politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May breaks her word and calls an early general electio
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Copeland was a safe seat.....JoeSoap said:don't bet on a land side. Labour have 160 safe seats.
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The next 7 weeks are going to see an astonishing torrent of shit showered all over Jezza and McMao. The Miliband beasting will be as nothing. The Labour Party will come to learn that the choice of leader matters. I'm going to buy popcorn before I vote Tory.
That nice Mrs May is proving to be a good'un.0 -
I think May calling this election is a hugely partisan move which is not justified by the reasons given. But I am so sick and tired of hearing 'NHS, NHS' prattled at me by Labour leaders ad naseum. It looks like a shambles, but it always has as far as I can see, and any attempt to fix it with anything other than endless money is whinged about as well, so I no longer care what either party says about it.murali_s said:
Could work my ring-wing friend. The NHS is in a shambles right now and to be honest, this is one of Labour's strong areas. Labour needs to put the focus on NHS, Education etc. and try to deflect attention from Corbyn.FrancisUrquhart said:Jezza has just made a statement shown on Daily Politics....it was evil Tories ruined the NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS...
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Site notice. Mike and myself are busy for the next few hours, so if there's no new thread for a while, that's why.0
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No, you don't do effective politics by trolling people. You are confusing the internet with reality.williamglenn said:0 -
The crux.williamglenn said:
'Still, independence cannot now be delivered without a referendum. Anything else offends the people’s inchoate sense of how the game should be played. But since the UK government has hitherto suggested the SNP lack a mandate for a second referendum – having lost seats at last year’s Holyrood election – it seems modestly idiosyncratic to hand them an opportunity to renew and reaffirm that mandate in June.
Because, make no mistake, that is what the Prime Minister has done this morning. Talk about how the SNP need to win 50 percent or more of the Scottish vote is just that: talk. That’s not how the game is played. If it were then any government failing to win 50 percent of the popular vote would have its mandate questioned. But that it not how we organise matters in what we can still, at least for now, call this country.
If the SNP win a majority of Scottish seats at a general election that is in effect a vote to decide whether there could or should be another independence referendum then that, by god, is a mandate. The will of the Scottish people, for better or worse, will have been made clear. If you have the votes, you have the votes.'0 -
I did specifically say that there could be no election before June 1st!FrancisUrquhart said:
Be about accurate as your other predictions?justin124 said:Labour might be able to make some political capital using the line ' She might be a Vicar's daughter but has now revealed herself to be a barefaced liar! ' I suspect it would be a message that could gain some traction.
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Wow. Didn't see this coming. The Tories will walk it, of course, but May has sacrificed her dull-but-honest credentials. It won't matter for now, but a little piece of her political appeal just died.0
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LibDem face-palm moment...Scott_P said:0 -
And unlike Miliband, it will be totally justified.Patrick said:The next 7 weeks are going to see an astonishing torrent of shit showered all over Jezza and McMao. The Miliband beasting will be as nothing. The Labour Party will come to learn that the choice of leader matters. I'm going to buy popcorn before I vote Tory.
That nice Mrs May is proving to be a good'un.0 -
Mike always maintained the fixed term parliament act would mean no election before 2020?TheScreamingEagles said:Site notice. Mike and myself are busy for the next few hours, so if there's no new thread for a while, that's why.
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This is just a barefaced lie, expect the announcement of a new thread imminently!TheScreamingEagles said:Site notice. Mike and myself are busy for the next few hours, so if there's no new thread for a while, that's why.
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It's all right. There's not much happening.TheScreamingEagles said:Site notice. Mike and myself are busy for the next few hours, so if there's no new thread for a while, that's why.
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Not in quite the same way. It was safe in the sense it had not gone Tory in over 80 years, but it was never so large a majority as to be unassailable. Most of those 160 are unassailable.FrancisUrquhart said:
Copeland was a safe seat.....JoeSoap said:don't bet on a land side. Labour have 160 safe seats.
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Not sure either way. As you know I want Scottish independence and Brexit but it is fair to point out that there was 38% of the Scottish electorate who voted in favour of Brexit and I am not sure they will be wanting to support the SNP. I can't call this at all but at least on paper it is possible that this could hurt the SNP not help it.malcolmg said:
Hard to see the SNP losing vote share and doubtful even on seats, be few if any. Choice is vote hated nasty right wing Tory rule forever or vote SNP for a fairer Scotland. Easy choice.Richard_Tyndall said:
Wrong on both counts.Cyan said:Theresa May says in her statement that she's calling a general election because of a) the SNP and b) the House of Lords. Apparently the "game-playing" will jeopardise the form that Brexit takes if she doesn't get a bigger Tory majority in the Commons.
How awake does a person have to be to realise that her stated reason is a complete load of crap? Never mind that she lied in the past. She is lying now.
A general election is unlikely to change the number of SNP MPs by much, and even if it did, so what? And it won't change the composition of either the Scottish Parliament or the House of Lords one iota. And she's got a majority at the moment. Only Tory MPs can get rid of that majority - by voting against her, by crossing the floor of the House, or by getting replaced in by-elections. None of those possibilities have anything whatsoever do with the SNP or the House of Lords.
The Kremlin and the White House will love this general election. Europe is being destabilised.
"Division in Westminster will risk our ability to make a success of Brexit". That's funny. I thought that division in Westminster was exactly how parliamentary democracy was meant to work.
If the SNP lose seats and vote share at the GE then it very much undermines their claims that the country is now more in favour of Independence than it was before the Brexit vote.
And depending on what goes into the manifesto in terms of Brexit promises, the Lords will be in a very different position when it comes to blocking future legislation.0 -
pity< i'd miss the popcorn eventGIN1138 said:Any news on TV debates? I'm assuming they'll be off the table as there's no time to organize them?
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Massie is an out and out unionist , unusally for them he is very balanced in his opinions.kle4 said:
Popping to the shops to buy eggs is a vote on Scottish independence, everything is.williamglenn said:0 -
Just something or other than the details of some lease agreement for a building in London that houses an EU institution. All really rather dull.DecrepitJohnL said:
It's all right. There's not much happening.TheScreamingEagles said:Site notice. Mike and myself are busy for the next few hours, so if there's no new thread for a while, that's why.
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Mike and I, not Mike and myselfTheScreamingEagles said:Site notice. Mike and myself are busy for the next few hours, so if there's no new thread for a while, that's why.
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Sturgeon on SkyMonikerDiCanio said:
No mention of independence or another referendum in Sturgeon's tweet. Tired SLAB rhetoric from the SNP leader.calum said:
They are !!Deafbloke said:
So why aren't the SNP calling for one for June 8th? What is Sturgeon afraid of? Or are they not serious about independence?calum said:
As the Tories look likely to sweep to a 100+ seat majority - Scotland's voters minds will be focused by this !! - I think today's moves will only strengthen the case for an IndyRef2 sooner rather than later.FF43 said:
Vote SNP for Indyref2 and against a hard Brexit. They will clean up Scottish seats on a FPTP basis and Theresa May will have quite a lot of trouble with it. The SNP can reasonably claim a mandate from the Scottish electorate for their Indyref stance, and do so much more easily than they could with a Holyrood election.Alistair said:So, wait, what if the SNP stand on a "Vote SNP for IndyRef2" platform and get 40+ MPs?
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/8542859585350983690 -
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I suspect that would have been followed by a very large Labour revolt voting in favour of dissolution and Corbyn would have been the one hugely weakened.PeterMannion said:
That would have been fabulous!williamglenn said:
Imagine what would have happened if May had made that statement and then Corbyn had immediately said he wasn't going to vote for it and told her to get on with the job? She would have been hugely weakened.FF43 said:
What it actually proves is that the "Leader" of the "Opposition" is an idiot. That's not guaranteed in all circumstances.rottenborough said:
As I have been banging on about for ages. It is the biggest load of b*llx in a long, long time, as was obvious from the moment Osborne dreamt it up. May has simply proved the case. Get rid of it.FrancisUrquhart said:Can we just get rid of Fix Term Act now, because it is clearly a total waste of time.
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Corbyn will go but they might replace him with John McDonnell or someone similar.SeanT said:
I think even Jezza will go, after a total tonking in a General Election. If he doesn't, as Southam says, he will be challenged, and - this time - he will lose.Dura_Ace said:
What about his conduct to date leads you to believe that a GE loss will cause him to resign?SeanT said:
You should be happy. Corbyn will go on June 9. Labour will return to its senses, albeit with 150 seats. The slow recovery can start.SouthamObserver said:
They should walk it this time. The LDs will take a lot of Labour votes.AndyJS said:Hampstead & Kilburn will be interesting. Tories haven't won it since 1987 (ignoring the boundary changes).
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Viscount Thurso cannot run again - he's back in the Lords now.Scott_P said:
Will Ken Clarke run? He was due to retire in 2020 as it was.
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In my eyes the discovery that when she means yes she says no, the little minx, makes her even sexier than she was before.Stark_Dawning said:Wow. Didn't see this coming. The Tories will walk it, of course, but May has sacrificed her dull-but-honest credentials. It won't matter for now, but a little piece of her political appeal just died.
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Oh, I don't actually disagree with the point that this is a vote on Scottish independence in many ways, just having a bit of fun.malcolmg said:
Massie is an out and out unionist , unusally for them he is very balanced in his opinions.kle4 said:
Popping to the shops to buy eggs is a vote on Scottish independence, everything is.williamglenn said:0 -
To be honest, I think unionism is now dead within the Tory party. The Tories are now wholly preoccupied with engineering the hardest of Brexits for England. The Union, and pretty much everything else, can get stuffed.Theuniondivvie said:
The crux.williamglenn said:
'Still, independence cannot now be delivered without a referendum. Anything else offends the people’s inchoate sense of how the game should be played. But since the UK government has hitherto suggested the SNP lack a mandate for a second referendum – having lost seats at last year’s Holyrood election – it seems modestly idiosyncratic to hand them an opportunity to renew and reaffirm that mandate in June.
Because, make no mistake, that is what the Prime Minister has done this morning. Talk about how the SNP need to win 50 percent or more of the Scottish vote is just that: talk. That’s not how the game is played. If it were then any government failing to win 50 percent of the popular vote would have its mandate questioned. But that it not how we organise matters in what we can still, at least for now, call this country.
If the SNP win a majority of Scottish seats at a general election that is in effect a vote to decide whether there could or should be another independence referendum then that, by god, is a mandate. The will of the Scottish people, for better or worse, will have been made clear. If you have the votes, you have the votes.'0 -
The 2015 election labour was a three club golfer, NHS, bedroom tax and the cuts. There was little else. Since then what they did have has reduced to just one thing, the NHS. So now they act like the one club golfer. It's gone too far. People just don't believe it anymore, NHS crisis fatigue.kle4 said:
I think May calling this election is a hugely partisan move which is not justified by the reasons given. But I am so sick and tired of hearing 'NHS, NHS' prattled at me by Labour leaders ad naseum. It looks like a shambles, but it always has as far as I can see, and any attempt to fix it with anything other than endless money is whinged about as well, so I no longer care what either party says about it.murali_s said:
Could work my ring-wing friend. The NHS is in a shambles right now and to be honest, this is one of Labour's strong areas. Labour needs to put the focus on NHS, Education etc. and try to deflect attention from Corbyn.FrancisUrquhart said:Jezza has just made a statement shown on Daily Politics....it was evil Tories ruined the NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS...
For anyone who thinks that focusing a campaign around the NHS is the salvation of labour, I have one word for you, I'll repeat it three times.
Copeland, Copeland and Copeland.
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Sturgeon all at sea on Sky.calum said:
Sturgeon on SkyMonikerDiCanio said:
No mention of independence or another referendum in Sturgeon's tweet. Tired SLAB rhetoric from the SNP leader.calum said:
They are !!Deafbloke said:
So why aren't the SNP calling for one for June 8th? What is Sturgeon afraid of? Or are they not serious about independence?calum said:
As the Tories look likely to sweep to a 100+ seat majority - Scotland's voters minds will be focused by this !! - I think today's moves will only strengthen the case for an IndyRef2 sooner rather than later.FF43 said:
Vote SNP for Indyref2 and against a hard Brexit. They will clean up Scottish seats on a FPTP basis and Theresa May will have quite a lot of trouble with it. The SNP can reasonably claim a mandate from the Scottish electorate for their Indyref stance, and do so much more easily than they could with a Holyrood election.Alistair said:So, wait, what if the SNP stand on a "Vote SNP for IndyRef2" platform and get 40+ MPs?
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/8542859585350983690 -
Yes...in all seriousness, Tories and Labour have some sort of firewall under FPTP. I still expect Jezza to manage to f##k up some seats for Labour, but Stoke shows that even a foul mouthed numpty with a red rosette can still get elected in certain seats.kle4 said:
Not in quite the same way. It was safe in the sense it had not gone Tory in over 80 years, but it was never so large a majority as to be unassailable. Most of those 160 are unassailable.FrancisUrquhart said:
Copeland was a safe seat.....JoeSoap said:don't bet on a land side. Labour have 160 safe seats.
All this talk of sub 20% is nonsense. What Jezza has managed is well and truly break through the 30% firewall for Labour and damage the brand among moderate centrist swing voters.0 -
Re Gorton. On or off. `1979 general election, Government fell on 28th March, Edge Hill by election held 29th March. Is it a sort a parallel?. The new MP only took his seat after the General Election.0
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Given her open talk of liking the idea of a new centrist party, will Soubry even be allowed to restand?0
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The prior Labour majority was 6.5% reasonable but cannot be described as safe .FrancisUrquhart said:
Copeland was a safe seat.....JoeSoap said:don't bet on a land side. Labour have 160 safe seats.
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Ms. Apocalypse, contrary to my expectation, Ladbrokes have the favourite band of Labour support as 20-25% (3). The next band (up to 30%) is 3.25.0
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Steady on! footballers have been jailed for that sort of talk!Ishmael_Z said:
In my eyes the discovery that when she means yes she says no, the little minx, makes her even sexier than she was before.Stark_Dawning said:Wow. Didn't see this coming. The Tories will walk it, of course, but May has sacrificed her dull-but-honest credentials. It won't matter for now, but a little piece of her political appeal just died.
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@BethRigby: 2 Labour MP say they haven't decided whether to vote for election: informal meeting of "friends" about to start where some MPs talk tactics0
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Think the Lib Dems will get 2 and the Tories up to 5. Will Labour hold onto 1? Probably not. So maybe 52-53?malcolmg said:
be surprised if they end up as low as 50 DavidDavidL said:
It is inevitable that the SNP will make Indyref2 a part of their manifesto. When they win 50 seats it is going to be impossible to resist. It probably was anyway in the longer run but May risks losing control of the timing here.foxinsoxuk said:
Hard to argue that Indyref2 is impossible during Brexit but a GE is.DavidL said:Can't help but be a bit disappointed about this. A major part of TM's USP was that she was looking to deal with problems in the national interest. We have 23 months now to agree a deal with the EU and we are effectively not going to have a government for 3 of them? How is that in the national interest?
I could understand the temptation of the polls and the desire for her own mandate but this seems a mistake to me and my guess is that it won't be quite the spectacular victory it looks like it should be right now.0 -
Bet on both?Morris_Dancer said:Ms. Apocalypse, contrary to my expectation, Ladbrokes have the favourite band of Labour support as 20-25% (3). The next band (up to 30%) is 3.25.
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Have I understood correctly that the plan is for a vote tomorrow on the new election? All the leaders seem to be in favour of one and I'm sure MPs of all parties would love to flip a coin and see if they get to keep their jobs, but what if the vote clashes with Culinary Genius?0
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Interesting.Morris_Dancer said:Ms. Apocalypse, contrary to my expectation, Ladbrokes have the favourite band of Labour support as 20-25% (3). The next band (up to 30%) is 3.25.
Hopefully this GE will totally kill the hard-left forever. I can't believe Labour have to learn the same lessons of the 1980s AGAIN.0 -
Maybe she got wind that the by-election fraud cases were coming to a head. It was certainly a risky strategy for her to take, but it looks to have paid off thanks to the element of surprise and the opposition being incompetent. If Labour had come up with a semi-plausible reason for not calling a snap election, it would have been a nasty stalemate. She would have to pursue the holding of the election and keep the Brexit wagon rolling at the same time.kle4 said:Being charitable she may not have lied then, her intention may still have been not to hold one. However like you I am at a loss as to how her stated reasons explain this, since they existed back then.
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Labour aren't going to go sub 25%. When push comes to shove there will be enough that employ Polly trademarked nose peg.Morris_Dancer said:Ms. Apocalypse, contrary to my expectation, Ladbrokes have the favourite band of Labour support as 20-25% (3). The next band (up to 30%) is 3.25.
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I would be surprised if there are any debates. The Tories are miles ahead so why would they risk it?LucyJones said:
Salisbury convention means the unelected Lords won't vote down legislation included in the government's manifesto. Many of May's current proposals were not in the Conservative 2015 manifesto - e.g. leaving Single Market, Grammar schools.kle4 said:
Who won elections.justin124 said:I think it could be the moment that her mask slipped and begins to be seen as a cynical ,slippery politician no different to the likes of Cameron & Blair.
I'm in agreement with Foxinox about INdyref - it cannot be the case that you can have a GE disrupt the negotiations but not an INdyref.
Also agree that Corbyn is a decent performer in debates - he could surprise.
May has done a poor job justifying this on the grounds of a changed situation, but that Corbyn has picked up the gauntlet nullifies the partisan accusation a little, though not completely.
Also, is she advocating abolishing the Lords? She cited 'unelected' lords as a block on brexit causing difficulty, an election won't change that unless she is planning to do something with them.0 -
Most likely Labour gain from Conservative: Croydon Central due to demographic change. Still unlikely though given the polling situation.0
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SeanT said:
SNP won't be blocking a GE - BBC. It's happening.
How could any opposition party block a GE and then be a credible opposition afterwards?
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Too late for deselection of sitting MPs surely?kle4 said:Given her open talk of liking the idea of a new centrist party, will Soubry even be allowed to restand?
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This guy can't write. "Modestly idiosyncratic", "renew and reaffirm", "is in effect", etc. etc. Talk is talk, apparently. And, he tells us, if you have the votes then you have the votes. Take this guy's pen away from him, someone, please!Theuniondivvie said:
The crux.williamglenn said:
'Still, independence cannot now be delivered without a referendum. Anything else offends the people’s inchoate sense of how the game should be played. But since the UK government has hitherto suggested the SNP lack a mandate for a second referendum – having lost seats at last year’s Holyrood election – it seems modestly idiosyncratic to hand them an opportunity to renew and reaffirm that mandate in June.
Because, make no mistake, that is what the Prime Minister has done this morning. Talk about how the SNP need to win 50 percent or more of the Scottish vote is just that: talk. That’s not how the game is played. If it were then any government failing to win 50 percent of the popular vote would have its mandate questioned. But that it not how we organise matters in what we can still, at least for now, call this country.
If the SNP win a majority of Scottish seats at a general election that is in effect a vote to decide whether there could or should be another independence referendum then that, by god, is a mandate. The will of the Scottish people, for better or worse, will have been made clear. If you have the votes, you have the votes.'
He's right, though. It's bad for the SNP that there are higher turnouts in Scotland in British general elections than in local Scottish ones. But that's outweighed by a great advantage for them: the House of Commons is elected by FPTP.0 -
You could say that about any campaigning from May. Can she manage to avoid any unplanned interaction with the public?IanB2 said:
I would be surprised if there are any debates. The Tories are miles ahead so why would they risk it?LucyJones said:
Salisbury convention means the unelected Lords won't vote down legislation included in the government's manifesto. Many of May's current proposals were not in the Conservative 2015 manifesto - e.g. leaving Single Market, Grammar schools.kle4 said:
Who won elections.justin124 said:I think it could be the moment that her mask slipped and begins to be seen as a cynical ,slippery politician no different to the likes of Cameron & Blair.
I'm in agreement with Foxinox about INdyref - it cannot be the case that you can have a GE disrupt the negotiations but not an INdyref.
Also agree that Corbyn is a decent performer in debates - he could surprise.
May has done a poor job justifying this on the grounds of a changed situation, but that Corbyn has picked up the gauntlet nullifies the partisan accusation a little, though not completely.
Also, is she advocating abolishing the Lords? She cited 'unelected' lords as a block on brexit causing difficulty, an election won't change that unless she is planning to do something with them.0 -
Exactly why it would have been fabulous (and so much quicker and cheaper than a GE)!Richard_Tyndall said:
I suspect that would have been followed by a very large Labour revolt voting in favour of dissolution and Corbyn would have been the one hugely weakened.PeterMannion said:
That would have been fabulous!williamglenn said:
Imagine what would have happened if May had made that statement and then Corbyn had immediately said he wasn't going to vote for it and told her to get on with the job? She would have been hugely weakened.FF43 said:
What it actually proves is that the "Leader" of the "Opposition" is an idiot. That's not guaranteed in all circumstances.rottenborough said:
As I have been banging on about for ages. It is the biggest load of b*llx in a long, long time, as was obvious from the moment Osborne dreamt it up. May has simply proved the case. Get rid of it.FrancisUrquhart said:Can we just get rid of Fix Term Act now, because it is clearly a total waste of time.
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Also, I think SNP probably welcome this opportunity. They might even think they can get a clean sweep in Scotland...at the very least reiterate their support and for IndyRef2.MarkHopkins said:SeanT said:SNP won't be blocking a GE - BBC. It's happening.
How could any opposition party block a GE and then be a credible opposition afterwards?0 -
The prime minister and cabinet are calling an election on obviously false pretences, and it could well lead Britain to break up.
Who's that good for?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zaw5Zm6EskA
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For the life of me I really cannot understand what Corbyn would have to lose by frustrating May on this - and so force her to go down the road of tabling a No Confidence Vote in her own Government. The polls are so bad that they would be unlikely to get any worse for him and it would have humiliated May.In addition , it could have led to the constitutional chaos and uncertainty previously discussed here at great length. His failure to so respond shows yet again why he is out of his depth - and should step aside.0
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lol - that would add some colour to the LD campaign.Scott_P said:0 -
Mr Farron's GE launch email and fundraiser lands in my inbox at 13:01
Swiftly followed by one from a local former Labour voter wanting to reverse Brexit and offering to deliver leaflets for the LibDems 'just this time' to get rid of the local Labour MP who voted Brexit through.0 -
He thinks the Union is worth more than the temporary convenience of Mrs May.malcolmg said:
Massie is an out and out unionist , unusally for them he is very balanced in his opinions.kle4 said:
Popping to the shops to buy eggs is a vote on Scottish independence, everything is.williamglenn said:0 -
Depresses me that after June 9th Ken Clarke, David Cameron, and George Osborne might not be menbers of the Parliamentary Tory Party.0
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If it wasn't a credible opposition before?MarkHopkins said:SeanT said:SNP won't be blocking a GE - BBC. It's happening.
How could any opposition party block a GE and then be a credible opposition afterwards?
Or was that question actually a riddle?!0 -
Woman's privelige to change her mind as a girl said to me once when handing back the ring I'd bought her.Ishmael_Z said:
In my eyes the discovery that when she means yes she says no, the little minx, makes her even sexier than she was before.Stark_Dawning said:Wow. Didn't see this coming. The Tories will walk it, of course, but May has sacrificed her dull-but-honest credentials. It won't matter for now, but a little piece of her political appeal just died.
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Any shouts for most surprising Tory gain from Labour then?
Mansfield? Wrexham?0 -
1253 for me!IanB2 said:Mr Farron's GE launch email and fundraiser lands in my inbox at 13:01
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A few thoughts - no time to hit reply sorry.
1. I think Nick Clegg WILL stand - leading for the Lib Dems on Brexit has given him a new lease of life.
2. The Lib Dems are in a much stronger position to fight than in 2015 - stacks of new, keen members, big cause to fight for, and fewer held but doomed seats to waste time in.
3. I think this is really about the Great Repeal Act, I couldn't see how that would get through the Commons and Lords without a manifesto commitment given the opposition to the Henry VIII stuff about letting minsters rewrite laws.
4. Theresa May will have to work on her excuse for this election, as blaming opposition parties for opposing is very weak.
5. Labour are already trying to say that it's not about Brexit. Yeah, good luck with that one. They are going to get slaughtered, but it needs to happen to see where their path is taking them. I'm actually glad that Jeremy Corbyn will get a national verdict.
And finally.
6. Guess which fool spent the morning leafletting Manchester Gorton yesterday? Great timing as ever.
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Clarke to the Lords ?TheScreamingEagles said:Depresses me that after June 9th Ken Clarke, David Cameron, and George Osborne might not be menbers of the Parliamentary Tory Party.
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but what if Reckless and IDS are....TheScreamingEagles said:Depresses me that after June 9th Ken Clarke, David Cameron, and George Osborne might not be menbers of the Parliamentary Tory Party.
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Bishop AucklandAllyPally_Rob said:Any shouts for most surprising Tory gain from Labour then?
Mansfield? Wrexham?0 -
Lib Dems gain 1000 new members since the announcement.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-general-election-2017-lib-dems-gain-members-1000-a7688711.html0 -
What an oddly stupid idea for someone who portrays normalcy and rationality most of the time. Does the good of the country matter so little to you?kle4 said:I'm hoping for dramatic and massive gains across the SW for the LDs against the Tories - not because I care who rules the roost in local areas, but because it would be bloody funny for May to have called a GE, only then to see the Tories lose lots of local seats in the Tory shires and panic sweat a bit.
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The Labour MPs who did that would have been effectively deselected by being denied NEC endorsement.Richard_Tyndall said:
I suspect that would have been followed by a very large Labour revolt voting in favour of dissolution and Corbyn would have been the one hugely weakened.PeterMannion said:
That would have been fabulous!williamglenn said:
Imagine what would have happened if May had made that statement and then Corbyn had immediately said he wasn't going to vote for it and told her to get on with the job? She would have been hugely weakened.FF43 said:
What it actually proves is that the "Leader" of the "Opposition" is an idiot. That's not guaranteed in all circumstances.rottenborough said:
As I have been banging on about for ages. It is the biggest load of b*llx in a long, long time, as was obvious from the moment Osborne dreamt it up. May has simply proved the case. Get rid of it.FrancisUrquhart said:Can we just get rid of Fix Term Act now, because it is clearly a total waste of time.
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Am surprised by May's move but clearly she decided she needed her own mandate before the Brexit talks began. Now if voters want a softer Brexit than she proposes they can vote Labour or if they want to reverse the invoking of Article 50 altogether they can vote LD. If May wins as comfortably as polls suggest though nobody can deny she has a mandate for Brexit on her own terms
As for Scotland as this will be a UK wide election I doubt it changes much and as the SNP hold all but 3 seats if they lose a few to the Tories and LDs it May even produce a slight swing back to unionist parties0 -
Debates are a fixture now. It is just the format that will be controversial.IanB2 said:
I would be surprised if there are any debates. The Tories are miles ahead so why would they risk it?LucyJones said:
Salisbury convention means the unelected Lords won't vote down legislation included in the government's manifesto. Many of May's current proposals were not in the Conservative 2015 manifesto - e.g. leaving Single Market, Grammar schools.kle4 said:
Who won elections.justin124 said:I think it could be the moment that her mask slipped and begins to be seen as a cynical ,slippery politician no different to the likes of Cameron & Blair.
I'm in agreement with Foxinox about INdyref - it cannot be the case that you can have a GE disrupt the negotiations but not an INdyref.
Also agree that Corbyn is a decent performer in debates - he could surprise.
May has done a poor job justifying this on the grounds of a changed situation, but that Corbyn has picked up the gauntlet nullifies the partisan accusation a little, though not completely.
Also, is she advocating abolishing the Lords? She cited 'unelected' lords as a block on brexit causing difficulty, an election won't change that unless she is planning to do something with them.0 -
12:56 (13 minutes ago)foxinsoxuk said:
1253 for me!IanB2 said:Mr Farron's GE launch email and fundraiser lands in my inbox at 13:01
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Yes, I got 1253 when I checked my other email account. Maybe it was sent out in batches. Or my webmail account is just slower.foxinsoxuk said:
1253 for me!IanB2 said:Mr Farron's GE launch email and fundraiser lands in my inbox at 13:01
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Expecting a summer party leadership election?williamglenn said:Lib Dems gain 1000 new members since the announcement.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-general-election-2017-lib-dems-gain-members-1000-a7688711.html0 -
Mr. Urquhart, that's probably my feeling too... but it depends how good the Conservative campaign is.
Ms. Apocalypse, the sooner Corbyn's gone, the better. But odds can be wrong, as we've seen quite a lot in recent years.0 -
2015 ones were a farce.foxinsoxuk said:
Debates are a fixture now. It is just the format that will be controversial.IanB2 said:
I would be surprised if there are any debates. The Tories are miles ahead so why would they risk it?LucyJones said:
Salisbury convention means the unelected Lords won't vote down legislation included in the government's manifesto. Many of May's current proposals were not in the Conservative 2015 manifesto - e.g. leaving Single Market, Grammar schools.kle4 said:
Who won elections.justin124 said:I think it could be the moment that her mask slipped and begins to be seen as a cynical ,slippery politician no different to the likes of Cameron & Blair.
I'm in agreement with Foxinox about INdyref - it cannot be the case that you can have a GE disrupt the negotiations but not an INdyref.
Also agree that Corbyn is a decent performer in debates - he could surprise.
May has done a poor job justifying this on the grounds of a changed situation, but that Corbyn has picked up the gauntlet nullifies the partisan accusation a little, though not completely.
Also, is she advocating abolishing the Lords? She cited 'unelected' lords as a block on brexit causing difficulty, an election won't change that unless she is planning to do something with them.0 -
Looks like it will be Corbyn leading Labour into the general election after all0
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the Nats could easily lose 10 seats and vote share. We've seen off peak SNP - it may take another referendum post Brexit to see them off again but by then Labour should have its act together.Richard_Tyndall said:
Not sure either way. As you know I want Scottish independence and Brexit but it is fair to point out that there was 38% of the Scottish electorate who voted in favour of Brexit and I am not sure they will be wanting to support the SNP. I can't call this at all but at least on paper it is possible that this could hurt the SNP not help it.malcolmg said:
Hard to see the SNP losing vote share and doubtful even on seats, be few if any. Choice is vote hated nasty right wing Tory rule forever or vote SNP for a fairer Scotland. Easy choice.Richard_Tyndall said:
Wrong on both counts.Cyan said:Theresa May says in her statement that she's calling a general election because of a) the SNP and b) the House of Lords. Apparently the "game-playing" will jeopardise the form that Brexit takes if she doesn't get a bigger Tory majority in the Commons.
How awake does a person have to be to realise that her stated reason is a complete load of crap? Never mind that she lied in the past. She is lying now.
A general election is unlikely to change the number of SNP MPs by much, and even if it did, so what? And it won't change the composition of either the Scottish Parliament or the House of Lords one iota. And she's got a majority at the moment. Only Tory MPs can get rid of that majority - by voting against her, by crossing the floor of the House, or by getting replaced in by-elections. None of those possibilities have anything whatsoever do with the SNP or the House of Lords.
The Kremlin and the White House will love this general election. Europe is being destabilised.
"Division in Westminster will risk our ability to make a success of Brexit". That's funny. I thought that division in Westminster was exactly how parliamentary democracy was meant to work.
If the SNP lose seats and vote share at the GE then it very much undermines their claims that the country is now more in favour of Independence than it was before the Brexit vote.
And depending on what goes into the manifesto in terms of Brexit promises, the Lords will be in a very different position when it comes to blocking future legislation.
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I doubt Mansfield.SandyRentool said:
Bishop AucklandAllyPally_Rob said:Any shouts for most surprising Tory gain from Labour then?
Mansfield? Wrexham?
Bolsover?0 -
No. Tim is doing a very good job.SandyRentool said:
Expecting a summer party leadership election?williamglenn said:Lib Dems gain 1000 new members since the announcement.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-general-election-2017-lib-dems-gain-members-1000-a7688711.html0 -
You think that the SNP will retain 50 seats, bearing in mind that the last GE result was just after a referendum where the electorate thought the Indy issue had been decided, and Nicola Sturgeon was enjoying her honeymoon as FM? She has just spent a year trying to use EU Remain voters, many of whom might well have also been No to Indy voters to try and ram through another Indy Ref just three years after the last one.DavidL said:
It is inevitable that the SNP will make Indyref2 a part of their manifesto. When they win 50 seats it is going to be impossible to resist. It probably was anyway in the longer run but May risks losing control of the timing here.foxinsoxuk said:
Hard to argue that Indyref2 is impossible during Brexit but a GE is.DavidL said:Can't help but be a bit disappointed about this. A major part of TM's USP was that she was looking to deal with problems in the national interest. We have 23 months now to agree a deal with the EU and we are effectively not going to have a government for 3 of them? How is that in the national interest?
I could understand the temptation of the polls and the desire for her own mandate but this seems a mistake to me and my guess is that it won't be quite the spectacular victory it looks like it should be right now.
A lot of people are angry that Sturgeon is using their Remain vote to try to claim a mandate for another Indy Ref. SNP and Sturgeon have both been declining in the polls, the SNP at a much slower rate than their Leader it must be said. But Sturgeon is being hoist by her own pertard after her own stunt whereby she announced plans for that 2nd Indy Ref the day before May triggered Article 50. She thought she had two years of playing grudge and grievance politics. May has called her bluff, and Scots voters may just been a lot more canny when it comes to tactically voting in this GE.0 -
Since May seems committed now to Lords reform (funny that) as she is painting them as the enemy leading to this GE, then if she is not ready for full abolishment the first thing she could do is several quick fixes, one of which would be someone cannot be elevated to the peerage if they have been an MP in the last 10 years or so - it's not a retirement home.TGOHF said:
Clarke to the Lords ?TheScreamingEagles said:Depresses me that after June 9th Ken Clarke, David Cameron, and George Osborne might not be menbers of the Parliamentary Tory Party.
They should also expel members who have not participated in a reasonable (to be defined) number of votes in the past 2 years - that will trim the numbers to a managable level and get rid of those not properly contributing from coming in to disrupt things.
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Given that would include probably the vast majority of the Labour Parliamentary party I think that would have been just another suicidal move by the NEC.justin124 said:
The Labour MPs who did that would have been effectively deselected by being denied NEC endorsement.Richard_Tyndall said:
I suspect that would have been followed by a very large Labour revolt voting in favour of dissolution and Corbyn would have been the one hugely weakened.PeterMannion said:
That would have been fabulous!williamglenn said:
Imagine what would have happened if May had made that statement and then Corbyn had immediately said he wasn't going to vote for it and told her to get on with the job? She would have been hugely weakened.FF43 said:
What it actually proves is that the "Leader" of the "Opposition" is an idiot. That's not guaranteed in all circumstances.rottenborough said:
As I have been banging on about for ages. It is the biggest load of b*llx in a long, long time, as was obvious from the moment Osborne dreamt it up. May has simply proved the case. Get rid of it.FrancisUrquhart said:Can we just get rid of Fix Term Act now, because it is clearly a total waste of time.
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Some people off stage are going to have to work out what they want to do PDQ. Will Balls stand? I hope so. Will David Miliband stand? Probably not. Bigger fish to fry.0
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Bolsover is safer than Mansfield. Fully expecting Con gain.MattW said:
I doubt Mansfield.SandyRentool said:
Bishop AucklandAllyPally_Rob said:Any shouts for most surprising Tory gain from Labour then?
Mansfield? Wrexham?
Bolsover?0 -
Probably somewhere in the Midlands like Coventry NW or Leicester West.AllyPally_Rob said:Any shouts for most surprising Tory gain from Labour then?
Mansfield? Wrexham?0 -
Are the rumours true that the Tories were looking at a clutch of by elections?0
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It fills me with pleasure. Especially if Carswell and Gove are still in Parliament. Clearing out the remains of the Cameroon failures.TheScreamingEagles said:Depresses me that after June 9th Ken Clarke, David Cameron, and George Osborne might not be menbers of the Parliamentary Tory Party.
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Guaranteed.TGOHF said:
Clarke to the Lords ?TheScreamingEagles said:Depresses me that after June 9th Ken Clarke, David Cameron, and George Osborne might not be menbers of the Parliamentary Tory Party.
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Am I right in thinking if Dennis Skinner wins again, he will be 90 by the time of the next GE?Pulpstar said:
Bolsover is safer than Mansfield. Fully expecting Con gain.MattW said:
I doubt Mansfield.SandyRentool said:
Bishop AucklandAllyPally_Rob said:Any shouts for most surprising Tory gain from Labour then?
Mansfield? Wrexham?
Bolsover?0 -
Stop depressing me.Scrapheap_as_was said:
but what if Reckless and IDS are....TheScreamingEagles said:Depresses me that after June 9th Ken Clarke, David Cameron, and George Osborne might not be menbers of the Parliamentary Tory Party.
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"We're in the midst of the trickiest negotiations this country has faced since the War. Now is not the time for distractions. Unlike Mrs May, the Labour Party takes very seriously its responsibility for getting the best deal for the country and will hold the government's feet to the fire to ensure they are." etc etcMarkHopkins said:SeanT said:SNP won't be blocking a GE - BBC. It's happening.
How could any opposition party block a GE and then be a credible opposition afterwards?
Basically, throw Theresa May's words back at her. It doesn't have to be universally believed. It just has to sound plausible.
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The Nats are nervous. They sense the lean years ahead for their cause.FrancisUrquhart said:
Also, I think SNP probably welcome this opportunity. They might even think they can get a clean sweep in Scotland...at the very least reiterate their support and for IndyRef2.MarkHopkins said:SeanT said:SNP won't be blocking a GE - BBC. It's happening.
How could any opposition party block a GE and then be a credible opposition afterwards?0 -
Coventry NW won't be a surprise to me !AndyJS said:
Probably somewhere in the Midlands like Coventry NW or Leicester West.AllyPally_Rob said:Any shouts for most surprising Tory gain from Labour then?
Mansfield? Wrexham?
Coventry North East would be...0 -
Cons gain Bootle.0
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West Midlands. Birmingham. Coventry maybe....AllyPally_Rob said:Any shouts for most surprising Tory gain from Labour then?
Mansfield? Wrexham?0
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