Coming after the big guest....Nicola sturgeons biographer to tell us about sindy. I am presuming her hairdresser was busy.
Newsnight is great
Not what the audience figures say. There are twitch channels on at the moment with more viewers than newsnight ie more people want to watch a spotty teenager in his parents garage play video games.
"Northern Ireland's largest Irish nationalist party Sinn Fein on Monday said it wanted a referendum on splitting from the United Kingdom "as soon as possible", hours after Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon demanded a new independence vote."
Yes, well unlike the SNP they do not have a majority at Stormont so tough
The SNP don't have a majority at Holyrood. Take another look!
They do with the Greens and the Greens back independence, that is a completely different prospect to Stormont where neither SF nor SF+SDLP have a majority or indeed Cardiff where PC are not only not the largest party but have no allies for independence either
From the Scottish Greens' manifesto:
"In assessing public appetite for a second referendum we will respect new kinds of citizen-led initiatives - for example, a call for a referendum signed by up to 1 million people on the electoral register."
Patrick Harvie, the Green Party leader, has already backed the independence vote today
"Northern Ireland's largest Irish nationalist party Sinn Fein on Monday said it wanted a referendum on splitting from the United Kingdom "as soon as possible", hours after Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon demanded a new independence vote."
Yes, well unlike the SNP they do not have a majority at Stormont so tough
The SNP don't have a majority at Holyrood. Take another look!
They do with the Greens and the Greens back independence, that is a completely different prospect to Stormont where neither SF nor SF+SDLP have a majority or indeed Cardiff where PC are not only not the largest party but have no allies for independence either
From the Scottish Greens' manifesto:
"In assessing public appetite for a second referendum we will respect new kinds of citizen-led initiatives - for example, a call for a referendum signed by up to 1 million people on the electoral register."
Patrick Harvie, the Green Party leader, has already backed the independence vote today
what she backs is a job offer requirement on immigration
Given the number of times you post this perhaps you can point to a quote where she said it?
It has already been put to a Cabinet sub committee by Amber Rudd, EU workers will get a visa provided they have a skilled job to go to in the UK. Tourists and students would still have free access post Brexit. That is the basis of the immigration deal the UK government will offer the EU in return for a trade deal of some form http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3839154/EU-workers-visa-skilled-job.html
Is picking broccoli in the fens a skilled job? Or egg packing?
Well we can get some of the Leavers to get off their backsides and do those
Farmers need people who are actually going to get out of bed you know...
Well they managed too on June 23rd last year, we can reform the welfare system to ensure they do so every weekday
Historically great empires took generations to collapse. We seem to have found an amazing shortcut
We left the EU Empire, the Scots may leave the UK. Of course the UK is a union not an Empire and the Scots were up to their neck in building the British Empire
So over a third of Irish voters would oppose reunification, more excluding SF voters, plus of course the prospect of loyalist paramilitaries planting bombs in Dublin may concentrate minds a little
Historically great empires took generations to collapse. We seem to have found an amazing shortcut
It does look like we've pushed the self destruct button.
Even the Germans are mocking us
I have a German friend who wants Gexit, he is in the minority but not all Germans are opposed and the more they have to bail out southern Europe the stronger that sentiment will be
Gisela Stuart is making an extraordinarily muddled case why the Scots should remain part of the UK. She thinks May should refuse it. She clearly doesn't see the irony.
"The main factor was a big drop in rents in London and the south east of England.
In the capital they fell by nearly 5% in the past year to an average of £1,246 a month, and in the south east of England they fell by nearly 3% to £1,152."
"Northern Ireland's largest Irish nationalist party Sinn Fein on Monday said it wanted a referendum on splitting from the United Kingdom "as soon as possible", hours after Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon demanded a new independence vote."
Yes, well unlike the SNP they do not have a majority at Stormont so tough
The SNP don't have a majority at Holyrood. Take another look!
They do with the Greens and the Greens back independence, that is a completely different prospect to Stormont where neither SF nor SF+SDLP have a majority or indeed Cardiff where PC are not only not the largest party but have no allies for independence either
From the Scottish Greens' manifesto:
"In assessing public appetite for a second referendum we will respect new kinds of citizen-led initiatives - for example, a call for a referendum signed by up to 1 million people on the electoral register."
Patrick Harvie, the Green Party leader, has already backed the independence vote today
Breaking manifesto commitments is in season...
I don't like Greens. As soon as they got the Foreign Ministry in Germany they helped invade Yugoslavia, and since they got the chance in Scotland they have supported a minority xenophobic nationalist government without even going through the motions of having negotiations or consulting their membership. Harvie probably heard what Sturgeon said in the media and decided "yeah". They are supposedly an "opposition" party with a "shadow cabinet". I wonder whether they receive any state funding in Scotland for being an "opposition" party?
Edit: it seems that yes, they do, under s97 of the Scotland Act 1998, "Assistance for Opposition Parties".
Gisela Stuart is making an extraordinarily muddled case why the Scots should remain part of the UK. She thinks May should refuse it. She clearly doesn't see the irony
Historically great empires took generations to collapse. We seem to have found an amazing shortcut
It does look like we've pushed the self destruct button.
Even the Germans are mocking us
Germany lost a lot of land in 1919 and 1945
No doubt the Germans are very keen others don't follow the UK hence their mockery and of course it's massively in their interest this cosy little club with its single currency favouring German exporters continues.
Do you realise that those people don't get to decide ?
They do actually. Consent north and south of the border is needed.
The last reliable poll in Ulster - which will decide - showed desire for reunification was a massive 22% against 63% preferring to remain part of the UK
Latest Dutch poll suggests some polarisation post-Turkish demo, both VVD and PVV up, making my £3 of the Greens at 50 look a bad bet. However, note that the poll has the Liberal VVD ahead for the 10th successive time, while Betfair makes PVV odds on. Do we know if Wilders tends to exceeed or undershoot his polling?
So over a third of Irish voters would oppose reunification, more excluding SF voters, plus of course the prospect of loyalist paramilitaries planting bombs in Dublin may concentrate minds a little
The weirdest thing about that graphic is that Sinn Fein are depicted in orange
Latest Dutch poll suggests some polarisation post-Turkish demo, both VVD and PVV up, making my £3 of the Greens at 50 look a bad bet. However, note that the poll has the Liberal VVD ahead for the 10th successive time, while Betfair makes PVV odds on. Do we know if Wilders tends to exceeed or undershoot his polling?
So if we Brexit and Scotland leave, I wonder whether Leavers here will see that as a good result. I imagine many will love the idea of a Balkan Britain.
So over a third of Irish voters would oppose reunification, more excluding SF voters, plus of course the prospect of loyalist paramilitaries planting bombs in Dublin may concentrate minds a little
The weirdest thing about that graphic is that Sinn Fein are depicted in orange
Well they are in effect the Orangemen of the Republic, as staunch in their views just on the other side of the spectrum
Wondering how many more of these political shocks the economy can take. Wondering what's sustaining our current bubble, when it will go pop and what comes next.
Latest Dutch poll suggests some polarisation post-Turkish demo, both VVD and PVV up, making my £3 of the Greens at 50 look a bad bet. However, note that the poll has the Liberal VVD ahead for the 10th successive time, while Betfair makes PVV odds on. Do we know if Wilders tends to exceeed or undershoot his polling?
Every action she has taken so far has been to appease the headbangers (even the budget shambles)
It was actually the British people who voted Leave and given the huge Tory lead at the moment they seem quite happy with the direction she is taking Brexit
Given it is a poll of ROI only, and has no mention of any associated cost, I am honestly surprised so many oppose unification. Lots of people 'would like to see' a lot of things. I would have liked to have seen an EU than seemed to genuinely wish to reform, rather than see any reform as a stopgap to prevent contagion spreading, but that is not the EU I had to vote for or against.
It was actually the British people who voted Leave and given the huge Tory lead at the moment they seem quite happy with the direction she is taking Brexit
Latest Dutch poll suggests some polarisation post-Turkish demo, both VVD and PVV up, making my £3 of the Greens at 50 look a bad bet. However, note that the poll has the Liberal VVD ahead for the 10th successive time, while Betfair makes PVV odds on. Do we know if Wilders tends to exceeed or undershoot his polling?
Rutte and Wilders also debated tonight so that may have a minor impact
Oddest thing about the VVD is that they're in the ALDE grouping. That is the same one as the Lib Dems, I'd assumed they would be in the EPP - but that is the CDA in the Netherlands ! I guess the VVD is centre-right but very very very pro EU.
Perhaps I am naiive, but I would think most of the other political leaders would be wary of saying Sturgeon has betrayed Scotland even though they think this is the wrong course - can we see who the Mail says 'accuses' her of betrayal?
I like use of '907 days' though. Some editor obviously thought 'less than 3 years' sounded like it was too long, so even though it leads to a number approaching 1000, the use of days focuses on the smaller increment.
Wondering how many more of these political shocks the economy can take. Wondering what's sustaining our current bubble, when it will go pop and what comes next.
The manufacturing figures are the best in many years (aided by a falling currency) while the government deficit as a share of the economy is the lowest it has been in 15 years.
Wages continue to outstrip inflation and the next set of budget measures will pump up consumption.
The only obvious threat in the next few months is a rise in the interest rate, but even that would only cancel the cut last summer.
It was actually the British people who voted Leave and given the huge Tory lead at the moment they seem quite happy with the direction she is taking Brexit
Populism is popular?
Truly a classroom every day here
Listen to the EU and populism is an evil force, a contagion to be suppressed.
Latest Dutch poll suggests some polarisation post-Turkish demo, both VVD and PVV up, making my £3 of the Greens at 50 look a bad bet. However, note that the poll has the Liberal VVD ahead for the 10th successive time, while Betfair makes PVV odds on. Do we know if Wilders tends to exceeed or undershoot his polling?
Rutte and Wilders also debated tonight so that may have a minor impact
Oddest thing about the VVD is that they're in the ALDE grouping. That is the same one as the Lib Dems, I'd assumed they would be in the EPP - but that is the CDA in the Netherlands ! I guess the VVD is centre-right but very very very pro EU.
You would not know it from Ruttes' recent rhetoric on migration
Interesting segment at 23:06 - Former Finnish PM calling Britain's hand utter bunk.
What are you watching?
I was watching Newsnight, slightly behind.
I don't think he's wrong - or more to the point Britain's hand isn't actually that weak. But the 1st -> 3rd largest 'bloc'/zone in the world (The EU) nevertheless has a stronger hand. Ace high flush beats a pair of tens.
Gisela Stuart is making an extraordinarily muddled case why the Scots should remain part of the UK. She thinks May should refuse it. She clearly doesn't see the irony
Wondering how many more of these political shocks the economy can take. Wondering what's sustaining our current bubble, when it will go pop and what comes next.
If you talk to the average Brit (especially under 35) they don't give a toss. They're not worried. They don't worry. Politics bores them rigid
I'm seeing a smart designer/journalist at the moment. 23. Well educated. Southern English. She's informed and articulate. We spoke on the phone a couple of hours ago, I said I was worried by today's political developments, she replied she was only vaguely aware of the Scottish thing in the most airy way, as in: "you mean that woman, Sturgeon, she said something? Oh yeah, OK, hmm, I heard someone mention that this morning, anyway I had my job interview, and...."
Most people don't care or even notice, even smart people, especially if they are young. They presume the world will carry on much as it is, and maybe they are right, and they are justifiably exercised by much more immediate concerns, like getting a job.
If she is 23, she was just 13 the last time the economy went pop. The world carries on as it is, right up until it doesn't. She has not seen much change as an adult. It is reasonable for her to assume things just carry on. Sadly we know better.
My hunch is that we're in a bit of a bubble right now. These political shocks are slowly weakening the foundations of Britain's economy. Something will give at some point.
Interesting segment at 23:06 - Former Finnish PM calling Britain's hand utter bunk.
What are you watching?
I was watching Newsnight, slightly behind.
I don't think he's wrong - or more to the point Britain's hand isn't actually that weak. But the 1st -> 3rd largest 'bloc'/zone in the world (The EU) nevertheless has a stronger hand. Ace high flush beats a pair of tens.
If Britain has that bad a hand with the EU, Scotland has an even worse one with the rUK
Latest Dutch poll suggests some polarisation post-Turkish demo, both VVD and PVV up, making my £3 of the Greens at 50 look a bad bet. However, note that the poll has the Liberal VVD ahead for the 10th successive time, while Betfair makes PVV odds on. Do we know if Wilders tends to exceeed or undershoot his polling?
Rutte and Wilders also debated tonight so that may have a minor impact
Oddest thing about the VVD is that they're in the ALDE grouping. That is the same one as the Lib Dems, I'd assumed they would be in the EPP - but that is the CDA in the Netherlands ! I guess the VVD is centre-right but very very very pro EU.
You would not know it from Ruttes' recent rhetoric on migration
Personally I think the SNP will do well to even get near the wave of inspiration they created last time. Massive rallies, Yes posters everywhere, non voters and young people coming out to vote in their droves, social media bombardment, armies of volunteers knocking on doors. Are the Scottish Nationalists going to be motivated enough to do all that again? I can't see it, there was something fresh and organic about the original movement that can never be replicated.
Wondering how many more of these political shocks the economy can take. Wondering what's sustaining our current bubble, when it will go pop and what comes next.
If you talk to the average Brit (especially under 35) they don't give a toss. They're not worried. They don't worry. Politics bores them rigid
I'm seeing a smart designer/journalist at the moment. 23. Well educated. Southern English. She's informed and articulate. We spoke on the phone a couple of hours ago, I said I was worried by today's political developments, she replied she was only vaguely aware of the Scottish thing in the most airy way, as in: "you mean that woman, Sturgeon, she said something? Oh yeah, OK, hmm, I heard someone mention that this morning, anyway I had my job interview, and...."
Most people don't care or even notice, even smart people, especially if they are young. They presume the world will carry on much as it is, and maybe they are right, and they are justifiably exercised by much more immediate concerns, like getting a job.
If she is 23, she was just 13 the last time the economy went pop. The world carries on as it is, right up until it doesn't. She has not seen much change as an adult. It is reasonable for her to assume things just carry on. Sadly we know better.
My hunch is that we're in a bit of a bubble right now. These political shocks are slowly weakening the foundations of Britain's economy. Something will give at some point.
With their debts, job insecurities, housing problems and no pension provisions young people can't afford to think about 'big issues'.
Unless they happen to meet a fabulously rich and generous old bloke
Perhaps I am naiive, but I would think most of the other political leaders would be wary of saying Sturgeon has betrayed Scotland even though they think this is the wrong course - can we see who the Mail says 'accuses' her of betrayal?
I like use of '907 days' though. Some editor obviously thought 'less than 3 years' sounded like it was too long, so even though it leads to a number approaching 1000, the use of days focuses on the smaller increment.
Less than 22 thousand hours since the last vote ...
Interesting segment at 23:06 - Former Finnish PM calling Britain's hand utter bunk.
What are you watching?
I was watching Newsnight, slightly behind.
I don't think he's wrong - or more to the point Britain's hand isn't actually that weak. But the 1st -> 3rd largest 'bloc'/zone in the world (The EU) nevertheless has a stronger hand. Ace high flush beats a pair of tens.
They are in control of both the process and the timing,when it's in Britain's interest to get a deal sewn up quickly. So, yeah, they are in a powerful position.
Brexit success for Britain depends on the good will of the EU who have an interest in Brexit not being seen to succeed,
Personally I think the SNP will do well to even get near the wave of inspiration they created last time. Massive rallies, Yes posters everywhere, non voters and young people coming out to vote in their droves, social media bombardment, armies of volunteers knocking on doors. Are the Scottish Nationalists going to be motivated enough to do all that again? I can't see it, there was something fresh and organic about the original movement that can never be replicated.
They have a core of dedicated support for independence that will ensure massive rallies and posters will be much in evidence, I am sure. As for the young coming out in their droves again, well, the young are presumably still very much in favour once again, and I imagine the point will be made that to fail once is a setback, but to fail twice, with the backdrop of Brexit? That might mean no other chance even in a young person's life. If the young don't turn out as they did last time, they can only have themselves to blame if they whinge about it for 50 years.
Latest Dutch poll suggests some polarisation post-Turkish demo, both VVD and PVV up, making my £3 of the Greens at 50 look a bad bet. However, note that the poll has the Liberal VVD ahead for the 10th successive time, while Betfair makes PVV odds on. Do we know if Wilders tends to exceeed or undershoot his polling?
Rutte and Wilders also debated tonight so that may have a minor impact
Oddest thing about the VVD is that they're in the ALDE grouping. That is the same one as the Lib Dems, I'd assumed they would be in the EPP - but that is the CDA in the Netherlands ! I guess the VVD is centre-right but very very very pro EU.
You would not know it from Ruttes' recent rhetoric on migration
Latest Dutch poll suggests some polarisation post-Turkish demo, both VVD and PVV up, making my £3 of the Greens at 50 look a bad bet. However, note that the poll has the Liberal VVD ahead for the 10th successive time, while Betfair makes PVV odds on. Do we know if Wilders tends to exceeed or undershoot his polling?
Rutte and Wilders also debated tonight so that may have a minor impact
Oddest thing about the VVD is that they're in the ALDE grouping. That is the same one as the Lib Dems, I'd assumed they would be in the EPP - but that is the CDA in the Netherlands ! I guess the VVD is centre-right but very very very pro EU.
You would not know it from Ruttes' recent rhetoric on migration
Interesting segment at 23:06 - Former Finnish PM calling Britain's hand utter bunk.
What are you watching?
I was watching Newsnight, slightly behind.
I don't think he's wrong - or more to the point Britain's hand isn't actually that weak. But the 1st -> 3rd largest 'bloc'/zone in the world (The EU) nevertheless has a stronger hand. Ace high flush beats a pair of tens.
They are in control of both the process and the timing,when it's in Britain's interest to get a deal sewn up quickly. So, yeah, they are in a powerful position.
Brexit success for Britain depends on the good will of the EU who have an interest in Brexit not being seen to succeed,
Depends on how you define success, for some Leavers controlling immigration was all and staying in the single market with immigration unchecked would be a Brexit failure
Wondering how many more of these political shocks the economy can take. Wondering what's sustaining our current bubble, when it will go pop and what comes next.
If you talk to the average Brit (especially under 35) they don't give a toss. They're not worried. They don't worry. Politics bores them rigid
I'm seeing a smart designer/journalist at the moment. 23. Well educated. Southern English. She's informed and articulate. We spoke on the phone a couple of hours ago, I said I was worried by today's political developments, she replied she was only vaguely aware of the Scottish thing in the most airy way, as in: "you mean that woman, Sturgeon, she said something? Oh yeah, OK, hmm, I heard someone mention that this morning, anyway I had my job interview, and...."
Most people don't care or even notice, even smart people, especially if they are young. They presume the world will carry on much as it is, and maybe they are right, and they are justifiably exercised by much more immediate concerns, like getting a job.
If she is 23, she was just 13 the last time the economy went pop. The world carries on as it is, right up until it doesn't. She has not seen much change as an adult. It is reasonable for her to assume things just carry on. Sadly we know better.
My hunch is that we're in a bit of a bubble right now. These political shocks are slowly weakening the foundations of Britain's economy. Something will give at some point.
Remember our population has increased by about 8m in 20 years.
Well, that has proven a bit of an issue, politically...
Latest Dutch poll suggests some polarisation post-Turkish demo, both VVD and PVV up, making my £3 of the Greens at 50 look a bad bet. However, note that the poll has the Liberal VVD ahead for the 10th successive time, while Betfair makes PVV odds on. Do we know if Wilders tends to exceeed or undershoot his polling?
Rutte and Wilders also debated tonight so that may have a minor impact
Oddest thing about the VVD is that they're in the ALDE grouping. That is the same one as the Lib Dems, I'd assumed they would be in the EPP - but that is the CDA in the Netherlands ! I guess the VVD is centre-right but very very very pro EU.
You would not know it from Ruttes' recent rhetoric on migration
Wondering how many more of these political shocks the economy can take. Wondering what's sustaining our current bubble, when it will go pop and what comes next.
If you talk to the average Brit (especially under 35) they don't give a toss. They're not worried. They don't worry. Politics bores them rigid
I'm seeing a smart designer/journalist at the moment. 23. Well educated. Southern English. She's informed and articulate. We spoke on the phone a couple of hours ago, I said I was worried by today's political developments, she replied she was only vaguely aware of the Scottish thing in the most airy way, as in: "you mean that woman, Sturgeon, she said something? Oh yeah, OK, hmm, I heard someone mention that this morning, anyway I had my job interview, and...."
Most people don't care or even notice, even smart people, especially if they are young. They presume the world will carry on much as it is, and maybe they are right, and they are justifiably exercised by much more immediate concerns, like getting a job.
If she is 23, she was just 13 the last time the economy went pop. The world carries on as it is, right up until it doesn't. She has not seen much change as an adult. It is reasonable for her to assume things just carry on. Sadly we know better.
My hunch is that we're in a bit of a bubble right now. These political shocks are slowly weakening the foundations of Britain's economy. Something will give at some point.
I totally understand your thinking. I'm just not sure that's true any more. There is a kind of underlying vivacity in the British economy, based on sheer size and youthful enthusiasm. Remember our population has increased by about 8m in 20 years.
This gives momentum. It is very possible we will simply shrug off Brexit, and nervous oldsters like me (and you, tho you are younger!) will be surprised on the upside.
I hope your right. But in my industry, there are signs of overheating. This is what a bubble feels like.
Wondering how many more of these political shocks the economy can take. Wondering what's sustaining our current bubble, when it will go pop and what comes next.
If you talk to the average Brit (especially under 35) they don't give a toss. They're not worried. They don't worry. Politics bores them rigid
I'm seeing a smart designer/journalist at the moment. 23. Well educated. Southern English. She's informed and articulate. We spoke on the phone a couple of hours ago, I said I was worried by today's political developments, she replied she was only vaguely aware of the Scottish thing in the most airy way, as in: "you mean that woman, Sturgeon, she said something? Oh yeah, OK, hmm, I heard someone mention that this morning, anyway I had my job interview, and...."
Most people don't care or even notice, even smart people, especially if they are young. They presume the world will carry on much as it is, and maybe they are right, and they are justifiably exercised by much more immediate concerns, like getting a job.
If she is 23, she was just 13 the last time the economy went pop. The world carries on as it is, right up until it doesn't. She has not seen much change as an adult. It is reasonable for her to assume things just carry on. Sadly we know better.
My hunch is that we're in a bit of a bubble right now. These political shocks are slowly weakening the foundations of Britain's economy. Something will give at some point.
I totally understand your thinking. I'm just not sure that's true any more. There is a kind of underlying vivacity in the British economy, based on sheer size and youthful enthusiasm. Remember our population has increased by about 8m in 20 years.
This gives momentum. It is very possible we will simply shrug off Brexit, and nervous oldsters like me (and you, tho you are younger!) will be surprised on the upside.
I hope your right. But in my industry, there are signs of overheating. This is what a bubble feels like.
In my industry the weaker pound is doing us nicely at the moment. Might well be the last hurrah before hard Brexit does us in though :>
Personally I think the SNP will do well to even get near the wave of inspiration they created last time. Massive rallies, Yes posters everywhere, non voters and young people coming out to vote in their droves, social media bombardment, armies of volunteers knocking on doors. Are the Scottish Nationalists going to be motivated enough to do all that again? I can't see it, there was something fresh and organic about the original movement that can never be replicated.
They have a core of dedicated support for independence that will ensure massive rallies and posters will be much in evidence, I am sure. As for the young coming out in their droves again, well, the young are presumably still very much in favour once again, and I imagine the point will be made that to fail once is a setback, but to fail twice, with the backdrop of Brexit? That might mean no other chance even in a young person's life. If the young don't turn out as they did last time, they can only have themselves to blame if they whinge about it for 50 years.
Night all. It's going to be a long few years.
They've got a stronger cause this time. Last time it was a few years of a Tory government that they hadn't voted for. This time it's a future that is about to be comprehensively fucked by an even worse Tory government who are likely to be around for at least a generation.
I think they'll win easily and I think the Irish will follow
Personally I think the SNP will do well to even get near the wave of inspiration they created last time. Massive rallies, Yes posters everywhere, non voters and young people coming out to vote in their droves, social media bombardment, armies of volunteers knocking on doors. Are the Scottish Nationalists going to be motivated enough to do all that again? I can't see it, there was something fresh and organic about the original movement that can never be replicated.
20,000 members at that time. 120,000 now. £170,000 raised in 12 hours.
Wondering how many more of these political shocks the economy can take. Wondering what's sustaining our current bubble, when it will go pop and what comes next.
If you talk to the average Brit (especially under 35) they don't give a toss. They're not worried. They don't worry. Politics bores them rigid
I'm seeing a smart designer/journalist at the moment. 23. Well educated. Southern English. She's informed and articulate. We spoke on the phone a couple of hours ago, I said I was worried by today's political developments, she replied she was only vaguely aware of the Scottish thing in the most airy way, as in: "you mean that woman, Sturgeon, she said something? Oh yeah, OK, hmm, I heard someone mention that this morning, anyway I had my job interview, and...."
Most people don't care or even notice, even smart people, especially if they are young. They presume the world will carry on much as it is, and maybe they are right, and they are justifiably exercised by much more immediate concerns, like getting a job.
If she is 23, she was just 13 the last time the economy went pop. The world carries on as it is, right up until it doesn't. She has not seen much change as an adult. It is reasonable for her to assume things just carry on. Sadly we know better.
My hunch is that we're in a bit of a bubble right now. These political shocks are slowly weakening the foundations of Britain's economy. Something will give at some point.
I totally understand your thinking. I'm just not sure that's true any more. There is a kind of underlying vivacity in the British economy, based on sheer size and youthful enthusiasm. Remember our population has increased by about 8m in 20 years.
This gives momentum. It is very possible we will simply shrug off Brexit, and nervous oldsters like me (and you, tho you are younger!) will be surprised on the upside.
All that increase in population has achieved is to reduce the growth rate per head.
And the 'underlying vivacity' ** is based upon a trillion pounds of government borrowing.
** What is this 'underlying vivacity' ? Property speculation and posh restaurants in London ?
Personally I think the SNP will do well to even get near the wave of inspiration they created last time. Massive rallies, Yes posters everywhere, non voters and young people coming out to vote in their droves, social media bombardment, armies of volunteers knocking on doors. Are the Scottish Nationalists going to be motivated enough to do all that again? I can't see it, there was something fresh and organic about the original movement that can never be replicated.
20,000 members at that time. 120,000 now. £170,000 raised in 12 hours.
Personally I think the SNP will do well to even get near the wave of inspiration they created last time. Massive rallies, Yes posters everywhere, non voters and young people coming out to vote in their droves, social media bombardment, armies of volunteers knocking on doors. Are the Scottish Nationalists going to be motivated enough to do all that again? I can't see it, there was something fresh and organic about the original movement that can never be replicated.
They have a core of dedicated support for independence that will ensure massive rallies and posters will be much in evidence, I am sure. As for the young coming out in their droves again, well, the young are presumably still very much in favour once again, and I imagine the point will be made that to fail once is a setback, but to fail twice, with the backdrop of Brexit? That might mean no other chance even in a young person's life. If the young don't turn out as they did last time, they can only have themselves to blame if they whinge about it for 50 years.
Night all. It's going to be a long few years.
They've got a stronger cause this time. Last time it was a few years of a Tory government that they hadn't voted for. This time it's a future that is about to be comprehensively fucked by an even worse Tory government who are likely to be around for at least a generation.
I think they'll win easily and I think the Irish will follow
Sad times. Still have the welsh though, good old Wales.
Sturgeon calling for the indyref now has a feeling of being rather rushed, it is by no means certain that she will be on the winning side and certainly it is along way from when the talk was of waiting until the opinion polls showed a constant lead for Yes before they would call for a 2nd referendum. Personally I think that it is highly irresponsible of the SNP to hold a 2nd referendum just now. They will be asking the Scottish public to decide between a status quo that will very uncertain since we will have no practical experience of living in post-Brexit Britain and asked to compare that with an even less certain independent future with probably a completely unknown relationship with both rUK and also the EU. It would be much better to wait until we had lived through Brexit for a few years and have a much better idea of how it has actually impacted on the country rather than having to guess. If Brexit is a disaster then I'm sure that Yes would win comfortably and if Brexit is a success then there is a reasonable chance that the SNP would not be in position to call the referendum in the first place. Part of the reason why I think they have decided to go for it now is that they know that they might not have the votes in Holyrood in the next Parliament and it is harder to have a referendum in 2020 or 2021 due to a GE and Holyrood elections.
Well said. I just hope Sturgeon's hasty decision doesn't put off too many investors or worse still encourages businesses to up sticks and head south.
if you were BAe Systems, would you invest in Clyde shipbuilding knowing the Scottish government will be campaigning to cut you off from your biggest customer?
Sturgeon calling for the indyref now has a feeling of being rather rushed, it is by no means certain that she will be on the winning side and certainly it is along way from when the talk was of waiting until the opinion polls showed a constant lead for Yes before they would call for a 2nd referendum. Personally I think that it is highly irresponsible of the SNP to hold a 2nd referendum just now. They will be asking the Scottish public to decide between a status quo that will very uncertain since we will have no practical experience of living in post-Brexit Britain and asked to compare that with an even less certain independent future with probably a completely unknown relationship with both rUK and also the EU. It would be much better to wait until we had lived through Brexit for a few years and have a much better idea of how it has actually impacted on the country rather than having to guess. If Brexit is a disaster then I'm sure that Yes would win comfortably and if Brexit is a success then there is a reasonable chance that the SNP would not be in position to call the referendum in the first place. Part of the reason why I think they have decided to go for it now is that they know that they might not have the votes in Holyrood in the next Parliament and it is harder to have a referendum in 2020 or 2021 due to a GE and Holyrood elections.
Well said. I just hope Sturgeon's hasty decision doesn't put off too many investors or worse still encourages businesses to up sticks and head south.
if you were BAe Systems, would you invest in Clyde shipbuilding knowing the Scottish government will be campaigning to cut you off from your biggest customer?
One of my major suppliers is in Aberdeen. I may well be looking for a new supplier after the regular management meeting tomorrow morning.
Sturgeon calling for the indyref now has a feeling of being rather rushed, it is by no means certain that she will be on the winning side and certainly it is along way from when the talk was of waiting until the opinion polls showed a constant lead for Yes before they would call for a 2nd referendum. Personally I think that it is highly irresponsible of the SNP to hold a 2nd referendum just now. They will be asking the Scottish public to decide between a status quo that will very uncertain since we will have no practical experience of living in post-Brexit Britain and asked to compare that with an even less certain independent future with probably a completely unknown relationship with both rUK and also the EU. It would be much better to wait until we had lived through Brexit for a few years and have a much better idea of how it has actually impacted on the country rather than having to guess. If Brexit is a disaster then I'm sure that Yes would win comfortably and if Brexit is a success then there is a reasonable chance that the SNP would not be in position to call the referendum in the first place. Part of the reason why I think they have decided to go for it now is that they know that they might not have the votes in Holyrood in the next Parliament and it is harder to have a referendum in 2020 or 2021 due to a GE and Holyrood elections.
Well said. I just hope Sturgeon's hasty decision doesn't put off too many investors or worse still encourages businesses to up sticks and head south.
if you were BAe Systems, would you invest in Clyde shipbuilding knowing the Scottish government will be campaigning to cut you off from your biggest customer?
One of my major suppliers is in Aberdeen. I may well be looking for a new supplier after the regular management meeting tomorrow morning.
Sturgeon calling for the indyref now has a feeling of being rather rushed, it is by no means certain that she will be on the winning side and certainly it is along way from when the talk was of waiting until the opinion polls showed a constant lead for Yes before they would call for a 2nd referendum. Personally I think that it is highly irresponsible of the SNP to hold a 2nd referendum just now. They will be asking the Scottish public to decide between a status quo that will very uncertain since we will have no practical experience of living in post-Brexit Britain and asked to compare that with an even less certain independent future with probably a completely unknown relationship with both rUK and also the EU. It would be much better to wait until we had lived through Brexit for a few years and have a much better idea of how it has actually impacted on the country rather than having to guess. If Brexit is a disaster then I'm sure that Yes would win comfortably and if Brexit is a success then there is a reasonable chance that the SNP would not be in position to call the referendum in the first place. Part of the reason why I think they have decided to go for it now is that they know that they might not have the votes in Holyrood in the next Parliament and it is harder to have a referendum in 2020 or 2021 due to a GE and Holyrood elections.
Well said. I just hope Sturgeon's hasty decision doesn't put off too many investors or worse still encourages businesses to up sticks and head south.
if you were BAe Systems, would you invest in Clyde shipbuilding knowing the Scottish government will be campaigning to cut you off from your biggest customer?
One of my major suppliers is in Aberdeen. I may well be looking for a new supplier after the regular management meeting tomorrow morning.
Are your colleagues aware that you make business decisions based on punishing politicians you don't like?
There is genuine anger and dismay here in Scotland at Sturgeon's announcement today, we do not want go through another Indy Ref campaign. A lot of Indy Ref No voters who also voted to Remain in the EU Ref, did not do so for Sturgeon to then use that second vote to try to void their first in the 2014 Indy Ref!! The silent majority spoke in 2014, and they are going to feel very let down and angry at the behaviour of both the SNP and the Greens at Holyrood.
If the Yes campaign had won just two an half years ago, Scotland would have already suffered a hard Brexit!!
Sturgeon calling for the indyref now has a feeling of being rather rushed, it is by no means certain that she will be on the winning side and certainly it is along way from when the talk was of waiting until the opinion polls showed a constant lead for Yes before they would call for a 2nd referendum. Personally I think that it is highly irresponsible of the SNP to hold a 2nd referendum just now. They will be asking the Scottish public to decide between a status quo that will very uncertain since we will have no practical experience of living in post-Brexit Britain and asked to compare that with an even less certain independent future with probably a completely unknown relationship with both rUK and also the EU. It would be much better to wait until we had lived through Brexit for a few years and have a much better idea of how it has actually impacted on the country rather than having to guess. If Brexit is a disaster then I'm sure that Yes would win comfortably and if Brexit is a success then there is a reasonable chance that the SNP would not be in position to call the referendum in the first place. Part of the reason why I think they have decided to go for it now is that they know that they might not have the votes in Holyrood in the next Parliament and it is harder to have a referendum in 2020 or 2021 due to a GE and Holyrood elections.
Well said. I just hope Sturgeon's hasty decision doesn't put off too many investors or worse still encourages businesses to up sticks and head south.
if you were BAe Systems, would you invest in Clyde shipbuilding knowing the Scottish government will be campaigning to cut you off from your biggest customer?
One of my major suppliers is in Aberdeen. I may well be looking for a new supplier after the regular management meeting tomorrow morning.
Are your colleagues aware that you make business decisions based on punishing politicians you don't like?
Read that again. I'm not the one who will be making the decision.
Comments
Nah, only joking!
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/841412220072411137
The 19% SF supporters who don't support a united Ireland....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39253693
"The main factor was a big drop in rents in London and the south east of England.
In the capital they fell by nearly 5% in the past year to an average of £1,246 a month, and in the south east of England they fell by nearly 3% to £1,152."
Edit: it seems that yes, they do, under s97 of the Scotland Act 1998, "Assistance for Opposition Parties".
Brexit, the gift that keeps on giving.
Not certain I followed her logic.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Dutch_general_election,_2017
A week later an asylum seeker was running round that towns railway station swinging an axe at passers by. Where's the Merkel float?
Every action she has taken so far has been to appease the headbangers (even the budget shambles)
Wondering what's sustaining our current bubble, when it will go pop and what comes next.
Truly a classroom every day here
I guess the VVD is centre-right but very very very pro EU.
I like use of '907 days' though. Some editor obviously thought 'less than 3 years' sounded like it was too long, so even though it leads to a number approaching 1000, the use of days focuses on the smaller increment.
Wages continue to outstrip inflation and the next set of budget measures will pump up consumption.
The only obvious threat in the next few months is a rise in the interest rate, but even that would only cancel the cut last summer.
I don't think he's wrong - or more to the point Britain's hand isn't actually that weak. But the 1st -> 3rd largest 'bloc'/zone in the world (The EU) nevertheless has a stronger hand. Ace high flush beats a pair of tens.
PS They do some nice covers for you. I used to do the odd one a few years ago
My hunch is that we're in a bit of a bubble right now. These political shocks are slowly weakening the foundations of Britain's economy. Something will give at some point.
Unless they happen to meet a fabulously rich and generous old bloke
Brexit success for Britain depends on the good will of the EU who have an interest in Brexit not being seen to succeed,
Night all. It's going to be a long few years.
I think they'll win easily and I think the Irish will follow
And the 'underlying vivacity' ** is based upon a trillion pounds of government borrowing.
** What is this 'underlying vivacity' ? Property speculation and posh restaurants in London ?
Yup and we are going nowhere : )
6% back Welsh independence, probably lower than Cornwall.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-39114914
If the Yes campaign had won just two an half years ago, Scotland would have already suffered a hard Brexit!!