politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The French Presidential polls edge back a touch to Macron who
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The French Presidential polls edge back a touch to Macron who is now odds-on in the betting once again
Tuesday’s shock announcement by Mrs May that there is to be an early UK General Election has rather overshadowed events in France where the country’s presidential election takes place on Sunday.
Comments
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Feck, I'd forgotten about this.
Big fat reds against Fillon and Le Pen, green elsewhere.
So it's Fillon and Le Pen in the final two then. Nailed on0 -
FPT
I see a new poll in France from Harris (changes from last week):
Macron 25% (+1) Le Pen 22% (NC) Fillon 19% (-1) Melenchon 19% (NC). Another good poll for Macron, but 3% is hardly safe if you assume that he is particularly vulnerable to a polling error.0 -
Carswell not standing0
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https://order-order.com/2017/04/20/corbyn-crowd-boos-and-shouts-down-itv-question/
When do the Trumpian chants of "Lock Em Up" start?0 -
Except it's 6%. He doesn't have to finish first.TheWhiteRabbit said:FPT
I see a new poll in France from Harris (changes from last week):
Macron 25% (+1) Le Pen 22% (NC) Fillon 19% (-1) Melenchon 19% (NC). Another good poll for Macron, but 3% is hardly safe if you assume that he is particularly vulnerable to a polling error.0 -
What will Arron Banks do now?Scott_P said:Carswell not standing
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"Nailed on" is an interesting choice of words over Easter ....TheScreamingEagles said:Feck, I'd forgotten about this.
Big fat reds against Fillon and Le Pen, green elsewhere.
So it's Fillon and Le Pen in the final two then. Nailed on
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Lose to the Tories.Slackbladder said:
What will Arron Banks do now?Scott_P said:Carswell not standing
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Off-topic, but surely too good to miss: PP and Betfair Sports go 1.44 on Con to HOLD (yes, you read that correctly) Derby North - with a 14.6% UKIP vote to squeeze to boot..0
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Mr. Eagles, think you'll be fine.
Macron will, I think, win the first round, and then the second.0 -
I heard Carswell asked for the Tory whip and Mrs May said no
Traitors must be punished for their treachery
I'm liking Mrs May a lot now.0 -
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Effectively his margin is 6pts with three days to go. That's a decent advantage. It's the third placed runner he has to keep ahead of, not the person in second place.TheWhiteRabbit said:FPT
I see a new poll in France from Harris (changes from last week):
Macron 25% (+1) Le Pen 22% (NC) Fillon 19% (-1) Melenchon 19% (NC). Another good poll for Macron, but 3% is hardly safe if you assume that he is particularly vulnerable to a polling error.0 -
As are many moreTheScreamingEagles said:I heard Carswell asked for the Tory whip and Mrs May said no
Traitors must be punished for their treachery
I'm liking Mrs May a lot now.0 -
Chortle ....TheScreamingEagles said:I heard Carswell asked for the Tory whip and Mrs May said no
Traitors must be punished for their treachery
I'm liking Mrs May a lot now.
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Giles Watling it is!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The proddy vicar in parliament0
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Thanks Richard. A pony on it at Betfair sportsbook for me!Richard_Nabavi said:Off-topic, but surely too good to miss: PP and Betfair Sports go 1.44 on Con to HOLD (yes, you read that correctly) Derby North - with a 14.6% UKIP vote to squeeze to boot..
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fpt @ NickPalmer
Nick, having lived in Switzerland, there is much to admire (and a bit to find creepy) about the civic-mindedness of the Swiss and how they govern themselves. But that system is based upon totally different realities than Britain - different size, different community structures, different culture and a different political history. I don't see any feasible path from what we have in Britain to that sort of structure.
Even if we did, given the number of decisions and pieces of legislation the government has to make, it is unrealistic to consult the public on all of them. How do you decide which are referendum-worthy and which are not? At the moment, our practice seems to reserve referenda for clearly constitutional issues. I rather like that threshold0 -
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In Hartlepool, at least, even the town’s famous mascot, H’Angus the Monkey, is considering voting Conservative.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/19/hartlepool-ponders-a-change-after-half-a-century-voting-labour0 -
Sorry to see Carswell leave Parliament as he was an authentic, independent voice.0
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Without wanting to have a dig at Nick, I think it's the respective roles of politicians in the two countries that makes the Swiss system appeal. I agree with you that it's just not realistic in a country like the UK.MTimT said:fpt @ NickPalmer
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Luke 15:7TheScreamingEagles said:I heard Carswell asked for the Tory whip and Mrs May said no
Traitors must be punished for their treachery
I'm liking Mrs May a lot now.
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I certainly think the country is liking the smack of firm governmentTheScreamingEagles said:I heard Carswell asked for the Tory whip and Mrs May said no
Traitors must be punished for their treachery
I'm liking Mrs May a lot now.
0 -
Robots are racist and sexist. Just like the people who created them - Laurie Penny
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/20/robots-racist-sexist-people-machines-ai-language
Is she going to stand for the mentalist party? She will fit right in.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
I heard Carswell asked for the Tory whip and Mrs May said no
Traitors must be punished for their treachery
I'm liking Mrs May a lot now.
- about time you had some good news, hope it lasts all day… 0 -
Con lead vs Lab:Big_G_NorthWales said:
As are many moreTheScreamingEagles said:I heard Carswell asked for the Tory whip and Mrs May said no
Traitors must be punished for their treachery
I'm liking Mrs May a lot now.
Lon: +6
RoS: +43
MdW: +22
Nth: +13
Sc +14 (-20 vs SNP)
That 'North' number used to be low single digits - and for a long time was level pegging.....0 -
LibDem punters.
Remember this:
There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.
Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.
Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.
So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.
Let's assume every possible Conservative seats. That's another seven (including Lewes).
Let's also give them all four of the vaguely possible SNP seats.
And let's add another two seats which the LibDems remarkably pull out of the hat.
I think any normal person would agree that these are pretty bullish forecasts for the LibDems. And - assuming they keep all their current seats - that puts them on... (drumroll)...
28 seats.
And that's in a "best of all possible worlds" scenario**.
Much more likely they manage three of the five labour seats, two of the Conservative ones, and two SNP ones. We'll give them one for good luck, and assume they hold Richmond and their other seats.
That gets you to 18. And I'm still probably a bit bullish. My range on their seats would be 14 to 18.
* Lewes almost makes the cut, so that's a possible for them too.
** Assuming no total Labour meltdown.0 -
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His margin's not 3%, though. It's 6%. You care about the gap to third place, not to second.TheWhiteRabbit said:FPT
I see a new poll in France from Harris (changes from last week):
Macron 25% (+1) Le Pen 22% (NC) Fillon 19% (-1) Melenchon 19% (NC). Another good poll for Macron, but 3% is hardly safe if you assume that he is particularly vulnerable to a polling error.0 -
He seems incapable of letting things go - he was still bitching about VoteLeave getting the official campaign position, and standing against Carswell when neither was in UKIP anymore - so something stupid probably.Slackbladder said:
What will Arron Banks do now?Scott_P said:Carswell not standing
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Remember the previous monkey stood as an independent in what was expected to be a walkover for Labour...FrancisUrquhart said:In Hartlepool, at least, even the town’s famous mascot, H’Angus the Monkey, is considering voting Conservative.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/19/hartlepool-ponders-a-change-after-half-a-century-voting-labour0 -
ffs Futurama has been on air since 1999, and she has only just realised this? Did (or rather will) the robot Bender Bending Rodriguez live in vain?FrancisUrquhart said:Robots are racist and sexist. Just like the people who created them - Laurie Penny
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/20/robots-racist-sexist-people-machines-ai-language
Is she going to stand for the mentalist party? She will fit right in.0 -
Faulty assumption. Assume total annihilation.rcs1000 said:** Assuming no total Labour meltdown.
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I asked for £400 on the 10-19 seat band this morning in a PP shop (@10-1) but was only allowed 50 :sad-face:rcs1000 said:LibDem punters.
Remember this:
There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.
Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.
Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.
So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.
Let's assume every possible Conservative seats. That's another seven (including Lewes).
Let's also give them all four of the vaguely possible SNP seats.
And let's add another two seats which the LibDems remarkably pull out of the hat.
I think any normal person would agree that these are pretty bullish forecasts for the LibDems. And - assuming they keep all their current seats - that puts them on... (drumroll)...
28 seats.
And that's in a "best of all possible worlds" scenario**.
Much more likely they manage three of the five labour seats, two of the Conservative ones, and two SNP ones. We'll give them one for good luck, and assume they hold Richmond and their other seats.
That gets you to 18. And I'm still probably a bit bullish. My range on their seats would be 14 to 18.
* Lewes almost makes the cut, so that's a possible for them too.
** Assuming no total Labour meltdown.
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It was a NUNS last time and is going to be a NUNS this time.rcs1000 said:LibDem punters.
Remember this:
There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.
Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.
Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.
So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.
Let's assume every possible Conservative seats. That's another seven (including Lewes).
Let's also give them all four of the vaguely possible SNP seats.
And let's add another two seats which the LibDems remarkably pull out of the hat.
I think any normal person would agree that these are pretty bullish forecasts for the LibDems. And - assuming they keep all their current seats - that puts them on... (drumroll)...
28 seats.
And that's in a "best of all possible worlds" scenario**.
Much more likely they manage three of the five labour seats, two of the Conservative ones, and two SNP ones. We'll give them one for good luck, and assume they hold Richmond and their other seats.
That gets you to 18. And I'm still probably a bit bullish. My range on their seats would be 14 to 18.
* Lewes almost makes the cut, so that's a possible for them too.
** Assuming no total Labour meltdown.0 -
Is Michael Gove standing again?0
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Yes, a slip from me as pointed out three times!rcs1000 said:
His margin's not 3%, though. It's 6%. You care about the gap to third place, not to second.TheWhiteRabbit said:FPT
I see a new poll in France from Harris (changes from last week):
Macron 25% (+1) Le Pen 22% (NC) Fillon 19% (-1) Melenchon 19% (NC). Another good poll for Macron, but 3% is hardly safe if you assume that he is particularly vulnerable to a polling error.
My point is the same though. If Macron actually has a 6% lead, he's almost home and dry. We are talking about another sort of risk, which is the risk that he doesn't have a 6% lead.0 -
Mr. Eagles, May the Merciless?0
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Yes.AlastairMeeks said:Is Michael Gove standing again?
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Yes.AlastairMeeks said:Is Michael Gove standing again?
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FrancisUrquhart said:
https://order-order.com/2017/04/20/corbyn-crowd-boos-and-shouts-down-itv-question/
When do the Trumpian chants of "Lock Em Up" start?
Upon reading the headlines about his speech, my immediate thought was "Corbyn is trying to do a Trump". And then I laughed.
Trump, for all his faults, knows how to communicate effectively, even if we educational and political elite scoff at his almost childish verbal formulations. He understands that action is spurred by emotions, not cognition, and that 'facts' just do not get the job done. Speak to either people's fears or their aspirations, or as Trump did, both.
Jezza doesn't know how to communicate, period. He has no dream to inspire a majority of the electorate. And the fear he inspires is of himself, not the Tories.0 -
@DAaronovitch: Demolished the house. Job done. Smashed all the plates. Job done. Slept with spouse's sibling. Job done. The world according to Douglas.
@carlgardner: Infuriating that politicians who set Britain on course for disaster now just slip away, avoiding all the blame and anger they'll deserve.
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Also Tories surest to vote Tory - Lib dems the least confident:
Vote for party: Definitely / Probably / Possibly
Con: 74 / 18 / 7
Lab: 51 / 29 / 16
LibD; 31 / 33 / 33
UKIP: 46 / 31 / 15
Those Lob Dem numbers....'mile wide and inch deep' springs to mind......chortle....0 -
Oh good - but we've all seens ones jus like it which are real.Paristonda said:z
That article is a satirical piece. It's not particularly funny but it's not a serious piece.kle4 said:
Opinion piece not a headline I suppose, unlike 'Crush the Saboteurs', but while I find Corbynista and right wing headbanger whinges on MSM to be pathetic stuff, I confess when the papers go this extreme it is so wearying.MTimT said:
All these people being told if they have doubts, why not go join the Tories already, what if they do? Although perhaps they have already.0 -
If Farage fancies a run in a strongly Leave constituency against a representative of the Westminster Elites*... Hull West beckons.
* assuming that David Prescott gets the nod.0 -
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Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.rcs1000 said:LibDem punters.
Remember this:
There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.
Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.
Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.
So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.
Let's assume every possible Conservative seats. That's another seven (including Lewes).
Let's also give them all four of the vaguely possible SNP seats.
And let's add another two seats which the LibDems remarkably pull out of the hat.
I think any normal person would agree that these are pretty bullish forecasts for the LibDems. And - assuming they keep all their current seats - that puts them on... (drumroll)...
28 seats.
And that's in a "best of all possible worlds" scenario**.
Much more likely they manage three of the five labour seats, two of the Conservative ones, and two SNP ones. We'll give them one for good luck, and assume they hold Richmond and their other seats.
That gets you to 18. And I'm still probably a bit bullish. My range on their seats would be 14 to 18.
* Lewes almost makes the cut, so that's a possible for them too.
** Assuming no total Labour meltdown.
Lots of strong second places to build on too.0 -
Feel sorry for them. Justice delayed and all that.Scott_P said:0 -
Where? Short of Norwich South there aren't many gains to be had...Scott_P said:0 -
A fair summation. I like Corbyn's general tone much of the time, I think he's an effective speaker in some regards, on the right subjects, but trying to mirror the trump way won't work. Trump sounds stupid, hell he may even be stupid, but he is fascinating and resonanting in a way that is very very hard to pull off.MTimT said:FrancisUrquhart said:https://order-order.com/2017/04/20/corbyn-crowd-boos-and-shouts-down-itv-question/
When do the Trumpian chants of "Lock Em Up" start?
Upon reading the headlines about his speech, my immediate thought was "Corbyn is trying to do a Trump". And then I laughed.
Trump, for all his faults, knows how to communicate effectively, even if we educational and political elite scoff at his almost childish verbal formulations. He understands that action is spurred by emotions, not cognition, and that 'facts' just do not get the job done. Speak to either people's fears or their aspirations, or as Trump did, both.
Jezza doesn't know how to communicate, period. He has no dream to inspire a majority of the electorate. And the fear he inspires is of himself, not the Tories.0 -
GIN1138 said:
Sorry to see Carswell leave Parliament as he was an authentic, independent voice.
He hasn't lost yet.0 -
I'll offer you 1-10 if you want to top up your bet.Pulpstar said:
I asked for £400 on the 10-19 seat band this morning in a PP shop (@10-1) but was only allowed 50 :sad-face:rcs1000 said:LibDem punters.
Remember this:
There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.
Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.
Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.
So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.
Let's assume every possible Conservative seats. That's another seven (including Lewes).
Let's also give them all four of the vaguely possible SNP seats.
And let's add another two seats which the LibDems remarkably pull out of the hat.
I think any normal person would agree that these are pretty bullish forecasts for the LibDems. And - assuming they keep all their current seats - that puts them on... (drumroll)...
28 seats.
And that's in a "best of all possible worlds" scenario**.
Much more likely they manage three of the five labour seats, two of the Conservative ones, and two SNP ones. We'll give them one for good luck, and assume they hold Richmond and their other seats.
That gets you to 18. And I'm still probably a bit bullish. My range on their seats would be 14 to 18.
* Lewes almost makes the cut, so that's a possible for them too.
** Assuming no total Labour meltdown.0 -
Lilo Lil, she is a tart.Scrapheap_as_was said:Giles Watling it is!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The proddy vicar in parliament
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He should stand in Boston and Skegness. 76% leave and the MP was a remainer. The Tories have a 4k majority there.Rexel56 said:If Farage fancies a run in a strongly Leave constituency against a representative of the Westminster Elites*... Hull West beckons.
* assuming that David Prescott gets the nod.0 -
So reading the polls, I would strip out any shy/difficult to reach Tory correction, but then multiply* the Con/Lab/LD/UKIP scores by 0.95, 0.8, 0.64 and 0.75 respectively, and then renormalize to 100% to get my 'likely voter' score.CarlottaVance said:Also Tories surest to vote Tory - Lib dems the least confident:
Vote for party: Definitely / Probably / Possibly
Con: 74 / 18 / 7
Lab: 51 / 29 / 16
LibD; 31 / 33 / 33
UKIP: 46 / 31 / 15
Those Lob Dem numbers....'mile wide and inch deep' springs to mind......chortle....
* Unless the pollster has already done this0 -
I'd guess those UKIP figures are a tad optimistic.CarlottaVance said:Also Tories surest to vote Tory - Lib dems the least confident:
Vote for party: Definitely / Probably / Possibly
Con: 74 / 18 / 7
Lab: 51 / 29 / 16
LibD; 31 / 33 / 33
UKIP: 46 / 31 / 15
Those Lob Dem numbers....'mile wide and inch deep' springs to mind......chortle....
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He's lost his bottle.David_Evershed said:
He hasn't lost yet.GIN1138 said:Sorry to see Carswell leave Parliament as he was an authentic, independent voice.
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LibDem always have the lowest certainty to vote, though. Was true in 2001 and 2005 too when they outperformed expectations.CarlottaVance said:Also Tories surest to vote Tory - Lib dems the least confident:
Vote for party: Definitely / Probably / Possibly
Con: 74 / 18 / 7
Lab: 51 / 29 / 16
LibD; 31 / 33 / 33
UKIP: 46 / 31 / 15
Those Lob Dem numbers....'mile wide and inch deep' springs to mind......chortle....0 -
Norfolk North. Perhaps Mrs May likes the taste of Lamb?TheWhiteRabbit said:
Where? Short of Norwich South there aren't many gains to be had...Scott_P said:0 -
New BVA also out
Macron 24%
Le Pen 23%
Fillon 19%
Melenchon 19%
http://www.bva-group.com/sondages/18eme-vague-dintentions-de-vote-4-jours-de-lelection-presidentielle/0 -
RCS called it right on the LDs, or closer to right than most, in 2015, and it all seems plausible. They are so far behind in most places, you need Richmond swings.rcs1000 said:LibDem punters.
Remember this:
There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.
Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.
Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.
So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.
Let's assume every possible Conservative seats. That's another seven (including Lewes).
Let's also give them all four of the vaguely possible SNP seats.
And let's add another two seats which the LibDems remarkably pull out of the hat.
I think any normal person would agree that these are pretty bullish forecasts for the LibDems. And - assuming they keep all their current seats - that puts them on... (drumroll)...
28 seats.
And that's in a "best of all possible worlds" scenario**.
Much more likely they manage three of the five labour seats, two of the Conservative ones, and two SNP ones. We'll give them one for good luck, and assume they hold Richmond and their other seats.
That gets you to 18. And I'm still probably a bit bullish. My range on their seats would be 14 to 18.
* Lewes almost makes the cut, so that's a possible for them too.
** Assuming no total Labour meltdown.
If they get 20 seats and a slew of second place recoveries, they'll be thrilled I think.0 -
Not standing.David_Evershed said:GIN1138 said:Sorry to see Carswell leave Parliament as he was an authentic, independent voice.
He hasn't lost yet.0 -
Does this open the way for his rehabilitation in the Cabinet post-election, or is he still going to be on May's naughty list?TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.AlastairMeeks said:Is Michael Gove standing again?
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@DMcCaffreySKY: Carswell claimed yesterday to me/ @DPJHodges could win as independent but seemed to be seeking Tory nomination. Now seems couldn't do either
@DPJHodges: Agree with @DMcCaffreySKY. Douglas Carswell had clearly been exploring possibility of running as Tory. Seems to have been rebuffed.
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Kate Hoey standing again in Vauxhall.0
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I'm not certain but I thought 2005 was actually a let down for LDs and they underperformed expectations? They obviously did well in absolute terms, but IIRC they were expecting more seats than they got?rcs1000 said:
LibDem always have the lowest certainty to vote, though. Was true in 2001 and 2005 too when they outperformed expectations.CarlottaVance said:Also Tories surest to vote Tory - Lib dems the least confident:
Vote for party: Definitely / Probably / Possibly
Con: 74 / 18 / 7
Lab: 51 / 29 / 16
LibD; 31 / 33 / 33
UKIP: 46 / 31 / 15
Those Lob Dem numbers....'mile wide and inch deep' springs to mind......chortle....0 -
They would be very sensible to get him back in the Justice role.MTimT said:
Does this open the way for his rehabilitation in the Cabinet post-election, or is he still going to be on May's naughty list?TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.AlastairMeeks said:Is Michael Gove standing again?
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It is Lambing season....TheWhiteRabbit said:
Where? Short of Norwich South there aren't many gains to be had...Scott_P said:0 -
Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.foxinsoxuk said:Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.
Lots of strong second places to build on too.0 -
PM talking to voters shocker! It will never do!Scott_P said:0 -
He will always be on my naughty list, but I'd love see him back as Justice Secretary.MTimT said:
Does this open the way for his rehabilitation in the Cabinet post-election, or is he still going to be on May's naughty list?TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.AlastairMeeks said:Is Michael Gove standing again?
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A target for the London Lib Dem Remain focused campaign to aim at.TheScreamingEagles said:Kate Hoey standing again in Vauxhall.
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Are you up for the Battle of Bosworthfoxinsoxuk said:
Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.rcs1000 said:LibDem punters.
Remember this:
There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.
Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.
Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.
So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.
Let's assume every possible Conservative seats. That's another seven (including Lewes).
Let's also give them all four of the vaguely possible SNP seats.
And let's add another two seats which the LibDems remarkably pull out of the hat.
I think any normal person would agree that these are pretty bullish forecasts for the LibDems. And - assuming they keep all their current seats - that puts them on... (drumroll)...
28 seats.
And that's in a "best of all possible worlds" scenario**.
Much more likely they manage three of the five labour seats, two of the Conservative ones, and two SNP ones. We'll give them one for good luck, and assume they hold Richmond and their other seats.
That gets you to 18. And I'm still probably a bit bullish. My range on their seats would be 14 to 18.
* Lewes almost makes the cut, so that's a possible for them too.
** Assuming no total Labour meltdown.
Lots of strong second places to build on too. ? 0 -
I got Cambridge wrong last time. :-(kle4 said:
RCS called it right on the LDs, or closer to right than most, in 2015, and it all seems plausible. They are so far behind in most places, you need Richmond swings.rcs1000 said:LibDem punters.
Remember this:
There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.
Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.
Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.
So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.
Let's assume every possible Conservative seats. That's another seven (including Lewes).
Let's also give them all four of the vaguely possible SNP seats.
And let's add another two seats which the LibDems remarkably pull out of the hat.
I think any normal person would agree that these are pretty bullish forecasts for the LibDems. And - assuming they keep all their current seats - that puts them on... (drumroll)...
28 seats.
And that's in a "best of all possible worlds" scenario**.
Much more likely they manage three of the five labour seats, two of the Conservative ones, and two SNP ones. We'll give them one for good luck, and assume they hold Richmond and their other seats.
That gets you to 18. And I'm still probably a bit bullish. My range on their seats would be 14 to 18.
* Lewes almost makes the cut, so that's a possible for them too.
** Assuming no total Labour meltdown.
If they get 20 seats and a slew of second place recoveries, they'll be thrilled I think.0 -
I think you're thinking of 2010 when there was the Clegg-gasm, but they actually lost seats.Paristonda said:
I'm not certain but I thought 2005 was actually a let down for LDs and they underperformed expectations? They obviously did well in absolute terms, but IIRC they were expecting more seats than they got?rcs1000 said:
LibDem always have the lowest certainty to vote, though. Was true in 2001 and 2005 too when they outperformed expectations.CarlottaVance said:Also Tories surest to vote Tory - Lib dems the least confident:
Vote for party: Definitely / Probably / Possibly
Con: 74 / 18 / 7
Lab: 51 / 29 / 16
LibD; 31 / 33 / 33
UKIP: 46 / 31 / 15
Those Lob Dem numbers....'mile wide and inch deep' springs to mind......chortle....0 -
Absolutely better than Truss. She is a disgrace.TheScreamingEagles said:
He will always be on my naughty list, but I'd love see him back as Justice Secretary.MTimT said:
Does this open the way for his rehabilitation in the Cabinet post-election, or is he still going to be on May's naughty list?TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.AlastairMeeks said:Is Michael Gove standing again?
0 -
Ah, Thanks.Ishmael_Z said:
Not standing.David_Evershed said:GIN1138 said:Sorry to see Carswell leave Parliament as he was an authentic, independent voice.
He hasn't lost yet.0 -
That 18% 'probably' group is interesting for the Con vote. What would be their alternative option? With Lab/Lib you can imagine people hesitating between the two, but is that 18% soft remainer tories or are they diamond hard brexiteers?MTimT said:
So reading the polls, I would strip out any shy/difficult to reach Tory correction, but then multiply* the Con/Lab/LD/UKIP scores by 0.95, 0.8, 0.64 and 0.75 respectively, and then renormalize to 100% to get my 'likely voter' score.CarlottaVance said:Also Tories surest to vote Tory - Lib dems the least confident:
Vote for party: Definitely / Probably / Possibly
Con: 74 / 18 / 7
Lab: 51 / 29 / 16
LibD; 31 / 33 / 33
UKIP: 46 / 31 / 15
Those Lob Dem numbers....'mile wide and inch deep' springs to mind......chortle....
* Unless the pollster has already done this0 -
That was a close one though, wasn't it? Certainly you were at least in the same ballpark!rcs1000 said:
I got Cambridge wrong last time. :-(kle4 said:
RCS called it right on the LDs, or closer to right than most, in 2015, and it all seems plausible. They are so far behind in most places, you need Richmond swings.rcs1000 said:LibDem punters.
Remember this:
There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.
Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.
Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.
So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.
Let's assume every possible Conservative seats. That's another seven (including Lewes).
Let's also give them all four of the vaguely possible SNP seats.
And let's add another two seats which the LibDems remarkably pull out of the hat.
I think any normal person would agree that these are pretty bullish forecasts for the LibDems. And - assuming they keep all their current seats - that puts them on... (drumroll)...
28 seats.
And that's in a "best of all possible worlds" scenario**.
Much more likely they manage three of the five labour seats, two of the Conservative ones, and two SNP ones. We'll give them one for good luck, and assume they hold Richmond and their other seats.
That gets you to 18. And I'm still probably a bit bullish. My range on their seats would be 14 to 18.
* Lewes almost makes the cut, so that's a possible for them too.
** Assuming no total Labour meltdown.
If they get 20 seats and a slew of second place recoveries, they'll be thrilled I think.0 -
She is. She's thick as pig shit. She's so crap she makes Richard Burgon look good.ToryJim said:
Absolutely better than Truss. She is a disgrace.TheScreamingEagles said:
He will always be on my naughty list, but I'd love see him back as Justice Secretary.MTimT said:
Does this open the way for his rehabilitation in the Cabinet post-election, or is he still going to be on May's naughty list?TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.AlastairMeeks said:Is Michael Gove standing again?
0 -
Vauxhall was 80.7% Remain according to Hanretty. The LibDems start at 6.9%, 43% behind Ms Hoey.williamglenn said:
A target for the London Lib Dem Remain focused campaign to aim at.TheScreamingEagles said:Kate Hoey standing again in Vauxhall.
Mind you, if* they could pick up half the Remain vote, they'd be in with a chance.
I'll offer you 10-1 if you want.
* You can't see it, but that's a very big if.0 -
Wow...steady on there partner....TheScreamingEagles said:
She is. She's thick as pig shit. She's so crap she makes Richard Burgon look good.ToryJim said:
Absolutely better than Truss. She is a disgrace.TheScreamingEagles said:
He will always be on my naughty list, but I'd love see him back as Justice Secretary.MTimT said:
Does this open the way for his rehabilitation in the Cabinet post-election, or is he still going to be on May's naughty list?TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.AlastairMeeks said:Is Michael Gove standing again?
0 -
Can I have £50 on that?rcs1000 said:
Vauxhall was 80.7% Remain according to Hanretty. The LibDems start at 6.9%, 43% behind Ms Hoey.williamglenn said:
A target for the London Lib Dem Remain focused campaign to aim at.TheScreamingEagles said:Kate Hoey standing again in Vauxhall.
Mind you, if* they could pick up half the Remain vote, they'd be in with a chance.
I'll offer you 10-1 if you want.
* You can't see it, but that's a very big if.0 -
I have a friend who's a Labour councillor in Cambridge, and she was convinced they'd lost. I shall not be listening to her again.kle4 said:
That was a close one though, wasn't it? Certainly you were at least in the same ballpark!rcs1000 said:
I got Cambridge wrong last time. :-(kle4 said:
RCS called it right on the LDs, or closer to right than most, in 2015, and it all seems plausible. They are so far behind in most places, you need Richmond swings.rcs1000 said:LibDem punters.
Remember this:
There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.
Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.
Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.
So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.
Let's assume every possible Conservative seats. That's another seven (including Lewes).
Let's also give them all four of the vaguely possible SNP seats.
And let's add another two seats which the LibDems remarkably pull out of the hat.
I think any normal person would agree that these are pretty bullish forecasts for the LibDems. And - assuming they keep all their current seats - that puts them on... (drumroll)...
28 seats.
And that's in a "best of all possible worlds" scenario**.
Much more likely they manage three of the five labour seats, two of the Conservative ones, and two SNP ones. We'll give them one for good luck, and assume they hold Richmond and their other seats.
That gets you to 18. And I'm still probably a bit bullish. My range on their seats would be 14 to 18.
* Lewes almost makes the cut, so that's a possible for them too.
** Assuming no total Labour meltdown.
If they get 20 seats and a slew of second place recoveries, they'll be thrilled I think.0 -
How well or badly do you think the government are doing at negotiating Britain's exit from the European Union? (vs -1 wk)
Net Well : +5 (+6)0 -
Fixed it for youCarlottaVance said:PM talking to
votershand picked Tory supporters shocker! It will never do!0 -
Maybe she likes being surrounded by people who agree with her as much as Corbyn. It should be easier for her to manage.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Where? Short of Norwich South there aren't many gains to be had...Scott_P said:0 -
You want £50 at 10-1 on the LibDem's winning Vauxhall?TheScreamingEagles said:
Can I have £50 on that?rcs1000 said:
Vauxhall was 80.7% Remain according to Hanretty. The LibDems start at 6.9%, 43% behind Ms Hoey.williamglenn said:
A target for the London Lib Dem Remain focused campaign to aim at.TheScreamingEagles said:Kate Hoey standing again in Vauxhall.
Mind you, if* they could pick up half the Remain vote, they'd be in with a chance.
I'll offer you 10-1 if you want.
* You can't see it, but that's a very big if.
Sure, I'll take your money.0 -
Deal.rcs1000 said:
You want £50 at 10-1 on the LibDem's winning Vauxhall?TheScreamingEagles said:
Can I have £50 on that?rcs1000 said:
Vauxhall was 80.7% Remain according to Hanretty. The LibDems start at 6.9%, 43% behind Ms Hoey.williamglenn said:
A target for the London Lib Dem Remain focused campaign to aim at.TheScreamingEagles said:Kate Hoey standing again in Vauxhall.
Mind you, if* they could pick up half the Remain vote, they'd be in with a chance.
I'll offer you 10-1 if you want.
* You can't see it, but that's a very big if.
Sure, I'll take your money.0 -
0
-
For those who like to plan accordingly.
Mike's major holiday begins 30th of June till the middle of July.
We all know what happens when I'm guest editor.0 -
Yes, LDs are basically reasonable people, and open to tactical voting. That Lab vote looks squeezable too.rcs1000 said:
LibDem always have the lowest certainty to vote, though. Was true in 2001 and 2005 too when they outperformed expectations.CarlottaVance said:Also Tories surest to vote Tory - Lib dems the least confident:
Vote for party: Definitely / Probably / Possibly
Con: 74 / 18 / 7
Lab: 51 / 29 / 16
LibD; 31 / 33 / 33
UKIP: 46 / 31 / 15
Those Lob Dem numbers....'mile wide and inch deep' springs to mind......chortle....0
