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surbiton said:

calum said:

surbiton said:

Labour's recovery is predicated on two distinct decisions:

1. Ousting Corbyn

2. SLAB becomes a distinct political party in Scotland [ like the SDLP in NI or electorally speaking as distinct from politically, like the CSU ] even with Scotland still in the UK.

SLAB could decide on its own Independence policy. If it wants to survive as an entity it has only one choice. Why should a left of centre pro-independence voter choose Labour today ?

SLAB's in terminal decline:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/04/labour-should-stop-indulging-its-scottish-party-and-broker-progressive

Of course, a party in "terminal decline" cannot accept that fate otherwise there would be no point in being. The hard-core Labour vote departed for the SNP because:

1. The SNP has left wing policies and delivers on them.

2. They are pro-independence.

Why should a Unionist vote Labour today ? Yes, 15% do and that is where it will stay.

SLAB has to be become pro-independence.

Precisely the opposite, if SLAB become pro independence their remaining unionist voters will defect en masse to the Scottish Tories and Scottish LDs while they will recapture virtually no pro independence voters from the SNP

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

calum said:

surbiton said:

Labour's recovery is predicated on two distinct decisions:

1. Ousting Corbyn

2. SLAB becomes a distinct political party in Scotland [ like the SDLP in NI or electorally speaking as distinct from politically, like the CSU ] even with Scotland still in the UK.

SLAB could decide on its own Independence policy. If it wants to survive as an entity it has only one choice. Why should a left of centre pro-independence voter choose Labour today ?

SLAB's in terminal decline:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/04/labour-should-stop-indulging-its-scottish-party-and-broker-progressive

Of course, a party in "terminal decline" cannot accept that fate otherwise there would be no point in being. The hard-core Labour vote departed for the SNP because:

1. The SNP has left wing policies and delivers on them.

2. They are pro-independence.

Why should a Unionist vote Labour today ? Yes, 15% do and that is where it will stay.

SLAB has to be become pro-independence.

Precisely the opposite, if SLAB become pro independence their remaining unionist voters will defect en masse to the Scottish Tories and Scottish LDs while they will recapture virtually no pro independence voters from the SNP

I think so too. What is the point of another left wing pro independence party. There already are the SNP, Scottish Greens and a few tiddlers? SLAB needs to stay Unionist.

Cyan said:

foxinsoxuk said:

I suspect that the North Korean troops will fold like Saddams in the Gulf wars.

I don't.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wP35YKjHPkc

They wouldn't fold, but they would be massacred if they launched a mass attack. If it came to war, decapitation of the leadership would hopefully prevent mass casualties at the foot soldier level.

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

calum said:

surbiton said:

Labour's recovery is predicated on two distinct decisions:

1. Ousting Corbyn

2. SLAB becomes a distinct political party in Scotland [ like the SDLP in NI or electorally speaking as distinct from politically, like the CSU ] even with Scotland still in the UK.

SLAB could decide on its own Independence policy. If it wants to survive as an entity it has only one choice. Why should a left of centre pro-independence voter choose Labour today ?

SLAB's in terminal decline:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/04/labour-should-stop-indulging-its-scottish-party-and-broker-progressive

Of course, a party in "terminal decline" cannot accept that fate otherwise there would be no point in being. The hard-core Labour vote departed for the SNP because:

1. The SNP has left wing policies and delivers on them.

2. They are pro-independence.

Why should a Unionist vote Labour today ? Yes, 15% do and that is where it will stay.

SLAB has to be become pro-independence.

Precisely the opposite, if SLAB become pro independence their remaining unionist voters will defect en masse to the Scottish Tories and Scottish LDs while they will recapture virtually no pro independence voters from the SNP

FWIW their support is already defecting - 10% is within their grasp !

Pulpstar said:

HYUFD said:

MikeL said:

Looks as if Le Pen is falling back a bit.

If so, might it be that some of her supporters think she can't win the Final so are switching to their 2nd choice (presumably largely Melenchon) who will have a better chance in the Final.

I was initially surprised that Melenchon rates so well in the run-off match-ups - presumably this is because he gets a lot of support from Le Pen voters?

Le Pen still polls about 22 to 24% in virtually every poll which would be more than enough to reach the runoff

So does Macron

Which is why Macron v Le Pen remains the runoff favourite

surbiton said:

Piddle Valley: Even against only one candidate, the Tories managed to lose vote share.

Yes, the SE and SW council elections are going to be interesting. How solid is the Tory hegemony?

surbiton said:

calum said:

surbiton said:

Labour's recovery is predicated on two distinct decisions:

1. Ousting Corbyn

2. SLAB becomes a distinct political party in Scotland [ like the SDLP in NI or electorally speaking as distinct from politically, like the CSU ] even with Scotland still in the UK.

SLAB could decide on its own Independence policy. If it wants to survive as an entity it has only one choice. Why should a left of centre pro-independence voter choose Labour today ?

SLAB's in terminal decline:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/04/labour-should-stop-indulging-its-scottish-party-and-broker-progressive

Of course, a party in "terminal decline" cannot accept that fate otherwise there would be no point in being. The hard-core Labour vote departed for the SNP because:

1. The SNP has left wing policies and delivers on them.

2. They are pro-independence.

Why should a Unionist vote Labour today ? Yes, 15% do and that is where it will stay.

SLAB has to be become pro-independence.

Agreed - but it won't - SLAB's lost it's way:

http://www.scottishlabour.org.uk/pages/history

surbiton said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

calum said:

surbiton said:

Labour's recovery is predicated on two distinct decisions:

1. Ousting Corbyn

2. SLAB becomes a distinct political party in Scotland [ like the SDLP in NI or electorally speaking as distinct from politically, like the CSU ] even with Scotland still in the UK.

SLAB could decide on its own Independence policy. If it wants to survive as an entity it has only one choice. Why should a left of centre pro-independence voter choose Labour today ?

SLAB's in terminal decline:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/04/labour-should-stop-indulging-its-scottish-party-and-broker-progressive

Of course, a party in "terminal decline" cannot accept that fate otherwise there would be no point in being. The hard-core Labour vote departed for the SNP because:

1. The SNP has left wing policies and delivers on them.

2. They are pro-independence.

Why should a Unionist vote Labour today ? Yes, 15% do and that is where it will stay.

SLAB has to be become pro-independence.

Precisely the opposite, if SLAB become pro independence their remaining unionist voters will defect en masse to the Scottish Tories and Scottish LDs while they will recapture virtually no pro independence voters from the SNP

I think so too. What is the point of another left wing pro independence party. There already are the SNP, Scottish Greens and a few tiddlers? SLAB needs to stay Unionist.

Then SLAB could become irrelevant within this parliament if it is not already.

There is the future as well. After independence, which I support, the SNP will over time break up. The Left in Scotland will need a home.

So do you think that SLAB will come third in the LG elections in May?

I have know on the ground knowledge, so asking as a genuine question.

foxinsoxuk said:

surbiton said:

Piddle Valley: Even against only one candidate, the Tories managed to lose vote share.

Yes, the SE and SW council elections are going to be interesting. How solid is the Tory hegemony?

I find it hard to predict - looking at just a council I know well, even on a very very good night for opposition its hard to see the Tory majority being threatened, let alone being lost. Of course these are low turnout elections, it's always possible what look like rock solid areas could shift en masse, but it so hard to see.

Ishmael_Z said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Cyan said:

foxinsoxuk said:

I suspect that the North Korean troops will fold like Saddams in the Gulf wars.

I don't.

https://ww.youtube.com/watch?v=wP35YKjHPkc

Better choreography than Saddam, but weapon systems are vintage, apart from a couple of missiles.

If they fight they will be slaughtered, I feel almost sorry for them.

Figures from wikipedia - US military budget $1676 bn NorK $6 bn

OTOH NorK Korean People's Army manpower 5,889,000 US 1,281,900 plus 801,200 reserves. NorK all conscript, US all volunteer.

The end result isn't in doubt, but how we get there would be interesting.

Interesting from a distance!

South Korea's forces are pretty solid too. I suspect the competence and morale of the conscripts. Saddam had a good army on paper too.

The biggest problem is terrain. Open desert is much better for air and tank warfare than Korea's mountains.

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

ydoethur said:

justin124 said:

I agree with you re- the likes of Cat Smith and would expect little change at all were such a person to take over. As far as charisma is concerned, I suspect for now that is not what the electorate is looking for. Theresa May is hardly charismatic and I suspect that fits the national mood quite well and explains why quite a few non - Tories such as myself have warmed to her.We have had too many shysters such as Blair and Cameron.

Well - perhaps. But I think it's much easier for a PM to get away with a lack of charisma because while in office they can show unflappable competence and that gets attention. (Well, maybe that's an exaggeration in May's case but as PM she's always news. She doesn't have to go to the news channels, they come to her. She also doesn't have to say what she would do, she can just get on and do it.) As LotO, you need to find a way to attract that attention and get people to listen to you, because you can't prove yourself by results. That's one reason I think why ultimately Ed Miliband, who was a poor speaker and communicator although he had a number of potentially good ideas, proved a failure while Blair and Cameron succeeded.

Ed Milliband was just too geeky and unable to connect.I suspect that people such as Yvette Cooper and Keir Starmer would do quite well up against Theresa May.

I could see Starmer as a Kinnock/Howard figure ie an effective opposition leader but not a PM. Someone like Umunna is more likely to be a future PM after another Labour defeat, the question is whether that is a humiliating Corbyn led defeat or a respectable Starmer (or similar) led defeat

I disagree . Umunna does not strike me as particularly authentic at all - and is rumoured to have skeletons waiting to be pulled out.

Umunna has charisma and is telegenic, Starmer is neither just more competent and a shade more centrist than Corbyn

Starmer is way to the right of Corbyn - probably close to Hilary Benn.
Umunna reaks of insincerity and I suspect he would not cope well with the pressures of leadership.

Starmer is Kinnockite Labour, Umunna is Blairite Labour and we all know which one of those won elections

I agree, but Kinnock was essential for Blair to get power. The next Labour leader is not going to be PM, but they will prepare the party for the one who will. Alternatively the party could implode like SLAB.

Which confirms Starmer as a Howard/Kinnock figure and Umunna as a Cameron/Blair figure

surbiton said:

BigRich said:

surbiton said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

calum said:

surbiton said:

Labour's recovery is predicated on two distinct decisions:

1. Ousting Corbyn

2. SLAB becomes a distinct political party in Scotland [ like the SDLP in NI or electorally speaking as distinct from politically, like the CSU ] even with Scotland still in the UK.

SLAB could decide on its own Independence policy. If it wants to survive as an entity it has only one choice. Why should a left of centre pro-independence voter choose Labour today ?

SLAB's in terminal decline:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/04/labour-should-stop-indulging-its-scottish-party-and-broker-progressive

Of course, a party in "terminal decline" cannot accept that fate otherwise there would be no point in being. The hard-core Labour vote departed for the SNP because:

1. The SNP has left wing policies and delivers on them.

2. They are pro-independence.

Why should a Unionist vote Labour today ? Yes, 15% do and that is where it will stay.

SLAB has to be become pro-independence.

Precisely the opposite, if SLAB become pro independence their remaining unionist voters will defect en masse to the Scottish Tories and Scottish LDs while they will recapture virtually no pro independence voters from the SNP

I think so too. What is the point of another left wing pro independence party. There already are the SNP, Scottish Greens and a few tiddlers? SLAB needs to stay Unionist.

Then SLAB could become irrelevant within this parliament if it is not already.

There is the future as well. After independence, which I support, the SNP will over time break up. The Left in Scotland will need a home.

So do you think that SLAB will come third in the LG elections in May?

I have know on the ground knowledge, so asking as a genuine question.

In Scotland, yes ! In England , no.

In the English County Council elections Labour will come third behind the Tories and LDs

Big_G_NorthWales said:

'Starmer vs Cooper would be a great leadership election'

Whoever it is labour really have little choice now but to select a female MP and for that reason Starmer is not going to win. As for Cooper she is a bit old school and someone from the 2010 - 2015 would be a better choice but few have had a chance to shine under the utter destructive leadership of Corbyn

Perhaps an Australian would appeal to Brexit Britain. Could they bring back Patricia Hewitt?

surbiton said:

Ishmael_Z said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Cyan said:

foxinsoxuk said:

I suspect that the North Korean troops will fold like Saddams in the Gulf wars.

I don't.

https://ww.youtube.com/watch?v=wP35YKjHPkc

Better choreography than Saddam, but weapon systems are vintage, apart from a couple of missiles.

If they fight they will be slaughtered, I feel almost sorry for them.

Figures from wikipedia - US military budget $1676 bn NorK $6 bn

OTOH NorK Korean People's Army manpower 5,889,000 US 1,281,900 plus 801,200 reserves. NorK all conscript, US all volunteer.

The end result isn't in doubt, but how we get there would be interesting.

Why do you think there will be a conventional fight ? They have built up a nuclear arsenal [ however, small ] for survival, not for fun. A small pop at Seoul from a mobile unit, they can easily do.

You should ask yourself a simple question: why didn't Bush or Obama just walk in ? It was and is not that simple.

Have NK created a nuclear warhead? creating a static one in a mine is very different to a compact missile delivered one.

Conventional missile and artillery attacks on Seoul from hardened sites may well be possible, but also exactly what the MOAB is designed to counter bombard.

surbiton said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

BigRich said:

surbiton said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

calum said:

surbiton said:

Labour's recovery is predicated on two distinct decisions:

1. Ousting Corbyn

2. SLAB becomes a distinct political party in Scotland [ like the SDLP in NI or electorally speaking as distinct from politically, like the CSU ] even with Scotland still in the UK.

SLAB could decide on its own Independence policy. If it wants to survive as an entity it has only one choice. Why should a left of centre pro-independence voter choose Labour today ?

SLAB's in terminal decline:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/04/labour-should-stop-indulging-its-scottish-party-and-broker-progressive

Of course, a party in "terminal decline" cannot accept that fate otherwise there would be no point in being. The hard-core Labour vote departed for the SNP because:

1. The SNP has left wing policies and delivers on them.

2. They are pro-independence.

Why should a Unionist vote Labour today ? Yes, 15% do and that is where it will stay.

SLAB has to be become pro-independence.

Precisely the opposite, if SLAB become pro independence their remaining unionist voters will defect en masse to the Scottish Tories and Scottish LDs while they will recapture virtually no pro independence voters from the SNP

I think so too. What is the point of another left wing pro independence party. There already are the SNP, Scottish Greens and a few tiddlers? SLAB needs to stay Unionist.

Then SLAB could become irrelevant within this parliament if it is not already.

There is the future as well. After independence, which I support, the SNP will over time break up. The Left in Scotland will need a home.

So do you think that SLAB will come third in the LG elections in May?

I have know on the ground knowledge, so asking as a genuine question.

In Scotland, yes ! In England , no.

In the English County Council elections Labour will come third behind the Tories and LDs

Not in the NEV.

That is a projection not actual votes cast

surbiton said:

BigRich said:

surbiton said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

calum said:

surbiton said:

Labour's recovery is predicated on two distinct decisions:

1. Ousting Corbyn

2. SLAB becomes a distinct political party in Scotland [ like the SDLP in NI or electorally speaking as distinct from politically, like the CSU ] even with Scotland still in the UK.

SLAB could decide on its own Independence policy. If it wants to survive as an entity it has only one choice. Why should a left of centre pro-independence voter choose Labour today ?

SLAB's in terminal decline:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/04/labour-should-stop-indulging-its-scottish-party-and-broker-progressive

Of course, a party in "terminal decline" cannot accept that fate otherwise there would be no point in being. The hard-core Labour vote departed for the SNP because:

1. The SNP has left wing policies and delivers on them.

2. They are pro-independence.

Why should a Unionist vote Labour today ? Yes, 15% do and that is where it will stay.

SLAB has to be become pro-independence.

Precisely the opposite, if SLAB become pro independence their remaining unionist voters will defect en masse to the Scottish Tories and Scottish LDs while they will recapture virtually no pro independence voters from the SNP

I think so too. What is the point of another left wing pro independence party. There already are the SNP, Scottish Greens and a few tiddlers? SLAB needs to stay Unionist.

Then SLAB could become irrelevant within this parliament if it is not already.

There is the future as well. After independence, which I support, the SNP will over time break up. The Left in Scotland will need a home.

So do you think that SLAB will come third in the LG elections in May?

I have know on the ground knowledge, so asking as a genuine question.

In Scotland, yes ! In England , no.

With my close family connections in Scotland it is clear that a second indy referendum is not the vote winner Nicola hopes for and there is no great appetite to divorce from the UK to attach to Brussels. Labour would make their final mistake if they changed course and backed Independence as that place is totally dominated by SNP and the Greens.

isam said:

https://twitter.com/DailyMailUK/status/852951101695561729

I think Kelvin is harsh on gorillas.

surbiton said:

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

'Starmer vs Cooper would be a great leadership election'

Whoever it is labour really have little choice now but to select a female MP and for that reason Starmer is not going to win. As for Cooper she is a bit old school and someone from the 2010 - 2015 would be a better choice but few have had a chance to shine under the utter destructive leadership of Corbyn

Perhaps an Australian would appeal to Brexit Britain. Could they bring back Patricia Hewitt?

If you want to go that far back, Harriet is still your best bet. Widely respected in the party.

I would agree with that but again her time and opportunity has come and gone

foxinsoxuk said:

another_richard said:

foxinsoxuk said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

ydoethur said:

Since 1980, only one Labour leader has managed to poll 35% or higher in a general election, in which time no fewer than five Labour leaders have fought elections. They will be starting from a low base as well and have their credibility shattered by years of infighting.

You keep saying that Labour has a chance of this, but practically everything tells against it. Labour have no coherent policy position (one of the reasons Corbyn won is because his opponents had no vision or imagination - while Corbyn's agenda is nonsensical it is at least distinctive). They have no significant intellectual or political figures left in their ranks, with the possible exception of Benn. They are faced with a Conservative leadership that is markedly more populist and also markedly less privileged than at any time in the last 25 years. They are also faced with a radical, long term and structural decline in their vote that leaves them vulnerable to pressure on the left as well.

I will say again - Corbyn is a serious problem. But he is not Labour's only problem. Electing him made matters worse, but the suggestion that a four point improvement on their 2015 position under current circumstances with any leader is merely wishful thinking. If they can get back to 33% and hold most of the seats they currently have they will have done very well.

Even if Labour did win 35%, the Tories would probably be on 43% or so.

If Labour gets to 35% at the GE it would mean that all current certainties have been turned totally on their heads. It would surely indicate that a very strong desire to get rid of the Tories had gripped the nation, so the LDs may well be getting tactical votes where they had a chance to unseat a Tory MP.

Historically, when the Labour vote goes up so does the LD's. The two run in tandem.

If you're referring to votes that's completely wrong:

2015 Lab +1.5%, LD -15.9%
2010 Lab -6.2%, LD +1.0%
2005 Lab -5.5%, LD +3.7%
2001 Lab -2.5% ,LD +1.5%
1997 Lab +8.8% ,LD -1.0%
1992 Lab +3.6%, LD -4.8%
1987 Lab +3.2%, ALL -2.8%
1983 Lab -9.3%, ALL +11.6%

If you're referring to MPs then its wrong 3/4 times:

1987 All down 1 MPs
1992 LD down 2 MPs
1997 LD up 28 MPs
2015 LD down 49 MPs

OK, I was wrong by being a bit too broadbrush. I meant seats rather than share, and the coupling is not complete, but to gain power LDs and Labour voters have to vote tactically. A tacit acceptance of that is needed.

That's fair enough - with the exception of 1945 whenever the Conservatives have lost power - 1923, 1929, 1964, 1974, 1997 - both Labour and the Libs gained MPs.

surbiton said:

SquareRoot said:

The very idea that the Tories made heavy weather against the Greens(according to the thread header) when there were no other candidates and that every anti tory vote went to the Greens ... is risible.

They lost 8% of the votes.

I bet some thought it a cast iron Tory win, so didn't bother to vote. Whichever way you splice it, easy win for the Tories. Where was the opposition? Answer NOWHERE

Big_G_NorthWales said:

surbiton said:

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

'Starmer vs Cooper would be a great leadership election'

Whoever it is labour really have little choice now but to select a female MP and for that reason Starmer is not going to win. As for Cooper she is a bit old school and someone from the 2010 - 2015 would be a better choice but few have had a chance to shine under the utter destructive leadership of Corbyn

Perhaps an Australian would appeal to Brexit Britain. Could they bring back Patricia Hewitt?

If you want to go that far back, Harriet is still your best bet. Widely respected in the party.

I would agree with that but again her time and opportunity has come and gone

Harriet Harperson? You cannot be serious.

Heavy weather.....

As well as their leader, I think Labour have 4 other problems:
1. Scotland - Labour has now become the third party there, in May it might become the 4th or even 5th party. It's very difficult for Labour to get a majority in England and Wales alone and the Tories will capitalise on any hint of a LAB/SNP pact.
2. The Lib/Dem recovery - They are now attracting significant numbers of Labour's right wing and a new leader will find it difficult to get them back before 2020.
3. The decline of UKIP - Not all UKIPers are part of a Tory reserve army, some voted Labour in the past and some would never vote for any of the main parties but if Mrs May can deliver a Brexit that ends automatic free movement and doesn't damage the economy too much then the Tories have more to gain from a UKIP decline than a new Labour leader who would almost certainly be someone who campaigned for remain.
4. Boundary changes - The number of MPs is set to be reduced by 50 and according to Baxter's website, even if the 2015 were to be repeated, Labour would lose 29 of these and the Tories only 12.

surbiton said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

ydoethur said:

justin124 said:

I agree with you re- the likes of Cat Smith and would expect little change at all were such a person to take over. As far as charisma is concerned, I suspect for now that is not what the electorate is looking for. Theresa May is hardly charismatic and I suspect that fits the national mood quite well and explains why quite a few non - Tories such as myself have warmed to her.We have had too many shysters such as Blair and Cameron.

Well - perhaps. But I think it's much easier for a PM to get away with a lack of charisma because while in office they can show unflappable competence and that gets attention. (Well, maybe that's an exaggeration in May's case but as PM she's always news. She doesn't have to go to the news channels, they come to her. She also doesn't have to say what she would do, she can just get on and do it.) As LotO, you need to find a way to attract that attention and get people to listen to you, because you can't prove yourself by results. That's one reason I think why ultimately Ed Miliband, who was a poor speaker and communicator although he had a number of potentially good ideas, proved a failure while Blair and Cameron succeeded.

.

I could see Starmer as a Kinnock/Howard figure ie an effective opposition leader but not a PM. Someone like Umunna is more likely to be a future PM after another Labour defeat, the question is whether that is a humiliating Corbyn led defeat or a respectable Starmer (or similar) led defeat

I disagree . Umunna does not strike me as particularly authentic at all - and is rumoured to have skeletons waiting to be pulled out.

Umunna has charisma and is telegenic, Starmer is neither just more competent and a shade more centrist than Corbyn

Starmer is way to the right of Corbyn - probably close to Hilary Benn.
Umunna reaks of insincerity and I suspect he would not cope well with the pressures of leadership.

Starmer is Kinnockite Labour, Umunna is Blairite Labour and we all know which one of those won elections

I agree, but Kinnock was essential for Blair to get power. The next Labour leader is not going to be PM, but they will prepare the party for the one who will. Alternatively the party could implode like SLAB.

Which confirms Starmer as a Howard/Kinnock figure and Umunna as a Cameron/Blair figure

Umunna will win nothing.

In 2025 he is most likely to win

foxinsoxuk said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

surbiton said:

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

'Starmer vs Cooper would be a great leadership election'

Whoever it is labour really have little choice now but to select a female MP and for that reason Starmer is not going to win. As for Cooper she is a bit old school and someone from the 2010 - 2015 would be a better choice but few have had a chance to shine under the utter destructive leadership of Corbyn

Perhaps an Australian would appeal to Brexit Britain. Could they bring back Patricia Hewitt?

If you want to go that far back, Harriet is still your best bet. Widely respected in the party.

I would agree with that but again her time and opportunity has come and gone

I am not so sure. She mostly performed well as caretaker, and is good in the Commons. She didn't handle the welfare cuts adroitly, but otherwise would be an effective person to clear up the mess. I think she would like to be Labours first permanent female leader. Followed by Jess Philipps...

Jon Ashworth remains my tip though.

I do not think the next labour leader will be male. It is becoming a political imperative for labour to have a female leader

Ishmael_Z said:

williamglenn said:

MarqueeMark said:

SquareRoot said:

The very idea that the Tories made heavy weather against the Greens(according to the thread header) when there were no other candidates and that every anti tory vote went to the Greens ... is risible.

There was no good news for the LibDems last night. So there has be an angle somewhere that means it was a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories.....

Every night on which the Article 50 timebomb is still ticking is a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories. It's just a question of degree.

You do realise that the Conservative party was officially neutral and that TMay was pro-Remain in the EU ref campaign, do you?

You do realise that they are in government and will carry the blame for the whole shambles?

Edit: Although I do think the Tory party will revert back to being pro-European in the long term.

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

HYUFD said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

ydoethur said:

justin124 said:

I agree with you re- the likes of Cat Smith and would expect little change at all were such a person to take over. As far as charisma is concerned, I suspect for now that is not what the electorate is looking for. Theresa May is hardly charismatic and I suspect that fits the national mood quite well and explains why quite a few non - Tories such as myself have warmed to her.We have had too many shysters such as Blair and Cameron.

.

.

I could see Starmer as a Kinnock/Howard figure ie an effective opposition leader but not a PM. Someone like Umunna is more likely to be a future PM after another Labour defeat, the question is whether that is a humiliating Corbyn led defeat or a respectable Starmer (or similar) led defeat

I disagree . Umunna does not strike me as particularly authentic at all - and is rumoured to have skeletons waiting to be pulled out.

Umunna has charisma and is telegenic, Starmer is neither just more competent and a shade more centrist than Corbyn

Starmer is way to the right of Corbyn - probably close to Hilary Benn.
Umunna reaks of insincerity and I suspect he would not cope well with the pressures of leadership.

Starmer is Kinnockite Labour, Umunna is Blairite Labour and we all know which one of those won elections

I agree, but Kinnock was essential for Blair to get power. The next Labour leader is not going to be PM, but they will prepare the party for the one who will. Alternatively the party could implode like SLAB.

Which confirms Starmer as a Howard/Kinnock figure and Umunna as a Cameron/Blair figure

Umunna will win nothing.

In 2025 he is most likely to win

Still that £700 trying to back him on Betfair...

williamglenn said:

Ishmael_Z said:

williamglenn said:

MarqueeMark said:

SquareRoot said:

The very idea that the Tories made heavy weather against the Greens(according to the thread header) when there were no other candidates and that every anti tory vote went to the Greens ... is risible.

There was no good news for the LibDems last night. So there has be an angle somewhere that means it was a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories.....

Every night on which the Article 50 timebomb is still ticking is a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories. It's just a question of degree.

You do realise that the Conservative party was officially neutral and that TMay was pro-Remain in the EU ref campaign, do you?

You do realise that they are in government and will carry the blame for the whole shambles?

Edit: Although I do think the Tory party will revert back to being pro-European in the long term.

You do realise nothing is a shambles.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

surbiton said:

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

'Starmer vs Cooper would be a great leadership election'

Whoever it is labour really have little choice now but to select a female MP and for that reason Starmer is not going to win. As for Cooper she is a bit old school and someone from the 2010 - 2015 would be a better choice but few have had a chance to shine under the utter destructive leadership of Corbyn

Perhaps an Australian would appeal to Brexit Britain. Could they bring back Patricia Hewitt?

If you want to go that far back, Harriet is still your best bet. Widely respected in the party.

I would agree with that but again her time and opportunity has come and gone

I am not so sure. She mostly performed well as caretaker, and is good in the Commons. She didn't handle the welfare cuts adroitly, but otherwise would be an effective person to clear up the mess. I think she would like to be Labours first permanent female leader. Followed by Jess Philipps...

Jon Ashworth remains my tip though.

I do not think the next labour leader will be male. It is becoming a political imperative for labour to have a female leader

How well have SLAB done with female leaders ?

williamglenn said:

Ishmael_Z said:

williamglenn said:

MarqueeMark said:

SquareRoot said:

The very idea that the Tories made heavy weather against the Greens(according to the thread header) when there were no other candidates and that every anti tory vote went to the Greens ... is risible.

There was no good news for the LibDems last night. So there has be an angle somewhere that means it was a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories.....

Every night on which the Article 50 timebomb is still ticking is a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories. It's just a question of degree.

You do realise that the Conservative party was officially neutral and that TMay was pro-Remain in the EU ref campaign, do you?

You do realise that they are in government and will carry the blame for the whole shambles?

Edit: Although I do think the Tory party will revert back to being pro-European in the long term.

You are going to be very disappointed when Theresa May delivers an EFTA style deal with some nod to free movement acceptable to the majority of the electorate and result in the loss of any indy2 referendum that may, and I say may, take place in Scotland and the end of Nicola's career

surbiton said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

BigRich said:

surbiton said:

foxinsoxuk said:

HYUFD said:

surbiton said:

calum said:

surbiton said:

Labour's recovery is predicated on two distinct decisions:

1. Ousting Corbyn

2. SLAB becomes a distinct political party in Scotland [ like the SDLP in NI or electorally speaking as distinct from politically, like the CSU ] even with Scotland still in the UK.

SLAB could decide on its own Independence policy. If it wants to survive as an entity it has only one choice. Why should a left of centre pro-independence voter choose Labour today ?

SLAB's in terminal decline:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/04/labour-should-stop-indulging-its-scottish-party-and-broker-progressive

Of course, a party in "terminal decline" cannot accept that fate otherwise there would be no point in being. The hard-core Labour vote departed for the SNP because:

1. The SNP has left wing policies and delivers on them.

2. They are pro-independence.

Why should a Unionist vote Labour today ? Yes, 15% do and that is where it will stay.

SLAB has to be become pro-independence.

Precisely the opposite, if SLAB become pro independence their remaining unionist voters will defect en masse to the Scottish Tories and Scottish LDs while they will recapture virtually no pro independence voters from the SNP

I think so too. What is the point of another left wing pro independence party. There already are the SNP, Scottish Greens and a few tiddlers? SLAB needs to stay Unionist.

Then SLAB could become irrelevant within this parliament if it is not already.

There is the future as well. After independence, which I support, the SNP will over time break up. The Left in Scotland will need a home.

So do you think that SLAB will come third in the LG elections in May?

I have know on the ground knowledge, so asking as a genuine question.

In Scotland, yes ! In England , no.

In the English County Council elections Labour will come third behind the Tories and LDs

Not in the NEV.

That is a projection not actual votes cast

Why would you expect Labour to do well in CC elections ? When did Labour win Hampshire ?

In 1993 Labour won the County Council elections and even in 2013 Ed Miliband managed second

DeClare said:

kle4 said:

DeClare said:

2. The Lib/Dem recovery - They are now attracting significant numbers of Labour's right wing
.

Is this proven or just assumed? Seems more likely any such voters will in any case return to Labour as soon as a new leader is elected.

It's my guess of course but we've seen plenty of Lib/Dem gains in local council by-elections and we will see plenty more on the 4th of May, but I feel that the LD decline in 2015 went too far and that the coalition has been forgiven and forgotten by some who abandoned them that time.
Some of the LD revival could be coming from disaffected Tory remainers, but more is coming from Labour's right wing I recon.

There may be some remainer conservatives attracted to the Lib Dems but there are many more UKIP going to the conservatives

DeClare said:

As well as their leader, I think Labour have 4 other problems:
1. Scotland - Labour has now become the third party there, in May it might become the 4th or even 5th party. It's very difficult for Labour to get a majority in England and Wales alone and the Tories will capitalise on any hint of a LAB/SNP pact.
2. The Lib/Dem recovery - They are now attracting significant numbers of Labour's right wing and a new leader will find it difficult to get them back before 2020.
3. The decline of UKIP - Not all UKIPers are part of a Tory reserve army, some voted Labour in the past and some would never vote for any of the main parties but if Mrs May can deliver a Brexit that ends automatic free movement and doesn't damage the economy too much then the Tories have more to gain from a UKIP decline than a new Labour leader who would almost certainly be someone who campaigned for remain.
4. Boundary changes - The number of MPs is set to be reduced by 50 and according to Baxter's website, even if the 2015 were to be repeated, Labour would lose 29 of these and the Tories only 12.

I think there is one more factor that is getting very little attention but will probably be fatal, IMO.

Money, and Union money in particular,

Despite what some say and many wish money is impotent in running a party and winning elections. Labour benefits to a huge amount from the trade unions, both donations and other money spent my the unions for the same end.

The Trade Union Act 2016 is not as big as some had expected, but will in the long term decimate union political funds.

Based on the number that bothered to vote in the last 2 leadership elections only about 80,000 union members are interested in labour party politics, but at the movement about 96% of the 4,000,000 still have money taken by the union to give to labour.

The Act will phase in an 'opt in' instead of an 'opt out' and I expect 90% to opt out. Labour, used to running with a big overheads and a big head count will probably struggle to manage. If labour can have it reversed in time they will be OK for a time, but if they lose in 2020, as is likely, it will be at lest 8 years, of 'opt in' and that will make a big difference.

to give an idea of the size, according the electoral commotion dater base, if it was not for Union donation (and short money) the Lib Dems would have had more donation that labour since the 2015 elections!!!

chestnut said:

williamglenn said:

Ishmael_Z said:

williamglenn said:

MarqueeMark said:

SquareRoot said:

The very idea that the Tories made heavy weather against the Greens(according to the thread header) when there were no other candidates and that every anti tory vote went to the Greens ... is risible.

There was no good news for the LibDems last night. So there has be an angle somewhere that means it was a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories.....

Every night on which the Article 50 timebomb is still ticking is a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories. It's just a question of degree.

You do realise that the Conservative party was officially neutral and that TMay was pro-Remain in the EU ref campaign, do you?

You do realise that they are in government and will carry the blame for the whole shambles?

If it goes awry, the EU will.

Oh, and Remainers, for constantly attempting to undermine the country.

I am not constantly underming the country, though happy to undermine tbe government. These are two very different things.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DeClare said:

kle4 said:

DeClare said:

2. The Lib/Dem recovery - They are now attracting significant numbers of Labour's right wing
.

Is this proven or just assumed? Seems more likely any such voters will in any case return to Labour as soon as a new leader is elected.

It's my guess of course but we've seen plenty of Lib/Dem gains in local council by-elections and we will see plenty more on the 4th of May, but I feel that the LD decline in 2015 went too far and that the coalition has been forgiven and forgotten by some who abandoned them that time.
Some of the LD revival could be coming from disaffected Tory remainers, but more is coming from Labour's right wing I recon.

There may be some remainer conservatives attracted to the Lib Dems but there are many more UKIP going to the conservatives

I agree

I'm a member of UKIP and I'm on the committee of my branch which is the 7th largest in the country, I used to be a Conservative and I don't see any Labour type people there at all.
Membership is in decline however and I nearly didn't renew my own membership this year, but in the end, I decided to continue for at least one more year.
After Brexit though, who knows what's going to happen but I've never voted Labour and I don't suppose many other UKIP members have recently either.

The Unionist brand in Scotland is a bizarre mix:

https://wingsoverscotland.com/blue-is-the-new-orange/

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pb brain trust...Does anybody have any suggestions for a graphic tablet which you plug into your pc, which I will only use for annotating documents, writing maths and creating organisation charts ie I won't be using it to create any art so don't need the pro level ones.

There's only one name in graphic tablets -Wacom. Choose one to match your budget, the cheapest small tablet and pen I can see now on Amazon is £55.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Wacom-CTL-471-Small-Graphic-Tablet/dp/B00NFQ3H3S/

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pb brain trust...Does anybody have any suggestions for a graphic tablet which you plug into your pc, which I will only use for annotating documents, writing maths and creating organisation charts ie I won't be using it to create any art so don't need the pro level ones.

There's only one name in graphic tablets -Wacom. Choose one to match your budget, the cheapest small tablet and pen I can see now on Amazon is £55.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Wacom-CTL-471-Small-Graphic-Tablet/dp/B00NFQ3H3S/

Are the cheap knockoff huion ones any good?

Sandpit said:

JC isn't standing down unless he's sure of handing over to one of his own, so unless he gets literally hit by a bus he (or one of his ilk) is the candidate in 2020.

Corbyn getting hit by a bus makes it more - rather than less - likely that one of his cabal runs in 2020.

"You should elect me in his memory..."

Does anybody track, locale government councillors defecting from one party to another?

We use LG by-elections as a reasonable if not prises proxy for how voters might vote in a GE, I am wondering if we could use councillors defecting as a proxy for activists moving party?

I think there has been a few UKIP to Con defections, I was wondering have there been any/many Lab to Lib-Dem defections?

justin124 said:

surbiton said:

williamglenn said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

'Starmer vs Cooper would be a great leadership election'

Whoever it is labour really have little choice now but to select a female MP and for that reason Starmer is not going to win. As for Cooper she is a bit old school and someone from the 2010 - 2015 would be a better choice but few have had a chance to shine under the utter destructive leadership of Corbyn

Perhaps an Australian would appeal to Brexit Britain. Could they bring back Patricia Hewitt?

If you want to go that far back, Harriet is still your best bet. Widely respected in the party.

Not by everybody. She bears the principal responsibility for Corbyn becoming Leader.

Thought that was Miliband's fault with his £3 membership fee

chestnut said:

williamglenn said:

Ishmael_Z said:

williamglenn said:

MarqueeMark said:

SquareRoot said:

The very idea that the Tories made heavy weather against the Greens(according to the thread header) when there were no other candidates and that every anti tory vote went to the Greens ... is risible.

There was no good news for the LibDems last night. So there has be an angle somewhere that means it was a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories.....

Every night on which the Article 50 timebomb is still ticking is a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories. It's just a question of degree.

You do realise that the Conservative party was officially neutral and that TMay was pro-Remain in the EU ref campaign, do you?

You do realise that they are in government and will carry the blame for the whole shambles?

If it goes awry, the EU will.

Oh, and Remainers, for constantly attempting to undermine the country.

This is why I coined the term "failing and blaming": it is more productive for LEAVErs to fail at negotiations and blame other people than it is to actually achieve something.

Pulpstar said:

Everyone up for the "Day of the sun" ?

It's raining in Pyongyang.