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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest locals: CON gains from LAB in Middlesbrough but makes heavy weather against the Greens in Dorset
Coulby Newham on Middlesbrough (Lab defence, resignation of sitting member) Result: Conservatives 501 (38% +12%), Labour 468 (35% -3%), Independent 318 (24% +1%), Green Party 32 (2%, no candidate at last election) Conservative GAIN from Labour with a majority of 33 (3%) on a swing of 7.5% from Lab to Con
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BBC had an interesting report on it, although I was amused when Stephen Sackur[sp] said "Our cover was blown."
Of course it was. You were with the mother of an incarcerated man, who was shouting at the prison. The guards aren't deaf.
Hmm. More cooling may be required.
By surrendering we unleash the lawyers. North Korea, I'm guessing has few lawyers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rg2z4pmmY18
Conservative GAIN from Labour
I wonder how many times we will hear that on GE night in 2020 ?
Con gain Bootle?
BVA
Macron 23 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 20 (+1)
Melenchon 20 (+1)
http://orig.lanouvellerepublique.fr/France-Monde/Actualite/Politique/n/Contenus/Articles/2017/04/14/Sondage-BVA-PQR-Macron-devant-Le-Pen-Melenchon-et-Fillon-au-coude-a-coude-3068275
ifop daily rolling poll
Le Pen 23 (-0.5)
Macron 22.5 (=)
Fillon 19 (=)
Melenchon 19 (=)
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_14-04-2017.pdf
China is taking steps, but it remains to be seen how effective they'll be. The Chinese do not want either a failed state or a US ally right on its border.
Interestingly, just like streaming increased music sales because people then know they want the object, I frequently sell antiquarian books to people because they've seen a section of it online and now know they want it...
Get rid of one fat pie eater and the world would be a better place* but the process of doing so seems to be beyond China and the USA combined.
*That is assuming the chap actually does have the power that is attributed to him. I am currently inclined to think he is more a figurehead and there are multiple competing groups behind the scenes (something like Henry VIII's court, perhaps).
A chain of collapse in the pie community is far better than a chain of escalation in the nuclear club.
Prancing Horse looking a little lame.
Intriguing and enlightening.
I genuinely don't know what the answer is. But I know that leftwingers who airily dismiss grammar schools are possibly as misinformed as rightwingers who blithely dismiss comprehensives. All systems are gamed. In London, especially so.
London schooling is NOT comprehensive. The remaining grammar schools, meanwhile, are becoming eerie racial ghettos. Henrietta Barnett is not alone.
Tentatively, I think it's at least worth experimenting with grammars in the most deprived areas of post-industrial England and Wales.
I don't think there is one answer, which is why I'm a pluralist when it comes to education. (Also, given that the state imposes, by force of law, well over a decade of daytime detention on every child, they should at least allow some variety...)
The other lesson to draw is that pretty well all education, unless your parents are wealthy, is local. National politicians would do well to remember that.
Mr. 86, oh, pish. Next you'll be saying that happened before the 2015 UK General Election.
What with it being a holiday and all here's an aimless anecdote. I was in Oxford and as you do went on the bus tour. Saw the Four Candles Wetherspoons in honour of Ronnie Barker and all the various colleges and museums. As we'd go past each college the guide would give us a little information. That's Somerville College where former prime minister Margaret Thatcher studied, that's Lady Margaret Hall where current prime minister Theresa May studied and then as we came to the next building he stated 'and if there are any fans of Strictly Come Dancing aboard, that there is Keble College, where Ed Balls studied.'
I smiled as he said it but it felt a bit disconcerting to be reminded of how irrelevant the Labour Party has become. That obviously for most people, even on an Oxford bus tour, Ed Balls is the guy off Strictly, not a politician.
Vettel is back out; he may just have been doing a fuel test and run dry - not unusual in FP.
Though the Ferrari comments don't necessarily support that.
Essential for non-fiction.
Verstappen reportedly fastest on super softs but that must be with heavy fuel.
I have just had to replace my kindle, the last one died after a long and useful life. I am struggling with the new one with its wretched touch screen and no apparent way of organising books.
Can someone.. anyone (except HYUFD) betting on Le Pen, please explain why or how she is going to win this?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/14/jean-luc-melenchonpromises-no-red-army-tanks-france-wins-presidency/
I doubt that Macron will make it to the last two, but if he does, and his opponent is Mélenchon, I don't even expect Le Pen herself to advocate a vote for the fidgeting pro-Merkel centrist.
Granted, a Dupont-Aignan-gasm now looks extremely unlikely. But the odds were fantastic
Are we sure he's actually a Frenchman?
On those MOE bars the value bet is Macron to come top in the first round.
You keep saying that Labour has a chance of this, but practically everything tells against it. Labour have no coherent policy position (one of the reasons Corbyn won is because his opponents had no vision or imagination - while Corbyn's agenda is nonsensical it is at least distinctive). They have no significant intellectual or political figures left in their ranks, with the possible exception of Benn. They are faced with a Conservative leadership that is markedly more populist and also markedly less privileged than at any time in the last 25 years. They are also faced with a radical, long term and structural decline in their vote that leaves them vulnerable to pressure on the left as well.
I will say again - Corbyn is a serious problem. But he is not Labour's only problem. Electing him made matters worse, but the suggestion that a four point improvement on their 2015 position under current circumstances is likely with any leader is merely wishful thinking. If they can get back to 33% and hold most of the seats they currently have they will have done very well.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.117179983
A referendum on either the Euro or leaving the EU would be far from nailed on for French Leavers.
She makes the runoff in every poll so far, but the gap between her and third place is down to just 2-3%.
On the one hand you insinuate that 2-3% is enough to get her into the second round and then on the other you try and justify how a 20% gap in the head to head polls is not insurmountable.
Can, even you, think that 7/2 is a fair reflection of her chances of hanging on to get into the runoff and then overturn a 20% gap in the head to head final?
I am not saying she hasn't got a chance, but 7/2??
They are in an extremely difficult position and that is quite separate from the fact that their leader makes Keith Joseph look sane and normal and General Melchett look intelligent.
Anyone know how postal votes work in France? have they gone out yet?
It could be that we'd see "swingback" working in Labour's favour in that case.
Good evening, everyone.
As things stand, that looks to be a vanishingly small possibility.