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SystemSystem Posts: 12,683
edited April 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The French Presidential polls edge back a touch to Macron who is now odds-on in the betting once again

Tuesday’s shock announcement by Mrs May that there is to be an early UK General Election has rather overshadowed events in France where the country’s presidential election takes place on Sunday.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    Feck, I'd forgotten about this.

    Big fat reds against Fillon and Le Pen, green elsewhere.

    So it's Fillon and Le Pen in the final two then. Nailed on
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    FPT

    I see a new poll in France from Harris (changes from last week):
    Macron 25% (+1) Le Pen 22% (NC) Fillon 19% (-1) Melenchon 19% (NC). Another good poll for Macron, but 3% is hardly safe if you assume that he is particularly vulnerable to a polling error.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited April 2017
    Carswell not standing
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,551
    edited April 2017
    https://order-order.com/2017/04/20/corbyn-crowd-boos-and-shouts-down-itv-question/

    When do the Trumpian chants of "Lock Em Up" start?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    FPT

    I see a new poll in France from Harris (changes from last week):
    Macron 25% (+1) Le Pen 22% (NC) Fillon 19% (-1) Melenchon 19% (NC). Another good poll for Macron, but 3% is hardly safe if you assume that he is particularly vulnerable to a polling error.

    Except it's 6%. He doesn't have to finish first.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    Scott_P said:

    Carswell not standing

    What will Arron Banks do now?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:

    Carswell not standing

    He's a bit of an arsehole really isn't he?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Scott_P said:

    Carswell not standing

    Shame. I'd like to see if he could make it as an Indy. Though I thought if he returned to Con the price would be he wouldn't be allowed to stand in Clayton, he'd have to wait for another one.

    Macron looking pretty firm still.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Feck, I'd forgotten about this.

    Big fat reds against Fillon and Le Pen, green elsewhere.

    So it's Fillon and Le Pen in the final two then. Nailed on

    "Nailed on" is an interesting choice of words over Easter ....

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    Slackbladder said:

    Scott_P said:

    Carswell not standing

    What will Arron Banks do now?
    Lose to the Tories.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Off-topic, but surely too good to miss: PP and Betfair Sports go 1.44 on Con to HOLD (yes, you read that correctly) Derby North - with a 14.6% UKIP vote to squeeze to boot..
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Mr. Eagles, think you'll be fine.

    Macron will, I think, win the first round, and then the second.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    I heard Carswell asked for the Tory whip and Mrs May said no

    Traitors must be punished for their treachery

    I'm liking Mrs May a lot now.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/mr_eugenides/status/855017577399042049
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    FPT

    I see a new poll in France from Harris (changes from last week):
    Macron 25% (+1) Le Pen 22% (NC) Fillon 19% (-1) Melenchon 19% (NC). Another good poll for Macron, but 3% is hardly safe if you assume that he is particularly vulnerable to a polling error.

    Effectively his margin is 6pts with three days to go. That's a decent advantage. It's the third placed runner he has to keep ahead of, not the person in second place.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,234
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I heard Carswell asked for the Tory whip and Mrs May said no

    Traitors must be punished for their treachery

    I'm liking Mrs May a lot now.

    As are many more
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I heard Carswell asked for the Tory whip and Mrs May said no

    Traitors must be punished for their treachery

    I'm liking Mrs May a lot now.

    Chortle .... :smile:
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited April 2017
    Giles Watling it is!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The proddy vicar in parliament
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,332
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Off-topic, but surely too good to miss: PP and Betfair Sports go 1.44 on Con to HOLD (yes, you read that correctly) Derby North - with a 14.6% UKIP vote to squeeze to boot..

    Thanks Richard. A pony on it at Betfair sportsbook for me!
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    fpt @ NickPalmer

    Nick, having lived in Switzerland, there is much to admire (and a bit to find creepy) about the civic-mindedness of the Swiss and how they govern themselves. But that system is based upon totally different realities than Britain - different size, different community structures, different culture and a different political history. I don't see any feasible path from what we have in Britain to that sort of structure.

    Even if we did, given the number of decisions and pieces of legislation the government has to make, it is unrealistic to consult the public on all of them. How do you decide which are referendum-worthy and which are not? At the moment, our practice seems to reserve referenda for clearly constitutional issues. I rather like that threshold
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/dsandersontimes/status/854944396764164096
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,551
    In Hartlepool, at least, even the town’s famous mascot, H’Angus the Monkey, is considering voting Conservative.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/19/hartlepool-ponders-a-change-after-half-a-century-voting-labour
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    Sorry to see Carswell leave Parliament as he was an authentic, independent voice.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    MTimT said:

    fpt @ NickPalmer

    Without wanting to have a dig at Nick, I think it's the respective roles of politicians in the two countries that makes the Swiss system appeal. I agree with you that it's just not realistic in a country like the UK.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I heard Carswell asked for the Tory whip and Mrs May said no

    Traitors must be punished for their treachery

    I'm liking Mrs May a lot now.

    Luke 15:7

  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I heard Carswell asked for the Tory whip and Mrs May said no

    Traitors must be punished for their treachery

    I'm liking Mrs May a lot now.

    I certainly think the country is liking the smack of firm government ;)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,551
    Robots are racist and sexist. Just like the people who created them - Laurie Penny

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/20/robots-racist-sexist-people-machines-ai-language

    Is she going to stand for the mentalist party? She will fit right in.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I heard Carswell asked for the Tory whip and Mrs May said no

    Traitors must be punished for their treachery

    I'm liking Mrs May a lot now.

    :lol: - about time you had some good news, hope it lasts all day…
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I heard Carswell asked for the Tory whip and Mrs May said no

    Traitors must be punished for their treachery

    I'm liking Mrs May a lot now.

    As are many more
    Con lead vs Lab:

    Lon: +6
    RoS: +43
    MdW: +22
    Nth: +13
    Sc +14 (-20 vs SNP)

    That 'North' number used to be low single digits - and for a long time was level pegging.....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,421
    LibDem punters.

    Remember this:

    There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.

    Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.

    Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.

    So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.

    Let's assume every possible Conservative seats. That's another seven (including Lewes).

    Let's also give them all four of the vaguely possible SNP seats.

    And let's add another two seats which the LibDems remarkably pull out of the hat.

    I think any normal person would agree that these are pretty bullish forecasts for the LibDems. And - assuming they keep all their current seats - that puts them on... (drumroll)...

    28 seats.

    And that's in a "best of all possible worlds" scenario**.

    Much more likely they manage three of the five labour seats, two of the Conservative ones, and two SNP ones. We'll give them one for good luck, and assume they hold Richmond and their other seats.

    That gets you to 18. And I'm still probably a bit bullish. My range on their seats would be 14 to 18.

    * Lewes almost makes the cut, so that's a possible for them too.
    ** Assuming no total Labour meltdown.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/855019355196805120
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,421
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    FPT

    I see a new poll in France from Harris (changes from last week):
    Macron 25% (+1) Le Pen 22% (NC) Fillon 19% (-1) Melenchon 19% (NC). Another good poll for Macron, but 3% is hardly safe if you assume that he is particularly vulnerable to a polling error.

    His margin's not 3%, though. It's 6%. You care about the gap to third place, not to second.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Slackbladder said:

    Scott_P said:

    Carswell not standing

    What will Arron Banks do now?
    He seems incapable of letting things go - he was still bitching about VoteLeave getting the official campaign position, and standing against Carswell when neither was in UKIP anymore - so something stupid probably.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/855017087697383424

    Quelle surprise
  • eekeek Posts: 31,297
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    In Hartlepool, at least, even the town’s famous mascot, H’Angus the Monkey, is considering voting Conservative.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/19/hartlepool-ponders-a-change-after-half-a-century-voting-labour

    Remember the previous monkey stood as an independent in what was expected to be a walkover for Labour...
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Robots are racist and sexist. Just like the people who created them - Laurie Penny

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/20/robots-racist-sexist-people-machines-ai-language

    Is she going to stand for the mentalist party? She will fit right in.

    ffs Futurama has been on air since 1999, and she has only just realised this? Did (or rather will) the robot Bender Bending Rodriguez live in vain?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    rcs1000 said:

    ** Assuming no total Labour meltdown.

    Faulty assumption. Assume total annihilation.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    rcs1000 said:

    LibDem punters.

    Remember this:

    There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.

    Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.

    Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.

    So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.

    Let's assume every possible Conservative seats. That's another seven (including Lewes).

    Let's also give them all four of the vaguely possible SNP seats.

    And let's add another two seats which the LibDems remarkably pull out of the hat.

    I think any normal person would agree that these are pretty bullish forecasts for the LibDems. And - assuming they keep all their current seats - that puts them on... (drumroll)...

    28 seats.

    And that's in a "best of all possible worlds" scenario**.

    Much more likely they manage three of the five labour seats, two of the Conservative ones, and two SNP ones. We'll give them one for good luck, and assume they hold Richmond and their other seats.

    That gets you to 18. And I'm still probably a bit bullish. My range on their seats would be 14 to 18.

    * Lewes almost makes the cut, so that's a possible for them too.
    ** Assuming no total Labour meltdown.

    I asked for £400 on the 10-19 seat band this morning in a PP shop (@10-1) but was only allowed 50 :sad-face:
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,830
    rcs1000 said:

    LibDem punters.

    Remember this:

    There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.

    Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.

    Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.

    So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.

    Let's assume every possible Conservative seats. That's another seven (including Lewes).

    Let's also give them all four of the vaguely possible SNP seats.

    And let's add another two seats which the LibDems remarkably pull out of the hat.

    I think any normal person would agree that these are pretty bullish forecasts for the LibDems. And - assuming they keep all their current seats - that puts them on... (drumroll)...

    28 seats.

    And that's in a "best of all possible worlds" scenario**.

    Much more likely they manage three of the five labour seats, two of the Conservative ones, and two SNP ones. We'll give them one for good luck, and assume they hold Richmond and their other seats.

    That gets you to 18. And I'm still probably a bit bullish. My range on their seats would be 14 to 18.

    * Lewes almost makes the cut, so that's a possible for them too.
    ** Assuming no total Labour meltdown.

    It was a NUNS last time and is going to be a NUNS this time.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Is Michael Gove standing again?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    rcs1000 said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    FPT

    I see a new poll in France from Harris (changes from last week):
    Macron 25% (+1) Le Pen 22% (NC) Fillon 19% (-1) Melenchon 19% (NC). Another good poll for Macron, but 3% is hardly safe if you assume that he is particularly vulnerable to a polling error.

    His margin's not 3%, though. It's 6%. You care about the gap to third place, not to second.
    Yes, a slip from me as pointed out three times!

    My point is the same though. If Macron actually has a 6% lead, he's almost home and dry. We are talking about another sort of risk, which is the risk that he doesn't have a 6% lead.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,799
    GIN1138 said:

    Sorry to see Carswell leave Parliament as he was an authentic, independent voice.

    Agreed.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Mr. Eagles, May the Merciless?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,551
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Is Michael Gove standing again?

    Yes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Is Michael Gove standing again?

    Yes.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    https://order-order.com/2017/04/20/corbyn-crowd-boos-and-shouts-down-itv-question/

    When do the Trumpian chants of "Lock Em Up" start?


    Upon reading the headlines about his speech, my immediate thought was "Corbyn is trying to do a Trump". And then I laughed.

    Trump, for all his faults, knows how to communicate effectively, even if we educational and political elite scoff at his almost childish verbal formulations. He understands that action is spurred by emotions, not cognition, and that 'facts' just do not get the job done. Speak to either people's fears or their aspirations, or as Trump did, both.

    Jezza doesn't know how to communicate, period. He has no dream to inspire a majority of the electorate. And the fear he inspires is of himself, not the Tories.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DAaronovitch: Demolished the house. Job done. Smashed all the plates. Job done. Slept with spouse's sibling. Job done. The world according to Douglas.

    @carlgardner: Infuriating that politicians who set Britain on course for disaster now just slip away, avoiding all the blame and anger they'll deserve.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Also Tories surest to vote Tory - Lib dems the least confident:

    Vote for party: Definitely / Probably / Possibly

    Con: 74 / 18 / 7
    Lab: 51 / 29 / 16
    LibD; 31 / 33 / 33
    UKIP: 46 / 31 / 15

    Those Lob Dem numbers....'mile wide and inch deep' springs to mind......chortle....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Paristonda said:

    z

    kle4 said:

    MTimT said:

    ToryJim said:

    Ludicrous piece in the Indy

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-labour-criticism-general-election-2017-dont-support-him-you-are-a-tory-conservatives-a7692431.html


    Wow! How to win friends and influence people.
    Opinion piece not a headline I suppose, unlike 'Crush the Saboteurs', but while I find Corbynista and right wing headbanger whinges on MSM to be pathetic stuff, I confess when the papers go this extreme it is so wearying.

    All these people being told if they have doubts, why not go join the Tories already, what if they do? Although perhaps they have already.
    That article is a satirical piece. It's not particularly funny but it's not a serious piece.
    Oh good - but we've all seens ones jus like it which are real.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    If Farage fancies a run in a strongly Leave constituency against a representative of the Westminster Elites*... Hull West beckons.

    * assuming that David Prescott gets the nod.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/855020698875699202
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/855019580418387968
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    LibDem punters.

    Remember this:

    There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.

    Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.

    Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.

    So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.

    Let's assume every possible Conservative seats. That's another seven (including Lewes).

    Let's also give them all four of the vaguely possible SNP seats.

    And let's add another two seats which the LibDems remarkably pull out of the hat.

    I think any normal person would agree that these are pretty bullish forecasts for the LibDems. And - assuming they keep all their current seats - that puts them on... (drumroll)...

    28 seats.

    And that's in a "best of all possible worlds" scenario**.

    Much more likely they manage three of the five labour seats, two of the Conservative ones, and two SNP ones. We'll give them one for good luck, and assume they hold Richmond and their other seats.

    That gets you to 18. And I'm still probably a bit bullish. My range on their seats would be 14 to 18.

    * Lewes almost makes the cut, so that's a possible for them too.
    ** Assuming no total Labour meltdown.

    Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.

    Lots of strong second places to build on too.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/dsandersontimes/status/854944396764164096

    Feel sorry for them. Justice delayed and all that.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/855020698875699202

    Where? Short of Norwich South there aren't many gains to be had...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    MTimT said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    https://order-order.com/2017/04/20/corbyn-crowd-boos-and-shouts-down-itv-question/

    When do the Trumpian chants of "Lock Em Up" start?


    Upon reading the headlines about his speech, my immediate thought was "Corbyn is trying to do a Trump". And then I laughed.

    Trump, for all his faults, knows how to communicate effectively, even if we educational and political elite scoff at his almost childish verbal formulations. He understands that action is spurred by emotions, not cognition, and that 'facts' just do not get the job done. Speak to either people's fears or their aspirations, or as Trump did, both.

    Jezza doesn't know how to communicate, period. He has no dream to inspire a majority of the electorate. And the fear he inspires is of himself, not the Tories.
    A fair summation. I like Corbyn's general tone much of the time, I think he's an effective speaker in some regards, on the right subjects, but trying to mirror the trump way won't work. Trump sounds stupid, hell he may even be stupid, but he is fascinating and resonanting in a way that is very very hard to pull off.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    GIN1138 said:

    Sorry to see Carswell leave Parliament as he was an authentic, independent voice.


    He hasn't lost yet.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,421
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LibDem punters.

    Remember this:

    There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.

    Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.

    Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.

    So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.

    Let's assume every possible Conservative seats. That's another seven (including Lewes).

    Let's also give them all four of the vaguely possible SNP seats.

    And let's add another two seats which the LibDems remarkably pull out of the hat.

    I think any normal person would agree that these are pretty bullish forecasts for the LibDems. And - assuming they keep all their current seats - that puts them on... (drumroll)...

    28 seats.

    And that's in a "best of all possible worlds" scenario**.

    Much more likely they manage three of the five labour seats, two of the Conservative ones, and two SNP ones. We'll give them one for good luck, and assume they hold Richmond and their other seats.

    That gets you to 18. And I'm still probably a bit bullish. My range on their seats would be 14 to 18.

    * Lewes almost makes the cut, so that's a possible for them too.
    ** Assuming no total Labour meltdown.

    I asked for £400 on the 10-19 seat band this morning in a PP shop (@10-1) but was only allowed 50 :sad-face:
    I'll offer you 1-10 if you want to top up your bet.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Giles Watling it is!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The proddy vicar in parliament

    Lilo Lil, she is a tart.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,894
    Rexel56 said:

    If Farage fancies a run in a strongly Leave constituency against a representative of the Westminster Elites*... Hull West beckons.

    * assuming that David Prescott gets the nod.

    He should stand in Boston and Skegness. 76% leave and the MP was a remainer. The Tories have a 4k majority there.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited April 2017
    CarlottaVance said:

    Also Tories surest to vote Tory - Lib dems the least confident:

    Vote for party: Definitely / Probably / Possibly

    Con: 74 / 18 / 7
    Lab: 51 / 29 / 16
    LibD; 31 / 33 / 33
    UKIP: 46 / 31 / 15

    Those Lob Dem numbers....'mile wide and inch deep' springs to mind......chortle....

    So reading the polls, I would strip out any shy/difficult to reach Tory correction, but then multiply* the Con/Lab/LD/UKIP scores by 0.95, 0.8, 0.64 and 0.75 respectively, and then renormalize to 100% to get my 'likely voter' score.

    * Unless the pollster has already done this
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    CarlottaVance said:

    Also Tories surest to vote Tory - Lib dems the least confident:

    Vote for party: Definitely / Probably / Possibly

    Con: 74 / 18 / 7
    Lab: 51 / 29 / 16
    LibD; 31 / 33 / 33
    UKIP: 46 / 31 / 15

    Those Lob Dem numbers....'mile wide and inch deep' springs to mind......chortle....

    I'd guess those UKIP figures are a tad optimistic.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    David_Evershed said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sorry to see Carswell leave Parliament as he was an authentic, independent voice.

    He hasn't lost yet.
    He's lost his bottle.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,421
    CarlottaVance said:

    Also Tories surest to vote Tory - Lib dems the least confident:

    Vote for party: Definitely / Probably / Possibly

    Con: 74 / 18 / 7
    Lab: 51 / 29 / 16
    LibD; 31 / 33 / 33
    UKIP: 46 / 31 / 15

    Those Lob Dem numbers....'mile wide and inch deep' springs to mind......chortle....

    LibDem always have the lowest certainty to vote, though. Was true in 2001 and 2005 too when they outperformed expectations.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/855020698875699202

    Where? Short of Norwich South there aren't many gains to be had...
    Norfolk North. Perhaps Mrs May likes the taste of Lamb?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,272
    edited April 2017
    New BVA also out

    Macron 24%
    Le Pen 23%
    Fillon 19%
    Melenchon 19%
    http://www.bva-group.com/sondages/18eme-vague-dintentions-de-vote-4-jours-de-lelection-presidentielle/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    rcs1000 said:

    LibDem punters.

    Remember this:

    There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.

    Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.

    Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.

    So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.

    Let's assume every possible Conservative seats. That's another seven (including Lewes).

    Let's also give them all four of the vaguely possible SNP seats.

    And let's add another two seats which the LibDems remarkably pull out of the hat.

    I think any normal person would agree that these are pretty bullish forecasts for the LibDems. And - assuming they keep all their current seats - that puts them on... (drumroll)...

    28 seats.

    And that's in a "best of all possible worlds" scenario**.

    Much more likely they manage three of the five labour seats, two of the Conservative ones, and two SNP ones. We'll give them one for good luck, and assume they hold Richmond and their other seats.

    That gets you to 18. And I'm still probably a bit bullish. My range on their seats would be 14 to 18.

    * Lewes almost makes the cut, so that's a possible for them too.
    ** Assuming no total Labour meltdown.

    RCS called it right on the LDs, or closer to right than most, in 2015, and it all seems plausible. They are so far behind in most places, you need Richmond swings.

    If they get 20 seats and a slew of second place recoveries, they'll be thrilled I think.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    David_Evershed said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sorry to see Carswell leave Parliament as he was an authentic, independent voice.


    He hasn't lost yet.
    Not standing.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DMcCaffreySKY: Carswell claimed yesterday to me/ @DPJHodges could win as independent but seemed to be seeking Tory nomination. Now seems couldn't do either

    @DPJHodges: Agree with @DMcCaffreySKY. Douglas Carswell had clearly been exploring possibility of running as Tory. Seems to have been rebuffed.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Is Michael Gove standing again?

    Yes.
    Does this open the way for his rehabilitation in the Cabinet post-election, or is he still going to be on May's naughty list?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    Kate Hoey standing again in Vauxhall.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Also Tories surest to vote Tory - Lib dems the least confident:

    Vote for party: Definitely / Probably / Possibly

    Con: 74 / 18 / 7
    Lab: 51 / 29 / 16
    LibD; 31 / 33 / 33
    UKIP: 46 / 31 / 15

    Those Lob Dem numbers....'mile wide and inch deep' springs to mind......chortle....

    LibDem always have the lowest certainty to vote, though. Was true in 2001 and 2005 too when they outperformed expectations.
    I'm not certain but I thought 2005 was actually a let down for LDs and they underperformed expectations? They obviously did well in absolute terms, but IIRC they were expecting more seats than they got?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,551
    MTimT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Is Michael Gove standing again?

    Yes.
    Does this open the way for his rehabilitation in the Cabinet post-election, or is he still going to be on May's naughty list?
    They would be very sensible to get him back in the Justice role.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/855020698875699202

    Where? Short of Norwich South there aren't many gains to be had...
    It is Lambing season....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,421
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.

    Lots of strong second places to build on too.

    Treddinick is an embarassment to parliament, the Conservative Party and the country.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/855020698875699202

    PM talking to voters shocker! It will never do!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    https://twitter.com/KateHoeyMP/status/855022134845898752
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    MTimT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Is Michael Gove standing again?

    Yes.
    Does this open the way for his rehabilitation in the Cabinet post-election, or is he still going to be on May's naughty list?
    He will always be on my naughty list, but I'd love see him back as Justice Secretary.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Kate Hoey standing again in Vauxhall.

    A target for the London Lib Dem Remain focused campaign to aim at.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    foxinsoxuk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LibDem punters.

    Remember this:

    There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.

    Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.

    Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.

    So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.

    Let's assume every possible Conservative seats. That's another seven (including Lewes).

    Let's also give them all four of the vaguely possible SNP seats.

    And let's add another two seats which the LibDems remarkably pull out of the hat.

    I think any normal person would agree that these are pretty bullish forecasts for the LibDems. And - assuming they keep all their current seats - that puts them on... (drumroll)...

    28 seats.

    And that's in a "best of all possible worlds" scenario**.

    Much more likely they manage three of the five labour seats, two of the Conservative ones, and two SNP ones. We'll give them one for good luck, and assume they hold Richmond and their other seats.

    That gets you to 18. And I'm still probably a bit bullish. My range on their seats would be 14 to 18.

    * Lewes almost makes the cut, so that's a possible for them too.
    ** Assuming no total Labour meltdown.

    Shadsys 10-20 LD seats at 11/4 is great value. I agree with your logic. Bosworth is possible too, the LDs held up well here in 2015 and Tredinnick is the Tory MP and widely disliked. Still uphill though.

    Lots of strong second places to build on too.
    Are you up for the Battle of Bosworth :) ?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,421
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LibDem punters.

    Remember this:

    There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.

    Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.

    Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.

    So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.

    Let's assume every possible Conservative seats. That's another seven (including Lewes).

    Let's also give them all four of the vaguely possible SNP seats.

    And let's add another two seats which the LibDems remarkably pull out of the hat.

    I think any normal person would agree that these are pretty bullish forecasts for the LibDems. And - assuming they keep all their current seats - that puts them on... (drumroll)...

    28 seats.

    And that's in a "best of all possible worlds" scenario**.

    Much more likely they manage three of the five labour seats, two of the Conservative ones, and two SNP ones. We'll give them one for good luck, and assume they hold Richmond and their other seats.

    That gets you to 18. And I'm still probably a bit bullish. My range on their seats would be 14 to 18.

    * Lewes almost makes the cut, so that's a possible for them too.
    ** Assuming no total Labour meltdown.

    RCS called it right on the LDs, or closer to right than most, in 2015, and it all seems plausible. They are so far behind in most places, you need Richmond swings.

    If they get 20 seats and a slew of second place recoveries, they'll be thrilled I think.
    I got Cambridge wrong last time. :-(
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,421
    Paristonda said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Also Tories surest to vote Tory - Lib dems the least confident:

    Vote for party: Definitely / Probably / Possibly

    Con: 74 / 18 / 7
    Lab: 51 / 29 / 16
    LibD; 31 / 33 / 33
    UKIP: 46 / 31 / 15

    Those Lob Dem numbers....'mile wide and inch deep' springs to mind......chortle....

    LibDem always have the lowest certainty to vote, though. Was true in 2001 and 2005 too when they outperformed expectations.
    I'm not certain but I thought 2005 was actually a let down for LDs and they underperformed expectations? They obviously did well in absolute terms, but IIRC they were expecting more seats than they got?
    I think you're thinking of 2010 when there was the Clegg-gasm, but they actually lost seats.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MTimT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Is Michael Gove standing again?

    Yes.
    Does this open the way for his rehabilitation in the Cabinet post-election, or is he still going to be on May's naughty list?
    He will always be on my naughty list, but I'd love see him back as Justice Secretary.
    Absolutely better than Truss. She is a disgrace.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Ishmael_Z said:

    David_Evershed said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sorry to see Carswell leave Parliament as he was an authentic, independent voice.


    He hasn't lost yet.
    Not standing.
    Ah, Thanks.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    MTimT said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Also Tories surest to vote Tory - Lib dems the least confident:

    Vote for party: Definitely / Probably / Possibly

    Con: 74 / 18 / 7
    Lab: 51 / 29 / 16
    LibD; 31 / 33 / 33
    UKIP: 46 / 31 / 15

    Those Lob Dem numbers....'mile wide and inch deep' springs to mind......chortle....

    So reading the polls, I would strip out any shy/difficult to reach Tory correction, but then multiply* the Con/Lab/LD/UKIP scores by 0.95, 0.8, 0.64 and 0.75 respectively, and then renormalize to 100% to get my 'likely voter' score.

    * Unless the pollster has already done this
    That 18% 'probably' group is interesting for the Con vote. What would be their alternative option? With Lab/Lib you can imagine people hesitating between the two, but is that 18% soft remainer tories or are they diamond hard brexiteers?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LibDem punters.

    Remember this:

    There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.

    Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.

    Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.

    So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.

    Let's assume every possible Conservative seats. That's another seven (including Lewes).

    Let's also give them all four of the vaguely possible SNP seats.

    And let's add another two seats which the LibDems remarkably pull out of the hat.

    I think any normal person would agree that these are pretty bullish forecasts for the LibDems. And - assuming they keep all their current seats - that puts them on... (drumroll)...

    28 seats.

    And that's in a "best of all possible worlds" scenario**.

    Much more likely they manage three of the five labour seats, two of the Conservative ones, and two SNP ones. We'll give them one for good luck, and assume they hold Richmond and their other seats.

    That gets you to 18. And I'm still probably a bit bullish. My range on their seats would be 14 to 18.

    * Lewes almost makes the cut, so that's a possible for them too.
    ** Assuming no total Labour meltdown.

    RCS called it right on the LDs, or closer to right than most, in 2015, and it all seems plausible. They are so far behind in most places, you need Richmond swings.

    If they get 20 seats and a slew of second place recoveries, they'll be thrilled I think.
    I got Cambridge wrong last time. :-(
    That was a close one though, wasn't it? Certainly you were at least in the same ballpark!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MTimT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Is Michael Gove standing again?

    Yes.
    Does this open the way for his rehabilitation in the Cabinet post-election, or is he still going to be on May's naughty list?
    He will always be on my naughty list, but I'd love see him back as Justice Secretary.
    Absolutely better than Truss. She is a disgrace.
    She is. She's thick as pig shit. She's so crap she makes Richard Burgon look good.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,421
    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Kate Hoey standing again in Vauxhall.

    A target for the London Lib Dem Remain focused campaign to aim at.
    Vauxhall was 80.7% Remain according to Hanretty. The LibDems start at 6.9%, 43% behind Ms Hoey.

    Mind you, if* they could pick up half the Remain vote, they'd be in with a chance.

    I'll offer you 10-1 if you want.

    * You can't see it, but that's a very big if.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,551
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MTimT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Is Michael Gove standing again?

    Yes.
    Does this open the way for his rehabilitation in the Cabinet post-election, or is he still going to be on May's naughty list?
    He will always be on my naughty list, but I'd love see him back as Justice Secretary.
    Absolutely better than Truss. She is a disgrace.
    She is. She's thick as pig shit. She's so crap she makes Richard Burgon look good.
    Wow...steady on there partner....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Kate Hoey standing again in Vauxhall.

    A target for the London Lib Dem Remain focused campaign to aim at.
    Vauxhall was 80.7% Remain according to Hanretty. The LibDems start at 6.9%, 43% behind Ms Hoey.

    Mind you, if* they could pick up half the Remain vote, they'd be in with a chance.

    I'll offer you 10-1 if you want.

    * You can't see it, but that's a very big if.
    Can I have £50 on that?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,421
    edited April 2017
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    LibDem punters.

    Remember this:

    There are only 40 seats where the LibDems are less than 20% behind the winners.

    Looking only at Labour seats, there are a couple with very large Remain votes: Cambridge, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cardiff Central, Bristol West and Hornsey & Wood Green. Of those, if the LDs were to pick up three or four, that would be a pretty good performance.

    Looking at Conservative seats, there are sizeable (i.e. above 55% Remain votes) in Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Cheadle, Cheltenham, Oxford West & Abingdon and Bath... and... errr... that's about it*. The LibDems appear to be stronger in Leave voting Tory seats than Remain ones. That makes pickups from the Conservatives very tough.

    So, let's assume that the LibDems win all the Labour Seats where there are big Remain votes and they're less than 20% behind. That's five pickups.

    Let's assume every possible Conservative seats. That's another seven (including Lewes).

    Let's also give them all four of the vaguely possible SNP seats.

    And let's add another two seats which the LibDems remarkably pull out of the hat.

    I think any normal person would agree that these are pretty bullish forecasts for the LibDems. And - assuming they keep all their current seats - that puts them on... (drumroll)...

    28 seats.

    And that's in a "best of all possible worlds" scenario**.

    Much more likely they manage three of the five labour seats, two of the Conservative ones, and two SNP ones. We'll give them one for good luck, and assume they hold Richmond and their other seats.

    That gets you to 18. And I'm still probably a bit bullish. My range on their seats would be 14 to 18.

    * Lewes almost makes the cut, so that's a possible for them too.
    ** Assuming no total Labour meltdown.

    RCS called it right on the LDs, or closer to right than most, in 2015, and it all seems plausible. They are so far behind in most places, you need Richmond swings.

    If they get 20 seats and a slew of second place recoveries, they'll be thrilled I think.
    I got Cambridge wrong last time. :-(
    That was a close one though, wasn't it? Certainly you were at least in the same ballpark!
    I have a friend who's a Labour councillor in Cambridge, and she was convinced they'd lost. I shall not be listening to her again.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    How well or badly do you think the government are doing at negotiating Britain's exit from the European Union? (vs -1 wk)

    Net Well : +5 (+6)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited April 2017
    CarlottaVance said:

    PM talking to voters hand picked Tory supporters shocker! It will never do!

    Fixed it for you
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/855020698875699202

    Where? Short of Norwich South there aren't many gains to be had...
    Maybe she likes being surrounded by people who agree with her as much as Corbyn. It should be easier for her to manage.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,421
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Kate Hoey standing again in Vauxhall.

    A target for the London Lib Dem Remain focused campaign to aim at.
    Vauxhall was 80.7% Remain according to Hanretty. The LibDems start at 6.9%, 43% behind Ms Hoey.

    Mind you, if* they could pick up half the Remain vote, they'd be in with a chance.

    I'll offer you 10-1 if you want.

    * You can't see it, but that's a very big if.
    Can I have £50 on that?
    You want £50 at 10-1 on the LibDem's winning Vauxhall?

    Sure, I'll take your money.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Kate Hoey standing again in Vauxhall.

    A target for the London Lib Dem Remain focused campaign to aim at.
    Vauxhall was 80.7% Remain according to Hanretty. The LibDems start at 6.9%, 43% behind Ms Hoey.

    Mind you, if* they could pick up half the Remain vote, they'd be in with a chance.

    I'll offer you 10-1 if you want.

    * You can't see it, but that's a very big if.
    Can I have £50 on that?
    You want £50 at 10-1 on the LibDem's winning Vauxhall?

    Sure, I'll take your money.
    Deal.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/855019242995015681
    https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/855018543016030208
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,193
    https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/855022422399098880

    Hmm, Fillon is a pillock
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    For those who like to plan accordingly.

    Mike's major holiday begins 30th of June till the middle of July.

    We all know what happens when I'm guest editor.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Also Tories surest to vote Tory - Lib dems the least confident:

    Vote for party: Definitely / Probably / Possibly

    Con: 74 / 18 / 7
    Lab: 51 / 29 / 16
    LibD; 31 / 33 / 33
    UKIP: 46 / 31 / 15

    Those Lob Dem numbers....'mile wide and inch deep' springs to mind......chortle....

    LibDem always have the lowest certainty to vote, though. Was true in 2001 and 2005 too when they outperformed expectations.
    Yes, LDs are basically reasonable people, and open to tactical voting. That Lab vote looks squeezable too.
This discussion has been closed.

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