politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Macron makes it to the final two then surely he’s the next
Comments
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Thank you - I hadn't appreciated that and it's extremely helpful to understand this.Chris_from_Paris said:On thread, regarding Macron's lack of a party base.
"Getting out the vote" is very different in France (from either US or UK) because canvassing is totally illegal.
The parties are only authorized to keep e-mail addresses and mobile numbers from members and people who volunteer their details online. Contacting them on the day of voting (or at any time after Friday 11.59 pm) is considered campaigning and is forbidden. Offering lifts to the polling station is tolerated as long as it is not explicitly linked to a given candidate and if it is arranged beforehand.
Late campaigning is a very frequent cause for the cancellation of local elections.0 -
Dr. Foxinsox, has any candidate engraved eight asinine pledges on an 8' 6" block of Camembert?
Mr. Paris, cheers for that post.0 -
Alternatively, the quickest, cleanest and lowest cost solution may be found in a trade off with the UK government during negotiations.TheScreamingEagles said:
In the world of Chestnut there's no such thing as novation.0 -
Experience tells me a contract of such length might have a break clause for either side.Alanbrooke said:
Impossible Eagles - you liar.
The landlord will not settle, he will need to hang on to every penny.
Brexit will cause all of London to collapse, all London properties will stand empty for decades, there will be no demand for property, all the bankers will be in Luxemburg etc ....
Or maybe a force majeure bit to do with Brexit.0 -
Exactly right. There is a very active secondary market in assigning leases and/or subletting them. Assume the EU wanted to leave next year, they would contact one of the big commercial estate agents, and get them to market the lease. They might even make a profit on the sale. (Although high end London commercial is relatively weak right now, so in all likelihood they would end up down a few million.)david_herdson said:
They could always sell the lease. Isn't that how these things usually work?chestnut said:The EU's negotiating position is that the costs of divorce and settlement need to be agreed.
This property has a 25 year lease on it until 2040, cumulative cost around 300m.
Using their preferred division of responsibility, they owe around 85% of the 300m bill on a property this almost certainly wish to vacate.
That leaves them with a problem. Honouring obligations and not cherry picking cuts both ways.0 -
I don't really understand what you're saying here - i think you're conflating a few different issues.chestnut said:
Yes I know, you start with a €300m/€60bn 'exit' bill, negotiate a settlement and walk away with little real fuss having paid considerably less.rkrkrk said:
I think Alastair is suggesting that the EU will offer a payment to cancel the contract early.chestnut said:
So, they walk away from rental obligations? What's good for the goose..AlastairMeeks said:<
If they need to, they'll negotiate with the landlord and cut a deal. If you think that will be anywhere near 300m, you're living in cloud cuckoo land.
Oh, you're a Leaver. Carry on.
As long as both parties agree it's no problem surely?
They may also prefer a negotiated arrangement where they pay absolutely nothing on London property in return for an obligations swap with the UK on leases across the existing EU0 -
"EMA will occupy the promenade, ground and the first nine office floors in the 20 storey building. The agreed rent is £46.50 per square foot commencing 1 January 2015 with five yearly upwards-only rent reviews. The length of the lease is 25 years with no breaks and EMA has options to take an additional four floors of around 27,500 square feet each."TheScreamingEagles said:
Experience tells me a contract of such length might have a break clause for either side.Alanbrooke said:
Impossible Eagles - you liar.
The landlord will not settle, he will need to hang on to every penny.
Brexit will cause all of London to collapse, all London properties will stand empty for decades, there will be no demand for property, all the bankers will be in Luxemburg etc ....
Or maybe a force majeure bit to do with Brexit.0 -
Indeed. Another start to a working week, another car crash from Corbyn. You can set your watch by it.FrancisUrquhart said:Another successful interview resulting in positive headlines....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/18/jeremy-corbyn-says-cant-name-one-mistake-made-have-many-reveals/0 -
Really important information - thanks.Chris_from_Paris said:On thread, regarding Macron's lack of a party base.
"Getting out the vote" is very different in France (from either US or UK) because canvassing is totally illegal.
The parties are only authorized to keep e-mail addresses and mobile numbers from members and people who volunteer their details online. Contacting them on the day of voting (or at any time after Friday 11.59 pm) is considered campaigning and is forbidden. Offering lifts to the polling station is tolerated as long as it is not explicitly linked to a given candidate and if it is arranged beforehand.
Late campaigning is a very frequent cause for the cancellation of local elections.
The success of my position on this market seems to be directly correlated to the frequency of your posts!0 -
irrelevantTheScreamingEagles said:
Experience tells me a contract of such length might have a break clause for either side.Alanbrooke said:
Impossible Eagles - you liar.
The landlord will not settle, he will need to hang on to every penny.
Brexit will cause all of London to collapse, all London properties will stand empty for decades, there will be no demand for property, all the bankers will be in Luxemburg etc ....
Or maybe a force majeure bit to do with Brexit.
you have been telling us we're DOOMED for ages, DOOOOOMED !
or was it all maybe just bollocks ?0 -
If you think that's the entirety of the contract, then there's no point continuing this debate further.chestnut said:
"EMA will occupy the promenade, ground and the first nine office floors in the 20 storey building. The agreed rent is £46.50 per square foot commencing 1 January 2015 with five yearly upwards-only rent reviews. The length of the lease is 25 years with no breaks and EMA has options to take an additional four floors of around 27,500 square feet each."TheScreamingEagles said:
Experience tells me a contract of such length might have a break clause for either side.Alanbrooke said:
Impossible Eagles - you liar.
The landlord will not settle, he will need to hang on to every penny.
Brexit will cause all of London to collapse, all London properties will stand empty for decades, there will be no demand for property, all the bankers will be in Luxemburg etc ....
Or maybe a force majeure bit to do with Brexit.0 -
Which makes the high French turnouts even more impressive.Chris_from_Paris said:On thread, regarding Macron's lack of a party base.
"Getting out the vote" is very different in France (from either US or UK) because canvassing is totally illegal.
The parties are only authorized to keep e-mail addresses and mobile numbers from members and people who volunteer their details online. Contacting them on the day of voting (or at any time after Friday 11.59 pm) is considered campaigning and is forbidden. Offering lifts to the polling station is tolerated as long as it is not explicitly linked to a given candidate and if it is arranged beforehand.
Late campaigning is a very frequent cause for the cancellation of local elections.
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This is my view, it has not changed, it has merely been reinforced.Alanbrooke said:
irrelevantTheScreamingEagles said:
Experience tells me a contract of such length might have a break clause for either side.Alanbrooke said:
Impossible Eagles - you liar.
The landlord will not settle, he will need to hang on to every penny.
Brexit will cause all of London to collapse, all London properties will stand empty for decades, there will be no demand for property, all the bankers will be in Luxemburg etc ....
Or maybe a force majeure bit to do with Brexit.
you have been telling us we're DOOMED for ages, DOOOOOMED !
or was it all maybe just bollocks ?
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/04/19/vote-leave-sets-out-its-objective-tse-gives-his-robust-interpretation/0 -
What does the EMA/Canary Wharf contract have to do with anything though ?TheScreamingEagles said:
If you think that's the entirety of the contract, then there's no point continuing this debate further.chestnut said:
"EMA will occupy the promenade, ground and the first nine office floors in the 20 storey building. The agreed rent is £46.50 per square foot commencing 1 January 2015 with five yearly upwards-only rent reviews. The length of the lease is 25 years with no breaks and EMA has options to take an additional four floors of around 27,500 square feet each."TheScreamingEagles said:
Experience tells me a contract of such length might have a break clause for either side.Alanbrooke said:
Impossible Eagles - you liar.
The landlord will not settle, he will need to hang on to every penny.
Brexit will cause all of London to collapse, all London properties will stand empty for decades, there will be no demand for property, all the bankers will be in Luxemburg etc ....
Or maybe a force majeure bit to do with Brexit.
Even if it is €300m, that hardly scratches the EU's €13.7t GDP ?0 -
Mainly that the EU is probably going to ask us to meet our share of the cost on property leases over in Europe as part of the €60bn exit bill if they are going to be as obstinate as they are often characterised. I would hope not.rkrkrk said:
I don't really understand what you're saying here - i think you're conflating a few different issues.chestnut said:
Yes I know, you start with a €300m/€60bn 'exit' bill, negotiate a settlement and walk away with little real fuss having paid considerably less.rkrkrk said:
I think Alastair is suggesting that the EU will offer a payment to cancel the contract early.chestnut said:
So, they walk away from rental obligations? What's good for the goose..AlastairMeeks said:<
If they need to, they'll negotiate with the landlord and cut a deal. If you think that will be anywhere near 300m, you're living in cloud cuckoo land.
Oh, you're a Leaver. Carry on.
As long as both parties agree it's no problem surely?
They may also prefer a negotiated arrangement where they pay absolutely nothing on London property in return for an obligations swap with the UK on leases across the existing EU
Presumably, our government would respond in the way that Alistair, TSE etc are suggesting to such a request by the EU.0 -
The lease will be registered so if anyone really wants to know they can always download a copy from the Land Registry.TheScreamingEagles said:
Experience tells me a contract of such length might have a break clause for either side.Alanbrooke said:
Impossible Eagles - you liar.
The landlord will not settle, he will need to hang on to every penny.
Brexit will cause all of London to collapse, all London properties will stand empty for decades, there will be no demand for property, all the bankers will be in Luxemburg etc ....
Or maybe a force majeure bit to do with Brexit.0 -
David Herdson did an excellent piece two or three weeks ago where he argued that betting on Le Pen, at her current price then of around 4.3, was a poor bet, because if she progressed to the second round and faced Macron, her odds could well go out, even though she qualified for the runoff.
Surely the same logic would apply now to Fillon if he were to manage to get to the final and faced Macron. In fact even more so, as Macron beats Fillon even more convincingly in the head to heads than he beats Le Pen.
What odds would we expect Fillon to be in a final against Macron?0 -
well it;s a conventional viewTheScreamingEagles said:
This is my view, it has not changed, it has merely been reinforced.Alanbrooke said:
irrelevantTheScreamingEagles said:
Experience tells me a contract of such length might have a break clause for either side.Alanbrooke said:
Impossible Eagles - you liar.
The landlord will not settle, he will need to hang on to every penny.
Brexit will cause all of London to collapse, all London properties will stand empty for decades, there will be no demand for property, all the bankers will be in Luxemburg etc ....
Or maybe a force majeure bit to do with Brexit.
you have been telling us we're DOOMED for ages, DOOOOOMED !
or was it all maybe just bollocks ?
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/04/19/vote-leave-sets-out-its-objective-tse-gives-his-robust-interpretation/
but us leavers have been cutting deals down the dockside for the last 2 years0 -
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What was it Dave said about too many tweets?
Brexit Department Faces Ridicule After Tweets Showing How EU Membership Boosts British Trade
http://tinyurl.com/LeaversHaveLowerIQsFact0 -
Well you would say that wouldn't you.FF43 said:
The complete change is that we are now going out of the EU and have therefore lost most of our influence, traded away for notional sovereignty, but leaving us with less say over our destiny than before. If you think we had no influence in the first place, you are wrong, but hardly alone in thinking that.another_richard said:
And the EU will have to pay the lease.FF43 said:To be (slightly) fair to the Minister for Brexit, his suggestion is to use the location of these EU bodies as a bargaining chip. In exchange for Britain graciously allowing the agencies to move, the EU will provide a juicy Brexit deal. In reality, of course, the EU will totally ignore Mr Davis.
Scott_P said:Did I miss the whole "Minister for Brexit doesn't understand Brexit means Brexit" discussion?
https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/853961459591720960
The 'argue about everything' strategy is certainly worth trying after the complete failure of Blair's 'say yes to whatever the French want' and Cameron's 'bluster, surrender, lie' strategies.
The "argue about everything" strategy just wastes time if you want Brexit to look anything like "success".
It sounds like you're afraid that playing hardball for once might actually be more successful than the usual grovel to Brussels.
Its ironic that if Blair or Cameron had ever stood up to the EU we wouldn't have chosen to leave.
But they didn't and we did.
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I haven't mentioned anything about the entirety of the contract, merely the general detail of duration, cost and no breaks.TheScreamingEagles said:
If you think that's the entirety of the contract, then there's no point continuing this debate further.chestnut said:
"EMA will occupy the promenade, ground and the first nine office floors in the 20 storey building. The agreed rent is £46.50 per square foot commencing 1 January 2015 with five yearly upwards-only rent reviews. The length of the lease is 25 years with no breaks and EMA has options to take an additional four floors of around 27,500 square feet each."TheScreamingEagles said:
Experience tells me a contract of such length might have a break clause for either side.Alanbrooke said:
Impossible Eagles - you liar.
The landlord will not settle, he will need to hang on to every penny.
Brexit will cause all of London to collapse, all London properties will stand empty for decades, there will be no demand for property, all the bankers will be in Luxemburg etc ....
Or maybe a force majeure bit to do with Brexit.
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What a silly suggestion Mr D - you would need to use a hard cheese for such purposes - Camembert is totally unsuitable.Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxinsox, has any candidate engraved eight asinine pledges on an 8' 6" block of Camembert?
Mr. Paris, cheers for that post.0 -
If there's no break clause there must be a wide alienation clause, otherwise the effect on rent review would be considerable.chestnut said:
I haven't mentioned anything about the entirety of the contract, merely the general detail of duration, cost and no breaks.TheScreamingEagles said:
If you think that's the entirety of the contract, then there's no point continuing this debate further.chestnut said:
"EMA will occupy the promenade, ground and the first nine office floors in the 20 storey building. The agreed rent is £46.50 per square foot commencing 1 January 2015 with five yearly upwards-only rent reviews. The length of the lease is 25 years with no breaks and EMA has options to take an additional four floors of around 27,500 square feet each."TheScreamingEagles said:
Experience tells me a contract of such length might have a break clause for either side.Alanbrooke said:
Impossible Eagles - you liar.
The landlord will not settle, he will need to hang on to every penny.
Brexit will cause all of London to collapse, all London properties will stand empty for decades, there will be no demand for property, all the bankers will be in Luxemburg etc ....
Or maybe a force majeure bit to do with Brexit.
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Mr. Rentool, my knowledge of cheese is minimal.
I do quite like using it in writing, though. Cheese was one of the staples for the medieval poor. When wealthier types started liking it more in the Elizabethan era, it caused some problems for the poor as one of their main foods starting rising in price.0 -
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LeaversHaveLowerIQs&SmellyPantsFact surely?TheScreamingEagles said:What was it Dave said about too many tweets?
Brexit Department Faces Ridicule After Tweets Showing How EU Membership Boosts British Trade
http://tinyurl.com/LeaversHaveLowerIQsFact0 -
Thanks! My own position has been all green on the big four for a while.rkrkrk said:
Really important information - thanks.Chris_from_Paris said:On thread, regarding Macron's lack of a party base.
"Getting out the vote" is very different in France (from either US or UK) because canvassing is totally illegal.
The parties are only authorized to keep e-mail addresses and mobile numbers from members and people who volunteer their details online. Contacting them on the day of voting (or at any time after Friday 11.59 pm) is considered campaigning and is forbidden. Offering lifts to the polling station is tolerated as long as it is not explicitly linked to a given candidate and if it is arranged beforehand.
Late campaigning is a very frequent cause for the cancellation of local elections.
The success of my position on this market seems to be directly correlated to the frequency of your posts!
My worst gain would be Le Pen as I think she has no real chance. It's basically pure hedging against a black swan scenario (e.g. a major terror event in the next two weeks - actually a clear possibility according to security sources).
My best gain would be with Fillon because of the great position I built during the primary.
I am terribly tempted to bet more on my favorite candidate and unbalance my position but I have been able to resist the urge so far!
Anyway after a tense first round, the second round betting should be free money (as it was in 2007 and 2012).0 -
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There's a limit on the number of characters I can use at tinyurl.Theuniondivvie said:LeaversHaveLowerIQs&SmellyPantsFact
LeaversHaveLowerIQs&SmellyPantsFact surely?TheScreamingEagles said:What was it Dave said about too many tweets?
Brexit Department Faces Ridicule After Tweets Showing How EU Membership Boosts British Trade
http://tinyurl.com/LeaversHaveLowerIQsFact
Tinyurl is where the Brexit and cultural war is being fought after all, it does trigger some Leavers after all.0 -
Perhaps she's finally seen sense and is making way for George Osborne as PM.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Early general election?Scott_P said:0 -
@bbclaurak: Watch election rumour mill go crazy.... has May decided to go for it?0
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Saw those 21% leads and though the only way is down from here.Scott_P said:@bbclaurak: Watch election rumour mill go crazy.... has May decided to go for it?
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Ooer.......0
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We're invading SpainFrancisUrquhart said:
Early general election?Scott_P said:0 -
Mr Dancer. I wouldn't say it was wrong to leave the EU. And I don't think time is likely to tell, but instead we will stick to our fixed positions till Kingdom come.Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. 43, losing influence for nothing reminds me of Brown ignoring a manifesto pledge to sign away vetoes in Lisbon.
Time will tell whether we were right to vote to leave.
I would say however that leaving the EU is a disconnection for the UK. If we just say "no" to everything and willingly isolate ourselves, the gained sovereignty is real. There is a contradiction between a "global Britain" open to the world and Brexit, where the loss of influence is a big issue. As we are definitively leaving the EU, we will have to resolve that contradiction if Brexit is going to look anything like a "success" in those terms.
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I was in that happy all green position. And then got greedy and thought i could profit big from Fillon dropping out. +50 Macron, -35 Le Pen, +10 Fillon and +15 Melanchon. Roughly.Chris_from_Paris said:
Thanks! My own position has been all green on the big four for a while.rkrkrk said:
Really important information - thanks.Chris_from_Paris said:On thread, regarding Macron's lack of a party base.
"Getting out the vote" is very different in France (from either US or UK) because canvassing is totally illegal.
The parties are only authorized to keep e-mail addresses and mobile numbers from members and people who volunteer their details online. Contacting them on the day of voting (or at any time after Friday 11.59 pm) is considered campaigning and is forbidden. Offering lifts to the polling station is tolerated as long as it is not explicitly linked to a given candidate and if it is arranged beforehand.
Late campaigning is a very frequent cause for the cancellation of local elections.
The success of my position on this market seems to be directly correlated to the frequency of your posts!
My worst gain would be Le Pen as I think she has no real chance. It's basically pure hedging against a black swan scenario (e.g. a major terror event in the next two weeks - actually a clear possibility according to security sources).
My best gain would be with Fillon because of the great position I built during the primary.
I am terribly tempted to bet more on my favorite candidate and unbalance my position but I have been able to resist the urge so far!
Anyway after a tense first round, the second round betting should be free money (as it was in 2007 and 2012).
I still feel Le Pen should be longer than she is... But personal limit of -50 on any candidate because i don't want to lose too much!0 -
The EU does NOT have a GDP. The countries of the EU have individual GDPs which may well amount to €13tn but that is their GDPs. There is no country called EU (yet!).Pulpstar said:
What does the EMA/Canary Wharf contract have to do with anything though ?
Even if it is €300m, that hardly scratches the EU's €13.7t GDP ?
The EU has a series of membership fees and other payments which give it €143bn to spend or about 1% of the GDPs of the member economies.0 -
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She's such a disappointment, a decent British PM would be invading France.Alanbrooke said:
We're invading SpainFrancisUrquhart said:
Early general election?Scott_P said:0 -
£46.50 is actually quite a good price considering the office. I would be staggered if they couldn't novate at more than £40/square foot.chestnut said:
"EMA will occupy the promenade, ground and the first nine office floors in the 20 storey building. The agreed rent is £46.50 per square foot commencing 1 January 2015 with five yearly upwards-only rent reviews. The length of the lease is 25 years with no breaks and EMA has options to take an additional four floors of around 27,500 square feet each."TheScreamingEagles said:
Experience tells me a contract of such length might have a break clause for either side.Alanbrooke said:
Impossible Eagles - you liar.
The landlord will not settle, he will need to hang on to every penny.
Brexit will cause all of London to collapse, all London properties will stand empty for decades, there will be no demand for property, all the bankers will be in Luxemburg etc ....
Or maybe a force majeure bit to do with Brexit.0 -
21% poll leads, labour led by a moron, lib dems led by a bloke nobody has heard of & UKip led by walter Mitty...It ain't going to get easier than that.0
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You can hardly expect a hardline, arch-Leaver like Mr Dancer to keep up with forrin cheeses. He would likely use English Cheddar - its nice, hard, plastic like consistency would make it ideal for engraving.SandyRentool said:
What a silly suggestion Mr D - you would need to use a hard cheese for such purposes - Camembert is totally unsuitable.Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxinsox, has any candidate engraved eight asinine pledges on an 8' 6" block of Camembert?
Mr. Paris, cheers for that post.
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I wonder if the CPS have been in touch and that might explain Mrs May's announcement0
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"Most serious" - so not Sindyref 2 then.FrancisUrquhart said:
Early general election?Scott_P said:0 -
I was looking at that one the other day, Hamilton was evens and Vettel 6/4 - yet even at this early stage it seems implausible that one or other of them won't be the champion.Morris_Dancer said:F1: hmm. I don't have the money to do this, but Hamilton and Vettel have title prices on Betfair of 1.94 and 2.5.
So, if you've got a stack of cash and don't believe anyone else will stand a chance (worth remembering we're in early days) you could back both and finish ahead if either wins.0 -
I hope she is resigning on the grounds that she is annoying and boring. #priti4pm0
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Mrs C, Red Leicester, actually.
My second favourite cheese (although I don't have it often) is Edam.
On May's statement: she's decided to resolve the French election by imposing the terms of the Treaty of Troyes.0 -
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I've panic cashed out of my no general election bet this year.TheScreamingEagles said:I wonder if the CPS have been in touch and that might explain Mrs May's announcement
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Mr. Sandpit, that's my assessment too.
The only way someone else wins if is Red Bull have the greatest development success there's perhaps ever been. But, in that case, you can back them for the Constructors' at 41 or so.
However, the margin of profit is tight and the timescale is quite long.0 -
Theresa May has looked at all the complexities of leaving the EU and has decided that it's just too difficult.
Brexit means Bricks It.0 -
I don't think it'll be an early election, because how does she satisfy/circumvent the FTPA?
#MySionSimonMoment0 -
I was with you until the hashtag!Dura_Ace said:I hope she is resigning on the grounds that she is annoying and boring. #priti4pm
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Surprised we have not had the frothers wetting their pants on speculation on what baloney May will come out with at 11:15. No doubt trying to get some reflected glory by saying she will help Trump press the big red button0
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It won't be an early election, not least because of the timing. You don't make that call in the middle of a different election period unless there's something huge to bounce off the back of.TheScreamingEagles said:I don't think it'll be an early election, because how does she satisfy/circumvent the FTPA?
That said, she could, if she was so minded, put down a Dissolution motion and dare Labour to vote it down. Corbyn has previously said that he'd support it, though politics has a funny way of enabling its practitioners to fashion principles out of self-preservation.0 -
I'll be down £250 if she calls an early election as a starter for ten !TheScreamingEagles said:I don't think it'll be an early election, because how does she satisfy/circumvent the FTPA?
#MySionSimonMoment
So I'll immediately have to plough a grand into Tory majority to win it back
#Winningheresortof0 -
Is Bolton connected these days? During Blair's time obviously he had the inside track on everything, but nowadays does he?ThreeQuidder said:0 -
Can't be going on health grounds as Dan Hodges made this actual prediction only a few days ago.ThreeQuidder said:0 -
Every time Old Iron Pubes looks like she might be on the verge of doing something interesting or entertaining, she doesn't. I don't think it'll be any different this time. #pritiwoman0
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Right now would probably be the worst point for her to resign.AlastairMeeks said:Theresa May has looked at all the complexities of leaving the EU and has decided that it's just too difficult.
Brexit means Bricks It.
It can't be that surely unless it's something very serious health wise.0 -
She’s going to attack N Korea.TheScreamingEagles said:I don't think it'll be an early election, because how does she satisfy/circumvent the FTPA?
#MySionSimonMoment0 -
I wonder if the Tories would actually have a leadership contest this time, if she's resigning.0
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Hammond available at 9.6 on BF0
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I hope it is nothing Royal related.0
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Announcement on The new royal yacht?TOPPING said:I hope it is nothing Royal related.
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Sadly no chance, he's pissed off the Hard Brexiteers, coupled with a bad received first budget.rottenborough said:Hammond available at 9.6 on BF
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"What do we want?"Artist said:I wonder if the Tories would actually have a leadership contest this time, if she's resigning.
"Leadsom for..."0 -
Mimolette, I think in this case. Though it does resemble a cannon ball rather more than a gravestone.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Rentool, my knowledge of cheese is minimal.
I do quite like using it in writing, though. Cheese was one of the staples for the medieval poor. When wealthier types started liking it more in the Elizabethan era, it caused some problems for the poor as one of their main foods starting rising in price.0 -
Mike's busy this morning, so yours truly will be covering Theresa May's statement.
We all know nothing major happens when Mike's busy and I'm in charge.0 -
Just got £10/£15 laying a 2017 General Election...0
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I am sure Osborne could find room in his schedule for job #7....TheScreamingEagles said:
Sadly no chance, he's pissed off the Hard Brexiteers, coupled with a bad received first budget.rottenborough said:Hammond available at 9.6 on BF
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I'm not even sure he'd want the job.TheScreamingEagles said:
Sadly no chance, he's pissed off the Hard Brexiteers, coupled with a bad received first budget.rottenborough said:Hammond available at 9.6 on BF
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What were you saying about mike and UK holidays the other day? They are the safe ones were nothing major happens right?TheScreamingEagles said:Mike's busy this morning, so yours truly will be covering Theresa May's statement.
We all know nothing major happens when Mike's busy and I'm in charge.0 -
Sunning myself in Crete whilst desperately following twitter...perhaps its royal related?0
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I think that she is going to announce she has sold the whole country to France and furthermore that she has done this with the specific and sole aim of annoying TSE.TheScreamingEagles said:Mike's busy this morning, so yours truly will be covering Theresa May's statement.
We all know nothing major happens when Mike's busy and I'm in charge.0 -
I'm going royal family.0
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Election announcement seems unlikely to me. Timing is off. She's got no new information to justify a U-Turn.
Health grounds resignation is certainly possible, but it would have to be something sudden and serious if so, so let's hope it's not that.
Perhaps it's something on Syria? Maybe we are upping our involvement? Or N Korea related.
Maybe she's just messing with us, and she's going to announce they will be redoing the wallpaper in Downing Street.0 -
Against Macron, I'd expect Fillon to be quite heavily odds-against, maybe as much as 5/1. But his overall odds should be a little shorter than that given how close the first round now is and the twin potential issues Macron has in not having an established party network and in his soft voter base. If we could end up with a Fillon-Le Pen then he'd suddenly be odds-on, though not by a great deal. The less likely (but not inconceivable) 2nd round head-to-head of Fillon-Melenchon doesn't see him do much better than against Macron, which is itself indicative of how toxic he now is.BudG said:David Herdson did an excellent piece two or three weeks ago where he argued that betting on Le Pen, at her current price then of around 4.3, was a poor bet, because if she progressed to the second round and faced Macron, her odds could well go out, even though she qualified for the runoff.
Surely the same logic would apply now to Fillon if he were to manage to get to the final and faced Macron. In fact even more so, as Macron beats Fillon even more convincingly in the head to heads than he beats Le Pen.
What odds would we expect Fillon to be in a final against Macron?0 -
His holiday finished yesterday.FrancisUrquhart said:
What were you saying about mike and UK holidays the other day? They are the safe ones were nothing major happens right?TheScreamingEagles said:Mike's busy this morning, so yours truly will be covering Theresa May's statement.
We all know nothing major happens when Mike's busy and I'm in charge.0 -
Do you mean like a death in the family? I thought the official processes meant the BBC would always report that first?TOPPING said:I hope it is nothing Royal related.
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It is a bit of a hospital pass at this juncture. The PM will have to solve the Gordian brain tumour of Brexit and Labour are one Corbyn heart attack away from electoral relevance.Pong said:
I'm not even sure he'd want the job.TheScreamingEagles said:
Sadly no chance, he's pissed off the Hard Brexiteers, coupled with a bad received first budget.rottenborough said:Hammond available at 9.6 on BF
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Where's that article from the guardian about what happens when the Queen dies?0
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It could be anything or it could be nothing very much. But I don't think it will be an election announcement. The nature of the FTPA blockage is that you would need to build up a head of steam for that and it wouldn't be initiated by a grand announcement.
I have an hour to be proved wrong ...
PS There could also be a ministerial resignation, so this announcement is of a mini-reshuffle and an attempt to indicate the ship is still on track
PPS If it is a ministerial resignation, I am plumping for Johnson, who doesn't look at all happy at the moment.0 -
I can't see it being abdication either as I would have thought that would be announced in Parliament first.Paristonda said:
Do you mean like a death in the family? I thought the official processes meant the BBC would always report that first?TOPPING said:I hope it is nothing Royal related.
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Return to Home Rule for NI sounds quite likely, if boring.0
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Not sure of protocol for non-HMQ members.Paristonda said:
Do you mean like a death in the family? I thought the official processes meant the BBC would always report that first?TOPPING said:I hope it is nothing Royal related.
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LOL,Pong said:
I'm not even sure he'd want the job.TheScreamingEagles said:
Sadly no chance, he's pissed off the Hard Brexiteers, coupled with a bad received first budget.rottenborough said:Hammond available at 9.6 on BF
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