politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Macron makes it to the final two then surely he’s the next
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Macron makes it to the final two then surely he’s the next President of France
The above tables from the excellent Wikipedia round of of French polls tell a consistent story – whoever of those closest on the first round ends up fighting Macron then the young independent looks set to be the winner.
Comments
-
Glorious First
0 -
Second! Unlike Corbyn.0
-
Third, like one of the candidates will be - but God only knows which one!0
-
John Oliver on the French election - rather too much about how Le Pen is evil, but some other useful bits in there too.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=hkZir1L7fSY0 -
Morning all.
Long, drawn-out and complicated, thank god we don’t have Presidential elections in the UK.
0 -
It does seem a bit silly that the candidate more popular than any one of the others might well not make it to the final round (and I'm seriously tempted to re-back him having laid the bet a while ago.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
Long, drawn-out and complicated, thank god we don’t have Presidential elections in the UK.
Meanwhile, physicists create a time crystal, which some of the physicists who theorised them said wasn't possible:
https://phys.org/news/2017-04-physicists-crystals-key-quantum-machines.html
0 -
"Not available in your country."Sandpit said:John Oliver on the French election - rather too much about how Le Pen is evil, but some other useful bits in there too.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=hkZir1L7fSY0 -
Macron either first or second wins him the presidency. He has the sane and not a crook vote sewn up. As he is either top or neck and neck with Le Pen the 3.45 at BF for first does look good value. I can see the undecideds breaking for him.
The French party system is well an truly smashed, at least at presidential level.0 -
-
If...0
-
That's what VPNs are for ...Fysics_Teacher said:
"Not available in your country."Sandpit said:John Oliver on the French election - rather too much about how Le Pen is evil, but some other useful bits in there too.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=hkZir1L7fSY0 -
Astonishing that anyone uses the internet without one these days.MTimT said:
That's what VPNs are for ...Fysics_Teacher said:
"Not available in your country."Sandpit said:John Oliver on the French election - rather too much about how Le Pen is evil, but some other useful bits in there too.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=hkZir1L7fSY0 -
Did I miss the whole "Minister for Brexit doesn't understand Brexit means Brexit" discussion?
https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/8539614595917209600 -
It seems to me that there are 2 possibilities. Firstly, the French are obviously mad in large part and have devised this system to ensure the cohesiveness of the Republic by driving the minority of sane mad too. The other possibility is that Macron is a pudding and everyone's second favourite after they have enjoyed their red meat but does not excite terribly on his own. I think I marginally prefer the former explanation.0
-
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4419490/Only-two-Osborne-s-19-Brexit-forecasts-come-true.htmlScott_P said:Did I miss the whole "Minister for Brexit doesn't understand Brexit means Brexit" discussion?
https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/8539614595917209600 -
What's going on? I thought this was the Corbyn is crap blog?0
-
Technically its not what they are for, but its something you can use them to do...MTimT said:
That's what VPNs are for ...Fysics_Teacher said:
"Not available in your country."Sandpit said:John Oliver on the French election - rather too much about how Le Pen is evil, but some other useful bits in there too.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=hkZir1L7fSY0 -
Maybe we have the inside track that the 1,000 staff are desperate to stay in the world's finest city, and not get relocated to Wuppertal or somewhere else terminally dull....Scott_P said:Did I miss the whole "Minister for Brexit doesn't understand Brexit means Brexit" discussion?
https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/8539614595917209600 -
And maybe our Brexit negotiating team is dumb as a bag of rocks.MarqueeMark said:Maybe we have the inside track that the 1,000 staff are desperate to stay in the world's finest city, and not get relocated to Wuppertal or somewhere else terminally dull....
If that really is the standard of our negotiating technique, we are going to get reamed0 -
The employees can stay if they want. I hear there are jobs going at Costa Coffee. If they want to work as medicines regulators however....MarqueeMark said:
Maybe we have the inside track that the 1,000 staff are desperate to stay in the world's finest city, and not get relocated to Wuppertal or somewhere else terminally dull....Scott_P said:Did I miss the whole "Minister for Brexit doesn't understand Brexit means Brexit" discussion?
https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/8539614595917209600 -
The EU just need to make sure they pay their €300m divorce bill on the lease.0
-
Is there any reason why the EU can't sublet or assign?chestnut said:The EU just need to make sure they pay their €300m divorce bill on the lease.
0 -
You don't understand. As long as we're out, it doesn't matter what type of Leave we get.Scott_P said:Did I miss the whole "Minister for Brexit doesn't understand Brexit means Brexit" discussion?
https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/853961459591720960
We'll be out. So, if we have:
1) immigration at similar levels to those of today via a cocktail of specialist visas;
2) regulatory equivalence which would mean ensuring our standards and regulations are subject to ongoing adherence to those made in Brussels;
3) services, such as clearing, remaining in the UK which, in that particular respect would mean the BoE liable for bailing out EU-based financial services firms should one of them go bust;
4) etc
Because we'll be master of our own destiny and we'll be out.0 -
On topic, there's been a lot of talk of Emmanuel Macron not making the last two and very little of Marine Le Pen not making the last two. Given the polling, that's odd.0
-
Why should French voters be denied their time in the sun?AlastairMeeks said:On topic, there's been a lot of talk of Emmanuel Macron not making the last two and very little of Marine Le Pen not making the last two. Given the polling, that's odd.
0 -
Macron vs Fillon is the likely mechanism for that, with LePen in third. The populist bubble would have well and truly burst.AlastairMeeks said:On topic, there's been a lot of talk of Emmanuel Macron not making the last two and very little of Marine Le Pen not making the last two. Given the polling, that's odd.
0 -
I want to leave the golf club but I still want to use the bar.TOPPING said:
You don't understand. As long as we're out, it doesn't matter what type of Leave we get.Scott_P said:Did I miss the whole "Minister for Brexit doesn't understand Brexit means Brexit" discussion?
https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/853961459591720960
We'll be out. So, if we have:
1) immigration at similar levels to those of today via a cocktail of specialist visas;
2) regulatory equivalence which would mean ensuring our standards and regulations are subject to ongoing adherence to those made in Brussels;
3) services, such as clearing, remaining in the UK which, in that particular respect would mean the BoE liable for bailing out EU-based financial services firms should one of them go bust;
4) etc
Because we'll be master of our own destiny and we'll be out.0 -
...and be Club Secretary...OldKingCole said:I want to leave the golf club but I still want to use the bar.
0 -
Some places allow that of course.OldKingCole said:
I want to leave the golf club but I still want to use the bar.TOPPING said:
You don't understand. As long as we're out, it doesn't matter what type of Leave we get.Scott_P said:Did I miss the whole "Minister for Brexit doesn't understand Brexit means Brexit" discussion?
https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/853961459591720960
We'll be out. So, if we have:
1) immigration at similar levels to those of today via a cocktail of specialist visas;
2) regulatory equivalence which would mean ensuring our standards and regulations are subject to ongoing adherence to those made in Brussels;
3) services, such as clearing, remaining in the UK which, in that particular respect would mean the BoE liable for bailing out EU-based financial services firms should one of them go bust;
4) etc
Because we'll be master of our own destiny and we'll be out.
Not in this instance I would think.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Meeks, to be fair, there was some talk of that yesterday between myself, Mr. G and Mr. rkrkrk (perhaps others too, after I left).
It's certainly close.0 -
So about as accurate as his Budget predictions.Alanbrooke said:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4419490/Only-two-Osborne-s-19-Brexit-forecasts-come-true.htmlScott_P said:Did I miss the whole "Minister for Brexit doesn't understand Brexit means Brexit" discussion?
https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/853961459591720960
' Public sector net debt as a share of GDP will be 62 per cent this year, before peaking at 70 per cent in 2013-14. Because of our action today, it then begins to fall, to 69 per cent in 2014-15 and then 67 per cent in 2015-16. '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/budget/7846849/Budget-2010-Full-text-of-George-Osbornes-statement.html
Public sector net debt as a share of GDP currently stands at 85.4 per cent.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x/pusf
That's the equivalent of approaching £400bn of over-borrowing.0 -
https://twitter.com/Pulpstar/status/854230694754734081AlastairMeeks said:On topic, there's been a lot of talk of Emmanuel Macron not making the last two and very little of Marine Le Pen not making the last two. Given the polling, that's odd.
0 -
I suppose not, providing the landlord is happy with it. It makes for a happy precedent on any claims they wish to make on us for rentals on the continent.AlastairMeeks said:
Is there any reason why the EU can't sublet or assign?chestnut said:The EU just need to make sure they pay their €300m divorce bill on the lease.
0 -
Certainly if Macron makes the runoff he will almost certainly win, the question will be more about his margin of victory. If he is to be stopped it will probably be by Fillon knocking him out in the first round at the last minute to go to a runoff against Le Pen0
-
Not entirely, Le Pen would likely still be over 20% and it would require some of her voters to have switched to Fillon who would then have to run a nationalist, tough on security, anti immigration campaign in the runoff in order to win over Le Pen' s first round voters and have a chance of beating Macronfoxinsoxuk said:
Macron vs Fillon is the likely mechanism for that, with LePen in third. The populist bubble would have well and truly burst.AlastairMeeks said:On topic, there's been a lot of talk of Emmanuel Macron not making the last two and very little of Marine Le Pen not making the last two. Given the polling, that's odd.
0 -
I'm still hoping for Le Pen vs fillion, as it'll be funny that after rising to be favourite for months if Macron then misses the cut, and it ends up being the two everyone thought it would be.0
-
You can see the logic behind the system, to identity a straight choice at the end of the contest - it's basically AV but with the big difference of foreknowledge of who the final two you have to choose from will be (which tbf in a UK contest is usually obvious anyhow). But I am thinking the current situation with four candidates all very close in the final polls, introducing a significant uncertainty as to who may go out, must be unprecedented for France?Nigelb said:
It does seem a bit silly that the candidate more popular than any one of the others might well not make it to the final round (and I'm seriously tempted to re-back him having laid the bet a while ago.SimonStClare said:Morning all.
Long, drawn-out and complicated, thank god we don’t have Presidential elections in the UK.
Meanwhile, physicists create a time crystal, which some of the physicists who theorised them said wasn't possible:
https://phys.org/news/2017-04-physicists-crystals-key-quantum-machines.html
Since consensus is that MLP can never win the final vote, from the system's point of view it would be best if two others went through to the final round, and MLP went out, allowing an actual final choice.0 -
Why? Is the UK government the landlord?chestnut said:
I suppose not, providing the landlord is happy with it. It makes for a happy precedent on any claims they wish to make on us for rentals on the continent.AlastairMeeks said:
Is there any reason why the EU can't sublet or assign?chestnut said:The EU just need to make sure they pay their €300m divorce bill on the lease.
0 -
The lesson of the French campaign may well be that a younger Corbyn made a critical mistake in never seeking some oratorical lessons from his former friend Mr Galloway.SquareRoot said:What's going on? I thought this was the Corbyn is crap blog?
0 -
Tough tits they better start job hunting then. Exquisite that "leave means leave" coming back to haunt these dummies.MarqueeMark said:
Maybe we have the inside track that the 1,000 staff are desperate to stay in the world's finest city, and not get relocated to Wuppertal or somewhere else terminally dull....Scott_P said:Did I miss the whole "Minister for Brexit doesn't understand Brexit means Brexit" discussion?
https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/8539614595917209600 -
You see the three stooges leading it , the results are guaranteed.Scott_P said:
And maybe our Brexit negotiating team is dumb as a bag of rocks.MarqueeMark said:Maybe we have the inside track that the 1,000 staff are desperate to stay in the world's finest city, and not get relocated to Wuppertal or somewhere else terminally dull....
If that really is the standard of our negotiating technique, we are going to get reamed0 -
Bit of an odd piece from Samuel dale on uncut - bigging up the lab candidate for the West Midlands, it says electing a Tory would be electing a government stooge and cites in particular being so on the NHS.
But is then full of little details like 'needs consent from dwp ' and 'outside the powers' of the mayoralty, including the NHS stuff. So outside of some publicity, which is not nothing, who the mayor is doesn't affect many of the issues.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/04/17/knife-edge-west-midlands-race-points-to-labours-future/0 -
The landlord is the landlord. Presumably there is a contract, for example a 25 year one at £10.5 m per annum with no break clauses until 2040.AlastairMeeks said:
Why? Is the UK government the landlord?chestnut said:
I suppose not, providing the landlord is happy with it. It makes for a happy precedent on any claims they wish to make on us for rentals on the continent.AlastairMeeks said:
Is there any reason why the EU can't sublet or assign?chestnut said:The EU just need to make sure they pay their €300m divorce bill on the lease.
0 -
Hmm, I dont speak French, but I think I might just be able to figure that one out.Pulpstar said:
Have you listened to his campaign ?HYUFD said:Fillon who would then have to run a nationalist, tough on security, anti immigration campaign
"Le terrorisme islamique" almost the first words he comes out with at every rally
0 -
Meanwhile Le Pen makes a pitch for Melenchon voters contrasting her 'patriotism' to Macron's 'savage globalisation'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-396255090 -
The first round is about pandering to your core vote. Macron doesn't have one, which is a problem for him. He does have an idea, which is different from the others, all of which think the modern world is a problem for France, but articulate the problem in different ways. There will be at least one "stop the world, we want to get off" candidate in the second round. It depends if French voters supporting that idea can coalesce around whichever candidate that is. If they do, Macron's advantage in the second round might be less than implied by the polls noted in the header. I can't see Fillon supporters lending their votes to Melenchon and vice versa however, so Macron may come through, just by being less objectionable.foxinsoxuk said:Macron either first or second wins him the presidency. He has the sane and not a crook vote sewn up. As he is either top or neck and neck with Le Pen the 3.45 at BF for first does look good value. I can see the undecideds breaking for him.
The French party system is well an truly smashed, at least at presidential level.0 -
-
He would have to run that message on steroids in the runoff to win over Le Pen votersPulpstar said:
Have you listened to his campaign ?HYUFD said:Fillon who would then have to run a nationalist, tough on security, anti immigration campaign
"Le terrorisme islamique" almost the first words he comes out with at every rally0 -
Remember that the Docklands development was to be a triumph of free enterprise (although given the role of the LDDC in planning, land assembly and project management you could easily argue the role of public sector co-ordination also).AlastairMeeks said:
Why? Is the UK government the landlord?chestnut said:
I suppose not, providing the landlord is happy with it. It makes for a happy precedent on any claims they wish to make on us for rentals on the continent.AlastairMeeks said:
Is there any reason why the EU can't sublet or assign?chestnut said:The EU just need to make sure they pay their €300m divorce bill on the lease.
The principal sites are mostly owned by the Canary Wharf Group, which was spun out of Olympia & York when it went under, that (Canadian) company having done much of the original development.0 -
It will still be tagged onto UK bill, EU will not be picking up any of the bills for the UK's stupidity.chestnut said:0 -
chestnut said:
The landlord is the landlord. Presumably there is a contract, for example a 25 year one at £10.5 m per annum with no break clauses until 2040.AlastairMeeks said:
Why? Is the UK government the landlord?chestnut said:
I suppose not, providing the landlord is happy with it. It makes for a happy precedent on any claims they wish to make on us for rentals on the continent.AlastairMeeks said:
Is there any reason why the EU can't sublet or assign?chestnut said:The EU just need to make sure they pay their €300m divorce bill on the lease.
Definitely the British government.Wikipedia said:Sir George Iacobescu CBE (born 9 November 1945) is the chairman and chief executive officer (CEO) of Canary Wharf Group, the London-based owners and developers of the Canary Wharf estate in London Docklands. He is one of the most successful Romanian-born businessmen
In 2004, a majority of the company was acquired by Glick Family Investments and Morgan Stanley using an investment vehicle company called Songbird Acquisitions, which was later taken over by China Investment Corporation.
0 -
-
Can't see anything of relevance there.Pulpstar said:chestnut said:
The landlord is the landlord. Presumably there is a contract, for example a 25 year one at £10.5 m per annum with no break clauses until 2040.AlastairMeeks said:
Why? Is the UK government the landlord?chestnut said:
I suppose not, providing the landlord is happy with it. It makes for a happy precedent on any claims they wish to make on us for rentals on the continent.AlastairMeeks said:
Is there any reason why the EU can't sublet or assign?chestnut said:The EU just need to make sure they pay their €300m divorce bill on the lease.
Definitely the British government.Wikipedia said:Sir George Iacobescu CBE (born 9 November 1945) is the chairman and chief executive officer (CEO) of Canary Wharf Group, the London-based owners and developers of the Canary Wharf estate in London Docklands. He is one of the most successful Romanian-born businessmen
In 2004, a majority of the company was acquired by Glick Family Investments and Morgan Stanley using an investment vehicle company called Songbird Acquisitions, which was later taken over by China Investment Corporation.
0 -
Mr. Divvie, didn't John Kerry once refer to Ed Miliband as 'Mr. Leader'?0
-
To be (slightly) fair to the Minister for Brexit, his suggestion is to use the location of these EU bodies as a bargaining chip. In exchange for Britain graciously allowing the agencies to move, the EU will provide a juicy Brexit deal. In reality, of course, the EU will totally ignore Mr Davis.Scott_P said:
Did I miss the whole "Minister for Brexit doesn't understand Brexit means Brexit" discussion?
https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/8539614595917209600 -
So anything that the EU negotiate with the landlord will have zero relevance to the UK's position.chestnut said:
The landlord is the landlord. Presumably there is a contract, for example a 25 year one at £10.5 m per annum with no break clauses until 2040.AlastairMeeks said:
Why? Is the UK government the landlord?chestnut said:
I suppose not, providing the landlord is happy with it. It makes for a happy precedent on any claims they wish to make on us for rentals on the continent.AlastairMeeks said:
Is there any reason why the EU can't sublet or assign?chestnut said:The EU just need to make sure they pay their €300m divorce bill on the lease.
You seem to think that you have a point. Perhaps you can have another go at expressing it?0 -
Probably just due to the odd american habit of referring to everyone by title, even when they leave office, but we do not do that, and the most common signifier we use comes at the end, so he got confused. I had thought it was Mitt Romney for some reason. Rich white guys all look the same I guess.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Divvie, didn't John Kerry once refer to Ed Miliband as 'Mr. Leader'?
0 -
Macron seems to draw a crowd. A full Bercy arena last night.FF43 said:
The first round is about pandering to your core vote. Macron doesn't have one, which is a problem for him. He does have an idea, which is different from the others, all of which think the modern world is a problem for France, but articulate the problem in different ways. There will be at least one "stop the world, we want to get off" candidate in the second round. It depends if French voters supporting that idea can coalesce around whichever candidate that is. If they do, Macron's advantage in the second round might be less than implied by the polls noted in the header. I can't see Fillon supporters lending their votes to Melenchon and vice versa however, so Macron may come through, just by being less objectionable.foxinsoxuk said:Macron either first or second wins him the presidency. He has the sane and not a crook vote sewn up. As he is either top or neck and neck with Le Pen the 3.45 at BF for first does look good value. I can see the undecideds breaking for him.
The French party system is well an truly smashed, at least at presidential level.
https://twitter.com/Pierre_Benjamin/status/8539784411542528000 -
Mr. kle4, in retrospect, I think you're right.
In my defence, Kerry and Romney aren't hugely dissimilar.0 -
All this posturing reinforces that we need to leave the EU as soon as possible. They clearly need us far more than we need them.0
-
F1: hmm. I don't have the money to do this, but Hamilton and Vettel have title prices on Betfair of 1.94 and 2.5.
So, if you've got a stack of cash and don't believe anyone else will stand a chance (worth remembering we're in early days) you could back both and finish ahead if either wins.0 -
You say that as if there were a lot of money involved. If I pluck from the air a figure for our current contributions of say, oooooh, £350 m per week, 300 m euros is about 5 days worth. Small change.chestnut said:The EU just need to make sure they pay their €300m divorce bill on the lease.
0 -
And the EU will have to pay the lease.FF43 said:To be (slightly) fair to the Minister for Brexit, his suggestion is to use the location of these EU bodies as a bargaining chip. In exchange for Britain graciously allowing the agencies to move, the EU will provide a juicy Brexit deal. In reality, of course, the EU will totally ignore Mr Davis.
Scott_P said:Did I miss the whole "Minister for Brexit doesn't understand Brexit means Brexit" discussion?
https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/853961459591720960
The 'argue about everything' strategy is certainly worth trying after the complete failure of Blair's 'say yes to whatever the French want' and Cameron's 'bluster, surrender, lie' strategies.0 -
AlastairMeeks said:
So anything that the EU negotiate with the landlord will have zero relevance to the UK's position.chestnut said:
The landlord is the landlord. Presumably there is a contract, for example a 25 year one at £10.5 m per annum with no break clauses until 2040.AlastairMeeks said:
Why? Is the UK government the landlord?chestnut said:
I suppose not, providing the landlord is happy with it. It makes for a happy precedent on any claims they wish to make on us for rentals on the continent.AlastairMeeks said:
Is there any reason why the EU can't sublet or assign?chestnut said:The EU just need to make sure they pay their €300m divorce bill on the lease.
You seem to think that you have a point. Perhaps you can have another go at expressing it?
The EU's negotiating position is that the costs of divorce and settlement need to be agreed.AlastairMeeks said:
So anything that the EU negotiate with the landlord will have zero relevance to the UK's position.chestnut said:
The landlord is the landlord. Presumably there is a contract, for example a 25 year one at £10.5 m per annum with no break clauses until 2040.AlastairMeeks said:
Why? Is the UK government the landlord?chestnut said:
I suppose not, providing the landlord is happy with it. It makes for a happy precedent on any claims they wish to make on us for rentals on the continent.AlastairMeeks said:
Is there any reason why the EU can't sublet or assign?chestnut said:The EU just need to make sure they pay their €300m divorce bill on the lease.
This property has a 25 year lease on it until 2040, cumulative cost around 300m.
Using their preferred division of responsibility, they owe around 85% of the 300m bill on a property this almost certainly wish to vacate.
That leaves them with a problem. Honouring obligations and not cherry picking cuts both ways.
0 -
Doubtful, but we do have a hand to play. Whether this agency stuff is something worth making a fuss about, as part of a principle, I do not know.freetochoose said:All this posturing reinforces that we need to leave the EU as soon as possible. They clearly need us far more than we need them.
0 -
If they need to, they'll negotiate with the landlord and cut a deal. If you think that will be anywhere near 300m, you're living in cloud cuckoo land.chestnut said:AlastairMeeks said:
So anything that the EU negotiate with the landlord will have zero relevance to the UK's position.chestnut said:
The landlord is the landlord. Presumably there is a contract, for example a 25 year one at £10.5 m per annum with no break clauses until 2040.AlastairMeeks said:
Why? Is the UK government the landlord?chestnut said:
I suppose not, providing the landlord is happy with it. It makes for a happy precedent on any claims they wish to make on us for rentals on the continent.AlastairMeeks said:
Is there any reason why the EU can't sublet or assign?chestnut said:The EU just need to make sure they pay their €300m divorce bill on the lease.
You seem to think that you have a point. Perhaps you can have another go at expressing it?
The EU's negotiating position is that the costs of divorce and settlement need to be agreed.AlastairMeeks said:
So anything that the EU negotiate with the landlord will have zero relevance to the UK's position.chestnut said:
The landlord is the landlord. Presumably there is a contract, for example a 25 year one at £10.5 m per annum with no break clauses until 2040.AlastairMeeks said:
Why? Is the UK government the landlord?chestnut said:
I suppose not, providing the landlord is happy with it. It makes for a happy precedent on any claims they wish to make on us for rentals on the continent.AlastairMeeks said:
Is there any reason why the EU can't sublet or assign?chestnut said:The EU just need to make sure they pay their €300m divorce bill on the lease.
This property has a 25 year lease on it until 2040, cumulative cost around 300m.
Using their preferred division of responsibility, they owe around 85% of the 300m bill on a property this almost certainly wish to vacate.
That leaves them with a problem. Honouring obligations and not cherry picking cuts both ways.
Oh, you're a Leaver. Carry on.0 -
Le pen going for le trump ban+++
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/18/will-protect-marine-le-pen-vows-end-immigration-france-elected/0 -
In the grand scheme of things, yes.Ishmael_Z said:
You say that as if there were a lot of money involved. If I pluck from the air a figure for our current contributions of say, oooooh, £350 m per week, 300 m euros is about 5 days worth. Small change.chestnut said:The EU just need to make sure they pay their €300m divorce bill on the lease.
It depends on the way negotiations develop though. Whatever happens, it's a 300m obligation.0 -
So, they walk away from rental obligations? What's good for the goose..AlastairMeeks said:
If they need to, they'll negotiate with the landlord and cut a deal. If you think that will be anywhere near 300m, you're living in cloud cuckoo land.chestnut said:AlastairMeeks said:
So anything that the EU negotiate with the landlord will have zero relevance to the UK's position.chestnut said:
The landlord is the landlord. Presumably there is a contract, for example a 25 year one at £10.5 m per annum with no break clauses until 2040.AlastairMeeks said:
Why? Is the UK government the landlord?chestnut said:
I suppose not, providing the landlord is happy with it. It makes for a happy precedent on any claims they wish to make on us for rentals on the continent.AlastairMeeks said:
Is there any reason why the EU can't sublet or assign?chestnut said:The EU just need to make sure they pay their €300m divorce bill on the lease.
You seem to think that you have a point. Perhaps you can have another go at expressing it?
The EU's negotiating position is that the costs of divorce and settlement need to be agreed.AlastairMeeks said:
So anything that the EU negotiate with the landlord will have zero relevance to the UK's position.chestnut said:
The landlord is the landlord. Presumably there is a contract, for example a 25 year one at £10.5 m per annum with no break clauses until 2040.AlastairMeeks said:
Why? Is the UK government the landlord?chestnut said:
I suppose not, providing the landlord is happy with it. It makes for a happy precedent on any claims they wish to make on us for rentals on the continent.AlastairMeeks said:
Is there any reason why the EU can't sublet or assign?chestnut said:The EU just need to make sure they pay their €300m divorce bill on the lease.
This property has a 25 year lease on it until 2040, cumulative cost around 300m.
Using their preferred division of responsibility, they owe around 85% of the 300m bill on a property this almost certainly wish to vacate.
That leaves them with a problem. Honouring obligations and not cherry picking cuts both ways.
Oh, you're a Leaver. Carry on.0 -
They just stick it onto the £50 Billion , then pay the landlord with the UK's money simple really.chestnut said:0 -
Not sure argue about everything fits well with the time limit of two years?another_richard said:
And the EU will have to pay the lease.FF43 said:To be (slightly) fair to the Minister for Brexit, his suggestion is to use the location of these EU bodies as a bargaining chip. In exchange for Britain graciously allowing the agencies to move, the EU will provide a juicy Brexit deal. In reality, of course, the EU will totally ignore Mr Davis.
Scott_P said:Did I miss the whole "Minister for Brexit doesn't understand Brexit means Brexit" discussion?
https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/853961459591720960
The 'argue about everything' strategy is certainly worth trying after the complete failure of Blair's 'say yes to whatever the French want' and Cameron's 'bluster, surrender, lie' strategies.0 -
I think Alastair is suggesting that the EU will offer a payment to cancel the contract early.chestnut said:
So, they walk away from rental obligations? What's good for the goose..AlastairMeeks said:<
If they need to, they'll negotiate with the landlord and cut a deal. If you think that will be anywhere near 300m, you're living in cloud cuckoo land.
Oh, you're a Leaver. Carry on.
As long as both parties agree it's no problem surely?0 -
No. Once again, they'll negotiate with the landlord and cut a deal. If you think that will be anywhere near 300m, you're living in cloud cuckoo land.chestnut said:
So, they walk away from rental obligations? What's good for the goose..AlastairMeeks said:
If they need to, they'll negotiate with the landlord and cut a deal. If you think that will be anywhere near 300m, you're living in cloud cuckoo land.
Oh, you're a Leaver. Carry on.
This is not difficult stuff.0 -
Mr. Eagles, but who will be the French Camerons, and who will be les Milibands?0
-
The complete change is that we are now going out of the EU and have therefore lost most of our influence, traded away for notional sovereignty, but leaving us with less say over our destiny than before. If you think we had no influence in the first place, you are wrong, but hardly alone in thinking that.another_richard said:
And the EU will have to pay the lease.FF43 said:To be (slightly) fair to the Minister for Brexit, his suggestion is to use the location of these EU bodies as a bargaining chip. In exchange for Britain graciously allowing the agencies to move, the EU will provide a juicy Brexit deal. In reality, of course, the EU will totally ignore Mr Davis.
Scott_P said:Did I miss the whole "Minister for Brexit doesn't understand Brexit means Brexit" discussion?
https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/853961459591720960
The 'argue about everything' strategy is certainly worth trying after the complete failure of Blair's 'say yes to whatever the French want' and Cameron's 'bluster, surrender, lie' strategies.
The "argue about everything" strategy just wastes time if you want Brexit to look anything like "success".0 -
MD, surely you lose if Hamilton wins as he is odds on so you get less than twice stake back, unless of course you put more on Hamilton than Vettel but even then you tie up your money for a long time for such small return.Morris_Dancer said:F1: hmm. I don't have the money to do this, but Hamilton and Vettel have title prices on Betfair of 1.94 and 2.5.
So, if you've got a stack of cash and don't believe anyone else will stand a chance (worth remembering we're in early days) you could back both and finish ahead if either wins.0 -
I am sure it will be fine, it isnt like the polls have failed us in recent times....TheScreamingEagles said:twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/853998602754158592
0 -
Hands up if you've ever dealt with an early break clause/termination of a lease? And paid full price?
Oui and non.
0 -
Mr. G, well, yes, obviously you have to vary the stakes a little.
The long time frame and relatively low return, plus necessary funding, is why I'm not backing it myself. But I know PB has some fellows who play with much bigger stakes who might be interested.
I'm astounded their odds permit this. The only way one of them doesn't win (barring broken legs or that sort of thing) is if Red Bull not merely closes the gap, but actually becomes the fastest team.
Of course, if that happens, my 46 on them for the Constructors' would look a bit less daft
Mr. 43, losing influence for nothing reminds me of Brown ignoring a manifesto pledge to sign away vetoes in Lisbon.
Time will tell whether we were right to vote to leave.0 -
I'm hoping la grenouille Miliband is Fillon and Le Pen.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, but who will be the French Camerons, and who will be les Milibands?
0 -
Yes I know, you start with a €300m/€60bn 'exit' bill, negotiate a settlement and walk away with little real fuss having paid considerably less.rkrkrk said:
I think Alastair is suggesting that the EU will offer a payment to cancel the contract early.chestnut said:
So, they walk away from rental obligations? What's good for the goose..AlastairMeeks said:<
If they need to, they'll negotiate with the landlord and cut a deal. If you think that will be anywhere near 300m, you're living in cloud cuckoo land.
Oh, you're a Leaver. Carry on.
As long as both parties agree it's no problem surely?
They may also prefer a negotiated arrangement where they pay absolutely nothing on London property in return for an obligations swap with the UK on leases across the existing EU0 -
They could always sell the lease. Isn't that how these things usually work?chestnut said:AlastairMeeks said:
So anything that the EU negotiate with the landlord will have zero relevance to the UK's position.chestnut said:
The landlord is the landlord. Presumably there is a contract, for example a 25 year one at £10.5 m per annum with no break clauses until 2040.AlastairMeeks said:
Why? Is the UK government the landlord?chestnut said:
I suppose not, providing the landlord is happy with it. It makes for a happy precedent on any claims they wish to make on us for rentals on the continent.AlastairMeeks said:
Is there any reason why the EU can't sublet or assign?chestnut said:The EU just need to make sure they pay their €300m divorce bill on the lease.
You seem to think that you have a point. Perhaps you can have another go at expressing it?
The EU's negotiating position is that the costs of divorce and settlement need to be agreed.AlastairMeeks said:
So anything that the EU negotiate with the landlord will have zero relevance to the UK's position.chestnut said:
The landlord is the landlord. Presumably there is a contract, for example a 25 year one at £10.5 m per annum with no break clauses until 2040.AlastairMeeks said:
Why? Is the UK government the landlord?chestnut said:
I suppose not, providing the landlord is happy with it. It makes for a happy precedent on any claims they wish to make on us for rentals on the continent.AlastairMeeks said:
Is there any reason why the EU can't sublet or assign?chestnut said:The EU just need to make sure they pay their €300m divorce bill on the lease.
This property has a 25 year lease on it until 2040, cumulative cost around 300m.
Using their preferred division of responsibility, they owe around 85% of the 300m bill on a property this almost certainly wish to vacate.
That leaves them with a problem. Honouring obligations and not cherry picking cuts both ways.0 -
In the world of Chestnut there's no such thing as novation.david_herdson said:
They could always sell the lease. Isn't that how these things usually work?chestnut said:AlastairMeeks said:
So anything that the EU negotiate with the landlord will have zero relevance to the UK's position.chestnut said:
The landlord is the landlord. Presumably there is a contract, for example a 25 year one at £10.5 m per annum with no break clauses until 2040.AlastairMeeks said:
Why? Is the UK government the landlord?chestnut said:
I suppose not, providing the landlord is happy with it. It makes for a happy precedent on any claims they wish to make on us for rentals on the continent.AlastairMeeks said:
Is there any reason why the EU can't sublet or assign?chestnut said:The EU just need to make sure they pay their €300m divorce bill on the lease.
You seem to think that you have a point. Perhaps you can have another go at expressing it?
The EU's negotiating position is that the costs of divorce and settlement need to be agreed.AlastairMeeks said:
So anything that the EU negotiate with the landlord will have zero relevance to the UK's position.chestnut said:
The landlord is the landlord. Presumably there is a contract, for example a 25 year one at £10.5 m per annum with no break clauses until 2040.AlastairMeeks said:
Why? Is the UK government the landlord?chestnut said:
I suppose not, providing the landlord is happy with it. It makes for a happy precedent on any claims they wish to make on us for rentals on the continent.AlastairMeeks said:
Is there any reason why the EU can't sublet or assign?chestnut said:The EU just need to make sure they pay their €300m divorce bill on the lease.
This property has a 25 year lease on it until 2040, cumulative cost around 300m.
Using their preferred division of responsibility, they owe around 85% of the 300m bill on a property this almost certainly wish to vacate.
That leaves them with a problem. Honouring obligations and not cherry picking cuts both ways.0 -
Another successful interview resulting in positive headlines....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/18/jeremy-corbyn-says-cant-name-one-mistake-made-have-many-reveals/0 -
I truly cannot understand why Le Pen is considered favourite to come first still. Her momentum for the past month has been on a steady downward trajectory and whereas a month or so ago she was heading virtually every poll, over the past week a poll showing her actually leading is a rarity.foxinsoxuk said:Macron either first or second wins him the presidency. He has the sane and not a crook vote sewn up. As he is either top or neck and neck with Le Pen the 3.45 at BF for first does look good value. I can see the undecideds breaking for him.
The French party system is well an truly smashed, at least at presidential level.
If you discount one of the other two coming through on the rails to take first place on sunday, then the odds should surely be a lot closer between Macron and Le Pen.
The mantra that Le Pen will win and get smashed in the final round is something that has been engrained in the psyche of these markets ever since they opened. For most of the past year, the polls have supported this belief, but not any more.
Some people may justify her favouritism in the market to come first by pointing to her high "certainty to vote" percentage. Well that has been consistent at around 84% and yet she has lost around 20% of her support in the past month, coming down from a high of 27% to 22-22.5%, so it would indicate that the 84% who were certain to vote for her were obviously not that certain!!0 -
Mr. Eagles, sacre bleu! Je ne voudrais pas Melenchon dans le deuxieme, er, round!0
-
I'm sure offloading the lease will be uppermost in their thoughts.david_herdson said:
They could always sell the lease. Isn't that how these things usually work?chestnut said:AlastairMeeks said:
So anything that the EU negotiate with the landlord will have zero relevance to the UK's position.chestnut said:
The landlord is the landlord. Presumably there is a contract, for example a 25 year one at £10.5 m per annum with no break clauses until 2040.AlastairMeeks said:
Why? Is the UK government the landlord?chestnut said:
I suppose not, providing the landlord is happy with it. It makes for a happy precedent on any claims they wish to make on us for rentals on the continent.AlastairMeeks said:
Is there any reason why the EU can't sublet or assign?chestnut said:The EU just need to make sure they pay their €300m divorce bill on the lease.
You seem to think that you have a point. Perhaps you can have another go at expressing it?
The EU's negotiating position is that the costs of divorce and settlement need to be agreed.AlastairMeeks said:
So anything that the EU negotiate with the landlord will have zero relevance to the UK's position.chestnut said:
The landlord is the landlord. Presumably there is a contract, for example a 25 year one at £10.5 m per annum with no break clauses until 2040.AlastairMeeks said:
Why? Is the UK government the landlord?chestnut said:
I suppose not, providing the landlord is happy with it. It makes for a happy precedent on any claims they wish to make on us for rentals on the continent.AlastairMeeks said:
Is there any reason why the EU can't sublet or assign?chestnut said:The EU just need to make sure they pay their €300m divorce bill on the lease.
This property has a 25 year lease on it until 2040, cumulative cost around 300m.
Using their preferred division of responsibility, they owe around 85% of the 300m bill on a property this almost certainly wish to vacate.
That leaves them with a problem. Honouring obligations and not cherry picking cuts both ways.0 -
Impossible Eagles - you liar.TheScreamingEagles said:
In the world of Chestnut there's no such thing as novation.david_herdson said:
They could always sell the lease. Isn't that how these things usually work?chestnut said:AlastairMeeks said:
So anything that the EU negotiate with the landlord will have zero relevance to the UK's position.chestnut said:
The landlord is the landlord. Presumably there is a contract, for example a 25 year one at £10.5 m per annum with no break clauses until 2040.AlastairMeeks said:
Why? Is the UK government the landlord?chestnut said:
I suppose not, providing the landlord is happy with it. It makes for a happy precedent on any claims they wish to make on us for rentals on the continent.AlastairMeeks said:
Is there any reason why the EU can't sublet or assign?chestnut said:The EU just need to make sure they pay their €300m divorce bill on the lease.
You seem to think that you have a point. Perhaps you can have another go at expressing it?
The EU's negotiating position is that the costs of divorce and settlement need to be agreed.AlastairMeeks said:
So anything that the EU negotiate with the landlord will have zero relevance to the UK's position.chestnut said:
The landlord is the landlord. Presumably there is a contract, for example a 25 year one at £10.5 m per annum with no break clauses until 2040.AlastairMeeks said:
Why? Is the UK government the landlord?chestnut said:
I suppose not, providing the landlord is happy with it. It makes for a happy precedent on any claims they wish to make on us for rentals on the continent.AlastairMeeks said:
Is there any reason why the EU can't sublet or assign?chestnut said:The EU just need to make sure they pay their €300m divorce bill on the lease.
This property has a 25 year lease on it until 2040, cumulative cost around 300m.
Using their preferred division of responsibility, they owe around 85% of the 300m bill on a property this almost certainly wish to vacate.
That leaves them with a problem. Honouring obligations and not cherry picking cuts both ways.
The landlord will not settle, he will need to hang on to every penny.
Brexit will cause all of London to collapse, all London properties will stand empty for decades, there will be no demand for property, all the bankers will be in Luxemburg etc ....0 -
You can see why jezza has never had a proper job, in answer to the classic interview question "tell us your biggest weakness" he would answer oh I have far too many weaknesses to be able to choose!0
-
If Le Pen doesn't make the second round this time (I think she will, but it is certainly the case that her campaign has been lackluster these last couple weeks), I think the FN will be finished as a contender for Presidential elections in the near future. MLP's programme, going for the generic populist party approach (statist, anti-EU, etc), is not popular with FN activists, but as long as she is winning she has a mandate and authority over her party. If she loses, after expectations having been so highly raised. The Marion-Marechal wing of the party, more in the form of Jean Marie, will re-takeover the agenda - returning the FN to a socially conservative catholic ultra movement. Popular with members but not a winning presidential platform by any means.0
-
Macron is the Cameron, the only Tory Leader to win an election in a quarter century, with his positive vision for the country at the heart of European culture.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, but who will be the French Camerons, and who will be les Milibands?
I am not sure that there is a French Miliband. Has Hamon had a #Hamonstone?0 -
On thread, regarding Macron's lack of a party base.
"Getting out the vote" is very different in France (from either US or UK) because canvassing is totally illegal.
The parties are only authorized to keep e-mail addresses and mobile numbers from members and people who volunteer their details online. Contacting them on the day of voting (or at any time after Friday 11.59 pm) is considered campaigning and is forbidden. Offering lifts to the polling station is tolerated as long as it is not explicitly linked to a given candidate and if it is arranged beforehand.
Late campaigning is a very frequent cause for the cancellation of local elections.
0 -
Which is harder to understand: VPN, quantum time crystals or the French election?0
-
The PVV had by far the highest certainty to vote figures in the Dutch elections, and it didn't help them either.BudG said:
I truly cannot understand why Le Pen is considered favourite to come first still. Her momentum for the past month has been on a steady downward trajectory and whereas a month or so ago she was heading virtually every poll, over the past week a poll showing her actually leading is a rarity.foxinsoxuk said:Macron either first or second wins him the presidency. He has the sane and not a crook vote sewn up. As he is either top or neck and neck with Le Pen the 3.45 at BF for first does look good value. I can see the undecideds breaking for him.
The French party system is well an truly smashed, at least at presidential level.
If you discount one of the other two coming through on the rails to take first place on sunday, then the odds should surely be a lot closer between Macron and Le Pen.
The mantra that Le Pen will win and get smashed in the final round is something that has been engrained in the psyche of these markets ever since they opened. For most of the past year, the polls have supported this belief, but not any more.
Some people may justify her favouritism in the market to come first by pointing to her high "certainty to vote" percentage. Well that has been consistent at around 84% and yet she has lost around 20% of her support in the past month, coming down from a high of 27% to 22-22.5%, so it would indicate that the 84% who were certain to vote for her were obviously not that certain!!
I wonder if the rise of Melanchon will discourage people from 'making a statement', and voting Le Pen in the first round. Let's say you are a disgruntled, centre right, Frenchman. You think there's been too much Muslim immigration, and you're not keen on the Euro. At the same time, you believe the holocaust happened, you don't think Putin is the greatest thing since sliced bread, and you value managerial competence. You'd planned to vote Le Pen in round one to make it clear to the politicians that you care about these things, even if didn't really want her as President. The rise of Melachon makes the 'free kicking of the establishment' much harder: the last thing you want is either Le Pen or Melachon to actually end up President. So maybe now you hold your nose and vote Fillon, or even Macron.
Anyway, it's just a theory.0
