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Comments
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Politicians avoiding the press goes at least back to 2005. I remember a Blair-Brown little speech type event where, afterwards, assorted applauding party hacks formed a ring around them, preventing the media asking questions.
Not saying it's a good thing, but it's certainly not a new thing.0 -
They vote too - and indeed are more likely to vote.......Scott_P said:
Fixed it for youCarlottaVance said:PM talking to
votershand picked Tory supporters shocker! It will never do!0 -
Yep. It is the best local target.Pulpstar said:
Are you up for the Battle of Bosworthfoxinsoxuk said:
Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.rcs1000 said:LibDem punters.
Remember this:
There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.
Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.
Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.
So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.
Let's assume every possible Conservative seats. That's another seven (including Lewes).
Let's also give them all four of the vaguely possible SNP seats.
And let's add another two seats which the LibDems remarkably pull out of the hat.
I think any normal person would agree that these are pretty bullish forecasts for the LibDems. And - assuming they keep all their current seats - that puts them on... (drumroll)...
28 seats.
And that's in a "best of all possible worlds" scenario**.
Much more likely they manage three of the five labour seats, two of the Conservative ones, and two SNP ones. We'll give them one for good luck, and assume they hold Richmond and their other seats.
That gets you to 18. And I'm still probably a bit bullish. My range on their seats would be 14 to 18.
* Lewes almost makes the cut, so that's a possible for them too.
** Assuming no total Labour meltdown.
Lots of strong second places to build on too.
?0 -
Is he the homeopathy nutter?rcs1000 said:
Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.foxinsoxuk said:Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.
Lots of strong second places to build on too.0 -
And UKIP......foxinsoxuk said:
Yes, LDs are basically reasonable people, and open to tactical voting. That Lab vote looks squeezable too.rcs1000 said:
LibDem always have the lowest certainty to vote, though. Was true in 2001 and 2005 too when they outperformed expectations.CarlottaVance said:Also Tories surest to vote Tory - Lib dems the least confident:
Vote for party: Definitely / Probably / Possibly
Con: 74 / 18 / 7
Lab: 51 / 29 / 16
LibD; 31 / 33 / 33
UKIP: 46 / 31 / 15
Those Lob Dem numbers....'mile wide and inch deep' springs to mind......chortle....0 -
I amazed to read in the Gruadian the other day the NHS is increasingly using electric shock treatment.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is he the homeopathy nutter?rcs1000 said:
Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.foxinsoxuk said:Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.
Lots of strong second places to build on too.0 -
Yes.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is he the homeopathy nutter?rcs1000 said:
Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.foxinsoxuk said:Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.
Lots of strong second places to build on too.0 -
Mr. 1000, presumably he'll be doing very little campaigning, to increase its effectiveness.0
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Astrology too:Richard_Tyndall said:
Is he the homeopathy nutter?rcs1000 said:
Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.foxinsoxuk said:Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.
Lots of strong second places to build on too.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/25/astrology-help-nhs-claim-conservative-mp-david-tredinnick0 -
Practising for when Jeremy Hunt has his appendix out?FrancisUrquhart said:
I amazed to read in the Gruadian the other day the NHS is increasingly using electric shock treatment.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is he the homeopathy nutter?rcs1000 said:
Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.foxinsoxuk said:Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.
Lots of strong second places to build on too.0 -
Just in Micro-doses...Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 1000, presumably he'll be doing very little campaigning, to increase its effectiveness.
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Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. 1000, presumably he'll be doing very little campaigning, to increase its effectiveness.
He also asked a question in the House of Commons about that well known drug 'Cake'.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIAJemmO-bg0 -
We All Know :TheScreamingEagles said:For those who like to plan accordingly.
Mike's major holiday begins 30th of June till the middle of July.
We all know what happens when I'm guest editor.
Bad Puns .... Worse History Information .... Shocking Musical References .....Terrible Fashion Advice
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The Prince over the Water is available at 2 on BF to win a seat.0
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Mr. 1000, *sighs*0
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You shouldn't have been if you are talking about ect for depression; it is universally acknowledged that it can work when nothing else does.FrancisUrquhart said:
I amazed to read in the Gruadian the other day the NHS is increasingly using electric shock treatment.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is he the homeopathy nutter?rcs1000 said:
Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.foxinsoxuk said:Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.
Lots of strong second places to build on too.
It also is not perhaps as you imagine it, it isn't like the beginning of a Frankenstein film with the patient giving off blue sparks.0 -
Not a Lib Dem fan obviously but even I would be glad to see you win if it means getting rid of Tredinnick.foxinsoxuk said:
Yep. It is the best local target.Pulpstar said:
Are you up for the Battle of Bosworthfoxinsoxuk said:
Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.rcs1000 said:LibDem punters.
Remember this:
There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.
Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.
Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.
So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.
Let's assume every possible Conservative seats. That's another seven (including Lewes).
Let's also give them all four of the vaguely possible SNP seats.
And let's add another two seats which the LibDems remarkably pull out of the hat.
I think any normal person would agree that these are pretty bullish forecasts for the LibDems. And - assuming they keep all their current seats - that puts them on... (drumroll)...
28 seats.
And that's in a "best of all possible worlds" scenario**.
Much more likely they manage three of the five labour seats, two of the Conservative ones, and two SNP ones. We'll give them one for good luck, and assume they hold Richmond and their other seats.
That gets you to 18. And I'm still probably a bit bullish. My range on their seats would be 14 to 18.
* Lewes almost makes the cut, so that's a possible for them too.
** Assuming no total Labour meltdown.
Lots of strong second places to build on too. ?0 -
Sod all then I think, UK and French elections over and Brexit talks not yet in full swing though could be a Labour leadership challenge I supposeTheScreamingEagles said:For those who like to plan accordingly.
Mike's major holiday begins 30th of June till the middle of July.
We all know what happens when I'm guest editor.0 -
"it is universally acknowledged that it can work when nothing else does."Ishmael_Z said:
You shouldn't have been if you are talking about ect for depression; it is universally acknowledged that it can work when nothing else does.FrancisUrquhart said:
I amazed to read in the Gruadian the other day the NHS is increasingly using electric shock treatment.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is he the homeopathy nutter?rcs1000 said:
Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.foxinsoxuk said:Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.
Lots of strong second places to build on too.
It also is not perhaps as you imagine it, it isn't like the beginning of a Frankenstein film with the patient giving off blue sparks.
That isn't what the Gruadian claimed. They said no established benefits.
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Gove to NHS after election? He'll sort it all out...DecrepitJohnL said:
Practising for when Jeremy Hunt has his appendix out?FrancisUrquhart said:
I amazed to read in the Gruadian the other day the NHS is increasingly using electric shock treatment.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is he the homeopathy nutter?rcs1000 said:
Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.foxinsoxuk said:Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.
Lots of strong second places to build on too.0 -
To lay ????????????rottenborough said:The Prince over the Water is available at 2 on BF to win a seat.
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Rennie sensibly painting the LDs as the real pro EU party unlike the SNP which should help them win seats like Edinburgh WestCarlottaVance said:0 -
I think your logic is faulty here. If I've understood correctly, you're assuming that the LibDems won't win back any seats unless there was a higher-than average Remain vote. I don't think that's at all a valid assumption; the Remain/Leave factor is only one of the relevant considerations. For example, you mention Lewes but not Eastbourne. These are local to me, so I have a reasonable feel for them, and I reckon Eastbourne is probably the more vulnerable to a LibDem regain. Why? Because the 2015 baseline for Lewes was flattered by the huge personal vote for Norman Baker, who is not re-standing. In Eastbourne, in contrast, Stephen Lloyd is re-standing - and he'll be a formidable opponent for Caroline Ansell.rcs1000 said:LibDem punters.
Remember this:
There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.
Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.
Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.
So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.
.... [snip]0 -
He's awful. Turned into a toddler stamping his feet during the campaign. Refused to go on French Paxman (Jean Jacques Bourdin) unlike the 10 other candidates (even Le Pen was on the other day, and she actually does get overtly negative treatment) because he didn't want to have a hard time.ToryJim said:https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/855022422399098880
Hmm, Fillon is a pillock
If he were to scrape through to R2 against Le Pen, I really struggle to see how he could rally the left to support him at this point.0 -
Very briefly did a little on shock therapy at university. I believe the view was that it was quite extreme, but it could prove effective.0
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Oi. My knowledge of history is da best on pb if not the world.JackW said:
We All Know :TheScreamingEagles said:For those who like to plan accordingly.
Mike's major holiday begins 30th of June till the middle of July.
We all know what happens when I'm guest editor.
Bad Puns .... Worse History Information .... Shocking Musical References .....Terrible Fashion Advice0 -
GE held over because of massive outbreak of bird flu?HYUFD said:
Sod all then I think, UK and French elections over and Brexit talks not yet in full swing though could be a Labour leadership challenge I supposeTheScreamingEagles said:For those who like to plan accordingly.
Mike's major holiday begins 30th of June till the middle of July.
We all know what happens when I'm guest editor.0 -
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0
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zilch. Not a single £ matched on this new market.Pulpstar said:
To lay ????????????rottenborough said:The Prince over the Water is available at 2 on BF to win a seat.
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Yeah but a Blundell is standing in Lewes.Richard_Nabavi said:
I think your logic is faulty here. If I've understood correctly, you're assuming that the LibDems won't win back any seats unless there was a higher-than average Remain vote. I don't think that's at all a valid assumption; the Remain/Leave factor is only one of the relevant considerations. For example, you mention Lewes but not Eastbourne. These are local to me, so I have a reasonable feel for them, and I reckon Eastbourne is probably the more vulnerable to a LibDem regain. Why? Because the 2015 baseline for Lewes was flattered by the huge personal vote for Norman Baker, who is not re-standing. In Eastbourne, in contrast, Stephen Lloyd is re-standing - and he'll be a formidable opponent for Caroline Ansell.rcs1000 said:LibDem punters.
Remember this:
There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.
Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.
Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.
So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.
.... [snip]
Never underestimate a Blundell 0 -
I think people are confusing two different things:Morris_Dancer said:Very briefly did a little on shock therapy at university. I believe the view was that it was quite extreme, but it could prove effective.
1. Electro shock therapy for mental illness, which is extreme but effective
2. Electro shock treatment of pain, which is probably just a placebo.0 -
It is recommended that electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) is used only to achieve rapid and short-term improvement of severe symptoms after an adequate trial of other treatment options has proven ineffective and/or when the condition is considered to be potentially life-threatening, in individuals with:
catatonia
a prolonged or severe manic episode.0 -
ECT antedates modern clinical trials, so there is thin evidence, but abscence of evidence is not the same as abscence of effect.FrancisUrquhart said:
"it is universally acknowledged that it can work when nothing else does."Ishmael_Z said:
You shouldn't have been if you are talking about ect for depression; it is universally acknowledged that it can work when nothing else does.FrancisUrquhart said:
I amazed to read in the Gruadian the other day the NHS is increasingly using electric shock treatment.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is he the homeopathy nutter?rcs1000 said:
Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.foxinsoxuk said:Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.
Lots of strong second places to build on too.
It also is not perhaps as you imagine it, it isn't like the beginning of a Frankenstein film with the patient giving off blue sparks.
That isn't what the Gruadian claimed. They said no established benefits.
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You can lay Nigel for 500.0
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When will the Labour candidates for MPs who are standing down be announced?rottenborough said:
zilch. Not a single £ matched on this new market.Pulpstar said:
To lay ????????????rottenborough said:The Prince over the Water is available at 2 on BF to win a seat.
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Mr. 1000, I've never heard of the latter. I have heard, and was referring to, electro-shock treatment for depression.
Mr. Eagles, I see you're suffering delusions of historical knowledge again.0 -
The page i am seeing https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/apr/17/electroconvulsive-therapy-on-rise-england-ect-nhsFrancisUrquhart said:
"it is universally acknowledged that it can work when nothing else does."Ishmael_Z said:
You shouldn't have been if you are talking about ect for depression; it is universally acknowledged that it can work when nothing else does.FrancisUrquhart said:
I amazed to read in the Gruadian the other day the NHS is increasingly using electric shock treatment.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is he the homeopathy nutter?rcs1000 said:
Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.foxinsoxuk said:Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.
Lots of strong second places to build on too.
It also is not perhaps as you imagine it, it isn't like the beginning of a Frankenstein film with the patient giving off blue sparks.
That isn't what the Gruadian claimed. They said no established benefits.
cites a recent study saying effective in 91% of cases. It says no established explanation for why it works which is not the same thing.0 -
You can put me down for £10 if you are opening a book?rcs1000 said:
You want £50 at 10-1 on the LibDem's winning Vauxhall?TheScreamingEagles said:
Can I have £50 on that?rcs1000 said:
Vauxhall was 80.7% Remain according to Hanretty. The LibDems start at 6.9%, 43% behind Ms Hoey.williamglenn said:
A target for the London Lib Dem Remain focused campaign to aim at.TheScreamingEagles said:Kate Hoey standing again in Vauxhall.
Mind you, if* they could pick up half the Remain vote, they'd be in with a chance.
I'll offer you 10-1 if you want.
* You can't see it, but that's a very big if.
Sure, I'll take your money.0 -
One of yours?Pulpstar said:Yeah but a Blundell is standing in Lewes.
Never underestimate a Blundell0 -
I don't think you should post details of TSE's "episode" and treatment in the hours after Osborne announced he was standing down yesterday afternoon.grabcocque said:It is recommended that electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) is used only to achieve rapid and short-term improvement of severe symptoms after an adequate trial of other treatment options has proven ineffective and/or when the condition is considered to be potentially life-threatening, in individuals with:
catatonia
a prolonged or severe manic episode.0 -
Not a surprise really. God alone knows why this has to be seven weeks, or is it do with getting FTPA vote through?Scott_P said:0 -
I'm no fan of Mrs May but this is bollocks. Lots of PMs call early elections.
https://twitter.com/undefined/status/8547315698604032000 -
Pennies and bulldozers spring to mind.rottenborough said:You can lay Nigel for 500.
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And for depression NICE says:
1.10.4 Electroconvulsive therapy (ECT)
1.10.4.1 Consider ECT for acute treatment of severe depression that is life‑threatening and when a rapid response is required, or when other treatments have failed.
1.10.4.2 Do not use ECT routinely for people with moderate depression but consider it if their depression has not responded to multiple drug treatments and psychological treatment.
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I think I would prefer there was some proper clinical trials. For most modern treatments in order to get NCE approval the barrier is sensibly set to require a certain level of benefit.foxinsoxuk said:
ECT antedates modern clinical trials, so there is thin evidence, but abscence of evidence is not the same as abscence of effect.FrancisUrquhart said:
"it is universally acknowledged that it can work when nothing else does."Ishmael_Z said:
You shouldn't have been if you are talking about ect for depression; it is universally acknowledged that it can work when nothing else does.FrancisUrquhart said:
I amazed to read in the Gruadian the other day the NHS is increasingly using electric shock treatment.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is he the homeopathy nutter?rcs1000 said:
Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.foxinsoxuk said:Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.
Lots of strong second places to build on too.
It also is not perhaps as you imagine it, it isn't like the beginning of a Frankenstein film with the patient giving off blue sparks.
That isn't what the Gruadian claimed. They said no established benefits.0 -
Cannot understand the praise being heaped on Douglas Carswell and Gisela Stuart today.
From where I'm standing, they've led the country down a dark path, and are running away before the consequences become known. If they really believe this is right for Britain they should stay and make it happen and take the credit / blame properly.
I'm sure they are both decent constituency MPs, and I've always admired Douglas Carswell's views on democracy (other than the EU) but this comes across as running scared from any accountability for what they've done.0 -
Don't think so, although we might be 7th cousins or some such of course.Richard_Nabavi said:
One of yours?Pulpstar said:Yeah but a Blundell is standing in Lewes.
Never underestimate a Blundell0 -
Liketpfkar said:Cannot understand the praise being heaped on Douglas Carswell and Gisela Stuart today.
From where I'm standing, they've led the country down a dark path, and are running away before the consequences become known. If they really believe this is right for Britain they should stay and make it happen and take the credit / blame properly.
I'm sure they are both decent constituency MPs, and I've always admired Douglas Carswell's views on democracy (other than the EU) but this comes across as running scared from any accountability for what they've done.0 -
0
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That and they need about six weeks to tell the electorate about Jezza's back story. Four weeks wasn't enough.rottenborough said:
Not a surprise really. God alone knows why this has to be seven weeks, or is it do with getting FTPA vote through?Scott_P said:0 -
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The latter, I think. Had Corbyn not been so co-operative and had May chosen to go down the VoNC route, it would have been a fairly tight timescale to hit a June 8 election.rottenborough said:
Not a surprise really. God alone knows why this has to be seven weeks, or is it do with getting FTPA vote through?Scott_P said:0 -
It that the minimum that certain ladies charge for horizontal exercise with UKIP's finest ?rottenborough said:You can lay Nigel for 500.
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Just an aside, but the Women's Equality Party to win a seat (Ladbrokes) has fallen from 51 to 21.
'tis madness, surely?0 -
Why bother? Let's just get on with the slaughter.TheScreamingEagles said:
That and they need about six weeks to tell the electorate about Jezza's back story. Four weeks wasn't enough.rottenborough said:
Not a surprise really. God alone knows why this has to be seven weeks, or is it do with getting FTPA vote through?Scott_P said:0 -
OK. Let's look at Labour seats where the LDs are less than 20% behind:Richard_Nabavi said:
I think your logic is faulty here. If I've understood correctly, you're assuming that the LibDems won't win back any seats unless there was a higher-than average Remain vote. I don't think that's at all a valid assumption; the Remain/Leave factor is only one of the relevant considerations. For example, you mention Lewes but not Eastbourne. These are local to me, so I have a reasonable feel for them, and I reckon Eastbourne is probably the more vulnerable to a LibDem regain. Why? Because the 2015 baseline for Lewes was flattered by the huge personal vote for Norman Baker, who is not re-standing. In Eastbourne, in contrast, Stephen Lloyd is re-standing - and he'll be a formidable opponent for Caroline Ansell.rcs1000 said:LibDem punters.
Remember this:
There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.
Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.
Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.
So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.
.... [snip]
Cambridge (26.5% Leave)
Burnley (66.7%)
Bermondsey & Old Southwark (27.0%)
Cardiff Central (30.4%)
Birmingham Yardley (61.3%)
Bristol West (20.4%)
Horney & Wood Green (18.5%)
That's only SEVEN seats where the LDs are less than 20% behind a winning Labour Party. Five are good targets, the other two are big Leave areas where the 'overthrow the referendum' policy is unlikely to be a vote winner.
Eastbourne was 57.6% Leave. Could it go LibDem? Sure. There's a strong local presence, etc. But there's a big UKIP vote for the Tories to squeeze, and the Conservative Party is up significantly from 2015. If the LibDems get their vote share up to 18-19%, then - sure - Eastbourne is a fair bet. But at the 15-16% that I'm expecting, I think they'll struggle.0 -
God I hope they do.Scott_P said:0 -
Too right. Especially Stuart. Pathetic.Scott_P said:
Liketpfkar said:Cannot understand the praise being heaped on Douglas Carswell and Gisela Stuart today.
From where I'm standing, they've led the country down a dark path, and are running away before the consequences become known. If they really believe this is right for Britain they should stay and make it happen and take the credit / blame properly.
I'm sure they are both decent constituency MPs, and I've always admired Douglas Carswell's views on democracy (other than the EU) but this comes across as running scared from any accountability for what they've done.0 -
So what sort of contest do people want? One winnable by corbyn obv but what specific format meets that criterion? Scissors stone paper perhaps, with the option to extend to best of 3 after he inevitably cocks up the first round.Scott_P said:0 -
You concede three. The jury is out on the fourth ....TheScreamingEagles said:
Oi. My knowledge of history is da best on pb if not the world.JackW said:
We All Know :TheScreamingEagles said:For those who like to plan accordingly.
Mike's major holiday begins 30th of June till the middle of July.
We all know what happens when I'm guest editor.
Bad Puns .... Worse History Information .... Shocking Musical References .....Terrible Fashion Advice
0 -
Indeed. TSE is truly a funky gibbon.TheScreamingEagles said:
Oi. My knowledge of history is da best on pb if not the world.JackW said:
We All Know :TheScreamingEagles said:For those who like to plan accordingly.
Mike's major holiday begins 30th of June till the middle of July.
We all know what happens when I'm guest editor.
Bad Puns .... Worse History Information .... Shocking Musical References .....Terrible Fashion Advice0 -
So? Mr Daisley calls it as he sees it. Not something a Nat usually argues......calum said:0 -
There have been:FrancisUrquhart said:
I think I would prefer there was some proper clinical trials. For most modern treatments in order to get NCE approval the barrier is sensibly set to require a certain level of benefit.foxinsoxuk said:
ECT antedates modern clinical trials, so there is thin evidence, but abscence of evidence is not the same as abscence of effect.FrancisUrquhart said:
"it is universally acknowledged that it can work when nothing else does."Ishmael_Z said:
You shouldn't have been if you are talking about ect for depression; it is universally acknowledged that it can work when nothing else does.FrancisUrquhart said:
I amazed to read in the Gruadian the other day the NHS is increasingly using electric shock treatment.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is he the homeopathy nutter?rcs1000 said:
Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.foxinsoxuk said:Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.
Lots of strong second places to build on too.
It also is not perhaps as you imagine it, it isn't like the beginning of a Frankenstein film with the patient giving off blue sparks.
That isn't what the Gruadian claimed. They said no established benefits.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/185805590 -
One underconsidered aspect of all this is that if the Conservatives win, there'll likely be another reshuffle.rottenborough said:
Gove to NHS after election? He'll sort it all out...DecrepitJohnL said:
Practising for when Jeremy Hunt has his appendix out?FrancisUrquhart said:
I amazed to read in the Gruadian the other day the NHS is increasingly using electric shock treatment.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is he the homeopathy nutter?rcs1000 said:
Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.foxinsoxuk said:Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.
Lots of strong second places to build on too.0 -
@WillBLC: @PickardJE May at PMQs (19/04): "Free press underpins our democracy"
May campaigning (20/04): "Sorry no press allowed"
#GeneralElection #GE2017
Too frit to debate other leaders. Too frit to face the press.0 -
You are also a wild optimist. I'll take your £10 too.IanB2 said:
You can put me down for £10 if you are opening a book?rcs1000 said:
You want £50 at 10-1 on the LibDem's winning Vauxhall?TheScreamingEagles said:
Can I have £50 on that?rcs1000 said:
Vauxhall was 80.7% Remain according to Hanretty. The LibDems start at 6.9%, 43% behind Ms Hoey.williamglenn said:
A target for the London Lib Dem Remain focused campaign to aim at.TheScreamingEagles said:Kate Hoey standing again in Vauxhall.
Mind you, if* they could pick up half the Remain vote, they'd be in with a chance.
I'll offer you 10-1 if you want.
* You can't see it, but that's a very big if.
Sure, I'll take your money.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm no fan of Mrs May but this is bollocks. Lots of PMs call early elections.
twitter.com/undefined/status/854731569860403200
And one, famously, didn't.......0 -
Running and hiding will be order of the day.Scott_P said:0 -
FPT
Reference the Independent story, it will be truly hilarious if Corbyn refuses to resign after reducing Labour to a rump of (say) 150.
0 -
Can I have a tenner too if you're that confident?rcs1000 said:
You are also a wild optimist. I'll take your £10 too.IanB2 said:
You can put me down for £10 if you are opening a book?rcs1000 said:
You want £50 at 10-1 on the LibDem's winning Vauxhall?TheScreamingEagles said:
Can I have £50 on that?rcs1000 said:
Vauxhall was 80.7% Remain according to Hanretty. The LibDems start at 6.9%, 43% behind Ms Hoey.williamglenn said:
A target for the London Lib Dem Remain focused campaign to aim at.TheScreamingEagles said:Kate Hoey standing again in Vauxhall.
Mind you, if* they could pick up half the Remain vote, they'd be in with a chance.
I'll offer you 10-1 if you want.
* You can't see it, but that's a very big if.
Sure, I'll take your money.0 -
Ok, done. We have each other's emails on record.rcs1000 said:
You are also a wild optimist. I'll take your £10 too.IanB2 said:
You can put me down for £10 if you are opening a book?rcs1000 said:
You want £50 at 10-1 on the LibDem's winning Vauxhall?TheScreamingEagles said:
Can I have £50 on that?rcs1000 said:
Vauxhall was 80.7% Remain according to Hanretty. The LibDems start at 6.9%, 43% behind Ms Hoey.williamglenn said:
A target for the London Lib Dem Remain focused campaign to aim at.TheScreamingEagles said:Kate Hoey standing again in Vauxhall.
Mind you, if* they could pick up half the Remain vote, they'd be in with a chance.
I'll offer you 10-1 if you want.
* You can't see it, but that's a very big if.
Sure, I'll take your money.0 -
Maybe Nicola can give her some pointers...malcolmg said:Running and hiding will be order of the day.
The SNP leader recently made a taxpayer-funded trip to the US. It was a lavish affair in which she posed with Hillary Clinton,spoke at the UN and Stanford and pressed all the right progressive buttons for a centre-left audience back home.
There were secret meetings that Sturgeon’s public relations handlers – paid for by the taxpayer – were less keen to publicise, however.
I understand that those meetings were with Blackrock, the finance giant which coincidentally pays George Osborne over £600,000 a year for one day’s work per week. She also held a meeting with the vice-chairman of Morgan Stanley, I’m told.
Now, of course she should meet senior financiers, and a trip with Scotland’s Aberdeen Asset Management was highlighted online at the time. What is intriguing is that these other Wall Street meetings with financial service companies were not. It is almost as though they don’t quite fit with Sturgeon’s progressive image aimed at her left of centre base in the West of Scotland.
The First Minister’s spokesman would not confirm or deny the meetings to place, saying only that there were meetings with “stakeholders” that were “not media-facing.”
Not media-facing! What a euphemism.
https://reaction.life/nicola-sturgeon-secret-wall-street-meetings-blackrock-morgan-stanley/0 -
My recollection of June 1983 was the election was called the Monday after the local election results in early May. I presume had something unexpected happened, the Conservatives could have held back but it was pretty much assumed the election would be called if the local elections were as strong for the Conservatives as the polls suggested (which they were).rottenborough said:
Not a surprise really. God alone knows why this has to be seven weeks, or is it do with getting FTPA vote through?Scott_P said:
Same happened in 1987 as well.
0 -
Me too whispered the quiet church mouse. (£10)rcs1000 said:
You are also a wild optimist. I'll take your £10 too.IanB2 said:
You can put me down for £10 if you are opening a book?rcs1000 said:
You want £50 at 10-1 on the LibDem's winning Vauxhall?TheScreamingEagles said:
Can I have £50 on that?rcs1000 said:
Vauxhall was 80.7% Remain according to Hanretty. The LibDems start at 6.9%, 43% behind Ms Hoey.williamglenn said:
A target for the London Lib Dem Remain focused campaign to aim at.TheScreamingEagles said:Kate Hoey standing again in Vauxhall.
Mind you, if* they could pick up half the Remain vote, they'd be in with a chance.
I'll offer you 10-1 if you want.
* You can't see it, but that's a very big if.
Sure, I'll take your money.0 -
Dear god, can you find anything more boring than the diahorrea emitted by that bloated Tory windbag loserCarlottaVance said:0 -
Who was the last PM with a working majority who called a general election three years early ?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm no fan of Mrs May but this is bollocks. Lots of PMs call early elections.
https://twitter.com/undefined/status/8547315698604032000 -
Certainly a high UKIP 2015 vote is a factor of comfort to the Tories in seats like Eastbourne.rcs1000 said:
OK. Let's look at Labour seats where the LDs are less than 20% behind:
Cambridge (26.5% Leave)
Burnley (66.7%)
Bermondsey & Old Southwark (27.0%)
Cardiff Central (30.4%)
Birmingham Yardley (61.3%)
Bristol West (20.4%)
Horney & Wood Green (18.5%)
That's only SEVEN seats where the LDs are less than 20% behind a winning Labour Party. Five are good targets, the other two are big Leave areas where the 'overthrow the referendum' policy is unlikely to be a vote winner.
Eastbourne was 57.6% Leave. Could it go LibDem? Sure. There's a strong local presence, etc. But there's a big UKIP vote for the Tories to squeeze, and the Conservative Party is up significantly from 2015. If the LibDems get their vote share up to 18-19%, then - sure - Eastbourne is a fair bet. But at the 15-16% that I'm expecting, I think they'll struggle.
0 -
Hard to believe a party leader would stay after such an appalling electoral defeat. But while there’s still the odd Blairite MP clinging on after GE2017, Corbyn will feel it his duty to lose the lot.NeilVW said:FPT
Reference the Independent story, it will be truly hilarious if Corbyn refuses to resign after reducing Labour to a rump of (say) 150.0 -
I think you mean it will never happen, toadies onlyCarlottaVance said:
PM talking to voters shocker! It will never do!Scott_P said:0 -
Yes, of course.williamglenn said:
Can I have a tenner too if you're that confident?rcs1000 said:
You are also a wild optimist. I'll take your £10 too.IanB2 said:
You can put me down for £10 if you are opening a book?rcs1000 said:
You want £50 at 10-1 on the LibDem's winning Vauxhall?TheScreamingEagles said:
Can I have £50 on that?rcs1000 said:
Vauxhall was 80.7% Remain according to Hanretty. The LibDems start at 6.9%, 43% behind Ms Hoey.williamglenn said:
A target for the London Lib Dem Remain focused campaign to aim at.TheScreamingEagles said:Kate Hoey standing again in Vauxhall.
Mind you, if* they could pick up half the Remain vote, they'd be in with a chance.
I'll offer you 10-1 if you want.
* You can't see it, but that's a very big if.
Sure, I'll take your money.0 -
Apart from the fact she did a radio interview with a BBC journalist yesterday.Scott_P said:@WillBLC: @PickardJE May at PMQs (19/04): "Free press underpins our democracy"
May campaigning (20/04): "Sorry no press allowed"
#GeneralElection #GE2017
Too frit to debate other leaders. Too frit to face the press.0 -
Brown bottled it - TM saw her window of opportunity and grabbed it. That's politicsJackW said:
Who was the last PM with a working majority who called a general election three years early ?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm no fan of Mrs May but this is bollocks. Lots of PMs call early elections.
https://twitter.com/undefined/status/8547315698604032000 -
Your posts?malcolmg said:
Dear god, can you find anything more boring than the diahorrea emitted by that bloated Tory windbag loserCarlottaVance said:0 -
Before the campaign started. And your point is?numbertwelve said:Apart from the fact she did a radio interview with a BBC journalist yesterday.
0 -
Depends what you mean by 'working majority' TMay's majority is smaller than Major's after 1992 and that wasn't a working one. Wilson called one in 1966 and Attlee in 1951, both of whom had majorities only fractionally smaller than May's.JackW said:
Who was the last PM with a working majority who called a general election three years early ?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm no fan of Mrs May but this is bollocks. Lots of PMs call early elections.
https://twitter.com/undefined/status/854731569860403200
More recently, Gordon Brown very nearly called an election at about the same point in the parliament and for much the same reason: to win his own mandate and to capitalise on the polls.0 -
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-20/venezuela-seizes-general-motors-car-plant
Meanwhile... in Jezza's blueprint for the UK..0 -
Are they still suffering bog roll shortages? I think I might head to CostCo and buy up their supply just in case.Slackbladder said:http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-20/venezuela-seizes-general-motors-car-plant
Meanwhile... in Jezza's blueprint for the UK..0 -
Plenty of case series like that, but few high quality trials with proper controls etc.rottenborough said:
There have been:FrancisUrquhart said:
I think I would prefer there was some proper clinical trials. For most modern treatments in order to get NCE approval the barrier is sensibly set to require a certain level of benefit.foxinsoxuk said:
ECT antedates modern clinical trials, so there is thin evidence, but abscence of evidence is not the same as abscence of effect.FrancisUrquhart said:
"it is universally acknowledged that it can work when nothing else does."Ishmael_Z said:
You shouldn't have been if you are talking about ect for depression; it is universally acknowledged that it can work when nothing else does.FrancisUrquhart said:
I amazed to read in the Gruadian the other day the NHS is increasingly using electric shock treatment.Richard_Tyndall said:
Is he the homeopathy nutter?rcs1000 said:
Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.foxinsoxuk said:Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.
Lots of strong second places to build on too.
It also is not perhaps as you imagine it, it isn't like the beginning of a Frankenstein film with the patient giving off blue sparks.
That isn't what the Gruadian claimed. They said no established benefits.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/185805590 -
Harold Wilson. 1966JackW said:
Who was the last PM with a working majority who called a general election three years early ?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm no fan of Mrs May but this is bollocks. Lots of PMs call early elections.
https://twitter.com/undefined/status/8547315698604032000 -
How is believing in a free press and not talking to the aforementioned free press a volte-face?Scott_P said:@WillBLC: @PickardJE May at PMQs (19/04): "Free press underpins our democracy"
May campaigning (20/04): "Sorry no press allowed"
#GeneralElection #GE2017
Too frit to debate other leaders. Too frit to face the press.
Bunch of sulking journos.
[she does need to get talk to them more than she is, but the comparison being drawn in that tweet is just BS]0 -
I agree. This wsa an overtly political move, poorly justified, and I am not a fan of May particularly, but that's bollocks.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm no fan of Mrs May but this is bollocks. Lots of PMs call early elections.
https://twitter.com/undefined/status/854731569860403200
0 -
Yes. They should be about the same odds as a Pirate to win a seat. (Not that I don't fully expect us to be in contention in every seat etc. etc.)Morris_Dancer said:Just an aside, but the Women's Equality Party to win a seat (Ladbrokes) has fallen from 51 to 21.
'tis madness, surely?0 -
Amusing joke about Liz Truss from her time at DEFRA:ToryJim said:
Absolutely better than Truss. She is a disgrace.TheScreamingEagles said:
He will always be on my naughty list, but I'd love see him back as Justice Secretary.MTimT said:
Does this open the way for his rehabilitation in the Cabinet post-election, or is he still going to be on May's naughty list?TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.AlastairMeeks said:Is Michael Gove standing again?
'All her experience of farming is that she was once ploughed by a Field'.0 -
He'd probably let slip that he always goes for paper.Ishmael_Z said:
So what sort of contest do people want? One winnable by corbyn obv but what specific format meets that criterion? Scissors stone paper perhaps, with the option to extend to best of 3 after he inevitably cocks up the first round.Scott_P said:0 -
You have to be a parody, nobody even if living down south can be that stupid unless it is Willie posting it himself.HYUFD said:
Rennie sensibly painting the LDs as the real pro EU party unlike the SNP which should help them win seats like Edinburgh WestCarlottaVance said:0 -
splitting my sides, what a wag.CarlottaVance said:
Your posts?malcolmg said:
Dear god, can you find anything more boring than the diahorrea emitted by that bloated Tory windbag loserCarlottaVance said:0
