politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two local by-elections tonight – both LAB defences

SeanT said:

Why? Seriously?

I saw it on The Trip and it looked great.

So many mega-hyped restaurants disappoint. But when they fulfil your expectations, it is amazing.

TBH it's not a style of restaurant I particularly like in general - an '18 course tasting menu' sounds and can be tedious even if the execution is good.

But the reality was different. For a start, they don't serve 18 courses in succession, they start by serving three or four dishes, rather like canapés or tapas, together, and then go on to more substantial main dishes. So the overall structure of the meal is very well thought out and balanced - it's not just the fireworks of the individual dishes, but a coherent whole.

And then - every single one of the 18 dishes was spectacular. No exceptions, and none where you thought 'Hmm, interesting, but not actually very nice to eat'. Just 18 dishes of perfection, every one intriguing but not over the top in showmanship.

Also excellent service, very professional but also quite informal and friendly.

It's not something you'd want every day, but it was, even at £437 + service, good value (that was with champagne to start with and a decent wine), in the sense that I'd rather experience that once than three meals at £150 for two in a well-regarded but more ordinary place.

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

AndyJS said:

Y0kel said:

Is there value in finding a marginal where Labour could hold on against the national swing? If its anywhere you'd assume its London constituencies surely.

Ilford North might be an example.

Very big Jewish community, which should be bad for Corbyn's Labour. Wes Streeting is very anti-Corbyn of course, but I doubt that will save him.

The percentage dropped from 10.3% to 6.5% between 2001 and 2011. The same trend would give 4.2% today.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordnorth/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/

bobajobPB said:

Floater said:

bobajobPB said:

Floater said:

bobajobPB said:

Floater said:

bobajobPB said:

Popped in for a bit of Aberlour-fuelled banter after the football to see PB's usual suspects live commentating on a terrorist attack. To the penalty shoot out in the Lyon match instead.

Lets just bury our heads in the sand then eh

Just wait a while. The live commentary is embarrassing, and very often wrong.

You think the president has it wrong?

Probably not. But I'd rather listen to him than the geniuses on here. In the past, I've seen PBers write - in all seriousness- that Jo Cox was a false flag operation by the Remain campaign. The Westminster Bridge incident saw several posters claim there was a second shooter (there wasn't). A third case had some morons getting very excited that an assailant was called something Middle Eastern sounding when he turned out to be a French Canadian called Alexandre. PB's record on this is fucking embarrassing.

Ah yes - he was still a Muslim though wasn't he (the French Canadian)

Most people on here wait - the early signs on this one were pretty clear.

No, he was a white supremacist who supports Marine Le Pen. Clear... as fucking mud.

You are embarrassing yourself - go get some sleep

augustus_carp said:

Philip_Thompson said:

augustus_carp said:

Philip_Thompson said:

augustus_carp said:

Philip_Thompson said:

augustus_carp said:

MarkSenior said:

augustus_carp said:

Pulpstar said:

The turnout for the #Blacon by-election is 25.4% The result is expected after 11.45pm: http://cwac.co/FCFKM
0 replies 4 retweets 0 likes

Ridiculous! That's only a few hundred votes- maybe a thousand, tops. Why is Local Government so inefficient? A few bank tellers (or bookies) used to handling lots of small bits of paper could do the job in a few minutes.

It is around 2,600 votes

OK, sorry! In that case I take most of it back - but I still reckon that for one by-election the Council would have more people at their disposal to get the thing processed a lot quicker than in 1Hr 45Mins.

They could but why should they?

Assuming those counting are paid to do the counting, it's generally cheaper to pay one person for four hours than four people for one hour (as people will have minimum shift lengths, its unreasonable to expect someone to work for only one hour etc)

Council By elections are a rare event for most authorities - maybe one a year? Why don't the Electoral Registration people do it as part of their job? It's a special occasion, after all, and I expect the Councillors would be interested in the outcome as well as us.

Again probably way more expensive. Local councils will have local people who can do the job. If it was outsourced like you suggest then you could see someone having to commute from their home to all over the country every Thursday. One week they'd be travelling to Cornwall, the next week to Scotland. And given that it's happening on a Thursday night there's no chance of them being back home after they've finished so they'd have to get a hotel and travel down the next day. Who'd want to do that and why?

Or you can get someone who already lives locally to work a couple of hours. Far more efficient and cheaper.

Surely the Electoral Registration people work for the local Council?

So you want local people to do the counting? Isn't that what happens already.

If you're expecting extra local people to do the job then they would deserve to be paid for the overtime.

Why? I frequently used to work unpaid overtime - it was expected of me. Why shouldn't Council Officers do the same occasionally?

Because as you've already acknowledged this is not a normal part of the job, it is something that happens only very occasionally.

bobajobPB said:

CarlottaVance said:

bobajobPB said:

CarlottaVance said:

Floater said:

bobajobPB said:

Chameleon said:

bobajobPB said:

SeanT said:

bobajobPB said:

Popped in for a bit of Aberlour-fuelled banter after the football to see PB's usual suspects live commentating on a terrorist attack. To the penalty shoot out in the Lyon match instead.

Au revoir, dickhead.

Another gem from the "you okay, hun" repertoire. Shape the fuck up.

Pot something, kettle something.

A genius writes. All for free, on PB.

Are you drunk bob?

How could we tell?

Admittedly sobriety or otherwise is hard to discern with your good self, given that all your posts are auto-generated from a Central Office script.

Go back to whining about child tax credits......

A topic I haven't mentioned for about five years. .

That's how tedious it was.......

Lib Dems Under 18.5 seats on betfair @ 4.4. Seems like a good bet to me.

In any case, I would be personally happy if they go over that so i'll be good either way.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Floater said:

CarlottaVance said:

Floater said:

bobajobPB said:

Chameleon said:

bobajobPB said:

SeanT said:

bobajobPB said:

Popped in for a bit of Aberlour-fuelled banter after the football to see PB's usual suspects live commentating on a terrorist attack. To the penalty shoot out in the Lyon match instead.

Au revoir, dickhead.

Another gem from the "you okay, hun" repertoire. Shape the fuck up.

Pot something, kettle something.

A genius writes. All for free, on PB.

Are you drunk bob?

How could we tell?

He seems a tad irritable

Bobajob can see Labour losing heavily on June 8th?

We can all see that

Floater said:

bobajobPB said:

Floater said:

bobajobPB said:

Floater said:

bobajobPB said:

Floater said:

bobajobPB said:

Popped in for a bit of Aberlour-fuelled banter after the football to see PB's usual suspects live commentating on a terrorist attack. To the penalty shoot out in the Lyon match instead.

Lets just bury our heads in the sand then eh

Just wait a while. The live commentary is embarrassing, and very often wrong.

You think the president has it wrong?

Probably not. But I'd rather listen to him than the geniuses on here. In the past, I've seen PBers write - in all seriousness- that Jo Cox was a false flag operation by the Remain campaign. The Westminster Bridge incident saw several posters claim there was a second shooter (there wasn't). A third case had some morons getting very excited that an assailant was called something Middle Eastern sounding when he turned out to be a French Canadian called Alexandre. PB's record on this is fucking embarrassing.

Ah yes - he was still a Muslim though wasn't he (the French Canadian)

Most people on here wait - the early signs on this one were pretty clear.

No, he was a white supremacist who supports Marine Le Pen. Clear... as fucking mud.

You are embarrassing yourself - go get some sleep

www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/38805163

French 2012 election
Mélenchon, Hollande, Bayrou, Sarkozy, Le Pen

Averages in the last five polls before the first round:
13.5% --- 28.3% --- 10.3% --- 26.1% --- 15.8%
Actual scores:
11.1% --- 28.6% --- 9.1% --- 27.2% --- 17.90%

Summary:
far right UP 2%,
far left DOWN 2%,
left NO CHANGE
"centrist" DOWN 1%
sitting LR (UMP to be exact) president UP 1%

There's no equivalent now to a sitting LR president, but the general picture is this:

rightwingers UP, especially the far right
far left DOWN
centrists DOWN A BIT
So the picture was one of a shy right and even shyer far right.

Using this as a basis for predicting R1 scores in 2017, we get this:

•Le Pen will come first
•Fillon may manage to beat Macron and make it to second place.

R2 in 2012:
Averages in the last five polls before the first round:
Sarkozy 44.2% --- Hollande 55.8%
Actual scores:
Sarkozy 48.4% --- Hollande 51.2%

Summary:
right wing UP 4%
left wing DOWN 4%
So again, a "shy right" picture.

Average in most recent five polls in 2017 for a Le Pen-Fillon runoff:

Le Pen 42.2%
Fillon 57.8%

From this base, Le Pen would need a huge swing of 8%. If she does fight Fillon, will she get it? It will be very interesting to watch the polls that are published tomorrow, the last day before R1 that polls are allowed to be published.

Richard_Nabavi said:

It's not something you'd want every day, but it was, even at £437 + service, good value (that was with champagne to start with and a decent wine), in the sense that I'd rather experience that once than three meals at £150 for two in a well-regarded but more ordinary place.

This is the thing about top-end gastronomy - it's amazingly cheap in relative terms.

Trump on Paris attack
"Our condolences from our country to the people of France," he said. "It looks like another terrorist attack and... what can you say? It just never ends."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39662219

Floater said:

Especially for slightly pickled Bob

The Champs Elysee attacker, like the majority of France’s terrorists, was believed to be “known to police”.

The man has not been officially identified.

But, the fact he was familiar to authorities, will raise yet more questions about how able Europe’s police forces are to cope with the large number of potential attackers.

It takes at least 20 police to follow one person around the clock: the simple fact is that police have to chose who to follow. And sometimes they make the wrong decision.

All three of the terrorists in the January 2015 Charlie Hebdo attacks – Cherif and Said Kouachi, and Amedy Coulibaly – were known to police.

What's your point? Go back to the French Canadian thread and you will see for yourself. Edit: I see Sunil has made the point for me.

Good night!

Sunil_Prasannan said:

bobajobPB said:

Floater said:

bobajobPB said:

Floater said:

bobajobPB said:

Floater said:

bobajobPB said:

Popped in for a bit of Aberlour-fuelled banter after the football to see PB's usual suspects live commentating on a terrorist attack. To the penalty shoot out in the Lyon match instead.

Lets just bury our heads in the sand then eh

Just wait a while. The live commentary is embarrassing, and very often wrong.

You think the president has it wrong?

Probably not. But I'd rather listen to him than the geniuses on here. In the past, I've seen PBers write - in all seriousness- that Jo Cox was a false flag operation by the Remain campaign. The Westminster Bridge incident saw several posters claim there was a second shooter (there wasn't). A third case had some morons getting very excited that an assailant was called something Middle Eastern sounding when he turned out to be a French Canadian called Alexandre. PB's record on this is fucking embarrassing.

Ah yes - he was still a Muslim though wasn't he (the French Canadian)

Most people on here wait - the early signs on this one were pretty clear.

No, he was a white supremacist who supports Marine Le Pen. Clear... as fucking mud.

OMG I agree with Bobajob

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_City_mosque_shooting

And I think I was thinking of another attack, my apologies

SeanT said:

Fair play. Colour me convinced.

I'm gonna pitch a "Luxurious Lakes" idea to the Sunday Times.

Ta!

The only caveat is that I wasn't very impressed by their suggested wine pairings by the glass. Very expensive, not particularly classy wines, too many (you really don't want to keep switching wine every few minutes) and too much quantity. So we went for a bottle of a very good white Chateauneuf-du-Pape instead, which stood up to pretty much everything. Well, other than the deserts, natch, but they have sweeties by the glass..

AndyJS said:

SeanT said:

AndyJS said:

Dawn Butler's interview on the PM programme on Radio 4 is at 9 mins:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08m8z3b

It's well worth a listen. Probably the most cringeworthy political interview of the year.

It's so bad I feel sorry for her. She's clearly out of her depth.

I tried listening, honest, guv. But about 2 minutes was all I could stand.

He sounds like a winner

The 39-year old gunman was known by intelligence services for radicalisation and had previously targeted police 16 years ago in a car chase, when he opened fire on officers, according to reports.

During questioning in a police station, he managed to get hold of a police weapon and fire five times. The policeman survived, but the man was sentence to several years in prison for the attack.

The gunman, who has a previous murder conviction, had recently been detained for questioning in a police station in Meaux, outside Paris, after "informants" had indicated that he was "seeking to obtain weapons to kill policemen", according to reports.

But due to a lack of evidence, anti-terror prosecutors "let him go".

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

Trump on Paris attack
"Our condolences from our country to the people of France," he said. "It looks like another terrorist attack and... what can you say? It just never ends."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39662219

Trump - for all his many odious and egregious faults - has the knack of nailing a mood, once in a while, and expressing it in exactly the right way:

"What can you say? It just never ends"

Is pretty much perfect.

Agreed. Obama actually came close to saying something like that with the last mass shooting he had to comment on - depressed and defeated, but honest. Obviously you hope for solutions from your leaders, but in their absence you take what you can I guess.

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Paristonda said:

HYUFD said:

Meanwhile Macron was in conversation with Obama today on defending their 'progressive values'
https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/855129811144118274

Smart for him to do so, makes him look like a President in waiting. Obama remains very popular in France and even more so when compared to Trump. Obama obviously didn't make any back of the queue comments to the French so hasn't dented his reputation there either.

It will certainly go down well in most of France and especially in Paris but I think the more depressed industrial areas of France are as unenthused by 'progressive politics' as the rustbelt was in the US and that will be the base for Le Pen's vote in the runoff

Macron will be quite content for it to be him v Le Pen in the runoff. He'd be a locked-on certainty by that point.

The biggest risk for Macron is that his vote doesn't turnout and he gets pipped out of a Fillon v Le Pen runoff.

Probably, though if Macron does get through polls now suggest Le Pen will run him closer than Fillon would

My French other half has gone to bed in a huff , switching to Le Pen from Macron.
The waltzing of the terrorists across the open border from Belgium has gone down very badly.
No doubt she'll be back to Macron after breakfast

In 2003 he was sentenced to 20 years inside a high security prison following the attacks in Roissy-en-Brie, also in Seine-et-Marne.

But he was let out early following an appeal ruling.

Tony said:

HYUFD said:

Unlikely pairing of Chuka Umunna and Ann Widdecombe together on the This Week sofa tonight

Gina Miller , could there possibly be a worse cheerleader for remainaics?

She is clearly angling for that role, Suzanne Evans now on for leavers

Philip_Thompson said:

Floater said:

He sounds like a winner

The 39-year old gunman was known by intelligence services for radicalisation and had previously targeted police 16 years ago in a car chase, when he opened fire on officers, according to reports.

During questioning in a police station, he managed to get hold of a police weapon and fire five times. The policeman survived, but the man was sentence to several years in prison for the attack.

The gunman, who has a previous murder conviction, had recently been detained for questioning in a police station in Meaux, outside Paris, after "informants" had indicated that he was "seeking to obtain weapons to kill policemen", according to reports.

But due to a lack of evidence, anti-terror prosecutors "let him go".

Do you have a source for this? Utterly unbelievable, should have been locked up still for his murder conviction.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4430542/Paris-killer-talked-wanting-kill-Telegram.html

Conservative to win Brentford at 4/7 looks better value than 2/9 to win Ealing Acton.

isam said:

another_richard said:

So betfair have the LibDems at 28.5 o/u seats but 7/4 to win Bath ?

Are they expecting 15 LibDem gains from Labour ?

They bet Burnley 8/13, Lib dem 5/4 labour

Burnley voted 67% for Brexit. Labour should be favourites surely..

kle4 said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

Trump on Paris attack
"Our condolences from our country to the people of France," he said. "It looks like another terrorist attack and... what can you say? It just never ends."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39662219

Trump - for all his many odious and egregious faults - has the knack of nailing a mood, once in a while, and expressing it in exactly the right way:

"What can you say? It just never ends"

Is pretty much perfect.

Agreed. Obama actually came close to saying something like that with the last mass shooting he had to comment on - depressed and defeated, but honest. Obviously you hope for solutions from your leaders, but in their absence you take what you can I guess.

Honesty makes up for a lot

another_richard said:

isam said:

another_richard said:

So betfair have the LibDems at 28.5 o/u seats but 7/4 to win Bath ?

Are they expecting 15 LibDem gains from Labour ?

They bet Burnley 8/13, Lib dem 5/4 labour

I prefer Bath for the LibDems.

Yes. The Lib Dems have been over-backed in several seats but 7-4 in Bath is too generous.

Small UKIP vote (6%), relatively big Labour and Green votes (13% and 12%). Environmentalist ex-Green running for Lib Dems. Clear Remain majority in June. Tory MP has been in news for the wrong reasons. If the Lib Dems get 20 seats, I can't see why Bath wouldn't be one.

Surreal on TW just now - Chuka as nonplussed as the rest of them!

Pong said:

Y0kel said:

Is there value in finding a marginal where Labour could hold on against the national swing? If its anywhere you'd assume its London constituencies surely.

Lab Bristol West @ 2.87 on BF sportsbook looks good.

It's a 3-way left wing fight with the tory/UKIP vote too low to matter.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bristol_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

Corbyn is very appealing to lots of 2015 greens. The Lucas lot (or even, conceivably, LD's) may take it - but with national polling as it is - Lab are surely still favs.

Lab should probably be >50% (odds-on) IMO.

That would have been my pick until Labour started banging on about £70k being Richy McRich Face....there are a hell of a lot of folk there that earn that kind of money or are kids at uni from families who do.

Labour 3/1 to hold Enfield North might be good value.

This is a constituency which has had big demographic changes.

On the current boundaries it would have been won by the Conservatives in 2001 but was Labour in 2015.

Tissue_Price said:

Pong said:

Y0kel said:

Is there value in finding a marginal where Labour could hold on against the national swing? If its anywhere you'd assume its London constituencies surely.

Lab Bristol West @ 2.87 on BF sportsbook looks good.

It's a 3-way left wing fight with the tory/UKIP vote too low to matter.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bristol_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

Corbyn is very appealing to lots of 2015 greens. The Lucas lot (or even, conceivably, LD's) may take it - but with national polling as it is - Lab are surely still favs.

Lab should probably be >50% (odds-on) IMO.

I wonder whether the LDs might stand aside here.

Why ?

Its a former seat, they have councillors and many of their voters would vote Conservative instead.

Tissue_Price said:

Pong said:

Y0kel said:

Is there value in finding a marginal where Labour could hold on against the national swing? If its anywhere you'd assume its London constituencies surely.

Lab Bristol West @ 2.87 on BF sportsbook looks good.

It's a 3-way left wing fight with the tory/UKIP vote too low to matter.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bristol_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

Corbyn is very appealing to lots of 2015 greens. The Lucas lot (or even, conceivably, LD's) may take it - but with national polling as it is - Lab are surely still favs.

Lab should probably be >50% (odds-on) IMO.

I wonder whether the LDs might stand aside here.

Not in a seat they held two years ago. And the relations with the Greens locally are too icy. This isn't a value judgment... just saying it won't happen.

(Cue it happening).

MTimT said:

Dadge said:

Surreal on TW just now - Chuka as nonplussed as the rest of them!

Damn, I've been in the States too long. Automatically read nonplussed in the US sense (unimpressed), rather than the British one, rendering your comment nonplussing (UK sense).

Is there a way for you to watch British TV over there?

stjohn said:

SeanT said:

HYUFD said:

Trump on Paris attack
"Our condolences from our country to the people of France," he said. "It looks like another terrorist attack and... what can you say? It just never ends."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39662219

Trump - for all his many odious and egregious faults - has the knack of nailing a mood, once in a while, and expressing it in exactly the right way:

"What can you say? It just never ends"

Is pretty much perfect.

Egregious is a great and interesting word. It's etymology, as you probably know, is e-grex. "Standing out from the flock".

Initially this was meant positively, as in just "outstanding". Now it has come to mean "outstandingly bad".

So, egregious, "standing out from the flock", now describes the errant or black sheep of the flock.

Just noted the evolution of the meaning of nonplussed in the US away from the UK meaning.

MTimT said:

Dadge said:

Surreal on TW just now - Chuka as nonplussed as the rest of them!

Damn, I've been in the States too long. Automatically read nonplussed in the US sense (unimpressed), rather than the British one, rendering your comment nonplussing (UK sense).

There's only one meaning - perplexed, bewildered:

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/nonplus

Many posters below.

So there are a handful of possible Labour hold outs against the predicted national swing to the Conservatives.

Just picking the right ones...

Labour to win Blackburn at 1/6 should be safe and profitable - 29% ahead in 2015 and with favourable demographics.

GIN1138 said:

Just catching up with This Week on I-Player.

Gina Miller threatening legal action again... Is she a "double agent" for LEAVE?

Seriosuly?? What's she suing about this time?

Plans to house up to 28 of the most dangerous extremist inmates in England and Wales in three “separation centres” away from mainstream prisoners are to go ahead, the Ministry of Justice has announced.

The first of the three separation centres – known as “jihadi jails” – will be opened in HMP Frankland high-security prison in the coming weeks with two others to follow.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/apr/21/extremist-inmates-to-be-held-in-separation-centres-inside-prisons

Betfair does seem a bit generous at the moment - Tory 1/7 overall majority - is any savings account offering that for 50 days? I suppose some unexpected event might intervene but it'd have to be pretty cataclysmic.

Express/Mirror running story of possibly two Tory MPs defecting to the Lib Dems.....

Oh giddy-ay....

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3377212/adam-johnson-caught-bragging-to-prison-inmates-about-schoolgirl-he-sexually-abused-in-shocking-secret-video/

CarlottaVance said:

Express/Mirror running story of possibly two Tory MPs defecting to the Lib Dems.....

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/two-pro-remain-tories-talking-10265497

From a LD source. Ton of salt on standby.

Completely unrelated to anything on this thread.

The apparent departure of GOP Congressman Jason Chaffetz. Says he is not running again with no understandable reason, now rumoured to be on the verge of resigning, rumours that foreign agencies are involved, rumours the authorities are investigating him.

All very odd but in the atmosphere over there at the moment, all very curious.

Y0kel said:

AndyJS said:

CarlottaVance said:

Express/Mirror running story of possibly two Tory MPs defecting to the Lib Dems.....

Any guesses? Anna Soubry maybe.

Said yesterday that it was viable to see a move, Conservative to Lib Dem. Somehow though you can see the response line, about flushing out the Euro-wets.

.

We have heard what Kim Jong May has done to Reckless and Carswell....I don't fancy trying to defect and it being taken lightly.

Probably have to watch out for a stiletto (of the shoe variety) in the back.

Easter Day saw a 4 part series on Smithsonian called "The Real Jesus of Nazareth" hosted by Robert Powell.

All I remember about him is he starred in the Zeffirelli Jesus thing and married Babs of Pan's People.

He looks a bit older.

Tim_B said:

Easter Day saw a 4 part series on Smithsonian called "The Real Jesus of Nazareth" hosted by Robert Powell.

All I remember about him is he starred in the Zeffirelli Jesus thing and married Babs of Pan's People.

He looks a bit older.

He was with Jasper Carrott in The Detectives - my classmate's dad did the theme music to that!

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Tim_B said:

Easter Day saw a 4 part series on Smithsonian called "The Real Jesus of Nazareth" hosted by Robert Powell.

All I remember about him is he starred in the Zeffirelli Jesus thing and married Babs of Pan's People.

He looks a bit older.

He was with Jasper Carrott in The Detectives - my classmate's dad did the theme music to that!

The Detectives was great.

Y0kel said:

Completely unrelated to anything on this thread.

The apparent departure of GOP Congressman Jason Chaffetz. Says he is not running again with no understandable reason, now rumoured to be on the verge of resigning, rumours that foreign agencies are involved, rumours the authorities are investigating him.

All very odd but in the atmosphere over there at the moment, all very curious.

https://mobile.twitter.com/search?src=typd&q=Chaffetz affair

Y0kel said:

AndyJS said:

CarlottaVance said:

Express/Mirror running story of possibly two Tory MPs defecting to the Lib Dems.....

Any guesses? Anna Soubry maybe.

Said yesterday that it was viable to see a move, Conservative to Lib Dem. Somehow though you can see the response line, about flushing out the Euro-wets.

.

Big scoop for the Express/Mirror if these Tory to Libdem MP defections happen, and especially when its very rare for defections to be so clearly briefed to give key media a scoop. Usually parties manage to keep them as underwraps as Theresa May did this snap GE until the planned announcement.

FrancisUrquhart said:

God the former advisor to Ed miliband on sky is really annoying loudmouth, talking over the presenter and oakenshott.

Botting wearing Tory Blue

FrancisUrquhart said:

Not sure sky news are wise running a piece talking about the fact chief constable s have quietly told them that smaller cities in the UK couldn't cope with a maurading terrorist attack.

I was watching Sky News coverage and also following Adam Boulton on twitter speculating as to the reason why Theresa May was going to make an unscheduled announcement outside No10 Downing Street on Tuesday. Adam Boulton actually read out the critical email he had immediately received from Fiona Hill (Joint Chief of Staff to Theresa May) on the back of one particlar area of speculation on air when he got it. She had a point if he had no verification for making that assertion, especially when you consider the magnitude of the announcement she then made instead.