politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No one knows anything. What to do if/when Mrs May wins today’s
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No one knows anything. What to do if/when Mrs May wins today’s vote
In 2011, Ruth Ellen Brosseau was a bartender in Ottawa, Canada’s capital. Some of her regulars were political activists for the New Democratic Party and when the federal election was looming, they twisted her arm to stand as a paper candidate in a no-hoper constituency in a heavily French-speaking area of Quebec. She didn’t campaign (just as well, since her French wasn’t very good), she didn’t even visit the constituency. During the election campaign she went on holiday in Vegas.
Comments
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PMQs could be interesting today. Will May go after Corbyn hard? Is she capable of doing that?0
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FPT
Won't be as effective this time.FrancisUrquhart said:
In 2015 the polls indicated a Lab/SNP government was very likely.
In 2017 the Tories have a 21% lead in the polls.
The Tories should stick to hammering Corbyn and McDonnell on their IRA/Hamas links.0 -
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Very funny comment on Polly's thread, in response to a pro-Corbynite wondering why the Graun didn't go the whole hog (!) and show Jezza eating a bacon sandwich:
"The way things are going, he'd probably trip over the sandwich, slip on the ketchup and give the bacon to Venezuela as a gift to commemorate worldwide socialism."
LOL0 -
Mr. Eagles, I largely agree, but Sturgeon rubs a lot of people up the wrong way, so the association is another negative for Corbyn.
Mr. Meeks, it'll be interesting to see where Labour's floor is. If they lose seats, which seems eminently possible, this'll be the fifth election in a row they've done so.0 -
I think a decent party rule of thumb for the election will be :
1. Labour will poll worse than their worst opinion poll rating.
2. LibDem substantial higher seat predictions will fail to occur.
3. UKIP vote share likely to halve.
4. SNP retain at least 50 seats.
5. Mrs May and TSE to invest in special edition "landslide" footwear.0 -
Agreed. The SNP are now just a fact of life, you can't really use boogyman tactics over it.TheScreamingEagles said:FPT
Won't be as effective this time.FrancisUrquhart said:
In 2015 the polls indicated a Lab/SNP government was very likely.
In 2017 the Tories have a 21% lead in the polls.
The Tories should stick to hammering Corbyn and McDonnell on their IRA/Hamas links.0 -
A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)0 -
reposted from previous thread...
IG have lib seats at 32-35
is that worth selling?
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Green, Lab, Lab, Lab, Lab (purely down to Lewis)Tissue_Price said:A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)0 -
Heywood & Middleton has to be like Hartlepool and all other seats where Labour were 1st and UKIP 2nd- not a clue how that will play out until later in the election.Tissue_Price said:A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
Edinburgh SW as with all SNP / Labour seats will remain SNP.
Edinburgh South could well go SNP...0 -
Mr. Ilef, that's higher than I imagined. Does make 8 on Lib Dems getting 30-39 seats look good.0
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Which day of the campaign is Ken Livingston due to be reading Mein Kampf on Radio 4 book-at-bedtime?TOPPING said:Very funny comment on Polly's thread, in response to a pro-Corbynite wondering why the Graun didn't go the whole hog (!) and show Jezza eating a bacon sandwich:
"The way things are going, he'd probably trip over the sandwich, slip on the ketchup and give the bacon to Venezuela as a gift to commemorate worldwide socialism."
LOL0 -
Green, Lab, SNP, Tory, Lib Dem perhaps.....TheScreamingEagles said:
Green, Lab, Lab, Lab, Lab (purely down to Lewis)Tissue_Price said:A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)0 -
Every day...rottenborough said:Which day of the campaign is Ken Livingston due to be reading Mein Kampf on Radio 4 book-at-bedtime?
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Regarding Edinburgh South this WIngs Story from a few weeks ago may be relevantTheScreamingEagles said:
Green, Lab, Lab, Lab, Lab (purely down to Lewis)Tissue_Price said:A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
https://wingsoverscotland.com/testing-the-water/0 -
I would bet against Labour in all of them. It is going to be a bloodbath.Tissue_Price said:A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)0 -
Labour were too optimistic in 2015 as well, faffing about in seats as far down as 70 in their target list, when in reality they were struggling to take seats which required a tiny swing. I would have thought targeting would be easier this time though. The Tories had a 40/40 strategy in 2015, so if a major party can cover 80 seats, Labour should be able to run full campaigns in nearly all of the seats they hope to defend.
In terms of resources the Tories need to spread more widely. They need to cover the 4/5 seats where UKIP challenge, the 30 seats where Lib Dems challenge, the 50+ seats they hope to take from Labour, the 4-5 seats they hope to take in Scotland and probably a few Labour facing ones to be safe.0 -
I'll stick my neck out:-Tissue_Price said:A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
1. Lab hold
2. Con gain
3. Lib Dem gain
4. Con gain
5. Lab hold.0 -
@bet365 lines - have at them:
Tories 375.5
Labour 168.5
LD 29.5
SNP 50.5
PC 4.5 (leaning under)
Green 1.5 (leaning under)
UKIP 1/4 no seats
https://www.bet365.com/#/AC/B5/C20008089/D1/E32977607/F2/0 -
I'll add Hartlepool as a Conservative gain, for the same reasons as Heywood & Middleton, as I think UKIP voters will switch en masse to the Conservatives there, and the Labour vote will fall further.Sean_F said:
I'll stick my neck out:-Tissue_Price said:A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
1. Lab hold
2. Con gain
3. Lib Dem gain
4. Con gain
5. Lab hold.0 -
That all sounds about right to me (& I doubt campaigning is going to matter very much).JackW said:I think a decent party rule of thumb for the election will be :
1. Labour will poll worse than their worst opinion poll rating.
2. LibDem substantial higher seat predictions will fail to occur.
3. UKIP vote share likely to halve.
4. SNP retain at least 50 seats.
5. Mrs May and TSE to invest in special edition "landslide" footwear.
One thing that struck me about some of the vox pops since May's announcement was the number of non-Tory voters prepared to contemplate voting for May's party, while at the same time saying they still wouldn't contemplate voting for the Lib Dems because of their support for the coalition...
Can't say I understand the logic, but it's a real thing.0 -
That would be, ummm, spectacular vote share rise for the LDsSean_F said:
I'll stick my neck out:-Tissue_Price said:A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
1. Lab hold
2. Con gain
3. Lib Dem gain
4. Con gain
5. Lab hold.
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1. is contrary to precedent when Labour is under pressure. There are usually disenchanted supporters who when it comes to it stick with the party in the polling booth, as in 1983 and 2010. I would expect Labour's poll rating to be low, but slightly bettered in the actual vote.JackW said:I think a decent party rule of thumb for the election will be :
1. Labour will poll worse than their worst opinion poll rating.
2. LibDem substantial higher seat predictions will fail to occur.
3. UKIP vote share likely to halve.
4. SNP retain at least 50 seats.
5. Mrs May and TSE to invest in special edition "landslide" footwear.
2. Let's wait and see. It depends on whether May's line on Brexit and strengthening her hand is impregnable.
3, 4, (5) all very likely
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I think @Sean_F may have confused this with Edinburgh W (which may well be a LD gain)?Alistair said:
That would be, ummm, spectacular vote share rise for the LDsSean_F said:
I'll stick my neck out:-Tissue_Price said:A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
1. Lab hold
2. Con gain
3. Lib Dem gain
4. Con gain
5. Lab hold.0 -
I am witb you Jack, though on 3) I think that you are too optomistic for UKIP.JackW said:I think a decent party rule of thumb for the election will be :
1. Labour will poll worse than their worst opinion poll rating.
2. LibDem substantial higher seat predictions will fail to occur.
3. UKIP vote share likely to halve.
4. SNP retain at least 50 seats.
5. Mrs May and TSE to invest in special edition "landslide" footwear.0 -
My error. I misread it as Edinburgh West. SNP hold then.Alistair said:
That would be, ummm, spectacular vote share rise for the LDsSean_F said:
I'll stick my neck out:-Tissue_Price said:A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
1. Lab hold
2. Con gain
3. Lib Dem gain
4. Con gain
5. Lab hold.0 -
Afternoon all.
Excellent thread Mr Meeks, thanks. - I quite agree that “No one knows anything” we’re in totally unchartered waters where traditional party loyalties have been fragmented as never before. GE2017 is set to be very unpredictable at a constituency level, although nationally the outcome is more or less assured.0 -
I think the Tories might win it from 3rd.Sean_F said:
My error. I misread it as Edinburgh West. SNP hold then.Alistair said:
That would be, ummm, spectacular vote share rise for the LDsSean_F said:
I'll stick my neck out:-Tissue_Price said:A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
1. Lab hold
2. Con gain
3. Lib Dem gain
4. Con gain
5. Lab hold.0 -
I presume so. If not, I am willing to offer odds!Tissue_Price said:
I think @Sean_F may have confused this with Edinburgh W (which may well be a LD gain)?Alistair said:
That would be, ummm, spectacular vote share rise for the LDsSean_F said:
I'll stick my neck out:-Tissue_Price said:A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
1. Lab hold
2. Con gain
3. Lib Dem gain
4. Con gain
5. Lab hold.
I notice that the Ashcroft polling got Ed South West almost exactly right, only fractionally over estimating LDs and, by the same margin, underestimating SNP.
I'm waiting for some Scotland only polling before having at the Constituency markets.0 -
Why is François Asselineau at such a high price, 120-150 at Betfair? He's getting around 1% in the polls. Hamon is on 8%, Dupont-Aignan on 4%, Poutou on 2%, but no-one is betting on any of them even at 1000.
Asselineau is the only candidate who has promised to pull France out of the EU. Is he receiving some interest from those who want to insure themselves against Le Pen having to withdraw, or what?0 -
London and commuter belt MP's are very luckyisam said:Hornchurch & Upminster up for grabs
https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/8546217805222789130 -
One additional thing worth noting is the Kim Jong Un level of support for the Tories from the oldies. Yes they are the ones that are much more likely to vote, but what about how they are distributed around the country, etc etc etc.
Again I don't think the old style models ever considered support for basically a one party state among a key voting demographic.0 -
I've taken the Lib Dems at under 29.5.Tissue_Price said:@bet365 lines - have at them:
Tories 375.5
Labour 168.5
LD 29.5
SNP 50.5
PC 4.5 (leaning under)
Green 1.5 (leaning under)
UKIP 1/4 no seats
https://www.bet365.com/#/AC/B5/C20008089/D1/E32977607/F2/0 -
Mr. Cyan, I checked the odds this morning and was surprised to see him in fifth place. It's a bit weird.
Anyway, going to be a busy few weeks between two votes in France and the UK General Election.0 -
Tony Blair has written a short article about the election: http://institute.global/news/damage-will-be-huge-if-we-end-brexit-any-cost
Suppose I don't need to summarise the content of that one, really.
For a guy who was so politically astute, I was hoping it might have some insights in that we aren't getting from other commentators, but actually it's pretty bereft. In fact, in places it's all a bit silly really.
Because of the – in my experience – unique circumstances of the politics of Britain today, the PM can call an election, get a landslide, and then claim a mandate for Brexit At Any Cost.
These unique circumstances demand a unique response.
There has to be a way of ensuring (MBE ponders: like wot? Go on, tell us tell us tell us) that voters can put candidates for Parliament under sustained pressure to say whether they would vote against a deal which does not deliver the same benefits as we enjoy with the Single Market or against no deal if that transpires to be as damaging as many fear; and that they are prepared to hold the Government properly to account in the interests of the country.
This should cross Party lines.
The political situation the country faces is unprecedented and dangerous. We risk a Parliament which is lop-sided in its make-up; which has a big Tory majority - in part delivered not because of the intrinsic merits of Brexit or the Tories themselves but because of the state of Labour; where they will claim a mandate to take us wherever they will; when we desperately need representatives who will at least keep an open mind.
This requires the electorate in every constituency to know where the candidates stand; and the mobilisation of the thousands in each constituency to make it clear that for them this issue counts when it comes to their vote.
To be clear: I am not urging tactical voting or some anti Tory alliance; I am urging that, as part of this election campaign, we create the capacity for the people to know exactly what the choices are; and elect as many MPs as possible with an open mind on this issue who are prepared to vote according to the quality of the deal and the interests of the British people.
I have never known a political situation as perplexing as this (MBE wonders: ah, so don't you know either?); or as galvanising. But I am absolutely sure that there will be millions of British people who reflect on what this election means with acute anxiety; and wonder what can be done.
It's clear he's got some kind of vision here for an all-party anti-(hard)-Brexit alliance... yet notably there is absolutely zero suggestion for any mechanism by which it could be achieved. Just "perplexity". He was apparently on extensive behind-scenes maoeuvres a few months ago, I wonder if he had a masterplan in the works that this election has sprung too early for. Or is this strange little essay a teaser, perhaps we'll get some more details of The Plan later?0 -
He is the Ron Paul de nos jours.Cyan said:Why is François Asselineau at such a high price, 120-150 at Betfair? He's getting around 1% in the polls. Hamon is on 8%, Dupont-Aignan on 4%, Poutou on 2%, but no-one is betting on any of them even at 1000.
Asselineau is the only candidate who has promised to pull France out of the EU. Is he receiving some interest from those who want to insure themselves against Le Pen having to withdraw, or what?0 -
JackW said:
I think a decent party rule of thumb for the election will be :
1. Labour will poll worse than their worst opinion poll rating.
2. LibDem substantial higher seat predictions will fail to occur.
3. UKIP vote share likely to halve.
4. SNP retain at least 50 seats.
5. Mrs May and TSE to invest in special edition "landslide" footwear.JackW said:
But will you be getting your ARSE out?0 -
In relation to 1 and 5, I would wait to see what understanding if any might be reached between the Greens and LibDems. Lucas did the LDs a huge favour in Richmond and surely is on some sort of promise; I wouldn't be surprised to see no LD opponent down in Brighton, for example. Also on 1. the previous MP is standing in the mayoral election so might make a double run problematic.Sean_F said:
I'll stick my neck out:-Tissue_Price said:A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
1. Lab hold
2. Con gain
3. Lib Dem gain
4. Con gain
5. Lab hold.
In the current climate I wouldn't however back Labour in any of them; out of the five their best chance is number four. In Scotland there might be continued anti-SNP tactical voting although for Labour to benefit would need a lot of tartan clothes pegs.0 -
Tory stepping down, job for life vacancy?nunu said:
London and commuter belt MP's are very luckyisam said:Hornchurch & Upminster up for grabs
https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/8546217805222789130 -
Good article by Alastair. The Tories suffered from an overly optimistic strategy in both 1997 (when Lab gained all the defence seats and went way beyond into undefended territory), and in 2001, when the party missed not only all the seats the money was thrown at but also those that it expected to take back without CCO support.0
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I think that working class constituencies where the Labour vote has declined markedly in recent elections, and where both the Conservatives and UKIP have substantial votes, will be very vulnerable.
I'm going to predict that Labour will lose such seats as Heywood & Middleton, Grimsby, Hartlepool, Stoke Central and South, Don Valley to the Conservatives.
Conversely, I think Labour will find it a good deal easier to hold places like Leeds NE, Wirral South, Crosby, Exeter, which the Tories would have expected to win easily on these poll numbers.0 -
What is the intelligent SNPers' view of why there may be a Tory landslide in England? (Could it be indoctrination into the irrationality of nationalism in hard times? Pot and kettle? But I will let them answer.)0
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Vox pops like twiiter are a poor arbiter of the state of play.Nigelb said:
That all sounds about right to me (& I doubt campaigning is going to matter very much).JackW said:I think a decent party rule of thumb for the election will be :
1. Labour will poll worse than their worst opinion poll rating.
2. LibDem substantial higher seat predictions will fail to occur.
3. UKIP vote share likely to halve.
4. SNP retain at least 50 seats.
5. Mrs May and TSE to invest in special edition "landslide" footwear.
One thing that struck me about some of the vox pops since May's announcement was the number of non-Tory voters prepared to contemplate voting for May's party, while at the same time saying they still wouldn't contemplate voting for the Lib Dems because of their support for the coalition...
Can't say I understand the logic, but it's a real thing.
The campaign will throw up many a wobble and set PB off on wild theories. That said on balance it'll help the LibDems and reinforce Jezza as a total disaster zone. The Tories will cruise to the win at a canter.
However despite this my opinion of the PM has been severely dented. I had thought better of her. I was clearly wrong.
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It's a hard one to judge. Given the dramatic differences in Edinburgh Holyrood constituencies compared to Westminster it's hard to say what might happen.Tissue_Price said:
I think the Tories might win it from 3rd.Sean_F said:
My error. I misread it as Edinburgh West. SNP hold then.Alistair said:
That would be, ummm, spectacular vote share rise for the LDsSean_F said:
I'll stick my neck out:-Tissue_Price said:A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
1. Lab hold
2. Con gain
3. Lib Dem gain
4. Con gain
5. Lab hold.0 -
Mr. Ears, if the vote goes May's way today, Blair only has seven weeks, from a standing start, to reveal The Plan and persuade the electorate (and other politicians) it's a good idea.0
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PMQs, here we go...0
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Somewhat off topic but does an early election change the date of the next Scottish Parliament election? The Fixed Term Parliament Act prolonged the length of the Scottish Parliament so that Scottish Parliament elections wouldn't clash with Westminster Parliament elections.
If there is an election approved today then a Scottish Parliament election in 2020 (four years after the last one as pre-FTPA rules dictated) will no longer clash with the next Westminster election.
So will the next Scottish Parliament election now be in 2020 or will it stay due 2021?0 -
Mr. W, partook in a Twitter poll which had thousands of responses today. It was on which party you'd back. Labour were on 51%.0
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It's as big a 100-1 + lay as you'll ever see (I think)Tissue_Price said:
He is the Ron Paul de nos jours.Cyan said:Why is François Asselineau at such a high price, 120-150 at Betfair? He's getting around 1% in the polls. Hamon is on 8%, Dupont-Aignan on 4%, Poutou on 2%, but no-one is betting on any of them even at 1000.
Asselineau is the only candidate who has promised to pull France out of the EU. Is he receiving some interest from those who want to insure themselves against Le Pen having to withdraw, or what?0 -
LD gain? Brave!Sean_F said:
I'll stick my neck out:-Tissue_Price said:A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
1. Lab hold
2. Con gain
3. Lib Dem gain
4. Con gain
5. Lab hold.
Edit: ha, I see you have already been chastised.0 -
Blair, of all people on this earth, saying that is the funniest thing I've heard all week.MyBurningEars said:... "The political situation the country faces is unprecedented and dangerous. We risk a Parliament which is lop-sided in its make-up;..."
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You mean he's going to win after a brokered convention?Tissue_Price said:
He is the Ron Paul de nos jours.Cyan said:Why is François Asselineau at such a high price, 120-150 at Betfair? He's getting around 1% in the polls. Hamon is on 8%, Dupont-Aignan on 4%, Poutou on 2%, but no-one is betting on any of them even at 1000.
Asselineau is the only candidate who has promised to pull France out of the EU. Is he receiving some interest from those who want to insure themselves against Le Pen having to withdraw, or what?0 -
Chris_A
My ARSE has retired to sunnier climes ..
No tan line there ....
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Green, SNP, SNP, Lab, wild (Con would be my odds against favourite).Tissue_Price said:A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)0 -
Joanna Cherry's quite high profile and for mostly the right reasons; the SCons would have to have a decent candidate (and their council intake doesn't augur well for that).Tissue_Price said:
I think the Tories might win it from 3rd.Sean_F said:
My error. I misread it as Edinburgh West. SNP hold then.Alistair said:
That would be, ummm, spectacular vote share rise for the LDsSean_F said:
I'll stick my neck out:-Tissue_Price said:A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
1. Lab hold
2. Con gain
3. Lib Dem gain
4. Con gain
5. Lab hold.0 -
Very longshot seat for the Tories on that thinking would be Doncaster North. Take away Ed's leadership bonus and a coalescing of the Tory + UKIP vote shares could get interesting.Sean_F said:
I think that working class constituencies where the Labour vote has declined markedly in recent elections, and where both the Conservatives and UKIP have substantial votes, will be very vulnerable.
I'm going to predict that Labour will lose such seats as Heywood & Middleton, Grimsby, Hartlepool, Stoke Central and South, Don Valley to the Conservatives.
Conversely, I think Labour will find it a good deal easier to hold places like Leeds NE, Wirral South, Crosby, Exeter, which the Tories would have expected to win easily on these poll numbers.0 -
Corbyn going on about May's promise not to hold an election. And the tv debates.0
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Voting system in the Scottish council elections should tell us if there will be tactical Unionist voting at the general election.Theuniondivvie said:
Joanna Cherry's quite high profile and for the mostly the right reasons; the SCons would have to have a decent candidate (and their council intake doesn't augur well for that).Tissue_Price said:
I think the Tories might win it from 3rd.Sean_F said:
My error. I misread it as Edinburgh West. SNP hold then.Alistair said:
That would be, ummm, spectacular vote share rise for the LDsSean_F said:
I'll stick my neck out:-Tissue_Price said:A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
1. Lab hold
2. Con gain
3. Lib Dem gain
4. Con gain
5. Lab hold.0 -
My fear is that the Lib Dems will have the same experience as UKIP in 2015, lots of votes and motivated voters all over the country, not a lot of seats to show for it, and lots of moaning about the electoral system as a result (justified imo)
It'll be a feel-good campaign for the yellows, but I hope the targetting is pessimistic and I would not rule out losses in the existing seats. One real issue is that the targets are clustered (SW, South West London, South Manchester) and this will force some tricky choices unless the party really feel they can fight on many fronts.0 -
'If she is so proud of her record, why will she not debate it?'0
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Speaking to a few Tories this morning, there's some general annoyance at TMay's announcement due to the additional work and cost, when it could have been rolled in with the May elections they were preparing for, but obviously up for the contest - honestly, I don't know if people are wary of too much of a good thing, or genuinely worried about a functioning opposition, but they seem more workmanlike in taking down corbyn than eager, like it's sad they even have to be the ones to do it, that it should not have come to this with Labour.
You don't want to be pitied by your main opponents.0 -
Corbyn having a good PMQs here, exposing May as frit0
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Will that level of support remain if the manifesto contains no commitment to the triple lock continuing?FrancisUrquhart said:One additional thing worth noting is the Kim Jong Un level of support for the Tories from the oldies. Yes they are the ones that are much more likely to vote, but what about how they are distributed around the country, etc etc etc.
Again I don't think the old style models ever considered support for basically a one party state among a key voting demographic.0 -
Bold, to say the least.Richard_Nabavi said:
Blair, of all people on this earth, saying that is the funniest thing I've heard all week.MyBurningEars said:... "The political situation the country faces is unprecedented and dangerous. We risk a Parliament which is lop-sided in its make-up;..."
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Corbyn gets a partial hit but doesn't have the sense to sit down and shut up0
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Incidentally "would vote against a deal which does not deliver the same benefits as we enjoy with the Single Market" is really the arch-remainer's battle-cry... it seems to be code for "staying in" (possibly in all but name).
Brexit is an exchange of the pros and cons of one position in the world, for the pros and cons of another. People have strikingly different opinions about how those pros and cons weigh up - or even about what exactly they are - but Brexit wasn't sold as keeping the same pros as we already had.
To take just one example, one of the advantages of single market membership is that Britain's low-skill employers had free access to whatever low-wage East European labour they could attract to these shores. Depending on how one sees it, this is also a disadvantage. If one wants to keep the same balance sheet of advantages (and their accompany disadvantages) this is one of those things that has to stay as is. It's pretty clear how the electorate feel about this one.
There are other advantages of the Single Market that the British public are less wont to lose, but may be unable to retain. But overall, I can't see any prospect for success of a strategy based around "the only acceptable deal is one that keeps the current set of pros and cons".
It's utterly unrealistic. What's the more constructive, realistic vision? And what's the long game, bearing in mind these referenda are meant to be once in a generation affairs? Where do Blair or Farron or Osborne see the place of the UK with respect to the EU or single market in 30 years time? We didn't even get much sight of that when they were campaigning for Britain to remain in the EU, when at least we knew what the status quo looks like. If they don't like the path being taken now, will some visions* of their preferred course descend from on high?
* just like the multiple visions of Brexit - soft, hard, left-wing, freewheeling red-claw-capitalism neoliberal - there is surely more than one arguable vision of Anti-Brexit0 -
There was definitely some tactical Unionist voting in 2015 (See Jo Swinson for example) and there was certainly tactical voting at 2016 Holyrood.TheScreamingEagles said:
Voting system in the Scottish council elections should tell us if there will be tactical Unionist voting at the general election.Theuniondivvie said:
Joanna Cherry's quite high profile and for the mostly the right reasons; the SCons would have to have a decent candidate (and their council intake doesn't augur well for that).Tissue_Price said:
I think the Tories might win it from 3rd.Sean_F said:
My error. I misread it as Edinburgh West. SNP hold then.Alistair said:
That would be, ummm, spectacular vote share rise for the LDsSean_F said:
I'll stick my neck out:-Tissue_Price said:A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
1. Lab hold
2. Con gain
3. Lib Dem gain
4. Con gain
5. Lab hold.
Scottish council by-elections have shown Unionist tactical voting, enough to get Cons in on the 7th round)
There will be tactical voting on an unprecedented scale.0 -
Warren Gatland is a twat and lower than Mark Reckless to me.0
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Mr. Eagles, could you explain your Gatland comment?0
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And there is a risk that good local election results might tempt the LibDems to target quite wide for the General.tpfkar said:My fear is that the Lib Dems will have the same experience as UKIP in 2015, lots of votes and motivated voters all over the country, not a lot of seats to show for it, and lots of moaning about the electoral system as a result (justified imo)
It'll be a feel-good campaign for the yellows, but I hope the targetting is pessimistic and I would not rule out losses in the existing seats. One real issue is that the targets are clustered (SW, South West London, South Manchester) and this will force some tricky choices unless the party really feel they can fight on many fronts.0 -
Jezza going on Labour's weakest issue....the economy.0
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He's announced his Lions squad, and he's left out Dylan Hartley and several other English players, you know the team that won the six nations two years in a row and won 15 in a row.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, could you explain your Gatland comment?
You can tell Gatland coaches the Ramshaggers.0 -
I know, Imagine picking Dan Cole.TheScreamingEagles said:Warren Gatland is a twat and lower than Mark Reckless to me.
Seriously though - Iain Henderson is a joke pick.0 -
Not happy with the Lion’s selections..?TheScreamingEagles said:Warren Gatland is a twat and lower than Mark Reckless to me.
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Labour will run a genuinely bipolar campaign. On one hand Corbyn and his acolytes will be expecting big things. On the other hand regional offices run by sane people know we are fucked and will be defending seats at risk with any resources they have.
For example in 2015 Stockton South was a target seat and we had activists sent in (at the own cost btw!!!) from elsewhere. In 2017 we will be written off and will have what activists we have stripped away to defend MSEC Hartlepool Darlington etc.0 -
Doncaster North is one of the seats I will be closely watching. Go there, and it feels like it is moving away from Labour. Bit like Scunthorpe up the road - has no reason to vote Labour now.Lennon said:
Very longshot seat for the Tories on that thinking would be Doncaster North. Take away Ed's leadership bonus and a coalescing of the Tory + UKIP vote shares could get interesting.Sean_F said:
I think that working class constituencies where the Labour vote has declined markedly in recent elections, and where both the Conservatives and UKIP have substantial votes, will be very vulnerable.
I'm going to predict that Labour will lose such seats as Heywood & Middleton, Grimsby, Hartlepool, Stoke Central and South, Don Valley to the Conservatives.
Conversely, I think Labour will find it a good deal easier to hold places like Leeds NE, Wirral South, Crosby, Exeter, which the Tories would have expected to win easily on these poll numbers.0 -
Dylan Hartley is a walking red card on the Lions tour. That's one pick I can get behind.TheScreamingEagles said:
He's announced his Lions squad, and he's left out Dylan Hartley and several other English players, you know the team that won the six nations two years in a row and won 15 in a row.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, could you explain your Gatland comment?
You can tell Gatland coaches the Ramshaggers.0 -
Is this the penultimate PMQs before the GE0
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Jezza...NHS per pupil funding down....shakes head.0
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John Rentoul✔@JohnRentoulBig_G_NorthWales said:Is this the penultimate PMQs before the GE
In the Chamber for what could be Theresa May's penultimate PMQs0 -
I would have been happy if he didn't pick any English starting 15....save them from injury.TheScreamingEagles said:
He's announced his Lions squad, and he's left out Dylan Hartley and several other English players, you know the team that won the six nations two years in a row and won 15 in a row.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, could you explain your Gatland comment?
You can tell Gatland coaches the Ramshaggers.0 -
But with WM voting you have to be absolutely sure which of your Unionist candidates isn't the no hoper - only one bite of the cherry, if you'll excuse the pun.TheScreamingEagles said:
Voting system in the Scottish council elections should tell us if there will be tactical Unionist voting at the general election.Theuniondivvie said:
Joanna Cherry's quite high profile and for the mostly the right reasons; the SCons would have to have a decent candidate (and their council intake doesn't augur well for that).Tissue_Price said:
I think the Tories might win it from 3rd.Sean_F said:
My error. I misread it as Edinburgh West. SNP hold then.Alistair said:
That would be, ummm, spectacular vote share rise for the LDsSean_F said:
I'll stick my neck out:-Tissue_Price said:A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
1. Lab hold
2. Con gain
3. Lib Dem gain
4. Con gain
5. Lab hold.
I greatly look forward to the return of the tactical voting wheels.0 -
Saw a rumour purdah starts Friday, which would make it the last I thinkBig_G_NorthWales said:Is this the penultimate PMQs before the GE
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Interesting.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Oxford East, hmmmmmmmmAlastairMeeks said:0 -
May's constant repetition that vote for her is vote for strong position in Brexit negotiations. That has to have been road tested by Crosby. She says it at every opportunity for it to have been just thought up.0
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honestly i thought he had gone years ago.Pulpstar said:
Oxford East, hmmmmmmmmAlastairMeeks said:0 -
Andrew Smith’s announcement to stand down makes it 3 Labour & 1 Lib Dem in first 24 hrs.0
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I'd have thought that the Lib Dems would fancy a crack at that now. They got very close indeed in 2005 and weren't that far adrift in 2010. And it's the type of seat where arch-Remainers would no doubt be found in abundance.Pulpstar said:
Oxford East, hmmmmmmmmAlastairMeeks said:0 -
Mr. Eagles, ah.
England only really hit top gear once in the Six Nations, though. Bit of a rest is fine.0 -
Right if the Lib Dems can get 30-35 seats I'll be very pleased !0
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On the basis of students, who they are pretty far from winning back. The Greens will fancy improving their share too.AlastairMeeks said:
I'd have thought that the Lib Dems would fancy a crack at that now. They got very close indeed in 2005 and weren't that far adrift in 2010. And it's the type of seat where arch-Remainers would no doubt be found in abundance.Pulpstar said:
Oxford East, hmmmmmmmmAlastairMeeks said:0 -
I thought the piece was quite cryptic. Perhaps it was just rushed, or even emotional at a whole great edifice he'd built up being torn right down again - I wonder whether he ever regrets not being the PM who took us into the Euro.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Ears, if the vote goes May's way today, Blair only has seven weeks, from a standing start, to reveal The Plan and persuade the electorate (and other politicians) it's a good idea.
Linky again for those who missed it:
http://institute.global/news/damage-will-be-huge-if-we-end-brexit-any-cost
Incidentally, how big a prat do you have to be to call what is basically your personal website "www.institute.global"?0 -
Just as well I'm best man at a wedding during the 3rd testAlistair said:
I know, Imagine picking Dan Cole.TheScreamingEagles said:Warren Gatland is a twat and lower than Mark Reckless to me.
Seriously though - Iain Henderson is a joke pick.0 -
Mr. Ears, Blair's never suffered from a small ego.
Mr. Pulpstar, 30-39 seats would be nice.0 -
That it exactly what it is, de facto membership of the EU.MyBurningEars said:Incidentally "would vote against a deal which does not deliver the same benefits as we enjoy with the Single Market" is really the arch-remainer's battle-cry... it seems to be code for "staying in" (possibly in all but name).
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