I think you guys are forgetting one simple fact. Kim has seen what has happened to Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi. Giving up nuclear and/or biological stuff didn't help. The moment they give up, the West will get them anyway.
And, they are prepared to use a small one if they have to and are still capable of doing so. After all, an all-out US attack will not eliminate every single mobile unit.
What they are holding out for is a "guarantee" that the regime will be safe until they die.
A "settlement" could be thus:
1. DPRK gives up nuclear weapons with a guarantee. The Party becomes like the Chinese Communist Party. In other words, totally capitalistic and an "Asian" dictatorship.
Trump flies in, signs the accord and declares that he has saved the world ! It would be partly true.
And a gradual take over by South Korea takes place over 30 years. Remember the Unification tax paid by west Germans ?
And so totally unrealistic. North Korea has serially negotiated away its nuclear programme since 1993, only to renege within 2 years each time. Why would it be different this time?
And the Kim family is not about Communism, it is about dynasty. WTF is in it for them to hand over power to the Communist Party?
Labour's recovery is predicated on two distinct decisions:
1. Ousting Corbyn
2. SLAB becomes a distinct political party in Scotland [ like the SDLP in NI or electorally speaking as distinct from politically, like the CSU ] even with Scotland still in the UK.
SLAB could decide on its own Independence policy. If it wants to survive as an entity it has only one choice. Why should a left of centre pro-independence voter choose Labour today ?
Of course, a party in "terminal decline" cannot accept that fate otherwise there would be no point in being. The hard-core Labour vote departed for the SNP because:
1. The SNP has left wing policies and delivers on them.
2. They are pro-independence.
Why should a Unionist vote Labour today ? Yes, 15% do and that is where it will stay.
SLAB has to be become pro-independence.
Precisely the opposite, if SLAB become pro independence their remaining unionist voters will defect en masse to the Scottish Tories and Scottish LDs while they will recapture virtually no pro independence voters from the SNP
I don't think tanks would be necessary to fight DPRK. If there is a "fight", it will be short and apocalyptic.
It must take a couple of weeks for them to get there.
We know that North Korea has nukes, but we do not yet know whether they have turned them into deliverable warheads.
Tanks may well be needed to take the smoking rubble. I suspect that the North Korean troops will fold like Saddams in the Gulf wars.
One for us to sit out though.
Doctor, If that was the case, this could have happened many years ago. They do have a mobile delivery system to launch a small one. And, those nutters are perfectly capable of nuking Seoul.
If you think from their point of view , why wouldn't they ? They have seen what has happened to Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi.
Labour's recovery is predicated on two distinct decisions:
1. Ousting Corbyn
2. SLAB becomes a distinct political party in Scotland [ like the SDLP in NI or electorally speaking as distinct from politically, like the CSU ] even with Scotland still in the UK.
SLAB could decide on its own Independence policy. If it wants to survive as an entity it has only one choice. Why should a left of centre pro-independence voter choose Labour today ?
Of course, a party in "terminal decline" cannot accept that fate otherwise there would be no point in being. The hard-core Labour vote departed for the SNP because:
1. The SNP has left wing policies and delivers on them.
2. They are pro-independence.
Why should a Unionist vote Labour today ? Yes, 15% do and that is where it will stay.
SLAB has to be become pro-independence.
Precisely the opposite, if SLAB become pro independence their remaining unionist voters will defect en masse to the Scottish Tories and Scottish LDs while they will recapture virtually no pro independence voters from the SNP
I think so too. What is the point of another left wing pro independence party. There already are the SNP, Scottish Greens and a few tiddlers? SLAB needs to stay Unionist.
I agree with you re- the likes of Cat Smith and would expect little change at all were such a person to take over. As far as charisma is concerned, I suspect for now that is not what the electorate is looking for. Theresa May is hardly charismatic and I suspect that fits the national mood quite well and explains why quite a few non - Tories such as myself have warmed to her.We have had too many shysters such as Blair and Cameron.
Well - perhaps. But I think it's much easier for a PM to get away with a lack of charisma because while in office they can show unflappable competence and that gets attention. (Well, maybe that's an exaggeration in May's case but as PM she's always news. She doesn't have to go to the news channels, they come to her. She also doesn't have to say what she would do, she can just get on and do it.) As LotO, you need to find a way to attract that attention and get people to listen to you, because you can't prove yourself by results. That's one reason I think why ultimately Ed Miliband, who was a poor speaker and communicator although he had a number of potentially good ideas, proved a failure while Blair and Cameron succeeded.
Ed Milliband was just too geeky and unable to connect.I suspect that people such as Yvette Cooper and Keir Starmer would do quite well up against Theresa May.
I could see Starmer as a Kinnock/Howard figure ie an effective opposition leader but not a PM. Someone like Umunna is more likely to be a future PM after another Labour defeat, the question is whether that is a humiliating Corbyn led defeat or a respectable Starmer (or similar) led defeat
I disagree . Umunna does not strike me as particularly authentic at all - and is rumoured to have skeletons waiting to be pulled out.
Umunna has charisma and is telegenic, Starmer is neither just more competent and a shade more centrist than Corbyn
Starmer is way to the right of Corbyn - probably close to Hilary Benn. Umunna reaks of insincerity and I suspect he would not cope well with the pressures of leadership.
Starmer is Kinnockite Labour, Umunna is Blairite Labour and we all know which one of those won elections
They wouldn't fold, but they would be massacred if they launched a mass attack. If it came to war, decapitation of the leadership would hopefully prevent mass casualties at the foot soldier level.
I think you guys are forgetting one simple fact. Kim has seen what has happened to Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi. Giving up nuclear and/or biological stuff didn't help. The moment they give up, the West will get them anyway.
And, they are prepared to use a small one if they have to and are still capable of doing so. After all, an all-out US attack will not eliminate every single mobile unit.
What they are holding out for is a "guarantee" that the regime will be safe until they die.
A "settlement" could be thus:
1. DPRK gives up nuclear weapons with a guarantee. The Party becomes like the Chinese Communist Party. In other words, totally capitalistic and an "Asian" dictatorship.
Trump flies in, signs the accord and declares that he has saved the world ! It would be partly true.
And a gradual take over by South Korea takes place over 30 years. Remember the Unification tax paid by west Germans ?
And so totally unrealistic. North Korea has serially negotiated away its nuclear programme since 1993, only to renege within 2 years each time. Why would it be different this time?
And the Kim family is not about Communism, it is about dynasty. WTF is in it for them to hand over power to the Communist Party?
Power [ to survive ] and not get lynched. What's communist about the Chinese Communist Party today ?
Because the UN will take over it's entire nuclear industry and South Korean troops will be in NK. After all, protection of top brass will be part of the deal.
Labour's recovery is predicated on two distinct decisions:
1. Ousting Corbyn
2. SLAB becomes a distinct political party in Scotland [ like the SDLP in NI or electorally speaking as distinct from politically, like the CSU ] even with Scotland still in the UK.
SLAB could decide on its own Independence policy. If it wants to survive as an entity it has only one choice. Why should a left of centre pro-independence voter choose Labour today ?
Of course, a party in "terminal decline" cannot accept that fate otherwise there would be no point in being. The hard-core Labour vote departed for the SNP because:
1. The SNP has left wing policies and delivers on them.
2. They are pro-independence.
Why should a Unionist vote Labour today ? Yes, 15% do and that is where it will stay.
SLAB has to be become pro-independence.
Precisely the opposite, if SLAB become pro independence their remaining unionist voters will defect en masse to the Scottish Tories and Scottish LDs while they will recapture virtually no pro independence voters from the SNP
FWIW their support is already defecting - 10% is within their grasp !
I agree with you re- the likes of Cat Smith and would expect little change at all were such a person to take over. As far as charisma is concerned, I suspect for now that is not what the electorate is looking for. Theresa May is hardly charismatic and I suspect that fits the national mood quite well and explains why quite a few non - Tories such as myself have warmed to her.We have had too many shysters such as Blair and Cameron.
Well - perhaps. But I think it's much easier for a PM to get away with a lack of charisma because while in office they can show unflappable competence and that gets attention. (Well, maybe that's an exaggeration in May's case but as PM she's always news. She doesn't have to go to the news channels, they come to her. She also doesn't have to say what she would do, she can just get on and do it.) As LotO, you need to find a way to attract that attention and get people to listen to you, because you can't prove yourself by results. That's one reason I think why ultimately Ed Miliband, who was a poor speaker and communicator although he had a number of potentially good ideas, proved a failure while Blair and Cameron succeeded.
Ed Milliband was just too geeky and unable to connect.I suspect that people such as Yvette Cooper and Keir Starmer would do quite well up against Theresa May.
I could see Starmer as a Kinnock/Howard figure ie an effective opposition leader but not a PM. Someone like Umunna is more likely to be a future PM after another Labour defeat, the question is whether that is a humiliating Corbyn led defeat or a respectable Starmer (or similar) led defeat
I disagree . Umunna does not strike me as particularly authentic at all - and is rumoured to have skeletons waiting to be pulled out.
Umunna has charisma, Starmer does not
Charisma? Really? He has several assets but charisma (or even personality) certainly isn't one of them.
Edit: I see you've now edited your comment to add "and telegenic". Yes, that's an asset. But charisma still isn't in the mix.
If so, might it be that some of her supporters think she can't win the Final so are switching to their 2nd choice (presumably largely Melenchon) who will have a better chance in the Final.
I was initially surprised that Melenchon rates so well in the run-off match-ups - presumably this is because he gets a lot of support from Le Pen voters?
Le Pen still polls about 22 to 24% in virtually every poll which would be more than enough to reach the runoff
So does Macron
Which is why Macron v Le Pen remains the runoff favourite
Labour's recovery is predicated on two distinct decisions:
1. Ousting Corbyn
2. SLAB becomes a distinct political party in Scotland [ like the SDLP in NI or electorally speaking as distinct from politically, like the CSU ] even with Scotland still in the UK.
SLAB could decide on its own Independence policy. If it wants to survive as an entity it has only one choice. Why should a left of centre pro-independence voter choose Labour today ?
Of course, a party in "terminal decline" cannot accept that fate otherwise there would be no point in being. The hard-core Labour vote departed for the SNP because:
1. The SNP has left wing policies and delivers on them.
2. They are pro-independence.
Why should a Unionist vote Labour today ? Yes, 15% do and that is where it will stay.
SLAB has to be become pro-independence.
Precisely the opposite, if SLAB become pro independence their remaining unionist voters will defect en masse to the Scottish Tories and Scottish LDs while they will recapture virtually no pro independence voters from the SNP
I think so too. What is the point of another left wing pro independence party. There already are the SNP, Scottish Greens and a few tiddlers? SLAB needs to stay Unionist.
Then SLAB could become irrelevant within this parliament if it is not already.
There is the future as well. After independence, which I support, the SNP will over time break up. The Left in Scotland will need a home.
Funny story in the Telegraph online today showing the PM acting as a race marshall in her constituency's Easter fun run and the runners taking a reverse turn to get a selfie with her and ruining their running times in the process.
More of the people in her high viz marshall jacket than ever George Osborne achieved in the numerous high viz jacket shots he had taken
I agree with you re- the likes of Cat Smith and would expect little change at all were such a person to take over. As far as charisma is concerned, I suspect for now that is not what the electorate is looking for. Theresa May is hardly charismatic and I suspect that fits the national mood quite well and explains why quite a few non - Tories such as myself have warmed to her.We have had too many shysters such as Blair and Cameron.
Well - perhaps. But I think it's much easier for a PM to get away with a lack of charisma because while in office they can show unflappable competence and that gets attention. (Well, maybe that's an exaggeration in May's case but as PM she's always news. She doesn't have to go to the news channels, they come to her. She also doesn't have to say what she would do, she can just get on and do it.) As LotO, you need to find a way to attract that attention and get people to listen to you, because you can't prove yourself by results. That's one reason I think why ultimately Ed Miliband, who was a poor speaker and communicator although he had a number of potentially good ideas, proved a failure while Blair and Cameron succeeded.
Ed Milliband was just too geeky and unable to connect.I suspect that people such as Yvette Cooper and Keir Starmer would do quite well up against Theresa May.
I could see Starmer as a Kinnock/Howard figure ie an effective opposition leader but not a PM. Someone like Umunna is more likely to be a future PM after another Labour defeat, the question is whether that is a humiliating Corbyn led defeat or a respectable Starmer (or similar) led defeat
I disagree . Umunna does not strike me as particularly authentic at all - and is rumoured to have skeletons waiting to be pulled out.
Umunna has charisma and is telegenic, Starmer is neither just more competent and a shade more centrist than Corbyn
Starmer is way to the right of Corbyn - probably close to Hilary Benn. Umunna reaks of insincerity and I suspect he would not cope well with the pressures of leadership.
Starmer is Kinnockite Labour, Umunna is Blairite Labour and we all know which one of those won elections
Starmer vs Cooper would be a great leadership election.
I agree with you re- the likes of Cat Smith and would expect little change at all were such a person to take over. As far as charisma is concerned, I suspect for now that is not what the electorate is looking for. Theresa May is hardly charismatic and I suspect that fits the national mood quite well and explains why quite a few non - Tories such as myself have warmed to her.We have had too many shysters such as Blair and Cameron.
Well - perhaps. But I think it's much easier for a PM to get away with a lack of charisma because while in office they can show unflappable competence and that gets attention. (Well, maybe that's an exaggeration in May's case but as PM she's always news. She doesn't have to go to the news channels, they come to her. She also doesn't have to say what she would do, she can just get on and do it.) As LotO, you need to find a way to attract that attention and get people to listen to you, because you can't prove yourself by results. That's one reason I think why ultimately Ed Miliband, who was a poor speaker and communicator although he had a number of potentially good ideas, proved a failure while Blair and Cameron succeeded.
Ed Milliband was just too geeky and unable to connect.I suspect that people such as Yvette Cooper and Keir Starmer would do quite well up against Theresa May.
I could see Starmer as a Kinnock/Howard figure ie an effective opposition leader but not a PM. Someone like Umunna is more likely to be a future PM after another Labour defeat, the question is whether that is a humiliating Corbyn led defeat or a respectable Starmer (or similar) led defeat
I disagree . Umunna does not strike me as particularly authentic at all - and is rumoured to have skeletons waiting to be pulled out.
Umunna has charisma and is telegenic, Starmer is neither just more competent and a shade more centrist than Corbyn
Starmer is way to the right of Corbyn - probably close to Hilary Benn. Umunna reaks of insincerity and I suspect he would not cope well with the pressures of leadership.
Starmer is Kinnockite Labour, Umunna is Blairite Labour and we all know which one of those won elections
I agree, but Kinnock was essential for Blair to get power. The next Labour leader is not going to be PM, but they will prepare the party for the one who will. Alternatively the party could implode like SLAB.
Labour's recovery is predicated on two distinct decisions:
1. Ousting Corbyn
2. SLAB becomes a distinct political party in Scotland [ like the SDLP in NI or electorally speaking as distinct from politically, like the CSU ] even with Scotland still in the UK.
SLAB could decide on its own Independence policy. If it wants to survive as an entity it has only one choice. Why should a left of centre pro-independence voter choose Labour today ?
Of course, a party in "terminal decline" cannot accept that fate otherwise there would be no point in being. The hard-core Labour vote departed for the SNP because:
1. The SNP has left wing policies and delivers on them.
2. They are pro-independence.
Why should a Unionist vote Labour today ? Yes, 15% do and that is where it will stay.
SLAB has to be become pro-independence.
Precisely the opposite, if SLAB become pro independence their remaining unionist voters will defect en masse to the Scottish Tories and Scottish LDs while they will recapture virtually no pro independence voters from the SNP
I think so too. What is the point of another left wing pro independence party. There already are the SNP, Scottish Greens and a few tiddlers? SLAB needs to stay Unionist.
Exactly and Kezia Dugdale is sensible enough to accept that, even in 2016 SLAB came second on the constituency vote as a unionist party, as a pro independence party they would have come 4th, maybe even 5th
Labour's recovery is predicated on two distinct decisions:
1. Ousting Corbyn
2. SLAB becomes a distinct political party in Scotland [ like the SDLP in NI or electorally speaking as distinct from politically, like the CSU ] even with Scotland still in the UK.
SLAB could decide on its own Independence policy. If it wants to survive as an entity it has only one choice. Why should a left of centre pro-independence voter choose Labour today ?
Of course, a party in "terminal decline" cannot accept that fate otherwise there would be no point in being. The hard-core Labour vote departed for the SNP because:
1. The SNP has left wing policies and delivers on them.
2. They are pro-independence.
Why should a Unionist vote Labour today ? Yes, 15% do and that is where it will stay.
SLAB has to be become pro-independence.
Precisely the opposite, if SLAB become pro independence their remaining unionist voters will defect en masse to the Scottish Tories and Scottish LDs while they will recapture virtually no pro independence voters from the SNP
I think so too. What is the point of another left wing pro independence party. There already are the SNP, Scottish Greens and a few tiddlers? SLAB needs to stay Unionist.
Then SLAB could become irrelevant within this parliament if it is not already.
There is the future as well. After independence, which I support, the SNP will over time break up. The Left in Scotland will need a home.
As virtually every poll shows No still ahead that is putting the cart before the horse not to mention there is no referendum happening imminently, even if Scotland became independent what is to stop the SNP becoming a Fianna Fail type party?
Labour's recovery is predicated on two distinct decisions:
1. Ousting Corbyn
2. SLAB becomes a distinct political party in Scotland [ like the SDLP in NI or electorally speaking as distinct from politically, like the CSU ] even with Scotland still in the UK.
SLAB could decide on its own Independence policy. If it wants to survive as an entity it has only one choice. Why should a left of centre pro-independence voter choose Labour today ?
Of course, a party in "terminal decline" cannot accept that fate otherwise there would be no point in being. The hard-core Labour vote departed for the SNP because:
1. The SNP has left wing policies and delivers on them.
2. They are pro-independence.
Why should a Unionist vote Labour today ? Yes, 15% do and that is where it will stay.
I agree with you re- the likes of Cat Smith and would expect little change at all were such a person to take over. As far as charisma is concerned, I suspect for now that is not what the electorate is looking for. Theresa May is hardly charismatic and I suspect that fits the national mood quite well and explains why quite a few non - Tories such as myself have warmed to her.We have had too many shysters such as Blair and Cameron.
Well - perhaps. But I think it's much easier for a PM to get away with a lack of charisma because while in office they can show unflappable competence and that gets attention. (Well, maybe that's an exaggeration in May's case but as PM she's always news. She doesn't have to go to the news channels, they come to her. She also doesn't have to say what she would do, she can just get on and do it.) As LotO, you need to find a way to attract that attention and get people to listen to you, because you can't prove yourself by results. That's one reason I think why ultimately Ed Miliband, who was a poor speaker and communicator although he had a number of potentially good ideas, proved a failure while Blair and Cameron succeeded.
Ed Milliband was just too geeky and unable to connect.I suspect that people such as Yvette Cooper and Keir Starmer would do quite well up against Theresa May.
I could see Starmer as a Kinnock/Howard figure ie an effective opposition leader but not a PM. Someone like Umunna is more likely to be a future PM after another Labour defeat, the question is whether that is a humiliating Corbyn led defeat or a respectable Starmer (or similar) led defeat
I disagree . Umunna does not strike me as particularly authentic at all - and is rumoured to have skeletons waiting to be pulled out.
Umunna has charisma and is telegenic, Starmer is neither just more competent and a shade more centrist than Corbyn
Starmer is way to the right of Corbyn - probably close to Hilary Benn. Umunna reaks of insincerity and I suspect he would not cope well with the pressures of leadership.
Starmer is Kinnockite Labour, Umunna is Blairite Labour and we all know which one of those won elections
Starmer vs Cooper would be a great leadership election.
Not going to happen, given one of them would have to beat Corbyn (or his preferred successor) in the ballot
Labour's recovery is predicated on two distinct decisions:
1. Ousting Corbyn
2. SLAB becomes a distinct political party in Scotland [ like the SDLP in NI or electorally speaking as distinct from politically, like the CSU ] even with Scotland still in the UK.
SLAB could decide on its own Independence policy. If it wants to survive as an entity it has only one choice. Why should a left of centre pro-independence voter choose Labour today ?
Of course, a party in "terminal decline" cannot accept that fate otherwise there would be no point in being. The hard-core Labour vote departed for the SNP because:
1. The SNP has left wing policies and delivers on them.
2. They are pro-independence.
Why should a Unionist vote Labour today ? Yes, 15% do and that is where it will stay.
SLAB has to be become pro-independence.
Precisely the opposite, if SLAB become pro independence their remaining unionist voters will defect en masse to the Scottish Tories and Scottish LDs while they will recapture virtually no pro independence voters from the SNP
I think so too. What is the point of another left wing pro independence party. There already are the SNP, Scottish Greens and a few tiddlers? SLAB needs to stay Unionist.
Then SLAB could become irrelevant within this parliament if it is not already.
There is the future as well. After independence, which I support, the SNP will over time break up. The Left in Scotland will need a home.
So do you think that SLAB will come third in the LG elections in May?
I have know on the ground knowledge, so asking as a genuine question.
Better choreography than Saddam, but weapon systems are vintage, apart from a couple of missiles.
If they fight they will be slaughtered, I feel almost sorry for them.
Figures from wikipedia - US military budget $1676 bn NorK $6 bn
OTOH NorK Korean People's Army manpower 5,889,000 US 1,281,900 plus 801,200 reserves. NorK all conscript, US all volunteer.
The end result isn't in doubt, but how we get there would be interesting.
Why do you think there will be a conventional fight ? They have built up a nuclear arsenal [ however, small ] for survival, not for fun. A small pop at Seoul from a mobile unit, they can easily do.
You should ask yourself a simple question: why didn't Bush or Obama just walk in ? It was and is not that simple.
Piddle Valley: Even against only one candidate, the Tories managed to lose vote share.
Yes, the SE and SW council elections are going to be interesting. How solid is the Tory hegemony?
I find it hard to predict - looking at just a council I know well, even on a very very good night for opposition its hard to see the Tory majority being threatened, let alone being lost. Of course these are low turnout elections, it's always possible what look like rock solid areas could shift en masse, but it so hard to see.
Labour's recovery is predicated on two distinct decisions:
1. Ousting Corbyn
2. SLAB becomes a distinct political party in Scotland [ like the SDLP in NI or electorally speaking as distinct from politically, like the CSU ] even with Scotland still in the UK.
SLAB could decide on its own Independence policy. If it wants to survive as an entity it has only one choice. Why should a left of centre pro-independence voter choose Labour today ?
Of course, a party in "terminal decline" cannot accept that fate otherwise there would be no point in being. The hard-core Labour vote departed for the SNP because:
1. The SNP has left wing policies and delivers on them.
2. They are pro-independence.
Why should a Unionist vote Labour today ? Yes, 15% do and that is where it will stay.
SLAB has to be become pro-independence.
Precisely the opposite, if SLAB become pro independence their remaining unionist voters will defect en masse to the Scottish Tories and Scottish LDs while they will recapture virtually no pro independence voters from the SNP
I think so too. What is the point of another left wing pro independence party. There already are the SNP, Scottish Greens and a few tiddlers? SLAB needs to stay Unionist.
Then SLAB could become irrelevant within this parliament if it is not already.
There is the future as well. After independence, which I support, the SNP will over time break up. The Left in Scotland will need a home.
So do you think that SLAB will come third in the LG elections in May?
I have know on the ground knowledge, so asking as a genuine question.
'Starmer vs Cooper would be a great leadership election'
Whoever it is labour really have little choice now but to select a female MP and for that reason Starmer is not going to win. As for Cooper she is a bit old school and someone from the 2010 - 2015 would be a better choice but few have had a chance to shine under the utter destructive leadership of Corbyn
I agree with you re- the likes of Cat Smith and would expect little change at all were such a person to take over. As far as charisma is concerned, I suspect for now that is not what the electorate is looking for. Theresa May is hardly charismatic and I suspect that fits the national mood quite well and explains why quite a few non - Tories such as myself have warmed to her.We have had too many shysters such as Blair and Cameron.
Well - perhaps. But I think it's much easier for a PM to get away with a lack of charisma because while in office they can show unflappable competence and that gets attention. (Well, maybe that's an exaggeration in May's case but as PM she's always news. She doesn't have to go to the news channels, they come to her. She also doesn't have to say what she would do, she can just get on and do it.) As LotO, you need to find a way to attract that attention and get people to listen to you, because you can't prove yourself by results. That's one reason I think why ultimately Ed Miliband, who was a poor speaker and communicator although he had a number of potentially good ideas, proved a failure while Blair and Cameron succeeded.
Ed Milliband was just too geeky and unable to connect.I suspect that people such as Yvette Cooper and Keir Starmer would do quite well up against Theresa May.
I could see Starmer as a Kinnock/Howard figure ie an effective opposition leader but not a PM. Someone like Umunna is more likely to be a future PM after another Labour defeat, the question is whether that is a humiliating Corbyn led defeat or a respectable Starmer (or similar) led defeat
I disagree . Umunna does not strike me as particularly authentic at all - and is rumoured to have skeletons waiting to be pulled out.
Umunna has charisma and is telegenic, Starmer is neither just more competent and a shade more centrist than Corbyn
Starmer is way to the right of Corbyn - probably close to Hilary Benn. Umunna reaks of insincerity and I suspect he would not cope well with the pressures of leadership.
Starmer is Kinnockite Labour, Umunna is Blairite Labour and we all know which one of those won elections
I agree, but Kinnock was essential for Blair to get power. The next Labour leader is not going to be PM, but they will prepare the party for the one who will. Alternatively the party could implode like SLAB.
Which confirms Starmer as a Howard/Kinnock figure and Umunna as a Cameron/Blair figure
I think you guys are forgetting one simple fact. Kim has seen what has happened to Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi. Giving up nuclear and/or biological stuff didn't help. The moment they give up, the West will get them anyway.
And, they are prepared to use a small one if they have to and are still capable of doing so. After all, an all-out US attack will not eliminate every single mobile unit.
What they are holding out for is a "guarantee" that the regime will be safe until they die.
A "settlement" could be thus:
1. DPRK gives up nuclear weapons with a guarantee. The Party becomes like the Chinese Communist Party. In other words, totally capitalistic and an "Asian" dictatorship.
Trump flies in, signs the accord and declares that he has saved the world ! It would be partly true.
Argentina, Brazil and South Africa all gave up any plans for nuclear weapons. None were subsequently invaded, although Reagan might have had to dissuade Thatcher from bombing Buenos Aires in 1982.
Labour's recovery is predicated on two distinct decisions:
1. Ousting Corbyn
2. SLAB becomes a distinct political party in Scotland [ like the SDLP in NI or electorally speaking as distinct from politically, like the CSU ] even with Scotland still in the UK.
SLAB could decide on its own Independence policy. If it wants to survive as an entity it has only one choice. Why should a left of centre pro-independence voter choose Labour today ?
Of course, a party in "terminal decline" cannot accept that fate otherwise there would be no point in being. The hard-core Labour vote departed for the SNP because:
1. The SNP has left wing policies and delivers on them.
2. They are pro-independence.
Why should a Unionist vote Labour today ? Yes, 15% do and that is where it will stay.
SLAB has to be become pro-independence.
Precisely the opposite, if SLAB become pro independence their remaining unionist voters will defect en masse to the Scottish Tories and Scottish LDs while they will recapture virtually no pro independence voters from the SNP
I think so too. What is the point of another left wing pro independence party. There already are the SNP, Scottish Greens and a few tiddlers? SLAB needs to stay Unionist.
Then SLAB could become irrelevant within this parliament if it is not already.
There is the future as well. After independence, which I support, the SNP will over time break up. The Left in Scotland will need a home.
So do you think that SLAB will come third in the LG elections in May?
I have know on the ground knowledge, so asking as a genuine question.
In Scotland, yes ! In England , no.
In the English County Council elections Labour will come third behind the Tories and LDs
Labour's recovery is predicated on two distinct decisions:
1. Ousting Corbyn
2. SLAB becomes a distinct political party in Scotland [ like the SDLP in NI or electorally speaking as distinct from politically, like the CSU ] even with Scotland still in the UK.
SLAB could decide on its own Independence policy. If it wants to survive as an entity it has only one choice. Why should a left of centre pro-independence voter choose Labour today ?
Of course, a party in "terminal decline" cannot accept that fate otherwise there would be no point in being. The hard-core Labour vote departed for the SNP because:
1. The SNP has left wing policies and delivers on them.
2. They are pro-independence.
Why should a Unionist vote Labour today ? Yes, 15% do and that is where it will stay.
I cannot understand why SLAB cannot be independent even within the UK. The CDU does not participate in Bavaria and the CSU does not put up candidates in the rest of Germany.
Labour has the same relationship with the SDLP in NI.
SLAB has to be distinct and seen to be such, at a very minimum.
'Starmer vs Cooper would be a great leadership election'
Whoever it is labour really have little choice now but to select a female MP and for that reason Starmer is not going to win. As for Cooper she is a bit old school and someone from the 2010 - 2015 would be a better choice but few have had a chance to shine under the utter destructive leadership of Corbyn
Perhaps an Australian would appeal to Brexit Britain. Could they bring back Patricia Hewitt?
Labour's recovery is predicated on two distinct decisions:
1. Ousting Corbyn
2. SLAB becomes a distinct political party in Scotland [ like the SDLP in NI or electorally speaking as distinct from politically, like the CSU ] even with Scotland still in the UK.
SLAB could decide on its own Independence policy. If it wants to survive as an entity it has only one choice. Why should a left of centre pro-independence voter choose Labour today ?
Of course, a party in "terminal decline" cannot accept that fate otherwise there would be no point in being. The hard-core Labour vote departed for the SNP because:
1. The SNP has left wing policies and delivers on them.
2. They are pro-independence.
Why should a Unionist vote Labour today ? Yes, 15% do and that is where it will stay.
SLAB has to be become pro-independence.
Precisely the opposite, if SLAB become pro independence their remaining unionist voters will defect en masse to the Scottish Tories and Scottish LDs while they will recapture virtually no pro independence voters from the SNP
I think so too. What is the point of another left wing pro independence party. There already are the SNP, Scottish Greens and a few tiddlers? SLAB needs to stay Unionist.
Then SLAB could become irrelevant within this parliament if it is not already.
There is the future as well. After independence, which I support, the SNP will over time break up. The Left in Scotland will need a home.
So do you think that SLAB will come third in the LG elections in May?
I have know on the ground knowledge, so asking as a genuine question.
In Scotland, yes ! In England , no.
In the English County Council elections Labour will come third behind the Tories and LDs
Better choreography than Saddam, but weapon systems are vintage, apart from a couple of missiles.
If they fight they will be slaughtered, I feel almost sorry for them.
Figures from wikipedia - US military budget $1676 bn NorK $6 bn
OTOH NorK Korean People's Army manpower 5,889,000 US 1,281,900 plus 801,200 reserves. NorK all conscript, US all volunteer.
The end result isn't in doubt, but how we get there would be interesting.
Why do you think there will be a conventional fight ? They have built up a nuclear arsenal [ however, small ] for survival, not for fun. A small pop at Seoul from a mobile unit, they can easily do.
You should ask yourself a simple question: why didn't Bush or Obama just walk in ? It was and is not that simple.
Have NK created a nuclear warhead? creating a static one in a mine is very different to a compact missile delivered one.
Conventional missile and artillery attacks on Seoul from hardened sites may well be possible, but also exactly what the MOAB is designed to counter bombard.
'Starmer vs Cooper would be a great leadership election'
Whoever it is labour really have little choice now but to select a female MP and for that reason Starmer is not going to win. As for Cooper she is a bit old school and someone from the 2010 - 2015 would be a better choice but few have had a chance to shine under the utter destructive leadership of Corbyn
Perhaps an Australian would appeal to Brexit Britain. Could they bring back Patricia Hewitt?
If you want to go that far back, Harriet is still your best bet. Widely respected in the party.
Labour's recovery is predicated on two distinct decisions:
1. Ousting Corbyn
2. SLAB becomes a distinct political party in Scotland [ like the SDLP in NI or electorally speaking as distinct from politically, like the CSU ] even with Scotland still in the UK.
SLAB could decide on its own Independence policy. If it wants to survive as an entity it has only one choice. Why should a left of centre pro-independence voter choose Labour today ?
Of course, a party in "terminal decline" cannot accept that fate otherwise there would be no point in being. The hard-core Labour vote departed for the SNP because:
1. The SNP has left wing policies and delivers on them.
2. They are pro-independence.
Why should a Unionist vote Labour today ? Yes, 15% do and that is where it will stay.
SLAB has to be become pro-independence.
Precisely the opposite, if SLAB become pro independence their remaining unionist voters will defect en masse to the Scottish Tories and Scottish LDs while they will recapture virtually no pro independence voters from the SNP
I think so too. What is the point of another left wing pro independence party. There already are the SNP, Scottish Greens and a few tiddlers? SLAB needs to stay Unionist.
Then SLAB could become irrelevant within this parliament if it is not already.
There is the future as well. After independence, which I support, the SNP will over time break up. The Left in Scotland will need a home.
So do you think that SLAB will come third in the LG elections in May?
I have know on the ground knowledge, so asking as a genuine question.
In Scotland, yes ! In England , no.
In the English County Council elections Labour will come third behind the Tories and LDs
The very idea that the Tories made heavy weather against the Greens(according to the thread header) when there were no other candidates and that every anti tory vote went to the Greens ... is risible.
Labour's recovery is predicated on two distinct decisions:
1. Ousting Corbyn
2. SLAB becomes a distinct political party in Scotland [ like the SDLP in NI or electorally speaking as distinct from politically, like the CSU ] even with Scotland still in the UK.
SLAB could decide on its own Independence policy. If it wants to survive as an entity it has only one choice. Why should a left of centre pro-independence voter choose Labour today ?
Of course, a party in "terminal decline" cannot accept that fate otherwise there would be no point in being. The hard-core Labour vote departed for the SNP because:
1. The SNP has left wing policies and delivers on them.
2. They are pro-independence.
Why should a Unionist vote Labour today ? Yes, 15% do and that is where it will stay.
SLAB has to be become pro-independence.
Precisely the opposite, if SLAB become pro independence their remaining unionist voters will defect en masse to the Scottish Tories and Scottish LDs while they will recapture virtually no pro independence voters from the SNP
I think so too. What is the point of another left wing pro independence party. There already are the SNP, Scottish Greens and a few tiddlers? SLAB needs to stay Unionist.
Then SLAB could become irrelevant within this parliament if it is not already.
There is the future as well. After independence, which I support, the SNP will over time break up. The Left in Scotland will need a home.
So do you think that SLAB will come third in the LG elections in May?
I have know on the ground knowledge, so asking as a genuine question.
In Scotland, yes ! In England , no.
With my close family connections in Scotland it is clear that a second indy referendum is not the vote winner Nicola hopes for and there is no great appetite to divorce from the UK to attach to Brussels. Labour would make their final mistake if they changed course and backed Independence as that place is totally dominated by SNP and the Greens.
I think you guys are forgetting one simple fact. Kim has seen what has happened to Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi. Giving up nuclear and/or biological stuff didn't help. The moment they give up, the West will get them anyway.
And, they are prepared to use a small one if they have to and are still capable of doing so. After all, an all-out US attack will not eliminate every single mobile unit.
What they are holding out for is a "guarantee" that the regime will be safe until they die.
A "settlement" could be thus:
1. DPRK gives up nuclear weapons with a guarantee. The Party becomes like the Chinese Communist Party. In other words, totally capitalistic and an "Asian" dictatorship.
Trump flies in, signs the accord and declares that he has saved the world ! It would be partly true.
Argentina, Brazil and South Africa all gave up any plans for nuclear weapons. None were subsequently invaded, although Reagan might have had to dissuade Thatcher from bombing Buenos Aires in 1982.
None of those were running a murderous regime. In any case, a new democratic regime agreed to the change.
How do we get there in the first place ? An all out US attack can and will destroy 99.9% of their military. But a mobile unit with small nukes could survive. Why wouldn't they use it ? What have they got to lose ? They will be lynched and shot anyway.
The very idea that the Tories made heavy weather against the Greens(according to the thread header) when there were no other candidates and that every anti tory vote went to the Greens ... is risible.
Labour's recovery is predicated on two distinct decisions:
1. Ousting Corbyn
2. SLAB becomes a distinct political party in Scotland [ like the SDLP in NI or electorally speaking as distinct from politically, like the CSU ] even with Scotland still in the UK.
SLAB could decide on its own Independence policy. If it wants to survive as an entity it has only one choice. Why should a left of centre pro-independence voter choose Labour today ?
Of course, a party in "terminal decline" cannot accept that fate otherwise there would be no point in being. The hard-core Labour vote departed for the SNP because:
1. The SNP has left wing policies and delivers on them.
2. They are pro-independence.
Why should a Unionist vote Labour today ? Yes, 15% do and that is where it will stay.
SLAB has to be become pro-independence.
Precisely the opposite, if SLAB become pro independence their remaining unionist voters will defect en masse to the Scottish Tories and Scottish LDs while they will recapture virtually no pro independence voters from the SNP
I think so too. What is the point of another left wing pro independence party. There already are the SNP, Scottish Greens and a few tiddlers? SLAB needs to stay Unionist.
Then SLAB could become irrelevant within this parliament if it is not already.
There is the future as well. After independence, which I support, the SNP will over time break up. The Left in Scotland will need a home.
So do you think that SLAB will come third in the LG elections in May?
I have know on the ground knowledge, so asking as a genuine question.
In Scotland, yes ! In England , no.
In the English County Council elections Labour will come third behind the Tories and LDs
Not in the NEV.
That is a projection not actual votes cast
Why would you expect Labour to do well in CC elections ? When did Labour win Hampshire ?
Have NK created a nuclear warhead? creating a static one in a mine is very different to a compact missile delivered one.
The experts don't think so yet, but they pretty much all say it'll happen soon-ish. Not too difficult for short range missiles apparently - fortunately for the rest of us, intercontinentals are much trickier to get right.
I agree with you re- the likes of Cat Smith and would expect little change at all were such a person to take over. As far as charisma is concerned, I suspect for now that is not what the electorate is looking for. Theresa May is hardly charismatic and I suspect that fits the national mood quite well and explains why quite a few non - Tories such as myself have warmed to her.We have had too many shysters such as Blair and Cameron.
Well - perhaps. But I think it's much easier for a PM to get away with a lack of charisma because while in office they can show unflappable competence and that gets attention. (Well, maybe that's an exaggeration in May's case but as PM she's always news. She doesn't have to go to the news channels, they come to her. She also doesn't have to say what she would do, she can just get on and do it.) As LotO, you need to find a way to attract that attention and get people to listen to you, because you can't prove yourself by results. That's one reason I think why ultimately Ed Miliband, who was a poor speaker and communicator although he had a number of potentially good ideas, proved a failure while Blair and Cameron succeeded.
.
I could see Starmer as a Kinnock/Howard figure ie an effective opposition leader but not a PM. Someone like Umunna is more likely to be a future PM after another Labour defeat, the question is whether that is a humiliating Corbyn led defeat or a respectable Starmer (or similar) led defeat
I disagree . Umunna does not strike me as particularly authentic at all - and is rumoured to have skeletons waiting to be pulled out.
Umunna has charisma and is telegenic, Starmer is neither just more competent and a shade more centrist than Corbyn
Starmer is way to the right of Corbyn - probably close to Hilary Benn. Umunna reaks of insincerity and I suspect he would not cope well with the pressures of leadership.
Starmer is Kinnockite Labour, Umunna is Blairite Labour and we all know which one of those won elections
I agree, but Kinnock was essential for Blair to get power. The next Labour leader is not going to be PM, but they will prepare the party for the one who will. Alternatively the party could implode like SLAB.
Which confirms Starmer as a Howard/Kinnock figure and Umunna as a Cameron/Blair figure
The very idea that the Tories made heavy weather against the Greens(according to the thread header) when there were no other candidates and that every anti tory vote went to the Greens ... is risible.
There was no good news for the LibDems last night. So there has be an angle somewhere that means it was a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories.....
'Starmer vs Cooper would be a great leadership election'
Whoever it is labour really have little choice now but to select a female MP and for that reason Starmer is not going to win. As for Cooper she is a bit old school and someone from the 2010 - 2015 would be a better choice but few have had a chance to shine under the utter destructive leadership of Corbyn
Perhaps an Australian would appeal to Brexit Britain. Could they bring back Patricia Hewitt?
If you want to go that far back, Harriet is still your best bet. Widely respected in the party.
I would agree with that but again her time and opportunity has come and gone
Better choreography than Saddam, but weapon systems are vintage, apart from a couple of missiles.
If they fight they will be slaughtered, I feel almost sorry for them.
Figures from wikipedia - US military budget $1676 bn NorK $6 bn
OTOH NorK Korean People's Army manpower 5,889,000 US 1,281,900 plus 801,200 reserves. NorK all conscript, US all volunteer.
The end result isn't in doubt, but how we get there would be interesting.
Why do you think there will be a conventional fight ? They have built up a nuclear arsenal [ however, small ] for survival, not for fun. A small pop at Seoul from a mobile unit, they can easily do.
You should ask yourself a simple question: why didn't Bush or Obama just walk in ? It was and is not that simple.
I don't think that. I just thought the numbers were interesting, and at least as illuminating as the very entertaining footage of NorK goosestepping.
Since 1980, only one Labour leader has managed to poll 35% or higher in a general election, in which time no fewer than five Labour leaders have fought elections. They will be starting from a low base as well and have their credibility shattered by years of infighting.
You keep saying that Labour has a chance of this, but practically everything tells against it. Labour have no coherent policy position (one of the reasons Corbyn won is because his opponents had no vision or imagination - while Corbyn's agenda is nonsensical it is at least distinctive). They have no significant intellectual or political figures left in their ranks, with the possible exception of Benn. They are faced with a Conservative leadership that is markedly more populist and also markedly less privileged than at any time in the last 25 years. They are also faced with a radical, long term and structural decline in their vote that leaves them vulnerable to pressure on the left as well.
I will say again - Corbyn is a serious problem. But he is not Labour's only problem. Electing him made matters worse, but the suggestion that a four point improvement on their 2015 position under current circumstances with any leader is merely wishful thinking. If they can get back to 33% and hold most of the seats they currently have they will have done very well.
Even if Labour did win 35%, the Tories would probably be on 43% or so.
If Labour gets to 35% at the GE it would mean that all current certainties have been turned totally on their heads. It would surely indicate that a very strong desire to get rid of the Tories had gripped the nation, so the LDs may well be getting tactical votes where they had a chance to unseat a Tory MP.
Historically, when the Labour vote goes up so does the LD's. The two run in tandem.
If you're referring to votes that's completely wrong:
If you're referring to MPs then its wrong 3/4 times:
1987 All down 1 MPs 1992 LD down 2 MPs 1997 LD up 28 MPs 2015 LD down 49 MPs
OK, I was wrong by being a bit too broadbrush. I meant seats rather than share, and the coupling is not complete, but to gain power LDs and Labour voters have to vote tactically. A tacit acceptance of that is needed.
That's fair enough - with the exception of 1945 whenever the Conservatives have lost power - 1923, 1929, 1964, 1974, 1997 - both Labour and the Libs gained MPs.
The very idea that the Tories made heavy weather against the Greens(according to the thread header) when there were no other candidates and that every anti tory vote went to the Greens ... is risible.
There was no good news for the LibDems last night. So there has be an angle somewhere that means it was a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories.....
Every night on which the Article 50 timebomb is still ticking is a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories. It's just a question of degree.
The very idea that the Tories made heavy weather against the Greens(according to the thread header) when there were no other candidates and that every anti tory vote went to the Greens ... is risible.
They lost 8% of the votes.
I bet some thought it a cast iron Tory win, so didn't bother to vote. Whichever way you splice it, easy win for the Tories. Where was the opposition? Answer NOWHERE
Labour's recovery is predicated on two distinct decisions:
1. Ousting Corbyn
2. SLAB becomes a distinct political party in Scotland [ like the SDLP in NI or electorally speaking as distinct from politically, like the CSU ] even with Scotland still in the UK.
SLAB could decide on its own Independence policy. If it wants to survive as an entity it has only one choice. Why should a left of centre pro-independence voter choose Labour today ?
Of course, a party in "terminal decline" cannot accept that fate otherwise there would be no point in being. The hard-core Labour vote departed for the SNP because:
1. The SNP has left wing policies and delivers on them.
2. They are pro-independence.
Why should a Unionist vote Labour today ? Yes, 15% do and that is where it will stay.
I cannot understand why SLAB cannot be independent even within the UK. The CDU does not participate in Bavaria and the CSU does not put up candidates in the rest of Germany.
Labour has the same relationship with the SDLP in NI.
SLAB has to be distinct and seen to be such, at a very minimum.
It doesn't currently have enough members/income to become independent entity !
'Starmer vs Cooper would be a great leadership election'
Whoever it is labour really have little choice now but to select a female MP and for that reason Starmer is not going to win. As for Cooper she is a bit old school and someone from the 2010 - 2015 would be a better choice but few have had a chance to shine under the utter destructive leadership of Corbyn
Perhaps an Australian would appeal to Brexit Britain. Could they bring back Patricia Hewitt?
If you want to go that far back, Harriet is still your best bet. Widely respected in the party.
I would agree with that but again her time and opportunity has come and gone
'Starmer vs Cooper would be a great leadership election'
Whoever it is labour really have little choice now but to select a female MP and for that reason Starmer is not going to win. As for Cooper she is a bit old school and someone from the 2010 - 2015 would be a better choice but few have had a chance to shine under the utter destructive leadership of Corbyn
Perhaps an Australian would appeal to Brexit Britain. Could they bring back Patricia Hewitt?
If you want to go that far back, Harriet is still your best bet. Widely respected in the party.
I would agree with that but again her time and opportunity has come and gone
Harriet Harperson? You cannot be serious.
As I said her time and opportunity has gone but when you see who labour have to offer just now she was as good as any, but that does not say much
The very idea that the Tories made heavy weather against the Greens(according to the thread header) when there were no other candidates and that every anti tory vote went to the Greens ... is risible.
There was no good news for the LibDems last night. So there has be an angle somewhere that means it was a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories.....
Every night on which the Article 50 timebomb is still ticking is a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories. It's just a question of degree.
You do realise that the Conservative party was officially neutral and that TMay was pro-Remain in the EU ref campaign, do you?
As well as their leader, I think Labour have 4 other problems: 1. Scotland - Labour has now become the third party there, in May it might become the 4th or even 5th party. It's very difficult for Labour to get a majority in England and Wales alone and the Tories will capitalise on any hint of a LAB/SNP pact. 2. The Lib/Dem recovery - They are now attracting significant numbers of Labour's right wing and a new leader will find it difficult to get them back before 2020. 3. The decline of UKIP - Not all UKIPers are part of a Tory reserve army, some voted Labour in the past and some would never vote for any of the main parties but if Mrs May can deliver a Brexit that ends automatic free movement and doesn't damage the economy too much then the Tories have more to gain from a UKIP decline than a new Labour leader who would almost certainly be someone who campaigned for remain. 4. Boundary changes - The number of MPs is set to be reduced by 50 and according to Baxter's website, even if the 2015 were to be repeated, Labour would lose 29 of these and the Tories only 12.
'Starmer vs Cooper would be a great leadership election'
Whoever it is labour really have little choice now but to select a female MP and for that reason Starmer is not going to win. As for Cooper she is a bit old school and someone from the 2010 - 2015 would be a better choice but few have had a chance to shine under the utter destructive leadership of Corbyn
Perhaps an Australian would appeal to Brexit Britain. Could they bring back Patricia Hewitt?
If you want to go that far back, Harriet is still your best bet. Widely respected in the party.
I would agree with that but again her time and opportunity has come and gone
I am not so sure. She mostly performed well as caretaker, and is good in the Commons. She didn't handle the welfare cuts adroitly, but otherwise would be an effective person to clear up the mess. I think she would like to be Labours first permanent female leader. Followed by Jess Philipps...
I agree with you re- the likes of Cat Smith and would expect little change at all were such a person to take over. As far as charisma is concerned, I suspect for now that is not what the electorate is looking for. Theresa May is hardly charismatic and I suspect that fits the national mood quite well and explains why quite a few non - Tories such as myself have warmed to her.We have had too many shysters such as Blair and Cameron.
Well - perhaps. But I think it's much easier for a PM to get away with a lack of charisma because while in office they can show unflappable competence and that gets attention. (Well, maybe that's an exaggeration in May's case but as PM she's always news. She doesn't have to go to the news channels, they come to her. She also doesn't have to say what she would do, she can just get on and do it.) As LotO, you need to find a way to attract that attention and get people to listen to you, because you can't prove yourself by results. That's one reason I think why ultimately Ed Miliband, who was a poor speaker and communicator although he had a number of potentially good ideas, proved a failure while Blair and Cameron succeeded.
.
I could see Starmer as a Kinnock/Howard figure ie an effective opposition leader but not a PM. Someone like Umunna is more likely to be a future PM after another Labour defeat, the question is whether that is a humiliating Corbyn led defeat or a respectable Starmer (or similar) led defeat
I disagree . Umunna does not strike me as particularly authentic at all - and is rumoured to have skeletons waiting to be pulled out.
Umunna has charisma and is telegenic, Starmer is neither just more competent and a shade more centrist than Corbyn
Starmer is way to the right of Corbyn - probably close to Hilary Benn. Umunna reaks of insincerity and I suspect he would not cope well with the pressures of leadership.
Starmer is Kinnockite Labour, Umunna is Blairite Labour and we all know which one of those won elections
I agree, but Kinnock was essential for Blair to get power. The next Labour leader is not going to be PM, but they will prepare the party for the one who will. Alternatively the party could implode like SLAB.
Which confirms Starmer as a Howard/Kinnock figure and Umunna as a Cameron/Blair figure
'Starmer vs Cooper would be a great leadership election'
Whoever it is labour really have little choice now but to select a female MP and for that reason Starmer is not going to win. As for Cooper she is a bit old school and someone from the 2010 - 2015 would be a better choice but few have had a chance to shine under the utter destructive leadership of Corbyn
Perhaps an Australian would appeal to Brexit Britain. Could they bring back Patricia Hewitt?
If you want to go that far back, Harriet is still your best bet. Widely respected in the party.
I would agree with that but again her time and opportunity has come and gone
Harriet Harperson? You cannot be serious.
As I said her time and opportunity has gone but when you see who labour have to offer just now she was as good as any, but that does not say much
'Starmer vs Cooper would be a great leadership election'
Whoever it is labour really have little choice now but to select a female MP and for that reason Starmer is not going to win. As for Cooper she is a bit old school and someone from the 2010 - 2015 would be a better choice but few have had a chance to shine under the utter destructive leadership of Corbyn
Perhaps an Australian would appeal to Brexit Britain. Could they bring back Patricia Hewitt?
If you want to go that far back, Harriet is still your best bet. Widely respected in the party.
I would agree with that but again her time and opportunity has come and gone
I am not so sure. She mostly performed well as caretaker, and is good in the Commons. She didn't handle the welfare cuts adroitly, but otherwise would be an effective person to clear up the mess. I think she would like to be Labours first permanent female leader. Followed by Jess Philipps...
Jon Ashworth remains my tip though.
I do not think the next labour leader will be male. It is becoming a political imperative for labour to have a female leader
The very idea that the Tories made heavy weather against the Greens(according to the thread header) when there were no other candidates and that every anti tory vote went to the Greens ... is risible.
There was no good news for the LibDems last night. So there has be an angle somewhere that means it was a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories.....
Every night on which the Article 50 timebomb is still ticking is a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories. It's just a question of degree.
You do realise that the Conservative party was officially neutral and that TMay was pro-Remain in the EU ref campaign, do you?
You do realise that they are in government and will carry the blame for the whole shambles?
Edit: Although I do think the Tory party will revert back to being pro-European in the long term.
'Starmer vs Cooper would be a great leadership election'
Whoever it is labour really have little choice now but to select a female MP and for that reason Starmer is not going to win. As for Cooper she is a bit old school and someone from the 2010 - 2015 would be a better choice but few have had a chance to shine under the utter destructive leadership of Corbyn
Perhaps an Australian would appeal to Brexit Britain. Could they bring back Patricia Hewitt?
If you want to go that far back, Harriet is still your best bet. Widely respected in the party.
I would agree with that but again her time and opportunity has come and gone
I am not so sure. She mostly performed well as caretaker, and is good in the Commons. She didn't handle the welfare cuts adroitly, but otherwise would be an effective person to clear up the mess. I think she would like to be Labours first permanent female leader. Followed by Jess Philipps...
Jon Ashworth remains my tip though.
I do not think the next labour leader will be male. It is becoming a political imperative for labour to have a female leader
I agree with you re- the likes of Cat Smith and would expect little change at all were such a person to take over. As far as charisma is concerned, I suspect for now that is not what the electorate is looking for. Theresa May is hardly charismatic and I suspect that fits the national mood quite well and explains why quite a few non - Tories such as myself have warmed to her.We have had too many shysters such as Blair and Cameron.
.
.
I could see Starmer as a Kinnock/Howard figure ie an effective opposition leader but not a PM. Someone like Umunna is more likely to be a future PM after another Labour defeat, the question is whether that is a humiliating Corbyn led defeat or a respectable Starmer (or similar) led defeat
I disagree . Umunna does not strike me as particularly authentic at all - and is rumoured to have skeletons waiting to be pulled out.
Umunna has charisma and is telegenic, Starmer is neither just more competent and a shade more centrist than Corbyn
Starmer is way to the right of Corbyn - probably close to Hilary Benn. Umunna reaks of insincerity and I suspect he would not cope well with the pressures of leadership.
Starmer is Kinnockite Labour, Umunna is Blairite Labour and we all know which one of those won elections
I agree, but Kinnock was essential for Blair to get power. The next Labour leader is not going to be PM, but they will prepare the party for the one who will. Alternatively the party could implode like SLAB.
Which confirms Starmer as a Howard/Kinnock figure and Umunna as a Cameron/Blair figure
'Starmer vs Cooper would be a great leadership election'
Whoever it is labour really have little choice now but to select a female MP and for that reason Starmer is not going to win. As for Cooper she is a bit old school and someone from the 2010 - 2015 would be a better choice but few have had a chance to shine under the utter destructive leadership of Corbyn
Perhaps an Australian would appeal to Brexit Britain. Could they bring back Patricia Hewitt?
If you want to go that far back, Harriet is still your best bet. Widely respected in the party.
I would agree with that but again her time and opportunity has come and gone
I am not so sure. She mostly performed well as caretaker, and is good in the Commons. She didn't handle the welfare cuts adroitly, but otherwise would be an effective person to clear up the mess. I think she would like to be Labours first permanent female leader. Followed by Jess Philipps...
Jon Ashworth remains my tip though.
I do not think the next labour leader will be male. It is becoming a political imperative for labour to have a female leader
Nobody has ever made money betting on a female Labour leadership candidate.
Except if they cashed out early on a trading bet ... /pedantry
The very idea that the Tories made heavy weather against the Greens(according to the thread header) when there were no other candidates and that every anti tory vote went to the Greens ... is risible.
There was no good news for the LibDems last night. So there has be an angle somewhere that means it was a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories.....
Every night on which the Article 50 timebomb is still ticking is a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories. It's just a question of degree.
You do realise that the Conservative party was officially neutral and that TMay was pro-Remain in the EU ref campaign, do you?
You do realise that they are in government and will carry the blame for the whole shambles?
Edit: Although I do think the Tory party will revert back to being pro-European in the long term.
The very idea that the Tories made heavy weather against the Greens(according to the thread header) when there were no other candidates and that every anti tory vote went to the Greens ... is risible.
They lost 8% of the votes.
Since when was 8% of the votes slipping for the government to "just 61%" in a parish council by election bad news?
'Starmer vs Cooper would be a great leadership election'
Whoever it is labour really have little choice now but to select a female MP and for that reason Starmer is not going to win. As for Cooper she is a bit old school and someone from the 2010 - 2015 would be a better choice but few have had a chance to shine under the utter destructive leadership of Corbyn
Perhaps an Australian would appeal to Brexit Britain. Could they bring back Patricia Hewitt?
If you want to go that far back, Harriet is still your best bet. Widely respected in the party.
I would agree with that but again her time and opportunity has come and gone
I am not so sure. She mostly performed well as caretaker, and is good in the Commons. She didn't handle the welfare cuts adroitly, but otherwise would be an effective person to clear up the mess. I think she would like to be Labours first permanent female leader. Followed by Jess Philipps...
Jon Ashworth remains my tip though.
I do not think the next labour leader will be male. It is becoming a political imperative for labour to have a female leader
The very idea that the Tories made heavy weather against the Greens(according to the thread header) when there were no other candidates and that every anti tory vote went to the Greens ... is risible.
There was no good news for the LibDems last night. So there has be an angle somewhere that means it was a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories.....
Every night on which the Article 50 timebomb is still ticking is a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories. It's just a question of degree.
You do realise that the Conservative party was officially neutral and that TMay was pro-Remain in the EU ref campaign, do you?
You do realise that they are in government and will carry the blame for the whole shambles?
Let's cross bridges when we come to them, shall we? Many of the electorate are mature adults capable of taking responsibility for their own actions and realising that they, the electorate, dealt the cards which TMay now has to play. You routinely give the impression that you think brexit, rather than a referendum on brexit, was in the tory manifesto. If brexit goes horribly wrong, the question will be: given that TMay screwed up, would Labour have done any better? And that is a question we can all answer now.
The very idea that the Tories made heavy weather against the Greens(according to the thread header) when there were no other candidates and that every anti tory vote went to the Greens ... is risible.
There was no good news for the LibDems last night. So there has be an angle somewhere that means it was a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories.....
Every night on which the Article 50 timebomb is still ticking is a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories. It's just a question of degree.
You do realise that the Conservative party was officially neutral and that TMay was pro-Remain in the EU ref campaign, do you?
You do realise that they are in government and will carry the blame for the whole shambles?
Edit: Although I do think the Tory party will revert back to being pro-European in the long term.
You are going to be very disappointed when Theresa May delivers an EFTA style deal with some nod to free movement acceptable to the majority of the electorate and result in the loss of any indy2 referendum that may, and I say may, take place in Scotland and the end of Nicola's career
2. The Lib/Dem recovery - They are now attracting significant numbers of Labour's right wing .
Is this proven or just assumed? Seems more likely any such voters will in any case return to Labour as soon as a new leader is elected.
It's my guess of course but we've seen plenty of Lib/Dem gains in local council by-elections and we will see plenty more on the 4th of May, but I feel that the LD decline in 2015 went too far and that the coalition has been forgiven and forgotten by some who abandoned them that time. Some of the LD revival could be coming from disaffected Tory remainers, but more is coming from Labour's right wing I recon.
Labour's recovery is predicated on two distinct decisions:
1. Ousting Corbyn
2. SLAB becomes a distinct political party in Scotland [ like the SDLP in NI or electorally speaking as distinct from politically, like the CSU ] even with Scotland still in the UK.
SLAB could decide on its own Independence policy. If it wants to survive as an entity it has only one choice. Why should a left of centre pro-independence voter choose Labour today ?
Of course, a party in "terminal decline" cannot accept that fate otherwise there would be no point in being. The hard-core Labour vote departed for the SNP because:
1. The SNP has left wing policies and delivers on them.
2. They are pro-independence.
Why should a Unionist vote Labour today ? Yes, 15% do and that is where it will stay.
SLAB has to be become pro-independence.
Precisely the opposite, if SLAB become pro independence their remaining unionist voters will defect en masse to the Scottish Tories and Scottish LDs while they will recapture virtually no pro independence voters from the SNP
I think so too. What is the point of another left wing pro independence party. There already are the SNP, Scottish Greens and a few tiddlers? SLAB needs to stay Unionist.
Then SLAB could become irrelevant within this parliament if it is not already.
There is the future as well. After independence, which I support, the SNP will over time break up. The Left in Scotland will need a home.
So do you think that SLAB will come third in the LG elections in May?
I have know on the ground knowledge, so asking as a genuine question.
In Scotland, yes ! In England , no.
In the English County Council elections Labour will come third behind the Tories and LDs
Not in the NEV.
That is a projection not actual votes cast
Why would you expect Labour to do well in CC elections ? When did Labour win Hampshire ?
In 1993 Labour won the County Council elections and even in 2013 Ed Miliband managed second
I quite like e-books. Take up none of my limited shelf space, are delivered immediately (unlike this damned book I've been waiting for and is a week late) and cost less.
They also enable serials to make a return, as will happen with the fantastic Wandering Phoenix and Roaming Tiger (think Outlaws of the Marsh meets Robin Hood) in a few weeks.
That said, I do get physical copies of history, because they're better for quick references and photos/maps etc.
I love my eink ereaders for novels but they are cack for reference books/scientific papers.
2. The Lib/Dem recovery - They are now attracting significant numbers of Labour's right wing .
Is this proven or just assumed? Seems more likely any such voters will in any case return to Labour as soon as a new leader is elected.
It's my guess of course but we've seen plenty of Lib/Dem gains in local council by-elections and we will see plenty more on the 4th of May, but I feel that the LD decline in 2015 went too far and that the coalition has been forgiven and forgotten by some who abandoned them that time. Some of the LD revival could be coming from disaffected Tory remainers, but more is coming from Labour's right wing I recon.
There may be some remainer conservatives attracted to the Lib Dems but there are many more UKIP going to the conservatives
The very idea that the Tories made heavy weather against the Greens(according to the thread header) when there were no other candidates and that every anti tory vote went to the Greens ... is risible.
There was no good news for the LibDems last night. So there has be an angle somewhere that means it was a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories.....
Every night on which the Article 50 timebomb is still ticking is a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories. It's just a question of degree.
You do realise that the Conservative party was officially neutral and that TMay was pro-Remain in the EU ref campaign, do you?
You do realise that they are in government and will carry the blame for the whole shambles?
If it goes awry, the EU will.
Oh, and Remainers, for constantly attempting to undermine the country.
As well as their leader, I think Labour have 4 other problems: 1. Scotland - Labour has now become the third party there, in May it might become the 4th or even 5th party. It's very difficult for Labour to get a majority in England and Wales alone and the Tories will capitalise on any hint of a LAB/SNP pact. 2. The Lib/Dem recovery - They are now attracting significant numbers of Labour's right wing and a new leader will find it difficult to get them back before 2020. 3. The decline of UKIP - Not all UKIPers are part of a Tory reserve army, some voted Labour in the past and some would never vote for any of the main parties but if Mrs May can deliver a Brexit that ends automatic free movement and doesn't damage the economy too much then the Tories have more to gain from a UKIP decline than a new Labour leader who would almost certainly be someone who campaigned for remain. 4. Boundary changes - The number of MPs is set to be reduced by 50 and according to Baxter's website, even if the 2015 were to be repeated, Labour would lose 29 of these and the Tories only 12.
I think there is one more factor that is getting very little attention but will probably be fatal, IMO.
Money, and Union money in particular,
Despite what some say and many wish money is impotent in running a party and winning elections. Labour benefits to a huge amount from the trade unions, both donations and other money spent my the unions for the same end.
The Trade Union Act 2016 is not as big as some had expected, but will in the long term decimate union political funds.
Based on the number that bothered to vote in the last 2 leadership elections only about 80,000 union members are interested in labour party politics, but at the movement about 96% of the 4,000,000 still have money taken by the union to give to labour.
The Act will phase in an 'opt in' instead of an 'opt out' and I expect 90% to opt out. Labour, used to running with a big overheads and a big head count will probably struggle to manage. If labour can have it reversed in time they will be OK for a time, but if they lose in 2020, as is likely, it will be at lest 8 years, of 'opt in' and that will make a big difference.
to give an idea of the size, according the electoral commotion dater base, if it was not for Union donation (and short money) the Lib Dems would have had more donation that labour since the 2015 elections!!!
Evening all. Two plausible Labour leaders that might make progress (or at least stem the losses) in 2020 would be Starmer and Benn - but how does the party get from Corbyn to either of those in not much more than two years?
JC isn't standing down unless he's sure of handing over to one of his own, so unless he gets literally hit by a bus he (or one of his ilk) is the candidate in 2020.
The idea of Chuka Umunna is just silly - he's a completely empty designer suit with a closet full of skeletons who's bottled it once already. Can anyone say anything he stands *for*?
The very idea that the Tories made heavy weather against the Greens(according to the thread header) when there were no other candidates and that every anti tory vote went to the Greens ... is risible.
There was no good news for the LibDems last night. So there has be an angle somewhere that means it was a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories.....
Every night on which the Article 50 timebomb is still ticking is a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories. It's just a question of degree.
You do realise that the Conservative party was officially neutral and that TMay was pro-Remain in the EU ref campaign, do you?
You do realise that they are in government and will carry the blame for the whole shambles?
If it goes awry, the EU will.
Oh, and Remainers, for constantly attempting to undermine the country.
I am not constantly underming the country, though happy to undermine tbe government. These are two very different things.
The very idea that the Tories made heavy weather against the Greens(according to the thread header) when there were no other candidates and that every anti tory vote went to the Greens ... is risible.
There was no good news for the LibDems last night. So there has be an angle somewhere that means it was a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories.....
Every night on which the Article 50 timebomb is still ticking is a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories. It's just a question of degree.
You do realise that the Conservative party was officially neutral and that TMay was pro-Remain in the EU ref campaign, do you?
You do realise that they are in government and will carry the blame for the whole shambles?
Edit: Although I do think the Tory party will revert back to being pro-European in the long term.
You are going to be very disappointed when Theresa May delivers an EFTA style deal with some nod to free movement acceptable to the majority of the electorate and result in the loss of any indy2 referendum that may, and I say may, take place in Scotland and the end of Nicola's career
William is going to be sorely disappointed for a long time. Not only is his Britain as part of Federalist Europe dream dead in the water, but he's on course to lose a grand to a famous thriller writer...
2. The Lib/Dem recovery - They are now attracting significant numbers of Labour's right wing .
Is this proven or just assumed? Seems more likely any such voters will in any case return to Labour as soon as a new leader is elected.
It's my guess of course but we've seen plenty of Lib/Dem gains in local council by-elections and we will see plenty more on the 4th of May, but I feel that the LD decline in 2015 went too far and that the coalition has been forgiven and forgotten by some who abandoned them that time. Some of the LD revival could be coming from disaffected Tory remainers, but more is coming from Labour's right wing I recon.
There may be some remainer conservatives attracted to the Lib Dems but there are many more UKIP going to the conservatives
I agree
I'm a member of UKIP and I'm on the committee of my branch which is the 7th largest in the country, I used to be a Conservative and I don't see any Labour type people there at all. Membership is in decline however and I nearly didn't renew my own membership this year, but in the end, I decided to continue for at least one more year. After Brexit though, who knows what's going to happen but I've never voted Labour and I don't suppose many other UKIP members have recently either.
The very idea that the Tories made heavy weather against the Greens(according to the thread header) when there were no other candidates and that every anti tory vote went to the Greens ... is risible.
There was no good news for the LibDems last night. So there has be an angle somewhere that means it was a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories.....
Every night on which the Article 50 timebomb is still ticking is a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories. It's just a question of degree.
You do realise that the Conservative party was officially neutral and that TMay was pro-Remain in the EU ref campaign, do you?
You do realise that they are in government and will carry the blame for the whole shambles?
Edit: Although I do think the Tory party will revert back to being pro-European in the long term.
You are going to be very disappointed when Theresa May delivers an EFTA style deal with some nod to free movement acceptable to the majority of the electorate and result in the loss of any indy2 referendum that may, and I say may, take place in Scotland and the end of Nicola's career
William is going to be sorely disappointed for a long time. Not only is his Britain as part of Federalist Europe dream dead in the water, but he's on course to lose a grand to a famous thriller writer...
I think that bet hinges on Brexit by a certain date. If talks collapse and hard Brexit happens Williamglenn loses, but as I recall an extension or transitional deal may win the bet for him, depending on terms.
Evening all. Two plausible Labour leaders that might make progress (or at least stem the losses) in 2020 would be Starmer and Benn - but how does the party get from Corbyn to either of those in not much more than two years?
JC isn't standing down unless he's sure of handing over to one of his own, so unless he gets literally hit by a bus he (or one of his ilk) is the candidate in 2020.
The idea of Chuka Umunna is just silly - he's a completely empty designer suit with a closet full of skeletons who's bottled it once already. Can anyone say anything he stands *for*?
Umunna stands for Blairism and the single market, after another Labour defeat in 2020 he may be just the ticket for 2025
Pb brain trust...Does anybody have any suggestions for a graphic tablet which you plug into your pc, which I will only use for annotating documents, writing maths and creating organisation charts ie I won't be using it to create any art so don't need the pro level ones.
2. The Lib/Dem recovery - They are now attracting significant numbers of Labour's right wing .
Is this proven or just assumed? Seems more likely any such voters will in any case return to Labour as soon as a new leader is elected.
It's my guess of course but we've seen plenty of Lib/Dem gains in local council by-elections and we will see plenty more on the 4th of May, but I feel that the LD decline in 2015 went too far and that the coalition has been forgiven and forgotten by some who abandoned them that time. Some of the LD revival could be coming from disaffected Tory remainers, but more is coming from Labour's right wing I recon.
There may be some remainer conservatives attracted to the Lib Dems but there are many more UKIP going to the conservatives
I agree
I'm a member of UKIP and I'm on the committee of my branch which is the 7th largest in the country, I used to be a Conservative and I don't see any Labour type people there at all. Membership is in decline however and I nearly didn't renew my own membership this year, but in the end, I decided to continue for at least one more year. After Brexit though, who knows what's going to happen but I've never voted Labour and I don't suppose many other UKIP members have recently either.
I think kipper members are mostly exConservative or unaffiliated, but many of the voters are ex Labour. This fundamentally why the reinvention as a WWC party failed in Stoke and elsewhere. UKIP members and voters are at least as incomprehending of each other as traditional Labour voters and Momentumites.
Pb brain trust...Does anybody have any suggestions for a graphic tablet which you plug into your pc, which I will only use for annotating documents, writing maths and creating organisation charts ie I won't be using it to create any art so don't need the pro level ones.
JC isn't standing down unless he's sure of handing over to one of his own, so unless he gets literally hit by a bus he (or one of his ilk) is the candidate in 2020.
Corbyn getting hit by a bus makes it more - rather than less - likely that one of his cabal runs in 2020.
JC isn't standing down unless he's sure of handing over to one of his own, so unless he gets literally hit by a bus he (or one of his ilk) is the candidate in 2020.
Corbyn getting hit by a bus makes it more - rather than less - likely that one of his cabal runs in 2020.
"You should elect me in his memory..."
Only if they get sufficient nominees. More likely to get nominees in a scenario where Corbyn agrees to stand down if his torchbearer gets nominated.
'Starmer vs Cooper would be a great leadership election'
Whoever it is labour really have little choice now but to select a female MP and for that reason Starmer is not going to win. As for Cooper she is a bit old school and someone from the 2010 - 2015 would be a better choice but few have had a chance to shine under the utter destructive leadership of Corbyn
Perhaps an Australian would appeal to Brexit Britain. Could they bring back Patricia Hewitt?
If you want to go that far back, Harriet is still your best bet. Widely respected in the party.
Not by everybody. She bears the principal responsibility for Corbyn becoming Leader.
Pb brain trust...Does anybody have any suggestions for a graphic tablet which you plug into your pc, which I will only use for annotating documents, writing maths and creating organisation charts ie I won't be using it to create any art so don't need the pro level ones.
Unless you need it urgently then consider waiting until after the Apple dev conference in June. There's some suggestion that they're going to bake in using the iPad Pro as a graphics tablet which may cause competitors to drop their prices to compete.
Does anybody track, locale government councillors defecting from one party to another?
We use LG by-elections as a reasonable if not prises proxy for how voters might vote in a GE, I am wondering if we could use councillors defecting as a proxy for activists moving party?
I think there has been a few UKIP to Con defections, I was wondering have there been any/many Lab to Lib-Dem defections?
'Starmer vs Cooper would be a great leadership election'
Whoever it is labour really have little choice now but to select a female MP and for that reason Starmer is not going to win. As for Cooper she is a bit old school and someone from the 2010 - 2015 would be a better choice but few have had a chance to shine under the utter destructive leadership of Corbyn
Perhaps an Australian would appeal to Brexit Britain. Could they bring back Patricia Hewitt?
If you want to go that far back, Harriet is still your best bet. Widely respected in the party.
Not by everybody. She bears the principal responsibility for Corbyn becoming Leader.
Thought that was Miliband's fault with his £3 membership fee
I agree with you re- the likes of Cat Smith and would expect little change at all were such a person to take over. As far as charisma is concerned, I suspect for now that is not what the electorate is looking for. Theresa May is hardly charismatic and I suspect that fits the national mood quite well and explains why quite a few non - Tories such as myself have warmed to her.We have had too many shysters such as Blair and Cameron.
Well - perhaps. But I think it's much easier for a PM to get away with a lack of charisma because while in office they can show unflappable competence and that gets attention. (Well, maybe that's an exaggeration in May's case but as PM she's always news. She doesn't have to go to the news channels, they come to her. She also doesn't have to say what she would do, she can just get on and do it.) As LotO, you need to find a way to attract that attention and get people to listen to you, because you can't prove yourself by results. That's one reason I think why ultimately Ed Miliband, who was a poor speaker and communicator although he had a number of potentially good ideas, proved a failure while Blair and Cameron succeeded.
Ed Milliband was just too geeky and unable to connect.I suspect that people such as Yvette Cooper and Keir Starmer would do quite well up against Theresa May.
I could see Starmer as a Kinnock/Howard figure ie an effective opposition leader but not a PM. Someone like Umunna is more likely to be a future PM after another Labour defeat, the question is whether that is a humiliating Corbyn led defeat or a respectable Starmer (or similar) led defeat
I disagree . Umunna does not strike me as particularly authentic at all - and is rumoured to have skeletons waiting to be pulled out.
Umunna has charisma and is telegenic, Starmer is neither just more competent and a shade more centrist than Corbyn
Starmer is way to the right of Corbyn - probably close to Hilary Benn. Umunna reaks of insincerity and I suspect he would not cope well with the pressures of leadership.
Starmer is Kinnockite Labour, Umunna is Blairite Labour and we all know which one of those won elections
Starmer vs Cooper would be a great leadership election.
Not going to happen, given one of them would have to beat Corbyn (or his preferred successor) in the ballot
Disagree. Corbyn would struggle to be re-elected this year. Next year I expect him to be defeated decisively.
The very idea that the Tories made heavy weather against the Greens(according to the thread header) when there were no other candidates and that every anti tory vote went to the Greens ... is risible.
There was no good news for the LibDems last night. So there has be an angle somewhere that means it was a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories.....
Every night on which the Article 50 timebomb is still ticking is a T-E-R-R-R-I-B-L-E night for the Tories. It's just a question of degree.
You do realise that the Conservative party was officially neutral and that TMay was pro-Remain in the EU ref campaign, do you?
You do realise that they are in government and will carry the blame for the whole shambles?
If it goes awry, the EU will.
Oh, and Remainers, for constantly attempting to undermine the country.
This is why I coined the term "failing and blaming": it is more productive for LEAVErs to fail at negotiations and blame other people than it is to actually achieve something.
I agree with you re- the likes of Cat Smith and would expect little change at all were such a person to take over. As far as charisma is concerned, I suspect for now that is not what the electorate is looking for. Theresa May is hardly charismatic and I suspect that fits the national mood quite well and explains why quite a few non - Tories such as myself have warmed to her.We have had too many shysters such as Blair and Cameron.
Well - perhaps. But I think it's much easier for a PM to get away with a lack of charisma because while in office they can show unflappable competence and that gets attention. (Well, maybe that's an exaggeration in May's case but as PM she's always news. She doesn't have to go to the news channels, they come to her. She also doesn't have to say what she would do, she can just get on and do it.) As LotO, you need to find a way to attract that attention and get people to listen to you, because you can't prove yourself by results. That's one reason I think why ultimately Ed Miliband, who was a poor speaker and communicator although he had a number of potentially good ideas, proved a failure while Blair and Cameron succeeded.
Ed Milliband was just too geeky and unable to connect.I suspect that people such as Yvette Cooper and Keir Starmer would do quite well up against Theresa May.
I could see Starmer as a Kinnock/Howard figure ie an effective opposition leader but not a PM. Someone like Umunna is more likely to be a future PM after another Labour defeat, the question is whether that is a humiliating Corbyn led defeat or a respectable Starmer (or similar) led defeat
I disagree . Umunna does not strike me as particularly authentic at all - and is rumoured to have skeletons waiting to be pulled out.
Umunna has charisma and is telegenic, Starmer is neither just more competent and a shade more centrist than Corbyn
Starmer is way to the right of Corbyn - probably close to Hilary Benn. Umunna reaks of insincerity and I suspect he would not cope well with the pressures of leadership.
Starmer is Kinnockite Labour, Umunna is Blairite Labour and we all know which one of those won elections
Starmer could well run the Tories as close in 2020 as Howard did in reverse in 2005. A 3% Tory lead could well mean a Hung Parliament.
Does anybody track, locale government councillors defecting from one party to another?
We use LG by-elections as a reasonable if not prises proxy for how voters might vote in a GE, I am wondering if we could use councillors defecting as a proxy for activists moving party?
I think there has been a few UKIP to Con defections, I was wondering have there been any/many Lab to Lib-Dem defections?
Comments
And the Kim family is not about Communism, it is about dynasty. WTF is in it for them to hand over power to the Communist Party?
If you think from their point of view , why wouldn't they ? They have seen what has happened to Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi.
Because the UN will take over it's entire nuclear industry and South Korean troops will be in NK. After all, protection of top brass will be part of the deal.
There is the future as well. After independence, which I support, the SNP will over time break up. The Left in Scotland will need a home.
OTOH NorK Korean People's Army manpower 5,889,000 US 1,281,900 plus 801,200 reserves. NorK all conscript, US all volunteer.
The end result isn't in doubt, but how we get there would be interesting.
More of the people in her high viz marshall jacket than ever George Osborne achieved in the numerous high viz jacket shots he had taken
http://www.scottishlabour.org.uk/pages/history
I have know on the ground knowledge, so asking as a genuine question.
You should ask yourself a simple question: why didn't Bush or Obama just walk in ? It was and is not that simple.
South Korea's forces are pretty solid too. I suspect the competence and morale of the conscripts. Saddam had a good army on paper too.
The biggest problem is terrain. Open desert is much better for air and tank warfare than Korea's mountains.
'Starmer vs Cooper would be a great leadership election'
Whoever it is labour really have little choice now but to select a female MP and for that reason Starmer is not going to win. As for Cooper she is a bit old school and someone from the 2010 - 2015 would be a better choice but few have had a chance to shine under the utter destructive leadership of Corbyn
Labour has the same relationship with the SDLP in NI.
SLAB has to be distinct and seen to be such, at a very minimum.
Conventional missile and artillery attacks on Seoul from hardened sites may well be possible, but also exactly what the MOAB is designed to counter bombard.
How do we get there in the first place ? An all out US attack can and will destroy 99.9% of their military. But a mobile unit with small nukes could survive. Why wouldn't they use it ? What have they got to lose ? They will be lynched and shot anyway.
1. Scotland - Labour has now become the third party there, in May it might become the 4th or even 5th party. It's very difficult for Labour to get a majority in England and Wales alone and the Tories will capitalise on any hint of a LAB/SNP pact.
2. The Lib/Dem recovery - They are now attracting significant numbers of Labour's right wing and a new leader will find it difficult to get them back before 2020.
3. The decline of UKIP - Not all UKIPers are part of a Tory reserve army, some voted Labour in the past and some would never vote for any of the main parties but if Mrs May can deliver a Brexit that ends automatic free movement and doesn't damage the economy too much then the Tories have more to gain from a UKIP decline than a new Labour leader who would almost certainly be someone who campaigned for remain.
4. Boundary changes - The number of MPs is set to be reduced by 50 and according to Baxter's website, even if the 2015 were to be repeated, Labour would lose 29 of these and the Tories only 12.
Jon Ashworth remains my tip though.
Edit: Although I do think the Tory party will revert back to being pro-European in the long term.
Except if they cashed out early on a trading bet ... /pedantry
Some of the LD revival could be coming from disaffected Tory remainers, but more is coming from Labour's right wing I recon.
Oh, and Remainers, for constantly attempting to undermine the country.
Money, and Union money in particular,
Despite what some say and many wish money is impotent in running a party and winning elections. Labour benefits to a huge amount from the trade unions, both donations and other money spent my the unions for the same end.
The Trade Union Act 2016 is not as big as some had expected, but will in the long term decimate union political funds.
Based on the number that bothered to vote in the last 2 leadership elections only about 80,000 union members are interested in labour party politics, but at the movement about 96% of the 4,000,000 still have money taken by the union to give to labour.
The Act will phase in an 'opt in' instead of an 'opt out' and I expect 90% to opt out. Labour, used to running with a big overheads and a big head count will probably struggle to manage. If labour can have it reversed in time they will be OK for a time, but if they lose in 2020, as is likely, it will be at lest 8 years, of 'opt in' and that will make a big difference.
to give an idea of the size, according the electoral commotion dater base, if it was not for Union donation (and short money) the Lib Dems would have had more donation that labour since the 2015 elections!!!
JC isn't standing down unless he's sure of handing over to one of his own, so unless he gets literally hit by a bus he (or one of his ilk) is the candidate in 2020.
The idea of Chuka Umunna is just silly - he's a completely empty designer suit with a closet full of skeletons who's bottled it once already. Can anyone say anything he stands *for*?
I'm a member of UKIP and I'm on the committee of my branch which is the 7th largest in the country, I used to be a Conservative and I don't see any Labour type people there at all.
Membership is in decline however and I nearly didn't renew my own membership this year, but in the end, I decided to continue for at least one more year.
After Brexit though, who knows what's going to happen but I've never voted Labour and I don't suppose many other UKIP members have recently either.
https://wingsoverscotland.com/blue-is-the-new-orange/
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Wacom-CTL-471-Small-Graphic-Tablet/dp/B00NFQ3H3S/
http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/what-we-can-learn-from-the-first-easter-and-the-will-of-the-people-1-4977058
"You should elect me in his memory..."
We use LG by-elections as a reasonable if not prises proxy for how voters might vote in a GE, I am wondering if we could use councillors defecting as a proxy for activists moving party?
I think there has been a few UKIP to Con defections, I was wondering have there been any/many Lab to Lib-Dem defections?