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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    malcolmg said:

    Cyan said:

    Theresa May says in her statement that she's calling a general election because of a) the SNP and b) the House of Lords. Apparently the "game-playing" will jeopardise the form that Brexit takes if she doesn't get a bigger Tory majority in the Commons.

    How awake does a person have to be to realise that her stated reason is a complete load of crap? Never mind that she lied in the past. She is lying now.

    A general election is unlikely to change the number of SNP MPs by much, and even if it did, so what? And it won't change the composition of either the Scottish Parliament or the House of Lords one iota. And she's got a majority at the moment. Only Tory MPs can get rid of that majority - by voting against her, by crossing the floor of the House, or by getting replaced in by-elections. None of those possibilities have anything whatsoever do with the SNP or the House of Lords.

    The Kremlin and the White House will love this general election. Europe is being destabilised.

    "Division in Westminster will risk our ability to make a success of Brexit". That's funny. I thought that division in Westminster was exactly how parliamentary democracy was meant to work.

    Wrong on both counts.

    If the SNP lose seats and vote share at the GE then it very much undermines their claims that the country is now more in favour of Independence than it was before the Brexit vote.

    And depending on what goes into the manifesto in terms of Brexit promises, the Lords will be in a very different position when it comes to blocking future legislation.
    Hard to see the SNP losing vote share and doubtful even on seats, be few if any. Choice is vote hated nasty right wing Tory rule forever or vote SNP for a fairer Scotland. Easy choice.
    Not sure either way. As you know I want Scottish independence and Brexit but it is fair to point out that there was 38% of the Scottish electorate who voted in favour of Brexit and I am not sure they will be wanting to support the SNP. I can't call this at all but at least on paper it is possible that this could hurt the SNP not help it.
    Richard, hard to know but it is difficult to see any reason to vote aginst SNP unless you are a Tory or a die hard unionist who can hold their nose and put Tories in charge of Scotland for the forseeable future. My best guess is they may lose a few seats but not anything substantial.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,105
    It will be interesting to see whether May drops the 'precious Union' rhetoric during the campaign.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,348
    fitalass said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Can't help but be a bit disappointed about this. A major part of TM's USP was that she was looking to deal with problems in the national interest. We have 23 months now to agree a deal with the EU and we are effectively not going to have a government for 3 of them? How is that in the national interest?

    I could understand the temptation of the polls and the desire for her own mandate but this seems a mistake to me and my guess is that it won't be quite the spectacular victory it looks like it should be right now.

    Hard to argue that Indyref2 is impossible during Brexit but a GE is.
    It is inevitable that the SNP will make Indyref2 a part of their manifesto. When they win 50 seats it is going to be impossible to resist. It probably was anyway in the longer run but May risks losing control of the timing here.
    You think that the SNP will retain 50 seats, bearing in mind that the last GE result was just after a referendum where the electorate thought the Indy issue had been decided, and Nicola Sturgeon was enjoying her honeymoon as FM? She has just spent a year trying to use EU Remain voters, many of whom might well have also been No to Indy voters to try and ram through another Indy Ref just three years after the last one.

    A lot of people are angry that Sturgeon is using their Remain vote to try to claim a mandate for another Indy Ref. SNP and Sturgeon have both been declining in the polls, the SNP at a much slower rate than their Leader it must be said. But Sturgeon is being hoist by her own pertard after her own stunt whereby she announced plans for that 2nd Indy Ref the day before May triggered Article 50. She thought she had two years of playing grudge and grievance politics. May has called her bluff, and Scots voters may just been a lot more canny when it comes to tactically voting in this GE.
    As I said to Malcolm I think 52-53 for the SNP actually. 2 Lib Dems (gain being Fife NE) zero Labour and 4-5 Tories.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898
    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:

    SNP won't be blocking a GE - BBC. It's happening.


    How could any opposition party block a GE and then be a credible opposition afterwards?

    "We're in the midst of the trickiest negotiations this country has faced since the War. Now is not the time for distractions. Unlike Mrs May, the Labour Party takes very seriously its responsibility for getting the best deal for the country and will hold the government's feet to the fire to ensure they are." etc etc

    Basically, throw Theresa May's words back at her. It doesn't have to be universally believed. It just has to sound plausible.
    Exactly. Force her to go the no confidence route and she has less cover for how partisan this move really is, with her own words from before backing up now is not the time.
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    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    Jonathan said:

    Are the rumours true that the Tories were looking at a clutch of by elections?

    Probably, tovarishch.
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,548

    IanB2 said:

    Mr Farron's GE launch email and fundraiser lands in my inbox at 13:01

    1253 for me!
    He only liked me enough to get in touch at 12:56!
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    I do hope there are TV debates. 'Please, Mr Corbyn, tell us about your support for Hamas, Hezbollah, the IRA, sharing platforms with Holocaust deniers, etc, etc, etc......'

    Labour's evisceration and total humiliation on prime time TV. Bloody marvellous!!

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,898

    SeanT said:

    SNP won't be blocking a GE - BBC. It's happening.


    How could any opposition party block a GE and then be a credible opposition afterwards?

    Also, I think SNP probably welcome this opportunity. They might even think they can get a clean sweep in Scotland...at the very least reiterate their support and for IndyRef2.
    The Nats are nervous. They sense the lean years ahead for their cause.
    They are fantastic actors if they truly are nervous. Unless it's the nervousness of being on the cusp of ultimate victory.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,131
    edited April 2017
    dr_spyn said:

    Cons gain Bootle.

    Do we know where the UKIP leader will be standing? (Assuming it is still Paul Nuttall by election day...and will Farage stand again?)
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited April 2017
    AndyJS said:

    Any shouts for most surprising Tory gain from Labour then?

    Mansfield? Wrexham?

    Probably somewhere in the Midlands like Coventry NW or Leicester West.
    Leicester West is possible, but Liz Kendall works the constituency well. I think she is most at risk of the 3 Leics MPs.

    Blues winning over the reds in Leicester will be restricted to the Champions League Quarter Final tonight.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,969
    Jonathan said:

    Are the rumours true that the Tories were looking at a clutch of by elections?

    That always struck me as the most likely reason there would be a sudden GE. I still think it is the underlying reason for this change of heart.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,951

    Pulpstar said:

    MattW said:

    Any shouts for most surprising Tory gain from Labour then?

    Mansfield? Wrexham?

    Bishop Auckland
    I doubt Mansfield.

    Bolsover?
    Bolsover is safer than Mansfield. Fully expecting Con gain.
    Am I right in thinking if Dennis Skinner wins again, he will be 90 by the time of the next GE?
    Skinner might just be able to cling on. I think it'll be close, mind.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,131
    There must be a hell of a lot of candidates looking to get their residence sorted out today!
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    DavidL said:

    fitalass said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Can't help but be a bit disappointed about this. A major part of TM's USP was that she was looking to deal with problems in the national interest. We have 23 months now to agree a deal with the EU and we are effectively not going to have a government for 3 of them? How is that in the national interest?

    I could understand the temptation of the polls and the desire for her own mandate but this seems a mistake to me and my guess is that it won't be quite the spectacular victory it looks like it should be right now.

    Hard to argue that Indyref2 is impossible during Brexit but a GE is.
    It is inevitable that the SNP will make Indyref2 a part of their manifesto. When they win 50 seats it is going to be impossible to resist. It probably was anyway in the longer run but May risks losing control of the timing here.
    You think that the SNP will retain 50 seats, bearing in mind that the last GE result was just after a referendum where the electorate thought the Indy issue had been decided, and Nicola Sturgeon was enjoying her honeymoon as FM? She has just spent a year trying to use EU Remain voters, many of whom might well have also been No to Indy voters to try and ram through another Indy Ref just three years after the last one.

    A lot of people are angry that Sturgeon is using their Remain vote to try to claim a mandate for another Indy Ref. SNP and Sturgeon have both been declining in the polls, the SNP at a much slower rate than their Leader it must be said. But Sturgeon is being hoist by her own pertard after her own stunt whereby she announced plans for that 2nd Indy Ref the day before May triggered Article 50. She thought she had two years of playing grudge and grievance politics. May has called her bluff, and Scots voters may just been a lot more canny when it comes to tactically voting in this GE.
    As I said to Malcolm I think 52-53 for the SNP actually. 2 Lib Dems (gain being Fife NE) zero Labour and 4-5 Tories.
    Expect the borders to go true blue Conservative - moving the "McMaginot Line" up another 50 miles.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:

    SNP won't be blocking a GE - BBC. It's happening.


    How could any opposition party block a GE and then be a credible opposition afterwards?

    "We're in the midst of the trickiest negotiations this country has faced since the War. Now is not the time for distractions. Unlike Mrs May, the Labour Party takes very seriously its responsibility for getting the best deal for the country and will hold the government's feet to the fire to ensure they are." etc etc

    Basically, throw Theresa May's words back at her. It doesn't have to be universally believed. It just has to sound plausible.
    Exactly. Force her to go the no confidence route and she has less cover for how partisan this move really is, with her own words from before backing up now is not the time.
    Exactly. Even if an election was still eventually triggered via the no-confidence route, it would still string out the process and make May look cynical and game-playing.

    But no-one ever congratulated Team Corbyn for their sense of political strategy.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited April 2017
    No sign of Walter Mitty doing the media....is Tuesday the day he lectures neuro-science at Liverpool Uni? Or is it when he coaches Everton U23's?
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062

    calum said:

    calum said:

    Deafbloke said:

    calum said:

    FF43 said:

    Alistair said:

    So, wait, what if the SNP stand on a "Vote SNP for IndyRef2" platform and get 40+ MPs?

    Vote SNP for Indyref2 and against a hard Brexit. They will clean up Scottish seats on a FPTP basis and Theresa May will have quite a lot of trouble with it. The SNP can reasonably claim a mandate from the Scottish electorate for their Indyref stance, and do so much more easily than they could with a Holyrood election.
    As the Tories look likely to sweep to a 100+ seat majority - Scotland's voters minds will be focused by this !! - I think today's moves will only strengthen the case for an IndyRef2 sooner rather than later.
    So why aren't the SNP calling for one for June 8th? What is Sturgeon afraid of? Or are they not serious about independence?
    They are !!

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/854285958535098369
    No mention of independence or another referendum in Sturgeon's tweet. Tired SLAB rhetoric from the SNP leader.
    Sturgeon on Sky
    Sturgeon all at sea on Sky.
    LOL, you are a paragon of fair opinions Monica. You and Carlotta must be related , do you share cauldrons.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Jason said:

    I do hope there are TV debates. 'Please, Mr Corbyn, tell us about your support for Hamas, Hezbollah, the IRA, sharing platforms with Holocaust deniers, etc, etc, etc......'

    Labour's evisceration and total humiliation on prime time TV. Bloody marvellous!!

    With Sir Lynton in charge of the campaign, I am sure none of this will ever get a mention.
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    NEW THREAD

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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,656

    AndyJS said:

    Any shouts for most surprising Tory gain from Labour then?

    Mansfield? Wrexham?

    Probably somewhere in the Midlands like Coventry NW or Leicester West.
    Leicester West is possible, but Liz Kendall works the constituency well. I think she is most at risk of the 3 Leics MPs.

    Blues winning over the reds in Leicester will be restricted to the Champions League Quarter Final tonight.
    I'm sure that Momentum will be campaigning hard in Liz's seat to ensure a Labour win.
  • Options
    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    kle4 said:

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:

    SNP won't be blocking a GE - BBC. It's happening.


    How could any opposition party block a GE and then be a credible opposition afterwards?

    "We're in the midst of the trickiest negotiations this country has faced since the War. Now is not the time for distractions. Unlike Mrs May, the Labour Party takes very seriously its responsibility for getting the best deal for the country and will hold the government's feet to the fire to ensure they are." etc etc

    Basically, throw Theresa May's words back at her. It doesn't have to be universally believed. It just has to sound plausible.
    Exactly. Force her to go the no confidence route and she has less cover for how partisan this move really is, with her own words from before backing up now is not the time.
    Yes, or just make the point that this is in effect a no confidence route: the prime minister and cabinet have no confidence in their ability to lead the country.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2017
    DavidL said:

    fitalass said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Can't help but be a bit disappointed about this. A major part of TM's USP was that she was looking to deal with problems in the national interest. We have 23 months now to agree a deal with the EU and we are effectively not going to have a government for 3 of them? How is that in the national interest?

    I could understand the temptation of the polls and the desire for her own mandate but this seems a mistake to me and my guess is that it won't be quite the spectacular victory it looks like it should be right now.

    Hard to argue that Indyref2 is impossible during Brexit but a GE is.
    It is inevitable that the SNP will make Indyref2 a part of their manifesto. When they win 50 seats it is going to be impossible to resist. It probably was anyway in the longer run but May risks losing control of the timing here.
    You think that the SNP will retain 50 seats, bearing in mind that the last GE result was just after a referendum where the electorate thought the Indy issue had been decided, and Nicola Sturgeon was enjoying her honeymoon as FM? She has just spent a year trying to use EU Remain voters, many of whom might well have also been No to Indy voters to try and ram through another Indy Ref just three years after the last one.

    A lot of people are angry that Sturgeon is using their Remain vote to try to claim a mandate for another Indy Ref. SNP and Sturgeon have both been declining in the polls, the SNP at a much slower rate than their Leader it must be said. But Sturgeon is being hoist by her own pertard after her own stunt whereby she announced plans for that 2nd Indy Ref the day before May triggered Article 50. She thought she had two years of playing grudge and grievance politics. May has called her bluff, and Scots voters may just been a lot more canny when it comes to tactically voting in this GE.
    As I said to Malcolm I think 52-53 for the SNP actually. 2 Lib Dems (gain being Fife NE) zero Labour and 4-5 Tories.
    Who wins Edinburgh South? Maybe Ruth will stand there.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,951
    AndyJS said:

    DavidL said:

    fitalass said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Can't help but be a bit disappointed about this. A major part of TM's USP was that she was looking to deal with problems in the national interest. We have 23 months now to agree a deal with the EU and we are effectively not going to have a government for 3 of them? How is that in the national interest?

    I could understand the temptation of the polls and the desire for her own mandate but this seems a mistake to me and my guess is that it won't be quite the spectacular victory it looks like it should be right now.

    Hard to argue that Indyref2 is impossible during Brexit but a GE is.
    It is inevitable that the SNP will make Indyref2 a part of their manifesto. When they win 50 seats it is going to be impossible to resist. It probably was anyway in the longer run but May risks losing control of the timing here.
    You think that the SNP will retain 50 seats, bearing in mind that the last GE result was just after a referendum where the electorate thought the Indy issue had been decided, and Nicola Sturgeon was enjoying her honeymoon as FM? She has just spent a year trying to use EU Remain voters, many of whom might well have also been No to Indy voters to try and ram through another Indy Ref just three years after the last one.

    A lot of people are angry that Sturgeon is using their Remain vote to try to claim a mandate for another Indy Ref. SNP and Sturgeon have both been declining in the polls, the SNP at a much slower rate than their Leader it must be said. But Sturgeon is being hoist by her own pertard after her own stunt whereby she announced plans for that 2nd Indy Ref the day before May triggered Article 50. She thought she had two years of playing grudge and grievance politics. May has called her bluff, and Scots voters may just been a lot more canny when it comes to tactically voting in this GE.
    As I said to Malcolm I think 52-53 for the SNP actually. 2 Lib Dems (gain being Fife NE) zero Labour and 4-5 Tories.
    Who wins Edinburgh South? Maybe Ruth will stand there.
    Ruth Davidson ?
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,760
    fitalass said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Can't help but be a bit disappointed about this. A major part of TM's USP was that she was looking to deal with problems in the national interest. We have 23 months now to agree a deal with the EU and we are effectively not going to have a government for 3 of them? How is that in the national interest?

    I could understand the temptation of the polls and the desire for her own mandate but this seems a mistake to me and my guess is that it won't be quite the spectacular victory it looks like it should be right now.

    Hard to argue that Indyref2 is impossible during Brexit but a GE is.
    It is inevitable that the SNP will make Indyref2 a part of their manifesto. When they win 50 seats it is going to be impossible to resist. It probably was anyway in the longer run but May risks losing control of the timing here.
    You think that the SNP will retain 50 seats, bearing in mind that the last GE result was just after a referendum where the electorate thought the Indy issue had been decided, and Nicola Sturgeon was enjoying her honeymoon as FM? She has just spent a year trying to use EU Remain voters, many of whom might well have also been No to Indy voters to try and ram through another Indy Ref just three years after the last one.

    A lot of people are angry that Sturgeon is using their Remain vote to try to claim a mandate for another Indy Ref. SNP and Sturgeon have both been declining in the polls, the SNP at a much slower rate than their Leader it must be said. But Sturgeon is being hoist by her own pertard after her own stunt whereby she announced plans for that 2nd Indy Ref the day before May triggered Article 50. She thought she had two years of playing grudge and grievance politics. May has called her bluff, and Scots voters may just been a lot more canny when it comes to tactically voting in this GE.
    With this move, Sturgeon is free. She gets an opportunity to claim a mandate for Indyref2 on the easiest possible grounds for her: a first past the post election for a parliament that the SNP use entirely for making constitutional points. She will clean up. You're right that less than half of the Scottish population support a second referendum, but the overwhelming mandate will be there for her in terms of seats. We can argue about FPTP versus proportional representation, but it's a losing argument.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    MattW said:

    Any shouts for most surprising Tory gain from Labour then?

    Mansfield? Wrexham?

    Bishop Auckland
    I doubt Mansfield.

    Bolsover?
    Mansfield very nearly went Tory in 1987. Labour's majority there was about 50.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    kle4 said:

    malcolmg said:

    kle4 said:

    Popping to the shops to buy eggs is a vote on Scottish independence, everything is.
    Massie is an out and out unionist , unusally for them he is very balanced in his opinions.
    Oh, I don't actually disagree with the point that this is a vote on Scottish independence in many ways, just having a bit of fun.
    I like to read Massie's opinions , he is usually well balanced which is unusual.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,220
    calum said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    SNP won't be blocking a GE - BBC. It's happening.

    Why would they? They'll comfortably win most UK seats, and by going for it there's no justification for not holding an Indy ref before 2021. A great day for them.
    SNP poster - Corbyn on TM's plate !
    Since this will be the Brexit GE & there isn't the slightest evidence that Corbyn or Labour will be able to form a distinct Brexit message, mini Jezza peeking from Tessy's cleavage maybe?

    Don't have nightmares folks.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    new thread

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    DavidL said:

    fitalass said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Can't help but be a bit disappointed about this. A major part of TM's USP was that she was looking to deal with problems in the national interest. We have 23 months now to agree a deal with the EU and we are effectively not going to have a government for 3 of them? How is that in the national interest?

    I could understand the temptation of the polls and the desire for her own mandate but this seems a mistake to me and my guess is that it won't be quite the spectacular victory it looks like it should be right now.

    Hard to argue that Indyref2 is impossible during Brexit but a GE is.
    It is inevitable that the SNP will make Indyref2 a part of their manifesto. When they win 50 seats it is going to be impossible to resist. It probably was anyway in the longer run but May risks losing control of the timing here.
    You think that the SNP will retain 50 seats, bearing in mind that the last GE result was just after a referendum where the electorate thought the Indy issue had been decided, and Nicola Sturgeon was enjoying her honeymoon as FM? She has just spent a year trying to use EU Remain voters, many of whom might well have also been No to Indy voters to try and ram through another Indy Ref just three years after the last one.

    A lot of people are angry that Sturgeon is using their Remain vote to try to claim a mandate for another Indy Ref. SNP and Sturgeon have both been declining in the polls, the SNP at a much slower rate than their Leader it must be said. But Sturgeon is being hoist by her own pertard after her own stunt whereby she announced plans for that 2nd Indy Ref the day before May triggered Article 50. She thought she had two years of playing grudge and grievance politics. May has called her bluff, and Scots voters may just been a lot more canny when it comes to tactically voting in this GE.
    As I said to Malcolm I think 52-53 for the SNP actually. 2 Lib Dems (gain being Fife NE) zero Labour and 4-5 Tories.
    Who wins Edinburgh South? Maybe Ruth will stand there.
    Ruth Davidson ?
    Yep.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,313

    Any shouts for most surprising Tory gain from Labour then?

    Mansfield? Wrexham?

    West Midlands. Birmingham. Coventry maybe....
    Yes, the polls suggest that the biggest Lab to Con swing has been amongst C1/2 voters in the Midlands, so I would be looking at the centre of the country for the biggest surprise.
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    justin124 said:

    For the life of me I really cannot understand what Corbyn would have to lose by frustrating May on this - and so force her to go down the road of tabling a No Confidence Vote in her own Government. The polls are so bad that they would be unlikely to get any worse for him and it would have humiliated May.In addition , it could have led to the constitutional chaos and uncertainty previously discussed here at great length. His failure to so respond shows yet again why he is out of his depth - and should step aside.

    Agreed. In this bizarre situation the opposition should have recognised its 'least worst' tactic was to oppose a dissolution or even to force the govt. to carry on & negotiate A50 with a majority of 15.

    But it could have confused 100,000s of young Labour supporters who apparently believe Jeremy Corbyn is the Messiah and is headed for 10 Downing St.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,348

    Depresses me that after June 9th Ken Clarke, David Cameron, and George Osborne might not be menbers of the Parliamentary Tory Party.

    but what if Reckless and IDS are....
    Stop depressing me.
    I think that is Osborne is to stand again he would need an assurance that he would be on for a senior government job. If he is going to be frozen out again he might as well go and make a lot of money.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    TGOHF said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cyan said:

    Theresa May says in her statement that she's calling a general election because of a) the SNP and b) the House of Lords. Apparently the "game-playing" will jeopardise the form that Brexit takes if she doesn't get a bigger Tory majority in the Commons.

    How awake does a person have to be to realise that her stated reason is a complete load of crap? Never mind that she lied in the past. She is lying now.

    A general election is unlikely to change the number of SNP MPs by much, and even if it did, so what? And it won't change the composition of either the Scottish Parliament or the House of Lords one iota. And she's got a majority at the moment. Only Tory MPs can get rid of that majority - by voting against her, by crossing the floor of the House, or by getting replaced in by-elections. None of those possibilities have anything whatsoever do with the SNP or the House of Lords.

    The Kremlin and the White House will love this general election. Europe is being destabilised.

    "Division in Westminster will risk our ability to make a success of Brexit". That's funny. I thought that division in Westminster was exactly how parliamentary democracy was meant to work.

    Wrong on both counts.

    If the SNP lose seats and vote share at the GE then it very much undermines their claims that the country is now more in favour of Independence than it was before the Brexit vote.

    And depending on what goes into the manifesto in terms of Brexit promises, the Lords will be in a very different position when it comes to blocking future legislation.
    Hard to see the SNP losing vote share and doubtful even on seats, be few if any. Choice is vote hated nasty right wing Tory rule forever or vote SNP for a fairer Scotland. Easy choice.
    Not sure either way. As you know I want Scottish independence and Brexit but it is fair to point out that there was 38% of the Scottish electorate who voted in favour of Brexit and I am not sure they will be wanting to support the SNP. I can't call this at all but at least on paper it is possible that this could hurt the SNP not help it.
    the Nats could easily lose 10 seats and vote share. We've seen off peak SNP - it may take another referendum post Brexit to see them off again but by then Labour should have its act together.



    Lol the toom tabards are out and about today, not a chance. Would you care to bet on that. I am happy to do so based on them not losing 10 or more seats.
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    SNP won't be blocking a GE - BBC. It's happening.


    How could any opposition party block a GE and then be a credible opposition afterwards?

    Also, I think SNP probably welcome this opportunity. They might even think they can get a clean sweep in Scotland...at the very least reiterate their support and for IndyRef2.
    The Nats are nervous. They sense the lean years ahead for their cause.
    They are fantastic actors if they truly are nervous. Unless it's the nervousness of being on the cusp of ultimate victory.
    FWIW the SNP can't quite believe their luck !
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    fitalass said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Can't help but be a bit disappointed about this. A major part of TM's USP was that she was looking to deal with problems in the national interest. We have 23 months now to agree a deal with the EU and we are effectively not going to have a government for 3 of them? How is that in the national interest?

    I could understand the temptation of the polls and the desire for her own mandate but this seems a mistake to me and my guess is that it won't be quite the spectacular victory it looks like it should be right now.

    Hard to argue that Indyref2 is impossible during Brexit but a GE is.
    It is inevitable that the SNP will make Indyref2 a part of their manifesto. When they win 50 seats it is going to be impossible to resist. It probably was anyway in the longer run but May risks losing control of the timing here.
    You think that the SNP will retain 50 seats, bearing in mind that the last GE result was just after a referendum where the electorate thought the Indy issue had been decided, and Nicola Sturgeon was enjoying her honeymoon as FM? She has just spent a year trying to use EU Remain voters, many of whom might well have also been No to Indy voters to try and ram through another Indy Ref just three years after the last one.

    A lot of people are angry that Sturgeon is using their Remain vote to try to claim a mandate for another Indy Ref. SNP and Sturgeon have both been declining in the polls, the SNP at a much slower rate than their Leader it must be said. But Sturgeon is being hoist by her own pertard after her own stunt whereby she announced plans for that 2nd Indy Ref the day before May triggered Article 50. She thought she had two years of playing grudge and grievance politics. May has called her bluff, and Scots voters may just been a lot more canny when it comes to tactically voting in this GE.
    Who are these angry people you imagine are around. Do you ge talternative media from the rest of us. Apart from Ruthie ( current hiding from press ) and Willie ( I am not too bright Rennie ), where are they.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,313

    justin124 said:

    For the life of me I really cannot understand what Corbyn would have to lose by frustrating May on this - and so force her to go down the road of tabling a No Confidence Vote in her own Government. The polls are so bad that they would be unlikely to get any worse for him and it would have humiliated May.In addition , it could have led to the constitutional chaos and uncertainty previously discussed here at great length. His failure to so respond shows yet again why he is out of his depth - and should step aside.

    Agreed. In this bizarre situation the opposition should have recognised its 'least worst' tactic was to oppose a dissolution or even to force the govt. to carry on & negotiate A50 with a majority of 15.

    But it could have confused 100,000s of young Labour supporters who apparently believe Jeremy Corbyn is the Messiah and is headed for crucifiction.
    I fixed the last bit for you.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,892
    edited April 2017
    Looking ahead and on the bright side.

    1. Corbyn will be a footnote by the evening of June 8th when he's certain to resign.

    2.. The election will be 100% about Brexit

    3. The Lib Dems being the only party against Brexit are likely to have their best result for many decades

    4. David Miliband might be persuaded to stand
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    AndyJS said:

    DavidL said:

    fitalass said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Can't help but be a bit disappointed about this. A major part of TM's USP was that she was looking to deal with problems in the national interest. We have 23 months now to agree a deal with the EU and we are effectively not going to have a government for 3 of them? How is that in the national interest?

    I could understand the temptation of the polls and the desire for her own mandate but this seems a mistake to me and my guess is that it won't be quite the spectacular victory it looks like it should be right now.

    Hard to argue that Indyref2 is impossible during Brexit but a GE is.
    It is inevitable that the SNP will make Indyref2 a part of their manifesto. When they win 50 seats it is going to be impossible to resist. It probably was anyway in the longer run but May risks losing control of the timing here.
    You think that the SNP will retain 50 seats, bearing in mind that the last GE result was just after a referendum where the electorate thought the Indy issue had been decided, and Nicola Sturgeon was enjoying her honeymoon as FM? She has just spent a year trying to use EU Remain voters, many of whom might well have also been No to Indy voters to try and ram through another Indy Ref just three years after the last one.

    A lot of people are angry that Sturgeon is using their Remain vote to try to claim a mandate for another Indy Ref. SNP and Sturgeon have both been declining in the polls, the SNP at a much slower rate than their Leader it must be said. But Sturgeon is being hoist by her own pertard after her own stunt whereby she announced plans for that 2nd Indy Ref the day before May triggered Article 50. She thought she had two years of playing grudge and grievance politics. May has called her bluff, and Scots voters may just been a lot more canny when it comes to tactically voting in this GE.
    As I said to Malcolm I think 52-53 for the SNP actually. 2 Lib Dems (gain being Fife NE) zero Labour and 4-5 Tories.
    Who wins Edinburgh South? Maybe Ruth will stand there.
    Nothing Ng would burst the Ruth bubble faster than standing for a Westminster seat.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,654
    justin124 said:

    MattW said:

    Any shouts for most surprising Tory gain from Labour then?

    Mansfield? Wrexham?

    Bishop Auckland
    I doubt Mansfield.

    Bolsover?
    Mansfield very nearly went Tory in 1987. Labour's majority there was about 50.
    So it wouldn't be very surprising :-D
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,654
    edited April 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    MattW said:

    Any shouts for most surprising Tory gain from Labour then?

    Mansfield? Wrexham?

    Bishop Auckland
    I doubt Mansfield.

    Bolsover?
    Bolsover is safer than Mansfield. Fully expecting Con gain.
    I was addressing most surprising gains, not expected ones.

    Apols if I misdirected you with my phrasing.

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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    MattW said:

    justin124 said:

    MattW said:

    Any shouts for most surprising Tory gain from Labour then?

    Mansfield? Wrexham?

    Bishop Auckland
    I doubt Mansfield.

    Bolsover?
    Mansfield very nearly went Tory in 1987. Labour's majority there was about 50.
    So it wouldn't be very surprising :-D
    Admittedly at the time there was still a lot of residual bitterness from the 1984/85 Miners' Strike.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,654
    justin124 said:

    MattW said:

    justin124 said:

    MattW said:

    Any shouts for most surprising Tory gain from Labour then?

    Mansfield? Wrexham?

    Bishop Auckland
    I doubt Mansfield.

    Bolsover?
    Mansfield very nearly went Tory in 1987. Labour's majority there was about 50.
    So it wouldn't be very surprising :-D
    Admittedly at the time there was still a lot of residual bitterness from the 1984/85 Miners' Strike.
    I am not sure how Alan Meale will go down - been in since 1987, "Core Group Negative" on the Corbyn scale, but a Remainer.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited April 2017
    I have consistently - despite being a non-Tory - spoken quite warmly of Theresa May since she took office. Today's news has destroyed my faith in her and I now view her as every bit as slimey and slippery as Cameron & Blair. She has trashed her brand at a stroke. Admiitedly I was not going to vote Tory anyway , but I am sure there will be others who will be similarly affected and be much less inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt.
    Moreover, I voted Leave last here specifically to get rid of Cameron and Osborne. I was appaled at the style of politics they relied upon in the 2015 election and which they tried again with much success in the London Mayoral election last year. Their attempts to scare the electorate into voting Remain persuaded me to vote Leave simply to defeat that style of politics. For the first time I have to question whether I made the correct decision.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cyan said:

    Theresa May says in her statement that she's calling a general election because of a) the SNP and b) the House of Lords. Apparently the "game-playing" will jeopardise the form that Brexit takes if she doesn't get a bigger Tory majority in the Commons.

    How awake does a person have to be to realise that her stated reason is a complete load of crap? Never mind that she lied in the past. She is lying now.

    A general election is unlikely to change the number of SNP MPs by much, and even if it did, so what? And it won't change the composition of either the Scottish Parliament or the House of Lords one iota. And she's got a majority at the moment. Only Tory MPs can get rid of that majority - by voting against her, by crossing the floor of the House, or by getting replaced in by-elections. None of those possibilities have anything whatsoever do with the SNP or the House of Lords.

    The Kremlin and the White House will love this general election. Europe is being destabilised.

    "Division in Westminster will risk our ability to make a success of Brexit". That's funny. I thought that division in Westminster was exactly how parliamentary democracy was meant to work.

    Wrong on both counts.

    If the SNP lose seats and vote share at the GE then it very much undermines their claims that the country is now more in favour of Independence than it was before the Brexit vote.

    And depending on what goes into the manifesto in terms of Brexit promises, the Lords will be in a very different position when it comes to blocking future legislation.
    Hard to see the SNP losing vote share and doubtful even on seats, be few if any. Choice is vote hated nasty right wing Tory rule forever or vote SNP for a fairer Scotland. Easy choice.
    Not sure either way. As you know I want Scottish independence and Brexit but it is fair to point out that there was 38% of the Scottish electorate who voted in favour of Brexit and I am not sure they will be wanting to support the SNP. I can't call this at all but at least on paper it is possible that this could hurt the SNP not help it.
    the Nats could easily lose 10 seats and vote share. We've seen off peak SNP - it may take another referendum post Brexit to see them off again but by then Labour should have its act together.



    Lol the toom tabards are out and about today, not a chance. Would you care to bet on that. I am happy to do so based on them not losing 10 or more seats.
    They only have to lose 4 to go sub 50 - depending if you include those under the dark cloud of scandal.
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    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,713
    Floater said:



    On the other hand I could have been tempted to vote lib dems and would certainly have done so in locals... BEFORE their shameless positioning on Brexit against the will of the people and their own stated position in the past.

    As a Lib Dem, but also a Leaver, I'm probably going to do as you and vote Conservative on 8th June.

    I'm in that tight marginal seat known as Bootle so I'm sure it'll make it a close run thing.

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