The Lib Dem price for Stoke *on Betfair does seem to be coming in a bit now. This could be because the Lib Dems seem finally to have got the wind their sails in Stoke. I am receiving lots of encouraging messages. Has anybody else experienced this?
If the LD voteshare in Stoke increases by as much as it did in Sleaford, which voted Leave by a similar margin, they could reach 10% yes!
Reports from the ground say that the Lib Dem campaign in Stoke is way ahead of that in Sleaford, which was of course overshadowed by the Lib Dem effort in Richmond.
And with a three-way split among the Leave voters, the Lib Dem and Remain campaign could well come through the middle. Don`t give up hope yet for the Lib Dem campaign, Mr HYUHD!!
That was my thinking. I got some on on BF at close to 500 so my book is all green (£35 lab/ukip 200 Tory and 500 ld) hopefully those will increase as we get to 23rd
A Tory 7% lead would be a swing of 0.2% from Lab to Con since May 2015. They would gain one seat - Chester - without any account being taken of first time incumbency.
A Tory 7% lead would be a swing of 0.2% from Lab to Con since May 2015. They would gain one seat - Chester - without any account being taken for first time incumbency.
Remind me what the seat changes would have been in 2015 if UNS had been accurate, especially in England?
I mock the hard left here for saying likes of Tony Blair and Laurie Penny are Tories, but over in America, Trumpers are saying Judge James Robart was appointed by that well known liberal, George W Bush
And not metaphorically, they *actually* think that's what Dubya is.
Has anyone pushed the idea that Trump is essentially a NY liberal recently?
I mock the hard left here for saying likes of Tony Blair and Laurie Penny are Tories, but over in America, Trumpers are saying Judge James Robart was appointed by that well known liberal, George W Bush
And not metaphorically, they *actually* think that's what Dubya is.
Has anyone pushed the idea that Trump is essentially a NY liberal recently?
All I can think of Isaiah 11:6
As for Trump being a New York Liberal, I have to admit that was a hope of many of us, hoping he wouldn't be as bad as we feared.
I mock the hard left here for saying likes of Tony Blair and Laurie Penny are Tories, but over in America, Trumpers are saying Judge James Robart was appointed by that well known liberal, George W Bush
And not metaphorically, they *actually* think that's what Dubya is.
Has anyone pushed the idea that Trump is essentially a NY liberal recently?
All I can think of Isaiah 11:6
As for Trump being a New York Liberal, I have to admit that was a hope of many of us, hoping he wouldn't be as bad as we feared.
Turns out he's even worse than feared.
To quote the Metal God Ozzy Osbourne, who ends his Black Sabbath career tonight
"Now I have you with me, under my power Our love grows stronger now with every hour Look into my eyes, you'll see who I am My name is Lucifer, please take my hand"
A Tory 7% lead would be a swing of 0.2% from Lab to Con since May 2015. They would gain one seat - Chester - without any account being taken of first time incumbency.
Still unprecedented for any PM to gain seats from the principal opposition after two terms of their party in power and this is the worst current poll for the Tories
A Tory 7% lead would be a swing of 0.2% from Lab to Con since May 2015. They would gain one seat - Chester - without any account being taken for first time incumbency.
Remind me what the seat changes would have been in 2015 if UNS had been accurate, especially in England?
I don't have those details immediately to hand. The Tories greatly outperformed in the marginal seats gained from Labour in 2010 - with the exception of London and parts of the North West.Strong evidence was there of a first term incumbency boost for sitting MPs. That factor might help Labour next time to defend the gains made in England in 2015. I await with interest the regional breakdown of the poll. Will there be further evidence of a big swing to the Tories in Scotland? If so, that could imply a pro- Labour swing in England.
The Lib Dem price for Stoke *on Betfair does seem to be coming in a bit now. This could be because the Lib Dems seem finally to have got the wind their sails in Stoke. I am receiving lots of encouraging messages. Has anybody else experienced this?
If the LD voteshare in Stoke increases by as much as it did in Sleaford, which voted Leave by a similar margin, they could reach 10% yes!
Reports from the ground say that the Lib Dem campaign in Stoke is way ahead of that in Sleaford, which was of course overshadowed by the Lib Dem effort in Richmond.
And with a three-way split among the Leave voters, the Lib Dem and Remain campaign could well come through the middle. Don`t give up hope yet for the Lib Dem campaign, Mr HYUHD!!
We have had two polls from Stoke, both of which put the LDs fourth and UKIP taking the seat, the best they can probably hope for is to overtake the Tories for third, which one poll had them close to doing
The Lib Dem price for Stoke *on Betfair does seem to be coming in a bit now. This could be because the Lib Dems seem finally to have got the wind their sails in Stoke. I am receiving lots of encouraging messages. Has anybody else experienced this?
If the LD voteshare in Stoke increases by as much as it did in Sleaford, which voted Leave by a similar margin, they could reach 10% yes!
Reports from the ground say that the Lib Dem campaign in Stoke is way ahead of that in Sleaford, which was of course overshadowed by the Lib Dem effort in Richmond.
And with a three-way split among the Leave voters, the Lib Dem and Remain campaign could well come through the middle. Don`t give up hope yet for the Lib Dem campaign, Mr HYUHD!!
We have had two polls from Stoke, both of which put the LDs fourth and UKIP taking the seat, the best they can probably hope for is to overtake the Tories for third, which one poll had them close to doing
A Tory 7% lead would be a swing of 0.2% from Lab to Con since May 2015. They would gain one seat - Chester - without any account being taken for first time incumbency.
Remind me what the seat changes would have been in 2015 if UNS had been accurate, especially in England?
I don't have those details immediately to hand. The Tories greatly outperformed in the marginal seats gained from Labour in 2010 - with the exception of London and parts of the North West.Strong evidence was there of a first term incumbency boost for sitting MPs. That factor might help Labour next time to defend the gains made in England in 2015. I await with interest the regional breakdown of the poll. Will there be further evidence of a big swing to the Tories in Scotland? If so, that could imply a pro- Labour swing in England.
Corbyn is polling 4% worse in this Opinium poll than Miliband did in his final Opinium poll and given there was a swing to Labour in England in 2015 there has almost certainly been a swing to the Tories in England now
The Lib Dem price for Stoke *on Betfair does seem to be coming in a bit now. This could be because the Lib Dems seem finally to have got the wind their sails in Stoke. I am receiving lots of encouraging messages. Has anybody else experienced this?
If the LD voteshare in Stoke increases by as much as it did in Sleaford, which voted Leave by a similar margin, they could reach 10% yes!
Reports from the ground say that the Lib Dem campaign in Stoke is way ahead of that in Sleaford, which was of course overshadowed by the Lib Dem effort in Richmond.
And with a three-way split among the Leave voters, the Lib Dem and Remain campaign could well come through the middle. Don`t give up hope yet for the Lib Dem campaign, Mr HYUHD!!
We have had two polls from Stoke, both of which put the LDs fourth and UKIP taking the seat, the best they can probably hope for is to overtake the Tories for third, which one poll had them close to doing
On the Opinium figures Labour should hold Copeland quite comfortably.
On the Yougov figures they would narrowly lose it, we will see which is right at the end of the month
On the Yougov GB figures that would be true.However, when the 9% swing to the Tories in Scotland is taken into account the swing in England & Wales comes out at 3.1% -Copeland needs a swing of 3.25%.Neck and neck if accurate!
The Lib Dem price for Stoke *on Betfair does seem to be coming in a bit now. This could be because the Lib Dems seem finally to have got the wind their sails in Stoke. I am receiving lots of encouraging messages. Has anybody else experienced this?
If the LD voteshare in Stoke increases by as much as it did in Sleaford, which voted Leave by a similar margin, they could reach 10% yes!
Reports from the ground say that the Lib Dem campaign in Stoke is way ahead of that in Sleaford, which was of course overshadowed by the Lib Dem effort in Richmond.
And with a three-way split among the Leave voters, the Lib Dem and Remain campaign could well come through the middle. Don`t give up hope yet for the Lib Dem campaign, Mr HYUHD!!
We have had two polls from Stoke, both of which put the LDs fourth and UKIP taking the seat, the best they can probably hope for is to overtake the Tories for third, which one poll had them close to doing
They aren't polls.
Maybe not British Polling Council ones no but they are the only surveys of voting intention in Stoke we currently have to go on
On the Opinium figures Labour should hold Copeland quite comfortably.
On the Yougov figures they would narrowly lose it, we will see which is right at the end of the month
On the Yougov GB figures that would be true.However, when the 9% swing to the Tories in Scotland is taken into account the swing in England & Wales comes out at 3.1% -Copeland needs a swing of 3.25%.Neck and neck if accurate!
Indeed which is why I am phoning there again next week, getting the vote out is key!
Everything from how to put out fires to how to dispose of toilet waste to how not to get the fallout dust in your baked beans. Gloomy stuff.
Thanks for posting that. I have just watched it all. What baffles me is that I was in my 20s in the 1970s - and yet I have never seen or heard of that series of films before now. Or the book(let) they recommend.
Where was I? What was I doing? How could I miss out on that?
It wasn't meant to be broadcast when The Event was imminent. Fortunately none of us have yet lived long enough to witness The Event, and presumably the likely nature of The Event has now changed. I wonder what the public information films for The New Event look like - they must have been prepared, surely.
Wikipedia tells us that The series was considered classified material that was intended for transmission on all television channels only if the government determined that nuclear attack was likely within 72 hours, although recordings were leaked to organisations like CND and press organisations like the BBC, who broadcast it on Panorama as a discussion of public affairs, on 10 March 1980, shortly after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.
Thank you so much. That does make me feel better!
I was thinking I must have spent those years with my head well & truly in the sand (along with everyone else in my circles).
A Tory 7% lead would be a swing of 0.2% from Lab to Con since May 2015. They would gain one seat - Chester - without any account being taken for first time incumbency.
Remind me what the seat changes would have been in 2015 if UNS had been accurate, especially in England?
I don't have those details immediately to hand. The Tories greatly outperformed in the marginal seats gained from Labour in 2010 - with the exception of London and parts of the North West.Strong evidence was there of a first term incumbency boost for sitting MPs. That factor might help Labour next time to defend the gains made in England in 2015. I await with interest the regional breakdown of the poll. Will there be further evidence of a big swing to the Tories in Scotland? If so, that could imply a pro- Labour swing in England.
Corbyn is polling 4% worse in this Opinium poll than Miliband did in his final Opinium poll and given there was a swing to Labour in England in 2015 there has almost certainly been a swing to the Tories in England now
That data should emerge in this poll tomorrow - but there has been evidence for a while that the strong Tory recovery in Scotland has been inflating their GB leads and probably somewhat distorting how well they are performing in England.
On the Opinium figures Labour should hold Copeland quite comfortably.
On the Yougov figures they would narrowly lose it, we will see which is right at the end of the month
On the Yougov GB figures that would be true.However, when the 9% swing to the Tories in Scotland is taken into account the swing in England & Wales comes out at 3.1% -Copeland needs a swing of 3.25%.Neck and neck if accurate!
Indeed which is why I am phoning there again next week, getting the vote out is key!
Which party will gain from a high turnout there in your opinion?
A Tory 7% lead would be a swing of 0.2% from Lab to Con since May 2015. They would gain one seat - Chester - without any account being taken for first time incumbency.
Remind me what the seat changes would have been in 2015 if UNS had been accurate, especially in England?
I don't have those details immediately to hand. The Tories greatly outperformed in the marginal seats gained from Labour in 2010 - with the exception of London and parts of the North West.Strong evidence was there of a first term incumbency boost for sitting MPs. That factor might help Labour next time to defend the gains made in England in 2015. I await with interest the regional breakdown of the poll. Will there be further evidence of a big swing to the Tories in Scotland? If so, that could imply a pro- Labour swing in England.
Corbyn is polling 4% worse in this Opinium poll than Miliband did in his final Opinium poll and given there was a swing to Labour in England in 2015 there has almost certainly been a swing to the Tories in England now
That data should emerge in this poll tomorrow - but there has been evidence for a while that the strong Tory recovery in Scotland has been inflating their GB leads and probably somewhat distorting how well they are performing in England.
On the Opinium figures Labour should hold Copeland quite comfortably.
On the Yougov figures they would narrowly lose it, we will see which is right at the end of the month
On the Yougov GB figures that would be true.However, when the 9% swing to the Tories in Scotland is taken into account the swing in England & Wales comes out at 3.1% -Copeland needs a swing of 3.25%.Neck and neck if accurate!
Indeed which is why I am phoning there again next week, getting the vote out is key!
Which party will gain from a high turnout there in your opinion?
The Tories and the LDs, Labour voters are supporters despite Corbyn not because of him
A Tory 7% lead would be a swing of 0.2% from Lab to Con since May 2015. They would gain one seat - Chester - without any account being taken for first time incumbency.
Remind me what the seat changes would have been in 2015 if UNS had been accurate, especially in England?
I don't have those details immediately to hand. The Tories greatly outperformed in the marginal seats gained from Labour in 2010 - with the exception of London and parts of the North West.Strong evidence was there of a first term incumbency boost for sitting MPs. That factor might help Labour next time to defend the gains made in England in 2015. I await with interest the regional breakdown of the poll. Will there be further evidence of a big swing to the Tories in Scotland? If so, that could imply a pro- Labour swing in England.
Corbyn is polling 4% worse in this Opinium poll than Miliband did in his final Opinium poll and given there was a swing to Labour in England in 2015 there has almost certainly been a swing to the Tories in England now
That data should emerge in this poll tomorrow - but there has been evidence for a while that the strong Tory recovery in Scotland has been inflating their GB leads and probably somewhat distorting how well they are performing in England.
Thanks for that The Opinium tables for Scotland show the Tories on 23% with Labour on 17% - that represents a pro-Tory swing of 8% from Labour since 2015. For England the figures are Tory 39% Labour 32% - a 7% lead matching the GB margin. In 2015 the Tory lead in England was 9.5% - so this data is suggesting a pro-Labour swing of 1.25% from the Tories.
A Tory 7% lead would be a swing of 0.2% from Lab to Con since May 2015. They would gain one seat - Chester - without any account being taken for first time incumbency.
Remind me what the seat changes would have been in 2015 if UNS had been accurate, especially in England?
I don't have those details immediately to hand. The Tories greatly outperformed in the marginal seats gained from Labour in 2010 - with the exception of London and parts of the North West.Strong evidence was there of a first term incumbency boost for sitting MPs. That factor might help Labour next time to defend the gains made in England in 2015. I await with interest the regional breakdown of the poll. Will there be further evidence of a big swing to the Tories in Scotland? If so, that could imply a pro- Labour swing in England.
Corbyn is polling 4% worse in this Opinium poll than Miliband did in his final Opinium poll and given there was a swing to Labour in England in 2015 there has almost certainly been a swing to the Tories in England now
That data should emerge in this poll tomorrow - but there has been evidence for a while that the strong Tory recovery in Scotland has been inflating their GB leads and probably somewhat distorting how well they are performing in England.
The Tories lead Labour by 39% to 32% in England according to the poll details so the lead is no different to the UK one
A Tory 7% lead would be a swing of 0.2% from Lab to Con since May 2015. They would gain one seat - Chester - without any account being taken for first time incumbency.
Remind me what the seat changes would have been in 2015 if UNS had been accurate, especially in England?
I don't have those details immediately to hand. The Tories greatly outperformed in the marginal seats gained from Labour in 2010 - with the exception of London and parts of the North West.Strong evidence was there of a first term incumbency boost for sitting MPs. That factor might help Labour next time to defend the gains made in England in 2015. I await with interest the regional breakdown of the poll. Will there be further evidence of a big swing to the Tories in Scotland? If so, that could imply a pro- Labour swing in England.
Corbyn is polling 4% worse in this Opinium poll than Miliband did in his final Opinium poll and given there was a swing to Labour in England in 2015 there has almost certainly been a swing to the Tories in England now
That data should emerge in this poll tomorrow - but there has been evidence for a while that the strong Tory recovery in Scotland has been inflating their GB leads and probably somewhat distorting how well they are performing in England.
Thanks for that The Opinium tables for Scotland show the Tories on 23% with Labour on 17% - that represents a pro-Tory swing of 8% from Labour since 2015. For England the figures are Tory 39% Labour 32% - a 7% lead matching the GB margin. In 2015 the Tory lead in England was 9.5% - so this data is suggesting a pro-Labour swing of 1.25% from the Tories.
Given the final Opinium poll in 2015 had Labour on 34% and this poll has them falling to 30% there has almost certainly been a swing to the Tories in England given Opinium's overestimation of the Labour vote
A Tory 7% lead would be a swing of 0.2% from Lab to Con since May 2015. They would gain one seat - Chester - without any account being taken for first time incumbency.
Remind me what the seat changes would have been in 2015 if UNS had been accurate, especially in England?
I don't have those details immediately to hand. The Tories greatly outperformed in the marginal seats gained from Labour in 2010 - with the exception of London and parts of the North West.Strong evidence was there of a first term incumbency boost for sitting MPs. That factor might help Labour next time to defend the gains made in England in 2015. I await with interest the regional breakdown of the poll. Will there be further evidence of a big swing to the Tories in Scotland? If so, that could imply a pro- Labour swing in England.
Corbyn is polling 4% worse in this Opinium poll than Miliband did in his final Opinium poll and given there was a swing to Labour in England in 2015 there has almost certainly been a swing to the Tories in England now
That data should emerge in this poll tomorrow - but there has been evidence for a while that the strong Tory recovery in Scotland has been inflating their GB leads and probably somewhat distorting how well they are performing in England.
Thanks for that The Opinium tables for Scotland show the Tories on 23% with Labour on 17% - that represents a pro-Tory swing of 8% from Labour since 2015. For England the figures are Tory 39% Labour 32% - a 7% lead matching the GB margin. In 2015 the Tory lead in England was 9.5% - so this data is suggesting a pro-Labour swing of 1.25% from the Tories.
And what was the Tory to Lab swing in 2015 in England?
A Tory 7% lead would be a swing of 0.2% from Lab to Con since May 2015. They would gain one seat - Chester - without any account being taken for first time incumbency.
Remind me what the seat changes would have been in 2015 if UNS had been accurate, especially in England?
I don't have those details immediately to hand. The Tories greatly outperformed in the marginal seats gained from Labour in 2010 - with the exception of London and parts of the North West.Strong evidence was there of a first term incumbency boost for sitting MPs. That factor might help Labour next time to defend the gains made in England in 2015. I await with interest the regional breakdown of the poll. Will there be further evidence of a big swing to the Tories in Scotland? If so, that could imply a pro- Labour swing in England.
Corbyn is polling 4% worse in this Opinium poll than Miliband did in his final Opinium poll and given there was a swing to Labour in England in 2015 there has almost certainly been a swing to the Tories in England now
That data should emerge in this poll tomorrow - but there has been evidence for a while that the strong Tory recovery in Scotland has been inflating their GB leads and probably somewhat distorting how well they are performing in England.
Thanks for that The Opinium tables for Scotland show the Tories on 23% with Labour on 17% - that represents a pro-Tory swing of 8% from Labour since 2015. For England the figures are Tory 39% Labour 32% - a 7% lead matching the GB margin. In 2015 the Tory lead in England was 9.5% - so this data is suggesting a pro-Labour swing of 1.25% from the Tories.
And what was the Tory to Lab swing in 2015 in England?
A Tory 7% lead would be a swing of 0.2% from Lab to Con since May 2015. They would gain one seat - Chester - without any account being taken for first time incumbency.
Remind me what the seat changes would have been in 2015 if UNS had been accurate, especially in England?
I don't have those details immediately to hand. The Tories greatly outperformed in the marginal seats gained from Labour in 2010 - with the exception of London and parts of the North West.Strong evidence was there of a first term incumbency boost for sitting MPs. That factor might help Labour next time to defend the gains made in England in 2015. I await with interest the regional breakdown of the poll. Will there be further evidence of a big swing to the Tories in Scotland? If so, that could imply a pro- Labour swing in England.
Corbyn is polling 4% worse in this Opinium poll than Miliband did in his final Opinium poll and given there was a swing to Labour in England in 2015 there has almost certainly been a swing to the Tories in England now
That data should emerge in this poll tomorrow - but there has been evidence for a while that the strong Tory recovery in Scotland has been inflating their GB leads and probably somewhat distorting how well they are performing in England.
Thanks for that The Opinium tables for Scotland show the Tories on 23% with Labour on 17% - that represents a pro-Tory swing of 8% from Labour since 2015. For England the figures are Tory 39% Labour 32% - a 7% lead matching the GB margin. In 2015 the Tory lead in England was 9.5% - so this data is suggesting a pro-Labour swing of 1.25% from the Tories.
And what was the Tory to Lab swing in 2015 in England?
A Tory 7% lead would be a swing of 0.2% from Lab to Con since May 2015. They would gain one seat - Chester - without any account being taken for first time incumbency.
Remind me what the seat changes would have been in 2015 if UNS had been accurate, especially in England?
I don't have those details immediately to hand. The Tories greatly outperformed in the marginal seats gained from Labour in 2010 - with the exception of London and parts of the North West.Strong evidence was there of a first term incumbency boost for sitting MPs. That factor might help Labour next time to defend the gains made in England in 2015. I await with interest the regional breakdown of the poll. Will there be further evidence of a big swing to the Tories in Scotland? If so, that could imply a pro- Labour swing in England.
Corbyn is polling 4% worse in this Opinium poll than Miliband did in his final Opinium poll and given there was a swing to Labour in England in 2015 there has almost certainly been a swing to the Tories in England now
That data should emerge in this poll tomorrow - but there has been evidence for a while that the strong Tory recovery in Scotland has been inflating their GB leads and probably somewhat distorting how well they are performing in England.
Thanks for that The Opinium tables for Scotland show the Tories on 23% with Labour on 17% - that represents a pro-Tory swing of 8% from Labour since 2015. For England the figures are Tory 39% Labour 32% - a 7% lead matching the GB margin. In 2015 the Tory lead in England was 9.5% - so this data is suggesting a pro-Labour swing of 1.25% from the Tories.
Given the final Opinium poll in 2015 had Labour on 34% and this poll has them falling to 30% there has almost certainly been a swing to the Tories in England given Opinium's overestimation of the Labour vote
Opinium was no further out in 2015 than any other pollsters - indeed it gave the Tories a 1% lead unlike some others. Opinium have changed their methodology since 2015 - and according to Anthony Wells of Yougov /Polling Report they do weight on the basis of how people voted in the Referendum.
A Tory 7% lead would be a swing of 0.2% from Lab to Con since May 2015. They would gain one seat - Chester - without any account being taken for first time incumbency.
Remind me what the seat changes would have been in 2015 if UNS had been accurate, especially in England?
I don't have those details immediately to hand. The Tories greatly outperformed in the marginal seats gained from Labour in 2010 - with the exception of London and parts of the North West.Strong evidence was there of a first term incumbency boost for sitting MPs. That factor might help Labour next time to defend the gains made in England in 2015. I await with interest the regional breakdown of the poll. Will there be further evidence of a big swing to the Tories in Scotland? If so, that could imply a pro- Labour swing in England.
Corbyn is polling 4% worse in this Opinium poll than Miliband did in his final Opinium poll and given there was a swing to Labour in England in 2015 there has almost certainly been a swing to the Tories in England now
That data should emerge in this poll tomorrow - but there has been evidence for a while that the strong Tory recovery in Scotland has been inflating their GB leads and probably somewhat distorting how well they are performing in England.
Thanks for that The Opinium tables for Scotland show the Tories on 23% with Labour on 17% - that represents a pro-Tory swing of 8% from Labour since 2015. For England the figures are Tory 39% Labour 32% - a 7% lead matching the GB margin. In 2015 the Tory lead in England was 9.5% - so this data is suggesting a pro-Labour swing of 1.25% from the Tories.
And what was the Tory to Lab swing in 2015 in England?
And Labour stacked up votes where it didn't matter and the Tories got votes where it mattered.
England is not homogeneous for you to assume that 1.25% Con to Lab swing will be uniform all over England.
I have not said that! The only point I am inclined to make, is that the first term incumbency bonus may well help Labour a bit next time in Tory/Labour marginals. Of course, the Tories could still benefit in the Tory/LD marginals gained in 2015.
A Tory 7% lead would be a swing of 0.2% from Lab to Con since May 2015. They would gain one seat - Chester - without any account being taken for first time incumbency.
Remind me what the seat changes would have been in 2015 if UNS had been accurate, especially in England?
I don't have those details immediately to hand. The Tories greatly outperformed in the marginal seats gained from Labour in 2010 - with the exception of London and parts of the North West.Strong evidence was there of a first term incumbency boost for sitting MPs. That factor might help Labour next time to defend the gains made in England in 2015. I await with interest the regional breakdown of the poll. Will there be further evidence of a big swing to the Tories in Scotland? If so, that could imply a pro- Labour swing in England.
Corbyn is polling 4% worse in this Opinium poll than Miliband did in his final Opinium poll and given there was a swing to Labour in England in 2015 there has almost certainly been a swing to the Tories in England now
That data should emerge in this poll tomorrow - but there has been evidence for a while that the strong Tory recovery in Scotland has been inflating their GB leads and probably somewhat distorting how well they are performing in England.
Thanks for that The Opinium tables for Scotland show the Tories on 23% with Labour on 17% - that represents a pro-Tory swing of 8% from Labour since 2015. For England the figures are Tory 39% Labour 32% - a 7% lead matching the GB margin. In 2015 the Tory lead in England was 9.5% - so this data is suggesting a pro-Labour swing of 1.25% from the Tories.
Given the final Opinium poll in 2015 had Labour on 34% and this poll has them falling to 30% there has almost certainly been a swing to the Tories in England given Opinium's overestimation of the Labour vote
Opinium was no further out in 2015 than any other pollsters - indeed it gave the Tories a 1% lead unlike some others. Opinium have changed their methodology since 2015 - and according to Anthony Wells of Yougov /Polling Report they do weight on the basis of how people voted in the Referendum.
They obviously have not changed their methodology that much compared to other pollsters though as they consistently have Labour higher than other polling firms do. Now that does not mean they are incorrect but Copeland and Stoke will show us which is closer to reality
Don't all antiestablishment, definitely not part of the elite, populist right wing politicians live in £4 million Georgian townhouses?
I feel sorry for Paul Nuttall, he sees Farage living in a £4 million Georgian townhouse, whilst Nuttall has to slum it in a terraced house in Stoke.
It's one hell of a place to live in on an MEPs salary. Rent or mortgage would be thousands a week. Makes you wonder whether Nigel has other sources of income - or a Sugar Daddy - he's not told anyone about.
Don't all antiestablishment, definitely not part of the elite, populist right wing politicians live in £4 million Georgian townhouses?
I feel sorry for Paul Nuttall, he sees Farage living in a £4 million Georgian townhouse, whilst Nuttall has to slum it in a terraced house in Stoke.
If he becomes an MP on his first attempt as leader that terraced house will be worth the investment given Farage stood 7 times and still failed to win a Westminster seat
A Tory 7% lead would be a swing of 0.2% from Lab to Con since May 2015. They would gain one seat - Chester - without any account being taken for first time incumbency.
Remind me what the seat changes would have been in 2015 if UNS had been accurate, especially in England?
I don't have those details immediately to hand. The Tories greatly outperformed in the marginal seats gained from Labour in 2010 - with the exception of London and parts of the North West.Strong evidence was there of a first term incumbency boost for sitting MPs. That factor might help Labour next time to defend the gains made in England in 2015. I await with interest the regional breakdown of the poll. Will there be further evidence of a big swing to the Tories in Scotland? If so, that could imply a pro- Labour swing in England.
That data should emerge in this poll tomorrow - but there has been evidence for a while that the strong Tory recovery in Scotland has been inflating their GB leads and probably somewhat distorting how well they are performing in England.
Thanks for that The Opinium tables for Scotland show the Tories on 23% with Labour on 17% - that represents a pro-Tory swing of 8% from Labour since 2015. For England the figures are Tory 39% Labour 32% - a 7% lead matching the GB margin. In 2015 the Tory lead in England was 9.5% - so this data is suggesting a pro-Labour swing of 1.25% from the Tories.
Given the final Opinium poll in 2015 had Labour on 34% and this poll has them falling to 30% there has almost certainly been a swing to the Tories in England given Opinium's overestimation of the Labour vote
They obviously have not changed their methodology that much compared to other pollsters though as they consistently have Labour higher than other polling firms do. Now that does not mean they are incorrect but Copeland and Stoke will show us which is closer to reality
I believe that Survation and Mori have come up with similar figures - though the latter tend to be more volatile. Yougov and ICM have certainly been producing bigger Tory leads.ICM historically has tended to give lower Labour scores and higher LD scores than other pollsters - but Yougov appear to have picked up a drop in Labour support since September which has not been seen in the other polls. Even ICM has failed to do that.
Don't all antiestablishment, definitely not part of the elite, populist right wing politicians live in £4 million Georgian townhouses?
I feel sorry for Paul Nuttall, he sees Farage living in a £4 million Georgian townhouse, whilst Nuttall has to slum it in a terraced house in Stoke.
I slummed it in Sheffield for three nights last week, staying not far from Hallam University. This was so that I could easily do Sheffield to Lincoln on Wednesday, the National Railway Museum on Thursday (also doing Sheffield to Leeds via Moorthorpe, and Leeds to York in the process), and Doncaster to Cleethorpes yesterday (Friday). It was actually sunny in Cleethorpes!
A Tory 7% lead would be a swing of 0.2% from Lab to Con since May 2015. They would gain one seat - Chester - without any account being taken for first time incumbency.
Remind me what the seat changes would have been in 2015 if UNS had been accurate, especially in England?
I don't have those details immediately to hand. The Tories greatly outperformed in the marginal seats gained from Labour in 2010 - with the exception of London and parts of the North West.Strong evidence was there of a first term incumbency boost for sitting MPs. That factor might help Labour next time to defend the gains made in England in 2015. I await with interest the regional breakdown of the poll. Will there be further evidence of a big swing to the Tories in Scotland? If so, that could imply a pro- Labour swing in England.
That data should emerge in this poll tomorrow - but there has been evidence for a while that the strong Tory recovery in Scotland has been inflating their GB leads and probably somewhat distorting how well they are performing in England.
Thanks for that The Opinium tables for Scotland show the Tories on 23% with Labour on 17% - that represents a pro-Tory swing of 8% from Labour since 2015. For England the figures are Tory 39% Labour 32% - a 7% lead matching the GB margin. In 2015 the Tory lead in England was 9.5% - so this data is suggesting a pro-Labour swing of 1.25% from the Tories.
Given the final Opinium poll in
They obviously have not changed their methodology that much compared to other pollsters though as they consistently have Labour higher than other polling firms do. Now that does not mean they are incorrect but Copeland and Stoke will show us which is closer to reality
I believe that Survation and Mori have come up with similar figures - though the latter tend to be more volatile. Yougov and ICM have certainly been producing bigger Tory leads.ICM historically has tended to give lower Labour scores and higher LD scores than other pollsters - but Yougov appear to have picked up a drop in Labour support since September which has not been seen in the other polls. Even ICM has failed to do that.
75% "don't know" for Keir Starmer. Is that name recognition - or lack thereof?
We could do with two categories: "I don't know what I think of him/her" and "I've never heard of that person." It would also be nice to see a control name!
Who control name? Queen Elizabeth II.
Nah, a made up name to see who's paying attention.
What was that fictitious MP people thought should be locked up for expenses again?
75% "don't know" for Keir Starmer. Is that name recognition - or lack thereof?
We could do with two categories: "I don't know what I think of him/her" and "I've never heard of that person." It would also be nice to see a control name!
Who control name? Queen Elizabeth II.
Nah, a made up name to see who's paying attention.
What was that fictitious MP people thought should be locked up for expenses again?
There was Stewart Lewis who Ipsos Mori found around 5% of the public supported in the Labour leadership contest of 2015.
A Tory 7% lead would be a swing of 0.2% from Lab to Con since May 2015. They would gain one seat - Chester - without any account being taken for first time incumbency.
Remind me what the seat changes would have been in 2015 if UNS had been accurate, especially in England?
I don't have those details immediately to hand. The Tories greatly outperformed in the marginal seats gained from Labour in 2010 - with the exception of London and parts of the North West.Strong evidence was there of a first term incumbency boost for sitting MPs. That factor might help Labour next time to defend the gains made in England in 2015. I await with interest the regional breakdown of the poll. Will there be further evidence of a big swing to the Tories in Scotland? If so, that could imply a pro- Labour swing in England.
Corbyn is polling 4% worse in this Opinium poll than Miliband did in his final Opinium poll and given there was a swing to Labour in England in 2015 there has almost certainly been a swing to the Tories in England now
That data should emerge in this poll tomorrow - but there has been evidence for a while that the strong Tory recovery in Scotland has been inflating their GB leads and probably somewhat distorting how well they are performing in England.
I agree. Labour and Tories are MOE versus GE. Corbyn and Labour are not dead or dying. It is Tories who have done badly in local elections, not Labour.
75% "don't know" for Keir Starmer. Is that name recognition - or lack thereof?
We could do with two categories: "I don't know what I think of him/her" and "I've never heard of that person." It would also be nice to see a control name!
Who control name? Queen Elizabeth II.
Nah, a made up name to see who's paying attention.
What was that fictitious MP people thought should be locked up for expenses again?
This is going to drive me fucking scatty. I know that IpsosMori use "Stewart Lewis" as a fictional name, and YouGov use "Pimhole" as a fictional swearword. I also know there's a fictional act/law/bill, but I can't for the life of me remember it! Can somebody clever remember it? Please?!
A Tory 7% lead would be a swing of 0.2% from Lab to Con since May 2015. They would gain one seat - Chester - without any account being taken for first time incumbency.
Remind me what the seat changes would have been in 2015 if UNS had been accurate, especially in England?
I don't have those details immediately to hand. The Tories greatly outperformed in the marginal seats gained from Labour in 2010 - with the exception of London and parts of the North West.Strong evidence was there of a first term incumbency boost for sitting MPs. That factor might help Labour next time to defend the gains made in England in 2015. I await with interest the regional breakdown of the poll. Will there be further evidence of a big swing to the Tories in Scotland? If so, that could imply a pro- Labour swing in England.
Corbyn is polling 4% worse in this Opinium poll than Miliband did in his final Opinium poll and given there was a swing to Labour in England in 2015 there has almost certainly been a swing to the Tories in England now
Labour at GE will not fall below 25%. Tories will not get more than 39%.
75% "don't know" for Keir Starmer. Is that name recognition - or lack thereof?
We could do with two categories: "I don't know what I think of him/her" and "I've never heard of that person." It would also be nice to see a control name!
Who control name? Queen Elizabeth II.
Nah, a made up name to see who's paying attention.
What was that fictitious MP people thought should be locked up for expenses again?
This is going to drive me fucking scatty. I know that IpsosMori use "Stewart Lewis" as a fictional name, and YouGov use "Pimhole" as a fictional swearword. I also know there's a fictional act/law/bill, but I can't for the life of me remember it! Can somebody clever remember it? Please?!
Don't all antiestablishment, definitely not part of the elite, populist right wing politicians live in £4 million Georgian townhouses?
I feel sorry for Paul Nuttall, he sees Farage living in a £4 million Georgian townhouse, whilst Nuttall has to slum it in a terraced house in Stoke.
I slummed it in Sheffield for three nights last week, staying not far from Hallam University. This was so that I could easily do Sheffield to Lincoln on Wednesday, the National Railway Museum on Thursday (also doing Sheffield to Leeds via Moorthorpe, and Leeds to York in the process), and Doncaster to Cleethorpes yesterday (Friday). It was actually sunny in Cleethorpes!
#SadManOnaTrain
Sunil, this is a personal question so you don't have to answer it if you don't want to, but....do you actually have a job?
75% "don't know" for Keir Starmer. Is that name recognition - or lack thereof?
We could do with two categories: "I don't know what I think of him/her" and "I've never heard of that person." It would also be nice to see a control name!
Who control name? Queen Elizabeth II.
Nah, a made up name to see who's paying attention.
What was that fictitious MP people thought should be locked up for expenses again?
There was Stewart Lewis who Ipsos Mori found around 5% of the public supported in the Labour leadership contest of 2015.
75% "don't know" for Keir Starmer. Is that name recognition - or lack thereof?
We could do with two categories: "I don't know what I think of him/her" and "I've never heard of that person." It would also be nice to see a control name!
Who control name? Queen Elizabeth II.
Nah, a made up name to see who's paying attention.
What was that fictitious MP people thought should be locked up for expenses again?
This is going to drive me fucking scatty. I know that IpsosMori use "Stewart Lewis" as a fictional name, and YouGov use "Pimhole" as a fictional swearword. I also know there's a fictional act/law/bill, but I can't for the life of me remember it! Can somebody clever remember it? Please?!
The 1975 Public Affairs Act
Maybe it's the Mandela Effect but I thought at the time of the Stewart Lewis story someone referred me back to an expenses "MP". Maybe not.
Don't all antiestablishment, definitely not part of the elite, populist right wing politicians live in £4 million Georgian townhouses?
I feel sorry for Paul Nuttall, he sees Farage living in a £4 million Georgian townhouse, whilst Nuttall has to slum it in a terraced house in Stoke.
I slummed it in Sheffield for three nights last week, staying not far from Hallam University. This was so that I could easily do Sheffield to Lincoln on Wednesday, the National Railway Museum on Thursday (also doing Sheffield to Leeds via Moorthorpe, and Leeds to York in the process), and Doncaster to Cleethorpes yesterday (Friday). It was actually sunny in Cleethorpes!
#SadManOnaTrain
Sunil, this is a personal question so you don't have to answer it if you don't want to, but....do you actually have a job?
My current contract ended on Tuesday, hence no journeys made until Wednesday.
But Sunil J. Prasannan just laughs off claims that he only works to fund his trainspotting habit.
Now officially part of the resentful Brexit-leaning underclass!
Don't all antiestablishment, definitely not part of the elite, populist right wing politicians live in £4 million Georgian townhouses?
I feel sorry for Paul Nuttall, he sees Farage living in a £4 million Georgian townhouse, whilst Nuttall has to slum it in a terraced house in Stoke.
I slummed it in Sheffield for three nights last week, staying not far from Hallam University. This was so that I could easily do Sheffield to Lincoln on Wednesday, the National Railway Museum on Thursday (also doing Sheffield to Leeds via Moorthorpe, and Leeds to York in the process), and Doncaster to Cleethorpes yesterday (Friday). It was actually sunny in Cleethorpes!
#SadManOnaTrain
Sunil, this is a personal question so you don't have to answer it if you don't want to, but....do you actually have a job?
My current contract ended on Tuesday, hence no journeys made until Wednesday.
But Sunil J. Prasannan just laughs off claims that he only works to fund his trainspotting habit.
Now officially part of the resentful Brexit-leaning underclass!
Don't all antiestablishment, definitely not part of the elite, populist right wing politicians live in £4 million Georgian townhouses?
I feel sorry for Paul Nuttall, he sees Farage living in a £4 million Georgian townhouse, whilst Nuttall has to slum it in a terraced house in Stoke.
I slummed it in Sheffield for three nights last week, staying not far from Hallam University. This was so that I could easily do Sheffield to Lincoln on Wednesday, the National Railway Museum on Thursday (also doing Sheffield to Leeds via Moorthorpe, and Leeds to York in the process), and Doncaster to Cleethorpes yesterday (Friday). It was actually sunny in Cleethorpes!
#SadManOnaTrain
Sunil, this is a personal question so you don't have to answer it if you don't want to, but....do you actually have a job?
My current contract ended on Tuesday, hence no journeys made until Wednesday.
But Sunil J. Prasannan just laughs off claims that he only works to fund his trainspotting habit.
Now officially part of the resentful Brexit-leaning underclass!
Best of luck finding a new contract Dr P. You going to keep playing with the Spectroscopic Big Boys' Toys?
75% "don't know" for Keir Starmer. Is that name recognition - or lack thereof?
We could do with two categories: "I don't know what I think of him/her" and "I've never heard of that person." It would also be nice to see a control name!
Who control name? Queen Elizabeth II.
Nah, a made up name to see who's paying attention.
What was that fictitious MP people thought should be locked up for expenses again?
This is going to drive me fucking scatty. I know that IpsosMori use "Stewart Lewis" as a fictional name, and YouGov use "Pimhole" as a fictional swearword. I also know there's a fictional act/law/bill, but I can't for the life of me remember it! Can somebody clever remember it? Please?!
The 1975 Public Affairs Act
Thank you for that, but I was thinking of a British fictional act/law/bill, not an American one.
75% "don't know" for Keir Starmer. Is that name recognition - or lack thereof?
We could do with two categories: "I don't know what I think of him/her" and "I've never heard of that person." It would also be nice to see a control name!
Who control name? Queen Elizabeth II.
Nah, a made up name to see who's paying attention.
What was that fictitious MP people thought should be locked up for expenses again?
This is going to drive me fucking scatty. I know that IpsosMori use "Stewart Lewis" as a fictional name, and YouGov use "Pimhole" as a fictional swearword. I also know there's a fictional act/law/bill, but I can't for the life of me remember it! Can somebody clever remember it? Please?!
The 1975 Public Affairs Act
Thank you for that, but I was thinking of a British fictional act/law/bill, not an American one.
Don't all antiestablishment, definitely not part of the elite, populist right wing politicians live in £4 million Georgian townhouses?
I feel sorry for Paul Nuttall, he sees Farage living in a £4 million Georgian townhouse, whilst Nuttall has to slum it in a terraced house in Stoke.
I slummed it in Sheffield for three nights last week, staying not far from Hallam University. This was so that I could easily do Sheffield to Lincoln on Wednesday, the National Railway Museum on Thursday (also doing Sheffield to Leeds via Moorthorpe, and Leeds to York in the process), and Doncaster to Cleethorpes yesterday (Friday). It was actually sunny in Cleethorpes!
#SadManOnaTrain
Sunil, this is a personal question so you don't have to answer it if you don't want to, but....do you actually have a job?
My current contract ended on Tuesday, hence no journeys made until Wednesday.
But Sunil J. Prasannan just laughs off claims that he only works to fund his trainspotting habit.
Now officially part of the resentful Brexit-leaning underclass!
Time you enjoyed wasting...was not wasted.
Manchester or Leeds possibly next week
PS. I will be going back to work by the end of February, albeit for a few weeks. PPS. I have some grant applications pending, but won't hear back till the summer.
75% "don't know" for Keir Starmer. Is that name recognition - or lack thereof?
We could do with two categories: "I don't know what I think of him/her" and "I've never heard of that person." It would also be nice to see a control name!
Who control name? Queen Elizabeth II.
Nah, a made up name to see who's paying attention.
What was that fictitious MP people thought should be locked up for expenses again?
This is going to drive me fucking scatty. I know that IpsosMori use "Stewart Lewis" as a fictional name, and YouGov use "Pimhole" as a fictional swearword. I also know there's a fictional act/law/bill, but I can't for the life of me remember it! Can somebody clever remember it? Please?!
The 1975 Public Affairs Act
Thank you for that, but I was thinking of a British fictional act/law/bill, not an American one.
Almost one-third of Republican primary voters would support bombing the fictional kingdom of Agrabah, according to a report released by Public Policy Polling on Friday.
More than 530 Republican primary voters were polled this week on their support for Republican candidates and foreign policy issues including banning Muslims from entering the US, Japanese internment camps from the second world war and bombing Agrabah, the kingdom from Disney’s animated classic, Aladdin.
In its poll, Public Policy Polling asked the 532 Republicans: “Would you support or oppose bombing Agrabah?” While 57% of responders said they were not sure, 30% said they supported bombing it. Only 13% opposed it.
75% "don't know" for Keir Starmer. Is that name recognition - or lack thereof?
We could do with two categories: "I don't know what I think of him/her" and "I've never heard of that person." It would also be nice to see a control name!
Who control name? Queen Elizabeth II.
Nah, a made up name to see who's paying attention.
What was that fictitious MP people thought should be locked up for expenses again?
This is going to drive me fucking scatty. I know that IpsosMori use "Stewart Lewis" as a fictional name, and YouGov use "Pimhole" as a fictional swearword. I also know there's a fictional act/law/bill, but I can't for the life of me remember it! Can somebody clever remember it? Please?!
The 1975 Public Affairs Act
Thank you for that, but I was thinking of a British fictional act/law/bill, not an American one.
Almost one-third of Republican primary voters would support bombing the fictional kingdom of Agrabah, according to a report released by Public Policy Polling on Friday.
More than 530 Republican primary voters were polled this week on their support for Republican candidates and foreign policy issues including banning Muslims from entering the US, Japanese internment camps from the second world war and bombing Agrabah, the kingdom from Disney’s animated classic, Aladdin.
In its poll, Public Policy Polling asked the 532 Republicans: “Would you support or oppose bombing Agrabah?” While 57% of responders said they were not sure, 30% said they supported bombing it. Only 13% opposed it.
Don't all antiestablishment, definitely not part of the elite, populist right wing politicians live in £4 million Georgian townhouses?
I feel sorry for Paul Nuttall, he sees Farage living in a £4 million Georgian townhouse, whilst Nuttall has to slum it in a terraced house in Stoke.
I slummed it in Sheffield for three nights last week, staying not far from Hallam University. This was so that I could easily do Sheffield to Lincoln on Wednesday, the National Railway Museum on Thursday (also doing Sheffield to Leeds via Moorthorpe, and Leeds to York in the process), and Doncaster to Cleethorpes yesterday (Friday). It was actually sunny in Cleethorpes!
#SadManOnaTrain
Sunil, this is a personal question so you don't have to answer it if you don't want to, but....do you actually have a job?
My current contract ended on Tuesday, hence no journeys made until Wednesday.
But Sunil J. Prasannan just laughs off claims that he only works to fund his trainspotting habit.
Now officially part of the resentful Brexit-leaning underclass!
Don't all antiestablishment, definitely not part of the elite, populist right wing politicians live in £4 million Georgian townhouses?
I feel sorry for Paul Nuttall, he sees Farage living in a £4 million Georgian townhouse, whilst Nuttall has to slum it in a terraced house in Stoke.
I slummed it in Sheffield for three nights last week, staying not far from Hallam University. This was so that I could easily do Sheffield to Lincoln on Wednesday, the National Railway Museum on Thursday (also doing Sheffield to Leeds via Moorthorpe, and Leeds to York in the process), and Doncaster to Cleethorpes yesterday (Friday). It was actually sunny in Cleethorpes!
#SadManOnaTrain
Sunil, this is a personal question so you don't have to answer it if you don't want to, but....do you actually have a job?
My current contract ended on Tuesday, hence no journeys made until Wednesday.
But Sunil J. Prasannan just laughs off claims that he only works to fund his trainspotting habit.
Now officially part of the resentful Brexit-leaning underclass!
Best of luck finding a new contract Dr P. You going to keep playing with the Spectroscopic Big Boys' Toys?
Thanks, MBE! I should be, yes, if my grant application succeeds
Don't all antiestablishment, definitely not part of the elite, populist right wing politicians live in £4 million Georgian townhouses?
I feel sorry for Paul Nuttall, he sees Farage living in a £4 million Georgian townhouse, whilst Nuttall has to slum it in a terraced house in Stoke.
I slummed it in Sheffield for three nights last week, staying not far from Hallam University. This was so that I could easily do Sheffield to Lincoln on Wednesday, the National Railway Museum on Thursday (also doing Sheffield to Leeds via Moorthorpe, and Leeds to York in the process), and Doncaster to Cleethorpes yesterday (Friday). It was actually sunny in Cleethorpes!
#SadManOnaTrain
Sunil, this is a personal question so you don't have to answer it if you don't want to, but....do you actually have a job?
My current contract ended on Tuesday, hence no journeys made until Wednesday.
But Sunil J. Prasannan just laughs off claims that he only works to fund his trainspotting habit.
Now officially part of the resentful Brexit-leaning underclass!
So, the Brexit job losses start....
I did say "resentful"... [evil laughter echoes around PB.com!]
Don't all antiestablishment, definitely not part of the elite, populist right wing politicians live in £4 million Georgian townhouses?
I feel sorry for Paul Nuttall, he sees Farage living in a £4 million Georgian townhouse, whilst Nuttall has to slum it in a terraced house in Stoke.
I slummed it in Sheffield for three nights last week, staying not far from Hallam University. This was so that I could easily do Sheffield to Lincoln on Wednesday, the National Railway Museum on Thursday (also doing Sheffield to Leeds via Moorthorpe, and Leeds to York in the process), and Doncaster to Cleethorpes yesterday (Friday). It was actually sunny in Cleethorpes!
#SadManOnaTrain
Sunil, this is a personal question so you don't have to answer it if you don't want to, but....do you actually have a job?
My current contract ended on Tuesday, hence no journeys made until Wednesday.
But Sunil J. Prasannan just laughs off claims that he only works to fund his trainspotting habit.
Now officially part of the resentful Brexit-leaning underclass!
Best of luck finding a new contract Dr P. You going to keep playing with the Spectroscopic Big Boys' Toys?
Thanks, MBE! I should be, yes, if my grant application succeeds
Good stuff. Science is a precarious line of work, I don't envy you. Ever wish you'd studied railyway engineering instead? My sense of humour is normally tuned to a different frequency to yours, but I completely cracked up at your Aladdin joke, btw.
A Tory 7% lead would be a swing of 0.2% from Lab to Con since May 2015. They would gain one seat - Chester - without any account being taken for first time incumbency.
Remind me what the seat changes would have been in 2015 if UNS had been accurate, especially in England?
I don't have those details immediately to hand. The Tories greatly outperformed in the marginal seats gained from Labour in 2010 - with the exception of London and parts of the North West.Strong evidence was there of a first term incumbency boost for sitting MPs. That factor might help Labour next time to defend the gains made in England in 2015. I await with interest the regional breakdown of the poll. Will there be further evidence of a big swing to the Tories in Scotland? If so, that could imply a pro- Labour swing in England.
Corbyn is polling 4% worse in this Opinium poll than Miliband did in his final Opinium poll and given there was a swing to Labour in England in 2015 there has almost certainly been a swing to the Tories in England now
Labour at GE will not fall below 25%. Tories will not get more than 39%.
Maybe but I am sure May would gladly take a 14% lead
Don't all antiestablishment, definitely not part of the elite, populist right wing politicians live in £4 million Georgian townhouses?
I feel sorry for Paul Nuttall, he sees Farage living in a £4 million Georgian townhouse, whilst Nuttall has to slum it in a terraced house in Stoke.
I slummed it in Sheffield for three nights last week, staying not far from Hallam University. This was so that I could easily do Sheffield to Lincoln on Wednesday, the National Railway Museum on Thursday (also doing Sheffield to Leeds via Moorthorpe, and Leeds to York in the process), and Doncaster to Cleethorpes yesterday (Friday). It was actually sunny in Cleethorpes!
#SadManOnaTrain
Sunil, this is a personal question so you don't have to answer it if you don't want to, but....do you actually have a job?
My current contract ended on Tuesday, hence no journeys made until Wednesday.
But Sunil J. Prasannan just laughs off claims that he only works to fund his trainspotting habit.
Now officially part of the resentful Brexit-leaning underclass!
Best of luck finding a new contract Dr P. You going to keep playing with the Spectroscopic Big Boys' Toys?
Thanks, MBE! I should be, yes, if my grant application succeeds
Good stuff. Science is a precarious line of work, I don't envy you. Ever wish you'd studied railyway engineering instead? My sense of humour is normally tuned to a different frequency to yours, but I completely cracked up at your Aladdin joke, btw.
Yes there are times when I wish I had done engineering! Today, I actually saw a train run on Crossrail near Excel Centre in east London - but it was just a diesel shunter with an engineering service!
So that's the Public Order Act 1975 (fictional act), Agrabah (fictional country), Pimhole (fictional swearword) and Stewart Lewis (fictional politician). Thank you all who answered
Don't all antiestablishment, definitely not part of the elite, populist right wing politicians live in £4 million Georgian townhouses?
I feel sorry for Paul Nuttall, he sees Farage living in a £4 million Georgian townhouse, whilst Nuttall has to slum it in a terraced house in Stoke.
I slummed it in Sheffield for three nights last week, staying not far from Hallam University. This was so that I could easily do Sheffield to Lincoln on Wednesday, the National Railway Museum on Thursday (also doing Sheffield to Leeds via Moorthorpe, and Leeds to York in the process), and Doncaster to Cleethorpes yesterday (Friday). It was actually sunny in Cleethorpes!
#SadManOnaTrain
Sunil, this is a personal question so you don't have to answer it if you don't want to, but....do you actually have a job?
My current contract ended on Tuesday, hence no journeys made until Wednesday.
But Sunil J. Prasannan just laughs off claims that he only works to fund his trainspotting habit.
Now officially part of the resentful Brexit-leaning underclass!
Best of luck finding a new contract Dr P. You going to keep playing with the Spectroscopic Big Boys' Toys?
Thanks, MBE! I should be, yes, if my grant application succeeds
Don't all antiestablishment, definitely not part of the elite, populist right wing politicians live in £4 million Georgian townhouses?
I feel sorry for Paul Nuttall, he sees Farage living in a £4 million Georgian townhouse, whilst Nuttall has to slum it in a terraced house in Stoke.
I slummed it in Sheffield for three nights last week, staying not far from Hallam University. This was so that I could easily do Sheffield to Lincoln on Wednesday, the National Railway Museum on Thursday (also doing Sheffield to Leeds via Moorthorpe, and Leeds to York in the process), and Doncaster to Cleethorpes yesterday (Friday). It was actually sunny in Cleethorpes!
#SadManOnaTrain
Sunil, this is a personal question so you don't have to answer it if you don't want to, but....do you actually have a job?
My current contract ended on Tuesday, hence no journeys made until Wednesday.
But Sunil J. Prasannan just laughs off claims that he only works to fund his trainspotting habit.
Now officially part of the resentful Brexit-leaning underclass!
Have you put your CV into The Sun? They need headline writers of your calibre.
The German Social Democrat revival continues under their shiny new Europhile candidate - in the latest poll, only 4 points behind Merkel with a 6-point jump, which is VERY unusual in German polling. AfD, Greens and Left all slightly down in most recent polls.
Those who have bet on Merkel staying on at short odds may wish to consider covering their positions (speaking as someone who saw it as a near-certainty). I still think she's the favourite, but probably should be 1.7-1.8 now.
Don't all antiestablishment, definitely not part of the elite, populist right wing politicians live in £4 million Georgian townhouses?
I feel sorry for Paul Nuttall, he sees Farage living in a £4 million Georgian townhouse, whilst Nuttall has to slum it in a terraced house in Stoke.
I slummed it in Sheffield for three nights last week, staying not far from Hallam University. This was so that I could easily do Sheffield to Lincoln on Wednesday, the National Railway Museum on Thursday (also doing Sheffield to Leeds via Moorthorpe, and Leeds to York in the process), and Doncaster to Cleethorpes yesterday (Friday). It was actually sunny in Cleethorpes!
#SadManOnaTrain
Sunil, this is a personal question so you don't have to answer it if you don't want to, but....do you actually have a job?
My current contract ended on Tuesday, hence no journeys made until Wednesday.
But Sunil J. Prasannan just laughs off claims that he only works to fund his trainspotting habit.
Now officially part of the resentful Brexit-leaning underclass!
Best of luck finding a new contract Dr P. You going to keep playing with the Spectroscopic Big Boys' Toys?
Thanks, MBE! I should be, yes, if my grant application succeeds
Don't all antiestablishment, definitely not part of the elite, populist right wing politicians live in £4 million Georgian townhouses?
I feel sorry for Paul Nuttall, he sees Farage living in a £4 million Georgian townhouse, whilst Nuttall has to slum it in a terraced house in Stoke.
I slummed it in Sheffield for three nights last week, staying not far from Hallam University. This was so that I could easily do Sheffield to Lincoln on Wednesday, the National Railway Museum on Thursday (also doing Sheffield to Leeds via Moorthorpe, and Leeds to York in the process), and Doncaster to Cleethorpes yesterday (Friday). It was actually sunny in Cleethorpes!
#SadManOnaTrain
Sunil, this is a personal question so you don't have to answer it if you don't want to, but....do you actually have a job?
My current contract ended on Tuesday, hence no journeys made until Wednesday.
But Sunil J. Prasannan just laughs off claims that he only works to fund his trainspotting habit.
Now officially part of the resentful Brexit-leaning underclass!
Have you put your CV into The Sun? They need headline writers of your calibre.
The German Social Democrat revival continues under their shiny new Europhile candidate - in the latest poll, only 4 points behind Merkel with a 6-point jump, which is VERY unusual in German polling. AfD, Greens and Left all slightly down in most recent polls.
Those who have bet on Merkel staying on at short odds may wish to consider covering their positions (speaking as someone who saw it as a near-certainty). I still think she's the favourite, but probably should be 1.7-1.8 now.
Schulz has clearly got a bounce but I suspect he will end up Deputy to Merkel in yet another CDU-SDP Coalition, even if the SDP pull ahead and he ends up Chancellor it will likely be the same in reverse. The AfD still third
The German Social Democrat revival continues under their shiny new Europhile candidate - in the latest poll, only 4 points behind Merkel with a 6-point jump, which is VERY unusual in German polling. AfD, Greens and Left all slightly down in most recent polls.
Those who have bet on Merkel staying on at short odds may wish to consider covering their positions (speaking as someone who saw it as a near-certainty). I still think she's the favourite, but probably should be 1.7-1.8 now.
Schulz has clearly got a bounce but I suspect he will end up Deputy to Merkel in yet another CDU-SDP Coalition, even if the SDP pull ahead and he ends up Chancellor it will likely be the same in reverse. The AfD still third
Hmmm, the CDU may prefer the SDP but what about the CSU? They have been increasingly warming to the AfD - which means there's no guarantee that a grand coalition will have a majority, if the CSU decide they've had enough.
Comments
Diane Abbott’s support for Jeremy Corbyn in doubt over Brexit vote
Shadow home secretary’s office unable to confirm intentions for Brexit negotiations after missing article 50 vote
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/04/diane-abbott-jeremy-corbyn-brexit-loyalty-vote-article-50
Has anyone pushed the idea that Trump is essentially a NY liberal recently?
As for Trump being a New York Liberal, I have to admit that was a hope of many of us, hoping he wouldn't be as bad as we feared.
Turns out he's even worse than feared.
"Now I have you with me, under my power
Our love grows stronger now with every hour
Look into my eyes, you'll see who I am
My name is Lucifer, please take my hand"
I was thinking I must have spent those years with my head well & truly in the sand (along with everyone else in my circles).
https://t.co/RiXj9togGz
http://www.markpack.org.uk/148257/lib-dems-greens-electoral-pact-broxtowe-county-council/
The Opinium tables for Scotland show the Tories on 23% with Labour on 17% - that represents a pro-Tory swing of 8% from Labour since 2015.
For England the figures are Tory 39% Labour 32% - a 7% lead matching the GB margin. In 2015 the Tory lead in England was 9.5% - so this data is suggesting a pro-Labour swing of 1.25% from the Tories.
https://t.co/RiXj9togGz
I'll give you a hint, I did a thread on it.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/09/13/corbyns-english-challenge/
England is not homogeneous for you to assume that 1.25% Con to Lab swing will be uniform all over England.
Don`t you know anything about FPTP, Dr Spyn?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/nigel-farage-rejects-maltese-affair-allegations-as-completely-innocent-9489977.html
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukip-leader-nigel-farage-handed-3247456
Geordie Greig vs Paul Dacre.
DM would never have run that story with that headline.
#SadManOnaTrain
I agree. Labour and Tories are MOE versus GE. Corbyn and Labour are not dead or dying. It is Tories who have done badly in local elections, not Labour.
His wife...not so much.
But Sunil J. Prasannan just laughs off claims that he only works to fund his trainspotting habit.
Now officially part of the resentful Brexit-leaning underclass!
Here are yougov's results:
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/lxi3dxkhp1/YG-Archive-Public-Affairs-Act-results-150413.pdf
PS. I will be going back to work by the end of February, albeit for a few weeks.
PPS. I have some grant applications pending, but won't hear back till the summer.
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/lxi3dxkhp1/YG-Archive-Public-Affairs-Act-results-150413.pdf
There's also this polling from America as well.
Almost one-third of Republican primary voters would support bombing the fictional kingdom of Agrabah, according to a report released by Public Policy Polling on Friday.
More than 530 Republican primary voters were polled this week on their support for Republican candidates and foreign policy issues including banning Muslims from entering the US, Japanese internment camps from the second world war and bombing Agrabah, the kingdom from Disney’s animated classic, Aladdin.
In its poll, Public Policy Polling asked the 532 Republicans: “Would you support or oppose bombing Agrabah?” While 57% of responders said they were not sure, 30% said they supported bombing it. Only 13% opposed it.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/dec/18/republican-voters-bomb-agrabah-disney-aladdin-donald-trump
[evil laughter echoes around PB.com!]
Fortunately for them, their snafu was caught by their quality control team, before the poll went into the field.
sign it Sunil "Believe. Be Leave!" Prasannan...
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
Those who have bet on Merkel staying on at short odds may wish to consider covering their positions (speaking as someone who saw it as a near-certainty). I still think she's the favourite, but probably should be 1.7-1.8 now.
I thought we were meant to be getting more outward looking with Brexit.
The Daily Mail now after UKIP now the Conservatives support leaving the EU.
More like the end is nigh for Abbott.
She is very hackneyed after all.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4192022/Nigel-Farage-sharing-pad-French-politician.html
She's a bit of a one, isn't she?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-38871526