Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Macron makes it to the final two then surely he’s the next

124

Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    edited April 2017
    Sky's Billy bunter just got a dressing down from PM for his rumour mongering ie pm not stepping down for health reasoms
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,883
    wasd said:

    Is TSE already typing out 4 different articles to try and cover all the possible announcements that might be made?

    Yup.

    I've got the following plans covered

    1) Early election

    2) Election expenses charges

    3) She's resigning

    4) NI stuff

    5) Something Brexit related. 4 year transitional deal etc then formal exit.

    6) Something Royal related.
    Something military/security related? Lost a sub? Caught someone smuggling chemical weapons in?
    Trump is also being interviewed on Fox. Could it be war?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,652
    2017 GE @ 1.64 /1.89 O_O
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    I don't know any more than anyone else, but announcing that a stack of Tory MPs are facing election charges, and that she has demanded that they all resign for bye-elections would be less crazy than some of the speculation here.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,411
    Pulpstar said:

    £775 to lay at 2.1 if anyone fancies it.

    You'll have a fantastic position if there is no GE announcement, I'm in for as much as my nerves can take already.

    I'm up to my limit.

    If she's resigning... And new Tory leader wants a general election.... Can that be done in time for 2017? GE + leadership all doable in 2017?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    edited April 2017
    "Serious" or "important" doesn't equate to, or have the feel of, a GE.

    Surely that would be "an announcement"?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Media Guido‏ @MediaGuido 1 min1 minute ago

    Fiona Hill texts @adamboultonSKY to say she will be making a formal complaint to Sky News over speculation about PM's health

    So not health related?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    TMay an avid PB reader has decided to listen to the wise words of Alistar Meeks and various Remoaners and has unrevoked article 50. And instead will seek to become a region of Germany. May claims this is best as we will easily out vot any other region and will therefore have immense power in Europe. It is the best way to influence things.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    An early GE would be the best thing for the country as it would mean the restoration of a functioning opposition in time for the Brexit negotiations.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited April 2017
    TOPPING said:

    "Serious" or "important" doesn't equate to, or have the feel of, a GE.

    Surely that would be "an announcement"?
    Maybe. Either way the lack of the badge would suggest it is a party matter.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 941
    There are elections in 2 weeks, and General Election announcement would await the outcomes of those, surely. I do not think it involves anything electorally. It is either to do with foreign affairs or unfortunatley she is unwell and is resigning.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843

    Pulpstar said:

    FTPA, FTPA, FTPA @Pulpstar vainly cried out !

    Even if she could, how woud we, the voting public, take to be called to the polls two or three weeks after the locals/mayorals and what not, and less that a year after the referendum.
    Low turnout because of election fatigue would likely help the tories even further, so that could actually be a reason to call a vote...
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    rkrkrk said:

    Is TSE already typing out 4 different articles to try and cover all the possible announcements that might be made?

    Yup.

    I've got the following plans covered

    1) Early election

    2) Election expenses charges

    3) She's resigning

    4) NI stuff

    5) Something Brexit related. 4 year transitional deal etc then formal exit.

    6) Something Royal related.
    2 seems most likely.
    4 would have been briefed?
    2) would be announced by the CPS at a press conference surely, in the tradition of self-important justice-endangering twattery introduced by that idiot Starmer?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,883
    June 8th election says BBC.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,411
    Pulpstar said:

    2017 GE @ 1.64 /1.89 O_O

    1.5 now.

    At some point someone must know something...
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    GIN1138 said:

    How can she go for a GE, after saying repeatedly she won't? It is just not her style surely?

    Had second thoughts, need to seek a mandate from public before Brexit negotiations begin, she doesn't really want an election personally but democracy has to come first, etc...
    When the polls change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,410

    Is TSE already typing out 4 different articles to try and cover all the possible announcements that might be made?

    Yup.

    I've got the following plans covered

    1) Early election

    2) Election expenses charges

    3) She's resigning

    4) NI stuff

    5) Something Brexit related. 4 year transitional deal etc then formal exit.

    6) Something Royal related.

    ---
    @rkrkrk:

    2 seems most likely.
    4 would have been briefed?
    (1) also covers (2)

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    TOPPING said:

    Bruce Forsyth????

    Nah - too big a deal for just the PM - Madge on the steps at Buck H for that. Unless, he's coming back to Strictly....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    Surprised "Dan The Man" hasn't found out what's going on yet...
  • FangsyFangsy Posts: 28
    So does the Gorton election go ahead if it's June 8? I have a tasty position...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    wasd said:

    Is TSE already typing out 4 different articles to try and cover all the possible announcements that might be made?

    Yup.

    I've got the following plans covered

    1) Early election

    2) Election expenses charges

    3) She's resigning

    4) NI stuff

    5) Something Brexit related. 4 year transitional deal etc then formal exit.

    6) Something Royal related.
    Something military/security related? Lost a sub? Caught someone smuggling chemical weapons in?
    Trump is also being interviewed on Fox. Could it be war?
    Singe the King of Spain's beard?

    Surely if war would lose element of surprise?
  • Whilst I know my military history, does anyone know if somewhere like RAF Fairford would be used by America to bomb North Korea?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    Earliest possible election date would be June 1st I think.

    Depends on how quickly they wrap things up.
    1. "There shall be an early GE" motion introduced this afternoon with a 10pm guillotine.
    2. Wrap up bills this week
    3. Parliament prorogued Monday 24th April
    4. FTPA dictates election is 17 working days later, which is Thursday 18th May
    Wrong I am afraid. The FTA - as eventually ammended - requires 25 working days between Dissolution and Polling Day. Parliament does not reassemble until 24th April - so earliest Thursday would be 1st June. If Labour refuse to play ball the earliest Polling Day would effectively be 15th or 22nd June.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    nunu said:

    TMay an avid PB reader has decided to listen to the wise words of Alistar Meeks and various Remoaners and has unrevoked article 50. And instead will seek to become a region of Germany. May claims this is best as we will easily out vot any other region and will therefore have immense power in Europe. It is the best way to influence things.

    Or we are about to become states 51-54?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    edited April 2017

    June 8th election says BBC.

    Bollocks I have a lot of work on in may and a month of jezza making a twat of himself on a daily basis won't help me get it done.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    GIN1138 said:

    How can she go for a GE, after saying repeatedly she won't? It is just not her style surely?

    Had second thoughts, need to seek a mandate from public before Brexit negotiations begin, she doesn't really want an election personally but democracy has to come first, etc...
    The Tories already have a majority and the HOC voted overwhelming to trigger article 50, it'd be a tough sell..

    I'm not sure how people would register their disapproval though. I doubt it'd be in voting Labour.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    GIN1138 said:

    How can she go for a GE, after saying repeatedly she won't? It is just not her style surely?

    Had second thoughts, need to seek a mandate from public before Brexit negotiations begin, she doesn't really want an election personally but democracy has to come first, etc...
    Thatcher (who first hand accounts suggest was more of a ditherer than her image suggests) in the 80s waited to see how the locals went before calling a GE. Then ran the GE campaign almost back to back with the locals, June 1983, June 1987. It is too late for a concurrent election and having overlapping campaigns with the locals would be a very strange decision, indeed. Unless, I suppose, repealing the fixed term act gives the game away but takes a few more weeks at least, hence a June election requires an announcement now?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,888
    Guardian says GE 8th June.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Even May has had enough of Corbyn's crapness. Time to put Labour out of it's misery.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    So a Conservative Party announcement - not a government announcement.

    If it's an election May is shown to be a brilliant general.

    Clausewitz's Principles of War

    •Surprise
    ◦Attack when the enemy least suspects it

    •Mass
    ◦Get there first with the most

    •Objective
    ◦Choose an objective and stick with it

    •Offensive
    ◦Seize the Initiative

    •Manoeuver
    ◦Move to more advantageous positions

    •Unity of Command
    ◦Place your entire force under the command of a single entity

    •Security
    ◦Don't let the enemy rob you of your advantages

    •Simplicity
    ◦Keep your plans clear and simple

    •Economy of Force
    ◦Allocate your limited forces wisely
  • eekeek Posts: 28,795
    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    Earliest possible election date would be June 1st I think.

    Depends on how quickly they wrap things up.
    1. "There shall be an early GE" motion introduced this afternoon with a 10pm guillotine.
    2. Wrap up bills this week
    3. Parliament prorogued Monday 24th April
    4. FTPA dictates election is 17 working days later, which is Thursday 18th May
    Wrong I am afraid. The FTA - as eventually ammended - requires 25 working days between Dissolution and Polling Day. Parliament does not reassemble until 24th April - so earliest Thursday would be 1st June. If Labour refuse to play ball the earliest Polling Day would effectively be 15th or 22nd June.
    Parliament resumes today - with Oral questions to the Chancellor at 2:30
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    Maybe announcement of prosecutions due to the electoral fraud allegations? Perhaps she would like to announce it and put her spin on it rather than waiting for an announcement from the CPS?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    Bbc suggesting June 8th
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    edited April 2017

    Whilst I know my military history, does anyone know if somewhere like RAF Fairford would be used by America to bomb North Korea?

    Oooooh. Good point. No idea about locations but something along those lines if not NK is in the running.

    Aaaaaaaaaaaargh!

    Edit: ok GE for me.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited April 2017
    Would naming the 2 aircraft carriers ‘HMS’s Brexit & Scarper’ warrant a PM announcement?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Of course, if plotters were planning to ditch Corbyn as labour leader after May local elctions they now can't do that, this could be the last chance to have corbyn as leader for the GE.

    May might be very very smart.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,990
    Fangsy said:

    So does the Gorton election go ahead if it's June 8? I have a tasty position...

    Probably. I don't know the exact legal provision but the by-election will certainly go ahead if parliamentary hoops are still being jumped through. I'd be very surprised if a GE campaign kicked off during the local elections, which'd imply that Gorton would be contested before a GE campaign as well.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    June 8th election says BBC.

    If so, quick word of advice for Remainers: if you want to influence the outcome by persuading the electorate how to vote, and you have the choice of trying to do so a) between now and 8th June, or b) from 9 June unto the last syllable of recorded time, the clever money is definitely on a), lads.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289

    Fangsy said:

    So does the Gorton election go ahead if it's June 8? I have a tasty position...

    Probably. I don't know the exact legal provision but the by-election will certainly go ahead if parliamentary hoops are still being jumped through. I'd be very surprised if a GE campaign kicked off during the local elections, which'd imply that Gorton would be contested before a GE campaign as well.
    Yes
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,994
    General election. Why?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719

    Guardian says that Buckingham Palace has confirmed that the Queen is currently resident at Windsor Castle,
    Which suggests that unless there’s been unusual activity there it’s not RF-related. And if it was the DoE there would be an announcement from there, sureklt.

    If she's at windsor then probably not a GE as she would need to be at buck house?

    Although the same for a resignation would apply as well.
    Damp squib coming up
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    The whole thing is really quite odd - over an hour of speculation time seems rather silly.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,652
    Hello ?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    edited April 2017
    GE: IT'S HAPPENING!!!!!

    Edit: sorry getting over excited.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    edited April 2017
    In al seriousness I agree with SO an early GE would be good for the country. We decide if may gets a mandidate and jezza gets removed / we hopefully get an opposition that isnt a load of mad terrorist sympathizers.
  • She's out
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,652

    Guardian says GE 8th June.

    No, Laura Kuennsberg has had one unconfirmed rumour saying that.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    JackW said:

    Two possibilities .....

    1. Restoration of the Stuart dynasty .... or more likely
    2. The prohibition of the cultivation, sale or consumption of turnips.

    She would not dare jack
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    Oh Dear for Labour. Step up Mr Farron...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    GE!!!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    But has Corbyn agreed to it?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    election
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    Oh shit she is here early....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    edited April 2017
    Yes June 8
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    £ is bouncing back dramatically. WTF.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    BOOOOOOOOMMMM

    come in Mr Corbyn, your time is up....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,883
    She knows the good times won't last. Sounds like blind panic.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Blimey!
  • Pulpstar said:

    Hello ?

    Is it me you're looking for?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,994
    Sick royal?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    edited April 2017

    BOOOOOOOOMMMM

    come in Mr Corbyn, your time is up....

    And the numpties suggesting LibDem campaigning in Gorton risked Corbyn going "too early" were...?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Goodbye Jezza.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    malcolmg said:

    JackW said:

    Two possibilities .....

    1. Restoration of the Stuart dynasty .... or more likely
    2. The prohibition of the cultivation, sale or consumption of turnips.

    She would not dare jack
    My turnips are safe
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Framing it as Westminster versus Brexit
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    How can she make an announcement of an election.. does not the FPTA mean it has to be agreed by parliament?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    She's out

    She waited until A50 was triggered so there is no going back.

    Another election on Labour friendly gerrymandered boundaries.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Lord Lucan found but Shergar dead?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    dr_spyn said:

    Goodbye Jezza.

    Thank God, Allah, Buddha......
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    so since 2010 we've had Gordon Brown kicked out, the Yellow Peril destroyed, SNP lost Indi Ref, Ed Miliband crushed and Scotland lost for Labour, We are leaving the EU and Trump elected, now we will witness the British Labour Party being annihilated. Who said politics is boring?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited April 2017
    I cannot see it being an election thanks to the FTPA

    Norn Iron direct rule would be more likely for a political matter. Personal health and other matters are unpredictable

    Big random one - Brexit is cancelled :D:D:dizzy:


    The Beeb says it is an election. So much for the FTPA
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    felix said:

    £ is bouncing back dramatically. WTF.

    They were looking at a 99% chance it was an early election against a 1% chance it was The Pound Has Been Stolen.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    So, farewell then Jeremy Corbyn.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    Yes the issue has always been that a 2020 GE would fall at exactly the wrong time.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    People can't be buying this surely.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    The polls were just too good.

    Labour out of power until 2027 now.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    But Labour can block it!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,888

    I cannot see it being an election thanks to the FTPA

    Norn Iron direct rule would be more likely for a political matter. Personal health and other matters are unpredictable

    Big random one - Brexit is cancelled :D:D:dizzy:

    It is an election
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Wow wasn't expecting that. Despite all her previous announcements to the contrary this is definitely the smart move for her to make.

    This also indicates she will stand on a manifesto that displeases ultra-leavers. She can get endorsement via electorate for a form of transition deal, because she has no chance of losing to Corbyn. She wants to get her insurance policy in against inevitable cries of betrayal.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    justin124 said:

    But Labour can block it!

    Surely not possible electorally.

    "All about leadership."!!!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    justin124 said:

    But Labour can block it!

    Is Jezza red or yellow ?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    Brilliant move.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Triggered!

    Now we get to show the left wing what happens when they take over the party
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,888
    She’s coming out fighting, too!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289

    Wow wasn't expecting that. Despite all her previous announcements to the contrary this is definitely the smart move for her to make.

    This also indicates she will stand on a manifesto that displeases ultra-leavers. She can get endorsement via electorate for a form of transition deal, because she has no chance of losing to Corbyn. She wants to get her insurance policy in against inevitable cries of betrayal.

    Yes, the campaign will force the Tories to aim for a softer Brexit. But UKIP being flat on its back probably makes this safer than it seemed a few months back.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373
    Apparently now is the time, all our energies don't need to be focused on our negotiations with the European Union about our future relationship, and people will have the necessary information to make such a crucial decision.
  • justin124 said:

    But Labour can block it!

    Do not think they can politically
  • Bad News - Tory Majority of 150.
    Good News - DIE CORBYN DIE
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    What a woman!!!!!!!!!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    'Strengthen the government's hand and give May the best shot in the negotiations' is going to be a strong line for the Tories.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Wow. Expect to see looped clips of May's frequent "politics is NOT a game" intonations, against this transparently opportunistic tactic.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,883
    Viewed from Brussels this must look no more credible that Tsipras's snap referendum. She thinks they'll be impressed by her mandate. They won't.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    edited April 2017

    Apparently now is the time, all our energies don't need to be focused on our negotiations with the European Union about our future relationship, and people will have the necessary information to make such a crucial decision.

    Domestic audience and power > EU anything.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    edited April 2017
    Tessie not fucking about...that was fighting talk there.
  • Pound rising since early falls
  • NEW THREAD

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    IanB2 said:

    'Strengthen the government's hand and give May the best shot in the negotiations' is going to be a strong line for the Tories.

    Not for 48% of the Country
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    If Labour really do vote for this, then they're even dumber than anyone thought.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,410
    Could any of this be influenced by the referendum in Turkey? Much of Mrs May' reasoning is identical to Mr Erdogan's.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    I cannot see it being an election thanks to the FTPA

    Norn Iron direct rule would be more likely for a political matter. Personal health and other matters are unpredictable

    Big random one - Brexit is cancelled :D:D:dizzy:

    It is an election
    All the bookies' quoted odds on the date of the next GE have disappeared.
    Funny that ...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Labour have to agree.

    Will they?
This discussion has been closed.