you went to buy a house and he was showing you around you'd look in another city.
The problem is I cannot see anyone in Labour who you'd buy a pint of milk from, yet alone anything that mattered.
On current polling, chances of sneaking in some wins against the Tories would be limited, and they needed big swings in many places anyway, so you're looking at places like Cambridge against LDs and East Dunbartonshire or another Scottish seat against SNP.
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Despite using Easter to announce several policies, Labour is making little effort to pretend it knows what it would do with power. The party’s website still invites visitors to “help shape our next manifesto” and Corbyn semi-loyalist Dawn Butler suggested on Newsnight there might have to be a “rolling manifesto” while policies are developed.
Yeah, that's pretty silly. The big ideas at least should be pretty clear at all times.
Corbyn ran for the leadership with the promise of a “radical economic strategy” yet the recent announcements have largely been repeats of earlier Labour policies.
I am waiting for the first reports of far lefters criticising him for being too right wing or moderate. That's more interesting than our unceasing 'Crobyn is Crap' talk.
You could argue that Labour’s recent policies go further than previous ones. But no-one can seriously claim they would revolutionise the economy. As such, they seem designed for the same voters – progressive but not radical – that the 2015 manifesto aimed to win over.
So Labour might find support for a mix of tangible incremental policies, and radical policies aimed at tackling a well-known problem. With 49% saying they would at least consider Labour, these policies appear to win the strong support of around a quarter of the population – suggesting there is still a 25% strategy open to Labour.
Definitely. They still creep up to 25-26, and down no more than 23-24, 25 is very much on, maybe a bit more. I just don't know that policy plays much of a part. Labour have some popular ones, and others that might be popular, but the proposer is not credible. Want to. To date, they have not.
I like the comment in the podcast that the pollsters will be very happy the polls are so conclusive - even if they are wrong, the right winner will almost certainly be what the polls suggest, so no one will mind all that much at the polls being wrong.
No.
There is no way out for Labour . Labour is dying & the only choice is a fast, consensual death with some dignity or a long, humiliating & painful one.
There's only one way to find out ...
It's largely forgotten now, but the picture of Corbyn holding a sign protesting against himself at the Labour Conference really said it all for me. Oddly, there is an element of truth in his defenders' point that he isn't that left wing... a lot of it is badly rehashed and reheated Miliband policies, with a dash of unfunded and ill-thought through ideas which are more left wing but nothing really fleshed out.
I think Leo has a point that a radical programme may arrest the decline (although it couldn't win an election). If Labour can turn the debate onto whether to nationalise such-and-such, or implement a minimum income, it would take a lot of flak but it would possibly be better than the current position of allowing the Tories to dictate the terms of the debate and make it about "strong and stable" Government (a vacuous phrase and daft when you consider how much stability there was under the Coalition compared with the past two tumultuous years... but undoubtedly an effective way of framing it).
I wouldn't buy a car from May or Mophead either.
* Except possibly Bristol West, which is a three way marginal.
If you think he is a credible leader more fool you.
But is this really an issue that is at the forefront of the British electorate's concerns? Is this what you want to lead with in your campaign?
That, rather than the content, is worth a 'Dear God' in my mind.
How can Bermondsey and Bath be both roughly evens when the o/u line is near 30 ?????????????????????????
5-1 would tempt me to bet. 3-1 would not.
I also have zero sympathy for the Labour MPS who have effectively allowed this shambles in the party to moulder on for the past few years and yet have the gall now to beg for sympathy votes on the basis of a vague promise not to back JC for PM. Anyone who believes such trite nonsense deserves him as PM next June.
To me, in a phrase that compares three kinds of weapons that have international agreements (landmines, nuclear weapons and small arms), with one that does not (drones) the meaning is reasonably clear.
I'm sure the ones for people like the BNP are just as bad, but probably not as dull or convoluted. Did you know Trotskyism is just a tool of the capitalists.
From my limited knowledge, I would assume that a reduction in turnout favours Fillon and Le Pen. Don't they have the highest poll ratings in terms of the percentage of their supporters who claim to be certain to vote?
Labour ought to have their Howard by now - pushing forward, perhaps a few council gains in the May elections.
Instead Corbyn is turning the seat I'm in, which has been Labour forever into a relatively safe seat - for the Tories !
And thinking about recent elections and referendums in Britain, do you think there have been...
England : Scotland
Too Many: 34 : 66
Not Enough: 9 : 5
About Right: 39 : 19
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/856169359613493248
For those interested, Sportsbook (Betfair) has Lib Dems at 51. Greens, also reportedly standing, are 501.
Could Corbyn be thrown out by the electorate?
Labour had a very strong result there last time.
Edited extra bit: ahem, the 'interesting' tweet is this:
https://twitter.com/jimmy_wales/status/855848834454482945
Final polls of ICM and YouGov were 43-332 and 43-33 respectively.
I think the Lib Dems may make big progress this time, possibly lining up to replace Labour in the next decade) but it will be hidden because of the small number of extra MPs they get form it.
There just isn't the strength of opposition in the bulk of the deep heartland: inner city (and Welsh valleys) seats with relatively high multiple indices of deprivation, or low turnout/low electorate size, or large BAME votes, or (more often than not) all three. And requiring staggering swings, with no strong opposition party available to achieve them.
Even Baxter's latest prediction, which I posted earlier - Tory majority 170 - still leaves Labour with 161 seats, which is broadly comparable to the Tories in 1997.
Thinking about Theresa May's premiership so far, do you think
Theresa May has followed a similar course to David Cameron and this is a good thing : 8
Theresa May has followed a similar course to David Cameron and this is a bad thing: 15
Theresa May has changed direction from David Cameron's government and this is a good thing : 35
Theresa May has changed direction from David Cameron's government and this is a bad thing: 13
Macron has underperformed.
The labour manifesto might has well have every wet dream of a policy that Corbyn et al have ever had for the good it will do them.
1. Corbyn has a truly gigantic majority. If he goes, English Labour is going the way of Scottish Labour. I don't buy it.
2. Looking down the thread underneath that post, it turns out that a Green is standing as well.
3. Corbyn faces a split opposition, and the LD candidate was only 4th last time. Greens third, and Tories second.
Corbyn is completely safe.
No announced dates on when they will all be out, doubt it will be for a few weeks at least, just drips of policies.
I take it all back, May is fantastic
The Prime Minister will consider scrapping the Government’s flagship High Speed rail scheme HS2 after being lobbied by hostile MPs to ditch the £56billion project in the Conservative Party manifesto.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/795210/Prime-Mininster-theresa-May-scrapping-HS2-Tory-manifesto
But it becomes an extinction level event when Corbyn refuses to step down after defeat, or agrees to stand down only if he has some kind of say in his successor. Then you get SDP2 and both Rump Labour and SDP2 are destroyed by FPTP next time round.
To people who would say, of course Corbyn will stand down in June... what evidence have you seen that would suggest that so far?