politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The persistence of kippers – looking at where post-referendum
Comments
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Dinnae be silly.Dura_Ace said:
Armed insurrection and/or UDI.TheScreamingEagles said:So what happens if Theresa May is disinclined to acquiesce to Nicola Sturgeon's request?
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Yes. 21 years since my 29th birthday.TheScreamingEagles said:
21st?SandyRentool said:
Thank you Mr E - it is a 'big' birthday too!TheScreamingEagles said:
Happy Birthday.SandyRentool said:As a Leaver who also supports Scottish independence (as an Englander), this is shaping up to be a good day.
It is also my birthday, and I've already got my presents, so I am in a contented state.
If only Jezza would announce his resignation...0 -
And why would they do that, given that it is the most effective way to undermine May's negotiating position?Richard_Nabavi said:In any case, the people who are going to pooh-pooh her are our EU friends.
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Yep. I am similarly in favour of both Brexit and Sindy. A good day all round.SandyRentool said:As a Leaver who also supports Scottish independence (as an Englander), this is shaping up to be a good day.
It is also my birthday, and I've already got my presents, so I am in a contented state.
If only Jezza would announce his resignation...0 -
https://twitter.com/jamiemaxwell86/status/841261461858996225AlastairMeeks said:I think we're about to find out where all those donations have been going that haven't been going to the SNP.
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**Checks furiously for Mike's holiday plans for 2018/19**0
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George EatonVerified account @georgeeaton 14m14 minutes ago
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No chance that May will agree to referendum during Brexit negotiations.0 -
50 is the new 21. Anyway many happy returns.SandyRentool said:
Yes. 21 years since my 29th birthday.TheScreamingEagles said:
21st?SandyRentool said:
Thank you Mr E - it is a 'big' birthday too!TheScreamingEagles said:
Happy Birthday.SandyRentool said:As a Leaver who also supports Scottish independence (as an Englander), this is shaping up to be a good day.
It is also my birthday, and I've already got my presents, so I am in a contented state.
If only Jezza would announce his resignation...0 -
You can have one or the other. Which do you chose?Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep. I am similarly in favour of both Brexit and Sindy. A good day all round.SandyRentool said:As a Leaver who also supports Scottish independence (as an Englander), this is shaping up to be a good day.
It is also my birthday, and I've already got my presents, so I am in a contented state.
If only Jezza would announce his resignation...0 -
If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?0
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@alexmassie: Kingsley Amis suggested Robert Conquest reissue "The Great Terror" with a new title: “I told you so, you fucking fools”.0
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@Mr_Rentool – Many happy returns of the day. Does this 'biggy' end in a zero?0
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You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
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Can you imagine May and Corbyn delivering a last minute vow to the Scottish people?AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
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Because undermining her negotiating position is not their only, or even top, priority, and, more importantly, because there are amongst the EU27 some countries and politicians who are most definitely not cool with seccessionist fantasies.williamglenn said:
And why would they do that, given that it is the most effective way to undermine May's negotiating position?Richard_Nabavi said:In any case, the people who are going to pooh-pooh her are our EU friends.
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This referendum call wont survive the local elections.AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
Nicla has seriously overplayed her hand here - she must be feeling under pressure from Eck.
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There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.TheScreamingEagles said:
You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
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The seccessionist fantasy they're dealing with is Brexit. Scottish independence is merely a consequence of that.Richard_Nabavi said:
Because undermining her negotiating position is not their only, or even top, priority, and, more importantly, because there are amongst the EU27 some countries and politicians who are most definitely not cool with seccessionist fantasies.williamglenn said:
And why would they do that, given that it is the most effective way to undermine May's negotiating position?Richard_Nabavi said:In any case, the people who are going to pooh-pooh her are our EU friends.
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Just about what you would expect from lowlife unionist. I bet the girls love youDavid_Evershed said:Sandpit said:
LOL, surely the best thing the media can do today is focus on the Commons and Lords, rather than giving jumped-up Ms McGrievance the oxygen of publicity she so desperately craves?CarlottaVance said:
Tarty McTartFace hectoring again.0 -
Nor keen on a new entrant with a stonking budget deficit.Richard_Nabavi said:
Because undermining her negotiating position is not their only, or even top, priority, and, more importantly, because there are amongst the EU27 some countries and politicians who are most definitely not cool with seccessionist fantasies.williamglenn said:
And why would they do that, given that it is the most effective way to undermine May's negotiating position?Richard_Nabavi said:In any case, the people who are going to pooh-pooh her are our EU friends.
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I am not sure they are going to crank up the volume while doing so. Why would they intervene in domestic UK politics to announce that they are not willing to accept something that the UK government hasn't even asked for?Richard_Nabavi said:
It's a convenient position in the short term, but a strategy based on assuming your voters are half-wits tends to run into trouble, especially if they are.MyBurningEars said:Even if she thinks it's nonsense herself, it's a convenient position, isn't it? Who's going to pooh-pooh her? Nasty unionists who are denying it to suit their own agenda, clearly. It's a nice position to be in when anyone who calls you out can be dismissed as biased due to being a non-believer and wrecker.
In any case, the people who are going to pooh-pooh her are our EU friends.
Purely from a Sindy POV TMay might do better (have done better) to make a big song and dance about seeking it, and being repeatedly denied. Obviously this timewasting would potentially make an even bigger mess of the Brexit negotiations, but the current position of "we know it doesn't work", while serious and genuinely intended, as far as I can tell, marks her out as not having tried.0 -
CUCKOO, only the plastic ones that live down southTGOHF said:
I don't think more waffle from Nicla was a bold prediction.TheScreamingEagles said:So another Project Fear Reality prediction comes true.
Salmon wants his job back - she's spinning the plates to keep him at bay.
I predict a backlash against the SNP - the jocks are bored of referendums.0 -
Both as Sturgeon will losewilliamglenn said:
You can have one or the other. Which do you chose?Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep. I am similarly in favour of both Brexit and Sindy. A good day all round.SandyRentool said:As a Leaver who also supports Scottish independence (as an Englander), this is shaping up to be a good day.
It is also my birthday, and I've already got my presents, so I am in a contented state.
If only Jezza would announce his resignation...0 -
That's why I think there's a good chance of this being carried.AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
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Indeed, as has been mentioned many times on PB. A Yes, but a politely postponed date until negotiations are completed by the PM.rottenborough said:George EatonVerified account @georgeeaton 14m14 minutes ago
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No chance that May will agree to referendum during Brexit negotiations.0 -
Ruth Davidson fits the bill if she will do itAlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
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Anyway, what will heppen is that Mrs May will agree to the referendum, but disallow the timing. It will be after Brexit, which is the only possible way it can work. Ms Sturgeon will use this as another input to the grievance factory. Life will go on.
I don't know how the referendum itself will go, though.0 -
True but I wouldn't rule out the EU bending rules to ease Scotland into remaining in the EU.HurstLlama said:
Have you read the requirements that have to be met before a state can join the Euro?williamglenn said:
The Euro.TGOHF said:williamglenn said:
They're not leaving.TGOHF said:I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.
What currency will Sindy use ?williamglenn said:
They're not leaving.TGOHF said:I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.
Next question?0 -
What odds would you make it on a referendum happening in either 2018/19?AlastairMeeks said:
There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.TheScreamingEagles said:
You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
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There are no farm animals left in Scotland that Ruth has not been photoed astride, so she's oot.AlastairMeeks said:
There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.TheScreamingEagles said:
You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
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Davidson will effectively front it even if she does not chair the No campaign and she is more popular in Scotland than Darling wasFF43 said:
That's why I think there's a good chance of this being carried.AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
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I think it is clear that Willie Rennie needs to lead the campaign.TheScreamingEagles said:
You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
He can then lead the campaign to ignore the result if he doesn't like it.0 -
Holding a third referendum after the two we had recently is "brave" - Nicla may seriously have underestimated how utterly sick the McPublic is of referendums.
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Yaba daba doo GIN, we are off and runningGIN1138 said:
That was always going to be the outcome. It's like unpicking the fabric of a country thread by thread until eventually the entire thing just falls apart.glw said:
Devolution has had precisely the opposite effect that Labour thought it would.GIN1138 said:I think there's a lot in what you say. I've always felt Scotland leaving the UK was inevitable since Labour brought in devolution.
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He probably answered all the opinion polls that made it 80-20 he was right at the time tooTheuniondivvie said:
He was lucky falling into conversation with or receiving letters from all those anonymous folk from whom he could 'quote' without owning their terms himself.isam said:
Strange word isn't it? Enoch never used it himself of course, except when quoting othersRoger said:
Those were the days! Not a piccaninni in sight.isam said:
Better than tablets in the long run I reckon. Take plenty of exercise in the fresh air tooRoger said:
I do!isam said:
Just keep saying whatever makes you feel good about yourself old chapRoger said:
I thought you voted UKIP because you wanted us to get close to a Powellite agenda where we didn't have 'wide grinning piccaninnis chasing us to the shops'?isam said:I don't see much controversial in what Alastair has said. I would probably vote UKIP still even though our objective seems to have been fulfilled, there is always the worry that once you leave, the others revert to type. The facts is that every other party leader supported Remain, and the supposedly "Hardline Brexit" PM and chancellor are both Remainers. In Stoke, every other candidate was a Remainer etc etc
Think of other places where a regime has been overthrown, would the victors be happy with the old guard in place, promising to have changed? I wont give examples as they would encourage inane faux outrage and deliberate misunderstanding, but I am sure you can figure them out!
https://goo.gl/images/kncwYI0 -
And do you think Brexit will be delivered on schedule? What happens in 2019 when there's no deal?Richard_Nabavi said:Anyway, what will heppen is that Mrs May will agree to the referendum, but disallow the timing. It will be after Brexit, which is the only possible way it can work. Ms Sturgeon will use this as another input to the grievance factory. Life will go on.
I'm afraid that as usual you are far too willing to trust that the Prime Minister is in control.0 -
Yes, they are now more significant. Even Labour might get something of a boost. I genuinely do not feel that there is any enthusiasm for a second referendum in Scotland right now and the polling supports that. Have the SNP overplayed their hand?TGOHF said:Suspect the Conservative campaign for the May local elections in Scotland just received a significant boost.
Also her speech was very much focussed on the moves to hard Brexit. If, for example, the UK negotiates tariff free access to the Single Market will she call it off?0 -
She's not in control. That is why Brexit will happen two years after Article 50 is invoked, possibly two years tomorrow.williamglenn said:
And do you think Brexit will be delivered on schedule? What happens in 2019 when there's no deal?Richard_Nabavi said:Anyway, what will heppen is that Mrs May will agree to the referendum, but disallow the timing. It will be after Brexit, which is the only possible way it can work. Ms Sturgeon will use this as another input to the grievance factory. Life will go on.
I'm afraid that as usual you are far too willing to trust that the Prime Minister is in control.0 -
Did you get your half-telegram from the Queen?SandyRentool said:
Thank you Mr E - it is a 'big' birthday too!TheScreamingEagles said:
Happy Birthday.SandyRentool said:As a Leaver who also supports Scottish independence (as an Englander), this is shaping up to be a good day.
It is also my birthday, and I've already got my presents, so I am in a contented state.
If only Jezza would announce his resignation...0 -
It was the English and Welsh voters who voted Leave who would have lost Scotland, not May who voted Remain. However as said last night May is Elizabeth 1st to Sturgeon's Mary Queen of ScotsSouthamObserver said:
To be fair, Corbyn will be getting what he wants, too, if the UK breaks-up. But you are right, Sturgeon has played a blinder on this. What will May throw at the Scots to keep them on board? Being the Conservative and Unionist PM who lost the Union would be quite something on her CV.RochdalePioneers said:By the time we get to an independence vote we will already have a Scottish deal in the bag. The EU are going to guarantee their EEA membership with at least fast track membership to the whole thing agreed. They'll be offered a better deal that the floor scrapings we're going to be proffered. And that'll be used as pressure on the rest of the UK.
What can May threaten them with? Throwing them out of the CTA, currency and customs unions? A physical border? People will be laughing in her face.
Bravo Nicola, bravo. A brilliant political gambit. Any Jeremy obsessives reading this - that's what leadership looks like.0 -
@ProfChalmers: I'd be fascinated to see how May reacts to Sturgeon's speech if I weren't convinced she'll make a very bad job of it.0
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LOL! I think that's what's known as a rhetorical question!DavidL said:Also her speech was very much focussed on the moves to hard Brexit. If, for example, the UK negotiates tariff free access to the Single Market will she call it off?
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Thanks for the piece, Alistair.0
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Your judgement is lacking. Having established that the Theresa May is not in control, the EU, and the UK, would have no interest in going over the cliff. There will be a humiliating climbdown.Richard_Nabavi said:
She's not in control. That is why Brexit will happen two years after Article 50 is invoked, possibly two years tomorrow.williamglenn said:
And do you think Brexit will be delivered on schedule? What happens in 2019 when there's no deal?Richard_Nabavi said:Anyway, what will heppen is that Mrs May will agree to the referendum, but disallow the timing. It will be after Brexit, which is the only possible way it can work. Ms Sturgeon will use this as another input to the grievance factory. Life will go on.
I'm afraid that as usual you are far too willing to trust that the Prime Minister is in control.0 -
Paging Carlotta ..... Have you fallen off your perch0
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BBC make the point that if a referendum is put forward to Westminster the legislation will need to go through the HOC and the HOL who are very much in favour of the Union and may turn down the request.
In that case I do not know how Scotland could hold a legal referendum0 -
I think timing is key. The important relationship for EU States and Germany in particular will be with the rUK, not Scotland. They won't want to mess up Brexit negotiations any more than they inevitably will be. They won't put impediments in the way of Scotland joining after Brexit and an agreed independence.Richard_Nabavi said:
Because undermining her negotiating position is not their only, or even top, priority, and, more importantly, because there are amongst the EU27 some countries and politicians who are most definitely not cool with seccessionist fantasies.williamglenn said:
And why would they do that, given that it is the most effective way to undermine May's negotiating position?Richard_Nabavi said:In any case, the people who are going to pooh-pooh her are our EU friends.
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Unfortunately, there is no mechanism for a climbdown, humiliating or otherwise.williamglenn said:Your judgement is lacking. Having established that the Theresa May is not in control, the EU, and the UK, would have no interest in going over the cliff. There will be a humiliating climbdown.
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I am not betting on hypotheticals but the point remains it would be English and Welsh Leave voters who led to Scottish independence knowing full well that was a possibility and not May who backed RemainTheScreamingEagles said:
Would you like to bet on that?HYUFD said:
May backed Remain, it was the English and Welsh electorates decision to vote Leave which led to any indyref2 so of course she would not resignTheScreamingEagles said:It is 7/1 and 8/1 that Theresa May steps down as PM in 2018 and 2019 respectively.
Massive if Scots vote for Independence.
(With Ladbrokes)
If Scotland votes to Leave the UK, Mrs May won't resign?0 -
But they could say you can have anothere referendum in circa 2035 - ie a generation after the last one!GIN1138 said:
A compromise would be to tell Scotland they can have another referendum after the negotiations when they can judge the deal Her Majesty's government comes back with.CarlottaVance said:
There has to be an 'agreement' between the two sides - expect Mrs May to be not quite as trusting as Mr Cameron.....GIN1138 said:
I think Westminster does have to grant a referendum to Scotland but they can't deny the Scots another vote if they want one - Or rather they would be well advised not to try to block a second referendum if the Scots want it.Patrick said:
Doesn't Westminster have to pass a referndum bill for there to be one? Not sure Wee Jimmy Krankie can do anything of any relvance on her own - other than UDI!AlastairMeeks said:
But they can't just tell Scotland they're not having another referendum and that's that! If they try that it'll cause an explosion of rage north of the border.0 -
It's very unlikely there'll be a single No campaign, isn't it?AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
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Depends if the apathetic vote falls evenly or not. Like Leavers and Brexit, Nats are more passionate about their cause than unionists. It may actually work in their favour. Referendum fatigue more likely mongst demoralised unionists than indignant nationalists.TGOHF said:Holding a third referendum after the two we had recently is "brave" - Nicla may seriously have underestimated how utterly sick the McPublic is of referendums.
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So when you said 'so of course she would not resign' you were all fart and no follow through.HYUFD said:
I am not betting on hypotheticals but the point remains it would be English and Welsh Leave voters who led to Scottish independence knowing full well that was a possibility and not May who backed RemainTheScreamingEagles said:
Would you like to bet on that?HYUFD said:
May backed Remain, it was the English and Welsh electorates decision to vote Leave which led to any indyref2 so of course she would not resignTheScreamingEagles said:It is 7/1 and 8/1 that Theresa May steps down as PM in 2018 and 2019 respectively.
Massive if Scots vote for Independence.
(With Ladbrokes)
If Scotland votes to Leave the UK, Mrs May won't resign?0 -
If one is wanted, one will be found.Richard_Nabavi said:
Unfortunately, there is no mechanism for a climbdown, humiliating or otherwise.williamglenn said:Your judgement is lacking. Having established that the Theresa May is not in control, the EU, and the UK, would have no interest in going over the cliff. There will be a humiliating climbdown.
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One major consequence of the commons wipe-out of SLAB (and indeed the other parties just hanging on in there) has been a culling of Scottish Big Beasts from political life.AlastairMeeks said:
There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.TheScreamingEagles said:
You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
And the collapse of SLAB in the polls, means putting forward a SLAB figure as head unionist cheerleader now carries similar disadvantages (if not quite the same level of toxicity to the decisive floating voters) to putting forward a Tory figure.0 -
Independent Scotland is a basket case economically. Germany will not tolerate another Greece which it has to bail out. Scotland is ineligible for EU membership. The SNP offer is pure snake oil.OllyT said:
True but I wouldn't rule out the EU bending rules to ease Scotland into remaining in the EU.HurstLlama said:
Have you read the requirements that have to be met before a state can join the Euro?williamglenn said:
The Euro.TGOHF said:williamglenn said:
They're not leaving.TGOHF said:I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.
What currency will Sindy use ?williamglenn said:
They're not leaving.TGOHF said:I look forward to the SNP plan for rejoining the EU - with details of their budget and currency plans.
Next question?0 -
Personally, quite heavy odds on.TheScreamingEagles said:
What odds would you make it on a referendum happening in either 2018/19?AlastairMeeks said:
There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.TheScreamingEagles said:
You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
While the Scottish government doesn't have the formal power to hold a referendum, the experience in Catalonia shows that the optics of trying to stop them holding one are just awful for the central government. And telling Scotland to wait its turn behind Brexit also sounds awful - putting Scottish interests behind those of England.
It seems to me that the Scottish government has a very good case for saying that the Sewel Convention has been ignored by Theresa May and that no meaningful consultation has taken place with the devolved assemblies/Parliaments. Is Theresa May really going to continue to try to rule the UK unilaterally from the centre?
So I expect Theresa May to give way, probably with bad grace and having squandered the goodwill that she might have been able to garner by moving swiftly.0 -
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Of course there is. It's called politics.Richard_Nabavi said:
Unfortunately, there is no mechanism for a climbdown, humiliating or otherwise.williamglenn said:Your judgement is lacking. Having established that the Theresa May is not in control, the EU, and the UK, would have no interest in going over the cliff. There will be a humiliating climbdown.
The EU are the world champions at playing brinkmanship with politicians who think they can get the impossible. However much Theresa May tries to gold-plate her bluff by denying the appearance of any escape route, the EU will not buy it.0 -
I'm happy to wait another 50 years to get one from an elected President.MarqueeMark said:
Did you get your half-telegram from the Queen?SandyRentool said:
Thank you Mr E - it is a 'big' birthday too!TheScreamingEagles said:
Happy Birthday.SandyRentool said:As a Leaver who also supports Scottish independence (as an Englander), this is shaping up to be a good day.
It is also my birthday, and I've already got my presents, so I am in a contented state.
If only Jezza would announce his resignation...0 -
Given a clear majority of Scottish exports go to England threatening a hard border with Scotland and customs duties and no currency union would actually cause some Scots to think twice, indeed Osborne's best chance of the premiership now is probably Scotland to vote Yes after Brexit May to resign and he to win the leadership effectively on a platform to screw the ScotsRochdalePioneers said:By the time we get to an independence vote we will already have a Scottish deal in the bag. The EU are going to guarantee their EEA membership with at least fast track membership to the whole thing agreed. They'll be offered a better deal that the floor scrapings we're going to be proffered. And that'll be used as pressure on the rest of the UK.
What can May threaten them with? Throwing them out of the CTA, currency and customs unions? A physical border? People will be laughing in her face.
Bravo Nicola, bravo. A brilliant political gambit. Any Jeremy obsessives reading this - that's what leadership looks like.0 -
Brexit as it is my independence. I support Sindy as a friend of Scotland.williamglenn said:
You can have one or the other. Which do you chose?Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep. I am similarly in favour of both Brexit and Sindy. A good day all round.SandyRentool said:As a Leaver who also supports Scottish independence (as an Englander), this is shaping up to be a good day.
It is also my birthday, and I've already got my presents, so I am in a contented state.
If only Jezza would announce his resignation...
But of course your question is misguided as we can have both.
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Cheers.AlastairMeeks said:
Personally, quite heavy odds on.TheScreamingEagles said:
What odds would you make it on a referendum happening in either 2018/19?AlastairMeeks said:
There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.TheScreamingEagles said:
You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
While the Scottish government doesn't have the formal power to hold a referendum, the experience in Catalonia shows that the optics of trying to stop them holding one are just awful for the central government. And telling Scotland to wait its turn behind Brexit also sounds awful - putting Scottish interests behind those of England.
It seems to me that the Scottish government has a very good case for saying that the Sewel Convention has been ignored by Theresa May and that no meaningful consultation has taken place with the devolved assemblies/Parliaments. Is Theresa May really going to continue to try to rule the UK unilaterally from the centre?
So I expect Theresa May to give way, probably with bad grace and having squandered the goodwill that she might have been able to garner by moving swiftly.0 -
Does anybody seriously think that if the UK had voted to Remain, Sturgeon and the SNP wouldn't still have been agitating for a second referendum?
It's all they've got.0 -
The bigger question is will Parliament pass the legislationAlastairMeeks said:
Personally, quite heavy odds on.TheScreamingEagles said:
What odds would you make it on a referendum happening in either 2018/19?AlastairMeeks said:
There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.TheScreamingEagles said:
You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
While the Scottish government doesn't have the formal power to hold a referendum, the experience in Catalonia shows that the optics of trying to stop them holding one are just awful for the central government. And telling Scotland to wait its turn behind Brexit also sounds awful - putting Scottish interests behind those of England.
It seems to me that the Scottish government has a very good case for saying that the Sewel Convention has been ignored by Theresa May and that no meaningful consultation has taken place with the devolved assemblies/Parliaments. Is Theresa May really going to continue to try to rule the UK unilaterally from the centre?
So I expect Theresa May to give way, probably with bad grace and having squandered the goodwill that she might have been able to garner by moving swiftly.0 -
No - May could have neutralised the entire issue by saying she would seek to retain single market membership in the EEA. For various (understandable but incorrect) reasons she chose not to, so she has brought this on herself.HYUFD said:
It was the English and Welsh voters who voted Leave who would have lost Scotland, not May who voted Remain. However as said last night May is Elizabeth 1st to Sturgeon's Mary Queen of ScotsSouthamObserver said:
To be fair, Corbyn will be getting what he wants, too, if the UK breaks-up. But you are right, Sturgeon has played a blinder on this. What will May throw at the Scots to keep them on board? Being the Conservative and Unionist PM who lost the Union would be quite something on her CV.RochdalePioneers said:By the time we get to an independence vote we will already have a Scottish deal in the bag. The EU are going to guarantee their EEA membership with at least fast track membership to the whole thing agreed. They'll be offered a better deal that the floor scrapings we're going to be proffered. And that'll be used as pressure on the rest of the UK.
What can May threaten them with? Throwing them out of the CTA, currency and customs unions? A physical border? People will be laughing in her face.
Bravo Nicola, bravo. A brilliant political gambit. Any Jeremy obsessives reading this - that's what leadership looks like.0 -
There needs to be legislation concerning the conduct of referendums generally. The current ad hoc approach is a recipe for chaos which is great if you are a constitutional lawyer* but a pain in the arse for everyone else.justin124 said:
But they could say you can have anothere referendum in circa 2035 - ie a generation after the last one!GIN1138 said:
A compromise would be to tell Scotland they can have another referendum after the negotiations when they can judge the deal Her Majesty's government comes back with.CarlottaVance said:
There has to be an 'agreement' between the two sides - expect Mrs May to be not quite as trusting as Mr Cameron.....GIN1138 said:
I think Westminster does have to grant a referendum to Scotland but they can't deny the Scots another vote if they want one - Or rather they would be well advised not to try to block a second referendum if the Scots want it.Patrick said:
Doesn't Westminster have to pass a referndum bill for there to be one? Not sure Wee Jimmy Krankie can do anything of any relvance on her own - other than UDI!AlastairMeeks said:
But they can't just tell Scotland they're not having another referendum and that's that! If they try that it'll cause an explosion of rage north of the border.
And one of the provisions in a referendum act should be a bar on holding a second vote on substantially the question within a specified period of time. 25 years would be about right.
*Edit: I should have added, "or political punter"0 -
What price a non-politico - JK Rowling?AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
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Nor will Tory Leave voterswilliamglenn said:
Of course there is. It's called politics.Richard_Nabavi said:
Unfortunately, there is no mechanism for a climbdown, humiliating or otherwise.williamglenn said:Your judgement is lacking. Having established that the Theresa May is not in control, the EU, and the UK, would have no interest in going over the cliff. There will be a humiliating climbdown.
The EU are the world champions at playing brinkmanship with politicians who think they can get the impossible. However much Theresa May tries to gold-plate her bluff by denying the appearance of any escape route, the EU will not buy it.0 -
Your girl did good Malc. Enjoymalcolmg said:
Yaba daba doo GIN, we are off and runningGIN1138 said:
That was always going to be the outcome. It's like unpicking the fabric of a country thread by thread until eventually the entire thing just falls apart.glw said:
Devolution has had precisely the opposite effect that Labour thought it would.GIN1138 said:I think there's a lot in what you say. I've always felt Scotland leaving the UK was inevitable since Labour brought in devolution.
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I don't think so, because it would require unanimity. Alastair's metaphor of the barrel going over the falls is right, I think. For that matter, so it should be - we have had the referendum, it has been decided we're leaving.SouthamObserver said:If one is wanted, one will be found.
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Er, isn't she English?Lennon said:
What price a non-politico - JK Rowling?AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
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GIN1138 said:
Your girl did good Malc. Enjoymalcolmg said:
Yaba daba doo GIN, we are off and runningGIN1138 said:
That was always going to be the outcome. It's like unpicking the fabric of a country thread by thread until eventually the entire thing just falls apart.glw said:
Devolution has had precisely the opposite effect that Labour thought it would.GIN1138 said:I think there's a lot in what you say. I've always felt Scotland leaving the UK was inevitable since Labour brought in devolution.
Turnip wine tonight!0 -
Actually she would be a fantastic choice for multiple reasons, if she could be persuaded to do it. I can't for the life of me think of a reason why she would want to put herself through that hell.Lennon said:
What price a non-politico - JK Rowling?AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
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The weird thing is that tariff free access makes Scottish independence slightly more viable because it would ensure as members of the EU we had access to the rUK market. Anything less and leaving our single market with rUK is really inconceivable.Richard_Nabavi said:
LOL! I think that's what's known as a rhetorical question!DavidL said:Also her speech was very much focussed on the moves to hard Brexit. If, for example, the UK negotiates tariff free access to the Single Market will she call it off?
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I did not expect Cameron to resign either so am not betting on May resigning but of course it was Cameron who promised the Brexit referendum in the first placeTheScreamingEagles said:
So when you said 'so of course she would not resign' you were all fart and no follow through.HYUFD said:
I am not betting on hypotheticals but the point remains it would be English and Welsh Leave voters who led to Scottish independence knowing full well that was a possibility and not May who backed RemainTheScreamingEagles said:
Would you like to bet on that?HYUFD said:
May backed Remain, it was the English and Welsh electorates decision to vote Leave which led to any indyref2 so of course she would not resignTheScreamingEagles said:It is 7/1 and 8/1 that Theresa May steps down as PM in 2018 and 2019 respectively.
Massive if Scots vote for Independence.
(With Ladbrokes)
If Scotland votes to Leave the UK, Mrs May won't resign?0 -
The major winners of that of course would be UKIP!williamglenn said:
Your judgement is lacking. Having established that the Theresa May is not in control, the EU, and the UK, would have no interest in going over the cliff. There will be a humiliating climbdown.Richard_Nabavi said:
She's not in control. That is why Brexit will happen two years after Article 50 is invoked, possibly two years tomorrow.williamglenn said:
And do you think Brexit will be delivered on schedule? What happens in 2019 when there's no deal?Richard_Nabavi said:Anyway, what will heppen is that Mrs May will agree to the referendum, but disallow the timing. It will be after Brexit, which is the only possible way it can work. Ms Sturgeon will use this as another input to the grievance factory. Life will go on.
I'm afraid that as usual you are far too willing to trust that the Prime Minister is in control.0 -
But Labour will go to great lengths to remind them!Mortimer said:
Rubbish. Huge numbers of voters by 2020 won't remember.justin124 said:
I think you underestimate the toxicity of LibDems to left of centre voters. It will take a generation before they will be forgiven for their role as 'the Tories little helpers'.SouthamObserver said:
With a strong leader, I suspect that the LDs would already be closer to 20% than 10%. Farron just does not inspire. If Corbyn is in charge in 2020, they will probably get my vote (if anyone does), but it's easy for me - I live in a seat that the Tories are going to hold come what may.surbiton said:
I think you are under estimating what the Liberals can do, if Corbyn stays in situ. 10% could easily become 20% in no time. Mostly, from Labour but a few from the Tories too.SouthamObserver said:
Like Labour, the LibDems have a leader problem. Unlike Corbyn, Farron is not hopelessly out of touch, does not hold views that are anathema to 80% of the population and is not utterly useless at leading, but he does not have a persona that commands attention. With millions and millions of voters looking on in bemusement at what is currently happening in and to the UK looking for someone to articulate their frustration, the opportunity is huge. It's tailor-made for someone like Charlie Kennedy or a pre-coalition Clegg, but the LibDems do not have that god dust anymore, it seems.OldKingCole said:
For all the hype? As far as I can see the LibDems have received very little.They get very little Press coverage and their Leader is regularly rubbished, both here and in the right-wing Press.Danny565 said:
For all the hype, the Lib Dems really haven't made much progress in the polls at all. They've barely crawled up a few points since the EU referendum, and, worse, any progress they've made seems to have completely stalled since the New Year (after they got a bit of a lift following Richmond Park). They're only a bit ahead of where they were at this point in the disastrous 2010-15 parliament.RobD said:Second!
It is interesting that both UKIP and the Lib Dems haven't really moved much in the polls.
Of course, the picture of the polls is completely contradicted by the local council byelections week after week, so goodness knows what's really going on with them.0 -
In another 50 years, Charles might just have got to take over...SandyRentool said:
I'm happy to wait another 50 years to get one from an elected President.MarqueeMark said:
Did you get your half-telegram from the Queen?SandyRentool said:
Thank you Mr E - it is a 'big' birthday too!TheScreamingEagles said:
Happy Birthday.SandyRentool said:As a Leaver who also supports Scottish independence (as an Englander), this is shaping up to be a good day.
It is also my birthday, and I've already got my presents, so I am in a contented state.
If only Jezza would announce his resignation...0 -
preciselyMarqueeMark said:Does anybody seriously think that if the UK had voted to Remain, Sturgeon and the SNP wouldn't still have been agitating for a second referendum?
It's all they've got.0 -
It was inevitable, the only thing that would stop such calls is the SNP losing power.MarqueeMark said:Does anybody seriously think that if the UK had voted to Remain, Sturgeon and the SNP wouldn't still have been agitating for a second referendum?
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For the Twitter-spats? They'd be top drawer....AlastairMeeks said:
Actually she would be a fantastic choice for multiple reasons, if she could be persuaded to do it. I can't for the life of me think of a reason why she would want to put herself through that hell.Lennon said:
What price a non-politico - JK Rowling?AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
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She'd be perfect - a good Gloucestershire girl telling the Scots what's in their best interests.Lennon said:
What price a non-politico - JK Rowling?AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
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Of course Mrs May could consult on a referendum until say next year and then call a 3 year campaign like last time
2021 could make an interesting Indyref20 -
England is economically far more imporatant to the EU than Scotland . the EU will always take that into account when dealing with Scotland. Self interest always kicks inSouthamObserver said:
Not openly.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The EU will not negotiate with Scotland until the UK have leftRochdalePioneers said:By the time we get to an independence vote we will already have a Scottish deal in the bag. The EU are going to guarantee their EEA membership with at least fast track membership to the whole thing agreed. They'll be offered a better deal that the floor scrapings we're going to be proffered. And that'll be used as pressure on the rest of the UK.
What can May threaten them with? Throwing them out of the CTA, currency and customs unions? A physical border? People will be laughing in her face.
Bravo Nicola, bravo. A brilliant political gambit. Any Jeremy obsessives reading this - that's what leadership looks like.0 -
@PipsFunFacts: Tim Farron to declare AVRef Round 2 in 5, 4, 3, 2...0
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No. The idea May could have introduced no new immigration controls after the Leave vote is absurd, half her party would have switched to UKIP. If Scotland votes Yes there is only one group to blame, the Leave campaign in EU ref and those in England and Wales who voted Leave, they may still see leaving the EU as more important than preserving the Union but the blame still falls on themParistonda said:
No - May could have neutralised the entire issue by saying she would seek to retain single market membership in the EEA. For various (understandable but incorrect) reasons she chose not to, so she has brought this on herself.HYUFD said:
It was the English and Welsh voters who voted Leave who would have lost Scotland, not May who voted Remain. However as said last night May is Elizabeth 1st to Sturgeon's Mary Queen of ScotsSouthamObserver said:
To be fair, Corbyn will be getting what he wants, too, if the UK breaks-up. But you are right, Sturgeon has played a blinder on this. What will May throw at the Scots to keep them on board? Being the Conservative and Unionist PM who lost the Union would be quite something on her CV.RochdalePioneers said:By the time we get to an independence vote we will already have a Scottish deal in the bag. The EU are going to guarantee their EEA membership with at least fast track membership to the whole thing agreed. They'll be offered a better deal that the floor scrapings we're going to be proffered. And that'll be used as pressure on the rest of the UK.
What can May threaten them with? Throwing them out of the CTA, currency and customs unions? A physical border? People will be laughing in her face.
Bravo Nicola, bravo. A brilliant political gambit. Any Jeremy obsessives reading this - that's what leadership looks like.0 -
She should keep her powder dry for the Labour Leadership.Lennon said:
What price a non-politico - JK Rowling?AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
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Our ownPB @Charles?MarqueeMark said:
In another 50 years, Charles might just have got to take over...SandyRentool said:
I'm happy to wait another 50 years to get one from an elected President.MarqueeMark said:
Did you get your half-telegram from the Queen?SandyRentool said:
Thank you Mr E - it is a 'big' birthday too!TheScreamingEagles said:
Happy Birthday.SandyRentool said:As a Leaver who also supports Scottish independence (as an Englander), this is shaping up to be a good day.
It is also my birthday, and I've already got my presents, so I am in a contented state.
If only Jezza would announce his resignation...
Actually I think he'd do a great job!0 -
Happy Birthday!SandyRentool said:As a Leaver who also supports Scottish independence (as an Englander), this is shaping up to be a good day.
It is also my birthday, and I've already got my presents, so I am in a contented state.
If only Jezza would announce his resignation...
0 -
Indeed. - The SNP protested at being dragged into the EU by England, they’re protesting now at England dragging them out, it really makes no odds, a second, third and even fourth Indyref was always going to be on the cards.Alanbrooke said:
preciselyMarqueeMark said:Does anybody seriously think that if the UK had voted to Remain, Sturgeon and the SNP wouldn't still have been agitating for a second referendum?
It's all they've got.0 -
LOLHYUFD said:
No. The idea May could have introduced no new immigration controls after the Leave vote is absurd, half her party would have switched to UKIP. If Scotland votes Yes there is only one group to blame, the Leave campaign in EU ref and those in England and Wales who voted Leave, they may still see leaving the EU as more important than preserving the Union but the blame still falls on themParistonda said:
No - May could have neutralised the entire issue by saying she would seek to retain single market membership in the EEA. For various (understandable but incorrect) reasons she chose not to, so she has brought this on herself.HYUFD said:
It was the English and Welsh voters who voted Leave who would have lost Scotland, not May who voted Remain. However as said last night May is Elizabeth 1st to Sturgeon's Mary Queen of ScotsSouthamObserver said:
To be fair, Corbyn will be getting what he wants, too, if the UK breaks-up. But you are right, Sturgeon has played a blinder on this. What will May throw at the Scots to keep them on board? Being the Conservative and Unionist PM who lost the Union would be quite something on her CV.RochdalePioneers said:By the time we get to an independence vote we will already have a Scottish deal in the bag. The EU are going to guarantee their EEA membership with at least fast track membership to the whole thing agreed. They'll be offered a better deal that the floor scrapings we're going to be proffered. And that'll be used as pressure on the rest of the UK.
What can May threaten them with? Throwing them out of the CTA, currency and customs unions? A physical border? People will be laughing in her face.
Bravo Nicola, bravo. A brilliant political gambit. Any Jeremy obsessives reading this - that's what leadership looks like.
you dont think the SNP has anything to do with it then ?0 -
Of course they would have agitated for a referendum but they would have had no justification for one and in the mean time attention would have focussed on their mismanagement at Holyrood. A few years of that would have damaged the Independence cause.MarqueeMark said:Does anybody seriously think that if the UK had voted to Remain, Sturgeon and the SNP wouldn't still have been agitating for a second referendum?
It's all they've got.
Anyway, the little England Brexiteers will be happy.0 -
Yes a Tory leading will be a big help toYes for sureMyBurningEars said:
One major consequence of the commons wipe-out of SLAB (and indeed the other parties just hanging on in there) has been a culling of Scottish Big Beasts from political life.AlastairMeeks said:
There's only so much kickboxing one girl can do.TheScreamingEagles said:
You've just broken the heart of every Scottish Tory surger there by not acknowledging Ruth Davidson's awesomeness.AlastairMeeks said:If there is another referendum in Scotland, who's going to lead the No campaign? The current crop of unionist politicians is not exactly stellar, is it?
And the collapse of SLAB in the polls, means putting forward a SLAB figure as head unionist cheerleader now carries similar disadvantages (if not quite the same level of toxicity to the decisive floating voters) to putting forward a Tory figure.0 -
That's not quite a no.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
"Soft Brexit" would means minimal trade barriers with either England or the EU, so what option Scots chose in a referendum would not make much difference. "Hard brexit" would mean significant trade barriers with either 70% of current Scottish trade (that within the rest of the UK) or circa 15% (that to the rest of the EU). In that context I am genuinely puzzled as to why hard Brexit is seen as a selling point for Scottish secession from the UK. In the course of another referendum I think the penny would gradually drop and Scots would come to be much more fearful of the impact on trade of their border with England, just as the Northern Irish are rightly fearful of the impact of a hard Brexit on trade across their border with Ireland.DavidL said:
Yes, they are now more significant. Even Labour might get something of a boost. I genuinely do not feel that there is any enthusiasm for a second referendum in Scotland right now and the polling supports that. Have the SNP overplayed their hand?TGOHF said:Suspect the Conservative campaign for the May local elections in Scotland just received a significant boost.
Also her speech was very much focussed on the moves to hard Brexit. If, for example, the UK negotiates tariff free access to the Single Market will she call it off?
In Northern Ireland that's being used as an argument for unification, one that seems to have some resonance beyond sectarian boundaries. In Scotland much the same scenario is being used as an argument for ending unification.
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