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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There’s an argument for saying that REMAINers feel more strongly about BREXIT than Leavers

One of those involved in the LDs recent successes observed to me recently they were finding that those opposed to BREXIT have much stronger feelings about the issue than those who aren’t. In many ways this is understandable because they are against the status quo and everything is moving towards the UK leaving the EU.

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TheScreamingEagles

Interesting.

I'm more upset that Dave is no longer PM, and George is languishing on the backbenches than losing the referendum.

tlg86

First. TSE is a cheat.

Theuniondivvie

3rd like Theresa May in the race for Brit pols to kiss President Trump's erse.

TheScreamingEagles

tlg86 said:

First. TSE is a cheat.

That's just an alternative fact.

Jonathan

Remainers are angry. The Leavers are anxious. It could easily switch.

Pulpstar

I made this point a long time before we left, that those regarding the EU as highly salient in IPSOS MORI issues index would "flip" should we ever leave (Or it looks inevitable).

Its always the same, people never regard anything as salient if they're broadly happy with it, the ungrateful hoi polloi.

Theuniondivvie

Jonathan said:

Remainers are angry. The Leavers are anxious. It could easily switch.

Leavers already seem to be on quite a short fuse tbh.

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

I made this point a long time before we left, that those regarding the EU as highly salient in IPSOS MORI issues index would "flip" should we ever leave (Or it looks inevitable).

Its always the same, people never regard anything as salient if they're broadly happy with it, the ungrateful hoi polloi.

Feckin' plebs.

david_herdson

Lib Dems are 50/1 for Stoke. Mike has form with tipping 50/1 bets and there might actually be a bit of value there - we live in such a state of flux that what ought to be impossible isn't. But for all that, I don't expect the Lib Dems to come close.

Oh, and first, because I'm worth it.

david_herdson

SeanT said:

fpt for NPXMP

Um, when I did my stint in Wormwood Scrubs prison in the late 1980s, "23 hour lock up" was the norm - we spent 23 hours of every day locked in our cells. With a bucket (they were still slopping out back then)

Did we riot? Did we hell. We put our heads down and did our bird. I'm quite frankly ashamed of the calibre of modern British criminals. They don't know their born.

"Their born" what? Supremacy?

SouthamObserver

SeanT said:

fpt for NPXMP

Um, when I did my stint in Wormwood Scrubs prison in the late 1980s, "23 hour lock up" was the norm - we spent 23 hours of every day locked in our cells. With a bucket (they were still slopping out back then)

Did we riot? Did we hell. We put our heads down and did our bird. I'm quite frankly ashamed of the calibre of modern British criminals. They don't know their born.

I sense you are in a good place currently. Time for a novel.

rkrkrk

There was a discussion on here about Trident...
Do we need a different system that is more independent of the US?

The level of military knowledge on here seems to a complete non-expert like me to be very high so interested to hear views.

(Assuming you accept the premise that Trump is not a friend of the UK)

MarqueeMark

What we've learnt after Brexit: Remainers are the biggest cry-babies.

And they find democratic outcomes really, really hard to live with.

TheScreamingEagles

rkrkrk said:

There was a discussion on here about Trident...
Do we need a different system that is more independent of the US?

The level of military knowledge on here seems to a complete non-expert like me to be very high so interested to hear views.

(Assuming you accept the premise that Trump is not a friend of the UK)

I've always wanted a plane based nuclear deterrent.

dr_spyn

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting.

I'm more upset that Dave is no longer PM, and George is languishing on the backbenches than losing the referendum.

I was surprised that Dave and George didn't spell out how they would transform the EU. They couldn't even manage a half decent concession from Brussels last spring to save their careers. Dave's GE victory in 2015 is trumped by his abysmal referendum defeat.

On the other hand May has not dropped HS2, Hinkley Point, & The Northern Powerhouse, three of Osborne's cherished white elephant reserves. It is a funny old world in politics.

FeersumEnjineeya

rkrkrk said:

There was a discussion on here about Trident...
Do we need a different system that is more independent of the US?

The level of military knowledge on here seems to a complete non-expert like me to be very high so interested to hear views.

(Assuming you accept the premise that Trump is not a friend of the UK)

The Galileo satellite navigation system is certainly looking like a good idea now.

Scott_P

MarqueeMark said:

What we've learnt after Brexit: Remainers are the biggest cry-babies.

ROFL

From the man who says it's all someone else's fault. All of it. Everything. Ever.

It's NOT FAIR to lay any blame for Brexit at the door of a Brexiteer...

Wah, wah, wah

glw

rkrkrk said:

Do we need a different system that is more independent of the US?

If we want to spend a lot more money on a worse system then the answer is yes. We have a very good deal with the US piggy-backing on their SLBM development, I see no reason why we would want to change it.

MarqueeMark

Scott_P said:

MarqueeMark said:

What we've learnt after Brexit: Remainers are the biggest cry-babies.

ROFL

From the man who says it's all someone else's fault. All of it. Everything. Ever.

It's NOT FAIR to lay any blame for Brexit at the door of a Brexiteer...

Wah, wah, wah

Point proven. Thank you.

Loser.

peter_from_putney

TheScreamingEagles said:

Interesting.

I'm more upset that Dave is no longer PM, and George is languishing on the backbenches than losing the referendum.

Maybe, but after showing early promise, Dave was ultimately a disappointing PM who needlessly chucked it all away, as indeed was Osborne a disappointing Chancellor, following a number of embarrassing and credibility destroying U-turns and ultimately not succeeding in getting to grips with the the promised key numbers for the economy.

williamglenn

Remember Trump on Romney? It's not hard to imagine him expressing similar sentiments about Theresa May in future, perhaps to another world leader.

I could have said, "Mitt drop to your knees," he would have dropped to his knees. He was begging me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_XCy-vYMJs

TheScreamingEagles

SeanT said:

fpt for NPXMP

Um, when I did my stint in Wormwood Scrubs prison in the late 1980s, "23 hour lock up" was the norm - we spent 23 hours of every day locked in our cells. With a bucket (they were still slopping out back then)

Did we riot? Did we hell. We put our heads down and did our bird. I'm quite frankly ashamed of the calibre of modern British criminals. They don't know their born.

Yer what? Have you forgotten the Strangeways riot and the other prison riots of that era that led to the Lord Wolff inquiry into prisons that led to major prison reform.

david_herdson

rkrkrk said:

There was a discussion on here about Trident...
Do we need a different system that is more independent of the US?

The level of military knowledge on here seems to a complete non-expert like me to be very high so interested to hear views.

(Assuming you accept the premise that Trump is not a friend of the UK)

Whether or not Trump is a friend of the UK, it should be clear from Bush's unilateralism, Obama's Angloscepticism and Trump's mavereickness that the US cannot be relied upon to perceive itself to share Britain's strategic interests in the way that it did when the original Polaris deal was done and then the subsequent Trident ones. So yes, I think we probably do need either an entirely independent one or one that is - ironically given other events - shared with the French.

SimonStClare

Britain is moving inexorably towards withdrawal from the EU, those that voted to leave, or have accepted the democratic result of the referendum will feel comfortable with the direction of travel, diehard Remainers and EU Federalists zealots, not so much...

SouthamObserver

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

fpt for NPXMP

Um, when I did my stint in Wormwood Scrubs prison in the late 1980s, "23 hour lock up" was the norm - we spent 23 hours of every day locked in our cells. With a bucket (they were still slopping out back then)

Did we riot? Did we hell. We put our heads down and did our bird. I'm quite frankly ashamed of the calibre of modern British criminals. They don't know their born.

I sense you are in a good place currently. Time for a novel.

I'm a quarter of the way into the writing of my next Tremayne thriller. In Bangkok.

By 10am your time it's 5pm my time and I've done my work for the day, had a swim, caught some sun, and eaten a nice seafood lunch, so yes I am generally in a very benign mood, around about now.

I dunno who said "I hate writing, I love having written" but there's a lot of truth in it. Though the actual writing itself can be a tremendous buzz if it's going REALLY well. Usually not the case.

There is something very satisfying in having done your words for the day; even in my relatively obscure, unremarkable line of work. Then it all starts to build up once more, when you realise you have to do it all over again in the morning.

mwadams

SeanT said:

Does Trump have a grudge against Germany?

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/824564320176594945

He's seen "Saving Private Ryan" and blames Angela Merkel for the death of Tom Hanks.

SouthamObserver

SeanT said:

Does Trump have a grudge against Germany?

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/824564320176594945

He wants to destroy the EU. If he can get at Germany he is more likely to achieve this. It would, of course, be catastrophic for the UK economy were that to happen.

Pulpstar

How much does the USA give to the IMF at the moment, just out of interest ?

rkrkrk

david_herdson said:

rkrkrk said:

There was a discussion on here about Trident...
Do we need a different system that is more independent of the US?

The level of military knowledge on here seems to a complete non-expert like me to be very high so interested to hear views.

(Assuming you accept the premise that Trump is not a friend of the UK)

Whether or not Trump is a friend of the UK, it should be clear from Bush's unilateralism, Obama's Angloscepticism and Trump's mavereickness that the US cannot be relied upon to perceive itself to share Britain's strategic interests in the way that it did when the original Polaris deal was done and then the subsequent Trident ones. So yes, I think we probably do need either an entirely independent one or one that is - ironically given other events - shared with the French.

Interesting.
French because we are so geographically close?

david_herdson

SeanT said:

david_herdson said:

rkrkrk said:

There was a discussion on here about Trident...
Do we need a different system that is more independent of the US?

The level of military knowledge on here seems to a complete non-expert like me to be very high so interested to hear views.

(Assuming you accept the premise that Trump is not a friend of the UK)

Whether or not Trump is a friend of the UK, it should be clear from Bush's unilateralism, Obama's Angloscepticism and Trump's mavereickness that the US cannot be relied upon to perceive itself to share Britain's strategic interests in the way that it did when the original Polaris deal was done and then the subsequent Trident ones. So yes, I think we probably do need either an entirely independent one or one that is - ironically given other events - shared with the French.

Polaris was done AFTER Suez. So your point is incoherent.

It was done after the lesson that Britain took from Suez was never to get so far from US policy again. With the dismantling of empire and until the end of the Cold War, that was possible. Not so much now.

SandyRentool

So the LibDems are the posh people's party.

You can picture them sat at their vegan dinner parties saying how horrible all of these working class Leave supporters are. Poor dears.

RoyalBlue

Love the synthetic rage of the Remainer MPs about the timetable for the Article 50 bill. What is there to discuss?

We are leaving.

MikeSmithson

david_herdson said:

Lib Dems are 50/1 for Stoke. Mike has form with tipping 50/1 bets and there might actually be a bit of value there - we live in such a state of flux that what ought to be impossible isn't. But for all that, I don't expect the Lib Dems to come close.

Oh, and first, because I'm worth it.

I've £20 on at 50/1. I don't expect to win but can envisage the situation where they do so. LAB choosing a strong LEAVER is a gift that the highly accomplished LD team will exploit. It blocks out any notion of a progressive alliance.

Scott_P

@davieclegg: David Mundell has confirmed that the "Great Repeal Bill" will trigger a legislative consent motion at Holyrood. Major headache for UK Gov.

OldKingCole

mwadams said:

SeanT said:

Does Trump have a grudge against Germany?

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/824564320176594945

He's seen "Saving Private Ryan" and blames Angela Merkel for the death of Tom Hanks.

Wasn’t his grandfather (or possiblly gt grandfather) banned from one of the Germany states for refusing to do miltary service?

Edit: Thought so;found a reference https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/21/trump-grandfather-friedrich-banished-germany-historian-royal-decree

williamglenn

david_herdson said:

It was done after the lesson that Britain took from Suez was never to get so far from US policy again. With the dismantling of empire and until the end of the Cold War, that was possible. Not so much now.

There's an added irony in the recent outpouring of appreciation for De Gaulle among some leavers who approvingly quote his remarks after the original French veto of our EEC membership.

RoyalBlue

Scott_P said:

@davieclegg: David Mundell has confirmed that the "Great Repeal Bill" will trigger a legislative consent motion at Holyrood. Major headache for UK Gov.

May needs to call an election. A majority in the mid-teens won't cut it against the obstacles she faces.

isam

MikeSmithson said:

david_herdson said:

Lib Dems are 50/1 for Stoke. Mike has form with tipping 50/1 bets and there might actually be a bit of value there - we live in such a state of flux that what ought to be impossible isn't. But for all that, I don't expect the Lib Dems to come close.

Oh, and first, because I'm worth it.

I've £20 on at 50/1. I don't expect to win but can envisage the situation where they do so. LAB choosing a strong LEAVER is a gift that the highly accomplished LD team will exploit. It blocks out any notion of a progressive alliance.

A strong Leaver who voted Remain? What is this new world we live in?

"Accepting the result" =Strong Leaver???

PM = Leaver
LotO = Leaver
FM = Leaver
Lib Dem leader = Leaver
Green Party Leaders= Leavers

Vive la Revolution!

Theuniondivvie

mwadams said:

SeanT said:

Does Trump have a grudge against Germany?

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/824564320176594945

He's seen "Saving Private Ryan" and blames Angela Merkel for the death of Tom Hanks.

And it was Muslim soldiers from the SS Handschar division that did it.

This is an alternative fact obvs.

OldKingCole

isam said:

MikeSmithson said:

david_herdson said:

Lib Dems are 50/1 for Stoke. Mike has form with tipping 50/1 bets and there might actually be a bit of value there - we live in such a state of flux that what ought to be impossible isn't. But for all that, I don't expect the Lib Dems to come close.

Oh, and first, because I'm worth it.

I've £20 on at 50/1. I don't expect to win but can envisage the situation where they do so. LAB choosing a strong LEAVER is a gift that the highly accomplished LD team will exploit. It blocks out any notion of a progressive alliance.

A strong Leaver who voted Remain? What is this new world we live in?

"Accepting the result" =Strong Leaver???

PM = Leaver
LotO = Leaver
FM = Leaver
Lib Dem leader = Leaver
Green Party Leaders= Leavers

Vive la Revolution!

I’ve got to admit, as a committed Remainer, that Macbeth had a point ‘if it were done, twere best it were done quickly!’

However, I still hope that when the public see what a mess we’re going to get ourselves into, a second referendum will keep us IN.

Edit. FFS strikes again!

mwadams

OldKingCole said:

mwadams said:

SeanT said:

Does Trump have a grudge against Germany?

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/824564320176594945

He's seen "Saving Private Ryan" and blames Angela Merkel for the death of Tom Hanks.

Wasn’t his grandfather (or possiblly gt grandfather) banned from one of the Germany states for refusing to do miltary service?

Edit: Thought so;found a reference https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/21/trump-grandfather-friedrich-banished-germany-historian-royal-decree

Interesting - I didn't know that.

Pulpstar

rkrkrk said:

david_herdson said:

rkrkrk said:

There was a discussion on here about Trident...
Do we need a different system that is more independent of the US?

The level of military knowledge on here seems to a complete non-expert like me to be very high so interested to hear views.

(Assuming you accept the premise that Trump is not a friend of the UK)

Whether or not Trump is a friend of the UK, it should be clear from Bush's unilateralism, Obama's Angloscepticism and Trump's mavereickness that the US cannot be relied upon to perceive itself to share Britain's strategic interests in the way that it did when the original Polaris deal was done and then the subsequent Trident ones. So yes, I think we probably do need either an entirely independent one or one that is - ironically given other events - shared with the French.

Interesting.
French because we are so geographically close?

France would make sense, we're two similiar sized (Pop wise) nations with broadly similiar sized economies - it would also be a good move in soft diplomatic terms ingratiating ourselves in a vital aspect with one of the big two in a post-Brexit EU.

david_herdson

rkrkrk said:

david_herdson said:

rkrkrk said:

There was a discussion on here about Trident...
Do we need a different system that is more independent of the US?

The level of military knowledge on here seems to a complete non-expert like me to be very high so interested to hear views.

(Assuming you accept the premise that Trump is not a friend of the UK)

Whether or not Trump is a friend of the UK, it should be clear from Bush's unilateralism, Obama's Angloscepticism and Trump's mavereickness that the US cannot be relied upon to perceive itself to share Britain's strategic interests in the way that it did when the original Polaris deal was done and then the subsequent Trident ones. So yes, I think we probably do need either an entirely independent one or one that is - ironically given other events - shared with the French.

Interesting.
French because we are so geographically close?

Briefly, yes. Geographically close and similarly sized. We largely share global interests and threats and as more-or-less equal partners, there'd be a much smaller risk of one side unilaterally withdrawing and leaving the other in the lurch than there is at the moment.

YBarddCwsc

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

fpt for NPXMP

Um, when I did my stint in Wormwood Scrubs prison in the late 1980s, "23 hour lock up" was the norm - we spent 23 hours of every day locked in our cells. With a bucket (they were still slopping out back then)

Did we riot? Did we hell. We put our heads down and did our bird. I'm quite frankly ashamed of the calibre of modern British criminals. They don't know their born.

I sense you are in a good place currently. Time for a novel.

I dunno who said "I hate writing, I love having written" but there's a lot of truth in it. Though the actual writing itself can be a tremendous buzz if it's going REALLY well. Usually not the case.

Bernice Rubens said "I feel unclean if I don't write. I don't love writing. But I love having written.”

A very under-rated writer. (Bernice, not SK Tremayne).

Carolus_Rex

TheScreamingEagles said:

rkrkrk said:

There was a discussion on here about Trident...
Do we need a different system that is more independent of the US?

The level of military knowledge on here seems to a complete non-expert like me to be very high so interested to hear views.

(Assuming you accept the premise that Trump is not a friend of the UK)

I've always wanted a plane based nuclear deterrent.

The Americans cancelled Skybolt....

PAW

Didn't the IMF want debt forgiveness for Greece, and not get it. The EU runs Greece and EU Germany has money. It is as if the UK government were asking IMF support for Corby. I can't see any reason for the IMF to involve itself. It is being asked to send money while the EU refuses to reform its ways.

david_herdson

OldKingCole said:

mwadams said:

SeanT said:

Does Trump have a grudge against Germany?

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/824564320176594945

He's seen "Saving Private Ryan" and blames Angela Merkel for the death of Tom Hanks.

Wasn’t his grandfather (or possiblly gt grandfather) banned from one of the Germany states for refusing to do miltary service?

Edit: Thought so;found a reference https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/21/trump-grandfather-friedrich-banished-germany-historian-royal-decree

Runs in the family. (Bill) Clinton got a load of stick for draft-dodging but Trump - born the same year - managed to escape Vietnam as well. With everything else, it never got much traction as an attack line (and obviously, Hillary wasn't best-placed to make it).

dr_spyn

rkrkrk said:

There was a discussion on here about Trident...
Do we need a different system that is more independent of the US?

The level of military knowledge on here seems to a complete non-expert like me to be very high so interested to hear views.

(Assuming you accept the premise that Trump is not a friend of the UK)

Cost of systems, look up Blue Streak (wrong propellant - liquid fuels), need for silos (where could they go?). Blue Steel airborne, needed Vulcan to carry it, required airbases & dispersal sites. Both ate up comparatively large sums in the 1950s.

1960 Britain decides to join US with Skybolt project, air launched by V Bombers. Kennedy cancels it. Big row over nature of deterrent, and dependence on US 1962.

Which is easier to hide, a submerged vessel with 16 missiles, or 8 bombers with 2?

OldKingCole

SeanT said:

OldKingCole said:

mwadams said:

SeanT said:

Does Trump have a grudge against Germany?

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/824564320176594945

He's seen "Saving Private Ryan" and blames Angela Merkel for the death of Tom Hanks.

Wasn’t his grandfather (or possiblly gt grandfather) banned from one of the Germany states for refusing to do miltary service?

Edit: Thought so;found a reference https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/21/trump-grandfather-friedrich-banished-germany-historian-royal-decree

Hah. That's interesting. He's clearly a man who remembers slights and likes revenge, maybe this goes back a few generations. Let's hope the Scots were nice to his granny, or whoever it was.

Arte we about to revisit The Clearances?

Theuniondivvie

Let's hope some of Tessy's Spads have read The Art Of The Deal.

https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/824520092092432384

david_herdson

MikeSmithson said:

david_herdson said:

Lib Dems are 50/1 for Stoke. Mike has form with tipping 50/1 bets and there might actually be a bit of value there - we live in such a state of flux that what ought to be impossible isn't. But for all that, I don't expect the Lib Dems to come close.

Oh, and first, because I'm worth it.

I've £20 on at 50/1. I don't expect to win but can envisage the situation where they do so. LAB choosing a strong LEAVER is a gift that the highly accomplished LD team will exploit. It blocks out any notion of a progressive alliance.

I thought that the Lab choice voted remain and that the notorious tweet was more poking fun at the vacuous Brexit variants?

But I agree with the basic premise that while the Lib Dems are unlikely to win, it is possible to see a route. It'll be hard though: they need to persuade Labour Remainers to switch despite the risk that that move would make of letting UKIP in.

SouthamObserver

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

Does Trump have a grudge against Germany?

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/824564320176594945

He wants to destroy the EU. If he can get at Germany he is more likely to achieve this. It would, of course, be catastrophic for the UK economy were that to happen.

No, I don't think it's anything as complex or grand as that. I doubt he has a real opinion on the EU either way, apart from thinking it doesn't work very well, and the Merkel migrant thing was massively stupid (and he's right on both counts).

Remember he's a rampant, frothing narcissist. I reckon he's just insulted that the Germans have been so cool to him, even after the inauguration. Whereas the Brits have changed their tune.

That said, President Trump can turn personal grudges into geopolitical strategies, and he does, so the Germans can possibly expect hostile actions.

The Germans are certainly gearing up for American aggression, but the Single Market shields them somewhat. And by pulling out of Asia, Trump leaves the way open for the EU. This is his problem with the EU - as a trading bloc it has the heft to cause problems to his America First policies. Far, far better for him to have Europe as a collection of individual countries that the US can dictate to. That's why he is such a fan of Brexit, of course: isolated, the UK will have to take whatever trade deal the US tells us to, or we will get nothing at all.

Pulpstar

If my colleague's comment is anything to go by, Trump may well "sort out" Pyongyang before his presidency is over.

williamglenn

Theuniondivvie said:

Let's hope some of Tessy's Spads have read The Art Of The Deal.

They've probably listened to too many anti-Trump Republicans and convinced themselves that Trump is the one who desperately needs a deal with us...

Nigelb

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

fpt for NPXMP

Um, when I did my stint in Wormwood Scrubs prison in the late 1980s, "23 hour lock up" was the norm - we spent 23 hours of every day locked in our cells. With a bucket (they were still slopping out back then)

Did we riot? Did we hell. We put our heads down and did our bird. I'm quite frankly ashamed of the calibre of modern British criminals. They don't know their born.

Yer what? Have you forgotten the Strangeways riot and the other prison riots of that era that led to the Lord Wolff inquiry into prisons that led to major prison reform.

A different prison, so it doesn't count ?
:-)
Prison numbers have doubled since then.

isam

david_herdson said:

MikeSmithson said:

david_herdson said:

Lib Dems are 50/1 for Stoke. Mike has form with tipping 50/1 bets and there might actually be a bit of value there - we live in such a state of flux that what ought to be impossible isn't. But for all that, I don't expect the Lib Dems to come close.

Oh, and first, because I'm worth it.

I've £20 on at 50/1. I don't expect to win but can envisage the situation where they do so. LAB choosing a strong LEAVER is a gift that the highly accomplished LD team will exploit. It blocks out any notion of a progressive alliance.

I thought that the Lab choice voted remain and that the notorious tweet was more poking fun at the vacuous Brexit variants?

But I agree with the basic premise that while the Lib Dems are unlikely to win, it is possible to see a route. It'll be hard though: they need to persuade Labour Remainers to switch despite the risk that that move would make of letting UKIP in.

It is quite incredible that EU supporters who voted Remain at the referendum are now regarded as "Strong Leavers" because they accept the result.

glw

Pulpstar said:

France would make sense, we're two similiar sized (Pop wise) nations with broadly similiar sized economies - it would also be a good move in soft diplomatic terms ingratiating ourselves in a vital aspect with one of the big two in a post-Brexit EU.

We are working with the French on some aspects of the warhead simulation and nuclear materials side of things, but why we would want to give up access to US missiles is beyond me. We simply could not do better at a lower cost.

logical_song

isam said:

david_herdson said:

MikeSmithson said:

david_herdson said:

Lib Dems are 50/1 for Stoke. Mike has form with tipping 50/1 bets and there might actually be a bit of value there - we live in such a state of flux that what ought to be impossible isn't. But for all that, I don't expect the Lib Dems to come close.

Oh, and first, because I'm worth it.

I've £20 on at 50/1. I don't expect to win but can envisage the situation where they do so. LAB choosing a strong LEAVER is a gift that the highly accomplished LD team will exploit. It blocks out any notion of a progressive alliance.

I thought that the Lab choice voted remain and that the notorious tweet was more poking fun at the vacuous Brexit variants?

But I agree with the basic premise that while the Lib Dems are unlikely to win, it is possible to see a route. It'll be hard though: they need to persuade Labour Remainers to switch despite the risk that that move would make of letting UKIP in.

It is quite incredible that EU supporters who voted Remain at the referendum are now regarded as "Strong Leavers" because they accept the result.

Agreed, 'reluctant leavers' would be nearer the mark. I would imagine that most of those would want a 'soft' Brexit.

rottenborough

This is music to my ears - let's roll:

"What began as a high-minded discussion about how to position the Democratic Party against President Donald Trump appears to be nearing its conclusion. The bulk of the party has settled on a scorched-earth, not-now-not-ever model of opposition.

In legislative proposals, campaign promises, donor pitches and even in some Senate hearings, Democrats have opted for a hard-line, give-no-quarter posture, a reflection of a seething party base that will have it no other way."

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/democrats-trump-strategy-234206

Nigelb

Pulpstar said:

rkrkrk said:

david_herdson said:

rkrkrk said:

There was a discussion on here about Trident...
Do we need a different system that is more independent of the US?

The level of military knowledge on here seems to a complete non-expert like me to be very high so interested to hear views.

(Assuming you accept the premise that Trump is not a friend of the UK)

Whether or not Trump is a friend of the UK, it should be clear from Bush's unilateralism, Obama's Angloscepticism and Trump's mavereickness that the US cannot be relied upon to perceive itself to share Britain's strategic interests in the way that it did when the original Polaris deal was done and then the subsequent Trident ones. So yes, I think we probably do need either an entirely independent one or one that is - ironically given other events - shared with the French.

Interesting.
French because we are so geographically close?

France would make sense, we're two similiar sized (Pop wise) nations with broadly similiar sized economies - it would also be a good move in soft diplomatic terms ingratiating ourselves in a vital aspect with one of the big two in a post-Brexit EU.

There aren't really any other choices, given that Russia, China and Israel are probably the only others with sufficiently reliable technology for SLBMs.
We probably ought to have jointly developed carriers with them, too, as then we'd have had the Rafale as an insurance against the navalised F35 proving a bust.

dr_spyn

Bill on Article 50.

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/824592972574584833

mwadams

OldKingCole said:

SeanT said:

OldKingCole said:

mwadams said:

SeanT said:

Does Trump have a grudge against Germany?

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/824564320176594945

He's seen "Saving Private Ryan" and blames Angela Merkel for the death of Tom Hanks.

Wasn’t his grandfather (or possiblly gt grandfather) banned from one of the Germany states for refusing to do miltary service?

Edit: Thought so;found a reference https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/21/trump-grandfather-friedrich-banished-germany-historian-royal-decree

Hah. That's interesting. He's clearly a man who remembers slights and likes revenge, maybe this goes back a few generations. Let's hope the Scots were nice to his granny, or whoever it was.

Arte we about to revisit The Clearances?

To make way for massive Trump golf courses?

logical_song

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

Does Trump have a grudge against Germany?

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/824564320176594945

He wants to destroy the EU. If he can get at Germany he is more likely to achieve this. It would, of course, be catastrophic for the UK economy were that to happen.

No, I don't think it's anything as complex or grand as that. I doubt he has a real opinion on the EU either way, apart from thinking it doesn't work very well, and the Merkel migrant thing was massively stupid (and he's right on both counts).

Remember he's a rampant, frothing narcissist. I reckon he's just insulted that the Germans have been so cool to him, even after the inauguration. Whereas the Brits have changed their tune.

That said, President Trump can turn personal grudges into geopolitical strategies, and he does, so the Germans can possibly expect hostile actions.

The Germans are certainly gearing up for American aggression, but the Single Market shields them somewhat. And by pulling out of Asia, Trump leaves the way open for the EU. This is his problem with the EU - as a trading bloc it has the heft to cause problems to his America First policies. Far, far better for him to have Europe as a collection of individual countries that the US can dictate to. That's why he is such a fan of Brexit, of course: isolated, the UK will have to take whatever trade deal the US tells us to, or we will get nothing at all.

Yes, it's 'America First', nobody not even The Netherlands, second.

SandyRentool

dr_spyn said:

Bill on Article 50.

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/824592972574584833

Well that is definitely the first time I have read a government Bill from start to finish!

david_herdson

williamglenn said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Let's hope some of Tessy's Spads have read The Art Of The Deal.

They've probably listened to too many anti-Trump Republicans and convinced themselves that Trump is the one who desperately needs a deal with us...

Trump does need a deal with *someone*, in order to prove that he is indeed the great dealmaker. There is leverage there (although also considerable dangers).

FWIW, I don't think that a deal can be done with the US that both Congress and Parliament would accept.

rottenborough

dr_spyn said:

Bill on Article 50.

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/824592972574584833

Surely the short title should be 'Brexit Act'?

rottenborough

SeanT said:

isam said:

david_herdson said:

MikeSmithson said:

david_herdson said:

Lib Dems are 50/1 for Stoke. Mike has form with tipping 50/1 bets and there might actually be a bit of value there - we live in such a state of flux that what ought to be impossible isn't. But for all that, I don't expect the Lib Dems to come close.

Oh, and first, because I'm worth it.

I've £20 on at 50/1. I don't expect to win but can envisage the situation where they do so. LAB choosing a strong LEAVER is a gift that the highly accomplished LD team will exploit. It blocks out any notion of a progressive alliance.

I thought that the Lab choice voted remain and that the notorious tweet was more poking fun at the vacuous Brexit variants?

But I agree with the basic premise that while the Lib Dems are unlikely to win, it is possible to see a route. It'll be hard though: they need to persuade Labour Remainers to switch despite the risk that that move would make of letting UKIP in.

It is quite incredible that EU supporters who voted Remain at the referendum are now regarded as "Strong Leavers" because they accept the result.

I think Mike S, Our Genial Host, has completely misinterpreted the Labour candidate's position on Brexit.

John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul 2m2 minutes ago

Labour cand for Stoke @gareth_snell: 9th by-election cand since Corbyn supporters overran party. They haven't yet selected one of their own.

williamglenn

dr_spyn said:

Bill on Article 50.

The deadline has been removed from the previous draft.

dr_spyn

rottenborough said:

dr_spyn said:

Bill on Article 50.

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/824592972574584833

Surely the short title should be 'Brexit Act'?

rottenborough said:

dr_spyn said:

Bill on Article 50.

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/824592972574584833

Surely the short title should be 'Brexit Act'?

Brexit Act 1?

isam

https://twitter.com/gareth_snell/status/824229458940989442

edmundintokyo

david_herdson said:

Trump does need a deal with *someone*, in order to prove that he is indeed the great dealmaker. There is leverage there (although also considerable dangers).

He has a lot of options for bilateral deals, not least since there are a bunch of countries that were all ready to sign the TPP. In Japan the government has already paid most of the political price to get it through, and they're not particularly keen on letting China take over the global hegemony role that America just gave up.

Big_G_NorthWales

logical_song said:

isam said:

david_herdson said:

MikeSmithson said:

david_herdson said:

Lib Dems are 50/1 for Stoke. Mike has form with tipping 50/1 bets and there might actually be a bit of value there - we live in such a state of flux that what ought to be impossible isn't. But for all that, I don't expect the Lib Dems to come close.

Oh, and first, because I'm worth it.

I've £20 on at 50/1. I don't expect to win but can envisage the situation where they do so. LAB choosing a strong LEAVER is a gift that the highly accomplished LD team will exploit. It blocks out any notion of a progressive alliance.

I thought that the Lab choice voted remain and that the notorious tweet was more poking fun at the vacuous Brexit variants?

But I agree with the basic premise that while the Lib Dems are unlikely to win, it is possible to see a route. It'll be hard though: they need to persuade Labour Remainers to switch despite the risk that that move would make of letting UKIP in.

It is quite incredible that EU supporters who voted Remain at the referendum are now regarded as "Strong Leavers" because they accept the result.

Agreed, 'reluctant leavers' would be nearer the mark. I would imagine that most of those would want a 'soft' Brexit.

Not me - lets leave completely asap

SimonStClare

dr_spyn said:

Bill on Article 50.

ttps://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/824592972574584833

"The bill is indeed very short."

Not much gets past Mr Cole! – Just a two liner, as Smithson Jnr and others predicted.

rkrkrk

SandyRentool said:

dr_spyn said:

Bill on Article 50.

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/824592972574584833

Well that is definitely the first time I have read a government Bill from start to finish!

I thought it would be to invoke article 50... But it's actually to give the PM the power to do so.
Maybe that doesn't matter.

It's also written in such a way that if it turns out a50 is reversible... It doesn't say PM has the power to reverse it?

Richard_Tyndall

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

Does Trump have a grudge against Germany?

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/824564320176594945

He wants to destroy the EU. If he can get at Germany he is more likely to achieve this. It would, of course, be catastrophic for the UK economy were that to happen.

No, I don't think it's anything as complex or grand as that. I doubt he has a real opinion on the EU either way, apart from thinking it doesn't work very well, and the Merkel migrant thing was massively stupid (and he's right on both counts).

Remember he's a rampant, frothing narcissist. I reckon he's just insulted that the Germans have been so cool to him, even after the inauguration. Whereas the Brits have changed their tune.

That said, President Trump can turn personal grudges into geopolitical strategies, and he does, so the Germans can possibly expect hostile actions.

The Germans are certainly gearing up for American aggression, but the Single Market shields them somewhat. And by pulling out of Asia, Trump leaves the way open for the EU. This is his problem with the EU - as a trading bloc it has the heft to cause problems to his America First policies. Far, far better for him to have Europe as a collection of individual countries that the US can dictate to. That's why he is such a fan of Brexit, of course: isolated, the UK will have to take whatever trade deal the US tells us to, or we will get nothing at all.

The EU as a trading bloc is a dead dog. It is a very mature market where the chances of radically increasing trade are extremely limited. Asia is the big emerging market and Africa will follow suit eventually. the EU will be left far behind as a protectionist backwater.

SandyRentool

rkrkrk said:

SandyRentool said:

dr_spyn said:

Bill on Article 50.

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/824592972574584833

Well that is definitely the first time I have read a government Bill from start to finish!

I thought it would be to invoke article 50... But it's actually to give the PM the power to do so.
Maybe that doesn't matter.

It's also written in such a way that if it turns out a50 is reversible... It doesn't say PM has the power to reverse it?

Clearly I read it, but didn't read into it...

williamglenn

Richard_Tyndall said:

The EU as a trading bloc is a dead dog. It is a very mature market where the chances of radically increasing trade are extremely limited. Asia is the big emerging market and Africa will follow suit eventually. the EU will be left far behind as a protectionist backwater.

Do you disagree with Mr Smithson Jr's assessment of the EU's level of protectionism?

SouthamObserver

Richard_Tyndall said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

Does Trump have a grudge against Germany?

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/824564320176594945

He wants to destroy the EU. If he can get at Germany he is more likely to achieve this. It would, of course, be catastrophic for the UK economy were that to happen.

No, I don't think it's anything as complex or grand as that. I doubt he has a real opinion on the EU either way, apart from thinking it doesn't work very well, and the Merkel migrant thing was massively stupid (and he's right on both counts).

Remember he's a rampant, frothing narcissist. I reckon he's just insulted that the Germans have been so cool to him, even after the inauguration. Whereas the Brits have changed their tune.

That said, President Trump can turn personal grudges into geopolitical strategies, and he does, so the Germans can possibly expect hostile actions.

The Germans are certainly gearing up for American aggression, but the Single Market shields them somewhat. And by pulling out of Asia, Trump leaves the way open for the EU. This is his problem with the EU - as a trading bloc it has the heft to cause problems to his America First policies. Far, far better for him to have Europe as a collection of individual countries that the US can dictate to. That's why he is such a fan of Brexit, of course: isolated, the UK will have to take whatever trade deal the US tells us to, or we will get nothing at all.

The EU as a trading bloc is a dead dog. It is a very mature market where the chances of radically increasing trade are extremely limited. Asia is the big emerging market and Africa will follow suit eventually. the EU will be left far behind as a protectionist backwater.

Almost all countries and trading blocs are protectionist - and will continue to be so. The Single Market is where we send over 40% of our exports. That may change over time, but it will not do so rapidly. And being a part of it means that all times - whatever happens elsewhere - we have full access to over 500 million potential customers. That is a good place from which to start and we will get nothing like it from any other trading arrangement we may negotiate. I accept that there are good reasons to leave the EU, but improving our trading potential is not one of them.

rkrkrk

So the act gives PM the right to invoke A50. Not sure whether it's important- but that does mean that she could decide to delay invoking if she felt she needed more time.

Richard_Tyndall

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The EU as a trading bloc is a dead dog. It is a very mature market where the chances of radically increasing trade are extremely limited. Asia is the big emerging market and Africa will follow suit eventually. the EU will be left far behind as a protectionist backwater.

Do you disagree with Mr Smithson Jr's assessment of the EU's level of protectionism?

I am saying it will become more protectionist as it becomes less and less relevant. The EU market is past its sell by date as far as significant growth is concerned. It is sclerotic and unable to adapt and the future lies with the rest of the world. I think Trump has made a mistake (amongst many others) antagonising the emerging Pacific markets so quickly.

Scott_P

@jessicaelgot: I understand there are at least two shadow cabinet members who are seriously considering defying Labour's three line whip on Article 50 bill

Sunil_Prasannan

rottenborough said:

dr_spyn said:

Bill on Article 50.

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/824592972574584833

Surely the short title should be 'Brexit Act'?

"Brexit is Brexit!"

Pulpstar

Richard_Tyndall said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

Does Trump have a grudge against Germany?

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/824564320176594945

He wants to destroy the EU. If he can get at Germany he is more likely to achieve this. It would, of course, be catastrophic for the UK economy were that to happen.

No, I don't think it's anything as complex or grand as that. I doubt he has a real opinion on the EU either way, apart from thinking it doesn't work very well, and the Merkel migrant thing was massively stupid (and he's right on both counts).

Remember he's a rampant, frothing narcissist. I reckon he's just insulted that the Germans have been so cool to him, even after the inauguration. Whereas the Brits have changed their tune.

That said, President Trump can turn personal grudges into geopolitical strategies, and he does, so the Germans can possibly expect hostile actions.

The Germans are certainly gearing up for American aggression, but the Single Market shields them somewhat. And by pulling out of Asia, Trump leaves the way open for the EU. This is his problem with the EU - as a trading bloc it has the heft to cause problems to his America First policies. Far, far better for him to have Europe as a collection of individual countries that the US can dictate to. That's why he is such a fan of Brexit, of course: isolated, the UK will have to take whatever trade deal the US tells us to, or we will get nothing at all.

The EU as a trading bloc is a dead dog. It is a very mature market where the chances of radically increasing trade are extremely limited. Asia is the big emerging market and Africa will follow suit eventually. the EU will be left far behind as a protectionist backwater.

Sorry but this reminds me of the whole "Texas trending Democrat" situation in the USA.

SouthamObserver

rottenborough said:

SeanT said:

isam said:

david_herdson said:

MikeSmithson said:

david_herdson said:

Lib Dems are 50/1 for Stoke. Mike has form with tipping 50/1 bets and there might actually be a bit of value there - we live in such a state of flux that what ought to be impossible isn't. But for all that, I don't expect the Lib Dems to come close.

Oh, and first, because I'm worth it.

I've £20 on at 50/1. I don't expect to win but can envisage the situation where they do so. LAB choosing a strong LEAVER is a gift that the highly accomplished LD team will exploit. It blocks out any notion of a progressive alliance.

I thought that the Lab choice voted remain and that the notorious tweet was more poking fun at the vacuous Brexit variants?

But I agree with the basic premise that while the Lib Dems are unlikely to win, it is possible to see a route. It'll be hard though: they need to persuade Labour Remainers to switch despite the risk that that move would make of letting UKIP in.

It is quite incredible that EU supporters who voted Remain at the referendum are now regarded as "Strong Leavers" because they accept the result.

I think Mike S, Our Genial Host, has completely misinterpreted the Labour candidate's position on Brexit.

John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul 2m2 minutes ago

Labour cand for Stoke @gareth_snell: 9th by-election cand since Corbyn supporters overran party. They haven't yet selected one of their own.

If Corbynistas want to have Corbynista Parliamentary candidates they need to turn off their computers and start turning up to CLP meetings. Until they do, the moderates will prevail in most constituencies.

Scott_P

@jessicaelgot: Understand no front bench resignations are imminent, but they are possible. Depends how tough leadership prepared to be.

david_herdson

edmundintokyo said:

david_herdson said:

Trump does need a deal with *someone*, in order to prove that he is indeed the great dealmaker. There is leverage there (although also considerable dangers).

He has a lot of options for bilateral deals, not least since there are a bunch of countries that were all ready to sign the TPP. In Japan the government has already paid most of the political price to get it through, and they're not particularly keen on letting China take over the global hegemony role that America just gave up.

China's population is five times that of the US. They can no more prevent it than Britain could prevent the US ultimately rising to global dominance (intervention in the Civil War aside).

williamglenn

rkrkrk said:

So the act gives PM the right to invoke A50. Not sure whether it's important- but that does mean that she could decide to delay invoking if she felt she needed more time.

Also, if we ended up not leaving, is this a permanent power grab by the PM that would allow them to invoke Article 50 on a whim at any time in the future?

Sandpit

SandyRentool said:

dr_spyn said:

Bill on Article 50.

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/824592972574584833

Well that is definitely the first time I have read a government Bill from start to finish!

Yep, the two line Bill exactly as it needs to be.

Any amendment about negotiating positions is out of scope of the Bill, it's purely that we should respect the view of the People and start the process of leaving the EU.

Blue_rog

Scott_P said:

@jessicaelgot: I understand there are at least two shadow cabinet members who are seriously considering defying Labour's three line whip on Article 50 bill

so, sack and withdraw the whip

swing_voter

The EU as a trading bloc is a dead dog is a far too sweeping statement. as a trading bloc it is growing in terms of members and size - think of the achievements of the last 12 years - massive population growth (accession of Poland, Romania for example) and some cases of huge growth (Slovakia), to top it all a club that people want to join (Turkey). Sweeping generalisations about Asia (which part - Japan, India or Indonesia?) are you referring to - none of which are at all interested in free trade as we know it. To typify the EU as a dead dog is a gross simplification - it has its problems but a lack of expansion is not one of them

SouthamObserver

Scott_P said:

@jessicaelgot: Understand no front bench resignations are imminent, but they are possible. Depends how tough leadership prepared to be.

One may be Clive Lewis. That would be hugely significant.

edmundintokyo

david_herdson said:

edmundintokyo said:

david_herdson said:

Trump does need a deal with *someone*, in order to prove that he is indeed the great dealmaker. There is leverage there (although also considerable dangers).

He has a lot of options for bilateral deals, not least since there are a bunch of countries that were all ready to sign the TPP. In Japan the government has already paid most of the political price to get it through, and they're not particularly keen on letting China take over the global hegemony role that America just gave up.

China's population is five times that of the US. They can no more prevent it than Britain could prevent the US ultimately rising to global dominance (intervention in the Civil War aside).

Sure sure, but I mean specifically right now over trade. Basically the plan is to do
sed 's/USA/PRC/g' TPP.txt > RCEP.txt

Japan doesn't like this, but if the US won't work with them they may have to go along with it. (The situation's a lot like the UK with the EU, except if Germany was twice the size of everybody else.)

Slackbladder

The issues and problems are now way beyond Corbyn being crap.

SouthamObserver

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The EU as a trading bloc is a dead dog. It is a very mature market where the chances of radically increasing trade are extremely limited. Asia is the big emerging market and Africa will follow suit eventually. the EU will be left far behind as a protectionist backwater.

Do you disagree with Mr Smithson Jr's assessment of the EU's level of protectionism?

I am saying it will become more protectionist as it becomes less and less relevant. The EU market is past its sell by date as far as significant growth is concerned. It is sclerotic and unable to adapt and the future lies with the rest of the world. I think Trump has made a mistake (amongst many others) antagonising the emerging Pacific markets so quickly.

He's just ensured that China writes the rules in Asia from here on in. He may also end up pushing China and the EU closer together.

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/824599995097686017

Sunil_Prasannan

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

williamglenn said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The EU as a trading bloc is a dead dog. It is a very mature market where the chances of radically increasing trade are extremely limited. Asia is the big emerging market and Africa will follow suit eventually. the EU will be left far behind as a protectionist backwater.

Do you disagree with Mr Smithson Jr's assessment of the EU's level of protectionism?

I am saying it will become more protectionist as it becomes less and less relevant. The EU market is past its sell by date as far as significant growth is concerned. It is sclerotic and unable to adapt and the future lies with the rest of the world. I think Trump has made a mistake (amongst many others) antagonising the emerging Pacific markets so quickly.

He's just ensured that China writes the rules in Asia from here on in. He may also end up pushing China and the EU closer together.

EUSSR!

SandyRentool

SouthamObserver said:

rottenborough said:

SeanT said:

isam said:

david_herdson said:

MikeSmithson said:

david_herdson said:

Lib Dems are 50/1 for Stoke. Mike has form with tipping 50/1 bets and there might actually be a bit of value there - we live in such a state of flux that what ought to be impossible isn't. But for all that, I don't expect the Lib Dems to come close.

Oh, and first, because I'm worth it.

I've £20 on at 50/1. I don't expect to win but can envisage the situation where they do so. LAB choosing a strong LEAVER is a gift that the highly accomplished LD team will exploit. It blocks out any notion of a progressive alliance.

I thought that the Lab choice voted remain and that the notorious tweet was more poking fun at the vacuous Brexit variants?

But I agree with the basic premise that while the Lib Dems are unlikely to win, it is possible to see a route. It'll be hard though: they need to persuade Labour Remainers to switch despite the risk that that move would make of letting UKIP in.

It is quite incredible that EU supporters who voted Remain at the referendum are now regarded as "Strong Leavers" because they accept the result.

I think Mike S, Our Genial Host, has completely misinterpreted the Labour candidate's position on Brexit.

John Rentoul ‏@JohnRentoul 2m2 minutes ago

Labour cand for Stoke @gareth_snell: 9th by-election cand since Corbyn supporters overran party. They haven't yet selected one of their own.

If Corbynistas want to have Corbynista Parliamentary candidates they need to turn off their computers and start turning up to CLP meetings. Until they do, the moderates will prevail in most constituencies.

The next installment of the 'power struggle' in Leeds Central takes place tomorrow evening. Watch this space...

Richard_Tyndall

SouthamObserver said:

Almost all countries and trading blocs are protectionist - and will continue to be so. The Single Market is where we send over 40% of our exports. That may change over time, but it will not do so rapidly. And being a part of it means that all times - whatever happens elsewhere - we have full access to over 500 million potential customers. That is a good place from which to start and we will get nothing like it from any other trading arrangement we may negotiate. I accept that there are good reasons to leave the EU, but improving our trading potential is not one of them.

Yet another economic illiterate who thinks that 7% of the world's population should be more important for our future trade prospects than the other 93%. Membership of the EU actively hinders trade with the rest of the world. Being outside the Single Market will not significantly change the amount of trade we do with them but will allow us to make our own trade deals with the rest of the world.

In 20 years the EU's share of global trade has dropped from 30% to 24% and it will continue to shrink.

Sunil_Prasannan

swing_voter said:

The EU as a trading bloc is a dead dog is a far too sweeping statement. as a trading bloc it is growing in terms of members and size - think of the achievements of the last 12 years - massive population growth (accession of Poland, Romania for example) and some cases of huge growth (Slovakia), to top it all a club that people want to join (Turkey). Sweeping generalisations about Asia (which part - Japan, India or Indonesia?) are you referring to - none of which are at all interested in free trade as we know it. To typify the EU as a dead dog is a gross simplification - it has its problems but a lack of expansion is not one of them

EU nations: 28 27
non-EU nations*: 165 166

*UN members

John_M

rkrkrk said:

There was a discussion on here about Trident...
Do we need a different system that is more independent of the US?

The level of military knowledge on here seems to a complete non-expert like me to be very high so interested to hear views.

(Assuming you accept the premise that Trump is not a friend of the UK)

I did response on the previous thread in case you missed it!