Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The French Presidential polls edge back a touch to Macron who

245678

Comments

  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Politicians avoiding the press goes at least back to 2005. I remember a Blair-Brown little speech type event where, afterwards, assorted applauding party hacks formed a ring around them, preventing the media asking questions.

    Not saying it's a good thing, but it's certainly not a new thing.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,783
    Scott_P said:

    PM talking to voters hand picked Tory supporters shocker! It will never do!

    Fixed it for you
    They vote too - and indeed are more likely to vote.......
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LibDem punters.

    Remember this:

    There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.

    Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.

    Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.

    So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.

    Let's assume every possible Conservative seats. That's another seven (including Lewes).

    Let's also give them all four of the vaguely possible SNP seats.

    And let's add another two seats which the LibDems remarkably pull out of the hat.

    I think any normal person would agree that these are pretty bullish forecasts for the LibDems. And - assuming they keep all their current seats - that puts them on... (drumroll)...

    28 seats.

    And that's in a "best of all possible worlds" scenario**.

    Much more likely they manage three of the five labour seats, two of the Conservative ones, and two SNP ones. We'll give them one for good luck, and assume they hold Richmond and their other seats.

    That gets you to 18. And I'm still probably a bit bullish. My range on their seats would be 14 to 18.

    * Lewes almost makes the cut, so that's a possible for them too.
    ** Assuming no total Labour meltdown.

    Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.

    Lots of strong second places to build on too.
    Are you up for the Battle of Bosworth :) ?
    Yep. It is the best local target.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,969
    rcs1000 said:

    Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.

    Lots of strong second places to build on too.

    Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.
    Is he the homeopathy nutter?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,783

    rcs1000 said:

    Also Tories surest to vote Tory - Lib dems the least confident:

    Vote for party: Definitely / Probably / Possibly

    Con: 74 / 18 / 7
    Lab: 51 / 29 / 16
    LibD; 31 / 33 / 33
    UKIP: 46 / 31 / 15

    Those Lob Dem numbers....'mile wide and inch deep' springs to mind......chortle....

    LibDem always have the lowest certainty to vote, though. Was true in 2001 and 2005 too when they outperformed expectations.
    Yes, LDs are basically reasonable people, and open to tactical voting. That Lab vote looks squeezable too.
    And UKIP......
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2017

    rcs1000 said:

    Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.

    Lots of strong second places to build on too.

    Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.
    Is he the homeopathy nutter?
    I amazed to read in the Gruadian the other day the NHS is increasingly using electric shock treatment.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031

    rcs1000 said:

    Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.

    Lots of strong second places to build on too.

    Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.
    Is he the homeopathy nutter?
    Yes.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. 1000, presumably he'll be doing very little campaigning, to increase its effectiveness.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    rcs1000 said:

    Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.

    Lots of strong second places to build on too.

    Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.
    Is he the homeopathy nutter?
    Astrology too:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/25/astrology-help-nhs-claim-conservative-mp-david-tredinnick
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    rcs1000 said:

    Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.

    Lots of strong second places to build on too.

    Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.
    Is he the homeopathy nutter?
    I amazed to read in the Gruadian the other day the NHS is increasingly using electric shock treatment.
    Practising for when Jeremy Hunt has his appendix out?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    Mr. 1000, presumably he'll be doing very little campaigning, to increase its effectiveness.

    Just in Micro-doses...
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031

    Mr. 1000, presumably he'll be doing very little campaigning, to increase its effectiveness.

    :smile:

    He also asked a question in the House of Commons about that well known drug 'Cake'.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIAJemmO-bg
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    For those who like to plan accordingly.

    Mike's major holiday begins 30th of June till the middle of July.

    We all know what happens when I'm guest editor.

    We All Know :

    Bad Puns .... Worse History Information .... Shocking Musical References .....Terrible Fashion Advice

    :smiley:

  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277
    The Prince over the Water is available at 2 on BF to win a seat.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. 1000, *sighs*
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    rcs1000 said:

    Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.

    Lots of strong second places to build on too.

    Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.
    Is he the homeopathy nutter?
    I amazed to read in the Gruadian the other day the NHS is increasingly using electric shock treatment.
    You shouldn't have been if you are talking about ect for depression​; it is universally acknowledged that it can work when nothing else does.

    It also is not perhaps as you imagine it, it isn't like the beginning of a Frankenstein film with the patient giving off blue sparks.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,969

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LibDem punters.

    Remember this:

    There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.

    Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.

    Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.

    So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.

    Let's assume every possible Conservative seats. That's another seven (including Lewes).

    Let's also give them all four of the vaguely possible SNP seats.

    And let's add another two seats which the LibDems remarkably pull out of the hat.

    I think any normal person would agree that these are pretty bullish forecasts for the LibDems. And - assuming they keep all their current seats - that puts them on... (drumroll)...

    28 seats.

    And that's in a "best of all possible worlds" scenario**.

    Much more likely they manage three of the five labour seats, two of the Conservative ones, and two SNP ones. We'll give them one for good luck, and assume they hold Richmond and their other seats.

    That gets you to 18. And I'm still probably a bit bullish. My range on their seats would be 14 to 18.

    * Lewes almost makes the cut, so that's a possible for them too.
    ** Assuming no total Labour meltdown.

    Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.

    Lots of strong second places to build on too.
    Are you up for the Battle of Bosworth :) ?
    Yep. It is the best local target.
    Not a Lib Dem fan obviously but even I would be glad to see you win if it means getting rid of Tredinnick.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,095
    edited April 2017

    For those who like to plan accordingly.

    Mike's major holiday begins 30th of June till the middle of July.

    We all know what happens when I'm guest editor.

    Sod all then I think, UK and French elections over and Brexit talks not yet in full swing though could be a Labour leadership challenge I suppose
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Ishmael_Z said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.

    Lots of strong second places to build on too.

    Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.
    Is he the homeopathy nutter?
    I amazed to read in the Gruadian the other day the NHS is increasingly using electric shock treatment.
    You shouldn't have been if you are talking about ect for depression​; it is universally acknowledged that it can work when nothing else does.

    It also is not perhaps as you imagine it, it isn't like the beginning of a Frankenstein film with the patient giving off blue sparks.
    "it is universally acknowledged that it can work when nothing else does."

    That isn't what the Gruadian claimed. They said no established benefits.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277

    rcs1000 said:

    Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.

    Lots of strong second places to build on too.

    Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.
    Is he the homeopathy nutter?
    I amazed to read in the Gruadian the other day the NHS is increasingly using electric shock treatment.
    Practising for when Jeremy Hunt has his appendix out?
    Gove to NHS after election? He'll sort it all out...
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,951

    The Prince over the Water is available at 2 on BF to win a seat.

    To lay ????????????
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,095
    Rennie sensibly painting the LDs as the real pro EU party unlike the SNP which should help them win seats like Edinburgh West
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited April 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    LibDem punters.

    Remember this:

    There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.

    Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.

    Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.

    So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.
    .... [snip]

    I think your logic is faulty here. If I've understood correctly, you're assuming that the LibDems won't win back any seats unless there was a higher-than average Remain vote. I don't think that's at all a valid assumption; the Remain/Leave factor is only one of the relevant considerations. For example, you mention Lewes but not Eastbourne. These are local to me, so I have a reasonable feel for them, and I reckon Eastbourne is probably the more vulnerable to a LibDem regain. Why? Because the 2015 baseline for Lewes was flattered by the huge personal vote for Norman Baker, who is not re-standing. In Eastbourne, in contrast, Stephen Lloyd is re-standing - and he'll be a formidable opponent for Caroline Ansell.
  • Options
    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    ToryJim said:
    He's awful. Turned into a toddler stamping his feet during the campaign. Refused to go on French Paxman (Jean Jacques Bourdin) unlike the 10 other candidates (even Le Pen was on the other day, and she actually does get overtly negative treatment) because he didn't want to have a hard time.

    If he were to scrape through to R2 against Le Pen, I really struggle to see how he could rally the left to support him at this point.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Very briefly did a little on shock therapy at university. I believe the view was that it was quite extreme, but it could prove effective.
  • Options
    JackW said:

    For those who like to plan accordingly.

    Mike's major holiday begins 30th of June till the middle of July.

    We all know what happens when I'm guest editor.

    We All Know :

    Bad Puns .... Worse History Information .... Shocking Musical References .....Terrible Fashion Advice

    :smiley:

    Oi. My knowledge of history is da best on pb if not the world.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277
    HYUFD said:

    For those who like to plan accordingly.

    Mike's major holiday begins 30th of June till the middle of July.

    We all know what happens when I'm guest editor.

    Sod all then I think, UK and French elections over and Brexit talks not yet in full swing though could be a Labour leadership challenge I suppose
    GE held over because of massive outbreak of bird flu?
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Here's what NICE guidelines say on the efficacy of ECT:

    https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ta59
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277
    Pulpstar said:

    The Prince over the Water is available at 2 on BF to win a seat.

    To lay ????????????
    zilch. Not a single £ matched on this new market.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,951

    rcs1000 said:

    LibDem punters.

    Remember this:

    There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.

    Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.

    Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.

    So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.
    .... [snip]

    I think your logic is faulty here. If I've understood correctly, you're assuming that the LibDems won't win back any seats unless there was a higher-than average Remain vote. I don't think that's at all a valid assumption; the Remain/Leave factor is only one of the relevant considerations. For example, you mention Lewes but not Eastbourne. These are local to me, so I have a reasonable feel for them, and I reckon Eastbourne is probably the more vulnerable to a LibDem regain. Why? Because the 2015 baseline for Lewes was flattered by the huge personal vote for Norman Baker, who is not re-standing. In Eastbourne, in contrast, Stephen Lloyd is re-standing - and he'll be a formidable opponent for Caroline Ansell.
    Yeah but a Blundell is standing in Lewes.

    Never underestimate a Blundell :)
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031

    Very briefly did a little on shock therapy at university. I believe the view was that it was quite extreme, but it could prove effective.

    I think people are confusing two different things:

    1. Electro shock therapy for mental illness, which is extreme but effective
    2. Electro shock treatment of pain, which is probably just a placebo.
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    It is recommended that electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) is used only to achieve rapid and short-term improvement of severe symptoms after an adequate trial of other treatment options has proven ineffective and/or when the condition is considered to be potentially life-threatening, in individuals with:

    catatonia

    a prolonged or severe manic episode.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.

    Lots of strong second places to build on too.

    Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.
    Is he the homeopathy nutter?
    I amazed to read in the Gruadian the other day the NHS is increasingly using electric shock treatment.
    You shouldn't have been if you are talking about ect for depression​; it is universally acknowledged that it can work when nothing else does.

    It also is not perhaps as you imagine it, it isn't like the beginning of a Frankenstein film with the patient giving off blue sparks.
    "it is universally acknowledged that it can work when nothing else does."

    That isn't what the Gruadian claimed. They said no established benefits.
    ECT antedates modern clinical trials, so there is thin evidence, but abscence of evidence is not the same as abscence of effect.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277
    You can lay Nigel for 500.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,106

    Pulpstar said:

    The Prince over the Water is available at 2 on BF to win a seat.

    To lay ????????????
    zilch. Not a single £ matched on this new market.
    When will the Labour candidates for MPs who are standing down be announced?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Mr. 1000, I've never heard of the latter. I have heard, and was referring to, electro-shock treatment for depression.

    Mr. Eagles, I see you're suffering delusions of historical knowledge again.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.

    Lots of strong second places to build on too.

    Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.
    Is he the homeopathy nutter?
    I amazed to read in the Gruadian the other day the NHS is increasingly using electric shock treatment.
    You shouldn't have been if you are talking about ect for depression​; it is universally acknowledged that it can work when nothing else does.

    It also is not perhaps as you imagine it, it isn't like the beginning of a Frankenstein film with the patient giving off blue sparks.
    "it is universally acknowledged that it can work when nothing else does."

    That isn't what the Gruadian claimed. They said no established benefits.
    The page i am seeing https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/apr/17/electroconvulsive-therapy-on-rise-england-ect-nhs
    cites a recent study saying effective in 91% of cases. It says no established explanation for why it works which is not the same thing.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,314
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Kate Hoey standing again in Vauxhall.

    A target for the London Lib Dem Remain focused campaign to aim at.
    Vauxhall was 80.7% Remain according to Hanretty. The LibDems start at 6.9%, 43% behind Ms Hoey.

    Mind you, if* they could pick up half the Remain vote, they'd be in with a chance.

    I'll offer you 10-1 if you want.

    * You can't see it, but that's a very big if.
    Can I have £50 on that?
    You want £50 at 10-1 on the LibDem's winning Vauxhall?

    Sure, I'll take your money.
    You can put me down for £10 if you are opening a book?
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Pulpstar said:

    Yeah but a Blundell is standing in Lewes.

    Never underestimate a Blundell :)

    One of yours?
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    It is recommended that electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) is used only to achieve rapid and short-term improvement of severe symptoms after an adequate trial of other treatment options has proven ineffective and/or when the condition is considered to be potentially life-threatening, in individuals with:

    catatonia

    a prolonged or severe manic episode.

    I don't think you should post details of TSE's "episode" and treatment in the hours after Osborne announced he was standing down yesterday afternoon.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277
    Scott_P said:
    Not a surprise really. God alone knows why this has to be seven weeks, or is it do with getting FTPA vote through?
  • Options
    ‪I'm no fan of Mrs May but this is bollocks. Lots of PMs call early elections. ‬

    https://twitter.com/undefined/status/854731569860403200
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,951

    You can lay Nigel for 500.

    Pennies and bulldozers spring to mind.
  • Options
    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    And for depression NICE says:

    1.10.4 Electroconvulsive therapy (ECT)

    1.10.4.1 Consider ECT for acute treatment of severe depression that is life‑threatening and when a rapid response is required, or when other treatments have failed.

    1.10.4.2 Do not use ECT routinely for people with moderate depression but consider it if their depression has not responded to multiple drug treatments and psychological treatment.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.

    Lots of strong second places to build on too.

    Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.
    Is he the homeopathy nutter?
    I amazed to read in the Gruadian the other day the NHS is increasingly using electric shock treatment.
    You shouldn't have been if you are talking about ect for depression​; it is universally acknowledged that it can work when nothing else does.

    It also is not perhaps as you imagine it, it isn't like the beginning of a Frankenstein film with the patient giving off blue sparks.
    "it is universally acknowledged that it can work when nothing else does."

    That isn't what the Gruadian claimed. They said no established benefits.
    ECT antedates modern clinical trials, so there is thin evidence, but abscence of evidence is not the same as abscence of effect.
    I think I would prefer there was some proper clinical trials. For most modern treatments in order to get NCE approval the barrier is sensibly set to require a certain level of benefit.
  • Options
    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,548
    Cannot understand the praise being heaped on Douglas Carswell and Gisela Stuart today.

    From where I'm standing, they've led the country down a dark path, and are running away before the consequences become known. If they really believe this is right for Britain they should stay and make it happen and take the credit / blame properly.

    I'm sure they are both decent constituency MPs, and I've always admired Douglas Carswell's views on democracy (other than the EU) but this comes across as running scared from any accountability for what they've done.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,951

    Pulpstar said:

    Yeah but a Blundell is standing in Lewes.

    Never underestimate a Blundell :)

    One of yours?
    Don't think so, although we might be 7th cousins or some such of course.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    tpfkar said:

    Cannot understand the praise being heaped on Douglas Carswell and Gisela Stuart today.

    From where I'm standing, they've led the country down a dark path, and are running away before the consequences become known. If they really believe this is right for Britain they should stay and make it happen and take the credit / blame properly.

    I'm sure they are both decent constituency MPs, and I've always admired Douglas Carswell's views on democracy (other than the EU) but this comes across as running scared from any accountability for what they've done.

    Like
  • Options

    Scott_P said:
    Not a surprise really. God alone knows why this has to be seven weeks, or is it do with getting FTPA vote through?
    That and they need about six weeks to tell the electorate about Jezza's back story. Four weeks wasn't enough.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    Scott_P said:
    Not a surprise really. God alone knows why this has to be seven weeks, or is it do with getting FTPA vote through?
    The latter, I think. Had Corbyn not been so co-operative and had May chosen to go down the VoNC route, it would have been a fairly tight timescale to hit a June 8 election.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    You can lay Nigel for 500.

    It that the minimum that certain ladies charge for horizontal exercise with UKIP's finest ?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,997
    Just an aside, but the Women's Equality Party to win a seat (Ladbrokes) has fallen from 51 to 21.

    'tis madness, surely?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277

    Scott_P said:
    Not a surprise really. God alone knows why this has to be seven weeks, or is it do with getting FTPA vote through?
    That and they need about six weeks to tell the electorate about Jezza's back story. Four weeks wasn't enough.
    Why bother? Let's just get on with the slaughter.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031

    rcs1000 said:

    LibDem punters.

    Remember this:

    There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.

    Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.

    Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.

    So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.
    .... [snip]

    I think your logic is faulty here. If I've understood correctly, you're assuming that the LibDems won't win back any seats unless there was a higher-than average Remain vote. I don't think that's at all a valid assumption; the Remain/Leave factor is only one of the relevant considerations. For example, you mention Lewes but not Eastbourne. These are local to me, so I have a reasonable feel for them, and I reckon Eastbourne is probably the more vulnerable to a LibDem regain. Why? Because the 2015 baseline for Lewes was flattered by the huge personal vote for Norman Baker, who is not re-standing. In Eastbourne, in contrast, Stephen Lloyd is re-standing - and he'll be a formidable opponent for Caroline Ansell.
    OK. Let's look at Labour seats where the LDs are less than 20% behind:

    Cambridge (26.5% Leave)
    Burnley (66.7%)
    Bermondsey & Old Southwark (27.0%)
    Cardiff Central (30.4%)
    Birmingham Yardley (61.3%)
    Bristol West (20.4%)
    Horney & Wood Green (18.5%)

    That's only SEVEN seats where the LDs are less than 20% behind a winning Labour Party. Five are good targets, the other two are big Leave areas where the 'overthrow the referendum' policy is unlikely to be a vote winner.

    Eastbourne was 57.6% Leave. Could it go LibDem? Sure. There's a strong local presence, etc. But there's a big UKIP vote for the Tories to squeeze, and the Conservative Party is up significantly from 2015. If the LibDems get their vote share up to 18-19%, then - sure - Eastbourne is a fair bet. But at the 15-16% that I'm expecting, I think they'll struggle.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277
    Scott_P said:

    tpfkar said:

    Cannot understand the praise being heaped on Douglas Carswell and Gisela Stuart today.

    From where I'm standing, they've led the country down a dark path, and are running away before the consequences become known. If they really believe this is right for Britain they should stay and make it happen and take the credit / blame properly.

    I'm sure they are both decent constituency MPs, and I've always admired Douglas Carswell's views on democracy (other than the EU) but this comes across as running scared from any accountability for what they've done.

    Like
    Too right. Especially Stuart. Pathetic.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scott_P said:
    So what sort of contest do people want? One winnable by corbyn obv but what specific format meets that criterion? Scissors stone paper perhaps, with the option to extend to best of 3 after he inevitably cocks up the first round.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    For those who like to plan accordingly.

    Mike's major holiday begins 30th of June till the middle of July.

    We all know what happens when I'm guest editor.

    We All Know :

    Bad Puns .... Worse History Information .... Shocking Musical References .....Terrible Fashion Advice

    :smiley:

    Oi. My knowledge of history is da best on pb if not the world.
    You concede three. The jury is out on the fourth .... :sunglasses:
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    JackW said:

    For those who like to plan accordingly.

    Mike's major holiday begins 30th of June till the middle of July.

    We all know what happens when I'm guest editor.

    We All Know :

    Bad Puns .... Worse History Information .... Shocking Musical References .....Terrible Fashion Advice

    :smiley:

    Oi. My knowledge of history is da best on pb if not the world.
    Indeed. TSE is truly a funky gibbon.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.

    Lots of strong second places to build on too.

    Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.
    Is he the homeopathy nutter?
    I amazed to read in the Gruadian the other day the NHS is increasingly using electric shock treatment.
    You shouldn't have been if you are talking about ect for depression​; it is universally acknowledged that it can work when nothing else does.

    It also is not perhaps as you imagine it, it isn't like the beginning of a Frankenstein film with the patient giving off blue sparks.
    "it is universally acknowledged that it can work when nothing else does."

    That isn't what the Gruadian claimed. They said no established benefits.
    ECT antedates modern clinical trials, so there is thin evidence, but abscence of evidence is not the same as abscence of effect.
    I think I would prefer there was some proper clinical trials. For most modern treatments in order to get NCE approval the barrier is sensibly set to require a certain level of benefit.
    There have been:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18580559
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @WillBLC: @PickardJE May at PMQs (19/04): "Free press underpins our democracy"
    May campaigning (20/04): "Sorry no press allowed"
    #GeneralElection #GE2017

    Too frit to debate other leaders. Too frit to face the press.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    rcs1000 said:

    Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.

    Lots of strong second places to build on too.

    Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.
    Is he the homeopathy nutter?
    I amazed to read in the Gruadian the other day the NHS is increasingly using electric shock treatment.
    Practising for when Jeremy Hunt has his appendix out?
    Gove to NHS after election? He'll sort it all out...
    One underconsidered aspect of all this is that if the Conservatives win, there'll likely be another reshuffle.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Kate Hoey standing again in Vauxhall.

    A target for the London Lib Dem Remain focused campaign to aim at.
    Vauxhall was 80.7% Remain according to Hanretty. The LibDems start at 6.9%, 43% behind Ms Hoey.

    Mind you, if* they could pick up half the Remain vote, they'd be in with a chance.

    I'll offer you 10-1 if you want.

    * You can't see it, but that's a very big if.
    Can I have £50 on that?
    You want £50 at 10-1 on the LibDem's winning Vauxhall?

    Sure, I'll take your money.
    You can put me down for £10 if you are opening a book?
    You are also a wild optimist. I'll take your £10 too.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,783

    ‪I'm no fan of Mrs May but this is bollocks. Lots of PMs call early elections. ‬

    twitter.com/undefined/status/854731569860403200


    And one, famously, didn't.......
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    Scott_P said:
    Running and hiding will be order of the day.
  • Options
    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 709
    FPT

    Reference the Independent story, it will be truly hilarious if Corbyn refuses to resign after reducing Labour to a rump of (say) 150.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,106
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Kate Hoey standing again in Vauxhall.

    A target for the London Lib Dem Remain focused campaign to aim at.
    Vauxhall was 80.7% Remain according to Hanretty. The LibDems start at 6.9%, 43% behind Ms Hoey.

    Mind you, if* they could pick up half the Remain vote, they'd be in with a chance.

    I'll offer you 10-1 if you want.

    * You can't see it, but that's a very big if.
    Can I have £50 on that?
    You want £50 at 10-1 on the LibDem's winning Vauxhall?

    Sure, I'll take your money.
    You can put me down for £10 if you are opening a book?
    You are also a wild optimist. I'll take your £10 too.
    Can I have a tenner too if you're that confident?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,314
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Kate Hoey standing again in Vauxhall.

    A target for the London Lib Dem Remain focused campaign to aim at.
    Vauxhall was 80.7% Remain according to Hanretty. The LibDems start at 6.9%, 43% behind Ms Hoey.

    Mind you, if* they could pick up half the Remain vote, they'd be in with a chance.

    I'll offer you 10-1 if you want.

    * You can't see it, but that's a very big if.
    Can I have £50 on that?
    You want £50 at 10-1 on the LibDem's winning Vauxhall?

    Sure, I'll take your money.
    You can put me down for £10 if you are opening a book?
    You are also a wild optimist. I'll take your £10 too.
    Ok, done. We have each other's emails on record.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    malcolmg said:

    Running and hiding will be order of the day.

    Maybe Nicola can give her some pointers...

    The SNP leader recently made a taxpayer-funded trip to the US. It was a lavish affair in which she posed with Hillary Clinton,spoke at the UN and Stanford and pressed all the right progressive buttons for a centre-left audience back home.

    There were secret meetings that Sturgeon’s public relations handlers – paid for by the taxpayer – were less keen to publicise, however.

    I understand that those meetings were with Blackrock, the finance giant which coincidentally pays George Osborne over £600,000 a year for one day’s work per week. She also held a meeting with the vice-chairman of Morgan Stanley, I’m told.

    Now, of course she should meet senior financiers, and a trip with Scotland’s Aberdeen Asset Management was highlighted online at the time. What is intriguing is that these other Wall Street meetings with financial service companies were not. It is almost as though they don’t ‎quite fit with Sturgeon’s progressive image aimed at her left of centre base in the West of Scotland.

    The First Minister’s spokesman would not confirm or deny the meetings to place, saying only that there were meetings with “stakeholders” that were “not media-facing.”

    Not media-facing! What a euphemism.


    https://reaction.life/nicola-sturgeon-secret-wall-street-meetings-blackrock-morgan-stanley/
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,877

    Scott_P said:
    Not a surprise really. God alone knows why this has to be seven weeks, or is it do with getting FTPA vote through?
    My recollection of June 1983 was the election was called the Monday after the local election results in early May. I presume had something unexpected happened, the Conservatives could have held back but it was pretty much assumed the election would be called if the local elections were as strong for the Conservatives as the polls suggested (which they were).

    Same happened in 1987 as well.

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,951
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Kate Hoey standing again in Vauxhall.

    A target for the London Lib Dem Remain focused campaign to aim at.
    Vauxhall was 80.7% Remain according to Hanretty. The LibDems start at 6.9%, 43% behind Ms Hoey.

    Mind you, if* they could pick up half the Remain vote, they'd be in with a chance.

    I'll offer you 10-1 if you want.

    * You can't see it, but that's a very big if.
    Can I have £50 on that?
    You want £50 at 10-1 on the LibDem's winning Vauxhall?

    Sure, I'll take your money.
    You can put me down for £10 if you are opening a book?
    You are also a wild optimist. I'll take your £10 too.
    Me too whispered the quiet church mouse. (£10)
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    Dear god, can you find anything more boring than the diahorrea emitted by that bloated Tory windbag loser
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    ‪I'm no fan of Mrs May but this is bollocks. Lots of PMs call early elections. ‬

    https://twitter.com/undefined/status/854731569860403200

    Who was the last PM with a working majority who called a general election three years early ?
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    rcs1000 said:


    OK. Let's look at Labour seats where the LDs are less than 20% behind:

    Cambridge (26.5% Leave)
    Burnley (66.7%)
    Bermondsey & Old Southwark (27.0%)
    Cardiff Central (30.4%)
    Birmingham Yardley (61.3%)
    Bristol West (20.4%)
    Horney & Wood Green (18.5%)

    That's only SEVEN seats where the LDs are less than 20% behind a winning Labour Party. Five are good targets, the other two are big Leave areas where the 'overthrow the referendum' policy is unlikely to be a vote winner.

    Eastbourne was 57.6% Leave. Could it go LibDem? Sure. There's a strong local presence, etc. But there's a big UKIP vote for the Tories to squeeze, and the Conservative Party is up significantly from 2015. If the LibDems get their vote share up to 18-19%, then - sure - Eastbourne is a fair bet. But at the 15-16% that I'm expecting, I think they'll struggle.

    Certainly a high UKIP 2015 vote is a factor of comfort to the Tories in seats like Eastbourne.
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    NeilVW said:

    FPT

    Reference the Independent story, it will be truly hilarious if Corbyn refuses to resign after reducing Labour to a rump of (say) 150.

    Hard to believe a party leader would stay after such an appalling electoral defeat. But while there’s still the odd Blairite MP clinging on after GE2017, Corbyn will feel it his duty to lose the lot.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    edited April 2017

    Scott_P said:
    PM talking to voters shocker! It will never do!
    I think you mean it will never happen, toadies only
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    JackW said:

    Who was the last PM with a working majority who called a general election three years early ?

    But she claimed yesterday Parliament was blocking her, in effect that she didn't have a working majority.

    Bollocks, I know, but...
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Kate Hoey standing again in Vauxhall.

    A target for the London Lib Dem Remain focused campaign to aim at.
    Vauxhall was 80.7% Remain according to Hanretty. The LibDems start at 6.9%, 43% behind Ms Hoey.

    Mind you, if* they could pick up half the Remain vote, they'd be in with a chance.

    I'll offer you 10-1 if you want.

    * You can't see it, but that's a very big if.
    Can I have £50 on that?
    You want £50 at 10-1 on the LibDem's winning Vauxhall?

    Sure, I'll take your money.
    You can put me down for £10 if you are opening a book?
    You are also a wild optimist. I'll take your £10 too.
    Can I have a tenner too if you're that confident?
    Yes, of course.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,488
    Scott_P said:

    @WillBLC: @PickardJE May at PMQs (19/04): "Free press underpins our democracy"
    May campaigning (20/04): "Sorry no press allowed"
    #GeneralElection #GE2017

    Too frit to debate other leaders. Too frit to face the press.

    Apart from the fact she did a radio interview with a BBC journalist yesterday.
  • Options
    JackW said:

    ‪I'm no fan of Mrs May but this is bollocks. Lots of PMs call early elections. ‬

    https://twitter.com/undefined/status/854731569860403200

    Who was the last PM with a working majority who called a general election three years early ?
    Brown bottled it - TM saw her window of opportunity and grabbed it. That's politics
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,783
    malcolmg said:

    Dear god, can you find anything more boring than the diahorrea emitted by that bloated Tory windbag loser
    Your posts?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Apart from the fact she did a radio interview with a BBC journalist yesterday.

    Before the campaign started. And your point is?
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    JackW said:

    ‪I'm no fan of Mrs May but this is bollocks. Lots of PMs call early elections. ‬

    https://twitter.com/undefined/status/854731569860403200

    Who was the last PM with a working majority who called a general election three years early ?
    Depends what you mean by 'working majority' TMay's majority is smaller than Major's after 1992 and that wasn't a working one. Wilson called one in 1966 and Attlee in 1951, both of whom had majorities only fractionally smaller than May's.

    More recently, Gordon Brown very nearly called an election at about the same point in the parliament and for much the same reason: to win his own mandate and to capitalise on the polls.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,711
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Are they still suffering bog roll shortages? I think I might head to CostCo and buy up their supply just in case.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.

    Lots of strong second places to build on too.

    Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.
    Is he the homeopathy nutter?
    I amazed to read in the Gruadian the other day the NHS is increasingly using electric shock treatment.
    You shouldn't have been if you are talking about ect for depression​; it is universally acknowledged that it can work when nothing else does.

    It also is not perhaps as you imagine it, it isn't like the beginning of a Frankenstein film with the patient giving off blue sparks.
    "it is universally acknowledged that it can work when nothing else does."

    That isn't what the Gruadian claimed. They said no established benefits.
    ECT antedates modern clinical trials, so there is thin evidence, but abscence of evidence is not the same as abscence of effect.
    I think I would prefer there was some proper clinical trials. For most modern treatments in order to get NCE approval the barrier is sensibly set to require a certain level of benefit.
    There have been:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18580559
    Plenty of case series like that, but few high quality trials with proper controls etc.
  • Options
    JackW said:

    ‪I'm no fan of Mrs May but this is bollocks. Lots of PMs call early elections. ‬

    https://twitter.com/undefined/status/854731569860403200

    Who was the last PM with a working majority who called a general election three years early ?
    Harold Wilson. 1966
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Scott_P said:

    @WillBLC: @PickardJE May at PMQs (19/04): "Free press underpins our democracy"
    May campaigning (20/04): "Sorry no press allowed"
    #GeneralElection #GE2017

    Too frit to debate other leaders. Too frit to face the press.

    How is believing in a free press and not talking to the aforementioned free press a volte-face?

    Bunch of sulking journos.

    [she does need to get talk to them more than she is, but the comparison being drawn in that tweet is just BS]
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898

    ‪I'm no fan of Mrs May but this is bollocks. Lots of PMs call early elections. ‬

    https://twitter.com/undefined/status/854731569860403200

    I agree. This wsa an overtly political move, poorly justified, and I am not a fan of May particularly, but that's bollocks.
  • Options
    LennonLennon Posts: 1,735

    Just an aside, but the Women's Equality Party to win a seat (Ladbrokes) has fallen from 51 to 21.

    'tis madness, surely?

    Yes. They should be about the same odds as a Pirate to win a seat. (Not that I don't fully expect us to be in contention in every seat etc. etc.)
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,321
    ToryJim said:

    MTimT said:

    Is Michael Gove standing again?

    Yes.
    Does this open the way for his rehabilitation in the Cabinet post-election, or is he still going to be on May's naughty list?
    He will always be on my naughty list, but I'd love see him back as Justice Secretary.
    Absolutely better than Truss. She is a disgrace.
    Amusing joke about Liz Truss from her time at DEFRA:

    'All her experience of farming is that she was once ploughed by a Field'.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Scott_P said:
    So what sort of contest do people want? One winnable by corbyn obv but what specific format meets that criterion? Scissors stone paper perhaps, with the option to extend to best of 3 after he inevitably cocks up the first round.
    He'd probably let slip that he always goes for paper.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    HYUFD said:

    Rennie sensibly painting the LDs as the real pro EU party unlike the SNP which should help them win seats like Edinburgh West
    You have to be a parody, nobody even if living down south can be that stupid unless it is Willie posting it himself.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    malcolmg said:

    Dear god, can you find anything more boring than the diahorrea emitted by that bloated Tory windbag loser
    Your posts?
    splitting my sides, what a wag.
This discussion has been closed.