So many mega-hyped restaurants disappoint. But when they fulfil your expectations, it is amazing.
TBH it's not a style of restaurant I particularly like in general - an '18 course tasting menu' sounds and can be tedious even if the execution is good.
But the reality was different. For a start, they don't serve 18 courses in succession, they start by serving three or four dishes, rather like canapés or tapas, together, and then go on to more substantial main dishes. So the overall structure of the meal is very well thought out and balanced - it's not just the fireworks of the individual dishes, but a coherent whole.
And then - every single one of the 18 dishes was spectacular. No exceptions, and none where you thought 'Hmm, interesting, but not actually very nice to eat'. Just 18 dishes of perfection, every one intriguing but not over the top in showmanship.
Also excellent service, very professional but also quite informal and friendly.
It's not something you'd want every day, but it was, even at £437 + service, good value (that was with champagne to start with and a decent wine), in the sense that I'd rather experience that once than three meals at £150 for two in a well-regarded but more ordinary place.
Popped in for a bit of Aberlour-fuelled banter after the football to see PB's usual suspects live commentating on a terrorist attack. To the penalty shoot out in the Lyon match instead.
Au revoir, dickhead.
Another gem from the "you okay, hun" repertoire. Shape the fuck up.
Pot something, kettle something.
A genius writes. All for free, on PB.
Are you drunk bob?
How could we tell?
He seems a tad irritable
Bobajob can see Labour losing heavily on June 8th?
Is there value in finding a marginal where Labour could hold on against the national swing? If its anywhere you'd assume its London constituencies surely.
Ilford North might be an example.
Very big Jewish community, which should be bad for Corbyn's Labour. Wes Streeting is very anti-Corbyn of course, but I doubt that will save him.
The percentage dropped from 10.3% to 6.5% between 2001 and 2011. The same trend would give 4.2% today.
Popped in for a bit of Aberlour-fuelled banter after the football to see PB's usual suspects live commentating on a terrorist attack. To the penalty shoot out in the Lyon match instead.
Lets just bury our heads in the sand then eh
Just wait a while. The live commentary is embarrassing, and very often wrong.
You think the president has it wrong?
Probably not. But I'd rather listen to him than the geniuses on here. In the past, I've seen PBers write - in all seriousness- that Jo Cox was a false flag operation by the Remain campaign. The Westminster Bridge incident saw several posters claim there was a second shooter (there wasn't). A third case had some morons getting very excited that an assailant was called something Middle Eastern sounding when he turned out to be a French Canadian called Alexandre. PB's record on this is fucking embarrassing.
Ah yes - he was still a Muslim though wasn't he (the French Canadian)
Most people on here wait - the early signs on this one were pretty clear.
No, he was a white supremacist who supports Marine Le Pen. Clear... as fucking mud.
Ashfield at 7-2 looks worth a small punt, especially as Bassetlaw is at a rather more unappealing 5-4.
As it happens, I was just paging through the odds, and the three seats I noted as possible goodies that I haven't yet bet on were Ashfield, Bassetlaw and B'rum Selly Oak.
Bassetlaw is a bet on whether John Mann's personal vote holds.
The turnout for the #Blacon by-election is 25.4% The result is expected after 11.45pm: http://cwac.co/FCFKM 0 replies 4 retweets 0 likes
Ridiculous! That's only a few hundred votes- maybe a thousand, tops. Why is Local Government so inefficient? A few bank tellers (or bookies) used to handling lots of small bits of paper could do the job in a few minutes.
It is around 2,600 votes
OK, sorry! In that case I take most of it back - but I still reckon that for one by-election the Council would have more people at their disposal to get the thing processed a lot quicker than in 1Hr 45Mins.
They could but why should they?
Assuming those counting are paid to do the counting, it's generally cheaper to pay one person for four hours than four people for one hour (as people will have minimum shift lengths, its unreasonable to expect someone to work for only one hour etc)
Council By elections are a rare event for most authorities - maybe one a year? Why don't the Electoral Registration people do it as part of their job? It's a special occasion, after all, and I expect the Councillors would be interested in the outcome as well as us.
Again probably way more expensive. Local councils will have local people who can do the job. If it was outsourced like you suggest then you could see someone having to commute from their home to all over the country every Thursday. One week they'd be travelling to Cornwall, the next week to Scotland. And given that it's happening on a Thursday night there's no chance of them being back home after they've finished so they'd have to get a hotel and travel down the next day. Who'd want to do that and why?
Or you can get someone who already lives locally to work a couple of hours. Far more efficient and cheaper.
Surely the Electoral Registration people work for the local Council?
So you want local people to do the counting? Isn't that what happens already.
If you're expecting extra local people to do the job then they would deserve to be paid for the overtime.
Why? I frequently used to work unpaid overtime - it was expected of me. Why shouldn't Council Officers do the same occasionally?
Because as you've already acknowledged this is not a normal part of the job, it is something that happens only very occasionally.
Is there value in finding a marginal where Labour could hold on against the national swing? If its anywhere you'd assume its London constituencies surely.
Daggers obvs!
4/6 seems incredible, but shrewder bettors than me don't like it
5/6 now!!
51 councillors out of 51, never been anything but Labour, Tories 3rd last time...
Popped in for a bit of Aberlour-fuelled banter after the football to see PB's usual suspects live commentating on a terrorist attack. To the penalty shoot out in the Lyon match instead.
Au revoir, dickhead.
Another gem from the "you okay, hun" repertoire. Shape the fuck up.
Pot something, kettle something.
A genius writes. All for free, on PB.
Are you drunk bob?
How could we tell?
Admittedly sobriety or otherwise is hard to discern with your good self, given that all your posts are auto-generated from a Central Office script.
Go back to whining about child tax credits......
A topic I haven't mentioned for about five years. .
Popped in for a bit of Aberlour-fuelled banter after the football to see PB's usual suspects live commentating on a terrorist attack. To the penalty shoot out in the Lyon match instead.
Au revoir, dickhead.
Another gem from the "you okay, hun" repertoire. Shape the fuck up.
Pot something, kettle something.
A genius writes. All for free, on PB.
Are you drunk bob?
How could we tell?
Admittedly sobriety or otherwise is hard to discern with your good self, given that all your posts are auto-generated from a Central Office script.
Go back to whining about child tax credits......
A topic I haven't mentioned for about five years. The Central Office IT data systems are clearly in desperate need of an upgrade.
Which screen name was that posted under?
Bobajob - although I wouldn't expect everyone to grasp that bobajobPB is the same bloke
Popped in for a bit of Aberlour-fuelled banter after the football to see PB's usual suspects live commentating on a terrorist attack. To the penalty shoot out in the Lyon match instead.
Au revoir, dickhead.
Another gem from the "you okay, hun" repertoire. Shape the fuck up.
Pot something, kettle something.
A genius writes. All for free, on PB.
Are you drunk bob?
How could we tell?
Admittedly sobriety or otherwise is hard to discern with your good self, given that all your posts are auto-generated from a Central Office script.
Go back to whining about child tax credits......
A topic I haven't mentioned for about five years. The Central Office IT data systems are clearly in desperate need of an upgrade.
Which screen name was that posted under?
Bobajob - although I wouldn't expect everyone to grasp that bobajobPB is the same bloke
Given you have had more screen names than Corbyn has had car crash interviews it is always just worth checking.
Popped in for a bit of Aberlour-fuelled banter after the football to see PB's usual suspects live commentating on a terrorist attack. To the penalty shoot out in the Lyon match instead.
Au revoir, dickhead.
Another gem from the "you okay, hun" repertoire. Shape the fuck up.
Pot something, kettle something.
A genius writes. All for free, on PB.
Are you drunk bob?
How could we tell?
He seems a tad irritable
Bobajob can see Labour losing heavily on June 8th?
Popped in for a bit of Aberlour-fuelled banter after the football to see PB's usual suspects live commentating on a terrorist attack. To the penalty shoot out in the Lyon match instead.
Lets just bury our heads in the sand then eh
Just wait a while. The live commentary is embarrassing, and very often wrong.
You think the president has it wrong?
Probably not. But I'd rather listen to him than the geniuses on here. In the past, I've seen PBers write - in all seriousness- that Jo Cox was a false flag operation by the Remain campaign. The Westminster Bridge incident saw several posters claim there was a second shooter (there wasn't). A third case had some morons getting very excited that an assailant was called something Middle Eastern sounding when he turned out to be a French Canadian called Alexandre. PB's record on this is fucking embarrassing.
Ah yes - he was still a Muslim though wasn't he (the French Canadian)
Most people on here wait - the early signs on this one were pretty clear.
No, he was a white supremacist who supports Marine Le Pen. Clear... as fucking mud.
Popped in for a bit of Aberlour-fuelled banter after the football to see PB's usual suspects live commentating on a terrorist attack. To the penalty shoot out in the Lyon match instead.
Lets just bury our heads in the sand then eh
Just wait a while. The live commentary is embarrassing, and very often wrong.
You think the president has it wrong?
Probably not. But I'd rather listen to him than the geniuses on here. In the past, I've seen PBers write - in all seriousness- that Jo Cox was a false flag operation by the Remain campaign. The Westminster Bridge incident saw several posters claim there was a second shooter (there wasn't). A third case had some morons getting very excited that an assailant was called something Middle Eastern sounding when he turned out to be a French Canadian called Alexandre. PB's record on this is fucking embarrassing.
Ah yes - he was still a Muslim though wasn't he (the French Canadian)
Most people on here wait - the early signs on this one were pretty clear.
No, he was a white supremacist who supports Marine Le Pen. Clear... as fucking mud.
The Champs Elysee attacker, like the majority of France’s terrorists, was believed to be “known to police”.
The man has not been officially identified.
But, the fact he was familiar to authorities, will raise yet more questions about how able Europe’s police forces are to cope with the large number of potential attackers.
It takes at least 20 police to follow one person around the clock: the simple fact is that police have to chose who to follow. And sometimes they make the wrong decision.
All three of the terrorists in the January 2015 Charlie Hebdo attacks – Cherif and Said Kouachi, and Amedy Coulibaly – were known to police.
French 2012 election Mélenchon, Hollande, Bayrou, Sarkozy, Le Pen
Averages in the last five polls before the first round: 13.5% --- 28.3% --- 10.3% --- 26.1% --- 15.8% Actual scores: 11.1% --- 28.6% --- 9.1% --- 27.2% --- 17.90%
Summary: far right UP 2%, far left DOWN 2%, left NO CHANGE "centrist" DOWN 1% sitting LR (UMP to be exact) president UP 1%
There's no equivalent now to a sitting LR president, but the general picture is this:
rightwingers UP, especially the far right far left DOWN centrists DOWN A BIT So the picture was one of a shy right and even shyer far right.
Using this as a basis for predicting R1 scores in 2017, we get this:
•Le Pen will come first •Fillon may manage to beat Macron and make it to second place.
R2 in 2012: Averages in the last five polls before the first round: Sarkozy 44.2% --- Hollande 55.8% Actual scores: Sarkozy 48.4% --- Hollande 51.2%
Summary: right wing UP 4% left wing DOWN 4% So again, a "shy right" picture.
Average in most recent five polls in 2017 for a Le Pen-Fillon runoff:
Le Pen 42.2% Fillon 57.8%
From this base, Le Pen would need a huge swing of 8%. If she does fight Fillon, will she get it? It will be very interesting to watch the polls that are published tomorrow, the last day before R1 that polls are allowed to be published.
Is there value in finding a marginal where Labour could hold on against the national swing? If its anywhere you'd assume its London constituencies surely.
It's not something you'd want every day, but it was, even at £437 + service, good value (that was with champagne to start with and a decent wine), in the sense that I'd rather experience that once than three meals at £150 for two in a well-regarded but more ordinary place.
This is the thing about top-end gastronomy - it's amazingly cheap in relative terms.
Trump on Paris attack "Our condolences from our country to the people of France," he said. "It looks like another terrorist attack and... what can you say? It just never ends." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39662219
The Champs Elysee attacker, like the majority of France’s terrorists, was believed to be “known to police”.
The man has not been officially identified.
But, the fact he was familiar to authorities, will raise yet more questions about how able Europe’s police forces are to cope with the large number of potential attackers.
It takes at least 20 police to follow one person around the clock: the simple fact is that police have to chose who to follow. And sometimes they make the wrong decision.
All three of the terrorists in the January 2015 Charlie Hebdo attacks – Cherif and Said Kouachi, and Amedy Coulibaly – were known to police.
What's your point? Go back to the French Canadian thread and you will see for yourself. Edit: I see Sunil has made the point for me.
Popped in for a bit of Aberlour-fuelled banter after the football to see PB's usual suspects live commentating on a terrorist attack. To the penalty shoot out in the Lyon match instead.
Lets just bury our heads in the sand then eh
Just wait a while. The live commentary is embarrassing, and very often wrong.
You think the president has it wrong?
Probably not. But I'd rather listen to him than the geniuses on here. In the past, I've seen PBers write - in all seriousness- that Jo Cox was a false flag operation by the Remain campaign. The Westminster Bridge incident saw several posters claim there was a second shooter (there wasn't). A third case had some morons getting very excited that an assailant was called something Middle Eastern sounding when he turned out to be a French Canadian called Alexandre. PB's record on this is fucking embarrassing.
Ah yes - he was still a Muslim though wasn't he (the French Canadian)
Most people on here wait - the early signs on this one were pretty clear.
No, he was a white supremacist who supports Marine Le Pen. Clear... as fucking mud.
I'm gonna pitch a "Luxurious Lakes" idea to the Sunday Times.
Ta!
The only caveat is that I wasn't very impressed by their suggested wine pairings by the glass. Very expensive, not particularly classy wines, too many (you really don't want to keep switching wine every few minutes) and too much quantity. So we went for a bottle of a very good white Chateauneuf-du-Pape instead, which stood up to pretty much everything. Well, other than the deserts, natch, but they have sweeties by the glass..
French 2012 election Mélenchon, Hollande, Bayrou, Sarkozy, Le Pen
Averages in the last five polls before the first round: 13.5% --- 28.3% --- 10.3% --- 26.1% --- 15.8% Actual scores: 11.1% --- 28.6% --- 9.1% --- 27.2% --- 17.90%
Summary: far right UP 2%, far left DOWN 2%, left NO CHANGE "centrist" DOWN 1% sitting LR (UMP to be exact) president UP 1%
There's no equivalent now to a sitting LR president, but the general picture is this:
rightwingers UP, especially the far right far left DOWN centrists DOWN A BIT So the picture was one of a shy right and even shyer far right.
Using this as a basis for predicting R1 scores in 2017, we get this:
•Le Pen will come first •Fillon may manage to beat Macron and make it to second place.
R2 in 2012: Averages in the last five polls before the first round: Sarkozy 44.2% --- Hollande 55.8% Actual scores: Sarkozy 48.4% --- Hollande 51.2%
right wing UP 4% left wing DOWN 4% So again, a "shy right" picture.
Average in most recent five polls in 2017 for a Le Pen-Fillon runoff:
Le Pen 42.2% Fillon 57.8%
From this base, Le Pen would need a huge swing of 8%. If she does fight Fillon, will she get it? It will be very interesting to watch the polls that are published tomorrow, the last day before R1 that polls are allowed to be published.
Fascinating, thank you.
Where i have no dog in the race and a poor chance of judging who would be best, like foreign elections, I generally hope for the closest possible contest. Go Le Pen and Filion.
The 39-year old gunman was known by intelligence services for radicalisation and had previously targeted police 16 years ago in a car chase, when he opened fire on officers, according to reports.
During questioning in a police station, he managed to get hold of a police weapon and fire five times. The policeman survived, but the man was sentence to several years in prison for the attack.
The gunman, who has a previous murder conviction, had recently been detained for questioning in a police station in Meaux, outside Paris, after "informants" had indicated that he was "seeking to obtain weapons to kill policemen", according to reports.
But due to a lack of evidence, anti-terror prosecutors "let him go".
Trump on Paris attack "Our condolences from our country to the people of France," he said. "It looks like another terrorist attack and... what can you say? It just never ends." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39662219
Trump - for all his many odious and egregious faults - has the knack of nailing a mood, once in a while, and expressing it in exactly the right way:
"What can you say? It just never ends"
Is pretty much perfect.
Agreed. Obama actually came close to saying something like that with the last mass shooting he had to comment on - depressed and defeated, but honest. Obviously you hope for solutions from your leaders, but in their absence you take what you can I guess.
The 39-year old gunman was known by intelligence services for radicalisation and had previously targeted police 16 years ago in a car chase, when he opened fire on officers, according to reports.
During questioning in a police station, he managed to get hold of a police weapon and fire five times. The policeman survived, but the man was sentence to several years in prison for the attack.
The gunman, who has a previous murder conviction, had recently been detained for questioning in a police station in Meaux, outside Paris, after "informants" had indicated that he was "seeking to obtain weapons to kill policemen", according to reports.
But due to a lack of evidence, anti-terror prosecutors "let him go".
I wonder when he got out of prison from the offenses 16 years ago?
Smart for him to do so, makes him look like a President in waiting. Obama remains very popular in France and even more so when compared to Trump. Obama obviously didn't make any back of the queue comments to the French so hasn't dented his reputation there either.
It will certainly go down well in most of France and especially in Paris but I think the more depressed industrial areas of France are as unenthused by 'progressive politics' as the rustbelt was in the US and that will be the base for Le Pen's vote in the runoff
Macron will be quite content for it to be him v Le Pen in the runoff. He'd be a locked-on certainty by that point.
The biggest risk for Macron is that his vote doesn't turnout and he gets pipped out of a Fillon v Le Pen runoff.
Probably, though if Macron does get through polls now suggest Le Pen will run him closer than Fillon would
My French other half has gone to bed in a huff , switching to Le Pen from Macron. The waltzing of the terrorists across the open border from Belgium has gone down very badly. No doubt she'll be back to Macron after breakfast
The 39-year old gunman was known by intelligence services for radicalisation and had previously targeted police 16 years ago in a car chase, when he opened fire on officers, according to reports.
During questioning in a police station, he managed to get hold of a police weapon and fire five times. The policeman survived, but the man was sentence to several years in prison for the attack.
The gunman, who has a previous murder conviction, had recently been detained for questioning in a police station in Meaux, outside Paris, after "informants" had indicated that he was "seeking to obtain weapons to kill policemen", according to reports.
But due to a lack of evidence, anti-terror prosecutors "let him go".
Do you have a source for this? Utterly unbelievable, should have been locked up still for his murder conviction.
Trump on Paris attack "Our condolences from our country to the people of France," he said. "It looks like another terrorist attack and... what can you say? It just never ends." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39662219
Trump - for all his many odious and egregious faults - has the knack of nailing a mood, once in a while, and expressing it in exactly the right way:
The 39-year old gunman was known by intelligence services for radicalisation and had previously targeted police 16 years ago in a car chase, when he opened fire on officers, according to reports.
During questioning in a police station, he managed to get hold of a police weapon and fire five times. The policeman survived, but the man was sentence to several years in prison for the attack.
The gunman, who has a previous murder conviction, had recently been detained for questioning in a police station in Meaux, outside Paris, after "informants" had indicated that he was "seeking to obtain weapons to kill policemen", according to reports.
But due to a lack of evidence, anti-terror prosecutors "let him go".
Do you have a source for this? Utterly unbelievable, should have been locked up still for his murder conviction.
Smart for him to do so, makes him look like a President in waiting. Obama remains very popular in France and even more so when compared to Trump. Obama obviously didn't make any back of the queue comments to the French so hasn't dented his reputation there either.
It will certainly go down well in most of France and especially in Paris but I think the more depressed industrial areas of France are as unenthused by 'progressive politics' as the rustbelt was in the US and that will be the base for Le Pen's vote in the runoff
Macron will be quite content for it to be him v Le Pen in the runoff. He'd be a locked-on certainty by that point.
The biggest risk for Macron is that his vote doesn't turnout and he gets pipped out of a Fillon v Le Pen runoff.
Probably, though if Macron does get through polls now suggest Le Pen will run him closer than Fillon would
My French other half has gone to bed in a huff , switching to Le Pen from Macron. The waltzing of the terrorists across the open border from Belgium has gone down very badly. No doubt she'll be back to Macron after breakfast
Interesting, if in the privacy of the polling booth a few more French voters do the same Le Pen could top the poll in the first round at least but we will see. At the moment Macron is narrowly ahead of Le Pen, I still expect them both to go through to the runoff
The 39-year old gunman was known by intelligence services for radicalisation and had previously targeted police 16 years ago in a car chase, when he opened fire on officers, according to reports.
During questioning in a police station, he managed to get hold of a police weapon and fire five times. The policeman survived, but the man was sentence to several years in prison for the attack.
The gunman, who has a previous murder conviction, had recently been detained for questioning in a police station in Meaux, outside Paris, after "informants" had indicated that he was "seeking to obtain weapons to kill policemen", according to reports.
But due to a lack of evidence, anti-terror prosecutors "let him go".
Good god. Some questions to be asked. Just fucking lock them up forever. They are like pedophiles. They do not change.
I can't see Corbyn agreeing with your statement...
Trump on Paris attack "Our condolences from our country to the people of France," he said. "It looks like another terrorist attack and... what can you say? It just never ends." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39662219
Trump - for all his many odious and egregious faults - has the knack of nailing a mood, once in a while, and expressing it in exactly the right way:
"What can you say? It just never ends"
Is pretty much perfect.
Sean and Richard
If you come to NYC, you must try out Contra. 7 course prix fixe for $67 (ok, it's just about to go up to $74). The best meal I had in ages, with everything new and surprising. Combinations of flavours that not only were unexpected, but worked, paired with wines that were odd on their own, but worked with the food.
Trump on Paris attack "Our condolences from our country to the people of France," he said. "It looks like another terrorist attack and... what can you say? It just never ends." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39662219
Trump - for all his many odious and egregious faults - has the knack of nailing a mood, once in a while, and expressing it in exactly the right way:
"What can you say? It just never ends"
Is pretty much perfect.
Agreed. Obama actually came close to saying something like that with the last mass shooting he had to comment on - depressed and defeated, but honest. Obviously you hope for solutions from your leaders, but in their absence you take what you can I guess.
Is there value in finding a marginal where Labour could hold on against the national swing? If its anywhere you'd assume its London constituencies surely.
Lab Bristol West @ 2.87 on BF sportsbook looks good.
It's a 3-way left wing fight with the tory/UKIP vote too low to matter.
Corbyn is very appealing to lots of 2015 greens. The Lucas lot (or even, conceivably, LD's) may take it - but with national polling as it is - Lab are surely still favs.
So betfair have the LibDems at 28.5 o/u seats but 7/4 to win Bath ?
Are they expecting 15 LibDem gains from Labour ?
They bet Burnley 8/13, Lib dem 5/4 labour
I prefer Bath for the LibDems.
Yes. The Lib Dems have been over-backed in several seats but 7-4 in Bath is too generous.
Small UKIP vote (6%), relatively big Labour and Green votes (13% and 12%). Environmentalist ex-Green running for Lib Dems. Clear Remain majority in June. Tory MP has been in news for the wrong reasons. If the Lib Dems get 20 seats, I can't see why Bath wouldn't be one.
Is there value in finding a marginal where Labour could hold on against the national swing? If its anywhere you'd assume its London constituencies surely.
Lab Bristol West @ 2.87 on BF sportsbook looks good.
It's a 3-way left wing fight with the tory/UKIP vote too low to matter.
Corbyn is very appealing to lots of 2015 greens. The Lucas lot (or even, conceivably, LD's) may take it - but with national polling as it is - Lab are surely still favs.
Lab should probably be >50% (odds-on) IMO.
That would have been my pick until Labour started banging on about £70k being Richy McRich Face....there are a hell of a lot of folk there that earn that kind of money or are kids at uni from families who do.
Is there value in finding a marginal where Labour could hold on against the national swing? If its anywhere you'd assume its London constituencies surely.
Lab Bristol West @ 2.87 on BF sportsbook looks good.
It's a 3-way left wing fight with the tory/UKIP vote too low to matter.
Corbyn is very appealing to lots of 2015 greens. The Lucas lot (or even, conceivably, LD's) may take it - but with national polling as it is - Lab are surely still favs.
Trump on Paris attack "Our condolences from our country to the people of France," he said. "It looks like another terrorist attack and... what can you say? It just never ends." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39662219
Trump - for all his many odious and egregious faults - has the knack of nailing a mood, once in a while, and expressing it in exactly the right way:
"What can you say? It just never ends"
Is pretty much perfect.
Egregious is a great and interesting word. It's etymology, as you probably know, is e-grex. "Standing out from the flock".
Initially this was meant positively, as in just "outstanding". Now it has come to mean "outstandingly bad".
So, egregious, "standing out from the flock", now describes the errant or black sheep of the flock.
Is there value in finding a marginal where Labour could hold on against the national swing? If its anywhere you'd assume its London constituencies surely.
Lab Bristol West @ 2.87 on BF sportsbook looks good.
It's a 3-way left wing fight with the tory/UKIP vote too low to matter.
Corbyn is very appealing to lots of 2015 greens. The Lucas lot (or even, conceivably, LD's) may take it - but with national polling as it is - Lab are surely still favs.
Lab should probably be >50% (odds-on) IMO.
I wonder whether the LDs might stand aside here.
Why ?
Its a former seat, they have councillors and many of their voters would vote Conservative instead.
Surreal on TW just now - Chuka as nonplussed as the rest of them!
Damn, I've been in the States too long. Automatically read nonplussed in the US sense (unimpressed), rather than the British one, rendering your comment nonplussing (UK sense).
Is there value in finding a marginal where Labour could hold on against the national swing? If its anywhere you'd assume its London constituencies surely.
Lab Bristol West @ 2.87 on BF sportsbook looks good.
It's a 3-way left wing fight with the tory/UKIP vote too low to matter.
Corbyn is very appealing to lots of 2015 greens. The Lucas lot (or even, conceivably, LD's) may take it - but with national polling as it is - Lab are surely still favs.
Lab should probably be >50% (odds-on) IMO.
I wonder whether the LDs might stand aside here.
Not in a seat they held two years ago. And the relations with the Greens locally are too icy. This isn't a value judgment... just saying it won't happen.
Surreal on TW just now - Chuka as nonplussed as the rest of them!
Damn, I've been in the States too long. Automatically read nonplussed in the US sense (unimpressed), rather than the British one, rendering your comment nonplussing (UK sense).
Is there a way for you to watch British TV over there?
François Fillon has called for the election campaign to be suspended, in solidarity with the victims of this evening's attack. It has to stop at midnight tomorrow anyway.
"We must show our solidarity with a French population which has good reason to be increasingly worried in the face of ever more of these terrorist attacks. The fight against Islamic totalitarianism, against those who order these attacks, against those who are at the origin of the rise of this intolerance, this integrism (the closest equivalent may be "fundamentalism" - Translator's Note) must be the number one priority of the next president of the Republic and the government."
Trump on Paris attack "Our condolences from our country to the people of France," he said. "It looks like another terrorist attack and... what can you say? It just never ends." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39662219
Trump - for all his many odious and egregious faults - has the knack of nailing a mood, once in a while, and expressing it in exactly the right way:
"What can you say? It just never ends"
Is pretty much perfect.
Egregious is a great and interesting word. It's etymology, as you probably know, is e-grex. "Standing out from the flock".
Initially this was meant positively, as in just "outstanding". Now it has come to mean "outstandingly bad".
So, egregious, "standing out from the flock", now describes the errant or black sheep of the flock.
Just noted the evolution of the meaning of nonplussed in the US away from the UK meaning.
Is there value in finding a marginal where Labour could hold on against the national swing? If its anywhere you'd assume its London constituencies surely.
Lab Bristol West @ 2.87 on BF sportsbook looks good.
It's a 3-way left wing fight with the tory/UKIP vote too low to matter.
Corbyn is very appealing to lots of 2015 greens. The Lucas lot (or even, conceivably, LD's) may take it - but with national polling as it is - Lab are surely still favs.
Lab should probably be >50% (odds-on) IMO.
I wonder whether the LDs might stand aside here.
Not in a seat they held two years ago. And the relations with the Greens locally are too icy. This isn't a value judgment... just saying it won't happen.
(Cue it happening).
Well it would be pretty much a sine qua non for the Greens to do any sort of deal with the LDs - if in return they stood aside throughout the SW London targets would that be fair?
Surreal on TW just now - Chuka as nonplussed as the rest of them!
Damn, I've been in the States too long. Automatically read nonplussed in the US sense (unimpressed), rather than the British one, rendering your comment nonplussing (UK sense).
Is there value in finding a marginal where Labour could hold on against the national swing? If its anywhere you'd assume its London constituencies surely.
Lab Bristol West @ 2.87 on BF sportsbook looks good.
It's a 3-way left wing fight with the tory/UKIP vote too low to matter.
Corbyn is very appealing to lots of 2015 greens. The Lucas lot (or even, conceivably, LD's) may take it - but with national polling as it is - Lab are surely still favs.
Lab should probably be >50% (odds-on) IMO.
I wonder whether the LDs might stand aside here.
Not in a seat they held two years ago. And the relations with the Greens locally are too icy. This isn't a value judgment... just saying it won't happen.
(Cue it happening).
Well it would be pretty much a sine qua non for the Greens to do any sort of deal with the LDs - if in return they stood aside throughout the SW London targets would that be fair?
As I say, not a value judgment on whether it should happen. Just a strong prediction that it won't.
I'd also say Sheffield Central is the best prospect of a Green gain. I doubt it will happen there either, but there are fewer arguments against.
Plans to house up to 28 of the most dangerous extremist inmates in England and Wales in three “separation centres” away from mainstream prisoners are to go ahead, the Ministry of Justice has announced.
The first of the three separation centres – known as “jihadi jails” – will be opened in HMP Frankland high-security prison in the coming weeks with two others to follow.
Betfair does seem a bit generous at the moment - Tory 1/7 overall majority - is any savings account offering that for 50 days? I suppose some unexpected event might intervene but it'd have to be pretty cataclysmic.
Plans to house up to 28 of the most dangerous extremist inmates in England and Wales in three “separation centres” away from mainstream prisoners are to go ahead, the Ministry of Justice has announced.
The first of the three separation centres – known as “jihadi jails” – will be opened in HMP Frankland high-security prison in the coming weeks with two others to follow.
I am still very cautious about all these crazy stories of Tories taking Bootle type results. Remember Cleggasm, when push came to shove people went nope can't do it, Labour it is even though Gordon is a moron.
The Cleggasm was a rather odd, ‘twitter generation’ inspired resurgence that failed to turn-out and vote. The ridiculous polling the Blues are now seeing is something else entirely, however, you are right to be cautious. Polls have been wrong before and we are still 6 weeks out from the election.
The apparent departure of GOP Congressman Jason Chaffetz. Says he is not running again with no understandable reason, now rumoured to be on the verge of resigning, rumours that foreign agencies are involved, rumours the authorities are investigating him.
All very odd but in the atmosphere over there at the moment, all very curious.
Express/Mirror running story of possibly two Tory MPs defecting to the Lib Dems.....
Any guesses? Anna Soubry maybe.
Said yesterday that it was viable to see a move, Conservative to Lib Dem. Somehow though you can see the response line, about flushing out the Euro-wets.
Express/Mirror running story of possibly two Tory MPs defecting to the Lib Dems.....
Any guesses? Anna Soubry maybe.
Said yesterday that it was viable to see a move, Conservative to Lib Dem. Somehow though you can see the response line, about flushing out the Euro-wets.
.
We have heard what Kim Jong May has done to Reckless and Carswell....I don't fancy trying to defect and it being taken lightly.
Probably have to watch out for a stiletto (of the shoe variety) in the back.
I'm not convinced Theresa May and the new (old) tories are really fully on board with this NHS privatization stuff. She doesn't come across (to me at least) as a small-state tory like Cameron & Osborne were.
I think, even many traditional conservatives are pissed off with stuff like this and wouldn't have a problem ditching the NHS outsourcing crap.
Does the contract with Virgin Health for paediatric services really save that much money?
The apparent departure of GOP Congressman Jason Chaffetz. Says he is not running again with no understandable reason, now rumoured to be on the verge of resigning, rumours that foreign agencies are involved, rumours the authorities are investigating him.
All very odd but in the atmosphere over there at the moment, all very curious.
Not sure sky news are wise running a piece talking about the fact chief constable s have quietly told them that smaller cities in the UK couldn't cope with a maurading terrorist attack.
Express/Mirror running story of possibly two Tory MPs defecting to the Lib Dems.....
Any guesses? Anna Soubry maybe.
Said yesterday that it was viable to see a move, Conservative to Lib Dem. Somehow though you can see the response line, about flushing out the Euro-wets.
.
Big scoop for the Express/Mirror if these Tory to Libdem MP defections happen, and especially when its very rare for defections to be so clearly briefed to give key media a scoop. Usually parties manage to keep them as underwraps as Theresa May did this snap GE until the planned announcement.
The story that Tory associations have yet to select candidates is interesting, this eelction has genuinely caught the Conservative grassroots out, this has got to assist the Lab incumbents they are targetting and following the expenses row of 2015 (story yet to be fully told - prob not till after the elctions) I would suggest that it will be a harder struggle for the grassroots than folk may suggest, I am not sure of the figures, but Tory membership has dwindled a fair bit in recent years, that plus a strained relationship between CCHQ and the Welsh Tories and a sense of abandonment by some candidates over the 2015 expenses means my instinct is that the Tories may not find it all plain sailing - not to say a Labour win but winning those target seats will not be that easy where the incumbent is dug in. My feeling is talk of a massive Tory majority is misguided. May's clunky media style may come to hamper her as the campaign develops and I am not sure the likes of Johnson and Fox are likely to win over Labour voters
Not sure sky news are wise running a piece talking about the fact chief constable s have quietly told them that smaller cities in the UK couldn't cope with a maurading terrorist attack.
I was watching Sky News coverage and also following Adam Boulton on twitter speculating as to the reason why Theresa May was going to make an unscheduled announcement outside No10 Downing Street on Tuesday. Adam Boulton actually read out the critical email he had immediately received from Fiona Hill (Joint Chief of Staff to Theresa May) on the back of one particlar area of speculation on air when he got it. She had a point if he had no verification for making that assertion, especially when you consider the magnitude of the announcement she then made instead.
Comments
But the reality was different. For a start, they don't serve 18 courses in succession, they start by serving three or four dishes, rather like canapés or tapas, together, and then go on to more substantial main dishes. So the overall structure of the meal is very well thought out and balanced - it's not just the fireworks of the individual dishes, but a coherent whole.
And then - every single one of the 18 dishes was spectacular. No exceptions, and none where you thought 'Hmm, interesting, but not actually very nice to eat'. Just 18 dishes of perfection, every one intriguing but not over the top in showmanship.
Also excellent service, very professional but also quite informal and friendly.
It's not something you'd want every day, but it was, even at £437 + service, good value (that was with champagne to start with and a decent wine), in the sense that I'd rather experience that once than three meals at £150 for two in a well-regarded but more ordinary place.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordnorth/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/
4/6 seems incredible, but shrewder bettors than me don't like it
5/6 now!!
51 councillors out of 51, never been anything but Labour, Tories 3rd last time...
In any case, I would be personally happy if they go over that so i'll be good either way.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_City_mosque_shooting
The Champs Elysee attacker, like the majority of France’s terrorists, was believed to be “known to police”.
The man has not been officially identified.
But, the fact he was familiar to authorities, will raise yet more questions about how able Europe’s police forces are to cope with the large number of potential attackers.
It takes at least 20 police to follow one person around the clock: the simple fact is that police have to chose who to follow. And sometimes they make the wrong decision.
All three of the terrorists in the January 2015 Charlie Hebdo attacks – Cherif and Said Kouachi, and Amedy Coulibaly – were known to police.
Mélenchon, Hollande, Bayrou, Sarkozy, Le Pen
Averages in the last five polls before the first round:
13.5% --- 28.3% --- 10.3% --- 26.1% --- 15.8%
Actual scores:
11.1% --- 28.6% --- 9.1% --- 27.2% --- 17.90%
Summary:
far right UP 2%,
far left DOWN 2%,
left NO CHANGE
"centrist" DOWN 1%
sitting LR (UMP to be exact) president UP 1%
There's no equivalent now to a sitting LR president, but the general picture is this:
rightwingers UP, especially the far right
far left DOWN
centrists DOWN A BIT
So the picture was one of a shy right and even shyer far right.
Using this as a basis for predicting R1 scores in 2017, we get this:
•Le Pen will come first
•Fillon may manage to beat Macron and make it to second place.
R2 in 2012:
Averages in the last five polls before the first round:
Sarkozy 44.2% --- Hollande 55.8%
Actual scores:
Sarkozy 48.4% --- Hollande 51.2%
Summary:
right wing UP 4%
left wing DOWN 4%
So again, a "shy right" picture.
Average in most recent five polls in 2017 for a Le Pen-Fillon runoff:
Le Pen 42.2%
Fillon 57.8%
From this base, Le Pen would need a huge swing of 8%. If she does fight Fillon, will she get it? It will be very interesting to watch the polls that are published tomorrow, the last day before R1 that polls are allowed to be published.
Tories 8/1 there
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/04/20/corbyn-has-doomed-labour-time-to-vote-tactically-for-the-strongest-opposition-to-brexit/
"Our condolences from our country to the people of France," he said. "It looks like another terrorist attack and... what can you say? It just never ends."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39662219
Its a nice return in seven weeks and would you mind if you lost ?
Good night!
Where i have no dog in the race and a poor chance of judging who would be best, like foreign elections, I generally hope for the closest possible contest. Go Le Pen and Filion.
The 39-year old gunman was known by intelligence services for radicalisation and had previously targeted police 16 years ago in a car chase, when he opened fire on officers, according to reports.
During questioning in a police station, he managed to get hold of a police weapon and fire five times. The policeman survived, but the man was sentence to several years in prison for the attack.
The gunman, who has a previous murder conviction, had recently been detained for questioning in a police station in Meaux, outside Paris, after "informants" had indicated that he was "seeking to obtain weapons to kill policemen", according to reports.
But due to a lack of evidence, anti-terror prosecutors "let him go".
The waltzing of the terrorists across the open border from Belgium has gone down very badly.
No doubt she'll be back to Macron after breakfast
But he was let out early following an appeal ruling.
If you come to NYC, you must try out Contra. 7 course prix fixe for $67 (ok, it's just about to go up to $74). The best meal I had in ages, with everything new and surprising. Combinations of flavours that not only were unexpected, but worked, paired with wines that were odd on their own, but worked with the food.
A truly stunning find:
http://contranyc.com
As Richard noted re the lake district restaurant, the food was coupled with excellent, knowledgeable but informal service.
It's a 3-way left wing fight with the tory/UKIP vote too low to matter.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bristol_West_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s
Corbyn is very appealing to lots of 2015 greens. The Lucas lot (or even, conceivably, LD's) may take it - but with national polling as it is - Lab are surely still favs.
Lab should probably be >50% (odds-on) IMO.
Small UKIP vote (6%), relatively big Labour and Green votes (13% and 12%). Environmentalist ex-Green running for Lib Dems. Clear Remain majority in June. Tory MP has been in news for the wrong reasons. If the Lib Dems get 20 seats, I can't see why Bath wouldn't be one.
1. Definitely on radar and not the standard 'we had him on file and spoke to him 5 years ago but considered no threat'
2. The name has appeared on IS paperwork in the past.
Known quantity, open and shut.
But, is he Belgian at all?
This is a constituency which has had big demographic changes.
On the current boundaries it would have been won by the Conservatives in 2001 but was Labour in 2015.
Initially this was meant positively, as in just "outstanding". Now it has come to mean "outstandingly bad".
So, egregious, "standing out from the flock", now describes the errant or black sheep of the flock.
Its a former seat, they have councillors and many of their voters would vote Conservative instead.
(Cue it happening).
He says
"We must show our solidarity with a French population which has good reason to be increasingly worried in the face of ever more of these terrorist attacks. The fight against Islamic totalitarianism, against those who order these attacks, against those who are at the origin of the rise of this intolerance, this integrism (the closest equivalent may be "fundamentalism" - Translator's Note) must be the number one priority of the next president of the Republic and the government."
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/nonplus
I'd also say Sheffield Central is the best prospect of a Green gain. I doubt it will happen there either, but there are fewer arguments against.
So there are a handful of possible Labour hold outs against the predicted national swing to the Conservatives.
Just picking the right ones...
Gina Miller threatening legal action again... Is she a "double agent" for LEAVE?
The first of the three separation centres – known as “jihadi jails” – will be opened in HMP Frankland high-security prison in the coming weeks with two others to follow.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/apr/21/extremist-inmates-to-be-held-in-separation-centres-inside-prisons
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3377212/adam-johnson-caught-bragging-to-prison-inmates-about-schoolgirl-he-sexually-abused-in-shocking-secret-video/
From a LD source. Ton of salt on standby.
The apparent departure of GOP Congressman Jason Chaffetz. Says he is not running again with no understandable reason, now rumoured to be on the verge of resigning, rumours that foreign agencies are involved, rumours the authorities are investigating him.
All very odd but in the atmosphere over there at the moment, all very curious.
.
Probably have to watch out for a stiletto (of the shoe variety) in the back.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10154595358212525&set=a.90617342524.95526.683822524&type=3
I'm not convinced Theresa May and the new (old) tories are really fully on board with this NHS privatization stuff. She doesn't come across (to me at least) as a small-state tory like Cameron & Osborne were.
I think, even many traditional conservatives are pissed off with stuff like this and wouldn't have a problem ditching the NHS outsourcing crap.
Does the contract with Virgin Health for paediatric services really save that much money?
Is it really worth the agro?
All I remember about him is he starred in the Zeffirelli Jesus thing and married Babs of Pan's People.
He looks a bit older.
Rocket man and ostriches - whoda thunk it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hjKd24UCPYY
Sorry to hear about your troubles earlier: I hope your cheese is holding your hand - hospitals can be lonely.Good luck.