John RentoulVerified account @JohnRentoul 6m6 minutes ago More Replying to @carlgardner She could announce she's tabling a motion of no-confidence in her own Govt.
David Herdson did an excellent piece two or three weeks ago where he argued that betting on Le Pen, at her current price then of around 4.3, was a poor bet, because if she progressed to the second round and faced Macron, her odds could well go out, even though she qualified for the runoff.
Surely the same logic would apply now to Fillon if he were to manage to get to the final and faced Macron. In fact even more so, as Macron beats Fillon even more convincingly in the head to heads than he beats Le Pen.
What odds would we expect Fillon to be in a final against Macron?
Against Macron, I'd expect Fillon to be quite heavily odds-against, maybe as much as 5/1. But his overall odds should be a little shorter than that given how close the first round now is and the twin potential issues Macron has in not having an established party network and in his soft voter base. If we could end up with a Fillon-Le Pen then he'd suddenly be odds-on, though not by a great deal. The less likely (but not inconceivable) 2nd round head-to-head of Fillon-Melenchon doesn't see him do much better than against Macron, which is itself indicative of how toxic he now is.
So if you are currently betting on Fillon at 4.2, you are also betting on Le Pen going through with him.
DofE dead (as its not Brenda) May resigning NI Direct Rule Early GE Major Terror Attack stopped War with North Korea She's going to be the new Doctor Who Osborne to be the new Archbishop of Canterbury
I think all previous members of the RF have received a BBC news announcement. I can't see that changing now, if the Q mother and others were announced by the BBC
I think all previous members of the RF have received a BBC news announcement. I can't see that changing now, if the Q mother and others were announced by the BBC
didn't the guardian go through all this a few weeks ago? special music on radio etc etc
I've just switched on BBC News 24 to see what the BBC is speculating about the Downing St announcement only to find a discussion about vaginal mesh implants.
TUD, given how crap they are I would say they have struck it lucky big time.
It's be funny if SLab did their 'vote us stop Indy Ref II' spiel, only for Tessy to announce acceptance of the principle of Indy Ref II 15 minutes later. Mind you, that would be the SCons single cooncil election policy stuffed too.
TUD, given how crap they are I would say they have struck it lucky big time.
It's be funny if SLab did their 'vote us stop Indy Ref II' spiel, only for Tessy to announce acceptance of the principle of Indy Ref II 15 minutes later. Mind you, that would be the SCons single cooncil election policy stuffed too.
Will Ruthie come out of hiding before the cooncil elections. Maybe Tessie is going to announce Ruthie as her new advisor.
Earliest possible election date would be June 1st I think.
Depends on how quickly they wrap things up. 1. "There shall be an early GE" motion introduced this afternoon with a 10pm guillotine. 2. Wrap up bills this week 3. Parliament prorogued Monday 24th April 4. FTPA dictates election is 17 working days later, which is Thursday 18th May
Even if she could, how woud we, the voting public, take to be called to the polls two or three weeks after the locals/mayorals and what not, and less that a year after the referendum.
" Downing Street have had almost an hour now to discourage journalists from speculating about an early election. They are not doing that, which increases the chances that it will be an election announcement."
Evens: meaningless bollocks about some shit hole like Syria, North Korea or Norn Iron.
2/1: dead royal, maybe Phil the Greek
10/1: Early election. Hands off cocks, on with socks, lads.
20/1: Resigning due to ill health. Let's hope it's nothing trivial.
Dura, Too far on your 20/1, wishing ill health on anyone no matter the circumstances / who they are is bad patter.
Quite right. Apart from anything else Diabetes Type 1 is bad enough.
Interesting piece on diabetes from Sweden in the NEJM. The focus there on the condition has brought real improvement. I suspect there has been similar improvement here, albeit less marked.
" Downing Street have had almost an hour now to discourage journalists from speculating about an early election. They are not doing that, which increases the chances that it will be an election announcement."
Unless she is living up to poundshop Gordon brown nickname.
Guardian says that Buckingham Palace has confirmed that the Queen is currently resident at Windsor Castle, Which suggests that unless there’s been unusual activity there it’s not RF-related. And if it was the DoE there would be an announcement from there, sureklt.
Evens: meaningless bollocks about some shit hole like Syria, North Korea or Norn Iron.
2/1: dead royal, maybe Phil the Greek
10/1: Early election. Hands off cocks, on with socks, lads.
20/1: Resigning due to ill health. Let's hope it's nothing trivial.
Dura, Too far on your 20/1, wishing ill health on anyone no matter the circumstances / who they are is bad patter.
Quite right. Apart from anything else Diabetes Type 1 is bad enough.
Interesting piece on diabetes from Sweden in the NEJM. The focus there on the condition has brought real improvement. I suspect there has been similar improvement here, albeit less marked.
Type 2 is potentially completely reservable. There is major research on-going at Newcastle. Extreme diet can reverse it, although only small trials to date.
if it's a general election it's time to start stockpiling the popcorn supplies
A "snap" election would be a convenient way to get around those pesky TV debates as well as I bet "negotiations" with TV execs and Parties on the format haven't even started yet.
Guardian says that Buckingham Palace has confirmed that the Queen is currently resident at Windsor Castle, Which suggests that unless there’s been unusual activity there it’s not RF-related. And if it was the DoE there would be an announcement from there, sureklt.
If she's at windsor then probably not a GE as she would need to be at buck house?
Although the same for a resignation would apply as well.
I just don't see the early election being a runner - the timing is daft. Surely you wait a mere 3 weeks until the local results to confirm the polling in the results?
Evens: meaningless bollocks about some shit hole like Syria, North Korea or Norn Iron.
2/1: dead royal, maybe Phil the Greek
10/1: Early election. Hands off cocks, on with socks, lads.
20/1: Resigning due to ill health. Let's hope it's nothing trivial.
Dura, Too far on your 20/1, wishing ill health on anyone no matter the circumstances / who they are is bad patter.
Quite right. Apart from anything else Diabetes Type 1 is bad enough.
Interesting piece on diabetes from Sweden in the NEJM. The focus there on the condition has brought real improvement. I suspect there has been similar improvement here, albeit less marked.
Type 2 is potentially completely reservable. There is major research on-going at Newcastle. Extreme diet can reverse it, although only small trials to date.
Yes, but Prof Taylor has a much bigger study underway with Diabetes UK. Quite serious work, but 800 calories a day for 8 weeks is hard work.
Evens: meaningless bollocks about some shit hole like Syria, North Korea or Norn Iron.
2/1: dead royal, maybe Phil the Greek
10/1: Early election. Hands off cocks, on with socks, lads.
20/1: Resigning due to ill health. Let's hope it's nothing trivial.
Dura, Too far on your 20/1, wishing ill health on anyone no matter the circumstances / who they are is bad patter.
Quite right. Apart from anything else Diabetes Type 1 is bad enough.
Interesting piece on diabetes from Sweden in the NEJM. The focus there on the condition has brought real improvement. I suspect there has been similar improvement here, albeit less marked.
Type 2 is potentially completely reservable. There is major research on-going at Newcastle. Extreme diet can reverse it, although only small trials to date.
The focus re Type 1 is on making it more manageable, including small implants that read off your current blood sugar level (very nifty - and shortly they'll be connectable to an app) and pumps, particularly among people whose routine is less structured, e.g. the young.
Evens: meaningless bollocks about some shit hole like Syria, North Korea or Norn Iron.
2/1: dead royal, maybe Phil the Greek
10/1: Early election. Hands off cocks, on with socks, lads.
20/1: Resigning due to ill health. Let's hope it's nothing trivial.
Dura, Too far on your 20/1, wishing ill health on anyone no matter the circumstances / who they are is bad patter.
Quite right. Apart from anything else Diabetes Type 1 is bad enough.
Interesting piece on diabetes from Sweden in the NEJM. The focus there on the condition has brought real improvement. I suspect there has been similar improvement here, albeit less marked.
Type 2 is potentially completely reservable. There is major research on-going at Newcastle. Extreme diet can reverse it, although only small trials to date.
The focus re Type 1 is on making it more manageable, including small implants that read off your current blood sugar level (very nifty - and shortly they'll be connectable to an app) and pumps, particularly among people whose routine is less structured, e.g. the young.
All good stuff. Apple are rumoured to be working on a new blood sugar monitor.
I just don't see the early election being a runner - the timing is daft. Surely you wait a mere 3 weeks until the local results to confirm the polling in the results?
May's trademark seems to be months of silent dithering followed by rushed decisive action too late.
How can she go for a GE, after saying repeatedly she won't? It is just not her style surely?
Had second thoughts, need to seek a mandate from public before Brexit negotiations begin, she doesn't really want an election personally but democracy has to come first, etc...
Evens: meaningless bollocks about some shit hole like Syria, North Korea or Norn Iron.
2/1: dead royal, maybe Phil the Greek
10/1: Early election. Hands off cocks, on with socks, lads.
20/1: Resigning due to ill health. Let's hope it's nothing trivial.
Dura, Too far on your 20/1, wishing ill health on anyone no matter the circumstances / who they are is bad patter.
Quite right. Apart from anything else Diabetes Type 1 is bad enough.
Interesting piece on diabetes from Sweden in the NEJM. The focus there on the condition has brought real improvement. I suspect there has been similar improvement here, albeit less marked.
Type 2 is potentially completely reservable. There is major research on-going at Newcastle. Extreme diet can reverse it, although only small trials to date.
The focus re Type 1 is on making it more manageable, including small implants that read off your current blood sugar level (very nifty - and shortly they'll be connectable to an app) and pumps, particularly among people whose routine is less structured, e.g. the young.
All good stuff. Apple are rumoured to be working on a new blood sugar monitor.
Philips are also working on non invasive sugar monitoring. Insulin pumps don't work for everyone.
Comments
The Queen was looking well the other day & there is the FTPA against GE17.
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Replying to @carlgardner
She could announce she's tabling a motion of no-confidence in her own Govt.
Makes Fillon's current odds look a little skinny.
DofE dead (as its not Brenda)
May resigning
NI Direct Rule
Early GE
Major Terror Attack stopped
War with North Korea
She's going to be the new Doctor Who
Osborne to be the new Archbishop of Canterbury
2/1: dead royal, maybe Phil the Greek
10/1: Early election. Hands off cocks, on with socks, lads.
20/1: Resigning due to ill health. Let's hope it's nothing trivial.
I've gone back in and upside is same as i was before but at about a third of the liability...
Worst time for Labour not Conservatives or Lib Dems.
But will she have to have a vote to change the fixed parliament arrangement first?
Of Scotland.
Edited extra bit: for the avoidance of doubt, that is a silly suggestion. Most of the serious ones seem to have been ruled out.
1. "There shall be an early GE" motion introduced this afternoon with a 10pm guillotine.
2. Wrap up bills this week
3. Parliament prorogued Monday 24th April
4. FTPA dictates election is 17 working days later, which is Thursday 18th May
Catch them offguard.
Return Aquitane lands to Engalnd.
"
Downing Street have had almost an hour now to discourage journalists from speculating about an early election. They are not doing that, which increases the chances that it will be an election announcement."
http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa1608664
Which suggests that unless there’s been unusual activity there it’s not RF-related. And if it was the DoE there would be an announcement from there, sureklt.
Presumably need to repeal the FTPA first. How long would that take?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_tenure
So GE or resignation.
Although the same for a resignation would apply as well.
http://www.ncl.ac.uk/magres/research/diabetes/reversal/#overview
Poor Canning still in "top" spot then!
I've got the following plans covered
1) Early election
2) Election expenses charges
3) She's resigning
4) NI stuff
5) Something Brexit related. 4 year transitional deal etc then formal exit.
6) Something Royal related.
1. Restoration of the Stuart dynasty .... or more likely
2. The prohibition of the cultivation, sale or consumption of turnips.
You'll have a fantastic position if there is no GE announcement, I'm in for as much as my nerves can take already.
4 would have been briefed?