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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May is still the only politician with a net favourable

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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047

    Mr. 1000, be fair. Belgium has nice chocolates and a splendid F1 circuit.

    And the originator of TinTin
  • Options

    Mr. 1000, be fair. Belgium has nice chocolates and a splendid F1 circuit.

    French food, German portions !
  • Options
    PaganPagan Posts: 259

    Pagan said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    England are going to lose this.

    Somewhat symbolic of a slight shift from England to France in the global league table post Brexit, on some measures France is now the bigger economy and Paris looks set to take at least some business from London now the UK is leaving the single market. Looks like I spoke too soon, England now back in front!
    I predict this match will foreshadow Brexit. Paris will hope to gain from London, the EU will hope to punish the UK, but in a dour, scrappy face-off, Perfidious Albion will somehow engineer a marginal victory - an actual if sketchy gain for London.

    But the spectacle will be so turgid and protracted people will wonder whether it was all worth it, given the modest changes. Et voila.
    Good summary, both Macron and Fillon have said they want to attract business to Paris from London and Verhofstadt and Juncker are clearly in no mood to compromise but I think May will tough it out and get at least a workable deal albeit with the controls on free movement based more on a more marginal change like a job offer requirement than bordering up the Channel Tunnel!
    No one seems to acknowledge how marginalized the UK is at the moment. Europe are laughing at our pretensions. As if they would want Theresa May to speak on their behalf!

    Trying to patronize the French is never a good idea but as they are now the only member of the security council representing 450,000,000 EU members it just sounds laughable,
    Roger why do you hate a country that gave you everything, your education, the ability to pursue your dreams? With all your pretensions to high culture etc. lets face it what have you given back? What great art have you provided us? What life changing philosophies have you endowed to our great nation you so disparage?

    Oh thats right use the right tampon and you too can rollerskate while wearing white jeans!

    You do know their are people on council estates that do better art than that using spray cans?
    The UK has given you everything?
    Golly, that sounds a bit statist and disparaging of an indiviidual's ability to make their own way in life.
    By that I meant living in the uk he has been given opportunity to make the most of his life. Backed up by free education, free healthcare, and a safety net for when things all go wrong. Even in Eu countries this is not universal for the above three.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047

    Mr. 1000, be fair. Belgium has nice chocolates and a splendid F1 circuit.

    French food, German portions !
    The beer's often very good, too!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    Pagan said:

    Pagan said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    England are going to lose this.

    Somewhat symbolic of a slight shift from England to France in the global league table post Brexit, on some measures France is now the bigger economy and Paris looks set to take at least some business from London now the UK is leaving the single market. Looks like I spoke too soon, England now back in front!
    I predict this match will foreshadow Brexit. Paris will hope to gain from London, the EU will hope to punish the UK, but in a dour, scrappy face-off, Perfidious Albion will somehow engineer a marginal victory - an actual if sketchy gain for London.

    But the spectacle will be so turgid and protracted people will wonder whether it was all worth it, given the modest changes. Et voila.
    Good summary, both Macron and Fillon have said they want to attract business to Paris from London and Verhofstadt and Juncker are clearly in no mood to compromise but I think May will tough it out and get at least a workable deal albeit with the controls on free movement based more on a more marginal change like a job offer requirement than bordering up the Channel Tunnel!
    No one seems to acknowledge how marginalized the UK is at the moment. Europe are laughing at our pretensions. As if they would want Theresa May to speak on their behalf!

    Trying to patronize the French is never a good idea but as they are now the only member of the security council representing 450,000,000 EU members it just sounds laughable,
    Roger why do you hate a country that gave you everything, your education, the ability to pursue your dreams? With all your pretensions to high culture etc. lets face it what have you given back? What great art have you provided us? What life changing philosophies have you endowed to our great nation you so disparage?

    Oh thats right use the right tampon and you too can rollerskate while wearing white jeans!

    You do know their are people on council estates that do better art than that using spray cans?
    The UK has given you everything?
    Golly, that sounds a bit statist and disparaging of an indiviidual's ability to make their own way in life.
    By that I meant living in the uk he has been given opportunity to make the most of his life. Backed up by free education, free healthcare, and a safety net for when things all go wrong. Even in Eu countries this is not universal for the above three.
    In most of northern Europe it basically is
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Sandpit said:

    On the next GE date, unless something happens in the next week or two that derails the A50 vote, there's not going to be a GE before 2019. My reasoning is that it isn't a risk worth taking during the negotiation phase, it would either be before the start, or right at the end when something important gets voted down.

    The secondary consideration is the boundary changes, which are due at the end of 2018. It's difficult to underestimate the importance of this to the Conservative party, the last thing they want is for another five years under the old boundaries - especially if there's the opportunity to have Labour commit ritual suicide by forcing reselections on almost everyone.

    2019 GE is currently 8.2 on Betfair, longer than 2018. I think there's some value there. DYOR as always. https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.125858951

    But it is far from certain that the boundary changes will be approved in Autumn 2018. At least 4 Tory MPs have indicated that they intend to oppose them and others are likely to abstain. The Government's majority is 10 at present - if a by election is called in Thanet South I would expect that to drop to 8.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Mr. 1000, be fair. Belgium has nice chocolates and a splendid F1 circuit.

    And the originator of TinTin
    And Victor D'Hondt.
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    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869

    Good evening, Miss JGP.

    Lucky for you there wasn't a nuclear apocalypse :p

    The real good fortune is that I didn't spend any of my younger years worrying about all those precautions.

    I knew the threat was there, but didn't really take a lot of notice - only to hope that if the worst happened, I'd be among those killed instantly.

    I remember the odd joke about putting a paper bag over your head, and the advice about the inner-most room, but that's all.

    Presumably, the government disseminated those films via TV, and even in the 70s, not everybody had them. (I haven't now.)
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,894
    Pagan said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    England are going to lose this.

    Somewhat symbolic of a slight shift from England to France in the global league table post Brexit, on some measures France is now the bigger economy and Paris looks set to take at least some business from London now the UK is leaving the single market. Looks like I spoke too soon, England now back in front!
    I predict this match will foreshadow Brexit. Paris will hope to gain from London, the EU will hope to punish the UK, but in a dour, scrappy face-off, Perfidious Albion will somehow engineer a marginal victory - an actual if sketchy gain for London.

    But the spectacle will be so turgid and protracted people will wonder whether it was all worth it, given the modest changes. Et voila.
    Good summary, both Macron and Fillon have said they want to attract business to Paris from London and Verhofstadt and Juncker are clearly in no mood to compromise but I think May will tough it out and get at least a workable deal albeit with the controls on free movement based more on a more marginal change like a job offer requirement than bordering up the Channel Tunnel!
    No one seems to acknowledge how marginalized the UK is at the moment. Europe are laughing at our pretensions. As if they would want Theresa May to speak on their behalf!

    Trying to patronize the French is never a good idea but as they are now the only member of the security council representing 450,000,000 EU members it just sounds laughable,
    Roger why do you hate a country that gave you everything, your education, the ability to pursue your dreams? With all your pretensions to high culture etc. lets face it what have you given back? What great art have you provided us? What life changing philosophies have you endowed to our great nation you so disparage?

    Oh thats right use the right tampon and you too can rollerskate while wearing white jeans!

    You do know their are people on council estates that do better art than that using spray cans?
    Well at least you know the tricks of tampon advertising. The question is have you the confidence to jump out of a car with a camera focused on your bum without a sneaky look at your reflection in a shop window?

    PS I don't do tampon ads other than in SeanT's dreams
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,252
    edited February 2017
    Pagan said:

    Pagan said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    England are going to lose this.

    Somewhat symbolic of a slight shift from England to France in the global league table post Brexit, on some measures France is now the bigger economy and Paris looks set to take at least some business from London now the UK is leaving the single market. Looks like I spoke too soon, England now back in front!
    I predict this match will foreshadow Brexit. Paris will hope to gain from London, the EU will hope to punish the UK, but in a dour, scrappy face-off, Perfidious Albion will somehow engineer a marginal victory - an actual if sketchy gain for London.

    But the spectacle will be so turgid and protracted people will wonder whether it was all worth it, given the modest changes. Et voila.
    Good summary, both Macron and Fillon have said they want to attract business to Paris from London and Verhofstadt and Juncker are clearly in no mood to compromise but I think May will tough it out and get at least a workable deal albeit with the controls on free movement based more on a more marginal change like a job offer requirement than bordering up the Channel Tunnel!
    No one seems to acknowledge how marginalized the UK is at the moment. Europe are laughing at our pretensions. As if they would want Theresa May to speak on their behalf!

    Trying to patronize the French is never a good idea but as they are now the only member of the security council representing 450,000,000 EU members it just sounds laughable,
    Roger why do you hate a country that gave you everything, your education, the ability to pursue your dreams? With all your pretensions to high culture etc. lets face it what have you given back? What great art have you provided us? What life changing philosophies have you endowed to our great nation you so disparage?

    Oh thats right use the right tampon and you too can rollerskate while wearing white jeans!

    You do know their are people on council estates that do better art than that using spray cans?
    The UK has given you everything?
    Golly, that sounds a bit statist and disparaging of an indiviidual's ability to make their own way in life.
    By that I meant living in the uk he has been given opportunity to make the most of his life. Backed up by free education, free healthcare, and a safety net for when things all go wrong. Even in Eu countries this is not universal for the above three.
    I may be wrong but I believe Roger has benefited from a private education.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047
    justin124 said:

    Sandpit said:

    On the next GE date, unless something happens in the next week or two that derails the A50 vote, there's not going to be a GE before 2019. My reasoning is that it isn't a risk worth taking during the negotiation phase, it would either be before the start, or right at the end when something important gets voted down.

    The secondary consideration is the boundary changes, which are due at the end of 2018. It's difficult to underestimate the importance of this to the Conservative party, the last thing they want is for another five years under the old boundaries - especially if there's the opportunity to have Labour commit ritual suicide by forcing reselections on almost everyone.

    2019 GE is currently 8.2 on Betfair, longer than 2018. I think there's some value there. DYOR as always. https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.125858951

    But it is far from certain that the boundary changes will be approved in Autumn 2018. At least 4 Tory MPs have indicated that they intend to oppose them and others are likely to abstain. The Government's majority is 10 at present - if a by election is called in Thanet South I would expect that to drop to 8.
    Do you think Labour will win it back?
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited February 2017
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    GeoffM said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    England are going to lose this.

    Somewhat symbolic of a slight shift from England to France in the global league table post Brexit, on some measures France is now the bigger economy and Paris looks set to take at least some business from London now the UK is leaving the single market. Looks like I spoke too soon, England now back in front!
    I predict this match will foreshadow Brexit. Paris will hope to gain from London, the EU will hope to punish the UK, but in a dour, scrappy face-off, Perfidious Albion will somehow engineer a marginal victory - an actual if sketchy gain for London.

    But the spectacle will be so turgid and protracted people will wonder whether it was all worth it, given the modest changes. Et voila.
    Good summary, both Macron and Fillon have said they want to attract business to Paris from London and Verhofstadt and Juncker are clearly in no mood to compromise but I think May will tough it out and get at least a workable deal albeit with the controls on free movement based more on a more marginal change like a job offer requirement than bordering up the Channel Tunnel!
    No one seems to acknowledge how marginalized the UK is at the moment. Europe are laughing at our pretensions. As if they would want Theresa May to speak on their behalf!

    Trying to patronize the French is never a good idea but as they are now the only member of the security council representing 450,000,000 EU members it just sounds laughable,
    It would make sense for the French to hand that Security Council seat over to the EU
    A look at the five largest economic blocs gives as new SC members: China, EU, US, India, Japan - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

    The lack of Russia in the top five and the presence of Japan might be a tiny bit problematic, given the history behind the formation of the UN in 1945.
    I always prefer to think in terms of exports, as to relative world importance.

    Here you go: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exports

    And this was before the oil price collapse. So Russia is a less import economy than Taiwan, Spain or... embarrassingly... Belgium.
    Yet Russia is the largest nation by land area and in effect the number 1 global foreign policy power at the moment, on that chart of exports it is also ahead of India and Spain
    Edited because I feel vaguely guilty about being rude.
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    Mr. 1000, be fair. Belgium has nice chocolates and a splendid F1 circuit.

    Swiss Chocolate is better :)
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    JohnO said:

    Pulpstar said:

    May is NOT going to have a may election. The fixed term parliament act is in place, and she has the mother of all negotiations coming up. How would our european counterparts look on us if we're going to take a time out to have a blimming election in the meantime ?

    The only place any sort of Brexit blocking might go on is the Lords, and a GE changes nothing in the other place.

    I can't believe people are seriously entertaining such guff. Are you the ones backing 5-2 on Betfair for the early election ???

    I agree it's unlikely but really not impossible. Brexit is triggered on March 12th, May asks Parliament for an election, which passes with the required two-thirds majority, and polling day is on May 4th along with the local elections. There was talk a few days about the Tories accelerating candidate selections in Labour seats.

    Very do-able and no impact on the negotiations.
    The latest date for Parliament to be dissolved for an election on May 4th is March 27th. The vote authorising that would have taken place in the previous week. I could not imagine May trying it at all if she had reason to believe that Labour would oppose it.Poor results for Labour at the two by elections would almost certainly make it unlikely that Corbyn would co-operate.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Mr. 1000, be fair. Belgium has nice chocolates and a splendid F1 circuit.

    And the originator of TinTin
    And Victor D'Hondt.
    Are we trying to think of more famous Belgians? If so, Poiroit doesn't count! Not sure about Rembrandt; might have been Dutch.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    Sandpit said:

    On the next GE date, unless something happens in the next week or two that derails the A50 vote, there's not going to be a GE before 2019. My reasoning is that it isn't a risk worth taking during the negotiation phase, it would either be before the start, or right at the end when something important gets voted down.

    The secondary consideration is the boundary changes, which are due at the end of 2018. It's difficult to underestimate the importance of this to the Conservative party, the last thing they want is for another five years under the old boundaries - especially if there's the opportunity to have Labour commit ritual suicide by forcing reselections on almost everyone.

    2019 GE is currently 8.2 on Betfair, longer than 2018. I think there's some value there. DYOR as always. https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.125858951

    But it is far from certain that the boundary changes will be approved in Autumn 2018. At least 4 Tory MPs have indicated that they intend to oppose them and others are likely to abstain. The Government's majority is 10 at present - if a by election is called in Thanet South I would expect that to drop to 8.
    Do you think Labour will win it back?
    UKIP would be likely to take it given the circumstances of the by election.
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    Mr Ears, thank you for your comments upthread. My avatar was lifted from a poster at a university advertising a talk I was about to give!

    I often go to a meeting close to Colchester's newest public building; FirstSite. I'm by no means certain that it fits in, or is appropriate for the town.

    Good grief. Haven't visited Colchester for a few years and didn't know about that one. That's really quite something, can't believe they built it where they did! Must spoil some of the views...
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    PaganPagan Posts: 259
    edited February 2017


    The point I was making which obviously got lost somewhere that if it hadnt been for living in a liberal place like the UK he would likely not be where he is now. He got his free education and all the rest on the back of the taxes payed by the plebs he so despises. I am just suggesting he might reflect on that a little before despising them quite so much and actually think he has a lot to thank them for.

    If any of us were thrown into an evironment where we had to provide all that off our own sweat then I think many of us wouldnt be where we are now and I think it is right we should all be a little thankful that our country was behind us back stopping us so we could make a mistake or two without it leading to total disaster.

    To me sneering at the country and our countrymen that enabled us to get to wherever we are just reeks of entitlement
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,779
    rcs1000 said:


    I always prefer to think in terms of exports, as to relative world importance.

    Here you go: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exports

    And this was before the oil price collapse. So Russia is a less import economy than Taiwan, Spain or... embarrassingly... Belgium.

    Putin has done quite well for Russia's place in the world, on his own terms, by dialing up the aggression and bad behaviour. Belgium doesn't bother and so doesn't have the status that Russia does. However Russia's game is totally zero-sum.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    Pagan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pagan said:

    Pagan said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:



    Good summary, both Macron and Fillon have said they want to attract business to Paris from London and Verhofstadt and Juncker are clearly in no mood to compromise but I think May will tough it out and get at least a workable deal albeit with the controls on free movement based more on a more marginal change like a job offer requirement than bordering up the Channel Tunnel!

    No one seems to acknowledge how marginalized the UK is at the moment. Europe are laughing at our pretensions. As if they would want Theresa May to speak on their behalf!

    Trying to patronize the French is never a good idea but as they are now the only member of the security council representing 450,000,000 EU members it just sounds laughable,
    Roger why do you hate a country that gave you everything, your education, the ability to pursue your dreams? With all your pretensions to high culture etc. lets face it what have you given back? What great art have you provided us? What life changing philosophies have you endowed to our great nation you so disparage?

    Oh thats right use the right tampon and you too can rollerskate while wearing white jeans!

    You do know their are people on council estates that do better art than that using spray cans?
    The UK has given you everything?
    Golly, that sounds a bit statist and disparaging of an indiviidual's ability to make their own way in life.
    By that I meant living in the uk he has been given opportunity to make the most of his life. Backed up by free education, free healthcare, and a safety net for when things all go wrong. Even in Eu countries this is not universal for the above three.
    In most of northern Europe it basically is
    The point I was making which obviously got lost somewhere that if it hadnt been for living in a liberal place like the UK he would likely not be where he is now. He got his free education and all the rest on the back of the taxes payed by the plebs he so despises. I am just suggesting he might reflect on that a little before despising them quite so much and actually think he has a lot to thank them for.

    If any of us were thrown into an evironment where we had to provide all that off our own sweat then I think many of us wouldnt be where we are now and I think it is right we should all be a little thankful that our country was behind us back stopping us so we could make a mistake or two without it leading to total disaster.

    To me sneering at the country and our countrymen that enabled us to get to wherever we are just reeks of entitlement
    Don't disagree
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131

    Pagan said:

    Pagan said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    England are going to lose this.

    Somewhat symbolic of a slight shift from England to France in the global league table post Brexit, on some measures France is now the bigger economy and Paris looks set to take at least some business from London now the UK is leaving the single market. Looks like I spoke too soon, England now back in front!
    I predict this match will foreshadow Brexit. Paris will hope to gain from London, the EU will hope to punish the UK, but in a dour, scrappy face-off, Perfidious Albion will somehow engineer a marginal victory - an actual if sketchy gain for London.

    But the spectacle will be so turgid and protracted people will wonder whether it was all worth it, given the modest changes. Et voila.
    Good summary, both Macron and Fillon have said they want to attract business to Paris from London and Verhofstadt and Juncker are clearly in no mood to compromise but I think May will tough it out and get at least a workable deal albeit with the controls on free movement based more on a more marginal change like a job offer requirement than bordering up the Channel Tunnel!
    No one seems to acknowledge how marginalized the UK is at the moment. Europe are laughing at our pretensions. As if they would want Theresa May to speak on their behalf!

    Trying to patronize the French is never a good idea but as they are now the only member of the security council representing 450,000,000 EU members it just sounds laughable,
    Roger why do you hate a country that gave you everything, your education, the ability to pursue your dreams? With all your pretensions to high culture etc. lets face it what have you given back? What great art have you provided us? What life changing philosophies have you endowed to our great nation you so disparage?

    Oh thats right use the right tampon and you too can rollerskate while wearing white jeans!

    You do know their are people on council estates that do better art than that using spray cans?
    The UK has given you everything?
    Golly, that sounds a bit statist and disparaging of an indiviidual's ability to make their own way in life.
    By that I meant living in the uk he has been given opportunity to make the most of his life. Backed up by free education, free healthcare, and a safety net for when things all go wrong. Even in Eu countries this is not universal for the above three.
    I may be wrong but I believe Roger has benefited from a private education.
    In England
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047
    edited February 2017

    Mr Ears, thank you for your comments upthread. My avatar was lifted from a poster at a university advertising a talk I was about to give!

    I often go to a meeting close to Colchester's newest public building; FirstSite. I'm by no means certain that it fits in, or is appropriate for the town.

    Good grief. Haven't visited Colchester for a few years and didn't know about that one. That's really quite something, can't believe they built it where they did! Must spoil some of the views...
    The big issue is what is intended to happen to the former Bus Station site next door. The present site for the Bus Station is extremely unattractive, and unpleasant to use, even by Bus Station standards!
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    GeoffM said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    England are going to lose this.

    Somewhat symbolic of a slight shift from England to France in the global league table post Brexit, on some measures France is now the bigger economy and Paris looks set to take at least some business from London now the UK is leaving the single market. Looks like I spoke too soon, England now back in front!
    I predict this match will foreshadow Brexit. Paris will hope to gain from London, the EU will hope to punish the UK, but in a dour, scrappy face-off, Perfidious Albion will somehow engineer a marginal victory - an actual if sketchy gain for London.

    But the spectacle will be so turgid and protracted people will wonder whether it was all worth it, given the modest changes. Et voila.
    Good summary, both Macron and Fillon have said they want to attract business to Paris from London and Verhofstadt and Juncker are clearly in no mood to compromise but I think May will tough it out and get at least a workable deal albeit with the controls on free movement based more on a more marginal change like a job offer requirement than bordering up the Channel Tunnel!
    No one seems to acknowledge how marginalized the UK is at the moment. Europe are laughing at our pretensions. As if they would want Theresa May to speak on their behalf!

    Trying to patronize the French is never a good idea but as they are now the only member of the security council representing 450,000,000 EU members it just sounds laughable,
    It would make sense for the French to hand that Security Council seat over to the EU
    A look at the five largest economic blocs gives as new SC members: China, EU, US, India, Japan - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

    The lack of Russia in the top five and the presence of Japan might be a tiny bit problematic, given the history behind the formation of the UN in 1945.
    I always prefer to think in terms of exports, as to relative world importance.

    Here you go: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exports

    And this was before the oil price collapse. So Russia is a less import economy than Taiwan, Spain or... embarrassingly... Belgium.
    There are 204 countries on that list, as well as various territories and dependencies. Iceland is 115, Malta is 120, San Marino is 121 and Liechtenstein is 122. What that says about the 80-odd countries beneath them - not all of whom are piddly (Ethiopia, Mozambique, Georgia, Lebanon, Zimbabwe are the next five) I dread to think. Europe really is rich.
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    Ishmael_Z said:

    Mr. 1000, be fair. Belgium has nice chocolates and a splendid F1 circuit.

    And the originator of TinTin
    And Victor D'Hondt.
    Are we trying to think of more famous Belgians? If so, Poiroit doesn't count! Not sure about Rembrandt; might have been Dutch.
    Shitload of excellent painters.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Flemish_painters
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:


    I always prefer to think in terms of exports, as to relative world importance.

    Here you go: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exports

    And this was before the oil price collapse. So Russia is a less import economy than Taiwan, Spain or... embarrassingly... Belgium.

    Putin has done quite well for Russia's place in the world, on his own terms, by dialing up the aggression and bad behaviour. Belgium doesn't bother and so doesn't have the status that Russia does. However Russia's game is totally zero-sum.
    In terms of the G20 then yes, size of the economy should be most important. However in terms of the UNSC if anything size and quality of the military should be key if the UNSC is going to have any power to back up its resolutions. On that basis the order is 1.US 2. Russia
    3. China 4. India 5. France 6. UK
    http://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.asp
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,060
    HYUFD said:

    Yet Russia is the largest nation by land area and in effect the number 1 global foreign policy power at the moment, on that chart of exports it is also ahead of India and Spain

    That's from 2015, when the price of oil, gas, coal, etc. were all much, much higher.

    Here's why the Russians should be really scared: http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/rus/all/show/2013/

    Russia is utterly dependent on commodities. It exports practically nothing else. And the oligarchs, fearful of Putin and the lack of the rule of law, pull every ruble they make (from the export of oil, etc.) and put it beyond the reach of the Russian state.

    There is no modern industry - beyond a few small oil & gas suppliers and a few defence companies.

    But what's truly staggering is that the price of commodities has increased 6-12x between Putins's first ascent to power and now. And, outside a few gleaming Moscow boutiques, and the equipment of the Russian military, that money has not helped the average Russian. In possibly the best 20 years that the world's number one commodity exporter could ever have hoped for, it's marginally closed the gap on Italy.
  • Options
    PaganPagan Posts: 259
    Roger said:

    Pagan said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:



    I predict this match will foreshadow Brexit. Paris will hope to gain from London, the EU will hope to punish the UK, but in a dour, scrappy face-off, Perfidious Albion will somehow engineer a marginal victory - an actual if sketchy gain for London.

    But the spectacle will be so turgid and protracted people will wonder whether it was all worth it, given the modest changes. Et voila.

    Good summary, both Macron and Fillon have said they want to attract business to Paris from London and Verhofstadt and Juncker are clearly in no mood to compromise but I think May will tough it out and get at least a workable deal albeit with the controls on free movement based more on a more marginal change like a job offer requirement than bordering up the Channel Tunnel!
    No one seems to acknowledge how marginalized the UK is at the moment. Europe are laughing at our pretensions. As if they would want Theresa May to speak on their behalf!

    Trying to patronize the French is never a good idea but as they are now the only member of the security council representing 450,000,000 EU members it just sounds laughable,
    Roger why do you hate a country that gave you everything, your education, the ability to pursue your dreams? With all your pretensions to high culture etc. lets face it what have you given back? What great art have you provided us? What life changing philosophies have you endowed to our great nation you so disparage?

    Oh thats right use the right tampon and you too can rollerskate while wearing white jeans!

    You do know their are people on council estates that do better art than that using spray cans?
    Well at least you know the tricks of tampon advertising. The question is have you the confidence to jump out of a car with a camera focused on your bum without a sneaky look at your reflection in a shop window?

    PS I don't do tampon ads other than in SeanT's dreams
    Still advertising which is the bete noire of most folks existence. It adds nothing to human knowledge, it adds nothing to human culture, just conning folks into buying crap they don't need. As a leftie surely you should be ashamed of yourself getting poor folk to spend money on crap they don't need. After all its those thickies on the couch as you think of them most likely to believe adverts I assume
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    justin124 said:

    Sandpit said:

    On the next GE date, unless something happens in the next week or two that derails the A50 vote, there's not going to be a GE before 2019. My reasoning is that it isn't a risk worth taking during the negotiation phase, it would either be before the start, or right at the end when something important gets voted down.

    The secondary consideration is the boundary changes, which are due at the end of 2018. It's difficult to underestimate the importance of this to the Conservative party, the last thing they want is for another five years under the old boundaries - especially if there's the opportunity to have Labour commit ritual suicide by forcing reselections on almost everyone.

    2019 GE is currently 8.2 on Betfair, longer than 2018. I think there's some value there. DYOR as always. https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.125858951

    But it is far from certain that the boundary changes will be approved in Autumn 2018. At least 4 Tory MPs have indicated that they intend to oppose them and others are likely to abstain. The Government's majority is 10 at present - if a by election is called in Thanet South I would expect that to drop to 8.
    I don't disagree, although I doubt Sinn Fein will turn up and there's probably the support of Carswell, so the majority is bigger than it looks on paper - by-elections in the next 20 months not withstanding of course.

    There will be the mother of all three line whips on the boundary vote, any Tory voting against it will be expecting deselection. There's already retirements announced and expect more in the next 18 months, as the revisions come through and the whips and local parties work out who ends up where in the new 600-seat HoC. Anyone looking like a troublemaker can probably expect a seat in the Other Place for their efforts.

    There will be no quarter given to get it through, to the Tories it's the most important vote this Parliament.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Mr. 1000, be fair. Belgium has nice chocolates and a splendid F1 circuit.

    And the originator of TinTin
    And Victor D'Hondt.
    Are we trying to think of more famous Belgians? If so, Poiroit doesn't count! Not sure about Rembrandt; might have been Dutch.
    Shitload of excellent painters.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Flemish_painters
    Thanks. Point taken.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    edited February 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yet Russia is the largest nation by land area and in effect the number 1 global foreign policy power at the moment, on that chart of exports it is also ahead of India and Spain

    That's from 2015, when the price of oil, gas, coal, etc. were all much, much higher.

    Here's why the Russians should be really scared: http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/rus/all/show/2013/

    Russia is utterly dependent on commodities. It exports practically nothing else. And the oligarchs, fearful of Putin and the lack of the rule of law, pull every ruble they make (from the export of oil, etc.) and put it beyond the reach of the Russian state.

    There is no modern industry - beyond a few small oil & gas suppliers and a few defence companies.

    But what's truly staggering is that the price of commodities has increased 6-12x between Putins's first ascent to power and now. And, outside a few gleaming Moscow boutiques, and the equipment of the Russian military, that money has not helped the average Russian. In possibly the best 20 years that the world's number one commodity exporter could ever have hoped for, it's marginally closed the gap on Italy.
    Yes and Russia is no longer in the G8. However it does use the resources it has to project power abroad and in UNSC terms that is the key measure
  • Options

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Personally I don't like the new scoring system full stop. Gone are the days of rolling about in the mud games where the ball is hidden in the middle of 16 fatty forwards hugging each other for 60 minutes the game and the backs blasting kicks from one half to the other and back again. The international rule changes has enforced a much more open and attacking game of rugby, so no need for all this bonus point stuff.

    Well that was a pretty damn exciting 40 minutes of rugby from Scotland, so early days, but a good start.
    It's good to see them back, finally.
    Cracking game. Be good if Scotland could start challenging again.

    Open, attacking, closely fought international rugby is the best team sport in the world. End of.

    Trouble is it rarely reaches those heights.
    You obviously missed the past 12 months of England games then....Especially the games against Australia down under. They were bigly epic games...does Trump hand gestures...Making Rugby Great Again...
    I watched them all! England were superb.

    I'm just saying this is a jolly good game. Is all. Who knows if the bonus points will benefit the game further, but let's give it a chance.

    I agree the sport is vastly improved from the slugfests of the past.
    It can be fun to watch some old sports which were perhaps a little more amateurish than now, and see how slow and ponderous they can look in comparison. Doesn't apply to all sports though.

    Given HD broadcasting was not a thing until relatively recently, it can also make something from 15 years ago look like it was 30-40 years ago. I don't know how we got by before HD.
    Sport in SD now just looks horrific. That been said when 4K at 60fps becomes the norm, we will probably say how did we ever watch that crappy HD at such a low frame rate.

    Rugby is a totally different game now. Cricket on the other hand, watching Lillee, Thompson, Holding....nope I am still glad I am on my sofa and not 22 yards away.
    Dennis Lillee v Viv Richards 1976:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t51RjEpw8E0

    First four deliveries in a one day game are bouncers followed by clean bowling Sir Viv.

    Dennis also manages to bowl 6 deliveries in under 3 minutes.

    Scorecard for the match:

    http://static.espncricinfo.com/db/ARCHIVE/1970S/1976-77/AUS_LOCAL/AUS-GC/WA_QLD_AUS-GC_12DEC1976.html
  • Options
    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    HYUFD said:

    GeoffM said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    England are going to lose this.

    Somewhat symbolic of a slight shift from England to France in the global league table post Brexit, on some measures France is now the bigger economy and Paris looks set to take at least some business from London now the UK is leaving the single market. Looks like I spoke too soon, England now back in front!
    I predict this match will foreshadow Brexit. Paris will hope to gain from London, the EU will hope to punish the UK, but in a dour, scrappy face-off, Perfidious Albion will somehow engineer a marginal victory - an actual if sketchy gain for London.

    But the spectacle will be so turgid and protracted people will wonder whether it was all worth it, given the modest changes. Et voila.
    Good summary, both Macron and Fillon have said they want to attract business to Paris from London and Verhofstadt and Juncker are clearly in no mood to compromise but I think May will tough it out and get at least a workable deal albeit with the controls on free movement based more on a more marginal change like a job offer requirement than bordering up the Channel Tunnel!
    No one seems to acknowledge how marginalized the UK is at the moment. Europe are laughing at our pretensions. As if they would want Theresa May to speak on their behalf!

    Trying to patronize the French is never a good idea but as they are now the only member of the security council representing 450,000,000 EU members it just sounds laughable,
    It would make sense for the French to hand that Security Council seat over to the EU
    A look at the five largest economic blocs gives as new SC members: China, EU, US, India, Japan - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

    The lack of Russia in the top five and the presence of Japan might be a tiny bit problematic, given the history behind the formation of the UN in 1945.
    There is no EU state and until there is France is certainly not going to hand over to it. India is also still not in the top 5 by GDP on a nominal basis. Given the UNSC is mainly focused on foreign policy rather than economics (that is the role of the G20 now which has India and Japan as members anyway) I see little reason to include India and Japan as they take little interest in foreign policy beyond their immediate region unlike Russia
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
    PPP is essential to reflect differences in the cost of living between countries.
  • Options
    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited February 2017
    AnneJGP said:

    @TheWhiteRabbit and anyone else curious:

    h.ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6U9T3R3EQg

    Everything from how to put out fires to how to dispose of toilet waste to how not to get the fallout dust in your baked beans. Gloomy stuff.

    Thanks for posting that. I have just watched it all. What baffles me is that I was in my 20s in the 1970s - and yet I have never seen or heard of that series of films before now. Or the book(let) they recommend.

    Where was I? What was I doing? How could I miss out on that?

    Good evening, everyone.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protect_and_Survive#Television

    It wasn't meant to be broadcast when The Event was imminent. Fortunately none of us have yet lived long enough to witness The Event, and presumably the likely nature of The Event has now changed. I wonder what the public information films for The New Event look like - they must have been prepared, surely.

    Wikipedia tells us that The series was considered classified material that was intended for transmission on all television channels only if the government determined that nuclear attack was likely within 72 hours, although recordings were leaked to organisations like CND and press organisations like the BBC, who broadcast it on Panorama as a discussion of public affairs, on 10 March 1980, shortly after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.
  • Options
    Mr. Pagan, wish I were better at marketing. Biggest problem for a writer who isn't JK Rowling or SK Tremayne is simply getting noticed.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131

    HYUFD said:

    GeoffM said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    England are going to lose this.

    Somewhat symbolic of a slight shift from England to France in the global league table post Brexit, on some measures France is now the bigger economy and Paris looks set to take at least some business from London now the UK is leaving the single market. Looks like I spoke too soon, England now back in front!
    I predict this match will foreshadow Brexit. Paris will hope to gain from London, the EU will hope to punish the UK, but in a dour, scrappy face-off, Perfidious Albion will somehow engineer a marginal victory - an actual if sketchy gain for London.

    But the spectacle will be so turgid and protracted people will wonder whether it was all worth it, given the modest changes. Et voila.
    Good summary, both Macron and Fillon have said they want to attract business to Paris from London and Verhofstadt and Juncker are clearly in no mood to compromise but I think May will tough it out and get at least a workable deal albeit with the controls on free movement based more on a more marginal change like a job offer requirement than bordering up the Channel Tunnel!
    No on,
    It would make sense for the French to hand that Security Council seat over to the EU
    A look at the five largest economic blocs gives as new SC members: China, EU, US, India, Japan - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

    The lack of Russia in the top five and the presence of Japan might be a tiny bit problematic, given the history behind the formation of the UN in 1945.
    There is no EU state and until there is France is certainly not going to hand over to it. India is also still not in the top 5 by GDP on a nominal basis. Given the UNSC is mainly focused on foreign policy rather than economics (that is the role of the G20 now which has India and Japan as members anyway) I see little reason to include India and Japan as they take little interest in foreign policy beyond their immediate region unlike Russia
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
    PPP is essential to reflect differences in the cost of living between countries.
    Only if you live there, in global terms it is of little relevance as someone in a nation with a high nominal GDP will always be able to out buy someone in a nation with a high PPP
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,060
    Just to follow up on Russia, yesterday I had lunch with Simon Henry, the outgoing CFO of Shell. We chatted about what he was going to do next, and the like. And I teased him about something he'd said about oil demand peaking in the next decade, and he said that he was deadly serious: he couldn't see how, in a world where electric cars were getting cheaper, and cheaper, how oil demand didn't peak long before supply.

    That's scary for Saudi Arabia, and Iran, and Russia. What if Peak Oil was all about Peak Demand?
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047
    Pagan said:

    Roger said:

    Pagan said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:



    I predict this match will foreshadow Brexit. Paris will hope to gain from London, the EU will hope to punish the UK, but in a dour, scrappy face-off, Perfidious Albion will somehow engineer a marginal victory - an actual if sketchy gain for London.

    But the spectacle will be so turgid and protracted people will wonder whether it was all worth it, given the modest changes. Et voila.

    Good summary, both Macron and Fillon have said they want to attract business to Paris from London and Verhofstadt and Juncker are clearly in no mood to compromise but I think May will tough it out and get at least a workable deal albeit with the controls on free movement based more on a more marginal change like a job offer requirement than bordering up the Channel Tunnel!
    No one seems to acknowledge how marginalized the UK is at the moment. Europe are laughing at our pretensions. As if they would want Theresa May to speak on their behalf!

    Trying to patronize the French is never a good idea but as they are now the only member of the security council representing 450,000,000 EU members it just sounds laughable,
    Roger why do you hate a country that gave you everything, your education, the ability to pursue your dreams? With all your pretensions to high culture etc. lets face it what have you given back? What great art have you provided us? What life changing philosophies have you endowed to our great nation you so disparage?

    Oh thats right use the right tampon and you too can rollerskate while wearing white jeans!

    You do know their are people on council estates that do better art than that using spray cans?
    Well at least you know the tricks of tampon advertising. The question is have you the confidence to jump out of a car with a camera focused on your bum without a sneaky look at your reflection in a shop window?

    PS I don't do tampon ads other than in SeanT's dreams
    Still advertising which is the bete noire of most folks existence. It adds nothing to human knowledge, it adds nothing to human culture, just conning folks into buying crap they don't need. As a leftie surely you should be ashamed of yourself getting poor folk to spend money on crap they don't need. After all its those thickies on the couch as you think of them most likely to believe adverts I assume
    Advertising does make us aware of new products, and/or alternatives. Don't see how you can have a modern society without it. I know all about building a better mousetrap, but Gray had it right too. 'Full many a flower .... bloom unseen. And waste its fragrance ....
  • Options
    PaganPagan Posts: 259

    Mr. Pagan, wish I were better at marketing. Biggest problem for a writer who isn't JK Rowling or SK Tremayne is simply getting noticed.

    There is a difference between marketing and advertising

    marketing is making who are seeking products like yours that you have something available that may suit

    advertising is largely playing on social fears to make people buy products they dont need at exorbitant prices often by manufacturing anxiety. A classic example of this is washing powder

    marketing is saying hey we have this washing powder it works

    advertising is saying we have this washing powder and if you dont use it all your whites will be a nasty urine yellow and you will be a social pariah
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    rcs1000 said:

    Just to follow up on Russia, yesterday I had lunch with Simon Henry, the outgoing CFO of Shell. We chatted about what he was going to do next, and the like. And I teased him about something he'd said about oil demand peaking in the next decade, and he said that he was deadly serious: he couldn't see how, in a world where electric cars were getting cheaper, and cheaper, how oil demand didn't peak long before supply.

    That's scary for Saudi Arabia, and Iran, and Russia. What if Peak Oil was all about Peak Demand?

    He may well be right. He's almost certainly right when it comes to the flows of oil around the world. If the US is self-sufficient in fossil fuels by the end of this decade, as may well happen, then certain countries should be very worried indeed.

    On a completely unrelated note, the GCC countries are to introduce 5% VAT next year.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,691
    rcs1000 said:

    Just to follow up on Russia, yesterday I had lunch with Simon Henry, the outgoing CFO of Shell. We chatted about what he was going to do next, and the like. And I teased him about something he'd said about oil demand peaking in the next decade, and he said that he was deadly serious: he couldn't see how, in a world where electric cars were getting cheaper, and cheaper, how oil demand didn't peak long before supply.

    That's scary for Saudi Arabia, and Iran, and Russia. What if Peak Oil was all about Peak Demand?

    Time to trot out the stone age / lack of stones line. I saw a report a couple of days ago making a similar prediction.
  • Options
    PaganPagan Posts: 259

    Pagan said:

    Roger said:

    Pagan said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:



    I predict this match will foreshadow Brexit. Paris will hope to gain from London, the EU will hope to punish the UK, but in a dour, scrappy face-off, Perfidious Albion will somehow engineer a marginal victory - an actual if sketchy gain for London.

    But the spectacle will be so turgid and protracted people will wonder whether it was all worth it, given the modest changes. Et voila.

    Good summary, both Macron and Fillon have said they want to attract business to Paris from London and Verhofstadt and Juncker are clearly in no mood to compromise but I think May will tough it out and get at least a workable deal albeit with the controls on free movement based more on a more marginal change like a job offer requirement than bordering up the Channel Tunnel!
    No one seems to acknowledge how marginalized the UK is at the moment. Europe are laughing at our pretensions. As if they would want Theresa May to speak on their behalf!

    Trying to patronize the French is never a good idea but as they are now the only member of the security council representing 450,000,000 EU members it just sounds laughable,
    Roger why do you hate a country that gave you everything, your education, the ability to pursue your dreams? With all your pretensions to high culture etc. lets face it what have you given back? What great art have you provided us? What life changing philosophies have you endowed to our great nation you so disparage?

    Oh thats right use the right tampon and you too can rollerskate while wearing white jeans!

    You do know their are people on council estates that do better art than that using spray cans?
    Well at least you know the tricks of tampon advertising. The question is have you the confidence to jump out of a car with a camera focused on your bum without a sneaky look at your reflection in a shop window?

    PS I don't do tampon ads other than in SeanT's dreams
    Still advertising which is the bete noire of most folks existence. It adds nothing to human knowledge, it adds nothing to human culture, just conning folks into buying crap they don't need. As a leftie surely you should be ashamed of yourself getting poor folk to spend money on crap they don't need. After all its those thickies on the couch as you think of them most likely to believe adverts I assume
    Advertising does make us aware of new products, and/or alternatives. Don't see how you can have a modern society without it. I know all about building a better mousetrap, but Gray had it right too. 'Full many a flower .... bloom unseen. And waste its fragrance ....
    see my reply to morris
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yet Russia is the largest nation by land area and in effect the number 1 global foreign policy power at the moment, on that chart of exports it is also ahead of India and Spain

    That's from 2015, when the price of oil, gas, coal, etc. were all much, much higher.

    Here's why the Russians should be really scared: http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/rus/all/show/2013/

    Russia is utterly dependent on commodities. It exports practically nothing else. And the oligarchs, fearful of Putin and the lack of the rule of law, pull every ruble they make (from the export of oil, etc.) and put it beyond the reach of the Russian state.

    There is no modern industry - beyond a few small oil & gas suppliers and a few defence companies.

    But what's truly staggering is that the price of commodities has increased 6-12x between Putins's first ascent to power and now. And, outside a few gleaming Moscow boutiques, and the equipment of the Russian military, that money has not helped the average Russian. In possibly the best 20 years that the world's number one commodity exporter could ever have hoped for, it's marginally closed the gap on Italy.
    Wasn't that always the case in Russia ?

    Whether under the Mongols or the Tsars or the CCCP a few held all the wealth and power and the multitude were kept 'in their place' with promises of future paradises.

    I suppose they had a chance to reform things after 1991 but instead of changing to a free market democracy they created the sort of society communist propaganda had accused the West of being (rather than the sort of society the West actually was).
  • Options
    Mr. Pagan, yes, though they're quite closely related.

    Marketing might be me saying my books are all highly rated and available here: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Thaddeus-White/e/B008C6RU98/ whereas advertising would be me paying to get that information included in a banner on a popular blog, or in a mailing list.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Sandpit said:

    justin124 said:

    Sandpit said:

    On the next GE date, unless something happens in the next week or two that derails the A50 vote, there's not going to be a GE before 2019. My reasoning is that it isn't a risk worth taking during the negotiation phase, it would either be before the start, or right at the end when something important gets voted down.

    The secondary consideration is the boundary changes, which are due at the end of 2018. It's difficult to underestimate the importance of this to the Conservative party, the last thing they want is for another five years under the old boundaries - especially if there's the opportunity to have Labour commit ritual suicide by forcing reselections on almost everyone.

    2019 GE is currently 8.2 on Betfair, longer than 2018. I think there's some value there. DYOR as always. https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.125858951

    But it is far from certain that the boundary changes will be approved in Autumn 2018. At least 4 Tory MPs have indicated that they intend to oppose them and others are likely to abstain. The Government's majority is 10 at present - if a by election is called in Thanet South I would expect that to drop to 8.
    I don't disagree, although I doubt Sinn Fein will turn up and there's probably the support of Carswell, so the majority is bigger than it looks on paper - by-elections in the next 20 months not withstanding of course.

    There will be the mother of all three line whips on the boundary vote, any Tory voting against it will be expecting deselection. There's already retirements announced and expect more in the next 18 months, as the revisions come through and the whips and local parties work out who ends up where in the new 600-seat HoC. Anyone looking like a troublemaker can probably expect a seat in the Other Place for their efforts.

    There will be no quarter given to get it through, to the Tories it's the most important vote this Parliament.
    I don't get the impression that Tory MPs would face deselection over this - there were several rebels in the last Parliament and that threat was not made. May might be well advised to abandon plans to reduce the number of MPs and replace it with a standard boundary review.
    I am not sure that the proposed changes favour Carswell.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,792
    rcs1000 said:

    Just to follow up on Russia, yesterday I had lunch with Simon Henry, the outgoing CFO of Shell. We chatted about what he was going to do next, and the like. And I teased him about something he'd said about oil demand peaking in the next decade, and he said that he was deadly serious: he couldn't see how, in a world where electric cars were getting cheaper, and cheaper, how oil demand didn't peak long before supply.

    That's scary for Saudi Arabia, and Iran, and Russia. What if Peak Oil was all about Peak Demand?

    Did you see the latest price for a gigawatt solar plant in the Middle East ?
    https://www.pv-magazine.com/2017/01/30/marubeni-to-develop-worlds-largest-pv-plant-in-uae-according-to-reports/

    Five years is pushing it, not least owing to developing markets, but a decade seems plausible.
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    GeoffM said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    England are going to lose this.

    Somewhat symbolic of a slight shift from England to France in the global league table post Brexit, on some measures France is now the bigger economy and Paris looks set to take at least some business from London now the UK is leaving the single market. Looks like I spoke too soon, England now back in front!
    I predict this match will foreshadow Brexit. Paris will hope to gain from London, the EU will hope to punish the UK, but in a dour, scrappy face-off, Perfidious Albion will somehow engineer a marginal victory - an actual if sketchy gain for London.

    But the spectacle will be so turgid and protracted people will wonder whether it was all worth it, given the modest changes. Et voila.
    Good summary, both Macron and Fillon have said they want to attract business to Paris from London and Verhofstadt and Juncker are clearly in no mood to compromise but I think May will tough it out and get at least a workable deal albeit with the controls on free movement based more on a more marginal change like a job offer requirement than bordering up the Channel Tunnel!
    No one seems to acknowledge how marginalized the UK is at the moment. Europe are laughing at our pretensions. As if they would want Theresa May to speak on their behalf!

    Trying to patronize the French is never a good idea but as they are now the only member of the security council representing 450,000,000 EU members it just sounds laughable,
    It would make sense for the French to hand that Security Council seat over to the EU
    A look at the five largest economic blocs gives as new SC members: China, EU, US, India, Japan - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

    The lack of Russia in the top five and the presence of Japan might be a tiny bit problematic, given the history behind the formation of the UN in 1945.
    I always prefer to think in terms of exports, as to relative world importance.

    Here you go: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exports

    And this was before the oil price collapse. So Russia is a less import economy than Taiwan, Spain or... embarrassingly... Belgium.
    I suspect that Belgium's export value is boosted by the use of Antwerp docks rather than what Belgium actually exports.

    Ditto for Hong Kong, Singapore and the Netherlands.

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Mr. Pagan, yes, though they're quite closely related.

    Marketing might be me saying my books are all highly rated and available here: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Thaddeus-White/e/B008C6RU98/ whereas advertising would be me paying to get that information included in a banner on a popular blog, or in a mailing list.

    Mr Dancer, have not not seen the classic definitions of marketing..?
    https://www.tintdude.com/forum/topic/54393-perfect-explanation-of-marketing/ ;)
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047
    Pagan said:

    Pagan said:

    Roger said:

    Pagan said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:



    I predict this match will foreshadow Brexit. Paris will hope to gain from London, the EU will hope to punish the UK, but in a dour, scrappy face-off, Perfidious Albion will somehow engineer a marginal victory - an actual if sketchy gain for London.

    But the spectacle will be so turgid and protracted people will wonder whether it was all worth it, given the modest changes. Et voila.

    Good summary, both Macron and Fillon have said they want to attract business to Paris from London and Verhofstadt and Juncker are clearly in no mood to compromise but I think May will tough it out and get at least a workable deal albeit with the controls on free movement based more on a more marginal change like a job offer requirement than bordering up the Channel Tunnel!

    ,
    Roger why do you hate a country that gave you everything, your education, the ability to pursue your dreams? With all your pretensions to high culture etc. lets face it what have you given back? What great art have you provided us? What life changing philosophies have you endowed to our great nation you so disparage?

    Oh thats right use the right tampon and you too can rollerskate while wearing white jeans!

    You do know their are people on council estates that do better art than that using spray cans?
    Well at least you know the tricks of tampon advertising. The question is have you the confidence to jump out of a car with a camera focused on your bum without a sneaky look at your reflection in a shop window?

    PS I don't do tampon ads other than in SeanT's dreams
    Still advertising which is the bete noire of most folks existence. It adds nothing to human knowledge, it adds nothing to human culture, just conning folks into buying crap they don't need. As a leftie surely you should be ashamed of yourself getting poor folk to spend money on crap they don't need. After all its those thickies on the couch as you think of them most likely to believe adverts I assume
    Advertising does make us aware of new products, and/or alternatives. Don't see how you can have a modern society without it. I know all about building a better mousetrap, but Gray had it right too. 'Full many a flower .... bloom unseen. And waste its fragrance ....
    see my reply to morris
    Yup, thought about it. Not sure that ther's a line; can be somewhat blurred. Must give some thought to my peasant farmer ancestors, who had the chance of better fertilisers, and their sons who heard of better jobs in the mines.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,060

    I suspect that Belgium's export value is boosted by the use of Antwerp docks rather than what Belgium actually exports.

    Ditto for Hong Kong, Singapore and the Netherlands.

    It is, and you are absolutely right.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205
    On the topic of sports broadcasting, I read a book on Shane Warne and the author reckoned that the improvements in cricket coverage helped to develop the aura of Warne. He said that cricket hadn't long been filmed from both ends when Warne bowled Gatting at Old Trafford in 1993. Jonathan Agnew was at the opposite end to Warne and his radio commentary was something like "and what happened there?"

    The multiple camera angles of the Gatting ball, including a stump camera, revealed the brilliance of that ball in all its glory. Obviously Warne was a fabulous bowler, but I reckon the comprehensive television coverage was to his advantage. Can you imagine what it must have been like watching the Gatting ball or the Chanderpaul ball and having to go in and bat next? Facing Warne was psychological warfare and the television coverage could only have made things harder.
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    PaganPagan Posts: 259

    Mr. Pagan, yes, though they're quite closely related.

    Marketing might be me saying my books are all highly rated and available here: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Thaddeus-White/e/B008C6RU98/ whereas advertising would be me paying to get that information included in a banner on a popular blog, or in a mailing list.

    I believe myself that such items as music and books etc that new ways of discovery will appear, for example I use spotify and I discover new music a lot via other peoples play lists that we share as do many of my friends, I would say since I stopped buying at record shops that the number of bands I listen to regularly has probably quadrupled and some of them are pretty obscure and would be likely things I would never have come across in the record shop days.

    The downside of course is bands will have smaller followings individually but I think we are getting to the point where more bands can make a living compared to a few bands making a fortune
  • Options
    MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    Roger said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Completely off topic: I am thinking of a Canada trip this year - to the Rockies (Jasper /Banff) and Vancouver - I really want to see Vancouver Island.

    If anyone has any great tips, do let me know.

    Thank you!

    Vancover's very nice and a walk to the X File Studios about a mile out of town is worth a trip. Otherwise a car drive up the river to the Ski resort on Whistler mountain is interesting as is the zoo. I was working there for two weeks and I liked it a lot. I didn't have many days off but it had a nice easy paced feel with a lot of sushi restaurants. All in all well worth a trip.
    Make sure when you are in Banff that you do the Columbia ice field trip. https://www.brewster.ca/attractions-sightseeing/columbia-icefield-glacier-adventure/ And in Vancouver I would recommend Stanley Park. And of course the only way to travel between Banff and Vancouver is on the Rocky Mountaineer.
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    Mr. Sandpit, that's rather good.

    A writing technique called the corpse in the Pope's swimming pool (or similar) is a bit similar to subtle or nudge marketing. Basically, you don't want a laundry list of description. If you write "There was a corpse in the Pope's swimming pool" then the mind is drawn to the corpse (understandably), but you've also conveyed the fact the Pope has a swimming pool, in such a way it doesn't seem clunky.

    Can be tricky, of course. An approach I like is mutual dislike or mild racism (in a fantasy context, so that's stuff like disliking elves) because it gets across feelings and world building in an entertaining, true-to-life sort of way.
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    PaganPagan Posts: 259

    Pagan said:

    Pagan said:

    Roger said:

    Pagan said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:



    Good summary, both Macron and Fillon have said they want to attract business to Paris from London and Verhofstadt and Juncker are clearly in no mood to compromise but I think May will tough it out and get at least a workable deal albeit with the controls on free movement based more on a more marginal change like a job offer requirement than bordering up the Channel Tunnel!


    ,
    Roger why do you hate a country that gave you everything, your education, the ability to pursue your dreams? With all your pretensions to high culture etc. lets face it what have you given back? What great art have you provided us? What life changing philosophies have you endowed to our great nation you so disparage?

    Oh thats right use the right tampon and you too can rollerskate while wearing white jeans!

    You do know their are people on council estates that do better art than that using spray cans?
    Well at least you know the tricks of tampon advertising. The question is have you the confidence to jump out of a car with a camera focused on your bum without a sneaky look at your reflection in a shop window?

    PS I don't do tampon ads other than in SeanT's dreams
    Still advertising which is the bete noire of most folks existence. It adds nothing to human knowledge, it adds nothing to human culture, just conning folks into buying crap they don't need. As a leftie surely you should be ashamed of yourself getting poor folk to spend money on crap they don't need. After all its those thickies on the couch as you think of them most likely to believe adverts I assume
    Advertising does make us aware of new products, and/or alternatives. Don't see how you can have a modern society without it. I know all about building a better mousetrap, but Gray had it right too. 'Full many a flower .... bloom unseen. And waste its fragrance ....
    see my reply to morris
    Yup, thought about it. Not sure that ther's a line; can be somewhat blurred. Must give some thought to my peasant farmer ancestors, who had the chance of better fertilisers, and their sons who heard of better jobs in the mines.
    Not disputing the line is blurred. There is a spectrum from "Useful information about a product I may need" to "Creating a need for a product via fostering social anxiety"
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047
    MrsB said:

    Roger said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Completely off topic: I am thinking of a Canada trip this year - to the Rockies (Jasper /Banff) and Vancouver - I really want to see Vancouver Island.

    If anyone has any great tips, do let me know.

    Thank you!

    Vancover's very nice and a walk to the X File Studios about a mile out of town is worth a trip. Otherwise a car drive up the river to the Ski resort on Whistler mountain is interesting as is the zoo. I was working there for two weeks and I liked it a lot. I didn't have many days off but it had a nice easy paced feel with a lot of sushi restaurants. All in all well worth a trip.
    Make sure when you are in Banff that you do the Columbia ice field trip. https://www.brewster.ca/attractions-sightseeing/columbia-icefield-glacier-adventure/ And in Vancouver I would recommend Stanley Park. And of course the only way to travel between Banff and Vancouver is on the Rocky Mountaineer.
    Seconded
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    Mr. Pagan, yes, but sadly there's not an equivalent for authors of a live performance of music.
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    PaganPagan Posts: 259

    Mr. Pagan, yes, but sadly there's not an equivalent for authors of a live performance of music.

    Have you considered creating something for it? Sounds like an opportunity. There must be many authors in your situation. Perhaps talk to each other and see what idea's you can come up with?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just to follow up on Russia, yesterday I had lunch with Simon Henry, the outgoing CFO of Shell. We chatted about what he was going to do next, and the like. And I teased him about something he'd said about oil demand peaking in the next decade, and he said that he was deadly serious: he couldn't see how, in a world where electric cars were getting cheaper, and cheaper, how oil demand didn't peak long before supply.

    That's scary for Saudi Arabia, and Iran, and Russia. What if Peak Oil was all about Peak Demand?

    Did you see the latest price for a gigawatt solar plant in the Middle East ?
    https://www.pv-magazine.com/2017/01/30/marubeni-to-develop-worlds-largest-pv-plant-in-uae-according-to-reports/

    Five years is pushing it, not least owing to developing markets, but a decade seems plausible.
    There's a lot going on with solar (and nuclear) in the UAE at the moment. The 2020 Dubai Expo will be powered entirely by solar, the first phase of which opens this year. The key has been the development of panels that don't need cleaning of sand every few days.
    http://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/second-phase-of-dubais-solar-park-to-power-30000-homes-starting-april
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    scoopscoop Posts: 64
    Pagan said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    England are going to lose this.

    Somewhat symbolic of a slight shift from England to France in the global league table post Brexit, on some measures France is now the bigger economy and Paris looks set to take at least some business from London now the UK is leaving the single market. Looks like I spoke too soon, England now back in front!
    I predict this match will foreshadow Brexit. Paris will hope to gain from London, the EU will hope to punish the UK, but in a dour, scrappy face-off, Perfidious Albion will somehow engineer a marginal victory - an actual if sketchy gain for London.

    But the spectacle will be so turgid and protracted people will wonder whether it was all worth it, given the modest changes. Et voila.
    Good summary, both Macron and Fillon have said they want to attract business to Paris from London and Verhofstadt and Juncker are clearly in no mood to compromise but I think May will tough it out and get at least a workable deal albeit with the controls on free movement based more on a more marginal change like a job offer requirement than bordering up the Channel Tunnel!
    No one seems to acknowledge how marginalized the UK is at the moment. Europe are laughing at our pretensions. As if they would want Theresa May to speak on their behalf!

    Trying to patronize the French is never a good idea but as they are now the only member of the security council representing 450,000,000 EU members it just sounds laughable,
    Roger why do you hate a country that gave you everything, your education, the ability to pursue your dreams? With all your pretensions to high culture etc. lets face it what have you given back? What great art have you provided us? What life changing philosophies have you endowed to our great nation you so disparage?

    Oh thats right use the right tampon and you too can rollerskate while wearing white jeans!

    You do know their are people on council estates that do better art than that using spray cans?
    Priceless?
  • Options
    Mr. Pagan, tricky (also as Morris Dancer does not live a double life as Captain Extrovert). There is plenty of collaborative/co-operative feeling amongst writers, which is good, but reading a book is fundamentally different to listening to music.

    I'm trying to shift my approach somewhat to writing more short stories (as well as small but guaranteed income, they can also act as adverts, effectively), and just today blogged about a serial I'm going to try my hand at: http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/02/a-delicious-new-serial.html

    Anyway, that's enough blathering about myself. I'd best be off.
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    rcs1000 said:

    I suspect that Belgium's export value is boosted by the use of Antwerp docks rather than what Belgium actually exports.

    Ditto for Hong Kong, Singapore and the Netherlands.

    It is, and you are absolutely right.
    It would be interesting to have a list of what proportion of each country's exports are of one particular type.

    It would help show how vulnerable each country is to economic and technological change.
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    PaganPagan Posts: 259

    Mr. Pagan, tricky (also as Morris Dancer does not live a double life as Captain Extrovert). There is plenty of collaborative/co-operative feeling amongst writers, which is good, but reading a book is fundamentally different to listening to music.

    I'm trying to shift my approach somewhat to writing more short stories (as well as small but guaranteed income, they can also act as adverts, effectively), and just today blogged about a serial I'm going to try my hand at: http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/02/a-delicious-new-serial.html

    Anyway, that's enough blathering about myself. I'd best be off.

    I will have a think as a book reader and see if I can come up with something that would attract me and send you a pm
  • Options
    75% "don't know" for Keir Starmer. Is that name recognition - or lack thereof?
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    rcs1000 said:

    Just to follow up on Russia, yesterday I had lunch with Simon Henry, the outgoing CFO of Shell. We chatted about what he was going to do next, and the like. And I teased him about something he'd said about oil demand peaking in the next decade, and he said that he was deadly serious: he couldn't see how, in a world where electric cars were getting cheaper, and cheaper, how oil demand didn't peak long before supply.

    That's scary for Saudi Arabia, and Iran, and Russia. What if Peak Oil was all about Peak Demand?

    If you just take a look at the World solar insolation map, you will find Saudi Arabia, Iran and many of the oil producing countries are sitting pretty. Not only have they got the sun but vast acres of emptiness. That doesn't apply to Russia.

    Russia does have vast landmass but the cost of transmission will be huge. For Saudis and others , empty hot desert is just round the corner.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    edited February 2017
    justin124 said:

    Sandpit said:

    justin124 said:

    Sandpit said:

    On the next GE date, unless something happens in the next week or two that derails the A50 vote, there's not going to be a GE before 2019. My reasoning is that it isn't a risk worth taking during the negotiation phase, it would either be before the start, or right at the end when something important gets voted down.

    The secondary consideration is the boundary changes, which are due at the end of 2018. It's difficult to underestimate the importance of this to the Conservative party, the last thing they want is for another five years under the old boundaries - especially if there's the opportunity to have Labour commit ritual suicide by forcing reselections on almost everyone.

    2019 GE is currently 8.2 on Betfair, longer than 2018. I think there's some value there. DYOR as always. https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.125858951

    But it is far from certain that the boundary changes will be approved in Autumn 2018. At least 4 Tory MPs have indicated that they intend to oppose them and others are likely to abstain. The Government's majority is 10 at present - if a by election is called in Thanet South I would expect that to drop to 8.
    I don't disagree, although I doubt Sinn Fein will turn up and there's probably the support of Carswell, so the majority is bigger than it looks on paper - by-elections in the next 20 months not withstanding of course.

    There will be the mother of all three line whips on the boundary vote, any Tory voting against it will be expecting deselection. There's already retirements announced and expect more in the next 18 months, as the revisions come through and the whips and local parties work out who ends up where in the new 600-seat HoC. Anyone looking like a troublemaker can probably expect a seat in the Other Place for their efforts.

    There will be no quarter given to get it through, to the Tories it's the most important vote this Parliament.
    I don't get the impression that Tory MPs would face deselection over this - there were several rebels in the last Parliament and that threat was not made. May might be well advised to abandon plans to reduce the number of MPs and replace it with a standard boundary review.
    I am not sure that the proposed changes favour Carswell.
    There was no chance of the boundaries passing last time, thanks to the perfidious Lib Dems. This time it's for real, and anyone voting for personal preference against the wider good of the party is likely to be in serious trouble if the boundaries don't pass.

    It's too late now to redraw with 650 before the scheduled 2020 election.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205

    75% "don't know" for Keir Starmer. Is that name recognition - or lack thereof?

    We could do with two categories: "I don't know what I think of him/her" and "I've never heard of that person." It would also be nice to see a control name!
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited February 2017

    75% "don't know" for Keir Starmer. Is that name recognition - or lack thereof?

    Don't you worry. It will come soon. How many know David Davis ? He was once the about-to-be-leader of the Tory party.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
    Runners and riders for West of England Mayor.

    Conservative - Tim Bowles, a South Gloucs Councillor.
    Green - Darren Hall, ex candidate Bristol West 2015.
    Labour - Lesley Mansell a parish Councillor.
    Lib Dem - Stephen Williams, former Bristol West MP and junior Minister in Coalition.

    Not sure how this is going to work in tandem with an elected Mayor in Bristol.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,047
    tlg86 said:

    75% "don't know" for Keir Starmer. Is that name recognition - or lack thereof?

    We could do with two categories: "I don't know what I think of him/her" and "I've never heard of that person." It would also be nice to see a control name!
    Who control name? Queen Elizabeth II.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,894
    edited February 2017
    Pagan said:

    Roger said:

    Pagan said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:



    I predict this match will foreshadow Brexit. Paris will hope to gain from London, the EU will hope to punish the UK, but in a dour, scrappy face-off, Perfidious Albion will somehow engineer a marginal victory - an actual if sketchy gain for London.

    But the spectacle will be so turgid and protracted people will wonder whether it was all worth it, given the modest changes. Et voila.

    Trying to patronize the French is never a good idea but as they are now the only member of the security council representing 450,000,000 EU members it just sounds laughable,
    Oh thats right use the right tampon and you too can rollerskate while wearing white jeans!

    You do know their are people on council estates that do better art than that using spray cans?
    Well at least you know the tricks of tampon advertising. The question is have you the confidence to jump out of a car with a camera focused on your bum without a sneaky look at your reflection in a shop window?

    PS I don't do tampon ads other than in SeanT's dreams
    Still advertising which is the bete noire of most folks existence. It adds nothing to human knowledge, it adds nothing to human culture, just conning folks into buying crap they don't need. As a leftie surely you should be ashamed of yourself getting poor folk to spend money on crap they don't need. After all its those thickies on the couch as you think of them most likely to believe adverts I assume
    I heard an interesting advertising story the other day...... In 1959 VW were looking for an agency in New York to sell their Beetle. It was only 15 years after the war and America were into BIG. Big industry big cars big country.....What's more things German weren't flavour of the month.

    They looked around the agencies and most of the blue chips weren't interested. A small agency from the wrong side of the tracks founded by two Jews and an Irishman decided to go for it. They pitched on the condition that if they were chosen their ads would run unaltered.

    The result was that Doyle Dane Burnbach became the most famous agency in the world and their work on the Beetle not only revolutionised advertising but it is claimed was on its own responsible for turning German industry into what it is today.

    The campaign was based on the revolutionary concept. 'Telling the truth'. Advertising was never the same again. The campaign was 'Think Small' and it changed the zeitgeist and made the VW Beetle the best selling car in the world. The irony of it all was that just 15 years after the war it was largely the work of a Jew Bill Bernbach the father of modern advertising.

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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205

    tlg86 said:

    75% "don't know" for Keir Starmer. Is that name recognition - or lack thereof?

    We could do with two categories: "I don't know what I think of him/her" and "I've never heard of that person." It would also be nice to see a control name!
    Who control name? Queen Elizabeth II.
    Nah, a made up name to see who's paying attention.
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    dr_spyn said:

    Runners and riders for West of England Mayor.

    Conservative - Tim Bowles, a South Gloucs Councillor.
    Green - Darren Hall, ex candidate Bristol West 2015.
    Labour - Lesley Mansell a parish Councillor.
    Lib Dem - Stephen Williams, former Bristol West MP and junior Minister in Coalition.

    Not sure how this is going to work in tandem with an elected Mayor in Bristol.

    About as well as this did:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avon_County_Council

    Still it must be in the running for most idiotic new job title
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,519

    Mr. Pagan, yes, though they're quite closely related.

    Marketing might be me saying my books are all highly rated and available here: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Thaddeus-White/e/B008C6RU98/ whereas advertising would be me paying to get that information included in a banner on a popular blog, or in a mailing list.

    Personally I'd say they're both advertising, or certainly promotion, just one's free. Marketing really goes further to the core. Product design, price, target market, brand/product name, are all facets of the marketing process as well as advertising and promotion.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,691
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just to follow up on Russia, yesterday I had lunch with Simon Henry, the outgoing CFO of Shell. We chatted about what he was going to do next, and the like. And I teased him about something he'd said about oil demand peaking in the next decade, and he said that he was deadly serious: he couldn't see how, in a world where electric cars were getting cheaper, and cheaper, how oil demand didn't peak long before supply.

    That's scary for Saudi Arabia, and Iran, and Russia. What if Peak Oil was all about Peak Demand?

    Did you see the latest price for a gigawatt solar plant in the Middle East ?
    https://www.pv-magazine.com/2017/01/30/marubeni-to-develop-worlds-largest-pv-plant-in-uae-according-to-reports/

    Five years is pushing it, not least owing to developing markets, but a decade seems plausible.
    There's a lot going on with solar (and nuclear) in the UAE at the moment. The 2020 Dubai Expo will be powered entirely by solar, the first phase of which opens this year. The key has been the development of panels that don't need cleaning of sand every few days.
    http://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/second-phase-of-dubais-solar-park-to-power-30000-homes-starting-april
    But let's not forget that Dubai is building a new coal fired power station!
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,519
    rcs1000 said:

    GeoffM said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    England are going to lose this.

    Somewhat symbolic of a slight shift from England to France in the global league table post Brexit, on some measures France is now the bigger economy and Paris looks set to take at least some business from London now the UK is leaving the single market. Looks like I spoke too soon, England now back in front!
    I predict this match will foreshadow Brexit. Paris will hope to gain from London, the EU will hope to punish the UK, but in a dour, scrappy face-off, Perfidious Albion will somehow engineer a marginal victory - an actual if sketchy gain for London.

    But the spectacle will be so turgid and protracted people will wonder whether it was all worth it, given the modest changes. Et voila.
    Good summary, both Macron and Fillon have said they want to attract business to Paris from London and Verhofstadt and Juncker are clearly in no mood to compromise but I think May will tough it out and get at least a workable deal albeit with the controls on free movement based more on a more marginal change like a job offer requirement than bordering up the Channel Tunnel!
    No one seems to acknowledge how marginalized the UK is at the moment. Europe are laughing at our pretensions. As if they would want Theresa May to speak on their behalf!

    Trying to patronize the French is never a good idea but as they are now the only member of the security council representing 450,000,000 EU members it just sounds laughable,
    It would make sense for the French to hand that Security Council seat over to the EU
    A look at the five largest economic blocs gives as new SC members: China, EU, US, India, Japan - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

    The lack of Russia in the top five and the presence of Japan might be a tiny bit problematic, given the history behind the formation of the UN in 1945.
    I always prefer to think in terms of exports, as to relative world importance.

    Here you go: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exports

    And this was before the oil price collapse. So Russia is a less import economy than Taiwan, Spain or... embarrassingly... Belgium.
    I don't know that exports is the best measure. If the point of exports is to make money, serving the domestic market must be just as important, as it displaces a foreign import.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Sandpit said:

    justin124 said:

    Sandpit said:

    justin124 said:

    Sandpit said:

    On the next GE date, unless something happens in the next week or two that derails the A50 vote, there's not going to be a GE before 2019. My reasoning is that it isn't a risk worth taking during the negotiation phase, it would either be before the start, or right at the end when something important gets voted down.

    The secondary consideration is the boundary changes, which are due at the end of 2018. It's difficult to underestimate the importance of this to the Conservative party, the last thing they want is for another five years under the old boundaries - especially if there's the opportunity to have Labour commit ritual suicide by forcing reselections on almost everyone.

    2019 GE is currently 8.2 on Betfair, longer than 2018. I think there's some value there. DYOR as always. https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.125858951

    But it is far from certain that the boundary changes will be approved in Autumn 2018. At least 4 Tory MPs have indicated that they intend to oppose them and others are likely to abstain. The Government's majority is 10 at present - if a by election is called in Thanet South I would expect that to drop to 8.
    I don't disagree, although I doubt Sinn Fein will turn up and there's probably the support of Carswell, so the majority is bigger than it looks on paper - by-elections in the next 20 months not withstanding of course.

    There will be the mother of all three line whips on the boundary vote, any Tory voting against it will be expecting deselection. There's already retirements announced and expect more in the next 18 months, as the revisions come through and the whips and local parties work out who ends up where in the new 600-seat HoC. Anyone looking like a troublemaker can probably expect a seat in the Other Place for their efforts.

    There will be no quarter given to get it through, to the Tories it's the most important vote this Parliament.
    I don't get the impression that Tory MPs would face deselection over this - there were several rebels in the last Parliament and that threat was not made. May might be well advised to abandon plans to reduce the number of MPs and replace it with a standard boundary review.
    I am not sure that the proposed changes favour Carswell.
    There was no chance of the boundaries passing last time, thanks to the perfidious Lib Dems. This time it's for real, and anyone voting for personal preference against the wider good of the party is likely to be in serious trouble if the boundaries don't pass.

    It's too late now to redraw with 650 before the scheduled 2020 election.
    It is not too late now - but it will be by Autumn 2018!
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just to follow up on Russia, yesterday I had lunch with Simon Henry, the outgoing CFO of Shell. We chatted about what he was going to do next, and the like. And I teased him about something he'd said about oil demand peaking in the next decade, and he said that he was deadly serious: he couldn't see how, in a world where electric cars were getting cheaper, and cheaper, how oil demand didn't peak long before supply.

    That's scary for Saudi Arabia, and Iran, and Russia. What if Peak Oil was all about Peak Demand?

    Did you see the latest price for a gigawatt solar plant in the Middle East ?
    https://www.pv-magazine.com/2017/01/30/marubeni-to-develop-worlds-largest-pv-plant-in-uae-according-to-reports/

    Five years is pushing it, not least owing to developing markets, but a decade seems plausible.
    There's a lot going on with solar (and nuclear) in the UAE at the moment. The 2020 Dubai Expo will be powered entirely by solar, the first phase of which opens this year. The key has been the development of panels that don't need cleaning of sand every few days.
    http://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/second-phase-of-dubais-solar-park-to-power-30000-homes-starting-april
    But let's not forget that Dubai is building a new coal fired power station!
    Coal, really? First I've heard of it. Plenty of oil and gas powered ones though.
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    Opinium poll

    Con 37 (-1) Lab 30 (nc) UKIP 14 (nc) Lib Dems 8 (+1) Greens 5 (+1)

    Fieldwork 31/1 - 3/2

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/04/two-thirds-of-britons-believe-trump-is-threat-to-international-stability
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,894
    surbiton said:

    75% "don't know" for Keir Starmer. Is that name recognition - or lack thereof?

    Don't you worry. It will come soon. How many know David Davis ? He was once the about-to-be-leader of the Tory party.
    KSWNBPM or LABOUR LEADER
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    PM gives 'dusty, chilly' Chequers a wide berth

    "The country mansion thing isn't really her scene. She's much more of a double-glazing and central heating sort of Tory. She likes being at home in the constituency."
    http://www.pressreader.com/uk/the-daily-telegraph/20170204/282548723005902
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    The Lib Dem price for Stoke *on Betfair does seem to be coming in a bit now.

    This could be because the Lib Dems seem finally to have got the wind their sails in Stoke. I am receiving lots of encouraging messages. Has anybody else experienced this?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just to follow up on Russia, yesterday I had lunch with Simon Henry, the outgoing CFO of Shell. We chatted about what he was going to do next, and the like. And I teased him about something he'd said about oil demand peaking in the next decade, and he said that he was deadly serious: he couldn't see how, in a world where electric cars were getting cheaper, and cheaper, how oil demand didn't peak long before supply.

    That's scary for Saudi Arabia, and Iran, and Russia. What if Peak Oil was all about Peak Demand?

    If you just take a look at the World solar insolation map, you will find Saudi Arabia, Iran and many of the oil producing countries are sitting pretty. Not only have they got the sun but vast acres of emptiness. That doesn't apply to Russia.

    Russia does have vast landmass but the cost of transmission will be huge. For Saudis and others , empty hot desert is just round the corner.
    Russia still has plenty of gas though and also vast lakes and seas for hydroelectric power which is rather less available in the desert
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    edited February 2017

    Opinium poll

    Con 37 (-1) Lab 30 (nc) UKIP 14 (nc) Lib Dems 8 (+1) Greens 5 (+1)

    Fieldwork 31/1 - 3/2

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/04/two-thirds-of-britons-believe-trump-is-threat-to-international-stability

    It also reveals that more than four in 10 people (44%) believe Trump will be an awful president, with a further one in ten believing he will be below average. A mere 6% believe Trump will be a great president.
    However, Britons are more divided on the issue of Trump’s state visit to the UK, due to be hosted by the Queen this year. While a slim majority (53%) believe the trip should either be delayed until his now-suspended 120-day travel ban on seven Muslim-majority countries lapses (25%) or cancelled outright (28%), 36% believe the visit should go ahead regardless. Parliament will hold a debate on calls to cancel the state visit on 20 February after more than 1.8 million people signed a petition in support of scrapping or downgrading the invitation.

    The results also suggest that Theresa May’s move to forge a close partnership with the new White House administration could risk alienating a substantial portion of the British public. Though 50% of those surveyed believe the US is Britain’s most important global ally, less than a third (29%) think the special relationship will be stronger under Trump’s presidency than it was under Obama’s. However, four in 10 voters agreed “Brexit means we have no choice but to keep strong ties with the US”, and 37% believe Trump is “a friend of Britain”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/04/two-thirds-of-britons-believe-trump-is-threat-to-international-stability
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited February 2017
    Roger said:

    I heard an interesting advertising story the other day...... In 1959 VW were looking for an agency in New York to sell their Beetle. It was only 15 years after the war and America were into BIG. Big industry big cars big country.....What's more things German weren't flavour of the month.

    They looked around the agencies and most of the blue chips weren't interested. A small agency from the wrong side of the tracks founded by two Jews and an Irishman decided to go for it. They pitched on the condition that if they were chosen their ads would run unaltered.

    The result was that Doyle Dane Burnbach became the most famous agency in the world and their work on the Beetle not only revolutionised advertising but it is claimed was on its own responsible for turning German industry into what it is today.

    The campaign was based on the revolutionary concept. 'Telling the truth'. Advertising was never the same again. The campaign was 'Think Small' and it changed the zeitgeist and made the VW Beetle the best selling car in the world. The irony of it all was that just 15 years after the war it was largely the work of a Jew Bill Bernbach the father of modern advertising.


    And a British guy who rescued VW from the ashes of the war.

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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    justin124 said:



    It is not too late now - but it will be by Autumn 2018!

    I can imagine Plaid Cymru might support the boundary changes

    The boundary changes are about as good for PC as is possible. The have a reasonable chance of keeping three seats, and the changes in Ceredigion favour them over the LibDems.

    If the Govt toss in a bribe (some more devolved powers to balance the reduction in Welsh seats), my bet is that PC will support it.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131
    PClipp said:

    The Lib Dem price for Stoke *on Betfair does seem to be coming in a bit now.

    This could be because the Lib Dems seem finally to have got the wind their sails in Stoke. I am receiving lots of encouraging messages. Has anybody else experienced this?

    If the LD voteshare in Stoke increases by as much as it did in Sleaford, which voted Leave by a similar margin, they could reach 10% yes!
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
    edited February 2017
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,691
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Just to follow up on Russia, yesterday I had lunch with Simon Henry, the outgoing CFO of Shell. We chatted about what he was going to do next, and the like. And I teased him about something he'd said about oil demand peaking in the next decade, and he said that he was deadly serious: he couldn't see how, in a world where electric cars were getting cheaper, and cheaper, how oil demand didn't peak long before supply.

    That's scary for Saudi Arabia, and Iran, and Russia. What if Peak Oil was all about Peak Demand?

    Did you see the latest price for a gigawatt solar plant in the Middle East ?
    https://www.pv-magazine.com/2017/01/30/marubeni-to-develop-worlds-largest-pv-plant-in-uae-according-to-reports/

    Five years is pushing it, not least owing to developing markets, but a decade seems plausible.
    There's a lot going on with solar (and nuclear) in the UAE at the moment. The 2020 Dubai Expo will be powered entirely by solar, the first phase of which opens this year. The key has been the development of panels that don't need cleaning of sand every few days.
    http://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/second-phase-of-dubais-solar-park-to-power-30000-homes-starting-april
    But let's not forget that Dubai is building a new coal fired power station!
    Coal, really? First I've heard of it. Plenty of oil and gas powered ones though.
    http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Hassyan_Clean-Coal_Power_Project

    2400MW - plenty of CO2
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    I mock the hard left here for saying likes of Tony Blair and Laurie Penny are Tories, but over in America, Trumpers are saying Judge James Robart was appointed by that well known liberal, George W Bush
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,360
    Scott_P said:
    Quite a big gap between Opinium (last election redux) and YouGov (huge Tory triumph). Do we know what differences in assumptions they make?
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Scott_P said:
    Quite a big gap between Opinium (last election redux) and YouGov (huge Tory triumph). Do we know what differences in assumptions they make?

    Opinium assumes they're working for the Guardian....

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,563
    edited February 2017

    Scott_P said:
    Quite a big gap between Opinium (last election redux) and YouGov (huge Tory triumph). Do we know what differences in assumptions they make?

    Opinium assumes they're working for the Guardian....

    Seriously, Opinium called the EUReferendum right, as they did the London Mayoral election, so stop smearing.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Scott_P said:
    Quite a big gap between Opinium (last election redux) and YouGov (huge Tory triumph). Do we know what differences in assumptions they make?

    Opinium assumes they're working for the Guardian....

    Seriously, Opinium called the EUReferendum right, as they did the London Mayoral election, so stop smearing.

    I think a little humour directed at the polling companies is perfectly reasonable.

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    Scott_P said:
    Quite a big gap between Opinium (last election redux) and YouGov (huge Tory triumph). Do we know what differences in assumptions they make?
    They have a slightly different turnout filter to others.
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    HYUFD said:

    PClipp said:

    The Lib Dem price for Stoke *on Betfair does seem to be coming in a bit now.
    This could be because the Lib Dems seem finally to have got the wind their sails in Stoke. I am receiving lots of encouraging messages. Has anybody else experienced this?

    If the LD voteshare in Stoke increases by as much as it did in Sleaford, which voted Leave by a similar margin, they could reach 10% yes!
    Reports from the ground say that the Lib Dem campaign in Stoke is way ahead of that in Sleaford, which was of course overshadowed by the Lib Dem effort in Richmond.

    And with a three-way split among the Leave voters, the Lib Dem and Remain campaign could well come through the middle. Don`t give up hope yet for the Lib Dem campaign, Mr HYUHD!!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,131

    Scott_P said:
    Quite a big gap between Opinium (last election redux) and YouGov (huge Tory triumph). Do we know what differences in assumptions they make?

    Opinium assumes they're working for the Guardian....

    Seriously, Opinium called the EUReferendum right, as they did the London Mayoral election, so stop smearing.
    Their final election 2015 poll had the Tories on 35% and Labour on 34% so they overestimated Labour by about 3% and underestimated the Tories. They got UKIP and the LDs spot on though which is not good for the yellows
    http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/final-poll-from-opinium-before-election.html
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    On the Opinium figures Labour should hold Copeland quite comfortably.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,995
    edited February 2017
    Cyclefree said:

    Completely off topic: I am thinking of a Canada trip this year - to the Rockies (Jasper /Banff) and Vancouver - I really want to see Vancouver Island.

    If anyone has any great tips, do let me know.

    Thank you!

    Cyclefree said:

    Completely off topic: I am thinking of a Canada trip this year - to the Rockies (Jasper /Banff) and Vancouver - I really want to see Vancouver Island.

    If anyone has any great tips, do let me know.

    Thank you!

    Miss Cyclefree. Sorry for the late reply, but I was lucky enough to go to High School on Vancouver Island. 4 quick tips. 1 take the ferry to the Island. The views are something else! The flight, by contrast is a 1/2 hour hop of the kind you can take anywhere. Equally, the train to Jasper/Banff is one of the great train journeys of the World (if you have 24 hours to spare). Be careful in Vancouver. It is not particularly dangerous by US standards, but due care and attention is necessary. If you do go the Island try to get "up Island" (not just for whale watching which can be pricey and frustrating...whales don't always co-operate)...it is remote and quite breathtaking!
This discussion has been closed.