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Newsnight is greatFrancisUrquhart said:
Metaphor for newsnight...A has been.MarqueeMark said:Lord Mandelson looking crest-fallen on Newsnight.
Brexit, the gift that keeps on giving.
Coming after the big guest....Nicola sturgeons biographer to tell us about sindy. I am presuming her hairdresser was busy.
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Ah, I see the Lords have voted. What is HM up to this evening?
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Not what the audience figures say. There are twitch channels on at the moment with more viewers than newsnight ie more people want to watch a spotty teenager in his parents garage play video games.Jonathan said:
Newsnight is greatFrancisUrquhart said:
Metaphor for newsnight...A has been.MarqueeMark said:Lord Mandelson looking crest-fallen on Newsnight.
Brexit, the gift that keeps on giving.
Coming after the big guest....Nicola sturgeons biographer to tell us about sindy. I am presuming her hairdresser was busy.0 -
Early night so she can have early breakfast with the pen poised0
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It's day one and we already have Scottish subsamples!TheScreamingEagles said:
I think they've misinterpreted the PB/Polling Matters poll.Theuniondivvie said:
They've taken the Scottish sub-sample from the GB wide poll.
I've dropped Adam from Opinium a message to confirm that they haven't done any Scotland only Indyref polling.0 -
Patrick Harvie, the Green Party leader, has already backed the independence vote todayCyan said:
From the Scottish Greens' manifesto:HYUFD said:
They do with the Greens and the Greens back independence, that is a completely different prospect to Stormont where neither SF nor SF+SDLP have a majority or indeed Cardiff where PC are not only not the largest party but have no allies for independence eitherCyan said:
The SNP don't have a majority at Holyrood. Take another look!HYUFD said:
Yes, well unlike the SNP they do not have a majority at Stormont so toughPong said:http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-nireland-idUKKBN16K28E
"Northern Ireland's largest Irish nationalist party Sinn Fein on Monday said it wanted a referendum on splitting from the United Kingdom "as soon as possible", hours after Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon demanded a new independence vote."
"In assessing public appetite for a second referendum we will respect new kinds of citizen-led initiatives - for example, a call for a referendum signed by up to 1 million people on the electoral register."0 -
It is still not a shoe though...Sunil_Prasannan said:
It's not a flower, but a 24-spoked wheel:Beverley_C said:
What about the big swirly flower the Indian flag has? You are not trying to imply it is a type of shoe are you?Sunil_Prasannan said:I thought your Avatar might have been an Indian flag, but rotated 90 degrees
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashoka_Chakra0 -
Breaking manifesto commitments is in season...HYUFD said:
Patrick Harvie, the Green Party leader, has already backed the independence vote todayCyan said:
From the Scottish Greens' manifesto:HYUFD said:
They do with the Greens and the Greens back independence, that is a completely different prospect to Stormont where neither SF nor SF+SDLP have a majority or indeed Cardiff where PC are not only not the largest party but have no allies for independence eitherCyan said:
The SNP don't have a majority at Holyrood. Take another look!HYUFD said:
Yes, well unlike the SNP they do not have a majority at Stormont so toughPong said:http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-nireland-idUKKBN16K28E
"Northern Ireland's largest Irish nationalist party Sinn Fein on Monday said it wanted a referendum on splitting from the United Kingdom "as soon as possible", hours after Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon demanded a new independence vote."
"In assessing public appetite for a second referendum we will respect new kinds of citizen-led initiatives - for example, a call for a referendum signed by up to 1 million people on the electoral register."0 -
Mail being amazingly restrained in the circumstances.
Nah, only joking!
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/8414122200724111370 -
Well they managed too on June 23rd last year, we can reform the welfare system to ensure they do so every weekdayMonksfield said:
Farmers need people who are actually going to get out of bed you know...HYUFD said:
Well we can get some of the Leavers to get off their backsides and do thoseMonksfield said:
Is picking broccoli in the fens a skilled job? Or egg packing?HYUFD said:
It has already been put to a Cabinet sub committee by Amber Rudd, EU workers will get a visa provided they have a skilled job to go to in the UK. Tourists and students would still have free access post Brexit. That is the basis of the immigration deal the UK government will offer the EU in return for a trade deal of some formwilliamglenn said:
Given the number of times you post this perhaps you can point to a quote where she said it?HYUFD said:what she backs is a job offer requirement on immigration
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3839154/EU-workers-visa-skilled-job.html0 -
Historically great empires took generations to collapse. We seem to have found an amazing shortcut0
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Are we still talking about the BBC killing the top gear brand?Roger said:Historically great empires took generations to collapse. We seem to have found an amazing shortcut
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You hate England anyway Rog. Surely you can find some Scottish ancestry and then stay in the EU that way?Roger said:Historically great empires took generations to collapse. We seem to have found an amazing shortcut
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Spanked botties if that's the case.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think they've misinterpreted the PB/Polling Matters poll.Theuniondivvie said:
They've taken the Scottish sub-sample from the GB wide poll.
I've dropped Adam from Opinium a message to confirm that they haven't done any Scotland only Indyref polling.0 -
Do you realise that those people don't get to decide ?williamglenn said:
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We left the EU Empire, the Scots may leave the UK. Of course the UK is a union not an Empire and the Scots were up to their neck in building the British EmpireRoger said:Historically great empires took generations to collapse. We seem to have found an amazing shortcut
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Apparently Wessex wants to take back control.0
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Confirming the stereotype of German comedy.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
So over a third of Irish voters would oppose reunification, more excluding SF voters, plus of course the prospect of loyalist paramilitaries planting bombs in Dublin may concentrate minds a littlewilliamglenn said:0 -
Germany lost a lot of land in 1919 and 1945TheScreamingEagles said: 0 -
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I have a German friend who wants Gexit, he is in the minority but not all Germans are opposed and the more they have to bail out southern Europe the stronger that sentiment will beTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Gisela Stuart is making an extraordinarily muddled case why the Scots should remain part of the UK. She thinks May should refuse it. She clearly doesn't see the irony.
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They do actually. Consent north and south of the border is needed.another_richard said:0 -
Rental costs fall for the first time since 2010
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39253693
"The main factor was a big drop in rents in London and the south east of England.
In the capital they fell by nearly 5% in the past year to an average of £1,246 a month, and in the south east of England they fell by nearly 3% to £1,152."0 -
I don't like Greens. As soon as they got the Foreign Ministry in Germany they helped invade Yugoslavia, and since they got the chance in Scotland they have supported a minority xenophobic nationalist government without even going through the motions of having negotiations or consulting their membership. Harvie probably heard what Sturgeon said in the media and decided "yeah". They are supposedly an "opposition" party with a "shadow cabinet". I wonder whether they receive any state funding in Scotland for being an "opposition" party?RobD said:
Breaking manifesto commitments is in season...HYUFD said:
Patrick Harvie, the Green Party leader, has already backed the independence vote todayCyan said:
From the Scottish Greens' manifesto:HYUFD said:
They do with the Greens and the Greens back independence, that is a completely different prospect to Stormont where neither SF nor SF+SDLP have a majority or indeed Cardiff where PC are not only not the largest party but have no allies for independence eitherCyan said:
The SNP don't have a majority at Holyrood. Take another look!HYUFD said:
Yes, well unlike the SNP they do not have a majority at Stormont so toughPong said:http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-nireland-idUKKBN16K28E
"Northern Ireland's largest Irish nationalist party Sinn Fein on Monday said it wanted a referendum on splitting from the United Kingdom "as soon as possible", hours after Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon demanded a new independence vote."
"In assessing public appetite for a second referendum we will respect new kinds of citizen-led initiatives - for example, a call for a referendum signed by up to 1 million people on the electoral register."
Edit: it seems that yes, they do, under s97 of the Scotland Act 1998, "Assistance for Opposition Parties".0 -
Gisela Stuart looking crest-fallen on Newsnight.
Brexit, the gift that keeps on giving.0 -
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No doubt the Germans are very keen others don't follow the UK hence their mockery and of course it's massively in their interest this cosy little club with its single currency favouring German exporters continues.Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
Two world wars and one world cup.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
(deleted)0
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Another, from Lucid Talk, had 61/27.SeanT said:
The last reliable poll in Ulster - which will decide - showed desire for reunification was a massive 22% against 63% preferring to remain part of the UKwilliamglenn said:
They do actually. Consent north and south of the border is needed.another_richard said:
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3780/northern-ireland-border-poll-2016.aspx0 -
I see Sky have done another dodgy "instant" poll based upon customers who respond.0
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And they want Independence from ScotlandCyan said:(deleted)
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Can someone summarise Gisela Stuart's reasoning for Scotland to remain in the UK for me.
Not certain I followed her logic.0 -
Because it would make her feel guilty if they left.Pulpstar said:Can someone summarise Gisela Stuart's reasoning for Scotland to remain in the UK for me.
Not certain I followed her logic.0 -
It is a weighted poll and done in the same way as they did their NI one which yougov backed upFrancisUrquhart said:I see Sky have done another dodgy "instant" poll based upon customers who respond.
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Latest Dutch poll suggests some polarisation post-Turkish demo, both VVD and PVV up, making my £3 of the Greens at 50 look a bad bet. However, note that the poll has the Liberal VVD ahead for the 10th successive time, while Betfair makes PVV odds on. Do we know if Wilders tends to exceeed or undershoot his polling?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_20170 -
Scotland has not yet left the UK and May was not from the Tory rightScott_P said:0 -
Sean_F said:
Two world wars and one world cup.TheScreamingEagles said:
A week later an asylum seeker was running round that towns railway station swinging an axe at passers by. Where's the Merkel float?0 -
The weirdest thing about that graphic is that Sinn Fein are depicted in orangeHYUFD said:
So over a third of Irish voters would oppose reunification, more excluding SF voters, plus of course the prospect of loyalist paramilitaries planting bombs in Dublin may concentrate minds a littlewilliamglenn said:0 -
He reads like yet another Scot whining that the English won't save him from his fellow Scots.0
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Both me and Alastair Meeks are laying the PVV and backing VVD.NickPalmer said:Latest Dutch poll suggests some polarisation post-Turkish demo, both VVD and PVV up, making my £3 of the Greens at 50 look a bad bet. However, note that the poll has the Liberal VVD ahead for the 10th successive time, while Betfair makes PVV odds on. Do we know if Wilders tends to exceeed or undershoot his polling?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_20170 -
Well they are in effect the Orangemen of the Republic, as staunch in their views just on the other side of the spectrumBojabob said:
The weirdest thing about that graphic is that Sinn Fein are depicted in orangeHYUFD said:
So over a third of Irish voters would oppose reunification, more excluding SF voters, plus of course the prospect of loyalist paramilitaries planting bombs in Dublin may concentrate minds a littlewilliamglenn said:0 -
Interesting segment at 23:06 - Former Finnish PM calling Britain's hand utter bunk.0
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Wondering how many more of these political shocks the economy can take.
Wondering what's sustaining our current bubble, when it will go pop and what comes next.0 -
Rutte and Wilders also debated tonight so that may have a minor impactNickPalmer said:Latest Dutch poll suggests some polarisation post-Turkish demo, both VVD and PVV up, making my £3 of the Greens at 50 look a bad bet. However, note that the poll has the Liberal VVD ahead for the 10th successive time, while Betfair makes PVV odds on. Do we know if Wilders tends to exceeed or undershoot his polling?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_20170 -
That is not new - he has said that beforePulpstar said:Interesting segment at 23:06 - Former Finnish PM calling Britain's hand utter bunk.
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It was actually the British people who voted Leave and given the huge Tory lead at the moment they seem quite happy with the direction she is taking BrexitScott_P said:
but they have captured her, and the party.HYUFD said:May was not from the Tory right
Every action she has taken so far has been to appease the headbangers (even the budget shambles)0 -
I thought Germans actually had a good sense of humour, it doesn't seem that surprising.TheScreamingEagles said:
Given it is a poll of ROI only, and has no mention of any associated cost, I am honestly surprised so many oppose unification. Lots of people 'would like to see' a lot of things. I would have liked to have seen an EU than seemed to genuinely wish to reform, rather than see any reform as a stopgap to prevent contagion spreading, but that is not the EU I had to vote for or against.williamglenn said:0 -
What are you watching?Pulpstar said:Interesting segment at 23:06 - Former Finnish PM calling Britain's hand utter bunk.
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Oddest thing about the VVD is that they're in the ALDE grouping. That is the same one as the Lib Dems, I'd assumed they would be in the EPP - but that is the CDA in the Netherlands !HYUFD said:
Rutte and Wilders also debated tonight so that may have a minor impactNickPalmer said:Latest Dutch poll suggests some polarisation post-Turkish demo, both VVD and PVV up, making my £3 of the Greens at 50 look a bad bet. However, note that the poll has the Liberal VVD ahead for the 10th successive time, while Betfair makes PVV odds on. Do we know if Wilders tends to exceeed or undershoot his polling?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017
I guess the VVD is centre-right but very very very pro EU.0 -
Perhaps I am naiive, but I would think most of the other political leaders would be wary of saying Sturgeon has betrayed Scotland even though they think this is the wrong course - can we see who the Mail says 'accuses' her of betrayal?Theuniondivvie said:Mail being amazingly restrained in the circumstances.
Nah, only joking!
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/841412220072411137
I like use of '907 days' though. Some editor obviously thought 'less than 3 years' sounded like it was too long, so even though it leads to a number approaching 1000, the use of days focuses on the smaller increment.0 -
The manufacturing figures are the best in many years (aided by a falling currency) while the government deficit as a share of the economy is the lowest it has been in 15 years.Jonathan said:Wondering how many more of these political shocks the economy can take.
Wondering what's sustaining our current bubble, when it will go pop and what comes next.
Wages continue to outstrip inflation and the next set of budget measures will pump up consumption.
The only obvious threat in the next few months is a rise in the interest rate, but even that would only cancel the cut last summer.0 -
Listen to the EU and populism is an evil force, a contagion to be suppressed.Scott_P said:
Populism is popular?HYUFD said:It was actually the British people who voted Leave and given the huge Tory lead at the moment they seem quite happy with the direction she is taking Brexit
Truly a classroom every day here0 -
You would not know it from Ruttes' recent rhetoric on migrationPulpstar said:
Oddest thing about the VVD is that they're in the ALDE grouping. That is the same one as the Lib Dems, I'd assumed they would be in the EPP - but that is the CDA in the Netherlands !HYUFD said:
Rutte and Wilders also debated tonight so that may have a minor impactNickPalmer said:Latest Dutch poll suggests some polarisation post-Turkish demo, both VVD and PVV up, making my £3 of the Greens at 50 look a bad bet. However, note that the poll has the Liberal VVD ahead for the 10th successive time, while Betfair makes PVV odds on. Do we know if Wilders tends to exceeed or undershoot his polling?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017
I guess the VVD is centre-right but very very very pro EU.0 -
I was watching Newsnight, slightly behind.williamglenn said:
What are you watching?Pulpstar said:Interesting segment at 23:06 - Former Finnish PM calling Britain's hand utter bunk.
I don't think he's wrong - or more to the point Britain's hand isn't actually that weak. But the 1st -> 3rd largest 'bloc'/zone in the world (The EU) nevertheless has a stronger hand. Ace high flush beats a pair of tens.0 -
I'm going to the match in Monaco on Wednesday night sitting at the Monaco end. I'll hold up your poster. Not bad televised all around Europe!SeanT said:
I love Europe.Roger said:Gisela Stuart is making an extraordinarily muddled case why the Scots should remain part of the UK. She thinks May should refuse it. She clearly doesn't see the irony
Paris, today
https://twitter.com/tlhote/status/841340370340442112
PS They do some nice covers for you. I used to do the odd one a few years ago0 -
If she is 23, she was just 13 the last time the economy went pop. The world carries on as it is, right up until it doesn't. She has not seen much change as an adult. It is reasonable for her to assume things just carry on. Sadly we know better.SeanT said:
If you talk to the average Brit (especially under 35) they don't give a toss. They're not worried. They don't worry. Politics bores them rigidJonathan said:Wondering how many more of these political shocks the economy can take.
Wondering what's sustaining our current bubble, when it will go pop and what comes next.
I'm seeing a smart designer/journalist at the moment. 23. Well educated. Southern English. She's informed and articulate. We spoke on the phone a couple of hours ago, I said I was worried by today's political developments, she replied she was only vaguely aware of the Scottish thing in the most airy way, as in: "you mean that woman, Sturgeon, she said something? Oh yeah, OK, hmm, I heard someone mention that this morning, anyway I had my job interview, and...."
Most people don't care or even notice, even smart people, especially if they are young. They presume the world will carry on much as it is, and maybe they are right, and they are justifiably exercised by much more immediate concerns, like getting a job.
My hunch is that we're in a bit of a bubble right now. These political shocks are slowly weakening the foundations of Britain's economy. Something will give at some point.0 -
By that definition Finland should be getting ready for the re-embrace of Mother Russia.Roger said:
I saw it. Very funny. Something to the effect that when you've got as bad a hand as we have you should just throw in your cards!Pulpstar said:Interesting segment at 23:06 - Former Finnish PM calling Britain's hand utter bunk.
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If Britain has that bad a hand with the EU, Scotland has an even worse one with the rUKPulpstar said:
I was watching Newsnight, slightly behind.williamglenn said:
What are you watching?Pulpstar said:Interesting segment at 23:06 - Former Finnish PM calling Britain's hand utter bunk.
I don't think he's wrong - or more to the point Britain's hand isn't actually that weak. But the 1st -> 3rd largest 'bloc'/zone in the world (The EU) nevertheless has a stronger hand. Ace high flush beats a pair of tens.0 -
https://twitter.com/sharpethinking/status/841432842374696960HYUFD said:
You would not know it from Ruttes' recent rhetoric on migrationPulpstar said:
Oddest thing about the VVD is that they're in the ALDE grouping. That is the same one as the Lib Dems, I'd assumed they would be in the EPP - but that is the CDA in the Netherlands !HYUFD said:
Rutte and Wilders also debated tonight so that may have a minor impactNickPalmer said:Latest Dutch poll suggests some polarisation post-Turkish demo, both VVD and PVV up, making my £3 of the Greens at 50 look a bad bet. However, note that the poll has the Liberal VVD ahead for the 10th successive time, while Betfair makes PVV odds on. Do we know if Wilders tends to exceeed or undershoot his polling?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017
I guess the VVD is centre-right but very very very pro EU.
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My Mother...that's why I'm so relaxed about the crumbling empireTwistedFireStopper said:
You hate England anyway Rog. Surely you can find some Scottish ancestry and then stay in the EU that way?Roger said:Historically great empires took generations to collapse. We seem to have found an amazing shortcut
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Personally I think the SNP will do well to even get near the wave of inspiration they created last time. Massive rallies, Yes posters everywhere, non voters and young people coming out to vote in their droves, social media bombardment, armies of volunteers knocking on doors. Are the Scottish Nationalists going to be motivated enough to do all that again? I can't see it, there was something fresh and organic about the original movement that can never be replicated.0
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With their debts, job insecurities, housing problems and no pension provisions young people can't afford to think about 'big issues'.Jonathan said:
If she is 23, she was just 13 the last time the economy went pop. The world carries on as it is, right up until it doesn't. She has not seen much change as an adult. It is reasonable for her to assume things just carry on. Sadly we know better.SeanT said:
If you talk to the average Brit (especially under 35) they don't give a toss. They're not worried. They don't worry. Politics bores them rigidJonathan said:Wondering how many more of these political shocks the economy can take.
Wondering what's sustaining our current bubble, when it will go pop and what comes next.
I'm seeing a smart designer/journalist at the moment. 23. Well educated. Southern English. She's informed and articulate. We spoke on the phone a couple of hours ago, I said I was worried by today's political developments, she replied she was only vaguely aware of the Scottish thing in the most airy way, as in: "you mean that woman, Sturgeon, she said something? Oh yeah, OK, hmm, I heard someone mention that this morning, anyway I had my job interview, and...."
Most people don't care or even notice, even smart people, especially if they are young. They presume the world will carry on much as it is, and maybe they are right, and they are justifiably exercised by much more immediate concerns, like getting a job.
My hunch is that we're in a bit of a bubble right now. These political shocks are slowly weakening the foundations of Britain's economy. Something will give at some point.
Unless they happen to meet a fabulously rich and generous old bloke
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Less than 22 thousand hours since the last vote ...kle4 said:
Perhaps I am naiive, but I would think most of the other political leaders would be wary of saying Sturgeon has betrayed Scotland even though they think this is the wrong course - can we see who the Mail says 'accuses' her of betrayal?Theuniondivvie said:Mail being amazingly restrained in the circumstances.
Nah, only joking!
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/841412220072411137
I like use of '907 days' though. Some editor obviously thought 'less than 3 years' sounded like it was too long, so even though it leads to a number approaching 1000, the use of days focuses on the smaller increment.0 -
They are in control of both the process and the timing,when it's in Britain's interest to get a deal sewn up quickly. So, yeah, they are in a powerful position.Pulpstar said:
I was watching Newsnight, slightly behind.williamglenn said:
What are you watching?Pulpstar said:Interesting segment at 23:06 - Former Finnish PM calling Britain's hand utter bunk.
I don't think he's wrong - or more to the point Britain's hand isn't actually that weak. But the 1st -> 3rd largest 'bloc'/zone in the world (The EU) nevertheless has a stronger hand. Ace high flush beats a pair of tens.
Brexit success for Britain depends on the good will of the EU who have an interest in Brexit not being seen to succeed,
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Great comparisonPulpstar said:
https://twitter.com/sharpethinking/status/841432842374696960HYUFD said:
You would not know it from Ruttes' recent rhetoric on migrationPulpstar said:
Oddest thing about the VVD is that they're in the ALDE grouping. That is the same one as the Lib Dems, I'd assumed they would be in the EPP - but that is the CDA in the Netherlands !HYUFD said:
Rutte and Wilders also debated tonight so that may have a minor impactNickPalmer said:Latest Dutch poll suggests some polarisation post-Turkish demo, both VVD and PVV up, making my £3 of the Greens at 50 look a bad bet. However, note that the poll has the Liberal VVD ahead for the 10th successive time, while Betfair makes PVV odds on. Do we know if Wilders tends to exceeed or undershoot his polling?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017
I guess the VVD is centre-right but very very very pro EU.0 -
They have a core of dedicated support for independence that will ensure massive rallies and posters will be much in evidence, I am sure. As for the young coming out in their droves again, well, the young are presumably still very much in favour once again, and I imagine the point will be made that to fail once is a setback, but to fail twice, with the backdrop of Brexit? That might mean no other chance even in a young person's life. If the young don't turn out as they did last time, they can only have themselves to blame if they whinge about it for 50 years.Artist said:Personally I think the SNP will do well to even get near the wave of inspiration they created last time. Massive rallies, Yes posters everywhere, non voters and young people coming out to vote in their droves, social media bombardment, armies of volunteers knocking on doors. Are the Scottish Nationalists going to be motivated enough to do all that again? I can't see it, there was something fresh and organic about the original movement that can never be replicated.
Night all. It's going to be a long few years.0 -
Malfoy and Wilders even seem to be making a similar expression.HYUFD said:
Great comparisonPulpstar said:
https://twitter.com/sharpethinking/status/841432842374696960HYUFD said:
You would not know it from Ruttes' recent rhetoric on migrationPulpstar said:
Oddest thing about the VVD is that they're in the ALDE grouping. That is the same one as the Lib Dems, I'd assumed they would be in the EPP - but that is the CDA in the Netherlands !HYUFD said:
Rutte and Wilders also debated tonight so that may have a minor impactNickPalmer said:Latest Dutch poll suggests some polarisation post-Turkish demo, both VVD and PVV up, making my £3 of the Greens at 50 look a bad bet. However, note that the poll has the Liberal VVD ahead for the 10th successive time, while Betfair makes PVV odds on. Do we know if Wilders tends to exceeed or undershoot his polling?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017
I guess the VVD is centre-right but very very very pro EU.0 -
Depends on how you define success, for some Leavers controlling immigration was all and staying in the single market with immigration unchecked would be a Brexit failureFF43 said:
They are in control of both the process and the timing,when it's in Britain's interest to get a deal sewn up quickly. So, yeah, they are in a powerful position.Pulpstar said:
I was watching Newsnight, slightly behind.williamglenn said:
What are you watching?Pulpstar said:Interesting segment at 23:06 - Former Finnish PM calling Britain's hand utter bunk.
I don't think he's wrong - or more to the point Britain's hand isn't actually that weak. But the 1st -> 3rd largest 'bloc'/zone in the world (The EU) nevertheless has a stronger hand. Ace high flush beats a pair of tens.
Brexit success for Britain depends on the good will of the EU who have an interest in Brexit not being seen to succeed,0 -
Well, that has proven a bit of an issue, politically...SeanT said:
Remember our population has increased by about 8m in 20 years.Jonathan said:
If she is 23, she was just 13 the last time the economy went pop. The world carries on as it is, right up until it doesn't. She has not seen much change as an adult. It is reasonable for her to assume things just carry on. Sadly we know better.SeanT said:
If you talk to the average Brit (especially under 35) they don't give a toss. They're not worried. They don't worry. Politics bores them rigidJonathan said:Wondering how many more of these political shocks the economy can take.
Wondering what's sustaining our current bubble, when it will go pop and what comes next.
I'm seeing a smart designer/journalist at the moment. 23. Well educated. Southern English. She's informed and articulate. We spoke on the phone a couple of hours ago, I said I was worried by today's political developments, she replied she was only vaguely aware of the Scottish thing in the most airy way, as in: "you mean that woman, Sturgeon, she said something? Oh yeah, OK, hmm, I heard someone mention that this morning, anyway I had my job interview, and...."
Most people don't care or even notice, even smart people, especially if they are young. They presume the world will carry on much as it is, and maybe they are right, and they are justifiably exercised by much more immediate concerns, like getting a job.
My hunch is that we're in a bit of a bubble right now. These political shocks are slowly weakening the foundations of Britain's economy. Something will give at some point.
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Although Wilders' hair is even more dramatic than the actor'skle4 said:
Malfoy and Wilders even seem to be making a similar expression.HYUFD said:
Great comparisonPulpstar said:
https://twitter.com/sharpethinking/status/841432842374696960HYUFD said:
You would not know it from Ruttes' recent rhetoric on migrationPulpstar said:
Oddest thing about the VVD is that they're in the ALDE grouping. That is the same one as the Lib Dems, I'd assumed they would be in the EPP - but that is the CDA in the Netherlands !HYUFD said:
Rutte and Wilders also debated tonight so that may have a minor impactNickPalmer said:Latest Dutch poll suggests some polarisation post-Turkish demo, both VVD and PVV up, making my £3 of the Greens at 50 look a bad bet. However, note that the poll has the Liberal VVD ahead for the 10th successive time, while Betfair makes PVV odds on. Do we know if Wilders tends to exceeed or undershoot his polling?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017
I guess the VVD is centre-right but very very very pro EU.0 -
I hope your right. But in my industry, there are signs of overheating. This is what a bubble feels like.SeanT said:
I totally understand your thinking. I'm just not sure that's true any more. There is a kind of underlying vivacity in the British economy, based on sheer size and youthful enthusiasm. Remember our population has increased by about 8m in 20 years.Jonathan said:
If she is 23, she was just 13 the last time the economy went pop. The world carries on as it is, right up until it doesn't. She has not seen much change as an adult. It is reasonable for her to assume things just carry on. Sadly we know better.SeanT said:
If you talk to the average Brit (especially under 35) they don't give a toss. They're not worried. They don't worry. Politics bores them rigidJonathan said:Wondering how many more of these political shocks the economy can take.
Wondering what's sustaining our current bubble, when it will go pop and what comes next.
I'm seeing a smart designer/journalist at the moment. 23. Well educated. Southern English. She's informed and articulate. We spoke on the phone a couple of hours ago, I said I was worried by today's political developments, she replied she was only vaguely aware of the Scottish thing in the most airy way, as in: "you mean that woman, Sturgeon, she said something? Oh yeah, OK, hmm, I heard someone mention that this morning, anyway I had my job interview, and...."
Most people don't care or even notice, even smart people, especially if they are young. They presume the world will carry on much as it is, and maybe they are right, and they are justifiably exercised by much more immediate concerns, like getting a job.
My hunch is that we're in a bit of a bubble right now. These political shocks are slowly weakening the foundations of Britain's economy. Something will give at some point.
This gives momentum. It is very possible we will simply shrug off Brexit, and nervous oldsters like me (and you, tho you are younger!) will be surprised on the upside.0 -
In my industry the weaker pound is doing us nicely at the moment. Might well be the last hurrah before hard Brexit does us in though :>Jonathan said:
I hope your right. But in my industry, there are signs of overheating. This is what a bubble feels like.SeanT said:
I totally understand your thinking. I'm just not sure that's true any more. There is a kind of underlying vivacity in the British economy, based on sheer size and youthful enthusiasm. Remember our population has increased by about 8m in 20 years.Jonathan said:
If she is 23, she was just 13 the last time the economy went pop. The world carries on as it is, right up until it doesn't. She has not seen much change as an adult. It is reasonable for her to assume things just carry on. Sadly we know better.SeanT said:
If you talk to the average Brit (especially under 35) they don't give a toss. They're not worried. They don't worry. Politics bores them rigidJonathan said:Wondering how many more of these political shocks the economy can take.
Wondering what's sustaining our current bubble, when it will go pop and what comes next.
I'm seeing a smart designer/journalist at the moment. 23. Well educated. Southern English. She's informed and articulate. We spoke on the phone a couple of hours ago, I said I was worried by today's political developments, she replied she was only vaguely aware of the Scottish thing in the most airy way, as in: "you mean that woman, Sturgeon, she said something? Oh yeah, OK, hmm, I heard someone mention that this morning, anyway I had my job interview, and...."
Most people don't care or even notice, even smart people, especially if they are young. They presume the world will carry on much as it is, and maybe they are right, and they are justifiably exercised by much more immediate concerns, like getting a job.
My hunch is that we're in a bit of a bubble right now. These political shocks are slowly weakening the foundations of Britain's economy. Something will give at some point.
This gives momentum. It is very possible we will simply shrug off Brexit, and nervous oldsters like me (and you, tho you are younger!) will be surprised on the upside.0 -
They've got a stronger cause this time. Last time it was a few years of a Tory government that they hadn't voted for. This time it's a future that is about to be comprehensively fucked by an even worse Tory government who are likely to be around for at least a generation.kle4 said:
They have a core of dedicated support for independence that will ensure massive rallies and posters will be much in evidence, I am sure. As for the young coming out in their droves again, well, the young are presumably still very much in favour once again, and I imagine the point will be made that to fail once is a setback, but to fail twice, with the backdrop of Brexit? That might mean no other chance even in a young person's life. If the young don't turn out as they did last time, they can only have themselves to blame if they whinge about it for 50 years.Artist said:Personally I think the SNP will do well to even get near the wave of inspiration they created last time. Massive rallies, Yes posters everywhere, non voters and young people coming out to vote in their droves, social media bombardment, armies of volunteers knocking on doors. Are the Scottish Nationalists going to be motivated enough to do all that again? I can't see it, there was something fresh and organic about the original movement that can never be replicated.
Night all. It's going to be a long few years.
I think they'll win easily and I think the Irish will follow0 -
20,000 members at that time. 120,000 now. £170,000 raised in 12 hours.Artist said:Personally I think the SNP will do well to even get near the wave of inspiration they created last time. Massive rallies, Yes posters everywhere, non voters and young people coming out to vote in their droves, social media bombardment, armies of volunteers knocking on doors. Are the Scottish Nationalists going to be motivated enough to do all that again? I can't see it, there was something fresh and organic about the original movement that can never be replicated.
0 -
All that increase in population has achieved is to reduce the growth rate per head.SeanT said:
I totally understand your thinking. I'm just not sure that's true any more. There is a kind of underlying vivacity in the British economy, based on sheer size and youthful enthusiasm. Remember our population has increased by about 8m in 20 years.Jonathan said:
If she is 23, she was just 13 the last time the economy went pop. The world carries on as it is, right up until it doesn't. She has not seen much change as an adult. It is reasonable for her to assume things just carry on. Sadly we know better.SeanT said:
If you talk to the average Brit (especially under 35) they don't give a toss. They're not worried. They don't worry. Politics bores them rigidJonathan said:Wondering how many more of these political shocks the economy can take.
Wondering what's sustaining our current bubble, when it will go pop and what comes next.
I'm seeing a smart designer/journalist at the moment. 23. Well educated. Southern English. She's informed and articulate. We spoke on the phone a couple of hours ago, I said I was worried by today's political developments, she replied she was only vaguely aware of the Scottish thing in the most airy way, as in: "you mean that woman, Sturgeon, she said something? Oh yeah, OK, hmm, I heard someone mention that this morning, anyway I had my job interview, and...."
Most people don't care or even notice, even smart people, especially if they are young. They presume the world will carry on much as it is, and maybe they are right, and they are justifiably exercised by much more immediate concerns, like getting a job.
My hunch is that we're in a bit of a bubble right now. These political shocks are slowly weakening the foundations of Britain's economy. Something will give at some point.
This gives momentum. It is very possible we will simply shrug off Brexit, and nervous oldsters like me (and you, tho you are younger!) will be surprised on the upside.
And the 'underlying vivacity' ** is based upon a trillion pounds of government borrowing.
** What is this 'underlying vivacity' ? Property speculation and posh restaurants in London ?0 -
Almost as impressive as Corbyn.OUT said:
20,000 members at that time. 120,000 now. £170,000 raised in 12 hours.Artist said:Personally I think the SNP will do well to even get near the wave of inspiration they created last time. Massive rallies, Yes posters everywhere, non voters and young people coming out to vote in their droves, social media bombardment, armies of volunteers knocking on doors. Are the Scottish Nationalists going to be motivated enough to do all that again? I can't see it, there was something fresh and organic about the original movement that can never be replicated.
0 -
Sad times. Still have the welsh though, good old Wales.Roger said:
They've got a stronger cause this time. Last time it was a few years of a Tory government that they hadn't voted for. This time it's a future that is about to be comprehensively fucked by an even worse Tory government who are likely to be around for at least a generation.kle4 said:
They have a core of dedicated support for independence that will ensure massive rallies and posters will be much in evidence, I am sure. As for the young coming out in their droves again, well, the young are presumably still very much in favour once again, and I imagine the point will be made that to fail once is a setback, but to fail twice, with the backdrop of Brexit? That might mean no other chance even in a young person's life. If the young don't turn out as they did last time, they can only have themselves to blame if they whinge about it for 50 years.Artist said:Personally I think the SNP will do well to even get near the wave of inspiration they created last time. Massive rallies, Yes posters everywhere, non voters and young people coming out to vote in their droves, social media bombardment, armies of volunteers knocking on doors. Are the Scottish Nationalists going to be motivated enough to do all that again? I can't see it, there was something fresh and organic about the original movement that can never be replicated.
Night all. It's going to be a long few years.
I think they'll win easily and I think the Irish will follow0 -
if you were BAe Systems, would you invest in Clyde shipbuilding knowing the Scottish government will be campaigning to cut you off from your biggest customer?MonikerDiCanio said:
Well said.Saltire said:Sturgeon calling for the indyref now has a feeling of being rather rushed, it is by no means certain that she will be on the winning side and certainly it is along way from when the talk was of waiting until the opinion polls showed a constant lead for Yes before they would call for a 2nd referendum.
Personally I think that it is highly irresponsible of the SNP to hold a 2nd referendum just now. They will be asking the Scottish public to decide between a status quo that will very uncertain since we will have no practical experience of living in post-Brexit Britain and asked to compare that with an even less certain independent future with probably a completely unknown relationship with both rUK and also the EU.
It would be much better to wait until we had lived through Brexit for a few years and have a much better idea of how it has actually impacted on the country rather than having to guess. If Brexit is a disaster then I'm sure that Yes would win comfortably and if Brexit is a success then there is a reasonable chance that the SNP would not be in position to call the referendum in the first place.
Part of the reason why I think they have decided to go for it now is that they know that they might not have the votes in Holyrood in the next Parliament and it is harder to have a referendum in 2020 or 2021 due to a GE and Holyrood elections.
I just hope Sturgeon's hasty decision doesn't put off too many investors or worse still encourages businesses to up sticks and head south.0 -
One of my major suppliers is in Aberdeen. I may well be looking for a new supplier after the regular management meeting tomorrow morning.CarlottaVance said:
if you were BAe Systems, would you invest in Clyde shipbuilding knowing the Scottish government will be campaigning to cut you off from your biggest customer?MonikerDiCanio said:
Well said.Saltire said:Sturgeon calling for the indyref now has a feeling of being rather rushed, it is by no means certain that she will be on the winning side and certainly it is along way from when the talk was of waiting until the opinion polls showed a constant lead for Yes before they would call for a 2nd referendum.
Personally I think that it is highly irresponsible of the SNP to hold a 2nd referendum just now. They will be asking the Scottish public to decide between a status quo that will very uncertain since we will have no practical experience of living in post-Brexit Britain and asked to compare that with an even less certain independent future with probably a completely unknown relationship with both rUK and also the EU.
It would be much better to wait until we had lived through Brexit for a few years and have a much better idea of how it has actually impacted on the country rather than having to guess. If Brexit is a disaster then I'm sure that Yes would win comfortably and if Brexit is a success then there is a reasonable chance that the SNP would not be in position to call the referendum in the first place.
Part of the reason why I think they have decided to go for it now is that they know that they might not have the votes in Holyrood in the next Parliament and it is harder to have a referendum in 2020 or 2021 due to a GE and Holyrood elections.
I just hope Sturgeon's hasty decision doesn't put off too many investors or worse still encourages businesses to up sticks and head south.0 -
Similar conversations being held all over Europe?ThreeQuidder said:
One of my major suppliers is in Aberdeen. I may well be looking for a new supplier after the regular management meeting tomorrow morning.CarlottaVance said:
if you were BAe Systems, would you invest in Clyde shipbuilding knowing the Scottish government will be campaigning to cut you off from your biggest customer?MonikerDiCanio said:
Well said.Saltire said:Sturgeon calling for the indyref now has a feeling of being rather rushed, it is by no means certain that she will be on the winning side and certainly it is along way from when the talk was of waiting until the opinion polls showed a constant lead for Yes before they would call for a 2nd referendum.
Personally I think that it is highly irresponsible of the SNP to hold a 2nd referendum just now. They will be asking the Scottish public to decide between a status quo that will very uncertain since we will have no practical experience of living in post-Brexit Britain and asked to compare that with an even less certain independent future with probably a completely unknown relationship with both rUK and also the EU.
It would be much better to wait until we had lived through Brexit for a few years and have a much better idea of how it has actually impacted on the country rather than having to guess. If Brexit is a disaster then I'm sure that Yes would win comfortably and if Brexit is a success then there is a reasonable chance that the SNP would not be in position to call the referendum in the first place.
Part of the reason why I think they have decided to go for it now is that they know that they might not have the votes in Holyrood in the next Parliament and it is harder to have a referendum in 2020 or 2021 due to a GE and Holyrood elections.
I just hope Sturgeon's hasty decision doesn't put off too many investors or worse still encourages businesses to up sticks and head south.0 -
Are your colleagues aware that you make business decisions based on punishing politicians you don't like?ThreeQuidder said:
One of my major suppliers is in Aberdeen. I may well be looking for a new supplier after the regular management meeting tomorrow morning.CarlottaVance said:
if you were BAe Systems, would you invest in Clyde shipbuilding knowing the Scottish government will be campaigning to cut you off from your biggest customer?MonikerDiCanio said:
Well said.Saltire said:Sturgeon calling for the indyref now has a feeling of being rather rushed, it is by no means certain that she will be on the winning side and certainly it is along way from when the talk was of waiting until the opinion polls showed a constant lead for Yes before they would call for a 2nd referendum.
Personally I think that it is highly irresponsible of the SNP to hold a 2nd referendum just now. They will be asking the Scottish public to decide between a status quo that will very uncertain since we will have no practical experience of living in post-Brexit Britain and asked to compare that with an even less certain independent future with probably a completely unknown relationship with both rUK and also the EU.
It would be much better to wait until we had lived through Brexit for a few years and have a much better idea of how it has actually impacted on the country rather than having to guess. If Brexit is a disaster then I'm sure that Yes would win comfortably and if Brexit is a success then there is a reasonable chance that the SNP would not be in position to call the referendum in the first place.
Part of the reason why I think they have decided to go for it now is that they know that they might not have the votes in Holyrood in the next Parliament and it is harder to have a referendum in 2020 or 2021 due to a GE and Holyrood elections.
I just hope Sturgeon's hasty decision doesn't put off too many investors or worse still encourages businesses to up sticks and head south.0 -
Sad times. Still have the welsh though, good old Wales.
Yup and we are going nowhere : )
6% back Welsh independence, probably lower than Cornwall.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-39114914
0 -
There is genuine anger and dismay here in Scotland at Sturgeon's announcement today, we do not want go through another Indy Ref campaign. A lot of Indy Ref No voters who also voted to Remain in the EU Ref, did not do so for Sturgeon to then use that second vote to try to void their first in the 2014 Indy Ref!! The silent majority spoke in 2014, and they are going to feel very let down and angry at the behaviour of both the SNP and the Greens at Holyrood.
If the Yes campaign had won just two an half years ago, Scotland would have already suffered a hard Brexit!!0 -
Read that again. I'm not the one who will be making the decision.williamglenn said:
Are your colleagues aware that you make business decisions based on punishing politicians you don't like?ThreeQuidder said:
One of my major suppliers is in Aberdeen. I may well be looking for a new supplier after the regular management meeting tomorrow morning.CarlottaVance said:
if you were BAe Systems, would you invest in Clyde shipbuilding knowing the Scottish government will be campaigning to cut you off from your biggest customer?MonikerDiCanio said:
Well said.Saltire said:Sturgeon calling for the indyref now has a feeling of being rather rushed, it is by no means certain that she will be on the winning side and certainly it is along way from when the talk was of waiting until the opinion polls showed a constant lead for Yes before they would call for a 2nd referendum.
Personally I think that it is highly irresponsible of the SNP to hold a 2nd referendum just now. They will be asking the Scottish public to decide between a status quo that will very uncertain since we will have no practical experience of living in post-Brexit Britain and asked to compare that with an even less certain independent future with probably a completely unknown relationship with both rUK and also the EU.
It would be much better to wait until we had lived through Brexit for a few years and have a much better idea of how it has actually impacted on the country rather than having to guess. If Brexit is a disaster then I'm sure that Yes would win comfortably and if Brexit is a success then there is a reasonable chance that the SNP would not be in position to call the referendum in the first place.
Part of the reason why I think they have decided to go for it now is that they know that they might not have the votes in Holyrood in the next Parliament and it is harder to have a referendum in 2020 or 2021 due to a GE and Holyrood elections.
I just hope Sturgeon's hasty decision doesn't put off too many investors or worse still encourages businesses to up sticks and head south.0
