Thanks Rob, hope things are going well your way too
Are you applying for EU funding? That would be delicious
I'm currently applying for matching EU funding for company expansion.
The local office is keen - almost desperate - to give the money away because if they don't give away enough this year they will get less to hand out next year. It's amazing really.
The German Social Democrat revival continues under their shiny new Europhile candidate - in the latest poll, only 4 points behind Merkel with a 6-point jump, which is VERY unusual in German polling. AfD, Greens and Left all slightly down in most recent polls.
Those who have bet on Merkel staying on at short odds may wish to consider covering their positions (speaking as someone who saw it as a near-certainty). I still think she's the favourite, but probably should be 1.7-1.8 now.
Schulz has clearly got a bounce but I suspect he will end up Deputy to Merkel in yet another CDU-SDP Coalition, even if the SDP pull ahead and he ends up Chancellor it will likely be the same in reverse. The AfD still third
Hmmm, the CDU may prefer the SDP but what about the CSU? They have been increasingly warming to the AfD - which means there's no guarantee that a grand coalition will have a majority, if the CSU decide they've had enough.
On the latest poll CDU+FDP=39% and SPD+Grune=37%. CDU/CSU+AfD would be on 44% which would still not be a majority either, nor even would SPD+Grune+Die Linke which would be on 45% so it is hard to see past CDU+SPD which has 62% and a comfortable majority.
A Tory 7% lead would be a swing of 0.2% from Lab to Con since May 2015. They would gain one seat - Chester - without any account being taken for first time incumbency.
Remind me what the seat changes would have been in 2015 if UNS had been accurate, especially in England?
.
That data should emerge in this poll tomorrow - but there has been evidence for a while that the strong Tory recovery in Scotland has been inflating their GB leads and probably somewhat distorting how well they are performing in England.
Thanks for that The Opinium tables for Scotland show the Tories on 23% with Labour on 17% - that represents a pro-Tory swing of 8% from Labour since 2015. For England the figures are Tory 39% Labour 32% - a 7% lead matching the GB margin. In 2015 the Tory lead in England was 9.5% - so this data is suggesting a pro-Labour swing of 1.25% from the Tories.
Given the final Opinium poll in
They obviously have not changed their methodology that much compared to other pollsters though as they consistently have Labour higher than other polling firms do. Now that does not mean they are incorrect but Copeland and Stoke will show us which is closer to reality
I believe that Survation and Mori have come up with similar figures - though the latter tend to be more volatile. Yougov and ICM have certainly been producing bigger Tory leads.ICM historically has tended to give lower Labour scores and higher LD scores than other pollsters - but Yougov appear to have picked up a drop in Labour support since September which has not been seen in the other polls. Even ICM has failed to do that.
Latest ICM and yougov have Labour on 26%
Indeed - but that is where they had Labour back in August/September!
A Tory 7% lead would be a swing of 0.2% from Lab to Con since May 2015. They would gain one seat - Chester - without any account being taken for first time incumbency.
Remind me what the seat changes would have been in 2015 if UNS had been accurate, especially in England?
.
That data should emerge in this poll tomorrow - but there has been evidence for a while that the strong Tory recovery in Scotland has been inflating their GB leads and probably somewhat distorting how well they are performing in England.
Thanks for that The Opinium tables for Scotland show the Tories on 23% with Labour on 17% - that represents a pro-Tory swing of 8% from Labour since 2015. For England the figures are Tory 39% Labour 32% - a 7% lead matching the GB margin. In 2015 the Tory lead in England was 9.5% - so this data is suggesting a pro-Labour swing of 1.25% from the Tories.
Given the final Opinium poll in
They obviously have not changed their methodology that much compared to other pollsters though as they consistently have Labour higher than other polling firms do. Now that does not mean they are incorrect but Copeland and Stoke will show us which is closer to reality
I believe that Survation and Mori have come up with similar figures - though the latter tend to be more volatile. Yougov and ICM have certainly been producing bigger Tory leads.ICM historically has tended to give lower Labour scores and higher LD scores than other pollsters - but Yougov appear to have picked up a drop in Labour support since September which has not been seen in the other polls. Even ICM has failed to do that.
Latest ICM and yougov have Labour on 26%
Indeed - but that is where they had Labour back in August/September!
Still 9% and 8% below their final ratings for Labour under Ed Miliband though. Goodnight
A Tory 7% lead would be a swing of 0.2% from Lab to Con since May 2015. They would gain one seat - Chester - without any account being taken for first time incumbency.
Remind me what the seat changes would have been in 2015 if UNS had been accurate, especially in England?
.
That data should emerge in this poll tomorrow - but there has been evidence for a while that the strong Tory recovery in Scotland has been inflating their GB leads and probably somewhat distorting how well they are performing in England.
Thanks for that The Opinium tables for Scotland show the Tories on 23% with Labour on 17% - that represents a pro-Tory swing of 8% from Labour since 2015. For England the figures are Tory 39% Labour 32% - a 7% lead matching the GB margin. In 2015 the Tory lead in England was 9.5% - so this data is suggesting a pro-Labour swing of 1.25% from the Tories.
Given the final Opinium poll in
They obviously have not changed their methodology that much compared to other pollsters though as they consistently have Labour higher than other polling firms do. Now that does not mean they are incorrect but Copeland and Stoke will show us which is closer to reality
I believe that Survation and Mori have come up with similar figures - though the latter tend to be more volatile. Yougov and ICM have certainly been producing bigger Tory leads.ICM historically has tended to give lower Labour scores and higher LD scores than other pollsters - but Yougov appear to have picked up a drop in Labour support since September which has not been seen in the other polls. Even ICM has failed to do that.
Latest ICM and yougov have Labour on 26%
Indeed - but that is where they had Labour back in August/September!
Still 9% and 8% below their final ratings for Labour under Ed Miliband though. Goodnight
And they have changed their methodology in the interim so like is not being compared with like!
A Tory 7% lead would be a swing of 0.2% from Lab to Con since May 2015. They would gain one seat - Chester - without any account being taken for first time incumbency.
Remind me what the seat changes would have been in 2015 if UNS had been accurate, especially in England?
.
That data should emerge in this poll tomorrow - but there has been evidence for a while that the strong Tory recovery in Scotland has been inflating their GB leads and probably somewhat distorting how well they are performing in England.
Thanks for that The Opinium tables for Scotland show the Tories on 23% with Labour on 17% - that represents a pro-Tory swing of 8% from Labour since 2015. For England the figures are Tory 39% Labour 32% - a 7% lead matching the GB margin. In 2015 the Tory lead in England was 9.5% - so this data is suggesting a pro-Labour swing of 1.25% from the Tories.
Given the final Opinium poll in
They obviously have not changed their methodology that much compared to other pollsters though as they consistently have Labour higher than other polling firms do. Now that does not mean they are incorrect but Copeland and Stoke will show us which is closer to reality
I believe that Survation and Mori have come up with similar figures - though the latter tend to be more volatile. Yougov and ICM have certainly been producing bigger Tory leads.ICM historically has tended to give lower Labour scores and higher LD scores than other pollsters - but Yougov appear to have picked up a drop in Labour support since September which has not been seen in the other polls. Even ICM has failed to do that.
Latest ICM and yougov have Labour on 26%
Indeed - but that is where they had Labour back in August/September!
Still 9% and 8% below their final ratings for Labour under Ed Miliband though. Goodnight
And they have changed their methodology in the interim so like is not being compared with like!
Well given they overestimated Labour by 4% and 3% respectively in 2015 it is actually the new polls which are more likely to be accurate
A Tory 7% lead would be a swing of 0.2% from Lab to Con since May 2015. They would gain one seat - Chester - without any account being taken for first time incumbency.
Remind me what the seat changes would have been in 2015 if UNS had been accurate, especially in England?
.
That data should emerge in this poll tomorrow - but there has been evidence for a while that the strong Tory recovery in Scotland has been inflating their GB leads and probably somewhat distorting how well they are performing in England.
Thanks for that The Opinium tables for Scotland show the Tories on 23% with Labour on 17% - that represents a pro-Tory swing of 8% from Labour since 2015. For England the figures are Tory 39% Labour 32% - a 7% lead matching the GB margin. In 2015 the Tory lead in England was 9.5% - so this data is suggesting a pro-Labour swing of 1.25% from the Tories.
Given the final Opinium poll in
They obviously have not changed their methodology that much compared to other pollsters though as they consistently have Labour higher than other polling firms do. Now that does not mean they are incorrect but Copeland and Stoke will show us which is closer to reality
Latest ICM and yougov have Labour on 26%
Indeed - but that is where they had Labour back in August/September!
Still 9% and 8% below their final ratings for Labour under Ed Miliband though. Goodnight
And they have changed their methodology in the interim so like is not being compared with like!
Well given they overestimated Labour by 4% and 3% respectively in 2015 it is actually the new polls which are more likely to be accurate
Despite concerns that the prime minister’s attempts to negotiate a free trade deal with the US could involve unpopular compromises on public ownership of the NHS and food safety, a majority of voters (55%) believe May is strong enough to stand up for the UK’s interests while Trump is president. Less than one in four (22%) said the same of Corbyn.
A Tory 7% lead would be a swing of 0.2% from Lab to Con since May 2015. They would gain one seat - Chester - without any account being taken of first time incumbency.
But you don't think the Tories will impose a three line whip with threats of deselection to get the boundaries through?
As double acts go Wishart and Nicolson are less Montrose and MacEwen than Abbott and Costello. Wishart, a walking snarl, is the former keyboard player in Runrig whose greatest achievement as an MP is being the former keyboard player in Runrig. A BBC broadcaster whose career stalled — columnist Euan McColm memorably compared him to “an Eddie Mair tribute act playing matinees at Pontins” — Nicolson changed tack and went into politics, entering Parliament in 2015.
Hmmm, the CDU may prefer the SDP but what about the CSU? They have been increasingly warming to the AfD - which means there's no guarantee that a grand coalition will have a majority, if the CSU decide they've had enough.
They won't. The CSU are like the Tory right - they grumble loudly from time to time, but they never actually defect, unless you count Carswell and Powell.
Comments
The local office is keen - almost desperate - to give the money away because if they don't give away enough this year they will get less to hand out next year. It's amazing really.
If PB train lovers are skint......
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/travel_news/article-4185200/How-slash-train-fare-ticket-splitting-hacks.html
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/04/two-thirds-of-britons-believe-trump-is-threat-to-international-stability
As double acts go Wishart and Nicolson are less Montrose and MacEwen than Abbott and Costello. Wishart, a walking snarl, is the former keyboard player in Runrig whose greatest achievement as an MP is being the former keyboard player in Runrig. A BBC broadcaster whose career stalled — columnist Euan McColm memorably compared him to “an Eddie Mair tribute act playing matinees at Pontins” — Nicolson changed tack and went into politics, entering Parliament in 2015.
https://stephendaisley.com/2017/02/04/snp-tried-to-silence-me-and-their-freedom-to-bully-vilify-and-malign-is-a-chilling-glimpse-of-one-party-scotland/
Or been silenced......