Labour MP Daniel Zeichner says for others to decide whether he should lose his job for defying Jeremy Corbyn and voting against #Article50
Telling Corbyn to sack him bascially.
The most amusing thing has been Corbynistats on Twitter in disbelief
Having reported that some MPs would resign if whipped, and that Corbyn was whipping, accused them of fake news...
@SimonAttwood: @BethRigby Anyone can write stuff and say it's a transcript. Particularly a corporation pro Brexit and anti Corbyn. Do you have it on tape?
@BethRigby: Yes this transcript is from a broadcast clip that has been played on @skynews. We don't make up transcripts. Obviously. twitter.com/simonattwood/s…
@EllieJPrice: Lab MP tells me: Lab whips ringing Lab MPs telling them to vote for art50 while also telling them they themselves intend to vote against it.
This feels a bit Gotterdammerung. I wonder if Corbyn will survive until April.
Tories should be SERIOUSLY planning for an April GE. TMay is mad if she doesn't.
It can easily be sold as a Brexit election, to clear the air. The Tories would romp home with a 100 seat majority, ready to steer the country into the sunlit future of freedom.
Let it be done.
No need to do that when the Brexit bill will sail through the commons with a whopping majority.
3. Economically it's over: growth in 4Q16 was 0.6%, best in the G7. This momentum will carry forward. There's not gonna be some huge recession changing people's minds.
Driven entirely by services, not manufacturing. And we ARE STILL IN ALL OF THE BODIES that Brexiteers claim were holding us back.
3. Economically it's over: growth in 4Q16 was 0.6%, best in the G7. This momentum will carry forward. There's not gonna be some huge recession changing people's minds.
Driven entirely by services, not manufacturing. And we ARE STILL IN ALL OF THE BODIES that Brexiteers claim were holding us back.
Just a brief comment on passports that I forgot to drop on the last thread. Being an EU member does *not* mean we have to have a burgundy coloured passport, only that we have the words "European Union" (or equivalent) at the top of the front cover. It is (and would have been) perfectly possible for us to keep the dark blue colour scheme even when we went to the new design in the 1990s. Croatia, an EU country, has a dark blue passport for example. And Sweden will soon offer their citizens the choice of passport colour.
While there is a 'recommendation' that EU countries have shades of burgundy, so as to make the lives of passport control checks at busy interchanges easier (and to make sorting of passengers into lines simple by just glancing at passport covers), passport colour has never been a treaty obligation.
3. Economically it's over: growth in 4Q16 was 0.6%, best in the G7. This momentum will carry forward. There's not gonna be some huge recession changing people's minds.
Driven entirely by services, not manufacturing. And we ARE STILL IN ALL OF THE BODIES that Brexiteers claim were holding us back.
Yes; and if it's this good now despite the EU it's going to get so much better when we have escaped. Everything is going to be fantastic! Really can't wait. Let's get on with it.
@jessicaelgot: I understand there are at least two shadow cabinet members who are seriously considering defying Labour's three line whip on Article 50 bill
I didn't realise that Corbyn had managed to recruit so many people to his shadow cabinet.
Afternoon all. I can only imagine that Corbyn is self-immolating a la 1963. I seriously doubt he'll actually enforce the three line whip as it's literally the worst of all possible worlds for Labour.
Ah, me, what am I saying, he'll probably do it for precisely that reason. Perhaps, in some twisted way, he's trying to shake the PLP loose.
Have Sinn Fein said anything more about whether they'll take their seats to vote against A50?
Do you now accept Brexit is very likely to happen?
I think this might make a good poll for PB-ers: the chances of Brexit being stopped
To my mind, the last serious chance of thwarting Brexit has now gone.
1. Legally it's over, the best hope was the Supreme Court giving Sturgeon a veto. didn't happen. 2. Politically it's over, Remoaners needed Labour to unite behind stalling Brexit, but they didn't. A50 will be triggered 3. Economically it's over: growth in 4Q16 was 0.6%, best in the G7. This momentum will carry forward. There's not gonna be some huge recession changing people's minds. And the polls show the voters are becoming MORE Brexity, anyway. Plus Confirmation Bias.
And with that, it's done. The last forlorn hope for Remainers is a black swan. A war. Comet strike. Spanish flu. Trump nuking us. I dunno. I think it's over. And we're out.
Just a brief comment on passports that I forgot to drop on the last thread. Being an EU member does *not* mean we have to have a burgundy coloured passport, only that we have the words "European Union" (or equivalent) at the top of the front cover. It is (and would have been) perfectly possible for us to keep the dark blue colour scheme even when we went to the new design in the 1990s. Croatia, an EU country, has a dark blue passport for example. And Sweden will soon offer their citizens the choice of passport colour.
While there is a 'recommendation' that EU countries have shades of burgundy, so as to make the lives of passport control checks at busy interchanges easier (and to make sorting of passengers into lines simple by just glancing at passport covers), passport colour has never been a treaty obligation.
Have Sinn Fein said anything more about whether they'll take their seats to vote against A50?
Do you now accept Brexit is very likely to happen?
I think this might make a good poll for PB-ers: the chances of Brexit being stopped
To my mind, the last serious chance of thwarting Brexit has now gone.
1. Legally it's over, the best hope was the Supreme Court giving Sturgeon a veto. didn't happen. 2. Politically it's over, Remoaners needed Labour to unite behind stalling Brexit, but they didn't. A50 will be triggered 3. Economically it's over: growth in 4Q16 was 0.6%, best in the G7. This momentum will carry forward. There's not gonna be some huge recession changing people's minds. And the polls show the voters are becoming MORE Brexity, anyway. Plus Confirmation Bias.
And with that, it's done. The last forlorn hope for Remainers is a black swan. A war. Comet strike. Spanish flu. Trump nuking us. I dunno. I think it's over. And we're out.
It's a rage against the dying of the light.
Entirely understandably, considering the moral and intellectual darkness that is engulfing us.
Maybe, maybe not. The salient point is that we aren't having a big recession, and I doubt we will before 2018, 2019. And by then Brexit is done. So your last chance of stopping it is gone.
Unless you can foresee some crazy new Remoaner wunderwaffe, a brilliant europhile V2 launched from PB's own Peenemunde.
I agree we're leaving. That has never been in dispute.
But there will be pain to come, screaming and wailing from the very people who cheered the result, there may be winners, and there will be many, many losers.
A large chunk of the PLP voted against the Whip in Autumn 1971 in support of the Heath Governmemt's application to join the EEC. The group included the Deputy Leader -Roy Jenkins, and other prominent figures such as Shirley Williams, John Smith, Roy Hattersley, David Owen,William Rodgers and Harold Lever. None of them were forced to resign from their Shadow positions.
A large chunk of the PLP voted against the Whip in Autumn 1971 in support of the Heath Governmemt's application to join the EEC. The group included the Deputy Leader -Roy Jenkins, and other prominent figures such as Shirley Williams, John Smith, Roy Hattersley, David Owen,William Rodgers and Harold Lever. None of them were forced to resign from their Shadow positions.
There are plenty of pics of the incident and him but I'm trying to track down a photo of her. If she is actually reasonably shaggable then fair play for asking. Maybe she's a moose and he's being sarcastic? You can't judge this story without a photo of her. Ideally topless - for research purposes, obviously.
Have Sinn Fein said anything more about whether they'll take their seats to vote against A50?
Do you now accept Brexit is very likely to happen?
I think this might make a good poll for PB-ers: the chances of Brexit being stopped
To my mind, the last serious chance of thwarting Brexit has now gone.
1. Legally it's over, the best hope was the Supreme Court giving Sturgeon a veto. didn't happen. 2. Politically it's over, Remoaners needed Labour to unite behind stalling Brexit, but they didn't. A50 will be triggered 3. Economically it's over: growth in 4Q16 was 0.6%, best in the G7. This momentum will carry forward. There's not gonna be some huge recession changing people's minds. And the polls show the voters are becoming MORE Brexity, anyway. Plus Confirmation Bias.
And with that, it's done. The last forlorn hope for Remainers is a black swan. A war. Comet strike. Spanish flu. Trump nuking us. I dunno. I think it's over. And we're out.
I don't think pre A50 was ever the serious chance to stop Brexit. If anything it's surprising that public opinion didn't swing behind the result more in the immediate aftermath.
The serious chance to stop it comes after A50 has been invoked and it is seen to be failing. There are two main ways this can happen which will possibly feed into each other - a constitutional mess over Scotland, or the absence of a deal or any meaningful deals with other countries and 'global Brexit' becoming a bad joke.
May's enthusiasm to get into bed with Trump is an early sign that she is walking a political tightrope. I still think her poll ratings will crash and burn faster than John Major's after it starts to go south.
Have Sinn Fein said anything more about whether they'll take their seats to vote against A50?
Do you now accept Brexit is very likely to happen?
I think this might make a good poll for PB-ers: the chances of Brexit being stopped
To my mind, the last serious chance of thwarting Brexit has now gone.
1. Legally it's over, the best hope was the Supreme Court giving Sturgeon a veto. didn't happen. 2. Politically it's over, Remoaners needed Labour to unite behind stalling Brexit, but they didn't. A50 will be triggered 3. Economically it's over: growth in 4Q16 was 0.6%, best in the G7. This momentum will carry forward. There's not gonna be some huge recession changing people's minds. And the polls show the voters are becoming MORE Brexity, anyway. Plus Confirmation Bias.
And with that, it's done. The last forlorn hope for Remainers is a black swan. A war. Comet strike. Spanish flu. Trump nuking us. I dunno. I think it's over. And we're out.
I don't think it's quite a done deal yet, though we're talking about low probability events.
1. Maugham's court case in Ireland results in an ECJ ruling that A50 is revocable (ideally, unilaterally revocable).
2. Something appallingly bad happens to the UK economy (or perhaps just one section of it - e.g. Nissan announces immediate relocation of all manufacturing to Slovenia or some such, or the City decides, en masse, that Frankfurt isn't just a howling cultural desert after all and decamps).
2a. An actual shooting war breaks out over the Baltics or Ukraine.
3. The Tories get frit, panic and withdraw A50.
As I say, unlikely. But it's a whacky old world out there.
A large chunk of the PLP voted against the Whip in Autumn 1971 in support of the Heath Governmemt's application to join the EEC. The group included the Deputy Leader -Roy Jenkins, and other prominent figures such as Shirley Williams, John Smith, Roy Hattersley, David Owen,William Rodgers and Harold Lever. None of them were forced to resign from their Shadow positions.
Yes, I thought this wasn't a three line whip?
Edit: Ah, it is a three line whip after all.
The 1971 vote was a three line Whip on the Labour side. 69 Labour MPs rebelled and a further 20 abstained!
Reflecting, if Councillor Foxhunting-Wotsit had just kept quiet he may have had a case for a report for harrassment just from the identifiable filming and the verbals under current (silly) laws, depending what she did with the film.
Hacksaw Ridge is a stunningly good war film - or film, period. If La La Land weren't being lauded like Ben Hur, it might stand a chance. And I far preferred Andrew Garfield's performance in it to that of the much-touted Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea.
Amy Adams getting overlooked for Best Actress in Arrival was a shock. I suppose somebody had to lose out so Meryl could get her 20th....
Very gratified though to see Hidden Figures getting a Best Picture Nom. Entirely deserved. The film I most ENJOYED out of the whole awards crop."
MM
I'm just catching up. I saw Manchester by the Sea which I thought was pretty good though too depressing to win anything but I did think Casey Affleck was good. I also saw 'Jackie' which I liked a lot and if NP doesn't win best actress I'd be very surprised. A compulsive performance as was the film. Very well directed too for such a small tale and not like a biopic at all which I generally don't like. Next to see is Lalaland this afternoon then Hidden Figures which I'm looking forward to and Hacksaw Ridge less so.
Agree on "Jackie" - her performance WAS the film. Must be a strong favourite unless the Academy go completely bonkers over La La Land. Which has to be a possibility, it being set in LA and all...
Hacksaw RIdge has a very strong potential appeal to the liberal left - a true story of a conscientious objector, the hell he has to go through in training and his extraordinary war - being capped off by receiving the highest gallantry medal in the US. The sort of story that might well appeal to those who really dislike Trump - and I'm thinking that is maybe 85% of Academy voters. (Set against that, I guess many would not want to see Mel Gibson to prosper as director - so the value there is on Andrew Garfield who is well gong-worthy). BTW make sure you stay to the very end of Hacksaw Ridge (which is a bit of an endurance, because arguably its only fault is it feels a good 15 minutes too long).
I read up on Hacksaw Ridge after I saw the film - contrary to most Hollywood fare they actually toned down rather than exaggerated the heroics....which makes the true life story even more remarkable.
One of the the quirks of British military history that I like is that one of our double VC winners achieved both without killing anyone.
Maybe, maybe not. The salient point is that we aren't having a big recession, and I doubt we will before 2018, 2019. And by then Brexit is done. So your last chance of stopping it is gone.
Unless you can foresee some crazy new Remoaner wunderwaffe, a brilliant europhile V2 launched from PB's own Peenemunde.
I agree we're leaving. That has never been in dispute.
But there will be pain to come, screaming and wailing from the very people who cheered the result, there may be winners, and there will be many, many losers.
Still, Blue Passports...
Good. You accept we're Out. So why not use your clearly capable brain to push us towards the best possible Brexit, in your opinion?
Yes, I know you think Brexit is shit, but some Brexits must surely be shittier than others, to you. So make the leap. Accept, move on, fight the next battle. You'll be a happier man, and the nation will thank you for your service.
I doubt copying and pasting pro Brexit tweets on here is going to alter the course of the nation much to be honest
@LOS_Fisher: NEW: Clive Lewis says he will SUPPORT 3-line Labour whip on backing Article 50 Bill.
Corbyn is saved (Again )
The mood music in the Country is just to get on with it and MP's should give the A50 bill 100% backing ex the SNP to send the message to the EU that it is now time to start talking
@jessicaelgot: Clive Lewis, Cat Smith, Diane Abbott & Dawn Butler all confirming now they will vote with three-line whip on Article 50 bill. Crisis averted.
@EllieJPrice: Lab MP tells me: Lab whips ringing Lab MPs telling them to vote for art50 while also telling them they themselves intend to vote against it.
This feels a bit Gotterdammerung. I wonder if Corbyn will survive until April.
Tories should be SERIOUSLY planning for an April GE. TMay is mad if she doesn't.
It can easily be sold as a Brexit election, to clear the air. The Tories would romp home with a 100 seat majority, ready to steer the country into the sunlit future of freedom.
Let it be done.
As I see it - the only possible way of Brexit being blocked is if an early general election is called and it goes badly for the Tories. So it's really strange to see it's the most fervent Brexiteers keen on it.
Have Sinn Fein said anything more about whether they'll take their seats to vote against A50?
Do you now accept Brexit is very likely to happen?
I think this might make a good poll for PB-ers: the chances of Brexit being stopped
To my mind, the last serious chance of thwarting Brexit has now gone.
1. Legally it's over, the best hope was the Supreme Court giving Sturgeon a veto. didn't happen. 2. Politically it's over, Remoaners needed Labour to unite behind stalling Brexit, but they didn't. A50 will be triggered 3. Economically it's over: growth in 4Q16 was 0.6%, best in the G7. This momentum will carry forward. There's not gonna be some huge recession changing people's minds. And the polls show the voters are becoming MORE Brexity, anyway. Plus Confirmation Bias.
And with that, it's done. The last forlorn hope for Remainers is a black swan. A war. Comet strike. Spanish flu. Trump nuking us. I dunno. I think it's over. And we're out.
It's a rage against the dying of the light.
Entirely understandably, considering the moral and intellectual darkness that is engulfing us.
In your opinion.
I see Brexit as a fantastic project for national democratic renewal.
Mr. Isam, I wonder if it's a combination of the not-really-a-poll and the political shocks last year leading people to conclude (quite possibly wrongly) that we'll get more in the by-elections.
Have Sinn Fein said anything more about whether they'll take their seats to vote against A50?
Do you now accept Brexit is very likely to happen?
I think this might make a good poll for PB-ers: the chances of Brexit being stopped
To my mind, the last serious chance of thwarting Brexit has now gone.
1. Legally it's over, the best hope was the Supreme Court giving Sturgeon a veto. didn't happen. 2. Politically it's over, Remoaners needed Labour to unite behind stalling Brexit, but they didn't. A50 will be triggered 3. Economically it's over: growth in 4Q16 was 0.6%, best in the G7. This momentum will carry forward. There's not gonna be some huge recession changing people's minds. And the polls show the voters are becoming MORE Brexity, anyway. Plus Confirmation Bias.
And with that, it's done. The last forlorn hope for Remainers is a black swan. A war. Comet strike. Spanish flu. Trump nuking us. I dunno. I think it's over. And we're out.
It's a rage against the dying of the light.
Entirely understandably, considering the moral and intellectual darkness that is engulfing us.
In your opinion.
I see Brexit as a fantastic project for national democratic renewal.
In a difference sense, so do I. We will be confronted with our choices head on, and will be forced to make them.
Mr. Meeks, could be wrong, but I believe I read somewhere that horses are scared of camelry (as camel cavalry is sometimes called). Something along those lines.
Cavalry aren't fond of elephants, for certain. I am unsure of donkey warfare, though.
And it's damned peculiar you've ridden those beasts but not a horse.
@LOS_Fisher: NEW: Clive Lewis says he will SUPPORT 3-line Labour whip on backing Article 50 Bill.
Corbyn is saved (Again )
The mood music in the Country is just to get on with it and MP's should give the A50 bill 100% backing ex the SNP to send the message to the EU that it is now time to start talking
BigG I would agree years more of this would test the patience of even the most politically interested voter.
@EllieJPrice: Lab MP tells me: Lab whips ringing Lab MPs telling them to vote for art50 while also telling them they themselves intend to vote against it.
This feels a bit Gotterdammerung. I wonder if Corbyn will survive until April.
Tories should be SERIOUSLY planning for an April GE. TMay is mad if she doesn't.
It can easily be sold as a Brexit election, to clear the air. The Tories would romp home with a 100 seat majority, ready to steer the country into the sunlit future of freedom.
Let it be done.
As I see it - the only possible way of Brexit being blocked is if an early general election is called and it goes badly for the Tories. So it's really strange to see it's the most fervent Brexiteers keen on it.
The phrase 'drain the poison' resonated with me. We're still incredibly divided on the EU. It was only 52:48 after all. It seems to me that a GE after the white paper would at least allow people to give at least an oblique blessing to HMG (or not!) as it enters the lists on their behalf. Country before party, if you will. We don't want a British version of the Dolchstoßlegende.
Does anyone have a view on Political Betting, rather than repeating what they hope/forecast will happen because Leave won?
What has changed in the last 3 days to make UKIP go from 2.6 to 1.8 in Stoke? Any ideas?
I've been scratching my head about this one. A private poll is the best I can think of. It's not as though it's a particularly thin market either. Perhaps it's just weight of money - kippers' hopes spring eternal and some rightwing Tories are secretly eager to see Labour dished by anyone, even a rival party.
On the evidence publicly available, Labour should be about 1.2 in my opinion. Even that would be an illustration of what a parlous state Labour are in at present.
Does anyone have a view on Political Betting, rather than repeating what they hope/forecast will happen because Leave won?
What has changed in the last 3 days to make UKIP go from 2.6 to 1.8 in Stoke? Any ideas?
The choice of Labour candidate is probably a factor.
Overall, though, I think your implication that the shortening isn't really justified is probably right.
He is the least "Remainy" of the four choices though... Maybe its his silly tweets. I thought it 50/50 at the start of the week, so should really be backing Lab now. Don't really have a big position on it, do you?
On topic... I think OGH interpretation of the survey is a bit off. When people say issues facing Britain... I think they mean problems. If you are keen on brexit... Would you identify it as a problem? I don't think we can assume from this that C2DE voters aren't that fussed about brexit...
Does anyone have a view on Political Betting, rather than repeating what they hope/forecast will happen because Leave won?
What has changed in the last 3 days to make UKIP go from 2.6 to 1.8 in Stoke? Any ideas?
I've been scratching my head about this one. A private poll is the best I can think of. It's not as though it's a particularly thin market either. Perhaps it's just weight of money - kippers' hopes spring eternal and some rightwing Tories are secretly eager to see Labour dished by anyone, even a rival party.
On the evidence publicly available, Labour should be about 1.2 in my opinion. Even that would be an illustration of what a parlous state Labour are in at present.
Looks to me like Labour have done some polling there and they don't like what they are seeing.
Have Sinn Fein said anything more about whether they'll take their seats to vote against A50?
Do you now accept Brexit is very likely to happen?
I think this might make a good poll for PB-ers: the chances of Brexit being stopped
To my mind, the last serious chance of thwarting Brexit has now gone.
1. Legally it's over, the best hope was the Supreme Court giving Sturgeon a veto. didn't happen. 2. Politically it's over, Remoaners needed Labour to unite behind stalling Brexit, but they didn't. A50 will be triggered 3. Economically it's over: growth in 4Q16 was 0.6%, best in the G7. This momentum will carry forward. There's not gonna be some huge recession changing people's minds. And the polls show the voters are becoming MORE Brexity, anyway. Plus Confirmation Bias.
And with that, it's done. The last forlorn hope for Remainers is a black swan. A war. Comet strike. Spanish flu. Trump nuking us. I dunno. I think it's over. And we're out.
It's a rage against the dying of the light.
Entirely understandably, considering the moral and intellectual darkness that is engulfing us.
In your opinion.
I see Brexit as a fantastic project for national democratic renewal.
Brexit will not renew anything positive, being born of xenophobia. It cannot shrug off the circumstances of its birth.
He is the least "Remainy" of the four choices though... Maybe its his silly tweets. I thought it 50/50 at the start of the week, so should really be backing Lab now. Don't really have a big position on it, do you?
No, I've kept out of this one. I'm on Labour in Copeland.
If I had to choose, I'd also back Labour in Stoke (I think they should be mild favourites), but it's a hard one to read.
"Separately, the leadership is braced to lose both Copeland and the Stoke-on-Trent by-elections."
Given that both MPs going when they are going might be coincidence, but is more likely seen by both them of them as wanting to be part of a process that puts the skids under Corbyn, does anyone have any on-the-ground insight as to whether the local Labour Party is going full tilt at the by-elections - or are either/both of them going to keep their leafleting boots in the hallway as they help the skids process by sitting it out?
The one person apart from Theresa May who has enhanced their reputation is David Davis. Listening to him in debates he is friendly and well briefed and must take credit for getting the A50 to a point where it is about to be authorised.
I do believe that Gina Miller is the unexpected loser in her pursuit of the law as the Supreme Court didn't only just give the Government the OK to decide the bill for serving A50 but that the devolved powers had no ability to derail the process.
Her aim was to frustrate the process and eventually stop Brexit but the Government now has the Supreme Court ruling that cannot be challenged
He is the least "Remainy" of the four choices though... Maybe its his silly tweets. I thought it 50/50 at the start of the week, so should really be backing Lab now. Don't really have a big position on it, do you?
No, I've kept out of this one. I'm on Labour in Copeland.
If I had to choose, I'd also back Labour in Stoke (I think they should be mild favourites), but it's a hard one to read.
I think Labour will hold Stoke.
Copeland, less sure. What makes me hesitate is that there is a future for a Tory MP for Copeland (as he or she will contest and most likely claim the enlarged Barrow seat at the next General Election).
Unless Woodcock goes, there is no future for a Labour MP for Copeland.
So, I just wonder if this makes the Tory candidate and team more motivated in what will be a close by-election.
The one person apart from Theresa May who has enhanced their reputation is David Davis. Listening to him in debates he is friendly and well briefed and must take credit for getting the A50 to a point where it is about to be authorised. ...
Yes, I'm very pleasantly surprised by DD's performance.
Hacksaw Ridge is a stunningly good war film - or film, period. If La La Land weren't being lauded like Ben Hur, it might stand a chance. And I far preferred Andrew Garfield's performance in it to that of the much-touted Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea.
Amy Adams getting overlooked for Best Actress in Arrival was a shock. I suppose somebody had to lose out so Meryl could get her 20th....
Very gratified though to see Hidden Figures getting a Best Picture Nom. Entirely deserved. The film I most ENJOYED out of the whole awards crop."
MM
I'm just catching up. I saw Manchester by the Sea which I thought was pretty good though too depressing to win anything but I did think Casey Affleck was good. I also saw 'Jackie' which I liked a lot and if NP doesn't win best actress I'd be very surprised. A compulsive performance as was the film. Very well directed too for such a small tale and not like a biopic at all which I generally don't like. Next to see is Lalaland this afternoon then Hidden Figures which I'm looking forward to and Hacksaw Ridge less so.
Agree on "Jackie" - her performance WAS the film. Must be a strong favourite unless the Academy go completely bonkers over La La Land. Which has to be a possibility, it being set in LA and all...
Hacksaw RIdge has a very strong potential appeal to the liberal left - a true story of a conscientious objector, the hell he has to go through in training and his extraordinary war - being capped off by receiving the highest gallantry medal in the US. The sort of story that might well appeal to those who really dislike Trump - and I'm thinking that is maybe 85% of Academy voters. (Set against that, I guess many would not want to see Mel Gibson to prosper as director - so the value there is on Andrew Garfield who is well gong-worthy). BTW make sure you stay to the very end of Hacksaw Ridge (which is a bit of an endurance, because arguably its only fault is it feels a good 15 minutes too long).
I read up on Hacksaw Ridge after I saw the film - contrary to most Hollywood fare they actually toned down rather than exaggerated the heroics....which makes the true life story even more remarkable.
One of the the quirks of British military history that I like is that one of our double VC winners achieved both without killing anyone.
Have Sinn Fein said anything more about whether they'll take their seats to vote against A50?
Do you now accept Brexit is very likely to happen?
I think this might make a good poll for PB-ers: the chances of Brexit being stopped
To my mind, the last serious chance of thwarting Brexit has now gone.
1. Legally it's over, the best hope was the Supreme Court giving Sturgeon a veto. didn't happen. 2. Politically it's over, Remoaners needed Labour to unite behind stalling Brexit, but they didn't. A50 will be triggered 3. Economically it's over: growth in 4Q16 was 0.6%, best in the G7. This momentum will carry forward. There's not gonna be some huge recession changing people's minds. And the polls show the voters are becoming MORE Brexity, anyway. Plus Confirmation Bias.
And with that, it's done. The last forlorn hope for Remainers is a black swan. A war. Comet strike. Spanish flu. Trump nuking us. I dunno. I think it's over. And we're out.
It's a rage against the dying of the light.
Entirely understandably, considering the moral and intellectual darkness that is engulfing us.
In your opinion.
I see Brexit as a fantastic project for national democratic renewal.
Brexit will not renew anything positive, being born of xenophobia. It cannot shrug off the circumstances of its birth.
So anyone born of a drunken one night stand is unable to live up to anything positive?
@EllieJPrice: Lab MP tells me: Lab whips ringing Lab MPs telling them to vote for art50 while also telling them they themselves intend to vote against it.
This feels a bit Gotterdammerung. I wonder if Corbyn will survive until April.
Tories should be SERIOUSLY planning for an April GE. TMay is mad if she doesn't.
It can easily be sold as a Brexit election, to clear the air. The Tories would romp home with a 100 seat majority, ready to steer the country into the sunlit future of freedom.
Let it be done.
As I see it - the only possible way of Brexit being blocked is if an early general election is called and it goes badly for the Tories. So it's really strange to see it's the most fervent Brexiteers keen on it.
The phrase 'drain the poison' resonated with me. We're still incredibly divided on the EU. It was only 52:48 after all. It seems to me that a GE after the white paper would at least allow people to give at least an oblique blessing to HMG (or not!) as it enters the lists on their behalf. Country before party, if you will. We don't want a British version of the Dolchstoßlegende.
The problem with that plan from McDonnell is that if they vote through article 50 with no amendments of theirs added (which is possible - maybe even probable) they are on the sidelines shouting from that point on. And all their opponents will be able to say "well, you voted for it".
Have Sinn Fein said anything more about whether they'll take their seats to vote against A50?
Do you now accept Brexit is very likely to happen?
I think this might make a good poll for PB-ers: the chances of Brexit being stopped
To my mind, the last serious chance of thwarting Brexit has now gone.
1. Legally it's over, the best hope was the Supreme Court giving Sturgeon a veto. didn't happen. 2. Politically it's over, Remoaners needed Labour to unite behind stalling Brexit, but they didn't. A50 will be triggered 3. Economically it's over: growth in 4Q16 was 0.6%, best in the G7. This momentum will carry forward. There's not gonna be some huge recession changing people's minds. And the polls show the voters are becoming MORE Brexity, anyway. Plus Confirmation Bias.
And with that, it's done. The last forlorn hope for Remainers is a black swan. A war. Comet strike. Spanish flu. Trump nuking us. I dunno. I think it's over. And we're out.
It's a rage against the dying of the light.
Entirely understandably, considering the moral and intellectual darkness that is engulfing us.
In your opinion.
I see Brexit as a fantastic project for national democratic renewal.
In a difference sense, so do I. We will be confronted with our choices head on, and will be forced to make them.
@EllieJPrice: Lab MP tells me: Lab whips ringing Lab MPs telling them to vote for art50 while also telling them they themselves intend to vote against it.
This feels a bit Gotterdammerung. I wonder if Corbyn will survive until April.
Tories should be SERIOUSLY planning for an April GE. TMay is mad if she doesn't.
It can easily be sold as a Brexit election, to clear the air. The Tories would romp home with a 100 seat majority, ready to steer the country into the sunlit future of freedom.
Let it be done.
As I see it - the only possible way of Brexit being blocked is if an early general election is called and it goes badly for the Tories. So it's really strange to see it's the most fervent Brexiteers keen on it.
The phrase 'drain the poison' resonated with me. We're still incredibly divided on the EU. It was only 52:48 after all. It seems to me that a GE after the white paper would at least allow people to give at least an oblique blessing to HMG (or not!) as it enters the lists on their behalf. Country before party, if you will. We don't want a British version of the Dolchstoßlegende.
A GE conversely might split parties as MPs campaign saying I will or won't vote for A50.
It could be a re run of the referendum except with a lower, more remain focused turnout and might strengthen remainers resolve to ignore referendum if they were re-elected on that platform.
Imagine the chaos if we ended up with a hung parliament?
I think TM is right to be wary about an early election.
There's a VC winner buried near me. His, on the other hand, reads like a Blackadder skirmish.
I own the miniature medals and medal ribbons of Charles Hazlitt Upham, VC and Bar. Reading about him, he was a nutter. He used to stroll around the battle field with a bag of grenades, blowing things up. There were probably six separate occasions when he could have justifiably been awarded the VC, but they thought twice would suffice.
Does anyone have a view on Political Betting, rather than repeating what they hope/forecast will happen because Leave won?
What has changed in the last 3 days to make UKIP go from 2.6 to 1.8 in Stoke? Any ideas?
I've been scratching my head about this one. A private poll is the best I can think of. It's not as though it's a particularly thin market either. Perhaps it's just weight of money - kippers' hopes spring eternal and some rightwing Tories are secretly eager to see Labour dished by anyone, even a rival party.
On the evidence publicly available, Labour should be about 1.2 in my opinion. Even that would be an illustration of what a parlous state Labour are in at present.
Looks to me like Labour have done some polling there and they don't like what they are seeing.
Really, Labour should hold both comfortably. At this rate I'll be topping up my Labour position with perhaps the tiniest hint of LD at 50ish for a giggle.
He is the least "Remainy" of the four choices though... Maybe its his silly tweets. I thought it 50/50 at the start of the week, so should really be backing Lab now. Don't really have a big position on it, do you?
No, I've kept out of this one. I'm on Labour in Copeland.
If I had to choose, I'd also back Labour in Stoke (I think they should be mild favourites), but it's a hard one to read.
I think Labour will hold Stoke.
Copeland, less sure. What makes me hesitate is that there is a future for a Tory MP for Copeland (as he or she will contest and most likely claim the enlarged Barrow seat at the next General Election).
Unless Woodcock goes, there is no future for a Labour MP for Copeland.
So, I just wonder if this makes the Tory candidate and team more motivated in what will be a close by-election.
See John Woodcock and Isabel Hardman are reputed to be an item. I hope it works out for her following her recent depression
Have Sinn Fein said anything more about whether they'll take their seats to vote against A50?
Do you now accept Brexit is very likely to happen?
I think this might make a good poll for PB-ers: the chances of Brexit being stopped
To my mind, the last serious chance of thwarting Brexit has now gone.
1. Legally it's over, the best hope was the Supreme Court giving Sturgeon a veto. didn't happen. 2. Politically it's over, Remoaners needed Labour to unite behind stalling Brexit, but they didn't. A50 will be triggered 3. Economically it's over: growth in 4Q16 was 0.6%, best in the G7. This momentum will carry forward. There's not gonna be some huge recession changing people's minds. And the polls show the voters are becoming MORE Brexity, anyway. Plus Confirmation Bias.
And with that, it's done. The last forlorn hope for Remainers is a black swan. A war. Comet strike. Spanish flu. Trump nuking us. I dunno. I think it's over. And we're out.
It's a rage against the dying of the light.
Entirely understandably, considering the moral and intellectual darkness that is engulfing us.
In your opinion.
I see Brexit as a fantastic project for national democratic renewal.
Brexit will not renew anything positive, being born of xenophobia. It cannot shrug off the circumstances of its birth.
It (and it really does) genuinely upset me that you think that but border control was always going to feature in any Leave campaign, and rightly so.
Leave won from a coalition of sovereignists, including many centrists, graduates and post graduates, as well as those concerned on immigration. It wouldn't have got 52% otherwise.
Any either or strategy would have topped out at 35% for Leave.
The one person apart from Theresa May who has enhanced their reputation is David Davis. Listening to him in debates he is friendly and well briefed and must take credit for getting the A50 to a point where it is about to be authorised.
Have Sinn Fein said anything more about whether they'll take their seats to vote against A50?
Do you now accept Brexit is very likely to happen?
I think this might make a good poll for PB-ers: the chances of Brexit being stopped
To my mind, the last serious chance of thwarting Brexit has now gone.
1. Legally it's over, the best hope was the Supreme Court giving Sturgeon a veto. didn't happen. 2. Politically it's over, Remoaners needed Labour to unite behind stalling Brexit, but they didn't. A50 will be triggered 3. Economically it's over: growth in 4Q16 was 0.6%, best in the G7. This momentum will carry forward. There's not gonna be some huge recession changing people's minds. And the polls show the voters are becoming MORE Brexity, anyway. Plus Confirmation Bias.
And with that, it's done. The last forlorn hope for Remainers is a black swan. A war. Comet strike. Spanish flu. Trump nuking us. I dunno. I think it's over. And we're out.
It's a rage against the dying of the light.
Entirely understandably, considering the moral and intellectual darkness that is engulfing us.
In your opinion.
I see Brexit as a fantastic project for national democratic renewal.
Brexit will not renew anything positive, being born of xenophobia. It cannot shrug off the circumstances of its birth.
It (and it really does) genuinely upset me that you think that but border control was always going to feature in any Leave campaign, and rightly so.
Leave won from a coalition of sovereignists, including many centrists, graduates and post graduates, as well as those concerned on immigration.
Any either or strategy would have topped out at 35% for Leave.
Leave got over the line with "Turkey (population 76 million) is joining the EU" and the Breaking Point poster. Mealymouthed nonsense about a coalition is just that: mealymouthed nonsense.
Having won by pandering to xenophobia, Brexit is damned from the start by the way in which it was won.
Does anyone have a view on Political Betting, rather than repeating what they hope/forecast will happen because Leave won?
What has changed in the last 3 days to make UKIP go from 2.6 to 1.8 in Stoke? Any ideas?
I've been scratching my head about this one. A private poll is the best I can think of. It's not as though it's a particularly thin market either. Perhaps it's just weight of money - kippers' hopes spring eternal and some rightwing Tories are secretly eager to see Labour dished by anyone, even a rival party.
On the evidence publicly available, Labour should be about 1.2 in my opinion. Even that would be an illustration of what a parlous state Labour are in at present.
Looks to me like Labour have done some polling there and they don't like what they are seeing.
Really, Labour should hold both comfortably. At this rate I'll be topping up my Labour position with perhaps the tiniest hint of LD at 50ish for a giggle.
Pro Labour in Stoke. But anti-UKiP in Copeland. Bit annoyed I didn't get on the better odds available later in Stoke but don't want to bet much on this one.
Comments
Should have kept polite and filmed it, then reported the protester.
Having reported that some MPs would resign if whipped, and that Corbyn was whipping, accused them of fake news...
@SimonAttwood: @BethRigby Anyone can write stuff and say it's a transcript. Particularly a corporation pro Brexit and anti Corbyn. Do you have it on tape?
@BethRigby: Yes this transcript is from a broadcast clip that has been played on @skynews. We don't make up transcripts. Obviously. twitter.com/simonattwood/s…
https://twitter.com/Rupert_Seggins/status/824556662375796737/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
We'd also still be in the same bodies after A50 is declared, yet that is when apocalypse is due.
While there is a 'recommendation' that EU countries have shades of burgundy, so as to make the lives of passport control checks at busy interchanges easier (and to make sorting of passengers into lines simple by just glancing at passport covers), passport colour has never been a treaty obligation.
Everything is going to be fantastic! Really can't wait. Let's get on with it.
Ah, me, what am I saying, he'll probably do it for precisely that reason. Perhaps, in some twisted way, he's trying to shake the PLP loose.
Baffling.
But there will be pain to come, screaming and wailing from the very people who cheered the result, there may be winners, and there will be many, many losers.
Still, Blue Passports...
Edit: Ah, it is a three line whip after all.
If she is actually reasonably shaggable then fair play for asking.
Maybe she's a moose and he's being sarcastic?
You can't judge this story without a photo of her. Ideally topless - for research purposes, obviously.
"No deal is better than a bad deal"
Politically short term for her, maybe. For us, no.
The serious chance to stop it comes after A50 has been invoked and it is seen to be failing. There are two main ways this can happen which will possibly feed into each other - a constitutional mess over Scotland, or the absence of a deal or any meaningful deals with other countries and 'global Brexit' becoming a bad joke.
May's enthusiasm to get into bed with Trump is an early sign that she is walking a political tightrope. I still think her poll ratings will crash and burn faster than John Major's after it starts to go south.
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0168532
Which gave me a perverse sense of satisfaction.
One third of all households own their properties outright. Outright homeowners were among those most strongly supportive of Brexit.
So were social tenants and those on low incomes. They really don't have much to lose.
It is knowledge of these basic facts that seemed to escape the masterminds of project fear.
1. Maugham's court case in Ireland results in an ECJ ruling that A50 is revocable (ideally, unilaterally revocable).
2. Something appallingly bad happens to the UK economy (or perhaps just one section of it - e.g. Nissan announces immediate relocation of all manufacturing to Slovenia or some such, or the City decides, en masse, that Frankfurt isn't just a howling cultural desert after all and decamps).
2a. An actual shooting war breaks out over the Baltics or Ukraine.
3. The Tories get frit, panic and withdraw A50.
As I say, unlikely. But it's a whacky old world out there.
@LOS_Fisher: NEW: Clive Lewis says he will SUPPORT 3-line Labour whip on backing Article 50 Bill.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noel_Godfrey_Chavasse
There's a VC winner buried near me. His, on the other hand, reads like a Blackadder skirmish.
https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/824651055392817152
What has changed in the last 3 days to make UKIP go from 2.6 to 1.8 in Stoke? Any ideas?
I see Brexit as a fantastic project for national democratic renewal.
After all, Glenrothes followed Glasgow East.
"Separately, the leadership is braced to lose both Copeland and the Stoke-on-Trent by-elections."
Overall, though, I think your implication that the shortening isn't really justified is probably right.
Cavalry aren't fond of elephants, for certain. I am unsure of donkey warfare, though.
And it's damned peculiar you've ridden those beasts but not a horse.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/stoke-on-trent-central-by-election/winning-party/bet-history/ukip/today
riotsdemocratic outpourings of expression when this doesn't happen...https://twitter.com/MichaelPDeacon/status/747000584226607104/photo/1
The phrase 'drain the poison' resonated with me. We're still incredibly divided on the EU. It was only 52:48 after all. It seems to me that a GE after the white paper would at least allow people to give at least an oblique blessing to HMG (or not!) as it enters the lists on their behalf. Country before party, if you will. We don't want a British version of the Dolchstoßlegende.
On the evidence publicly available, Labour should be about 1.2 in my opinion. Even that would be an illustration of what a parlous state Labour are in at present.
When people say issues facing Britain... I think they mean problems.
If you are keen on brexit... Would you identify it as a problem? I don't think we can assume from this that C2DE voters aren't that fussed about brexit...
If I had to choose, I'd also back Labour in Stoke (I think they should be mild favourites), but it's a hard one to read.
Tezza said she doesn't care if we don't get a deal. And she doesn't. Others do.
Sounds like a plan...
I do believe that Gina Miller is the unexpected loser in her pursuit of the law as the Supreme Court didn't only just give the Government the OK to decide the bill for serving A50 but that the devolved powers had no ability to derail the process.
Her aim was to frustrate the process and eventually stop Brexit but the Government now has the Supreme Court ruling that cannot be challenged
I think Labour will hold Stoke.
Copeland, less sure. What makes me hesitate is that there is a future for a Tory MP for Copeland (as he or she will contest and most likely claim the enlarged Barrow seat at the next General Election).
Unless Woodcock goes, there is no future for a Labour MP for Copeland.
So, I just wonder if this makes the Tory candidate and team more motivated in what will be a close by-election.
She's happy with no deal
Theresa May did not say that.
As I thought you've closed your ears.
It could be a re run of the referendum except with a lower, more remain focused turnout and might strengthen remainers resolve to ignore referendum if they were re-elected on that platform.
Imagine the chaos if we ended up with a hung parliament?
I think TM is right to be wary about an early election.
Leave won from a coalition of sovereignists, including many centrists, graduates and post graduates, as well as those concerned on immigration. It wouldn't have got 52% otherwise.
Any either or strategy would have topped out at 35% for Leave.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0783m5p
Having won by pandering to xenophobia, Brexit is damned from the start by the way in which it was won.
Bit annoyed I didn't get on the better odds available later in Stoke but don't want to bet much on this one.