politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Momentum’s cunning plan to change the narrative about LAB’s ch
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Momentum’s cunning plan to change the narrative about LAB’s chances
Momentum strategy for getting Corbyn elected….. not a spoof …..#GE2017 pic.twitter.com/lMfxDTsjgD
Comments
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Gotta love them Momentum types.
I feel like the right wing headbangers (and I mean the reallllly crazy ones, not merely hard brexiting leavers) aren't getting enough attention because of them.0 -
Loooooll!!!0
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Because the bookies are so poor, they need all the help they can get.....0
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I thought Corbyn was against rigged systems.0
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Ifop
1st round
Macron 24%
Le Pen 22.5%
Fillon 19.5%
Melenchon 18.5%
Runoff
Macron 61%
Le Pen 39%
http://m.parismatch.com/Actu/Politique/Sondage-presidentielle-Macron-creuse-l-ecart-12376640 -
Le Pen is back as second favourite now at Betfair.0
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Don't hold the blessed JC responsible for the follies of some of his followers.OldKingCole said:I thought Corbyn was against rigged systems.
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Can we direct them to the constituency markets please.0
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I am of no party political persuasion. Can anyone tell me the differences between 'fake news', 'political spin' - and 'subterfuge' ?0
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Hughes is in to 8/11 now0
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Fake News - The Party you would never vote forjunius said:I am of no party political persuasion. Can anyone tell me the differences between 'fake news', 'political spin' - and 'subterfuge' ?
Political Spin - The Party you voted for last time
Subterfuge - The Party you are voting for this time0 -
Twelve - Like the number of jobs George Osborne will have by Christmas.
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Barking - at least we now know where #619 went to in such a hurry…0
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My gast is utterly flabbered.0
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It's also an interesting insight into a fundamental error in a lot of policy-making, particularly (but not only) on the left - the idea that people passively accept a change rather than responding to it. It's a logic most visible in tax policy, but also elsewhere (e.g. McDonnell's plan to crank up the printing presses at the Bank of England).
In fact, as those on here know, if you pile into the betting market for sentimental reasons, those not in it for sentimental reasons will graciously accept your generosity all day long by piling in on the other side of the see-saw.0 -
I got on Bermondsey for the LDs at evens earlier and Chester at 3/10 for the Tories.
I also did Batley and Spen at 6/4 - I don't think the Jo Cox effect will affect the Tories and their vote pool looks very promising there.0 -
I doubt there is any accepted definition that would pass muster. Personally I would suggest that fake news, an odious term that has cropped up in the past year, was supposed to refer to where stories were circulated that were just plain false, but has come to be thrown out at things that more spin. I would class spin as not telling outright falsehoods, but leaving things out, presenting things in as positive and negative a manner you can for partisan advantage, and so ruthless but not technically making things up. Subterfuge would I assume be deliberately hiding something, even suggesting you will do the opposite - so actively leading people away from the truth, rather than spin where you just try to polish it.junius said:I am of no party political persuasion. Can anyone tell me the differences between 'fake news', 'political spin' - and 'subterfuge' ?
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@stephenkb: Am hearing from reliable source that Michael Dugher is standing down.0
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They are a genius lot them Maomentumers. Just wait until they put their minds to solving world hunger.0
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Utterly pathetic from Momentum / Labour0
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Are we expecting any polling today?0
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So the steady narrative against Labour continues
Michael Fallon:
“Russia will be watching Labour’s feebleness that Jeremy Corbyn has not supported this deployment… Putin would certainly welcome feebler British defence.”0 -
His entire political career spent on the shadow benches - couldn’t face another 7 years..Scott_P said:@stephenkb: Am hearing from reliable source that Michael Dugher is standing down.
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I can assure them that won't work. At least not at £10 a pop.0
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Momentum Hackney are not just bonkers Corbynites, but bonkers Corbynites who voted for Diane Abbott.FrancisUrquhart said:They are a genius lot them Maomentumers. Just wait until they put their minds to solving world hunger.
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Welcome to pb.com, Mr. Junius.
Mr. P, I'd swap the spin/subterfuge definitions. Subterfuge sounds worse than spin, to me.0 -
Is this part of the awesome ground game we were told about before last election?SimonStClare said:Barking - at least we now know where #619 went to in such a hurry…
ROFL0 -
The strategy is to bring the odds down.Tissue_Price said:I can assure them that won't work. At least not at £10 a pop.
I assume they'll keep betting more to bring the odds down further.
When Corbyn is Even money they'll have to up the stakes.0 -
They should double him up with Asselineau. The liabilities would be "frightening".Pulpstar said:
The strategy is to bring the odds down.Tissue_Price said:I can assure them that won't work. At least not at £10 a pop.
I assume they'll keep betting more to bring the odds down further.
When Corbyn is Even money they'll have to up the stakes.0 -
Pretty sure there is enough laughter in the world to take the piss out of both sets.kle4 said:Gotta love them Momentum types.
I feel like the right wing headbangers (and I mean the reallllly crazy ones, not merely hard brexiting leavers) aren't getting enough attention because of them.0 -
Excellent. Much more precise than all/most politicianskle4 said:
I doubt there is any accepted definition that would pass muster. Personally I would suggest that fake news, an odious term that has cropped up in the past year, was supposed to refer to where stories were circulated that were just plain false, but has come to be thrown out at things that more spin. I would class spin as not telling outright falsehoods, but leaving things out, presenting things in as positive and negative a manner you can for partisan advantage, and so ruthless but not technically making things up. Subterfuge would I assume be deliberately hiding something, even suggesting you will do the opposite - so actively leading people away from the truth, rather than spin where you just try to polish it.junius said:I am of no party political persuasion. Can anyone tell me the differences between 'fake news', 'political spin' - and 'subterfuge' ?
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I think kle4 describes it right on fake news/spin/subterfuge.
Of course, "fake news" has been widely redefined (starting with Trump in the US, but picked up by Momentum here) as, essentially, spin, or even just news you'd rather not see reported.
When Trump talks about investigations into senior campaign staff over Russian links as "fake news", that simply isn't correct in the literal sense - they ARE definitely being investigated. It's possible he's right that the significance has been over-hyped, or that there are innocent explanations for all contacts, or that there aren't but he was in the dark. But "fake news" it isn't.
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Just heard Dawn Butler on PM. Snuff Radio.0
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I'm sure the bookies would be happy to increase the liability on Labour considering the source of these Mug Tenner bets.0
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Well - apart from those who voted to make him leader....kle4 said:
Don't hold the blessed JC responsible for the follies of some of his followers.OldKingCole said:I thought Corbyn was against rigged systems.
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My liabilities on that combo are pretty "frightening" too.Tissue_Price said:
They should double him up with Asselineau. The liabilities would be "frightening".Pulpstar said:
The strategy is to bring the odds down.Tissue_Price said:I can assure them that won't work. At least not at £10 a pop.
I assume they'll keep betting more to bring the odds down further.
When Corbyn is Even money they'll have to up the stakes.0 -
Blinking heck - Labour are losing some quality people.Scott_P said:@stephenkb: Am hearing from reliable source that Michael Dugher is standing down.
Is McFadden gonna stand?0 -
FPT:
SeanT said:
» show previous quotes
Meh. He was cruel and vindictive, even bullying, when he wanted to be. I feel no remorse.
I just miss his wit and insight.
He gave as good as he got (which was often a hell of a lot). I was never quite sure where the misogyny claims came from.
He was a sneering whining twunt, well rid of him.0 -
Enjoyed Polly's piece from earlier today.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/19/general-election-labour-annihilation-jeremy-corbyn
Wrong, wrong and wrong again. Was ever there a more crassly inept politician than Jeremy Corbyn, whose every impulse is to make the wrong call on everything? It’s not excitingly flamboyant red radicalism that has done for Labour, but his sluggish incompetence at the absolute basics of leadership.
Some vicious infighting in the comments.0 -
Sadly true - it boils down to competence.Anorak said:Enjoyed Polly's piece from earlier today.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/19/general-election-labour-annihilation-jeremy-corbyn
Wrong, wrong and wrong again. Was ever there a more crassly inept politician than Jeremy Corbyn, whose every impulse is to make the wrong call on everything? It’s not excitingly flamboyant red radicalism that has done for Labour, but his sluggish incompetence at the absolute basics of leadership.
Some vicious infighting in the comments.0 -
"but there are some of us, I think many of us, who will not accept that this blow need be mortal: who will not believe that such an end is inevitable. There are some of us who will fight, and fight, and fight again, to save the party we love."Fenster said:
Blinking heck - Labour are losing some quality people.Scott_P said:@stephenkb: Am hearing from reliable source that Michael Dugher is standing down.
Is McFadden gonna stand?0 -
Is this an Alex Salmond thread ?malcolmg said:FPT:
SeanT said:
» show previous quotes
Meh. He was cruel and vindictive, even bullying, when he wanted to be. I feel no remorse.
I just miss his wit and insight.
He gave as good as he got (which was often a hell of a lot). I was never quite sure where the misogyny claims came from.
He was a sneering whining twunt, well rid of him.0 -
Jezza's son has got to get a seat somewhereFenster said:
Blinking heck - Labour are losing some quality people.Scott_P said:@stephenkb: Am hearing from reliable source that Michael Dugher is standing down.
Is McFadden gonna stand?
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I'd be interested to know how far they analyse that, and how far they just have an automatic stop-loss that kicks in so that they can't lose more than x% of market size on any particular outcome. My guess is that Shadsy has some latitude to run up a potential liability on an unlikely outcome, but not total freedom... but would be genuinely interested in that.LordWakefield said:I'm sure the bookies would be happy to increase the liability on Labour considering the source of these Mug Tenner bets.
In any event, though, even if there was some kind of automatic stop-loss adjustment, they'd quickly find non-mug tenners to balance it off and push the Labour price out again.0 -
3. Is impossible.SeanT said:0 -
Posting this just for some of the excitable sorts on here
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/20/north-korea-warns-super-mighty-preemptive-strike-will-reduce/0 -
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Tim made me laugh though... As do you Malc. If someone makes me laugh they are fine by me.malcolmg said:FPT:
SeanT said:
» show previous quotes
Meh. He was cruel and vindictive, even bullying, when he wanted to be. I feel no remorse.
I just miss his wit and insight.
He gave as good as he got (which was often a hell of a lot). I was never quite sure where the misogyny claims came from.
He was a sneering whining twunt, well rid of him. 0 -
Unwise. Her record as Home Secretary in that respect is not one she wants a focus on, especially for non EU immigration that she could have done something about.SeanT said:0 -
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No, it isn't.rottenborough said:
3. Is impossible.SeanT said:
There is an economic cost however.0 -
Having the Sun and the monarch supporting Leave, and fielding a transvestite wearing lipstick and a pink beret to make the case for Remain against Nigel Farage on Question Time, also helped.SeanT said:Cameron fucked up the timing so badly. And the dramaturgy. He should have stormed out of the negotiations saying This isn't good enough!", then he could have threatened to campaign for Leave unless he got something more, then six months later Brussels would have yielded some meaningless "better deal"....
All of this should have been pre-arranged and secretly choreographed with Paris and Berlin and the Commission...
What a dork he was. Just a very bad politician. BAD.
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Shield against UKIP? What evidence is there that she needs one? Is Crosby misreading this?SeanT said:0 -
Surely a gift to UKIP in the years to come, as immigration inevitably remains in the 100,000s.SeanT said:0 -
I think you're all missing the point here, she's not trying to get the EEA leavers vote. This is bread and butter 17 million leave vote stuff - UKIP just didn't have the brand that the Tories do.DavidL said:
Unwise. Her record as Home Secretary in that respect is not one she wants a focus on, especially for non EU immigration that she could have done something about.SeanT said:0 -
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Labour MPs have until 6pm tonight to jump according to Tom Harris.0
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Looks like these Momentum numpties have misread the email from Jezza asking us all to donate £10.
I have promised myself that I will go to bed after the exit poll on election night. Staying up would be the political equivalent of sticking pins in my eyes for 8 hours.0 -
Dawn butler is the idiots idiot...makes Lucy Powell look like a genius. She should be nowhere near parliament. The only thing she is good at is claiming expenses for things she shouldn't be.0
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And people say May prioritises short term advantage over long term? Preposterous.SeanT said:
We'll see how the campaign goes, and I recognise the Tories should still not be complacent, but it seems like she is overly cautious in some respects.0 -
I think that's very short-termist, and unnecessary given the polling. Look at how DC's "cast iron promise" came back to haunt him again and again and again.Pulpstar said:0 -
Definitely has to be in aspiration territory. But leaving it at the take back control point is better. Especially if combined with it will be regulated to meet the needs of our economy from time to time (which, of course, it always should have been). At times of fairly full employment this might mean quite high immigration to sustain growth. So be it.SeanT said:
Agreed. Unless she takes students out of the numbers (which she refuses to do) then this is unachievable. Which is why she failed to achieve it as Home Sec, as you say.DavidL said:
Unwise. Her record as Home Secretary in that respect is not one she wants a focus on, especially for non EU immigration that she could have done something about.SeanT said:
However it depends on the phrasing in the manifesto. If she commits to this in the next parliament it would be insane. If she says it is a long term aim, then fair enough. The wording will be crucial.0 -
So, that's why they all voted for an early election?ToryJim said:https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/855093315217260544
Did she really say this? Just comical.0 -
Given how cynical May is she must already have a scapegoat in mind for why it won't be achieved. Our old friend the EU?0
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That is what happens when you believe your own press, she ended up punch drunk. Way beyond her talent level and more gubbings to come for sure. When will we see her run south with her tail between her legs.calum said:0 -
Point and laugh at Labourrottenborough said:
So, that's why they all voted for an early election?ToryJim said:https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/855093315217260544
Did she really say this? Just comical.0 -
I would guess any slight shorting off the odds on Labour would lead to the Tories drifting. That's the point were the smart money will come in for the Tories. Basically momentum don't have the financial clout to move the market against the smart money in a high volume market such as this.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
I'd be interested to know how far they analyse that, and how far they just have an automatic stop-loss that kicks in so that they can't lose more than x% of market size on any particular outcome. My guess is that Shadsy has some latitude to run up a potential liability on an unlikely outcome, but not total freedom... but would be genuinely interested in that.LordWakefield said:I'm sure the bookies would be happy to increase the liability on Labour considering the source of these Mug Tenner bets.
In any event, though, even if there was some kind of automatic stop-loss adjustment, they'd quickly find non-mug tenners to balance it off and push the Labour price out again.0 -
Best election campaign comment since Lucy Powell's "written in stone".ToryJim said:https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/855093315217260544
Did she really say this? Just comical.0 -
Well exactly. Some of us trying to be sensibly critical of May, this isn't helping!rottenborough said:
So, that's why they all voted for an early election?ToryJim said:https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/855093315217260544
Did she really say this? Just comical.0 -
Six more weeks of this! Pass the popcorn...ThreeQuidder said:
Best election campaign comment since Lucy Powell's "written in stone".ToryJim said:https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/855093315217260544
Did she really say this? Just comical.0 -
She has to commit to tens of thousands.
Because if she doesn't, the media will say target abandoned, she won't reduce immigration etc etc and it opens her up to massive attack.
Which is why she also must stick to pensions triple lock.
People on here remind me of cricket commentators who always say the captain should declare but when they were captain they didn't.
It's so easy to say take a risk when you are not responsible. When you are in the hot seat it looks very different.
One only needs to see how self-employed NICs blew up in the Government face. May cannot risk something similar on immigration or pensions - areas which are of much greater importance to far more people.0 -
You saving your pocket money to pay up on June 9thAlanbrooke said:
Is this an Alex Salmond thread ?malcolmg said:FPT:
SeanT said:
» show previous quotes
Meh. He was cruel and vindictive, even bullying, when he wanted to be. I feel no remorse.
I just miss his wit and insight.
He gave as good as he got (which was often a hell of a lot). I was never quite sure where the misogyny claims came from.
He was a sneering whining twunt, well rid of him.0 -
It may well be that Crosby's reasoning is that, if a Tory win is seen as a racing certainty, that gives right-wingers space to make a point by casting a UKIP vote, denying the Tories seats at the margins (and especially against the Lib Dems in places). They need something to give those voters on the doorstep (and over the airwaves etc).williamglenn said:
Shield against UKIP? What evidence is there that she needs one? Is Crosby misreading this?SeanT said:0 -
Dugher is an outspoken supporter of Israel, so probably felt uncomfortable in Corbyn's Labour. Indeed, Corbyn sacked him.Floater said:
Jezza's son has got to get a seat somewhereFenster said:
Blinking heck - Labour are losing some quality people.Scott_P said:@stephenkb: Am hearing from reliable source that Michael Dugher is standing down.
Is McFadden gonna stand?
Mcfadden is an outspoken denouncer of Islamic terrorism (Corbyn sacked him for this), so I wonder if this is an organised refusal to stand....0 -
Don't knock her, she is one of my best results for next Labour leader, +3 grand or some such :>FrancisUrquhart said:Dawn butler is the idiots idiot...makes Lucy Powell look like a genius. She should be nowhere near parliament. The only thing she is good at is claiming expenses for things she shouldn't be.
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Interesting. It was probably a failure she feels keenly. She could just blame Cameron for it, like so much else.DavidL said:
Unwise. Her record as Home Secretary in that respect is not one she wants a focus on, especially for non EU immigration that she could have done something about.SeanT said:0 -
Has she ruled out including students at universities? One way to destroy the sector.williamglenn said:Given how cynical May is she must already have a scapegoat in mind for why it won't be achieved. Our old friend the EU?
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Seven actually...rottenborough said:
Six more weeks of this! Pass the popcorn...ThreeQuidder said:
Best election campaign comment since Lucy Powell's "written in stone".ToryJim said:https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/855093315217260544
Did she really say this? Just comical.0 -
Congratulations to Betfair Sportsbook on having stolen a march on the rest of the bookmaking fraternity by having already posted up odds for hundreds of constituencies throughout the UK, whilst their rivals have yet to start - you've been well and truly outmanoeuvred on this occasion Shadsy!
What a difference a few months make - in my neighbouring constituency of Richmond Park here in S.W. London, where Zac Goldsmith was toppled after forcing a by-election in December, the Tories are now 1/200 to recapture this seat from the LibDems who are on offer at 25/1, just ahead of Labour at 33/1.0 -
The dodgy business going on with unite kinder buggers labours attack like on may being anti-democratic.0
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He has never uttered one word on Scotland, unbelievable.calum said:Never heard of him !
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/8550940050503352320 -
Ive told Mike to buy two new servers from the wall of money coming down south :-)malcolmg said:
You saving your pocket money to pay up on June 9thAlanbrooke said:
Is this an Alex Salmond thread ?malcolmg said:FPT:
SeanT said:
» show previous quotes
Meh. He was cruel and vindictive, even bullying, when he wanted to be. I feel no remorse.
I just miss his wit and insight.
He gave as good as he got (which was often a hell of a lot). I was never quite sure where the misogyny claims came from.
He was a sneering whining twunt, well rid of him.0 -
I am going to be the size of a house by the time of the GE !!!rottenborough said:
Six more weeks of this! Pass the popcorn...ThreeQuidder said:
Best election campaign comment since Lucy Powell's "written in stone".ToryJim said:https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/855093315217260544
Did she really say this? Just comical.0 -
Wow. 25/1 looks seriously tempting. I would expect the Tories to regain it but it is not that level of certainty.peter_from_putney said:Congratulations to Betfair Sportsbook on having stolen a march on the rest of the bookmaking fraternity by having already posted up odds for hundreds of constituencies throughout the UK, whilst their rivals have yet to start - you've been well and truly outmanoeuvred on this occasion Shadsy!
What a difference a few months make - in my neighbouring constituency of Richmond Park here in S.W. London, where Zac Goldsmith was toppled after forcing a by-election in December, the Tories are now 1/200 to recapture this seat from the LibDems who are on offer at 25/1, just ahead of Labour at 33/1.0 -
Will the last MP to stand down please turn out the lights? 0
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That LD price won't last more than a few seconds, so pile on..peter_from_putney said:Congratulations to Betfair Sportsbook on having stolen a march on the rest of the bookmaking fraternity by having already posted up odds for hundreds of constituencies throughout the UK, whilst their rivals have yet to start - you've been well and truly outmanoeuvred on this occasion Shadsy!
What a difference a few months make - in my neighbouring constituency of Richmond Park here in S.W. London, where Zac Goldsmith was toppled after forcing a by-election in December, the Tories are now 1/200 to recapture this seat from the LibDems who are on offer at 25/1, just ahead of Labour at 33/1.0 -
I'm planning to have to have a week in a darkened room half way through or my lungs will give out from laughter.GIN1138 said:
Seven actually...rottenborough said:
Six more weeks of this! Pass the popcorn...ThreeQuidder said:
Best election campaign comment since Lucy Powell's "written in stone".ToryJim said:https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/855093315217260544
Did she really say this? Just comical.0 -
Mr. Putney, are the Lib Dems value, in your view, at 26 to retain Richmond?0
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I have been looking at West Bromwich East. Could be an interesting result once the votes are counted in June. Depending on boundary changes the seat was pretty close in 1992 & 1987.
Might Tom Watson be in trouble?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Bromwich_East_(UK_Parliament_constituency)0 -
Saying it and doing it are two different things.MikeL said:She has to commit to tens of thousands.
Because if she doesn't, the media will say target abandoned, she won't reduce immigration etc etc and it opens her up to massive attack.
Which is why she also must stick to pensions triple lock.
People on here remind me of cricket commentators who always say the captain should declare but when they were captain they didn't.
It's so easy to say take a risk when you are not responsible. When you are in the hot seat it looks very different.
One only needs to see how self-employed NICs blew up in the Government face. May cannot risk something similar on immigration or pensions - areas which are of much greater importance to far more people.
This will blow up in her face sometime soon. The masses who voted Brexit to keep Johnny Foreigner out will go ballistic!0 -
25/1 sounds like value considering their MP is the incumbent. I'd expect more like 4/1peter_from_putney said:Congratulations to Betfair Sportsbook on having stolen a march on the rest of the bookmaking fraternity by having already posted up odds for hundreds of constituencies throughout the UK, whilst their rivals have yet to start - you've been well and truly outmanoeuvred on this occasion Shadsy!
What a difference a few months make - in my neighbouring constituency of Richmond Park here in S.W. London, where Zac Goldsmith was toppled after forcing a by-election in December, the Tories are now 1/200 to recapture this seat from the LibDems who are on offer at 25/1, just ahead of Labour at 33/1.0 -
LOLAlanbrooke said:
Ive told Mike to buy two new servers from the wall of money coming down south :-)malcolmg said:
You saving your pocket money to pay up on June 9thAlanbrooke said:
Is this an Alex Salmond thread ?malcolmg said:FPT:
SeanT said:
» show previous quotes
Meh. He was cruel and vindictive, even bullying, when he wanted to be. I feel no remorse.
I just miss his wit and insight.
He gave as good as he got (which was often a hell of a lot). I was never quite sure where the misogyny claims came from.
He was a sneering whining twunt, well rid of him.0 -
Hello. First post.
Did Dawn Butler just accuse Costa Coffee (owned by UK domiciled and listed listed Whitbread) of tax dodging?0
