politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : February 9th 2017

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Pulpstar said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Apple 'optimistic' about post Brexit UK
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920860

bastards

dont they read William Glenn ?

Clearly one of the world's most successful companies has not got the Glenn memo!

meanwhile as Greece burns , the Germans have a party

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38918804

Germany still holds most of the cards, yes

hmmm

I must say, as someone who is a genuine germanophile, this really is Germany at its worst.

They knew the Greeks should never have gone in to the Euro, but contrived to turn a blind eye

Now when its all gone tits up they have run from their repsonsibility to help them out of a mess they helped create and are piling endless misery on a helpless people

Appalling

Thats what a real economy looks like, not one based on people lashing up their credit cards in nail bars.

Bloody Germans,
combining a high wage, manufacturing economy with liberal democracy. Breaks all the rules of the protectionist nationalists.

Yes. All it took was impoverishing Southern Europe and locking in a 40% undervaluation in their currency. Dick.

Serial devaluation and inflation solves no problems, as we will shortly find out.

Are you thick or just being obtuse on purpose? Since you're a doctor I'm hoping it isn't the former.

serial devaluation has never been a marker of economic succes. There is no short cut to virtue.

That certainly has been the German mantra since the Second World War. Hard Mark/Euro. If you find it difficult to compete you reduce your costs or improve your product. They have been quite successful.

Mortimer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Well this BBC2 programme is making it seem like the EU is sinking ship.

Absolutely. The fall of the wall seems to have been a disaster for Western Europe.

1989 is the seminal year of our lives, it was the year everything changed and all the certainties of previous decades were tossed into the air

it destroyed communism
released globalisation
reshaped global priorities

Western Europe still hasnt come to terms with its consequences

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Beverley_C said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Beverley_C said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Are we all watching bbc2 take on the rise of popularism across the EU?

No. I am watching YouTube on replacing standing rigging and the advantages of hi-mod fittings over rod-rigging

Hello sailor!

Aaaharrr me hearties! Shiver me timbers!!

From your avatar, hopefully you haven't gone and joined those EU luvvies in Sinn Fein!

Looks like a Galway Hooker to me.

The German comedy they showed living up to stereotype....

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Apple 'optimistic' about post Brexit UK
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920860

bastards

dont they read William Glenn ?

Clearly one of the world's most successful companies has not got the Glenn memo!

meanwhile as Greece burns , the Germans have a party

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38918804

Germany still holds most of the cards, yes

hmmm

I must say, as someone who is a genuine germanophile, this really is Germany at its worst.

They knew the Greeks should never have gone in to the Euro, but contrived to turn a blind eye

Now when its all gone tits up they have run from their repsonsibility to help them out of a mess they helped create and are piling endless misery on a helpless people

Appalling

The Greeks did not have to join the Euro

of course not, and the rest of Europe didnt have to let them

Perhaps but it was the Greeks who took the risk

Nah both sides made it happen

Europe bent the rules to let them in, they are complicit in the mess

Yes but it is the Greeks who will feel the most pain if they have to get out

theyre screwed

but the germans havent the moral platform to realise they should man up and help sort out the mess

If the Greeks get back on with the task of tackling their deficit they may

their debts at 180% of GDP are beyond manageable, they need debt relief but the germans wont budge even though they know they have zero chance of getting all their money back

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Apple 'optimistic' about post Brexit UK
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920860

bastards

dont they read William Glenn ?

Clearly one of the world's most successful companies has not got the Glenn memo!

meanwhile as Greece burns , the Germans have a party

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38918804

Germany still holds most of the cards, yes

hmmm

I must say, as someone who is a genuine germanophile, this really is Germany at its worst.

They knew the Greeks should never have gone in to the Euro, but contrived to turn a blind eye

Now when its all gone tits up they have run from their repsonsibility to help them out of a mess they helped create and are piling endless misery on a helpless people

Appalling

The Greeks did not have to join the Euro

of course not, and the rest of Europe didnt have to let them

Perhaps but it was the Greeks who took the risk

Nah both sides made it happen

Europe bent the rules to let them in, they are complicit in the mess

Yes but it is the Greeks who will feel the most pain if they have to get out

theyre screwed

but the germans havent the moral platform to realise they should man up and help sort out the mess

If the Greeks get back on with the task of tackling their deficit they may

their debts at 180% of GDP are beyond manageable, they need debt relief but the germans wont budge even though they know they have zero chance of getting all their money back

Germany has given rescue packages to Greece before, it will only get another one if it sticks to its austerity measures

kle4 said:

Charles said:

kle4 said:

Charles said:

rottenborough said:

maaarsh said:

MarkSenior said:

kle4 said:

MarkSenior said:

Although disqualified for non attendance , the Ratepayer in Fylde will be re elected easily . The Conservative plot to remove him will backfire on them badly .

Are the plot and the disqualification separate things? Because if they didn't attend, it doesn't take a plot to mean a by-election must occur due to disqualification, surely, unless there was a good reason for the absence and the council refused to authorise it?

He has severe agoraphobia . The council is allowed to waive the 6 month rule in circumstances they feel justified but apparently the Conservatives insisted on it .

Why on earth does he want to win a position he is entirely unable to fulfill?

See: http://www.blackpoolgazette.co.uk/news/councillor-loses-seat-over-illness-1-8190655

An interesting and sad case. Agoraphobia is a terrible illness, and it seems this chap felt he was able to do a reasonable job using phone and IT.

I note from the article that the council can only make a dispensation of he asks for it and the gentleman in question did not

Well if that is the case then it would seem there was indeed no plot and thus no blame to attach.

@MarkSenior always sees a plot when the Tories are concerned.

Merely being a Tory* is itself a plot against decent folk, I have no doubt. The word meant brigand or outlaw in the mid 1600s, and it still does now!

*I am happy to substitute left wing for Tory for the sake of balance.

How can you be sure it wasn't a filthy neutral plot?

Razedabode said:

Blimey, this bbc brexit program is pretty gloomy about the EU.

Not sure ever seen the bbc show something so negative about the EU project. This programme made it seem like the most unhappy family where the head of the family ain't listening to anything the rest say.

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Apple 'optimistic' about post Brexit UK
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920860

bastards

dont they read William Glenn ?

Clearly one of the world's most successful companies has not got the Glenn memo!

meanwhile as Greece burns , the Germans have a party

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38918804

Germany still holds most of the cards, yes

hmmm

I must say, as someone who is a genuine germanophile, this really is Germany at its worst.

They knew the Greeks should never have gone in to the Euro, but contrived to turn a blind eye

Now when its all gone tits up they have run from their repsonsibility to help them out of a mess they helped create and are piling endless misery on a helpless people

Appalling

The Greeks did not have to join the Euro

of course not, and the rest of Europe didnt have to let them

Perhaps but it was the Greeks who took the risk

Nah both sides made it happen

Europe bent the rules to let them in, they are complicit in the mess

Yes but it is the Greeks who will feel the most pain if they have to get out

theyre screwed

but the germans havent the moral platform to realise they should man up and help sort out the mess

If the Greeks get back on with the task of tackling their deficit they may

their debts at 180% of GDP are beyond manageable, they need debt relief but the germans wont budge even though they know they have zero chance of getting all their money back

Germany has given rescue packages to Greece before, it will only get another one if it sticks to its austerity measures

Rescue packages that have not written off the debt...

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/829812108414111749

Sean_F said:

FF43 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Pulpstar said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Apple 'optimistic' about post Brexit UK
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920860

bastards

dont they read William Glenn ?

Clearly one of the world's most successful companies has not got the Glenn memo!

meanwhile as Greece burns , the Germans have a party

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38918804

Germany still holds most of the cards, yes

hmmm

I must say, as someone who is a genuine germanophile, this really is Germany at its worst.

They knew the Greeks should never have gone in to the Euro, but contrived to turn a blind eye

Now when its all gone tits up they have run from their repsonsibility to help them out of a mess they helped create and are piling endless misery on a helpless people

Appalling

Thats what a real economy looks like, not one based on people lashing up their credit cards in nail bars.

Bloody Germans,
combining a high wage, manufacturing economy with liberal democracy. Breaks all the rules of the protectionist nationalists.

Yes. All it took was impoverishing Southern Europe and locking in a 40% undervaluation in their currency. Dick.

Serial devaluation and inflation solves no problems, as we will shortly find out.

Are you thick or just being obtuse on purpose? Since you're a doctor I'm hoping it isn't the former.

serial devaluation has never been a marker of economic succes. There is no short cut to virtue.

That certainly has been the German mantra since the Second World War. Hard Mark/Euro. If you find it difficult to compete you reduce your costs or improve your product. They have been quite successful.

That's true. But, if everyone behaved like Germany, no one would prosper.

Thats what my Dad told me.

Mortimer said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Apple 'optimistic' about post Brexit UK
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920860

bastards

dont they read William Glenn ?

Clearly one of the world's most successful companies has not got the Glenn memo!

meanwhile as Greece burns , the Germans have a party

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38918804

Germany still holds most of the cards, yes

hmmm

I must say, as someone who is a genuine germanophile, this really is Germany at its worst.

They knew the Greeks should never have gone in to the Euro, but contrived to turn a blind eye

Now when its all gone tits up they have run from their repsonsibility to help them out of a mess they helped create and are piling endless misery on a helpless people

Appalling

The Greeks did not have to join the Euro

of course not, and the rest of Europe didnt have to let them

Perhaps but it was the Greeks who took the risk

Nah both sides made it happen

Europe bent the rules to let them in, they are complicit in the mess

Yes but it is the Greeks who will feel the most pain if they have to get out

theyre screwed

but the germans havent the moral platform to realise they should man up and help sort out the mess

If the Greeks get back on with the task of tackling their deficit they may

their debts at 180% of GDP are beyond manageable, they need debt relief but the germans wont budge even though they know they have zero chance of getting all their money back

Germany has given rescue packages to Greece before, it will only get another one if it sticks to its austerity measures

Rescue packages that have not written off the debt...

German voters are certainly not going to allow Merkel to write off the debt at the moment which they would then be paying for

chestnut said:

Devaluation only happens in a fixed exchange rate system. Floating currencies 'depreciate'.

Actually, the word "devaluation" refers to the reduction of one currency measured in another. It can be used for both fixed and floating exchange rates. Although I accept "depreciate" is a better word.

Aargh, my pedantry gene...

chestnut said:

Sterling was $1.05 to the £ in 1985...

Yes it was (altho' wasn't it 1.08?). But it should be pointed out that the $1.05/8 only lasted for a very short time, whereas the current malaise of GDP/USD has already gone on for some months now and isn't likely to improve between now and Article 50 in March

chestnut said:

...and far closer to parity with the € in 2008/2009 than it is now.

Fair point, and although it should be said that GBP/EUR was around 1.4/1,5 for about 7 years before 2008, it has since then fluctuated greatly, and it's current 1.15 or thereabouts is awkward but not painful

But this just serves to highlight the extremity of GBP/USD: it hasn't been this low this long ever. It's closer to the 60's devaluation in terms of lasting effect than the ERM.

Sean_F said:

FF43 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Pulpstar said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Apple 'optimistic' about post Brexit UK
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920860

bastards

dont they read William Glenn ?

Clearly one of the world's most successful companies has not got the Glenn memo!

meanwhile as Greece burns , the Germans have a party

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38918804

Germany still holds most of the cards, yes

hmmm

I must say, as someone who is a genuine germanophile, this really is Germany at its worst.

They knew the Greeks should never have gone in to the Euro, but contrived to turn a blind eye

Now when its all gone tits up they have run from their repsonsibility to help them out of a mess they helped create and are piling endless misery on a helpless people

Appalling

Thats what a real economy looks like, not one based on people lashing up their credit cards in nail bars.

Bloody Germans,
combining a high wage, manufacturing economy with liberal democracy. Breaks all the rules of the protectionist nationalists.

Yes. All it took was impoverishing Southern Europe and locking in a 40% undervaluation in their currency. Dick.

Serial devaluation and inflation solves no problems, as we will shortly find out.

Are you thick or just being obtuse on purpose? Since you're a doctor I'm hoping it isn't the former.

serial devaluation has never been a marker of economic succes. There is no short cut to virtue.

That certainly has been the German mantra since the Second World War. Hard Mark/Euro. If you find it difficult to compete you reduce your costs or improve your product. They have been quite successful.

That's true. But, if everyone behaved like Germany, no one would prosper.

A strange thing for a conservative to say.

Alanbrooke said:

their debts at 180% of GDP are beyond manageable, they need debt relief but the germans wont budge even though they know they have zero chance of getting all their money back

That's true, but they are not paying interest at the rate implied by that 180%. There's a lot of pretence going on: that the money owed will ever be paid and that the Greeks could, if they defaulted, get loans at rates anything like the current terms with the Eurozone countries

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

FF43 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Pulpstar said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Apple 'optimistic' about post Brexit UK
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920860

bastards

dont they read William Glenn ?

Clearly one of the world's most successful companies has not got the Glenn memo!

meanwhile as Greece burns , the Germans have a party

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38918804

Germany still holds most of the cards, yes

hmmm

I must say, as someone who is a genuine germanophile, this really is Germany at its worst.

They knew the Greeks should never have gone in to the Euro, but contrived to turn a blind eye

Now when its all gone tits up they have run from their repsonsibility to help them out of a mess they helped create and are piling endless misery on a helpless people

Appalling

Thats what a real economy looks like, not one based on people lashing up their credit cards in nail bars.

Bloody Germans,
combining a high wage, manufacturing economy with liberal democracy. Breaks all the rules of the protectionist nationalists.

Yes. All it took was impoverishing Southern Europe and locking in a 40% undervaluation in their currency. Dick.

Serial devaluation and inflation solves no problems, as we will shortly find out.

Are you thick or just being obtuse on purpose? Since you're a doctor I'm hoping it isn't the former.

serial devaluation has never been a marker of economic succes. There is no short cut to virtue.

That certainly has been the German mantra since the Second World War. Hard Mark/Euro. If you find it difficult to compete you reduce your costs or improve your product. They have been quite successful.

That's true. But, if everyone behaved like Germany, no one would prosper.

A strange thing for a conservative to say.

Its true though. The paradox of thrift.

However on an individual level its better to be thrifty than profligate.

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

FF43 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Pulpstar said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Apple 'optimistic' about post Brexit UK
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920860

bastards

dont they read William Glenn ?

Clearly one of the world's most successful companies has not got the Glenn memo!

meanwhile as Greece burns , the Germans have a party

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38918804

Germany still holds most of the cards, yes

hmmm

I must say, as someone who is a genuine germanophile, this really is Germany at its worst.

They knew the Greeks should never have gone in to the Euro, but contrived to turn a blind eye

Now when its all gone tits up they have run from their repsonsibility to help them out of a mess they helped create and are piling endless misery on a helpless people

Appalling

Thats what a real economy looks like, not one based on people lashing up their credit cards in nail bars.

Bloody Germans,
combining a high wage, manufacturing economy with liberal democracy. Breaks all the rules of the protectionist nationalists.

Yes. All it took was impoverishing Southern Europe and locking in a 40% undervaluation in their currency. Dick.

Serial devaluation and inflation solves no problems, as we will shortly find out.

Are you thick or just being obtuse on purpose? Since you're a doctor I'm hoping it isn't the former.

serial devaluation has never been a marker of economic succes. There is no short cut to virtue.

That certainly has been the German mantra since the Second World War. Hard Mark/Euro. If you find it difficult to compete you reduce your costs or improve your product. They have been quite successful.

That's true. But, if everyone behaved like Germany, no one would prosper.

A strange thing for a conservative to say.

A silly thing for anyone to say.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Razedabode said:

Blimey, this bbc brexit program is pretty gloomy about the EU.

Not sure ever seen the bbc show something so negative about the EU project. This programme made it seem like the most unhappy family where the head of the family ain't listening to anything the rest say.

I thought the most revealing part of the program was the German bloke saying how wonderful the EU and the euro had been for Germany. What a shame its been at the expense of southern Eurooe.

And a floor 5 and a half at the EU offices? Eh?

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Pulpstar said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Apple 'optimistic' about post Brexit UK
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920860

bastards

dont they read William Glenn ?

Clearly one of the world's most successful companies has not got the Glenn memo!

meanwhile as Greece burns , the Germans have a party

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38918804

Germany still holds most of the cards, yes

hmmm

I must say, as someone who is a genuine germanophile, this really is Germany at its worst.

They knew the Greeks should never have gone in to the Euro, but contrived to turn a blind eye

Now when its all gone tits up they have run from their repsonsibility to help them out of a mess they helped create and are piling endless misery on a helpless people

Appalling

Thats what a real economy looks like, not one based on people lashing up their credit cards in nail bars.

Bloody Germans,
combining a high wage, manufacturing economy with liberal democracy. Breaks all the rules of the protectionist nationalists.

Yes. All it took was impoverishing Southern Europe and locking in a 40% undervaluation in their currency. Dick.

Serial devaluation and inflation solves no problems, as we will shortly find out.

Are you thick or just being obtuse on purpose? Since you're a doctor I'm hoping it isn't the former.

serial devaluation has never been a marker of economic succes. There is no short cut to virtue.

I'm rapidly changing my mind to the former option, I weep for the NHS if this is the standard of intelligence in our medical staff.

Serial devaluation and inflation was how Britain tried to adjust in the sixties and seventies. How did that go?

Mrs Thatcher squeezed out inflation, in part by high interest rates pushing up the value of Sterling. Tough on many parts of Britain certainly, and I agree that tbere is anargument that the benefit was not worth the cost, but not totally dissimar to what is going on in Europe now.

Pulpstar said:

What I want to know is, if the Euro is undervalued - what on earth does that make the pound.

@ Inception

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/events/the_launch_of_emu/euro_latest/245679.stm

£ / Eur 1.4175
EUR / USD 1.16675

Now we're at £ / Eur 1.1727
& Eur / USD 1.0748

So the Euro has dropped 7.9% relative to the USD - which is annoying Trump and his team.

But ! We've dropped 17.3% relative to the Euro, and 35% relative to the USD.

What reassures me is the massive trade surplus that we'll get due to our superior exporting power whilst our currency is temporarily under the pump

The ECB, BOE, and BOJ are all trying to devalue their currencies at the moment, and Trump is trying to talk down the USD. Given the perpetual anti-German stance of PB, the ECB is singled out for criticism but the other three...not so much.

MaxPB said:

I'm rapidly changing my mind to the former option, I weep for the NHS if this is the standard of intelligence in our medical staff.

How about engaging on the arguments, instead of gratuitously insulting other commentators? You're not coming across as particularly intelligent yourself. I'm sure you could be, if you tried.

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

I'm rapidly changing my mind to the former option, I weep for the NHS if this is the standard of intelligence in our medical staff.

How about engaging on the arguments, instead of gratuitously insulting other commentators? You're not coming across as particularly intelligent yourself. I'm sure you could be, if you tried.

Max is a teenage scribbler. He has no memory of how inflation wrecks countries.

Hmm our credit outlook is "negative" with all the major rating agencies...

MaxPB said:

Pulpstar said:

What I want to know is, if the Euro is undervalued - what on earth does that make the pound.

@ Inception

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/events/the_launch_of_emu/euro_latest/245679.stm

£ / Eur 1.4175
EUR / USD 1.16675

Now we're at £ / Eur 1.1727
& Eur / USD 1.0748

So the Euro has dropped 7.9% relative to the USD - which is annoying Trump and his team.

But ! We've dropped 17.3% relative to the Euro, and 35% relative to the USD.

What reassures me is the massive trade surplus that we'll get due to our superior exporting power whilst our currency is temporarily under the pump

The IMF say the DM would be valued at $1.70, which compares to $1.07 or there abouts. It is currency manipulation by any other name.

I remember it used to be about 2.5-3 DMs to the pound.

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

That's true. But, if everyone behaved like Germany, no one would prosper.

A strange thing for a conservative to say.

If I understand correctly, conservatives in the UK currently believe in a weak currency, increased government spending, a credit boom, increasing taxes, leaving free markets, and reducing debts by stoking inflation to inflate it away.

If you want to attach a generator to Thatcher's spinning body, I reckon we could generate a couple of megawatts.

Pulpstar said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

FF43 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Pulpstar said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Apple 'optimistic' about post Brexit UK
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920860

bastards

dont they read William Glenn ?

Clearly one of the world's most successful companies has not got the Glenn memo!

meanwhile as Greece burns , the Germans have a party

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38918804

Germany still holds most of the cards, yes

hmmm

I must say, as someone who is a genuine germanophile, this really is Germany at its worst.

They knew the Greeks should never have gone in to the Euro, but contrived to turn a blind eye

Now when its all gone tits up they have run from their repsonsibility to help them out of a mess they helped create and are piling endless misery on a helpless people

Appalling

Thats what a real economy looks like, not one based on people lashing up their credit cards in nail bars.

Bloody

Yes. All it took was impoverishing Southern Europe and locking in a 40% undervaluation in their currency. Dick.

Serial devaluation and inflation solves no problems, as we will shortly find out.

Are you thick or just being obtuse on purpose? Since you're a doctor I'm hoping it isn't the former.

serial devaluation has never been a marker of economic succes. There is no short cut to virtue.

That certainly has been the German mantra since the Second World War. Hard Mark/Euro. If you find it difficult to compete you reduce your costs or improve your product. They have been quite successful.

That's true. But, if everyone behaved like Germany, no one would prosper.

A strange thing for a conservative to say.

Its true though. The paradox of thrift.

However on an individual level its better to be thrifty than profligate.

Whenever our economy starts to look like it's doing pretty well we all spend and borrow money like it's going out of fashion. Always.

That goes for both HMG and individual Brits.

One begins to think it's cultural.

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

I'm rapidly changing my mind to the former option, I weep for the NHS if this is the standard of intelligence in our medical staff.

How about engaging on the arguments, instead of gratuitously insulting other commentators? You're not coming across as particularly intelligent yourself. I'm sure you could be, if you tried.

Insults is all you're getting. Posting on PB has turned into a chore with all of the stupidity from normally thoughtful posters. Brexit and Trump seems to have sent people off the edge of some kind of a cliff and they (you) are all stuck in this "Germany = good" even when they are blatantly exploiting their position within a fixed currency system and hollowing out Southern Europe.

Hopefully when we do leave the EU those who can't be reconciled fuck off to Brussels and those who can will just get over it.

Brussels is a shithole. I was shocked just how dull it was. No wonder they have to move to Strasbourg once a month.

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

I'm rapidly changing my mind to the former option, I weep for the NHS if this is the standard of intelligence in our medical staff.

How about engaging on the arguments, instead of gratuitously insulting other commentators? You're not coming across as particularly intelligent yourself. I'm sure you could be, if you tried.

Insults is all you're getting. Posting on PB has turned into a chore with all of the stupidity from normally thoughtful posters. Brexit and Trump seems to have sent people off the edge of some kind of a cliff and they (you) are all stuck in this "Germany = good" even when they are blatantly exploiting their position within a fixed currency system and hollowing out Southern Europe.

Hopefully when we do leave the EU those who can't be reconciled fuck off to Brussels and those who can will just get over it.

Or maybe you should go to bed and hopefully not wake up being radged?

Mortimer said:

Rescue packages that have not written off the debt...

If memory serves, of the several debt doodads that Greece has received, one or two actually did involve actual debts being written off. The others involved delayed payments or swapping one debt instrument for another (which are technically also debt writeoffs, btw, but that's not what you meant).

HYUFD said:

viewcode said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

That's true. But, if everyone behaved like Germany, no one would prosper.

A strange thing for a conservative to say.

If I understand correctly, conservatives in the UK currently believe in a weak currency, increased government spending, a credit boom, increasing taxes, leaving free markets, and reducing debts by stoking inflation to inflate it away.

If you want to attach a generator to Thatcher's spinning body, I reckon we could generate a couple of megawatts.

Spending is still falling, just at a lower rate

I thought it was still increasing, just not by as much? Happy to be corrected if wrong.

viewcode said:

HYUFD said:

viewcode said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

That's true. But, if everyone behaved like Germany, no one would prosper.

A strange thing for a conservative to say.

If I understand correctly, conservatives in the UK currently believe in a weak currency, increased government spending, a credit boom, increasing taxes, leaving free markets, and reducing debts by stoking inflation to inflate it away.

If you want to attach a generator to Thatcher's spinning body, I reckon we could generate a couple of megawatts.

Spending is still falling, just at a lower rate

I thought it was still increasing, just not by as much? Happy to be corrected if wrong.

As a percentage of gdp it is falling

Is our own MarqueeMark in the QT audience this evening?

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

FF43 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Pulpstar said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Apple 'optimistic' about post Brexit UK
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920860

bastards

dont they read William Glenn ?

Clearly one of the world's most successful companies has not got the Glenn memo!

meanwhile as Greece burns , the Germans have a party

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38918804

Germany still holds most of the cards, yes

hmmm

I must say, as someone who is a genuine germanophile, this really is Germany at its worst.

They knew the Greeks should never have gone in to the Euro, but contrived to turn a blind eye

Now when its all gone tits up they have run from their repsonsibility to help them out of a mess they helped create and are piling endless misery on a helpless people

Appalling

Thats what a real economy looks like, not one based on people lashing up their credit cards in nail bars.

Bloody

Yes. All it took was impoverishing Southern Europe and locking in a 40% undervaluation in their currency. Dick.

Serial devaluation and inflation solves no problems, as we will shortly find out.

Are you thick or just being obtuse on purpose? Since you're a doctor I'm hoping it isn't the former.

serial devaluation has never been a marker of economic succes. There is no short cut to virtue.

That certainly has been the German mantra since the Second World War. Hard Mark/Euro. If you find it difficult to compete you reduce your costs or improve your product. They have been quite successful.

That's true. But, if everyone behaved like Germany, no one would prosper.

A strange thing for a conservative to say.

Its true though. The paradox of thrift.

However on an individual level its better to be thrifty than profligate.

Whenever our economy starts to look like it's doing pretty well we all spend and borrow money like it's going out of fashion. Always.

That goes for both HMG and individual Brits.

One begins to think it's cultural.

Indeed. A little bit of wage growth and we never hear the word "deficit" any more.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

"Where's the revolution?" - Essex synthesizer boys Depeche Mode's new single

What a dumb question. It's in Islington, everyone knows that.

Catchy though

Where's the revolution? Come on, people, you're letting me down.

HYUFD said:

viewcode said:

HYUFD said:

viewcode said:

williamglenn said:

Sean_F said:

That's true. But, if everyone behaved like Germany, no one would prosper.

A strange thing for a conservative to say.

If I understand correctly, conservatives in the UK currently believe in a weak currency, increased government spending, a credit boom, increasing taxes, leaving free markets, and reducing debts by stoking inflation to inflate it away.

If you want to attach a generator to Thatcher's spinning body, I reckon we could generate a couple of megawatts.

Spending is still falling, just at a lower rate

I thought it was still increasing, just not by as much? Happy to be corrected if wrong.

As a percentage of gdp it is falling

Ah, we're back to relative/percentages vs absolute values again. If my height increases by one inch, but everybody else's height increase by two inches, is it more accurate to describe my height to have increased (in an absolute sense it has) or decreased (in a relative sense, it has)

foxinsoxuk said:

welshowl said:

Casino_Royale said:

MaxPB said:

Pulpstar said:

What I want to know is, if the Euro is undervalued - what on earth does that make the pound.

@ Inception

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/events/the_launch_of_emu/euro_latest/245679.stm

£ / Eur 1.4175
EUR / USD 1.16675

Now we're at £ / Eur 1.1727
& Eur / USD 1.0748

So the Euro has dropped 7.9% relative to the USD - which is annoying Trump and his team.

But ! We've dropped 17.3% relative to the Euro, and 35% relative to the USD.

What reassures me is the massive trade surplus that we'll get due to our superior exporting power whilst our currency is temporarily under the pump

The IMF say the DM would be valued at $1.70, which compares to $1.07 or there abouts. It is currency manipulation by any other name.

I remember it used to be about 2.5-3 DMs to the pound.

3.6 when I lived in Germany in the mid 80's. Think it was 20 odd in the 60's. Interestingly 5ps used to work perfectly as 1DM in vending machines in the mid 80's - do the maths. So I was told (of course).

It is not the DM (or nominal equivalent) that has appreciated, it is the other currencies devaluing.

Sterling is tading at a trade weighted low. Indeed, depite the recent FTSE highs, the drop in Sterling makes the UK one of the worst places ito invest in equities.

Internationally that may well be so. But if your liabilities in a pension scheme are in Sterling a rise in the FTSE100 as a result of a fall in Sterling is still an unalloyed good thing. I'm still waiting for interest rates to rise as a result of the Pound falling, but I'm hopeful.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

"Where's the revolution?" - Essex synthesizer boys Depeche Mode's new single

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsCR05oKROA

I love the Mode but they've been calling for a revolution - and being "let down" - since A Broken Frame.

Casino_Royale said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

FF43 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MaxPB said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Pulpstar said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Apple 'optimistic' about post Brexit UK
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38920860

bastards

dont they read William Glenn ?

Clearly one of the world's most successful companies has not got the Glenn memo!

meanwhile as Greece burns , the Germans have a party

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38918804

Germany still holds most of the cards, yes

hmmm

I must say,

Appalling

Thats what a real economy looks like, not one based on people lashing up their credit cards in nail bars.

Bloody Germans,
combining a high wage, manufacturing economy with liberal democracy. Breaks all the rules of the protectionist nationalists.

Yes. All it took was impoverishing Southern Europe and locking in a 40% undervaluation in their currency. Dick.

Serial devaluation and inflation solves no problems, as we will shortly find out.

Are you thick or just being obtuse on purpose? Since you're a doctor I'm hoping it isn't the former.

serial devaluation has never been a marker of economic succes. There is no short cut to virtue.

That successful.

That's true. But, if everyone behaved like Germany, no one would prosper.

I have been mildly tickled by the Spiegel anti-Trump, anti-Putin and anti-Brexit rhetoric, recently.

Not saying I dig it, but it wasn't exactly an unambiguous success the last time the Germans dominated Europe and went up against the US, UK and Russia all at the same time.

Except things are very different now, indeed roles are reversed, with Germany (and other parts of the EU) being anti-militarist, pro capitalist, liberal, democracies, with the militaristic protectionist autocrats in the other corner. Big difference.

Lol. The Allies are the Nazis now.

Got it.

Nope. But it is equally ridiculous to depict the current Germany as Nazi. Germany has a political, economic and social system that we should emulate.

According to Twitter, Liberal Democrat GAIN Fairford North (Cotswold) from Conservative

augustus_carp said:

Any guesses when the local by-election results are expected tonight?

Not long - according to Britain Elects we've got the first one in - LDs gain Fairford North

Fairford North (Cotswold) result:
LDEM: 68.1% (+40.2)
CON: 30.1% (-20.9)
GRN: 1.8% (+1.8)
UKIP didn't stand this time round

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/829824435788062721

Sunil_Prasannan said:

augustus_carp said:

According to Twitter, Liberal Democrat GAIN Fairford North (Cotswold) from Conservative

"Go back to your parish councils and prepare for refuse collection!!!!!"

UKIp put in the trash for recycling...

Really will be fascinating to see if the LDs get even half the boosts they're getting in some of these isolated by-elections (turnouts are low, but not necessarily much lower than you get in the May locals a lot of the time).

Sadly, my council will not be counting overnight, for shame. And they counted the PCC elections overnight!

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Mortimer said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Mortimer said:

Is our own MarqueeMark in the QT audience this evening?

Oh god what a line up...jahadi Claire, Owen thingy, billy Bragg and failed dancer Ann widdy.

Indeed. I think Anne Widdecombe will be the most in touch with the common ground of Torbay...

It seems QT, like newsnight, really struggle to book leading politicians outside a very small group eg naughty nige, lady Nugee.

Ann Widdecombe was pretty senior but the top Cabinet Ministers are almost never on outside election time as they have other things to do

And it's riskier if they cock up.

Certainly

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/829824435788062721

Feel the lib dem surge.....

FrancisUrquhart said:

There was a really good freakonomics episode with a labour economist talking about globalisation and how politicians (and economists) have for far too long just looked at things like GDP and gone we are doing great and those that lost out to an industry moving to lower cost economy will simply retrain and move to new jobs...the guy explains why this has been flawed thinking and why we got trump etc.

James Goldsmith was saying essentially that over 20 years ago, but because of who he was, and his anti-EU and anti-Euro stances, he was seen as a crank by almost all of the political and media establishment. The amazing thing to me having never read what he said until relatively recently was how "left wing" his analysis of the likely effects of globalisation was, you could virtually put his words in the mouth of the most right-on liberal and it would sound natural.

I certainly agree about the obsession with GDP — which goes in hand with neatly ignoring population changes, income distribution, and individuals experiences — to paint a far rosier picture than is deserved.

None of this is to say that we should turn the clock back, but we should certainly treat with some scepticism the idea that free trade and globalisation are inherently good.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

augustus_carp said:

According to Twitter, Liberal Democrat GAIN Fairford North (Cotswold) from Conservative

"Go back to your parish councils and prepare for refuse collection!!!!!"

Isn't waste collection a district or county level function? Waste is no laughing matter, doctor.