politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No one knows anything. What to do if/when Mrs May wins today’s
Comments
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To save him from angry Lib/Lab switchers. That won't be a problem this time.AndyJS said:Is Clegg guaranteed to win Hallam? Last time he only won because large numbers of Tories voted tactically.
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Holyrood is dangerous due to the different boundaries. There are some important differences in similarly named constituencies between Westminster and Holyrood.Casino_Royale said:Scotland is going to be very interesting this election. It will be about the Union as well as Brexit.
I can see the SNP holding 50+seats (favourite), but I can also see a lower turnout, and some soft SNP'ers (Tartan Tories) defecting who didn't (and don't) want a 2nd referendum right now, but did want a strong Scottish voice in the HoC.
I expect SLab to largely collapse no matter what. But it's possible the SCons do better than expected. I'd be particularly interested in the odds in places like East Renfrewshire.
I'll be looking at the local election results carefully, as well as those from Holyrood last year.0 -
I'd highly recommend people bet into this market immediately
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1311003940 -
Maybe the winner will be the ONLY Westminster MP? Elected after Parliament is prorogued. Sneaky way to become next Prime Minister and rush through some interesting legislation?!RochdalePioneers said:Gorton is brilliant. What will the announcement be from the returning officer? They can't declare that the winner has been returned as MP for Gorton. Parliament will be prorogued - there will be no MPs and no parliament to be returned to. Do they just shake his/her hands and wish them luck for the GE campaigning which starts the same day?
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Worth remembering that BQ dominance over Quebec lasted from 1993 until 2011. Nearly 20 years (there were fluctuations in strength but they remained the major player throughout). I think the SNP would be happy with that if we start the clock from 2011 and their majority Holyrood election. Could mean SNP dominance until late 2020s!williamglenn said:
The context for Scotland and Quebec is very different, not least because of the existence of the European Union and the unresolved political pressures of Brexit. I'd be wary of drawing any parallels.YBarddCwsc said:The BQ once dominated francophone Quebec in the same way that the SNP now dominate Scotland. The BQ took took every francophone riding in 1993. They now hold about five.
There is a peak, because there always is.
There will be a peak for the SNP, but that is not the same as saying that they will not reach the summit.0 -
Everyone I know who's met Jo has been extremely impressed with her. But. I simply don't see the LibDem strength in East Dumbartonshire. My guess is that Jo will end up in the low 30s, against 40 odd for the SNP.MarkSenior said:
Im pretty sure Jo Swinson wants her seat back and will be the Lib Dem candidatercs1000 said:
The Scottish Parliament seats that make up East Dumbartonshire have not shown (big) moves to the LDs. Jo Swinson also saw her vote hold up remarkably well in 2015.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
East Dunbartonshire, East Ren are the next most vulnerable. John Nicolson has been quite high profile, would be interesting to see if Jo Swinson fancies another go at her old constituency.Alistair said:
BRS, Edinbugh West, Fife NE. After that I'd need to check my spreadsheets.Patrick said:
I suspect that the LDs will fall back in East Dumbartonshire in June. My view; comfortable SNP hold.0 -
It wasn't just that. It was him using the Conservative Party (its MPs, members and voters) as pawns in tactically positioning himself to naturally inherit the premiership following the GE2015 victory, aided and abetted by Cameron.Patrick said:
Yes. Probably 1/3 of the country were somewhat Eurosceptic in a non-energetic sort of way. No love for EU but fearful the exit might be alot of hassle. And then the fanatics Dave n Ozzy turned up 'getting medieval on peoples' asses' about it. Many instinctive leavers were bullied into the Remain camp. People like Sajid Javid. Osborne was a fucking disgrace during the referendum. He made the right call today. His political future died on June 23rd last year.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Osborne has been responsible for a lot of people's "not their finest hour"MarqueeMark said:
Don't get me wrong, I really like Johnny Mercer - and he has a huge commitment to his seat and to Plymouth. But I suspect he is looking a little forlornly at the job offer from Osborne he has in his wallet, after taking the soundings of his constituency on Brexit, being told to go Leave - and then siding with Remain. Not his finest hour.Tissue_Price said:
Here, have this:TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm meeting someone from Team Osborne in a bit, that'll be my recovery.GIN1138 said:
Guess you don't want to talk about the end of Osborne's political career... We're all here for you when your ready to "open up" though.TheScreamingEagles said:
A Tory majority of 90 against Corbyn seems very disappointing for Mrs May.TheScreamingEagles said:
100 plus is the target.
https://twitter.com/JohnnyMercerMP/status/854664135874838528
He should be appointed as Special Envoy to Buckle Island for a short while.
Say 30-40 years.0 -
One of her handicaps last time was indeed being Mr Balls. With him out of the way that is one problem she doesn't have. Another was that she didn't seem to have anything remotely novel or interesting to say. Whoever next leads Labour has some big, potentially insurmountable, problems to tackle.stjohn said:
T.P. Hmmm ....Tissue_Price said:
Given Cooper is clearly revving up to stand [check out the price movement today] I suspect there is your answer.stjohn said:Well I've just acted to ensure Ed Balls will shortly announce he is not standing in the General Election. I've backed him to be next Labour leader at 100/1.
The biggest hurdle for this bet to deliver is, of course, him deciding to stand. But if he does I think the bet has a great chance of delivering. If he secures a reasonable seat he should win it. Labour are going to do badly and Corbyn, at last, will be forced out. Balls would then be the most serious candidate for the Labour leadership and would be untainted by "disloyalty" to Corbyn.
Go on Ed!
LABOUR: DRAFT BALLS.
Agreed, not encouraging for my bet.
She wasn't a very good candidate last time though - so hopefully wisdom will prevail.0 -
Important French Presidential Betting Post
Pamela Anderson Weighs Into French Presidential Race on Behalf of Julian Assange
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/pamela-anderson-weighs-french-presidential-race-behalf-julian-assange-n7481510 -
To be added to our Brexit bill perhaps.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Rental costs of many millions are thoughScott_P said:Meanwhile, is the (ex) Minister for Brexit listening?
https://twitter.com/eu_commission/status/8546875282549186570 -
When should we expect the result of the vote?0
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East Dumbartonshire saw massive tactical voting for Swinson and also a huge turnout increase, 82% turnout which is monster. Will the Surging Cons keep tactically voting and will SNP voters turnout?rcs1000 said:
The Scottish Parliament seats that make up East Dumbartonshire have not shown (big) moves to the LDs. Jo Swinson also saw her vote hold up remarkably well in 2015.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
East Dunbartonshire, East Ren are the next most vulnerable. John Nicolson has been quite high profile, would be interesting to see if Jo Swinson fancies another go at her old constituency.Alistair said:
BRS, Edinbugh West, Fife NE. After that I'd need to check my spreadsheets.Patrick said:
I suspect that the LDs will fall back in East Dumbartonshire in June. My view; comfortable SNP hold.
It's one of the reasons why I think turnout is so important for working out if the SNP will lose a scant few or a large handful of seats.0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.0
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Just how will Corbyn be forced out?stjohn said:Well I've just acted to ensure Ed Balls will shortly announce he is not standing in the General Election. I've backed him to be next Labour leader at 100/1.
The biggest hurdle for this bet to deliver is, of course, him deciding to stand. But if he does I think the bet has a great chance of delivering. If he secures a reasonable seat he should win it. Labour are going to do badly and Corbyn, at last, will be forced out. Balls would then be the most serious candidate for the Labour leadership and would be untainted by "disloyalty" to Corbyn.
Go on Ed!
LABOUR: DRAFT BALLS.
He resigns - that is clear and easy, but will he (before the rule book is changed)?
If he is forced is it certain that the membership (who are not all worked up about 'power') will not back him or one of his type again?
While I think this election is great news for Labour and a chance to purge itself of Corbyism for its long term benefit, that may not be the result.0 -
Was there not an episode of Star Trek TOS where people voluntarily committed suicide by entering disintegration booths because a computer decided they had died in a virtual battle?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Operation Ten-Go, 2017 styleScott_P said:And they are voting now. Labour MPs voting to end their careers by following TMay through the lobbies.
Can't wait to see that on their election posters. The optics are brilliant, right?
The HoC report reminded me of it for some reason 0 -
I'm green on Balls, Thornberry, Kinnock and (thanks PB this morning) Ashworth.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I think he's +200 in my book so by all means, go ahead...Casino_Royale said:
I can't work out whether he's a broken reed, or a man with a plan who's waiting for the right time.stjohn said:Well I've just acted to ensure Ed Balls will shortly announce he is not standing in the General Election. I've backed him to be next Labour leader at 100/1.
The biggest hurdle for this bet to deliver is, of course, him deciding to stand. But if he does I think the bet has a great chance of delivering. If he secures a reasonable seat he should win it. Labour are going to do badly and Corbyn, at last, will be forced out. Balls would then be the most serious candidate for the Labour leadership and would be untainted by "disloyalty" to Corbyn.
Go on Ed!
LABOUR: DRAFT BALLS.
If I had to guess, I'd say the latter, but his confidence has been shattered by losing his seat two years ago, and he's probably trying to support Yvette's ambitions.
He needs a prod.
His decapitation two years ago was what convinced me to put more than pennies on the mayoralty.0 -
Not just any councillor, he is Balustrade Lanyard, a social media legend!Theuniondivvie said:
Her hubby is Glasgow's sole (currently) SCon councillor - love & its fruition across the barricades.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Natalie McGarry MP is OK, she's tweeted to say she fainted and paramedics attended to her, has announced pregnancy.
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I think May's ambush (less than 27 hours notice) on an early GE was well thought through.
It's given Corbyn's Labour (which usually takes 6 hours just to work out how to say boo to a goose) no time to respond, or for his opponents within the PLP to organise an alternative strategy in lieu of his leadership.0 -
Christmas comes early for the Labour turkeys...0
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People who hate the SNP reallllllly hate the SNP.IanB2 said:
The SNP vote share will surely fall, given that they are the incumbents, and not all their supporters voted Remain.Casino_Royale said:Scotland is going to be very interesting this election. It will be about the Union as well as Brexit.
I can see the SNP holding 50+seats (favourite), but I can also see a lower turnout, and some soft SNP'ers (Tartan Tories) defecting who didn't (and don't) want a 2nd referendum right now, but did want a strong Scottish voice in the HoC.
I expect SLab to largely collapse no matter what. But it's possible the SCons do better than expected. I'd be particularly interested in the odds in places like East Renfrewshire.
I'll be looking at the local election results carefully, as well as those from Holyrood last year.
Nevertheless there was a fair degree of anti-SNP tactical voting last time, which probably helped the three non-SNP MPs hold on. My sense is that this may unwind this time, because the differences between the other parties are much sharper and I don't get the feeling the SNP is actively disliked.0 -
Smashed it0
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13 voted against. That is hilarious.0
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Only 13 noBig_G_NorthWales said:Smashed it
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Ayes 522
Noes 130 -
A Taste Of ArmageddonBeverley_C said:
Was there not an episode of Star Trek TOS where people voluntarily committed suicide by entering disintegration booths because a computer decided they had died in a virtual battle?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Operation Ten-Go, 2017 styleScott_P said:And they are voting now. Labour MPs voting to end their careers by following TMay through the lobbies.
Can't wait to see that on their election posters. The optics are brilliant, right?
The HoC report reminded me of it for some reason
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Taste_of_Armageddon0 -
Commons vote 522 v 130
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Anyone know what the swing was in the Georgia-6th distrrict last night? The dem was 2% short but what was the swing?0
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Those 13 are going to be reminded of being Frit every day of the election, me thanks...0
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God - Who were the 13?0
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13 non-turkeys on the Labour benches.0
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Small wonder that Laddies have chopped their LibDem 30 - 39 seat band odds back from 8/1 to 9/2. Might be worth a bit of insurance at 12/1 on their 40 - 49 seat band, but then again perhaps not.Patrick said:
Btw Hills are offering odds of 10/11 either way on the GE turnout being over or under 63%. Any thoughts anyone?0 -
I've only either (a) laid candidates (b) back at odds greater than 100/1 at £2 or (c) backed to cancel a lay. This means that my book is green on all but a handful - Lewis and DavidM particularly.TOPPING said:
I'm green on Balls, Thornberry, Kinnock and (thanks PB this morning) Ashworth.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I think he's +200 in my book so by all means, go ahead...Casino_Royale said:
I can't work out whether he's a broken reed, or a man with a plan who's waiting for the right time.stjohn said:Well I've just acted to ensure Ed Balls will shortly announce he is not standing in the General Election. I've backed him to be next Labour leader at 100/1.
The biggest hurdle for this bet to deliver is, of course, him deciding to stand. But if he does I think the bet has a great chance of delivering. If he secures a reasonable seat he should win it. Labour are going to do badly and Corbyn, at last, will be forced out. Balls would then be the most serious candidate for the Labour leadership and would be untainted by "disloyalty" to Corbyn.
Go on Ed!
LABOUR: DRAFT BALLS.
If I had to guess, I'd say the latter, but his confidence has been shattered by losing his seat two years ago, and he's probably trying to support Yvette's ambitions.
He needs a prod.
His decapitation two years ago was what convinced me to put more than pennies on the mayoralty.0 -
It'll be an interesting contest, for sure. The seat was first out of 650 for highest turnout in 2015, which shows the ground game both LDs and Nats played last time. As a straight re-match between the two of them, the 20% of the vote that the Tories and Labour got between them is surely going to come under pressure, which will work in Jo's favour.rcs1000 said:
Everyone I know who's met Jo has been extremely impressed with her. But. I simply don't see the LibDem strength in East Dumbartonshire. My guess is that Jo will end up in the low 30s, against 40 odd for the SNP.MarkSenior said:
Im pretty sure Jo Swinson wants her seat back and will be the Lib Dem candidatercs1000 said:
The Scottish Parliament seats that make up East Dumbartonshire have not shown (big) moves to the LDs. Jo Swinson also saw her vote hold up remarkably well in 2015.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
East Dunbartonshire, East Ren are the next most vulnerable. John Nicolson has been quite high profile, would be interesting to see if Jo Swinson fancies another go at her old constituency.Alistair said:
BRS, Edinbugh West, Fife NE. After that I'd need to check my spreadsheets.Patrick said:
I suspect that the LDs will fall back in East Dumbartonshire in June. My view; comfortable SNP hold.0 -
Think their names will be all over the press tomorrowPatrick said:God - Who were the 13?
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Daily Mail reporting that the £13bn DfiD spend is not going to survive in the Tory manifesto. Yay!0
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Awoke just in time for the good news
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I have my turkey baster on standbyBig_G_NorthWales said:
Only 13 noBig_G_NorthWales said:Smashed it
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I think and hope that after a gruelling election campaign and then a pumelling result he will finally, finally give up the ghost and step aside - on or shortly after 8th June.philiph said:
Just how will Corbyn be forced out?stjohn said:Well I've just acted to ensure Ed Balls will shortly announce he is not standing in the General Election. I've backed him to be next Labour leader at 100/1.
The biggest hurdle for this bet to deliver is, of course, him deciding to stand. But if he does I think the bet has a great chance of delivering. If he secures a reasonable seat he should win it. Labour are going to do badly and Corbyn, at last, will be forced out. Balls would then be the most serious candidate for the Labour leadership and would be untainted by "disloyalty" to Corbyn.
Go on Ed!
LABOUR: DRAFT BALLS.
He resigns - that is clear and easy, but will he (before the rule book is changed)?
If he is forced is it certain that the membership (who are not all worked up about 'power') will not back him or one of his type again?
While I think this election is great news for Labour and a chance to purge itself of Corbyism for its long term benefit, that may not be the result.0 -
Over for me - a clear choice and more engagement with politics post EU Ref. Against that it is a foregone conclusion, but I reckon we might beat the 66.4% from last time. There is also a possible technical effect from a "cleaner" register.peter_from_putney said:
Small wonder that Laddies have chopped their LibDem 30 - 39 seat band odds back from 8/1 to 9/2. Might be worth a bit of insurance at 12/1 on their 40 - 49 seat band, but then again perhaps not.Patrick said:
Btw Hills are offering odds of 10/11 either way on the GE turnout being over or under 63%. Any thoughts anyone?0 -
Mr. Putney, interesting, I preferred to hedge on the low side of that. Lib Dems getting 40+ would be dramatic. Not impossible, of course.
Mr. Patrick, that's good news.0 -
Well they should all be invited really, the same 7 as ITV in 2015, and a separate NI debate. It's not ideal but is the only way to avoid those issues (of course that may not stop other even smaller parties throwing a spanner in the works).GIN1138 said:
Still think the whole thing will collapse in to recriminations and legal challenges from UKIP, SNP, Plaid, etc and time will run out.Scott_P said:0 -
In November, Donald Trump only won the district by 1.5 percentage points even as GOP District 6 incumbent Tom Price won by 24 points.nunu said:Anyone know what the swing was in the Georgia-6th distrrict last night? The dem was 2% short but what was the swing?
As a special election, with no incumbency effect, I'd look at the Trump numbers as the starting point. i.e. this is effectively a referendum on Trump and so should be eminently winnable for the Dems. It is something of a failure not to have taken it on the first ballot.0 -
Similiar strategy here, I did back Starmer yesterday at 7-1 mind to fill a bit of a hole I had. He probably deserves (weak) favoritism.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I've only either (a) laid candidates (b) back at odds greater than 100/1 at £2 or (c) backed to cancel a lay. This means that my book is green on all but a handful - Lewis and DavidM particularly.TOPPING said:
I'm green on Balls, Thornberry, Kinnock and (thanks PB this morning) Ashworth.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I think he's +200 in my book so by all means, go ahead...Casino_Royale said:
I can't work out whether he's a broken reed, or a man with a plan who's waiting for the right time.stjohn said:Well I've just acted to ensure Ed Balls will shortly announce he is not standing in the General Election. I've backed him to be next Labour leader at 100/1.
The biggest hurdle for this bet to deliver is, of course, him deciding to stand. But if he does I think the bet has a great chance of delivering. If he secures a reasonable seat he should win it. Labour are going to do badly and Corbyn, at last, will be forced out. Balls would then be the most serious candidate for the Labour leadership and would be untainted by "disloyalty" to Corbyn.
Go on Ed!
LABOUR: DRAFT BALLS.
If I had to guess, I'd say the latter, but his confidence has been shattered by losing his seat two years ago, and he's probably trying to support Yvette's ambitions.
He needs a prod.
His decapitation two years ago was what convinced me to put more than pennies on the mayoralty.0 -
Betfair's "LibDem 19 seats or more" at 1.29 looks like good value.peter_from_putney said:
Small wonder that Laddies have chopped their LibDem 30 - 39 seat band odds back from 8/1 to 9/2. Might be worth a bit of insurance at 12/1 on their 40 - 49 seat band, but then again perhaps not.Patrick said:
Btw Hills are offering odds of 10/11 either way on the GE turnout being over or under 63%. Any thoughts anyone?0 -
He won't stand against his wife and his wife has been the most effective MP on the opposition benches recently. Labour is also due a female leader, being the only party apart from the Lib Dems never to have had one.stjohn said:Well I've just acted to ensure Ed Balls will shortly announce he is not standing in the General Election. I've backed him to be next Labour leader at 100/1.
The biggest hurdle for this bet to deliver is, of course, him deciding to stand. But if he does I think the bet has a great chance of delivering. If he secures a reasonable seat he should win it. Labour are going to do badly and Corbyn, at last, will be forced out. Balls would then be the most serious candidate for the Labour leadership and would be untainted by "disloyalty" to Corbyn.
Go on Ed!
LABOUR: DRAFT BALLS.
On that basis, I don't think he'll return.
However, 100/1 is good value anyway because if he does stand as an MP then as long as he wins, he'll come under huge pressure to run and his price will tumble anyway.0 -
https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/854693887516041217
Ken Clarke not retiring, or has La Soubry had a good lunch?0 -
Ken Clarke to stand again.0
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No, it's really not good news.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Putney, interesting, I preferred to hedge on the low side of that. Lib Dems getting 40+ would be dramatic. Not impossible, of course.
Mr. Patrick, that's good news.0 -
Hooray!AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Ken Clarke to stand again.
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Triple lock to go too, and pledges on NI and income tax according to the Times this AM.Patrick said:Daily Mail reporting that the £13bn DfiD spend is not going to survive in the Tory manifesto. Yay!
May is going all Erdogan. She wants complete authority to sell her pig in a poke.-1 -
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she would be mad to end the triple lockfoxinsoxuk said:
Triple lock to go too, and pledges on NI and income tax according to the Times this AM.Patrick said:Daily Mail reporting that the £13bn DfiD spend is not going to survive in the Tory manifesto. Yay!
May is going all Erdogan. She wants complete authority to sell her pig in a poke.0 -
With a bit of luck he will have a heart attack over the next two weeks.stjohn said:
I think and hope that after a gruelling election campaign and then a pumelling result he will finally, finally give up the ghost and step aside - on or shortly after 8th June.philiph said:
Just how will Corbyn be forced out?stjohn said:Well I've just acted to ensure Ed Balls will shortly announce he is not standing in the General Election. I've backed him to be next Labour leader at 100/1.
The biggest hurdle for this bet to deliver is, of course, him deciding to stand. But if he does I think the bet has a great chance of delivering. If he secures a reasonable seat he should win it. Labour are going to do badly and Corbyn, at last, will be forced out. Balls would then be the most serious candidate for the Labour leadership and would be untainted by "disloyalty" to Corbyn.
Go on Ed!
LABOUR: DRAFT BALLS.
He resigns - that is clear and easy, but will he (before the rule book is changed)?
If he is forced is it certain that the membership (who are not all worked up about 'power') will not back him or one of his type again?
While I think this election is great news for Labour and a chance to purge itself of Corbyism for its long term benefit, that may not be the result.0 -
She's proposed changes to the powers of the PM?foxinsoxuk said:
Triple lock to go too, and pledges on NI and income tax according to the Times this AM.Patrick said:Daily Mail reporting that the £13bn DfiD spend is not going to survive in the Tory manifesto. Yay!
May is going all Erdogan. She wants complete authority to sell her pig in a poke.0 -
@TheRedRag: Dennis Skinner just voted to keep the Tory government in place until May 2020 unchallenged. How surreal.0
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But the Tories are surging - they got 15.5% in 2010 and 16.5% in 2005. They clearly leant their vote to LD as anti-SNP tactical votes. Are they really going to want to miss out on the glorious Scon revolution?IanB2 said:
It'll be an interesting contest, for sure. The seat was first out of 650 for highest turnout in 2015, which shows the ground game both LDs and Nats played last time. As a straight re-match between the two of them, the 20% of the vote that the Tories and Labour got between them is surely going to come under pressure, which will work in Jo's favour.rcs1000 said:
Everyone I know who's met Jo has been extremely impressed with her. But. I simply don't see the LibDem strength in East Dumbartonshire. My guess is that Jo will end up in the low 30s, against 40 odd for the SNP.MarkSenior said:
Im pretty sure Jo Swinson wants her seat back and will be the Lib Dem candidatercs1000 said:
The Scottish Parliament seats that make up East Dumbartonshire have not shown (big) moves to the LDs. Jo Swinson also saw her vote hold up remarkably well in 2015.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
East Dunbartonshire, East Ren are the next most vulnerable. John Nicolson has been quite high profile, would be interesting to see if Jo Swinson fancies another go at her old constituency.Alistair said:
BRS, Edinbugh West, Fife NE. After that I'd need to check my spreadsheets.Patrick said:
I suspect that the LDs will fall back in East Dumbartonshire in June. My view; comfortable SNP hold.0 -
Mad to say it. But equally mad to promise to keep it.SquareRoot said:
she would be mad to end the triple lockfoxinsoxuk said:
Triple lock to go too, and pledges on NI and income tax according to the Times this AM.Patrick said:Daily Mail reporting that the £13bn DfiD spend is not going to survive in the Tory manifesto. Yay!
May is going all Erdogan. She wants complete authority to sell her pig in a poke.
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In Edinburgh SW, popular Labour councillor Ricky Henderson (2015 candidate) is (was?) due to contest the council election.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
The Tories haven't held Edinburgh South at WM since 1983. Whilst there are plenty of Tory minded pensioners in Morningside/the Grange, much of the constituency is suburbs/housing schemes.AndyJS said:
Bristol West: LabTissue_Price said:A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
Edinburgh South: Con
Edinburgh SW: SNP
Heywood: Lab
Norwich South: Lab
I'd expect some loss of Lab votes back to the Tories, but Tory numbers in this seat have only been over 10k once since '92.
If the SNP can source a decent candidate, I'd expect to see a Lab> Tory swing and the SNP to take the seat.
Most likely chance of an SNP loss in the Lothians is Edin West.
No idea what the local parties will do in these situations - anyone have experience of similar situations?0 -
If Brexit doesn't change the powers of the PM, what's the point?RobD said:
She's proposed changes to the powers of the PM?foxinsoxuk said:
Triple lock to go too, and pledges on NI and income tax according to the Times this AM.Patrick said:Daily Mail reporting that the £13bn DfiD spend is not going to survive in the Tory manifesto. Yay!
May is going all Erdogan. She wants complete authority to sell her pig in a poke.0 -
As strategic geniuses.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Think their names will be all over the press tomorrowPatrick said:God - Who were the 13?
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Life imitating art with a title like thatTheScreamingEagles said:
A Taste Of ArmageddonBeverley_C said:
Was there not an episode of Star Trek TOS where people voluntarily committed suicide by entering disintegration booths because a computer decided they had died in a virtual battle?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Operation Ten-Go, 2017 styleScott_P said:And they are voting now. Labour MPs voting to end their careers by following TMay through the lobbies.
Can't wait to see that on their election posters. The optics are brilliant, right?
The HoC report reminded me of it for some reason
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Taste_of_Armageddon 0 -
Really? I've stuck another £100 there if you want it (it wasn't my money originally).IanB2 said:
Betfair's "LibDem 19 seats or more" at 1.29 looks like good value.peter_from_putney said:
Small wonder that Laddies have chopped their LibDem 30 - 39 seat band odds back from 8/1 to 9/2. Might be worth a bit of insurance at 12/1 on their 40 - 49 seat band, but then again perhaps not.Patrick said:
Btw Hills are offering odds of 10/11 either way on the GE turnout being over or under 63%. Any thoughts anyone?0 -
Wait.. I thought we were always fully sovereign...williamglenn said:
If Brexit doesn't change the powers of the PM, what's the point?RobD said:
She's proposed changes to the powers of the PM?foxinsoxuk said:
Triple lock to go too, and pledges on NI and income tax according to the Times this AM.Patrick said:Daily Mail reporting that the £13bn DfiD spend is not going to survive in the Tory manifesto. Yay!
May is going all Erdogan. She wants complete authority to sell her pig in a poke. 0 -
I think she's learned the hard way, via a fuck-up by her chancellor, that silly manifesto promises are just that, silly. The triple-lock is not affordable. We want freedom to reshape the tax system for the way the economy actually works.foxinsoxuk said:
Triple lock to go too, and pledges on NI and income tax according to the Times this AM.Patrick said:Daily Mail reporting that the £13bn DfiD spend is not going to survive in the Tory manifesto. Yay!
May is going all Erdogan. She wants complete authority to sell her pig in a poke.
0 -
secondedwilliamglenn said:
Hooray!AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Ken Clarke to stand again.
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I think that's being fiscally sensible.foxinsoxuk said:
Triple lock to go too, and pledges on NI and income tax according to the Times this AM.Patrick said:Daily Mail reporting that the £13bn DfiD spend is not going to survive in the Tory manifesto. Yay!
May is going all Erdogan. She wants complete authority to sell her pig in a poke.0 -
Lol at the (if a Tory was 3rd then vote for them) boxout. I hope this is as much fun as the tactical voting wheel last time out.dr_spyn said:Tactical voting in Scotland.
https://twitter.com/graeme_from_IT/status/8546906005280931840 -
If Theresa was a new CEO i believe the correct description of her actions would be kitchen sinking...foxinsoxuk said:
Triple lock to go too, and pledges on NI and income tax according to the Times this AM.Patrick said:Daily Mail reporting that the £13bn DfiD spend is not going to survive in the Tory manifesto. Yay!
May is going all Erdogan. She wants complete authority to sell her pig in a poke.0 -
Standing for which party though?dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/854693887516041217
Ken Clarke not retiring, or has La Soubry had a good lunch?0 -
It was in the Times (paper edition).SquareRoot said:
she would be mad to end the triple lockfoxinsoxuk said:
Triple lock to go too, and pledges on NI and income tax according to the Times this AM.Patrick said:Daily Mail reporting that the £13bn DfiD spend is not going to survive in the Tory manifesto. Yay!
May is going all Erdogan. She wants complete authority to sell her pig in a poke.
She wants to clear the decks so there can be no restraint on her actions.
0 -
There will be loads of examples of this type of situation given that the councils are in a fortnight.sarissa said:
In Edinburgh SW, popular Labour councillor Ricky Henderson (2015 candidate) is (was?) due to contest the council election.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
The Tories haven't held Edinburgh South at WM since 1983. Whilst there are plenty of Tory minded pensioners in Morningside/the Grange, much of the constituency is suburbs/housing schemes.AndyJS said:
Bristol West: LabTissue_Price said:A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
Edinburgh South: Con
Edinburgh SW: SNP
Heywood: Lab
Norwich South: Lab
I'd expect some loss of Lab votes back to the Tories, but Tory numbers in this seat have only been over 10k once since '92.
If the SNP can source a decent candidate, I'd expect to see a Lab> Tory swing and the SNP to take the seat.
Most likely chance of an SNP loss in the Lothians is Edin West.
No idea what the local parties will do in these situations - anyone have experience of similar situations?
I guess they have to go through with it, then resign the council seat if they win at WM? Not that many UK parliamentary seats in Scotland are actually likely to change hands.0 -
I did think it slightly odd that Ken wasn't given a question at PMQs, if it really was his swansong from the Commons.0
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0
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Here we go...dr_spyn said: 0 -
I hope Graeme isn't doing my IT, having coded the logic so bizarrely and then suggesting something else in the comments!Alistair said:
Lol at the (if a Tory was 3rd then vote for them) boxout. I hope this is as much fun as the tactical voting wheel last time out.dr_spyn said:Tactical voting in Scotland.
https://twitter.com/graeme_from_IT/status/8546906005280931840 -
I have taken half of it; I had a reasonable position already.Tissue_Price said:
Really? I've stuck another £100 there if you want it (it wasn't my money originally).IanB2 said:
Betfair's "LibDem 19 seats or more" at 1.29 looks like good value.peter_from_putney said:
Small wonder that Laddies have chopped their LibDem 30 - 39 seat band odds back from 8/1 to 9/2. Might be worth a bit of insurance at 12/1 on their 40 - 49 seat band, but then again perhaps not.Patrick said:
Btw Hills are offering odds of 10/11 either way on the GE turnout being over or under 63%. Any thoughts anyone?0 -
Mr. RC, welcome to the site. Kitchen sinking?0
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Why am I not surprised Dennis Skinner is on that list?dr_spyn said:Guido has the 13 names.
https://order-order.com/2017/04/19/13-mps-voted-election/0 -
Off to a decent start with the various wacky races lines on this one.IanB2 said:
I have taken half of it; I had a reasonable position already.Tissue_Price said:
Really? I've stuck another £100 there if you want it (it wasn't my money originally).IanB2 said:
Betfair's "LibDem 19 seats or more" at 1.29 looks like good value.peter_from_putney said:
Small wonder that Laddies have chopped their LibDem 30 - 39 seat band odds back from 8/1 to 9/2. Might be worth a bit of insurance at 12/1 on their 40 - 49 seat band, but then again perhaps not.Patrick said:
Btw Hills are offering odds of 10/11 either way on the GE turnout being over or under 63%. Any thoughts anyone?
0-18 +113.63
19-30 +4.63
30-35 +244.63
36 +224.59
37-39 +104.64
40-49 +29.64
50+ -135.360 -
Bye bye FTPAGIN1138 said: 0 -
Is Ann Clwyd standing down? And what about Skinner - he looked like he was on a day trip from Madame Tussauds at PMQs...dr_spyn said:Guido has the 13 names.
https://order-order.com/2017/04/19/13-mps-voted-election/0 -
She is a politician. She will replace it with something she can sell to pensioners.SquareRoot said:
she would be mad to end the triple lockfoxinsoxuk said:
Triple lock to go too, and pledges on NI and income tax according to the Times this AM.Patrick said:Daily Mail reporting that the £13bn DfiD spend is not going to survive in the Tory manifesto. Yay!
May is going all Erdogan. She wants complete authority to sell her pig in a poke.
I expect she will retain free bus passes and TV licences, and probably the winter fuel allowance, but downgrade it to keeping pace with CPI, or the higher of CPI/earnings growth each year, but not at least 2.5% every year regardless.0 -
Mike Gapes tweeted that he would, but appears to have chickened out. Provided that Guido remembered that each side has to provide two tellers.FrancisUrquhart said:
Why am I not surprised Dennis Skinner is on that list?dr_spyn said:Guido has the 13 names.
https://order-order.com/2017/04/19/13-mps-voted-election/
0 -
I heard on R5 live yesterday that he was in hospital after heart surgery. May his recovery be swift.MarqueeMark said:I did think it slightly odd that Ken wasn't given a question at PMQs, if it really was his swansong from the Commons.
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Who the hell is Lady Hermon? I did a double take cause for a sec I thought it was Lady Harman...FrancisUrquhart said:
Why am I not surprised Dennis Skinner is on that list?dr_spyn said:Guido has the 13 names.
https://order-order.com/2017/04/19/13-mps-voted-election/ 0 -
Lewis?! Weird choice from him.FrancisUrquhart said:
Why am I not surprised Dennis Skinner is on that list?dr_spyn said:Guido has the 13 names.
https://order-order.com/2017/04/19/13-mps-voted-election/0 -
off topic and perhaps unsayable, but it irritates me greatly when we get these public funding appeals (eg. Red Nose Day, some of the DECC appeals). What on earth is the 0.7% for if not precisely that?!Casino_Royale said:
I think that's being fiscally sensible.foxinsoxuk said:
Triple lock to go too, and pledges on NI and income tax according to the Times this AM.Patrick said:Daily Mail reporting that the £13bn DfiD spend is not going to survive in the Tory manifesto. Yay!
May is going all Erdogan. She wants complete authority to sell her pig in a poke.0 -
Clive Lewis the most high profile MP to vote against.0
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In trouble in Norwich SouthTissue_Price said:
Lewis?! Weird choice from him.FrancisUrquhart said:
Why am I not surprised Dennis Skinner is on that list?dr_spyn said:Guido has the 13 names.
https://order-order.com/2017/04/19/13-mps-voted-election/
0 -
So farewell then, Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. You will be sorely missed.
Not.0 -
He is nowPulpstar said:
In trouble in Norwich SouthTissue_Price said:
Lewis?! Weird choice from him.FrancisUrquhart said:
Why am I not surprised Dennis Skinner is on that list?dr_spyn said:Guido has the 13 names.
https://order-order.com/2017/04/19/13-mps-voted-election/
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Skinner's majority is less than 12k these days. Please.FrancisUrquhart said:
Why am I not surprised Dennis Skinner is on that list?dr_spyn said:Guido has the 13 names.
https://order-order.com/2017/04/19/13-mps-voted-election/0 -
He is supposed to be getting married...Tissue_Price said:
Lewis?! Weird choice from him.FrancisUrquhart said:
Why am I not surprised Dennis Skinner is on that list?dr_spyn said:Guido has the 13 names.
https://order-order.com/2017/04/19/13-mps-voted-election/0
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