politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The persistence of kippers – looking at where post-referendum
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We had a leave vote and she's not done anything to reduce immigration since, despite having plenty of scope to do so. What's absurd is your rhetoric.HYUFD said:No. The idea May could have introduced no new immigration controls after the Leave vote is absurd
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On the same basis, there may be areas that wish to separate from Scotland - the Border areas as well as the Shetlands. Those living there should certainly have their view taken into account in the same way that the Ulster counties were permitted to remain within the UK in the early 1920s.HurstLlama said:
Good. Hanging on to relationships that have essentially expired is never a good idea for either party. If the people of Scotland or NI or Wales want to make their own way in the world good for them. I see no reason to grieve or to worry.SouthamObserver said:What else was anyone expecting? Brexit was inevitably going to lead to a second independence referendum. The UK has had its day. Just as England has drifted inexorably away from the EU, so Scotland is drifting inexorably away from England and Wales. Northern Ireland is too. It's all very sad, but there is no sustainable British demos anymore. Last June's vote was the final nail in its coffin.
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she has not been great NO supporter in recent times, maybe she is not as daft as she portrayed in the pastAlastairMeeks said:
Actually she would be a fantastic choice for multiple reasons, if she could be persuaded to do it. I can't for the life of me think of a reason why she would want to put herself through that hell.Lennon said:
What price a non-politico - JK Rowling?AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
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I voted to leave - dislike what the EU has morphed into and though the Norway option would give us enough freedom to flourish. Besides which as a non-Eurozone member we would have been out with fiscal union anyway.
But hard Brexit to the WTO was always an absurd idea as the leaked Treasury Paper (entitled 'WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE' apparently) demonstrates. And what special deal are the EU going to want to give us - not that 2 years gives us remotely enough time to even shape the preliminary discussions of a deal.
May is a political imbecile of the first order. She should have gone to the country already and secured her 120 majority. Instead she'll have to go to the country just as her hard brexit sky is falling in.
So this is where sane people step in. People voted to leave the European Union - the question on the paper. Not the other things people think they voted for, but this government appear desperate to steamroller through the suicide option hoping they will outlive UKIP if they do. Why should Scotland - or NI or Wales - put up with that?
The Scots had a referendum. A massive change in the landscape means another one is a valid question to ask. The EU feared little sub-states like Scotland or Catalonia being formed, but thats far less of a concern than the rise of fascism threatening the whole shebang. So they'll offer Nicola the moon on a stick. The referendum will be on Scotland's terms not Westminster's. "We won't allow it then" says May and what does she plan to do about it? Scotland goes ahead anyway with a deal agreed with Europe, declares UDI and then what - war? An absurd piece of posturing from Maybe.
And it won't end with Scotland. The reality of hard Brexit is a physical hard border in Ireland (and war) or a physical hard border between GB and NI (and war). So why would NI put up with that?
This is why I have decided to pull up sticks and cease being much of a Labour activist. The left / right bullshit row is an utter irrelevance as I do not expect there to be a UK left to hold a 2020 election in.0 -
It should be huge. She'd have to make common cause with (to her hated) Brexit, plus her statement the last time round is something of a hostage to fortune.Lennon said:
What price a non-politico - JK Rowling?AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
'I’ve heard it said that ‘we’ve got to leave, because they’ll punish us if we don’t’, but my guess is that if we vote to stay, we will be in the heady position of the spouse who looked like walking out, but decided to give things one last go. All the major political parties are currently wooing us with offers of extra powers, keen to keep Scotland happy so that it does not hold an independence referendum every ten years and cause uncertainty and turmoil all over again. I doubt whether we will ever have been more popular, or in a better position to dictate terms, than if we vote to stay.'0 -
I don't agree. Then London should be allowed to stay in the EU.justin124 said:
On the same basis, there may be areas that wish to separate from Scotland - the Border areas as well as the Shetlands. Those living there should certainly have their view taken into account in the same way that the Ulster counties were permitted to remain within the UK in the early 1920s.HurstLlama said:
Good. Hanging on to relationships that have essentially expired is never a good idea for either party. If the people of Scotland or NI or Wales want to make their own way in the world good for them. I see no reason to grieve or to worry.SouthamObserver said:What else was anyone expecting? Brexit was inevitably going to lead to a second independence referendum. The UK has had its day. Just as England has drifted inexorably away from the EU, so Scotland is drifting inexorably away from England and Wales. Northern Ireland is too. It's all very sad, but there is no sustainable British demos anymore. Last June's vote was the final nail in its coffin.
Scotland is different to the Shetlands, for example, because it is a separate country, maybe not in UN terms. After all, it is the United Kingdom0 -
I'm sure I'm not the only one who just felt a goose walk over his grave.0
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This presumes A50 cannot be reversed. But no one knows for sure about that as the treaty does not address the issue. It would be useful to get a definitive ruling so each will then know where he stands.Richard_Nabavi said:
Unfortunately, there is no mechanism for a climbdown, humiliating or otherwise.williamglenn said:Your judgement is lacking. Having established that the Theresa May is not in control, the EU, and the UK, would have no interest in going over the cliff. There will be a humiliating climbdown.
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Considering how far behind Sindy1 and Brexit were before their campaigns, and where they finished, I don't think an average 45% is actually a bad starting point. The referendum won't be a rerun of the 1st one for a number of reasons:
Economics: undoubtedly worse for indy supporters this time, probably the biggest advantage in favour of the the unionists after the currency issue
currency: still undecided - my thoughts are that the SNP need to be able to deliver on their own terms everything they promise in order to win this, which means ruling out the British pound currency union from last time, and proposing a scottish pound.
EU: switched from a big unionist plus in 2014 to a huge sindy one now - smart thing to do would be to guarantee EEA membership at least, and say that discussions would be aiming for full EU membership. This neutralises the whole Spain veto issue, who can't veto membership of the EEA and can be worked on longer term to come round to EU accession.
I think the advantage is with sindy this time around, but certainly no sure thing. If I was running their campaign I would go for a Scottish Pound, and (to an extent) own the fact that there will economic difficulties around it. Leavers successfully managed to do this with Brexit, getting the public to buy in to the idea that there will be necessary short term economic wobbles before we once again rule the waves. Promise membership of the single market with a view to retaining full EU membership after discussions with member states. Above all hammer home the fact that there is no status quo option anymore, it's either brexit UK or indy scotland, you have to choose between these two binary new options.
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There is already a growing campaign in Shetland to rejoin the UK in the event of Scottish independence, as far as they are concerned the UK is their countrysurbiton said:
I don't agree. Then London should be allowed to stay in the EU.justin124 said:
On the same basis, there may be areas that wish to separate from Scotland - the Border areas as well as the Shetlands. Those living there should certainly have their view taken into account in the same way that the Ulster counties were permitted to remain within the UK in the early 1920s.HurstLlama said:
Good. Hanging on to relationships that have essentially expired is never a good idea for either party. If the people of Scotland or NI or Wales want to make their own way in the world good for them. I see no reason to grieve or to worry.SouthamObserver said:What else was anyone expecting? Brexit was inevitably going to lead to a second independence referendum. The UK has had its day. Just as England has drifted inexorably away from the EU, so Scotland is drifting inexorably away from England and Wales. Northern Ireland is too. It's all very sad, but there is no sustainable British demos anymore. Last June's vote was the final nail in its coffin.
Scotland is different to the Shetlands, for example, because it is a separate country, maybe not in UN terms. After all, it is the United Kingdom0 -
I'm not so convinced that Scotland is fundamentally that different from England on the EU [or indeed "liberal" attitudes etc.] But it got divided along Yes/No lines first, and Yes voters went for Remain precisely because of the relevance of that question to the Independence one.0
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Saucy!AlastairMeeks said:I'm sure I'm not the only one who just felt a goose walk over his grave.
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Gordon Brown, your moment has come.MyBurningEars said:
One major consequence of the commons wipe-out of SLAB (and indeed the other parties just hanging on in there) has been a culling of Scottish Big Beasts from political life.AlastairMeeks said:
There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.TheScreamingEagles said:
You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
And the collapse of SLAB in the polls, means putting forward a SLAB figure as head unionist cheerleader now carries similar disadvantages (if not quite the same level of toxicity to the decisive floating voters) to putting forward a Tory figure.0 -
To make a comeback as Prime Minister of an independent Scotland?david_herdson said:
Gordon Brown, your moment has come.MyBurningEars said:
One major consequence of the commons wipe-out of SLAB (and indeed the other parties just hanging on in there) has been a culling of Scottish Big Beasts from political life.AlastairMeeks said:
There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.TheScreamingEagles said:
You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
And the collapse of SLAB in the polls, means putting forward a SLAB figure as head unionist cheerleader now carries similar disadvantages (if not quite the same level of toxicity to the decisive floating voters) to putting forward a Tory figure.0 -
Maybe the Remainers who can't handle the EU result can apply for Scottish citizenship in the event of Sindy?0
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SLAB should and probably will come out in favour of independence. That is the only way SLAB could begin to claw back their lost voters. By siding with Tories is a death wish as Corbyn is doing now.malcolmg said:
Yes a Tory leading will be a big help toYes for sureMyBurningEars said:
One major consequence of the commons wipe-out of SLAB (and indeed the other parties just hanging on in there) has been a culling of Scottish Big Beasts from political life.AlastairMeeks said:
There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.TheScreamingEagles said:
You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
And the collapse of SLAB in the polls, means putting forward a SLAB figure as head unionist cheerleader now carries similar disadvantages (if not quite the same level of toxicity to the decisive floating voters) to putting forward a Tory figure.0 -
she would need to be crazy to take that onLennon said:
What price a non-politico - JK Rowling?AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
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PS. Given that a Scottish referendum is being justified on the pretext that Scots would be voting Yes to give up their newly acquired or about to be acquired independence from the EU, why is it still being referred to by all and sundry as a referendum on "Scottish independence"?0
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Not sure becoming an enclave of the rUK with a 10 mile territorial limit is really in their interests, but of course that's up to them.HYUFD said:
There is already a growing campaign in Shetland to rejoin the UK in the event of Scottish independence, as far as they are concerned the UK is their countrysurbiton said:
I don't agree. Then London should be allowed to stay in the EU.justin124 said:
On the same basis, there may be areas that wish to separate from Scotland - the Border areas as well as the Shetlands. Those living there should certainly have their view taken into account in the same way that the Ulster counties were permitted to remain within the UK in the early 1920s.HurstLlama said:
Good. Hanging on to relationships that have essentially expired is never a good idea for either party. If the people of Scotland or NI or Wales want to make their own way in the world good for them. I see no reason to grieve or to worry.SouthamObserver said:What else was anyone expecting? Brexit was inevitably going to lead to a second independence referendum. The UK has had its day. Just as England has drifted inexorably away from the EU, so Scotland is drifting inexorably away from England and Wales. Northern Ireland is too. It's all very sad, but there is no sustainable British demos anymore. Last June's vote was the final nail in its coffin.
Scotland is different to the Shetlands, for example, because it is a separate country, maybe not in UN terms. After all, it is the United Kingdom0 -
They might get a better offer from Norway....HYUFD said:
There is already a growing campaign in Shetland to rejoin the UK in the event of Scottish independence, as far as they are concerned the UK is their countrysurbiton said:
I don't agree. Then London should be allowed to stay in the EU.justin124 said:
On the same basis, there may be areas that wish to separate from Scotland - the Border areas as well as the Shetlands. Those living there should certainly have their view taken into account in the same way that the Ulster counties were permitted to remain within the UK in the early 1920s.HurstLlama said:
Good. Hanging on to relationships that have essentially expired is never a good idea for either party. If the people of Scotland or NI or Wales want to make their own way in the world good for them. I see no reason to grieve or to worry.SouthamObserver said:What else was anyone expecting? Brexit was inevitably going to lead to a second independence referendum. The UK has had its day. Just as England has drifted inexorably away from the EU, so Scotland is drifting inexorably away from England and Wales. Northern Ireland is too. It's all very sad, but there is no sustainable British demos anymore. Last June's vote was the final nail in its coffin.
Scotland is different to the Shetlands, for example, because it is a separate country, maybe not in UN terms. After all, it is the United Kingdom0 -
The aren't different, social attitudes surveys show a margin of error difference between the UK versus Scotland, or England versus Scotland.Tissue_Price said:I'm not so convinced that Scotland is fundamentally that different from England on the EU [or indeed "liberal" attitudes etc.]
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Get Farage to campaign for Yes in Scotland and all the undecideds like @Theuniondivvie will vote to stay!0
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Complete and utter rubbish. You voted Leave fully endorsing the Leave campaign's exploitation of the immigration issue and you cannot wash your hands of it now or indeed the fact you may have pushed Scotland towards independence. I voted Remain but recognise the Leave vote has to be honouredRochdalePioneers said:I voted to leave - dislike what the EU has morphed into and though the Norway option would give us enough freedom to flourish. Besides which as a non-Eurozone member we would have been out with fiscal union anyway.
But hard Brexit to the WTO was always an absurd idea as the leaked Treasury Paper (entitled 'WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE' apparently) demonstrates. And what special deal are the EU going to want to give us - not that 2 years gives us remotely enough time to even shape the preliminary discussions of a deal.
May is a political imbecile of the first order. She should have gone to the country already and secured her 120 majority. Instead she'll have to go to the country just as her hard brexit sky is falling in.
So this is where sane people step in. People voted to leave the European Union - the question on the paper. Not the other things people think they voted for, but this government appear desperate to steamroller through the suicide option hoping they will outlive UKIP if they do. Why should Scotland - or NI or Wales - put up with that?
The Scots had a referendum. A massive change in the landscape means another one is a valid question to ask. The EU feared little sub-states like Scotland or Catalonia being formed, but thats far less of a concern than the rise of fascism threatening the whole shebang. So they'll offer Nicola the moon on a stick. The referendum will be on Scotland's terms not Westminster's. "We won't allow it then" says May and what does she plan to do about it? Scotland goes ahead anyway with a deal agreed with Europe, declares UDI and then what - war? An absurd piece of posturing from Maybe.
And it won't end with Scotland. The reality of hard Brexit is a physical hard border in Ireland (and war) or a physical hard border between GB and NI (and war). So why would NI put up with that?
This is why I have decided to pull up sticks and cease being much of a Labour activist. The left / right bullshit row is an utter irrelevance as I do not expect there to be a UK left to hold a 2020 election in.0 -
A vintage as wellrottenborough said:GIN1138 said:
Your girl did good Malc. Enjoymalcolmg said:
Yaba daba doo GIN, we are off and runningGIN1138 said:
That was always going to be the outcome. It's like unpicking the fabric of a country thread by thread until eventually the entire thing just falls apart.glw said:
Devolution has had precisely the opposite effect that Labour thought it would.GIN1138 said:I think there's a lot in what you say. I've always felt Scotland leaving the UK was inevitable since Labour brought in devolution.
Turnip wine tonight!0 -
The Leave vote put petrol on the SNP fireAlanbrooke said:
LOLHYUFD said:
No. The idea May could have introduced no new immigration controls after the Leave vote is absurd, half her party would have switched to UKIP. If Scotland votes Yes there is only one group to blame, the Leave campaign in EU ref and those in England and Wales who voted Leave, they may still see leaving the EU as more important than preserving the Union but the blame still falls on themParistonda said:
No - May could have neutralised the entire issue by saying she would seek to retain single market membership in the EEA. For various (understandable but incorrect) reasons she chose not to, so she has brought this on herself.HYUFD said:
It was the English and Welsh voters who voted Leave who would have lost Scotland, not May who voted Remain. However as said last night May is Elizabeth 1st to Sturgeon's Mary Queen of ScotsSouthamObserver said:
To be fair, Corbyn will be getting what he wants, too, if the UK breaks-up. But you are right, Sturgeon has played a blinder on this. What will May throw at the Scots to keep them on board? Being the Conservative and Unionist PM who lost the Union would be quite something on her CV.RochdalePioneers said:By the time we get to an independence vote we will already have a Scottish deal in the bag. The EU are going to guarantee their EEA membership with at least fast track membership to the whole thing agreed. They'll be offered a better deal that the floor scrapings we're going to be proffered. And that'll be used as pressure on the rest of the UK.
What can May threaten them with? Throwing them out of the CTA, currency and customs unions? A physical border? People will be laughing in her face.
Bravo Nicola, bravo. A brilliant political gambit. Any Jeremy obsessives reading this - that's what leadership looks like.
you dont think the SNP has anything to do with it then ?0 -
The last poll was 48/52.Paristonda said:Considering how far behind Sindy1 and Brexit were before their campaigns, and where they finished, I don't think an average 45% is actually a bad starting point. The referendum won't be a rerun of the 1st one for a number of reasons:
Economics: undoubtedly worse for indy supporters this time, probably the biggest advantage in favour of the the unionists after the currency issue
currency: still undecided - my thoughts are that the SNP need to be able to deliver on their own terms everything they promise in order to win this, which means ruling out the British pound currency union from last time, and proposing a scottish pound.
EU: switched from a big unionist plus in 2014 to a huge sindy one now - smart thing to do would be to guarantee EEA membership at least, and say that discussions would be aiming for full EU membership. This neutralises the whole Spain veto issue, who can't veto membership of the EEA and can be worked on longer term to come round to EU accession.
I think the advantage is with sindy this time around, but certainly no sure thing. If I was running their campaign I would go for a Scottish Pound, and (to an extent) own the fact that there will economic difficulties around it. Leavers successfully managed to do this with Brexit, getting the public to buy in to the idea that there will be necessary short term economic wobbles before we once again rule the waves. Promise membership of the single market with a view to retaining full EU membership after discussions with member states. Above all hammer home the fact that there is no status quo option anymore, it's either brexit UK or indy scotland, you have to choose between these two binary new options.0 -
Without being explicit, the text of the treaty is about as clear as it could be, as indeed is the logic of the clause. How is it possible to state that membership will end at the commencement of the agreement / the two-year limit / the extended limit, if one side could unilaterally terminate the withdrawal discussions and return to the status quo ante?PeterC said:
This presumes A50 cannot be reversed. But no one knows for sure about that as the treaty does not address the issue. It would be useful to get a definitive ruling so each will then know where he stands.Richard_Nabavi said:
Unfortunately, there is no mechanism for a climbdown, humiliating or otherwise.williamglenn said:Your judgement is lacking. Having established that the Theresa May is not in control, the EU, and the UK, would have no interest in going over the cliff. There will be a humiliating climbdown.
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I didn't endorse either the immigration argument or the NHS funding argument. And with stopping immigration pretty well accepted as functionally impossible even with hard brexit it was a ludicrous argument to begin with.HYUFD said:Complete and utter rubbish. You voted Leave fully endorsing the Leave campaign's exploitation of the immigration issue and you cannot wash your hands of it now or indeed the fact you may have pushed Scotland towards independence. I voted Remain but recognise the Leave vote has to be honoured
People may have voted to leave thinking foreigners would go home. Or that it meant hard brexit. Or that we we "take back control". Thats up to them. Not why I voted to leave.
Are you basically arguing that someone voting for Party A as the least worst option is endorsing them? Thats complete and utter rubbish, to coin a phrase
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malcolmg said:
A vintage as wellrottenborough said:GIN1138 said:
Your girl did good Malc. Enjoymalcolmg said:
Yaba daba doo GIN, we are off and runningGIN1138 said:
That was always going to be the outcome. It's like unpicking the fabric of a country thread by thread until eventually the entire thing just falls apart.glw said:
Devolution has had precisely the opposite effect that Labour thought it would.GIN1138 said:I think there's a lot in what you say. I've always felt Scotland leaving the UK was inevitable since Labour brought in devolution.
Turnip wine tonight!
A 1314?malcolmg said:
A vintage as wellrottenborough said:GIN1138 said:
Your girl did good Malc. Enjoymalcolmg said:
Yaba daba doo GIN, we are off and runningGIN1138 said:
That was always going to be the outcome. It's like unpicking the fabric of a country thread by thread until eventually the entire thing just falls apart.glw said:
Devolution has had precisely the opposite effect that Labour thought it would.GIN1138 said:I think there's a lot in what you say. I've always felt Scotland leaving the UK was inevitable since Labour brought in devolution.
Turnip wine tonight!0 -
Personally, I think the Scots would be mad to stay chained to UKIP Island now that England has voted for Brexit. Go, and go quickly would be my advice. And I think the EU would welcome them with open arms. It would look great to have them join while the UK leaves. I used to be for the union, but Brexit has changed my mind. This isn't the country I thought it was. Go Scotland, and don't look back!0
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The EU result is the death-knell for hard-core Euroscepticism in Britain.isam said:Maybe the Remainers who can't handle the EU result can apply for Scottish citizenship in the event of Sindy?
After what's going to happen no-one will ever again say that leaving the EU would be a good idea.0 -
It's rather amusing that Corbyn and his lot, having spent their life decrying Blairites as Red Tories, and Lib Dems as enablers, are now aligned lockstep with Tories on the two biggest issues in a generation, Brexit and Sindy.surbiton said:
SLAB should and probably will come out in favour of independence. That is the only way SLAB could begin to claw back their lost voters. By siding with Tories is a death wish as Corbyn is doing now.malcolmg said:
Yes a Tory leading will be a big help toYes for sureMyBurningEars said:
One major consequence of the commons wipe-out of SLAB (and indeed the other parties just hanging on in there) has been a culling of Scottish Big Beasts from political life.AlastairMeeks said:
There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.TheScreamingEagles said:
You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
And the collapse of SLAB in the polls, means putting forward a SLAB figure as head unionist cheerleader now carries similar disadvantages (if not quite the same level of toxicity to the decisive floating voters) to putting forward a Tory figure.0 -
The EU is frequently able to distort the length of an official day, doing so for a year or two is just a matter of scale.david_herdson said:
Without being explicit, the text of the treaty is about as clear as it could be, as indeed is the logic of the clause. How is it possible to state that membership will end at the commencement of the agreement / the two-year limit / the extended limit, if one side could unilaterally terminate the withdrawal discussions and return to the status quo ante?PeterC said:
This presumes A50 cannot be reversed. But no one knows for sure about that as the treaty does not address the issue. It would be useful to get a definitive ruling so each will then know where he stands.Richard_Nabavi said:
Unfortunately, there is no mechanism for a climbdown, humiliating or otherwise.williamglenn said:Your judgement is lacking. Having established that the Theresa May is not in control, the EU, and the UK, would have no interest in going over the cliff. There will be a humiliating climbdown.
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"I hope..."williamglenn said:
The EU result is the death-knell for hard-core Euroscepticism in Britain.isam said:Maybe the Remainers who can't handle the EU result can apply for Scottish citizenship in the event of Sindy?
After what's going to happen no-one will ever again say that leaving the EU would be a good idea.0 -
I've never read a post of yours about the EU that basically couldn't be boiled down to "this is bad for Brexit". You are the most one-sided poster on PB, and considering there are a handful of die-hard Nats that is saying something.williamglenn said:
The EU result is the death-knell for hard-core Euroscepticism in Britain.isam said:Maybe the Remainers who can't handle the EU result can apply for Scottish citizenship in the event of Sindy?
After what's going to happen no-one will ever again say that leaving the EU would be a good idea.0 -
Yeah right. All it will mean, if Scotland gains independence, is a bigger proportion of Britain will be Leaverswilliamglenn said:
The EU result is the death-knell for hard-core Euroscepticism in Britain.isam said:Maybe the Remainers who can't handle the EU result can apply for Scottish citizenship in the event of Sindy?
After what's going to happen no-one will ever again say that leaving the EU would be a good idea.0 -
Just like last time, both campaigns wouldn't touch him with yours.isam said:Get Farage to campaign for Yes in Scotland and all the undecideds like @Theuniondivvie will vote to stay!
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By Sam Coates of The Times
1. So I'm a bit baffled by Nicola Sturgeon's referendum timing. Can someone explain what's happening because as far as I can see:
2. Sturgeon wants #indyref2 next year - which is mid Brexit talks. She will promise something she can't deliver: continuity EU for Scotland.
3. This means that EU membership uncertain. Currency uncertain. Relationship with rUK uncertain. Means huge risks on her side
4. Scexit takes 2 years - meanining it takes place after Brexit. And during that intervening gap would Scotland be in or out of EU?
5. Spain wd veto Scottish "continuity" membership in a heartbeat. So this doesn't look like it will fly without radically changed circs
6. So these are hardly ideal conditions for a referendum - centrepiece is continuity which voters will know they can't offer. So why do it
7. Is it - therefore - a ruse? And she knows No10 wont accept? And it suits No10 and FM to kick can down road while pretending otherwise?0 -
You mean the Tories dragged us into the EEC - without a vote - and are now determined to take the "suicide option" of getting us out of the EU which again no one [ the suicide option ] voted for. To clarify, no one voted for a hard brexit. Certainly not, Hannan and Johnson.SimonStClare said:
Indeed. - The SNP protested at being dragged into the EU by England, they’re protesting now at England dragging them out, it really makes no odds, a second, third and even fourth Indyref was always going to be on the cards.Alanbrooke said:
preciselyMarqueeMark said:Does anybody seriously think that if the UK had voted to Remain, Sturgeon and the SNP wouldn't still have been agitating for a second referendum?
It's all they've got.0 -
@bet365 prices:
Year of Next Scottish Independence Referendum
2017 33/1
2018 8/1
2019 9/4
2020 7/2
2021 5/1
Not before 2022 2/1
Result of Next Scottish Independence Referendum
Yes to Independence 10/11
No to Independence 10/11
https://www.bet365.com/#/AC/B5/C20522322/D1/E32570335/F2/0 -
Oh my word - reject your white privilege
Neotaster
This is a real thing that people share seriously. https://t.co/EqbfsEpVHX
#10 Recognise you're still a racist, no matter what0 -
I seem to recall there being a vote on leaving the EU sometime last year.surbiton said:
You mean the Tories dragged us into the EEC - without a vote - and are now determined to take the "suicide option" of getting us out of the EU which again no one [ the suicide option ] voted for. To clarify, no one voted for a hard brexit. Certainly not, Hannan and Johnson.SimonStClare said:
Indeed. - The SNP protested at being dragged into the EU by England, they’re protesting now at England dragging them out, it really makes no odds, a second, third and even fourth Indyref was always going to be on the cards.Alanbrooke said:
preciselyMarqueeMark said:Does anybody seriously think that if the UK had voted to Remain, Sturgeon and the SNP wouldn't still have been agitating for a second referendum?
It's all they've got.0 -
I hope I'm wrong, but I think Scotland will go this time.
I think the political differences between Scotland and the rest of the UK are irreconcilable.
There is a way in which a new settlement could be forged, but it would be radical and I doubt the capability and capacity of our politicians to do what's necessary to achieve it.0 -
Perhaps Theresa May can use her influence and get Donald Trump to campaign for Scottish Independence.Theuniondivvie said:
Just like last time, both campaigns wouldn't touch him with yours.isam said:Get Farage to campaign for Yes in Scotland and all the undecideds like @Theuniondivvie will vote to stay!
0 -
Haha! Have you decided how you'll vote yet or waiting to see which politician says what?Theuniondivvie said:
Just like last time, both campaigns wouldn't touch him with yours.isam said:Get Farage to campaign for Yes in Scotland and all the undecideds like @Theuniondivvie will vote to stay!
0 -
Regardless, of all these, Scotland will get EEA status pretty easily. I am not sure what Spain can do about that.TheScreamingEagles said:By Sam Coates of The Times
1. So I'm a bit baffled by Nicola Sturgeon's referendum timing. Can someone explain what's happening because as far as I can see:
2. Sturgeon wants #indyref2 next year - which is mid Brexit talks. She will promise something she can't deliver: continuity EU for Scotland.
3. This means that EU membership uncertain. Currency uncertain. Relationship with rUK uncertain. Means huge risks on her side
4. Scexit takes 2 years - meanining it takes place after Brexit. And during that intervening gap would Scotland be in or out of EU?
5. Spain wd veto Scottish "continuity" membership in a heartbeat. So this doesn't look like it will fly without radically changed circs
6. So these are hardly ideal conditions for a referendum - centrepiece is continuity which voters will know they can't offer. So why do it
7. Is it - therefore - a ruse? And she knows No10 wont accept? And it suits No10 and FM to kick can down road while pretending otherwise?0 -
I suppose the treaty doesn't say that it's an *Earth* year. Neptune's lasts 165 earth years.logical_song said:
The EU is frequently able to distort the length of an official day, doing so for a year or two is just a matter of scale.david_herdson said:
Without being explicit, the text of the treaty is about as clear as it could be, as indeed is the logic of the clause. How is it possible to state that membership will end at the commencement of the agreement / the two-year limit / the extended limit, if one side could unilaterally terminate the withdrawal discussions and return to the status quo ante?PeterC said:
This presumes A50 cannot be reversed. But no one knows for sure about that as the treaty does not address the issue. It would be useful to get a definitive ruling so each will then know where he stands.Richard_Nabavi said:
Unfortunately, there is no mechanism for a climbdown, humiliating or otherwise.williamglenn said:Your judgement is lacking. Having established that the Theresa May is not in control, the EU, and the UK, would have no interest in going over the cliff. There will be a humiliating climbdown.
0 -
williamglenn said:
The EU result is the death-knell for hard-core Euroscepticism in Britain.isam said:Maybe the Remainers who can't handle the EU result can apply for Scottish citizenship in the event of Sindy?
blockquote>
'Tis but a scratch. A flesh wound.0 -
Trump touching someone with his would be the worry then.TheScreamingEagles said:
Perhaps Theresa May can use her influence and get Donald Trump to campaign for Scottish Independence.Theuniondivvie said:
Just like last time, both campaigns wouldn't touch him with yours.isam said:Get Farage to campaign for Yes in Scotland and all the undecideds like @Theuniondivvie will vote to stay!
0 -
0
-
There's a bloke sitting behind me in the office (one of your Islington party members) who's just broadcast very loudly that all Leavers are far-right British nationalists and fascists.RochdalePioneers said:
I didn't endorse either the immigration argument or the NHS funding argument. And with stopping immigration pretty well accepted as functionally impossible even with hard brexit it was a ludicrous argument to begin with.HYUFD said:Complete and utter rubbish. You voted Leave fully endorsing the Leave campaign's exploitation of the immigration issue and you cannot wash your hands of it now or indeed the fact you may have pushed Scotland towards independence. I voted Remain but recognise the Leave vote has to be honoured
People may have voted to leave thinking foreigners would go home. Or that it meant hard brexit. Or that we we "take back control". Thats up to them. Not why I voted to leave.
Are you basically arguing that someone voting for Party A as the least worst option is endorsing them? Thats complete and utter rubbish, to coin a phrase
I ignore him, but referendums seem to do some very funny things to people.0 -
All is for the best in this, the best of all possible worlds.williamglenn said:
The EU result is the death-knell for hard-core Euroscepticism in Britain.isam said:Maybe the Remainers who can't handle the EU result can apply for Scottish citizenship in the event of Sindy?
After what's going to happen no-one will ever again say that leaving the EU would be a good idea.0 -
Some parts of the UK are quite a nasty place to live, frankly. However, we cannot give up. It is our country too.Monty said:Personally, I think the Scots would be mad to stay chained to UKIP Island now that England has voted for Brexit. Go, and go quickly would be my advice. And I think the EU would welcome them with open arms. It would look great to have them join while the UK leaves. I used to be for the union, but Brexit has changed my mind. This isn't the country I thought it was. Go Scotland, and don't look back!
0 -
O/T
For those of who work in regulatory compliance in the Banking and Financial Services Industry, the new defence is going to be called 'Doing a Hogg'
MPs will this week discuss whether the Bank of England’s new deputy governor should remain in her post.
Charlotte Hogg is under growing pressure to consider her position after failing to disclose a potential conflict of interest. Omitting to state that her brother is a senior manager at Barclays is a breach of the Bank’s code of conduct, which Ms Hogg helped to draft.
The Treasury select committee, which uncovered the error, is expected to debate whether Ms Hogg, 46, is still suitable for the role in the coming days. Under her remit as deputy governor, Ms Hogg supervises markets and banking and serves as chief operating officer.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mps-to-mull-hoggs-fate-as-doubts-rise-k6bdvkjl00 -
Yet still most polls show NO ahead and particularly amongst the old who turnout most, May will also likely promise yet more powers too, however it will certainly be much tighter than last timeCasino_Royale said:I hope I'm wrong, but I think Scotland will go this time.
I think the political differences between Scotland and the rest of the UK are irreconcilable.
There is a way in which a new settlement could be forged, but it would be radical and I doubt the capability and capacity of our politicians to do what's necessary to achieve it.0 -
No, Scottish Labour's shot.williamglenn said:
To make a comeback as Prime Minister of an independent Scotland?david_herdson said:
Gordon Brown, your moment has come.MyBurningEars said:
One major consequence of the commons wipe-out of SLAB (and indeed the other parties just hanging on in there) has been a culling of Scottish Big Beasts from political life.AlastairMeeks said:
There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.TheScreamingEagles said:
You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
And the collapse of SLAB in the polls, means putting forward a SLAB figure as head unionist cheerleader now carries similar disadvantages (if not quite the same level of toxicity to the decisive floating voters) to putting forward a Tory figure.
There is, however, a vacancy for a left-of-centre leader of Scotland Says No.0 -
Can someone answer me if Scottish indyref polling has been "fixed"?
Working from memory here, but I seem to remember polling being at 48:52 in the final week of the indyref, leading to the 45:55 result.
If the polling is showing 48:52 now, does that imply it could be 45:55 again or has it been fixed and tweaked such that it really is 48:52 (or basically TCTC given MoE)0 -
No they weren't. Scotland is more Tory than it has been in years. A few years of calm would have allowed the SNPs record at Holyrood to be properly examined and the independence case to be undermined.Casino_Royale said:I think the political differences between Scotland and the rest of the UK are irreconcilable.
What is now happening is a direct result of the Brexit vote.
0 -
I disagree. The principle of self determination should apply to areas within Scotland - and , if necessary, I would argue the same re Wales & England should the issue ever arise. The Ulster Counties were - rightly - not forced into a single Irish state against their will - and the same should apply to regions within Scotland which might prefer to remain members of rUK. I have always thought of Great Britain as my coutry - England , Scotland & Wales being regions really.surbiton said:
I don't agree. Then London should be allowed to stay in the EU.justin124 said:
On the same basis, there may be areas that wish to separate from Scotland - the Border areas as well as the Shetlands. Those living there should certainly have their view taken into account in the same way that the Ulster counties were permitted to remain within the UK in the early 1920s.HurstLlama said:
Good. Hanging on to relationships that have essentially expired is never a good idea for either party. If the people of Scotland or NI or Wales want to make their own way in the world good for them. I see no reason to grieve or to worry.SouthamObserver said:What else was anyone expecting? Brexit was inevitably going to lead to a second independence referendum. The UK has had its day. Just as England has drifted inexorably away from the EU, so Scotland is drifting inexorably away from England and Wales. Northern Ireland is too. It's all very sad, but there is no sustainable British demos anymore. Last June's vote was the final nail in its coffin.
Scotland is different to the Shetlands, for example, because it is a separate country, maybe not in UN terms. After all, it is the United Kingdom0 -
If we do not leave the EU prepare for PM Faragewilliamglenn said:
The EU result is the death-knell for hard-core Euroscepticism in Britain.isam said:Maybe the Remainers who can't handle the EU result can apply for Scottish citizenship in the event of Sindy?
After what's going to happen no-one will ever again say that leaving the EU would be a good idea.0 -
Yes, very happy with that.PlatoSaid said:Oh my word - reject your white privilege
Neotaster
This is a real thing that people share seriously. https://t.co/EqbfsEpVHX
#10 Recognise you're still a racist, no matter what
As I fully embrace #10 I don't give a runny crap about the other 9.0 -
The polling was accurate if the pollsters had known turnout was going to be 85%Casino_Royale said:Can someone answer me if Scottish indyref polling has been "fixed"?
Working from memory here, but I seem to remember polling being at 48:52 in the final week of the indyref, leading to the 45:55 result.
If the polling is showing 48:52 now, does that imply it could be 45:55 again or has it been fixed and tweaked such that it really is 48:52 (or basically TCTC given MoE)
It was one of those few instances where self certifying turnout was accurate/had underestimated the turnout.
The pollsters had no baseline to work from, a problem they won't face this time.
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/8412577223393075210 -
You saw the posters against immigration the Leave campaign put up and you knew full well a Leave vote could break up the UK yet you went ahead and did it anyway. Therefore if Scotland does vote for independence you must share the blame, tough!RochdalePioneers said:
I didn't endorse either the immigration argument or the NHS funding argument. And with stopping immigration pretty well accepted as functionally impossible even with hard brexit it was a ludicrous argument to begin with.HYUFD said:Complete and utter rubbish. You voted Leave fully endorsing the Leave campaign's exploitation of the immigration issue and you cannot wash your hands of it now or indeed the fact you may have pushed Scotland towards independence. I voted Remain but recognise the Leave vote has to be honoured
People may have voted to leave thinking foreigners would go home. Or that it meant hard brexit. Or that we we "take back control". Thats up to them. Not why I voted to leave.
Are you basically arguing that someone voting for Party A as the least worst option is endorsing them? Thats complete and utter rubbish, to coin a phrase
..0 -
I'm pretty sure all such polling is now normalised to the result, which should theoretically fix it.Casino_Royale said:Can someone answer me if Scottish indyref polling has been "fixed"?
Working from memory here, but I seem to remember polling being at 48:52 in the final week of the indyref, leading to the 45:55 result.
If the polling is showing 48:52 now, does that imply it could be 45:55 again or has it been fixed and tweaked such that it really is 48:52 (or basically TCTC given MoE)0 -
I've signed up and volunteered to help.williamglenn said:Yes campaign website launched:
https://www.ref.scot/
It even accepted a Gibraltar postcode.0 -
No - SLAB need to claw back the Unionists who have moved to the Tories.surbiton said:
SLAB should and probably will come out in favour of independence. That is the only way SLAB could begin to claw back their lost voters. By siding with Tories is a death wish as Corbyn is doing now.malcolmg said:
Yes a Tory leading will be a big help toYes for sureMyBurningEars said:
One major consequence of the commons wipe-out of SLAB (and indeed the other parties just hanging on in there) has been a culling of Scottish Big Beasts from political life.AlastairMeeks said:
There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.TheScreamingEagles said:
You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
And the collapse of SLAB in the polls, means putting forward a SLAB figure as head unionist cheerleader now carries similar disadvantages (if not quite the same level of toxicity to the decisive floating voters) to putting forward a Tory figure.0 -
Hannam and Johnson quite happily exploited the immigration issue to win Leave votes in the referendum campaign as part of Vote Leavesurbiton said:
You mean the Tories dragged us into the EEC - without a vote - and are now determined to take the "suicide option" of getting us out of the EU which again no one [ the suicide option ] voted for. To clarify, no one voted for a hard brexit. Certainly not, Hannan and Johnson.SimonStClare said:
Indeed. - The SNP protested at being dragged into the EU by England, they’re protesting now at England dragging them out, it really makes no odds, a second, third and even fourth Indyref was always going to be on the cards.Alanbrooke said:
preciselyMarqueeMark said:Does anybody seriously think that if the UK had voted to Remain, Sturgeon and the SNP wouldn't still have been agitating for a second referendum?
It's all they've got.0 -
Well this should accelerate the Scottish move to a two-party state. The lack of SLab voices on PB.com 2005-2010 was truly the canary in the coal mine.0
-
In a post independence Scotland a question on wether the Borders should remain part of Scotland or become part of England would be hilariously one sided. I'd imagine 97% remain at worst.justin124 said:
On the same basis, there may be areas that wish to separate from Scotland - the Border areas as well as the Shetlands. Those living there should certainly have their view taken into account in the same way that the Ulster counties were permitted to remain within the UK in the early 1920s.HurstLlama said:
Good. Hanging on to relationships that have essentially expired is never a good idea for either party. If the people of Scotland or NI or Wales want to make their own way in the world good for them. I see no reason to grieve or to worry.SouthamObserver said:What else was anyone expecting? Brexit was inevitably going to lead to a second independence referendum. The UK has had its day. Just as England has drifted inexorably away from the EU, so Scotland is drifting inexorably away from England and Wales. Northern Ireland is too. It's all very sad, but there is no sustainable British demos anymore. Last June's vote was the final nail in its coffin.
0 -
Good luck, fair Scotland.
I wish you well.
0 -
I wonder if this might lead them to make the same mistake in reverse. Perhaps No voters simply won't turn out this time.TheScreamingEagles said:
The polling was accurate if the pollsters had known turnout was going to be 85%Casino_Royale said:Can someone answer me if Scottish indyref polling has been "fixed"?
Working from memory here, but I seem to remember polling being at 48:52 in the final week of the indyref, leading to the 45:55 result.
If the polling is showing 48:52 now, does that imply it could be 45:55 again or has it been fixed and tweaked such that it really is 48:52 (or basically TCTC given MoE)
It was one of those few instances where self certifying turnout was accurate/had underestimated the turnout.
The pollsters had no baseline to work from, a problem they won't face this time.0 -
I think Tusk said that Brexit could be reversed. Logically, Brexit only takes place after the final agreement is done and agreed by all the countries and the European parliament. So until the whole process is gone through, there is nothing on the European side to stop reversing A50.david_herdson said:
Without being explicit, the text of the treaty is about as clear as it could be, as indeed is the logic of the clause. How is it possible to state that membership will end at the commencement of the agreement / the two-year limit / the extended limit, if one side could unilaterally terminate the withdrawal discussions and return to the status quo ante?PeterC said:
This presumes A50 cannot be reversed. But no one knows for sure about that as the treaty does not address the issue. It would be useful to get a definitive ruling so each will then know where he stands.Richard_Nabavi said:
Unfortunately, there is no mechanism for a climbdown, humiliating or otherwise.williamglenn said:Your judgement is lacking. Having established that the Theresa May is not in control, the EU, and the UK, would have no interest in going over the cliff. There will be a humiliating climbdown.
Britain may not agree with that. But that is where lawyers make money.0 -
A majority of Scottish exports go to the UK unlike UK exports to the EUTheuniondivvie said:0 -
SLab are a Unionist party. It is a principled stand that will kill them. You have to respect them for that.surbiton said:
SLAB should and probably will come out in favour of independence. That is the only way SLAB could begin to claw back their lost voters. By siding with Tories is a death wish as Corbyn is doing now.malcolmg said:
Yes a Tory leading will be a big help toYes for sureMyBurningEars said:
One major consequence of the commons wipe-out of SLAB (and indeed the other parties just hanging on in there) has been a culling of Scottish Big Beasts from political life.AlastairMeeks said:
There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.TheScreamingEagles said:
You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
And the collapse of SLAB in the polls, means putting forward a SLAB figure as head unionist cheerleader now carries similar disadvantages (if not quite the same level of toxicity to the decisive floating voters) to putting forward a Tory figure.0 -
Ruth?david_herdson said:There is, however, a vacancy for a left-of-centre leader of Scotland Says No.
0 -
Hannan was totally in favour of the EEA option - so was not against freedom of movement. Please do not start new lies. I know Leavers are good at that.HYUFD said:
Hannam and Johnson quite happily exploited the immigration issue to win Leave votes in the referendum campaign as part of Vote Leavesurbiton said:
You mean the Tories dragged us into the EEC - without a vote - and are now determined to take the "suicide option" of getting us out of the EU which again no one [ the suicide option ] voted for. To clarify, no one voted for a hard brexit. Certainly not, Hannan and Johnson.SimonStClare said:
Indeed. - The SNP protested at being dragged into the EU by England, they’re protesting now at England dragging them out, it really makes no odds, a second, third and even fourth Indyref was always going to be on the cards.Alanbrooke said:
preciselyMarqueeMark said:Does anybody seriously think that if the UK had voted to Remain, Sturgeon and the SNP wouldn't still have been agitating for a second referendum?
It's all they've got.
0 -
errr SLAB sowed the seeds of Scottish discord for years by banging the drum of bloody English TorriesAlistair said:
SLab are a Unionist party. It is a principled stand that will kill them. You have to respect them for that.surbiton said:
SLAB should and probably will come out in favour of independence. That is the only way SLAB could begin to claw back their lost voters. By siding with Tories is a death wish as Corbyn is doing now.malcolmg said:
Yes a Tory leading will be a big help toYes for sureMyBurningEars said:
One major consequence of the commons wipe-out of SLAB (and indeed the other parties just hanging on in there) has been a culling of Scottish Big Beasts from political life.AlastairMeeks said:
There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.TheScreamingEagles said:
You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
And the collapse of SLAB in the polls, means putting forward a SLAB figure as head unionist cheerleader now carries similar disadvantages (if not quite the same level of toxicity to the decisive floating voters) to putting forward a Tory figure.
They did the SNPs groundwork for them
0 -
Quite right. The dangers of a Brexit vote triggering the breakup of the UK were advanced in no uncertain terms during the EURef campaign. Ergo, those who voted Leave either a) were comfortable with Scotland leaving the union or b) were uncomfortable but such such a small degree it wasn't salient for them and it didn't change their vote.HYUFD said:
You saw the posters against immigration the Leave campaign put up and you knew full well a Leave vote could break up the UK yet you went ahead and did it anyway. Therefore if Scotland does vote for independence you must share the blame, tough!RochdalePioneers said:
I didn't endorse either the immigration argument or the NHS funding argument. And with stopping immigration pretty well accepted as functionally impossible even with hard brexit it was a ludicrous argument to begin with.HYUFD said:Complete and utter rubbish. You voted Leave fully endorsing the Leave campaign's exploitation of the immigration issue and you cannot wash your hands of it now or indeed the fact you may have pushed Scotland towards independence. I voted Remain but recognise the Leave vote has to be honoured
People may have voted to leave thinking foreigners would go home. Or that it meant hard brexit. Or that we we "take back control". Thats up to them. Not why I voted to leave.
Are you basically arguing that someone voting for Party A as the least worst option is endorsing them? Thats complete and utter rubbish, to coin a phrase
..
I think, as was said at the time, you break it, you own it. Pro-Union Leavers should repent in leisure.0 -
It is not unionism that has killed them, it is being crap that has done for them.Alistair said:
SLab are a Unionist party. It is a principled stand that will kill them. You have to respect them for that.surbiton said:
SLAB should and probably will come out in favour of independence. That is the only way SLAB could begin to claw back their lost voters. By siding with Tories is a death wish as Corbyn is doing now.malcolmg said:
Yes a Tory leading will be a big help toYes for sureMyBurningEars said:
One major consequence of the commons wipe-out of SLAB (and indeed the other parties just hanging on in there) has been a culling of Scottish Big Beasts from political life.AlastairMeeks said:
There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.TheScreamingEagles said:
You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
And the collapse of SLAB in the polls, means putting forward a SLAB figure as head unionist cheerleader now carries similar disadvantages (if not quite the same level of toxicity to the decisive floating voters) to putting forward a Tory figure.0 -
Have people missed the Spanish MEP saying that Spain wouldn't veto Scottish EU membership?surbiton said:
Regardless, of all these, Scotland will get EEA status pretty easily. I am not sure what Spain can do about that.TheScreamingEagles said:By Sam Coates of The Times
1. So I'm a bit baffled by Nicola Sturgeon's referendum timing. Can someone explain what's happening because as far as I can see:
2. Sturgeon wants #indyref2 next year - which is mid Brexit talks. She will promise something she can't deliver: continuity EU for Scotland.
3. This means that EU membership uncertain. Currency uncertain. Relationship with rUK uncertain. Means huge risks on her side
4. Scexit takes 2 years - meanining it takes place after Brexit. And during that intervening gap would Scotland be in or out of EU?
5. Spain wd veto Scottish "continuity" membership in a heartbeat. So this doesn't look like it will fly without radically changed circs
6. So these are hardly ideal conditions for a referendum - centrepiece is continuity which voters will know they can't offer. So why do it
7. Is it - therefore - a ruse? And she knows No10 wont accept? And it suits No10 and FM to kick can down road while pretending otherwise?0 -
Threaten to leave the EU as the only way to stay together?surbiton said:
Regardless, of all these, Scotland will get EEA status pretty easily. I am not sure what Spain can do about that.TheScreamingEagles said:By Sam Coates of The Times
1. So I'm a bit baffled by Nicola Sturgeon's referendum timing. Can someone explain what's happening because as far as I can see:
2. Sturgeon wants #indyref2 next year - which is mid Brexit talks. She will promise something she can't deliver: continuity EU for Scotland.
3. This means that EU membership uncertain. Currency uncertain. Relationship with rUK uncertain. Means huge risks on her side
4. Scexit takes 2 years - meanining it takes place after Brexit. And during that intervening gap would Scotland be in or out of EU?
5. Spain wd veto Scottish "continuity" membership in a heartbeat. So this doesn't look like it will fly without radically changed circs
6. So these are hardly ideal conditions for a referendum - centrepiece is continuity which voters will know they can't offer. So why do it
7. Is it - therefore - a ruse? And she knows No10 wont accept? And it suits No10 and FM to kick can down road while pretending otherwise?0 -
pound up :-)Bojabob said:Good luck, fair Scotland.
I wish you well.0 -
Alistair said:
SLab are a Unionist party. It is a principled stand that will kill them. You have to respect them for that.surbiton said:
SLAB should and probably will come out in favour of independence. That is the only way SLAB could begin to claw back their lost voters. By siding with Tories is a death wish as Corbyn is doing now.malcolmg said:
Yes a Tory leading will be a big help toYes for sureMyBurningEars said:
One major consequence of the commons wipe-out of SLAB (and indeed the other parties just hanging on in there) has been a culling of Scottish Big Beasts from political life.AlastairMeeks said:
There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.TheScreamingEagles said:
You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
And the collapse of SLAB in the polls, means putting forward a SLAB figure as head unionist cheerleader now carries similar disadvantages (if not quite the same level of toxicity to the decisive floating voters) to putting forward a Tory figure.
Many, many SLAB members and voters voted YES last time. I think there will be a major introspection on this. In fact, Labour can only remain a relevant left-of-centre party in Scotland if they go for independence. Ironically, this will immediately reduce support for the SNP.
0 -
Fine. Does that apply to the EEA as well ?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
We are going to eat an amazing calibration tool as pollsters can ask how people voted at the ast IndyRef.Casino_Royale said:Can someone answer me if Scottish indyref polling has been "fixed"?
Working from memory here, but I seem to remember polling being at 48:52 in the final week of the indyref, leading to the 45:55 result.
If the polling is showing 48:52 now, does that imply it could be 45:55 again or has it been fixed and tweaked such that it really is 48:52 (or basically TCTC given MoE)
Any poll that doesn't feature that needs a realllllly good reason not to be ignored.0 -
So then we have two Indy parties versus one Unionist (with vague apologies to the Scottish LD's). FPTP won't be kind...surbiton said:Alistair said:
SLab are a Unionist party. It is a principled stand that will kill them. You have to respect them for that.surbiton said:
SLAB should and probably will come out in favour of independence. That is the only way SLAB could begin to claw back their lost voters. By siding with Tories is a death wish as Corbyn is doing now.malcolmg said:
Yes a Tory leading will be a big help toYes for sureMyBurningEars said:
One major consequence of the commons wipe-out of SLAB (and indeed the other parties just hanging on in there) has been a culling of Scottish Big Beasts from political life.AlastairMeeks said:
There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.TheScreamingEagles said:
You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
And the collapse of SLAB in the polls, means putting forward a SLAB figure as head unionist cheerleader now carries similar disadvantages (if not quite the same level of toxicity to the decisive floating voters) to putting forward a Tory figure.
Many, many SLAB members and voters voted YES last time. I think there will be a major introspection on this. In fact, Labour can only remain a relevant left-of-centre party in Scotland if they go for independence. Ironically, this will immediately reduce support for the SNP.0 -
Exactly, all Leave voters knew a Leave vote risked Scottish independence, if they accepted that as a price worth paying to leave the EU then fine but they absolutely cannot deny their Leave vote boosted the SNP causeBojabob said:
Quite right. The dangers of a Brexit vote triggering the breakup of the UK were advanced in no uncertain terms during the EURef campaign. Ergo, those who voted Leave either a) were comfortable with Scotland leaving the union or b) were uncomfortable but such such a small degree it wasn't salient for them and it didn't change their vote.HYUFD said:
You saw the posters against immigration the Leave campaign put up and you knew full well a Leave vote could break up the UK yet you went ahead and did it anyway. Therefore if Scotland does vote for independence you must share the blame, tough!RochdalePioneers said:
I didn't endorse either the immigration argument or the NHS funding argument. And with stopping immigration pretty well accepted as functionally impossible even with hard brexit it was a ludicrous argument to begin with.HYUFD said:Complete and utter rubbish. You voted Leave fully endorsing the Leave campaign's exploitation of the immigration issue and you cannot wash your hands of it now or indeed the fact you may have pushed Scotland towards independence. I voted Remain but recognise the Leave vote has to be honoured
People may have voted to leave thinking foreigners would go home. Or that it meant hard brexit. Or that we we "take back control". Thats up to them. Not why I voted to leave.
Are you basically arguing that someone voting for Party A as the least worst option is endorsing them? Thats complete and utter rubbish, to coin a phrase
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I think, as was said at the time, you break it, you own it. Pro-Union Leavers should repent in leisure.0 -
Were they talking about vetoing an application to join after independence, or vetoing continued membership which the EU themselves say isn't possible?Alistair said:
Have people missed the Spanish MEP saying that Spain wouldn't veto Scottish EU membership?surbiton said:
Regardless, of all these, Scotland will get EEA status pretty easily. I am not sure what Spain can do about that.TheScreamingEagles said:By Sam Coates of The Times
1. So I'm a bit baffled by Nicola Sturgeon's referendum timing. Can someone explain what's happening because as far as I can see:
2. Sturgeon wants #indyref2 next year - which is mid Brexit talks. She will promise something she can't deliver: continuity EU for Scotland.
3. This means that EU membership uncertain. Currency uncertain. Relationship with rUK uncertain. Means huge risks on her side
4. Scexit takes 2 years - meanining it takes place after Brexit. And during that intervening gap would Scotland be in or out of EU?
5. Spain wd veto Scottish "continuity" membership in a heartbeat. So this doesn't look like it will fly without radically changed circs
6. So these are hardly ideal conditions for a referendum - centrepiece is continuity which voters will know they can't offer. So why do it
7. Is it - therefore - a ruse? And she knows No10 wont accept? And it suits No10 and FM to kick can down road while pretending otherwise?0 -
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what guffHYUFD said:
Exactly, all Leave voters knew a Leave vote risked Scottish independence, if they accepted that as a price worth paying to leave the EU then fine but they absolutely cannot deny their Leave vote boosted the SNP causeBojabob said:
Quite right. The dangers of a Brexit vote triggering the breakup of the UK were advanced in no uncertain terms during the EURef campaign. Ergo, those who voted Leave either a) were comfortable with Scotland leaving the union or b) were uncomfortable but such such a small degree it wasn't salient for them and it didn't change their vote.HYUFD said:
You saw the posters against immigration the Leave campaign put up and you knew full well a Leave vote could break up the UK yet you went ahead and did it anyway. Therefore if Scotland does vote for independence you must share the blame, tough!RochdalePioneers said:
I didn't endorse either the immigration argument or the NHS funding argument. And with stopping immigration pretty well accepted as functionally impossible even with hard brexit it was a ludicrous argument to begin with.HYUFD said:Complete and utter rubbish. You voted Leave fully endorsing the Leave campaign's exploitation of the immigration issue and you cannot wash your hands of it now or indeed the fact you may have pushed Scotland towards independence. I voted Remain but recognise the Leave vote has to be honoured
People may have voted to leave thinking foreigners would go home. Or that it meant hard brexit. Or that we we "take back control". Thats up to them. Not why I voted to leave.
Are you basically arguing that someone voting for Party A as the least worst option is endorsing them? Thats complete and utter rubbish, to coin a phrase
..
I think, as was said at the time, you break it, you own it. Pro-Union Leavers should repent in leisure.
the SNP would have called a second indyref no matter what, it's what they do0 -
Quoting someone who can't spell Barroso is a good way to spread misinformation.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
No voters are quieter but there are 10 percentage points more of hardcore Unionists than there are of hardcore Indy supporters.williamglenn said:
I wonder if this might lead them to make the same mistake in reverse. Perhaps No voters simply won't turn out this time.TheScreamingEagles said:
The polling was accurate if the pollsters had known turnout was going to be 85%Casino_Royale said:Can someone answer me if Scottish indyref polling has been "fixed"?
Working from memory here, but I seem to remember polling being at 48:52 in the final week of the indyref, leading to the 45:55 result.
If the polling is showing 48:52 now, does that imply it could be 45:55 again or has it been fixed and tweaked such that it really is 48:52 (or basically TCTC given MoE)
It was one of those few instances where self certifying turnout was accurate/had underestimated the turnout.
The pollsters had no baseline to work from, a problem they won't face this time.0 -
Registered 11 days ago.....so not a spur of the moment decisionwilliamglenn said:Yes campaign website launched:
https://www.ref.scot/
What is it with Nats and South West England?
It's hosted in Gloucester......0 -
The Scottish investment office will have nothing to do now for the next 3 yearsTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Having Regrexit Sean?SeanT said:
But the form of Leaving is yet to be decided. TMay can avoid this entire McClusterfuck by softening her stance on Brexit, fudging some kind of Single Market membership under a different name.Richard_Nabavi said:
I don't think so, because it would require unanimity. Alastair's metaphor of the barrel going over the falls is right, I think. For that matter, so it should be - we have had the referendum, it has been decided we're leaving.SouthamObserver said:If one is wanted, one will be found.
No need for indyref2. The UK is saved.
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