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SystemSystem Posts: 12,681
edited January 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP’s leader, Doc Nuttall, no longer odds-on favourite to take Stoke Central

There’s been a change in the Stoke central by-election betting with renewed interest in LAB and the move to Paul Nuttall, the UKIP leader, easing off.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited January 2017
    first like Labour in Stoke and Copeland!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    second best like liverpool...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,165
    A winged helmet.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/825330062547415040

    Donald must drink Red Bull.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,608
    edited January 2017
    Well they are odds on with every bookmaker, but on Betfair it is now 2.06 UKIP, and the money has come back for Labour

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/stoke-on-trent-central-by-election/winning-party

    As I keep saying, a great betting heat. The range of prices traded on each party is quite extraordinary
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,064
    Do Labour supporters want Labour to lose to hasten Corbyn's departure or is the horror of Doc Nuttall MP. too awful?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I still think Nuttall is too short.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,908
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I still think Nuttall is too short.

    Not as short as Putin or Sadiq, Mr Dancer?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,873
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    second best like liverpool...

    How are they 2-0 down on 80% possession???
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Roger said:

    Do Labour supporters want Labour to lose to hasten Corbyn's departure or is the horror of Doc Nuttall MP. too awful?

    Labour supporters may well be keen to get Corbyn to move on, but not at the price of losing the seat.

    Snell tweeted:

    https://twitter.com/gareth_snell/status/825298803074940928

    It doesn't look like a room ful of Islingtonites.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    Roger said:

    Do Labour supporters want Labour to lose to hasten Corbyn's departure or is the horror of Doc Nuttall MP. too awful?

    I think losing Copeland to the tories would be a better rebuttal of Corbyn. I'm hoping they hang on in Stoke (or a miraculous LD win!) and lose Copeland. Having Nuttall in parliament will give much needed oxygen to UKIP, which Labour definitely don't want.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    Dr. Prasannan, or Ecclestone. But you know what I mean.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    LD's crack in-form by-election team's hit a brick wall in the Potteries. Back to irrelevance.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,608
    MarqueeMark said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    second best like liverpool...

    How are they 2-0 down on 80% possession???
    Going 1-0 down in the first minute a lot to do with that
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,254
    MarqueeMark said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    second best like liverpool...

    How are they 2-0 down on 80% possession???
    That 80% of possession has so far resulted in two shots on target - the same as Wolves have achieved with a quarter of Liverpool's possession.

    Its not what you've got that matters but what you do with it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,916
    Roger said:

    Do Labour supporters want Labour to lose to hasten Corbyn's departure or is the horror of Doc Nuttall MP. too awful?

    Perhaps you could try basing your opinion on the candidate - which one would you like in Parliament?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    Jezza having some problems with PA.

    https://twitter.com/DavidWilcockPA/status/825330326050373633
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    PA video of Corbyn in Stoke.

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/825343181189423104
  • glwglw Posts: 10,511
    dr_spyn said:

    Jezza having some problems with PA.

    https://twitter.com/DavidWilcockPA/status/825330326050373633

    To be authentically Trumpish Corybn needs to tweet about "Failing PA. Sad."
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited January 2017
    :lol:

    No Prisoners Saint
    In case anyone missed it, Trump bought the domain Pussyhat https://t.co/ThbcEH5bly and redirected to the White House. #Classic
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    PlatoSaid said:

    :lol:

    No Prisoners Saint
    In case anyone missed it, Trump bought the domain Pussyhat https://t.co/ThbcEH5bly and redirected to the White House. #Classic

    https://twitter.com/benjancewicz/status/825158753414680576
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    An army of trolls is taking Fillon down. This Buzzfeed article is informative. They refer to the "Great Liberation of France", which is hosted on Discord, the alt-right chat platform. They favour politicians who in their terminology will "remove kebab". They don't use that phrase much in public, not the way they do with "cuck" or, in the US, "you're fired". What's going on is horribly unpleasant, in France as in the US. The line in this scene is that Russian-backed far-right politicians should get a big troll support effort.

    Soon they will target Macron. It wouldn't surprise me if he was videoed at some of the restaurants. Whatever's needed. He'll go into the vote wounded, same as Clinton.

    Russia Today are saying Fillon is being targeted because he is "Russophile". Yeah, right.

    There are two big troll armies in this world. At the moment they seem to be cooperating.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    glw said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Jezza having some problems with PA.

    https://twitter.com/DavidWilcockPA/status/825330326050373633

    To be authentically Trumpish Corybn needs to tweet about "Failing PA. Sad."
    He would have been happier talking to Press TV.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    foxinsoxuk said:

    first like Labour in Stoke and Copeland!

    Only if they pull their sox up.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Dromedary said:

    An army of trolls is taking Fillon down. This Buzzfeed article is informative. They refer to the "Great Liberation of France", which is hosted on Discord, the alt-right chat platform. They favour politicians who in their terminology will "remove kebab". They don't use that phrase much in public, not the way they do with "cuck" or, in the US, "you're fired". What's going on is horribly unpleasant, in France as in the US. The line in this scene is that Russian-backed far-right politicians should get a big troll support effort.

    Soon they will target Macron. It wouldn't surprise me if he was videoed at some of the restaurants. Whatever's needed. He'll go into the vote wounded, same as Clinton.

    Russia Today are saying Fillon is being targeted because he is "Russophile". Yeah, right.

    There are two big troll armies in this world. At the moment they seem to be cooperating.

    Bizarre. 'Remove kebab' is Europa Universalis (that's a Paradox grand strategy videogame for the non-hepcats among us) slang for defeating the Ottomans.

    Point of order though, Discord is incredibly popular in the gaming world, particularly the streaming community. It isn't inherently left or right wing. It's just better than Skype or Teamspeak etc for multi-cast voice & chat.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,908
    glw said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Jezza having some problems with PA.

    https://twitter.com/DavidWilcockPA/status/825330326050373633

    To be authentically Trumpish Corybn needs to tweet about "Failing PA. Sad."
    Declined to speak? #AlternativeFacts
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    PlatoSaid said:

    :lol:
    No Prisoners Saint
    In case anyone missed it, Trump bought the domain Pussyhat https://t.co/ThbcEH5bly and redirected to the White House. #Classic

    How do you know it was Trump who bought it? The owner's name is not public. The proxy registrant is Whois Privacy Services, based in Australia.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/rupertmyers/status/825270742770147329
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,376
    I find it quite bizarre that UKIP were ever favourites for this seat. I expect a pretty comfortable Labour hold on a very low turnout.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @LukwesaBurak: BREAKING: UK's BAE Systems signs deal with Turkey's national aerospace firm to develop new generation of Turkish fighter jets. @BBCNews
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    DavidL said:

    I find it quite bizarre that UKIP were ever favourites for this seat. I expect a pretty comfortable Labour hold on a very low turnout.

    Have you seen Labour's candidate, Snell ? Unprepossessing and uninspiring even by their dismal standards.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    For those of you who follow horses.

    https://twitter.com/BBCSport/status/825353101381136384
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    DavidL said:

    I find it quite bizarre that UKIP were ever favourites for this seat. I expect a pretty comfortable Labour hold on a very low turnout.

    Have you seen Labour's candidate, Snell ? Unprepossessing and uninspiring even by their dismal standards.
    He is a complete twat, based on his Twitter history (the 21st century window into a man's soul). Labour testing the 'donkey with a red rosette' theory to destruction, apparently.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    DavidL said:

    I find it quite bizarre that UKIP were ever favourites for this seat. I expect a pretty comfortable Labour hold on a very low turnout.

    I'd expect turnout to be better than 'very low', even accepting the Stoke Central baseline. I'd be surprised if it's not in the 30s. On that basis, Labour should hold. If it is sub-25, UKIP will stand a good chance. Mike's point is right though: UKIP are not very good at election campaigning and are short of important data which will matter.

    DavidL is quite right that it's bizarre that UKIP were ever favourites given these drags on their vote share and where they're starting from. Personally, I reckon they should be nearer 2/1.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,376
    david_herdson said:

    DavidL said:

    I find it quite bizarre that UKIP were ever favourites for this seat. I expect a pretty comfortable Labour hold on a very low turnout.

    I'd expect turnout to be better than 'very low', even accepting the Stoke Central baseline. I'd be surprised if it's not in the 30s. On that basis, Labour should hold. If it is sub-25, UKIP will stand a good chance. Mike's point is right though: UKIP are not very good at election campaigning and are short of important data which will matter.

    DavidL is quite right that it's bizarre that UKIP were ever favourites given these drags on their vote share and where they're starting from. Personally, I reckon they should be nearer 2/1.
    Oh yes, I was not suggesting anything lower than 30%. In the 30s is very low for a Parliamentary vote.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Scott_P said:

    @LukwesaBurak: BREAKING: UK's BAE Systems signs deal with Turkey's national aerospace firm to develop new generation of Turkish fighter jets. @BBCNews

    They will be used to bomb Kurds in Syria?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,376
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    DavidL said:

    I find it quite bizarre that UKIP were ever favourites for this seat. I expect a pretty comfortable Labour hold on a very low turnout.

    Have you seen Labour's candidate, Snell ? Unprepossessing and uninspiring even by their dismal standards.
    Doesn't matter. This is donkey territory and he just about makes the grade for that.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Scott_P said:

    @LukwesaBurak: BREAKING: UK's BAE Systems signs deal with Turkey's national aerospace firm to develop new generation of Turkish fighter jets. @BBCNews

    Post-Brexit trade mission not going well then...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    interesting front page in Whitehaven:

    Local news for Local people.

    https://twitter.com/kmxnsxn/status/821845810962898944
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,043
    Scott_P said:

    @LukwesaBurak: BREAKING: UK's BAE Systems signs deal with Turkey's national aerospace firm to develop new generation of Turkish fighter jets. @BBCNews

    I wonder if it's just a reannouncement of the following, or if we've gone deeper / it's something else:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TAI_TFX
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    DavidL said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    DavidL said:

    I find it quite bizarre that UKIP were ever favourites for this seat. I expect a pretty comfortable Labour hold on a very low turnout.

    Have you seen Labour's candidate, Snell ? Unprepossessing and uninspiring even by their dismal standards.
    Doesn't matter. This is donkey territory and he just about makes the grade for that.
    Stoke voters will enjoy much " Capital of Brexit " glamour with Nuttall. Snell radiates inertia.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    foxinsoxuk said:

    interesting front page in Whitehaven:

    Local news for Local people.

    https://twitter.com/kmxnsxn/status/821845810962898944

    On behalf of the Copeland Labour party.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    DavidL said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    DavidL said:

    I find it quite bizarre that UKIP were ever favourites for this seat. I expect a pretty comfortable Labour hold on a very low turnout.

    Have you seen Labour's candidate, Snell ? Unprepossessing and uninspiring even by their dismal standards.
    Doesn't matter. This is donkey territory and he just about makes the grade for that.
    Stoke voters will enjoy much " Capital of Brexit " glamour with Nuttall. Snell radiates inertia.
    Nuttall will lose, and still be unable to find Stoke on the map, let alone make it the capital of anything other than pottery.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    John_M said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    DavidL said:

    I find it quite bizarre that UKIP were ever favourites for this seat. I expect a pretty comfortable Labour hold on a very low turnout.

    Have you seen Labour's candidate, Snell ? Unprepossessing and uninspiring even by their dismal standards.
    He is a complete twat, based on his Twitter history (the 21st century window into a man's soul). Labour testing the 'donkey with a red rosette' theory to destruction, apparently.
    DavidL said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    DavidL said:

    I find it quite bizarre that UKIP were ever favourites for this seat. I expect a pretty comfortable Labour hold on a very low turnout.

    Have you seen Labour's candidate, Snell ? Unprepossessing and uninspiring even by their dismal standards.
    Doesn't matter. This is donkey territory and he just about makes the grade for that.
    LOL.
  • TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    Trump is doing a sterling job, keeping all the mass murdering, Google employed Muslims out of the US. Now he just needs to kick out all the toddlers who pick up their parent's guns and shoot people.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    nunu said:

    Scott_P said:

    @LukwesaBurak: BREAKING: UK's BAE Systems signs deal with Turkey's national aerospace firm to develop new generation of Turkish fighter jets. @BBCNews

    They will be used to bomb Kurds in Syria?
    Have you ever dealt with BAE? By the time they've developed anything, we'll all be living on Mars.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,966
    John_M said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    DavidL said:

    I find it quite bizarre that UKIP were ever favourites for this seat. I expect a pretty comfortable Labour hold on a very low turnout.

    Have you seen Labour's candidate, Snell ? Unprepossessing and uninspiring even by their dismal standards.
    He is a complete twat, based on his Twitter history (the 21st century window into a man's soul). Labour testing the 'donkey with a red rosette' theory to destruction, apparently.
    They will crack but not break said theory, with Nuttall a close-ish second.

    If UKIP were able to mount a decent ground campaign they could win this, but they can't so they won't.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    nunu said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    interesting front page in Whitehaven:

    Local news for Local people.

    https://twitter.com/kmxnsxn/status/821845810962898944

    On behalf of the Copeland Labour party.
    It will be on a lot of doorsteps though, and not straight in the bin like political leaflets.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Essexit said:

    John_M said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    DavidL said:

    I find it quite bizarre that UKIP were ever favourites for this seat. I expect a pretty comfortable Labour hold on a very low turnout.

    Have you seen Labour's candidate, Snell ? Unprepossessing and uninspiring even by their dismal standards.
    He is a complete twat, based on his Twitter history (the 21st century window into a man's soul). Labour testing the 'donkey with a red rosette' theory to destruction, apparently.
    They will crack but not break said theory, with Nuttall a close-ish second.

    If UKIP were able to mount a decent ground campaign they could win this, but they can't so they won't.
    Tories in Second, UKIP going backwards.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,043
    SimonStClare said:

    Scott_P said:

    @LukwesaBurak: BREAKING: UK's BAE Systems signs deal with Turkey's national aerospace firm to develop new generation of Turkish fighter jets. @BBCNews

    Post-Brexit trade mission not going well then...
    To be fair, if this is just the existing program then it's not that much trade. Now, if she'd managed to persuade them to buy some of our Tranche-1 Eurofighters ... ;)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SimonStClare said:

    Post-Brexit trade mission not going well then...

    Is this one of those trade deals the Brexiteers told us we were prevented from signing as a member of the EU?

    Oh, wait...
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,831
    Interesting discussion on WC people in the previous thread. So I wonder if PBers see WWC people who feel that immigration is the reason why their wages are stagnating as 'blaming society for their own failures'? Or are only certain groups of WC worthy of a hearing, while others don't deserve one?
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    foxinsoxuk said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    DavidL said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    DavidL said:

    I find it quite bizarre that UKIP were ever favourites for this seat. I expect a pretty comfortable Labour hold on a very low turnout.

    Have you seen Labour's candidate, Snell ? Unprepossessing and uninspiring even by their dismal standards.
    Doesn't matter. This is donkey territory and he just about makes the grade for that.
    Stoke voters will enjoy much " Capital of Brexit " glamour with Nuttall. Snell radiates inertia.
    Nuttall will lose, and still be unable to find Stoke on the map, let alone make it the capital of anything other than pottery.
    Your prognosistic faculties are emotively deranged. Nuttall to take the Capital of Brexit handily.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,908
    edited January 2017
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    DavidL said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    DavidL said:

    I find it quite bizarre that UKIP were ever favourites for this seat. I expect a pretty comfortable Labour hold on a very low turnout.

    Have you seen Labour's candidate, Snell ? Unprepossessing and uninspiring even by their dismal standards.
    Doesn't matter. This is donkey territory and he just about makes the grade for that.
    Stoke voters will enjoy much " Capital of Brexit " glamour with Nuttall. Snell radiates inertia.
    Nuttall will lose, and still be unable to find Stoke on the map, let alone make it the capital of anything other than pottery.
    Your prognosistic faculties are emotively deranged. Nuttall to take the Capital of Brexit handily.
    Boston is capital of Brexit = 76% LEAVE!

    Stoke managed a measly 69% :lol:

    #AlternativeFacts
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/profbriancox/status/825334211833892864
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    DavidL said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    DavidL said:

    I find it quite bizarre that UKIP were ever favourites for this seat. I expect a pretty comfortable Labour hold on a very low turnout.

    Have you seen Labour's candidate, Snell ? Unprepossessing and uninspiring even by their dismal standards.
    Doesn't matter. This is donkey territory and he just about makes the grade for that.
    Stoke voters will enjoy much " Capital of Brexit " glamour with Nuttall. Snell radiates inertia.
    Nuttall will lose, and still be unable to find Stoke on the map, let alone make it the capital of anything other than pottery.
    Your prognosistic faculties are emotively deranged. Nuttall to take the Capital of Brexit handily.
    Boston is capital of Brexit = 76% LEAVE!

    Stoke managed a measly 69% :lol:

    #AlternativeFacts
    Hanretty estimates Stoke Central as 65% leave. It is the Capital of Brexit in the same way Luton is the capital of England.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,908
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/profbriancox/status/825334211833892864

    Euratom participation by long-term EU member Switzerland?
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    DavidL said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    DavidL said:

    I find it quite bizarre that UKIP were ever favourites for this seat. I expect a pretty comfortable Labour hold on a very low turnout.

    Have you seen Labour's candidate, Snell ? Unprepossessing and uninspiring even by their dismal standards.
    Doesn't matter. This is donkey territory and he just about makes the grade for that.
    Stoke voters will enjoy much " Capital of Brexit " glamour with Nuttall. Snell radiates inertia.
    Nuttall will lose, and still be unable to find Stoke on the map, let alone make it the capital of anything other than pottery.
    Your prognosistic faculties are emotively deranged. Nuttall to take the Capital of Brexit handily.
    Boston is capital of Brexit = 76% LEAVE!

    Stoke managed a measly 69% :lol:

    #AlternativeFacts
    Boston was the Geoff Hurst but Stoke the Bobby Moore. Our Captain and Capital.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/profbriancox/status/825334211833892864

    Isn't ITER an example of a program that we would likely continue working on/contributing to? I think the reason for the Euratom pull out is due to the link with the ECJ.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Scott_P said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Post-Brexit trade mission not going well then...

    Is this one of those trade deals the Brexiteers told us we were prevented from signing as a member of the EU?

    Oh, wait...
    Did I hit a nreve..! :lol:
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited January 2017
    As the US dictator issues a decree banning entry to the US by people coming from Syria or Iraq, and by refugees wherever they come from, here's a reminder that before he took office he promised to

    ● "bomb the shit" out of areas of Syria and Iraq
    ● "blow up every single inch"
    ● arrange a big contract there for Exxon
    ● take the oil, and
    ● "ring" the region.

    Such a horrific attack would cause many, many more people to become refugees in the region than already are.

    What does it mean to "ring" somewhere? What happens to people inside the ring? It doesn't sound as though the plan is to let them out. Will the "kebab" be "removed"?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWejiXvd-P8

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    edited January 2017
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/profbriancox/status/825334211833892864

    Euratom participation by long-term EU member Switzerland?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-fddd9rQjY

    Brexit MEANS BREXIT Sunil.

    The country voted to leave, and all that other EU nonsense

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezib57ztua8

    "Sounds like a UKIP conference speech !"

    Not half cocked leavers like Switzerland or Norway. PROPER LEAVING FOR PROPER PEOPLE !
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Interesting discussion on WC people in the previous thread. So I wonder if PBers see WWC people who feel that immigration is the reason why their wages are stagnating as 'blaming society for their own failures'? Or are only certain groups of WC worthy of a hearing, while others don't deserve one?

    It's human nature to blame others for our own shortcomings, real or imagined. It's a long time since I lived cheek by jowl with genuinely poor people (Beeston, Leeds in the middle/late 80s), so I can't claim any recent insight.

    This is platitudinous, but of course we should give everyone a hearing. There's no happy ending if we just gesture at a tranche of society, tell them to 'git gud' , give them a pittance in welfare and call it job done.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited January 2017
    Scott_P said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Post-Brexit trade mission not going well then...

    Is this one of those trade deals the Brexiteers told us we were prevented from signing as a member of the EU?

    Oh, wait...
    I guess the EU will have to expel us now we're ignoring their diktats.
    Oh wait.....
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,908
    Pulpstar said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/profbriancox/status/825334211833892864

    Euratom participation by long-term EU member Switzerland?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-fddd9rQjY

    Brexit MEANS BREXIT Sunil.

    The country voted to leave, and all that other EU nonsense

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezib57ztua8

    "Sounds like a UKIP conference speech !"

    Not half cocked leavers like Switzerland or Norway. PROPER LEAVING FOR PROPER PEOPLE !
    No, it's PROPER Brexit for PROPER People!

    Switzerland is an ASSOCIATED member of Euratom, BTW!!!
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited January 2017
    On the Stoke betting, I've been keeping the field onside until now by laying @ 99.x% book, rather than backing.

    If one of the more popular city independents had thrown their hat into the ring - or Denise Coates put her name forward - then the betting could have been really shaken up.

    A bit late now, I think.

    When is the last date for names to get on the ballot?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,693
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/profbriancox/status/825334211833892864

    Euratom participation by long-term EU member Switzerland?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-fddd9rQjY

    Brexit MEANS BREXIT Sunil.

    The country voted to leave, and all that other EU nonsense

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezib57ztua8

    "Sounds like a UKIP conference speech !"

    Not half cocked leavers like Switzerland or Norway. PROPER LEAVING FOR PROPER PEOPLE !
    No, it's PROPER Brexit for PROPER People!

    Switzerland is an ASSOCIATED member of Euratom, BTW!!!
    How does that ‘association’ work and will the other members want another ‘associate'?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,654
    Brexit capital or no, if UKIP can't win in Stoke with their leader standing, they won't win any Labour seats. Their much publicised Northern breakthrough will last as long as Jurgen Klopp's wonder side. Will have to go back to pestering Tories on the East coast.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    DavidL said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    DavidL said:

    I find it quite bizarre that UKIP were ever favourites for this seat. I expect a pretty comfortable Labour hold on a very low turnout.

    Have you seen Labour's candidate, Snell ? Unprepossessing and uninspiring even by their dismal standards.
    Doesn't matter. This is donkey territory and he just about makes the grade for that.
    Stoke voters will enjoy much " Capital of Brexit " glamour with Nuttall. Snell radiates inertia.
    Nuttall will lose, and still be unable to find Stoke on the map, let alone make it the capital of anything other than pottery.
    Your prognosistic faculties are emotively deranged. Nuttall to take the Capital of Brexit handily.
    I disagree, and think the 8/1 that Ladbrokes have on UKIP below 20% is good value.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    Dr. Foxinsox, I agree UKIP are unlikely to win. Not sure they'll be below 20% but in a four way contest that's definitely possible. Hmm.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Scott_P said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Post-Brexit trade mission not going well then...

    Is this one of those trade deals the Brexiteers told us we were prevented from signing as a member of the EU?

    Oh, wait...
    I guess the EU will have to expel us now we're ignoring their diktats.
    Oh wait.....
    Scott's struggling to discern the difference between day to day commerce and FTAs. Probably just a bit tired.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    OldKingCole said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/profbriancox/status/825334211833892864

    Euratom participation by long-term EU member Switzerland?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-fddd9rQjY

    Brexit MEANS BREXIT Sunil.

    The country voted to leave, and all that other EU nonsense

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezib57ztua8

    "Sounds like a UKIP conference speech !"

    Not half cocked leavers like Switzerland or Norway. PROPER LEAVING FOR PROPER PEOPLE !
    No, it's PROPER Brexit for PROPER People!

    Switzerland is an ASSOCIATED member of Euratom, BTW!!!
    How does that ‘association’ work and will the other members want another ‘associate'?
    I think this is a case of DYOR.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Blimey... are we the new Liverpool?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Our host does well to avoid the phrase "ground game".

    I'm betting against UKIP until they start showing they can win seats through by-elections. Their track record is dismal.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    dixiedean said:

    Brexit capital or no, if UKIP can't win in Stoke with their leader standing, they won't win any Labour seats. Their much publicised Northern breakthrough will last as long as Jurgen Klopp's wonder side. Will have to go back to pestering Tories on the East coast.

    Yep, this is their Gettysburg. Weak local candidate vs party leader. Strong Leave vote. Labour leader madder by the day. If they can't win Stoke, we can stick a fork in 'em and call it done.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,693
    John_M said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/profbriancox/status/825334211833892864

    Euratom participation by long-term EU member Switzerland?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-fddd9rQjY

    Brexit MEANS BREXIT Sunil.

    The country voted to leave, and all that other EU nonsense

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezib57ztua8

    "Sounds like a UKIP conference speech !"

    Not half cocked leavers like Switzerland or Norway. PROPER LEAVING FOR PROPER PEOPLE !
    No, it's PROPER Brexit for PROPER People!

    Switzerland is an ASSOCIATED member of Euratom, BTW!!!
    How does that ‘association’ work and will the other members want another ‘associate'?
    I think this is a case of DYOR.
    You never know, Mr M; surprising what can be found out by asking here!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    A Labour rebel writes:

    https://twitter.com/heidi_mp/status/825296626017263616
  • isamisam Posts: 42,608
    edited January 2017
    John_M said:

    dixiedean said:

    Brexit capital or no, if UKIP can't win in Stoke with their leader standing, they won't win any Labour seats. Their much publicised Northern breakthrough will last as long as Jurgen Klopp's wonder side. Will have to go back to pestering Tories on the East coast.

    Yep, this is their Gettysburg. Weak local candidate vs party leader. Strong Leave vote. Labour leader madder by the day. If they can't win Stoke, we can stick a fork in 'em and call it done.
    Probably true.

    In recent by elections, the only ones UKIP had a hope of winning were Clacton and Rochester, which they won. No others were winnable (H&M was a massive surprise 2nd). Sure, UKIP haters tried to make it seem like all their 2nds were failures, but that was partisan nonsense.

    This one, though is winnable and would be a failure if they lost.

    Everyone on this site said Reckless would lose the Rochester By Election though, and a few cast doubt on Carswell in Clacton! Par for the course, so don't pay too much attention.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,654
    isam said:

    John_M said:

    dixiedean said:

    Brexit capital or no, if UKIP can't win in Stoke with their leader standing, they won't win any Labour seats. Their much publicised Northern breakthrough will last as long as Jurgen Klopp's wonder side. Will have to go back to pestering Tories on the East coast.

    Yep, this is their Gettysburg. Weak local candidate vs party leader. Strong Leave vote. Labour leader madder by the day. If they can't win Stoke, we can stick a fork in 'em and call it done.
    Probably true.

    In recent by elections the only ones UKIP had a hope of winning were Clacton and Rochester. No others were winnable. Sure, UKIP haters tried to make it seem like all their 2nds were failures, but that was partisan nonsense.

    This one, though is winnable and would be a failure if they lost.

    Everyone on this site said Reckless would lose the Rochester By Election though, and a few cast doubt on Carswell in Clacton! Par for the course
    Heywood and Middleton? Sure it was a surprise they came so close, but it was certainly "winnable."
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited January 2017
    OldKingCole said:

    John_M said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/profbriancox/status/825334211833892864

    Euratom participation by long-term EU member Switzerland?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-fddd9rQjY

    Brexit MEANS BREXIT Sunil.

    The country voted to leave, and all that other EU nonsense

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezib57ztua8

    "Sounds like a UKIP conference speech !"

    Not half cocked leavers like Switzerland or Norway. PROPER LEAVING FOR PROPER PEOPLE !
    No, it's PROPER Brexit for PROPER People!

    Switzerland is an ASSOCIATED member of Euratom, BTW!!!
    How does that ‘association’ work and will the other members want another ‘associate'?
    I think this is a case of DYOR.
    You never know, Mr M; surprising what can be found out by asking here!
    I apologise, that came across as a bit shirty. Please forgive my testiness!

    As a mild penance, I can testify that this whole field is littered with alphabetti-spaghetti agencies, and a web of bilateral and multilateral agreements, both regional and global. That doesn't provide you with an answer, but I can at least point you at:

    http://ec.europa.eu/research/energy/euratom/index_en.cfm?pg=coop
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,798
    edited January 2017
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    No, it's PROPER Brexit for PROPER People!

    Switzerland is an ASSOCIATED member of Euratom, BTW!!!

    More like A Local Brexit for Local People: there's nothing for you here, young Dr Sunil...

    Anyhoo, I came here because of our previous discussion regarding the orientation of Serbia: I argued that Serbia was historically allied with Russia, you pointed to Serbia's EU bid.

    I was reading Jane's Defense Weekly and noted this article: http://www.janes.com/article/66503/russia-to-donate-mig-29s-t-72s-to-serbia

    The disadvantage of Brexit. Pause. One of the disadvantages of Brexit. Pause. One of the many disadvantages of Brexit. Pause. One of the ginormous disadvantage clusterfuck that is Brexit...is that while we're crawling up our own bottom trying to disentangle ourselves from the EU, we have no resources left over to do anything useful. One of those useful things is keeping an eye on the Balkans...
  • isamisam Posts: 42,608
    edited January 2017
    dixiedean said:

    isam said:

    John_M said:

    dixiedean said:

    Brexit capital or no, if UKIP can't win in Stoke with their leader standing, they won't win any Labour seats. Their much publicised Northern breakthrough will last as long as Jurgen Klopp's wonder side. Will have to go back to pestering Tories on the East coast.

    Yep, this is their Gettysburg. Weak local candidate vs party leader. Strong Leave vote. Labour leader madder by the day. If they can't win Stoke, we can stick a fork in 'em and call it done.
    Probably true.

    In recent by elections the only ones UKIP had a hope of winning were Clacton and Rochester. No others were winnable. Sure, UKIP haters tried to make it seem like all their 2nds were failures, but that was partisan nonsense.

    This one, though is winnable and would be a failure if they lost.

    Everyone on this site said Reckless would lose the Rochester By Election though, and a few cast doubt on Carswell in Clacton! Par for the course
    Heywood and Middleton? Sure it was a surprise they came so close, but it was certainly "winnable."
    I edited to include that! It was winnable in hindsight I guess, but they were massive outsiders by polling day, about 14/1 I think. Labour went 1.02 on Betfair by the night

    Also they did very little campaigning, so yeah fair do's it was winnable
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,654
    isam said:

    dixiedean said:

    isam said:

    John_M said:

    dixiedean said:

    Brexit capital or no, if UKIP can't win in Stoke with their leader standing, they won't win any Labour seats. Their much publicised Northern breakthrough will last as long as Jurgen Klopp's wonder side. Will have to go back to pestering Tories on the East coast.

    Yep, this is their Gettysburg. Weak local candidate vs party leader. Strong Leave vote. Labour leader madder by the day. If they can't win Stoke, we can stick a fork in 'em and call it done.
    Probably true.

    In recent by elections the only ones UKIP had a hope of winning were Clacton and Rochester. No others were winnable. Sure, UKIP haters tried to make it seem like all their 2nds were failures, but that was partisan nonsense.

    This one, though is winnable and would be a failure if they lost.

    Everyone on this site said Reckless would lose the Rochester By Election though, and a few cast doubt on Carswell in Clacton! Par for the course
    Heywood and Middleton? Sure it was a surprise they came so close, but it was certainly "winnable."
    I edited to include that! It was winnable in hindsight I guess, but they were massive outsiders by polling day, about 14/1 I think. Labour went 1.02 on Betfair by the night

    Also they did very little campaigning, so yeah fair do's it was winnable
    Apologies! Didn't spot that!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,798
    OldKingCole said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/profbriancox/status/825334211833892864

    Euratom participation by long-term EU member Switzerland?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-fddd9rQjY

    Brexit MEANS BREXIT Sunil.

    The country voted to leave, and all that other EU nonsense

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezib57ztua8

    "Sounds like a UKIP conference speech !"

    Not half cocked leavers like Switzerland or Norway. PROPER LEAVING FOR PROPER PEOPLE !
    No, it's PROPER Brexit for PROPER People!

    Switzerland is an ASSOCIATED member of Euratom, BTW!!!
    How does that ‘association’ work and will the other members want another ‘associate'?
    I think they clean the lab coats.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    Mr. Isam, there's been a huge change since those by-elections, though.

    I've put a small sum on Dr. Foxinsox's suggestion that UKIP will get under 20%. I don't think they will, but I do think 9 is too long, in a potentially close four way contest.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    edited January 2017
    So it seems that Trump's visa ban includes green cards for citizens from the "Axis of Islam". People who may have lawfully lived in the US for decades and who happened to be on holiday this week are being barred from re-entering.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    Do we know Lab have canvassing data? They complained during the referendum of no real party presence in safe seats...
  • isamisam Posts: 42,608
    dixiedean said:

    isam said:

    dixiedean said:

    isam said:

    John_M said:

    dixiedean said:

    Brexit capital or no, if UKIP can't win in Stoke with their leader standing, they won't win any Labour seats. Their much publicised Northern breakthrough will last as long as Jurgen Klopp's wonder side. Will have to go back to pestering Tories on the East coast.

    Yep, this is their Gettysburg. Weak local candidate vs party leader. Strong Leave vote. Labour leader madder by the day. If they can't win Stoke, we can stick a fork in 'em and call it done.
    Probably true.

    In recent by elections the only ones UKIP had a hope of winning were Clacton and Rochester. No others were winnable. Sure, UKIP haters tried to make it seem like all their 2nds were failures, but that was partisan nonsense.

    This one, though is winnable and would be a failure if they lost.

    Everyone on this site said Reckless would lose the Rochester By Election though, and a few cast doubt on Carswell in Clacton! Par for the course
    Heywood and Middleton? Sure it was a surprise they came so close, but it was certainly "winnable."
    I edited to include that! It was winnable in hindsight I guess, but they were massive outsiders by polling day, about 14/1 I think. Labour went 1.02 on Betfair by the night

    Also they did very little campaigning, so yeah fair do's it was winnable
    Apologies! Didn't spot that!
    No, my fault, I edited late.

    What UKIP could do with is finding out what Gareth Snell was tweeting during the referendum campaign. I have found old tweets of him slagging UKIP off, inc calling Nuttall "Eddie Hitler", but he has deleted everything pre July.

    He is obviously a loudmouth on social media, I'd have it odds on he made disparaging comments about Leavers
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,798
    not_on_fire said:

    So it seems that Trump's visa ban includes green cards for citizens from the "Axis of Islam". People who may have lawfully lived in the US for decades and who happened to be on holiday this week are being barred from re-entering.

    If memory serves, that happened to Charlie Chaplin. Although surprisingly I have not a lot of sympathy here. If you intend to live in a country long-term and don't take out at least dual citizenship, you do lay yourself open to this sort of thing.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    edited January 2017
    viewcode said:

    not_on_fire said:

    So it seems that Trump's visa ban includes green cards for citizens from the "Axis of Islam". People who may have lawfully lived in the US for decades and who happened to be on holiday this week are being barred from re-entering.

    If memory serves, that happened to Charlie Chaplin. Although surprisingly I have not a lot of sympathy here. If you intend to live in a country long-term and don't take out at least dual citizenship, you do lay yourself open to this sort of thing.
    Seriously? Having been deemed worthy of permanent residence it's outrageous to suddennly be stranded abroad because the rules have changed.

    In any case, many countries don't allow dual citizenship, e.g. Germany, India, China.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    edited January 2017
    Mr. Fire, are Germany/China one?

    I met a chap in China who was a dual citizen (Chinese-German), which enabled him to get around the one child policy. Well, that was my understanding.

    Edited extra bit: should stress this was some time ago.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,693
    John_M said:

    OldKingCole said:

    John_M said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/profbriancox/status/825334211833892864

    Euratom participation by long-term EU member Switzerland?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-fddd9rQjY

    Brexit MEANS BREXIT Sunil.

    The country voted to leave, and all that other EU nonsense

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezib57ztua8

    "Sounds like a UKIP conference speech !"

    Not half cocked leavers like Switzerland or Norway. PROPER LEAVING FOR PROPER PEOPLE !
    No, it's PROPER Brexit for PROPER People!

    Switzerland is an ASSOCIATED member of Euratom, BTW!!!
    How does that ‘association’ work and will the other members want another ‘associate'?
    I think this is a case of DYOR.
    You never know, Mr M; surprising what can be found out by asking here!
    I apologise, that came across as a bit shirty. Please forgive my testiness!

    As a mild penance, I can testify that this whole field is littered with alphabetti-spaghetti agencies, and a web of bilateral and multilateral agreements, both regional and global. That doesn't provide you with an answer, but I can at least point you at:

    http://ec.europa.eu/research/energy/euratom/index_en.cfm?pg=coop
    Not a problem, Mr M. Thanks for the info.
    Have done a bit of looking and it very much looks as though we’ll have to leave, because we’re leaving the EU, and rejoin as associates on Brexit+1. Anything else would be utterly stupid, and would handicap all sorts of activities not least medicine.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    not_on_fire said:

    viewcode said:

    not_on_fire said:

    So it seems that Trump's visa ban includes green cards for citizens from the "Axis of Islam". People who may have lawfully lived in the US for decades and who happened to be on holiday this week are being barred from re-entering.

    If memory serves, that happened to Charlie Chaplin. Although surprisingly I have not a lot of sympathy here. If you intend to live in a country long-term and don't take out at least dual citizenship, you do lay yourself open to this sort of thing.
    Seriously? Having been deemed worthy of permanent residence it's outrageous to suddennly be stranded abroad because the rules have changed.

    In any case, many countries don't allow dual citizenship, e.g. Germany, India, China.
    I'm waiting for clarity as to whether this is HS enforcing the XO, or the airlines over-reacting on the precautionary principle.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    King Cole, assuming we leave (not guaranteed), it'll be interesting to see whether the EU reforms certain institutions/procedures to stop silly bureaucratic problems in case anyone else goes.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Isam, there's been a huge change since those by-elections, though.

    I've put a small sum on Dr. Foxinsox's suggestion that UKIP will get under 20%. I don't think they will, but I do think 9 is too long, in a potentially close four way contest.

    I think a lot of Leavers will be happy with May, and go Tory or not turn out, while Labour voters will vote Labour on other issues and for a local guy. UKIP are at risk of a squeeze.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    OldKingCole said:

    John_M said:

    OldKingCole said:

    John_M said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/profbriancox/status/825334211833892864

    Euratom participation by long-term EU member Switzerland?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-fddd9rQjY

    Brexit MEANS BREXIT Sunil.

    The country voted to leave, and all that other EU nonsense

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezib57ztua8

    "Sounds like a UKIP conference speech !"

    Not half cocked leavers like Switzerland or Norway. PROPER LEAVING FOR PROPER PEOPLE !
    No, it's PROPER Brexit for PROPER People!

    Switzerland is an ASSOCIATED member of Euratom, BTW!!!
    How does that ‘association’ work and will the other members want another ‘associate'?
    I think this is a case of DYOR.
    You never know, Mr M; surprising what can be found out by asking here!
    I apologise, that came across as a bit shirty. Please forgive my testiness!

    As a mild penance, I can testify that this whole field is littered with alphabetti-spaghetti agencies, and a web of bilateral and multilateral agreements, both regional and global. That doesn't provide you with an answer, but I can at least point you at:

    http://ec.europa.eu/research/energy/euratom/index_en.cfm?pg=coop
    Not a problem, Mr M. Thanks for the info.
    Have done a bit of looking and it very much looks as though we’ll have to leave, because we’re leaving the EU, and rejoin as associates on Brexit+1. Anything else would be utterly stupid, and would handicap all sorts of activities not least medicine.
    The EU retconned EUratom into the Lisbon treaty in 2008. Don't know why (and not particularly motivated to do the digging, in truth!).

    I do agree your point. While everyone is screechingly distracted by the great white whale of Single Market membership, I think the meat and potatoes of our talks are going to be on which European programs we retain membership of, under what terms, and at what cost.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    AlastairMeeks said:

    A Labour rebel writes:

    https://twitter.com/heidi_mp/status/825296626017263616

    She's MP for Lewisham East. Lewisham voted 70:30 to Remain, and the Lib Dems were her main challengers in 2010. Thus, her decision is hardly a surprise.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    Dr. Foxinsox, I largely agree, although low turnout could be an issue.

    As I said, I think it's odds against, but it seems odd to me UKIP are shorter (6 against 9) to get 41-50% of the vote than under 20% in what could be a tight four-way result.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,043
    Morris_Dancer said:

    King Cole, assuming we leave (not guaranteed), it'll be interesting to see whether the EU reforms certain institutions/procedures to stop silly bureaucratic problems in case anyone else goes.

    Why do you conclude they're 'silly bureaucratic problems' ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,891
    Mr. Jessop, by that, I'm referring to the apparent necessity of us leaving this Euratom thingummyjig only to rejoin it immediately as an associate.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,043
    The chaos starts:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-38783512
This discussion has been closed.

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