politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May breaks her word and calls an early general electio
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It'll be an irrelevant opposition if they're facing a party with a 150+ majoritySouthamObserver said:The smart play from Corbyn now would be to resign with immediate effect. That would give Labour MPs credible reasons to vote against an early general election. Obviously, Corbyn is not smart so he'll be resigning on 9th June instead. But the good news is that we are going to get a functioning opposition rather sooner than expected.
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Of course, this will be yet another GE fought on 650 seats rather than 600....I wonder if we will ever see the reduction in seats?0
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The Lords can't block it. Under the FTPA it simply requires a vote on the Commons.BudG said:Biggest obstacle to an election might be the Lords
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Think it is more than that. The left in her party would stop Grammar Schools, the opposition would play havoc with the Brexit legislation and of course the problems with the electoral commission are over.IanB2 said:May's nature would suggest she has been brooding on this for a while, and didn't just get up in the morning, see Labour's worst ever opposition poll rating, and decide to go for it.
Just amazing politics0 -
Ken Clarke for the off ?
Happy days.0 -
QTWTAINFrancisUrquhart said:Of course, this will be yet another GE fought on 650 seats rather than 600....I wonder if we will ever see the reduction in seats?
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@gabyhinsliff: Instant Farron statement - vote libdem if you don't want a hard/any Brexit - vs 'not quite sure when Labour will respond'.0
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May - the politicians' politician.
May - the generals' general.0 -
As long as Lab hold Islington North, Corbyn probably won't be resigning.SouthamObserver said:The smart play from Corbyn now would be to resign with immediate effect. That would give Labour MPs credible reasons to vote against an early general election. Obviously, Corbyn is not smart so he'll be resigning on 9th June instead. But the good news is that we are going to get a functioning opposition rather sooner than expected.
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Remainers have their second referendum. If the country elects 326 strongly pro-Europe MPs they could reverse Brexit.0
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Wonder about the campaign finances here. Conservatives must be in pretty good shape (though no busing people in this time lol). Labour and the others can't be in good shape.0
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She has spared the Labour Party another three years of Corbyn etc. They should be thanking her.0
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But if the danger is significant (which is hard to judge from the outside), the most at-risk candidates might withdraw.AlastairMeeks said:No. if the investigated candidates are convicted later, they'll still have to resign. Of course, that will be a minor annoyance if the government majority is 200.
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I've stuck in an update0
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What makes you think there'll be a functioning opposition? The labour party is devoid of ideas, principles and a potential leader, the only thing that will change is Corbyn.SouthamObserver said:The smart play from Corbyn now would be to resign with immediate effect. That would give Labour MPs credible reasons to vote against an early general election. Obviously, Corbyn is not smart so he'll be resigning on 9th June instead. But the good news is that we are going to get a functioning opposition rather sooner than expected.
Same horse different jockey0 -
Hopefully your party will sort out its hard left and anti semitic problems.SouthamObserver said:The smart play from Corbyn now would be to resign with immediate effect. That would give Labour MPs credible reasons to vote against an early general election. Obviously, Corbyn is not smart so he'll be resigning on 9th June instead. But the good news is that we are going to get a functioning opposition rather sooner than expected.
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All that supposed secret polling showing Lib Dems doing well against Tories on the narrative of anti-Brexit...either it was bollocks or May has thought bring it on.0
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leave off the Turnip flavour IrnBru malc, it's clouding your judgementmalcolmg said:
They would be sensible to leave Tories on the Brexit hook, come 2020 and UK is facing a bleak future after dire Brexit , Labour could do well.justin124 said:I am rather hoping that Labour refuses to play ball here!
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Ahhh.. thanks for clarifying thatprh47bridge said:
The Lords can't block it. Under the FTPA it simply requires a vote on the Commons.BudG said:Biggest obstacle to an election might be the Lords
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It's possible, but most people won't have noticed that there was a pledge. Labour might try to bring it up but I wouldn't be confident in their ability to make it stick - especially as they'll have to agree in order for it to happen.jonny83 said:Chance this might backfire with the public? She gave her word there wouldn't be and she has gone back on it even it makes sense to do so with brexit negotiations being affected by having a small majority.
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Will the local elections in May be postponed until June to coincide with the general election?0
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In better news (For my finances)
http://opinionlab.opinion-way.com/opinionlab/832/627/presitrack.html
Macron 23
Le Pen 22
Fillon 20
Melenchon 190 -
Mr. Rising, that assumes Corbyn resigns. He might stay on.0
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Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 5m5 minutes ago
May has gone for a seven week campaign. Governments well ahead normally keep it short. Just how many Corbyn/IRA stories do they have?0 -
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ROFLTGOHF said:
Paddy PowerVerified account @paddypower 8m8 minutes agoIanB2 said:Go LibDems - first out of the gate with a reaction!
I wonder when Labour's National Executive Press Release sub committee is next due to meet?
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Jeremy Corbyn is in for a shock when he wakes up in 45 minutes. #GeneralElection0 -
Well, that's an eye-opener.
I'm surprised she didn't wait till after the local elections, like Maggie.0 -
The left wingers generally have the safer seats, especially in London, but this is of course a Remain area. The Tories aren't the only party whose position on Brexit will come under scrutiny over the next couple of months,..Fenster said:How many of the Lab MPs who voted for Corbyn to stand in the Lab leadership election are likely to lose their seats?
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jonny83 said:
Wonder about the campaign finances here. Conservatives must be in pretty good shape (though no busing people in this time lol). Labour and the others can't be in good shape.
ScottPFasial Islam just said on Sky Labour's finances were in good shape now. Or perhaps they have pulled a Gordon Brown and all the debt is now off the books.0 -
May will try to write all of her demands of the EU into the manifesto thinking that it means they'll be forced to give in. It's completely reckless and designed to create division.0
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And to think Mike and I thought PB would be dominated by the French Presidential election this week.0
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It is called leadershipwilliamglenn said:May will try to write all of her demands of the EU into the manifesto thinking that it means they'll be forced to give in. It's completely reckless and designed to create division.
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Surprised about Tom Blenkinsop - he must know he has no chance. For a Labour MP he was one of the more sane.0
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Well if they run out of those...they have Hamas....Hezbollah...Press TV...Morning Star....Venezuela....then when they have run out of those, they can move onto ...McMao ..... then .... Seamus ..... then .... Abbott....jonny83 said:Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 5m5 minutes ago
May has gone for a seven week campaign. Governments well ahead normally keep it short. Just how many Corbyn/IRA stories do they have?
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Labour won't lose Luton North but Derby South is possible.rottenborough said:0 -
May can now be called a barefaced liar!0
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@Sean_Kemp: A one issue election where the Lib Dems are the only party with a clear position to go against the Tories. It's tough, but an opportunity.0
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Yes May's going to euthanise many a political career.SimonStClare said:
The first of many such announcements I suspect, moderate PLP must be relieved it’s all over.Slackbladder said:David Macmillan @bbcdmacmillan
Labour's @TomBlenkinsop announces he will not seek re-election as MP for Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland.0 -
I see the BBC is back to its habit of already repeating an announcement only made a few minutes ago.
Perhaps no-one is answering the phone at Labour HQ?0 -
Remember reading that Adam Boulton predicted that May would call for an early GE btw.0
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Blinking heck!
Gutted by this news - we just booked 2 weeks summer holiday in Italy starting on 7th June last night. I can get a postal vote of course, but this would have been one election all nighter I might have relished. I'll have to follow it all on my phone on PB on dodgy hotel wifi....
I really hope this doesnt backfire, but you can see why she's done it. I think the LDs will take southern England seats off the Tories - so can the Tories take any more off Labour than they managed in 2015, regardless of what the polls say?0 -
Leadership not grounded in reality is dangerous.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is called leadershipwilliamglenn said:May will try to write all of her demands of the EU into the manifesto thinking that it means they'll be forced to give in. It's completely reckless and designed to create division.
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One party State here we come - sad sad times for our democratic country.
Tories to win a majority of 152.0 -
Test
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Good point. Seems odd, unless something to do with FTPA stuff?jonny83 said:Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 5m5 minutes ago
May has gone for a seven week campaign. Governments well ahead normally keep it short. Just how many Corbyn/IRA stories do they have?0 -
Greens welcome election.0
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This is actually good news for Labour. If Jeremy Corbyn had another year in office, the Lib Dems might make serious inroads in Remain heartlands. But they're out of time and should now remain safely Labour.
The timing is dictated by the EU negotiations. Nothing will happen before June and after that date Britain can't spare two months from the negotiation timetable.0 -
@bbclaurak: labour will vote with govt tmrw to hold general election0
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labour will vote with govt tmrw to hold general election0
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LOL, total morons.Scott_P said:@bbclaurak: labour will vote with govt tmrw to hold general election
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You are sounding desperate there short straws....justin124 said:May can now be called a barefaced liar!
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Derby South is indeed well possible.AndyJS said:
Labour won't lose Luton North but Derby South is possible.rottenborough said:
Near me I think there are some seats which one would assume would be pretty much Labour forever there they aren't safe:
Don Valley, Rother Valley, even Bolsover...
NE Derbyshire out and out gonner.0 -
Woah! Looks like it's going to happen then!Scott_P said:@bbclaurak: labour will vote with govt tmrw to hold general election
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So far, LDs and Greens have welcomed the news. It will be hard for the liar narrative to gain traction, even if it is true. I think she will get away with this u-turn. It's not really going to anger enough people to be an issue.justin124 said:May can now be called a barefaced liar!
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Looks like May is a brilliant general.
Clausewitz's Principles of War
•Surprise
◦Attack when the enemy least suspects it
•Mass
◦Get there first with the most
•Objective
◦Choose an objective and stick with it
•Offensive
◦Seize the Initiative
•Manoeuver
◦Move to more advantageous positions
•Unity of Command
◦Place your entire force under the command of a single entity
•Security
◦Don't let the enemy rob you of your advantages
•Simplicity
◦Keep your plans clear and simple
•Economy of Force
◦Allocate your limited forces wisely
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It will be a Labour bloodbath in the Midlands, for certain.Bob__Sykes said:Blinking heck!
Gutted by this news - we just booked 2 weeks summer holiday in Italy starting on 7th June last night. I can get a postal vote of course, but this would have been one election all nighter I might have relished. I'll have to follow it all on my phone on PB on dodgy hotel wifi....
I really hope this doesnt backfire, but you can see why she's done it. I think the LDs will take southern England seats off the Tories - so can the Tories take any more off Labour than they managed in 2015, regardless of what the polls say?
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I'm disappointed May is handing Labour a lifeline.0
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Dont forget anti semitism and the Islamist linksjonny83 said:Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 5m5 minutes ago
May has gone for a seven week campaign. Governments well ahead normally keep it short. Just how many Corbyn/IRA stories do they have?
Brutal will be an understatement.0 -
Glad to see that despite tripe being discussed on the matter for years, it is simple to get around the FTPA.Scott_P said:@bbclaurak: labour will vote with govt tmrw to hold general election
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Paul Flynn in Newport W is another vulnerable left winger, although he might stand down.0
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You need to make sure you are in front of the telly when with tears streaming from his eyes Dimblebore announces the Tories take Bootle...Bob__Sykes said:Blinking heck!
Gutted by this news - we just booked 2 weeks summer holiday in Italy starting on 7th June last night. I can get a postal vote of course, but this would have been one election all nighter I might have relished. I'll have to follow it all on my phone on PB on dodgy hotel wifi....
I really hope this doesnt backfire, but you can see why she's done it. I think the LDs will take southern England seats off the Tories - so can the Tories take any more off Labour than they managed in 2015, regardless of what the polls say?0 -
The only thing Corbyn's done that I agree with.Scott_P said:0 -
Yes, right on both points.AlastairMeeks said:This is actually good news for Labour. If Jeremy Corbyn had another year in office, the Lib Dems might make serious inroads in Remain heartlands. But they're out of time and should now remain safely Labour.
The timing is dictated by the EU negotiations. Nothing will happen before June and after that date Britain can't spare two months from the negotiation timetable.0 -
What? GE day itself is the quietest day in the entire political cycle.TheScreamingEagles said:It's my girlfriend's birthday on June 8th.
#IHateTheresaMay0 -
Good news (?) for punters is the local elections will give some real data to compare with polling.
Cambridge to return to yellow from red should be a key battleground.0 -
Are you sure that the replacement (who?) will be any better?KentRising said:She has spared the Labour Party another three years of Corbyn etc. They should be thanking her.
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TheScreamingEagles said:
It's my girlfriend's birthday on June 8th.
#IHateTheresaMay
Are you still dating a Corbynista? Is so, could be a bit of a tricky evening !0 -
Well she's got more balls than Gordon Brown & he had Ed0
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Hopkins was one of the few Labour Eurosceptics and his constituency voted Leave. If the EU is seen as being of any importance at the election I can't see him losing.AndyJS said:
Labour won't lose Luton North but Derby South is possible.rottenborough said:0 -
You were accurate about this area in 2015 - what makes you so confident this time, beyond the opinion poll evidence that is?SouthamObserver said:
It will be a Labour bloodbath in the Midlands, for certain.Bob__Sykes said:Blinking heck!
Gutted by this news - we just booked 2 weeks summer holiday in Italy starting on 7th June last night. I can get a postal vote of course, but this would have been one election all nighter I might have relished. I'll have to follow it all on my phone on PB on dodgy hotel wifi....
I really hope this doesnt backfire, but you can see why she's done it. I think the LDs will take southern England seats off the Tories - so can the Tories take any more off Labour than they managed in 2015, regardless of what the polls say?0 -
On recent polls the only seats outside London that Labour will hold outside London south of the Severn and the Wash are Oxford East, Luton North and maybe Norwich South and Bristol West.0
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You do seem to be upset - its politicsjustin124 said:May can now be called a barefaced liar!
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Well a slightly shorter suicide note this time!Scott_P said:0 -
Also means that the EU can't use a 2020 GE as leverage for Brexit negotiations.
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I wonder how big the Remain/Leave split will figure in the election.
If it figures a lot, then my current seat (heavily Remain City of Chester) could be closer to a Labour win than my old seat (heavily Leave Ellesmere Port), despite the latter being much safer on paper.0 -
So, is Osborne standing?0
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The chance for the LDs is that this will be a 100% brexit election in a way that a 2020 would not. That favours parties with distinct positions on Brexit, and could help give the LDs momentum.AlastairMeeks said:This is actually good news for Labour. If Jeremy Corbyn had another year in office, the Lib Dems might make serious inroads in Remain heartlands. But they're out of time and should now remain safely Labour.
The timing is dictated by the EU negotiations. Nothing will happen before June and after that date Britain can't spare two months from the negotiation timetable.
They need to go for simple Norway soft brexit to have a chance of attracting a large chunk of the remainer vote though. Any Stop Brexit platform will have too small a pool of voters.0 -
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It would make sense to move the local elections to 8th June to avoid a low turnout caused by people having to vote twice in a few weeks.0
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I think Bristol is a place where Corbyn will do well.AlastairMeeks said:On recent polls the only seats outside London that Labour will hold outside London south of the Severn and the Wash are Oxford East, Luton North and maybe Norwich South and Bristol West.
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UKIP are having a small breakdown on social media. Lots of complaints about how many seats they have no candidates for. I can see them losing a fair bit of support to the Tories o June 8th.0
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Except when it's the EU leadership, then everything they do is ok in your eyeswilliamglenn said:
Leadership not grounded in reality is dangerous.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is called leadershipwilliamglenn said:May will try to write all of her demands of the EU into the manifesto thinking that it means they'll be forced to give in. It's completely reckless and designed to create division.
I would say this is the smart thing to do for several reasons - one of which is giving her a stronger position to get us brexit - which of course is why you are squealing like a stuck pig0 -
I'm not feeling confident about my charity bet with Mr Meeks on Gisela...0
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The LibDems will be polling above 20% quite soonFloater said:
Dont forget anti semitism and the Islamist linksjonny83 said:Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound 5m5 minutes ago
May has gone for a seven week campaign. Governments well ahead normally keep it short. Just how many Corbyn/IRA stories do they have?
Brutal will be an understatement.
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A May Corbyn debate?
I wonder...0 -
May's announcement was super weak as an explanation for her U-turn. None of her reasons, regarding the political game playing, were not true months ago.
I hope all those 'May has given her word and that's that' people will see how silly that attitude was though. It was always the case that if she thought it was worth it she would do it, and I thought she'd been sensible in deciding it was not.
If Labour vote for dissolution then fine, but if they have to go the no confidence route, manipulating the system for partisan advantage, then shame on May.0 -
People in the Midlands haven't forgotten the IRA attacks. With Corbyn's IRA sympathizing especially in the past and the papers reminding them a lot are not going to vote Labour. It's not the only reason but it's a factor.felix said:
You were accurate about this area in 2015 - what makes you so confident this time, beyond the opinion poll evidence that is?SouthamObserver said:
It will be a Labour bloodbath in the Midlands, for certain.Bob__Sykes said:Blinking heck!
Gutted by this news - we just booked 2 weeks summer holiday in Italy starting on 7th June last night. I can get a postal vote of course, but this would have been one election all nighter I might have relished. I'll have to follow it all on my phone on PB on dodgy hotel wifi....
I really hope this doesnt backfire, but you can see why she's done it. I think the LDs will take southern England seats off the Tories - so can the Tories take any more off Labour than they managed in 2015, regardless of what the polls say?0 -
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Him resigning would make my day.rottenborough said:So, is Osborne standing?
But the man in the white suit standing against him and winning would make my year....0 -
My heart bleeds.Richard_Tyndall said:UKIP are having a small breakdown on social media. Lots of complaints about how many seats they have no candidates for. I can see them losing a fair bit of support to the Tories o June 8th.
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+1. Nothing will occur until 23:00 so plenty of time for a decent meal out....Ishmael_Z said:
What? GE day itself is the quietest day in the entire political cycle.TheScreamingEagles said:It's my girlfriend's birthday on June 8th.
#IHateTheresaMay0 -
It's done - Labour is backing it too0
