politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No one knows anything. What to do if/when Mrs May wins today’s
Comments
-
Here, have this:TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm meeting someone from Team Osborne in a bit, that'll be my recovery.GIN1138 said:
Guess you don't want to talk about the end of Osborne's political career... We're all here for you when your ready to "open up" though.TheScreamingEagles said:
A Tory majority of 90 against Corbyn seems very disappointing for Mrs May.TheScreamingEagles said:
100 plus is the target.
https://twitter.com/JohnnyMercerMP/status/8546641358748385280 -
A masterclass in rambling incoherence.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
She's dreadful, unsurprisingly I've never heard of her before.williamglenn said:I hope the Lib Dems put in some effort in St Albans. The current MP is dying on her feet in the Commons.
0 -
1) I'm registered in Manchester Central, I'm voting for Lucy Powell.Pulpstar said:
You have to vote for Clegg, you know it's what Osborne would want you to do.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Turnout would be an interesting market if it does go ahead!Pulpstar said:
Who gives a stuff, some of us have bets on this.MaxPB said:
How can an MP be elected to a dissolved Parliament?Richard_Nabavi said:Don't throw away those betting slips quite yet:
today Manchester’s acting returning officer Joanne Roney said she did not have the legal power to call the [Manchester Gorton byelection] vote off
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/apr/19/election-2017-theresa-may-mps-early-vote-politics-live
13:400 -
Most peculiar, after Mr Liddlington said in the House that she does.Richard_Nabavi said:
Turnout would be an interesting market if it does go ahead!Pulpstar said:
Who gives a stuff, some of us have bets on this.MaxPB said:
How can an MP be elected to a dissolved Parliament?Richard_Nabavi said:Don't throw away those betting slips quite yet:
today Manchester’s acting returning officer Joanne Roney said she did not have the legal power to call the [Manchester Gorton byelection] vote off
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/apr/19/election-2017-theresa-may-mps-early-vote-politics-live
13:400 -
No prices out. Doubt Wes holds tbh.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Have you bet on Ilford North yet?Pulpstar said:
Tail risk.Patrick said:
Though it could be close.
Can you vote Tory this time round Sunil, I'm on overs with Paddy and every little helps. Will let you know if you need to change your vote at any point.0 -
Top trolling....TheScreamingEagles said:
1) I'm registered in Manchester Central, I'm voting for Lucy Powell.Pulpstar said:
You have to vote for Clegg, you know it's what Osborne would want you to do.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Told you Johnny Mercer is fucking brilliant.Tissue_Price said:
Here, have this:TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm meeting someone from Team Osborne in a bit, that'll be my recovery.GIN1138 said:
Guess you don't want to talk about the end of Osborne's political career... We're all here for you when your ready to "open up" though.TheScreamingEagles said:
A Tory majority of 90 against Corbyn seems very disappointing for Mrs May.TheScreamingEagles said:
100 plus is the target.
https://twitter.com/JohnnyMercerMP/status/854664135874838528
Future Tory leader, I've moved from Team Osborne to Team Mercer.0 -
@AlastairMeeks Many thanks for a very interesting article. Probably just about time for a new thread but I'll start wading through the comments.
Good afternoon, everyone.0 -
@THescreamingeagles I love Lucy
? 0 -
@jonwalker121: Birmingham Labour MP Roger Godsiff tells the House of Commons he will vote against the motion to hold an early general election
Why did nobody else think of that...?0 -
About time too.TheScreamingEagles said:
Told you Johnny Mercer is fucking brilliant.Tissue_Price said:
Here, have this:TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm meeting someone from Team Osborne in a bit, that'll be my recovery.GIN1138 said:
Guess you don't want to talk about the end of Osborne's political career... We're all here for you when your ready to "open up" though.TheScreamingEagles said:
A Tory majority of 90 against Corbyn seems very disappointing for Mrs May.TheScreamingEagles said:
100 plus is the target.
https://twitter.com/JohnnyMercerMP/status/854664135874838528
Future Tory leader, I've moved from Team Osborne to Team Mercer.
I'm on Team Patel
0 -
The former Tory MP today announced his intention to (seek to) stand again. Wes has a fight on his hands.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Have you bet on Ilford North yet?Pulpstar said:
Tail risk.Patrick said:0 -
How fickle!TheScreamingEagles said:
Told you Johnny Mercer is fucking brilliant.Tissue_Price said:
Here, have this:TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm meeting someone from Team Osborne in a bit, that'll be my recovery.GIN1138 said:
Guess you don't want to talk about the end of Osborne's political career... We're all here for you when your ready to "open up" though.TheScreamingEagles said:
A Tory majority of 90 against Corbyn seems very disappointing for Mrs May.TheScreamingEagles said:
100 plus is the target.
https://twitter.com/JohnnyMercerMP/status/854664135874838528
Future Tory leader, I've moved from Team Osborne to Team Mercer.0 -
Listening to Frit labour MPs tying themselves in knots trying to explain why they're not voting for an election is a delicious backdrop to a boring afternoon's work....0
-
Corbyn is thick as mince ?Scott_P said:@jonwalker121: Birmingham Labour MP Roger Godsiff tells the House of Commons he will vote against the motion to hold an early general election
Why did nobody else think of that...?0 -
BRS, Edinbugh West, Fife NE. After that I'd need to check my spreadsheets.Patrick said:0 -
Looks like Ilford North can't really lose, they're both excellent choices.IanB2 said:
The former Tory MP today announced his intention to (seek to) stand again. Wes has a fight on his hands.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Have you bet on Ilford North yet?Pulpstar said:
Tail risk.Patrick said:0 -
If that guy can be elected after he died before the first ballot box had been opened, anything is possible.MaxPB said:
How can an MP be elected to a dissolved Parliament?Richard_Nabavi said:Don't throw away those betting slips quite yet:
today Manchester’s acting returning officer Joanne Roney said she did not have the legal power to call the [Manchester Gorton byelection] vote off
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/apr/19/election-2017-theresa-may-mps-early-vote-politics-live
13:400 -
Most likely is your work blocks twitter access, so the content of the link can't be rendered.MarkHopkins said:JonCisBack said:
Many posts (such as the one quoted by Alastair Meeks above) are entirely blank on my screen. When I myself quote them, as I am doing now, I can see it seems to be cut and pastes from twitter, although I still can't read anything useful - this one has a twitter URL with an 18 digit number at the end...so I have no idea what seat is tory target #49AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/election_data/status/854663451582640130
Conservative target number 49.
Why don't they show up on my PC? Using IE, since work have bizarrely blocked us from using Chrome. Is IE just rubbish?
Edit: and after posting it goes back to being blank except for the words "Conservative target number 49."
There's JavaScript that is used on the web page to automatically expand Twitter comments. If that script is blocked from running for some reason (or the original Tweet is deleted), then they just go blank.0 -
Because people will rightly laugh at them?Scott_P said:@jonwalker121: Birmingham Labour MP Roger Godsiff tells the House of Commons he will vote against the motion to hold an early general election
Why did nobody else think of that...?0 -
Bojo Johnson?FrancisUrquhart said:
Very long odds...Labour City of London electing an unpopular Tory Toff...Ain't gonna happen.GarethoftheVale2 said:Wonder what odds you could get on Osborne as next Mayor of London...
0 -
Boris wasn't that unpopular.bobajobPB said:
Bojo Johnson?FrancisUrquhart said:
Very long odds...Labour City of London electing an unpopular Tory Toff...Ain't gonna happen.GarethoftheVale2 said:Wonder what odds you could get on Osborne as next Mayor of London...
0 -
It is amusing to note that when we wake up on 9th June this year, we will barely be 100 days away from the 10th anniversary of this:
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase0 -
Wes is going to struggle to defend his party's platform and leader, given his on-the-record outspoken criticism. The record of the council administration he is still a part of won't help him either.Pulpstar said:
Looks like Ilford North can't really lose, they're both excellent choices.IanB2 said:
The former Tory MP today announced his intention to (seek to) stand again. Wes has a fight on his hands.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Have you bet on Ilford North yet?Pulpstar said:
Tail risk.Patrick said:0 -
I am pleased to say I got on the 30-39 seats band with Ladbrokes at 8/1 last night.0
-
One of the best sites for watching the debate is ParliamentLive. They list the MPs who've been speaking:
http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/8864be1b-659d-4aaa-b5d9-c5d8b6d6c1f40 -
A pulse?NickPalmer said:Opinium did a survey today full of questions about what might make you vote Tory - presumably a Tory-funded private poll.
0 -
I said unpopular Tory Toff...Osborne has never been popular with the public. On the other hand, BoJo for whatever reason people kinda of like, sort of like a giant panda when they do something silly.bobajobPB said:
Bojo Johnson?FrancisUrquhart said:
Very long odds...Labour City of London electing an unpopular Tory Toff...Ain't gonna happen.GarethoftheVale2 said:Wonder what odds you could get on Osborne as next Mayor of London...
Also London is ever moving more Labour, and aren't we all a bit sick of posh boys these days...and Goldsmith....I mean really Goldsmith...0 -
East Dunbartonshire, East Ren are the next most vulnerable. John Nicolson has been quite high profile, would be interesting to see if Jo Swinson fancies another go at her old constituency.Alistair said:
BRS, Edinbugh West, Fife NE. After that I'd need to check my spreadsheets.Patrick said:
0 -
Surely anyone who put their name to that would be too shame faced to ever stand for public office again....Casino_Royale said:It is amusing to note that when we wake up on 9th June this year, we will barely be 100 days away from the 10th anniversary of this:
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
Does anyone know what happened to Mr. S. Simon?0 -
Sunil mean "blue" after all!Pulpstar said:
No prices out. Doubt Wes holds tbh.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Have you bet on Ilford North yet?Pulpstar said:
Tail risk.Patrick said:
Though it could be close.
Can you vote Tory this time round Sunil, I'm on overs with Paddy and every little helps. Will let you know if you need to change your vote at any point.
0 -
@paulwaugh: Corbyn: "I welcome ITV's decision to attempt to hold a TV debate with the Prime Minister."
Corbyn does politics right, for possibly the first and last time in his career0 -
Don't get me wrong, I really like Johnny Mercer - and he has a huge commitment to his seat and to Plymouth. But I suspect he is looking a little forlornly at the job offer from Osborne he has in his wallet, after taking the soundings of his constituency on Brexit, being told to go Leave - and then siding with Remain. Not his finest hour.Tissue_Price said:
Here, have this:TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm meeting someone from Team Osborne in a bit, that'll be my recovery.GIN1138 said:
Guess you don't want to talk about the end of Osborne's political career... We're all here for you when your ready to "open up" though.TheScreamingEagles said:
A Tory majority of 90 against Corbyn seems very disappointing for Mrs May.TheScreamingEagles said:
100 plus is the target.
https://twitter.com/JohnnyMercerMP/status/8546641358748385280 -
"Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Labour government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain."
*stifles laughter*0 -
Southport MP John Pugh is standing down. The Tories will be pleased.0
-
If they force no confidence, we could have Corbyn in no10.0
-
arf!Mortimer said:
Surely anyone who put their name to that would be too shame faced to ever stand for public office again....Casino_Royale said:It is amusing to note that when we wake up on 9th June this year, we will barely be 100 days away from the 10th anniversary of this:
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
Does anyone know what happened to Mr. S. Simon?0 -
Not an absolute prerequisite..TOPPING said:
Pulse?NickPalmer said:Opinium did a survey today full of questions about what might make you vote Tory - presumably a Tory-funded private poll.
0 -
I think I've had my Sion Simon moment this year with the election timing !Casino_Royale said:"Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Labour government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain."
*stifles laughter*0 -
NickPalmer said:
Opinium did a survey today full of questions about what might make you vote Tory - presumably a Tory-funded private poll.
Hi Nick – will you be standing in Broxtowe as an emergency 'unity' candidate? Or would rather not oppose good europhile Anna?0 -
-
Osborne has been responsible for a lot of people's "not their finest hour"MarqueeMark said:
Don't get me wrong, I really like Johnny Mercer - and he has a huge commitment to his seat and to Plymouth. But I suspect he is looking a little forlornly at the job offer from Osborne he has in his wallet, after taking the soundings of his constituency on Brexit, being told to go Leave - and then siding with Remain. Not his finest hour.Tissue_Price said:
Here, have this:TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm meeting someone from Team Osborne in a bit, that'll be my recovery.GIN1138 said:
Guess you don't want to talk about the end of Osborne's political career... We're all here for you when your ready to "open up" though.TheScreamingEagles said:
A Tory majority of 90 against Corbyn seems very disappointing for Mrs May.TheScreamingEagles said:
100 plus is the target.
https://twitter.com/JohnnyMercerMP/status/854664135874838528
He should be appointed as Special Envoy to Buckle Island for a short while.
Say 30-40 years.
0 -
-
Natalie McGarry MP is OK, she's tweeted to say she fainted and paramedics attended to her, has announced pregnancy.0
-
-
Dumfries & G, Dunbartonshire E (if Swinson stands), WAK.Alistair said:
BRS, Edinbugh West, Fife NE. After that I'd need to check my spreadsheets.Patrick said:
Surely the SNP vote will largely stand still and the question will be whether or not the voters can work out what to do (or whether they want to!)0 -
The nation (or at least its tv stations) is united.
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/8546840719722700800 -
From a Tory point of view that might be a good thing, scare the bejesus out of the voters.Jonathan said:If they force no confidence, we could have Corbyn in no10.
0 -
Still think the whole thing will collapse in to recriminations and legal challenges from UKIP, SNP, Plaid, etc and time will run out.Scott_P said:0 -
It's quite difficult to assess value at this very early stage with most bookies only just starting to dip their big toes into the water. That said, it's also the time when the braver bookies, acting alone and largely on gut instinct, are more apt to make mistakes.
A bet which caught my eye just now in terms of value was betfred's 150 - 199 seat band for Labour offered at 6/4, which compares with their actual seat win of 232 in 2015.
It seems unlikely to me that they will lose fewer than 33 seats overall, thereby leaving them with a maximum of 199 seats. Equally they appear unlikely to lose more than 82 seats leaving them with a minimum of 150 seats. (Btw if pushed, I'd forecast Labour to win between 180 - 190 seats.)
I've had a score's worth to win £30, but DYOR.0 -
That’s almost a quarter of all Lib Dem MPs today to announce they’re standing down...AndyJS said:Southport MP John Pugh is standing down. The Tories will be pleased.
or to put it another way, er two.0 -
I don't think Maguire has thought through the optics of refusing, given that the election would have happened anyway via a constructive No Con. (This is presumably why we have 7 weeks' notice rather than 5).Scott_P said:0 -
Her hubby is Glasgow's sole (currently) SCon councillor - love & its fruition across the barricades.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Natalie McGarry MP is OK, she's tweeted to say she fainted and paramedics attended to her, has announced pregnancy.
0 -
That theory is about to face a severe test.FrancisUrquhart said:
Also London is ever moving more Labour, and aren't we all a bit sick of posh boys these days...and Goldsmith....I mean really Goldsmith...bobajobPB said:
Bojo Johnson?FrancisUrquhart said:
Very long odds...Labour City of London electing an unpopular Tory Toff...Ain't gonna happen.GarethoftheVale2 said:Wonder what odds you could get on Osborne as next Mayor of London...
0 -
Cycle rickshaw rather than a taxi?SimonStClare said:
That’s almost a quarter of all Lib Dem MPs today to announce they’re standing down...AndyJS said:Southport MP John Pugh is standing down. The Tories will be pleased.
or to put it another way, er two.0 -
100% this. Now is probably the best time for betting the main lines. Or you can keep your powder dry for the constituencies, which will probably be ricktastic.peter_from_putney said:It's quite difficult to assess value at this very early stage with most bookies only just starting to dip their big toes into the water. That said, it's also the time when the braver bookies, acting alone and largely on gut instinct, are more apt to make mistakes.
0 -
None of us can win every time.Pulpstar said:
I think I've had my Sion Simon moment this year with the election timing !Casino_Royale said:"Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Labour government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain."
*stifles laughter*
I got trapped in the ECVs market in November and lost hundreds, even though I was well up on Trump as Next President.0 -
The reason I've gone for a Tory gain is I just can't see the SNP winning this particular constituency. And if Labour are going to lose it, as I think they will, that means the Conservatives are the only party left.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
The Tories haven't held Edinburgh South at WM since 1983. Whilst there are plenty of Tory minded pensioners in Morningside/the Grange, much of the constituency is suburbs/housing schemes.AndyJS said:
Bristol West: LabTissue_Price said:A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
Edinburgh South: Con
Edinburgh SW: SNP
Heywood: Lab
Norwich South: Lab
I'd expect some loss of Lab votes back to the Tories, but Tory numbers in this seat have only been over 10k once since '92.
If the SNP can source a decent candidate, I'd expect to see a Lab> Tory swing and the SNP to take the seat.
Most likely chance of an SNP loss in the Lothians is Edin West.0 -
Now, about ending the Licence Fee.....Scott_P said:0 -
No no it would have been a brilliant strategy and then all Lab would have needed to do would be to send Laura Kuenssberg to visit each household in the UK to explain exactly why.Tissue_Price said:
I don't think Maguire has thought through the optics of refusing, given that the election would have happened anyway via a constructive No Con. (This is presumably why we have 7 weeks' notice rather than 5).Scott_P said:0 -
That's exactly the point (again)Tissue_Price said:I don't think Maguire has thought through the optics of refusing, given that the election would have happened anyway via a constructive No Con.
The optics of a No Con are SO MUCH BETTER for Labour than meekly traipsing through the aye lobby with the Tories.0 -
Who's the other one?SimonStClare said:
That’s almost a quarter of all Lib Dem MPs today to announce they’re standing down...AndyJS said:Southport MP John Pugh is standing down. The Tories will be pleased.
or to put it another way, er two.0 -
The Tories must have known that if they said no to tv debates, the tv companies would do this. They did it in 2015 after all.
The spin from them is it is now defacto standard, despite in our long democratic history we have had only really 1 election with a proper set of tv debates.0 -
Gorton is brilliant. What will the announcement be from the returning officer? They can't declare that the winner has been returned as MP for Gorton. Parliament will be prorogued - there will be no MPs and no parliament to be returned to. Do they just shake his/her hands and wish them luck for the GE campaigning which starts the same day?0
-
On balance I agree with this. Labour's position is so dire the optics of parliamentary games is the least of their worries. Anything that has a chance of exposing Tory splits is worth it.Scott_P said:
That's exactly the point (again)Tissue_Price said:I don't think Maguire has thought through the optics of refusing, given that the election would have happened anyway via a constructive No Con.
The optics of a No Con are SO MUCH BETTER for Labour than meekly traipsing through the aye lobby with the Tories.0 -
Congratulations to her.Scott_P said:0 -
Not really... Would just be set up as a way of getting around the daft fixed term parliament act, which people have always thought was silly anyway.Scott_P said:
That's exactly the point (again)Tissue_Price said:I don't think Maguire has thought through the optics of refusing, given that the election would have happened anyway via a constructive No Con.
The optics of a No Con are SO MUCH BETTER for Labour than meekly traipsing through the aye lobby with the Tories.
Hopefully when TM get's her big majority we can get rid of the constitutional nonsense that is the FTPA.0 -
Yes. Probably 1/3 of the country were somewhat Eurosceptic in a non-energetic sort of way. No love for EU but fearful the exit might be alot of hassle. And then the fanatics Dave n Ozzy turned up 'getting medieval on peoples' asses' about it. Many instinctive leavers were bullied into the Remain camp. People like Sajid Javid. Osborne was a fucking disgrace during the referendum. He made the right call today. His political future died on June 23rd last year.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Osborne has been responsible for a lot of people's "not their finest hour"MarqueeMark said:
Don't get me wrong, I really like Johnny Mercer - and he has a huge commitment to his seat and to Plymouth. But I suspect he is looking a little forlornly at the job offer from Osborne he has in his wallet, after taking the soundings of his constituency on Brexit, being told to go Leave - and then siding with Remain. Not his finest hour.Tissue_Price said:
Here, have this:TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm meeting someone from Team Osborne in a bit, that'll be my recovery.GIN1138 said:
Guess you don't want to talk about the end of Osborne's political career... We're all here for you when your ready to "open up" though.TheScreamingEagles said:
A Tory majority of 90 against Corbyn seems very disappointing for Mrs May.TheScreamingEagles said:
100 plus is the target.
https://twitter.com/JohnnyMercerMP/status/854664135874838528
He should be appointed as Special Envoy to Buckle Island for a short while.
Say 30-40 years.
0 -
Returning officers are absolute sticklers for process. She'll be more clued up on this than David Davis I'd have thought.RochdalePioneers said:Gorton is brilliant. What will the announcement be from the returning officer? They can't declare that the winner has been returned as MP for Gorton. Parliament will be prorogued - there will be no MPs and no parliament to be returned to. Do they just shake his/her hands and wish them luck for the GE campaigning which starts the same day?
0 -
Joanne Roney was previous Chief Exec of Wakefield Council. I can't say I'm surprised with what she's come out with. Not my problem, gov.Richard_Nabavi said:Don't throw away those betting slips quite yet:
today Manchester’s acting returning officer Joanne Roney said she did not have the legal power to call the [Manchester Gorton byelection] vote off
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/apr/19/election-2017-theresa-may-mps-early-vote-politics-live
13:40
At least she's referred the matter to the Commons authorities for a ruling.0 -
And they are voting now. Labour MPs voting to end their careers by following TMay through the lobbies.
Can't wait to see that on their election posters. The optics are brilliant, right?0 -
Scotland is going to be very interesting this election. It will be about the Union as well as Brexit.
I can see the SNP holding 50+seats (favourite), but I can also see a lower turnout, and some soft SNP'ers (Tartan Tories) defecting who didn't (and don't) want a 2nd referendum right now, but did want a strong Scottish voice in the HoC.
I expect SLab to largely collapse no matter what. But it's possible the SCons do better than expected. I'd be particularly interested in the odds in places like East Renfrewshire.
I'll be looking at the local election results carefully, as well as those from Holyrood last year.0 -
On the substance of the tweet... How much of that true?TheScreamingEagles said:
Told you Johnny Mercer is fucking brilliant.Tissue_Price said:
Here, have this:TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm meeting someone from Team Osborne in a bit, that'll be my recovery.GIN1138 said:
Guess you don't want to talk about the end of Osborne's political career... We're all here for you when your ready to "open up" though.TheScreamingEagles said:
A Tory majority of 90 against Corbyn seems very disappointing for Mrs May.TheScreamingEagles said:
100 plus is the target.
https://twitter.com/JohnnyMercerMP/status/854664135874838528
Future Tory leader, I've moved from Team Osborne to Team Mercer.
Recession ended under Gordon Brown. Osborne very very nearly put us back into recession.
Millions were not lifted out of poverty by coalition... (NPI report 2015)
New jobs claim is just about true... I think they just got to 2m new jobs or close enough so i guess that is millions. Parity of esteem- dont know what that means? Funding fell by 8.25% in rreal terms apparently... The airport still isn't sorted although that might be Mays fault... Don't know about the railway.0 -
I fundamentally disagree. They would go into the election have voted not to have it, and this would be brought up in interview after interview. "Why didn't you want this election - was it because you think you'll lose or was it because your leader is a shambles and you can't even recommend him to the public as a Prime Minister?"Scott_P said:
That's exactly the point (again)Tissue_Price said:I don't think Maguire has thought through the optics of refusing, given that the election would have happened anyway via a constructive No Con.
The optics of a No Con are SO MUCH BETTER for Labour than meekly traipsing through the aye lobby with the Tories.0 -
The Scottish Parliament seats that make up East Dumbartonshire have not shown (big) moves to the LDs. Jo Swinson also saw her vote hold up remarkably well in 2015.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
East Dunbartonshire, East Ren are the next most vulnerable. John Nicolson has been quite high profile, would be interesting to see if Jo Swinson fancies another go at her old constituency.Alistair said:
BRS, Edinbugh West, Fife NE. After that I'd need to check my spreadsheets.Patrick said:
I suspect that the LDs will fall back in East Dumbartonshire in June. My view; comfortable SNP hold.0 -
But why will they listen to him?Scott_P said:0 -
Meanwhile, is the (ex) Minister for Brexit listening?
https://twitter.com/eu_commission/status/8546875282549186570 -
malcolmg said:
» show previous quotes
Just a case of when.
aww go on you big jessie, JPJ2 will be enjoying independence from Solihull
tell you what malc since theyre all bored I'll give you a fun bet £20 says Salmond loses his seat proceeds to the site.
Alan, you are on
PS: If you are brave enough, lot of fearties on here re betting on their positions0 -
Surely most bettors would take "void" here... the rules of the game change if it's in he middle of a GE campaign.Pulpstar said:
Returning officers are absolute sticklers for process. She'll be more clued up on this than David Davis I'd have thought.RochdalePioneers said:Gorton is brilliant. What will the announcement be from the returning officer? They can't declare that the winner has been returned as MP for Gorton. Parliament will be prorogued - there will be no MPs and no parliament to be returned to. Do they just shake his/her hands and wish them luck for the GE campaigning which starts the same day?
0 -
Well I've just acted to ensure Ed Balls will shortly announce he is not standing in the General Election. I've backed him to be next Labour leader at 100/1.
The biggest hurdle for this bet to deliver is, of course, him deciding to stand. But if he does I think the bet has a great chance of delivering. If he secures a reasonable seat he should win it. Labour are going to do badly and Corbyn, at last, will be forced out. Balls would then be the most serious candidate for the Labour leadership and would be untainted by "disloyalty" to Corbyn.
Go on Ed!
LABOUR: DRAFT BALLS.0 -
Bleh, I am level green on every candidate on Betfair in both markets.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Surely most bettors would take "void" here... the rules of the game change if it's in he middle of a GE campaign.Pulpstar said:
Returning officers are absolute sticklers for process. She'll be more clued up on this than David Davis I'd have thought.RochdalePioneers said:Gorton is brilliant. What will the announcement be from the returning officer? They can't declare that the winner has been returned as MP for Gorton. Parliament will be prorogued - there will be no MPs and no parliament to be returned to. Do they just shake his/her hands and wish them luck for the GE campaigning which starts the same day?
0 -
No. They would go into this election having voted No Confidence in the Government, instead of voting with the Tories.Tissue_Price said:I fundamentally disagree. They would go into the election have voted not to have it
I know which position I would rather defend on the doorstep0 -
Given Cooper is clearly revving up to stand [check out the price movement today] I suspect there is your answer.stjohn said:Well I've just acted to ensure Ed Balls will shortly announce he is not standing in the General Election. I've backed him to be next Labour leader at 100/1.
The biggest hurdle for this bet to deliver is, of course, him deciding to stand. But if he does I think the bet has a great chance of delivering. If he secures a reasonable seat he should win it. Labour are going to do badly and Corbyn, at last, will be forced out. Balls would then be the most serious candidate for the Labour leadership and would be untainted by "disloyalty" to Corbyn.
Go on Ed!
LABOUR: DRAFT BALLS.0 -
There's a lot at stake. If the SCons do not exceed exceptions, May will not be able to hold the line of using Brexit as an excuse to frustrate the SNP, and the EU will also be watching closely. Elections have consequences.Casino_Royale said:Scotland is going to be very interesting this election. It will be about the Union as well as Brexit.
I can see the SNP holding 50+seats (favourite), but I can also see a lower turnout, and some soft SNP'ers (Tartan Tories) defecting who didn't (and don't) want a 2nd referendum right now, but did want a strong Scottish voice in the HoC.
I expect SLab to largely collapse no matter what. But it's possible the SCons do better than expected. I'd be particularly interested in the odds in places like East Renfrewshire.
I'll be looking at the local election results carefully, as well as those from Holyrood last year.0 -
ON current votes if Con take 5000 votes from Murray (25% of Murray's vote share) then SNP win through the middle. They'd have to get 8000 transfers from Lab for the win.AndyJS said:
The reason I've gone for a Tory gain is I just can't see the SNP winning this particular constituency. And if Labour are going to lose it, as I think they will, that means the Conservatives are the only party left.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
The Tories haven't held Edinburgh South at WM since 1983. Whilst there are plenty of Tory minded pensioners in Morningside/the Grange, much of the constituency is suburbs/housing schemes.AndyJS said:
Bristol West: LabTissue_Price said:A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
Edinburgh South: Con
Edinburgh SW: SNP
Heywood: Lab
Norwich South: Lab
I'd expect some loss of Lab votes back to the Tories, but Tory numbers in this seat have only been over 10k once since '92.
If the SNP can source a decent candidate, I'd expect to see a Lab> Tory swing and the SNP to take the seat.
Most likely chance of an SNP loss in the Lothians is Edin West.0 -
Rental costs of many millions are thoughScott_P said:Meanwhile, is the (ex) Minister for Brexit listening?
https://twitter.com/eu_commission/status/8546875282549186570 -
Operation Ten-Go, 2017 styleScott_P said:And they are voting now. Labour MPs voting to end their careers by following TMay through the lobbies.
Can't wait to see that on their election posters. The optics are brilliant, right? 0 -
I was once involved (as a constituency officer) in a council election where the Con and LD candidates for the ward were having a baby together.Theuniondivvie said:
Her hubby is Glasgow's sole (currently) SCon councillor - love & its fruition across the barricades.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Natalie McGarry MP is OK, she's tweeted to say she fainted and paramedics attended to her, has announced pregnancy.
0 -
I can't work out whether he's a broken reed, or a man with a plan who's waiting for the right time.stjohn said:Well I've just acted to ensure Ed Balls will shortly announce he is not standing in the General Election. I've backed him to be next Labour leader at 100/1.
The biggest hurdle for this bet to deliver is, of course, him deciding to stand. But if he does I think the bet has a great chance of delivering. If he secures a reasonable seat he should win it. Labour are going to do badly and Corbyn, at last, will be forced out. Balls would then be the most serious candidate for the Labour leadership and would be untainted by "disloyalty" to Corbyn.
Go on Ed!
LABOUR: DRAFT BALLS.
If I had to guess, I'd say the latter, but his confidence has been shattered by losing his seat two years ago, and he's probably trying to support Yvette's ambitions.
He needs a prod.0 -
All relocation costs fall to be considered.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Rental costs of many millions are thoughScott_P said:Meanwhile, is the (ex) Minister for Brexit listening?
https://twitter.com/eu_commission/status/8546875282549186570 -
Im pretty sure Jo Swinson wants her seat back and will be the Lib Dem candidatercs1000 said:
The Scottish Parliament seats that make up East Dumbartonshire have not shown (big) moves to the LDs. Jo Swinson also saw her vote hold up remarkably well in 2015.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
East Dunbartonshire, East Ren are the next most vulnerable. John Nicolson has been quite high profile, would be interesting to see if Jo Swinson fancies another go at her old constituency.Alistair said:
BRS, Edinbugh West, Fife NE. After that I'd need to check my spreadsheets.Patrick said:
I suspect that the LDs will fall back in East Dumbartonshire in June. My view; comfortable SNP hold.0 -
Is Clegg guaranteed to win Hallam? Last time he only won because large numbers of Tories voted tactically.0
-
I think he's +200 in my book so by all means, go ahead...Casino_Royale said:
I can't work out whether he's a broken reed, or a man with a plan who's waiting for the right time.stjohn said:Well I've just acted to ensure Ed Balls will shortly announce he is not standing in the General Election. I've backed him to be next Labour leader at 100/1.
The biggest hurdle for this bet to deliver is, of course, him deciding to stand. But if he does I think the bet has a great chance of delivering. If he secures a reasonable seat he should win it. Labour are going to do badly and Corbyn, at last, will be forced out. Balls would then be the most serious candidate for the Labour leadership and would be untainted by "disloyalty" to Corbyn.
Go on Ed!
LABOUR: DRAFT BALLS.
If I had to guess, I'd say the latter, but his confidence has been shattered by losing his seat two years ago, and he's probably trying to support Yvette's ambitions.
He needs a prod.
His decapitation two years ago was what convinced me to put more than pennies on the mayoralty.0 -
The SNP vote share will surely fall, given that they are the incumbents, and not all their supporters voted Remain.Casino_Royale said:Scotland is going to be very interesting this election. It will be about the Union as well as Brexit.
I can see the SNP holding 50+seats (favourite), but I can also see a lower turnout, and some soft SNP'ers (Tartan Tories) defecting who didn't (and don't) want a 2nd referendum right now, but did want a strong Scottish voice in the HoC.
I expect SLab to largely collapse no matter what. But it's possible the SCons do better than expected. I'd be particularly interested in the odds in places like East Renfrewshire.
I'll be looking at the local election results carefully, as well as those from Holyrood last year.
Nevertheless there was a fair degree of anti-SNP tactical voting last time, which probably helped the three non-SNP MPs hold on. My sense is that this may unwind this time, because the differences between the other parties are much sharper and I don't get the feeling the SNP is actively disliked.0 -
The latest Scottish opinion polls show a swing of about 10% from Lab to Con.Alistair said:
ON current votes if Con take 5000 votes from Murray (25% of Murray's vote share) then SNP win through the middle. They'd have to get 8000 transfers from Lab for the win.AndyJS said:
The reason I've gone for a Tory gain is I just can't see the SNP winning this particular constituency. And if Labour are going to lose it, as I think they will, that means the Conservatives are the only party left.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
The Tories haven't held Edinburgh South at WM since 1983. Whilst there are plenty of Tory minded pensioners in Morningside/the Grange, much of the constituency is suburbs/housing schemes.AndyJS said:
Bristol West: LabTissue_Price said:A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
Edinburgh South: Con
Edinburgh SW: SNP
Heywood: Lab
Norwich South: Lab
I'd expect some loss of Lab votes back to the Tories, but Tory numbers in this seat have only been over 10k once since '92.
If the SNP can source a decent candidate, I'd expect to see a Lab> Tory swing and the SNP to take the seat.
Most likely chance of an SNP loss in the Lothians is Edin West.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Scotland0 -
T.P. Hmmm ....Tissue_Price said:
Given Cooper is clearly revving up to stand [check out the price movement today] I suspect there is your answer.stjohn said:Well I've just acted to ensure Ed Balls will shortly announce he is not standing in the General Election. I've backed him to be next Labour leader at 100/1.
The biggest hurdle for this bet to deliver is, of course, him deciding to stand. But if he does I think the bet has a great chance of delivering. If he secures a reasonable seat he should win it. Labour are going to do badly and Corbyn, at last, will be forced out. Balls would then be the most serious candidate for the Labour leadership and would be untainted by "disloyalty" to Corbyn.
Go on Ed!
LABOUR: DRAFT BALLS.
Agreed, not encouraging for my bet.
She wasn't a very good candidate last time though - so hopefully wisdom will prevail.0
![[Deleted User]](https://wd.vanillicon.com/d2ea526b1b06ed109333f390c7ae956b_100.png)
