politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There’s an argument for saying that REMAINers feel more strong

First. TSE is a cheat.

tlg86 said:

First. TSE is a cheat.

That's just an alternative fact.

I made this point a long time before we left, that those regarding the EU as highly salient in IPSOS MORI issues index would "flip" should we ever leave (Or it looks inevitable).

Its always the same, people never regard anything as salient if they're broadly happy with it, the ungrateful hoi polloi.

Pulpstar said:

I made this point a long time before we left, that those regarding the EU as highly salient in IPSOS MORI issues index would "flip" should we ever leave (Or it looks inevitable).

Its always the same, people never regard anything as salient if they're broadly happy with it, the ungrateful hoi polloi.

Feckin' plebs.

SeanT said:

fpt for NPXMP

Um, when I did my stint in Wormwood Scrubs prison in the late 1980s, "23 hour lock up" was the norm - we spent 23 hours of every day locked in our cells. With a bucket (they were still slopping out back then)

Did we riot? Did we hell. We put our heads down and did our bird. I'm quite frankly ashamed of the calibre of modern British criminals. They don't know their born.

"Their born" what? Supremacy?

There was a discussion on here about Trident...
Do we need a different system that is more independent of the US?

The level of military knowledge on here seems to a complete non-expert like me to be very high so interested to hear views.

(Assuming you accept the premise that Trump is not a friend of the UK)

rkrkrk said:

There was a discussion on here about Trident...
Do we need a different system that is more independent of the US?

The level of military knowledge on here seems to a complete non-expert like me to be very high so interested to hear views.

(Assuming you accept the premise that Trump is not a friend of the UK)

I've always wanted a plane based nuclear deterrent.

rkrkrk said:

There was a discussion on here about Trident...
Do we need a different system that is more independent of the US?

The level of military knowledge on here seems to a complete non-expert like me to be very high so interested to hear views.

(Assuming you accept the premise that Trump is not a friend of the UK)

The Galileo satellite navigation system is certainly looking like a good idea now.

rkrkrk said:

Do we need a different system that is more independent of the US?

If we want to spend a lot more money on a worse system then the answer is yes. We have a very good deal with the US piggy-backing on their SLBM development, I see no reason why we would want to change it.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting.

I'm more upset that Dave is no longer PM, and George is languishing on the backbenches than losing the referendum.

Maybe, but after showing early promise, Dave was ultimately a disappointing PM who needlessly chucked it all away, as indeed was Osborne a disappointing Chancellor, following a number of embarrassing and credibility destroying U-turns and ultimately not succeeding in getting to grips with the the promised key numbers for the economy.

Remember Trump on Romney? It's not hard to imagine him expressing similar sentiments about Theresa May in future, perhaps to another world leader.

I could have said, "Mitt drop to your knees," he would have dropped to his knees. He was begging me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_XCy-vYMJs

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

fpt for NPXMP

Um, when I did my stint in Wormwood Scrubs prison in the late 1980s, "23 hour lock up" was the norm - we spent 23 hours of every day locked in our cells. With a bucket (they were still slopping out back then)

Did we riot? Did we hell. We put our heads down and did our bird. I'm quite frankly ashamed of the calibre of modern British criminals. They don't know their born.

I sense you are in a good place currently. Time for a novel.

I'm a quarter of the way into the writing of my next Tremayne thriller. In Bangkok.

By 10am your time it's 5pm my time and I've done my work for the day, had a swim, caught some sun, and eaten a nice seafood lunch, so yes I am generally in a very benign mood, around about now.

I dunno who said "I hate writing, I love having written" but there's a lot of truth in it. Though the actual writing itself can be a tremendous buzz if it's going REALLY well. Usually not the case.

There is something very satisfying in having done your words for the day; even in my relatively obscure, unremarkable line of work. Then it all starts to build up once more, when you realise you have to do it all over again in the morning.

SeanT said:

Does Trump have a grudge against Germany?

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/824564320176594945

He's seen "Saving Private Ryan" and blames Angela Merkel for the death of Tom Hanks.

How much does the USA give to the IMF at the moment, just out of interest ?

SeanT said:

david_herdson said:

rkrkrk said:

There was a discussion on here about Trident...
Do we need a different system that is more independent of the US?

The level of military knowledge on here seems to a complete non-expert like me to be very high so interested to hear views.

(Assuming you accept the premise that Trump is not a friend of the UK)

Whether or not Trump is a friend of the UK, it should be clear from Bush's unilateralism, Obama's Angloscepticism and Trump's mavereickness that the US cannot be relied upon to perceive itself to share Britain's strategic interests in the way that it did when the original Polaris deal was done and then the subsequent Trident ones. So yes, I think we probably do need either an entirely independent one or one that is - ironically given other events - shared with the French.

Polaris was done AFTER Suez. So your point is incoherent.

It was done after the lesson that Britain took from Suez was never to get so far from US policy again. With the dismantling of empire and until the end of the Cold War, that was possible. Not so much now.

Love the synthetic rage of the Remainer MPs about the timetable for the Article 50 bill. What is there to discuss?

We are leaving.

@davieclegg: David Mundell has confirmed that the "Great Repeal Bill" will trigger a legislative consent motion at Holyrood. Major headache for UK Gov.

david_herdson said:

It was done after the lesson that Britain took from Suez was never to get so far from US policy again. With the dismantling of empire and until the end of the Cold War, that was possible. Not so much now.

There's an added irony in the recent outpouring of appreciation for De Gaulle among some leavers who approvingly quote his remarks after the original French veto of our EEC membership.

MikeSmithson said:

david_herdson said:

Lib Dems are 50/1 for Stoke. Mike has form with tipping 50/1 bets and there might actually be a bit of value there - we live in such a state of flux that what ought to be impossible isn't. But for all that, I don't expect the Lib Dems to come close.

Oh, and first, because I'm worth it.

I've £20 on at 50/1. I don't expect to win but can envisage the situation where they do so. LAB choosing a strong LEAVER is a gift that the highly accomplished LD team will exploit. It blocks out any notion of a progressive alliance.

A strong Leaver who voted Remain? What is this new world we live in?

"Accepting the result" =Strong Leaver???

PM = Leaver
LotO = Leaver
FM = Leaver
Lib Dem leader = Leaver
Green Party Leaders= Leavers

Vive la Revolution!

isam said:

MikeSmithson said:

david_herdson said:

Lib Dems are 50/1 for Stoke. Mike has form with tipping 50/1 bets and there might actually be a bit of value there - we live in such a state of flux that what ought to be impossible isn't. But for all that, I don't expect the Lib Dems to come close.

Oh, and first, because I'm worth it.

I've £20 on at 50/1. I don't expect to win but can envisage the situation where they do so. LAB choosing a strong LEAVER is a gift that the highly accomplished LD team will exploit. It blocks out any notion of a progressive alliance.

A strong Leaver who voted Remain? What is this new world we live in?

"Accepting the result" =Strong Leaver???

PM = Leaver
LotO = Leaver
FM = Leaver
Lib Dem leader = Leaver
Green Party Leaders= Leavers

Vive la Revolution!

I’ve got to admit, as a committed Remainer, that Macbeth had a point ‘if it were done, twere best it were done quickly!’

However, I still hope that when the public see what a mess we’re going to get ourselves into, a second referendum will keep us IN.

Edit. FFS strikes again!

rkrkrk said:

david_herdson said:

rkrkrk said:

There was a discussion on here about Trident...
Do we need a different system that is more independent of the US?

The level of military knowledge on here seems to a complete non-expert like me to be very high so interested to hear views.

(Assuming you accept the premise that Trump is not a friend of the UK)

Whether or not Trump is a friend of the UK, it should be clear from Bush's unilateralism, Obama's Angloscepticism and Trump's mavereickness that the US cannot be relied upon to perceive itself to share Britain's strategic interests in the way that it did when the original Polaris deal was done and then the subsequent Trident ones. So yes, I think we probably do need either an entirely independent one or one that is - ironically given other events - shared with the French.

Interesting.
French because we are so geographically close?

France would make sense, we're two similiar sized (Pop wise) nations with broadly similiar sized economies - it would also be a good move in soft diplomatic terms ingratiating ourselves in a vital aspect with one of the big two in a post-Brexit EU.

Didn't the IMF want debt forgiveness for Greece, and not get it. The EU runs Greece and EU Germany has money. It is as if the UK government were asking IMF support for Corby. I can't see any reason for the IMF to involve itself. It is being asked to send money while the EU refuses to reform its ways.

rkrkrk said:

There was a discussion on here about Trident...
Do we need a different system that is more independent of the US?

The level of military knowledge on here seems to a complete non-expert like me to be very high so interested to hear views.

(Assuming you accept the premise that Trump is not a friend of the UK)

Cost of systems, look up Blue Streak (wrong propellant - liquid fuels), need for silos (where could they go?). Blue Steel airborne, needed Vulcan to carry it, required airbases & dispersal sites. Both ate up comparatively large sums in the 1950s.

1960 Britain decides to join US with Skybolt project, air launched by V Bombers. Kennedy cancels it. Big row over nature of deterrent, and dependence on US 1962.

Which is easier to hide, a submerged vessel with 16 missiles, or 8 bombers with 2?

Let's hope some of Tessy's Spads have read The Art Of The Deal.

https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/824520092092432384

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

Does Trump have a grudge against Germany?

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/824564320176594945

He wants to destroy the EU. If he can get at Germany he is more likely to achieve this. It would, of course, be catastrophic for the UK economy were that to happen.

No, I don't think it's anything as complex or grand as that. I doubt he has a real opinion on the EU either way, apart from thinking it doesn't work very well, and the Merkel migrant thing was massively stupid (and he's right on both counts).

Remember he's a rampant, frothing narcissist. I reckon he's just insulted that the Germans have been so cool to him, even after the inauguration. Whereas the Brits have changed their tune.

That said, President Trump can turn personal grudges into geopolitical strategies, and he does, so the Germans can possibly expect hostile actions.

The Germans are certainly gearing up for American aggression, but the Single Market shields them somewhat. And by pulling out of Asia, Trump leaves the way open for the EU. This is his problem with the EU - as a trading bloc it has the heft to cause problems to his America First policies. Far, far better for him to have Europe as a collection of individual countries that the US can dictate to. That's why he is such a fan of Brexit, of course: isolated, the UK will have to take whatever trade deal the US tells us to, or we will get nothing at all.

Theuniondivvie said:

Let's hope some of Tessy's Spads have read The Art Of The Deal.

They've probably listened to too many anti-Trump Republicans and convinced themselves that Trump is the one who desperately needs a deal with us...

david_herdson said:

MikeSmithson said:

david_herdson said:

Lib Dems are 50/1 for Stoke. Mike has form with tipping 50/1 bets and there might actually be a bit of value there - we live in such a state of flux that what ought to be impossible isn't. But for all that, I don't expect the Lib Dems to come close.

Oh, and first, because I'm worth it.

I've £20 on at 50/1. I don't expect to win but can envisage the situation where they do so. LAB choosing a strong LEAVER is a gift that the highly accomplished LD team will exploit. It blocks out any notion of a progressive alliance.

I thought that the Lab choice voted remain and that the notorious tweet was more poking fun at the vacuous Brexit variants?

But I agree with the basic premise that while the Lib Dems are unlikely to win, it is possible to see a route. It'll be hard though: they need to persuade Labour Remainers to switch despite the risk that that move would make of letting UKIP in.

It is quite incredible that EU supporters who voted Remain at the referendum are now regarded as "Strong Leavers" because they accept the result.

isam said:

david_herdson said:

MikeSmithson said:

david_herdson said:

Lib Dems are 50/1 for Stoke. Mike has form with tipping 50/1 bets and there might actually be a bit of value there - we live in such a state of flux that what ought to be impossible isn't. But for all that, I don't expect the Lib Dems to come close.

Oh, and first, because I'm worth it.

I've £20 on at 50/1. I don't expect to win but can envisage the situation where they do so. LAB choosing a strong LEAVER is a gift that the highly accomplished LD team will exploit. It blocks out any notion of a progressive alliance.

I thought that the Lab choice voted remain and that the notorious tweet was more poking fun at the vacuous Brexit variants?

But I agree with the basic premise that while the Lib Dems are unlikely to win, it is possible to see a route. It'll be hard though: they need to persuade Labour Remainers to switch despite the risk that that move would make of letting UKIP in.

It is quite incredible that EU supporters who voted Remain at the referendum are now regarded as "Strong Leavers" because they accept the result.

Agreed, 'reluctant leavers' would be nearer the mark. I would imagine that most of those would want a 'soft' Brexit.

Pulpstar said:

rkrkrk said:

david_herdson said:

rkrkrk said:

There was a discussion on here about Trident...
Do we need a different system that is more independent of the US?

The level of military knowledge on here seems to a complete non-expert like me to be very high so interested to hear views.

(Assuming you accept the premise that Trump is not a friend of the UK)

Whether or not Trump is a friend of the UK, it should be clear from Bush's unilateralism, Obama's Angloscepticism and Trump's mavereickness that the US cannot be relied upon to perceive itself to share Britain's strategic interests in the way that it did when the original Polaris deal was done and then the subsequent Trident ones. So yes, I think we probably do need either an entirely independent one or one that is - ironically given other events - shared with the French.

Interesting.
French because we are so geographically close?

France would make sense, we're two similiar sized (Pop wise) nations with broadly similiar sized economies - it would also be a good move in soft diplomatic terms ingratiating ourselves in a vital aspect with one of the big two in a post-Brexit EU.

There aren't really any other choices, given that Russia, China and Israel are probably the only others with sufficiently reliable technology for SLBMs.
We probably ought to have jointly developed carriers with them, too, as then we'd have had the Rafale as an insurance against the navalised F35 proving a bust.

OldKingCole said:

SeanT said:

OldKingCole said:

mwadams said:

SeanT said:

Does Trump have a grudge against Germany?

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/824564320176594945

He's seen "Saving Private Ryan" and blames Angela Merkel for the death of Tom Hanks.

Wasn’t his grandfather (or possiblly gt grandfather) banned from one of the Germany states for refusing to do miltary service?

Edit: Thought so;found a reference https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/21/trump-grandfather-friedrich-banished-germany-historian-royal-decree

Hah. That's interesting. He's clearly a man who remembers slights and likes revenge, maybe this goes back a few generations. Let's hope the Scots were nice to his granny, or whoever it was.

Arte we about to revisit The Clearances?

To make way for massive Trump golf courses?

dr_spyn said:

Bill on Article 50.

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/824592972574584833

Well that is definitely the first time I have read a government Bill from start to finish!

dr_spyn said:

Bill on Article 50.

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/824592972574584833

Surely the short title should be 'Brexit Act'?

dr_spyn said:

Bill on Article 50.

The deadline has been removed from the previous draft.

https://twitter.com/gareth_snell/status/824229458940989442

logical_song said:

isam said:

david_herdson said:

MikeSmithson said:

david_herdson said:

Lib Dems are 50/1 for Stoke. Mike has form with tipping 50/1 bets and there might actually be a bit of value there - we live in such a state of flux that what ought to be impossible isn't. But for all that, I don't expect the Lib Dems to come close.

Oh, and first, because I'm worth it.

I've £20 on at 50/1. I don't expect to win but can envisage the situation where they do so. LAB choosing a strong LEAVER is a gift that the highly accomplished LD team will exploit. It blocks out any notion of a progressive alliance.

I thought that the Lab choice voted remain and that the notorious tweet was more poking fun at the vacuous Brexit variants?

But I agree with the basic premise that while the Lib Dems are unlikely to win, it is possible to see a route. It'll be hard though: they need to persuade Labour Remainers to switch despite the risk that that move would make of letting UKIP in.

It is quite incredible that EU supporters who voted Remain at the referendum are now regarded as "Strong Leavers" because they accept the result.

Agreed, 'reluctant leavers' would be nearer the mark. I would imagine that most of those would want a 'soft' Brexit.

Not me - lets leave completely asap

SandyRentool said:

dr_spyn said:

Bill on Article 50.

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/824592972574584833

Well that is definitely the first time I have read a government Bill from start to finish!

I thought it would be to invoke article 50... But it's actually to give the PM the power to do so.
Maybe that doesn't matter.

It's also written in such a way that if it turns out a50 is reversible... It doesn't say PM has the power to reverse it?

rkrkrk said:

SandyRentool said:

dr_spyn said:

Bill on Article 50.

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/824592972574584833

Well that is definitely the first time I have read a government Bill from start to finish!

I thought it would be to invoke article 50... But it's actually to give the PM the power to do so.
Maybe that doesn't matter.

It's also written in such a way that if it turns out a50 is reversible... It doesn't say PM has the power to reverse it?

Clearly I read it, but didn't read into it...

Richard_Tyndall said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

Does Trump have a grudge against Germany?

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/824564320176594945

He wants to destroy the EU. If he can get at Germany he is more likely to achieve this. It would, of course, be catastrophic for the UK economy were that to happen.

No, I don't think it's anything as complex or grand as that. I doubt he has a real opinion on the EU either way, apart from thinking it doesn't work very well, and the Merkel migrant thing was massively stupid (and he's right on both counts).

Remember he's a rampant, frothing narcissist. I reckon he's just insulted that the Germans have been so cool to him, even after the inauguration. Whereas the Brits have changed their tune.

That said, President Trump can turn personal grudges into geopolitical strategies, and he does, so the Germans can possibly expect hostile actions.

The Germans are certainly gearing up for American aggression, but the Single Market shields them somewhat. And by pulling out of Asia, Trump leaves the way open for the EU. This is his problem with the EU - as a trading bloc it has the heft to cause problems to his America First policies. Far, far better for him to have Europe as a collection of individual countries that the US can dictate to. That's why he is such a fan of Brexit, of course: isolated, the UK will have to take whatever trade deal the US tells us to, or we will get nothing at all.

The EU as a trading bloc is a dead dog. It is a very mature market where the chances of radically increasing trade are extremely limited. Asia is the big emerging market and Africa will follow suit eventually. the EU will be left far behind as a protectionist backwater.

Almost all countries and trading blocs are protectionist - and will continue to be so. The Single Market is where we send over 40% of our exports. That may change over time, but it will not do so rapidly. And being a part of it means that all times - whatever happens elsewhere - we have full access to over 500 million potential customers. That is a good place from which to start and we will get nothing like it from any other trading arrangement we may negotiate. I accept that there are good reasons to leave the EU, but improving our trading potential is not one of them.

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The EU as a trading bloc is a dead dog. It is a very mature market where the chances of radically increasing trade are extremely limited. Asia is the big emerging market and Africa will follow suit eventually. the EU will be left far behind as a protectionist backwater.

Do you disagree with Mr Smithson Jr's assessment of the EU's level of protectionism?

I am saying it will become more protectionist as it becomes less and less relevant. The EU market is past its sell by date as far as significant growth is concerned. It is sclerotic and unable to adapt and the future lies with the rest of the world. I think Trump has made a mistake (amongst many others) antagonising the emerging Pacific markets so quickly.

rottenborough said:

dr_spyn said:

Bill on Article 50.

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/824592972574584833

Surely the short title should be 'Brexit Act'?

"Brexit is Brexit!"

rottenborough said:

SeanT said:

isam said:

david_herdson said:

MikeSmithson said:

david_herdson said:

Lib Dems are 50/1 for Stoke. Mike has form with tipping 50/1 bets and there might actually be a bit of value there - we live in such a state of flux that what ought to be impossible isn't. But for all that, I don't expect the Lib Dems to come close.

Oh, and first, because I'm worth it.

I've £20 on at 50/1. I don't expect to win but can envisage the situation where they do so. LAB choosing a strong LEAVER is a gift that the highly accomplished LD team will exploit. It blocks out any notion of a progressive alliance.

I thought that the Lab choice voted remain and that the notorious tweet was more poking fun at the vacuous Brexit variants?

But I agree with the basic premise that while the Lib Dems are unlikely to win, it is possible to see a route. It'll be hard though: they need to persuade Labour Remainers to switch despite the risk that that move would make of letting UKIP in.

It is quite incredible that EU supporters who voted Remain at the referendum are now regarded as "Strong Leavers" because they accept the result.

I think Mike S, Our Genial Host, has completely misinterpreted the Labour candidate's position on Brexit.

John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul 2m2 minutes ago

Labour cand for Stoke @gareth_snell: 9th by-election cand since Corbyn supporters overran party. They haven't yet selected one of their own.

If Corbynistas want to have Corbynista Parliamentary candidates they need to turn off their computers and start turning up to CLP meetings. Until they do, the moderates will prevail in most constituencies.

edmundintokyo said:

david_herdson said:

Trump does need a deal with *someone*, in order to prove that he is indeed the great dealmaker. There is leverage there (although also considerable dangers).

He has a lot of options for bilateral deals, not least since there are a bunch of countries that were all ready to sign the TPP. In Japan the government has already paid most of the political price to get it through, and they're not particularly keen on letting China take over the global hegemony role that America just gave up.

China's population is five times that of the US. They can no more prevent it than Britain could prevent the US ultimately rising to global dominance (intervention in the Civil War aside).

SandyRentool said:

dr_spyn said:

Bill on Article 50.

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/824592972574584833

Well that is definitely the first time I have read a government Bill from start to finish!

Yep, the two line Bill exactly as it needs to be.

Any amendment about negotiating positions is out of scope of the Bill, it's purely that we should respect the view of the People and start the process of leaving the EU.

The EU as a trading bloc is a dead dog is a far too sweeping statement. as a trading bloc it is growing in terms of members and size - think of the achievements of the last 12 years - massive population growth (accession of Poland, Romania for example) and some cases of huge growth (Slovakia), to top it all a club that people want to join (Turkey). Sweeping generalisations about Asia (which part - Japan, India or Indonesia?) are you referring to - none of which are at all interested in free trade as we know it. To typify the EU as a dead dog is a gross simplification - it has its problems but a lack of expansion is not one of them

david_herdson said:

edmundintokyo said:

david_herdson said:

Trump does need a deal with *someone*, in order to prove that he is indeed the great dealmaker. There is leverage there (although also considerable dangers).

He has a lot of options for bilateral deals, not least since there are a bunch of countries that were all ready to sign the TPP. In Japan the government has already paid most of the political price to get it through, and they're not particularly keen on letting China take over the global hegemony role that America just gave up.

China's population is five times that of the US. They can no more prevent it than Britain could prevent the US ultimately rising to global dominance (intervention in the Civil War aside).

Sure sure, but I mean specifically right now over trade. Basically the plan is to do
sed 's/USA/PRC/g' TPP.txt > RCEP.txt

Japan doesn't like this, but if the US won't work with them they may have to go along with it. (The situation's a lot like the UK with the EU, except if Germany was twice the size of everybody else.)

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The EU as a trading bloc is a dead dog. It is a very mature market where the chances of radically increasing trade are extremely limited. Asia is the big emerging market and Africa will follow suit eventually. the EU will be left far behind as a protectionist backwater.

Do you disagree with Mr Smithson Jr's assessment of the EU's level of protectionism?

I am saying it will become more protectionist as it becomes less and less relevant. The EU market is past its sell by date as far as significant growth is concerned. It is sclerotic and unable to adapt and the future lies with the rest of the world. I think Trump has made a mistake (amongst many others) antagonising the emerging Pacific markets so quickly.

He's just ensured that China writes the rules in Asia from here on in. He may also end up pushing China and the EU closer together.

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The EU as a trading bloc is a dead dog. It is a very mature market where the chances of radically increasing trade are extremely limited. Asia is the big emerging market and Africa will follow suit eventually. the EU will be left far behind as a protectionist backwater.

Do you disagree with Mr Smithson Jr's assessment of the EU's level of protectionism?

I am saying it will become more protectionist as it becomes less and less relevant. The EU market is past its sell by date as far as significant growth is concerned. It is sclerotic and unable to adapt and the future lies with the rest of the world. I think Trump has made a mistake (amongst many others) antagonising the emerging Pacific markets so quickly.

He's just ensured that China writes the rules in Asia from here on in. He may also end up pushing China and the EU closer together.

EUSSR!

SouthamObserver said:

Almost all countries and trading blocs are protectionist - and will continue to be so. The Single Market is where we send over 40% of our exports. That may change over time, but it will not do so rapidly. And being a part of it means that all times - whatever happens elsewhere - we have full access to over 500 million potential customers. That is a good place from which to start and we will get nothing like it from any other trading arrangement we may negotiate. I accept that there are good reasons to leave the EU, but improving our trading potential is not one of them.

Yet another economic illiterate who thinks that 7% of the world's population should be more important for our future trade prospects than the other 93%. Membership of the EU actively hinders trade with the rest of the world. Being outside the Single Market will not significantly change the amount of trade we do with them but will allow us to make our own trade deals with the rest of the world.

In 20 years the EU's share of global trade has dropped from 30% to 24% and it will continue to shrink.

rkrkrk said:

There was a discussion on here about Trident...
Do we need a different system that is more independent of the US?

The level of military knowledge on here seems to a complete non-expert like me to be very high so interested to hear views.

(Assuming you accept the premise that Trump is not a friend of the UK)

I did response on the previous thread in case you missed it!