politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember five months ago when Hammond thought he was unsackabl

Bojabob said:

TGOHF said:

Alistair said:

TGOHF said:

Referendums are only valid if people respect the results - the Nats clearly don't respect the result of the last one - and they are extremely unlikely to react well to losing indyref2 so May well within her rights to tell them to do one.

Ah yes i remember Salmond standing there and declaring UDI on the 19th of September.

yet just 18 months later

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14471087.Alex_Salmond__Boris_as_PM__could_trigger_another_independence_vote_/

"Alex Salmond has suggested the appointment of Boris Johnson as prime minister could be the "material change of circumstances" that triggers another independence referendum."

You really are pissing against the Scottish rain if you are trying to argue that a departure from the EU is not a material change in circumstances.

It was a sufficiently material change in circumstances for the government to entirely forget its own manifesto commitments.

Theuniondivvie said:

I know the term sane Unionism is an oxymoron on this place, but just in case.

https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/842423863237595137

The problem being that in fact Parliaments should indeed be considered unrepresentative of the views of the people on any given specific issue. Parliaments are elected on a whole range of issues - with different people agreeing on different aspects of their manifestos and no single issue necessarily having majority support. So it is not possible to suggest that just because Parliament has a majority for one specific issue that this represents the view of the majority of the electorate.

Two obvious examples of this are the EU referendum - where there was a clear Remain majority in Parliament but a Leave majority in the population - and the Death Penalty where all polls show majority support for its return but there is no majority in Parliament for it.

I don't say this as a reason for not holding the Indy Vote but only to correct Massie's false arguments. Something he is unfortunately very prone to.

Alistair said:

TGOHF said:

Alistair said:

TGOHF said:

Alistair said:

TGOHF said:

Nats behaving like neds on the railway platform - gesticulating to passengers on a train pulling out of the station that they are "scared of losing" - safe in the knowledge that any real confrontation isn't happening.

Ah how i remember the doesn't want a referendum, shouldn't ball a referendum, can't call a referendum, won't call a referendum , oh it's a referendum progression from last time round.

I have time table and cheese ready.

Do you remember "once in a generation" ?

Oh, i see we have moved onto can't have a referendum.

I can see you are hurting Alistair - but best you face reality - the majority of Scots don't want another referendum in the near or even medium term.

The majority want one once Brexit negotiations are complete. Which is Sturgeons proposed suggestion.

No she has suggested one could be before March 2019 and the completion of negotiations

Bojabob said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Bojabob said:

Weird one. Is it just me or is Laura Kuenssberg a bit irksome? There is just something about her presentational style and breathless need to work in controversy and comment that I find grating on the BBC. She'd be better placed posting on PB.

She is the reason Trump banned the BBC from press conferences

I'm warming to her.

Didn't the Corbynistas try to get her sacked for her damning endictment of their exalted leader? If she gets banned from Trump's press conferences AND pisses off the lunatic leftist fringe, it sounds like she has the rare gift of pleasing nobody. That is her job.

JackW said:

SeanT said:

I agree. I think they should hold the referendum this summer before we trigger A50 and then we know

And yet, as I have just shown, the balance of really passionate support is quite significantly weighted in favour the Union

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Images/Scotland/scotland-independence-scale_lightbox.jpg

The coming mood music will be as important as the "facts" that both sides bring to the table. My overwhelming sense is that the PM has made a terrible strategic error.

Many Scots, including Unionists, will not enjoy being told by the "English PM" that she will reject without discussion the will of the Scottish parliament. The ghost of Thatcher in Scotland Mk II will be rife. Polls may show many things but there will be a sense of unease tonight that will run for many years to come.

really

do scots have a mental age of seven ?

Jonathan said:

So why did May charge headfirst into Sturgeons trap?

She didn't if anything it is Sturgeon who is trapped rushing into a referendum demand before Brexit talks have definitively been concluded and before she finds out what May will actually propose to the EU

Dupont-Aignan has lost his case at the Conseil d'Etat.

The judgment is here. This probably means he will be holding a demo outside the TV studios on Monday.

MonikerDiCanio said:

JackW said:

SeanT said:

I agree. I think they should hold the referendum this summer before we trigger A50 and then we know

And yet, as I have just shown, the balance of really passionate support is quite significantly weighted in favour the Union

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Images/Scotland/scotland-independence-scale_lightbox.jpg

The coming mood music will be as important as the "facts" that both sides bring to the table. My overwhelming sense is that the PM has made a terrible strategic error.

Many Scots, including Unionists, will not enjoy being told by the "English PM" that she will reject without discussion the will of the Scottish parliament. The ghost of Thatcher in Scotland Mk II will be rife. Polls may show many things but there will be a sense of unease tonight that will run for many years to come.

Being a doormat has worked so well.

Please wipe your shoes on the in.

TGOHF said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

So why did May charge headfirst into Sturgeons trap?

She didn't if anything it is Sturgeon who is trapped rushing into a referendum demand before Brexit talks have definitively been concluded and before she finds out what May will actually propose to the EU

Indeed Nicla blinked first on Monday - if May was leading us down a path that would have enhanced the chances of winning an indyrefX then why did she interrupt her ?

Exactly May is keeping her cards close to her chest until she invokes Article 50 for a reason

JackW said:

RoyalBlue said:

JackW said:

SeanT said:

I agree. I think they should hold the referendum this summer before we trigger A50 and then we know

And yet, as I have just shown, the balance of really passionate support is quite significantly weighted in favour the Union

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Images/Scotland/scotland-independence-scale_lightbox.jpg

The coming mood music will be as important as the "facts" that both sides bring to the table. My overwhelming sense is that the PM has made a terrible strategic error.

Many Scots, including Unionists, will not enjoy being told by the "English PM" that she will reject without discussion the will of the Scottish parliament. The ghost of Thatcher in Scotland Mk II will be rife. Polls may show many things but there will be a sense of unease tonight that will run for many years to come.

This is wishful thinking. Most Scots do not see her as the 'English PM', and those who do are already Yes voters.

Theresa May has at last put an end to the appeasement strategy. You don't win by retreating every time.

I used "English PM" deliberately.

Neither do you necessarily win by fixing bayonets and "going over the top".

I think most British people are fed up with being taken for a ride by Scotland's tinpot FM.

Alanbrooke said:

JackW said:

SeanT said:

I agree. I think they should hold the referendum this summer before we trigger A50 and then we know

And yet, as I have just shown, the balance of really passionate support is quite significantly weighted in favour the Union

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Images/Scotland/scotland-independence-scale_lightbox.jpg

The coming mood music will be as important as the "facts" that both sides bring to the table. My overwhelming sense is that the PM has made a terrible strategic error.

Many Scots, including Unionists, will not enjoy being told by the "English PM" that she will reject without discussion the will of the Scottish parliament. The ghost of Thatcher in Scotland Mk II will be rife. Polls may show many things but there will be a sense of unease tonight that will run for many years to come.

really

do scots have a mental age of seven ?

Many seven year old Scottish children do.

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I agree with the Prof. Today might well have been the day that the United Kingdom's death warrant was signed. The Westminster government said in effect that a democratic mandate in the Scottish Parliament was to be countermanded for the convenience of the UK government.

'Convenience' is a highly loaded word. You could more reasonably put it as: "Given the responsibility of the UK parliament to act in the interests of the whole of the UK, a request from the Scottish parliament for a referendum at a completely impractical time, and only two years since the last one on the same subject, has been denied, but the request will be considered in due course.'

Of course it's a highly loaded word. But the Prime Minister is setting aside a democratic mandate explicitly stated in the SNP's manifesto (in the same week that she has been forced belatedly to recognise her own party's manifesto commitments).

I have no doubt that the SNP are playing this in a way most calculated to achieve their longstanding aims. You can call that bad faith if you wish to use another highly loaded phrase.

But inconveniently, the SNP are putting their manifesto into practice. If the Prime Minister wishes to argue that now is not a good time, she needs to be a hell of a lot clearer about when is a good time if she is to retain any credibility as a leader of the entire United Kingdom.

It's not for the SNP to unilaterally determine when a second referendum will be held.

Alanbrooke said:

JackW said:

SeanT said:

I agree. I think they should hold the referendum this summer before we trigger A50 and then we know

And yet, as I have just shown, the balance of really passionate support is quite significantly weighted in favour the Union

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Images/Scotland/scotland-independence-scale_lightbox.jpg

The coming mood music will be as important as the "facts" that both sides bring to the table. My overwhelming sense is that the PM has made a terrible strategic error.

Many Scots, including Unionists, will not enjoy being told by the "English PM" that she will reject without discussion the will of the Scottish parliament. The ghost of Thatcher in Scotland Mk II will be rife. Polls may show many things but there will be a sense of unease tonight that will run for many years to come.

really

do scots have a mental age of seven ?

There is certainly a big dose of playing to infantilism in the whole marketing of the supposed need for Scottish independence. "You won't let us do this, you won't let us do that", etc.

Many Unionist Scots use the word "English" to describe the main British-level newspapers, even if not to describe the British government.

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I agree with the Prof. Today might well have been the day that the United Kingdom's death warrant was signed. The Westminster government said in effect that a democratic mandate in the Scottish Parliament was to be countermanded for the convenience of the UK government.

'Convenience' is a highly loaded word. You could more reasonably put it as: "Given the responsibility of the UK parliament to act in the interests of the whole of the UK, a request from the Scottish parliament for a referendum at a completely impractical time, and only two years since the last one on the same subject, has been denied, but the request will be considered in due course.'

Of course it's a highly loaded word. But the Prime Minister is setting aside a democratic mandate explicitly stated in the SNP's manifesto (in the same week that she has been forced belatedly to recognise her own party's manifesto commitments).

I have no doubt that the SNP are playing this in a way most calculated to achieve their longstanding aims. You can call that bad faith if you wish to use another highly loaded phrase.

But inconveniently, the SNP are putting their manifesto into practice. If the Prime Minister wishes to argue that now is not a good time, she needs to be a hell of a lot clearer about when is a good time if she is to retain any credibility as a leader of the entire United Kingdom.

It's not for the SNP to unilaterally determine when a second referendum will be held.

The SNP is going to put it to a vote next week in the Scottish parliament. It cannot win on its own.

JonathanD said:

Bojabob said:

Moving away from the core news here, just watched the May interview. She used the language forging "a new relationship with the European Union". This seems to me to be a change in nuance if not in fact – rather than using words like "exiting" which have been the norm up to now. I might be reading too much into things. But could @SeanT be right and the government will now go for EEA-lite. Hmm.

There was a report a few days ago saying ' 'Brexit' polled badly and wasn't to be used anymore. Brexit means a new relationship with Europe is the new phrase apparently. Another example of May's uselessness.

She's been saying 'as we forge a new role for ourselves in the world' since she took over. I suppose being an object lesson in the dangers of nationalistic pride counts as a role.

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I agree with the Prof. Today might well have been the day that the United Kingdom's death warrant was signed. The Westminster government said in effect that a democratic mandate in the Scottish Parliament was to be countermanded for the convenience of the UK government.

'Convenience' is a highly loaded word. You could more reasonably put it as: "Given the responsibility of the UK parliament to act in the interests of the whole of the UK, a request from the Scottish parliament for a referendum at a completely impractical time, and only two years since the last one on the same subject, has been denied, but the request will be considered in due course.'

Of course it's a highly loaded word. But the Prime Minister is setting aside a democratic mandate explicitly stated in the SNP's manifesto (in the same week that she has been forced belatedly to recognise her own party's manifesto commitments).

I have no doubt that the SNP are playing this in a way most calculated to achieve their longstanding aims. You can call that bad faith if you wish to use another highly loaded phrase.

But inconveniently, the SNP are putting their manifesto into practice. If the Prime Minister wishes to argue that now is not a good time, she needs to be a hell of a lot clearer about when is a good time if she is to retain any credibility as a leader of the entire United Kingdom.

It's not for the SNP to unilaterally determine when a second referendum will be held.

I firmly believe that the EU referendum vote should be implemented. While I regard it as a national disaster, the people have spoken.

I also firmly believe that the SNP have a mandate to call for a second referendum, based on their manifesto last year and their command of the Scottish Parliament.

The one does not exclude the other and the Prime Minister does not have the moral right simply to refuse to hold a second Scottish independence referendum just because it is inconvenient.

RoyalBlue said:

JackW said:

SeanT said:

I agree. I think they should hold the referendum this summer before we trigger A50 and then we know

And yet, as I have just shown, the balance of really passionate support is quite significantly weighted in favour the Union

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Images/Scotland/scotland-independence-scale_lightbox.jpg

The coming mood music will be as important as the "facts" that both sides bring to the table. My overwhelming sense is that the PM has made a terrible strategic error.

Many Scots, including Unionists, will not enjoy being told by the "English PM" that she will reject without discussion the will of the Scottish parliament. The ghost of Thatcher in Scotland Mk II will be rife. Polls may show many things but there will be a sense of unease tonight that will run for many years to come.

This is wishful thinking. Most Scots do not see her as the 'English PM', and those who do are already Yes voters.

Theresa May has at last put an end to the appeasement strategy. You don't win by retreating every time.

Most Scots see her as a "Tory PM" !!

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I agree with the Prof. Today might well have been the day that the United Kingdom's death warrant was signed. The Westminster government said in effect that a democratic mandate in the Scottish Parliament was to be countermanded for the convenience of the UK government.

'Convenience' is a highly loaded word. You could more reasonably put it as: "Given the responsibility of the UK parliament to act in the interests of the whole of the UK, a request from the Scottish parliament for a referendum at a completely impractical time, and only two years since the last one on the same subject, has been denied, but the request will be considered in due course.'

Of course it's a highly loaded word. But the Prime Minister is setting aside a democratic mandate explicitly stated in the SNP's manifesto (in the same week that she has been forced belatedly to recognise her own party's manifesto commitments).

I have no doubt that the SNP are playing this in a way most calculated to achieve their longstanding aims. You can call that bad faith if you wish to use another highly loaded phrase.

But inconveniently, the SNP are putting their manifesto into practice. If the Prime Minister wishes to argue that now is not a good time, she needs to be a hell of a lot clearer about when is a good time if she is to retain any credibility as a leader of the entire United Kingdom.

It's not for the SNP to unilaterally determine when a second referendum will be held.

The SNP is going to put it to a vote next week in the Scottish parliament. It cannot win on its own.

Mind you, the British parliament voted to hold the EU referendum, and plenty of Remain supporters reckon that was a bad idea!

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

Same old arguments, eh?

May bad
The Union is breaking apart

Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.

They want two New Swedens. An independent Scotland led by the SNP and a United Ireland led by Sinn Fein.

AlastairMeeks said:

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I agree with the Prof. Today might well have been the day that the United Kingdom's death warrant was signed. The Westminster government said in effect that a democratic mandate in the Scottish Parliament was to be countermanded for the convenience of the UK government.

'Convenience' is a highly loaded word. You could more reasonably put it as: "Given the responsibility of the UK parliament to act in the interests of the whole of the UK, a request from the Scottish parliament for a referendum at a completely impractical time, and only two years since the last one on the same subject, has been denied, but the request will be considered in due course.'

Of course it's a highly loaded word. But the Prime Minister is setting aside a democratic mandate explicitly stated in the SNP's manifesto (in the same week that she has been forced belatedly to recognise her own party's manifesto commitments).

I have no doubt that the SNP are playing this in a way most calculated to achieve their longstanding aims. You can call that bad faith if you wish to use another highly loaded phrase.

But inconveniently, the SNP are putting their manifesto into practice. If the Prime Minister wishes to argue that now is not a good time, she needs to be a hell of a lot clearer about when is a good time if she is to retain any credibility as a leader of the entire United Kingdom.

It's not for the SNP to unilaterally determine when a second referendum will be held.

I firmly believe that the EU referendum vote should be implemented. While I regard it as a national disaster, the people have spoken.

I also firmly believe that the SNP have a mandate to call for a second referendum, based on their manifesto last year and their command of the Scottish Parliament.

The one does not exclude the other and the Prime Minister does not have the moral right simply to refuse to hold a second Scottish independence referendum just because it is inconvenient.

They do not have the right to call a referendum until Brexit talks have been concluded, no poll of Scots supports that

chestnut said:

I have to give the SNP some credit.

They even have the unionists thinking and talking in separatist language, and they've turned devolution into agitation.

That's pretty impressive for the side that lost by eleven points.

Cameron gave them everything they needed to keep on fighting the morning after the referendum result was announced. And just about everything that has happened since has played into the SNP's hands.

AlastairMeeks said:

MarqueeMark said:

May has one job. To deliver Brexit. For the whole of the UK.

That belief is why Brexit is so disastrous for the country. The Prime Minister has the job of being Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Brexit is something in her intray, not her job.

But far too many Leavers confuse one item in her intray with her job.

So she shouldn't treat as her overwhelming priority?

It's a view. I guess in Holland you'd vote for the Animals Party.

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

Same old arguments, eh?

May bad
The Union is breaking apart

Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.

They want two New Swedens. An independent Scotland led by the SNP and a United Ireland led by Sinn Fein.

Whereas in reality the best that can be hoped for is a thoroughly divided Ireland and a Scotland devoid of business or investment.

RoyalBlue said:

AlastairMeeks said:

MarqueeMark said:

May has one job. To deliver Brexit. For the whole of the UK.

That belief is why Brexit is so disastrous for the country. The Prime Minister has the job of being Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Brexit is something in her intray, not her job.

But far too many Leavers confuse one item in her intray with her job.

So she shouldn't treat as her overwhelming priority?

It's a view. I guess in Holland you'd vote for the Animals Party.

That is not what I wrote.

Brexit is not the only important matter Theresa May has to deal with. She needs to give some of the others a bit of thought too.

That should be an entirely uncontroversial statement. But the loonier Leavers can't get their heads around the idea that anything else might have any relevance at all.

HYUFD said:

They do not have the right to call a referendum until Brexit talks have been concluded, no poll of Scots supports that

Does a narrow UK wide majority give the UK government the right to take Scotland out of the EU when the people voted overwhelmingly to remain? If it's a union of equals then clearly it does not.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jonathan said:

TGOHF said:

Jonathan said:

So why did May charge headfirst into Sturgeons trap?

Why did Sturgeon charge headfirst into May's trap ?

Er. May didn't need to say anything. Maybe this is to distract from the expenses stuff. Otherwise I don't get it.

She had to say something, surely, and she wasn't going to say 'Yep, let's wreck the already massively complicated Brexit negotiations with a Scottish side-show'. So she had to say No, on the timing.

However, @JackW has it right: there are ways of saying No which sound like 'We fully respect your request and we'd really love to help you with it, but there are very difficult practical problems with the timetable you've suggested, so we'll set up a mechanism for agreeing a mutually convenient date."

Flim-flam, of course, and no different in content to what Mrs May has said, but giving a little less of a peg for grievance.

As I said, she didn't have to say anything. What you suggest is saying nothing in a longwinded fashion.

Jonathan said:

As I said, she didn't have to say anything. What you suggest is saying nothing in a longwinded fashion.

Yes, exactly.

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

Same old arguments, eh?

May bad
The Union is breaking apart

Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.

They want two New Swedens. An independent Scotland led by the SNP and a United Ireland led by Sinn Fein.

Nah - unlike so-called British patriots some of us have a genuine affection for the whole of the UK and loyalty to it. We despair at cack-handed, right-wing Tories whose actions and words have left the Union in such a precarious state.

Your party conflated the Tories and the English for decades for base partisan reasons. What a shame that now you might reap that whirlwind!

TGOHF said:

SouthamObserver said:

chestnut said:

I have to give the SNP some credit.

They even have the unionists thinking and talking in separatist language, and they've turned devolution into agitation.

That's pretty impressive for the side that lost by eleven points.

Cameron gave them everything they needed to keep on fighting the morning after the referendum result was announced. And just about everything that has happened since has played into the SNP's hands.

Cameron bad, May bad, Nicla good - I sense a pattern.

Yes, I suspect that Nicola Sturgeon is much more attuned to sentiment in Scotland than either Cameron or May.

MarqueeMark said:

JackW said:

RoyalBlue said:

JackW said:

SeanT said:

I agree. I think they should hold the referendum this summer before we trigger A50 and then we know

And yet, as I have just shown, the balance of really passionate support is quite significantly weighted in favour the Union

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Images/Scotland/scotland-independence-scale_lightbox.jpg

The coming mood music will be as important as the "facts" that both sides bring to the table. My overwhelming sense is that the PM has made a terrible strategic error.

Many Scots, including Unionists, will not enjoy being told by the "English PM" that she will reject without discussion the will of the Scottish parliament. The ghost of Thatcher in Scotland Mk II will be rife. Polls may show many things but there will be a sense of unease tonight that will run for many years to come.

This is wishful thinking. Most Scots do not see her as the 'English PM', and those who do are already Yes voters.

Theresa May has at last put an end to the appeasement strategy. You don't win by retreating every time.

I used "English PM" deliberately.

Neither do you necessarily win by fixing bayonets and "going over the top".

So what should you do? Just sit there, being shelled?

May has one job. To deliver Brexit. For the whole of the UK.

She is dealing with the Scotland that she finds.The Scotland that voted - less than a thousand days ago - to remain in the UK. If they wanted something else, the Scots had the opportunity to vote for it. They didn't. Why should May pander to that minority who represent the losers?

I'm afraid the PM and Mundell have handled the Scottish angle desperately badly. The Scotland she "finds" is one that voted significantly against BREXIT and yet this administration has barely made any effort to bring Scots on board. Look at the shambles over agriculture powers and the almost total lack of discussions with any of the devolved administration over BREXIT.

The Scots were told the Union would mean remaining in the EU. Hhmmmm.

I'm heartily saddened by the current situation but the long term implications are to my mind clear and it doesn't bode well for the Union.

Mr. Glenn, your argument that 8% of the UK population should have a veto on the rest of the country is not an argument for a partnership of equals. Every Scottish, English, Welsh and Northern Irish vote had the same weight.

Mr. Observer, it was Labour that thought Celtic devolution would give it everlasting fiefdoms...

AlastairMeeks said:

MarqueeMark said:

May has one job. To deliver Brexit. For the whole of the UK.

That belief is why Brexit is so disastrous for the country. The Prime Minister has the job of being Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Brexit is something in her intray, not her job.

But far too many Leavers confuse one item in her intray with her job.

More people voted in the Referendum than in the General Election the year earlier. Politically, delivery of Brexit is top trumps. She at least gets what needs to be done.

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Sean_F said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I agree with the Prof. Today might well have been the day that the United Kingdom's death warrant was signed. The Westminster government said in effect that a democratic mandate in the Scottish Parliament was to be countermanded for the convenience of the UK government.

'Convenience' is a highly loaded word. You could more reasonably put it as: "Given the responsibility of the UK parliament to act in the interests of the whole of the UK, a request from the Scottish parliament for a referendum at a completely impractical time, and only two years since the last one on the same subject, has been denied, but the request will be considered in due course.'

Of course it's a highly loaded word. But the Prime Minister is setting aside a democratic mandate explicitly stated in the SNP's manifesto (in the same week that she has been forced belatedly to recognise her own party's manifesto commitments).

I have no doubt that the SNP are playing this in a way most calculated to achieve their longstanding aims. You can call that bad faith if you wish to use another highly loaded phrase.

But inconveniently, the SNP are putting their manifesto into practice. If the Prime Minister wishes to argue that now is not a good time, she needs to be a hell of a lot clearer about when is a good time if she is to retain any credibility as a leader of the entire United Kingdom.

It's not for the SNP to unilaterally determine when a second referendum will be held.

I firmly believe that the EU referendum vote should be implemented. While I regard it as a national disaster, the people have spoken.

I also firmly believe that the SNP have a mandate to call for a second referendum, based on their manifesto last year and their command of the Scottish Parliament.

The one does not exclude the other and the Prime Minister does not have the moral right simply to refuse to hold a second Scottish independence referendum just because it is inconvenient.

They do not have the right to call a referendum until Brexit talks have been concluded, no poll of Scots supports that

So government by poll, eh? What happens if polls start to indicate that Brits do not want to leave the EU?

RoyalBlue said:

SouthamObserver said:

Sean_F said:

Mortimer said:

SouthamObserver said:

Seems pretty simple to me: there will be no independence referendum this side of 2020. But when one happens, May has given the SNP even more material to play with. Sturgeon has 45% of the electorate currently - they want independence despite knowing the oil price has crashed and the economics of separation are not good in the short to medium term. She now has three or four years to persuade 6% more to change their minds (while also knowing that some of the older Unionists will not be around to cast their votes next time).

Same old arguments, eh?

May bad
The Union is breaking apart

Meanwhile, in the real world, the only people whinging are the SNP and the bitter Remainers who are cheering her on for some masochistic reason that few of us British patriots can understand.

They want two New Swedens. An independent Scotland led by the SNP and a United Ireland led by Sinn Fein.

Nah - unlike so-called British patriots some of us have a genuine affection for the whole of the UK and loyalty to it. We despair at cack-handed, right-wing Tories whose actions and words have left the Union in such a precarious state.

Your party conflated the Tories and the English for decades for base partisan reasons. What a shame that now you might reap that whirlwind!

Yes, I will be very sorry to see the UK break-up as I am a British patriot.

Jonathan said:

May is increasing the chance of breaking the union. The only question is whether it is deliberate or not.

Probably incompetence rather than malice.. Maybe we'll get another u turn next week.

I'm expecting one. The question will be how the Prime Minister manages to extricate herself with the minimum embarrassment.

I'm very sad.

Today, I do not believe Britain will be a thing in ten years.

This is an utter catastrophe.

Jonathan said:

I'm very sad.

Today, I do not believe Britain will be a thing in ten years.

This is an utter catastrophe.

It's being destroyed not by Scottish nationalism but by English nationalism.

Maybe the Union has just run its course? Like Brexit before the referendum, it's just an open wound that never heals. As Brexit and Trump have shown, a lot of people want something-anything-new. They're not particularly swayed by economic arguments, they're more emotional, more personal.
From here in the East Midlands, it's almost impossible to know the real situation, the real feeling North of the border. Is it all SNP bluster? Is it English Tories denying Scotland's democratic right? I just don't know.

Jonathan said:

I'm very sad.

Today, I do not believe Britain will be a thing in ten years.

This is an utter catastrophe.

Cheer up. Scandinavia is still a thing despite being made up of several countries with Norway stubbornly outside the EU.

Jonathan said:

I'm very sad.

Today, I do not believe Britain will be a thing in ten years.

This is an utter catastrophe.

Why's it a catastrophe ? If the Scots want to go, Godspeed.

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

I'm very sad.

Today, I do not believe Britain will be a thing in ten years.

This is an utter catastrophe.

It's being destroyed not by Scottish nationalism but by English nationalism.

Yep.

Jonathan said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Jonathan said:

I'm very sad.

Today, I do not believe Britain will be a thing in ten years.

This is an utter catastrophe.

It's being destroyed not by Scottish nationalism but by English nationalism.

Isn't it both?

It survived Scottish nationalism. It will not survive the English nationalism.

JackW said:

MarqueeMark said:

JackW said:

RoyalBlue said:

JackW said:

SeanT said:

I agree. I think they should hold the referendum this summer before we trigger A50 and then we know

And yet, as I have just shown, the balance of really passionate support is quite significantly weighted in favour the Union

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Images/Scotland/scotland-independence-scale_lightbox.jpg

The coming mood music will be as important as the "facts" that both sides bring to the table. My overwhelming sense is that the PM has made a terrible strategic error.

Many Scots, including Unionists, will not enjoy being told by the "English PM" that she will reject without discussion the will of the Scottish parliament. The ghost of Thatcher in Scotland Mk II will be rife. Polls may show many things but there will be a sense of unease tonight that will run for many years to come.

This is wishful thinking. Most Scots do not see her as the 'English PM', and those who do are already Yes voters.

Theresa May has at last put an end to the appeasement strategy. You don't win by retreating every time.

I used "English PM" deliberately.

Neither do you necessarily win by fixing bayonets and "going over the top".

So what should you do? Just sit there, being shelled?

May has one job. To deliver Brexit. For the whole of the UK.

She is dealing with the Scotland that she finds.The Scotland that voted - less than a thousand days ago - to remain in the UK. If they wanted something else, the Scots had the opportunity to vote for it. They didn't. Why should May pander to that minority who represent the losers?

I'm afraid the PM and Mundell have handled the Scottish angle desperately badly. The Scotland she "finds" is one that voted significantly against BREXIT and yet this administration has barely made any effort to bring Scots on board. Look at the shambles over agriculture powers and the almost total lack of discussions with any of the devolved administration over BREXIT.

The Scots were told the Union would mean remaining in the EU. Hhmmmm.

I'm heartily saddened by the current situation but the long term implications are to my mind clear and it doesn't bode well for the Union.

Jack, how do you make ANY practical effort to bring the Scots on board? They voted for the other side of a binary choice.

There is one thing we can take from Sturgeon's actions. A Miliband Govt. propped up by the SNP would have been every bit in the pocket of the Scots as the election poster suggested.